What Happened the Night of April 13/14 in Sheikh Maqsoud?

The First Bodies Tossed Across Obama's Red Line
Part 5: What Happened the Night of April 13/14 in Sheikh Maqsoud?
November 26, 2017
(rough, incomplete)

Background: A Midnight Attack Amidst Islamist Occupation

Most people refer to this, as the page at A Closer Look on Syria does, as April 13, 2013. However, by the story it was actually about 3 am on April 14, in the sprawling Kurdish-majority Sheikh Maqsoud district of Aleppo. This is the first of two known incidents to employ the magical hand grenades apparently belonging to or used by Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, and that was otherwise unknown and never-before-seen. In the other attack two weeks later in Saraqeb, they showed this grenade as responsible, but there were later suggestions that was shown as a similar example, not the exact weapon. But in this case, it's the one used, seen laying on the stairs (comparison below). So that story cannot be unwritten, in case anyone was tempted.

Here, as in Saraqeb, they say it was dropped from a helicopter. Well, some said there was one:

M.Sergie tweeted "Some survivors said the canisters were dropped from a helicopter, but others didn't hear rotors." You would hear them. Whatever. The hand grenade fell from the regime helicopter (did you know rebels have no helicopters?) into the open stairwell of an apartment building, tearing though plastic sheeting over the top of it. Upon impact with the upper stairs, it coated them with some white powder that appears sprayed, almost like a small fire extinguisher went off here. Unless this is actually shattered cinderblock, there was apparently no cinderblock involved in this drop, as they would allege in Saraqeb. (there are crumbles, but also what looks like rebar from some serious concrete damage - still needs more review)

Tracy Shelton would report on April 30 about this attack for PRI (then Global Post): The horrific chemical weapons attack that probably wasn’t a chemical weapons attack

“When we arrived on the scene I saw the bomb canister. It was not a heavy explosive,” said Toul Haldun Zagroz, a Kurdish police officer in Sheikh Maqsoud. He said he was part of the second team to arrive at the scene, adding that many of the police and rescuers on the first team ended up in the hospital with similar symptoms as the victims.

“There was a white powder covering the stairs but there was no smell or smoke. It did not even occur to me that it might be a chemical, but when we went inside we saw the children dead and the Kurdish police who had arrived before us were on the ground foaming something white from their mouth. Their eyes were so red.”

We must note this Kurdish-majority district had just been overrun by Turkish-backed Islamists. An AP report from Saturday, March 30 has an "FSA" guy boasting how they and and their "Kurdish brothers liberated Sheikh Maqsoud of Assad's criminal gangs and shabiha," referring to pro-government militias now called National Defense Forces. The attack, dubbed "Kurdish Fraternity," was launched the 28th and largely culminated with partial control on the 30th. On that day,

"The Observatory (SOHR) said rebels captured a pro-government Sunni Muslim cleric in the fighting, killed him and then paraded his body through the neighborhood.

State-run Al-Ikhbariya TV identified the cleric as Hassan Seifeddine. It said he was beheaded and his head was placed on the minaret of Al-Hassan Mosque where he used to lead the prayers.

The SANA state news said Seifeddine's body was "mutilated" after the "assassination."

There was a report that "FSA" denied the murder, and suggested Assad's undercover "Shabiha" had killed Seifeddine to make the liberators looks bad. (ACLOS)

That's March 30. After a month of FSA/Islamist-Kurdish joint management, Tracy Shelton noted on April 30: "The brief alliance was quickly shattered last week after the rebels accused the Kurds of double-crossing them and clashes erupted." That should be around April 25. Sounds like things broke down shortly after this chemical attack, or was maybe building up to that. April 13/14 might already be a time that Jabhat al-Nusra could use their weapons against Kurds, including some police and certain civilians ... 

But the "FSA" and allies say the government is behind it, as Shelton heard. A Dr. Hassan, who treated the victims in Afrin, "said he thought the government was attempting to scare the Kurds in Sheikh Maqsoud — using a small attack with some kind of chemical — to prevent them from working again with the rebels." But not everyone agreed: "Others accuse the Free Syrian Army of trying to rope foreign powers into the conflict by feigning a chemical attack." It's not noted, but their Jabhat Al-Nusra allies might be doing the same. And, as Shelton noted, "The Syrian government has little to gain from speculation that chemical weapons are being used in Syria." 

Growing Death Toll, Victim ID Problems, 

Tracy Shelton's article published the story via a survivor's tale - apparently taken second-hand from the medics she spoke with

Yasser Younes went to bed around midnight on April 13. When he woke up two days later, he was in a hospital, and his wife and two young children were dead.

Younes, who lives in the Kurdish-controlled neighborhood of Sheikh Maqsoud, said he doesn't remember much from that night. He recalled waking up to a loud noise at 3 a.m. Opening the door, he said he saw smoke. And that was it.

A bit more of the story as told by Shelton on Democracy Now: 

...I spoke with the neighbors who had come in to help, and they’d found the two young boys were dead. The mother later died in hospital. So that was the whole family that was inside the house. The neighbors that came in to help them, they also fell ill. Most of them were in a coma also for a day or two.

And then the next party to arrive were the Kurdish police and members of the YPG forces, the Kurdish militia forces that control the area, and many of them also fell ill, up ’til the next people arriving on the scene like three hours later. 

Most initial sources have 3 killed - two young boys and their mother, who would be Yasser's wife and kids. Some reports mentioned another woman had died, for 4 total. The December, 2013 UN final report heard "the alleged incident affected 21 persons and caused one death." That's clearly incomplete and apparently means one death in hospital (the mother: the boys were allegedly dead from the start).

Most sources agree 20, 21, or 22 total patients were brought to the hospital in Afrin, including the 3-4 dead and thus 16-19 who survived the poison. 

Interestingly, the opposition VDC has 14 people listed as killed, for almost everyone reported as affected (VDC query: all chemical deaths April 13, and ACLOS). Beyond the first 2 women and 2 children, this adds another woman and 9 men, for 14 martyrs total. This division of death reports would be strange, if it weren't so common. Included in this list is our star witness: Yaser Younes Adult - Male, from Sheikh Maksoud, died 2013-04-13. Cause of Death: Chemical and toxic gases.

Syrian opposition site Aksalser.com reported on the attack, giving the names of 3 killed and just 10 others of those affected (should be 17-19). The VDC lists all but 2 of these as killed, and also lists 3 others the original list didn't name as affected, but who wound up dead. The remaining 7-9 patients aren't named anywhere, and by this anyway, virtually everyone who named died. But their names changed in many cases...

One possible argument is the VDC just goofed up and listed all the effected and dead as dead - and missed a couple, and got some names different, added a couple, etc. ... That sounds reasonable, and who would report these strangely-delayed deaths anyway? Best if they just vanish.

I'll come back to the victims names and related patterns... there are some definite oddities here, which is not unusual. <space for that>

Fake Star Witness?

Yasser: Shelton heard, second-hand it seems, that he saw smoke outside the apartment and then passed out. Democracy Now interview: "Yes, well, he—it was actually dropped into their home. It fell onto their courtyard stairs just outside. So, when he woke up, he had opened the door. His only recollection was just seeing some smoke. And then he was in a coma for the next few days." To akselser.com, the man himself said "a small explosion occurred in our house ... I rushed to the children's room to find them unconscious and there was smoke in the room," said Yasser Yunis" who then called up his brother Abdullah to come help (hence brother in the table above). I guess we prefer the version from the horse's mouth and can't call much of a contradiction here. There's less reason for his brother to show up and be effected if Yasser just passed out instead of placing a call. But then did he? He winds up not listed as dead...

consider: article on Tracy Shelton's work here "The most notable survivor was Yasser Younes, who remembered nothing but an explosion at 3 a.m. It was his wife and two children who had died. But Shelton could not interview him; Younes had returned to his home village. “He’d left to another village… and I was trying to get there, but I couldn’t get anyone to take me out there. I didn’t know the exact location” she recalls. Shelton had learned to be careful about accepting rides." That's smart, of course. Is "he went back to his home home town" here code for "he died, and the guy playing him retired the role to live his own life?" 

As far as I've seen, there are no images of Yasser specified. He might be one of the people in the video (none of whom seems to be in a coma, however), but no one says so. So far, I don't even know what he was supposed to look like. That could matter if there were ever some other image said to be of him to compare it to.

And what about the seen victims? 
Ronahi TV exclusive video: Akselser.com posting - Human Rights Investigation posting

They have a couple types of victims in the small group shown, in some dim basement clinic (and seen later in a better-lit hospital) ... obvious staging of "foaming at the mouth and nose" scenes - not just us but several experts saw this and explained in detail why it's probably just as fake as it seems. "I'm wholly unconvinced," as one put it softly. This plus very bland and fake-seeming "convulsions," are seen with the adult male victims (2 of them?), who look like clean-shaven camera-friendly Islamists (ACLOS)

The two baby boys are here, getting a bed each but no treatment - they're already dead. That's another group that's pretty clearly not faking. (at right and above, from some images provided to the SOHR at the time)

Two women are also shown, seeming at least to not be faking for the fun of it. One has apparent mucous bubbles from her nose, and seems paralyzed or dead at first, but later speaks to the camera.

The other woman seems to have suffered a bad foot beating, and shows no obvious chemical signs other than laying still and not looking at the camera ... Did the new Islamist authorities have a go at her for some Sharia law crime like dressing wrong, or being married to a Kurd who crossed them?

Sarin Confirmation 
In retrospect, it shouldn;t be surorising if sarin somehow turned up in this incident, using the same weapon used later in an attack later confirmed to involve sarin. But at the time, it wasn't clear at all, and still, just how it was involved (if it was - likely) remains an open question.

The Times of London report about a sarin attack in Aleppo (see Narwani): apparently people with the Syrian American Medical Society ("a team from “an American medical agency”) came to the Afrin hospital and took hair samples to have tested in US labs. (it seems SAMS also helped take stolen samples from the Khan al-Assal attack, after Islamists again overran the town, and sent hem to the US to confirm sarin in that case - ACLOS). The US was suddenly confident by late April to declare sarin was probably used (doubts aired by April 25 - McClatchy) A 14  June  2013 letter from the US government to the UN investigation alleged Syria's government used sarin "against  the  opposition  in  an  attack  on  the  Aleppo neighborhood of Sheik Maqsood on 13 April 2013," the UN report says. They were unable to verify.

"The United Nations Mission sought to conduct fact-finding activities pertaining to this incident from the territory of a bordering country (in Turkey), having determined that such an investigation held the prospect of producing additional information. The United Nations Mission was ultimately unable to obtain any such information." (Turkey refused?) "In the absence of any further information, the United Nations Mission was unable to draw any conclusions pertaining to this alleged incident." (UN final report). No interviews, blood samples verified, nothing further.

If they had looked, maybe they'd find sarin, plus all the witnesses dead, other strange things even they couldn't ignore ...  

Symptoms and treatment:
As noted, the seen victims have strange or fake symptoms, but it's not totally clear who's who, and some victims were described differently:  

Textbook sarin: "they displayed symptoms of chemical exposure including foaming at the mouth, constricted pupils and difficulty breathing. They were treated using chemical weapons antidote Atropine, Dr Habash claims." (Daily Mail) It's almost like he read that right from a textbook, instead of actual events... except the foaming part. That can happen, but is not as standard or textbook as these guys think, and the shaving creak tricks really push it too far.

Not textbook: "those injured suffered hallucinations, severe vomiting, nose bleeding and eye burning, one of which lost eye sight." (SOHR Facebook) Policeman Zargos: "when we went inside we saw the children dead and the Kurdish police who had arrived before us were on the ground foaming something white from their mouth. Their eyes were so red.”

None of the people seen as victims on video seem to have red eyes or bleeding noses, and they aren't vomiting. Are they stand-ins?

Secondary contamination:

Policeman Zagroz "himself would later suffer similar symptoms. About 30 minutes after entering Younes' home, he was taken to the hospital to be treated for dizziness, severe headache, blurred vision and stomach pain." Dr. Hassan: “My effects were mild, but one doctor had to be admitted to be ICU.” (Shelton, PRI)

Phosphorous?

The VDC heard: "at the beginning news were reporting that shelling was using white phosphoric material and then other sources said it is (Sarin Gas), news to be validated."  This confusion is also seen with Adra, 3-24-13 (a few weeks earlier). There it seems bad translation was to blame - organophosphate (including sarin) comes out as (organic) phosphorous, taken as perhaps WP incendiary weapons. That's probably two early sarin reports.

Did the Saudis Order a 3-City CW Attack in March, 2013?

November 2, 2017
(rough, incomplete)
edits Nov. 3, 11

March 18's Saudi-Commanded Attacks 
The Intercept recently published a leaked NSA document from March, 2013 showing Saudi royal family orchestration of military events in Syria: NSA Document Says Saudi Prince Directly Ordered Coordinated Attack By Syrian Rebels On Damascus (by Murtaza Hussain, October 24 2017, 7:30 a.m.)

The document in question seems to be a bullet-point slide (presented with the article, shown below) describing a particular opposition military attack of March 18, 2013, with several rockets fired into central Damascus. As Hussain describes it, "The attack was a brazen show of force by rebels under the banner of the Free Syrian Army, targeting the presidential palace, Damascus International Airport, and a government security compound. It sent a chilling message to the regime about its increasingly shaky hold on the country, two years after an uprising against its rule began."

Aaron Lund told Hussain, based on video analysis, several rebel groups were involved in the attack, "all identifying themselves as different factions of the ‘Free Syrian Army,’ and all apparently linking back to the same sponsor.”  That would be Saudi Arabia, specifically now-king (Crown Prince Mohamed Bin) Salman (oops), then running Saudi Arabia's operations in Syria. As the article puts the main point:

Behind the attacks, the influence of a foreign power loomed. According to a top-secret National Security Agency document provided by whistleblower Edward Snowden, the March 2013 rocket attacks were directly ordered by a member of the Saudi royal family, Prince Salman bin Sultan, to help mark the second anniversary of the Syrian revolution. Salman had provided 120 tons of explosives and other weaponry to opposition forces, giving them instructions to “light up Damascus” and “flatten” the airport, the document, produced by U.S. government surveillance on Syrian opposition factions, shows.

Here's the slide in question, as shared in the article. Note: The U.S. was warned three days in advance (that is, on the anniversary on the 15th - the attack didn't mark it exactly.)

It sounded good, but apparently didn't cause much thunder. Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya could only report "A statement posted on an opposition Facebook page said rebels groups had fired “a number of 120 mm heavy caliber mortars... in a joint operation coordinated with battalions operating in Damascus.” To mark two years of "revolution of freedom and dignity against the despotic regime of the criminal Bashar al-Assad." They claimed to hit the airport and the presidential palace, but that wasn't confirmed. State TV and the SOHR agreed at least five shells landed, but no deaths or even injuries were immediately reported. 

The NSA noted "Saudis "very pleased" with outcome" of the attack.  But it seems fairly weak considering the occasion and the large investment. It's worth wondering if there was a second motive involved. 

As for the rest of the article, it's standard fare. Hussain follows the revelation with a lot of ill-informed context about the Syrian government's supposed brutal crackdown on dissent, etc. Unwisely, he chooses to highlight  salafist defector and FSA godfather Hussein Harmoush "who had denounced the Syrian dictator after a wave of massacres in 2011." It seems Harmoush personally led the bloodiest massacre yet, in June, 2011, against more than 100 "refusenik soldiers" in Jisr al-Shughour. Some of the executed soldiers were beheaded. It was done with Turkish assistance and oversight. Harmoush was apparently kidnapped and sent back to Syria, by his own Turkish intelligence case officer who was sickened by the crime. That officer was arrested for treason, but is said to have escaped later. Harmoush was probably executed by firing squad, but it was never announced and rumors of other deaths or still being alive persist. I sense no injustice in this case, except that the guy maybe got off too light. (see on-site profile, for Harmoush).

But the main point is this leaked NSA document that adds some intrigue among those battling the brutal dictator. Qatari former Prime Minister Hamad al-Thani, who oversaw Qatar's Syria operations until 2013, recently revealed in an interview how his nation worked with the Saudis and the US. As Zero Hedge explains it, Al-Thani says Qatar was placed in overall charge of which Islamists to arm, and was later left holding the bag as it were, as Saudi Arabia now blames Qatar alone for supporting terrorists in Syria, and maybe of doing it in collusion with Iran and Al-Shaytan himself. But some things were run by the Saudis themselves, like this March 18 attack.

This detail was a little late coming; Julian Assange notes on Twitter the Intercept have been sitting on this information since late 2013, raising questions about the 4-year delay in publishing it. But now we have one more glimpse at the reality behind the desperate peoples' uprising. And I'd like to add a interesting feature that pops out to me, and would have on first  at any time. So I'm asking this question about 4 years later than I might have.

The Following Day's CW Plot and Attacks

On seeing Saudi-directed actions on 3-18-13, it clicks that on the following morning there was an unusually bold chemical attack - no, there were two - no, there were apparently three attacks planned, for one in each of Syria's three main cities: Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs. Wouldn't that sound like some epic, out-sized revenge for an attack on the president's Palace and his possible escape route at the airport? It would cross Obama's red line in a big way, and might require a "no fly zone" over all three cities and everything between.

The three locales are mapped at right. The middle one in Homs apparently didn't come together right and was barely even reported, but the other two seemingly-synchronized attacks  are known and studied, and each claimed Syrian lives (~20 in Aleppo, 7 in Ateibah). Was this Assad's revenge? Done by Scud missile perhaps, from Damascus, risking bad aim as far out as Aleppo? (Syria was daily accused of random scud attacks in these days).

Or was it something else? Of the deadly two attacks, one was small-scale and dubious, and the deadliest one looked kind of like an obvious attack by anti-government forces.

This is explained in fuller detail in this post, but here in some review to re-consider what I've learned in light of this new information and the possibility the Saudis may have ordered this next-day "revenge" campaign as well.

Aleppo Attack in Review

The Aleppo attack is somewhat well-known. The Syrian government announced it first, claiming outrage that terrorists had launched toxic gas into a government-held area near an Army checkpoint, sickening and killing soldiers and civilians alike. This was in Khan Al-Assal, as Alex Thomson of UK Channel 4 News reported, a Shia-majority district rebels had overrun and been pushed back out. Thomson reported Khan al-Assal was “in government hands since 17 March.” They were gassed there around 7:00 or more likely 7:30 am on the 19th. Civilians were just starting to return.

Bashair 3 rocket (non-CW, pres.), fired in Feb. 2013

According to Syrian officials, the attackers – reportedly with Jabhat al-Nusra, although no one claimed responsibility - were about 5km to the north, in Kafr Dael. They used a certain rocket, locally made and dubbed Bashair-3, loaded with chemicals. It landed about 300 meters from an SAA checkpoint, with a deadly plume drifting on the wind into nearby homes to the south, as UN investigators found.

The death toll has been reported differently, but it seems only one soldier died along with a total of 19 civilians, as a UN report issued in December found, with another 124 people seriously effected. (see UN report and ACLOS page for more details and sources)

Syria demanded a UN investigation, but this was complicated and stalled by Western powers (see here) so the work was only done by the December report. In the interim, Rebels overran Khan al-Assal all over again in June and committed a massacre of soldiers and civilians, perhaps emphasizing witnesses to the CW attack, and complicating any visit by UN-OPCW inspectors. Khan al-Assal remains rebel-held into 2017. Also in the meantime, Russian scientific tests showed sarin was used in the Khan al-Assal attack, a "cottage industry" kind, in line with the delivery method. 

Rebels still held somewhat-nearby positions, like the police academy, and the US and allies are clear Syrian military hit themselves on accident while aiming for those fighters. Rebel activists said this at the time, with some claiming to witness a scud missile attack, and others seeing a fighter jet fire a missile or drop a bomb. Do we really buy this?

Noting the issues with blaming Syria for this incident, I earlier wrote "most importantly, Khan al-Assal was not the only alleged attack of the day. It was, and was perhaps meant as, just one part of a bigger picture. And in that bigger picture we might see a more workable logic to the the allegation." In fact, it seems the original plan was three attacks.

Damascus area, Ateibah

fighters recover from and describe the Ateibah attack

One other CW incident on the morning of March 19 is known: Al-Ateibah (alt. Otaybah, etc. - Arabic: العتيبة ) is a ways east of the capitol, at the southeast corner of East Ghouta. It's quite near the airport stricken on the 18th, for what that's worth. It was then occupied by opposition forces, some of whom were affected, they say, when a government rocket or missile landed near their position. It emitted “something like water, but it was dark. It emitted a very foul smell,” and caused serious medical problems. One "martyr" is seen in this clinic, apparently a fighter. (see new ACLOS page).

US-based "Syrian Support Group" claimed early on this and the Aleppo attack both were by the regime, using  pesticide-related Echothiophate, in scud missiles fired from Damascus (one with not very far to fly and the other missing its target). (statement via Twitter) But the US quickly clarified they saw no signs of scuds being fired at the time. (CNN). I forget if I've ever seen a revised version of what happened here. As for Khan Al-Assal, opposition claims shifted onto a regime fighter jet dropping a sarin bomb.

Opposition records eventually reflected seven people killed: the man who looks like a fighter, five civilian men, and an infant boy. Records suggest two of the civilian men men were teenage brothers, and the other three men were also brothers or relatives, with a rare, Aramaic name, suggesting they were from a Christian family. The baby, listed late, seems unrelated, but is said to be from an internally displaced (IDP) family from Harasta.

Saudi Backed Liwa al-Islam, based in the Damascus suburb of Douma but expanding its power over all of East Ghouta, would likely be behind it. They're suspects in two earlier low-key CW attacks in November 2012. These were reportedly in JaI turf and each killed one person, a displaced child from Douma in both cases. 3-19's displaced baby was from Harasta, next to Douma. The dark possibility is these families fled Islamist control in Douma/Harasta, only to have it expand and catch up with them in other areas. Along with the Aramaic name, these odd details support the possibility all these people were  hostages of the Islamists.

Liwa Al-Islam would wind up well-implicated in the August 2013 Ghouta massacre, where there's evidence they fired the associated rockets, and where the victims appear to be several hundred hostages gassed in confined spaces, at several locations across the area dominated by the group. (best sources...) Under their new name Jaish al-Islam, the same group is known to have been behind the genocidal December, 2013 Adra Massacre and mass abduction (ACLOS). They later opened branches outside Damascus, one of which in Aleppo in 2016 admitted some of its weaponized chlorine gas was used (without authorization, charges pending) against Kurdish fighters, killing several. (ACLOS)

Note: Liwa/Jaish Al-Islam (banner, then army of Islam) was founded by Zahran Alloush, who openly espoused stern Saudi-style Islamism, and genocidal rhetoric against Syrians of the Shia and Alawi faith. He was the son of an exiled Salafi preacher living in Saudi Arabia, and enjoyed support from the kingdom. They of all groups would be the ones to approach for any secret plans like this. (Zahran Alloush was later killed in a later Syrian airstrike, but his brother Mohamed Alloush remains the group's political leader and was even chosen to run the Saudi-backed opposition side for "peace talks" in Geneva.)

Homs, Baba Amr

So we have two likely coordinated chemical attacks in one day. The missing link that makes it both bigger and clearer, unfortunately, is not very clear. At an unknown time on the 19th, a third CW allegation was lodged, this time in in the central city of Homs. This has subsequently been missed or ignored by everyone, but was caught and noted here at ACLOS at the time.

The opposition Local Coordinating Committees (LCC) reported for March 19: “Homs: Several cases of asphyxia were reported in Baba Amr due to releasing toxic gases by the regime’s forces on the neighborhood." No further details were given. This could be the same poison as in one or both of the other cases, or not, by the vague description. No one else ever reported any more that I know of.  

The Baba Amr district, at the southwest corner of the city, was the prime rebel hotbed in Homs, but under heavy attack and about to fall. Reports were already calling it a ghost town by March 11. By the 19^th, soldiers would have been holding some areas, and rebels others, so both sides were present and either side could have been the targets here. This is somewhat similar to the Khan al-Assal situation.

A same-day Debkafile report cited "extensive preparations" for more chemical use by the Syrian army in Homs city. They cited "Western intelligence agencies" for telling them about a boosted military presence, with forces "issued in the last few hours with chemical warfare gear." These “preparations” quite likely came after the incident reported by the LCC. There's no mention of that from Debka, but this “gear” is quite likely gas masks. The SAA might have just been taking precautions against more terrorist incidents like the one in Aleppo, or that plus an actual gas release in Homs. There were no further toxic gas releases reported, once these "extensive preparations" were in place. There's still only the one faint report from just before...

Otherwise that I've seen, there's no report mentioning such an incident in Homs on this day, either in the following weeks or in the intervening years. It's not clear why it was briefly reported and then never repeated. Quite possibly, something went wrong with this false-flag plan, or with some other plan it was a part of.

Side-stuff to cover elsewhere: fleeing rebels and CW allegations in Baba Amr, rebel retreat and discovery of massacres around Abel to the south ... raising questions if those people had been meant to die in the CW attacks back in Baba Amr, but they couldn't swing that... this exact pattern plays out twice, in the Feb. 2012 and March 2013 government offensives to re-take Baba Amr. The CW link is new to me (2012 claims I didn't know brings this together and raises the possibility of a cennection in 2013 as well). The similarities even carry over to that, with extremely unclear or failed CW allegations in both cases.

The 3-19 Incidents In Review
Where: in or near each of Syria's 3 main cities, as each entry is listed below for simplicity: Aleppo, Damascus, Homs (in order of incident clarity)

When
Aleppo: ~7-7:30 am (UN report  0700, Syrian government says 0730 in same report. Both sound rounded-off. 7:30 is preferable).
Damascus: ~7:30-8:00 am? (first videos appear at 8:11 am).
Homs: unclear.

So note Damascus was likely after Aleppo incident, but not by much, or better yet - they came at about the same time. The vague range so far allows they could be up to an hour apart, but even then "within minutes" is accurate enough, and they might have been coordinated to the minute, say 7:35. Is this a Coincidence? No. Both events will require some planning. The planners will be on the same side, whichever that is.

what (the poison):
Aleppo: impure sarin. Damascus: unclear, likely the same. Homs: unclear, possibly the same. In more detail:

Aleppo: "The  munition  released gas on its impact. The air stood still and witnesses described a yellowish-green mist in the air and a pungent and strong sulfur-like smell." (see UN report) By reports, some people dropped dead or paralyzed instantly, while other suffered difficult breathing, heart problems, foaming at the mouth, confusion, pupil constriction and vision problems, and loss of consciousness, besides a strange itching.

 

Damascus: “something like water, but it was dark. It emitted a very foul smell,” and caused serious breathing problems, and others listed by James Miller as "bradycardia, vasodilation, nausea and vomiting, and bronchoconstriction." It seems likely the civilian fatalities were not killed by the rocket that affected those fighters, but instead gassed separately at the same time with  an unclear poison. One man has yellow fluid from the mouth, and possible cyanosis. The fighter seems to have yellow fluid as well. It's been reported or implied that biomedical or environmental samples from the Ateibah incident tested positive for sarin, but the details remain a little unclear, and any number of shell games are possible.

Homs: it caused suffocation is the only related detail we've found so far (could stand more digging, especially in Arabic-language reports, from years ago now...)

The UN "independent commission of inquiry" lists the Aleppo incident as entry #1 here, where the chemical agent "bore same unique hallmarks as in AlGhouta" - which they acknowledge was sarin (so they confirm the Russians in that regard), but from the Syrian military CW stockpile. By extension, the same was perhaps used in Ateibah (same source has no info, but lists it as incident #2 blamed on the government). Ghouta sarin is also linked to Khan Sheikhoun's sarin, and that to Saraqeb's sarin. It all seems the same: nasty, impure (60% purity, France says), with a foul organic decay-like odor, that burns the lungs and eyes ... it tends to be a dark or even black fluid (seen in Ateibah, in later attacks in Adra, and at least the 3-30 and 4-4 attacks this year), but the gas it puts off tends to be pale yellow or yellow-green, maybe appearing white, or usually not noticed (this part seems less clear). It also tends to have hexamine as some fixate on. 

Western experts first verified this sarin as killing someone in Saraqeb, weeks later on April 29. In that case it was neither a scud nor a jet, but some Jabhat al-Namechange hand grenades full of this stuff ... dropped from a regime helicopter, in glowing cinderblocks - or so the videos and reports claimed. This is what was in the Bashair 3 rocket fired on likely Shia civilians and SAA soldiers on March 19. This is what they mean by the stuff used in 2017 matching with the kind Syria has used before, and not with the kind actually known to be made by the government.  

How (delivery): 
Aleppo: locally made Bashair 3 rocket (vs. scud missile, jet bombing). Damascus: rocket/missile (not scud or anything that shows on radar). Homs: unclear.

Who (if not the regime side as alleged in each case):
Aleppo: Jabhat al-Nusra (Syria blames them)
Damascus: Jaish Al-Islam (educated guess)
Homs: unclear, perhaps Jabhat AL-Nusra, unless the Saudis have a special contact in Homs akin to Alloush on the Damascus front.

This all seems like a unified plan, with different sub-contracted actors using varied means based on their local situation.

Could That Be More Saudi Orders?

Chemical rockets on Damascus and Aleppo, and maybe Homs, just to to blame the regime for crossing the red line on a  nationwide scale - it's got some appeal as a plan. If this was all one plan, it wasn't a very good one, on the implementation end. In fact, it wound up a twisted flop. Opposition supporters has managed to use this, but barely. The US and others claim Syria deployed Sarin on two fronts this day, but it's not their proudest or clearest claim.

But it seems pretty likely, if not proven, this was all one plan. At least the core of incidents that did happen already strain the possibility of a coincidence. That unusual report that bubbled out of Homs just adds to it. It was som eone's badly executed plan. Not-so-good plans are the kinds the Saudis hatch up. "remember that "red line" thing? Yeah. Use the chemicals Turkey will be forwarding..." 

There's no direct and conclusive evidence I know of that this plan came from the House of Saud, but I deem them capable, and it seems possible. If so, it was apparently done by a different and non-monitored channels. Either no such orders were intercepted by the NSA - there are still ways to do that - or the intercept wasn't shared at the same level as this one. It's interesting in fact how the were seen conspicuously ordering the 3-18 attacks that might provoke part 2, but not the other part. It could suggest they didn't order the other part, as no orders were intercepted. 

If this were a unified package with each parts ordered separately, we would see the provocation, and that could be seen as reckless, questionable, but not seeing the other part, the main issue would be the escalation by the regime - gassing a few fighters and hundreds of innocents in every major city in response, especially in Homs, where entire families suffocated in their basement shelters?  Well, that part I imagined, but it might have been planned. But the Christian brothers, displaced babies, Syrian soldiers and likely Shia citizens were all killed, some on accident, with various improvised weapons and impure kitchen-grade sarin, all according to somebody's unified plan.

Motive re-considered: As noted, these events came a few days after the 2 year anniversary of the conflict. That was marked in the US, UK, and France by easing restrictions on financing rebels by individuals and nations. An American from Texas (Ghassan Hitto) was on the 18th elected the head of the Syrian National Coalition (Syria's legitimate government, according to the US). As CNN reported the council "said the decision should assuage the Obama administration's concerns about who would lead Syria should President Bashar al-Assad be deposed." Further, the top U.S. military commander in Europe - Adm. James Stavridis - said that NATO was laying out plans for possible military attacks on Syria, if an adequate reason should surface. Of course, president Obama had already offered one clear-sounding path to make this happen. As I noted in the earlier post:

Considering confluence of other people's decisions, it's clear that the morning of March 19 was an especially poor time for Damascus to cross Obama's red line of its own accord. Conversely, it would be a very opportune moment for any rebel provocateurs to do it for them.

I wasn't aware before that the day before had seen such provocative strikes in Damascus that could help explain the planned "revenge," charging across Obama's Red Line into a trap. That this materialized only makes sense, and that Saudi Arabia made it happen is no surprise. So it's worth wondering if they ordered up the fake revenge as well. I can't prove and don't even believe  that all this and the CW incidents are part of one unified package. But suddenly I can see that possibility, it seems plausible and logical, and it seemed worth sharing at least.

Al-Quds Hospital Blast: An Inside Job?

Adam Larson, aka Caustic Logic
March 1/2, 2017
last adds March 6

This famous subject should need little introduction, but a few basics and a few other details are helpful. This rebel-affiliated hospital in East Aleppo was supported by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF). After an alleged attack of April 27, 2016 it was originally declared by MSF "destroyed by at least one airstrike which directly hit the building, reducing it to rubble." They think it was hit twice; one strike damaged the entrance to the emergency ward, and another 5 minutes later destroyed the emergency room itself and the upper floors at once. It's not clear what kind of munitions were supposedly  used, "barrel bomb," missile, or what. After "recovering bodies from deep under the rubble," it was alleged 55 people were killed. (see ACLOS for more)

By now all agree the building appeared moderately damaged but totally intact at the time, and still does.

Note: the roof is not blown off  - there never was one. That's just a decorative wall around the edge of the roof - see Russian aerial view from April 29. That shows the roof is intact as well. Nothing blew in through the front wall, the side wall, or the roof.  It simply does not seem to have ever suffered a direct air attack. MSF acknowledged Al-Quds was back in operation after 20 days and some repairs. A reasonable conclusion , widely reached, is that the hospital was mildly damaged from a strike to a nearby building, and all else was probably just made up.

moment of detonation as seen in the main hall

This is clear to everyone by now, but it's based on views from the outside. That almost certainly does rule out an external attack, which was the allegation. But it doesn't address the security camera footage from inside the hospital that shows there was a powerful blast. Actually there are three blast scenes from three different cameras, and we'll consider all of them here. But one is most-often referred to (see frames at right, and bigger below).

This was presented as coming from outside, from the air strike. We're to presume this flash (and ensuing plumes of smoke and debris is from an aircraft's weaponry, blasting through this external wall, or coming in that doorway anyway.

But anyone who's bought that should look back above and ask which external wall this flash and blast came through. It couldn't be either, because they're intact. So, if not the outer walls ... what gives here?
 

How the Precedent Swings

It isn't essential, but helpful, to know from the start about the three previous attacks on the same hospital that were reported by MSF (September report). Twice, they heard (July and August, 2015), government barrel bombs were involved; both were aimed at other buildings, and only caused indirect damage, and caused no injuries. Until April 27, the most deadly incident at the hospital was this earlier and possibly illustrative episode:

• June 2014 - Gun fire /Kidnapping: A member of an armed group arrived to the hospital and demanded a service that was unavailable at the time. Angered by the refusal of service, the member of the armed group fired shots in the hospital and kidnapped a member of the staff. 1 hospital staff member killed and 1 kidnapped. ...

It seems the unnamed group had the perp's back, and it took a massive strike of sorts by all hospitals in east Aleppo to demand the group hand the hostage back unharmed. It's unclear if that happened.

(note: one later attack is listed in the report: Aug. 14, 2016 Al-Quds and another hospital (Zarzour) were hit the same day, right after al-Quds got its latest MSF supplies, which were likely all ruined and had to be re-sent. )

Presumptions have been that the April attack was more like the 2015 "barrel bomb" attacks. Something else - maybe legitimate - was the target, and al-Quds took some flak. And it may be so in this case, but we may have two answers; it was reportedly hit with two direct attacks. And as we'll see, that answer can't cover the alleged, deadly, and multi-part second strike. And it might not apply at all.

Could this be more like the 2014 incident, but more extreme? Ain Jalout school, a base for Jabhat al-Nusra, was destroyed in a first air strike of the night, just minutes before the hospital, MSF heard. That's too far off to have damaged the hospital, but it was then flooded with their fighters, wounded and maybe frustrated at times ... Something happened. It seems something near the entrance, and the emergency room both blew up. Maybe someone blamed the hospital for a friend's death, for example, shot up the entrance, and threw some grenades into the the E.R.

But even that would fail to explain the evidence we'll consider now. (see also ACLOS talk page where I started this, and will likely continue, besides adding to the front page, etc.)

Dr. Maaz Walks into a Blast?

Among a reported six staff members and some 49 patients and others that were allegedly killed in the attack, the most famous victim is a Dr. Muhamad Maaz. He was said to be the last pediatrician "in Aleppo," meaning rebel-held east Aleppo, until he was killed in the second blast. 

It's said he left the intensive care ward and was about to start his night shift in the emergency room. It's 8:39:05 by time-stamp (the time is apparently off, early by about an hour). The following is important. Note he's seen on three different floors in sequence, down one flight of stairs, then over (around the broken elevator) and down the next. I didn't know floors, so to avoid confusion, I gave them letters - d,c,b, with room for "a" below if needed. It turns out the final hallways is the the main hall, connected to the main entrance we've seen, on the ground floor, so b=1, c=2, d=third floor. 

cnn vid https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1Wg-xeUUnY

We've established there were five above-ground levels, plus the walled roof. We also heard from MSF that the second blast destroyed the upper two floors. But that's unproven; they aren't shown at all here among what seems to be the bottom three. (There's probably a basement level or even 2 of them, but that's probably irrelevant.)

The stairwell should always be on the same side of the hall, and it is - the right side. So these cameras are all facing the same way and there's no confusion. (There are 2 stairwells on floor 1, but the one on the left must only go down, as there's no second set on the upper floors)

Maaz  passes floor c, and gets to floor b at 8:40:53, with an awkward step. A guy looks at him. He pauses, adjusts his booties for a long shift, and walks towards camera 13 and towars the main entrance. He turns off-frame at 8:41:02. Then suddenly it's 8:42:12, and flash. Below are two consecutive frames. Between them, digits change too much, and the sliver of a barely-open door in the background disappears (lime green box).

This edit is in both versions of the footage, so it was done before it was handed over to Channel 4 and CNN Arabic (and, it seems, no one else). It's not clear this proves any deception, or just a dramatic cut. It wouldn't be a good deception. News reports tend to say he walks off-frame, and then "moments later," the blast. Is it more like 2 moments, or 70? Maybe they don't want to step on anyone's toes, and don't specify.

The 1:10 is not all missing: 28 seconds is missing, then (earlier in the video sequence) three guys wheel out a person on a gurney (time:8:41:30-8:41:43 - that's after Maaz entered). Then there's 29 second unseen, then the blast. (see blasts timeline below) How this adds up is unclear, but it's established.

This should be emergency room - Dr. Muhammad Maaz was said to be on his way to work there when he died, and MSF heard it hit there, so he must have been there, and that must be it. Whatever it is, there's no video footage from there. It must have all been destroyed? The video New York Times got of the aftermath briefly pans over the other door(s) into the room (between the red and green boxes above), - see 1:43. It has gurneys and seems burned, is all we can say from the quick blur. No photos of it were released.

So, Maaz walks in ... presumably stays ... and after a minute or so a strange blast. Below, see on the left horizontal puffs of smoke through ... the windows of doors on the left, or something in that area, either in or on the other side of that wall.  Then the flash, then the blast wave. This seems to be right on the other side of that left wall and detonating there - the door to the left and those windowed doors likely open on the same room behind that wall. Did someone have a bomb inside the emergency room and detonate it?

Blast on Floor C and the Opposing Blasts Problem

At the same moment, 8:42:12 by time-stamp, there's a blast - presumably the same one - seen on the second floor (c). Camera 5 shows a woman is standing in the corner (top left frame below). First we see light smoke, coming from high, possibly down the stairwell (bottom left frame, and note as the windows shows a new light outside). Depth is hard to read clearly here. But then an odd, small flash occurs, up high somewhere in that same area. Then heavy black smoke rolls in from the right, as the wallpaper is blown off the opposite wall (bottom right), and then a door flings open as smoke billows around. After, the woman is down and still. Later, people are giving her, or someone, blood for their injuries.

Here's the problem: the stairwell is on the right side of the hall in each case. On floor C, the blast comes from the right, the stairwell side (compare to Dr. Maaz's walk above). As shown above, the smoke and apparently the flash on floor b come from the left side. Double-check that if needed. These must be two different blasts, coming from opposite directions, but all at once. 

Logically, there can't be any outside attack from two opposite directions. Whether it's front-and-back or left-and-right, one missile would have to plow through other buildings first before they met in the middle at the same time. And, of course, the other would have to pass through walls that we can see weren't passed through. 

But where else can two different blasts in the same building come from? Maybe ... different rooms? Was this completely an "inside job?"

The External Portion

Now we turn to the third of three blasts seen, providing an exterior aspect. I guess we're supposed to presume this is where the missile or barrel bomb hit. I thank My Home Syria on Youtube for bringing this to my attention (analysis, part 2, about 3 min. in). It seems the same pre-smoking explosion is seen here in front of the hospital. So how does this connect?

Here are two views compared, from the two and only known versions of the footage (CNN Arabic: top, and Channel 4 (UK), bottom (not the best copy, sorry).) Marked in each: the median's near edge, top of the light pole, and a white van parked up against the pole.  The van is visible in the CNN view (an earlier scene). That video doesn't show the important scene. Channel 4's does, but it's obscured under government blame.

I have my reservations, but there's a case to be made this blast lines up just with the back half of that van. For a few frames before, I think we see some little puffs of smoke about there, similar to the pre-blast smoke inside. Then it flashes - first, seems like the van is just glowing, right along its edge. Is that a blast wave?  It's a low light, on that or a similar line (see shrubbery shadows below).

However, the light may be at the wrong angle for that, and the van may remain intact ... more analysis to see if I can figure out how to figure that out. Exact location not set, but it will be approximately in front of the entrance.
--
(Add 3/2: it seems likely the blast is a bit behind that van, not in it. Earlier, the space behind the van is empty. But later we can't see if anyone pulled in behind after the last footage. If it was a white car, maybe ... I don't see a white car. Could another kind, or none. Maybe the blast is at the entrance, but it's apparently not inside the entrance (the light is very bright and expansive, not narrowed as if shining through a doorway) So, it's an outside blast, but the finer details are unclear so far. It could even be a mortar strike, but it seems to line up very perfectly with these other blasts, and seems similar, so likely, it's something on the ground, and on the same timer).   

--

After this, the detonation flares again (secondary blast, or just video artifact? It's very quick), and a cloud of smoke and large, amber-colored sparks rise up and swirl on the wind. The color might suggest aluminum particles, like from a missile tube or a vehicle that blew up. Later, we'd see a blown-up and crushed car, and no sign of this van, but the scene needs more analysis to see what makes most sense.

Unlike the others, this blast has started a fire that's still burning five minutes later (see timeline below). Blown-up vehicles will do that.
---

Add 3-6: Video of the obscured scene - the blast clearly is not in the van, but behind it and closer to, or perhaps at/in the entrance. There may be related objects in the moments before that, small and white, moving around the van. But these are hard to separate for sure from the many blowing dust particles and their related video artifacts (tracers and echoes).

And notes from after the smoke clears (not shown here): we see a van driving off. It may be a different van. The camera has shifted views so we can't see that area. The light has been knocked off its pole and left dangling (as it would be seen the next day). Some apparent power lines, however, were already down. They seem to be laying across the van, and are illuminated there by the flash (see video). 

---
Inside Job?

At the same moment, the same kind of smoke-then-explosion occurred, probably, then explosion in multiple spots. I have no guess what this is - that's not my area. In my tentative mapping at right, they're clearly in three different spots. The blue line is Dr. Maaz. (also at the top/back is floor 2's hall and window superimposed)

- Outside the entrance is different from inside the E.R., where smoke is coming out the other doors before the blast. So that isn't just an outside bomb shining in here.
- The other one is upstairs and already shown to be unconnected.

Logically, this almost has to be an inside job, by the kind of guy with keys to different rooms. He might have  a grudge, got hooked up with rival jihadists, or helped steal all the money. A guy like that might agree to plant bombs and fake his own death, etc. He may have walked off, dropped a final bomb in a parked car. Or perhaps others helped with some, or all of it.

Maybe it was meant to line up with this video proof to show an outside-to-inside "attack" - at least to the gullible. Because the "air strike" did this deadly and well-coordinated work  all without leaving a mark on the outside walls or roof. It's brilliant! ... sort of. Not really, when you're going to blame an air strike. What were they thinking? We'll never know.

Who were they? We might know that someday soon. One suspect is pretty obvious, but that could be a tricky illusion. Dr. Maaz might just be an innocent victim.

But we don't need to name suspects anyway, just show that it's got nothing to do with the government's much-frustrated efforts to reclaim Aleppo from the occupying terrorists.

How does it line up with a presumably legitimate strike on the Jabhat al-Nusra base minutes before? This was "at exactly 9:37 pm" as HRW heard, and the hospital was hit around 9:45 and 9:50, with a "staff residence" nearby hit in between, around 9:40 (all estimates - only the Nusra base has an exact time.) First, that base was already mostly-destroyed, I hear. It's not clear another strike even made sense. JaN might have blown the remainder themselves, and then continued the "regime attack" into something blame-worthy. And then, if that was a government hit, maybe the terrorists were waiting for it, and launched the follow-on "hospital attack" for them as soon as those bombs fell. That's two ways it could line up fine.

Now let' re-consider the first blast near the hospital. It was just as outside as that apparent coordinated car bomb was. Was it part of the same inside job? If this was pre-planned, odds are slim that something nearby, 5 minutes earlier, was anyone else' plan.

In fact, it might be the trigger to Dr. Maaz it was time for shift change. Everyone else runs around wondering what that was (on the second floor, at 8:37:57 - men go down to look, women stand by). But one floor above, he seems unaware or unconcerned. One minute later (8:39:05), with 3 minutes left before the other half of this "double-tap," he's locking the door, and putting the key in his pocket. To me, this seems strange in itself. He heads down to the ER with his heavy shoulder bag (to die?), passing fairly near the supposedly damaged entrance (with no sign of damage, commotion, or worry, and no sideways glance from the doctor). He acts as if nothing unusual is going on. Then the video record breaks and things get fuzzy.

What about that locked door on the third floor? That floor isn't shown after he leaves it.  It's perhaps exactly above the blast on level 2. Layout suggests the window seen on floor 2 faces the back of the building, maybe on a breezeway between buildings (it must extend further back than it seems relative to the stairwell).

If so, the light must be reflecting off concrete from ... the window of the floor above. The first floor main hall ends in a wall, that's part of the side entrance hallway. So any back window there would not allow light from the ER or entrance-area blasts. It can;t be from 1 (no window), or 2 (no detonation yet), so it must be higher, and apparently just a bit.

So it seems likely there was a third-floor blast of some power. If so, the detonation there was a split-second before this one. So is what we see that blast breaking through the floor, or a separate one rigged up beneath it? This could be a visual minimum of four separately-placed bombs.

Or it could just be three - the difference is pretty minimal. This could still bear more professional scientific and/or criminal investigation to build a legally admissible and unassailable case. But I'm calling it proven already. The al-Quds hospital bombing, blamed on the the Syrian government, was clearly an inside-job, with origins somewhere in the brutal and deceptive culture of terrorist-occupied Syria. It means you can't trust these "activist" sources. It means all the condemnations and demands placed on Syria over this "unacceptable violation" have been misdirected. Will there ever be any furor from the same quarters that's properly directed? I doubt it. Someone else will have to take up this case.

Reference: Blasts timeline
(note: Video time-stamp are off by about (and maybe exactly) one hour from MSF-reported times - refer to fuller CNN Arabic version)

• interior footage starts 8:37:57, with commotion on floor "c" suggesting a noise outside, nearby, that people are a bit worried about (0:10 in the video). Men go downstairs to investigate, women go back in the rooms. Time estimate for that noise then is about 8:37:30-50. No sign of any damage, smoke etc. inside at this point, from any camera view. (could this be slow reaction to the semi-distant Ain Jalout strike at "exactly 9:37?" Or the first strike at the hospital's entrance? If it's the former, then there's no reaction to any nearer strike. This is the only commotion we see before the blasts inside.)
• 8:39:05 (video) - Dr. Maaz locks the room on floor "d", then goes downstairs
• 8:39:35 - external camera shows possible dust from earlier strike blowing on the wind, no new explosions.
• 8:40:53-8:41:02: floor "b" Dr. Maaz walks into (emergency room?) (1:04 in the video)
• 8:41:30-8:41:43 - floor "b" patient rolled from (ER?) down the hall, into another door (0:30 in the video)
• 9:45 (app.): MSF estimates first "direct attack"  on the hospital, damaging the entrance to the emergency room

- second blast(s):

• 8:42:12 floor "b" - smoke, the big blast (from E.R.?)
• 8:42:12 floor "c" - smoke, then small blast (from above, stairwell side?)
• 8:42:12 external - smoke, then a bright, low-level, sparkling blast with no rubble, some smoke (from below, in or by a parked van?)
• 8:47:02, external -seems the building, or truck, still burning? Bright fire and smoke rising from below.
• 9:50 (app.): MSF estimates second direct air strike hits emergency room and/or the 2 upper floors

Syria Chlorine Allegations: The Baytounji Family

Syria Chlorine Allegations: The Baytounji Family
Adam Larson aka Caustic Logic
February 19-20, 2017 
additions 2-24, 3-14

A recent HRW report relates a string of eight alleged chlorine attacks last November and December, as the government of Syria re-conquered rebel-held east Aleppo (Monitor analysis,  see also ACLOS page and talk page) An incident in the early hours of November 20 is the deadliest in the set, and worth some scrutiny.

The yellow chlorine cylinder dropped from a helicopter, "witnesses" say, is shown in a damaged home, with some other junk on top of it (right, from a video linked in the HRW report).
Note 2-24: I'll probably be reviewing the videos and doing some scene analysis in time, which might reveal more clues. But so far, no review or notes.

Activists claim a family of six lived here, and all perished here. A mother, a father, and four children, just sat there and died. Having lost consciousness at the outset, they breathed too much of the caustic gas before anyone could carry them out.

But as I'm in the process of explaining in a definitive way (done, link), that makes no actual, scientific sense, no matter how often it's repeated. Chlorine does not really cause unconsciousness, at least not instantly. In fact if one were already passed out, it might wake them up like smelling salts, as the lungs start burning, and then the eyes. Realistically, they might sleep through a bit of it, but then get out the door at least before collapsing, and finally die later on at the hospital.

But here, as in many cases before, we hear that all victims were found inside the home, perhaps still in their beds (there's no video of them in situ, just verbal descriptions, which are vague - a local saw five of them, all inside, "a mother, father and three children. Their faces were blue." (HRW))

Who were they? A Christian Family?

This Reuters report is the only source to offer a partial identification for the slain family. "Two medics said the al-Baytounji family had suffocated to death because the barrel bomb, which fell in the Sakhour district at about midnight, had been laced with chlorine gas." The HRW report passes this on, but they couldn't verify it. The SOHR couldn't verify the name, or the chlorine. 

The opposition VDC is the same, listing them perhaps as unidentified, killed by barrel bomb, not gas. They seem to list no one by this name dying, in the whole conflict - but they may list these anyway:

Sakhour, Aleppo, killed 11-20, all by Syrian air strikes - 10 civilians, all "unidentified."

• 5 Adult-Male = men or blank
• 1 Adult-Female
• 4 Child-Male = perhaps "child, blank," so may include girls

This could be the reported family of six plus four others, men or blank, related or not, unclear. Presumably it's four others killed, in alleged shelling but presumably not by chlorine. All entries seem to blame "Helicopter shelling" with "explosive barrels," but maybe it was those yellow tanks, and the VDC's sources didn't get the memo in the chaos. That they didn't get the names either supports that.

That name - Baytounji - is interesting. It may be a Christian one. I was able to assemble it in Arabic from scratch: بيتونجي. I plugged this into the VDC and found nothing. I tried some internet searches and found it appears occasionally as a word that won't translate, but sounds right: (phonetics given as "bytwnjy") and not usually as a name. I found only one result that made sense and seems to be a name- an old essay in Arabic, maybe from Turkish or verbal records, relating to "construction of St. George's church district Syriacs" (Syrian Christians) in the 1930s. "After the stability of the Syriac community in the city of Aleppo," the auto-translation says, "the Rev. Joseph priest (alqas yusif qsaan) of the Syriac Orthodox Church" is involved. They needed a new church, or at least a new roof, and one guy involved was apparently named (as Google translate gives it), "Mr. Ibrahim Hajjar Betonge" with the last name being the Arabic بيتونجي. He was maybe a donor; in 1933 someone asked him for "share for the construction of the roof..."

Note 3-14: See below, name considered, for more on this name. Also noting St. George's Church in Aleppo is likely the same one currently labeled on Wikimapia, near but not in present Assyrian district. In 1933, it was said to be in the Assyrian (Christian) quarter.

So it's a very rare name, linked to Syrian Christians around Aleppo. Here, as Islamist rebels are about to flee parts of that same city and can't take hostages with them, a family of this rare name dies, blamed on chlorine... Add 2-21: A CNN report refers to these same victims: a neighbor says "the victims weren't activists or anything ... but they were suffocating so much, they turned blue." In fact, research suggests they might have been the kind that not only doesn't support the Sunni extremist rebellion,but that sometimes get kidnapped by it.

How Did They Die? 

As the group view (again at right) shows, the children at least did get out of bed and get dressed up in daytime clothes, pretty quickly after this "shortly after midnight" attack... strange that. But they have no shoes on their feet. This may be a fist step of basic body processing (before full stripping, washing, wrapping, and then burial). But shoes are often removed before an Islamist executes you. Note: hostages aren't given pajamas to sleep in, and don't even have to die at the stated time. And they don't need shoes if they aren't going anywhere.

But shoes or not, they didn't get out the door in time, and died inside from the chlorine gas. But these don't look like normal chlorine deaths. That causes red, irritated or damaged eyes, skin burns, coughing up blood and mucous, and often cyanosis, a blue color shift in the skin. What we see here is something quite different.

The visuals come from the two known videos:

* Group video on Youtube: +18 The New Holocaust made by Putin & Assad in Aleppo  20-11-2016. The same on Facebook for now, better resolution, stills used below.
* SyrianArchve.org copy of truck video, described "One family (4 children and their parents) have died as a result of suffocation caused by the chlorine barrel bomb attack"

Very troubling, graphic images (mid-size - larger view is optional in new window), ordered youngest to oldest, or left-to-right in the group video, numbered for reference (V=victim): for each composite view, it's seen in pickup (left), and seen in group video (right):

V1 apparent baby girl

 

V2, boy

 

V3, girl

 

V4, boy

V5, the father (off-frame in group view, seen in truck view):

 

V6, the mother: unseen (women often not shown, maybe just for modesty, or for dying differently, or getting sold off instead?).
Possible V7-10 (per VDC's list of 10 victims of this "barrel bombing") also unseen. 

I don't know immediately what this might be, but it's not standard chlorine poisoning, certainly not any passive falling-asleep-at-home kind. Again, they're all dressed at midnight here, but somewhere they can't get out of. The extermination method is something messed up. But it's partly some kind of chemical, possibly chlorine, in a very high dose, but something else at least in part. Here are some visual notes:

• The children, especially V3 and V4, look almost baked or dried out, like an old orange, or maybe people hanged up in a smokehouse - dark stains with lighter areas - heavy smoke-staining, largely washed off? (see V1, side of face, and all have wet clothes) Some kind of cap attempted? (lighter patch starting near the hairline, V1 and V2) Made to breathe smoke is a sign of abusive captivity by Islamists. General stained appearance, slightly red-orange, seems odd though, a possible gas clue.
• Cap or not, some of the victims' hair sticks up, and seems crusted that way (V1, V2, V5) - were they left hanging upside down for a time, in a particulate-dense environment (like a smokehouse)? Perhaps minus hair washing for a while? Falling gas canisters can't do that to their victims.
• they don't seems visibly starved, but might be badly dehydrated
• deep, dark rings around the eyes, as if super-tired (unclear what this suggests, likely poison-related, maybe a slow death) Note 2-23/24: Important! Split-off to below: Raccoon Eyes?
• Cyanosis: not so clear with smoke/whatever, but maybe in all (see lips, purple), and maybe in V2's face (blue-ish)
• white, vacant, rolled up, rheumy eyes - not bloodshot or seeming damaged like with chlorine (or is that just the white residue? see below)
• no clear sign of (much) mucous or blood coughed up, as with chlorine, but gasping as if they couldn't breathe (V2 mas some blood smear around his mouth)
• white residue: on v4's face, around nose, corner of mouth, on V3 (girl) along upper eyelids (as if upside-down), and possibly on her sweater (as if right-side-up?). I guess this is mucous that reacted with the chemical, and fizzed up into this. 
• I've seen similar before, with many "Caesar photo" victims, who were clearly tied upside down, but that tends to be bright yellow, and more copious. Here, in the nose and eyes, holding the eyelids open. "Prisoner #" j-2218, in the March, 2013 folder.
• Other "Caesar photos" victims resemble the children here, at least a bit... it's not the usual look there, nor quite the same as here, but for what it's worth: 227-411, 1-11-2012, 227-2182 24-6-2013, a better example I've seen but can't re-locate now... one with extra smoke. But none is quite the same - this is something I've never quite seen before.
• The father's face seems different, not as dark, no white residue, wetter, smooshed, apparently laid on his face, but probably after death, maybe after being cut down... his hair seems to stick up too. 
• V4 has an odd dark spot on his belly they don't bother covering up. Is that a bruise? Did someone punch him in the belly a few days before this?  
• Add, 2-23: V2 is the bluest, but his blue is perhaps not cyanotic - it may be more bruise-colored and mottled like bruises, blending into burns on the left side. Was he beaten about the face shortly before he died? Is a boy hanging upside down an attractive punching bag to salafi terrorists? Perhaps. But unlike the others, this victim doesn't really seem to have any black eyes or possible raccoon eyes, nor sign of a broken nose. So why suspect him of getting punched?

Added 2-24: Raccoon Eyes?
The Reuters report notes the video "showed the corpses of four children stretched out on a floor, their lips blue and dark marks around their open eyes."  These don't seem to be 'marks,' but the color of the skin there. This might be of great interest.

V1, V4 and V5 at least seem to have these heavy, dark rings. V2 doesn't clearly*, and V3 probably does. This could be a more general kind of "black eyes" or "dark rings" in the extreme, but a source tips me off that these might be "raccoon eyes" (properly: periorbital ecchymosis - Wikipedia). Usually, 85% of the time people say, these are caused by a basal skull fracture, tearing the dura meter, between the brain and the skull. The tissue bleeds, and it pools up inside the skull, visible under the thin skin of the eyes. Such a fracture is most often to the anterior cranial fossa - something has hit a person hard in the back of the head, at the bottom part of the skull just above the neck. Note the backs of heads aren't seen to rule this out. And the toddler's head looks possibly misshapen, with eyes askew.
*V2 may have subgaleal hemorrhage - bleeding between the skull and scalp - if that can happen from the same (externalized to outside the skull somehow), and extend all over the face - maybe the blood from his dura mater is spreading here first, and barely pooling in the eyes. My theory, running it by my source.
Note 3-14: That wasn't a good theory. Rather, my source suggests he might have had his face badly scalded at some point, and this is partly healed, with uneven areas of red and blue discoloration. I can see that. I'm not convinced, but it's a possibility that suggests abusive detention for some time prior to death.). 

Maybe ... I'm checking if this must be periorbital ecchymosis, or possibly some other dark rings/black eye effect. If it is the real deal ... the 85% likelihood of fracture is under normal circumstances. In Syria now, and maybe in an Islamist dungeon, that may not apply. But other causes of this tend to be other damage in the same area of the skull, from surgery or sometimes from cancer there, and (never?) poison-induced, from tiredness, or a simpler injury like a punch in the eyes. So if these are proper raccoon eyes, in several members of one family, it's about 99.5% likely someone hit them all in the back of the head some time prior to the chlorine attack. Maybe the canister managed to whack each of them as it landed? This effect may take a day to form. Maybe they were knocked unconscious by their captors, or simple home invaders, before tying them up for the first part of a slow gassing, and the rings are still forming in these videos from several hours later? 

Add 3-14: to clarify the options:
* Raccoon eyes (caused only by injuries to the skull lining, here almost certain to be violent).
* Bruised or "black" eye, of the punched-in-the-eye sort  ( The difference between this or a skull fracture doesn't matter; there's no place in the rebel story for anyone breaking in to the home and beating the family up before the chlorine attack. I doubt this is: that usually hurts the eye too, disrupting blood vessels, and we already noted they don't seem the have this, nor any other sign of face-punching)
* Regular dark rings (Wikipedia: periorbital dark rings), which are caused by any combination of anemia, low blood oxygen (suffocation included), fatigue/lack of sleep, excess eye-rubbing, or any poison or medication that dilates blood vessels. Many dead people will have these, and that might be what we see here ... or part of it anyway.

I'm still not 100% certain what this is, but I lean to the first option. Periorbital ecchymosis vs. dark rings seems (by images) to be different in filling the entire eye socket pretty evenly with blood, above and below the eye, swelling both lids (see Wikipedia photo, or an image search with some extreme (graphic) examples). Standard dark rings start at the lower corner and spread mainly over just the area beneath the eye, not usually above, or to a much lesser degree. Check the upper eyelid in the ecchymosis photos where the bottom darkness prevails, and you'll see that part's darker, but it's all darkened and is or will be black, then brown, etc. like a bruise. Also, see the Baytounjis above compared to the eyes of the Caesar photos victim beneath: he's got dark rings and puffiness, and the family has something different.

So, I'm pretty sure someone hit them all in the head a day or more prior to the gassing. The assault may have been 2-3 days before these video were taken.These eye rings look non-swollen, non-red, sliding to brown, and maybe about 1/3 healed (possibly deniable - it looked bad at first, and by this point people might think that's just dark rings, from the chlorine or whatever). I'm no stranger to deciding on things that the rebel story left no room for, and I have adequate reason to do the same here. Sorry to ramble a bit in getting there.   
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Name Considered (Added 3-14)
Of course one hit in an internet search isn't much to go on to call this a likely Christian family. But ... I looked into it more, and it still seems a good point to me. An indirect Syrian contact tells me the name بيتونجي means expert in concrete, or concrete mason, from the French béton, for conctete. ("ji" I guess means worker in). I couldn't find easy verification of this, but oddly I think this strengthens the value of the clue. 

In Google Translate, I tried concrete, cement, and béton and none directly translated to the root baytoun ( بيتون ). The current general Arabic for cement is Asmant, apparently from the English. Baytound doesn't even appear as an alternate translation for any of the three. Was it only used up to a point in time? Or maybe it's too limited in space to appear here?

One source I can now make sense of uses the word in a non-name sense: A Facebook post from a construction-oriented account (prefabricatedhousesdgror, fond of adobe and masonry as well) shows a small, heart-shaped cement pool full of water, with shovel laid across it. The text is two words that translate "Baytounji lover." Okay. That's cement/concrete work. (I'm hazy on the difference). The heart-shaped pool is "near Latakia," by post details, and by related links the person who used that phrase may be in or near Tartous province. 

Others sources appearing in a search that use the word:
www.shaamtimes.net (Syria), syria-news.com/ (Syria), www.sauress.com (?), a re-post from Al-Manar, (Lebanon), https://sh22y.com (Syria, I think?). That's almost all of them. It's not used widely by al-Jazeera or anyone else. It's a local term used mainly in Syria. Huh!

And as a name, it still appears only in Aleppo that I've seen. It's seemingly associated with the Christian community there (but not certainly linked, and maybe not exclusively). If that's the real name of this killed family, nothing is proven, but a very troubling possibility would seem pretty likely to be the truth. So why would they go ahead and say the name? Well, it's so rare ... well, someone in Syria should be able to recognize it and match up any missing Christian family of that name. So partly, it's "good question," and partly "they just don't care."

In summary:
A likely Christian family in Aleppo with captivity clues was likely hanged upside down and murdered with some horrible gas and/or smoke. This happened as Islamist rebels liquidated property before fleeing to Idlib in the amnesty deal, and as they sought (always) to blame the government for fresh crimes. The mother might have been killed differently. There's no reason to suspect any aircraft were involved in this tying up and gas-roasting-??, aside from that yellow tank in someone's home and the story behind it.

Totally unseen, a woman just sat there and died Nov. 23 (and she's unidentified by everyone), two people Dec. 8 (both men named, but some disagree on one's gender), perhaps two other on  Nov. 28 (unidentified and no age/gender specified), and perhaps five more on December 9 (unidentified and no age/gender specified). But the precedent set by these barely-named first deaths is not good, as we see people getting more and more vague about who's dying here.

Human Rights Watch refers to this same family death, with less detail, and to the other cases with almost no detail. They fill in the gaps with a nonsense story from Islamist activists, and make moral pronouncements as if they know the truth now. Ole Solvang, deputy emergencies director at Human Rights Watch, is quoted saying “The United Nations Security Council shouldn’t let Syrian authorities or anyone else who has used chemical weapons get away without consequences.” To back that up, "Human Rights Watch called on the Syrian government to immediately stop using chemicals as weapons," and may have offered complete impunity to the actual killers, as they left east Aleppo Scott-free in a line of green buses.