Israel "Bringing Home" its Hostages - in Caskets

January 29, 2024

Adds on 2/3, Big adds Feb. 11-13

The Israeli Defense Forces continues its massive violence in Gaza aimed at eradicating Hamas and finding the remaining Israeli hostages to "bring them all home." Going on four months in, they claim one successful rescue. 

Private Ori Megidish, a lookout soldier from Nahal Oz Base, was reportedly rescued on early in the offensive, on October 30. It wasn't clear if she was actually rescued or willingly released. An initial IDF statement said Megidish was “released,” but that was a "translation error," they said - she was “actively rescued." (CNN) Israeli MFA spokesperson Yaari Cohen later said the supposed rescue provided "hope to millions of Israelis that more hostages can be released." 

Four days before that rescue, on October 26, Hamas' Al-Qassam Brigades announced that Israel had killed “almost 50 captives” in missile and air strikes. (The Gray Zone) This has never been proven, confirmed, or agreed, but it might well be true - Israel got a solid start to "freeing" the hostages by killing some 20% of them in the first weeks. Other cases we'll consider below all postdate this possible total and would add to it. 

Interestingly, pvt. Megidish was missing from initial listings of those kidnapped, according to some observers, until she was added on the day of her rescue. (Hala Jaber). An oddity: a terrorist computer found in al-Shifa hospital had a public photo of pvt. Megidish as its wallpaper. "Why would this PC only contain one picture of a “single rescued Israeli soldier” which was earlier captured and brought to Gaza." https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1724881517082525860 Maybe she was never captured, and the photo was brought in to make some kind of case for that? I'm still not sure what to make of that or what it was even meant to signify, but it seems like a strange coincidence.

The Megidish case might have given people hope, but if that didn't fall flat from the strange details, it would be deflated after the following weeks of Israel's brutal destruction of the same Gaza the hostages were sheltered in. Aside from the one case, they've apparently rescued no hostages, but it seems they've killed quite a few. 

Some 240+ hostages were originally tallied. Some 109 were released by Hamas before December 16, when CNN reported "132 captives were believed to still in Gaza, of whom 112 were thought to still be alive." But since then, the IDF had accidentally killed three, so it was 129 held, 109 of them alive =  20 dead. (CNN) January 15, Times of Israel: "It is believed that 132 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza — not all of them alive — after 105 civilians were released from Hamas captivity during a weeklong truce in late November. Four hostages were released prior to that, and one was rescued by troops. The bodies of eight hostages have also been recovered and three hostages were mistakenly killed by the military. The Israel Defense Forces has confirmed the deaths of 25 of those still held by Hamas, citing new intelligence and findings obtained by troops operating in Gaza."

Tallies will vary a bit with small details I don't know, but let's compare mid-December and mid-January. 132-25=107 still alive - just 2 less than a month earlier (109 on Dec. 16). 25 dead vs. 20 = up five. Below, I count six hostages likely killed by the IDF in that span. They may be responsible for all the added deaths.

The website https://oct7map.com/ currently lists 112 hostages released alive by Hamas - mainly during grudgingly-agreed cease-fires - and 138 still held, assumed alive or not confirmed as dead. The site lists at least 24 hostages specified as "Murdered in Captivity." We'll exclude one (Ilan Weiss) who was assumed kidnapped then reported dead, but he was actually found at his home, killed on October 7. That leaves 23. With the others listed, that gives a suggested total of at least 274 original hostages - more than the 240 or so first reported.

Of these 23, half of them - 11 - were likely killed in known IDF actions, with reasons to suspect that already published. The deadly actions include at least 2 airstrikes, a botched rescue effort, a tunnel attack on Hamas leaders (perhaps with toxic gas), and hostages directly surrendering to the IDF who were shot dead instead of taken home.

One hostage - Guy Illouz - was noted as killed by medical neglect (and with sanctions, etc. that might be partly the IDF's fault). note 2/3: Judith/Yehudit Weiss also "was a cancer patient, and after her abduction, her family expressed concern for her health, assuming she would not receive the necessary medical treatment while in captivity."  And then she might die, or be "murdered," as listed.  https://nachamuami.com/fallen/yehudit-weiss/ 

The other half -  also 11 - are unclear. Some were elderly and likely died from other medical issues, including limitations imposed on all Humans currently stuck in Gaza. The rest, like the other 11, are listed and/or reported as killed by Hamas, but may have been killed in other IDF strikes - no details were given in most cases. As far as I see, there are no proven Hamas executions among the 23. 

Add 2/3: Soldier Naama Levy has not been "murdered" that we know of, but she may have been seen lightly injured after an Israeli attack in late November. https://twitter.com/MatamalasJ/status/1736431066188013571

If, as al-Qassam claimed, "almost 50" hostages - say ~47 - were killed in IDF attacks by late October, this 11 would make for at least ~58 killed in IDF actions or otherwise following in the assault and sanctions. The other 11 could make for ~69 - with perhaps others unreported or lost in the shuffle. Just 106 or so are thought to remain alive, and that's probably high. And again, none of them have been rescued aside from the one dubious case. 

As Udi Goren, whose cousin was killed by Hamas, told CNN “The ground invasion" - all the killing in the name of rescuing the hostages - "is killing the hostages.” (CNN) So far, at the immense cost to Gazan civilians and some IDF troops, the hostages only come home in caskets. 

But in a related development, Gaza is getting quite flat and unlivable, as have the bodies of some 20-30,000 Gazans. Considering that and all the other pros and cons, it seems worth continuing the war - likely through all of 2024 (BBC). Maybe after another 10,000 children are killed the hostages can all brought home, and perhaps a handful of them can even come home alive. But even if none of them does, maybe 100,000 will be killed in Gaza, and the rest may all have to "voluntarily" relocate in order to survive, so to some minds it will seem well worth the effort.

23 Total "Murdered in Captivity"

name - location - notes ("murdered" = no further details I know of)

1 Inbar Haiman - Music Festival - "murdered"

2 Guy Illouz - Music Festival - "murdered due to intentional prevention of proper medical care"

3 Elia Toledano - Music Festival - "murdered"  likely in 12/14 IDF tunnel attack

4 Yossi Sharabi - Be'eri - "murdered" after IDF strike in mid-January

5 Yonatan Samerano - Be'eri - "murdered"

6 Itay Svirski - Be'eri - "murdered" after IDF strike in mid-January

7 Sahar Baruch - Be'eri - "murdered" during IDF rescue effort Dec 8

8 Ofra Kedar - Be'eri - "murdered"

9 Judith Weiss - Be'eri - "murdered" - cancer patient - found near Shifa hospital when Cpl. Marciano was found, spurring Israel's mass-removal of bodies 

10 Eitan Levy - Be'eri - "murdered" after IDF strike in mid-January 

11 Alon Lulu Shamriz - Kfar Aza - "murdered" accidentally by IDF after escaping captivity, 12/15

12 Yotam Haim - Kfar Aza - "murdered" accidentally by IDF after escaping captivity, 12/15

13 Ronen Engel - Nir Oz - "murdered"

14 Eliyahu Margalit - Nir Oz - "murdered"

15 Gadi Haggai - Nir Oz - "murdered"

16 Maya Goren - Nir Oz - "murdered"

17 Judy W'stein Haggai Nir Oz - "murdered"

18 Arye Zalmanovich - Nir Oz - "murdered"

19 Cpl. Noa Marciano - Nahal Oz base - "murdered" at Shifa hospital "quickly" after injury in IDF strike, 11/9 - body found near hosp. when Judith Weiss was found

20 Joshua Mollel - Nahal Oz - "murdered"

21 Samar Fouad Talalka - Nir Am - "murdered" accidentally by IDF after escaping captivity, 12/15

22 Ron Scherman - COGAT Base - "murdered"  likely in 12/14 IDF tunnel attack

23 Nik Beizer - COGAT Base - "murdered" likely in 12/14 IDF tunnel attack

In a picture:

Sources (by incident date):

November 9 strike on Noa Marciano's captor but not on her - 11/17: Body of second Israeli hostage found near Shifa Hospital in Gaza: IDF | National Post "On Monday night, Hamas released a video of Marciano that the Israel Defense Forces described as “psychological terror.” The video claimed that Marciano was killed in an airstrike in Gaza." 

https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1726368486027403419

"On November 9, CPL Noa Marciano was injured from an IAF strike and the terrorist holding her hostage was neutralized. Following a preliminary pathological report, it was revealed that Noa’s injury was not life-threatening." These injuries are not described. Then, they say, "Noa was murdered by a Hamas terrorist in the Shifa Hospital." because it's absurd to think the same IDF strike that killed her captor could also kill her. And they took her to the hospital - that's a dead giveaway that they planned to murder her. 

The fatal injuries, added to the unclear injuries from the strike, were described (1st source): “After analyzing the footage, experts suggest that her injuries do not align with those typically sustained in airstrikes,” the IDF said in a statement. “The observed wounds appear more consistent with bullet injuries, and there is also an indication that she may have suffered from injuries related to a fall from a height.” So she was quickly shot all over and dropped from a height once they had her in the hospital? That's not the most likely, but it's implied these injuries appeared AFTER the airstrike injuries, which they don't describe - since they don't seem to be from an airstrike. That should be all you need to know to understand these were later, execution-related injuries. Why did they need to consider if they were from some other airstrike? Or are they talking about the same injuries allegedly from their own attack? Did she suffer those supposedly atypical injuries in their strike, and are those - as far as they know - the same injuries she died from? If so, why does their being atypical matter? In other words, they seem to be dissembling badly.

IDF rescue effort Dec 8: Sahar Baruch from Be'eri was killed. A botched hostage rescue was reported Dec. 8 - 2 soldiers were badly wounded and, sadly, no hostages rescued - but some kidnappers were killed, and definitely no hostages were killed (the possibility wasn't even mentioned). (Times of Israel)

Later: Jan. 3 Hostage Sahar Baruch killed during rescue attempt a month ago, IDF says | The Times of Israel "The IDF has notified the family of hostage Sahar Baruch that he was killed during a failed attempt to rescue him from Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip on December 8. The military says it is unable to determine the cause of death at this stage, and it is unknown if Baruch was murdered by Hamas or killed by Israeli fire. Hamas at the time claimed that Baruch was killed by the IDF, publishing footage of his body." Hamas executed him during the IDF effort to free him. If only the IDF had gotten there sooner ... Or was that not a coincidence? Did the attack provoked Hamas to kill him, or ... he was one of the "kidnappers" initially reported killed? 

Aviva Klompas on X 12/8: "The video released today ends by showing his tortured and mutilated body. Rather than screaming for the release of the hostages who are enduring untold evils, the world wants Israel to retreat. There can be no ceasefire until all the hostages are released and the Hamas war machine is destroyed." The IDF needs to go in there, guns blazing, or else these murders will never be stopped. Could he not see the possible connection to the day's failed raid and think to temper such comments? Most likely she could see that and was operating from an aggressive defiance of reality, fully expecting to win over reality in the end.

December 14 tunnel attack: Jan. 17, Jerusalem Post via MSN: "The IDF could not confirm the cause of death of killed Gaza hostages Ron Sherman and Nick Beiser, the military confirmed in a Wednesday statement. Their bodies were retrieved from a Hamas tunnel by the IDF in Jabalya on December 14, 2023, together with the body of Elia Toledano. ... Close to where the bodies were found, the IDF attacked a tunnel in which the commander of the northern division of Gaza, Ahmad Al Ghandour, was killed. The investigation shows that at the time of the attack, the IDF did not know about the presence of hostages in the area. Also, the forces who found their bodies during searches in the tunnel did not have prior intelligence about their presence." 

"Ron Sherman’s mother, Maya, published a post yesterday in which she accused the IDF of mistakingly [sic] killing her son. “The results of the investigation: Ron was indeed murdered,” she wrote. “Not by Hamas. Think more in the direction of Auschwitz and the showers but without Nazis and without Hamas as the cause. No accidental shooting, no report, premeditated murder, bombings with poisonous gases.” According to her, the IDF filled the tunnel in which he was held with gas, and [her] son was poisoned to death."

Her full reasoning can't be assessed, but here's some commentary she added: 

“Ron was kidnapped because of the criminal negligence of all the senior officials of the army and the damned government who gave the order to eliminate him in order to settle a score with some terrorist from Jabalya.” The mother claimed that “they found that he also had several crushed fingers, apparently due to his desperate attempts to get out of the poison grave that the IDF buried in him when he tried to breathe air, but he only breathed IDF poison. There is no future for this country if this is what they did to you after they abandoned you that Saturday. What was the decision if Bibi’s son was there in the terrorist’s tunnel or Gallant’s grandson? Or the son of Hertzi Halevi? Would they also have been poisoned with gas bombs?”

On the 12/14 strike - The Messenger via MSN: Top Hamas Commander Who Survived Two Assassination Attempts Killed in Israeli Airstrike (msn.com) - no mention of any chemical weapons employed in the operation. 

Before, October 26, Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal: "We have information from trusted sources that the [US's] plan with Israel is to send special American/Israeli forces, administered by the US and executed either by Israel or combined [US and Israel] to... use nerve gases, aiming to paralyse the capabilities of Palestinian soldiers in the tunnels and trenches without killing him so they do not kill the hostages or captives held in these tunnels," he said. (Middle East Eye ) But this wouldn't explain hostages in the tunnels dying. 

Sponge bombs? This came up at the same time. In itself, the stuff is dangerous to the eyes, but otherwise non-toxic. Does Israel Really Have 'Sponge Bombs' For Sealing Tunnels? (thedrive.com) Nothing meant to kill has been publicly discussed. But a tunnel sealed with sponge material might become extra lethal if any kind of gas was then poured in. We also know they've flooded some tunnels with sea water. As far as I know, that's what they did here.  

"Also, on December 12, 2023, the IDF recovered the bodies of Aden [Eden] Zakaria and Ziv Dado from the same area." (Jerusalem Post via MSN) Both are now thought to be killed on 10/7, bodies kidnapped to Gaza for later exchange. But both were considered missing until found dead. Were they actually kidnapped alive and then killed in this same incident, or another incident related to the same assault? I've seen no details like the state of decay they were in when found. 

December 15 IDF Shooting: Truly appalling - Alon Shimriz and Yotam Haim from Kfar Aza, along with Samer Talalka kidnapped near Nir Am, were somehow free and wandering Shejaya under Israel's bombing and then ground assault. We don't even know the story they would tell about how they escaped captivity before they found fellow Israelis, approaching the IDF soldiers cautiously with a white flag. The soldiers apparently saw a ruse and opened fire, killing 2 (unclear which) and wounding the third. He hid and cried for help in Hebrew. The shooting stopped, then somehow resumed, and the third guy was also killed. The IDF just cannot get these people back home alive, even when they escape on their own and even when they do that AND survive the first round of inexplicable shooting. There just has to be another round of shooting. (you should know this story - CNN just in case)

January 15 IDF airstrike: Killed on or around Jan. 15 after an IDF airstrike: Yossi Sharabi, 51 and Itay Svirsky, 38, from Be'eri. Eitan Levy was also killed. Details left unresolved on my end.  

A posts on the Jan. 15 Hamas video - https://twitter.com/OliLondonTV/status/1746998477593203160: an injured Noa Argamani says an IDF airstrike killed Sharabi and Svirsky. But Oli notes "one of the men appears to have died from a severe head wound with the other showing signs of strangulation- pointing to Hamas being responsible for their deaths. It comes after the terror group released a video game style propaganda video asking viewers to guess which hostages were alive or dead."

January 15, Times of Israel - via MSN: IDF fears for the lives of the 2 men after seeing the video where they seem dead. 

"IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Monday evening that Hamas’s claim that the military targeted a building where the three hostages were being held, killing two of them, was a lie. However, he indicated that it was possible that the hostages were located close to a building that was targeted by the IDF and may have been endangered." “Itay was not killed by our forces. This is a Hamas lie,” Hagari said. “The building where they were held was not a target and was not attacked by our forces.” They know this because “We did not know their exact location in real-time. We do not strike where we know there are hostages. In retrospect, we know that we attacked targets close to the location where they were held,” Hagari said, adding that the IDF was investigating the footage in the propaganda clip published by Hamas.

They won't strike unless they know the hostages aren't there - but they don't know where they were - it's "possible" they were in a nearby building. Actually, "in retrospect, we know" they were in a nearby building, but they aren't sure which one or how nearby. Couldn't they also be in the same building? Sure, but they didn't know that, and "the IDF do not strike where we know there are hostages." So if the IDF killed them, it was accidental, and the Hamas claim that the IDF accidentally killed them is a terrorist lie.

Add 2/11: Noa claims on video: F-16 strike, 3 rockets, 2 of which exploded. Only Yossi was killed then; Noa and Itay survived, were relocated, but Itay was killed by another IDF airstrike at that time. Between the two strikes, Noa says she suffered shrapnel injuries to the head and body. She also notes that food and water are running low.  https://t.me/resistmirror1/2996

Hagari "said ... Hamas’s claim that the military targeted a building where the three hostages were being held, killing two of them, was a lie. ... “Itay was not killed by our forces. This is a Hamas lie.” If the unstated part is: "we only killed Yossi then. Itay came later," then he agrees with Hamas and Noa, wordplay aside.  

Add 2/11: Eitan Levy died separately and much earlier - before Dec. 8. Not sure how he got mixed in with these reports.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-confirms-oct-7-death-of-be-eri-resident-dror-kaplun-with-archaeologists-help/ar-AA1lbCk2

"On Friday the Bat Yam municipality said Eitan Levy was dead. He was previously considered a hostage in Gaza. The municipality said it was informed Thursday night by the IDF that Levy was no longer alive. His body is held in Gaza. It was not clear how and when Levy was murdered."

Adds Feb. 11: 

Some listed as kidnapped and still alive, likely aren't, including an infant and a toddler. Embarrassingly, I had missed this story when it came up, and when I assembled this post. 

Nov 29: Hamas says 10-month-old hostage Kfir Bibas was killed in Israeli bombing, alongside his brother, Ariel (4), and their mother, Shiri, in earlier bombing. This was to explain why they weren't among those released at the time. But "Israeli authorities on Tuesday said they believed the family had been handed over by Hamas to another Palestinian militant group in a possible complication of efforts to free them." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/29/hamas-says-10-month-old-hostage-kfir-bibas-was-killed-in-israeli-bombing

As of mid-February there's been no further news to challenge the Hamas claim, and these hostages have likely been dead for some time now. They're likely included in the ~50 early deaths, but add to the 11 considered above, for 14 likely killed in known IDF operations. But that's still not accepted, as people demand Kfir be brought home, and Oct7map lists "Yarden, Shiri, Kfir and Ariel Bibas, the entire Bibas family, were all kidnapped by Hamas. Bring them home." From Nir Oz. Father Yarden was likely kept separately and likely survived, at least to then. 

I think these 2 children are the only ones Hamas still allegedly refuses to release. If so, note they already explained why they cannot ever release them, and as far as we can tell it's true.

One listed as just "murdered" was apparently killed in captivity - Ofir Tzarfati, 27 was abducted from the Nova party. He was reportedly severely wounded. "He was believed to have been kidnapped for over 50 days; it was only after his family received the devastating news that he had been murdered. A few days later, the IDF has retrieved his body in a special operation inside Gaza." https://oct7map.com/OfirTzarfati

Dec. 2: his family "was informed on Thursday that he was murdered by Hamas terrorists in the Gaza Strip." He likely died from his severe injury and lack of medical options, but that's just a guess. https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/israel-news/2243758/idf-recovers-captives-body-confirms-deaths-of-6-captives-in-gaza.html 

2 new deaths reported Feb. 11: Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip during the past 96 hours have killed two Israeli hostages and seriously injured eight others, Hamas's armed-wing Al Qassam Brigades announced on Sunday over the group's Telegram channel.

"Their conditions are becoming more dangerous in light of the inability to provide them with appropriate treatment.(Israel) bears full responsibility for the lives of those injured in light of their continued bombing," the statement said." Identities not provided.

That makes 16 and likely to grow. "Israel’s chief military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said on Tuesday that 31 of the remaining hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were dead." That's up 6 since a month ago, up 11 from mid-December - probably not counting these 2 new deaths.

اليوم الـ 128.. القسام يؤكد مقتل أسيرين وإصابة 8 آخرين : كتائب الشهيد عز الدين القسام (alqassam.ps)

https://www.arabnews.jp/en/middle-east/article_115008/

France 24 live updates for the 11th relate the claims of new deaths and notes, on the same day "Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said in an interview aired on Sunday that "enough" of the 132 remaining Israeli hostages held in Gaza are alive to justify Israel's ongoing war in the region." "We're going to try to do our best to get all those who are alive back and, frankly, also the bodies of the dead," he said in the interview with ABC's "This Week" programme." As long as this many remain alive, Israel will keep on killing them, refusing any ceasefire or concession even to save their lives, fearing that it would also spare Palestinian lives. https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240211-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-netanyahu-pledges-safe-passage-to-palestinian-civilians-ahead-of-rafah-operation

Add 2/12: Qassam brigades says three of the injured 8 hostages have now died. That would make 5 more killed. They're waiting to see who else dies before releasing the names and final statuses.  "The Al-Qassam Brigades announce the killing of 3 of the eight Zionist detainees who we announced yesterday were seriously injured in the barbaric Zionist raids on the Gaza Strip. We will postpone announcing the names and photos of the dead for days to come until the fate of the rest of the wounded becomes clear." https://t.me/resistmirror1/3927

Feb. 13 add: Two Rescued! 

Just after the above updates, I saw the big news - Israel claims to have rescued two hostages in Rafah and got them home alive, without making any deal with Hamas, and in fact killing some of their fighters, along with quite a few civilians. The rescued were named as Fernando Simon Marman (60) and Louis Har (70), who were kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak. 

As luck would have it, Israel's actionable intel and opportunity came just as they aired a Superbowl ad about bringing home hostage dads. And these two fathers had Argentinian nationality. Argentina's bizarre new Libertarian-Fascist and highly pro-Israel president Javier Milei had just visited Israel on Feb. 9, urging the release of all Israeli hostages, including the 11 Argentinians believed to be held. "Milei said he would work to bring about the release of all the hostages, regardless of nationality: “There are Argentine nationals among the hostages as well, but this is a crime against humanity, and this must be redressed.”" 

https://jewishinsider.com/2024/02/javier-milei-argentina-israel-benjamin-netanyahu-jerusalem/

These 11 included, "most famously, Shiri and Yarden Bibas and their redheaded sons Ariel, 4, and Kfir, 1." However, as noted above, that whole family, perhaps excluding Yarden, were likely killed by the IDF months ago. So there were probably 8 Argentines tops, and then 2 of them were rescued about three days later. Milei was soon thanking Israel for this feat, in even greater awe of their amazing powers. 

That's all interesting and raises vague suspicions. Nonetheless, I don't suspect the event was faked or postdated as some have argued, finding that one of the men was freed in November and/or December, or from Khan Younis instead of Rafah, or that both were freed on February 2, not 12. The latter anyway is likely a typo and the others ... something. I haven't read up on all the details, but consider: "Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said special forces broke into a second-floor apartment in Rafah under fire at 1:49 a.m. Monday, accompanied a minute later by airstrikes on surrounding areas." As if describing the same thing, Gaza's Health Ministry says at least 67 civilians were killed in Rafah airstrikes at around "2 a.m." 

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-02-12-2024-4ade5edf47711c6b0c13d1380980de2b

There are aerial thermal imaging videos of the raid and a related bomb strike that Israel has published (from various posting on X, not cited here but not hard to find). These depict complex, rescue-like movements at a certain spot in Rafah. After some flailing and then a lucky break, I was actually able to geolocate the spot, by the matching details shown below (some labels for matching details, some indicating raid details, partly from the videos and here just copied for consistency, and another 100+ matching details not indicated): 31°17'46.01"N - 34°15'24.71"E. 

https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1757383431988941274

It's near city center, not on the outskirts at all. It seems the rescue was in the middle building with a red circle where a shooter was located. The building to the north has been hit and is intensely burning (purple box). The one to the south is also bombed on its roof, perhaps twice (there seems to be a hole above, at the yellow star, just before a powerful blast is shown there). It's not clear how many civilians died in this area vs. at the refugee camp also hit that night or in any other parts of Rafah, but the overall death toll wound up over 100 and still climbing as the severely injured continued to pass away. Children are of course included once again. https://twitter.com/doamuslims/status/1756860608941641763

Regarding How the Victims were Killed, by Whom, and Why

Douma Chemical Massacre 2018 Revisited, Part 3

Adam Larson 

February 12, 2023 

(last edits 2/18)

WARNING: GRAPHIC IMAGES

The latest report from the OPCW's Investigation and Identification Team (IIT) on the 2018 Douma chemical massacre maintains the blame on Syria's government, and even offers clues to help narrow accountability efforts. It's been taken as another sound basis to pursue the 12-year regime change agenda, now by punishing the Syrian people with widening sanctions (both de jure AND de facto) for their general refusal to play along so far. This continues even as Syria reels from the massive earthquakes that killed thousands in both Government and Terrorist-held parts of Syria.

Continuing the tradition of the preceding FFM investigation, the IIT proposes a chlorine gas cylinder was dropped from a helicopter at "Location 2," impacting with a velocity too low to penetrate the ceiling but so high it blew the ceiling open much like a mortar shell would do. Then an optimally swift gas release caused acid injuries of an extreme nature, but with oddly limited visual signs, leading to a delayed-then-sudden paralysis or unconsciousness in 35 cases, when we should expect that in about zero cases. 

All these rather dubious conclusions were posed exclusively as "reasonable," as the IIT acted like every alternate explanation had been ruled out. 

My personal review tries to be open-minded, "chill," and long on concessions. Part 1 considered the alleged airdrop of the cylinder at Location 2. The best explanation remains that it was manually placed next to two existing mortar shell impacts. Part 2 went through the likely release and possible concentration of chlorine gas in Location 2, and how it could not well explain those 35 fatalities. The victims were quite possibly killed somewhere else and then arranged beneath the cylinder "impact" for an entirely staged crime scene. Nothing in the IIT report adequately addresses my arguments, although it did entertain some other theories that were suggested to them. 

All of that would mean this crime remains unsolved. And that brings us to this part 3, to explore what else might have actually happened to those people. The truth can't be known with certainty, but the available evidence reveals signs of a managed and marketed massacre of civilians, held prisoner by foreign-backed terrorists. Unusual signs suggest the toxic agent used was probably not chlorine. I propose it might have been diesel exhaust. The same signs also point to direct bondage at the time of exposure, probably in what we call a gas chamber. Finally, there's a strong case the ruling Jaysh al-Islam saw the specific victims as enemies, including a central targeted family whose members they might have kidnapped and later executed. I'm not saying they "gassed their own people."

This all runs long enough it could made into a part 3 and 4, but I feel all this needs to be seen together here, for the full impact it deserves.

A Managed Massacre Was Ruled Out?

In his IIT report review thread, OPCW coverup helper Eliot Higgins said: "some of the loudest voices in Douma denialism claim the victims were killed elsewhere and placed at the site, rather than killed by chlorine gas exposure at the site. The OPCW IIT makes clear this is a fabrication." 

How? As covered in part 2, they decided on a chlorine gas level that killed swiftly, probably based on a prior assumption the people died swiftly (circular reasoning). But that wouldn't be swift enough, so they also suggest some unexplained instant immobility making escape "impossible" and death certain. They only made a case - a possible but not a compelling one. 

But, as Higgins also noted, "The OPCW IIT again addresses the claim bodies were moved to the site at location 2, a claim from the tankies that unsurprisingly is not supported by any real evidence." He cited a passage from the report to explain. Summarized: The victims were not shot, stabbed or bludgeoned. They died around the time of the alleged chemical attack. The IIT haven't seen any videos of bodies being planted, and they never noticed any visual evidence for it. Therefore, the victims most likely died at Location 2, from chlorine exposure, as implausible as that is in reality. 

Full passage (optional):

"Finally, with regard to the alternative scenario in which the fatalities would have been killed elsewhere and subsequently moved to Location 2 in an attempt to “stage” an attack, the IIT notes that signs of blunt-force trauma or penetrating trauma are not visible in any of the fatalities observed in verified videos and images from Location 2, and that neither witnesses nor medical personnel recount observing blunt-force trauma or penetrating trauma in any of the fatalities, and that those signs are not observed in verified videos and images from Location 2 either. Furthermore, fully established rigor mortis, observed in fatalities being carried out of Location 2 in the early hours of 8 April 2018, indicates that the time since death was no more than approximately 9 to 16 hours. The IIT also notes that it did not obtain from the Syrian Arab Republic or other States Parties, nor was it able to identify, any evidence—including videos, photographs, satellite or drone imagery, open-source information etc.—which would corroborate that the aforementioned staging actions were performed at Location 2."

Now compare that to my own long-standing take: 

* I've always proposed the victims were truly dead, and were killed with a toxic gas, to explain the observed pulmonary edema and other signs. Chlorine was a distinct possibility until some signs, discussed below, pointed away from it.

* The victims were probably held in captivity, explaining the prolonged exposure to a toxic agent they never fled from, and explaining some very unusual clinical signs. 

* I noted a case of developing "tache noir" of the sclera that placed time of death pretty close to the reported one (somewhere between 7 and 9 PM), and rigor mortis always seemed to agree. Activists reported the deaths wrongly, but they got the time about right. 

* The massacre managers, aligned with approved media and medical crews (White Helmets, etc.)  did not film their massacre of the victims or their staging of the "attack" scene, or they never published the video if so. That might be why there were no videos for the IIT to see. It's not clear why the IIT would expect any different, if they actually entertained this scenario in a meaningful way. 

* There are supportive clues I and others have noted in the visual record, all of which the FFM and IIT have also seen but didn't recognize. I highly doubt they ever tried. I'll relate some of these. 

Four bodies are laid by the curb at the entrance, one of them on a stretcher, and another laid as if being carried head-first into the building, OR feet-first out of it. This looks like an interrupted body planting OR an interrupted rescue, depending. All 4 bodies are there from the first images around 10PM, and not moved until daylight next day (see here - NEW images to me = new to most). If that was an early rescue, it's strange, and it was never resumed.

At least 5 doors at Location 2 were visibly forced and/or removed (see here), reportedly by rescuers. But at least one door, just inside on the ground floor, that had many bodies behind or next to it (right), would almost have to be removed by the victims (immobilized or soon-to-be), or by some body managers. 

The bodies are seen in debatably unnatural positions - people just laid on their backs spread-eagle, etc. One victim (right) was laid by the removed door with skirts and socks askew, black soles free of dust after "walking" up those dusty stairs (but then again: knees? crawling?). Babies were left just lying there nowhere near any protective mother. Bodies were piled, left in strange poses, or re-arranged in different familial embraces, some with vanishing jewelry, as noted in Stephen McIntrye's useful timeline. 

Some bodies were seemingly piled on a rug (below, green) just inside that removed door, and the rug was dragged at an angle into the shower, presumably to aid the widespread and mysterious washing of faces and hair shortly before the first videos. We see rags, discarded gloves, even a green respirator mask likely used in that unexplained process. 

Activists had surmised and "witnesses" had claimed the victims washed their own faces before they finally couldn't move. But that's kind of absurd, and all this wet hair is seen 2.5 to 3 hours or more after their alleged deaths. 

Some victims had been coated with soot, but some of it was washed off their faces, perhaps, using soot-smeared water basins. It seems they were also trying but failing to erase the unusual yellow-brown skin discoloration  beneath that (we'll come back to this).

So to be clear, scene and body manipulation aren't certain, but they are supported as possibilities by plenty of evidence. 

It's been argued that if bodies were planted, someone in the neighborhood would almost surely witness the crime, and they would report it, perhaps with video documentation. That certainly is a risk, but an overrated one. 

This part of Douma was largely in ruins and seriously depopulated by then. It was under active bombardment that had people sheltering, and there had been orders communicated to stay inside and away from windows, due to the shelling and the toxic gas allegedly coating the whole area. Furthermore, if anyone saw the perpetrators - and were seen seeing them - they could be arrested or killed on the spot. 

We don't know where the victims would be killed. It could be somewhere inside Location 2, but there was no sign of another lethal chemical (and the evidence points away from chlorine - see below). It would probably be a remote place never tested by the OPCW, and the bodies were likely brought to Location 2 via the underground tunnels, which are big enough to allow pickup trucks. The tunnels open some 50 meters from Location 2, and the last stretch would be traveled under cover of dusk (sunset 6:59PM vs. rep. attack ~7:30, on average of a few versions). 

So it would run a risk, but no guaranteed exposure, and this does nothing to prove there was no planting. The evidence for it cannot be dismissed.

The OPCW FFM consulted some German toxicologists who doubted simple chlorine would explain the scene. The chief expert suggested on his own that the bodies could instead be part of a "propaganda exercise," offering some unspecified "elaboration." It's not clear why the OPCW was consulting "tankies" like that, but they were clearly unhappy with the results. 

Finally, grubby hands and clothing - in many but not all cases - might indicate captivity under poor conditions, which could have extended to murder. 

But whatever your doubts or questions about this circumstantial evidence, the evidence we'll consider below strongly suggests the victims were prisoners, were deliberately poisoned, and did have their bodies planted here. 

The "Mask of Death" Clues

One issue I noticed immediately was a very unusual yellow-to-brown discoloration on some of the victims' upper faces, and assorted issues in the same area of other faces. I established the basic cause quickly, as explained in some detail at the post Douma's Mask of Death (2019 re-write). I stand by that assessment, which I'll re-explain here with important expansions. 

The discolored area seems to correlate with the flow of pulmonary edema fluid, originating at the nose and mouth. They would cough this out trying to breathe, but from there it seems to flow over the face in a pattern similar to a "domino" mask. This is most evident on a woman dubbed W7 in my system (see here), also called Mask 1. She's widely seen, including in the IIT report (see below). This extract shows what should normally not be there, without the disgusting foam and terrified eyes we don't need to see here (and minus some details hidden under the foam). 

If that face gives you the spooks like it does me, realize that's not because Assad's chlorine is so especially evil. It's because part of you realizes that is truly bizarre, and something might be EXTRA-wrong here. 

I've been looking at alleged chemical attacks in Syria and associated fatalities since December 2012, and I've never seen anything else like this. But in Douma, some form of this mysterious skin effect and/or its "mask" pattern appears on some two thirds of the seen victims. I'll show some of them below. Some show it strongly and some fainty, and others not at all. But all 35 victims at Location 2, and 3 others also seen most likely suffered the same fate (as did the full reported 43 - if not even more). 

Note this discoloration is not really a stain, but rather a process inside the skin, frequently accompanied by or replaced with a rash-like irritation in the same area. It seems the edema fluid has a strange effect on the skin. We'll come back to that.

Almost all details of all cases suggest this fluid flowed primarily "up" their face from the nose and/or mouth, avoiding the chin and lower cheeks. Of course fluids can only flow down under gravity, so this requires a certain position with the victims' faces upside-down, or with their bodies fully suspended upside down at the time of exposure, presumably bound to stay that way and so they could not wipe their faces of the edema fluids, allowing for this readable pattern. 

What a terrible detail. This is not something people at liberty would be doing in their home at Location 2. Some other points in favor of this: some display cyanosis that's often worst at the upper face and ears - some burst capillaries in the face - hair needing washed along with faces.

The skin effect is deeper in areas where, it seems, the fluid moved the slowest, lingering in its contact. Here's mask 1 extract again, flipped so we can see it how gravity would have: the flow was quickest at the origin, for less staining at the mouth and nostrils, and slower where it was obstructed and piled up - intensely along her nose, and less so in a widening area "up" the mid-cheeks. The clear lines here across the cheeks and crossing at the bridge of the nose are unusual - likely straps in her case, slowing the fluid on her nose. 

But almost every case is like hers in that the color is somehow deepest right under the eyes, around the outer rims, and a bit along the top, trailing off before the middle. Finally, discoloration appears at other points including the temples and spots across the forehead, perhaps a lowest point where the fluid would pool up before dripping off, for some lingering contact there. 

Note, 2/13: to drip from these forehead points would almost require the victims were suspended upside-down AND craning their necks to face the floor (like at right, or more so). That was probably the best way to cough the fluid out, but you can see how some of it might roll "up" the face as well. I've seen boards JaI used to strap people to. These turned upside-down might explain it, or maybe leaned against the wall at an angle - whatever best explains it. And if the gas used were heavier than air, any position like this would keep their heads down in the worst of it. End note.

There are unclear cases and a few exceptions; a pregnant woman (W5), an infant girl (or toddler? G10), and a younger infant (I2) at least, seem laid just on their backs, with fluid to the sides "across" the cheeks and ears, on the back of their clothing, over the chin, and less "up" the face. We also see effects of later flow matching different body positions in Location 2 (see Mask 2), so these only testify to body arrangement after the killing.

The OPCW's early FFM final report made the briefest note of a "periorbital discoloration" which they found "is not associated with any specific known toxic exposure." It was a mystery. "To determine whether it is due to a physiologic response to exposure to a toxic substance or simply post-mortem changes would require additional steps." (8.101) It's not clear if those steps were ever taken, by them. The IIT report twice lists symptoms including "discoloration of the skin" - no longer "periorbital" - as supporting reports of a chlorine attack, and as unlikely to result from simple dust inhalation. Nothing else of what I'll cover here was even noted by either investigation.

I could find no information about chlorine discoloring the skin like this, across the upper face or anywhere. As far as I could find, there is no post-mortem "masca mortis" like this, and there's no other cause I could find or think of that wasn't some kind of strange. And an important distinction helps us get on track; the "periorbital" part is not so relevant. This is a skin effect where edema fluid ran "up" their faces, including around the eyes, in an area better called peri-periorbital. In fact, there is a total LACK of skin effect within the actual periorbital area (immediately around the eyes, or inside the eye socket). 

WARNING: GRAPHIC IMAGES BEGIN HERE

The completely clear patch immediately around the eyes has exactly the shape and size of swimming goggles, everywhere the shape can be discerned. Victim G6 aka Mask 5 is especially typical. There's usually a full and sharp outline on the bottom, where fluids rolling "up" the cheeks would accumulate against the projecting lenses, thence rolling over and around them, but more slowly. A wide backup with deep skin effect continues for the entire curve, and then there's a clear outline around the outer rim where it would flow "up," and a thinner line along the top up to the middle. Any fluids clinging to the curved rim might drip off under gravity here, or just roll up the brow quickly, leaving little sign until the forehead spots.  

The unknown agent presumably caused the pulmonary edema observed. This is usually caused by an irritant or corrosive substance - including but not limited to chlorine. Any such thing would probably affect the eyes much like chlorine would, but as I have noted in part 2, the victims' eyes totally lack redness to indicate such contact. The skin around the eyes is also unaffected, and the shape of this area suggests just how it was all shielded - with goggles. And this would explain the fluid slowdown marring the upper cheeks so badly. All these mysteries click together. 

4 other clearest examples of varied issues surrounding ovals of no such issues at right, Masks 2, 3, 5 & 6. (Examples were numbered upon identification, with #4 less clear) Images saturation and contrast enhanced to clarify, and some "smart blur" to smooth out artifacts, but nothing added. What unifies them is the shape of the affected area - widening up from the mouth and nose, and most extreme around the implied goggle lenses and the bridge of the nose where they would secure.

Mask 1 displays the colors of burning toast, and in these other cases, the mask area is filled with: yellow discoloration with a red rash surrounding it (Mask 2), skin turned almost black and seemingly hardened, perhaps with blood involved (Mask 3), vivid orange-brown surrounded by mottled and purple-shifted irritation (Mask 5), and a late-appearing red rash with just faint yellow (Mask 6). 

Several others of differing clarity were identified for a total of 11 cases I call "mask" (with #11 just now added - see below) + another 13 with no visible mask but some mixture of the related signs (called PPR) = 24. What made for Mask vs. PPR was a bit arbitrary, but 24 total out of 38 seen victims (35 from Location 2 + 3 others seen later) = almost 2/3 of them. Some of them display it mildly, others display it not at all, and some just aren't seen well enough to say. But they probably all suffered the same fate. They all suffocated, yet as far as we can see, they all have those white eyes.

We'll consider the effects in a bit more detail, but first, a few questions arise here....

Why Goggles? 

Why do I conclude they were used? The concave shape of the eye socket, the possibility of wiping or extreme squinting are among the other possibilities that could explain the lack of eye burning. But these don't seem to explain this clean and total an effect. It seems the evidence requires swimming goggles, or something of a very similar shape and similar effectiveness shielding the eyes, with enough thickness to cause the suggested fluid slow-down just "under" the eyes. Thin plastic or paper eye covers of the same size might explain it, but not as well. 

Other skin effect exclusions also seem related, maybe ways of securing the goggles with a tight fit: straps across the cheeks and crossing at the nose with Mask 1 - maybe straps up the outer cheek with the pregnant W5 and Mask 3 - some tab or lump of adhesive, perhaps, on the underside of the goggle shape (Masks 2 & 5), or the same on the top side (Mask 3). Previously I decided the goggles were not secured with the usual side straps. I revise that to say there may have been side straps, just not tight enough to the skin to interrupt the flow there.

Then a question I'll ask: Why would I want to make up something so strange?  I'm just following the evidence. Sometimes, they say fact is stranger than fiction. Maybe this is just one of those times.

Ok, it is strange, because the question is raised: Why would the killers apply eye protection to the people they were murdering? 

That's not obvious, but I have some guesses. They all stem from this crime being meant for display and propaganda - something about the visual impact it would have. Maybe the planners felt that acid-burned eyes would look wrong for a sarin-chlorine attack, for some confused reason. Maybe they wanted open eyes staring at the world for best effect, while chemical-injured eyes almost always squeeze tightly shut. One compelling and terrible possibility between those two emerged looking into events preceding this, as the ruling Jaysh al-Islam coalition was battered from Eastern Ghouta, one district after another. See blog post here for details - for just the relevant faces and a summary, see below.

* March 14, a chlorine attack in Hamouriya was reported with 2 young boys shown dead - the smaller one has tightly-closed, swollen eyes, perhaps suggesting irritant/corrosive exposure and that he wasn't given any goggles. The older boy's eyes look fine. No better detail seen. No CW fatalities listed by (now-defunct) VDC for this day. Opposition forces fled from Hamouriya by March 17 (per this map). If they had any civilian prisoners they didn't feel like transporting or setting free, they might kill them in the last days, just for convenience and minor propaganda points.

* Further back, one I just now ran across (not included in the linked post). February 19, a young child "killed in today’s heavy airstrikes on the rebel-held city of Douma" - infant with oral foam and swollen-looking eyes - blood on the face that is likely someone else's (it's a very bloody morgue scene). A uniform yellow skin color might suggest a prior illness, not directly related. No VDC database to check anymore. No chemical attack on this date had popped up in my earlier looks. No one was fleeing Douma yet.

https://twitter.com/sakirkhader/status/965722168427466753

* Then the one that stood out: A March 17 shelling attack in Ain Tarma got confused with a "chlorine attack" in Douma, but just the "shelling" is listed as leaving 3 children dead - likely of a Tarablisi family displaced from Jobar, as listed by the VDC. "Displaced" has often seemed to be code for "kidnapped," and Ain Tarma fell to Syrian forces after March 18 but before the 28th. Two older girls have signs of cyanosis, yellow suffocating foam, yellow or brown fluids on their clothing. One has open white eyes, but there's no visible staining to trace out any goggles they wore, or any fluid pattern. A baby boy shown with them clearly did NOT have goggles - he has red, raw, tightly-closed, badly swollen eyes, with separately burned eyelids,... cyanosis, with purple lips and upper face, white mucous or foam in the mouth and nose - dries yellow residue all over his face from the nose up, some fluid with a brown edge on his cheek (possibly blood-tinged mucous) - irritation but no yellow or brown staining of the skin.

Sorry, but it seemed worth showing all 3 puffy-eyed child martyrs:

There are various other causes for each of these signs that could, hypothetically, result from prior circumstances and the complex and variable event called "shelling." Two of these anyway were not supposed to be chemical attacks, and none of them is clear on being one. None of these clearly matches the effect seen with the April 7 chemical massacre, and they differ intriguingly with regard to eyes. But they're similar to what happened, with the suffocating edema and skin and eye irritation, and very close in time and space. 

This occular issue doesn't appear that I've seen with older children or adults. Any of them that were secretly gassed may have already been given eye protection. Perhaps the killers just didn't have any goggles in the smaller size these tykes would need. It could be these babies, especially the last one, were such horrible sights that the massacre planners finally located some protection in their size before trying the same thing again with a bigger number of victims.

Could Chlorine Explain the Mask?

The "Mask of Death" skin effect, again, is not evident in those last 3 faces or anywhere else I've seen, but it was widespread at Location 2. This effect is nowhere in the literature on chlorine, which produces hydrochloric (and hypochlorous) acid on contact with water. The only skin color it usually causes is that of the blood flushing the skin - regular irritation. And it happens wherever it contacts, not in a special area of the upper face. 

Closest matches: Chlorine gas can stain things its own yellow-green color, as seen at Location 4, but not a golden yellow or orange-brown. I've read reports (Hurst?) of some soldiers killed in WWI with faces stained chlorine color after a long stay in a dense cloud of the stuff. It's not something I've heard of anywhere else, and it would probably be all across the face and exposed skin, not in a mask shape like we see. 

Concentrated chlorine, as seen dripping on a pillow at location 4, does also oxidize to brown. The whole bed there gets stained green by the gas, and it all shifts brown. I haven't read about brown faces in WWI, but ... 

Considering all that, maybe it was the same blamed gas. If I were to learn chlorine can do this, as well as what's described below, then it could have been the poison after all. The mask shape would be chlorine in the air reacting with edema fluids flowing "up" the face, with all the points above: victims seemingly in captivity, upside-down in googles, with chlorine in the gas chamber. That's still not the reported story at Location 2. 

A Xanthoproteic Process?

But even then, there would be a contender, that for the moment stands alone as a specific, plausible explanation. This exact kind of skin discoloration is a classic effect of Nitric Acid. When it comes in contact with "aromatic amino acids," nitric acid (hereafter NA) initiates a "xanthoprotein reaction" (or "xanthoproteic reaction") - hereafter "XP reaction." 

The XP reaction is used in a laboratory setting as a test for amino acids; in a positive test, the solution turns from yellow to orange. https://warbletoncouncil.org/reaccion-xantoproteica-10005 It's also an effect of NA that just happens on the skin or anything with the right kind of proteins. It's most commonly seen in humans with accidental exposure to liquid NA, which has various industrial, chemical and military uses. 

As far as I know there might be 5 other chemical explanations, but I could find none yet. Here I'll relate why this fits the bill for the Location 2 fatalities. (also: I'm crowd-sourcing additional references and knowledge, be it pro, con, or whatever, or to propose an alternative cause - comments are open.) A few online sources give details matching what's seen in Douma:

The xanthoprotein reaction:

* stains the skin yellow and produces deep, painful burns

* causes mild irritation

* causes hardening of the skin

* When in contact with the eyes it is possible that severe burns and permanent damage result.

https://www.reference.com/science-technology/nitric-acid-stain-skin-yellow-9475502370e787b5

* causes "specific yellow- to brown-stained wounds with slower accumulation of eschar and slower demarcation compared with thermal burns."

The nitric acid burn trauma of the skin - PubMed (nih.gov)

* "Chemical skin burns induced by nitric acid initially showed a bright yellow to brown 

staining with surrounding red and oedematous swelling" 

sciencedirect.com

* A progression of the effect over time, with irritation deepening and color shifting from yellow to brown

A case study with example images - paywalled: I lost the copy I had, but this image can be shared. Victim splashed with liquid NA, direct skin contact - probably not what we see in Douma. The victim washed early, and effect initiated by then is mostly mild - just a golden yellow color, mainly around the facial hair where it might linger. A more brown color, albeit faint, can be seen at the forehead and presumably on the scalp - maybe he didn't rinse as well here and had wet, partly contaminated hair over his forehead for a while, for longer contact. Other areas show red irritation, maybe with slight hardening. White patches are probably from a topical treatment.

See also The Nitric acid burn trauma of the skin - Journal of Plastic, Reconstructive & Aesthetic Surgery (jprasurg.com) and limited  abstracts: semanticscholar.org/ - sciencedirect.com/  Several cases of accidental exposures to liquid NA are described. Photos show "IIa-b chemical burn on day 1 with relatively pale staining" vs. "intensified yellow-brown staining" seen on day 2 (unclear if this is 24 hours after exposure, less than that, or more than that). This is from brief exposure with early treatment, maybe slowing the effect. A shoulder is shown with small liquid splashes all over, but connected by a burnt line along a shoulder seam that held more soaked-in liquid next to the skin, and it gets worse at the underarm creases. 

Some cases in Douma show a widening and deepening of the skin effects over time quite similar to this, but seemingly faster from a lack of early management: clear-looking areas grow an irritated red, red areas turn yellow, yellow ones shift to orange and brown, and brown to darker brown. 

Time-frame (approximate, worth refining): death rep. around 7:30 or as I found sometime between 7:00 and 9:00 - first seen 10:15-11 pm, then around 1 am, maybe later in the dark hours, in some inside view after sunrise and up to mid-day - then some bodies are seen outside Location 2 mid-day, including 12:30-1pm, then inside the tunnels, and finally at an underground collection spot near medical point 1, between 5 and 6pm. Some are seen for nearly 24 hours after death before being taken off to a secret burial.

Mask 1, icky foam included, specific areas compared: 

Here the expansion and deepening of the color are quite evident in images taken hours apart, but all at Location 2 (to pin down: best estimate of time between images). This victim is one of the few that's never seen again after the bodies were moved mid-day on April 8. The latest view is probably 14-18 hours after death. Again, the clear stripe in the middle of this is probably where a tight strap ran across her cheek. Also less affected: an odd spot on her nose might testify to other masking, or to something randomly stuck on there, shielding the skin from most of the fluid - even at the end it's partly unaffected.  

Her exceptionally dark pattern color suggests she had the fluid left on her face longer than most. Killed earlier? No. Observe - her face is in a similar position to what it was in bondage, so new foam here at Location 2 flows "up" her face in about the same way, adding to the earlier mask pattern in a way that perhaps no others do. By having "more of the same," she clarifies what they all had to start with, when they were killed.

Mask 2: 

2 views inside Location 2: early with almost no visible mask, but it's strong by the yellow-tinted photo - probably later, around noon, and different camera & lighting as well). 1 view outside with advanced mask, just before the dried foam cone was hosed away. In 2 PM views at Location 1, it's stronger yet. Last view is ~20-23 hours after death, and a bit longer since the skin exposure began. Note the later flow from the corner of the mouth sat longer than the original up-the-face fluid, for deeper brown stains along the edge vs. a deep-looking upper cheek burns just hitting the yellow-orange stage ... and one hopes he was upside down for less than the 15 hours before they hosed that foam away. 

Mask 6/G10 ("G9" in error): 

Just irritation, appearing late but aggressive, especially at a chin scratch, a cheek spot - discoloration strongly at the yellow left earlobe, just faintly on the face. No visible foam/fluids, and no additional skin effect to go with its flow. Location 2 views are hours apart - one well before 1 am and one well after (it was around 1am that she was picked up by a White Helmets "rescuer" for a photo opportunity, moved a few feet, and set back down on top of other bodies). Left view enhanced for best view of any issues - almost zero aside from that earlobe, faint pink at the chin scratch. Later: orange earlobe, faint yellow, intense rash filling in a partial mask pattern. Time frame: same as above.

M1: alleged survivor Nasr al-Hanan claims this is his brother Hamzah, whom he watched washing his face at the sink before he collapsed, at least 3 hours before this view with wet hair. He was left in a strange pose. Nasr showed a cell phone image taken later. I caught this late, not included in Mask of Death post, but he fits, with brownish color at the upper lip where his last foam had pooled up, and the usual area on the nose and upper cheeks, below unaffected, open, all-white eyes. He's Mask #11 then (unless I revise and demote #10, or #9 - both are kind of weak). Timespan unclear.

Mask 5 progression is shown below. Others also show some deepening of the effect, but let's move on. 

Compression and hardening of the skin also occurs with the XP reaction, and this is seen in at least some of the Douma victims with the more advanced effect. There is some indication with Mask 1, especially on the ring above the left eye, but it's more evident with mask 5, a girl, and mask 2, a boy.

Mask 5/G6 (left): sunken appearance, orange color fading to brown at the upper boundary below the eyes, but not past that line - seemingly pressing blood from the capillaries to create a mottled flushing of the cheeks well below the orange patch, outside of a wide ring of pallor along the mask's edge. Mask 2/B6 (right): deep yellow coloration under the eyes, perhaps blistered out, but likely compressed - a flushed area just below, with an extra-red band along the mask's edge, just overlapping the yellow - Some brown patches near the mouth appear sunken, with a narrow band of squeezed pallor separating them.

And note in these 2 cases that whatever the effect, it remains in the surface affected area and not in unaffected areas - blood is displaced mainly into tissue that's already flushed, with little to no creep into the undamaged skin. Clear skin is found lower on the face, sporadically in the middle, and inside those perfect goggle outlines. The boy has one spot of yellow beginning under his right eye, probably from after the goggles were removed, and nothing else inside those rims.

Finally, some points on the edema fluids that seemingly caused this.

IIT 6.105 "...some of the secretions observed were also pinkish/brown in colour, which is likely due to a combination of blood-tinged sputum and changes in its colour due to the time elapsed between when the exposure occurred and when the fatalities were documented."

FFM: "Some of the secretions also have an additional light brown colour, which is similar in appearance to gastric contents or blood tinged sputum." 

Perhaps all of it is the relevant yellow-brown; white foam is more an optical effect of many reflective bubbles than it is the true color. Collapsed to liquid, this can be seen on faces and the floor in golden yellow, brownish yellow and brown states. Fluid by victim B4 at least does include blood (it's seen on his face later), but most don't seem to. This is quite possibly from the XP reaction with proteins in the mucous. It may happen slower than it does in the skin. Mask 5/G6 has skin change drastically, as her pool of edema fluid expands but barely changes color from golden yellow. Mask 1 foam collapses for less glare, but also seems brown-shifted in the late view.

This is a detailed process that is not known to result from chlorine exposure. 

Diesel Exhaust? 

The evidence could suggest poisoning directly with pure liquid Nitric Acid, in a breathable vapor. But that might cause a quicker and bloodier death than we see. The NA was more likely produced secondarily to - for example - inhaling airborne NOx. NOx refers to nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2), one of which turns to the other in rapid order. NOx creates nitric acid on contact with water. This is much like what chlorine does, but it's a different acid with different effects. The suggested skin contact is with NA only in a dilute form, in the edema fluids that were coughed up, but likely reacting further with particles still in the air. Eye contact, again, seems absent.

Atmospheric NOx can have many plausible sources, but perhaps most commonly, it comes from diesel exhaust. This is generated automatically as waste by all kinds of vehicles and machinery that burn diesel oil as fuel. Just fill the tank, turn the key, and the exhaust can be piped into a sealed room full of people.

The Nazis used this method in some of their extermination camps, including Belzec, Sobibor, and Treblinka. As I've had explained to me, the diesel used then produced enough carbon monoxide that it was the primary cause of death in those gas chambers. As I gather, modern diesel produces much less CO and would, most likely, kill more slowly with the NOx it also produces. 

I'm no expert, but Diesel exhaust also seems a likely source for the black, sooty residue seen heavily on some victims. At right: Infant I2, seen above, embraced by a sooty water basin, here at Location 1 much later, with some developing rash on the nose, upper cheeks, at some cheek scratches. This baby looks like someone who climbed up a chimney. Others who don't look like that could just be the ones suspended across the gas chamber, further from the exhaust pipe. 

Impurities in diesel exhaust might also add to the viscosity of pulmonary edema fluids. The FFM had noted an unusually persistent foam in some cases. Mask 5 as shown above has foam that collapses into a gummy residue, almost like artificial whipped cream. Mask 2/B6 as seen here, B1 more notably, and several others have the foam dry into a cone that never collapses and had to be hosed away the next day.

Note 2/13: The basement at Location 2 might be worth another look. There was a sooty area, some details I forget, and would the OPCW even see diesel exhaust in their tests, or consider it an issue?

A New Method?

Again, I've never seen anything like this before. It may have been a new method with unexpected results. Consider: This appears alongside sarin claims that fell apart. Maybe they still had some sarin, had meant to kill the victims with it, and/or spike the scene with it. But say it was blown up en route, along with its handlers, amid Jaysh al-Islam's general military rout. If so, they might rig up a diesel exhaust gas chamber, and then find out about this downside later. Last-minute improvisation seems likely all around, and might explain a lot of the exposed seams. 

Or maybe it was a known method, one used before less visibly, but some additional mistakes or developments messed it up here. For example, the gas chamber might have been damaged by shelling, delaying body removal and cleanup. And there are other possibilities, of course including that I'm completely off base.

It could well be another agent than diesel caused the NA. Maybe there was no NA and there's another explanation for the process we see. Perhaps there's another way to explain the skin effect, the flow pattern and/or the exclusions. But so far only one proposed scenario actually explains all this evidence.

When they stopped moving, I suppose the victims had their goggles and binding removed, were initially washed, and found to look fine. They were transported to Location 2, probably by truck via the underground tunnels, then carried and arranged inside. The chlorine cylinder was placed then if it wasn't already, and the valve was opened however it was, filling the site and leaving a chemical footprint. 

The gas release may have been rushed, causing the last body movers to drop and leave 4 bodies at the entrance because the gas cloud was coming. Maybe the mysterious 8 bodies of the reported 43 were simply in the bed of a pickup truck when the work team fled the scene. 

The process might have been rushed due to that deepening skin reaction - it looked wrong and was getting worse. Even then, by the time the gas was thin enough to work the scene again, W7 and B3 looked terrible and others were getting there. They tried and found it did not wash off, so the first photo shoot was rushed before they looked even worse, and included wet hair on most victims. Then some later views look worse anyway. 

Review of OPCW Consideration

I don't expect to convince many people, or any of the coverup helpers, of this exact hypothesis. They can confidently assume the features noted must have another explanation, even if none is evident. Like everything else, from the cylinder "impact" forward, it "must be" whatever allows a definite Syrian regime chlorine attack that's fit to impose new sanctions over.

But OPCW investigations never explained any of the related mysteries I've correlated here. The FFM considered the "periorbital discoloration" to be a mystery seemingly unrelated to chlorine. To find out what it was "would require additional steps" they probably never took before the IIT presented skin discoloration as probably some kind of chlorine effect after all. They listed it that way twice, alongside miosis, which also has nothing to do with chlorine. 

The IIT report's figure 6 shows a baby, a boy and a woman killed, labeled "PERSONS WHO DIED AS A CONCEQUENCE OF BEING EXPOSED TO CHLORINE." End "fact." The pixelated vs. clear areas indicate they want to show us clouded white eyes and edema foam, and perhaps the discoloration as well.

Shown: mask 6, mask 2, mask 1 with signs more consistent with death involving nitric acid instead of chlorine (which produced hydrochloric acid), and exceptionally clear mask patterns showing they died under bondage in a story the FFM/IIT "witnesses" - White Helmets and otherwise - would likely have known, but never told them about. 

But why would the "rebels" gas "their own people?"

Thought-impaired critics reflexively ask this, assuming the answer and assuming a faulty premise that the people running Douma at the time cared about the victims, considering them "their own." But in fact, the ruling militants of Jaysh al-Islam ("Army of Islam" - hereafter JaI) may have murdered some of their enemies among the Syrian people here, people whom the OPCW's flawed investigations claim to champion.

It's worth relating some backstory that, for a few paragraphs, might seem unrelated. I've never researched this deeper than presented here: Bakriyeh Family Deaths for a clunky, fuller explanation of what I summarize below, with sources linked. I probably have a few less-relevant details wrong. Feel free to read up double check me or learn more.

Jaysh al-Islam started out of Douma in 2011 as Liwa al-Islam ("Banner of Islam" - LaI), supported by Saudi Arabia to hopefully lead a march on Damascus and to head up a new government. They gained fame for some assassinations in mid-2012, and grew to control Douma by year's end, amid grisly and contested massacres. From this base they expanded across the Eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus and into the city too (Jobar). Along the way, they absorbed other groups until, in the Fall of 2013, LaI became the head part of the larger Jaysh al-Islam coalition. 

Just like its head, JaI was known as brutal, repressive, and anti-democratic. JaI was almost certainly behind the December, 2013 abduction & later killing of the "Douma 4" - local activists, including Razan Zaitouneh, who had criticized abuses of the militia and its founding leader Zahran Alloush. Alloush was the son of a preacher exiled in Saudi Arabia. He had openly expressed sectarian and genocidal views, promising to "cleanse" Syria of Alawites, Shi'ites, and people of Iranian ancestry. He walked those comments back, but LaI/JaI kidnapped civilians on sectarian lines by the thousands. In Adra alone, early December 2013, they teamed up with Al-Qaeda franchise Jabhat al-Nusra to commit a grisly massacre of unclear size, and then a mass kidnapping of several hundred (maybe over 1,000) mostly Alawite citizens. JaI kept the captives in squalid conditions and used them at will. They openly placed women in cages on rooftops to deter airstrikes, and used men for slave labor. Some died while digging a famed "tunnel city" beneath Douma and much Eastern Ghouta. 

These and other captives before and since may also have been killed at will to flesh out allegations, like the August 2015 Douma market "attack" (112 killed, almost all of them adult males) and the August 2013 Ghouta chemical massacre of several hundred (2021 Ghouta reports). Whatever all they did, it was met with occasional muted criticism from Western Human Rights groups and nothing from hostile governments, except maybe to blame some of their biggest crimes on the Syrian state. 

Jaysh al-Islam proudly opposed the Syrian government and ISIS, the Islamic State, claiming they were secret allies (along with Iran and the "Mahjoos" and maybe even the Israeli Jews). Besides that 2-front war, fought alongside Jabhat al-Nusra, and another waged on civilians they considered apostate ... and another on opposition activists who opposed them ... some of Jaysh al-Islam's endless struggles were with other Sunni Muslim opposition fighters. 

As they expanded from 2011 onward, they variously allied with, displaced, absorbed, or crushed other opposition groups. And sometimes they pushed it too far. The biggest rebellion JaI faced was called Jaysh al-Umma - Army of the Muslim Community (as opposed to the more abstract Islam). This was led by a prominent group called Douma Martyr's Brigade (DMB), but included others who had had enough. It ran at a low boil from September 2014 until Jaysh al-Islam formally declared war on the rebels in January 2015. They wiped out the rebellion in a few days of this, perhaps with Saudi intelligence help. 

Jaysh al-Umma fighters and leaders, of various original groups, were amnestied and re-absorbed, killed, arrested then killed, or left scattered in hiding. Those who escaped the purge stopped rebelling at all, and sided with the Syrian government in its fight against the Islamist monster ruling Douma and E. Ghouta. That's not a flattering story for the Jaysh al-Islam "freedom fighters" or the Saudi Kingdom backing them. It seems JaI were just too effective and too ruthless for their own good. 

Others whom Zahran Alloush rubbed the wrong way likely helped betray his position so the Syrian air force was able to kill him and several top commanders on December 25, 2015. Jaish al-Islam carried on with its control of Eastern Ghouta until the offensives of early 2018 whittled that down to Douma and then nothing. But Alloush's death seems to mark the start of a long slide from quite a height of power they held in 2014.

The Douma Martyr's Brigade was led during the rebellion by Majid Khayba. He took the helm 5 months earlier when its founding leader, Omar Diab Bakriyeh, was killed in fighting. When only those who cooperated with Jaysh al-Islam were allowed to exist, DMB cooperated. But Bakriyeh reportedly died in clashes with the Syrian army on April 4, 2014, when his JaI allies failed to get reinforcements to him in time. Or maybe their men got there and killed him. And maybe there wasn't even a battle that day. The true story can't be known. 

On the same day, 4/4/14, one Amjad Diab Bakrieh from Douma - the commander's likely brother by matching middle and last names names - was reportedly killed in unrelated "shelling." (an Arabic middle name is usually the father's first name). Bakriyeh is a rare local name. Per the database of the Douma-based VDC (now defunct), only two people named Bakriyeh had been killed in the whole Syrian  conflict from 2011 to then. It doubled to 4 that day. And from such a small pool, how many men named Diab Bakriyeh were there to have sons killed on the same day? Probably just one. This smells of family targeting, papered over with some falsified reporting.

After Bakriyeh's death, Majid Khayba took the helm at DMB until he was arrested and executed in 2015 following the rebellion. The open friction leading to that was yet to come when Bakriyeh was slain, but that might play in. Beyond his brother, the commander 's wider family might eventually be seen as targets, especially if other relatives continued annoying JaI. And that could matter since the OPCW's Location 2 with the 35 bodies was reportedly a home of several Bakriyeh families. As some media reports noted and as the Douma-based VDC listed them, 11 of the identified 35 fatalities were named Bakriyeh. With relations not all clear ("maiden" names are kept in marriage), some other victims will surely be related, and it could be that most or all of them were related. 

Commander Omar Diab Bakriyeh would likely have a son named Diab, in honor of his own father. But then so might any of his brothers. So these 2 girls found at Location 2 could be the commander's granddaughters or grand-nieces: Jouri Diab Bakriyeh (Child - Female), Qamar Diab Bakriyeh (Adult - Female). Others might relate, but middle names are left off in most cases.

It's not a common name. Including these 11, the VDC martyr's database listed a total of 17 Bakriyehs killed in the conflict from 2011 to 2018. Another source adds one more for 18. All but one clearly hailed from Douma, and the other likely does. Some 2/3 of them allegedly died under that one chlorine cylinder.

Side-note, optional: What seem to be two other relatives are telling. The VDC listed a Fahid Mohammad Dyab Bakrieh killed 3-23-2012, adult male, age 22, from Douma. Notes: "shot in the heart by a sniper's gunfire" - presumably a regime sniper, except that allegation is always dubious. Dual middle name makes the father clear, and commander Omar was also called "Abu Fahed." His son here was likely the main namesake of the Martyr's brigade as it set out rebelling, ultimately on 2 fronts. And this means at least 3/4 of the first Bakriyeh deaths were probably all related. Maybe it's 4/4. Then on April 14, 2018 - just a week after the chemical massacre, as it happens - a probable nephew of the fallen commander, Mustafa Muhammad Diab Bakiriyeh, from Douma, was killed fighting on the Aleppo front and/or with an "Aleppo Front" (Jabhat al-Halab), apparently allied with the Syrian Arab Army. Times change.

Let's return now to those two likely mortar shell impacts on the balcony at Location 2 (see part 1 as needed). The obvious culprits of this explosive shelling would be the Syrian Arab Army, but that's not so certain. Syrian forces engaged militants in a police and then military fashion only until October 2012 (IIRC), when they gave up on trying to control Douma. They probably engaged in some shelling then, but I don't think they ever got back in at short-range mortar distance of this building even at the end in 2018. I think SAA was fighting only on the outskirts of Douma, to the south and maybe east, when the surrender came down. As noted in part 1, the balcony damage suggests those shells came from the north, at a relatively short range. That is the SAA might be ruled out, meaning this damage had to come from opposition infighting.   

For example: following the crushed Jaysh Al-Umma uprising, Jaysh Al-Islam might have put out a fatwa (religious decree) ordering the arrest of the whole Bakriyeh family. Or maybe it came earlier, helping to spark that uprising. It could be some were nabbed at their various homes, but here at Location 2, the greatest number of Bakriyehs lived, alongside in-laws and maybe some family friends. Perhaps an armed few of them put up resistance when JaI came to take them.

A family sniper may have been holding attackers at bay up on that balcony and/or the room below. A larger punched hole (white box) allows for a limited but protected view, and maybe room for a rifle barrel to poke through. The NE corner next to that was unusually free of fragmentation marks (tan box). The shooter might have been there when the corner shell arrived, and his (or her?) body absorbed all the shrapnel directed into this corner. 

And at any rate, that's one possible cause that might relate to the fate of the families living there -  not because the chlorine cylinder landed there but because that's when they were kidnapped, after their defenders lost a fight. As far as I know, there's no clear evidence for or against that - nothing to prove they had been at liberty in their homes until that night, or to prove they were imprisoned. But they might have been held captive ever since, along with others captured before and after, coming to include all those faces we would see dead in 2018.

Perhaps the name link has no relevance to the Douma massacre, and true story is another one we don't know. But then this other story might be similar anyway, given the circumstances. And considering the probable staging of those cylinders, and that the victims were apparently killed under direct bondage, the finger of blame would best point to the brutal and deceptive maniacs in charge of Douma at the time.

But why would they gas even their enemies in such a brazen manner? 

To start, they would face almost no risk of exposure from Western and allied governments (including Suadi Arabia) or the international agencies, NGOs, mass media, and millions of private minds they exert control over. There would be very little risk to such a venture, and some potential gains. 

As they faced a final defeat even in Douma, JaI might pin some hopes on a Hail Mary move, a gamechanger to actually reverse that. The first reports on April 7 had a rising death toll stopping at 180-190 killed in what seemed a massive chlorine-sarin attack. Everyone who mattered initially reported this version, and 187 killed by chlorine AND sarin was later "confirmed" by some informed insiders (these death toll disagreements were ignored by the FFM/IIT as if they were obviously some simple confusion). 187 would be easily the second biggest CW death toll in Syria, trailing far behind Ghouta 2013. That's consistent with a serious try at a strong international reaction that might force the Syrian government to stop or be too distracted - or maybe even destroyed by massive airstrikes - to finish their push on Douma. 

Up to 200 dead from sarin is why Donald Trump launched his limited airstrikes - as he had done almost exactly one year earlier - just as OPCW investigators arrived. In the end it didn't bail the "Army of Islam" out of imminent defeat, but it might have seemed worth a try, 

The chemical "attack" and more dead babies certainly put a taint on Syria's final victory in Douma. And on the flip-side, it was a huge PR boost as a consolation prize for the defeated Islamists. Instead of simply being defeated and surrendering, they made a show of defiance and even provocation until the April 7 "chlorine attack," and only then agreed to surrender, as they said, to prevent a repeat and "save lives." 

Furthermore, Jaysh al-Islam members knew they would probably be taking a green bus to Idlib soon. They would have their families and some belongings, maybe allowed one pistol for self-defense but no heavy weapons, and certainly no kidnapped people. Part of the deal was that prisoners would be set free ... unless of course they were killed and buried first. A lucky 200 were released, but an unexplained 3,000 or so were NOT released as promised. These had probably been killed off over time, including at that last chance in April. 

If the scenario above were true, the decision-makers probably would not want the Bakriyeh prisoners released to tell their terrible part of an ultimately embarrassing story - how Zahran Alloush, Jaysh al-Islam and the Saudis ruined the rebellion in Damascus with their unhinged and unchecked brutality. And that might be why they were picked for poisoning and then brought back home one last time for a sick little PR stunt - used to people JaI's "chlorine attack" site.

This may be some of Jaysh al-Islam's brutality that still goes unchecked - and pointedly so - by "OSINT" hero Eliot Higgins. He leans and drools on the FFM and IIT findings, which he might have helped to shape with some heralded-then-denied "collaboration." He helps the IIT elevate the regime-blaming option with junk science and displays of confidence, with some permissible facts mixed in. They've got this piled atop all the other dismissed possibilities, almost surely including the actual truth. And so they just might assist - perhaps unintentionally - in a coverup of this hideous and reasonably well-illustrated Islamist massacre. 

I'll let Higgins have the last word, where he urges his readers - and now mine - "Just remember who was behind spreading and promoting these lies about a horrific war crime."