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Warning: This site contains images and graphic descriptions of extreme violence and/or its effects. It's not as bad as it could be, but is meant to be shocking. Readers should be 18+ or a mature 17 or so. There is also some foul language occasionally, and potential for general upsetting of comforting conventional wisdom. Please view with discretion.
Showing posts with label Mariupol. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mariupol. Show all posts

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Sergei Korotkikh and the Massacres at Bucha and Mariupol

File under No Nazis in Ukraine, Nazis in Russia, False-Flag

August 24, 2025

(rough, incomplete)

A Wayward Neo-Nazi Finds his Home

Sergei/Serhiy Korotkikh/Korotkykh (Сергій Коротких) aka Boatsman/Boatswain («Боцман») is a Belorussian neo-Nazi who operated in Russia, where, around 2002, as a Declassified UK investigation finds, "he founded a Russian neo-Nazi group – the National Socialist Society. It spread fear in Moscow by targeting darker-skinned guest workers from the Caucasus and central Asia. The group was banned and its members convicted of dozens of racist murders."

Continuing: "Korotkikh is alleged to have killed two migrants in 2007, beheading one of the victims – Shamil Odamanov – on camera beneath a swastika flag. He denies the allegations, which featured in the multi-award winning documentary Credit for Murder by Israeli director Vlady Antonevicz." [1] I have a screen-grab with no gore, but a swastika flag, proper Nazi-era style, stretched between two trees in the woods where they have the bound men kneeling. He can deny that was him under the mask, but he can hardly deny founding the xenophobic neo-Nazi group that took credit.

That documentary came out in 2015, but somehow, Korotkikh was never formally charged in Russia until 2021, reports Declassified UK. He had already fled or left Russia, moving to Ukraine around the time of the Maidan "revolution" in 2014, maybe understanding it was a good place for Nazis to be. As it so happens, he was warmly accepted by Ukraine's new government, granted citizenship in a public ceremony by president Poroshenko (pic), and given a position in the new Azov Battalion. [2] As explained below, he would command Azov's reconnaissance unit, operating from Mariupol, Ukraine's occupied capitol for the occupied parts of Donetsk oblast. 

Keep in mind that, as Declassified UK put it, Azov was "a neo-Nazi militia founded by Ukrainian far-right activist Andriy Biletsky to fight against pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas. Biletsky reportedly once said he wanted to “lead the white races of the world in a final crusade…against Semite-led Untermenschen [subhumans].” [3]

For a guy who supposedly never committed those murders in Russia, Korotkikh has a way of knowing all about high-profile murders now in Ukraine. In 2021 he was talking about the mysterious death of Belarusian Vitaliy Shyshov in Ukraine." [4] Already in 2019 he was saying "the Poroshenko regime is hiding details of the investigation into high-profile murders." [5] 

After the Russian invasion of 2022, Korotkikh and his specialized skills were set to work defending the fatherland. He was pictured with a large cache of weapons to on February 26 (pic). [6] He also published a video where he vowed to play football with the severed heads of "Chechen" fighters. [7] Surely just a figure of speech? On March 22 he gave an interview about the far right in Ukraine and the Donbas conflict, 2014 vs. now, complaining about "certain restrictions on the use of combat skills" compared to the old days (we'll come back to that). [8] 

Korotkikh and the Bucha Massacre

A new unit he formed - "the Boatsman boys" - would be deployed in various places, including Bucha, the site of the supposed massacre by Russian forces. Perhaps Korotkikh's most famous moment came on April 2, a few days after the Russian withdrawal, when he posted a video from his boys in Bucha that included an apparent order to execute captured men. As The Gray Zone summarized, "A clip of the reported “clean-up operation” published by Sergey Korotkikh, a notorious neo-Nazi Azov member, shows one member of his unit asking another if he can shoot “guys without blue armbands,” referring to those without the marking worn by Ukrainian military forces. The militant stridently responds, “f*** yeah!”" [9]

Only burned out Russian tanks on Vokzalnaya street are actually shown, but the discussion comes through on the commander's radio as he films them. I note that he speaks so casually he could be ignoring the question and just commenting on the two tanks left in a sort of mating position. But I don't suppose that would hold any weight in, for example, a future war crimes trial.

There were claims Korotkikh was the man filming the scene, but he clarified that his men fighting in Bucha had sent him the video [10] while he was on a mission near the Belarus border (we'll come back to near-border stuff below). Many reported that the video was deleted, but it was there on Telegram when I checked (although it doesn't come up now). The text description included (translated) "BOATSMAN BOYS work in Bucha. Actually, there is nothing to do there." There may have been suspected collaborators to execute, as the audio suggests, but if so it's lumped in with everything else and rounded down to "nothing." [11]

Vox Ukraine published a supposed debunk of running claims, pointing to some video postings with extra sounds added. In the original, it says, "there are no loud shots-like sounds at the end of the recording ... At the end of the recording, you can clearly hear “please" but further words cannot be deciphered." [12] The version I heard then didn't feature anything like gunshots, and the voices weren't clear at all. So they're probably right that some versions were faked up. But the sources I cite here mention none of these added sounds, though others apparently did. Everyone agrees there's an audible "please" in the background, with indistinct voices most likely (from context) pleading for their lives, and no one denies there is an apparent request and approval for the execution of captured, presumably civilian men, who were probably shot, even if we don't hear that. A few exaggerations do not alter these facts. And keep in mind, that's just from this one short video, aside from whatever else happened off-camera. 

The Vox Ukraine article further notes "the bodies of the dead civilians were already lying on the streets when the Ukrainian military entered the city." [13] This is true, in contrast to lazy claims that Ukrainian forces were responsible for the presumed executions, citing how these bodies were not mentioned or seen in earlier views or reports filed from totally different streets. I had a deep look into Bucha and found it a very mixed bag, with the balance of blame left mostly unclear. The evidence shows most of the bodies later seen in videos were killed by Russian forces, especially in their 2nd invasion on March 5. Most seem to have died by tank fire in murky "traffic incidents" as opposed to executions. Many other bodies were reported to contain a type of shrapnel common in Ukrainian shells, while some bodies lay next to the impacts of artillery from the Ukrainian-held southeast. Other seen cases were murkier, and perhaps hundreds of reported deaths and their circumstances are left completely unseen. 

A group of 8 men were clearly taken prisoner by Russian forces, as seen on surveillance video, and marched to the spot they would later be seen, apparently executed. These were called civilians, then admitted to be 7 illegal, ununiformed fighters with Ukraine's new "Territorial Defense Forces" (TDF) and the civilian man found sheltering them in his house. Apparently, the legality of this move is actually debatable, but I for one don't support it. Another group of executed men found in a basement at a former Russian base, including one with a white armband, may have been executed there after the "liberation" (fresh-seeming blood, debatable rigor mortis clues), or before that as alleged, with mixed clues as to their allegiance. 3 other men that appeared executed seem to be more TDF fighters killed by a Russian shell from the north long before one of the bodies was staged as if executed - clean white cloth was used to tie his hands after rolling the body from an earlier position, seemingly held during at least one heavy rain). [14] 

So it's hard to say how much of the "Bucha massacre" was committed by Korotkikh's men or other "liberators," but it seems likely at least a few suspected collaborators were executed, especially given this casually publicized ADMISSION TO SUCH ORDERS. 

Korotkikh and the Mariupol Market Massacre

I recognized the name Sergei Korotkikh, more or less, from an earlier massacre in Ukraine. His face rang the same bell, but I had the name wrong (or was it given differently?) as Korotkov. This leads into my addition to the file: he already seemed like a mega-creep likely involved in a January 24, 2015 false-flag rocket attack in Mariupol I studied in some detail at the time.[15] 

Some 30 locals were killed and 100 injured when about 100 Grad rockets pelted the Vostochniy district in the span of 30 seconds (as reported). These were generally thought to be fired by separatist forces moving in on Mariupol, presumably on accident as they aimed for a Ukrainian military checkpoint on the district's northern outskirts. Either way, the allegations seem to have stalled separatist progress until the Minsk II accords froze the conflict, ending such moves on the city until the Russians came in 2022, leading to epic destruction and mass casualties amid circumstances few understand. [16]

This "Mariupol market attack" is where I first learned reliable ballistic analysis under varying conditions, analyzing dozens of geolocated impacts and, copying some unverified dots from someone else's map, set all the red dots on the map attached below. To my credit as no propagandist, while I wanted to show how Kyiv's forces did this, I read the ballistic evidence much like the OSCE observers did - the rockets came mainly from the rebel-held east and northeast, but also from the contested SE and perhaps south, where Ukraine had just taken control. In nearly all such cases I've studied since then, the fire comes from Ukrainian areas plain as day. But this case was different. 

Out of some 100 rocket impacts ostensibly aimed at the checkpoint (see map w/notes below), none came close to hitting that target. The closest one missed by some 500m and the furthest by about 2km. To achieve this terrible effect, 3+ firing directions had to make the relevant mistakes (various combinations of overshooting and targeting far to the left) with no mistake on the perfect synchronization. This is beyond unlikely and so this was probably no accident. 

But who would have the motive to do this on purpose? Separatists would have the locals' support in this ethnic Russian district, and would have no reason to terrorize them ahead of liberation, and no reason to do so from their own areas, in their own name, in front of the whole world. Ukraine's occupying forces, headed up by the anti-Russian neo-Nazis of the Azov Battalion, on the other hand ... they might see value in basically shooting some of their hostages, to do it from the enemy's area and in their name, to frame the liberators and complicate their advance, even threatening to shoot more hostages if they dare approach Mariupol again. That may be just what happened here. 

Experts on the scene suspected as much. A Voice of America report noted "in spite of the evidence, many [locals] continue to believe that the government was responsible, though they are too afraid to say so openly." [17] They understand the motive lies with Azov so clearly that we're forced to consider if they could be to blame after all. The fire came mainly from separatist areas, yes, but to achieve that, Kyiv's forces would only require 2-3 positions snuck in along a porous border and established behind enemy lines, as stealthy as needed until the moment of attack. Then they would be exposed for 30 seconds of coordinated firing before packing up quick and running back home before they could be caught. That's not really implausible at all, and I propose that's just what happened. 

Anyone paying enough attention might suspect this was no accident, but I noticed the smug certainty of one "Serhiy Korotkov" (as I took it down), who was then "The Azov Battalion's RECONNISSANCE UNIT COMMANDER," sent into Vostochniy on January 24 to document the damage. A short edit of his video report (now private - screen grab below) has the "Boatsman" explaining: "anybody can check for oneself that this is not an accidental hit. There is no Ukrainian military here, and never have been. In this area, as graffiti on some walls shows, some fans of the Russian World live. Those who want the Russian World - see, here you got it." Earlier in the video he reported from Kievskaya street; "what's noteworthy is that over here we have "Left Sector" (opponents of Kiev-allied fascist group Right Sector). The Communiaki (derogatory term for Communists) received what they wanted." He alternates between smiling with amusement, and trying somewhat not to. His argument here is that, in "the Russian world," they like to deliberately kill their own. Anti-Russian neo-Nazis likely Korotkikh love to see the "Communiaki" die, but they don't have to fire a shot as their enemies kill themselves out of some self-destructive and perhaps subhuman instinct. Who wouldn't be happy amid carnage like that?

It might matter that his job was head of reconnaissance, the group tasked not so much with investigating attack sites in the occupied capitol city as with things like ... SNEAKING BEHIND ENEMY LINES, which is where those rockets had just come from. His certainty it was a deliberate Russian-on-Russian attack, in itself, suggests that he might have overseen this deliberate attack on Russians. Shortly after the attack, the recon chief was gloating at the attack site and, as the only relevant expert into what happened, setting the blame for us. But where was he, or where were his men, shortly before and during the attack? 

A known Neo-Nazi organizer with a past of likely murder and even beheading - a potential genocidal terrorist in the wrong circumstances - was put in charge of this aspect of running Mariupol, Ukraine's eastern capitol city of hostages; he was likely allowed to commit a false-flag massacre of ethnic Russians in order to halt the separatist advance. It would then be little surprise if his men later sent to Bucha would execute some other locals seen as supporting "the Russian world" and to then blame the same "Russian world" for their slayings. And it would be no surprise if the claims were widely accepted by a sleepwalking global public.    


P.S. 4/25 And this likely committer of false-flag artillery massacres reportedly got 5 British rocket launchers for his adventures.  Phil Miller May 17 2023 https://x.com/pmillerinfo/status/1658768315014078464

I've been looking at where British rocket launchers for Ukraine have ended up. 

Five were obtained by Sergei Korotkikh, who founded Russia's National Socialist Society and is accused of beheading a migrant - he's been fighting for Ukraine since 2014.  

Sources:

[1] https://www.declassifieduk.org/revealed-russian-neo-nazi-leader-obtained-uk-missiles-in-ukraine/

[2, 3] ibid.

[4] https://twitter.com/HromadskeUA/status/1430232622773547016

[5] https://x.com/informator_news/status/1108415835528445953

[6] https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1497690688363900929

[7] https://twitter.com/Viaches50993743/status/1497453248021770242

[8] https://aspi.com.ua/news/kiiv/teroborona-kieva-mae-stati-pidrozdilom-zsu-komandir-batalonu-tro-korotkikh-foto-video#gsc.tab=0

[9] https://thegrayzone.com/2022/04/03/testimony-mariupol-hospital-ukrainian-deceptions-media-malpractice/

[10] https://meduza.io/amp/feature/2022/04/06/kak-ubivali-lyudey-v-buche

[11] Original posting:  Apr 2 at 13:33 = 11:33 PM in Ukraine https://t.me/botsmanua/16178

an active copy: https://x.com/antiwar_soldier/status/1511163378110287874

another: https://x.com/RWApodcast/status/1510635133627514881

[12] https://voxukraine.org/en/false-video-of-serhiy-korotkykh-boatsman-proves-that-ukrainian-military-killed-civilians-in-bucha/

[13] Ibid.

[14] details mostly in various blog posts of mine under this label - sorry, got lazy here https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/search/label/Bucha%20Massacre

[15] some related links: https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1510931185337180163

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/03/who-is-really-flattening-mariupol.html

https://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Talk:Mariupol_market_shelling

[16] https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/03/who-is-really-flattening-mariupol.html

[17] http://www.voanews.com/content/ukrainian-authorities-struggle-to-secure-a-divided-mariupol/2668416.html

Sunday, April 3, 2022

Mariupol Maternity Hospital Attack: Survivor Marianna Sheds Some Light

April 3/4, 2022

(rough, incomplete)

Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Who Attacked the Children's and Maternity Hospital in Mariupol?

A new interview has surfaced with the woman who survived the Mariupol maternity hospital attack of March 9, Marianna Vishegirskaya - also mis-heard, I think, as Vishemirska, or even Mirsky (spoken at 0:40) - maiden name Podgurskaya, aka Gixie Beauty -  hereafter just Marainna. I hope that's okay. This is the full 24-minute interview by Denis Seleznev:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEJ9xG6-Va0 (English etc. captions available via auto-translate). 

In this post, I will compare what she says to a bunch of other stuff. 

A Face to Shame the Russians 

Marianna was famously (and unhappily) seen leaving the damaged hospital with minor cuts to her face, in polka dot maternity wear, then seen 2 days later in the same, quickly healed and cuddling with new baby Veronika. 

Less fortunate was the still-unnamed other woman whose womb was practically ripped open, eventually killing both her and the baby. Three others including a young girl were reportedly killed, and several others were injured. 

It was presented as unassailable fact that a Russian airstrike was to blame. Russian denials seemed like admissions, claiming another maternity hospital had been taken over by the Azov Battalion  (M.H. no. 1 taken over in late February and hosting attacks by 3/5 vs. Marianna in M.H. no. 3, only made a military post on 3/6.) And so, some hospital being an Azov base meant that one and might be a fair target, the Russians said. But they also deny delivering any airstrikes in the city at all on that day - and it still has not been proven that was a lie. 

And Russian officials and media claimed the attack scene was not a functioning hospital, staffed only with militants and one woman - Marianna - in makeup playing the only two pregnant women shown. At 15:15 in the new video, she breaks into tears thinking of the other woman who died and was NOT her in another disguise. I for one knew that all along, and that she was severely wounded, sure to lose the baby at least. 

I feel well-positioned here, questioning the allegations against Russia and also calling out what seemed like actual Kremlin disinformation. As I put it in my first post: "[Marianna] was shown holding regular cosmetics and called a "social media influencer" to underline how she must have used different makeup and publicity to "influence" the public's perception about a Russian attack on Neo-Nazi militants. The basic narrative was repeated widely, and often mindlessly."

The same Russian embassy accounts that spread the claims she was fake now post the new interview as revealing the truth, asking "you remember Marianna?" I remember when they called her fake. Now she says this, and before she said ... what? Anything? 

We never did hear very much from survivors. The closest western source was an Associated Press team, reporter Mstyslav Chernov and photographer Evgeniy Maloletka, But there were no interviews in initial Associated Press report of the day, nor in a fuller article on the 10th, nor even in a follow-up of the 11th centered around a visit with Marianna: Amid Mariupol horror, a newborn rests in her mother's arms | Hosted (ap.org)

"Images of the desperate mothers and medical workers from the Children’s and Women’s Health hospital shocked the world, as the bombing took Russia’s war against Ukraine to a sickening new level." As expected, the article spends the most time deconstructing Russia's poorly-chosen propaganda counter-attack, but adds a bit from their rare on-the-ground reporting. 

"AP reporters in Mariupol who documented the attack in video and photos saw the victims and damage first-hand – and nothing to indicate the hospital was used as anything other than a hospital." As they learned - or just reported - Marianna "had to flee the hospital when a Russian airstrike hit." But she isn't quoted, and could be speech impaired for all his article adds.

But then on the 14th, as the other woman died, some bits of an interview with Marianna were finally included in AP reports. 

“It happened on March 9 in Hospital No. 3 in Mariupol. We were lying in wards when glass, frames, windows and walls flew apart,” said Vishegirskaya, who has blogged on social media about fashion and beauty. “We don’t know how it happened. We were in our wards and some had time to cover themselves, some didn’t,” she said.

https://www.goshennews.com/news/national_news/pregnant-woman-baby-die-after-russian-bombing-in-mariupol/article_0099b0e0-2b10-5232-a85d-43a2fd4fe403.html

A later AP report (see below) would refer to video from the 9th, just after the attack, where Marianna speaks briefly to Chernov and Maloletka, and adds a bit more from the 11th: "In video recorded that day, she discussed what she saw and heard at the hospital. The subject of whether it was hit by airstrikes or shelling did not explicitly come up. The only reference that Vishegirskaya made on the matter was that she was not sure where the strike came from. “I didn’t see with my own eyes, from whom it flew, from where, what and which direction. We don’t know,” she told AP on camera, adding: “There are many rumors, but in fact we can’t say anything.”" This report adds that "interviews with a police officer and a soldier at the scene who both referred to the attack as an “airstrike.”" Of course that's their job to say, true or not.

Otherwise it was all a geopolitical proxy war over claims and images. Russia lost it, of course.

But as it turns out, according to Marianna, she told the Associated Press' reporter the hospital grounds were being used as a military base, and that everyone she spoke to agrees with her there was no Russian airstrike. If this is true, it seems they omitted some of their own reporting that would complicate the narrative they presented, including the evident Russian bombing and the complete lack of a military reason, allowing for easy proof of another illogical war crime right from the Russian "playbook" Western media has been compiling.

Marianna's Account Plugged into the Map

It was March 6 when Marianna and her husband Yuri went to maternity hospital no. 3 because no. 2 wasn't allowing people. (3:30) The patients were told they were free to come or go, but "later" military men came and told them they needed to leave the building so it could be made a military position. (4:20) As she heard they needed that building for its solar batteries (not verified if it even has these). She never says Azov Battalion or specifies just who these military men were.

They had to move to "the only maternity hospital building left" where they would be on the 9th. Here's My original site map with updates in red. As I gather, they'd originally be in the east building "women's consultation MTMO Obstetrician-gynecologist ", and then moved to the north one just labeled "building." Apparently it was also maternity, just the lesser part of it. "The new building had just one generator used solely to support ALV for the newborn babies," she says. That's where they were when that blast occurred. ALV = incubators or something, and sorry I keep confusing neonatal, antenatal, perinatal ... She says antenatal, after born, children's hospital, west building.  

The husbands stayed in the basement, she says, and around as needed, cooking food at an improvised field kitchen with food brought by locals. The military men never helped, she says, and in fact they came once and took the food cooked for them. (6:13) Not planning to starve the pregnant women, they noted the husbands could cook them up some more. There was a low-key celebration there on March 8 and all was quiet - no jets or shelling was heard. Even basement girls didn't go down to the shelter and "we slept peacefully at night." (7:15) 

It stayed quiet on the 9th until the attack which was "about lunch, maybe in the afternoon" as Marianna recalls, vaguely (reports give about 4 PM). "the first explosion was heard," distinct enough from the second one that came across louder and made the walls fly apart - "There were no more explosions except for the two ones we've heard." 

Again, her words plug right into the map, and the forensics. The first impact might be what made the dramatic crater at the south end of the grounds. In the distance: damaged west building on the left, new maternity hospital on the right. Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka 

the other shell left no discernable crater but as Michael Kobs helped me realize, it made a crater in the foliage, shredding many branches and obliterating one tree at the evidence center of damage - see below, antenatal clinic behind her, the twisted former tree on the far left. - see starting analysis at the top link, or wait for the forthcoming improvements. 


My working basic map - south crater visually appears twice in the Maxar satellite view - the one we see seems more in the middle, marked red here. No building damage at all clearly links to this. Maybe all of it links to the tree impact. Maybe hitting solid earth makes that big of a difference.

As noted below, the reference to 2 blasts may have nothing to do with this - both these impacts may have sounded as one, whereas another unexplained blast can be seen quite some ways to the east. But for now, either reading seems possible.

At some point, she says, "We later started to discuss whether we were air bombed. Those who were on the street (the men, outside) told us there were no airstrikes, that they didn't hear any ... we heard no airstrikes and neither did they." "they said that it was a shell that hit us. ... it didn't come from the sky."

For what it's worth and AFIK, this decision could also be unfounded. Jets or bombers at the right altitude might be fairly quiet, and a missile flying in might be loud or silent, depending on the type - there is some kind of noise in a video provided by the AP, presumably NOT with anything edited in - all worth some review.  Chernov says he heard a jet clearly from where he was at the time, then the 2 loud blasts - not sure at all that's what we hear in his video - also worth noting a jet can fly overhead without launching an attack; if someone wanted to blame the Russians with a false flag and were clever and patient, might time it to coincide with a jet pass. 

But all that aside , the people there didn't think it was an airstrike.  

Concluding the narrative: "When the second explosion was heard, we exited the building and were evacuated to the basement." She relates evacuation with the injured woman first, and herself last among the pregnant women, as her injuries were light and she was calm. "I came out last they told me that I didn't need any medical treatment, the cuts weren't deep." Two days later they're almost totally healed, leaving small scars.  

In the meantime, she was moved to another hospital, gave birth to Veronika by cesarean section late on the 10th, and was photographed and interviewed the next day. Then whatever else, and she and Yuri finally got out of Mariupol somehow. And, considering Russian forces, her speaking Russian, etc. many conclude that she was kidnapped to Russia and was pressured by the Russians to spread Russian lies. Or ... perhaps she went back to Makiivka, Donetsk where she came from, before she and Yuri got sort of trapped in Mariupol during the Coronavirus pandemic. (0:50). That part remains unclear.

Dispute with AP Reporters

AP journalists Mstyslav Chernov and Evgeniy Maloletka were at the scene. The main issue people have is how swiftly they got there, as if it was arranged ahead of time. Marianna seems to suspect this. Immediately after the blast, she says, everyone moved down into the basement and stayed there 5-10 minutes before it was clear enough to evacuate the wounded and then the rest - Marianna estimates 12 minutes total since the blast, before she was standing outside assessing the damage when she first noticed the AP crew. "They seemed to be there" already, on-site or nearby. (16:18) And she had a lot to say from there, presenting them like ambulance-chasers, perhaps with some bias. 

In return, a new AP article by Sophia Tulp on April 2 decries how this survivor - re-cast as a "blogger video," not a person - "fuels false info on Mariupol bombing."

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/nation-world/story/2022-04-02/ukraine-blogger-video-fuels-false-info-on-mariupol-bombing 

Trying to rebut this claim, Tulp writes (emphasis mine)

"At the time of the strike, AP reporters were in another part of Mariupol. They distinctly heard a plane and then two explosions. They went to the 12th floor of a nearby building where they filmed two large plumes of smoke in the distance in the direction of the hospital. It then took them about 25 minutes to get to the hospital."

Twitter user "Collapse Into Now" notes that by photo metadata they took this 12th floor photo at 3:03 PM (maybe set an hour early) and were on the scene and snapping photos of people coming out within 16 minutes of that - a small discrepancy with "25 minutes." Collapse Into Now also shows "Judging by one of their photos, they were stationed high up in a tower block just across the road, overlooking the hospital, when the incident happened." 


The hospital is the pale green and peach cluster buildings in the right mid-foreground, about one or two city blocks "in the distance." All 3 buildings under discussion are fully visible here, and both impacts on the grounds, besides a few car fires, are all on about the same line of sight/appearing as one plume. Note this second plume on the left in the actual distance is at least a kilometer away, and maybe never reported.  

That's not just a trick of the zoom lens; a Chernov video from the ground (on Instagram) seems to capture the moment of the second blast, geolocated by Michael Kobs to the foot of the same building where they'd take the above photo. Before that, we see the plume rise over ... about 1-2 block's worth of rooftops - low yellow ones here, plume behind tree - from Kobs, modified, red and pink added. The other plume on the left also in red. Worth further geo-correlation. That's not at the hospital


Considering this further plume: It's far off, but would be close enough to hear ... revising now, perhaps that was the first blast Marianna heard? And the second one included everything that hit the maternity hospital, coming more or less at once? If so, she doesn't confirm that was 2 shells, but my analysis does show it. And this footage would show there was another impact across town we might have heard nothing about. (have we?) 

So "another part" of the city = maybe two city blocks NW of the strike. They just zipped upstairs for a photo, back down and then over. They enter the grounds by the alley between buildings visible at the right side of the photo above - the nearest part to them. That might be insignificant, except it is convenient in allowing the top foreign media in town to be so close - but not TOO close - to this crime they were able to film the immediate aftermath of. And it seems they're trying to minimize it here, now that Marianna - a fake witness and social media influencer? - thinks they arrived too quickly for comfort. 

As she stood outside, Marianna says, she noticed a "military" man - or someone wearing a helmet as journalists do - with a "fluffy" or "fuzzy" object (microphone?) and she realized he was filming her (13:30). She asked him not to, as she wasn't in a mood to "shine," so he stopped, at about the same time someone came to usher her upstairs to get her stuff. But he resumed filming later, she says, and the same ones tracked her down in the hospital and interviewed her there after she gave birth. Her husband Yuri identified their credentials as (auto-translated) "commits and the press" = Associated Press. 

Defending her colleagues, Sophia Tulp leads with questions about the video's context:

"It is not clear where Vishegirskaya is, or under what conditions the interview was filmed.

The video was posted to Seleznev’s YouTube account and circulated on Telegram and Twitter, and similar videos were also shared on Vishegirskaya’s personal Instagram account. Russian officials have repeatedly tried to cast doubt on the strike..."

Strong suggestion: she's somewhere bad like Russia, and is speaking and posting under threat, obviously to spread Russian lies to cast doubt over their attack. Next, Tulp tries to dispute what the witness says, as if to elevate these vague suspicions to more like facts - considering the inconsistencies, she MUST be lying:

Vishegirskaya also says in the video that she repeatedly told AP she did not want to be filmed, but recordings of AP journalists’ interactions with her contradict this. Video shows reporters’ first encounter with her outside the hospital, where she is wrapped in a blanket and looks directly at the camera.

“How are you?” Chernov asks, and Vishegirskaya replies: “Everything is good. I feel good.” Someone off camera says, “Let’s go,” and she replies, “Yes, let’s go please,” before entering the building with an emergency worker to collect her belongings.

During the exchange Vishegirskaya is aware she is on camera and does not make any indication that she does not wish to be filmed. AP reporters also said neither she nor her husband ever indicated that they did not consent to being filmed or interviewed when they spoke with the couple March 11, the day after she gave birth.

It's not clear this footage shows their "first encounter." There might be an earlier bit where she asked not to be filmed - she says as much at 13:53 - and that was edited out. Then there may be another point where they filmed her again anyway - which she says at 14:30 - even as others were telling them not to. Maybe she relaxed her policy enough to politely reply, but even by this, she does seem eager to get away from the camera, consistent with requests not to be filmed in the first place. 

The interview on the 11th was presumably agreed to. When they showed up, Marianna says, they wanted to do a short interview with her. She replied, as translated, "I have a political interview, I don't want to give it." (18:25) That would hopefully mean blaming the Russians for an airstrike on a non-military target, but she didn't want to. So they made it more narrow - apolitically, "just tell me how it was, well how did you see." What AP later reported sounds like that.  

Maybe in that vein, Marianna relates "they didn't ask" if "there was an air raid or there wasn't." Nonetheless, she offered some specifics as to what happened or didn't; "I say no, no one heard at all, even those who were on the street," meaning - as above - no one heard a jet, so it was probably surface shelling, not an airstrike. Apparently no comments to this effect were published. 

"Then they asked if there were Ukrainian troops ... in the maternity hospital itself. I say there were no troops in the maternity hospital, but on the territory (grounds) I am proud (insist?), on the territory..." she then pauses to explain the area, wherein the military was based in the eastern building that HAD BEEN the main maternity hospital. 

At 19:50 she explains how she looked on the internet for this interview as soon as she was back home, but didn't find it, even in the widely published AP article about her. 
 

This reads like they never published her interview, and it would have seemed that way at first. The initial AP article naming her on March 11 only reported on what photos show - her clothing, etc. They "saw the victims and damage first-hand – and [saw] nothing to indicate the hospital was used as anything other than a hospital." There was no mention of SPEAKING to anyone or HEARING the hospital WAS being used as a base (so they don't DENY it). All they add from the hospital visit is: "On Friday, her husband, Yuri, lovingly held up his daughter, then she was tucked back next to her mother. Vishegirskaya, in same the polka-dot clothing, rested her arm on the bundled-up Veronika." 


Marianna might have missed it, but on the 14th as the other woman died, a new article did include some bits of an interview where she dryly describes just what she saw: 

“It happened on March 9 in Hospital No. 3 in Mariupol. We were lying in wards when glass, frames, windows and walls flew apart ... We don’t know how it happened. We were in our wards and some had time to cover themselves, some didn’t,” she said.

Now it's reported (Tulp) that in a video recorded (and published?) on the 11th: 
"...she discussed what she saw and heard at the hospital. The subject of whether it was hit by airstrikes or shelling did not explicitly come up. The only reference that Vishegirskaya made on the matter was that she was not sure where the strike came from."
“I didn’t see with my own eyes, from whom it flew, from where, what and which direction. We don’t know,” she told AP on camera, adding: “There are many rumors, but in fact we can’t say anything.”

Note: dropped bombs don't really fly, but surface-fired shells do. There might be other parts edited out, like where she said no one heard a jet. Or perhaps she never did say that; the discussion to establish no airstrike might have taken a few days so that on the 11th she just wasn't sure.

Interestingly, her position on military presence at the hospital is absent. It's hard to believe they wouldn't ask her about this, but they either didn't ask, or didn't publish the answer. As she recalls it, they did ask and her answer was to the effect of "there were no troops in the maternity hospital, but on the territory (grounds)" there were. They don't have her denying it, nor affirming it - that space is just left blank. 

Informationally, they didn't get much to compare or show different, but as far as we can see, everything she says now is consistent with what she said on March 11.

A Russian-Controlled Story from a Social Media Influencer?

Still, it will be said she's lying now, as people blame the victim and deny her agency, as long as some evil Russian control can be imagined. 

Thomas VanLinge says: "Very concerning news. Marianna, the pregnant girl from #Mariupol, turns out to be one of the refugees that has been taken to #Russia in violation of the evacuation agreement. There they put her in front of a camera and have her say there was no aerial attack on the hospital." 
He noted later she may be in separatist-controlled Donetsk, but that was the same issue - a zone of untrustworthiness.

Ukraine24 News reports "She's been captured by the invaders ... taken hostage by the Russian military. Now she is in the russian controlled territory." AP's Sophie Tulp wasn't so direct, but leadingly noted "It is not clear where Vishegirskaya is, or under what conditions the interview was filmed." But what she said seemed to dovetail with known Russian propaganda efforts, and Tulp set to refuting her claims in about the same way.

To me, Mrs. Vishegirskaya seems to be speaking quite freely. Note the frequent sharp gasps as she runs sentences on; this is an eager, autonomous communicator, not someone reading from cue cards at gunpoint. That's subjective, I know, but come on ... can't you see that? In contrast, the bits in those AP reports come across stilted, fragmentary, unsure - even 2 days after the incident, as if she didn't want to say what they wanted to hear, or as if whole answers were just left off. 

If she was saying part of this before she was ever "kidnapped" from Mariupol, she may have suffered some Russian brainwashing, maybe for her whole life - she might be one of the majority in Mariupol who identified, maybe just slightly, with the Donbas separatists, having actually lived there 2014-2020. She may be one of those Russia claimed to be liberating from Kiev's occupation, and whom they had no motive to harm - one who would prefer a peace under anyone over this madness, but one who knows Russia is not solely to blame. 

In other words, she may be one to call a liar and supporter of Fascism and then ignore.

And BTW it's the Azov Battalion, according to many locals, that was trapping people in Mariupol as human shields, not the Russians.  That's why people can leave now that Azov has been pushed to the south. The Russians, it seems, get the people out of harm's way at firat chance, some of them by forceful "eviction." Kiev calls it kidnapping, but at least some thank them for it later. Patrick Lancaster speaks with Mariupol refugees in the Ukrainian village of (Bezimenne? east along the coast if so) At 2:55 and 16:25 two mother-daughter pairs explain happily enough how the Russian military "evicted" them from homes that would soon be rubble, because it wasn't safe to stay. The Russians brought them here where it's fine, and they're not sure where they'll go next. It seems to be their choice, and if Mariupol remains an option, they'd like to go back.

But Sophie Tulp, Thomas VanLinge, and their ilk won't trust these people, or Marianna, until they've been shipped to Kyiv, and maybe had a secret debriefing in SBU headquarters to undo the Russian brainwashing. THEN it could be sure they're speaking "freely." 

Postscript: False-Flag Notes

Finally, the strike on a military base might seem obviously Russian - they seemed to justify it, but with stories relating to a different maternity hospital no. 1 taken over in late February, not on March 6. They also deny airstrikes, as alleged, on that day. They don't deny rocket or missile strikes like this, but still, they haven't owned up to it. 

And my reading of the damage says this second missile that afternoon hit a certain tree in the courtyard - lines up with the damage to show (as the damage alone does) a launch from the east, at a relatively short range - points to Azov Brigade-occupied Azovstal plant between 3.5km and 7km out, and past that another 2-3 km of the city's east they held, then some Russian controlled areas ~10-11 km out. Explanation forthcoming, but here's my current reading:


By all this it does seem likely the Russians did it, and after all, why would Azov hit their own base? Well, consider they hardly did, to the degree we should wonder why the Russians would bother. The east building was furthest from the blast and likely protected further by the shell's vertical angle. It suffered little more damage than some windows taken out, and they might have known when to duck. Consider if it was a base, as Marianna says, they had it so no signs were evident when the AP reporters came to report ... or so that they could attribute that presence to this emergency they came to manage. And it so happens theses reporters were quite nearby at this time. That doesn't prove, but is all consistent with, their knowing the strike was coming and preparing for it. 

The angle of attack - besides sparing the army's base - seem to have mainly hit the building that, as far as we've heard, must have been vacant. The occupied maternity hospital in between might have been meant to face only mild danger - maybe the missile was supposed to hit the soil like the south one did, letting the earth take most of the force, but it hit the tree instead. From all this, the plan may have been to hurt as few as possible while creating the spectacle of a massive Russian crime - if so, that pregnant woman fatally killed, besides the 3 others, might have caused some regret and even complication.

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Mariupol Theater Bombing: Shelled from the South

March 29, 2022

Russian forces have now taken control of the central square in Mariupol, including the drama theater and shelter they allegedly bombed on March 16. New images from widely-banned Russian media are somehow making the rounds, allowing closer glimpses of a scene that's now different than it was last we saw. RT drone footage of March 27 or 28, I guess. On first glance, it looks just about as bombed in the middle as it did ever since the disputed bomb blast nearly two weeks before.


Interestingly, that shows a neat pile of timbers in the front parking lot, seeming just the same as it did in aerial views of the 19th and 21st. But from this different angle, it's clear the opposite, east end has suffered a new collapse - compare solid wall casting a solid shadow vs. noting, in an image with almost the exact same solar angle as the first.

On-the-ground images are clearer about the extent of new damage, showing a direct hit from a powerful weapon. It flattened the middle of the once-intact wall, burying the elegant staircase. There's a clear difference in damage on the left/south vs. right/north, suggesting a missile strike from the south; the blast is in all directions, but especially in the direction of travel. New debris piles more to the north (yellow), including pieces that chipped the wall to the north (lime), some very big pieces that went north, and the northern half of the broken arch (orange) seems physically moved by the avalanche of debris. None of that is seen south of impact. (dome of church in blue, just to clarify the scene match)


All this we see outside the building also could suggests some east trend, although maybe not much - it also seems to have hit close to the edge, or right above the entrance. That would be a rocket/missile fired from at least a bit west of south, relative to the building. 

West entrance ... we see at least 2 or 3 sets of fragmentation marks from mortar shells or the like impacting nearby, like perhaps where Russian troops had just been advancing from the northwest. The angle evident in at least the one band of marks, maybe these other two, suggests a trajectory at least partly from the south. (incoming trajectory tends to be perpendicular to the resulting band of marks, because the fragments fly out perpendicular from the rocket tube). 


A few minor differences in the pavement might reflect where these impacted, but nothing obvious pops out to say where. Maybe a vehicle or something else since moved took the nearest hit. And it might seem odd this shelling did so little to affect that pile of timbers, but those really shouldn't go sliding around very easily, unless there was an impact very close to that discrete pile.  

It's not clear if these wall marks are new since the 21st, but that makes the most sense. They would have nothing to do with the initial bombing inside the building on the 16th, and were absent in a photo from shortly after the blast (note posters still up, timbers not piled together yet). 

Both basic angles given as ranges (not gospel), mapped to true north from the building: Distance is unclear and likely varied; the rocket-type and mortar-type fire were probably from different spots at different times, but in similar directions. 

everything outside the blue zone here should be controlled by Ukrainian forces. Neither side can control their area to the absolute exclusion of the other - especially of sneaky provocateurs. But they tend to do that pretty well, especially where heavy artillery is involved. Consider if these Ukrainians had fallen back from the center, the outer part of these red areas might be smart - depending how things go, they could retreat or regroup with others to the south, and/or link up to the east with their comrades in the Azovstal plant.

The shelling at the west end makes clear enough military sense, and hardly affected the building. But why should the Ukrainians fire a missile on the theater where 300 people were "feared" buried and possibly still alive? It sure couldn't help any Russian-led rescue or recovery operation, now that this is possible. But, of course, it could be blamed on the Russians. And that just might be reason enough.

But if so, it doesn't seem they have the ballistic evidence on their side.

Monday, March 28, 2022

Mariupol Theater Bombing: Molfar "Destroys" Russian "Propaganda Bloc" in Edinburgh

March 28, 2022

Note: A previous overview post on the theater bombing to leave as-is, updates and changes will be reflected in new posts like this (rough, to refine maybe).  

edits 3/29

new attack piece in the Times addresses yet again the urgent problem of academics in the Uniuted Kingdom raising questions - a frequent theme at the Times and elsewhere. Again they apply some pressure that might have another dissenter - Tim Hayward, professor of environmental political theory at the University of Edinburgh - sacked or shut up somehow. 

This latest published article by paid, mainstream "journalists" was based on a March 19 tweet (deleted? screen grab by self-appointed Witchfinder General Chris D. York) wherein Hayward shamelessly shared a March 18 article from Max Blumenthal at the Gray Zone about the Mariupol Theater bombing on the 16th. That article was described as being (or at least containing) "the propaganda of the Russian government," which the non-sacked professor was now spreading. That was again news. Very bad news. 

For this important attack on a professor - over a tweet - about someone else's article - the Times  commissioned a Ukrainian open-source investigation group called Molfar, who claim to be "the next frontier of intelligence." They partner financially with the US and Ukrainian government, as Bumenthal notes. Surely they could cut through state-backed propaganda efforts and show these alleged "questions" to be some kind of unacceptable Russian lies.

Molfar published a "step-by-step" explanation that proves handy in tracking down their missteps. In fact, I didn't see any other kind of steps. https://teletype.in/@molfar/DkDhLfvbeVt

Molfar specialists have conducted an operational investigation for one of the world's most important resources – Thetimes.co.uk, digital version of the newspaper The Times. We tell step by step how everything happened and what results were achieved. Another step-by-step case with the result in the form of a destroyed propaganda bloc of Russia and one accused of propaganda...

Really, they crafted a crude straw effigy to burn in another witch hunt. They conflate claims from Russian media and officials, with reports from locals in Eastern Ukraine, and from other parties, along with Blumenthal's own thoughts, and take it all, sloppily, as "a propaganda bloc of Russia." Some "lies" were supposedly found, "destroying" that bloc as they say. But anything REAL they might have done was not included in this explanation. 

First, Some Valid Issues 

Blumenthal's piece was a welcome addition that elevated some very interesting questions. But on my one quick read (so far), it seemed far from perfect. For example "all civilians appear to have escaped with their lives" - that was both alleged/implied and also quite disputed, so it really appeared unclear.  The article might stretch and force some other points too, whereas the evidence is actually more mixed - this and the backlash inspires me to really try and just ask questions and let the answers emerge when they do. But then Molfar kept annoying me...

Witness issues in particular need more careful attention. Accounts passed on by Russian and separatist media and thence the Gray Zone, etc. have the Azov Battalion in charge of the shelter as a base, and "holding" 1,000 people there and rigging bomb in the roof to detonate on them, but in the end perhaps everyone left, or some 300 remained ... mostly text accounts, largely second-hand - compelling, but unclear - one worth knowing, translation perhaps needed: Irina (one posting on Twitter)   

Those who have spoken to western media don't mention any of that militant activity, or fears of an on-site bomb, and describe an open shelter were people were free to come and go, mainly deciding to go based on Russian bombs falling too close. So far it seems the latter are greater in number, with more specific accounts, largely with names and faces attached - one account from an editor in Kyiv sounds kind of ... edited to Kiev's tune, but otherwise they sound legitimate.  (note 3/29: what must be that editor's youngest daughter, the bubbly Maria from Mariupol adds little credibility, IMO) 

In the past, I have had to consider whole sets of witnesses lodging two conflicting stories (or two+ classes of internally conflicting stories) where one set at least had to be lying - it does happen. But it's always worth trying to correlate all versions with a middle reality people saw differently, and that seems broadly possible here. It also seems likely enough that one set of witness accounts or witness-based claims is largely based on lies, maybe assisted by confusion. I hope to make more time to hear from people who were there, or claim to have been there - primary source evidence, alleged and real, not just 2nd hand claims and guesses possibly colored by ideology. 

Until I have done that, no further word, and my main point would be it's not really clear what to make of the witness record. Likewise the physical evidence is not conclusive, that I can see. So as I see it, whoever is asking a question wins on principle over someone claiming a sure fact. Blumenthal asked "Was bombing of Mariupol theater staged by Ukrainian Azov extremists to trigger NATO intervention?" He did suggest the answer was quite likely yes, but still it's a question. Professor Hayward shared the link to a piece and asked: “What do we know of the reality?” If there was one exact best question to raise, that might be it. Emphasis mine

In contrast: "Molfar experts are always eager to help find out the truth, and will provide an indisputable amount of evidence against Russian ideologues," and they'll do that without becoming ideological themselves, because they were ideological and nothing but, before they even set out. They had to scoff at Hayward's misread "pathetic question: "What do we know about reality?"" (not THE reality of THE event, but about anything at all). Answering the misread question, they pontificate with misplaced hostility: 

"And we know the following about reality: if you lie, you will be found, your guilt will be proved, you will be deprived of status and regalia, you may even be accused of criminal involvement. In general, with the support of Russian propaganda, the whole civilized world will turn away from you."

Now how does a whole team of supposedly investigative-minded people come across sounding this unhinged?

Seven Big "Lies"

Molfar thinks they found so many lies here they had to narrow it down to seven biggest ones to explain in detail. To some extent, these are points I found slightly weak, so I'll include my own notes. "Exposed lies" include what they would call:

* three fallacies filed under "Arguments of Max Blumenthal and the Russian media: «The fighters of the Azov Battalion themselves blew up the building, where their headquarters was located»" 

* three examples of misusing the claims and experiences of locals to support those lies, and finally 

* an appeal to lack of visual evidence 

That might sound good, but check this out. 

Lie #1: Azov Battalion base: "based on a video uploaded March 11, the theater at that time really did shelter civilian residents of Mariupol" 

And therefore ... it could not be a military position as alleged? They don't clarify the significance. The theater was allegedly a base for firing positions in certain areas, upper floor probably, that also sheltered people in other areas, including the basement. That's HOW Azov was allegedly able to wire bomb over the heads of hundreds of people in a shelter. Blumenthal didn't deny people were sheltering in this likely militant base, he just questioned the number of them, and he did so citing that same video: "Only a small group of civilians could be seen in the video, however." That suggestion MIGHT be misleading, but I don't see any lie here, and no new reason to doubt the serious and compelling allegation Molfar seeks to bury. 

Lie #2:On-site bomb: Russian media also claimed that Azov Battalion fighters planted explosives on and under the roof" but team Molfar somehow knows booby-trapped buildings are always seen "collapsing from below, “sitting down” and “folding down” and, furthermore, the whole building would be destroyed, whereas "in the photo of the drama theater, only part of the building was destroyed, which is typical for a shell hit from the air." 

This sounds like gibberish to me. I'm not an expert, but it seems to me if an air bomb can do this, then a stationary one of the same power could do just as well. 

We have a blast seemingly centered in the raised "attic" area, where the Azov bomb was described as being (roughly as shown here). We still have Russia denying an airstrike, and no one alleging it has produced a radar track or any kind of evidence to counter it. Molfar offers this nonsense forensic opinion and nothing else, then proceeds to consider a Russian bomb as a known fact. That really feels like an ideological choice. 

Lie #3:shifting stories from "the Russian side" - whole text for this one: 
Information about the plans to blow up the building was allegedly reported to the Russian side by a fugitive fighter of the Azov battalion, including the number of civilians in the theater building. However, after the announcement that the bomb shelter had withstood the explosion, the Russian side suddenly announced that the Azov militants had allowed civilians to leave the building before the explosion of the Drama Theater and they were able to evacuate. These inconsistencies cast doubt on the veracity of the information about the fugitive fighter and the reliability of his words as a whole.

They have their sources muddled, I think, but I'm a bit unclear myself. It seemed like "local sources" compiled by DPR/LPR "News Aggregator" are credited for the main, detailed prediction of March 12, with a bomb rigged in the building. Other re-located locals (at least two of them) reported first that Azov allowed everyone to go (see here), and then another said that not quite everyone went, some 300 were left behind (see here). An Azov defector was separately reported to have leaked information on the theater situation, details unspecified. Screen grab of what I've heard included right here. 

Hardly anyone noticed those reports, but Molfar is aware of the "alleged" Azov defector and keen on discrediting this obscure man. I'm more compelled by his allegations now, and come to think of it...

It is POSSIBLE this defector is the original "local sources" and that might explain why some sources knew of a rigged bomb and most others didn't; he had insider knowledge they lacked. And consider if so, he defected by March 12, when that prediction went out. Molfar seems to assume that. That prediction might cause a plan change, with Azov letting people go, but his story was already lodged; it wouldn't suddenly become inconsistent - he just didn't have a crystal ball to predict that change back on the 12th. Molfar only trusts witnesses who have crystal balls and the correct political views. 

Then, after pretending accounts attributed to locals were just "suddenly announced" by "the Russian side," Molfar turns to "the words of civilians in the published material" as cited by Blumenthal to support that "Russian propaganda bloc." 

Lie 4: A witness claiming Azov Battalion blew up the theater was found to have pro-Russian views. They looked it up on VK, and she or someone looking a lot like her held pro-Russian views.  

That's all they needed to say on this 1/7 of their biggest lies. Her account could all be true, but her views disqualify it from consideration. As it happens, her account seemed a little vague and mostly second-hand to me, but still of some potential value. 

Lie 5: "The article's author, Max Blumenthal, also cites a March 11 video shot in the theater as evidence of local residents being used for “Azov” fighters’ needs. However, the video itself was filmed and provided by Azov fighters ..." 

Above, his ignoring the civilians proven by this video was one of the big lies they focused on. Here, his citing the same video of civilians is another big lie. Azov provided the video of civilians, so people were sheltered there AND Azov had access. But FWIW, that doesn't prove anything. 

Lie #6: a cited video with no words was posted by a Serbian person with bad politics, and that was the posting Blumenthal cited, if maybe not the original source. 

As far as Molfar could find, the video showed the relevant criminality it was "purported" to show - Azov Battalion trapping citizens in the city, attacking those who tried to flee. Other evidence Molfar didn't touch also supports this view. Yet they focused on this video and mainly on the political views of someone who posted it. 

I did see somebody claiming that violent footage from a highway checkpoint was from Mariupol in 2014. While I couldn't find an example to prove that, it seemed possible, so I didn't cite that video. Now I see the Molfar crew presumably investigated the open sources better than I did or could have (?), maybe sparked by the same unexplained comment. And it seems they could only raise vague doubts in the end, as they fell back on more ideological screening. Seeing that, it seems more likely that video is relevant. Still, it's not clear, and ideally it shouldn't take space from anything that is clear. 

Lie #7: "And the final argument is that there is no video of the attack on the theater!" Molfar acknowledged the relative lack of visual evidence, but offered this clear and complete answer:

The lack of photo and video materials is explained by a simple fact: a full-scale war is going on in Ukraine, and the city of Mariupol itself, where the attack on the Drama Theater took place, has been surrounded by Russian troops since the beginning of March. Local residents are practically cut off from communications, electricity, and regular food and water supplies. Even humanitarian convoys with the necessary products cannot enter the city through the checkpoints of the Russian military. In such isolation, people simply do not have the technical ability to share enough information, photos and videos from the scene.

Of course there was the war, spotty communications, limited electricity, dangerous conditions - all could explain some lack and some delay in reports and images. But even considering that, the visual record and news updates were extremely vague and infrequent and tended to show a totally vacant scene over and over (albeit not that many times over). 

This allowed for certain conclusions like no rescue effort, and maybe no one trapped, like it was all a "hoax." But as it played out, these views were challenged by the next reports and images to surface. That too could be a natural effect of a war-staggered flow of information. Moflar decided this is the sole reason we don't see much of the main events, and a natural let-up in these limitations must explain how we suddenly saw a lot more of it after a 9 day wait, on the 25th. But they did not and cannot prove this is all natural, and their very denials might even underline the importance of standing questions about all that. Either way, the flow of images and reports seemed interesting enough to address in a separate post (forthcoming).

Thursday, March 24, 2022

Some More Hell for Russian-Occupied Mariupol

< Who is Really Flattening Mariupol?

March 24, 2022

updates 4/4 ... 

Red Cross Warehouse

March 30, the Russians shelled Red Cross warehouse they were on the verge of securing ... because it was an Azov base? Because it could feed the people? Or did they do it at all? Analysis start here: https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1509964058581082118 - more + graphics forthcoming.

Vostochniy

The site of the infamous January 2015 false-flag shelling massacre, the first part of the city Russia secured by March 9, with what should have been overwhelming local support ... still getting shelled by the Russians 10+ days later? Not likely. See here for now: https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1507719831222509568

Livoberezhnyi 

Another display of Russia's alleged devastation of Mariupol caught my interest - I believe the stamps mean this drone video was made and published by the Azov Battalion, and then re-published by Radio Free Liberty / Radio Europe, U.S. funded. I'm using their posting on Twitter: "Drone video revealed widespread devastation in the besieged Ukrainian port city of Mariupol on March 22." And whatever, the camera doesn't lie. There's a span of Mariupol with nearly every tall building damaged or burned at some point, and even at filming, some 4 apartment blocks in the foreground are visibly smoking (visible in the frame below), and at least one tower in the distance is engulfed in a huge fire, pouring heavy black smoke across whole city blocks.   


It was an easy overall geolocation with adequate mappable details along a distinct coastline - Livoberezhnyi district - along Mosrkyi and Azovstal's'ka boulevards. Google Maps. Color-coded features:



A quick, approximate line of sight extension suggests the distant smoke comes from the fields up to and near Pionerske to the east, and a possible huge fire further out may be near the town of Zaichenko to the northeast. It's not clear if either means much - maybe two fields on fire, presumably from more Russian shelling to the east of Mariupol, 

Is this just more Russian brutality in revenge for military setbacks against the steadfast Azov defenders, or what?

Institute for the Study of War's first Mariupol map shows as of March 17 Russian control extended to a line across the middle of this scene, about at the end of that purple line, running left-right just short of the burning tower. A 3/18 map (on Twitter) shows the previous line and a newly assessed advance to include most of the area seen in the new video, marking a curve between administration building seized in the north and Chechen fighters seen in the south. 3/20 advance only noted on 3/21

On March 22, as that video was filmed, per the ISW map, nothing is assessed as different from the 20th, maybe just from a lack of video and/or analysis. This whole time: a huge yellow unknown of supposedly claimed control since March 10, when an Azov Battalion base was blown up. I've seen as of yesterday the plant's massive grounds were considered more like 60% controlled, 2 weeks later. Below: cropped from their 3/21 map with mine roughly scaled and rotated to match at coastline and marked roads.  


Side-note: full ISW map gives location of theater bombing as a sure Russian airstrike - near that, perhaps under Russain control now, is the children's & maternity hospitals struck on March 9, it seems to me (see here), with two missiles fired from the E-SE, best fitting with the southern part of the Azovstal steel plant, occupied by the Azov Battalion, whose positions there Russia bombed the next day. I didn't know what to call it then ... needs updated. 

I'm not sure how exact that curve of a frontline is to show control, but it makes all these newly-burning structures exactly front-line as of 3/18 and still, as far as the ISW knew. The places burning on the 22nd are all likely perches for snipers and light artillery to slow the Russian-Chechen-DPR advance on the Azovstal plant, where the Azov Battalion remained based, if battered. Or, depending on unclear details, these blocks might also be cleared of resistance and sit well behind Russian lines. 

In fact, considering how they helped make this video, Azov Battalion may have just fired those rockets or shells themselves, just to film another "Russian" crime. The further and terrible fire is harder to explain as Russian fire, and same for the distant fires way behind the front line. That looks like random devastation just inflicted on areas Russian forces already occupied for at least 5 days. It gives them no military advantage, just human losses, perhaps, and a mess to clean up, and more rebuilding to do with a strangulated economy. That only makes a sick, possible sense for the Ukrainian side.