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Warning: This site contains images and graphic descriptions of extreme violence and/or its effects. It's not as bad as it could be, but is meant to be shocking. Readers should be 18+ or a mature 17 or so. There is also some foul language occasionally, and potential for general upsetting of comforting conventional wisdom. Please view with discretion.
Showing posts with label massacres. Show all posts
Showing posts with label massacres. Show all posts

Friday, December 13, 2024

"Assad's Top Crimes" in Review...

...now that the likely perpetrators are suddenly in charge of all Syria's people.

December 13, 2024

(rough, incomplete)

last updates 12/15

Thoughts on the Fall of the Syrian Arab Republic

As all readers are probably aware, in recent days the longtime government of the Syrian Arab Republic has rather suddenly collapsed, allowing Idlib Islamists to somehow take every major city up to and including Damascus. Genocidal terrorists linked to Al Qaeda - supposedly reformed - now run the country. The axis of resistance to Israel has been broken, leaving Lebanon isolated as Palestine is being erased with the Gaza genocide and incoming president Trump's implied promise to let Israel annex the West Bank, besides Gaza. (He did take the money - Haaretz.com) To boot, many Palestine supporters are now distracted with celebrations and/or joining with Israel again to hate on Assad and cheer the fall of one of the staunchest state supporters of their cause.

I'm not at all happy with these developments. From 2012 to 2018 I made some quite serious (volunteer and self-directed) study of events in Syria. As I'll explain below, this work left me what many call an "Assadist." I was highly sympathetic with the government of Bashar al-Assad as it came under a foreign-backed dirty war using terrorist proxies staging false-flag massacres. The government didn't fall then, but Syria was severely injured, losing hundreds of thousands of people, and was left more carved-up than ever before; Idlib province was occupied by Al-Qaeda offshoot Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham (fka Jabhat al-Nusra) and run under strict sharia law - Syria's oil and wheat fields were occupied by the United States, on the notion that giving local Kurds autonomy from Syria while stealing Syria's oil and wheat was the only way to "stop ISIS" - the US under Trump illegally recognized Syria's illegal occupation of Syria's Golan Heights; it was Israel's sovereign territory according to the then-and-now boss of the world. 

Finally, the US congress imposed crippling economic sanctions on Syria in the name of "protecting civilians" there by preventing the country from rebuilding until the Assad government was deposed. Once Al Qaeda is in charge, ok, you can rebuild and have your lives back. Well, not quite the same lives, but ...

It was all fine to most people, considering how insanely evil the Assad regime was, butchering whole families, gassing villages and more in a desperate bid to crush or kill all the country's Sunni Muslim majority, starting with the most innocent. But this preposterous alleged plan would achieve nothing but sowing seeds of revenge, fueling the Sunni extremist insurgency. And as far as I can tell, opposition militants seem to have provided their own fuel here, in probably every single atrocious instance. 

Consider an incident from the Douma-Harasta area (unclear exactly) in August 2012 (All details here: https://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Douma_Hostage_Massacre) A Musab bin Omar Battalion, part of a Capitol Shield Brigade (app. Muslim Brotherhood connected, allied with Liwa/Jaish al-Islam at least) had 16 men captured after an "attack on one of the centers of Shabiha and the gangs of Assad" and perhaps also a police station. Here are the notorious killers waiting an unspecified justice, giving their names and ranks on prompt. 


They won't be allowed to signal to their families or reveal their location or any secrets they've witnessed, but I can almost see #5 Hassan Ismail saying with his pose "look at this distinctive Coca-Cola shirt they gave me. Remember it." These are all supposedly military men, captured on-base and presumably in uniform. If so, it's unclear why someone went to hassle of re-dressing them all in these distinctive civilian clothes. Seriously, why? 

Well, some grisly activist videos (since deleted) posted soon thereafter showed - by clothing and other matches - at least 6 of these same men (those w/red Xs above), dead with throats cut, on video as 16 (revised to just 12) local civilians kidnapped - in their civilian clothes there - and killed BY "Assad's forces." Assad's gangs would have to pay for this crime, would hopefully be captured alive, killed and rebranded like this, revenged again, and so on. 

I start with this example because it's basically undeniable. The story was given credence even in a few mainstream media outlets (Tracey Shelton in Salon), and cannot really be challenged except with nonsense like this "trial by word salad." Credit for the original find on this story goes to German OSINT sleuth "Ursula Behr" who caught it right off in 2012, and had Syrian media pick it up from her. More an "Assadist" than I could ever be, she would later travel to Syria as she was dying of cancer, had her paintings put on display, and then passed away. She was buried in Syria at her request, and now she's still there even after Assad has left.

They actually did this kind of shit, and I think it was done widely all during the Dirty War. In fact, it can be essentially proven like this in a great many cases. The vilest acts may have all been done not by the government (actually elected, FWIW) that had to live in and govern Syria, but in a false-flag manner by the foreign-backed, takfiri terrorists; they were always the agents of chaos, working on this multinational program to break down, carve up, and consume Syria, as seems to be happening now. 

This seems like a rather evil but likely a winning strategy, if allowed to play out very long. The government had to give up on Douma by October, 2012; it was "liberated" like all of Syria now is, with Liwa al-Islam left in general control. That "liberation" and this particular Capitol Shield Brigade ended long ago after fighting half the world tried to complicate. But as far as I know, some of these same guys kept rolling with different groups to this day, and now help govern all of Syria and all of its people.  

I'll try to catch up some on the details of the fall, what transpired, how things evolve from here, and on emerging "proofs" of "Al-Assad's brutal rule" that are now being "discovered." (A Closer Look On Syria has been keeping some track, so I'll be starting there) I'm still open to the idea some of it might even be true, but I'll have to compare to the reality-based picture I have so far, which the reader can start to form from reading or just skimming this post.

There's been widespread celebration of the "new Syria" because, compared to the well-known crimes of the Assad regime, especially since the rebellion began in the "Arab Spring" of 2011, almost anything is seen as better. An endless river of accusation was almost universally accepted by hostile, Western governments, by other openly hostile forces, and even by ostensibly neutral and trustworthy agencies like human rights groups and bodies of the United Nations, the mass media and the general public (with some leading and some just led). Nonetheless, the best evidence suggests these agencies, the public and everyone got the story wrong, sometimes on purpose.

Here I'll try for a brief overview of several classes of alleged crimes of the "Assad regime":

* shooting protesters

* torturing and killing kids

* sectarian massacres

* bombardment massacres

* chemical attacks

* prisoner abuse and extermination

Each section is illustrated with select details from select cases, almost off the top of my head but with some needed review. I give a few links to scattered work, mainly at this blog. (at the links are piles of text often summarizing other piles), with hundreds of individual, primary citations I'm not going to recreate here. I'm not just "citing myself" with these links, just sticking to the stuff I can vouch for and locate easily. 

The cited work was done collaborating with others who bring their own expertise and knowledge in open-source research. We consider all available evidence, emphasizing the best primary source evidence (the visual record, the accounts of witnesses, especially ones conforming with and not contradictions the visual record, direct documentation of related government orders, etc.) not just to poke holes in the official narrative, but to discover, as possible, what actually did happen, we map out events in time and space, parse available reports and read between the lines for what isn't said, what doesn't make sense, etc. with often astonishing results, even as they're often incomplete, over-filled and under-edited. 

There are a lot of the great work by others out there (a few cited here), but the quality of the core information is mixed, and I didn't want to go digging. And I never personally absorbed all the brilliance at ACLOS and in comments here, and by now I've grown rusty on much of what I did. So this won't be adequate, but maybe close enough to be of some help. Some adds and improvements are likely.

why bother?

Why bother now that there's no sitting "Assad regime" to defend, or to cut me an imaginary paycheck, just a new government to raise the alarm about? I guess it's for the latter reason. We should probably be aware if evil and lies have won on such a grand scale in Syria, even if the new government doesn't start exterminating all the Alawites or mass-executing all loyalists of the deposed regime. Is it possible HTS have changed and wind up being cool, allowing open elections and so on? Even sticking up for the Palestinians? If there's a next time, a next country, maybe this kind of outcome should be avoided? Is there any way of fighting this, turning back the new status quo, maybe with mass civil disobedience by the betrayed Syrian people that ISN'T met with mass head-chopping, to topple this terrorist regime ASAP? 

I don't know. What do we do with this information now? It's just what I have and where we are. And still, it seems to me, too few people know these stories.

So FWIW, here's a review of what - as far as I can tell - happened last time, what all this unfinished business truly was and remains. I present a very dark vision of events no one needs to accept in full, but this is how I see what Syrian officials described in a top-secret document as "circumstances we are better off without." This is the hell Syrians won't want to go through again. This may be why some people there might agree to a quick surrender, as may have just happened, when faced with a new and maybe final round of the Dirty War.

More reading (Optional) in some external articles, here at Monitor on Massacre Marketing (cited as "Monitor" below), at the wiki I helped start A Closer Look On Syria (ACLOS) - and in some work with the Working Group on Syria, Propaganda, and Media (WGSPM) alongside Dr. Piers Robinson and other professional-level academic types (because I am one?), besides co-founding a now-defunct Citizen's Investigation Into War Crimes in Libya (and Syria, Ukraine, and Beyond) (CIWCL-SUB) with Petri Krohn, and some valuable informal collaborations, especially with Michael Kobs. Relevant posts at this blog: Syria Masterlist, last updated 2017:  I may update this, but other than quite a bit on the 2018 Douma chemical attack, I didn't add very much, so that plus Douma masterlist (and, since that's not complete either, tagged posts) could keep you reading almost forever. 

More than reading, (which is often a chore, sorry), this stuff should be saved in several places by people who care. I do and oversee brilliant work that's worth preserving, but I sometimes lose it and, in the current climate, it could even be made illegal or otherwise made to vanish. So things you can do with the info presented and linked below: read, skim, copy, paste, save, read other stuff & compare, double-check, improve, re-publish, add your own thoughts and your own magic.

Running Under it All: the "Assad Files"

I'll start with the "Assad Files" - some million pages of top-secret government documents seized by militants all across Syria. Not all of it is relevant, but the files are said by their curators to provide the best case for war crimes since Nuremberg. I had a pretty obsessive look at all the actual documents that were publicized - presumably selected as good examples - besides what people were saying about them. A good lot of rambling consideration, with links to original sources and quite a few interesting direct quotes: Assad Files masterlist - tagged posts.  

My strong impression is that these files are genuine and provide an accurate view of government response to a crisis gripping their country. However, as far as I've seen, the Assad Files reveal no clearly criminal orders, despite the public branding, and certainly nothing close support for the kind of atrocities widely alleged. A 2019 post considers a large sample of files (3,470 relevant pages) examined by SJAC ("Syrian Justice and Accountability Center") that apparently revealed no seriously criminal orders, and none has emerged anywhere else I've seen. This actually suggests, but far from proves, that no such orders were ever issued by Syrian authorities, probably because all of the most heinous crimes of the Dirty War were committed by the foreign-backed opposition militants.

As such, it will be interesting to compare these files with the documents likely to be "discovered" by the new government all across Syria and provided as proof of all the alleged crimes the real "Assad Files" somehow never mentioned. 

I penned one external article at 21st Century Wire: "Revolution Unraveled: ‘Assad Files’ Now an Achilles’ Heel for War Crimes Narrative" to explain how the "linchpin" of the case against Assad lodged by the CIJA ("Committee for International Justice and Accountability") was a seized document outlining a new "Crisis Management Cell" in August, 2011. The purpose of this was said to be targetting “protest organizers” and “those who tarnish the image of Syria in foreign media” for arrest, apparently just on those grounds, with no mention of what they planned to do about all the armed militants. However, a full copy of the document was shown to El Pais, and it revealed the real targets were actually those “wanted for the crimes of vandalism, killing, and assault on citizens and their properties and the government institutions,” as happened on a grand scale in Hama just a few days earlier. 

Among those violent people, they wanted “especially those” who were also involved in inciting or funding “demonstrations.” But as another document in the El País video shows, they were concerned with a type of "demonstrations" that involved “funding and armaments” whose origin they were curious about. I checked and there seems to be a real translation issue here. They don't use the usual word for protests: المظاهرات (almuzaharat) but rather التظاهرات (altazahurat) which Google Translate also turns to "demonstration" but with alternates readings: feint, simulation, pretense, or just "events" (from the base article here). I guess it's just a term the Syrian military used for this special kind of event, involving a "pretense" at protest along with real guns, that might have no single accurate translation. But we can see a few examples in the next section to get an idea.

An SJAC study of the files found document discussing Syrian troops detaining "family members to encourage suspects to turn themselves in." This is a pretty serious offense, but no details are given aside from this being one of several actions "soldiers were to cease" after deciding to do them, apparently, on their own. So there was no order found to kidnap innocent people, just the admission that it has happened, and the order to stop doing it.  Monitor on Massacre Marketing: A Clearer View on the "Assad Files" 

The Assad Files were used in the Marie Colvin case in 2019 to show command and control, who would be in charge of her killing, if the government had ordered it as alleged. There was no evidence that happened actually found anywhere in the files, suggesting it never happened, but some defector claims he witnessed the orders coming from the top and that was taken as good enough to consult the files for "who was at the top." (Monitor)

This all the CIJA and their ilk can do - show papers referring to officers and arrests and prisoners, then insert stories they were told, found no support for, and used anyway. As often as possible, they also cut to the visual proof of the "Casear photos." It's only the words of Caesar, other defectors and possibly unreliable witnesses that really link the photos and documents to alleged regime crimes. The documents themselves seem to provide little aside from black-and-white fluff to rest these dubious claims upon. More illustrations of this can be found below, as the Assad files come up by subject. The photos certainly add some terrible color. We'll consider these below, as the final topic.

2011: Shooting Protesters  

From March 2011 breathless reports spread far & wide claimed Assad's forces, Hezbollah, or others were shooting and killing peaceful protesters, as well as police, and regular citizens. Others report seeing shooting from the protester side, from rooftops and minarets, etc. as the government claimed. The top secret "Assad files" revealing the regime's orders should help clear this up.

A post half-done in 2021, and simply posted like that just the other day, looked at a publicized overview of several documents published by "Center for Justice and Accountability" (CJA and yes, that's a third cited group covering these files with "Justice and Accountability" in their name). As it happens, they found no orders to shoot and kill protesters, only reiterations not to shoot except in self-defense against armed gangs. 

An April 20, 2011 document referred to "Multi-faceted confrontation of demonstrators, saboteurs of security and vandals" - is that the full definition of "demonstrations"? Instructions on dealing with them include "Counter with weapons those who carry weapons against the state, while ensuring that civilians are not harmed." (v3 p104) Maybe that was code for "you know, do the opposite." August 19, 2011: "Ensure that no drop of blood is shed when confronting and dispersing peaceful demonstrations." (19/08/11 v1 p163) "Ensure that all elements hide their personal weapons, do not show it and do not shoot under any circumstances, except in extreme cases of self-defense. Make sure they use reason, wisdom, prudence and absorb and deal with the sedition in a way that preserves the prestige of the state. (30/03/11) Or maybe they meant "squander the prestige of the state on mindless killings, especially of the national majority group."

Sniper shootings of protesters, widely blamed on secret regime and Hezbollah elements, are acknowledged, with orders to stop and apprehend any of these snipers, if possible. In Hama, they reported May 6, 2011 "An unidentified sniper[sniped] on the rooftop of Mounekh mosque and another on the rooftop of a house off Umar Ibn Khattab Mosque shot demonstrators, killing one and injuring 43." (06/05/11 v3 p233) 04/05/11 Branch: Deir ez-Zor: "Our elements will keep on covering of our branch sector and will spread on the roofs of the building to stop the saboteurs from shooting the protestors. We are keen on tracking down those who incite others to demonstrate and carry out acts of rioting." v2 p95

When shooting deaths following a clash in Izraa on April 22, 2011, started by "an infiltrated entity" firing on security forces but with civilians somehow also killed, it was described as "a difficult day ... pushing us into circumstances we are better off without. If the directives previously issued had been adhered to we would have prevented bloodshed, and matters would not have come to this culmination." Indeed, 2 days earlier, they reminded everyone "ensuiring that civilians are not harmed" was a top priority. Recommended actions now included "Focusing on arresting inciters, especially those shooting at demonstrators (snipers or infiltrators)" and that "a sniper, inciter or infiltrator be presented to the public in a manner that convinced them, and earns their trust."

In June, 2011, some 120 Syrian soldiers were killed in Jisr al-Shughour, reportedly by their commanding officers and/or their Hezbollah bosses, when they refused to shoot at some peaceful Sunni protesters. (ACLOS). But it's also said they were killed, after their ammunition ran out and they became incapable of shooting, by a Turkish-backed local unit of a Free Officer's Movement (precursor to the FSA) that fled back to Turkey afterwards. In fact, the group's commander Hussein Harmoush bragged there of beheading all the Alawite soldiers to his (Alawite) Turkish MIT handler Önder Sığırcıkoğlu, who was so disgusted he had Harmoush smuggled back to Syria to appear on state TV and presumably face execution. For this act of treason against the Turkish state,  Sığırcıkoğlu was publicly tried and imprisoned, then broken out by some capable admirers, and remained in hiding last I heard. (see here) So yeah ... the proto-FSA butchered those soldiers, not commanding officers, Hezbollah, or any other Shi'ite boogeymen. 

Assad Files: did the regime forces order protesters killed or massacre their own? No mention of such an order or event. Behind closed doors, they only say the same thing they told world, to widespread yawns; foreign-backed terrorists were butchering their boys, besides massively lying about it. At Jisr al Shughour, they said in secret, a first mass grave with 12 soldiers was found, "killed by the armed gangs after their ammunition ran out ... their bodies had been desecrated and their heads and limbs cut off." 

That was June, 2011, not 3 months into the "peaceful" uprising, just as army defectors like Harmoush were moving to finally "offer the protesters some protection." It went downhill from there as the FSA then Jabhat al-Nusra and others, then ISIS swelled, partly on the back of sectarian lies like those about the Jisr al-Shughour Massacre of dissenting soldiers. 

2011: Torturing and Killing Kids

Assad files: SJAC's sample of 3,470 pages includes reference to 6 children detained (presumably all teenagers, but ages not given). Two were taken in for insulting Assad, and one for being in a protest - arrests we could well question - while the other 3 teenagers (b. 1997-1999) were arrested in 2014 for more militant crimes (training to shoot, joining in attacks, filming attacks, suspicious surveillance of pro-government civilians, etc.). There was no mention of any of them being tortured or killed in custody or of any remotely related order. 

There's also reference to one boy killed in Deir Ezzour, not in custody but in clashes, quite likely after his training as an opposition child soldier was not interrupted early, as with those other 3. Maybe some of these bemoaned arrests wound up saving the detainee's life. 

Back on April 29, 2011, dozens of men and 3 boys (age 12, 15, 17) were allegedly detained from a mobile protest near Saida, Hama, after security forces opened fire on them for no reason. Some 50 were reported killed in a "Saida massacre," some on that day and others allegedly killed under torture in regime detention. 12-year-old Hamza Al-Khatib is the most famous of these, with a detailed story of how he was held and tortured for nearly a month, beaten and shackled, bizarrely bloated up with fluids and finally castrated before he was shot dead. The government, in contrast, claimed Hamza's body was found after the shooting on 4/29, somehow left naked and unidentified, and was held in refrigeration ever since. 

report: lost then found but needing reposted - overview post here: https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2016/04/re-considering-hamza-al-khatib-and.html

Hamza's body was released to his family on May 25, having allegedly been killed that same day. But what some call bruises and torture-related bloating on his body are clearly signs of decay, probably equating to a month in refrigeration, like the government said. Several other late-released bodies show the same kind of decay, starting with a green spot on the belly and spreading to darken the whole body in the latest case. This all suggests the "Saida massacre" was a one-day event that remains quite murky. Whatever happened to Hamza's penis (unclear/disputed) was probably done before the government found the body. Other bodies show various signs of torture as well; 15-year-old Thamer had a mangled face as if hit with a claw hammer, before he even went in the fridge and had his belly slowly shift yellow-green and his wounds black. He was also reportedly "bludgeoned" in the genitals (Amnesty). An older man, Mahmoud al-Zoubi, was found to have died from a heart attack resulting from "torture," also prior to his appearing naked after the shooting. His face would also appear as one of the earliest entries in the "Caesar photos" of unidentified bodies (see below) - perhaps a telling inclusion (Monitor).

2012: Sectarian Massacres

From the beginning, more heavily in 2012, and rarely after that, Syrian forces were accused of grisly massacres of civilians along sectarian lines, in literally hundreds of cases, each killing a few to over 100 civilians. With Syrian military support, as the story tended to go, Alawite "Shabiha" death squads would murder entire Sunni Muslim families based on religion alone. 

Assad Files: no orders to carry out such massacre has ever been mentioned. Instead, they say things like "We should not turn any of our fellow citizens into enemies" because, as put elsewhere, "We are all in the same boat," a boat called Syria.  https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-clearer-view-on-assad-files.html

SJAC found nothing about sectarian tensions in the files except, I presume, many orders to avoid it, which SJAC ignored, and one hybrid case where a government policy led to deadly tensions until another policy corrected that trend they considered negative.Security forces had decided to use knowledgeable, largely Alawite locals to identify people (mainly Sunni) for arrest, leading to revenge kidnappings and maybe counter-kidnappings until "reciprocal sectarian kidnappings and killings peaked in Homs" in a crisis the government wanted resolved. So they decided "The use of civilians at some checkpoints to openly select targets" was to be banned. Authorities were urged instead to "use covert security methods that do not incite hatred and tension among the citizens." 

So, again, even in secret, Syrian officials can only be seen working to lessen tensions and minimize the chance for strife, which other parties were working to instill in Syria in those days. "Christians to Beirut, Alawites to the Grave" was a popular chant at anti-Assad rallies in these days. 

But somewhere even more secret, they must have decided to make most Syrians their enemies and to try and kill them all, in barbaric and shocking way when possible, judging by the widely-accepted narrative of, for example, the infamous Houla Massacre of May 25, 2012. ACLOS page linking to a number of detailed sub-pages. I had 2 PDF reports posted to my old CIWCL page that I let expire - with CE's helps, now reposted at ACLOS: 

Alleged: 108 Sunnis killed at random, including a few opposition fighters but mainly whole families of civilians, including 49 children. (However, a list made from other lists correlated has 9 opposition fighters killed besides 112 civilians, including 64 children.) They were killed, as reported, by army shelling and home invasion massacres by Alawite "Shabiha," in the "liberated" and 100% Sunni "town" of Al-Houla, after the small FSA force had fled, hoping their absence could ease the shelling. Instead, they say, the FSA absence allowed another Shabiha massacre, by Alawite butchers recruited from nearby villages. 

In fact, the massacre happened in Taldou, the last part of the Houla region still secured by the government as of May 25, when reinforced local Islamists attacked and took or circumvented at least some - and probably all - the town's security posts, killing several soldiers. Despite their efforts to conceal this truth, careful analysis of the opposition-supplied videos shows rebels taking over on that day, engaging in clashes inside the once-secured area. Security scene map:

The water co. post (lower right, on a hill overlooking the town) was never overrun, but attacked, pinned-down and circumvented. Best evidence has all other security posts taken: UN investigation even agrees on the roundabout post ("overrun," allowing potential terrorist access to the bulk of victims on Saad rd.) and MIHQ ("likely overrun), in their likely pre-planned offensive that day. The investigators didn't seem to care the arches post was just a truck that wouldn't stop anyone for long, and didn't notice that the national hospital seems to be on fire and belching smoke by sunset, when it was reportedly overrun along with the army post there, and then set on fire. Army snipers at the hospital were the UN's main basis for ruling out a rebel massacre on Saad Road - the snipers would've stopped that. But those guys were likely killed, so ... yeah. And there was a massacre there by someone just then.   

The massacre happened in these newly liberated areas, on Saad road and Main Street, immediately after the liberation. The witnesses who correctly describe "the battle for the Houla Massacre" say the victors killed - in a very targeted way - Sunnis who converted to Shi'ism (Abdulrazaq families, the bulk of those killed) and Sunnis who supported the government (2 families named Al-Sayed). The family butchers came in after the FSA, these witnesses said, like their upside-down version of "Shabiha," wearing black, and suspected of being with Al Qaeda (Jabhat al-Nusra was either unformed or little-known at the time). Children had their heads sliced open, their jaws torn off, and more. 

An "Alawite family Shomaliya" also reported killed in the Houla massacre was apparently a confused reference to a next-day massacre in the not-so-close Alawite village al-Shumariyeh. Syrian state TV did show some grisly scenes of at least one family executed in their living room, presumably in that village. Shumariyeh Massacre - A Closer Look On Syria

So many I've looked into, I'm skipping a lot. Just to give an idea of the scale, my post on Homs Massacres, 2011-2013 has numerous shady stories compiled, with no summary here, just from Syria's #3 city Homs. https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/06/syria-homs-massacres.html

Al-Bayda and Baniyas massacres of Sunnis, May 2013: With the later, massive and grisly Banyas massacre being far murkier, I've focused on the all-Sunni village of Al-Bayda, where there's also more information to work with (the opposition seemingly wanted us to focus on this one and let it shape our idea of Baniyas, which happened in a district of the Sunni-majority city that's unusually mixed = possible massacre of Alawites or other minorities). Some 70+ civilians were killed on May 2 in Al-Bayda just for being Sunni, following a "Shabiha" raid in response to a fatal rebel attack on other "Shabiha" in the pre-dawn hours. 

Or, as some videos might show, the killing happened hours before that raid, in the same pre-dawn dark when local Islamists were killing security forces in the town. So who was killing local civilians at that same time? Most or perhaps all of those killed were relatives of a Sunni imam - sheikh Omar Biassi - who happened to be a prominent supporter of the government and a critic of the armed rebellion. (36 victims shared his name, and many others come from intermarried families)Rebels said one of his female relatives who was pregnant was sliced open by the "Shabiha" and her fetus was separately executed. It sounds far-fetched, like the false claims leveled by some Israelis against Hamas fighters, but they did show a photo of an executed, underdeveloped fetus. And one of their pre-dawn videos shows several executed women and children opposition people had discovered, including a seemingly pregnant woman but fully clothed and apparently not yet butchered. Is that the same woman? If so, who sliced her belly open after rebels had access to her body? https://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Al-Bayda_Massacre

Somehow the opposition's Al-Bayda massacre story remains widely accepted, even though the victim targeting raised a few eyebrows (as it failed to do with Houla & others), and even though this sectarian Shabiha massacre narrative was already falling apart and out of fashion by then. People realized that opposition Islamist fighters could -potentially - carry out massacres like these, using guns and blades close up, and somehow, that idea actually took root. At the end of 2012 and early 2013, three massacres blamed on Assad were met with skepticism even from opposition activist and mainstream Western media. 

UK Channel 4, ITV News and BBC News actually spoke with local witnesses, besides hearing phoned-in activist reports, for the massacre of perhaps over 200 Alawites in Aqrab on December 10 and of ~100 Sunnis in Haswiyeh in January. The locals blamed rebels, Al-Nusra Front specifically, and it was not laughed off. Supporting evidence appears in each video report. In between these, a reported massacre in Ma'an around December 25 was pre-questioned by the opposition SOHR, who had worried publicly the Islamist rebels about to seize the Alawite village Ma'an might commit a massacre there. They did take Ma'an and claimed to just find 23 people killed, they say all of the local Sunni minority killed and left behind by retreating Shabiha, but left charred and unrecognizable, with some beheaded. I suspect that those were either Alawites or Sunnis killed for happily living alongside Alawites. Aqrab Massacre - A Closer Look On Syria - Haswiyeh Massacre - A Closer Look On Syria - Maan Massacre - A Closer Look On Syria

After all this growing skepticism regarding these family-slaughtering massacres that could have been by the genocidal terrorists known to be stalking Syria, Assad allegedly decided to start massacring Sunnis in less confusing methods that only his military could manage - missiles and barrel bombs from jets and helicopters rebels lacked, scud missiles that rebels had only seized a few of, and then chemical weapons they presumably couldn't have.

Bombardment Massacres

Just 2 quick examples of cases that didn't turn out so good, not that anyone much noticed or cared:

Khalidiya, Homs, Feb. 2012: some 200 locals killed, with a core of 138 from regime shelling that flattened homes, killing entire families of men, women and children, leading president Obama and others to call for Assad to step down. Other locals reported the victims seen on video were their relatives, including Christians, who were kidnapped by the terrorists enjoying free reign in Homs after the army was compelled to withdraw; the terrorists killed them by "dynamiting" or perhaps shelling a place they were held. Opposition sources said differently, but listed the core 138 victims, the families killed in shelling, as 100% male and nearly all adult by Islamist standards (age 13+). These aren't families. The segregated male hostages, it seems, were in the place someone blew up to get Assad in trouble while killing some religious enemies of the Sunni extremist insurgents. (ACLOS)

Douma market attack, 2015: some 112 civilians were reportedly killed at the open market in a regime jet attack, punishing them for their undying support for the Saudi-backed Jaish al-Islam. However, all 4 "jet strikes" look like artillery strikes from the south, and all fit in a perfect arc wrapping around a spot 800m to the south. As for the punishment part ... the locals had protested Jaysh al-Islam, compelling them to leave the area, maybe to the south. At least 100 of the 112 or so reported victims were listed as adult males, video analysis reveals at least some of them were killed before the alleged jet attack even occurred, and at least 95 of them went unclaimed and were interred in a mass grave. All this suggests the bulk of victims were, again, controlled and gender-segregated prisoners, executed on demand to flesh out yet another alleged regime crime. http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/08/douma-market-attack-masterlist.html

2013-2018: Chemical Attacks

Assad also turned, allegedly, to chemical weapons the rebels supposedly didn't or couldn't have, at least not in the reported quantities ... or so people hoped, assumed, and insisted. He still tried to blame the rebels, but it didn't work very well, and so Bashar al-Assad stands accused of all these incidents considered below and more, some of them killing his own soldiers. There's far too much found, by myself and others I work with, to cover here even in passing, so a fast and partial review is in order. 

The Assad Files of course reveal no orders related to the use chemical weapons. One passage taken as a coded hint was a mention, on February 8, 2012, We received information stating that the Libyan terrorists have acquired chemical weapons from the Libyan chemical arsenal. The weapons will be shipped to Turkish territories to be used later in some Syrian governorates, especially the ones that are facing unrest. This will be done in order to accuse the regime, in coordination with biased television channels, of using the chemical weapons, in order to escalate the Syrian crisis and internationalize it after all the failed attempts to move the Syrian crisis dossier to the Security Council. File:Assad Files 2-2-2012.jpg - A Closer Look On Syria

Some early, vague allegations of regime CW use in Baba Amr, Homs, followed on or by February 21. (Monitor)  Otherwise, there were no such incidents until late 2012. Obama's red line threat/offer stated that if Assad used, or seems to have used chemical weapons, the US might decide to intervene militarily to aid the opposition. I missed it when he first said this on August 20, 2012, and it didn't seem to spark anything at the time. But when he repeated it on December 3, I noticed, and started watching for the false claims or false-flag attacks he had just invited. 

Three days later, on Dec. 6, the first reports came in, as I noted at ACLOS - vague reports of regime gas use in Daraya, with no details and no clear word on casualties. The first reported deaths were on December 22 - seven soldiers in the Syrian army who had cornered some terrorists in that same Daraya. Details are sparse, but the gas was reportedly yellow, just like the sarin used in all the attacks to follow. (ACLOS)

On March 19, 2013, Syrian troops and civilians in the reclaimed Shi'ite village of Khan al-Assal, Aleppo, were affected by a chemical attack reported to use sarin (yellow, reported by some as chlorine), killing some 20 people, including a treating physician. (Monitor) Syria demanded a probe, which was stalled for 5 months  by Western governments, adding invasive demands and other alleged attacks by the government,  (Monitor) before UN-OPCW investigators ("inspectors") finally arrived in Syria on August 18, ready to analyze that terrorist sarin attack. 

But before they could leave Damascus, in the early hours of August 21, a massive chemical attack happened nearby, in Eastern and Western Ghouta, killing hundreds of civilians (reportedly 1,429, and by visuals it was at least 400, probably 500+ and perhaps as many as claimed). It's reported that over 400 of the dead were children. This deadliest chemical attack since Halabja obviously distracted the investigators from the planned probe of Khan al-Assal attack. Instead, investigators visited both Moadamiya (next to Daraya, in W. Ghouta) and Zamalka / Ain Tarma in E. Ghouta, inspected 5 impact points, collected many samples, interviewed supposed witnesses, and took biological samples, all under guard of local Islamist forces, and sometimes under fire from mysterious snipers.

Skipping some interesting anomalies in what was found, the UN and/or OPCW somehow used a single and grossly wrong rocket bearing from E. Ghouta (where there were reportedly 12 impacts), paired with an untested reading from W. Ghouta, in their initial report. Combined with ignorance of the weapons' effective range, these incorrect bearings allowed many (Human Rights Watch for one) to point to a Syrian military base, falsely implicating the Syrian military within a few weeks. Later work I was involved in (overview post with links to 2 reports, our discussion with Aaron Mate on Push Back) explains that error and correctly reads more than 7 rocket impacts for trajectories, finding that they intersect 2km out in a small area in Jobar that includes a field matching the one seen a video of Islamist fighters launching the same kind of rockets (3 firings seen) in what would be the same directions, on what they say is August 21 (and it's dark), and this field seems to have new, consistent scorching by a satellite view taken 2 days later. So, strange as it sounds, that video seems to depict the Ghouta attack, by apparent Islamists, in a spot the Syrian military could hardly access. 

I found 2 more sites later, but with no clear direction clues. It's pretty clear the 12 rockets reported were all fired then. The 3 sites the UN-OPCW visited in E. Ghouta all tested sarin. Most likely but not surely, 12 sarin rockets impacted, almost surely killing a good number of people, even in this semi-rural and war-depopulated area. However, as the late Denis O'Brien (PhD, neuropharmacology) explained, first in an open letter to congress and then in an e-book Murder in the SunMorgue, the hundreds of seen victims overwhelmingly fail to display the signs expected for sarin fatalities (like cyanosis and the SLUDGE syndrome). This remains a bit subjective, but suggests a different toxin was used. I have also noticed the clinical signs varied from one location to the next, which is also subjective but would indicate different toxins (plural) were used in different areas. 

Could it be, like the bombardment massacres mentioned above, that controlled prisoners were killed for this event? 

There were some 200 women and children taken captive a few weeks earlier in rural Latakia, after their men over 13 were openly executed by fighters in a grand Islamist coalition involving Jabhat al-Nusra and literal ISIS, among others. The victims of the Ghouta massacre were not culled from among these, as many have claimed. That would mean they were gassed in or near Latakia, whereas a few batches totaling over 300 bodies have been geolocated to certain spots in E. Ghouta. (Monitor). Still, I collected some signs that the victims were prisoners, includes how, as O'Brien noted, one gassing survivor in Kafr Batna was finished off with some kind of throat injury. (Monitor) (later note: his face was initially covered with a cloth to help see if his breathing increased. It apparently did, and then the cloth covered his bleeding neck). As noted in the first link above, one boy seen alive in Irbeen would later be seen dead, with new freckles on his face and a nosebleed, both being signs of death by manual strangulation.

Hardly any bodies were shown where they fell - in homes, in the streets, or anything. Some people are seen arriving at the Kafr Batna "clinic," but they're not the ones seen dead there. Just one family of 8 or 9 was shown dead in a vacant building. But they appear executed with weapons, judging by decay, a couple days before the Ghouta attack. And their lack of shoes plus winter coats on the women - in August - suggest they were held prisoner by Islamists before someone executed them in this vacant building. (Monitor) Otherwise, it could be we don't see where the people died because those were terrorist gas chambers we weren't meant to see. But they might've slipped and let us see the one in Kafr Batna (as noted by O'Brien, same link as above) and maybe in Irbeen. (See also William Van Wagenen "Sarin doesn't slice throats"

But the official bodies had the wrong rocket bearing and whatever other reasons, be it evidentiary or just political, to blame Damascus, and this had follow-on effects. Having analyzed sarin found at the site of these terrorist rocket strikes in Ghouta, and having decided it was regime sarin, the UN-OPCW investigators came back to finally investigate that terrorist attack at Khan al-Assal. They found that too was sarin and the formula was a match and so, sadly ... the regime must have gassed their own and just blamed terrorists, demanded a probe, then distracted the probe with their own attack using the same sarin, providing this proof all on their own, for whatever reasons. This is one of the most absurd tales ever told, and it's accepted as fact by most people, because official bodies said so, and they never cared enough to apply any skepticism.   

Three days after Ghouta, on August 24, Syria reported its troops were closing in on the area the sarin rockets were fired, some 3-400m from that spot we identified, when 2 canisters of sarin were reportedly launched at them, with one failing to detonate. 4 soldiers needed hospitalized, one of them severely affected and taking days to recover, but none were killed. The OPCW would confirm the government's blood test proving sarin exposure in the one soldier (time lapse probably explains the 3 negatives), and would later find the sarin inside the improvised canisters had the same formula as the sarin used in the Ghouta and Khan al-Assal attacks. Alleged Chemical Attack, August 24, 2013 - A Closer Look On Syria

So the regime must've kept on gassing their own troops. This was just one of three CW attacks on Syrian troops in the days after the Ghouta attack. One of them in deep E. Ghouta on the 22nd was found to be something milder than sarin and that seemed likely enough to me on review. The third attack on August 24 was next to Daraya. Symptoms and initial blood tests indicated sarin, but with the time elapsed before OPCW analysis, they couldn't confirm the exposure. (UN report) There's no word on the exact formula, but it's most likely the same as used in all the other attacks running back to December. 

The same formula sarin would be confirmed in, at least, 3 other sarin incidents over the years:

Saraqeb, 4/29/13 in a special hand grenade otherwise associated with Jabhat al-Nusra, but dropped from a regime helicopter by Assad's forces, killing one woman.  (ACLOShttps://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/10/saraqeb-sarin-incident-magic-grenades.html

Lataminah, March 2017: in at least one or another of a few attacks (one seemingly invented after-the-fact), the same formula of sarin was reportedly dispersed by a M-4000 bomb from a passing Syrian jet. The evidence is all messed up. I'm behind on it and there may be a review project I'll help prompt by failing to go into detail here.

Khan Sheikhoun, April 4 2017, the same sarin would be delivered, also reportedly by a M-4000 bomb, hardly any of which was produced (a bit more detail below).  

The four known weapons used to deliver "government-stockpile" sarin in 2013 are each interesting, and especially put together like this.

In between these sarin attacks was a long pause between 2014 and 2017. After the massive Ghouta gambit failed to get him attacked by the US, and as Assad agreed to give up his chemical program, he allegedly stopped trying with Obama, and acted like a man with no more sarin program. He waited to test his secret sarin with the next president instead, biding his time between with lower-fatality chlorine attacks, as if just to keep the issue alive until 2017. 

These include an attack in Sarmin, March 2015, where a bizarre binary chlorine barrel bomb was said, implausibly, to fall down the air vent of an unfinished house, killing a family of 6 living in the basement. 3 children are seen dead or dying, with no eye redness from the alleged hours of chlorine exposure, and symptoms of paralysis and suppressed breathing more suggestive of an overdose with an opiate or CNS depressant. The infant boy at least is seen alive, managing one yawn-like breath on video, before the Islamist attending surgeon stabs him in the chest with a likely adrenaline syringe, but never injects anything or offers any other CP support. Instead, he twirls the huge needle around in the infant's chest, removes it with the plunger in the same position, and then lets him die ... from "Assad's chlorine barrel bomb attack" as reported. 

White Helmets Movie: Updated Evidence From Swedish Doctors Confirm Fake ‘Lifesaving’ and Malpractices on Children – The Indicter

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/04/what-killed-talebs.html

That was one of the first appearances of the White Helmets, jointly documenting that grisly scene with the local chapter of the Al-Qaeda offshoot JAN/JFS/HTS. They would work together on most of the other alleged CW attacks listed below.

Then, almost as soon as president trump took office, 2017 saw new sarin attack reports. An alleged attack on Khan Sheikhoun on April 4 saw some 80+ locals killed. (ACLOS)  As with Ghouta, no one is seen where they fell - they just appear pre-collected in pickup trucks or at the White Helmets' cave hospital, where the victims were just sprayed with water until they died. Among the standing questions in this case is how sources indicate there was no jet over Khan Sheikhoun at the time to even drop this sarin bomb. Underrated point: opposition stories were clear and detailed in relating a wind to the SW causing deaths in that direction, whereas video shows the wind blowing the exact opposite way, to the NE, including at ground level. The real direction was likely cited but read backwards (the "to" and "from" directions are easily confused), and all the stories built atop that error are basically proven fakes. (Monitor) But it sparked the first US military attacks ordered by president Trump, over no "red line" he even had to specify. Bingo. He would do the same over Douma a year later. 

There was at least one sarin attack reported in November 2017 and another in February 2018, both non-fatal and confusingly said to involve chlorine as well. The OPCW found sarin at the stie of the February attack but had to rule it a coincidence (coincidental sarin! Can you believe it?), as they saw clues for a chlorine attack but felt the 2 agents cannot be mixed and still be effective, as opposition morons reported. 

These 2 events seemed to build up to the attack in Douma on April 7, where "Assad" still hadn't learned and launched another sarin-chlorine attack. But oddly, this time he switched back to simple chlorine mid-attack as it were. On the verge of Jaish al-Islam's defeat in their home base of Douma, a regime sarin-chlorine attack was originally said to kill around 200, with the death toll strangely revised to 43. The reported sarin never turned up, although chlorine and the canisters for it did appear. The visual evidence and all open, professional analysis of it, including from but rejected by the OPCW's investigation, suggests the evidence of an aerial attack was staged; the best reading is that someone manually placed the canisters next to pre-existing damage at the 2 alleged impact sites. The 35 bodies found at one site seemed arranged there as well, following an unclear death, perhaps somewhere else.

I can add, among other points, that the Douma victims were likely relatives of a rival opposition commander, probably held prisoner in some way by the ruling Jaish al-Islam, and were likely killed by exposure to nitric acid, or something that produced it, while bound in an upside-down position, and fitted with swimming goggles for unclear reasons. Only some have yellow-then-brown staining and/or irritation on their upper faces, with exclusions in the clear shape of swimming goggle lenses and sometimes unusual securing straps (right: extracted pattern on a female victim's face). But nitric acid, like chlorine, is an irritant to the eyes, and no victims display eye redness. What else can explain death from breathing acid with no eye irritation except for goggles someone has since removed? (the chlorine that likely passed over their eyes caused no redness because that requires a heartbeat, and they were dead before they were ever laid here).

Also, initial reports that would run to around 200 killed, and later be specified as 187, remain credible. That would make it the second-deadliest chemical massacre of the Dirty War, with most simply de-listed along with the sarin, whatever exactly caused that strange story change (were the militants bringing sarin to spike the site killed by the SAAF along the way?).

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/02/regarding-how-victims-were-killed-by.html

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/04/doumas-mask-of-death-part-1.html

Some 2,000 people Jaish al-Islam held prisoner and agreed to release never did emerge from that captivity, with their fates being unclear. Likely several hundred were killed for the Ghouta chemical massacre, and some were probably used up in the last days for the Douma massacre, besides those killed and used for other events. 

And that brings us to the final point and people who allegedly died in enormous numbers inside the prisons of the "Assad regime."

Prisoner Abuse & Extermination 

Recent post-liberation finds at Sednaya prison are supposed to prove all the alleged abuses in Syria's prisons, and this news will merit some study next. Piles of bloody nooses. A body press to illustrate their repressiveness. Michael Kobs on X is covering that stuff. I'll try to catch up, but first, here's where I had left off seriously questioning all that. It's a wide subject I never tried to master, so I'll be brief until I'm less-brief.

There are many stories, quite possibly made up, swearing to a range of horrid abuses, sometimes seemingly tailored to fit the content of specific "Caesar photos" as if the verify them. However, some million pages of top-secret "Assad files" seemingly provide no supporting evidence for orders to torture, starve, neglect, abuse, kill or mass-exterminate prisoners, at least that anyone whose looked at them has mentioned. It's widely accepted as fact that this was all ordered from above, and opposition-supporting defectors claim to have seen the orders passed down all the time. And the Assad files curators make it sound like they have massive proof but, again, every time they want to show this proof, they turn to a witness claim instead of a single verified order. The documents seemingly provide little aside from black-and-white fluff to rest these other dubious claims upon. 

Assad Files: Investigators mainly found re-iterations of previous orders to care for and not abuse the prisoners. The Syrian Justice and Accountability Center (SJAC) in a report (now deleted? link is 404 - my review) had to concede "None of the pages in the sample set explicitly admitted to the use of torture, despite widespread and consistent accusations..." That's zero out of 3,470 relevant pages they had, despite all those claims of routine, horrific torture. The best the report could do was point to "a handwritten note from a detained individual who confessed to crimes and swore that he was not beaten or tortured during his arrest, raising suspicions that he may have indeed been tortured or mistreated in detention." Yeah, with some imagination, there you go - a supposed lack of torture, once specified, becomes evidence for torture that strangely lacks any straightforward evidence. 

Reference to just one death in custody was found in the SJAC sample, and they had to doubt its claims that the man died from an infection, stemming from an injury sustained during his arrest (probably shot so, in fact, likely a shooting militant). SJAC think the Youtube video shows bruising, but that was likely the fatal infection they saw, and/or the early stages of decay like the "bruising" seen with Hamza al-Khatib and the others (video date/time lapse also unclear). Anyway, no other deaths were noted, and no order to cause deaths were actually discovered. Again, despite the widespread and likely 100% fake stories.   

A memo of August 27 2013 "stresses how the detainees should not be beaten, humiliated or detained arbitrarily." It goes on to acknowledge: “Certain errors made by some Department branches were reviewed, including: (Arbitrary detention… the use of intensity, beating, and torture of detainees ….etc.), emphasizing the imperative of averting these issues.” Is that meant to be read sarcastically, or written in code? (https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/09/assad-files-2018-part-2.html)

Another passage: “It is imperative to attend to the cleanliness of the prison and all its facilities, and the hygiene and health of detainees…to preserve lives and reduce deaths which have considerably risen lately.” 

The "Caesar photos" seem to depict a very different world. These are said to show nearly 7,000 men, older boys and one woman killed systematically in Syrian detention, just from 2011 up to August, 2013, in a system feared to continue well after that. The horrific photos were smuggled out of Syria by a defector code-named "Caesar" (and not for the illogical given reason). The photos and Caesar's explanation of them, corroborated with some contradictions by other opposition-supporting defector-types, are the basis of "Caesar civilian Protection Act" of US Congress ...  any country governed by a dictator willing to do that cannot be allowed to rebuild from the US funded proxy war there, because a lot of suffering was needed, I suspect, to finally break the will of Syrians and bring down Assad. And civilian suffering is just what the act actually promised.  

The supposed military intelligence ID numbers attached to the bodies in the photos (like 215-1234), allegedly assigned upon arrest - would suggest most prisoners were systematically killed in the exact order they were arrested - assembly-line style. Their bodies come in just that sequentially and judging by the other (unidentified body?) numbers, at a rate of about 1,000 a month for at least 10 months in a row (November 2012 to August, 2013). Most of them have suffered severe malnutrition and neglect, sometimes prolonged bondage and, more sporadically, signs of torture like lash marks. 

This photo of perhaps 50 emaciated corpses, with no kind of prison uniform and mostly naked, processed at once, might be a typical day. But this and a few other unusual views allows a clear geolocation the garages area behind military hospital 601 in Damascus, where Caesar says he took all these grim photos. The fact that he includes geolocation shots for later investigations goes to suggest these were never official photos he smuggled out, but his own improvised ones. That improvisation might include elements of dishonesty to misrepresent what was happening here.

Syrian officials have been fairly quiet on these photos, but have explained they show unidentified bodies being processed, attaching numbers to photos for later retrieval of the buried body, once the family made an ID, adding that some are soldiers killed by armed gangs. But the last part is standard boilerplate and this clearly is not a complete answer, even if true. Why so many unidentified bodies and what about their horrible condition? 

In several rounds of work some years back, I saved screenshot copies of over 99% of the 6,700 ish publicized faceshots (only some 5 or so needles lost in the branch 215 haystack, and total coverage of other folders), saving them with all attached info, for a readable catalog I obsessively went over for visual, temporal, and other clues. My research suggested these ~7,000 men, boys and the one woman were definitely prisoners, but more likely held by opposition forces - maybe Liwa/Jaish al-Islam and/or their allies Jabhat al-Nusra (now known as Syria's new government?). It seems plausible that they were killed in repeated large batches and dumped for the government to find and process. I suspect they sent so many because their inside ally - the heralded hero "Caesar" - was there to help launder the bodies as prisoners of the government. He could incorporate the fictional military intelligence numbers written on the bodies onto ID cards he made up, putting them alongside the unidentified body/burial number, to make these look like known but coded prisoners set to be buried. And if it can be made into a show like that, why not make the show truly cinematic in scale?

The suspect ID numbers initially came on forehead tape that was often removed prior to morgue photos that were supposedly meant to confirm these numbers (ex: body 645 of "unknown branch" in the July 1, 2012 folder) later they would be written on the body in permanent market, sometimes in many spots, and then the numbers stayed in the photos. Did someone declare the ID tape offensive terrorist graffiti, or suspect it was for some insider to see and document? "Caesar" had a spell then (mid-August to October, 2012) where he was unable to collect photos, but somehow he came back to witness, just as the show exploded to 1,000 per month. 

Monitor on Massacre Marketing: "Caesar Photos": Timeline of Terror

There are a great many reports from alleged fellow prisoners and family members of Caesar photos victims swearing they had been arrested by the government and that they learned of their deaths in custody in great detail ... usually from some opposition-aligned friend of his who happened be there to see it all but then be released. I admit I haven't tried to review all these reports, but that's how it was with a few I did check, and I don't trust those "friends." 

A frequent general pattern that I might have an alternate explanation for: Example citizen "Fadi" is detained on a phoned-in tip, held in normal conditions with visits allowed until trial, found totally innocent (and the tip itself found suspicious?), and "Fadi" is released. Then with this record or detentions by the regime down on the record, it seems obvious what happened when he vanished a week later, arrested at some "checkpoint." Authorities won't say or don't know where he is, but a former prisoner says he saw "Fadi" at Sednaya, for example, and then he appears starved down and purple in the Caesar photos.

Assad Files: docs said by HRW and UK Channel 4 to help prove TWO photo lineups between 2 "Caesar photos" victims and 2 regime prisoners referenced in the Assad files with the same number, as if that were a special and not a common thing. I was able to show how the dates only approximately line up between the fake terrorist numbers on the Ceaser photos victims and real prisoners who died in unrelated news (indeed, different reasons were given). That's just the kind of coincidence you'd expect a case or two of in datasets of this scale. Those are probably the only two, and the rest of the cases failing to even approximately match up just go to suggest these were always two different sets of prisoners. 

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/10/assad-files-caesar-photo-line-ups.html

Assad Files: A December 2012 Circular to the Military Intelligence Department, signed by its Head, asks: “When any detainee dies in the prisons of the branches of the Department…. their status is then presented to the Head of the Department on the same day by telegram regarding the reasons for their arrest, the findings of their interrogation and the causes of death…”  Consider branch 227 and 215 - with over 80% of the dead between them - killed every prisoner, in roughly or exactly the same order they were arrested (going by what Caesar says). body rate at this time - November 2012 to August 2013, was about 1.000 per month, in a routine and total system ... and one of the guys in charge wants every one reported individually to him? Maybe. Or, is it possible ... these were always two different sets of prisoners?

I find it quite interesting how the Caesar photos run up to August, 2013. Then, on August 20, Caesar reportedly faked his own death and fled Syria with his photos, fearing he was in danger. A strange detail no one mentions but that I finally discerned from the bizarre clinical symptoms so many displayed: most of the Caesar photo victims seem to have died from exposure to a strongly caustic gas, while suspended upside-down. (Finally explained in decent detail in this post) Was someone testing chemical extermination methods for their prisoners? Just hours after Caesar fled, the Ghouta chemical attack killed x hundred app. prisoners, but now including women and children, publicly crossing Obama's red line and risking bombs on Damascus. Is that what Caesar knew to fear, suddenly, on August 20? What kind of company would he keep to receive tips like that? What would he have given in return?

Note: Only a few Ghouta victims  (some of the "Ain Tarma cemetery" ones - see here, with ugly graphic images) show clear signs of being suspended upside-down and exposed to toxic gas like the Caesar photo victims, but this same method would appear again, as noted above, with the 2018 Douma massacre, again likely captives of Liwa/Jaish al-Islam (however there is no sign of nitric acid and only limited sign of goggles/eye protection in the Caesar photos - those would be new twists). Are these all variations on the same theme, an obsession of some local armed group?

FWIW I suspect the massive body flow to August stopped once that audience was gone. I don't suspect the same horror show kept running, at least not on that scale. I sure hope it didn't.

Summary

The celebrated overthrow of the "Assad regime" was supposed to remove the criminals from power in the name of Justice and Accountability over a lot of extremely serious crimes. But to the extent the research above is correct, it just removed the peoples' protector and brought to power the same forces - broadly speaking - behind perhaps every serious "Assad crime." The shooting of protesters, torturing and killing of kids, sectarian false-flag massacres like the ones in Houla and Al-Bayda, staged bombardment massacres, chemical weapons massacres, and the mass extermination of ~7,000 men and boys as documented in the "Caesar photos," and even more. The side responsible for the crueler, grislier, and much larger half of over half a million killed in Syria's Dirty war was - I think - just rewarded with control of all Syria's people. And, of course, it's being cheered all over. What do we think of and do about this?


Sunday, July 10, 2022

Inaugurating a Reign of Terror on Yablunska

Death in Bucha's Gray Zone, part 7: 

Inaugurating a "Reign of Terror" on Yablunska

July 10, 2022

(rough, incomplete)

Perhaps the best case for a genocidal Bucha Massacre came on March 5, when Russian tanks rolled in to northeast Yablusnka street and "a Russian sniper began firing on anything moving."  Counting those with clear locations, at least 18 civilians were killed here between March 4 and mid-day on March 10 - most of them visually confirmed and geolocated - with as many as 15 of them on the 5th. 

I started with great skepticism over these killings pinned on Russia, but having learned more of the military situation, the scope for any "false-flag" operations appears quite limited. Russian forces are probably responsible for the vast bulk of the violence examined here, but not all of it. Some clear war crimes are described, including at least one field execution and several shootings by snipers, and these claims have some support or at least can't all be ruled out. However, most incidents are murkier and require some study to compare the stories with the other available evidence. 

Some early deaths at 203 Yablunska

First, some examples of what I'm not counting, but include as possibly relevant - as related in some detail at another Monitor post, a connected-seeming local Oleksandr Konovalov claimed, in a June report to RFE/RL, to have found 11 bodies in a cellar near his home at 203 Yablunska, something no other sources I've seen mention. 

Back on April 2 or 4, also speaking to RFE/RL, he only knew of 4 early deaths, buried and separate from the 11.  None of them has further corroboration, and only one has a clear date. Therefore, I won't count these among the 18 below. Pointing to building 203A, Konovalov says six men and four women were living there when the Russians came. "They killed three men out of six." over days. He leads with "[The Russian troops] came here on February 27," but "the first day" for killings might refer to their arrival as occupiers, given by a few sources as March 3. 

2/27 or 3/3: "On the first day, they shot Yevhen on the street for no obvious reason. No one knows why." No victim of that name known to me, and no deaths here are known on either day. Burial place, if any, is unclear.

2/28 or 3/4" The next day, they shot Leonid. That morning, he showed them his documents and said that he lived here. He was shot in the back when he turned around." (gestures towards graves). A man who lived nearby  - Entry 1 below, Valerii Kizilov - was reported shot by soldiers sometime on the 4th at his own and different home. On either day, Leonid too seems a new story.  

2/28 or 3/4, or a later day: "They killed the third man when they were drunk. They told him to hand over their mobile phones. He brought the phones, and they shot him and then threw a grenade at him. He was buried in pieces without his head. It was horrible." (points to graves) That's a strange story we've never heard. The guy blown up AND shot, admittedly for no logical reason ("drunk") ... after collaborating with the Russians by delivering the phones of locals ... perhaps he was killed by a mortar shell or the like, from the Kiev side, maybe aiming for the soldiers. Maybe an Azov Battalion drone was used, lessening the likelihood this collaborator was killed on accident. If so, it would have to re-branded as a Russian crime, and the dumber the better, from the mindless, corrupted and self-destructive "orcs" of Banderite fairy tales. Either way - what remarkably poor luck had this building, at the edge of Bucha's no-man's land and Kiev's defense by artillery. 

Finally, as what seems a side-note, Oleksandr adds "My brother was killed on March 5 at around 5 o'clock when he was walking to a cellar. He was buried over there," pointing east. That's a date, but no name or killing location. It sounds like a match with #14, Roman, except for a different burial location. If this refers to one already listed, I can't say which. I won't count it in the 18. But before counting, note this could add 3 or 4 to the area total, or even more if some of those 11 in the cellar were killed this early.

3/4-3/10 East Yablunska Killings 

As widely reported, a reign of terror with random shootings and tank shelling along Yablunska street was ushered in with a bang on the 5th, after a smaller start on the 3rd. This is one of the few places Kiev's forces would be most capable of operating in, by virtue of two nearby river crossings from Irpin into Bucha's east and south. But that may not matter in these days and with these killings. 

Here, we'll consider at least 18 people killed between March 4 and March 10 on and near this 2-block stretch of Yablunska street (2 happened a block south, one a bit north). As many as 15 of these killing happened on March 5, at least one was reportedly on the 4th, one on the 6th, 17 dead by March 7, all 18 by noon on the 10th. In this central area, there's a lot of information from dated visuals and reports to cross-correlate it all with some confidence. This post expands on and improves my early "Mortar Alley" starter post. This overview map improves on the one there, which had placed the roundabout one block east, stretching the scene - that's fixed here. (the killings at that roundabout are not included here, happening a bit past the present timeframe.)

What we know about the circumstances of these are related below, in mostly chronological order.

1) Valerii Kizilov: Reuters and Digital Journal report Russian forces first arrived in south-central Bucha on March 3. commandeering the home of Vitalii Zhyvotovskyi. As told, they made him and his daughter stay in the basement, while they lived upstairs and brought people who were beaten and sometimes executed on-site. The first reported killing came on their second day, March 4: Valerii Kizilov, 70, stepped out of a cellar where he and his wife were hiding, across the street at 64 Vodprovidna. His wife, Lyudmyla Kizilova, 67, "heard shooting, then silence and an order shouted to her. “If there is someone down there, come out or I’ll throw a grenade in." She came out, was allowed to live and stay with the Zhyvotovskyis in their basement. 

Mrs. Kizilov says she later found Vitalii's body, shot in the head, and the Russians buried it in their garden March 9. She and the Zhyvotovskyis managed to flee on the 10th. Photos of the Zhyvotovskyi house with the Reuters report match with Vodoprovidna 55 (not numbered on Google Maps or on Yandex maps but logically it would be 55). Another article includes a photo "Lyudmyla Kizilova ... outside their partially destroyed house in town of Bucha, northwest of Kyiv, on April 27, 2022. " It looks like Vodoprovidna 64, right across the street.  Her house was still intact March 12-13, had been shelled and burned by the 23rd (Azov drone views), along with #55, with fires and escape tracks across the field behind. 

We don't have visual confirmation of the body or grave, but it seems likely enough, and it's dated with a name and story, the earliest such death in this area.

2) Irina Filkina: Catherine Philp wrote for the Times April 9: "The first to die on Yablunska Street was a female cyclist whose death was captured by a Ukrainian drone..." It was on March 5, not March 3, as the video initially claimed, so not quite the first. Her case has its own post here to consider the details. The time is not certain, at first seeming to me like close to the 5PM curfew, but reportedly in the morning, earlier than Oleg Abramov was killed. His wife (also named Iryna - I spell them differently to help avoid confusion) "said that she saw the body of a woman lying next to a bicycle a few meters from their gate, just after Russian forces shot and killed her husband." 

Filkina would be identified by her distinctive manicure, as seen in a close-up photo, and connected to a story related by her family members, especially daughter Olga. Irina was sheltering and helping at the Epicenter shopping center in western Kiev from Feb. 24 to March 5, when increased shelling had everyone departing the mall (which was apparently used by the military to launch attacks on Russian forces). She decided to go home to Mikhailovka-Rubezhovka, west of Irpin. She drove - apparently by bicycle - to the Romanivka crossing, then had to cross the river on foot, as the bridge was destroyed, Then she secured a bicycle (or a different one - unclear why) and continued towards home. But she didn't go directly to the west. There was a Russian offensive that day in western Irpin. She may have been directed north to avoid that fighting. 

A man from Irpin told Irina's daughter a woman fitting the description "rode a bicycle through the "Ukrainsky" checkpoint in the Buchansky district" at the north end of Irpin and the bridge to Bucha. Then she "turned around the corner, and the Russian military shot at her." Checkpoints should be manned, by people who seemingly waved Iryna further north to die, rather than turning her back, like Olga recalls trying to do. They'd say they were unaware of the Russian offensive all along her route, or the column of tanks that just arrived across the river. But an Azov Battalion drone was watching that column as it sat parked on and near Yablunska; it would watch her cycle right towards them, up Vokzalna street, and film the fatal shot just around the corner where she finally turned west. 



On the video, 2 tanks are seen firing, one primarily and starting before she was visible. It also seems that was aiming more up the street (see below, entries 5 & 6), rather than at her. The second tank fires just once, moments later (and thus likely in reaction to her), sending up white dust near the fence, likely including concrete dust from the impact that killed her. That might be the same one that knocked down a light pole, but it looks more like that already happened. Otherwise, I think, it would be visible in the yellow box above.  

The armored column responsible for that is presumably - but not certainly - Russian operated and part of their general expansion from the city's southwest. It could have just been surprised by her appearance, taking it as a threat. But they have much more to (allegedly) answer for.

3) Oleg Abramov: This too has a dedicated post, to be updated. Irina Filkina was shot right in front of the home of Volodomyr Abramov, his daughter Iryna Abramova, and her husband Oleg Abramov (who took his wife's name). Sometime in the morning, after Filkina's killing, one of the same armored vehicles pulled up closer, and in most versions, they tossed a "grenade" in the window, or perhaps fired a tank or even mortar shell ("projectile"), starting a fire. There's also a gas generator being started at the time to consider, and fragmentation marks all along the fence still to analyze. Whatever it was, and/or some later event blew the roof and some upper walls away from about 20m square. That happened prior to noon on March 10 (satellite), quite likely on the 5th just after the drone footage discussed above, For all we know, a Ukrainian mortar crew tried to hit the Russian column but hit the house instead. 

Then, as the story has been told many times now, the soldiers shot the gate with their rifles (it was unlocked), stormed into the yard and ordered everyone out, asking over and over where "the Nazis" were. No one knew. While the house burned, they had Oleg take off his shirt, presumably to check for Nazi tattoos. Finding no tattoos, facing no resistance, the soldiers shot Oleg in the head right there on the corner, killing him. They then sent Iryna and her father away, after a 3-hour interrogation, having them walk southwest on Yablunska, away from the frontline, where they found some shelter for the coming weeks.  

Iryna says she "always thought of [the Russians] as our brothers," being half-Russian herself. Of course, she changed her mind about that, thanks to the described events. Iryna says "She thinks they [executed Oleg] to scare others in Bucha into submission." The message would be "this is what happens to people who don't resist, have no known weapons, no military service, no Nazi tattoos, no Nazi addresses to give." It would not be in the Russians' rational interest. This sounds like up-close execution for no reason by villains in full cartoon mode, with a strong dose of suspicious irony. We're probably missing part of the story, but even after some closer looking, it's not clear just what. To be continued.

4) Another Body (and Maybe Another): Iryna Abramova saws she saw "bodies" already on the street when Oleg was killed. Irina Filkina was one (on the sidewalk next to the downed pole), and only one other is seen right there later. That body (seemingly adult male, with a white armband) is visible by satellite on March 10, in drone views on March 12/13 covered with a white banner, then uncovered by March 25 to April 2 and then moved to the sidewalk. The body was originally near a car that, by the drone video of the 5th, had already been shot or shelled and was partially crushed - maybe by a heavy truck as opposed to a tank. "On the night of March 4, [Iryna and Oleg] heard huge trucks passing in the road." It's not clear whose trucks, nor driving which way. Video analysis suggests all the marked items were down like this prior to the Abramov killing. 

The car seems to change positions from the March 5 image. Different ways to read that. 

Not mentioned: another body inside the Abramovs' gate. Iryna mentions a male cousin lived there, but never said if he was involved in the events of the 5th. As of March 25 anyway, a body is visible inside their gate (marked above as "??"), and can later be seen in views like the above, inside the gate laying next to Oleg's motorcycle. If the cousin were away, or had evacuated like most, anyone else is more likely to get killed here later. We'll count this death as an undated maybe, 4b on the overview map due to possible incident connection, but excluded from the count and "at least" tallies.

5,6) Volodomyr Brovchenko and another Man: The tanks in front of the Abramov house had already been doing stuff seen on video, like shooting cyclist Irina Filkina. The lead tank fires five times, and in one case, a glowing tank shell is visible (Qoppa). This can be approximately lined up with the tank's cannon turret and the line extended to estimate where it was aimed - not at Filkina but more straight down the street. The drone view doesn't go far enough to show an impact, but I marked features on a wider view that did and skewed that sketch until it fit here, to extend the view (approximate). It roughly intersects with a tree that was splintered and downed in front of 221 Yablunska, apparently on March 5. That should only require one shell; it's not clear where others might have impacted.

Immediately next to that tree is the corpse of a man with a blue bicycle, in some views guarded by a loyal dog.  He was most likely killed in the same strike that splintered the tree. I have previously written that this was "probably" hit from the southeast, mainly because other nearby impacts showed that (see "Mortar Alley" starter post). But the fence damage mainly to the east of the tree and runs for a ways, plus the way the tree toppled (see images below) fit much better with a tank shell fired from the west, as suggested here. 

AFP, "Death on Yablunska: Four lives that ended in Bucha" (one posting at The Star): Volodymyr Brovchenko, 68, was "shot dead while pedalling up Yablunska around March 5. A neighbour tried to pull his corpse from the street, and that man ended up getting shot too" but not fatally (and maybe somewhere else, really). "Brovchenko thus lay on the pavement with a blue bike for weeks." The other bicyclist in this stretch, with orange gloves, is named in the same article, and he died on the 6th, so this one with a blue bike must be him. 

Another man with no details is dead just on the other side of that tree, probably killed in that same shelling, collapsed with a small bag of groceries (maybe just baby potatoes). I've seen no reports with details on that one. but Mr. Brovchenko ...


A CBC News video (3:00) shows the same man and says "Volodomyr Brovchenko was killed by a sniper around March 5, according to neighbors. He was on his way to work at an orphanage in Vorzel." (Vorzel is just west of Bucha). Catherine Philp, The Times, April 9: "It was March 5" exactly, when "Volodymyr Borovchenko stepped out on Yablunska Street ... to reach the disabled children he cared for at an orphanage in Vorsel." He kept stepping, they heard, not pedaling. "...he moved gingerly. But he walked into an ambush. A sniper had been lying in wait, determined to keep the street clear of all human life."   

Small tears visible on his coat - similar to but denser than those seen on Irina Filkina's coat (and bicycle seat?) Apparently that's what this kind of tank shelling does. 


Confirming that 2 men were killed here, and killed first, TBS News Dig (Japan): A man on Yablunska said "When I looked through the hole in the wall on March 5 and 6, there were already bodies," In an accompanying video report, at 2:40 a video is shared, with a date shown as March 5, 12:04 PM. What's visible vs. what's blurred suggests the tree and 2 men are down; the whole areas is covered with one wide blur. They blur bodies in Japan, and can show brush like this, but one blur was easier. marked here with 2 white circles and a blue curve, for bodies and the tree. 

The van might be present, but likely is not (green box) Not present yet: The spilled oil from the burned van, and probably the van itself - an oil streak from another attack on a car - the apparent driver of that car, executed on the street. If the time on this is correct, all those things happened after noon of March 5.

7) Mykhailo Kovalenko

The body missing from that view was probably that of Mykhailo Kovalenko, age 62, going by AFP's "Death on Yablunska" report:  "While it was still possible, Mykhailo Kovalenko, his wife and daughter tried on March 5 to escape Bucha by car."  Their route apparently included west on Yablunska, towards the Irpin crossing. It was just before that left turn that Artem, the boyfriend of Kovalenko's daughter, says Kovalenko ""got out of the vehicle with his hands up" to present himself to a checkpoint manned by Russian soldiers." Nonetheless, Artem says, "the troops opened fire." His wife and daughter were able to run away, Artem says, even though the wife was shot in the leg as she ran - not injured in an attack on the car. No such attack is included in this telling; it sounds like they stopped voluntarily upon seeing the checkpoint, and were shot individually from there.

A later AFP report: "On the right in a black coffin is Mykhailo Kovalenko, 62, a father who was killed by a Russian sniper as he tried to escape, according to his grieving son-in-law." This indirect witness is the only one we've heard from. 

Handy description from "Death on Yablunska": Mr. Kovaleko's body lay on its side, dressed in a "blue parka and smart beige trousers." That's probably the body seen here, just behind a van he wasn't driving. But it seems that he was initially next to a car, the one his wife and daughter fled from. 

Some violence stopped the car there and caused a leak, with oil or whatever adding a stain on the pavement next to Mikhailo's body. As shown below (Azov drone, 3/25), that built up right there for some time (hours?) forming a large puddle, then a trail following the car as it was pushed back and off the street. This happened before the earliest images of March 6 or 7 including the burning van (next entry). Off the street, the car was then ransacked. Basic evacuation stuff is seen, including women's clothing. 



It wasn't mentioned, but the car came under attack. Some damage from this: bullet holes or fragment marks from maybe two angles, or from ahead and to the left; both driver's side windows shot out, marks along the driver's door and at the back end, an oblique tear - some others shattered the windshield, a couple in the hood, and at least one into a front tire. This would likely be prior to their stopping, and it might have caused injuries prior to Mr. Kovelnko stepping out or his wife running. In fact, it seems quite possible the attack was somewhat accidental and caused all these injuries, and the story was embellished to clarify criminal intent.


There's another body closest to the car, with less blood on the pavement than with most. That itself could suggest he had bled in the car, but the story has no room for a different or a second man in that car, and it may be a coincidence. In fact, it looks like the car was steered away from him as it was rolled back, set to perhaps run him over. That body remains publicly unidentified, and is counted below as simply before March 7 (in the image below, both bodies possibly connected are boxed along with the car in pale blue.)

8, 9, 10, 11) Three Women and a Girl in a Van

Now to that burned-out van. It's reported that three women and a girl (the only child whose death is considered here) were killed inside of it. This deserves its own post, and then a summary here, but for now ...

An early report from April 11 focused on the driver, Zhanna Kameneva, born 1985, a patriot from Bucha who had volunteered helping the military since 2014 and, with the public organization "Buchanska Varta", she "brought assistance to orphanages in Donetsk and Luhansk regions." Photo: Zhanna Kameneva during one of the trips to the East, from ZN.UA.

After the Russian invasion of 2022, she helped evacuate people from Bucha, according to a military man with "Buchanska Varta," Bogdan Yavorsky, who confirmed Kameneva's death: "According to Yavorsky, on March 5, she was carrying her employee from Bucha to Kyiv with her 14-year-old daughter and neighbor when the car was shot from armored personnel carriers and, probably, with assault rifles, as a result of which the car burned down and all four people died." According to Yavorsky, According to the activist, Zhanna labeled her car "children" and "evacuation." The van was identified by the VIN code in April. Kamaneva's remains (presumed - it seems no DNA testing was possible) were buried on April 9. 

A more detailed report from ZN.UA ("Mirror of the Week?") in May includes a photo looking inside the van to show less than four peoples' worth of carbonized tissue in 4 seats, the rest of it probably nearby. The victims are listed as: Zhanna Kameneva, Maria Ilchuk, 14-year-old Anya Mishchenko and her mother Tamila Mishchenko. 

Zn.ua spoke to Zhanna's bereaved husband Gennady (Kamanev?), who has served in the Ukrainian Armed Forces since February 24. That day, she evacuated their children. After nthat, "Joan [Zhanna] in Bucha transported people's products from our store and, if possible, took out friends and those who asked for help. ...On March 3, she told me that people would come and take the last products. On the 4th, she came home to Bucha, moved to the night and on March 5 she already wanted to go to Irpin." 

It's not clear exactly how to read that passage - what "products" there was in whose "store" in Bucha the "last" of which was so urgently needed in government-held Irpin? "People" would take it, but we hear Mrs. Kamaneva herself "was carrying food to Irpin." Gennady and Zhanna are both described as "volunteering." In his case, it's with the Ukrainian military, and perhaps in her case as well. The nature of this March 5 mission is a bit unclear, in a way that might be very relevant.

"On the morning of March 5, Zhanna called me and said that she had come to Bucha and saw how enemy equipment came to our Lech Kaczynski Street." What he calls "our street" is the location of the same day's killing of the Chikmaryov family reportedly by said tanks, at 7:15 AM. It's unclear if she had been there overnight or came in the morning, but either way she might have seen that event, or the aftermath of it. If so, she doesn't mention it. "I asked her to be careful and she said, "I love you very much."

Ilchuk (the "employee"?), was ill and suffering in the cold. She turned down an early evacuation offer, but now "agreed to go with [Zhanna] when she saw what atrocities the occupiers were committing in Bucha." Tamila Mishchenko was apparently Zhanna's employer, and not a close neighbor. Her son, and Anya's older brother, Evgeny said "it so happened that my mother's employee Zhanna, who was a volunteer, was carrying food to Irpin. She called my mother and said that now she would go past Tarasivska Street and would be able to take us out. ..." Yandex Maps shows Tarasivska street a bit north of east Yablunska. The 3 areas and basic suggested route are mapped at right. 
"Then from Irpen there was still a train on which it was possible to get to Kiev." The rail bridge was blown, by the "Rashits" as told, but from the Kiev side, sometime that same morning. And they never crossed to Irpin anyway, although they apparently got close. 

Evgeniy refused to go, Anya reportedly didn't want to go, and their family in general had encouraged them to stay put until there was an agreed "green corridor." Evgeniy explained how their home was unusually safe, but he says "panic and fear worked. My mother wanted to save my sister, so she took this step" and accepted the fatal ride to Irpin. He also says:

"On March 5, I texted Zhanna with the question: "How is my mother?" In response, she wrote a short word: "Norm." And when I called Zhanna's number after lunch, I heard in response: "This number does not exist." My mother's number replied: "At the moment, the caller cannot accept your call.""

Damage Analysis: Zhanna's husband Gennady was convinced that the Russian military killed his wife, from a "checkpoint" on the corner of Vokzalna and Yablunska streets. Seeing the van, Gennady thought it might have been hit with a Rocket-Propelled Grenade or the cannon of an Infantry Fighting Vehicle - less than full-on tank fire. In my assessment, the main impact was through the windshield - an extra-scorched arc across the hood might mark its detonation ring - a pressure wave bulged out the roof and driver's side, tearing out on the passenger side - a number of fragments and/or bullets tore into the hood and windshield frame - a separate shell impact to the grill, driver's side. There seem to be more punctures clear in the back of the van, and some are clearly visible from the back. The van may have been shot from the back at one point, as well as from the front. Damage from later fighting can't be ruled out.


Timeline Issues: At the ZN.UA article, a sort of death certificate is shown, saying Zhanna Kamaneva died March 5. But as far as I can see, that's not clear. Gennady said it was that morning when "sometime around the 10th hour, I received a text message from her: "Enemy tanks are coming at us."" The location was not specified. "She called me, but I didn't have a connection then, and the message came at 11 o'clock. After reading, I immediately began to call her, there was a call, but no one picked up the phone. Perhaps their phones were taken away before they were killed."

The way it actually rang seems to have tipped him off that the phone wasn't destroyed. I'm not sure how that works, but Evgeniy says he got a message that the number doesn't exist - but that was "after lunch." Otherwise, the direct assumption is that they were killed by sudden tank fire on the van, which would have it ablaze by 11 AM, and probably earlier. 

But that was not the case. TBS News Dig (Japan) heard from a man on Yablunska who said "When I looked through the hole in the wall on March 5 and 6, there were already bodies. On the 6th or 7th a car was burned and there were four bodies in it." He's not clear when the people inside became bodies - presumably at the same time the van was burned, presumably in an attack. But as shown above, a video shows that, as of 12:04 PM on the 5th, the van hadn't been attacked yet. It might be present, but in a different position if so. That's about 2 hours after that tank was reportedly headed for them and at least an hour after contact was lost.

The final attack might have happened in the early afternoon or evening, or as said the following day or maybe even on the on 7th. What transpired in the hours to days in between, after their phones were perhaps taken, remains unclear. The van was clearly blasted here; it could hardly drive from anywhere else in this state ... Possibilities: killed here and blasted all at once - killed here while driving the 5th, bodies left inside, or taken out and killed, then put back inside, and then blasted later to burn the evidence - the same but killed elsewhere, then moved here and blasted - no clear motive for the Russians to do that, no clear reason to suspect anyone else - no witnesses to any manipulations - nor to the actual attack, for that matter. Just one external witness mentions it, but he doesn't even clarify the date. 

It would be handy to have this story lead to this spot on the morning of March 5, and to that tank column already seen there and implicated in other apparently senseless killings. The final message and van location would seem to seal that up. But the connective evidence doesn't seem to reflect that sealing, instead revealing an unexplained gap. 

Bucha prosecutors shared with CNN some photos taken mostly on March 5, 6 and 7. One image including the van recently hit, intensely burning like it was hit just minutes ago. Mr. Brovchenko lays dead and Mykhailo Kovalenko pours blood on the pavement, and his car has already been pushed aside. But conveniently enough, they didn't give a specific date for that image.  

So we can only assume a date range of the 5th to the 7th, but I've listed them by the official date and implied time, and more follow on the 5th in the same alleged sequence ... 

12,13) Two Sisters: NYT month of terror:  "On March 5th, a Russian sniper began firing on anything moving south of the high school. ... A retired teacher known as Auntie Lyuda, short for Lyudmyla, was shot midmorning on March 5th as she opened her front door on a small side street. Her body lay twisted, half inside the door, more than a month later." "Her younger sister Nina, who was mentally disabled and lived with her, was dead on the kitchen floor. It was not clear how she died. “They took the territory and were shooting so no one would approach,” a neighbour, Serhiy, said. “Why would you kill a grandma?”"

AFP: "According to her death certificate, Lyudmyla Bochok, 79, was killed by a bullet to the head and the back on March 5. Her body was found lying on the doorstep of her home at 87, Peremogy Street in Bucha." "Bochok's mentally handicapped sister Nina, 74, was found dead in the kitchen: she died of heart failure, according to the death certificate seen by AFP. But her nephew Yevgen Pasternak believes she died of fright, loneliness or hunger, after the Russians executed her sister." 

No such address "87, Peremogy Street" exists, per Google or Yandex Maps. The NYT mapping probably equates to #13 on the corner of Peremohy (Peremogy) street and Peremohy lane. A satellite view and distant street view seem consistent, but not verifiable. This is 2 blocks east and one block south of where the tank column was seen, It's just one block east of where a shelled-out tank appeared just before the bridge to Irpin between March 4 and 10 - likely on the 5th but maybe later. It may have been another Russian tank trying to cross, hit by the Ukrainians. It's not likely to be the other way around; the barricades set by Ukrainian forces are moveable, but comparing them, it seems like they probably weren't moved.  Also added between 3/4 and 3/10 on the Irpin side right in the path of evacuees, is a badly destroyed civilian car and a mostly-intact male corpse next to it. 


Point being: this is almost at the crossing to Irpin, the one place in the area where Ukrainian fighters might still operate, on foot at least, even despite a Russian incursion. Therefore who's around to shoot or to inspire shelling is not so clear as it is right on Yablunska. Their neighbor Serhiy, for example, might know more about this.

I tried some scene analysis from the 4 photos I've found. Outside: a window is broken, several possible marks to both visible walls (from 2 directions, and I can't say which 2), some of them on the obliquely-viewed wall on the left (maybe facing north?) seem to have singed the wall in a way I don't think regular bullets do. Shelling? Less marks appear on the other wall (facing west?). 3 marks are visible on a corner inside the door (a wardrobe?), maybe from bullets at a distance. It could be a shell impacted, and when she came out to inspect, someone shot her. We can't see any marks on Lyudmila's body, but another photo I've seen in clear she lost some blood across the pavement. That photo also shows the interior marks better (inset here).

Inside, kitchen wall - unclear how it relates to the doorway seen above: one possible bullet or fragment mark of the regular type has cipped the wall, one that hit on the wallpaper also burned a ring around it. Nina was found curled up just below these marks, dead of heart attack in a reported coincidence. She could have been hit, but it's not clear why that should be denied.

Something strange about her hands could have a mix of causes including, but not limited to, decay and frostbite and prior medical conditions.

14) Roman: 
The final entry for the 5th is the only one specified as not in the morning. This one gets half of a dedicated post. In summary, RFE/RL reported from an anonymous man "a sniper started shooting in the area on March 5 ... When we left our house before the curfew time that day, a sniper killed my son-in-law." HRW reported the location as NW Yablunska and the time as "about 4:30" (curfew was 5:00). "[T]hey opened their front gate to assess the damage. As Roman stepped out of the yard, his father-in-law heard a muffled sound and Roman fell to the ground." He was pulled back to safety. "Roman’s sister-in-law, Tetiana, said they tried unsuccessfully to call a hospital and the Ukrainian territorial defense forces for help. Roman suffered all night and died the following morning at about 8 a.m.." 

NYT Month of Terror: Referring to March 5th: "That afternoon, a father and his son stepped out of their gate to go for a walk." Here the father is named Ivan, Roman left unnamed and called son, not son-in-law. Ivan says “They shot my son ... It would be better if it had been me. ... It’s very hard to bury your child.” Roman “died at 8.20 am,” and "the family buried him in the front garden under a huge mound of earth. “

Assuming son-in-law with added affection, the stories track well. Drone videos don't show a mound in the garden, but it might be hidden under trees. There is a mound of earth outside the fence, where the sniper was supposedly at work, but that may be coincidental.  

How did Roman get shot? It seems possible he and Ivan were seen as a threat, maybe stepping out to record the Russians' position or even to directly attack them. Calls were placed to Territorial Defense - because they come and help random people, or because they were Roman's secret employers? If so, the family might be quieter about the incident, to avoid drawing attention to it.

15) Mykhailo Romaniuk: UP March 6, archived: Verbatim city council: "The enemy continues to shell houses, cars, kill civilians and even children, ...A significant number of residents are in basements." For example, Yablunska 17 was hit late on the 5th, after the local water tower had been destroyed - fires raged uncontrolled all night, destroying many homes. No injuries or deaths mentioned. (will be covered in another post) But the day's one reported death was reportedly by shooting.

AFP, Death on Yablunska: "On March 6, at 10:30 am," Mykhailo Romaniuk, 58, was accompanying his niece's boyfriend Oleksandr Smagliuk, 21, on a visit to the hospital where Smagliuk's father was just wounded in whoever's shelling of the city. Romaniuk hoped to charge his phone at least, besides offering support. They arrived on Yablunska, seemingly headed west. "Then the shooting started," Smagliuk said. "We didn't see anybody. I didn't realise until the end where the shots came from. I just heard gunfire and saw him fall." He doesn't say where the shots came from, or how he decided that, or why the shooters didn't shoot him too. We hear these Russians were "determined to keep the street clear of all human life."   

"Romaniuk's body remained for 28 days on a stretch of pavement with a yellow and white curb - his swollen face turned to the side in a grimace, orange gloves still on his hands." This is apparently him. (below: #8 in a gold box) 

"[Romaniuk's] death certificate cites "ballistic cranial trauma, caused by a penetrating bullet... multiple cerebral lesions and fracture of the cranial cavity", and concludes: "automatic weapon injury with intent to kill." Not to call a Ukrainian official death certificate fake, but I would expect these injuries were caused by "shrapnel" from the mortar or artillery shell that obviously impacted the ground less than 5 meters east of where he fell, forming a crater. It happened, and would spray many metal fragments in his direction, to lacerate the skin of his head, cause a skull fracture and another penetration to the back of the head, as he was positioned. And they do say "cranial," not "facial," There may be other injuries not mentioned here, like more "bullets" in his back. Mr. Smagliuk, if he had really been there, probably would have been hit by some fragments as well, but that isn't mentioned, as he defies the evidence to claim shooting. 

Or did the crater possibly come later? The March 7 video is unclear, with the blur seeming to just cover the impact area. A still provided to CNN by Bucha prosecutors is also unclear - in a batch dated March 5-7, the one of Romaniuk just crops off the crater area - some of the ejecta seems to be visible, faintly, as a line of slightly darker patches running from above his handlebars to the right, maybe including a branch, but also more dark debris, I think that means the crater is already made.

Satellite views offer little clarity - see comparison below - 3/10 unclear but might show it - drone views 3/12-13 not clear, but perhaps DON'T show it when they would - but extra bright noon sun and sidewalk glare might wash it out in the low-resolution views - it's only clear by Maxar's enhanced view of March 19, but quite possibly there since the day Mr. Romaniuk died, and probably related to its cause, as I always assumed. 

As I earlier noted and maintain, the crater and its ejecta to the northwest indicate the shell was fired from the southeast - Ukrainian-held territory. It hit immediately in front of what's later seen as a Russian base at 221b Yablunska. A spray-painted V, discarded ammunition boxes give that impression. It's not clear if it was even an alleged Russian base on the 6th, nor why it logically would ever be a worthwhile base - would later be involved in strange activities (A CBC News video).
2015 street view, crops too tight to show the relevant gate, but verifies the place, all near the area described by the witness.

16, 17) Two others by March 7
Another body lies near Mr. Romaniuk, a bit west and uphill from him, that might well have died from the same shelling - or possibly from something earlier. He can't be ruled out of the scene noon on the 5th (off frame), but likely came later, or else his body might have been shown. This man lost a lot of blood from the head, and as seen in April and by the 3/25 drone view, has had some of his hip torn off by hungry stray dogs, not in the fatal attack. 

Another is also close enough to connect, but two details raise questions - he's next to the car otherwise linked to Kovalenko, and he's shed less blood on the asphalt than the other victims. Logically, he may have been hit inside the car and only pulled out later. But the reports don't mention a second man, so that may be coincidence. (below, bodies 9 and 10 in the orange box) 

18) Another soon after
Another crater would appear in this same area, along with one more body to complete the terrible array we'd see in April, This final addition is the most visible in the famous driving videos, splayed dramatically in the middle of the street near an obvious mortar shell crater and a spray of dirt and rocks across the street. (#11 in red below, 18 on the overview map). 
The body and crater appear at the same time, as far as I can tell, on an unclear day - possibly after noon on the 7th, maybe on the 8th or 9th, or the 10th, but it seems satellite views show a body there at least by the 10th at pretty close to noon - body connects with pole shadow, but seems to be there - crater unclear, in shadow, but seemingly present - clearly present 3/12-13 and clearer yet 3/19 (see comparisons below). As with the March 6 crater and even more clearly, this shell was fired from the southeast, Ukrainian-held territory. 

East core area overview images
First, the best available view from a March 25 Azov Battalion drone video -  different numbers than used for the overview map above, by reported dates. Again, both bodies possibly connected to the car are boxed along with it in pale blue, along with its oil track. Another abandoned car at the right side surely has an interesting story, but it doesn't connect to any known cases.

Panoramic view from TBS News Dig of the street as it appeared on March 7 - just one body, one crater missing from the final array. Scene looked like that from March 5 ... a dated reading, superseded by the above. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_x25yKasPGo
at 3:48 ... shows filmed March 7 at 12:33PM. 

For the murkier cases with craters, early satellite and drone views March 10-19, no enhancements, compared - van marked yellow - upper right view has opposite rotation (viewed from the north): 


Review
Total March 4-10, east Yablunska core area: at least 18 killed. (1 girl, 6 women, 11 men). As many as 4 other men were killed in the same days and area, per Mr. Konovalov, but his narrative aside, they likely fit the same patterns as those with clearer evidence. At least one execution seems pretty sure (#3 Abramov with his shirt off). Others may have been deliberately shot, but often are near other shooting or shell impacts that might be what killed them. In my assessment, 7 were seemingly killed by "tank shelling" - something on treads with a cannon (#2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11), apparently Russian forces, from the west. 7 died by unclear shelling or shooting (#1, 4, 7, 12, 14, 16, 17). Most of those were officially listed as killed by "shooting," mostly reported as the "sniper" type. One reportedly died from heart attack (#13, Nina Bochok). 

Unprovoked acts of evil by the Russians are entirely possible, have been reported, and are widely presumed. But to my mind, this remains unproven. In some cases, a part may be played by misread movements, especially past or near curfew in these days outside of agreed evacuation operations. These could just be the kind of traffic incidents common to military forces occupying urban areas, especially where attacks are launched from civilian homes and cars - people round the wrong corner too fast in low visibility, for example, and the Russians shoot first, ask questions later. The number of such incidents seems alarming but might just reflect the scale of Russian operations here - a lot of traffic means a lot of incidents. 

It's possible, though not much indicated, that some victims were engaged in actual attacks on Russian forces, where the shooting was in actual self-defense, At least two were probably killed by attacks against the Russians, or even in a deliberate false-flag sense, with shelling from the Kiev side (#15 Romaniuk, #18 unidentified). Others might have been killed in the same and other such strikes or other false-flag attacks (e.g. Abramov house, body 4b), but just the two are fairly clear. That's not as many as I initially suspected, but that's how the learning goes here.