October 21, 2018
edits Oct. 23, 25, 29
Since the SAFMCD (Syrian Association for Missing and Conscience Detainees) released the "Caesar photos" face-shots in March, 2015 (database), I've been collecting the images and linked data (alleged prisoner ID# and folder date), first a solid sampling, and later trying for complete coverage. That was daunting; about 6,700 (IIRC) individuals are said to represented in a total pool of 6,796 photos.
The huge folder for alleged prisoners of Military Intelligence branch 215 contains over half the total, 3,556 photos, and I have - I think - 3,284 of them, so I'm missing 272. 92% collected. The other slightly smaller half of the photos, in the large 227 folder and several smaller folders, may be entirely covered - not just 100% rounded up, but none missing. Or, likely, I'm missing one, or a very few here and there. Averaging 92 and 100, I have it about 95% covered. After filling in the entire 227 folder, I decided the hassle isn't warranted to do the same for the much bigger 215 folder, and I'll proceed with new analysis with that majority of the data.
In review, the smuggled photos show bodies of men and older boys gathered partly, and probably entirely, at a garage area behind military hospital 601 in Damascus. They're allegedly political prisoners tortured to death in a systematic process by an insane Syrian government. The number is huge; allegedly 11,000 detainees, but that number has been argued two different ways.
Rather, I see about 10,000 unidentified bodies, perhaps 11,000, most of which were tortured detainees, but probably held by opposition groups, with the most likely being the local Saudi-backed militants of Liwa Al-Islam, later Jaish Al-Islam. Quite a few clues support their NOT being prisoners of the government, anyway. They would be exterminated, and the bodies dumped in batches somewhere the government could claim and process them as unknowns. They would have fake MI prisoner numbers arbitrarily assigned, written on the bodies. Officially, these would be ignored, but the insider "Caesar" would run fake photo shoots with his own cards "confirming" those numbers as part of a government system.
Others that seemed worth mapping mainly in the early stretch, I call H# insertions - as explained here, the patterns involved are fairly clear that these are people with no prisoner ID#, that had one made up from re-branding their body number. So H#444, coming through at a time when the H# should be 444, might become branch 227 prisoner #444, even if there already is one at the right time months later, making for a confusing double-entry.
Early on, I set to organizing these hospital numbers - seen and suggested - according to the dates given for the victim's SAFMCD entry. I've been using this colorful timeline in different forms, from back in 2015-2016 - pretty well-filled-in and accurate, but not as useful as it could be. (top: full span of coverage, but left vague - below, the main 9 months in more detail)
Now I've got a fuller data set, done more review on folder sizes and spread, and I was having more questions about the timeline, it seemed time for a new graphic. Obviously, this size is not readable here, even in a new window - see also 2,992 pixels wide version at ACLOS.
Some notes here on the system: the timeline notes at least two entries in the 4-6-2013 range appear in the folder for February. But this looks like a simple error where a few files were dropped in the wrong folder - as this shows with 2 matches, the H# is just as out of sequence for February as their 213 numbers are. It's mainly sequential, with "prisoner" or "branch body" numbers and the linked H# ticking up steadily over time. There is some folder-mixing, (see June 24-July 26, 2013, other spots), and it's clear folders were largely compiled later.
24-6, 7-7, and 26-7 come out largely intermixed, suggesting a common batch collected from 3 times - a later division, rather than actual on-date collection. Some 215 entries are ordered so it's June 24, then July 26 (seeing it as June 26), then it's July 7. (see below, errors at the red lines). There are even more intermixed entries before and after this patch as correctly ordered as most other entries.)
Selective collection: some analysis on the last folders shows some months whole branches were skipped, or collected from exclusively, presumably drawing at different dates from the same (but growing) prior span of time.
7-7 folder: 439 images, including:
215: 279
AF: 8
216: 22
other: 13
26-7 folder: 218 images. including:
215: 78
227 : 106
AF: 0
216: 21
other: 13
later 000 folder, 143 total includes:
215: 0
227: 117
AF: unclear
216: 14
other: 12
6(-8)-2013 folder: total 62. includes:
215: 62
everyone else: 0
14-8-2013 - final folder: total 126. includes:
215: 55
227: 45
AF: 0
216: 18
other: 8
But far more interesting is the Story behind those 19 tags marking the growth of a mysterious system that claimed several thousand lives around Damascus. All those angled connections show the basic degree to which we have a lot of bodies in the later half of this timeline after a long and slow start-up. It's not the steady, systematic machine killing since the start, as presented. It took off a bit slower, more like how Islamist militants grew as a threat, and at about the same time. From there it went steadily like a serious killing machine.
Or as I had recently put it:
11,000 bodies from March 2011 to August, 2013 sounds terrible but plausible for a steady killing machine trying to nip a rebellion in the bud - but the first 18 months saw relatively few of these bodies, 2,000 or so total - taking off horribly, nine-fold, as that bud was not full nipped and started to blossom, in the last 1/3 of the span. From November 2012 to August 2013, a further 9,000 or so bodies passed through this system, or about 1,000 bodies a month.
As I discovered with more analysis, the numbers take off a bit earlier than I had thought. As the timeline notes along the bottom, it's a tale with phases, and can be summarized in 3 parts:
* 200 bodies/year for a year,
* then 200 per month for 8 months,
* then an average of about 1,000 bodies a month for 9 months.
Then the show might end. One hopes so, after that kind of carnage. The following breaks that down in a little more detail with the 17 dated cases added to the new timeline.
2011-2012: A Floundering Kill System
The first entries are too sporadic for a clear pattern to emerge, but a span around 170-200 appearing in a folder dated march, 2012, looks consistent. One of these, something (I think unidentified body) #191, is given a specific date of 6 March, 2012. Actual photo date could be the same or earlier (or possibly later?). So it's not the clearest point, but clearer numbers start not far off, not much higher, but climbing quickly from there.
This would start us with a picture of 190 bodies logged by then, just about one year into the uprising. That's roughly one body every other day. That's not good, but very mild compared to what followed.
Two entries from the 500-600 range offer dates. The SAA soldier Alaa Rabha - not defected that anyone mentions - would have unidentified body #563 when found, maybe after being abducted. Or so I surmise from his entry (even though it's one of the few that also gives a name: "sporadic views" 563 1-5-2012 Alaa Yahya Alddar Rabha) and how well that fits with others in that span (he's not the only one, just the one with a day date). But he was apparently identified soon; the opposition VDC lsts May 20 as his death date, citing a SANA report on a funeral for 18 slain soldiers, including him, on 22 May. (see here)
20 May from 6 March is 2.5 months, in which 372 bodies passed through hospital 601, if these are the H#s I think they are. It's risen from a body every two days in the first year to five per day, a ten-fold increase -185/month compared to 190 in a year.
Abdullah Arslan Hariri - who was allegedly no militant, but who appears shot in the head in a bloody manner - has a lower number over two listings: just 535 in "anonymous" (unknown) branch folder, and in "sporadic views" as 9th division's #535. But his reported date of arrest - or killing, and finding his body - is later, June 16 at the earliest (HRW 12-2015). He may not count, with that 535 appearing in some coincidence. He lived and died/was arrested near Nimr, Daraa, so he may not even wind up at Hospital 601 under their number system. He might instead show Daraa's local finds had reached about the same number. That seems plausible, up to then at least.
Mohamed Majid Abu Draa is an interesting case some 500 bodies later. #1075 is faint but readable on the card here. He's listed twice by the SAFMCD as 215-1075, 1-7-2012 (but there's another 1075 that fits in 2013), and as 227-251, but out of the usual sequence. That's twice inserted, once using the H#. I have a post just for him, and there were reports about him at the time, including a date with the most specific claims - someone said July 27 is when he was shot five times and run over by "Shabiha" in a security forces car, before they arrested him, took him to the hospital, or arrested him from the hospital. When they finally killed him is less clear.
But he's in the hospital probably right after that event. He has electrodes in place for heart monitoring (looking for a pulse - he seemed possibly dead), with multiple spots patched (shoulder, shoulder, side, at least 3 likely gunshots), and a hand injury treated with cream (run over?), all as if alive at one point. But then he's shown posed holding a card with a body number as if dead - and unidentified, like 1,074 before him. July 1 and June 6 are given dates, but the 27th is a better fit with his appearing at the end of a folder starting July 1 - covering very many bodies with very low sampling (they don't show much - at least 58 photos for about 500 bodies).
This would start us with a picture of 190 bodies logged by then, just about one year into the uprising. That's roughly one body every other day. That's not good, but very mild compared to what followed.
20 May from 6 March is 2.5 months, in which 372 bodies passed through hospital 601, if these are the H#s I think they are. It's risen from a body every two days in the first year to five per day, a ten-fold increase -185/month compared to 190 in a year.
Abdullah Arslan Hariri - who was allegedly no militant, but who appears shot in the head in a bloody manner - has a lower number over two listings: just 535 in "anonymous" (unknown) branch folder, and in "sporadic views" as 9th division's #535. But his reported date of arrest - or killing, and finding his body - is later, June 16 at the earliest (HRW 12-2015). He may not count, with that 535 appearing in some coincidence. He lived and died/was arrested near Nimr, Daraa, so he may not even wind up at Hospital 601 under their number system. He might instead show Daraa's local finds had reached about the same number. That seems plausible, up to then at least.
Mohamed Majid Abu Draa is an interesting case some 500 bodies later. #1075 is faint but readable on the card here. He's listed twice by the SAFMCD as 215-1075, 1-7-2012 (but there's another 1075 that fits in 2013), and as 227-251, but out of the usual sequence. That's twice inserted, once using the H#. I have a post just for him, and there were reports about him at the time, including a date with the most specific claims - someone said July 27 is when he was shot five times and run over by "Shabiha" in a security forces car, before they arrested him, took him to the hospital, or arrested him from the hospital. When they finally killed him is less clear.
That fits great with an implied hospital number 1129 on teenager Ahmad Musalmani, early in the August folder - but given as his AF intel prisoner number. He was said to be killed on 2 August, yanked off a bus and shot for having an unpatriotic song on his mp3 player. Another guy on the bus, allegedly, told his family all about it. (HRW 12-2015) That's 6 days and 54 found, unidentified bodies after Mr. Abu Draa (9 bodies/day). Here's the sequence of H# insertions he's part of, 1121-1144, all logged in the 1-8 folder, but given as prisoner numbers divided up - here, over three branches, with some entries left out.
235-1232 just gives a date - Aug. 17. Taken as photo date (not a certainty), that's 103 bodies after Ahmad in 15 days. That would be consistent. Again, too few bodies in those days were getting labeled as specific regime prisoners, and had their unidentified body # used to create fake prisoner IDs later.
The August folder is rather small, seems incomplete, and is followed by a big gap, with September and October, 2012 left off. It could be "Caesar" had lost access or an inside connection for a time. It seems the killing continued, with about 700 bodies missed in the interim. That would be 350/month, if that's the actual span of their cataloguing, and it was just starting to expand. Whoever was behind it, it's alarming how steady this huge output remains, month after month, as numerous people keep cooperating is this mass murder and expanding it, eventually, to 3-5 times this rate.
Two dated entries early in the month anchor this important folder consistently as starting around 1-11.
The peaceful activist Ayham Ghazoul, one of the most well-known "Caesar photo" victims, is said to die on 9 or 11 November (sources differ), a few days after a murky second arrest. A guy who held Ayham in his arms as he died - allegedly - told his family all about it. (HRW 12-2015, others) He blames a simple beating, which wouldn't explain the bloodshot eyes with yellow crust, the skin irritation and faintly purple color, yellow mucous staining of his face... like the one example above, he's a less obvious case than some.
Ayham's photos show the hospital number 2129. About a week earlier, a dated insertion #2049, branded as an AF intel "j" prisoner of that number, was gathered on 3 November. 2049 to 2129 would mark 80 bodies intervening in those 6-8 days.
The Summer Spike's Suspect Scheduling
After the scrambled folders, there are three final ones closing the show before "Caesar" fled. First is an undated 000 folder. I estimate that at about august 1 - a date going blank makes sense here, and the numbers make sense. No span clear with just one H# found, only via Channel 4 recently, but with 143 photos included, it must cover at least 143 bodies.
The August folder is rather small, seems incomplete, and is followed by a big gap, with September and October, 2012 left off. It could be "Caesar" had lost access or an inside connection for a time. It seems the killing continued, with about 700 bodies missed in the interim. That would be 350/month, if that's the actual span of their cataloguing, and it was just starting to expand. Whoever was behind it, it's alarming how steady this huge output remains, month after month, as numerous people keep cooperating is this mass murder and expanding it, eventually, to 3-5 times this rate.
November Uptick: 500/Month
If "Caesar" was locked out for a time in September and October, he got back in. A November folder renews coverage of an expanded kill system, once he was back to "document the regime crimes." Here solid streams of 215, 227, and other MI branch's alleged detainees appear with virtually every number seen. With less need to invent prisoner numbers, we see less of those H# insertions from here on.
We can also see the solidification of an issue seen sporadically from the start; some people appear killed by caustic gasses. By November and from then on, a solid majority do. They come out purple-colored, with red, irritated eyes, and blood and mucous coughed up their faces from damaged lungs, as it seems, while they were suspended upside-down. At right is one of the less obvious examples. He's been washed up well, but had the same thing happen. No one has mentioned the gas chamber killing of these supposed "Assad regime" prisoners, but the signs are right there.
If "Caesar" was locked out for a time in September and October, he got back in. A November folder renews coverage of an expanded kill system, once he was back to "document the regime crimes." Here solid streams of 215, 227, and other MI branch's alleged detainees appear with virtually every number seen. With less need to invent prisoner numbers, we see less of those H# insertions from here on.
The 1-11-2012 folder has solid sampling, with at least 419 photos out of a spread probably not much over 500 bodies wide. I wondered if this covered the prior months, but I don't think so. It seems those were just missed, and this is about 500 bodies, just in November.
Two dated entries early in the month anchor this important folder consistently as starting around 1-11.
Ayham's photos show the hospital number 2129. About a week earlier, a dated insertion #2049, branded as an AF intel "j" prisoner of that number, was gathered on 3 November. 2049 to 2129 would mark 80 bodies intervening in those 6-8 days.
December entries seem to be gathered later in sporadic folders on at least Dec. 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, and 17, and then a seemingly later and larger folder "12-2012." A dateless 000 folder gathers some in the span as well. The total span covered in a bit unclear - at least 300 bodies, perhaps over 500. Three of these also have hospital number visible, 2 of them date-matched to Dec. 9 and 10, starting 525 bodies after Ayham Ghazoul, one month earlier.
2013 Uptick: 1,000-1,500/Month and /b Switch
The next datable cases are way out 1,800 bodies later - but it's only 80 days since the December entries, at the end of February. their numbers suggest 23 bodies/day since 10 December. But here 2 SAFMCD entries (27 and 28 Feb.) number 4521 and 4571, suggesting 50 bodies passed through in a day (or in the two days combined?). The overall rate is increasing: about 300/month, then 500, and now close to the 2013 average of 1,000/month.
The folders between show this continued increase.January, 2013 has the biggest collection yet - 448 photos covering an somewhere between 400 and 700 logged bodies. February is larger yet, 569 photos covering a span of at least 900, maybe over 1,000 bodies
Here at the end of February, we're nearing the 5,000 mark. Whoever is running the numbers here stop there or just shy (4,999, presumably) and start numbering again at 1, but with a letter suffix that translates /b. Why? Any 4-digit number system will run out at 9999, and have to go to 5 digits, or re-start at 0. But there's no clear reason at 5,000.
Maybe some plotters wanted to show the system maxing out its number system and just "re-setting the odometer" so they could keep on killing. But around the middle, they feared they wouldn't be able to keep it running all the way to 9999, so they went for a switch halfway. I've taken the H# as likely legitimate, and maybe it was to this point or past. But that switch has me wondering if someone more theatrical took over the numbering at some point, and possibly from the start.
Anyway, 4999 and then 0/b come somewhere in the middle of this March folder. 68/b (or body 5,068) is the first seen hospital number with a date, on "235-55." At right, a photo with his hospital number (center, it's 68/b). (next to him, a Palestinian tattoo (of Gaza, I think) is highlighted on another guy by Zaman al-Wasl). The SAFMCD entry for 235-55 makes total sense if 3-6 (usually meaning June 3rd) actually means March 6. This does seem to happen sometimes. That would be about 500 bodies (collected) in 6 days, when it was just taking a month to do that. Maybe that doesn't fit. June 3 is too late though; that would be a later collection of an old March photo just before the 4-6 folder.
The next datable cases are way out 1,800 bodies later - but it's only 80 days since the December entries, at the end of February. their numbers suggest 23 bodies/day since 10 December. But here 2 SAFMCD entries (27 and 28 Feb.) number 4521 and 4571, suggesting 50 bodies passed through in a day (or in the two days combined?). The overall rate is increasing: about 300/month, then 500, and now close to the 2013 average of 1,000/month.
The folders between show this continued increase.January, 2013 has the biggest collection yet - 448 photos covering an somewhere between 400 and 700 logged bodies. February is larger yet, 569 photos covering a span of at least 900, maybe over 1,000 bodies
Here at the end of February, we're nearing the 5,000 mark. Whoever is running the numbers here stop there or just shy (4,999, presumably) and start numbering again at 1, but with a letter suffix that translates /b. Why? Any 4-digit number system will run out at 9999, and have to go to 5 digits, or re-start at 0. But there's no clear reason at 5,000.
Maybe some plotters wanted to show the system maxing out its number system and just "re-setting the odometer" so they could keep on killing. But around the middle, they feared they wouldn't be able to keep it running all the way to 9999, so they went for a switch halfway. I've taken the H# as likely legitimate, and maybe it was to this point or past. But that switch has me wondering if someone more theatrical took over the numbering at some point, and possibly from the start.
Hospital number 330/b was used for Mohamed Tariq Majid who, per the 2015 HRW report, died "about a month" after or "within a month" of a February 16 detention. That's according to alleged former prisoners, but good enough to map March 10-15 in a span with fewer IDs and stories or dated entries. It lines up well enough, not that there's as much to compare it to. At body #5,330, that's about 760 in the roughly 2 weeks since the late-February ones. That's a lot of bodies. Maybe the above entry is correct after all, and the average here comes out like 1,500-2,000 bodies/month? Maybe. But neither of these points is really solid.
Just by size the March folder is huge - 1,016 photos covering a span not much wider - perhaps 1,100-1,200 bodies. And it seem incomplete, with Mr. Majid dying in the middle of the month, but near the end of its coverage. And then there's no April or May folder. That's similar to August-October period in 2012, where an incomplete folder is followed by 2 missing ones. But this time it seems the photos in this span were gathered eventually, with an enormous June 4 folder collecting photos spanning back right to where 3-2013 left off, so covering May, April, and probably some part of March.
Just by size the March folder is huge - 1,016 photos covering a span not much wider - perhaps 1,100-1,200 bodies. And it seem incomplete, with Mr. Majid dying in the middle of the month, but near the end of its coverage. And then there's no April or May folder. That's similar to August-October period in 2012, where an incomplete folder is followed by 2 missing ones. But this time it seems the photos in this span were gathered eventually, with an enormous June 4 folder collecting photos spanning back right to where 3-2013 left off, so covering May, April, and probably some part of March.
After Mr. Majid at 330/b, there's a span of about 2,300 bodies that passes before another H# is visible, and it's several in a row. The numbers 2614/b - 2624/b are used for a batch of 11 "branch 215 detainees" 3003, 4, 5, 6, and so on - only the first 4 seen in a document shown in HRW's 2015 report. The memo is dubious, to be examined, but the photos are clearly real and match with SAFMCD photos for those guys, all appearing in the later 4-6 folder. The memo date seems logical, probably the real day or close.
24 May would be a lone but firm anchor point way out - nearly 2300 bodies after Mr. Majid, in a suggested 70 days. That's 33 a day or 1,000/month, which the timeline suggests is about the overall average through 2013, if possibly a downturn from early March.
24 May would be a lone but firm anchor point way out - nearly 2300 bodies after Mr. Majid, in a suggested 70 days. That's 33 a day or 1,000/month, which the timeline suggests is about the overall average through 2013, if possibly a downturn from early March.
After that, I only have two estimates I happened to make. These are based on 24 May and that daily average of 33, and on correlating placement within folder spans, to estimate a best-guess day (4 June for the purple 227-2040, and 29 July for the healthy-color but eye-gouged 227-2668). That would be too early to match with the deceased detainees of branch 227, as alleged by HRW and CIJA. That's not certain, but I make a good case that the hospital's numbering of death cases happened to nearly line up with the 227 subtotal during this span. it could be that plausible coincidence creating these 2 illusions, and maybe even more - among 227-credited bodies in this span, and nowhere else.
2,000-2200 bodies are covered in 4-6. The time span is unclear, but possibly back to about March 20, or the start of April at the latest. 2-2.5 months might make this a bit below average, but it seems incomplete. A smaller 7-6 folder was compiled 3 days later, and may complete the catch-up and bring the collection current; the mentioned 227-2040 is in the middle of this folder, but by daily averages from May 24, his photo should be about 4 June.
256 photos in 7-6 cover a span between 200 and 450 bodies wide (unclear). So these two June folders combined cover 2,200-2,650 bodies, in the span of about 2-2.5 months: about 1,000 to 1,325 per month. All considered, it seems about average.
2,000-2200 bodies are covered in 4-6. The time span is unclear, but possibly back to about March 20, or the start of April at the latest. 2-2.5 months might make this a bit below average, but it seems incomplete. A smaller 7-6 folder was compiled 3 days later, and may complete the catch-up and bring the collection current; the mentioned 227-2040 is in the middle of this folder, but by daily averages from May 24, his photo should be about 4 June.
256 photos in 7-6 cover a span between 200 and 450 bodies wide (unclear). So these two June folders combined cover 2,200-2,650 bodies, in the span of about 2-2.5 months: about 1,000 to 1,325 per month. All considered, it seems about average.
The Summer Spike's Suspect Scheduling
Starting after the huge 4-6 folder comes the intermixed 24-6, 7-7, and 26-7 folders. Considering the scrambled timeline mentioned at the start, the new graphic just gives a collective total for 24 June to 26 July = 1,201 saved photos, over a span of app. 1,500-1,600 numbered bodies, collected in just over one month. This may reach back before 24 June, or reflect just one month of mayhem, some 50% higher than usual. That would be heavy: 50 bodies in an average day, and more on a bad one.
Note 10-23: yes it reaches before 24 June. I know this but forgot it all though writing. It should cover from 7 June, IF things were brought current then, and further back otherwise. So this is a longer span of about 50 days. 1,500 would be 30 a day, a bit under average. 1600 a bit over. So about the spike I wrote about below … replace with continued steady stream, and the other points remain interesting...
Note 10-23: yes it reaches before 24 June. I know this but forgot it all though writing. It should cover from 7 June, IF things were brought current then, and further back otherwise. So this is a longer span of about 50 days. 1,500 would be 30 a day, a bit under average. 1600 a bit over. So about the spike I wrote about below … replace with continued steady stream, and the other points remain interesting...
Now think about how this spike happens to come as "Caesar's" documentation project drew to a close. Is that a coincidence? It's worth wondering who might know that the insider was planning to feel unsafe and close up shop pretty soon. If they were the same people sending him all these bodies, they might use the knowledge to provide a grand finale. In fact, "Caesar's" timing might be based on plans of theirs he became aware of.
This is also when less signs of chemical extermination appear. Instead, most men have their eyes gouged out, no matter what alleged branch of military intelligence was holding him (see 227-2668 above, and the 8 samples below, and note they run further back, into the June folders, but no earlier).
…
Was someone in the Damascus area saving up toxic gas here in the late summer of 2013? When Caesar would flee on 20 August, and hundreds would die that night in the Ghouta chemical massacre? We think terrorists gassed hostages for that even, this time including women and children, but ones treated better than the thousands of men starved, gassed, and dumped up until then. This threatened regime change, crossing "Obama's red line." But in case that didn't work, as it so happens, "Caesar" was safely out with a sort of plan B for regime-change justifying allegations of mass atrocities. Does it also show practice and planning for the Ghouta event?This is also when less signs of chemical extermination appear. Instead, most men have their eyes gouged out, no matter what alleged branch of military intelligence was holding him (see 227-2668 above, and the 8 samples below, and note they run further back, into the June folders, but no earlier).
…
After the scrambled folders, there are three final ones closing the show before "Caesar" fled. First is an undated 000 folder. I estimate that at about august 1 - a date going blank makes sense here, and the numbers make sense. No span clear with just one H# found, only via Channel 4 recently, but with 143 photos included, it must cover at least 143 bodies.
Then a folder called 6-2013 contains entries picking up where 000 leaves, off and running to the final folder on 14 August. A small folder, I think this means 6 August, likely five days after last collection, 8 days before the next one. 6(-8)-2013 folder: total 62 photos, and all from branch 215 - it's a selective catch-up folder. 2 seen H#s show this folder covers a span of about 100 bodies at least, but not much wider than that.
14-8-2013 - final folder: total 126 photos, with a pretty normal division. Four seen H#s cluster around the 5,000/0 switch, illustrating a span maybe 50 bodies wide, with an unclear spread before or after. I suspect this final stretch is not much bigger than the number shared: probably 150 to maybe 200 bodies passing since last collection on the 6th. In 8 days, that's just 19-23 bodies per day.
solid sampling, unclear placement on timeline due to lack of seen H#s. Between them, at least 350 bodies, maybe 400 or more, represented by 330 photos. That would be 2 weeks to the 14th. That would only be 700/month, less than half the rate in March or July. Were the people providing that finale already winding the show back down? In the last 2 weeks before "Caesar" suddenly had to flee, just hours before the Ghouta massacre?
The Second Letter Switch and Last Bodies
The Second Letter Switch and Last Bodies
There's the switch to /b after 4999 in March, perhaps fearing 9999 would never be reached. But it was, causing another switch at the end, in the 14 August folder. The final letter(s) remain unclear - said to be the Arabic letter tha ( ث ), it looks more like nothing - maybe a lazy s (sin - س ) slurred a couple different ways, or two different letters. Here as seen with 3/? (on 215-4059) and 24/? (on 215-4071). The latter could b 124, but their 215 numbers seem too close for that - just 12 apart.
There's long been an alleged 1,000-plus bodies after this switch, for about 11,000 total. I had accepted this, but in the end, it's not clear where they're at if so. That last folder is only about 126 photos (and for the 215 part, I took extra care to dig around the end and find all the last entries, so that may be its true size). Solid sampling prevails in the folder before it, so it seems unlikely this one has some 10% coverage, wide enough to show numbers running past 1,000, while just those 2 early H numbers appear. If so, some last-minute padding is more likely than usual. "Caesar" may just make up some "add 220" entries. But usually, it doesn't seem that way, and here I still kind of doubt that.
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