A Russian War on Ukrainian Civilians?

March 16, 2025

(rough, incomplete)

As a 2023 Human Right Watch report put it, "Russia unleashed a full-scale invasion, bringing death and suffering to millions of Ukrainian civilians" with its invasion of Ukraine the previous year. Since then, it says, "Russian forces have killed, raped, tortured, deported, or forcibly transferred civilians to Russia or Russian-occupied areas."  

In this article, we'll consider only the "killed" part, with an emphasis on civilians. I'm not as focused on injuries, important and terrible as they can be, but broadly speaking, the pattern I see (at least for civilians) is close to 2 injured for every fatality. So multiplying any deaths total by 3 should give you an idea of total casualties including wounded.

Following Russia's 2022 invasion, estimates of civilian deaths very widely between 12,600 (verified minimum from a recent OHCHR report) and, by tallying regional totals from Wikipedia, between 20,000 and 35,000, with Mariupol being the biggest variable (estimates there range from 10-20,000 in most sources, with over 25,000 killed per this list, citing other credible media reports).

Military losses, estimates, per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War 

Ukrainian Forces: 60,000-120,000 killed

Russian forces: 167,000-234,700 killed. 

Peoples' Republics forces (Russian-supported separatists): 21,000-23,500

Total military deaths since 2022: 260,000-413,200

So comparing 12.6k-35k civilians to the above, we get a death ratio somewhere between 0.03 civilians for each militant (0.03:1 or 3:100) to 0.14 civilians per (0.14:1 / 14/100). As we'll see, either number is remarkably low by world standards. 

Now let's consider the war's first phase, before Russia undeniably entered the field, the 2014-2019 "Anti-Terror Operation" in the Donbas and the 2015-2021"ceasefires" period following the Mink Accords (note the years of crossover) 

Estimated total killed: 14,000-14,300 

- 6,500 fighters of the Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples' Republics 

- 4,400 Ukrainian fighters, 

- 3,100-3,400 civilians 

(3100-3400) civilian deaths vs. 10,900 military ones = 0.3 civilians for each militant. That's 2-10x as bad as during Russia's invasion. And as I'll explain below, that's probably >80% killed by Ukraine.

Some prior estimates of civ:mil death ratios in select conflicts, all of them outside Europe, suggests a global double-standard (citing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualty_ratio):

US -> Korea 3:1

US -> Vietnam 2:1

US -> Iraq: 3:1 down to 0.5:1 (counts vary widely)

US -> Afghanistan: 0.4:1 (may be higher) 

Israel -> Lebanon 1982: 4:1 or even 6:1

Gaza 2023-now: Probably at least 4:1 (counts vary widely)

Even Ukraine's brutal attacks on the Donbas (see below) yield a better rate than any of these, at 0.3 civilians for each militant, with the separatist side causing some of the deaths. Russia's invasion and Ukraine's response cuts the civilian deaths in half, to 0.14:1 or even lower.  And even of this small number, Ukraine contributes much of it - and probably most of it, directly with ongoing shelling of the Donbass, and indirectly as in occupied Mariupol. 

As I see it from middling study (on average - high in spots, low in others), there are 5 sets of circumstances allowing for some Ukrainian hand in killing civilians, even or especially where the Russians had invaded and were doing their own killing: 

1) Russian-occupied Donbass, Crimea, etc.: ethnic Russian in Russian-occupied lands killed in Ukrainian shelling, bombing & missile attacks. See below for some highlights of the first 8 months of the "Anti-Terror Operation" in 2014. This eventually mellowed, but the same kind of scale returned in 2022. 

2) Ukraine-occupied Donbass (occupied ethnic Russians, expendable in some minds = human shields, especially when the Russians are close to liberating an area) - est. 2,958 killed since 2022 in Donetsk oblast, both sides included, but excluding Mariupol and Volnovakha (Ukrainian occupied)

3) Mariupol (same as above but in a major, coastal, strategic city that served as the capitol of occupied Donetsk - Mariupol wound up flattened and massacred as a severe example - an area I studied in some detail: https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/03/who-is-really-flattening-mariupol.html and should revisit, considering it may account for 10,000 to 25,000 or around 50-70% of all civilian deaths. Mainly, Ukraine weaponized the city to kill Russians, firing from every building, getting them wrecked in response, with little or even negative regard to civilian harm. My research suggests the Azov Brigade, not the Russians, blew up the drama theater on March 16, killing perhaps just a few dozen people they chose not to evacuate, for their own murky reasons, rather than the 1,200 widely reported. The very high counts might include this bigger number and might thus inflate the death toll there. Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Mariupol Theater Bombing, 3/16/2022

4) Bucha circumstances / parts of Kyiv Oblast were the 2nd deadliest after Donetsk, 1,569 civilians killed - occupied by Russia but partly sympathetic - massive violence used, killing innocents with heavy shelling, with likely execution of suspected collaborators after liberation -Many posts here: https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/search/label/Bucha%20Massacre - ignore all purple-shaded maps - another important issue to revisit. It was a mixed bag, with some definite Russian crimes, like executing 7 captive TDF fighters and the man sheltering them, and other brutality, if it often seems accidental.

5 The rest that was briefly occupied by Russia but I know less about (maybe like Bucha but varied, usually less severe?)

In Kyiv, there were only some 200 deaths total, probably most of these from missiles Ukraine shot down over the city to prevent another hit to their soldiers. This isn't a major factor, and it applies on the other side as well. One of the deadliest attack on Donetsk, on March 14, 2022, saw 23 civilians killed in a single, unusual attack with a Tochka-U missile and cluster bomblets, after it was shot down by DPR forces right over downtown, complicating the blame for what happened.

More Deaths on the Russian Side

"On 17 February 2023, the Ukrainian prosecutor general announced that at least 461 children had been killed since the start of the invasion, with a further 923 wounded.[153] Most of these child victims were from the Donetsk region.[153]"

"Russia does not allow monitoring in territories it controls, where civilian deaths are thought to be highest." 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

May 28, 2024: 282 children have been killed and 733 injured, just in the DPR, over the full 10 years of the conflict. It would be higher if many of children and young mothers had not been moved further back or even to Russia for their safety. (TASS)

Most civilian casualties - 85-90% - between 2014 and 2016 were from "indiscriminate shelling of residential areas," an OHCHR report found, but this is not broken down into deaths on each side.  

From 2017-2020 OSCE found 2.4 shelling casualties (injured or killed) in the PRs for every one on the other side. (657 vs.270). Just Donetsk: 513 vs. 223. Just Lugansk: 144 vs. 47. (OSCE report) From 2018-2021 A UN study found FIVE shelling casualties in the PRs for each one on the other side. (310 vs. 62). (UN report) There's an argument that the OSCE routinely undercounted attacks and casualties, especially in the PRs, to the tune of about half of them missed. (Donbass Insider) That's supported by the above (2.4 vs. 5), and the UN numbers are preferrable. This means, barring false-flags and ignoring short-shot misfires by either side, Ukrainian forces killed 5 times as many civilians as the other side did.

Amnesty International, November 6, 2014

"The large majority of the [civilian] deaths were in separatist-held territory in Donetsk, and were likely caused by Ukrainian government forces, but separatist forces appeared responsible for several deaths in Avdiivka and Debaltseve, areas under government control. The organization’s research strongly suggests that separatist forces fired from these neighbourhoods, and Ukrainian government forces fired into them. In at least one instance, government forces placed an artillery position in a residential area." 

Separatist weapon placement in residential areas was "strongly suggest[ed]" while Ukraine's was apparently proven and stated as a fact. And yet, there were few civilian casualties on the Ukrainian side, and far heavier ones on the other side. The Ukrainians kill so many civilians, it doesn't seem they even aimed for military targets to begin with. It could be all the talk of indiscriminate weapons with poor aim misses the main point that these hits were probably no accident, but rather intentional state-sponsored terrorism.

Otherwise, the record is least clear in 2014, when it was likely higher rate of deaths in the PRs than in later years, applied to a much higher death toll. Probably at least 6:1 on around 1,786 civilian deaths = at least 1,531 civilians killed by Ukraine vs. at most 255 by the Peoples' Republics, from April to December. Civilian deaths per year:

2014: 2,084 (1,786 + 298 on MH17)

2015: 955

2016: 112

2017: 117

2018-2021: 58, 27, 26, and 25, at the end mostly from unexploded ordinances. (UN report)  especially in 2021 as the ceasefires was mainly held to, as it turns out, while Ukraine prepared to violate the Minsk accords with a publicly threatened reconquest of Crimea (March, 2021) and subsequent force buildup in the Donbas and then shelling of civilian homes and infrastructure, starting in November 21 and accelerating in January and February, before Russian forces finally entered the war for real, 8 years into it. (see here)

2014 Disputed Attacks (a few examples)

So 2014 is the big question regarding civilian casualties prior to Russia's invasion. Both sides blamed each other for everything that happened, and it was a lot. I can help us get some idea which side was lying. 

June and July: Deadly Airstrikes 

For the most part, the attacks used artillery shells, rockets and missiles fired from the ground. I often call all of this "shelling," and I think that's technically correct. But at first, Ukraine was more bold and used fighter jets only they had to attack civilian targets on the ground. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas

On 2 June, eight people were killed and more than 20 wounded by a series of explosions hitting the occupied RSA building in Luhansk city.[185] Separatists blamed the incident on a government airstrike, while Ukrainian officials denied this, and claimed that the explosions were caused by a stray surface-to-air missile fired by insurgents.[186] The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) published a report on the next day, stating that based on "limited observation", they believed that the explosion was caused by an airstrike, supporting separatist claims.[187]

A CNN investigation found clear evidence that the attack came from the air and the pattern of the craters suggested use of standard equipment on the Su-25, a ground-attack fighter, and the Su-27 – both combat aircraft operated by Ukraine.[185] Radio Liberty also concluded that "Despite Denials, All Evidence For Deadly Explosion Points To Kyiv".[188] CNN said that it was the first time that civilians had been killed in an attack by the Ukrainian air force during the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in the Donbas.[185] The next day, Luhansk People's Republic declared a three-day mourning in the city.[189]

More here at the ACLOS wiki I helped start. Note that one of those killed, here at the government's HQ, was the LPR's Minister of Agriculture, killed along with another woman she was talking with outside the building. One of the women (I'm not sure which) was seen alive in a terrifying aftermath video, her lower body shredded, pleading for someone to help find her phone so she could call someone.

A month later: BBC July 15 "Rockets struck the town of Snizhne in Donetsk region around 07:00 (04:00 GMT), hitting a block of flats and a tax office. The rebels blamed the attack on Ukraine's air force - a claim denied by Ukrainian sources. ... Ukrainian officials said 11 people had been killed and eight injured, including a child. Earlier, they had put the toll at four while rebels spoke of around 10 civilians being killed." When Ukraine denies and downplays at the same time, it's troubling. 

The BBC report shared a video of the apartment building with entire floors in the middle reduced to rubble - rescuers dig through it by hand for survivors. Why would Kyiv do this? No one seemed to care much or for long. 

It was in this same town of Snizhne, just two days later, that separatists supposedly smuggled in a Russian BUK air defense system, as if to prevent another such attack there. By the video record, it was stationed in the fields south of town (ACLOS), from which it purportedly shot down Malaysian Airlines flight MH-17 that same afternoon, killing 298. Interpretations of this incident vary widely, and I have complex thoughts but no firm theory, and also barely followed case developments since 2014. But the basic suggestion I see as likely enough is that the separatists made a terrible mistake as they tried to defend themselves from Ukraine's denied terrorism. But it just sharpened what "terrorists" Ukraine was up against At right: President Poroshenko, July 21: the whole world is either "with the terrorists" or "with the civilized world." And does he even need to specify which is which? Just days after MH-17, no. 

July Grad Rocket Attacks in Donetsk

HRW report, July 24, 2014

Just focusing on attacks with grad rockets, HRW reported 13 people, including 2 children, were killed in two attacks on July 12, and another 3 were killed in an attack on the 21st, with 2 non-fatal attacks in between. 

"Although Ukrainian government officials and the press service of the National Guard have denied using Grad rockets in Donetsk, a Human Rights Watch investigation on the ground strongly indicates that Ukrainian government forces were responsible for the attacks that occurred between July 12 and 21."

The four attacks took place close to the front line ... In all four cases, the angle and shape of the craters, and the fact that they were on the side of buildings facing the front line, strongly suggests that the rockets came from the direction of Ukrainian government forces or pro-Kiev armed groups.

The direction isn't specified, but most likely northwest. That's usually the case. Here's an apartment building with at least 2 apartments seemingly hit with 2 shells (no details past Donetsk, 2014 - from a video) - high sun suggests midday in summer, so the impacted side faces at least partly to the north. (A video compilation of building damage from 2014 shelling, on RUTUBE)

 

Starting in August, missiles fired on Donetsk in large numbers scattered cluster munitions far and wide, killing and injuring then and into the future. But we'll discuss this below with HRW analysis including further attacks in October. 

On September 5, a ceasefire was agreed. According to DPR officials, the ceasefire was violated by Ukraine many times, ten times in just one day, September 20, damaging homes and killing 4 civilians in the Peoples' Republics. (Sputnik Globe)

October 1 Rocket Attacks on School & City Bus 

On October 1, the ceasefire was broken again with 10 killed in Donetsk, 4 at school on the first day of classes. and 6 in another hit on a city bus.

France 24: "A source in Donetsk city hall told AFP that the strike happened right after the school's 70 pupils lined up for an assembly to mark the first day of class -- held nationally on September 1 but pushed back by rebel authorities because of the conflict."

"The children were taken to the basement; they are still there," the source said.

The pro-Kiev regional government of Donetsk, which is now based in the government-controlled city of Mariupol, accused pro-Russian separatists of the self-declared "Donetsk People's Republic" of shelling the school.

"The Donetsk People's Republic used rocket launchers to shoot at a school... the shell exploded five metres away from the building," the regional administration said in a statement.

Six more people died when another shell struck a public minibus in Donetsk, the regional authorities said, making Wednesday's casualty figures the highest civilian death toll in a single day since a ceasefire was struck.

As it happens, I already checked this one, a couple years go, mainly the bus but also the school impact. The pro-Kyiv crowd cited the bus attack as evidence the separatists were to blame, for this if not everything. Reason: the rocket was fired from the southwest, not the northwest as usual. "For those not from #Donetsk: the projectile on Poligraficheskaya, which killed 8 people, came from the side of the city, not the airport (see diagram)." At least 2 others did their own analysis to similar effect - origin to the southwest. Tacit acknowledgement: other attacks HAVE come from the airport direction (NW).

I checked and the readings are correct enough, for the bus and the school. The bus rocket tube points SW, which most read as the direction. It might be, but these can bend on the final stop, just after the detonation, as this one might have. The splash pattern of fragmentation marks on the pavement is the best indicator. It's not totally visible, but the shape to me suggests an origin closer to due south. My red line below runs due south, which may be too literal. It could be a bit either way, more likely SW, or anywhere in the range marked by white lines. Lower right shows the approximate front line at the time. 

The school damage wasn't as clear or easy to read, but especially so close to the damaged south facade, that shell to seemingly came from the south in almost the same way, but with less indication of SW, more likely due south (see post for details).

Smerch rockets used - If that means BM-30 (Wikipedia), it can fire different rockets with different ranges up to 100 and even 200km, and other models with shorter ranges, so it's hard for me to say. The front line is less than 20km to the SW, down to a Ukrainian-held are to the due south about 35-40km out and spanning to 60 km. 20-40km is needed, depending. so that could be a long-range, pretty normal or maybe even short-range use, depending on the exact rocket used. 

"DPR deputy leader Andrei Purgin told Russian TV that Ukrainian rocket launchers had targeted residential areas from as far as 40km (25 miles) away." (BBC) It could be from the edge of that area about 40km due south. It could also be a closer attack from a more SW direction, or any distance after sneaking east behind enemy lines is entirely possible. And the DPR doing it is entirely possible. So this case is inconclusive, and it's the top example to suggest DPR/Russian false-flag terrorism in the first year (I found 3 people on Twitter pushing this one, no one pushing any others, at least in English). 

But as I showed, a south or southwest angle is also not nearly as conclusive as these people made it seem. In fact, the next day, Human Rights Watch would use the same basic angle to prove it was Ukraine shelling Donetsk, now with cluster munitions.

August-October Cluster Munitions on Donetsk

August to October: cluster munitions fired on Donetsk and other towns, both before and after the September ceasefire. Human Rights Watch, October 20, 2014:

"Ukrainian government forces used cluster munitions in populated areas in Donetsk city in early October 2014, Human Rights Watch said today. The use of cluster munitions in populated areas violates the laws of war due to the indiscriminate nature of the weapon and may amount to war crimes."

In the 12 incidents documented by Human Rights Watch, cluster munitions killed at least 6 people and injured dozens." There were others they didn't investigate. Their analysis found "the cluster munitions came from the direction of government-controlled areas southwest of Donetsk." 

"The government of Ukraine has neither confirmed nor denied using cluster munitions in eastern Ukraine. It has not responded to a letter sent by the Cluster Munition Coalition in July or a letter sent by Human Rights Watch on October 13."

On October 2, 3 rockets were used on areas southwest of Universitetskaya street in central Donetsk, each one scattering submunitions over a wide area. One of the rockets hit at a supermarket that had a Red Cross center attached. "Thirty-eight-year-old Laurent DuPasquier, a Swiss employee with the International Committee of the Red Cross ... was killed during the attack in which cluster munition rockets were used." "Also on October 2, submunitions from another Uragan cluster munition rocket struck the building of the Mountain Rescue Service, at 157 Artem street in Donetsk." Red Cross and rescue people were targeted. 

"Submunition impact craters close to buildings in the three sites make it unlikely that the cluster munition came from the west, north, or east. The large crater in the second location indicated that the rocket had come from the southwest. This is the only direction consistent with all the impact craters, and therefore points to use by Ukrainian forces."

Then on October 5, "at least two Uragan cluster munition rockets struck the fifth subdistrict of the Kyivskyi district in central Donetsk.  ... A video of a rocket remnant lodged in the ground near 22 Kosiora street indicates that the cluster munitions were fired from the southwest. Supporting this finding, a local resident in Novomykhailivka, southwest of Donetsk, told a New York Times journalist that he had seen rockets launched from a position south of village in the morning of October 5."

In Makiivka, just east of Donetsk, HRW heard that "cluster munitions had killed two people on August 19 and 20 near a train station" while "a second cluster munition attack took place near a rebel checkpoint northeast of the town, suggesting a government attack." There was a third attack as well, but no directions are given for any of them. 

Starobesheve, southeast of Donetsk, was contested on August 24, with separatists in control of some areas and soon the whole town, when cluster munitions struck near the local administration building, killing 3 civilians and injuring 17. 

"The rocket tail section stuck in the ground in front of the local administration building shows that the rocket came from the southeast. With a maximum range of 70 kilometers and the Ukraine-Russia border 30 kilometers away, the cluster munitions could have been fired from Ukrainian territory southeast of Starobesheve, which was controlled by Ukrainian government forces at the time, or from Russian territory. The press center for the Ukrainian authorities’ counterterrorist operation claimed at the time that the cluster munitions had been fired from Russian territory. Human Rights Watch was not able to conclusively attribute responsibility for this attack."

Well, what does the reader think? 

November 5 Attack on Kids Playing Football

BBC November 5 "Two teenagers died and four were wounded when an artillery shell hit a school playing field as they played football in eastern Ukraine." A report of the OSCE special monitoring mission (SMM) heard  It was at 3:30 pm that 2 artillery shells impacted at School No. 63 on Stepanenko Street in Donetsk, with one hitting the football field.  A witness heard eight explosions. "According to him the first two occurred in quick succession. The other six occurred within five minutes of the first." "2 shells hit where children were playing at School No. 63 on Stepanenko Street, Donetsk," probably the first 2 quick hits. "The SMM saw human remains scattered around the pitch, including bone fragments, blood and internal organs. Blood-stained clothing was also visible, which appeared to have been torn by shrapnel."

Amnesty International declared: “Today’s shocking attack in Donetsk must by fully investigated. If it is found to constitute a war crime, those responsible must be brought to justice.”

Pro-Kyiv UNIAN would argue "Shell that hit school in Donetsk ‘fired from militant-controlled Makiivka’" Someone named Perebyinis (app. Yevhen Perebyinis, Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine) is cited saying "The shell that hit the school and killed [those] children in Donetsk was fired from territory controlled by the terrorists. We have photo evidence of it," he tweeted. "Perebyinis posted photos that he said proved that the militants were to blame for shelling the school. According to these photos, the shelling was carried out by insurgents from the occupied town of Makiivka, which is located to the east of Donetsk." 

No photos are shown, just a satellite view with a red line pointing almost due east, and a wider map showing a range of possible directions from the east. "The red line on the Google map shown above indicates the shell trajectory, as calculated by analysts at the ukraine@war blog." (site apparently defunct now) A video explaining the point was attached, but is no longer present. 

Update: found the tweet and linked page "Rocket that hit School No63 did not come from Peski." He doesn't seem to know what he's doing. "It is clear that the shell bent the fence and not the explosion, because the right part of the fence is not bent at all where the explosion hit." No, that's because this is the back direction where the force is directed down into the ground rather than up into the fence. (see below) 

I found some photos of the field impact and tried my own best reading: impact near NW corner, right at the north fence, blasting a narrow, deep crater there, tearing the fence up to the east (and up = forward), with curling inward = force from the west, near parallel with fence but a bit from the outside (north) - scorching from the ignition fireball spreads east (= forward on trajectory) - low frag marks appear a ways back, stop on a line running SW, and behind that the turf peels back with even lower force (and low = back). All this says arrival from northwest, not the east. I use the orange arc differently here, to include the low marks on the side and scorching ahead, as the splash pattern behind seems interrupted by the concrete and fence pole, winds up peeling turf instead. It is a bit hard to read, perhaps giving Perebyinis some excuse to read it almost backwards. 

(photos: https://tass.com/russia/758729 - https://ria.ru/20141106/1031957968.html - Google image search

Ukraine@War reading, upper left - my reading right - both mapped - I don't know the range, or length of the white line, just the direction. It could be from Pisky, further out, or closer in, but very little space for any DPR false-flag, and nothing but the flawed east origin was ever said to suggest that. Pisky or Peski is exactly where Perebyinis said the shell did NOT come from, so I suppose that's just where it came from, roughly.

The observers of the supposedly neutral but seemingly Ukraine-biased OSCE had to contradict Kyiv here, probably due to the evidence rather than any pro-Russian bias. Report

"The SMM also noted a crater in the playground, near the eastern wall" besides "three craters near a damaged apartment building," and "three other craters on nearby Myrhorodska Street. The SMM observed damage to a number of houses near these craters."

"All craters seen by the SMM were about one metre in diameter and the depths varied. The SMM’s analysis indicates that at least four of the craters were caused by 120mm mortar shells and two others were the result of 122mm artillery rounds." Probably the 2 bigger shells were used to kill the kids playing soccer. 

"In the SMM’s assessment, all of these were fired from a location north-west of the football pitch and were the result of high-angle fire." High angle, I think, means relatively short range. That would make for an extra vertical impact, which I think fits the damage. 

"At 09:25, the shelling obliged the SMM to leave the area. The SMM heard loud explosions about two kilometres away to the south-west."

Conclusion

A November 14 speech by President Poroshenko might have referred to these repeated school attacks when he assured people in Odessa they took the right path in rejecting the "terrorism." because "Our children will go to kindergartens and schools, theirs will be sitting in cellars. [bomb shelters] Because they can't do anything! That’s how we are going to win this war." When their whole lives are disrupted Ukraine wins. Suffering is the goal? Or is it when the "terrorists" finally die or flee to Russia, leaving the land to Ukraine? It also helps to win that they don't have to take credit for imposing this life on their enemies; according to the post-2014 weapon-state of Ukraine, the kids in Donbas were hiding exclusively from Russian or separatist fire, as a civilized state like Ukrainian would never do such a thing as target innocent civilians, even if they were "Russian terrorists." 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUp-sh1oaOU

Who Should be Held Accountable for the Donetsk Market Shelling of 1/21/24?

I heard about this attack when it happened over a year ago, on January 21, 2024, but I never looked into it until now, when it caught my attention again. 27 civilians were killed and 25 injured, according to local authorities. Luckily no children died, but 2 teenage boys were among the wounded. 

UPI report

"Russia's foreign ministry blamed Ukraine for "the terrorist act," stating in a Telegram statement Monday that Kyiv forces "deliberately targeted" the market with six artillery rounds."

"Meanwhile, Kyiv has denied responsibility, with its Joint Press Center of the Ukrainian Defense Forces fighting on the southern front stating it wasn't involved in combat operations there." 

"Donetsk is Ukraine!" it said in a statement Sunday night. "Russia will have to take responsibility for the lives of Ukrainians that have been taken."

This IMPLIES - but doesn't specify - that Russia actually fired those shells, killing its own citizens. (They allege this every time such an event occurs.) President Zelensky was more explicit when he ...

"...also blamed Russia for the attack in his nightly address on Sunday, but without mentioning the market by name. "On this day alone, Russian savages shelled more than a hundred cities, towns and our Ukrainian villages in nine regions: from Chernihiv and Sumy to Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad. The most brutal Russian attacks were in Donetsk region. Unfortunately, there are wounded and dead," he said. "Russia will be held accountable for all this terror -- it must be."

Once again, both sides blamed each other for this most brutal of the day's several shelling attacks. Those killed were among those who voted to leave Ukraine and become Russians, are considered that by themselves and Russia, and Russia stands accused of killing them, presumably to make Ukraine look bad. It could work since Ukraine does have potential motive to punish and terrorize the locals. 

Once again if very belatedly, I'll have to check the evidence I can actually make sense of, to see who was lying here. The quickest way - and it's still allowed for now - was to check some Telegram channels I follow for videos and photos. Most of the links I checked:

https://t.me/Elena_Evdokimova_Digest/31064

https://t.me/Elena_Evdokimova_Digest/31065

https://t.me/RTandSputnikNews/23260

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/86003

https://t.me/Elena_Evdokimova_Digest/31105

https://t.me/nm_dnr/11631

https://t.me/chp_donetska/80615

https://t.me/zvezdanews/137105

https://t.me/readovkanews/72775

https://t.me/chp_donetska/80502

https://t.me/zvezdanews/137107

https://t.me/chp_donetska/80547

https://t.me/chp_donetska/80581

https://t.me/chp_donetska/80491

https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/18376

I didn't bother citing the few images and details used here, but they're somewhere on that list.

Location: NOT where I thought in central Donetsk where so many deadly market attacks have occurred, but in one of the other such spots, in the Tekstilshchik micro-district, on the western outskirts. Аптека pharmacy on Google Maps is the building seen in videos with some 10 bodies around it, laying mostly face-down, pouring blood into the snow, with some crashed cars people likely died in, and broken shop windows others may have been killed behind. That was the main carnage, but at least one more shell, probably 2 or more, hit the market area to the NW (blue roofs), killing at least 4 or 5 seen in videos. Exact location & impact details unclear there. 

I was able to make sense of the main scene and, even without a clear fragmentation pattern or splash pattern on the pavement, I found a few clues that jointly suggest an arrival from the northwest. Windows are out on northwest and west sides. At least one shell hit here at the base of a tree at the NW corner, shredding its lower trunk upon an impacted mainly from the west, killing people in the marked zone only a bit to the east and mostly to the south. (I was briefly confused about which tree, circling 2, then Xing one out) I noticed a scorched spot on a wall with a clear edge, past which the tree blocked the detonation wave as it rolled forward on velocity (bottom right). I drew an approximate angle from that blast shadow back to the tree's far side, and then eyeballed that onto the satellite view, for the orange line there. It's probably not exact, but well fit to test.

DPR investigators don't show site images this time, maybe because too many were spots were too gory to show. They'll often show some key details with rulers, black-and-white poles and paper arrows showing the implied impact angle you can often see and confirm. But they presumably did their analysis here, and mapped the result as usual, in a Telegram post: 24.8km WNW around Oleksandropil' (Ukrainian occupied), using 152mm and 155mm shells. Here's their map with my reading copied on to compare. They're just a few degrees different. I'm sure their reading is better, but for the doubters, there's the visual evidence indicating the same - Ukraine launched a terror attack on innocent civilians and blatantly denied it. This is proven to be the case in virtually all of dozens, maybe over 100 cases I've checked out over the years. (see posts tagged Donetsk)

Zelenskyy says the Russians shelled their own here. Does he have information about their sneaking behind Ukrainian lines to do it? Some 75% of Donetsk shelling (est.) comes from this NW sector, and I don't think I've heard of one case where Ukrainian forces captured, documented, or even reported any such infiltrators. Obviously, this is because they don't exist. Ukraine does these terror attacks because their patrons have allow and tacitly encourage it, and keep on arming the terrorists ... so far anyway. It seems up in the air now, but from 2014 to recently their activities were fully supported with hardly any question or limits ever imposed, as their contra-factual claims were almost uniformly accepted.

Statement by Russian Ministery of Foreign Affairs https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1926834/

The neo-Nazi regime in Kiev, supported by the United States and its satellites, has committed yet another brutal terrorist act against the civilian population of Russia.

On the morning of January 21, armed units of Bandera’s followers deliberately targeted a market and shops in Tekstilshchik, a neighbourhood in the Kirovsky District of Donetsk, with multiple launch rocket systems. A total of six artillery rounds were fired at the busiest areas in town causing a large number of casualties. According to reports, at least 25 people were killed and 20 were injured.

This is an early statement, only having 25 deaths confirmed, and citing a wrong attack origin: "It was established that the shelling was coming from Avdeyevka" to the north. But what was established is what I show and confirm above, from Oleksandropil to the west-northwest. The statement also says:

"...the types of weapons supplied by the West were used. This is further confirmation of the Western countries’ direct involvement in the conflict, implicating them in the criminal acts committed by the Zelensky regime. This regime has once again demonstrated its inhuman nature and hatred for innocent people they are calling “species.” The leaders in Kiev are prepared to kill them mercilessly."

"Russia strongly condemns this treacherous attack on civilians. The West’s unrestrained desire to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia using their Ukrainian puppets to do the fighting, thoughtlessly supporting them without any limits, is pushing the Kiev regime to increasingly reckless steps, including terrorist attacks, massive violations of international humanitarian law and war crimes. Russia calls on all responsible governments and relevant international agencies to strongly condemn this brutal act of terrorism. Their silence would mean tacit approval of the murder of civilians and encourage Ukrainian neo-Nazis to commit even more terrible atrocities."

"The terrorist attacks by the Kiev regime clearly demonstrate that it has no political will for peace and the settlement of the conflict by diplomatic means."

"The need for achieving all the goals and objectives of Russia’s special military operation is obvious. No threats to security or acts of terrorism must be coming from the territory of Ukraine."

Now there's some heavy-handed propaganda. But keep in mind that propaganda can include as much truth as works for your case. And whatever you call them, the ballistic evidence says forces of the post-2014 US-proxy weapon-state of Ukrainian committed this crime against the Russian people trying to live on land that can only be "Ukraine." Meanwhile, hero of the world Zelenskyy, the only one standing up now to both Putin and Trump, and who just might be the second coming of Christ, once again said "Russia will be held accountable for all this terror" his own forces have been sowing for years. "It must be." Crowds roar in approval as they watch the terror and Russia's tab grow and grow. 

Terrorists Shell Donetsk Again

May 7,2023 

I've been taking a break, but AyazK on Twitter got me to look into this shelling attack on Donetsk back on April 28 that killed at least 7 civilians on a bus, including a young girl, and damaged a hospital.

The last Donetsk attack I covered here in March - not the most recent attack (it continues daily) - had an ambulance crew killed, in a strike apparently from the Ukrainian-held northwest. That's the most common direction of attack, but other directions come up, always where Ukraine's foreign-backed Banderite terrorists bent on ethnic cleansing continue to operate.  

As reported by Donetsk mayor Alexei Kulemzin:

Kuibyshev and Kiev regions were subjected to massive shelling by the Ukrainian Nazis.

10 rockets were fired from the MLRS (PC30). Arrivals are reported in the Donetsk City area. Details are being specified.

CHP Donetsk Z: 

According to preliminary data, seven people died due to falling into a minibus, one of them was a child. More than 10 people are in the hospital. According to stringer_donetsk, at least 9 people died on the bus;

- The AFU hit the hospital, the park, residential buildings. Several cars, a grocery store, and the Olimpiyskiy stadium were damaged;

- the only MRI machine in the DPR was also damaged;

- more than 10 rockets from the MLRS were fired at the central districts of the city. They used Slovak high-explosive rockets of the JROF-M rocket, TASS was told in the power structures of the DPR;

- the shelling became the fourth in a day, in 2.5 hours the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired a total of 32 shells in Donetsk, TASS reports.

Bus Impact

Eva K. Bartlett: an 8-year-old girl died along with her grandmother on the bus, with 7 others, killed by "the cluster rocket that Slovakia supplied to the Otano-Ukrainian army." I can't verify the weapon except that I think it was a standard HE warhead with one concentrated blast, not cluster bomblets. But the girl, according to others (e.g. Dana on Twitter), did die. She was named Macha (Maria). 

Scene photos: https://t.me/dnronline/96672

Denials: Kyiv issued no explicit denials, but implicitly it always does, categorically denying that they ever target civilians or their infrastructure like this. They suggest the Russians or DPR are shelling their own people - almost daily, for 9 years now - just to make Ukraine look bad. It has the effect of punishing the people for choosing separatism, just like many in Ukraine's new Banderite military would like to do. They say the "Russians" do it for them.

Alexei Navalny's chief of staff Leonid Volkov piped up on Twitter to make this case. After an alleged and denied Russian attack on civilians in Uman, "something is blown up in Donetsk on the same day. Well, to interrupt the summons and shout: "and they beat us (too)!". This has already been worked out to automatism. The automatism of the dead."

Fascist Alex ꑭ Bezfam on Twitter explained how "Footed creatures" (meaning Russians - subhumans to him) powerfully fired at the center of the city. As usual, the outgoing ones were heard well." That view was supported with a reply from balalaika🇺🇦 @orkam_net whose bio is "I hate orcs [Russians]."  That mindset does NOT set them up to be correct. The location is right, around 72/74 Universytets'ka St. However, the call that the rocket came from the SE, where Russians/DPR forces are, is done backward. It occasionally is, and such people take those readings as valid and as stand-ins for all other cases, so they can "know" the DPR or Russians are behind all this shelling.

That photo wasn't very clear with the mud and water reflecting a slate-gray sky, and it seems to make sense that the bus ahead would be damaged. But there is a rough semicircle of puddles on the far side of the elongated crater. Here's a photo of DPR investigator reading it right - the opposite way, from the Ukrainian-held NW - largely down the street, but a bit left-to-right (source: JCC on Telegram). 

The splash pattern of fragments hitting the pavement on the underside (orange arc here) is also on the back side, pointing back to the origin. This clarifies the point. Some higher back-side fragments flew a ways to the NW before damaging the bus and setting it ablaze. Still angling up, it can be seen some tore through the roof. If it had come in the other way, its higher-angled forward fragments would surely have passed well over the bus at that distance.

Hospital Attack

Patrick Lancaster: "At least 10 civilians injured as a result of a rocket hitting the traumatology hospital during the mass rocket barrage of Donetsk Donetsk that killed at least 7 including children and injured many."

This was said to damage or destroy the only MRI scanner in the DPR, further complicating cancer diagnoses and such. To be fair, it doesn't look badly damaged in its important parts, but it wasn't for lack of trying. 

Internal views: 

https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1651970905252278272

https://twitter.com/ARTESOSCURASBOO/status/1652622366533402625 

There's a damaged interior wall across from that entry hole. The path between them is almost across the room or perpendicular to the walls, with the munition trending just a bit to its left. But what direction is that?

External views: 

Lancaster, above

https://t.me/dnronline/96724

https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1651922847059648513

https://twitter.com/PadreEmerito/status/1651983895519191041

That happens to be a spot I know. It's the only spot at the hospital with these features, including an external covered structure, a unique saw-horse, 3 arches and another wing to the left, and a 4-story section to the right, with some damage near the top (bottom left view above). This is a NNW-facing wall of the hospital a meter or two from a spot hit back on December 24 (same upper damage visible in top left view). https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/12/donetsk-christmas-shelling-16-25.html

It wasn't clear before what was behind the wall that was not punctured in that attack. But this only MRI scanner is probably what the foreign-backed terrorists were aiming for then, and they finally hit it now, with more enabled and ignored genocidal terrorism.

Other

Patrick Lancaster video: More civilian vehicles destroyed during the mass rocket barrage of center Donetsk by Ukrainian forces today that killed at least 7 including children and injured many.

This spot in on Universytets'ka St one block north of the bus impact - a new pizza place to the left (added since 2011 street view) has high, scattered marks - partly the forward direction from an impact somewhere in this parking lot. That's somewhat down the street SE, or from the NW or similar.

Stadium: https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/14828

Soil spreads largely towards the camera, away from the ... structure there, and probably a bit right-to-left. That's on the west side, so this projectile came partly from the west, and probably the north. Best guess: northwest like the others. 

Overview

Analyzing Donetsk Shelling of October 1, 2014

March 1, 2023

(rough, incomplete)

One early shelling incident on October 1, 2014, has been most commonly cited as proof that the Donetsk Peoples' Republic or its Russian backers were themselves shelling the citizens of Donetsk. They would do this over and over, it was assumed, just to accuse the "Fascists" in Kyiv and their "UkroNazi" forces or "punisher brigades" arrayed all around the western flank of Donetsk. But here, it's claimed the ballistic evidence disproves their claim, and so well it can serve as a stand-in for hundreds of other incidents over the years. Thousands would be killed in these incidents, but just 11+ in the one we're looking at, that had 2 parts: 6-7 killed at a bus stop and on the bus, and 3-4 were killed at a school on its first day of classes, but luckily no children were killed.  

Pro-Kiev Analysis: A Russian/DPR False-Flag

One cited source has a page that still loads (uainfo.org), but the text is vague and the pictures that tell the story no longer load. They should be the same as shared here along with the link: 

https://twitter.com/michail777/status/517284322462937088

This seems to decide it came from the SW but within the city (10-15km), or from the NW, up to the airport, but nowhere past the line of contact in either direction (green). I guess it favors the SW angle over the airport, as others do (see below). The red line runs N-S, as shown in another image, circling a shadow, maybe to show the directions by sun - at around 10am, it would be from the SE. And then the rocket came from the left or west of that, with 2 directions competing, a 90 degree spread between them somehow ruled out ... 

... or as someone else read it, "Seems #Donetsk shell came from SE, implicating #Russia fighters, not #Ukraine." The findings must be explained in Ukrainian on this included image; I'll see about a translation. It indicates SSW or almost due south, and also southeast.  

Most others agree in reading it as from the SW, based on the embedded tube's angle. 

https://twitter.com/euromaidan/status/517283023793160193

Traces SW only to a point, some 14km out, still within the DPR-controlled city, noting "there is no AFU" there, and so "Militants of the DNR shell Donetsk, passing it off as shelling by the Ukrainian army."

https://twitter.com/GorseFires/status/517365353895063554

"Shelling by Russian-backed Forces at civilian targets, incl school, in Donetsk" - picture shows fire from the south or southwest, not from the airport. 

https://twitter.com/UkrainaSegodnya/status/517337119123972096

claim "VATA, look at WHO IS ACTUALLY LEADING THE SHOOT OF Donetsk in order to feed you news" - picture: same above but more elegant - it was someone to the southwest, not at the airport (right), nor in the center of the city (left). 

https://twitter.com/Vityushka_UA/status/517245394791981056

"For those not from #Donetsk: the projectile on Poligraficheskaya, which killed 8 people, came from the side of the city, not the airport (see diagram)."

https://twitter.com/MannfredNikolai/status/517386292179787776

"#Ukraine Footage from #Donetsk, showing, the projectile came from 'rebel'-held south south-east, not from the airport" Shown: 3 photos, one with the tube circled, no labels to indicate directions or to show he has any idea how to say the angle. The other southeast readings above seemed confused. But as it so happens, this one is closest to my own analysis (see below).

What is with this airport fixation? They act like if Ukraine had done it, that's the only place they could have done it from. But in general from 2014 to the present, probably at that exact time, Ukrainian forces surrounded the city on the western flank. At least the outer districts have always been surrounded a full 180 degrees including due north & south. Some places get hit from the SE or NE and it still points to UA-held areas at the time. So Southwest absolutely does not rule out Ukrainian forces. See mapping below.

Russian/DPR Sources

https://www.rt.com/news/192140-ukraine-school-shelled-donetsk/

At least nine people were killed and 30 others injured in Donetsk after a school and a bus stop came under fire, reportedly from Ukrainian army positions.

Three people died at the school and six others were killed at the bus stop, Donetsk City Council said in a statement on its website.

No children were killed in the shelling of school №57 on Wednesday, but the debris from the blast left two parents and a biology teacher dead.

The city council earlier stated that all 70 children studying at the school were in the building at the moment of the strike. They were hastily evacuated. The school building was damaged in the attack.

The Russian Foreign Ministry describes the attack is a cynical and blatant breach of international law.

“The particular cynicism of this shelling is the very fact that today was the children’s first day at school. And on this day, artillery directly targets them. These are blatant, intolerable things,” the ministry’s human rights ombudsman Konstantin Dolgov said.

Public transport has been changing routes due to the shelling.

One hundred and forty-six schools in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic had commenced classes out of 150, Minister of Education of Donetsk People's Republic Igor Kostenok said.

A ceasefire between the Ukrainian government and the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics’ authorities was signed in Minsk, Belarus, on September 5.

https://www.kp.ru/daily/26288/3167053/

The shell hit one of the schools in Donetsk on the first day of the school year

The capital of Donbass was shelled from the "Smerch". Our special correspondent Alexey Ovchinnikov transfers from the scene

https://sputniknews.com/20141001/School-Shelling-in-Donetsk-Grave-Violation-of-Humanitarian-Law-193519343.html

At least 11 people have been killed in shelling of the school in Donetsk on Wednesday. According to the city council, 70 children were inside the building when firing started. There has been no confirmation from the Ukrainian sources yet.

The Ukrainian government and independence supporters of the country's eastern regions agreed to a ceasefire during the September 5 Contact Group meeting in Minsk. Since the establishment of the ceasefire, the opposing sides have repeatedly accused one another of violating the truce.

Blood and damage at the school https://twitter.com/A_Knishenko_RT/status/517343468231069696

https://twitter.com/NOVORUSSIANEWS/status/517245392115994624

https://twitter.com/RussImperialist/status/517785628919226368

The junta is still functioning perfectly and is constantly shelling Donetsk and Luhansk.

Other Sources

Ukraine crisis: Shell kills four at Donetsk school - BBC News

Both sides blamed the other for Wednesday's attacks. The Kiev-controlled regional administration said rebels from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) had opened fire with a multiple-launch rocket system. But DPR deputy leader Andrei Purgin told Russian TV that Ukrainian rocket launchers had targeted residential areas from as far as 40km (25 miles) away.

Ukraine: Forces must stop firing on civilians after nine killed in Donetsk - Amnesty International

Ukrainian and rebel forces must immediately end indiscriminate attacks in residential areas, Amnesty International said today after at least nine civilians were killed in strikes on a school and a bus in Donetsk.The latest attacks, which took place in the Kievskiy district of the city, came as Amnesty International documented a pattern of indiscriminate shelling and rocket attacks in the area by Ukrainian forces in the past 10 days.

“Ukrainian government forces must immediately stop firing on residential areas in Donetsk,” said John Dalhuisen, Amnesty International’s Europe and Central Asia Director. “Ukrainian and rebel forces are violating international humanitarian law by endangering civilians with indiscriminate attacks, despite the fact that attacks may only be directed against combatants.“These attacks are unlawful because Ukrainian forces are using weapons in populated areas that cannot be targeted with sufficient accuracy to distinguish between civilian objects and military objectives.”

Today’s attacks resulted in the highest civilian toll in a single day since a ceasefire was struck between Kiev and pro-Russian separatists in early September. Four civilians were killed in the shelling of a school, which had more than 50 children inside at the time, on the day schools across Donetsk opened following a month-long delay due to the armed conflict.Another five civilians were killed when a minibus was hit – either by rocket fire or a mortar. Six civilians were killed in Kievskiy district on Sunday, all in the same area as today’s attacks. 

In a visit to the affected area of Kievskiy on Monday, Amnesty International delegates saw a large rebel artillery piece sitting in the middle of a residential street, less than 10 metres from a house. “By basing military targets in residential areas, rebel forces have failed to take all feasible precautions to protect civilians and have endangered civilians in violation of the laws of war,” said John Dalhuisen.“By carrying out military operations in the neighbourhood, rebel forces share responsibility for these latest attacks with the Ukrainian forces.”

Amnetsy faults DPR forces for INVITING attacks, but seems to blame actual attacks on Ukrainian forces. Ukraine will not have been happy with that, as they were busy denying that, blaming the DPR "terrorists." An earlier Amnesty link given on Twitter is now broken. It may have only called out Ukrainian forces, with the update reflecting their counter-accusations, to "both sides" it so even "rebel forces must immediately end indiscriminate attacks in residential areas." https://www.amnesty.org/en/news/ukraine-forces-must-stop-firing-civilians-after-nine-killed-donetsk-2014-10-01

https://sputniknews.com/20141001/UN-Secretary-General-Condemns-Donetsk-School-Shelling-in-East-193531967.html

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has condemned the shelling of a school in east Ukraine's besieged city of Donetsk and described the incident as "particularly alarming," UN Spokesman Stephane Dujarric told the press on Wednesday.

"We're very concerned of the reports of violence we've seen over the last two days. The shelling of the school is particularly alarming. Targeting of schools [is] unacceptable in any circumstances," Dujarric said in New York. ... According to Stephane Dujarric, Ban Ki-moon urged conflicting parties in Ukraine to strictly comply with the agreement reached in September in Minsk in order to "ensure sustainable cease fire."

My Own Analysis

I did my own geolocation first - using the school name to locate that, then checking nearby bus stops on Kyivsky prospect - one matched in a few minutes. That set directions for my analysis of the crime scene. Other sources I then found tend to agree on both points, just disagreeing on what it means. 

 

School №57 - location: 48.0498649,37.7809874 - address: 1 Yasnopolyans'ka St

An impact crater is shown, apparently at the corner just south across the street - Facade damage is to the south-facing main entrance, and damaged cars are parked just south of that. Just from some limited views, I'd say the shell responsible came partly from the south, maybe from the southwest or SSW. Facade damage, right side - quite a spread high and low - that's the forward direction. 

But the car damage is quite low on the car parked on about the same line, albeit much closer. All told...

Highest marks may be at left edge of the magenta box - tracing to the corresponding point at the roof points SE, but the roof isn't the measure - it's skewed a bit left of its ground-level footprint. Therefore, the line from impact crater to magenta's edge is roughly due north. This rocket came from the south. Isn't that where Kyiv had no forces? 

Bus stop - scenery match with minor, acceptable differences from 2011 street view - Kyivsky Prospekt, about 200m NW of the school. 48.0520607,37.7778159. I have more video and street views to show the site match, but why bother? Every source here already agrees on this obvious location. 

In this view, we face mainly south, like that bus was headed. The embedded rocket tube points back to the southwest, roughly 45 degrees to this (almost) north-south street. But this might reflect some bending on impact. The asphalt "splash" pattern of fragments from the rocket's underside is a more reliable clue, but not totally clear here. I trace the area of dense marks in orange, as far as I can see it, with the crucial forward edges left and right a bit unclear, coming out a bit concave (they're usually straight or a bit convex) and the pattern is also a bit asymmetrical - dense to the SW, looser to the SSE ... an angle up the street from the south or SSE seems like a best fit, but then denser marks to the SW look more like those in the direct rear usually look, plus the tube points that way, so I'll consider that in a range. But I feel that something closer to due south, or a bit SSE or SSW, is most likely. I don't think plain southeast can explain this pattern.  

Note that both pins for the bus impact and the school have their tips visible in the lower right view; they're basically at the same spot, and probably hit from the same angle, minus no more than one degree or so. And both readings tend to support each other in pointing less SW, less SE, and more plain south.

Were Ukrainian forces to the due south? The pro-Kyiv sources pointing that way, or mainly southwest, claimed there were none, at least not within Donetsk city limits. They read the direction decently, but pair it with an assumption that there were no Ukrainian forces to the southwest, or that they were too far out to have fired this shell. ...  But according to a plausible-looking map with this Tass report, in the days before this attack, they were to the SW (rough measure) about 22-25km out, and to the south, and even southeast, at a distance around 35-40km. Here with my estimated angles traced out (from Donetsk: range in red, most likely in black: about 35km).

But by this, DPR forces controlled areas closer in, and further out ~60km to the south (but nowhere else to the southwest). That is, UA forces controlled a span about 20km deep, and about 20km wide, to the south of these exact impacts. 

Also consider that hypothetically, either side could penetrate the others' territory, especially if it's briefly and for a special reason, like some false-flag or double-false-flag attack. By this map, both sides were a bit vague about control down here. If it turns out some short or long range use puts the origin in one of the DPR areas, it doesn't 100% prove their guilt, nor does the opposite 100% prove Ukrainian guilt. Still, it's a fairly strong indicator, which is why people try to asses where a munition came from. In this case, almost everyone did a decent job, just with some disagreement over what it means.  

An early analysis that gives a reasonable and common reading of SW origin, and agrees with me on the probable implications:

https://twitter.com/MilitaryMaps/status/517675715568099328

https://dragon-first-1.livejournal.com/6315.html

noting 35 km Uragan range, finding it was probably Ukrainian forces.

KP reported that "Smerch" was used. If that means BM-30 (Wikipedia), it can fire different rockets and maybe guided missiles up to 100 and even 200km, with standards that go 70-90km (to re-check). The Ukrainian-held pocket to the south spans about 40-60 km, so that would be a pretty normal or maybe short-range use. (Exact weapon identification is not my area)

My range of lines more to the south is sound and pretty clear, with distance being the crucial unknown I've never been good at determining. With a better measure to the front line, a clear estimate of the distance flown, etc. we could say for sure, but ... if it came from that ~20 km span, well, ... 

The Pattern it Fits

... that would fit Amnesty International's established "pattern of indiscriminate shelling and rocket attacks in the area by Ukrainian forces in the past 10 days." 

A center of the International Red Cross was hit in Donetsk the next day, October 2, killing a Swiss aid worker, in attacks involving cluster munitions. The New York Times would briefly join Amnesty in blaming Ukrainian forces, finding the ballistic evidence to be obvious (not that I've reviewed it) in indicating fire from Ukrainian-held areas.

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/21/world/ukraine-used-cluster-bombs-report-charges.html 

Amnesty has been called out for keeping some track of crimes by Kyiv's forces, who often seem to run wild. But even the New York Times was running this "Putin disinfo." This is why even the perpetrators could be convinced sometimes to chill out on this terrorism, and to generally keep the death tolls low but steady. 

School and bus and church and hospital attacks are all great, but usually they use small-to-mid-sized weapons, not heavy ones, and they don't go for maximum death toll, or target children especially. Eg. most schools are hit while not in session, and even here, the shelling at top of the hour only killed adults out front. Playgrounds are often hit, especially by scattering cluster bomblets, sometimes injuring or killing young children. But playgrounds big and small are all over, on just about every block - pretty hard to miss in an indiscriminate attack - and they're not usually crowded. From early on, the people have learned to shelter and move about only cautiously, also greatly limiting how many get killed. It's only been ... what, 14,000 killed, total even to now? 50,000 plus seriously wounded? I should look that up. Anyway, it could be worse, if everyone on the Ukrainian side just didn't care at all and went unhinged on the genocide stuff, and/or if the people there weren't so good at adapting to this new reality.

I didn't read ahead, but October 1 and 2 might be a point where some people move to reign others in, and the terrorism might chill out for a while. But it always comes back, even in 2023 - just days ago, an ambulance crew was killed in a double-tap attack (my analysis). The only thing that's changing this for the people - aside from some briefly-held ceasefires back in the day - is the Banderite punishers getting hammered further west, if slowly, and at great cost to all. But even that is often offset by new long-range weapon outsiders make available, at great cost to all - e.g. increased use of US-supplied HIMARS rockets, allegedly including on that ambulance. There's also an increased reliance on US-supplied 155mm artillery shells, with 50-100 of the tings fired into Donetsk city most days. That's our tax dollars, while our system decays and homelessness is growing here, to help pay for blowing up homes and lives in what they say is Ukraine, where the Ukrainian people's well-being is supposed to the paramount issue for the whole world.