Fail Caesar: Exposing the Anti-Syria Photo Propaganda

Fail Caesar: Exposing the Anti-Syria Photo Propaganda {Masterlist}
November 8, 2014
last edits March 21, 2019

This story of "Caesar" - the code-named defector with a supposed 55,000 photos worth of proof the "Assad regime" was genociding its Sunni political prisoners, 11,000+ at least 6,627 of them - warrants a series of posts (number of parts unsure but low) and so, as they come up:

• Fail Caesar Part 1: Protecting his Identity - From Whom? (if his story of employment by the Syrian government is true, the code-name and other precautions couldn't possibly hide his identity from them. So ... why all the secrecy then?) 
• Fail Caesar Part 2: Re-Considering the Victims (if we're willing to question what he says about the dead men documented during the Syrian conflict, what else might explain the evidence?)
• That may be enough, unless there's some new development...
• There was. Fail Caesar, part 3: A New Offensive at the Ides of March, started post added a bit late, March 19. The nearly 7,000 detainees face shots are released, challenging one core problem I'd raised, and leading to a slew of alleged identifications.
• Part 4: The Other Half of the Photos - And then in December, 2015, the Human Rights Watch report and its revelation that half of Cesar's photos did not show tortured detainees, but rather, more or less, showed victims and effects of rebel violence.  The half that did show alleged regime detainees was the app. 6,700 shown in March.
• Photos Timeline - scrapped for now, see ACLOS page with a usable start (collaborative, if anyone collaborates!)  Helps largely verify the numbers and number system alleged.
• Part 5: Questioning the Number System - building off the timeline and other on-going analysis, so far this proves nothing one way or the other, but it's well-worth understanding, and some serious contradictions and minor mysteries are raised.  
• Part 6: Evidence the Victims were NOT Prisoners of the Government The start of what I've been building up to here; it seems these are unidentified bodies, not coded prisoners. They include rebel combat deaths, some pro-government fighters, some civilian massacre victims, and mainly a whole bunch of civilians and fighters held captive, starved, tortured, seemingly mass-exterminated and dumped - by the foreign-backed terrorists plaguing the Damascus area. It does not seem likely the victims were held by the government those terrorists seek to undermine with hostage-taking, genocide programs, and false-flag allegation. 
• Part 6, sub-posts A-G (see part 6). 
• See also tortured detainee denials (or actually government admissions of torture - by the terrorists)   
• Part 7: Inventing More Coded Prisoners? Connecting to parts 5 and 6 but deserving its own slot - Identifying a peculiar pattern of inserted entries  that essentially proves some invention of the telltale "prisoner ID#" from a different number that means no such thing.  133 cases at least were nabbed in this analysis, with the method, pattern and meaning explored in a super-detailed explanation.
• Part 8:  Upside-Down Terrorist Crimes in Geneva?: On Mohammed Alloush, poitical leader of Jaish al-Islam - possibly the killers of the Caesar photo victims - using the photos in his new job as Saudi-Western-backed chief negotiator in Geneva, in light of the evidence of genocide contained in the photos.   
• Part 9: Prior Documentation of Torture: So far one telling example of opposition activists intercepting regime abuses (of the kind as, from the area as, and at the same time as the abuse of the Caesar photo victims) - just moments after they happened. 
•  Part 10: On the Silence From Damascus: Asking for more information.  
• Part 11: Tortured Detainee Denials: They blame hart attack, illness... terrorists... torture...
• Part 12: Timeline of Terror: updated photos timeline + details considered

See also: Assad Files-Caesar Photo Line-Ups: Genuine or Phony? (cross-over with "Assad Files" and, I think, a different number system the government really used that almost lines up, briefly, with the fake prisoner numbers for MI branch 227 - detailed consideration suggests the systems were a few days apart in repeating these two numbers - all other cases will be farther from lining up, and only these two near-matches have been highlighted to 'prove' these numbers are official, rather than made up by terrorists)

Part 13: Do the "Caesar Photos" Show Chemical Mass Extermination?
(there's a chillingly strong case that they do - forthcoming)

See Douma's Mask of Death, part 2: The “Caesar Photos” Connection 

#CaesarPhotos Identified Victim Profiles

• Rihab Allawi (The one female out of 6,700 shown victims) 
• Husam Suraym  (a strange alleged FSA member/civilian)
• Mohammad Khaled al-Tout
• Majid Abu Draa (origins of the pattern in part 7) 
• Dr. Mohammed Zakariya Naddaf
• Mahmoud Al-Zoubi (ties into the case of Hamza Al-Khatib)
• SAFMCD Named Victims (a few odd cases where they have the names already)
• Nabil Sharbaji (alleged author of the famous and dubious '82 names' list and of some notes written after his death...)
  
• Abdulmuemen Alhaj Hamdo (the one that sparked a Spanish National Court case)
• Ahmad Musalmani (forthcoming)
• Ayham Ghazoul (f/c)
• The Other HRW cases (f/c)
• ... (forthcoming?)

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"Caesar" is widely advertised as totally winning, a hero for truth and justice, risking his life. But his life might be a work of fiction. No one can really know yet who the victims are and who killed them. But over the last ten months, I and teammates at A Closer Look On Syria have compiled some good analysis and questions on the page Torture Photos from "Caesar" and its talk page. This research is the starting basis for the material in the posts linked above. From the main page there,

the overview:
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Carter-Ruck report, figure 5

On January 21, 2014, the media grew abuzz with startling news - first broken the day before - of "industrial scale" torture, abuse, and murder of at least 11,000 Syrian prisoners by their government. Such claims were nothing new, but this time they were supported by actual photographs and some kind of study by professional investigators of such crimes. The unusually strong claims and noted parallels with Nazi death camps made waves, among other places, at the Geneva 2 peace conference which began in Montreaux the following day.

The claims were lodged originally by an alleged defector - code-named "Ceasar" - who says he was employed by the Syrian government as a morgue photographer. Over the first 29 months of the Syrian conflict, he says he collected copies of 55,000 digital images he says show about 11,000 dead victims, all of them executed prisoners of the Syrian government. Sometime in August, 2013, "Caesar" says he stopped taking new pictures, faked his own death, and escaped with his trove, as he says, "in order to stop the systematic torture." With funding from the Qatari royal family, the defector's narrative was bolstered with the hire of British law firm and a team of three war crimes prosecutors. The latter drafted a report - stamped "CONFIDENTIAL" but ultimately released on January 20th via Western Media in France, Turkey, the US, and UK. (see below) - that analyzed the photos, and passed on the back-story "Caesar" provided. The primary media reports added little to no skepticism, and political leaders have of course added none of their own as they reflexively push their well-known anti-Assad agendas.

It should be considered there are two parts to this evidence package; the actual photographs, and the alleged photographer's explanation of what they show. The 30+ images published, at least, do show systematic abuse of captive men, including signs of torture, starvation, and sometimes execution. While we cannot know how representative the few publicized photos truly are, it seems criminal abuses are being carried out in Syria, a problem that merits alarm and attention. "Caesar's" story may be true, but for all we know, many of these bodies passing through this morgue could have different true stories. For example, some of them (like the apparent Christian man in image #25 - see list here) could be of civilians hostages taken by rebel forces, executed and then dumped, and simply being documented by the government. It's only by trusting Caesar that one can be sure that's not even part of the picture.

The reasons to question or even doubt the defector's word are many, starting with the baseless claim that any code-name would protect him or his family from the Syrian government, if his employment story is true. All it really does is keep his identity secret from those he's appealing to, and suggests he may not be at all who he claims. [3] But these reasons have been ignored in a push by the powerful to indict and harm the Syrian government again, this time over distressingly ambiguous morgue photos.

"Caesar" has arguably been given more credibility than "Curveball" and "Nayirah" combined. Nonetheless, this project has proven less effective than some may have expected; throughout 2014 it continued with diminishing efforts to spur direct, perhaps military action against the Syrian government. The first release on January 20, as mentioned, complicated the peace talks starting on the 22nd. As the conflict ground on, some photos were presented to the UN Security Council in April in another fruitless effort to secure firmer action against the Syrian government. Some images plus the defector appeared before the US House of Representatives foreign policy council in late July. Then a select few images were displayed at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in October. These plus frequent media exclusives and interviews with countless uncritical echoes, as a New York Times article lamented on October 31, had so far "spurred outrage, but not action." [4]

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The cartoon below shows the one victim of the few shown so far that is apparently a Syrian Christian, a segment of the populace that the Sunni extremist anti-government rebels often kidnap and execute, for their religion and/or for supporting the government and resisting the rebellion. Other targeted classes, by the way, are Alawi, Shia, Kurds, and the majority of Syria's Sunnis who also support the government. They don't usually sport tattoos like this, so it's hard to tell whether or not you're looking at one, once he's been murdered in a photo that rebels wound up with in the end (if not from the start).

Note, Feb. 11, 2016: I can expand on the photographed Cristian victim now. The card always said (in other views) Branch 227 victim #2615 - that's the number on this SAFMCD entry with consistent face shot from folder 7-7-2013. Eye gouging isn't clear (partly blurred) but his eyes do seem at least damaged (chemically),  like many, many sets of eyes in here. Like the rest of those, he also has some red-purple irritation of the skin, mild cyanosis (blue blue lips), yellow crust in the eyes, and orange fluid (blood-mucous mix) running out of his nose and mouth, apparently bubbled or foamy at the mouth (blurred). That's besides being stabbed, starved, etc.  For what it's worth (not clear), his entry number is just 5 lower than eyes-gone Douma resident Mohammad Khaled al-Tout (he's 227-2620), and little ways into a long and horrible stretch of hundreds of mostly-starved bodies where half seem to have actually had their eyes totally removed (runs at least 2480 to 2824 - link on that maybe in time).

Other Assorted visual aids:
Famous victim with fan belt "highly consistent with  the ligature mark seen in a different individual," and put around his nech for unclear reasons. New details: logged Jan. 2013, victim 1043 from branch 227 (they say,) moderately starved, fit fighting age male, apparently exposed to a caustic chemical of the most common type.

How about victim 485 from branch 215, also photographed in 1-2013. This is a roughly teen-aged guy, perhaps adult but likely under 18 - he's been badly starved, perhaps tortured, and finally gassed, creating yellow mucous in the eyes, and burning the hell out of his neck, and causing him to spit up blood - most likely while being hanged upside-down, like many victims apparently were. The guy above might've looked like this before cleanup.

Seriously folks, words aside .... is this more like a Mukhabarat (Syrian military intelligence) extermination program, or one run by, say, al-Qaeda? 

Continuing with that thought, see this, and FC part 6.

...

Of Bettors and Debtors

Dr. Ali Tarhouni and "the True Voice of the Masses"
December 24, 2011
last edits, new title, Jan. 17, 2012

Dr.Ali Tarhouni was an exile during all but a few months of Gaddafi's "Arab Socialist" Jamahiriya system, studying free market economics in the United States, and teaching it at the University of Washington, Seattle. In February, he returned to Libya to join the new NTC (NATO Terrorist Collaborator) government as its oil and finance minister. Once the country was brutalized into submission, he would try and turn back the "growing ... resource nationalism" that had alarmed Western oil companies and the State Department from 2007 onward, helping make war more likely.

I had cheered his failure to be re-appointed to the post for the 2012 NTC team. But I was missing much about that. Now he's taken a bold new turn, it would seem, tossing off the shackles of indebtedness to would-be foreign controllers with material interests.

Vanessa Gera, Associated Press, November 25:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/25/ali-tarhouni-libya-new-leaders_n_1112889.html

http://articles.boston.com/2011-11-25/news/30441806_1_mustafa-abdul-jalil-oil-and-finance-minister-libyan-people

etc..

Tarhouni ... was one of the most visible and internationally respected faces of the Libyan revolutionary leadership that presided over the ouster of Moammar Gadhafi's regime.

But he said he refused an offer to join Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Keib's transitional Cabinet, because he believes that those now in power are not representative. He accused them of being "supported from the outside by money, arms and PR."

"The voices that we see now are the voices of the elite," he said.

The U.S.-educated [elite] Tarhouni, who managed the then-rebel government's financial system, is one of the first senior Libyan politicians to openly question the new government's legitimacy.

He said the countries who backed the rebellion have interests in Libya, "some which we know and some which we don't know." While he didn't elaborate, Tarhouni did not object when a journalist suggested that he was speaking about Qatar.

No one asked if he also meant France, the U.S., or the U.K. Would he have said yes? Or is he just picking on Qatar on behalf of the other partners, jealous as they are that the Gulf Arabs have greater sway with fellow Muslims than their own more familiar pale face of Imperialism?

"Some are thinking of imposing their will on the Libyan people and that's a mistake," Tarhouni said. "For me the question of sovereignty is the most important. This revolution was for re-establishing dignity and sovereignty."

No comment. Gera continues:

Earlier this week, the chairman of Libya's National Transitional Council, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, also indicated that Qatar was meddling in Libyan affairs.

He said Libyans remain grateful to "our brothers" in Qatar for supporting the revolt against Gadhafi, but said Qatar was doing some things in Libya "that we as the NTC don't know about." He said his leadership protested to Qatar's leaders, but was told that the Gulf state had a right to be involved because it "betted on the success" of the revolution.

If true, that sounds quite annoying.Who wants to be told they're like a racehorse someone's going to ride home now because of the money someone made betting on them? Especially when they couldn't even reach the finish line, and only won by default because the bettors had snipers in the stands killing all the other horses?

But again, the Qataris are far from the only ones doing that here. It was the intent of "The West" at large from February forward. Dr. Tarhouni, the American puppet (??), may be using the chasm of discontent his party unleashed in order to blame foreign meddling on junior partner Qatar and cut them out of the nation-building. I want the Qataris ripped off and punished now, just not by and for the benefit of the bigger bullies yet with a longer history of neo-Imperialism.

Anyways, whatever his motive, Tarhouni's new ideas are ambitious. A later article from the Washington Post gives hints where he's headed now, after a brief return to Seattle to see his family.

[O]n Tuesday he described [the NTC] as a good government, and said he would continue working to form a new, broad, democratic political party.

“There’s really no manual for building a state from scratch,” he said. “What makes it really tough is — we’re hoping, we’re dreaming, and I believe strongly we will succeed in building a democratic society — but there’s really no history of democracy in Libya. ... I thought I could serve it better by building this political movement.”

He'll be doing this in Libya, sounds like. For a hint of its flavor, maybe even going for the green vote (and thus acknowledging it exists):

Among the most memorable moments of his return to Libya from exile were standing in the capital, Tripoli, and declaring it to be free, as well as holding the hand of a crying, injured 14-year-old supporter of Gadhafi, he said.

“I told him, ‘You’re not my enemy,’” Tarhouni said. “He died three hours later.”

He was less saddened by the death of Gadhafi.

“I stood over his corpse the same day he was killed,” he said. “I thought of the comrades and friends who died in prison and never saw this day. ... I couldn’t believe this ugly corpse did this damage to Libya.”

No, it was the NTC and the bombs and other support from NATO countries and, yes, Qatar, that made an ugly corpse of their leader, killed that boy who loved him, and starved and wrecked the country, leaving all the questions about starting "from scratch."

Returning to the Gera piece for more foreshadowing:

Libya's new Cabinet, a gathering of mostly older men who are relatively unknown, faces daunting challenges. They must prepare the country for democratic elections in seven months while establishing control over a nation shattered by four decades of Gadhafi's rule and eight months of civil war.

Tarhouni said that more than 90 percent of Libyans are not represented by this new leadership.

"It is about time that we hear the true voices of the masses," he said.

What if that voice is loud and green? It was until July anyway, and nothing's changed since then but greater brute force, physical defeat, and a greater hate, kept deeper inside, for the Libyan Contras sent to stupidly and brutally subvert the country to outside powers.

I don't trust him in the long run but this type of statement should be rewarded and encouraged, especially as/if it gets more sincere and more meaningful.

Update Jan. 17:
Confirmation that Tarhouni is only helping sideline Qatar, not fighting foreign control: Italy Last Among Libya Friends for Potential Oil Concessions. Flavia Krause-Jackson, Bloomberg. January 09, 2012, 6:00 PM EST

France and the U.S. haven’t come across as “someone who is basically grabbing” and are “playing it right,” former Libyan Oil Minister Ali Tarhouni, who quit shortly after the capture and death of Qaddafi, said in an interview yesterday in Washington. Italy “will take time to figure it out.”

At stake is Italy’s position as the top energy investor in Libya, where its closest rivals are Total SA of France, which was the first country to recognize the Libyan opposition, and Russia’s Gazprom OAO. The U.S. and the U.K. joined France in leading efforts to win United Nations approval for air strikes against Qaddafi’s forces.

“We are indebted to the French, and I cannot find the right words to say it,” Tarhouni said, listing Libya’s “friends” in the following order: France, the U.S., Britain and Italy. “If everything else is the same, of course we will remember our friends.”

"Indebted" is just the right word. Time to start paying back. As for who's down the list even than Italy; Qatar, apparently, Russia and China (abstain and complain!), most of Africa (mercenaries!), and at the very end of the global list of friends of this revolution, battered to a pulp, is Libya.

Faking the Conquest of Tripoli: Really?

December 31, 2011

Contributor Petri Krohn suggested a post/discussion thread on this issue, explaining it as follows:
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Just before the fall of Tripoli Libyan propagandists were claiming that a copy of the Green Square had been set up in the desert near Doha, Qatar. When Tripoli was taken in August a video of rebels on the Green Square was first broadcast on al Jazeera on August 20th. Some Green supporters claimed that the video footage was fake and filmed in Qatar.

The evidence presented was flimsy; someone compared frames from the video to some on-line photos of the Green Square. Palm trees that were there in the 1960s were no longer there, missing details on the gate of the old city were gone because of the extreme compression of the mobile phone video (I do not know if you can call these "compression artifacts" as nothing was there.)

I thought the story would die in a matter of hours, unexpectedly it is still alive and kicking. Here is one of the original posts on Libya S.O.S. Here is one recently posted version in Finnish. I am afraid anyone sticking to this story will loose all credibility.

Who were the rebels on the Green Square on August 20th? Where did they come from? Where did they go?
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I have not much to offer, but here is a spot where anyone burning to know and share on this subject can post related comments.

I will add that on the apparent studio rigging next to the compound: Yes. They had been filming somewhat epic protests there against NATO/Rebel intervention, so the real Green (aka "Martyr's") Square had become in a sense a studio set. The fake studio set version of it you could spot by the lack of such scaffolding. They wouldn't want it to look like a studio!

Iman al-Obeidi Alleges More State Abuse

June 4/5, 2011
last update June 7

Rape Victim or Threat to Libya? 
I've covered Iman al-Obeidi only in passing at this blog so far, even though she's quite famous and important to most observers as the face of regime rape in Libya. My thinking is even if the rape allegations ganging up on Gaddafi are all disinformation, it really should have a better face than that. More evidence should exist, and it was to that I turned.

Her story is so crucial because of her powerful attention-grabbing entrance, among the more visually convenient moments of the propaganda war. She was detained for taking an allegation of a serious crime not to the proper authorities, but to the Rixos hotel, during a press conference. There, foreign media outlets hungrily took in her emotional account, note the bruises and marks that proved some type of abuse (rope marks around ankles, none around wrists), and photographed her unnerving arrest and removal.

The journalists' home nations were at the same time attacking, with high-tech bombs, Libya's government and system for any excuse that could be found. It's all but impossible to imagine a parallel situation where an American woman's words could have the kind of effect on the homeland that hers could on her own land in that context. I imagine the American Iman in that parallel universe would be dragged off and likely shot (it'd be a different country, really).

Whereabouts

Both her initial reported gang rape by soldiers and her enthusiastic introduction to fame are covered widely elsewhere, but not well enough. I won't try to fix that, however, until I've been able to look closer.

But she was dragged away by sinister Gaddafi thugs before she was done telling all. Western journalists were duly skeptical of the government's story of where she was afterwards. They said jail and then a crisis shelter, standard for Libyan rape victims who suffer additional social stigma unknown to Americans. But surely she was locked away being brainwashed into recanting, tortured for the hell of it, raped again, or just plain dead. Silenced, one way or another, it was suspected.

But she re-appeared, and was able to speak with western media on numerous occasions and told the same story. She was allowed apparent freedom of movement, but spoke of threats all around - a certain man who gave her a certain look, and so on, sending subtle messages. Clearly, she hinted, and the press amplified, she was afraid for her life there under the government's gaze.

Meanwhile, the men she had accused prepared a counter-suit for libel. Con artists and the truly threatened - two classes of people who like to skip town.

She said she felt trapped, and she wasn't allowed to leave legally. But in early May, about six weeks after making her allegation to some very accepting foreign enemies, she fled easily enough to Tunisia, with a simple disguise and the help of an army traitor. This "hero" was probably hired by the rebel council (TNC) to bring her to Benghazi before the upcoming trial exposed her as a fraud. 

From there, she wound up, reportedly with rebel help, in Doha Qatar, Arab capitol of rebel support.

A Rough Return Trip
For some reason, she was just now and to much protest all around shipped back to Libya. She landed in Benghazi, not Tripoli, but it was against her will, she says, and she was beaten up in the process.

Speaking to CNN on Thursday after she arrived in Benghazi, in eastern Libya, Ms. Obeidy said that she had been beaten, handcuffed and forced onto a Qatari military plane. A Libyan opposition activist who met Ms. Obeidy in Benghazi told CNN on Friday that she had a black eye, bruises on her legs and scratches on her arms. [source]

Not only Gaddafi's thugs, but even Qatar's security forces can't keep their hands off this woman, even scratching at her like wild animals, it would seem. It must be some energy she exudes, but the protests have already come in that Qatar has abused her Human Rights

I doubt we've heard the last of that. Is it possible she beat herself up to hurl accusations against anyone who doesn't do things her way? Yes, if the trick had previously been used and rewarded. How long till the rebels currently protecting her allegedly toss her through a first-floor (open) window?

The UK Daily Fail says right out she was "sent BACK to Gaddafi," which would be right - she's got a libel trial to show up at and defend her possibly lying self. But that's not how it happened, and that's not why she was sent back.

Why?
Al-Obeidi was sent back, against her own will, international law, and even the wishes of the United States. As noted in a strangely-titled AFP article "US scores Qatar deportation of alleged Libyan rape victim."

US officials had repeatedly asked the Qatari government to allow Iman Obeidi to "travel with UNHCR (High Commissioner for Refugees) officials to a safe third country," State Department deputy spokesman Mark Toner said.
"So we were disappointed at her forced return (to Libya), and we believe it's a breach of humanitarian norms," Toner said.

Associated Press

Sybella Wilkes, spokeswoman for the United Nations' refugee organization, added that Al-Obeidi was a recognized refugee.
And she said there was not any 'good reason' why she was deported from Doha, where she sought refuge last month.
Human Rights Watch said 'this kind of deportation' was ilelegal under international law.

If they're breaking the law for "no good reason" that's evident, trust that there's a good reason. You just can't see it, and should ask why. One site offers, as speculation, that since "Qatar has formally recognized the rebel regime in Benghazi," Qatar perhaps "thinks that this recognition means that it is OK to deport al-Obeidi to territory under control of a "legitimate" regime." But that just seems inadequate.

Besides the violation of will, emotional stress, etc. there's physical danger, some fear.

Asked if her life is at risk in opposition-held areas, [Mark] Toner replied: "It's difficult to say. We believe her life is clearly at risk in Libya... We've expressed our concern to the TNC that her security be looked at."

What the hell? "Clearly in danger"" How is that clear? She lived in Tripoli itself, at the government's total mercy, for six weeks, always afraid for her safety and of being silenced, but allowed to complain of it endlessly to journalists, without once being killed. So she's paranoid. She wasn't even kept under control enough to prevent her flight abroad.

Now we're to be worried that some sleeper cell of Gaddafi loyalists inside Benghazi is going to do what? Kill her now after she's told the story a dozen times, had the world believed it, and has now discredited herself by accusing yet another government of serious abuse? There's no logical reason to do that or to suspect anyone of planning to do so. This threat might have finally defused itself.

The main danger to her life is the possible propaganda value such a ridiculous assassination would hold - she may risk a false-flag "silencing." It might provide enough push to finally topple the regime what killed that poor martyr for freedom. Barring that, the alleged sleeper cell attack could at least justify a bloody purge of fifth columnists within Benghazi.

Her hysterical energy and initial chutzpah has been recognized by the entrepreneurs at the TNC as an asset - and an abundant one. Expect a squeeze. Something spurred the Qataris to make this unpopular decision. Perhaps it was the advice of the foreign sinister Moussa Koussa, from Doha helping steer the war against Gaddafi.

Anyway, for whatever reason, someone in Qatar decided she'd be of most use in the war effort closer to such perceived dangers. If she winds up "silenced" by a loyalist attack, or just has an "attempt" made, please note that I called it.
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Update June 5/7: That was short-lived. She's being sent to Malta, reportedly, along with her father this time, or perhaps to Italy, and thence onto Romania, as previously planned.  Has a note of attempted, quiet finality to it. Perhaps the unexpected Qatari "beating" along with the flight was the last straw. Thank goodness. As you can see, that move was "weirding me out."

Desperate for Recognition / Gambia?

May 24 2011
last edits June 3 2011

Desperation in Action
It seems the pathetic puppets of the Libyan rebel Transitional National Council (TNC) are craving recognition; that is, as the legitimate government of all Libya. They're still outnumbered on the ground, in Libya, by people who reject their insane rebellion. And they still lack the official nod from the mighty US and the UK, for somewhat murky reasons, but have had for some time now that honor from a triad of large-ish players - France, Italy, and Qatar, plus a few later additions.

Perhaps hoping to start a fad out of it, the TNC has been caught stretching the truth a little as to who else was willing to call NATO's ragtag, "outunmbered" foot soldiers "the government of Libya."
Radio Australia News, May 6

Several countries have denied claims they have recognised a rebel council as the valid government of Libya.

Rebels in Benghazi have claimed that Canada, Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands have become the latest states to recognise the council, which was set up to rival the regime of Colonel Moammar Gadaffi.

However three of those governments - Spain, Canada and the Netherlands - have denied the rebels' claims.

Denmark had also denied it, in a perfect four-for-four fail. Reuters, May 5

Denmark denied on Thursday that it had officially recognized Libya’s Transitional National Council (TNC) of rebels, but said it did recognize the organization as a relevant partner for dialogue.

That's not how it was supposed to work. They were supposed to be so inspired the rebels' proud proclamation to go ahead and confirm the allegation by recognizing the TNC. That it failed is a somewhat bad sign for them, and something they obviously should not have tried.

The Ones Not Joined: The Triad
those who do recognize the rebels as the legitimate arbiters of Libya's future are a telling lot with each their own unstated true motives. There are six total, last I heard, and we should start with the main and original three, France, Qatar, and Italy.

France was the visionary leader in proclaiming the future of Libya. Little surprise, given they hosted a defector from late 2010 who reportedly helped France link up with and assist coup plotters at home. This was apparently sewn into the planned February protests, which did instantly turn to a suprisingly effective military campaign to take over the whole country. After this happened, the French were the first to recognize the rebels, and loudest in promoting and carrying out high-tech air support for their advance to Tripoli. They were reportedly promised a third of all Libyan oil contracts around the same time they started this little club.

The Persian Gulf Island state of Qatar is an authoritarian capitalist Islamic petro-kingdom, not unlike Bahrain where the US has given a nod to a repression of protesters worse than anything Gaddafi's forces actually did. Qatar was, I believe, the second nation to join France's club and recognizing the rebels. Qatar is reportedly helping manage the first of Eastern Libya's oil exports, and they've hosted both a top-level meeting on Libya's future, and their top defector, Moussa Koussa. This reviled but apparently immune foreign minister and longtime regime villain is reportedly, from Qatar, helping NATO identify buildings to bomb in the hopes of killing Gaddafi. Er, taking out command and control.

Qatar has also helped all along with, at the very least, the Qatari-owned Arab news juggernaut al Jazeera. The network's coverage of this uprising has been notably irresponsible and alarmist, especially at first when it mattered most and helped fuel the chaos Qatar is now profiting from.

Italy was I think the third to join, but as I recall, had been the first in all the world to declare Gaddafi's government non-existent. This really cuts more to the chase, doesn't it? Thay have a history in Libya too deep for me to touch yet, a huge current dependence on their oil, and so on. They also, it's said, have a lot to lose, many outstanding arrangements, but these were cut off with the early decision to erase the old regime. It's only the later decision to directly support the rebels, with diplomatically and militarily, that has caused problems selling the idea at home under Berlusconi's shaky leadership. A more robust involvement in line with France and Qatar, or the US and UK for that matter, is thus unlikely to come from Italy.

The Other Three
As for who else has joined the original three, I've seen two versions, but I'm going with the latter.
RadioAustralia:

France, Italy, Qatar and Ghana have already recognised the National Transitional Council, which is based in the rebel stronghold of Benghazi, as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people.

China Daily, May 4

So far six countries -- France, Italy, Qatar, Maldives, Kuwait and The Gambia -- have officially recognized the rebels' "lawful status" in Libya.

Both Ghana and Gambia are in sub-Saharan, western Africa. Either would be an odd choice, odd enough to consider the one I find better supported, Gambia, seperately below. Maldives, a nation of tiny islands south of India - I have no insights on their reasons. Sorry.

Kuwait, however, is another Gulf state like Qatar and Bahrain. It has no appetite for its own protesters, but Gaddafi's they seem to be lapping at. They have probably the same interests in oil as Qatar, and likely some plans to promote their best ideas of Islam in Libya, or whatever.

And, as the originators of the war-enabling Iraqi army baby incubators story, Kuwait's royals have to be quite impressed with one aspect of this war. A legion of impersonators of that scripted PR episode has been flowing from the rebel side in an unprecedented info war (snipers shooting kids, mass rapes by Afro-mercs on viagra, targetting the faithful at the mosque on a Friday, chemical warfare plans, etc.)

Gambia Recognizes the Rebels?
But I see no obvious reason for sub-Saharan Africans to support the rebels, and a few decent reasons for them to specifically support Gaddafi. (At least ideologically, if not in practice). To join this small club usually takes some solid interest and a little bit of risk on the world stage.

Gaddafi's pan-African vision, and generous aid to help the continent develop and, eventualy, unify, are popular in countries like Ghana and Gambia. Both are cited (Ghana perhaps in error) as recognizing the rebels, who hate Gaddafi's pan-African vision, and represent some nasty racists who - at least briefly - hated black Africans enough to kill probably hundreds. And they captured many more, nearly universally for the crime of "African mercenary."(side-note: an okay article from Gambia on the "mercenaries" allegations)


Gambia, or The Gambia, a tiny nation that's mostly a river on the western apex of Africa, is not a natural addition to the club. What interest do they have in creating the new Libya? All I'm aware of in particular linking the two countries is a number of foreign workers in Libya captured by rebels. One with an interesting story hailed from Gambia before being arrested, and then shown to Western journalists, as a foreign Gaddafi-paid mercenary. LA Times, March 23 related his account after he suddenly spoke up out of turn:

"I am a worker, not a fighter. They took me from my house and [raped] my wife," he said, gesturing with his hands. Before he could say much more, a pair of guards told him to shut up and hustled him through the steel doors of a cell block, which quickly slammed behind them.

Several reporters protested and the man was eventually brought back out. He spoke in broken, heavily accented English and it was hard to hear and understand him amid the scrum of scribes pushing closer. He said his name was Alfusainey Kambi, and again professed innocence before being confronted by an opposition official, who produced two Gambian passports. One was old and tattered and the other new. And for some reason, the official said the documents were proof positive that Kambi was a Kadafi operative.
[...]
[O]ur interpreter, a Libyan national, asked [LA Times reported David] Zucchino: "So what do you think? Should we just go ahead and kill them?"

Even when the charges are clearly unsafe, there's a possible motive for the rebel captors in such cases to stubbornly insist their wards are in fact criminal mercenaries. Guilty until proven innocent has always been the standard against Gaddafi, and the rebels know this. Those familiar with the US justice system know similar attitudes all too easily stick to people of color, and deep-east Libya seems to have the same problem.

This allows them to hold people, who want to go home and have homes that want them. That could, to a shrewd and unethical mind, present an opportunity - bargain the return of these men "guilty, er, possibly guilty of very serious crimes, punishable by death in our laws," in exchange for, "oh, say ... diplomatic recognition?"

A Precedent? The Southern Tribes
Other captured Afro-mercs, 157 of them taken en masse in and near al-Baida, were seen by an official from Human Rights Watch in early March. He found they were partly southern, black-skinned Libyans of long-native tribes, and partly Libyan dual-nationals from elsewhere in Africa. None were foreign mercenaries as claimed by the rebels. All were reportedly released, but we can't really be sure that was done without any strings attached.

The recent tribal council of May, in Tripoli, was criticized mainly for not haing all the tribes represented there.  Richard Boudreaux, Wall Street Journal:

Absent were eastern tribes and western Berber tribes, which have been hostile to the Col. Gadhafi during his four decades of rule, and tribes from the south that have sought to remain neutral in the 11-week-old uprising.

Most information I see suggests these tribes would and usually do support Gaddafi. They haven't formally embraced the rebels, but have for some reason chosen to sit things out, lessening the tribal array against NATO's upstarts. What is it about the rebels that gives them such a magic touch with their darker-skinned neighbors in and around Libya - this African country they're taking over for the Gulf Arabs and the Euro-Americans?