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Thursday, April 12, 2018

Douma CW Massacre: Victim Analysis

Alleged Chemical Attack in Douma, April 7, 2018:
Victim Analysis
April 12, 2018
(rough, incomplete)
last edits May 18

Sub-posts
* Douma's Mask of death Part 1
* The Mysterious Washing of Faces and Hair
* First Thoughts, etc.
* See-sawing death toll reports
* Bakriyeh Family Deaths
...

Mapping the Victims
Victim arrangement, reference numbers, as first seen, by floor plan - a lot can be noted here, especially the peculiar victim clustering. Major areas just aren't shown, as they film 35 bodies everyone can find this easily in a few clusters and a few just on their own a bit off to the side. This compares to a reported 35 victims found dead at the site; all are arranged within easy view of a roving camera or, alternately, within easy reach of people planting the bodies, whose arms were getting tired...


then this toxic fog would have to creep into the second floor areas and spread as suggested (not drawn in), while more yet would have to pour down another level ...

...and then spread out and kill on floor 1 as suggested. At each level, it has to roll low enough that not much leaks from the open grated windows across most of the stairwell's outer wall.

...and after the main floor, some fog would have to creep out into the street, and some back into the basement, if anyone there was to smell it, panic, and run to the upper levels, as some report. Some must have sunk here eventually for Swedish TV4's reporter to smell it strongly days later.  Apparently no victims were found down here, but a few are nearby on the street just outside. But the basement is not shown in any night-time images, to prove it was empty or otherwise.

M5 on the stretcher - this can clearly suggest he and the very dusty M4 next to him were brought here, from 2 different places. M4 does seem to have a different story from the rest here, but M5 could belong, as the woman and girl outside seem to. Maybe he was put on a stretcher as if to evacuate him, but then they got side-tracked... it's actually hard to say.
...
Still just 35 victims seen, 36 named
The VDC's martyrs database has 99 total Douma civilians killed on April 7, 85 from gas, just 14 from bombing. This number started smaller with hardly any identified, but grew and got more names over the following days. 49 of the 85 remain unidentified, all listed as men (which is also the default - it can mean blank/no entry). All 14 bombing deaths are also unidentified, listed as men. That's an unusual level of vagueness across two classes of victims.

In fact there was at first one identified entry amon the first 50 CW deaths (a man by name as well, first entry), and exactly 35 with names and genders were added seemingly all at once in a later batch.

Ignoring the one man and looking at thee 35, there are:
9 listed as men, 16 as women, 8 as girls, 2 as boys.
From those shown on video, I have 5 men, 9 women, 10 girls, 6 boys, one unclear (prob. woman - dressed in black) and 4 infants, 1 of which is clearly a girl (so 11 girls, 3 unclear infants).

I know some reported girl victims (Khaled Nuseir's named, young daughters) are listed as women of the same names, no ages given, so apparently in error (on someone's part - probably the VDC), likely the same with boys. But just by gender, it seems VDC refers to this same batch of 35
12 males and 24 females named, vs. 20+ F, 11+ males seen on video, and a suggestion that all 3 unclear infants are female. Maybe that's too exact a reading, but either way, it seems the same 35 we saw is the same 35 they got names for. One other man was already named, and 49 blank entries still sit there (were those just rumored deaths?)

36 ID entries
# name - gender - notes - VDC ID#
1 Mohammad Shihab - Civilian - Adult - Male - 199916
2 Amoun Mohammad Dhaher - Adult - Female - 199966
3 Rawdheh Toumeh - Adult - Female - 199967
4 Mohammad Tawfeq Bakriyeh - Adult - Male
5 Rateb Bakriyeh - Adult - Male
6 Taqa Hanan - Adult - Female - 199970
7 Asia Hanan - Child - Female
8 Jana Hanan - Child - Female
9 Amira Hammo - Adult - Female
10 Sarah al-Tabbakh - Adult - Female
11 Rahaf Bakriyeh - Child - Female
12 Jouri Diab Bakriyeh - Child - Female
13 Hadeel Bakriyeh - Adult - Female
14 Mohammad Rateb Bakriyeh - Adult - Male
15 Insaf al-Hallaq - Adult - Female
16 Haytham Bakriyeh - Adult - Male
17 Hanadi Bakriyeh - Adult - Female
18 Qamar Diab Bakriyeh - Adult - Female
19 Ali Bakriyeh - Adult - Male
20 Jouri Bakriyeh - Adult - Female
21 Ghadah Hammo - Adult - Female
22 Mohammad al-Sheikh - Adult - Male
23 Hamzeh Hanan: Adult - Male - Marital Status: Unknown - 199987
24 Fatmeh Qarouq - Adult - Female - Marital Status: Unknown - 199988
25 Israa Toumeh - Adult - Female - 199989
26 Mahmoud al-Sheikh - Adult - Male
27 Joud Al-Sheikh - Child - Female
28 Yousef al-Sheikh - Child - Male
29 Nada al-Sheikh - Child - Female
30 Qamar Nsair - Adult - Female - 199994
31 Nour Nsair - Adult - Female - 199995
32 Hiba al-Shaikh - Child - Female - 200008 (note: pause from last # to add 13 entries - including this guy)
33 Jodi al-Shaikh - Child - Female - 200009
34 Hasan al-Shaikh - Child - Male - 200010
35 Walid Zohair Raslan - Adult - Male - 200011
36 Sara Hisham al-Smadi - Adult - Female - Marital Status: Married - Notes: Wife of Walid Zohair Raslan - 200012




19 comments:

  1. I've been looking through the videos with the camo-wearing father and seen the argument JaI would never do anything to "their own families". Are there any signs they are JaI relatives? Do we know anything about the local tunnel network and why militant families wouldn't be sheltering from airstrikes in those tunnels instead?

    No-one seems worried about handling the bodies- they have no worries about nerve agents? Chlorine 'mixture' has historically ended up as sarin and there is the cylinder with one end blackened: could this be the 'black sarin' or burned?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. when they say "our family" it underlines how it's probably not. The records so far suggest the people were not identified at the time, only slowly and partly identified now.

      No gloves on that guy carrying the girl, and that's just one example. Correct there.

      The black sarin thing, good q. It looked more like smoke residue, and the white dust, in an order I'd need to consider more, and some light rain since then. The blackish stuff lined to some sarin events is kind of oily, and this stuff didn't look that way so far. But I'll be reviewing things.

      Delete
    2. The US/France/UK revealed intel seems to point to another unseen M4000-esque nerve agent 'barrel bomb' no-one seems to be able to find. Perhaps the M is for Morad.

      "One said the gas smelt like car batteries." - I thought this was interesting. I can't see the OPCW finding anything that goes against a nerve agent (as West has already bombed) but if the story is true about the fire what else could this be.. an electrical fire?

      Delete
    3. Related - SAA reaction, points out they don't have gas masks

      https://youtu.be/qd2Cds0OlZI?t=1559

      Delete
    4. BBC videos, story of the family in the washing video

      https://drive.google.com/open?id=1fADUJ4snIAhXLO8058PT1LzSZVWH_DCu

      https://drive.google.com/open?id=15e17QgCorc_qjSV2wvIH_ljf7z4ECob1

      Delete
    5. Summary: CNN, BBC and Sunday Times have all spoken to the same family

      The story is that these victims didn't hear, see or smell something that made them drop dead in a few steps but made the people in the building next door just faint briefly and foam at the mouth.. even though they walked directly towards and into the gas. And lay down in it for a while.

      I assume 4th floor is US and means the very top floor (next to, I also assume, the bed cylinder).


      Longer version:

      Father says a helicopter goes over and "some guys tell them to go down one floor" (BBC)
      Loud bombs while sheltering in basement (Sunday Times)
      "Then it was quiet"... [no helicopter?] (Sunday Times)
      Masa says they hear a 'barrel' and hissing sound (BBC)
      2 volunteers go out of basement to see and come back shouting "gas" (Sunday Times)
      Mother + kids go upstairs with "white gas" pouring down past her [up towards where they just heard the 'barrel' hit, the hissing and where all the gas is coming from] (Sunday Times) "white smoke like fog" (BBC)
      Uncle carries Masa's twin sister (Sunday Times)
      Mother collapses and is "briefly unconscious", Masa lying next to her foaming at mouth (Sunday Times)
      Masa says she was the one who fell down and mother starts talking to uncle (BBC) even though the mother is "vomiting and coughing" [perhaps the mother has mixed up her twins here but the BBC only interviews one of the girls, said to be Masa] (Sunday Times)
      Masa says uncle takes her upstairs, gives wet cloth (BBC)
      Mother and Masa made it to the fourth floor [so they kept going towards the gas...!](CNN)
      Building gets hit by "new round of barrel bombs" (Sunday Times) though the mother admits she is "not sure what" the bombs were (CNN)
      Mother says she woke up, finds husband and other daughter "collapsed after inhaling the gas" 2 floors down (Sunday Times)
      "In blind panic, they made for the street" (Sunday Times)
      Child says "civil defence" arrived and poured water on people (BBC) or maybe the neighbours poured the water (Sunday Times)

      3 people died from their basement [unexplained, did these 3 die because of 'gas' or because the building was being bombed?], everyone next door died because they "didn't hear the gas" although WH Ibrahim Reyhani says many "died on the stairs" "after just taking a few steps" (Sunday Times)

      The mother tries phoning people (Sunday Times)
      They went to a medical point "at the end of the tunnel" (BBC) etc.

      Delete
    6. Also shared the basement with 75 neighbours

      The medical point seen is still in use, so treatment by the actual doctors was real but apparently unnecessary

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSXwG-901yU

      No CW victims treated also backed by Robert Fisk

      Delete
    7. Story on this differs https://twitter.com/holammer/status/985948898832285696

      People didn't notice the helicopter/'barrels' and were even stood outside during the heavy bombing? Why were their shoes in the basement if they were stood in the street?

      Doesn't seem very believable. He also seems to be in the video with the Russians visiting https://youtu.be/7QCPj5nUwkg?t=33

      Delete
    8. Follow up question for Nasr Hanan: if everyone in the house died how did he watch his brother in the kitchen? Didn't he try and save his family if he was inside the house instead of leaving them foaming on the floor?

      If you want to match the cylinder position in the original video it would have to match the video frame tweeted and deleted by Eliot Higgins by the way, later videos the cylinder is in a different place and the edge of the hole collapsed.

      Delete
    9. e.g. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/986284059495206917
      If it 'perfectly matches' later videos they are not looking at the cylinder as the cylinder was originally at a different angle to the hole. People seem to be making things up again.

      Delete
    10. The Times article "Syria: Family of 11 clung together in death" (which looks to mix up the 2 buildings) might explain the Hanan kitchen washing story

      Could be based on Abdullah Abu Homam "their clothes were still wet so we believe they tried to rinse themselves in vain".. so a guess?

      Delete
  2. Paywalled Sunday Times article https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/8cbaot/the_little_girl_whose_agony_set_the_west_on_path/

    The neighbours heard it but that house didn't.. gas is yellow and turns white... 3000 (!) survivors appear in a camp

    Also Syrian gov did an exchange for prisoners. How does that work at the same time as random chlorinerve gas bombing? Trying to accidentally kill all the prisoners they want released?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hanan brother blurred on BBC is not blurred on CBS


    https://imgur.com/EaugSrD

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/syria-inside-douma-the-site-of-apparent-chemical-attack-2018-04-16/

    ReplyDelete
  4. In this video, for a different event they allege to have used toothpaste to fake the foam

    https://youtu.be/SO4MGvvCeK8?t=129

    ReplyDelete
  5. Earliest time on EXIF data for Smart photos is 11:16 am (guessing you have these but only see the Smart videos linked on ACLOS)

    https://smartnews-agency.com/en/album/283471/children-are-killed-in-syrian-government-chemical-massacre#65865

    ReplyDelete
  6. New report (paywalled after 1 view) https://www.ft.com/content/651d4d56-4e15-11e8-a7a9-37318e776bab says the OPCW are going to try and exhume the victims.

    No convincing survivors to take samples from? Have the 500 gone missing?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If link doesn't work:

      Ahmet Uzumcu, head of the OPCW said its FFM had already gathered over 100 "environmental samples"

      these samples deteriorate quickly

      it could be a month until the OPCW’s fact-finding mission publishes its report on Douma

      "From the bodies already buried we are looking for ways to exhume if possible and take some biomedical samples," "first time we have exhumed bodies"

      Mr Uzumcu said he had not been able to verify allegations that inspectors had been blocked or whether evidence had been removed or tampered with by Syrian forces

      Uzumcu pushing for powers to attribute blame

      - so from this it must mean that no-one else has died since or gone to Turkey for treatment and subsequently died. And that excuses are already being prepared for finding nothing.

      Delete
  7. From SNHR: White Helmet Ahmad al Islam "I saw three dead bodies laid on the ground in front of a bunker. There was no blood on any of them."

    The 3 bodies = deaths in the story above from neighbouring basement?

    He then goes on to tell a story of going "down the bunker" and seeing the victims in the other house so it might just be not true unless he has mixed down with up. But could explain the origin of the 3.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Letter from Academy of Medical Sciences Iran questioning Douma samples, symptoms

    http://www.ams.ac.ir/images/maghalat/Letter-to-the-OPCW-concerning-Douma-incident-English-97-02-26-8am-4-for.pdf

    ReplyDelete

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