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Warning: This site contains images and graphic descriptions of extreme violence and/or its effects. It's not as bad as it could be, but is meant to be shocking. Readers should be 18+ or a mature 17 or so. There is also some foul language occasionally, and potential for general upsetting of comforting conventional wisdom. Please view with discretion.
Showing posts with label Houla Massacre. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Houla Massacre. Show all posts

Friday, December 13, 2024

"Assad's Top Crimes" in Review...

...now that the likely perpetrators are suddenly in charge of all Syria's people.

December 13, 2024

(rough, incomplete)

last updates 12/15

Thoughts on the Fall of the Syrian Arab Republic

As all readers are probably aware, in recent days the longtime government of the Syrian Arab Republic has rather suddenly collapsed, allowing Idlib Islamists to somehow take every major city up to and including Damascus. Genocidal terrorists linked to Al Qaeda - supposedly reformed - now run the country. The axis of resistance to Israel has been broken, leaving Lebanon isolated as Palestine is being erased with the Gaza genocide and incoming president Trump's implied promise to let Israel annex the West Bank, besides Gaza. (He did take the money - Haaretz.com) To boot, many Palestine supporters are now distracted with celebrations and/or joining with Israel again to hate on Assad and cheer the fall of one of the staunchest state supporters of their cause.

I'm not at all happy with these developments. From 2012 to 2018 I made some quite serious (volunteer and self-directed) study of events in Syria. As I'll explain below, this work left me what many call an "Assadist." I was highly sympathetic with the government of Bashar al-Assad as it came under a foreign-backed dirty war using terrorist proxies staging false-flag massacres. The government didn't fall then, but Syria was severely injured, losing hundreds of thousands of people, and was left more carved-up than ever before; Idlib province was occupied by Al-Qaeda offshoot Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham (fka Jabhat al-Nusra) and run under strict sharia law - Syria's oil and wheat fields were occupied by the United States, on the notion that giving local Kurds autonomy from Syria while stealing Syria's oil and wheat was the only way to "stop ISIS" - the US under Trump illegally recognized Syria's illegal occupation of Syria's Golan Heights; it was Israel's sovereign territory according to the then-and-now boss of the world. 

Finally, the US congress imposed crippling economic sanctions on Syria in the name of "protecting civilians" there by preventing the country from rebuilding until the Assad government was deposed. Once Al Qaeda is in charge, ok, you can rebuild and have your lives back. Well, not quite the same lives, but ...

It was all fine to most people, considering how insanely evil the Assad regime was, butchering whole families, gassing villages and more in a desperate bid to crush or kill all the country's Sunni Muslim majority, starting with the most innocent. But this preposterous alleged plan would achieve nothing but sowing seeds of revenge, fueling the Sunni extremist insurgency. And as far as I can tell, opposition militants seem to have provided their own fuel here, in probably every single atrocious instance. 

Consider an incident from the Douma-Harasta area (unclear exactly) in August 2012 (All details here: https://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Douma_Hostage_Massacre) A Musab bin Omar Battalion, part of a Capitol Shield Brigade (app. Muslim Brotherhood connected, allied with Liwa/Jaish al-Islam at least) had 16 men captured after an "attack on one of the centers of Shabiha and the gangs of Assad" and perhaps also a police station. Here are the notorious killers waiting an unspecified justice, giving their names and ranks on prompt. 


They won't be allowed to signal to their families or reveal their location or any secrets they've witnessed, but I can almost see #5 Hassan Ismail saying with his pose "look at this distinctive Coca-Cola shirt they gave me. Remember it." These are all supposedly military men, captured on-base and presumably in uniform. If so, it's unclear why someone went to hassle of re-dressing them all in these distinctive civilian clothes. Seriously, why? 

Well, some grisly activist videos (since deleted) posted soon thereafter showed - by clothing and other matches - at least 6 of these same men (those w/red Xs above), dead with throats cut, on video as 16 (revised to just 12) local civilians kidnapped - in their civilian clothes there - and killed BY "Assad's forces." Assad's gangs would have to pay for this crime, would hopefully be captured alive, killed and rebranded like this, revenged again, and so on. 

I start with this example because it's basically undeniable. The story was given credence even in a few mainstream media outlets (Tracey Shelton in Salon), and cannot really be challenged except with nonsense like this "trial by word salad." Credit for the original find on this story goes to German OSINT sleuth "Ursula Behr" who caught it right off in 2012, and had Syrian media pick it up from her. More an "Assadist" than I could ever be, she would later travel to Syria as she was dying of cancer, had her paintings put on display, and then passed away. She was buried in Syria at her request, and now she's still there even after Assad has left.

They actually did this kind of shit, and I think it was done widely all during the Dirty War. In fact, it can be essentially proven like this in a great many cases. The vilest acts may have all been done not by the government (actually elected, FWIW) that had to live in and govern Syria, but in a false-flag manner by the foreign-backed, takfiri terrorists; they were always the agents of chaos, working on this multinational program to break down, carve up, and consume Syria, as seems to be happening now. 

This seems like a rather evil but likely a winning strategy, if allowed to play out very long. The government had to give up on Douma by October, 2012; it was "liberated" like all of Syria now is, with Liwa al-Islam left in general control. That "liberation" and this particular Capitol Shield Brigade ended long ago after fighting half the world tried to complicate. But as far as I know, some of these same guys kept rolling with different groups to this day, and now help govern all of Syria and all of its people.  

I'll try to catch up some on the details of the fall, what transpired, how things evolve from here, and on emerging "proofs" of "Al-Assad's brutal rule" that are now being "discovered." (A Closer Look On Syria has been keeping some track, so I'll be starting there) I'm still open to the idea some of it might even be true, but I'll have to compare to the reality-based picture I have so far, which the reader can start to form from reading or just skimming this post.

There's been widespread celebration of the "new Syria" because, compared to the well-known crimes of the Assad regime, especially since the rebellion began in the "Arab Spring" of 2011, almost anything is seen as better. An endless river of accusation was almost universally accepted by hostile, Western governments, by other openly hostile forces, and even by ostensibly neutral and trustworthy agencies like human rights groups and bodies of the United Nations, the mass media and the general public (with some leading and some just led). Nonetheless, the best evidence suggests these agencies, the public and everyone got the story wrong, sometimes on purpose.

Here I'll try for a brief overview of several classes of alleged crimes of the "Assad regime":

* shooting protesters

* torturing and killing kids

* sectarian massacres

* bombardment massacres

* chemical attacks

* prisoner abuse and extermination

Each section is illustrated with select details from select cases, almost off the top of my head but with some needed review. I give a few links to scattered work, mainly at this blog. (at the links are piles of text often summarizing other piles), with hundreds of individual, primary citations I'm not going to recreate here. I'm not just "citing myself" with these links, just sticking to the stuff I can vouch for and locate easily. 

The cited work was done collaborating with others who bring their own expertise and knowledge in open-source research. We consider all available evidence, emphasizing the best primary source evidence (the visual record, the accounts of witnesses, especially ones conforming with and not contradictions the visual record, direct documentation of related government orders, etc.) not just to poke holes in the official narrative, but to discover, as possible, what actually did happen, we map out events in time and space, parse available reports and read between the lines for what isn't said, what doesn't make sense, etc. with often astonishing results, even as they're often incomplete, over-filled and under-edited. 

There are a lot of the great work by others out there (a few cited here), but the quality of the core information is mixed, and I didn't want to go digging. And I never personally absorbed all the brilliance at ACLOS and in comments here, and by now I've grown rusty on much of what I did. So this won't be adequate, but maybe close enough to be of some help. Some adds and improvements are likely.

why bother?

Why bother now that there's no sitting "Assad regime" to defend, or to cut me an imaginary paycheck, just a new government to raise the alarm about? I guess it's for the latter reason. We should probably be aware if evil and lies have won on such a grand scale in Syria, even if the new government doesn't start exterminating all the Alawites or mass-executing all loyalists of the deposed regime. Is it possible HTS have changed and wind up being cool, allowing open elections and so on? Even sticking up for the Palestinians? If there's a next time, a next country, maybe this kind of outcome should be avoided? Is there any way of fighting this, turning back the new status quo, maybe with mass civil disobedience by the betrayed Syrian people that ISN'T met with mass head-chopping, to topple this terrorist regime ASAP? 

I don't know. What do we do with this information now? It's just what I have and where we are. And still, it seems to me, too few people know these stories.

So FWIW, here's a review of what - as far as I can tell - happened last time, what all this unfinished business truly was and remains. I present a very dark vision of events no one needs to accept in full, but this is how I see what Syrian officials described in a top-secret document as "circumstances we are better off without." This is the hell Syrians won't want to go through again. This may be why some people there might agree to a quick surrender, as may have just happened, when faced with a new and maybe final round of the Dirty War.

More reading (Optional) in some external articles, here at Monitor on Massacre Marketing (cited as "Monitor" below), at the wiki I helped start A Closer Look On Syria (ACLOS) - and in some work with the Working Group on Syria, Propaganda, and Media (WGSPM) alongside Dr. Piers Robinson and other professional-level academic types (because I am one?), besides co-founding a now-defunct Citizen's Investigation Into War Crimes in Libya (and Syria, Ukraine, and Beyond) (CIWCL-SUB) with Petri Krohn, and some valuable informal collaborations, especially with Michael Kobs. Relevant posts at this blog: Syria Masterlist, last updated 2017:  I may update this, but other than quite a bit on the 2018 Douma chemical attack, I didn't add very much, so that plus Douma masterlist (and, since that's not complete either, tagged posts) could keep you reading almost forever. 

More than reading, (which is often a chore, sorry), this stuff should be saved in several places by people who care. I do and oversee brilliant work that's worth preserving, but I sometimes lose it and, in the current climate, it could even be made illegal or otherwise made to vanish. So things you can do with the info presented and linked below: read, skim, copy, paste, save, read other stuff & compare, double-check, improve, re-publish, add your own thoughts and your own magic.

Running Under it All: the "Assad Files"

I'll start with the "Assad Files" - some million pages of top-secret government documents seized by militants all across Syria. Not all of it is relevant, but the files are said by their curators to provide the best case for war crimes since Nuremberg. I had a pretty obsessive look at all the actual documents that were publicized - presumably selected as good examples - besides what people were saying about them. A good lot of rambling consideration, with links to original sources and quite a few interesting direct quotes: Assad Files masterlist - tagged posts.  

My strong impression is that these files are genuine and provide an accurate view of government response to a crisis gripping their country. However, as far as I've seen, the Assad Files reveal no clearly criminal orders, despite the public branding, and certainly nothing close support for the kind of atrocities widely alleged. A 2019 post considers a large sample of files (3,470 relevant pages) examined by SJAC ("Syrian Justice and Accountability Center") that apparently revealed no seriously criminal orders, and none has emerged anywhere else I've seen. This actually suggests, but far from proves, that no such orders were ever issued by Syrian authorities, probably because all of the most heinous crimes of the Dirty War were committed by the foreign-backed opposition militants.

As such, it will be interesting to compare these files with the documents likely to be "discovered" by the new government all across Syria and provided as proof of all the alleged crimes the real "Assad Files" somehow never mentioned. 

I penned one external article at 21st Century Wire: "Revolution Unraveled: ‘Assad Files’ Now an Achilles’ Heel for War Crimes Narrative" to explain how the "linchpin" of the case against Assad lodged by the CIJA ("Committee for International Justice and Accountability") was a seized document outlining a new "Crisis Management Cell" in August, 2011. The purpose of this was said to be targetting “protest organizers” and “those who tarnish the image of Syria in foreign media” for arrest, apparently just on those grounds, with no mention of what they planned to do about all the armed militants. However, a full copy of the document was shown to El Pais, and it revealed the real targets were actually those “wanted for the crimes of vandalism, killing, and assault on citizens and their properties and the government institutions,” as happened on a grand scale in Hama just a few days earlier. 

Among those violent people, they wanted “especially those” who were also involved in inciting or funding “demonstrations.” But as another document in the El País video shows, they were concerned with a type of "demonstrations" that involved “funding and armaments” whose origin they were curious about. I checked and there seems to be a real translation issue here. They don't use the usual word for protests: المظاهرات (almuzaharat) but rather التظاهرات (altazahurat) which Google Translate also turns to "demonstration" but with alternates readings: feint, simulation, pretense, or just "events" (from the base article here). I guess it's just a term the Syrian military used for this special kind of event, involving a "pretense" at protest along with real guns, that might have no single accurate translation. But we can see a few examples in the next section to get an idea.

An SJAC study of the files found document discussing Syrian troops detaining "family members to encourage suspects to turn themselves in." This is a pretty serious offense, but no details are given aside from this being one of several actions "soldiers were to cease" after deciding to do them, apparently, on their own. So there was no order found to kidnap innocent people, just the admission that it has happened, and the order to stop doing it.  Monitor on Massacre Marketing: A Clearer View on the "Assad Files" 

The Assad Files were used in the Marie Colvin case in 2019 to show command and control, who would be in charge of her killing, if the government had ordered it as alleged. There was no evidence that happened actually found anywhere in the files, suggesting it never happened, but some defector claims he witnessed the orders coming from the top and that was taken as good enough to consult the files for "who was at the top." (Monitor)

This all the CIJA and their ilk can do - show papers referring to officers and arrests and prisoners, then insert stories they were told, found no support for, and used anyway. As often as possible, they also cut to the visual proof of the "Casear photos." It's only the words of Caesar, other defectors and possibly unreliable witnesses that really link the photos and documents to alleged regime crimes. The documents themselves seem to provide little aside from black-and-white fluff to rest these dubious claims upon. More illustrations of this can be found below, as the Assad files come up by subject. The photos certainly add some terrible color. We'll consider these below, as the final topic.

2011: Shooting Protesters  

From March 2011 breathless reports spread far & wide claimed Assad's forces, Hezbollah, or others were shooting and killing peaceful protesters, as well as police, and regular citizens. Others report seeing shooting from the protester side, from rooftops and minarets, etc. as the government claimed. The top secret "Assad files" revealing the regime's orders should help clear this up.

A post half-done in 2021, and simply posted like that just the other day, looked at a publicized overview of several documents published by "Center for Justice and Accountability" (CJA and yes, that's a third cited group covering these files with "Justice and Accountability" in their name). As it happens, they found no orders to shoot and kill protesters, only reiterations not to shoot except in self-defense against armed gangs. 

An April 20, 2011 document referred to "Multi-faceted confrontation of demonstrators, saboteurs of security and vandals" - is that the full definition of "demonstrations"? Instructions on dealing with them include "Counter with weapons those who carry weapons against the state, while ensuring that civilians are not harmed." (v3 p104) Maybe that was code for "you know, do the opposite." August 19, 2011: "Ensure that no drop of blood is shed when confronting and dispersing peaceful demonstrations." (19/08/11 v1 p163) "Ensure that all elements hide their personal weapons, do not show it and do not shoot under any circumstances, except in extreme cases of self-defense. Make sure they use reason, wisdom, prudence and absorb and deal with the sedition in a way that preserves the prestige of the state. (30/03/11) Or maybe they meant "squander the prestige of the state on mindless killings, especially of the national majority group."

Sniper shootings of protesters, widely blamed on secret regime and Hezbollah elements, are acknowledged, with orders to stop and apprehend any of these snipers, if possible. In Hama, they reported May 6, 2011 "An unidentified sniper[sniped] on the rooftop of Mounekh mosque and another on the rooftop of a house off Umar Ibn Khattab Mosque shot demonstrators, killing one and injuring 43." (06/05/11 v3 p233) 04/05/11 Branch: Deir ez-Zor: "Our elements will keep on covering of our branch sector and will spread on the roofs of the building to stop the saboteurs from shooting the protestors. We are keen on tracking down those who incite others to demonstrate and carry out acts of rioting." v2 p95

When shooting deaths following a clash in Izraa on April 22, 2011, started by "an infiltrated entity" firing on security forces but with civilians somehow also killed, it was described as "a difficult day ... pushing us into circumstances we are better off without. If the directives previously issued had been adhered to we would have prevented bloodshed, and matters would not have come to this culmination." Indeed, 2 days earlier, they reminded everyone "ensuiring that civilians are not harmed" was a top priority. Recommended actions now included "Focusing on arresting inciters, especially those shooting at demonstrators (snipers or infiltrators)" and that "a sniper, inciter or infiltrator be presented to the public in a manner that convinced them, and earns their trust."

In June, 2011, some 120 Syrian soldiers were killed in Jisr al-Shughour, reportedly by their commanding officers and/or their Hezbollah bosses, when they refused to shoot at some peaceful Sunni protesters. (ACLOS). But it's also said they were killed, after their ammunition ran out and they became incapable of shooting, by a Turkish-backed local unit of a Free Officer's Movement (precursor to the FSA) that fled back to Turkey afterwards. In fact, the group's commander Hussein Harmoush bragged there of beheading all the Alawite soldiers to his (Alawite) Turkish MIT handler Önder Sığırcıkoğlu, who was so disgusted he had Harmoush smuggled back to Syria to appear on state TV and presumably face execution. For this act of treason against the Turkish state,  Sığırcıkoğlu was publicly tried and imprisoned, then broken out by some capable admirers, and remained in hiding last I heard. (see here) So yeah ... the proto-FSA butchered those soldiers, not commanding officers, Hezbollah, or any other Shi'ite boogeymen. 

Assad Files: did the regime forces order protesters killed or massacre their own? No mention of such an order or event. Behind closed doors, they only say the same thing they told world, to widespread yawns; foreign-backed terrorists were butchering their boys, besides massively lying about it. At Jisr al Shughour, they said in secret, a first mass grave with 12 soldiers was found, "killed by the armed gangs after their ammunition ran out ... their bodies had been desecrated and their heads and limbs cut off." 

That was June, 2011, not 3 months into the "peaceful" uprising, just as army defectors like Harmoush were moving to finally "offer the protesters some protection." It went downhill from there as the FSA then Jabhat al-Nusra and others, then ISIS swelled, partly on the back of sectarian lies like those about the Jisr al-Shughour Massacre of dissenting soldiers. 

2011: Torturing and Killing Kids

Assad files: SJAC's sample of 3,470 pages includes reference to 6 children detained (presumably all teenagers, but ages not given). Two were taken in for insulting Assad, and one for being in a protest - arrests we could well question - while the other 3 teenagers (b. 1997-1999) were arrested in 2014 for more militant crimes (training to shoot, joining in attacks, filming attacks, suspicious surveillance of pro-government civilians, etc.). There was no mention of any of them being tortured or killed in custody or of any remotely related order. 

There's also reference to one boy killed in Deir Ezzour, not in custody but in clashes, quite likely after his training as an opposition child soldier was not interrupted early, as with those other 3. Maybe some of these bemoaned arrests wound up saving the detainee's life. 

Back on April 29, 2011, dozens of men and 3 boys (age 12, 15, 17) were allegedly detained from a mobile protest near Saida, Hama, after security forces opened fire on them for no reason. Some 50 were reported killed in a "Saida massacre," some on that day and others allegedly killed under torture in regime detention. 12-year-old Hamza Al-Khatib is the most famous of these, with a detailed story of how he was held and tortured for nearly a month, beaten and shackled, bizarrely bloated up with fluids and finally castrated before he was shot dead. The government, in contrast, claimed Hamza's body was found after the shooting on 4/29, somehow left naked and unidentified, and was held in refrigeration ever since. 

report: lost then found but needing reposted - overview post here: https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2016/04/re-considering-hamza-al-khatib-and.html

Hamza's body was released to his family on May 25, having allegedly been killed that same day. But what some call bruises and torture-related bloating on his body are clearly signs of decay, probably equating to a month in refrigeration, like the government said. Several other late-released bodies show the same kind of decay, starting with a green spot on the belly and spreading to darken the whole body in the latest case. This all suggests the "Saida massacre" was a one-day event that remains quite murky. Whatever happened to Hamza's penis (unclear/disputed) was probably done before the government found the body. Other bodies show various signs of torture as well; 15-year-old Thamer had a mangled face as if hit with a claw hammer, before he even went in the fridge and had his belly slowly shift yellow-green and his wounds black. He was also reportedly "bludgeoned" in the genitals (Amnesty). An older man, Mahmoud al-Zoubi, was found to have died from a heart attack resulting from "torture," also prior to his appearing naked after the shooting. His face would also appear as one of the earliest entries in the "Caesar photos" of unidentified bodies (see below) - perhaps a telling inclusion (Monitor).

2012: Sectarian Massacres

From the beginning, more heavily in 2012, and rarely after that, Syrian forces were accused of grisly massacres of civilians along sectarian lines, in literally hundreds of cases, each killing a few to over 100 civilians. With Syrian military support, as the story tended to go, Alawite "Shabiha" death squads would murder entire Sunni Muslim families based on religion alone. 

Assad Files: no orders to carry out such massacre has ever been mentioned. Instead, they say things like "We should not turn any of our fellow citizens into enemies" because, as put elsewhere, "We are all in the same boat," a boat called Syria.  https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-clearer-view-on-assad-files.html

SJAC found nothing about sectarian tensions in the files except, I presume, many orders to avoid it, which SJAC ignored, and one hybrid case where a government policy led to deadly tensions until another policy corrected that trend they considered negative.Security forces had decided to use knowledgeable, largely Alawite locals to identify people (mainly Sunni) for arrest, leading to revenge kidnappings and maybe counter-kidnappings until "reciprocal sectarian kidnappings and killings peaked in Homs" in a crisis the government wanted resolved. So they decided "The use of civilians at some checkpoints to openly select targets" was to be banned. Authorities were urged instead to "use covert security methods that do not incite hatred and tension among the citizens." 

So, again, even in secret, Syrian officials can only be seen working to lessen tensions and minimize the chance for strife, which other parties were working to instill in Syria in those days. "Christians to Beirut, Alawites to the Grave" was a popular chant at anti-Assad rallies in these days. 

But somewhere even more secret, they must have decided to make most Syrians their enemies and to try and kill them all, in barbaric and shocking way when possible, judging by the widely-accepted narrative of, for example, the infamous Houla Massacre of May 25, 2012. ACLOS page linking to a number of detailed sub-pages. I had 2 PDF reports posted to my old CIWCL page that I let expire - with CE's helps, now reposted at ACLOS: 

Alleged: 108 Sunnis killed at random, including a few opposition fighters but mainly whole families of civilians, including 49 children. (However, a list made from other lists correlated has 9 opposition fighters killed besides 112 civilians, including 64 children.) They were killed, as reported, by army shelling and home invasion massacres by Alawite "Shabiha," in the "liberated" and 100% Sunni "town" of Al-Houla, after the small FSA force had fled, hoping their absence could ease the shelling. Instead, they say, the FSA absence allowed another Shabiha massacre, by Alawite butchers recruited from nearby villages. 

In fact, the massacre happened in Taldou, the last part of the Houla region still secured by the government as of May 25, when reinforced local Islamists attacked and took or circumvented at least some - and probably all - the town's security posts, killing several soldiers. Despite their efforts to conceal this truth, careful analysis of the opposition-supplied videos shows rebels taking over on that day, engaging in clashes inside the once-secured area. Security scene map:

The water co. post (lower right, on a hill overlooking the town) was never overrun, but attacked, pinned-down and circumvented. Best evidence has all other security posts taken: UN investigation even agrees on the roundabout post ("overrun," allowing potential terrorist access to the bulk of victims on Saad rd.) and MIHQ ("likely overrun), in their likely pre-planned offensive that day. The investigators didn't seem to care the arches post was just a truck that wouldn't stop anyone for long, and didn't notice that the national hospital seems to be on fire and belching smoke by sunset, when it was reportedly overrun along with the army post there, and then set on fire. Army snipers at the hospital were the UN's main basis for ruling out a rebel massacre on Saad Road - the snipers would've stopped that. But those guys were likely killed, so ... yeah. And there was a massacre there by someone just then.   

The massacre happened in these newly liberated areas, on Saad road and Main Street, immediately after the liberation. The witnesses who correctly describe "the battle for the Houla Massacre" say the victors killed - in a very targeted way - Sunnis who converted to Shi'ism (Abdulrazaq families, the bulk of those killed) and Sunnis who supported the government (2 families named Al-Sayed). The family butchers came in after the FSA, these witnesses said, like their upside-down version of "Shabiha," wearing black, and suspected of being with Al Qaeda (Jabhat al-Nusra was either unformed or little-known at the time). Children had their heads sliced open, their jaws torn off, and more. 

An "Alawite family Shomaliya" also reported killed in the Houla massacre was apparently a confused reference to a next-day massacre in the not-so-close Alawite village al-Shumariyeh. Syrian state TV did show some grisly scenes of at least one family executed in their living room, presumably in that village. Shumariyeh Massacre - A Closer Look On Syria

So many I've looked into, I'm skipping a lot. Just to give an idea of the scale, my post on Homs Massacres, 2011-2013 has numerous shady stories compiled, with no summary here, just from Syria's #3 city Homs. https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/06/syria-homs-massacres.html

Al-Bayda and Baniyas massacres of Sunnis, May 2013: With the later, massive and grisly Banyas massacre being far murkier, I've focused on the all-Sunni village of Al-Bayda, where there's also more information to work with (the opposition seemingly wanted us to focus on this one and let it shape our idea of Baniyas, which happened in a district of the Sunni-majority city that's unusually mixed = possible massacre of Alawites or other minorities). Some 70+ civilians were killed on May 2 in Al-Bayda just for being Sunni, following a "Shabiha" raid in response to a fatal rebel attack on other "Shabiha" in the pre-dawn hours. 

Or, as some videos might show, the killing happened hours before that raid, in the same pre-dawn dark when local Islamists were killing security forces in the town. So who was killing local civilians at that same time? Most or perhaps all of those killed were relatives of a Sunni imam - sheikh Omar Biassi - who happened to be a prominent supporter of the government and a critic of the armed rebellion. (36 victims shared his name, and many others come from intermarried families)Rebels said one of his female relatives who was pregnant was sliced open by the "Shabiha" and her fetus was separately executed. It sounds far-fetched, like the false claims leveled by some Israelis against Hamas fighters, but they did show a photo of an executed, underdeveloped fetus. And one of their pre-dawn videos shows several executed women and children opposition people had discovered, including a seemingly pregnant woman but fully clothed and apparently not yet butchered. Is that the same woman? If so, who sliced her belly open after rebels had access to her body? https://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Al-Bayda_Massacre

Somehow the opposition's Al-Bayda massacre story remains widely accepted, even though the victim targeting raised a few eyebrows (as it failed to do with Houla & others), and even though this sectarian Shabiha massacre narrative was already falling apart and out of fashion by then. People realized that opposition Islamist fighters could -potentially - carry out massacres like these, using guns and blades close up, and somehow, that idea actually took root. At the end of 2012 and early 2013, three massacres blamed on Assad were met with skepticism even from opposition activist and mainstream Western media. 

UK Channel 4, ITV News and BBC News actually spoke with local witnesses, besides hearing phoned-in activist reports, for the massacre of perhaps over 200 Alawites in Aqrab on December 10 and of ~100 Sunnis in Haswiyeh in January. The locals blamed rebels, Al-Nusra Front specifically, and it was not laughed off. Supporting evidence appears in each video report. In between these, a reported massacre in Ma'an around December 25 was pre-questioned by the opposition SOHR, who had worried publicly the Islamist rebels about to seize the Alawite village Ma'an might commit a massacre there. They did take Ma'an and claimed to just find 23 people killed, they say all of the local Sunni minority killed and left behind by retreating Shabiha, but left charred and unrecognizable, with some beheaded. I suspect that those were either Alawites or Sunnis killed for happily living alongside Alawites. Aqrab Massacre - A Closer Look On Syria - Haswiyeh Massacre - A Closer Look On Syria - Maan Massacre - A Closer Look On Syria

After all this growing skepticism regarding these family-slaughtering massacres that could have been by the genocidal terrorists known to be stalking Syria, Assad allegedly decided to start massacring Sunnis in less confusing methods that only his military could manage - missiles and barrel bombs from jets and helicopters rebels lacked, scud missiles that rebels had only seized a few of, and then chemical weapons they presumably couldn't have.

Bombardment Massacres

Just 2 quick examples of cases that didn't turn out so good, not that anyone much noticed or cared:

Khalidiya, Homs, Feb. 2012: some 200 locals killed, with a core of 138 from regime shelling that flattened homes, killing entire families of men, women and children, leading president Obama and others to call for Assad to step down. Other locals reported the victims seen on video were their relatives, including Christians, who were kidnapped by the terrorists enjoying free reign in Homs after the army was compelled to withdraw; the terrorists killed them by "dynamiting" or perhaps shelling a place they were held. Opposition sources said differently, but listed the core 138 victims, the families killed in shelling, as 100% male and nearly all adult by Islamist standards (age 13+). These aren't families. The segregated male hostages, it seems, were in the place someone blew up to get Assad in trouble while killing some religious enemies of the Sunni extremist insurgents. (ACLOS)

Douma market attack, 2015: some 112 civilians were reportedly killed at the open market in a regime jet attack, punishing them for their undying support for the Saudi-backed Jaish al-Islam. However, all 4 "jet strikes" look like artillery strikes from the south, and all fit in a perfect arc wrapping around a spot 800m to the south. As for the punishment part ... the locals had protested Jaysh al-Islam, compelling them to leave the area, maybe to the south. At least 100 of the 112 or so reported victims were listed as adult males, video analysis reveals at least some of them were killed before the alleged jet attack even occurred, and at least 95 of them went unclaimed and were interred in a mass grave. All this suggests the bulk of victims were, again, controlled and gender-segregated prisoners, executed on demand to flesh out yet another alleged regime crime. http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/08/douma-market-attack-masterlist.html

2013-2018: Chemical Attacks

Assad also turned, allegedly, to chemical weapons the rebels supposedly didn't or couldn't have, at least not in the reported quantities ... or so people hoped, assumed, and insisted. He still tried to blame the rebels, but it didn't work very well, and so Bashar al-Assad stands accused of all these incidents considered below and more, some of them killing his own soldiers. There's far too much found, by myself and others I work with, to cover here even in passing, so a fast and partial review is in order. 

The Assad Files of course reveal no orders related to the use chemical weapons. One passage taken as a coded hint was a mention, on February 8, 2012, We received information stating that the Libyan terrorists have acquired chemical weapons from the Libyan chemical arsenal. The weapons will be shipped to Turkish territories to be used later in some Syrian governorates, especially the ones that are facing unrest. This will be done in order to accuse the regime, in coordination with biased television channels, of using the chemical weapons, in order to escalate the Syrian crisis and internationalize it after all the failed attempts to move the Syrian crisis dossier to the Security Council. File:Assad Files 2-2-2012.jpg - A Closer Look On Syria

Some early, vague allegations of regime CW use in Baba Amr, Homs, followed on or by February 21. (Monitor)  Otherwise, there were no such incidents until late 2012. Obama's red line threat/offer stated that if Assad used, or seems to have used chemical weapons, the US might decide to intervene militarily to aid the opposition. I missed it when he first said this on August 20, 2012, and it didn't seem to spark anything at the time. But when he repeated it on December 3, I noticed, and started watching for the false claims or false-flag attacks he had just invited. 

Three days later, on Dec. 6, the first reports came in, as I noted at ACLOS - vague reports of regime gas use in Daraya, with no details and no clear word on casualties. The first reported deaths were on December 22 - seven soldiers in the Syrian army who had cornered some terrorists in that same Daraya. Details are sparse, but the gas was reportedly yellow, just like the sarin used in all the attacks to follow. (ACLOS)

On March 19, 2013, Syrian troops and civilians in the reclaimed Shi'ite village of Khan al-Assal, Aleppo, were affected by a chemical attack reported to use sarin (yellow, reported by some as chlorine), killing some 20 people, including a treating physician. (Monitor) Syria demanded a probe, which was stalled for 5 months  by Western governments, adding invasive demands and other alleged attacks by the government,  (Monitor) before UN-OPCW investigators ("inspectors") finally arrived in Syria on August 18, ready to analyze that terrorist sarin attack. 

But before they could leave Damascus, in the early hours of August 21, a massive chemical attack happened nearby, in Eastern and Western Ghouta, killing hundreds of civilians (reportedly 1,429, and by visuals it was at least 400, probably 500+ and perhaps as many as claimed). It's reported that over 400 of the dead were children. This deadliest chemical attack since Halabja obviously distracted the investigators from the planned probe of Khan al-Assal attack. Instead, investigators visited both Moadamiya (next to Daraya, in W. Ghouta) and Zamalka / Ain Tarma in E. Ghouta, inspected 5 impact points, collected many samples, interviewed supposed witnesses, and took biological samples, all under guard of local Islamist forces, and sometimes under fire from mysterious snipers.

Skipping some interesting anomalies in what was found, the UN and/or OPCW somehow used a single and grossly wrong rocket bearing from E. Ghouta (where there were reportedly 12 impacts), paired with an untested reading from W. Ghouta, in their initial report. Combined with ignorance of the weapons' effective range, these incorrect bearings allowed many (Human Rights Watch for one) to point to a Syrian military base, falsely implicating the Syrian military within a few weeks. Later work I was involved in (overview post with links to 2 reports, our discussion with Aaron Mate on Push Back) explains that error and correctly reads more than 7 rocket impacts for trajectories, finding that they intersect 2km out in a small area in Jobar that includes a field matching the one seen a video of Islamist fighters launching the same kind of rockets (3 firings seen) in what would be the same directions, on what they say is August 21 (and it's dark), and this field seems to have new, consistent scorching by a satellite view taken 2 days later. So, strange as it sounds, that video seems to depict the Ghouta attack, by apparent Islamists, in a spot the Syrian military could hardly access. 

I found 2 more sites later, but with no clear direction clues. It's pretty clear the 12 rockets reported were all fired then. The 3 sites the UN-OPCW visited in E. Ghouta all tested sarin. Most likely but not surely, 12 sarin rockets impacted, almost surely killing a good number of people, even in this semi-rural and war-depopulated area. However, as the late Denis O'Brien (PhD, neuropharmacology) explained, first in an open letter to congress and then in an e-book Murder in the SunMorgue, the hundreds of seen victims overwhelmingly fail to display the signs expected for sarin fatalities (like cyanosis and the SLUDGE syndrome). This remains a bit subjective, but suggests a different toxin was used. I have also noticed the clinical signs varied from one location to the next, which is also subjective but would indicate different toxins (plural) were used in different areas. 

Could it be, like the bombardment massacres mentioned above, that controlled prisoners were killed for this event? 

There were some 200 women and children taken captive a few weeks earlier in rural Latakia, after their men over 13 were openly executed by fighters in a grand Islamist coalition involving Jabhat al-Nusra and literal ISIS, among others. The victims of the Ghouta massacre were not culled from among these, as many have claimed. That would mean they were gassed in or near Latakia, whereas a few batches totaling over 300 bodies have been geolocated to certain spots in E. Ghouta. (Monitor). Still, I collected some signs that the victims were prisoners, includes how, as O'Brien noted, one gassing survivor in Kafr Batna was finished off with some kind of throat injury. (Monitor) (later note: his face was initially covered with a cloth to help see if his breathing increased. It apparently did, and then the cloth covered his bleeding neck). As noted in the first link above, one boy seen alive in Irbeen would later be seen dead, with new freckles on his face and a nosebleed, both being signs of death by manual strangulation.

Hardly any bodies were shown where they fell - in homes, in the streets, or anything. Some people are seen arriving at the Kafr Batna "clinic," but they're not the ones seen dead there. Just one family of 8 or 9 was shown dead in a vacant building. But they appear executed with weapons, judging by decay, a couple days before the Ghouta attack. And their lack of shoes plus winter coats on the women - in August - suggest they were held prisoner by Islamists before someone executed them in this vacant building. (Monitor) Otherwise, it could be we don't see where the people died because those were terrorist gas chambers we weren't meant to see. But they might've slipped and let us see the one in Kafr Batna (as noted by O'Brien, same link as above) and maybe in Irbeen. (See also William Van Wagenen "Sarin doesn't slice throats"

But the official bodies had the wrong rocket bearing and whatever other reasons, be it evidentiary or just political, to blame Damascus, and this had follow-on effects. Having analyzed sarin found at the site of these terrorist rocket strikes in Ghouta, and having decided it was regime sarin, the UN-OPCW investigators came back to finally investigate that terrorist attack at Khan al-Assal. They found that too was sarin and the formula was a match and so, sadly ... the regime must have gassed their own and just blamed terrorists, demanded a probe, then distracted the probe with their own attack using the same sarin, providing this proof all on their own, for whatever reasons. This is one of the most absurd tales ever told, and it's accepted as fact by most people, because official bodies said so, and they never cared enough to apply any skepticism.   

Three days after Ghouta, on August 24, Syria reported its troops were closing in on the area the sarin rockets were fired, some 3-400m from that spot we identified, when 2 canisters of sarin were reportedly launched at them, with one failing to detonate. 4 soldiers needed hospitalized, one of them severely affected and taking days to recover, but none were killed. The OPCW would confirm the government's blood test proving sarin exposure in the one soldier (time lapse probably explains the 3 negatives), and would later find the sarin inside the improvised canisters had the same formula as the sarin used in the Ghouta and Khan al-Assal attacks. Alleged Chemical Attack, August 24, 2013 - A Closer Look On Syria

So the regime must've kept on gassing their own troops. This was just one of three CW attacks on Syrian troops in the days after the Ghouta attack. One of them in deep E. Ghouta on the 22nd was found to be something milder than sarin and that seemed likely enough to me on review. The third attack on August 24 was next to Daraya. Symptoms and initial blood tests indicated sarin, but with the time elapsed before OPCW analysis, they couldn't confirm the exposure. (UN report) There's no word on the exact formula, but it's most likely the same as used in all the other attacks running back to December. 

The same formula sarin would be confirmed in, at least, 3 other sarin incidents over the years:

Saraqeb, 4/29/13 in a special hand grenade otherwise associated with Jabhat al-Nusra, but dropped from a regime helicopter by Assad's forces, killing one woman.  (ACLOShttps://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/10/saraqeb-sarin-incident-magic-grenades.html

Lataminah, March 2017: in at least one or another of a few attacks (one seemingly invented after-the-fact), the same formula of sarin was reportedly dispersed by a M-4000 bomb from a passing Syrian jet. The evidence is all messed up. I'm behind on it and there may be a review project I'll help prompt by failing to go into detail here.

Khan Sheikhoun, April 4 2017, the same sarin would be delivered, also reportedly by a M-4000 bomb, hardly any of which was produced (a bit more detail below).  

The four known weapons used to deliver "government-stockpile" sarin in 2013 are each interesting, and especially put together like this.

In between these sarin attacks was a long pause between 2014 and 2017. After the massive Ghouta gambit failed to get him attacked by the US, and as Assad agreed to give up his chemical program, he allegedly stopped trying with Obama, and acted like a man with no more sarin program. He waited to test his secret sarin with the next president instead, biding his time between with lower-fatality chlorine attacks, as if just to keep the issue alive until 2017. 

These include an attack in Sarmin, March 2015, where a bizarre binary chlorine barrel bomb was said, implausibly, to fall down the air vent of an unfinished house, killing a family of 6 living in the basement. 3 children are seen dead or dying, with no eye redness from the alleged hours of chlorine exposure, and symptoms of paralysis and suppressed breathing more suggestive of an overdose with an opiate or CNS depressant. The infant boy at least is seen alive, managing one yawn-like breath on video, before the Islamist attending surgeon stabs him in the chest with a likely adrenaline syringe, but never injects anything or offers any other CP support. Instead, he twirls the huge needle around in the infant's chest, removes it with the plunger in the same position, and then lets him die ... from "Assad's chlorine barrel bomb attack" as reported. 

White Helmets Movie: Updated Evidence From Swedish Doctors Confirm Fake ‘Lifesaving’ and Malpractices on Children – The Indicter

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/04/what-killed-talebs.html

That was one of the first appearances of the White Helmets, jointly documenting that grisly scene with the local chapter of the Al-Qaeda offshoot JAN/JFS/HTS. They would work together on most of the other alleged CW attacks listed below.

Then, almost as soon as president trump took office, 2017 saw new sarin attack reports. An alleged attack on Khan Sheikhoun on April 4 saw some 80+ locals killed. (ACLOS)  As with Ghouta, no one is seen where they fell - they just appear pre-collected in pickup trucks or at the White Helmets' cave hospital, where the victims were just sprayed with water until they died. Among the standing questions in this case is how sources indicate there was no jet over Khan Sheikhoun at the time to even drop this sarin bomb. Underrated point: opposition stories were clear and detailed in relating a wind to the SW causing deaths in that direction, whereas video shows the wind blowing the exact opposite way, to the NE, including at ground level. The real direction was likely cited but read backwards (the "to" and "from" directions are easily confused), and all the stories built atop that error are basically proven fakes. (Monitor) But it sparked the first US military attacks ordered by president Trump, over no "red line" he even had to specify. Bingo. He would do the same over Douma a year later. 

There was at least one sarin attack reported in November 2017 and another in February 2018, both non-fatal and confusingly said to involve chlorine as well. The OPCW found sarin at the stie of the February attack but had to rule it a coincidence (coincidental sarin! Can you believe it?), as they saw clues for a chlorine attack but felt the 2 agents cannot be mixed and still be effective, as opposition morons reported. 

These 2 events seemed to build up to the attack in Douma on April 7, where "Assad" still hadn't learned and launched another sarin-chlorine attack. But oddly, this time he switched back to simple chlorine mid-attack as it were. On the verge of Jaish al-Islam's defeat in their home base of Douma, a regime sarin-chlorine attack was originally said to kill around 200, with the death toll strangely revised to 43. The reported sarin never turned up, although chlorine and the canisters for it did appear. The visual evidence and all open, professional analysis of it, including from but rejected by the OPCW's investigation, suggests the evidence of an aerial attack was staged; the best reading is that someone manually placed the canisters next to pre-existing damage at the 2 alleged impact sites. The 35 bodies found at one site seemed arranged there as well, following an unclear death, perhaps somewhere else.

I can add, among other points, that the Douma victims were likely relatives of a rival opposition commander, probably held prisoner in some way by the ruling Jaish al-Islam, and were likely killed by exposure to nitric acid, or something that produced it, while bound in an upside-down position, and fitted with swimming goggles for unclear reasons. Only some have yellow-then-brown staining and/or irritation on their upper faces, with exclusions in the clear shape of swimming goggle lenses and sometimes unusual securing straps (right: extracted pattern on a female victim's face). But nitric acid, like chlorine, is an irritant to the eyes, and no victims display eye redness. What else can explain death from breathing acid with no eye irritation except for goggles someone has since removed? (the chlorine that likely passed over their eyes caused no redness because that requires a heartbeat, and they were dead before they were ever laid here).

Also, initial reports that would run to around 200 killed, and later be specified as 187, remain credible. That would make it the second-deadliest chemical massacre of the Dirty War, with most simply de-listed along with the sarin, whatever exactly caused that strange story change (were the militants bringing sarin to spike the site killed by the SAAF along the way?).

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/02/regarding-how-victims-were-killed-by.html

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/04/doumas-mask-of-death-part-1.html

Some 2,000 people Jaish al-Islam held prisoner and agreed to release never did emerge from that captivity, with their fates being unclear. Likely several hundred were killed for the Ghouta chemical massacre, and some were probably used up in the last days for the Douma massacre, besides those killed and used for other events. 

And that brings us to the final point and people who allegedly died in enormous numbers inside the prisons of the "Assad regime."

Prisoner Abuse & Extermination 

Recent post-liberation finds at Sednaya prison are supposed to prove all the alleged abuses in Syria's prisons, and this news will merit some study next. Piles of bloody nooses. A body press to illustrate their repressiveness. Michael Kobs on X is covering that stuff. I'll try to catch up, but first, here's where I had left off seriously questioning all that. It's a wide subject I never tried to master, so I'll be brief until I'm less-brief.

There are many stories, quite possibly made up, swearing to a range of horrid abuses, sometimes seemingly tailored to fit the content of specific "Caesar photos" as if the verify them. However, some million pages of top-secret "Assad files" seemingly provide no supporting evidence for orders to torture, starve, neglect, abuse, kill or mass-exterminate prisoners, at least that anyone whose looked at them has mentioned. It's widely accepted as fact that this was all ordered from above, and opposition-supporting defectors claim to have seen the orders passed down all the time. And the Assad files curators make it sound like they have massive proof but, again, every time they want to show this proof, they turn to a witness claim instead of a single verified order. The documents seemingly provide little aside from black-and-white fluff to rest these other dubious claims upon. 

Assad Files: Investigators mainly found re-iterations of previous orders to care for and not abuse the prisoners. The Syrian Justice and Accountability Center (SJAC) in a report (now deleted? link is 404 - my review) had to concede "None of the pages in the sample set explicitly admitted to the use of torture, despite widespread and consistent accusations..." That's zero out of 3,470 relevant pages they had, despite all those claims of routine, horrific torture. The best the report could do was point to "a handwritten note from a detained individual who confessed to crimes and swore that he was not beaten or tortured during his arrest, raising suspicions that he may have indeed been tortured or mistreated in detention." Yeah, with some imagination, there you go - a supposed lack of torture, once specified, becomes evidence for torture that strangely lacks any straightforward evidence. 

Reference to just one death in custody was found in the SJAC sample, and they had to doubt its claims that the man died from an infection, stemming from an injury sustained during his arrest (probably shot so, in fact, likely a shooting militant). SJAC think the Youtube video shows bruising, but that was likely the fatal infection they saw, and/or the early stages of decay like the "bruising" seen with Hamza al-Khatib and the others (video date/time lapse also unclear). Anyway, no other deaths were noted, and no order to cause deaths were actually discovered. Again, despite the widespread and likely 100% fake stories.   

A memo of August 27 2013 "stresses how the detainees should not be beaten, humiliated or detained arbitrarily." It goes on to acknowledge: “Certain errors made by some Department branches were reviewed, including: (Arbitrary detention… the use of intensity, beating, and torture of detainees ….etc.), emphasizing the imperative of averting these issues.” Is that meant to be read sarcastically, or written in code? (https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/09/assad-files-2018-part-2.html)

Another passage: “It is imperative to attend to the cleanliness of the prison and all its facilities, and the hygiene and health of detainees…to preserve lives and reduce deaths which have considerably risen lately.” 

The "Caesar photos" seem to depict a very different world. These are said to show nearly 7,000 men, older boys and one woman killed systematically in Syrian detention, just from 2011 up to August, 2013, in a system feared to continue well after that. The horrific photos were smuggled out of Syria by a defector code-named "Caesar" (and not for the illogical given reason). The photos and Caesar's explanation of them, corroborated with some contradictions by other opposition-supporting defector-types, are the basis of "Caesar civilian Protection Act" of US Congress ...  any country governed by a dictator willing to do that cannot be allowed to rebuild from the US funded proxy war there, because a lot of suffering was needed, I suspect, to finally break the will of Syrians and bring down Assad. And civilian suffering is just what the act actually promised.  

The supposed military intelligence ID numbers attached to the bodies in the photos (like 215-1234), allegedly assigned upon arrest - would suggest most prisoners were systematically killed in the exact order they were arrested - assembly-line style. Their bodies come in just that sequentially and judging by the other (unidentified body?) numbers, at a rate of about 1,000 a month for at least 10 months in a row (November 2012 to August, 2013). Most of them have suffered severe malnutrition and neglect, sometimes prolonged bondage and, more sporadically, signs of torture like lash marks. 

This photo of perhaps 50 emaciated corpses, with no kind of prison uniform and mostly naked, processed at once, might be a typical day. But this and a few other unusual views allows a clear geolocation the garages area behind military hospital 601 in Damascus, where Caesar says he took all these grim photos. The fact that he includes geolocation shots for later investigations goes to suggest these were never official photos he smuggled out, but his own improvised ones. That improvisation might include elements of dishonesty to misrepresent what was happening here.

Syrian officials have been fairly quiet on these photos, but have explained they show unidentified bodies being processed, attaching numbers to photos for later retrieval of the buried body, once the family made an ID, adding that some are soldiers killed by armed gangs. But the last part is standard boilerplate and this clearly is not a complete answer, even if true. Why so many unidentified bodies and what about their horrible condition? 

In several rounds of work some years back, I saved screenshot copies of over 99% of the 6,700 ish publicized faceshots (only some 5 or so needles lost in the branch 215 haystack, and total coverage of other folders), saving them with all attached info, for a readable catalog I obsessively went over for visual, temporal, and other clues. My research suggested these ~7,000 men, boys and the one woman were definitely prisoners, but more likely held by opposition forces - maybe Liwa/Jaish al-Islam and/or their allies Jabhat al-Nusra (now known as Syria's new government?). It seems plausible that they were killed in repeated large batches and dumped for the government to find and process. I suspect they sent so many because their inside ally - the heralded hero "Caesar" - was there to help launder the bodies as prisoners of the government. He could incorporate the fictional military intelligence numbers written on the bodies onto ID cards he made up, putting them alongside the unidentified body/burial number, to make these look like known but coded prisoners set to be buried. And if it can be made into a show like that, why not make the show truly cinematic in scale?

The suspect ID numbers initially came on forehead tape that was often removed prior to morgue photos that were supposedly meant to confirm these numbers (ex: body 645 of "unknown branch" in the July 1, 2012 folder) later they would be written on the body in permanent market, sometimes in many spots, and then the numbers stayed in the photos. Did someone declare the ID tape offensive terrorist graffiti, or suspect it was for some insider to see and document? "Caesar" had a spell then (mid-August to October, 2012) where he was unable to collect photos, but somehow he came back to witness, just as the show exploded to 1,000 per month. 

Monitor on Massacre Marketing: "Caesar Photos": Timeline of Terror

There are a great many reports from alleged fellow prisoners and family members of Caesar photos victims swearing they had been arrested by the government and that they learned of their deaths in custody in great detail ... usually from some opposition-aligned friend of his who happened be there to see it all but then be released. I admit I haven't tried to review all these reports, but that's how it was with a few I did check, and I don't trust those "friends." 

A frequent general pattern that I might have an alternate explanation for: Example citizen "Fadi" is detained on a phoned-in tip, held in normal conditions with visits allowed until trial, found totally innocent (and the tip itself found suspicious?), and "Fadi" is released. Then with this record or detentions by the regime down on the record, it seems obvious what happened when he vanished a week later, arrested at some "checkpoint." Authorities won't say or don't know where he is, but a former prisoner says he saw "Fadi" at Sednaya, for example, and then he appears starved down and purple in the Caesar photos.

Assad Files: docs said by HRW and UK Channel 4 to help prove TWO photo lineups between 2 "Caesar photos" victims and 2 regime prisoners referenced in the Assad files with the same number, as if that were a special and not a common thing. I was able to show how the dates only approximately line up between the fake terrorist numbers on the Ceaser photos victims and real prisoners who died in unrelated news (indeed, different reasons were given). That's just the kind of coincidence you'd expect a case or two of in datasets of this scale. Those are probably the only two, and the rest of the cases failing to even approximately match up just go to suggest these were always two different sets of prisoners. 

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/10/assad-files-caesar-photo-line-ups.html

Assad Files: A December 2012 Circular to the Military Intelligence Department, signed by its Head, asks: “When any detainee dies in the prisons of the branches of the Department…. their status is then presented to the Head of the Department on the same day by telegram regarding the reasons for their arrest, the findings of their interrogation and the causes of death…”  Consider branch 227 and 215 - with over 80% of the dead between them - killed every prisoner, in roughly or exactly the same order they were arrested (going by what Caesar says). body rate at this time - November 2012 to August 2013, was about 1.000 per month, in a routine and total system ... and one of the guys in charge wants every one reported individually to him? Maybe. Or, is it possible ... these were always two different sets of prisoners?

I find it quite interesting how the Caesar photos run up to August, 2013. Then, on August 20, Caesar reportedly faked his own death and fled Syria with his photos, fearing he was in danger. A strange detail no one mentions but that I finally discerned from the bizarre clinical symptoms so many displayed: most of the Caesar photo victims seem to have died from exposure to a strongly caustic gas, while suspended upside-down. (Finally explained in decent detail in this post) Was someone testing chemical extermination methods for their prisoners? Just hours after Caesar fled, the Ghouta chemical attack killed x hundred app. prisoners, but now including women and children, publicly crossing Obama's red line and risking bombs on Damascus. Is that what Caesar knew to fear, suddenly, on August 20? What kind of company would he keep to receive tips like that? What would he have given in return?

Note: Only a few Ghouta victims  (some of the "Ain Tarma cemetery" ones - see here, with ugly graphic images) show clear signs of being suspended upside-down and exposed to toxic gas like the Caesar photo victims, but this same method would appear again, as noted above, with the 2018 Douma massacre, again likely captives of Liwa/Jaish al-Islam (however there is no sign of nitric acid and only limited sign of goggles/eye protection in the Caesar photos - those would be new twists). Are these all variations on the same theme, an obsession of some local armed group?

FWIW I suspect the massive body flow to August stopped once that audience was gone. I don't suspect the same horror show kept running, at least not on that scale. I sure hope it didn't.

Summary

The celebrated overthrow of the "Assad regime" was supposed to remove the criminals from power in the name of Justice and Accountability over a lot of extremely serious crimes. But to the extent the research above is correct, it just removed the peoples' protector and brought to power the same forces - broadly speaking - behind perhaps every serious "Assad crime." The shooting of protesters, torturing and killing of kids, sectarian false-flag massacres like the ones in Houla and Al-Bayda, staged bombardment massacres, chemical weapons massacres, and the mass extermination of ~7,000 men and boys as documented in the "Caesar photos," and even more. The side responsible for the crueler, grislier, and much larger half of over half a million killed in Syria's Dirty war was - I think - just rewarded with control of all Syria's people. And, of course, it's being cheered all over. What do we think of and do about this?


Friday, September 3, 2021

Higgins and Me

September 3, 2021

I've been tempted to do a post like this before, but now is time, as it relates to the exposé What the Rocket Man Wants us to See in Ghouta (forthcoming), but needs its own post to breathe. 

For a long time now I have imagined Bellingcat founder & CEO Eliot Higgins as a sort of nemesis. It's kind of silly, but I only mean "in part." We do both use much of the same couch potato analysis, largely from video and visual evidence, to bring new insight to contentious events of geopolitical significance. But of course we do it to opposite effect; Higgins and co. generally labor to support official narratives while I and those I collaborate with challenge them. Bellingcat get to "re-invent journalism" by "pioneering" Open Source Investigation, have international criminal investigations launched over their findings, and so on, They have real budgets to pay and constantly hire new staff, somehow made available by some Western governments but mainly a lot of private donors whose agendas (and finances) aren't at all clear to me (to anyone?). In the meantime, our work... has been tolerated so far. 

What is now called "Open Source Investigation" or "Open Source Intelligence" (OSINT) wasn't called anything I knew of at first. But it is specifically what we focused on. Rather than just wait for secrets from Wikileaks, we could learn a lot from reports and visuals that are publicly available, properly weight and with an eye to correlation. In 2012 I co-founded a "group" based on this idea, called "Citizen's Investigation into War Crimes in Libya" (CIWCL) with a website and everything, which has since expired. The logo has a magnifying glass over text of the phrase "available evidence suggests," split into 2 lines. The focus is both on the text (the evidence) and especially considering the sources, on reading between those lines

This is one aspect where Higgins and his team differs most from me and mine. Bellingcat's visual work is largely correct, but doesn't usually prove that much; they can geolocate a video to say the events allegedly occurred HERE, but they still rely on trust in terrorist-activist claims as to what HAPPENED there, taking little to no effort at verifying the claims BY the video. At our best anyway, we employ a much more rigorous comparison of all sources, weighed properly. If we find the visual and the verbal disagree, the visual evidence is preferred. Bellingcat will try to avoid finding such conflicts.

Other differences: Higgins had wondered early on how you get paid analyzing videos and stuff. He's found his solutions to that, whereas I decided to not even try. I still squeeze in what I can on my own time, and just kept not having much of a life outside work and this. The others I think do similar, maybe some with less work and more life, etc.

As for similarities ... I know I've been inspired by some of Higgins' and Bellingcat's methods, and the opposite might also be true, though I've always had a lower profile. As I had put it once in December, 2014 "We're not following him/them, or vice-versa (that I know of), just riding two sides of the same geopolitical waves." Who copied who isn't certain or crucial - what I mean to show here is that Higgins' type of work is not that amazing or unique. But on review, it still seems he might be copying me at times. Below I'll explore some parallels regarding collaboration and format, investigative methods, and two important early investigations.

Collaboration and Format (last 10 years): 

During Libya's disastrous Arab Spring "revolution" in 2011, Higgins was posting comments at The Guardian as Brown Moses. He was famous for being the first commentator on topics of interest (Bosker, HuffPost). As I recall seeing (comments now all gone?), he would collect claims about African mercenaries and Gaddafi regime crimes, track feats of the multinational "freedom fighters," and put down pro-Gaddafi "conspiracy theories." 

In the meantime from April, I started this blog and began some detailed open-source work exposing those lies (like the sniped tykes of Misrata's fake-x-ray matching) and the real massacres (starting with Al-Baida) by the foreign-backed terrorists. These would tear Libya apart, ruining the best living standards in Africa, provide new havens and new armaments to Jihadists across Africa and the Middle East, and bring open Human slavery back to Africa. They were called "freedom fighters," and Eliot Higgins among many others cheered for them. (Libya masterlist and collected posts tagged Libya - incomplete - at first the whole site was about Libya and it wasn't tagged)

In 2012-2013 after seeing a job well done or a good cause destroyed, we both turned our attention to Syria - as did the thrust of global Jihad. Higgins started his Brown Moses blog in March 2012. Among other topics, he tracked insurgent weapon supplies - largely from Libya - in videos of their deeds. He would achieve the most recognition, however, for adding OSINT weight to the gravest alleged crimes of the "Assad regime," like the Houla Massacre of over 100 by Alawite death squads, and later the Ghouta chemical massacre of over 1,000. 

With Petri Krohn, I started CIWCL in February to formalize our Libya work, then swiftly turned to Syria in June. and later to Ukraine (and the "group" name became CIWCL-SUB for Syria, Ukraine, and beyond). Petri and especially "CE" (whom I knew from the JREF forum, now International Skeptics) helped start the wiki site A Closer Look On Syria (ACLOS), to formalize a collaborative process that emerged (others could add blog posts if they joined, as Petri and Felix did, but not add to or clean up mine - a wiki site opened all that up). With CE primarily managing the site, more great open source work followed - visual and otherwise - exposing Syria lies like the Houla Massacre and the Ghouta chemical attack. ACLOS was not highly praised. It was DDOS attacked so frequently we had to move sites early on to even keep it visible. Props to ShoutWiki. When people complained of attacks that seemed to appear when we did and suggested deleting ACLOS, they refused. The attackers eventually gave up and let the site be. (link f/c - it was way back, somewhere)

2014-forward: Higgins launches Bellingcat to formalize the collaborative process that emerged (Keefe: "concerned that he was getting too much of the credit for work that collaborators published on his blog") and does all kinds of other "visiting fellow" and receiving awards type stuff, as detailed at the Rocket Man post, besides hosting workshops, giving media interviews, etc. 

In this time I did some at ACLOS, which expanded to many other areas - mainly surrounding Russia - that Bellingcat also covered, and I was less interested in. I wrote some articles, collaborated with the Working Group on Syria, Propaganda and Media, etc. But mostly I came back to this blog and renamed it Monitor on Massacre Marketing, as I neglected ACLOS and let the CIWCL site expire (but it's still active on Facebook). I got kind of lame last year, wasted most of it researching and debating little besides COVID-19 massacre and it anti-marketing (a depressing experience). 

Then a big new discovery this year led to the Ghouta sarin attack reports with Michael and Chris, making some small waves thanks to to Rootclaim founder Saar Wilf and to Aaron Maté (whom Higgins has also blocked as supposedly irrelevant), no thanks to an apparent boycott by some of the antivaxxers and virus apologists (who distrust Aaron and Max Blumenthal as much as they do 99+% of global health experts), and well-timed just ahead of the 8-year anniversary of the Ghouta event. (the big blurry face is mine, sorry) I cannot overstate how completely we own this subject now. And it's the biggest Syria story there is to own. Higgins denies it, but then he has a long history of denying Islamist atrocities just to score more points against - as it so happens - the West's latest geopolitical target (see below).

Methods: Visual Geolocation

Oliver Bullough at GQ recently explained "one of the specialties that Higgins developed was open-source geolocation—authenticating that posted footage did indeed capture the place that it purported to document," usually by matching scene details to satellite views. It sounds like he invented this "online wizardry," and perhaps so; many bright people have invented similar methods before and since, besides many who have copied it from others. The case is described: 

"In August 2011, Libya’s revolution had become a civil war and insurgents were boasting about having seized the coastal town of Brega. Higgins posted a video selfie purportedly taken by a rebel fighter walking through the town, but another commenter snapped back – it could have been filmed anywhere; it proved nothing." 

Higgins wanted to know, but it seemed impossible. "This is when he had his idea. He watched the video again," taking careful note of the scenery and the roads walked, looked up Brega on Google Maps, "and searched for roads that matched his sketch. It took a while, and he had to keep rotating his piece of paper" but he found the matching spot in the eastern residential district, and added other matching details to verify. Good work. Insurgents "had indeed entered Brega – or the eastern part of it anyway." Other evidence would prove that terrible fact of moderate short-term interest, but Higgins got to confirm it first, as he likes to do. Bullough comments on this: "If Higgins isn't the most innovative journalist anywhere, I don't know who is."

A later Bellingcat article explained this Brega geolocation, from a video posted on August 11. The video is not available now, but one still frame is shown with mid-afternoon sunlight. He could have done less map rotating if he knew how to read solar angles and set the basic directions. 

I had the impression I'd done this kind of work quite a bit by then. But on review all that clearly predates it is from July 17, with the small image at right to show one place protesters were being shot dead in Benghazi on Feb. 19 - near the area marked with a pale blue box. This is the entrance of a Tariq Bin Zeyad school as labeled, next to a park with distinct features. (BTW sunlight played no role here under clouds and smoke and/or it may be after sunset). Although I didn't show the video details that match, the video is still available and it seems worth showing it now, in a new image below (using a March, 2011 Google Earth view, as the February one is obscured by clouds). School entrance coordinates: 32°5'45.9"N, 20°5'1.58" E

At this spot: a man shot in the head is laid down, likely dead, as some climb the walls as if to unlock the school from inside and make it a clinic or base. Another wounded man bleeding heavily is carried by in the direction marked in red. There's a fire set a ways back, making a smokescreen, as protest-militants will do to avoid being shot. Further back that way is the "Katiba" military barracks the "protesters" attacked daily with molotov cocktails, grenades, guns, a bulldozer and even a stolen tank. They did this every day, with some killed in self-defense each day allowing the funeral march that would start the next day's battle, until  Feb. 20 (the day after this video). By then they had more weapons seized in other cities and a suicide bomber destroyed the gates, letting them in to massacre the soldiers, beheading some of them. This finalized the "liberation" of Benghazi the Libyan government was not allowed to correct. 

It was a month later "when [Higgins] had his idea" to similar effect. But he's the "most innovative" one anywhere.

With varying help (notably Petri, Peet 73, Felix, I forget), I did more of this in kind of mapping work, manly from late August on the hideous massacres in Tripoli and in Sirte and other incidents, and in review of earlier events in the "Arab Spring" phase. A few of the better examples: Al-Baida snipers Aug. 24 - another early video located on Nov. 5 - one of the Tripoli massacres explained Dec. 11, with some backstory - another with a pile of bodies actually visible in the satellite view - etc. 

(A contemporaneous effort: On August 9 I started trying to sort a "Qala'a massacre" including location - a forest or tree farm with dirt roads, which I tried to map considering angle of sunlight, with help mainly from a Peet 73 getting better clues by the 11th and 12th text-based location on August 15 - nothing relevant or timely enough to have inspired Higgins' map-spinning work in Brega. A locations post stayed unclear until October with a specific guess based on a new photo from the site - not definitive but good, in the middle southern edge of the spot we had identified west of al-Gawalish.) 

Higgins after that ...  quite a few hits, but then see below his geolocation work on two important investigations in Syria.

Investigations: Houla Massacre 

Higgins got wider attention past weapons buffs out of his coverage of the grisly massacre in Taldou, al-Houla on May 25, 2012. As Syria Deeply explained in April, 2013:

A turning point came when Higgins live-blogged the Houla massacre, which unfolded near Homs last summer. “There was a massive amount of info coming from Twitter and Facebook,” he says, “so I decided to live blog it. And that was reported on NPR, and then after that I got lots of followers on Twitter and people [began] reading the blog. I set targets to do stuff. I’m competitive, so I like to be able to build up an audience.”

He started at the Brown Moses blog with an impressive list of videos from the scene, of the supposed regime shelling that proved all to follow was by them, and the emotion-loaded scenes of hacked-up kids, all with little to no analysis. He didn't see the clue in how rebels so easily got the bodies - as they usually do. He geolocated nothing of relevance and correlated nothing. "Survivors" are cited blaming army shelling and "Shabiha" militants from the neighboring Alawite town. But it was never known these were genuine witnesses and speaking freely. In fact it can now be seen their stories clashes with the video evidence, and sometimes with themselves (consider star witness Ali in some of my open-source analysis of verbal nonsense). 

Higgins covered that story in two blog posts of May 25 and 27 collecting videos and claims, and then nothing else until he popped back on June 28 to in part dismiss "Mother Agnes Mariam claims about the Houla massacre." Those were only part of the body of evidence for insurgent guilt, and were based on some of the other witnesses who described a terrorist massacre, as Syrian state media had reported. But some pro-opposition clergy members had spoken up with their own opinions that mother Agnes was just spreading pro-Assad lies. On this basis, Higgins said John Rosenthall owed an apology for citing her, and the Brown Moses blog had nothing more to say on the Houla Massacre after this.

In posting that June 28 commentary, Higgins seems to be indirectly replying to the previous day's UN Human Rights Council report. Otherwise, he simply ignored it. That "oral update" was unable to decide the blame, noting a same-day rebel offensive that overran at least two army checkpoints. "With the available evidence, the CoI could not rule out ... [that] the perpetrators were anti-Government forces seeking to escalate the conflict while punishing those that failed to support – or who actively opposed - the rebellion." Even with some apparent effort to blame the government, several points kept suggesting the other view. A later report issued in August tried harder and ignored more, managing a fairly decisive indictment of the Syrian army and "Shabiha" militias (see here). But Higgins could rule out the alternative, somehow, even when the UN couldn't, and had already called it case closed. 

For me this massacre, with dozens of children murdered in such a shocking manner, was a turning point to finally start studying Syria. Early analysis at ACLOS went on for months, analyzing reports, videos, and accounts from "alleged witnesses/survivors" for the two main narratives, with an eye to correlation and consistency. By year's end we established that an insurgent force of several hundred descended on Taldou that day and almost certainly overran 2, 3, or even 4 of the five security posts there, while attacking the fifth. In this way it seems they gained control over the southern half of the town, where someone then engaged in a massacre targeting - per the most credible reports - an extended Abdulrazaq family of the Shia faith and 2 Sunni families seen as loyal to the government (both named Al-Sayed but supposedly unrelated). 112 civilians were killed, 63 of them children, all shown, some with horrified faces hacked open as if with hatchets. Among that 112, some Abdulrazaqs and some al-Sayeds were also killed in the rebel-controlled north of town, and some other intermarried with the Abdulrazaqs were even killed in the fractious village of Aqrab a ways to the north (noting all between Taldou and Aqrab was rebel-held Al-Houla, connecting to other rebel-held towns like Rastan, and with territory running to the Turkish border).

Two reports and some addenda explaining all this are offline until I find them a new home, but the "Battle for the Houla Massacre" evidence in the 2014 2nd report is important (see the decent 2017 review here). I got an idea to re-up that after Bellingcat was started, with and a new blog Taldou. Truth. It could never go far, and didn't even go all the way, but close - it's a great resource on the subject. I issued a challenge there: Brown Moses on the Hook to show if anything was wrong in our visual work, or to maybe admit he couldn't. Issued in December 2014, he of course never responded to the challenge. He meant case closed. 

Bellingcat were not the ones to map several videos to spots in town relative to overrun and circumvented security posts and massacre sites, as we did here. Because of laziness and lack of concern, Eliot Higgins never saw the smoke rising from the National Hospital after sunset, in line with the rebel attack witnesses he dismissed as Assadist liars. It was the ACLOS crew who correctly pinned one "regime shelling attack" on a rebel dude firing an RPG over and over just south of the central security post, around 6:15 PM (B.1 below) as activists tried awkwardly to ignore him. Higgins had found that shelling video extra-convincing, maybe because the explosions were just so loud. 

I realize this is pretty hardcore pro-Assad propaganda here and will set a lot of people off. That blood was clearly set on his hands, and those of the insane genocidal Alawites next door, and it was case closed based on who-cares-what details long ago. "Everybody" knows that. But sorry, I don't calculate my position based on how far it strays from the approved version, and I wouldn't keep it tighter just because the crime was so hideous. If it's completely f%$#ing upside-down, absolving the killers and blaming the victims, someone who is still FREE to say so should say so. It's depressing, but the implication here is we have a sick system. Higgins didn't invent this inversion of truth, but he did his part maintaining it.

Furthermore, I and we (varyingly) have found the same basic MO again and again in these early massacres of - mainly - late 2011 to late 2012. But Jabhat Al-Nusra kept getting implicated in these (Houla, Tremseh, Daraya) and especially at the end (Aqrab, Ma'an, Haswiyeh). And they did have access to things like rifles and hatchets. Seeing his "Shabiha massacres" advantage falter, "Assad" then turned - as of December 2012 - to attacks by SCUD missiles, aircraft only he could fly, and chemical attacks with sarin from his own unique recipe. He would try to blame the "terrorists" for these crimes, but Eliot Higgins would be on hand to help foil those plans.

Investigation: Ghouta and Other CW Incidents

Higgins has been noted for following Syria chemical attacks early on, even before a reported 1,429 were killed in Ghouta on August 21, 2013. But I've probably been following longer - since days before a single attack was even reported. The first attack report was noted at ACLOS on day 3 of my watch, following Obama repeating his tempting "red line" offer on Dec. 3. Early coverage into 2013 was pretty flawed but still valuable - eg I gave too much credit to chlorine claims in the Khan al-Assal attack of March 19 in one early article on Syria CW attacks run at the Center for Research on Globalization in early May: "Was the Syria Chemical Weapons Probe “Torpedoed” by the West?" - or better yet see an improved draft that just missed the deadline, posted here with later comments.

At the Brown Moses blog, Higgins showed some respect for this article. Despite the CRG website being "far to conspiratorial for my liking" my contribution was "a good round up of reports of chemical weapon use in Syria" and that's "not something I say lightly." He used it mainly as a start point to address the numerous claimed incidents up to then, and he was right about the chlorine claims in Khan al-Assal; chlorine is not that deadly, and eventually everyone seems to agree - sarin was used against Syrian troops and mostly-Shi'ite civilians at Khan al-Assal, described as "cottage industry" and also judging by impurities, it's said to be the same kind used in Ghouta. Also that launch spot cited - 47km away! - was some other error in Alex Thomson's early dispatch, with official claims being about 5km to the north, in Kafr Dael, and a small but powerful locally-made rocket called Bashair-3 used (see below). 

We didn't interact much, but some. In an Oct 2013 grenade discussion in comments at his blog, he acknowledged the helicopter-dropped 'cinderblock containing the sarin grenades' is smoking AND glowing just like white phosphorous does. That might be last time he responded to me. These grenades have been linked to Jabhat al-Nusra, thanks partly to Higgins (my post on them), and in at least one attack contained the same kind of sarin used in Khan al-Assal and Ghouta. The same also appeared in the weapons used for a sarin attack on SAA troops in Jobar, that occurred just 3 days after Ghouta and in the same area from which the sarin-filled Volcano rockets were fired.


Also of note: Higgins was apparently informed in May, 2013 that Jabhat al-Nusra had seized some of Syria's chemical weapons in the Aleppo area some time before, and although the type(s) weren't clear, they may have used them at Khan al-Assal (which, again, used sarin). He was asked to keep that off the record, and has accordingly deferred to Syrian claims that none of their CWs have been stolen. As it so happens, that's probably the right call; as I may explain in another post, this story from Matthew Van Dyke is rather dubious anyway. (they probably did have sarin, just not by the route he was told about.)

As for Higgins' investigation of the August 21 incident ... see What the Rocket Man Wants us to See in Ghouta for more detail, but in summary: He identified the government-improvised Volcano rockets from at least June and so recognized them right off in videos following the sarin attack. That's a plus. He also had linked them by videos to government use only, as if insurgents didn't have any Volcanos or managed to never show them off. He supposedly mapped their impacts and found the government-held firing spot; Oliver Bullough at GQ recently enthused at Higgins' work and a well-deserved "surge of interest that culminated in a profile in the New Yorker, headlined “Rocket Man”, after he proved the Syrian regime fired makeshift rockets packed with sarin at rebel-held parts of Ghouta, killing hundreds of people." Bianca Bosker at Huffington Post called Higgins a "one-man intelligence unit" whose "work unraveling the mystery of the rocket strikes of Aug. 21 played a key role in bringing much of the world" to blame Syria's government for the chemical attack. 

And this fame would be crucial to launching Bellingcat. But really he did a pretty crap job on that aspect. None of Higgins' Ghouta geolocations are his own work; he just verified them, and in one case didn't even do that. Two locations were visually identified by followers, two others were set by coordinates, and Bellingcat claimed a fifth location based absorbing an error by then-collaborator Chris Kabusk (who now works with Michael and I). While Chris corrected this error in 2017 based on new photos, Bellingcat retains the flawed deduction and passes it on to influential parties worldwide. 

For reference here: all impacts mapped by LCC & HRW (red and blue) vs. all correctly geolocated (green dots, 8 in total) and the ones among those that were first set by Higgins & co. boxed in yellow, or yellow-green for Higgins/Kabusk. We're not claiming to have placed all these green dots with out own work - just the ones that aren't wrapped in yellow. 

In other spots Higgins can be seen consciously twisting the evidence to the official conclusions, urging us to just blindly trust the "UN azimuth" from the west - which he knows is grossly erred (the reality being up to "50 degrees off to the north"). Then ignoring that anyway, he looked northwest at max. range or a bit past it (2.1 to 2.6km), and decided some government-held firing spot or other probably fits. In 2021 he decides the maximum range no longer applies, claims his early reading from the north way past range, lets it be read as pointing west way past range - confirming the key finding of the UN-OPCW probe: the government did it, from whatever invented angle at whatever impossible distance.

Finally he had added a backup shortcut early on, in case that all failed. With Dan Kaszeta and other allies, he would use various unfounded tricks to "prove" the field samples of used sarin were from Syria's stockpiles, and so only they could have used it, even if that flies in the face of all the other evidence. After this, it was "case closed" and faith in that closure demanded. 

In our reports this year, Michael, Chris and I use the ignored trajectory (read better as 30 deg. north from what the UN reported, not 50) as the clearest among 7 or 8 or 9 estimates (dep. on definition) from 7 or 8 geolocated impacts that converge almost exactly at a spot that matches the videos he had also dismissed. This footage shows Islamist insurgents in an area they would control, firing at least 3 of their own Volcano rockets, on what they say is the night of the attack, at the right angles to be some of those found 2km away the next day, full of that unique type of sarin. 

This pretty well disproves Higgins' exclusive ownership shortcuts and sloppy ballistic analysis, besides implicating the foreign-backed terrorists for this attack and the several hundreds of civilian deaths blamed on that sarin. Below: based on alt. analysis in my 2nd report. I think it's generally an improvement, but full team review will be part of any NEXT ROUND of Ghouta analysis. Who's open here, and who's so eager to keep cases CLOSED based on authority decisions?  


Open Sources, Open Debate?

One obvious appeal of Open Source investigation is how anyone can see and check the conclusions. As a rule of thumb a strictly visual geolocation from anyone credible is probably right; it's so easy to show wrong that someone likely will have already. But then maybe no one has - always worth verifying. In that sense at least, Bellingcat does produce findings that are largely correct, just very incomplete and not the proof they pretend it to be. This too is open enough to see - at least to the well-informed eye - as explained in part above.

As Higgins told Bianca Bosker “If you want someone to really question your work, just post it on the Internet. ... There are plenty of people who’ll want to tell you you’re an idiot and you’re wrong.” Implicitly, they'll fail when challenging his work because, as she wrote, "Higgins tries to imagine every disagreement from some ticked-off stranger online, and preemptively strengthen his argument’s weaknesses." In that case, they won't be able to SHOW anything truly wrong - they can raise confused questions and doubts, and even pretend they've proven you wrong, but otherwise ... they might resort to blocking you, etc. But that better describes our findings, strengthened so Eliot cannot cope with them directly.

Considering the points above, I long suspected Higgins never muted me, having too much intelligence to flat ignore my often insightful work, But he has ignored me or failed to respond since early-mid-2014 at latest - maybe in October 2013 - the entire time he's been this "OSINT" hot-shot thrust upon the world stage. He's smart enough to recognize a potential threat. Best defense would be to hope I remain obscure enough to barely matter, and definitely to avoid giving me any attention of his own. All-time twitter replies to my several questions: zero. IIRC all replies to a few comments at Bellingcat.com were fielded by others like "Servus" (here refusing to learn Syrian soldiers have been attacked with sarin until I was cut off from even trying). Bellingcat's Twitter account likewise has never replied (and just recently has blocked me, along with a lot of people - see replies here and check if you're blocked too - it was news to many). 

The other two current Bellingcat contributors I have ever encountered - Aric Toler and Nick Waters - have blocked me in the last year or two. I don't think that was for any rude behavior, and likely on a Bellingcat ignore policy. But Higgins, who would originate this policy, did not. Recently as I review better, it strikes me Eliot is more lazy and lame than I had realized, and most likely did mute me long ago, but let me see what he was up to, for what it's worth (generally it wasn't worth much to me). 

He blocked Ghouta reports co-author Michael Kobs back in 2014, as he was quite active against Bellingcat on the MH-17 issue all along. I disagreed with their direction, but the narrow visual work they had done seemed valid to me and I said so. It seemed a complex case where no one else got the complexity, and maybe that lonely road aspect led me to sort of drop out of that scene, and Ukraine/Donbass in general (I find I do better with picking my battles, and that was big one). That may be related.

As the Rocket Man articles explains (forthcoming), Higgins was aware of our new Ghouta findings since March, and casually engaged in efforts to minimize and discredit them. In time he got specific enough to offer a weak rebuttal of his own and commented in support of another, and falsely claimed we ignored key evidence about rocket and sarin ownership. Alongside this failure, he has been taking a harder line to skeptics and increasingly appeals to authority. He suggested in June that Twitter should ban statements that Syrian CW attacks were "false flags", pursuant to a policy against "denial" of "violent events" (the Holocaust, etc., with the etc. being really problematic) 

But he only now blocked me, on July 26, within hours of our Push Back appearance. That's just as I reason I/we might be too big to ignore. I'm not to see any of the attacks he might be launching, or I'm on hard mute like I don't exist until hopefully I don't. Turns out this intelligence unit isn't so open after all. But he is getting paid and praised.