tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-70915803078136864332024-03-18T22:03:28.533-07:00Monitor on Massacre MarketingThe Site that Asks: Is the "dictator" justifying intervention by killing innocents? Or is someone else doing it for him? (previously The Libyan Civil War: Critical Views)
Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comBlogger819125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-91276687381447936822024-03-08T05:20:00.000-08:002024-03-08T10:20:19.596-08:00Thoughts on the UN Report and What it Shows about October 7 Rape Claims<p><b>March 8, 2024</b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">A Report from "the Viagra Lady"</span></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaHmufBwAQLZOXy19vqBFpcKe2fD7LiQAfn8xG6HGn4chpANTcS730VEavFo8wBwj-UgolhJSKcd-FJNTEBpnJJA7AM5411iOcYlw78SuhtoyLHRBq22kPkz1focVU_IrzndV3mTvLhXybrbxA4LIRxkNtVI837sjsGNZPUoWgYTI7wZ9bhapy0z97vQXC/s1076/10-7_Paten.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="1076" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaHmufBwAQLZOXy19vqBFpcKe2fD7LiQAfn8xG6HGn4chpANTcS730VEavFo8wBwj-UgolhJSKcd-FJNTEBpnJJA7AM5411iOcYlw78SuhtoyLHRBq22kPkz1focVU_IrzndV3mTvLhXybrbxA4LIRxkNtVI837sjsGNZPUoWgYTI7wZ9bhapy0z97vQXC/s320/10-7_Paten.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict: "Mission report: Official visit of the Office of the SRSG-SVC to Israel and the occupied West Bank" 29 January – 14 February 2024 - PDF link: <a href="https://news.un.org/en/sites/news.un.org.en/files/atoms/files/Mission_report_of_SRSG_SVC_to_Israel-oWB_29Jan_14_feb_2024.pdf">https://news.un.org/en/sites/news.un.org.en/files/atoms/files/Mission_report_of_SRSG_SVC_to_Israel-oWB_29Jan_14_feb_2024.pdf</a><p></p><p>Press release: ‘Clear and convincing information’ that hostages held in Gaza subjected to sexual violence, says UN Special Representative - UN News, 4 March, 2024 - <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/03/1147217">https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/03/1147217</a></p><p>The UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, Pramila Patten, "following a 17-day visit to Israel ... reported on Monday that she and a team of experts had found “clear and convincing information” of rape and sexualized torture being committed against hostages seized during the 7 October terror attacks" and also "reasonable grounds to believe that conflict-related sexual violence occurred in multiple locations" during the October 7 attacks themselves. The latter is something I've analyzed here in some detail: <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2024/01/words-without-truth-how-new-york-times.html">Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Words Without Truth: How the New York Times Helped Netanyahu Weaponize Sexual Violence Allegations Against the People of Gaza</a></p><p>It's worth noting how, in 2022, Ms. Paten was <a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2022/11/13/un-envoy-fabricating-viagra-russian/">caught laundering Ukrainian claims</a> (seemingly recycled from Libya, 2011) that Russian troops were issued a Viagra equivalent to enhance their systematic rape of Ukrainian women. She passed this on as fact, but later admitted it likely wasn't true, and how she was handed these claims and did little or nothing to verify them. "I have an advocacy mandate," she explained. "My role is not to investigate.” Others at the UN did the investigating, and "in their reports so far, there’s nothing about Viagra." </p><p>As then, Paten's mission to Israel "was not investigative in nature." It "was not intended to be, and is not a substitute for, an investigation by relevant United Nations entities mandated for that purpose, nor is it a replacement for criminal investigations and proceedings subject to due process of law." [25] The report also notes "the absence of United Nations entities operating in Israel, as well as the lack of cooperation by the State of Israel with relevant United Nations bodies with an investigative mandate." [55]</p><p>Press release: "Ms. Patten’s recommendations include a call for the Israeli Government to grant full access to the UN human rights office (OHCHR) and the Human Rights Council-mandated independent Commission of Inquiry on the occupied territory “to conduct fully-fledged independent investigations into all alleged violations.” </p><p>But so far, they haven't done these things. Instead, it seems Israel only wanted some "advocacy" from "the Viagra lady," as they might have seen it, the one with no power to actually investigate. Interesting. </p><p>But it should be noted that the Mission did apply at least some scrutiny to some of the provided information, even discounting some claims. It could be called an investigation, but technically it isn't. What they collect could be called evidence, but they call it "information." It's handled less formally, and ... something. I don't fully get the distinctions here, but it's discussed in the press conference (video at the top link). Their findings have less authority than those of a proper investigation, for one thing. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Report Content: Still "No Medical, No Video - Just Words"</span></b></p><p>The report claims to draw on the mission's 33 meetings with "Israeli representatives," 34 "confidential interviews including with survivors and witnesses of the 7 October attacks, released hostages, first responders and others," and their "examining more than 5,000 photographic images and 50 hours of video footage." Due to the Israeli refusal to cooperate with the UN probes, "information gathered by the mission team was in a large part sourced from Israeli national institutions." [55] </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBudJkiu8NVTaGPggoB5_lN5z1hhYyMlQvMxl39YiZ3hbdW0CPL8y2yv-H0rPBZhT2rd8OsKasKwdu8Y-ULr58x1O0No6yyu3Yr2pMKdh8e1otqKZ45mrtkvzFkwp4lAmWA_clcmZFFnZo1ZEZMaYIu3VQJ-9laLE-953qpS1JWHK_EwcYjL5flZokbrV_/s474/10-7_Paten_2.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="324" data-original-width="474" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBudJkiu8NVTaGPggoB5_lN5z1hhYyMlQvMxl39YiZ3hbdW0CPL8y2yv-H0rPBZhT2rd8OsKasKwdu8Y-ULr58x1O0No6yyu3Yr2pMKdh8e1otqKZ45mrtkvzFkwp4lAmWA_clcmZFFnZo1ZEZMaYIu3VQJ-9laLE-953qpS1JWHK_EwcYjL5flZokbrV_/s320/10-7_Paten_2.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>Right: Paten in Israel, next to Yossi Landau, southern region director of rescue group ZAKA, and a major producer of October 7 atrocity hoaxes (Israel MFA <a href="https://electronicintifada.net/content/un-report-launders-israels-fraudulent-mass-rape-propaganda/45021">via Electronic Intifada</a>)<p></p><p>The mission heard about alleged Israeli abuses of Palestinians in the West bank since October 7, including threats of rape, beatings in the genitals, unwanted touching, and "inappropriate strip search and prolonged forced nudity." They were not in verification mode for these reports, and made no visit to the Gaza war zone. The report notes that other UN agencies are working on these aspects, and of course they were never the subject of the Israeli pressures that prompted this mission.</p><p>The external focus has been on alleged abuses of Israelis by Palestinians, on October 7 and since. As the report concludes, the mission found "clear and convincing information that some hostages taken to Gaza have been subjected to various forms of conflict-related sexual violence," and they had "reasonable grounds to believe that such violence may be ongoing." This was "based on the first-hand accounts of released hostages," with no supporting evidence mentioned (not that much would be expected).</p><p>Released hostages Mia Schem and Agam Goldstein-Almog have given evidence for rape (of someone else), or a culture of it (barely restrained by a jealous wife) under Hamas captivity. But both did so after first speaking in a much different tone, or giving different details, and failing to mention or even hint at this dark side. Other former hostages have said they witnessed someone else being raped or the like, with no differing accounts to contrast. But that doesn't mean they are any more truthful. </p><p>None of them are absolutely, necessarily false, but at least some hostage accounts are quite dubious, and it's quite possible all of them are concocted under pressure - external or internal - from the same "Israeli representatives" pressing for and guiding this UN mission. </p><p>As for October 7 itself, the mission was able to "verify" at least one "incident of the rape of a woman outside of a bomb shelter" but heard "other allegations of rape that could not yet be verified." [13] Perhaps the one case was "verified" as in proven true, and perhaps other cases sit fully ready to join it. But by and large, it seems this comes from a policy of giving supposed witnesses the benefit of the doubt wherever it's possible, not just where it's warranted. It's almost like this is some UN Human Rights mandate - a supposed witness can NEVER lie, unless that winds up undeniably, 100% proven. </p><p>October 7 rape claims are reasonably believable, according to the UN mission, "based on the examination of available information, including credible statements by eyewitnesses" and nothing else they mention. [58] It's not clear how they define a witness statement as "credible," but so far the public has only heard from the other kind. And regarding those they worked with...</p><p>"It must be noted that witnesses and sources with whom the mission team engaged adopted over time an increasingly cautious and circumspect approach regarding past accounts, including in some cases retracting statements made previously. Some also stated to the mission team that they no longer felt confident in their recollections of other assertions that had appeared in the media." [64]</p><p>Some witnesses changed their stories after theirs and others' were exposed as lies. Indeed, that must be noted.</p><p>The report does not mention any autopsies or medical evidence they saw to support the rape claims. It still seems Israel never gathered such evidence at all, perhaps for fear of discovering a negative answer.</p><p>The mission's call is also based on <b>no video evidence</b>: "no digital evidence specifically depicting acts of sexual violence was found in open sources" [77] and "in the medicolegal assessment of available photos and videos" - including those provided by Israeli sources - "no tangible indications of rape could be identified."<b> </b>[74] <b>In "5,000 photographic images and 50 hours of video footage," including from Hamas body cameras, there was ZERO "tangible indications of rape" the mission could find. </b>And they tried. So have the Israelis, and they give no indication of having found anything either. </p><p>As I noted before; it's not that this stuff definitely never happened, but it seemingly never happened in front of a camera, which would be odd given the alleged scale of the abuse. It leaves wide open the possibility that all these "credible" but shifting accounts are simply lies.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Some Specific Claims Addressed</span></b></p><p>"The medicolegal assessment of available photos and videos revealed multiple corpses with injuries, predominantly gunshot wounds, including to intimate body parts such as breasts and genitalia. Because <b>in most instances additional injuries were also seen on other body parts</b>, no discernible pattern of genital mutilation could be established. [76] That's what I was asking, and what Schwartz and crew for the New York Times refused to consider when they wrote of "a video, provided by the Israeli military, showing two dead Israeli soldiers at a base near Gaza who appeared to have been shot directly in their vaginas." I added these injuries were "perhaps among other shots to every part of the body, or perhaps in the targeted way they suggest." The UN Mission found that, for the most part, these were just incidental parts of some body-wide shooting. </p><p>They also considered the reports of a woman found, bound on a bed with a "sharp object" or "knife" left in her vagina, or as the Times put it, citing a provided photo, with "dozens of nails driven into her thighs and groin." All agree she was found in a home in Be'eri that was explosively collapsed, but they agree that had nothing to do with her injuries. In contrast to the Times' reporters, the UN mission found this claim "could not be verified by the mission team due in large part to the limited availability and low quality of imagery." [65] </p><p>They heard from "other credible sources" about women, especially around the Nova music festival, partly or totally naked, "with some gunshots in the head and/or tied including with their hands bound behind their backs and tied to structures such as trees or poles.[58] "The mission team was also able to ascertain that multiple bodies of women and a few men were found totally or partially naked or with their clothes torn, including some bound and/or attached to structures, which – though circumstantial – may be indicative of some forms of sexual violence." [60]</p><p>Some went to the rave almost naked and were later found dressed just the same way. Charred, mutilated bodies with torn clothing may indicate Hamas violence or Israeli tank or helicopter fire, which is now understood to kill an unclear but significant number of civilians. Some victims might wind up flung against and then "attached to" some structures, for example. Otherwise, maybe these images (which we haven't seen) do show the results of Hamas raping women and even men, during some breaks in the fighting. Or it seems quite possible some ZAKA types, who would have more time on their hands, stripped some bodies and tied them up to look that way. </p><p>Paragraph 14 and 65 combined explain: "The mission team conducted a visit to kibbutz Be’eri and was able to determine that at least two allegations of sexual violence widely repeated in the media, were unfounded due to either new superseding information or inconsistency in the facts gathered ... including first responder testimonies, photographic evidence and other information." </p><p>The "sharp objects" claim above is a third claim from Be'eri they could neither confirm nor refute. But they were forced to dismiss these other two claims.</p><p>Paragraph 65 continues to specify "the allegation of a pregnant woman whose womb had reportedly been ripped open before she was killed, with her fetus stabbed while still inside her." It's not explained how they discounted this story, almost as if it were fit to dismiss out-of-hand. And it probably is, but it seems to fall under "inconsistency in the facts gathered" - one of two reasons given to discount two claims. </p><p>This bizarre claim was originally lodged, it seems, by ZAKA's Yossi Landau (to Paten's left in the photo above), and has been debunked by Ha'aretz and others, <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/12/executing-pregnant-woman-and-her-fetus.html">including (and especially well) by myself</a>, based on inconsistent facts. Most note that no pregnant woman was reportedly killed on October 7, making for an easy case. I was able to add a later report of one pregnant woman that <i>was</i> reportedly killed, and she fit some reported details of this story (aged ~30 & 4 months pregnant), but with a different true story; she was killed randomly in a grenade attack at a roadside shelter after fleeing the Nova rave. She was not slaughtered at a house in Be'eri, where she did not live, nor in front of children that weren't even born yet (that was to be her first). </p><p>Paragraph 65 continues to the second refuted allegation: </p><p>"Another such account was the interpretation initially made of the body of a girl found separated from the rest of her family, naked from the waist down. It was determined by the mission team that the crime scene had been altered by a bomb squad and the bodies moved, explaining the separation of the body of the girl from the rest of her family." </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimLoZU-nGpti045CvDopQt5hUWHhwQovLHyEGGGNnjiMelESp36z_KpFztcFFC7JrETznAfjwhG_Ka9r0h3v_Hbqt0GC3lLAE5vdRA732VFVNAP_Lp_X-4d3ZEXPPzvVRPZW5QtvQXRpUtqJMY7OmuJgHVChTqbSYh4laHbVhk-H2lXvDsnXrAEMi4IMVI/s965/Screenshot%20(5299).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="324" data-original-width="965" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimLoZU-nGpti045CvDopQt5hUWHhwQovLHyEGGGNnjiMelESp36z_KpFztcFFC7JrETznAfjwhG_Ka9r0h3v_Hbqt0GC3lLAE5vdRA732VFVNAP_Lp_X-4d3ZEXPPzvVRPZW5QtvQXRpUtqJMY7OmuJgHVChTqbSYh4laHbVhk-H2lXvDsnXrAEMi4IMVI/w640-h214/Screenshot%20(5299).png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Sharabi Girls: Who was Where?</span></b></p><p>Here we must pause. This almost surely refers to one of the Sharabi sisters, Yahel (13) or Noiya (16), and probably to Yahel. Both were REPORTEDLY seen as apparent rape victims, in the only scene remotely similar to this that has been reported. But in most versions, there were two girls found. </p><p>Military paramedic "G" has claimed to several sources he saw the bodies of two girls in a bedroom, separated from any parents or guardians. One was face-down on the floor with "pajama pants pulled to her knees, bottom exposed, semen smeared on her back," alongside another girl on the bed, with "boxer shorts ripped, bruises by her groin." [NYT] The Times report found these girls had the same ages (13 and 16) as the only sisters reportedly killed in Be'eri, Yahel and Noiya Sharabi.</p><p>This paramedic's story is challenged, but in two different ways. One of these versions can hardly be true, but neither can be discounted just yet. </p><p>First, some reports cited by the Gray Zone, then the Intercept, and seemingly supported by the girls' grandparents, have the girls dying in the embrace of their mother, not separated and raped.</p><p><a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2024/01/10/questions-nyt-hamas-rape-report/">The GrayZone</a> cited <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/lianne-noiya-yahel-sharabi-48-16-13-our-3-beautiful-girls/">The Times of Israel</a>: "Family said that the bodies of the three women, who all held dual UK-Israeli citizenship, were found in an embrace." But for what it's worth, the only family they mention hearing from is "Lianne’s parents, Gill and Pete Brisley."</p><p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-67245135">A BBC report</a> along these lines also heard, exclusively, from the grandparents in Bristol, and they heard this exclusively from "a soldier" who says he found the girls: "Mrs Brisley said they later found out the bodies of their daughter and grandchildren had been <b>found by a soldier </b>"all cuddled together with Lianne doing what a mother would do - holding her babies in her arms, trying to protect them at the end". </p><p><a href="https://theintercept.com/2024/03/04/nyt-october-7-sexual-violence-kibbutz-beeri/">The Intercept</a> would later add how all 3 ladies “were just shot — nothing else had been done to them," according to "their grandmother Gillian Brisley," speaking to Israeli Channel 12. “They were found between the ‘mamad’” — the house’s safe room — “and the dining room and it’s an awful thing to say, they were just shot — nothing else had been done to them. They were shot,” said Gillian Brisley. <b>“A soldier said</b> he saw our daughter” — the girls’ mother — “but she was covering the two girls and they were shot,” added her husband, Pete, the girls’ grandfather." </p><p>Again, this is what the soldier told the grandparents. For all we know, he may be the same soldier/paramedic G, giving them and the outside world two different stories. Or perhaps it's another soldier. But no matter how many sources the claim gets repeated to, it remains questionable, considering there's another version backed, it seems, by the new UN report.</p><p>The Intercept, referring to the girls only by initial, noted how "N was initially reported missing for two weeks because her body had yet to be formally identified." This refers to the alternate version where the older sister, Noiya, was considered missing and possibly kidnapped, ten days after the massacre. </p><p><a href="https://www.thesun.ie/news/11504968/inside-house-yahel-sharabi-died-israel-hamas/">The Sun (UK tabloid)</a>, October 17, speaking with family members and visiting the home, reported "It has been confirmed Yahel died alongside her mum Lianne while her sister Noiya, 16, dad Eli, 51 and uncle Yossi, 53 were missing or kidnapped." No third body, identified or not, is mentioned as being found in their home. I had read this as excluding her from the house - she was somewhere else, perhaps abducted to another house with others, where they were killed alongside their captors. But perhaps she was here the whole time and they just thought that was someone else's body?</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9joyhmCq6ud7o3ncYEV4IpqV7jXzh1QvTdSY6VwUOdIoFnGiYUapllPFRlapUdu52yD-LuawB9go3TT806P3LsTq_baHzf21MPupJx-Zvvdlg837MCUtaHHfROxwFhM-os-DMNRqOrjjZu62q_jA3tqjNFuxzxf-ZaN8BhRxM9ljJ8DNWsUFwITZHgJEp/s960/10-7_Yahel_Bedroom.webp" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="691" data-original-width="960" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9joyhmCq6ud7o3ncYEV4IpqV7jXzh1QvTdSY6VwUOdIoFnGiYUapllPFRlapUdu52yD-LuawB9go3TT806P3LsTq_baHzf21MPupJx-Zvvdlg837MCUtaHHfROxwFhM-os-DMNRqOrjjZu62q_jA3tqjNFuxzxf-ZaN8BhRxM9ljJ8DNWsUFwITZHgJEp/w400-h288/10-7_Yahel_Bedroom.webp" width="400" /></a></div>The Sun: "A hallway where a huge blackened smear of blood appears to be the spot where Lianne died. And upstairs, another bloodstain tells its horror story in a room where Yahel slept — heavily staining the carpet close to a pair of pink pyjamas and vanity case." There's some blood visible on the floor, or at least on a rug edge (?) and some light blue cloth there, despite it being kept mainly off-frame.<p></p><p>Noiya was finally identified a few days after The Sun report, on October 22 (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/22/missing-16-year-old-british-girl-killed-in-hamas-attack-family-says">Guardian</a>) or 10/23 (<a href="https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/we-just-buried-a-mother-and-two-daughters-when-the-father-is-missing-i-feel-this-is-a-second-holocaust/">Jewish News</a>).</p><p>When he spoke to Republic TV (India), on or by October 25, G might have hinted that one of his "girls" was - or had been - missing (<a href="https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1717109976420741504">Eylon Levy posting</a>). He specifies "2 girls," but mainly ignores one to focus on "the girl" who was "laying on her bed - on the floor" (correcting himself), left to lie "in the blood of her ... in a pile/puddle of blood." Was he about to say "the blood of her sister," but realized she wouldn't be there? If so, why include her in the scene at all? And either way, it's his later accounts (CNN & NYT in December) that he's plenty clear on both victims being teenage girls, and both being in this room. So maybe I just imagined those clues.</p><p>The girls' uncle, Sharon Sharabi, does not come down clearly supporting either story. He told The Intercept “To tell you concretely what happened in Be’eri, or what happened at the house of the Sharabi family, I don’t have an answer for you ... <b>There is certainly no credible information I can give you, only testimonies of ZAKA or of military personnel who arrived at the scene first </b>and saw the atrocities. So any information I might give you is information that I’m not confident about, and therefore I would rather not give it [at all].” </p><p>"He added, “I’ve heard all the versions. What’s the truth? I don’t know.” Sharabi emphasized that he firmly believes there was widespread sexual violence committed during the attacks of October 7," but he won't endorse unreliable information from ZAKA or the IDF. And this is why uncle Sharon doesn't write for the New York Times. </p><p>The rest of us should feel no better informed than he is, and maintain an open mind, for what it's worth, regarding what happened in that house that day.</p><p>Kibbutz Be'eri spokesperson Michal Paikin also denied the rape(s), telling The Intercept “the Sharabi girls ... were shot and were not subjected to sexual abuse.” But Paikin did not address this controversy of who was found where.</p><p>Finally, the UN report seems to support the sidelined "Sun" version; that a single girl was "found separated from the rest of her family" is presented as a fact, which they have a specific explanation for: <b>"the crime scene had been altered by a bomb squad and the bodies moved, explaining the separation of the body of the girl from the rest of her family."</b> </p><p>Was she found with the others, then moved, and later found separate? But not the other sister? Did they just infer that, or is this based on relevant, factual details they learned? Two reasons are given for dismissing two claims, and this one seem to be due to "new superseding information." New information. Let's take careful note.</p><p>And let's ask WHY would a bomb squad be moving bodies around? Does a girl's corpse need carried upstairs before you can be sure there's no tripwire attached?</p><p>So now the girl is said to be alone, her sister still downstairs or missing somewhere else. There's still no great reason to believe G's description that included two girls, but let's consider, as this semi-informed new report also states as fact the one was found "naked from the waist down." A story including that also has what seemed to be semen smeared on her backside, in that position. This would mean she - or her body - was raped in that room. And <b>if this rape came after her body was moved there, for whatever reason, by members of an Israeli bomb squad... it might suggest someone on that team, or someone they cover for, raped the girl's corpse.</b> </p><p>One question about the claim arises: If Yahel's body was moved upstairs from an original spot, it seems unlikely that much blood would it shed on the floor upstairs; once the heart stops beating, bodies only bleed passively. </p><p>OR if the other version is true, and she was always cuddled with her mother and unidentified sister downstairs, then whose blood is that visibly on the floor upstairs? Maybe neither story is true, the room is where Yahel was killed, with no cuddling but also no rape.</p><p>In that case, the bomb squad story was ... some kind of misunderstanding? It's an awkward story, but it might help cover for an even worse one. Let's consider what if a rescuer with ZAKA or some elite military unit had assaulted the girl's corpse, and this became known to Israeli officials. They might want to back off the rape claim entirely, in the most convenient way - cite that mother's embrace story one of their soldiers originally told. But if they also knew the same body was seen upstairs alone, they might choose to suggest mother's embrace, so no rape, then moved upstairs and still no rape - obviously, since Hamas was long gone by then. They would be throwing the paramedic's account under the bus, but it seems to be there already, so why not? Then maybe a bomb squad seemed like the best explanation for that move. Although the supposed reasoning isn't clear, I also can't think of anything better. </p><p><b>Side-note: State of bodies</b></p><p>“Lianne and Yahel could only be identified through DNA samples. Noiya was identified through her teeth only two days ago.”</p><p>https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/we-just-buried-a-mother-and-two-daughters-when-the-father-is-missing-i-feel-this-is-a-second-holocaust/</p><p>Uncle Sharon Sharabi gave it the other way around, speaking to The Intercept: “Lianne and [Y] were only identified through dental records, and [N] by DNA,” he said. </p><p>Either way, this suggests their bodies were in a poor state that's not clearly explained. Max Blumenthal wondered at the GrayZone "if their bodies were, in fact, burned beyond recognition" and, if so, "how was the paramedic “G” able to detect semen on one of the girls, and bruises on the other, and view their states of undress"? But for what it's worth, in the Sun's photos, the home doesn't appear badly damaged or burned, so that may not be the explanation. This remains another open question about this case.</p>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-51544943442366795152024-01-29T16:42:00.000-08:002024-02-13T06:20:43.000-08:00Israel "Bringing Home" its Hostages - in Caskets<p><b>January 29, 2024</b></p><p><b>Adds on 2/3, Big adds Feb. 11-13</b></p><p>The Israeli Defense Forces continues its massive violence in Gaza aimed at eradicating Hamas and finding the remaining Israeli hostages to "bring them all home." Going on four months in, they claim <i><b>one </b>successful rescue. </i></p><p>Private Ori Megidish, a lookout soldier from Nahal Oz Base, was reportedly rescued on early in the offensive, on October 30. It wasn't clear if she was actually rescued or willingly released. An initial IDF statement said Megidish was “released,” but that was a "translation error," they said - she was “actively rescued." (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/31/middleeast/idf-ori-megidish-rescue-hamas-hostage-intl-hnk/index.html">CNN</a>) Israeli MFA spokesperson Yaari Cohen <a href="https://twitter.com/YaariCohen/status/1741167998222639247">later said</a> the supposed rescue provided "hope to millions of Israelis that more hostages can be released." </p><p>Four days before that rescue, on October 26, Hamas' Al-Qassam Brigades announced that <b>Israel had killed “almost 50 captives” </b>in missile and air strikes. (<a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2023/10/27/israels-military-shelled-burning-tanks-helicopters/">The Gray Zone</a>) This has never been proven, confirmed, or agreed, but it might well be true - Israel got a solid start to "freeing" the hostages by killing some 20% of them in the first weeks. Other cases we'll consider below all postdate this possible total and would add to it. </p><p>Interestingly, pvt. Megidish was missing from initial listings of those kidnapped, according to some observers, until she was added on the day of her rescue. (<a href="https://twitter.com/HalaJaber/status/1719099317720395863 ">Hala Jaber</a>). An oddity: a terrorist computer found in al-Shifa hospital had a public photo of pvt. Megidish as its wallpaper. "Why would this PC only contain one picture of a “single rescued Israeli soldier” which was earlier captured and brought to Gaza." <a href="https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1724881517082525860">https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1724881517082525860</a> Maybe she was never captured, and the photo was brought in to make some kind of case for that? I'm still not sure what to make of that or what it was even meant to signify, but it seems like a strange coincidence.</p><p>The Megidish case might have given people hope, but if that didn't fall flat from the strange details, it would be deflated after the following weeks of Israel's brutal destruction of the same Gaza the hostages were sheltered in. Aside from the one case, they've apparently <b>rescued no hostages, but it seems they've killed quite a few.</b> </p><p>Some 240+ hostages were originally tallied. Some 109 were released by Hamas before December 16, when CNN reported "132 captives were believed to still in Gaza, of whom 112 were thought to still be alive." But since then, the IDF had accidentally killed three, so it was 129 held, 109 of them alive = 20 dead. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/16/middleeast/what-we-know-hostages-killed-israel-gaza/index.html">(CNN</a>) January 15, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-says-it-fears-for-lives-of-two-hostages-after-latest-hamas-propaganda-video/">Times of Israel</a>: "It is believed that 132 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza — not all of them alive — after 105 civilians were released from Hamas captivity during a weeklong truce in late November. Four hostages were released prior to that, and one was rescued by troops. The bodies of eight hostages have also been recovered and three hostages were mistakenly killed by the military. The Israel Defense Forces has confirmed the deaths of 25 of those still held by Hamas, citing new intelligence and findings obtained by troops operating in Gaza."</p><p>Tallies will vary a bit with small details I don't know, but let's compare mid-December and mid-January. 132-25=107 still alive - just 2 less than a month earlier (109 on Dec. 16). 25 dead vs. 20 = up five. Below, I count six hostages likely killed by the IDF in that span. They may be responsible for all the added deaths.</p><p>The website <a href="https://oct7map.com/">https://oct7map.com/</a> currently lists 112 hostages released alive by Hamas - mainly during grudgingly-agreed cease-fires - and 138 still held, assumed alive or not confirmed as dead. The site lists at least 24 hostages specified as "Murdered in Captivity." We'll exclude one (Ilan Weiss) who was assumed kidnapped then reported dead, but he was actually found at his home, killed on October 7. That leaves 23. With the others listed, that gives a suggested total of at least 274 original hostages - more than the 240 or so first reported.</p><p>Of these 23, <b>half of them - 11 - were likely killed in known IDF actions</b>, with reasons to suspect that already published. The deadly actions include at least 2 airstrikes, a botched rescue effort, a tunnel attack on Hamas leaders (perhaps with toxic gas), and hostages directly surrendering to the IDF who were shot dead instead of taken home.</p><p>One hostage - Guy Illouz - was noted as killed by medical neglect (and with sanctions, etc. that might be partly the IDF's fault). note 2/3: Judith/Yehudit Weiss also "was a cancer patient, and after her abduction, her family expressed concern for her health, assuming she would not receive the necessary medical treatment while in captivity." And then she might die, or be "murdered," as listed. https://nachamuami.com/fallen/yehudit-weiss/ </p><p>The other half - also 11 - are unclear. Some were elderly and likely died from other medical issues, including limitations imposed on all Humans currently stuck in Gaza. The rest, like the other 11, are listed and/or reported as killed by Hamas, but may have been killed in other IDF strikes - no details were given in most cases. As far as I see, there are no proven Hamas executions among the 23. </p><p>Add 2/3: Soldier Naama Levy has not been "murdered" that we know of, but she may have been seen lightly injured after an Israeli attack in late November. https://twitter.com/MatamalasJ/status/1736431066188013571</p><p>If, as al-Qassam claimed, "almost 50" hostages - say ~47 - were killed in IDF attacks by late October, this 11 would make for at least ~58 killed in IDF actions or otherwise following in the assault and sanctions. The other 11 could make for ~69 - with perhaps others unreported or lost in the shuffle. Just 106 or so are thought to remain alive, and that's probably high. And again, none of them have been rescued aside from the one dubious case. </p><p>As Udi Goren, whose cousin was killed by Hamas, told CNN “The ground invasion" - all the killing in the name of rescuing the hostages - "is killing the hostages.” (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/16/middleeast/what-we-know-hostages-killed-israel-gaza/index.html">CNN</a>) So far, at the immense cost to Gazan civilians and some IDF troops, the hostages only come home in caskets. </p><p>But in a related development, Gaza is getting quite flat and unlivable, as have the bodies of some 20-30,000 Gazans. Considering that and all the other pros and cons, it seems worth continuing the war - likely through all of 2024 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67855117">BBC</a>). Maybe after another 10,000 children are killed the hostages can all brought home, and perhaps a handful of them can even come home alive. But even if none of them does, maybe 100,000 will be killed in Gaza, and the rest may all have to "voluntarily" relocate in order to survive, so to some minds it will seem well worth the effort.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">23 Total "Murdered in Captivity"</span></b></p><p>name - location - notes ("murdered" = no further details I know of)</p><p>1 Inbar Haiman - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Music Festival - "murdered"</p><p>2 Guy Illouz - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Music Festival - "murdered due to intentional prevention of proper medical care"</p><p>3 Elia Toledano - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Music Festival - "murdered" likely in 12/14 IDF tunnel attack</p><p>4 Yossi Sharabi - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Be'eri - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered" after IDF strike in mid-January</p><p>5 Yonatan Samerano - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Be'eri - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered"</p><p>6 Itay Svirski - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Be'eri - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered" after IDF strike in mid-January</p><p>7 Sahar Baruch - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Be'eri - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered" during IDF rescue effort Dec 8</p><p>8 Ofra Kedar - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Be'eri - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered"</p><p>9 Judith Weiss - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Be'eri - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered" - cancer patient - found near Shifa hospital when Cpl. Marciano was found, spurring Israel's mass-removal of bodies </p><p>10 Eitan Levy - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Be'eri - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered" after IDF strike in mid-January </p><p>11 Alon Lulu Shamriz - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Kfar Aza - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered" accidentally by IDF after escaping captivity, 12/15</p><p>12 Yotam Haim - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Kfar Aza - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered" accidentally by IDF after escaping captivity, 12/15</p><p>13 Ronen Engel - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Nir Oz - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered"</p><p>14 Eliyahu Margalit - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Nir Oz - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered"</p><p>15 Gadi Haggai - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Nir Oz - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered"</p><p>16 Maya Goren - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Nir Oz - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered"</p><p>17 Judy W'stein Haggai<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Nir Oz - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered"</p><p>18 Arye Zalmanovich - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Nir Oz -<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>"murdered"</p><p>19 Cpl. Noa Marciano - Nahal Oz base - "murdered" at Shifa hospital "quickly" after injury in IDF strike, 11/9 - body found near hosp. when Judith Weiss was found</p><p>20 Joshua Mollel - <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Nahal Oz - "murdered"</p><p>21 Samar Fouad Talalka - Nir Am - "murdered" accidentally by IDF after escaping captivity, 12/15</p><p>22 Ron Scherman - COGAT Base - "murdered" likely in 12/14 IDF tunnel attack</p><p>23 Nik Beizer - COGAT Base - "murdered" likely in 12/14 IDF tunnel attack</p><p>In a picture:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigQFXhYRjUVmXneJ0DWMfvYzGLWE7Hnj0i0qZY9BWvqMqbgB6efZgtwF6YlZh_Ae6eM5lzmFQhKPkPXm40_c_YGTSnRJdXKMxYlXqIo0kdV0tvPF7sVTkFD0u71dM87SXzy6pRw1yrD7P7lNKwK2kdRhrZuBbE0G2NEA9Gw9czm41DB8NCYAlCPIo_lUew/s1353/Screenshot%20(5261).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1353" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigQFXhYRjUVmXneJ0DWMfvYzGLWE7Hnj0i0qZY9BWvqMqbgB6efZgtwF6YlZh_Ae6eM5lzmFQhKPkPXm40_c_YGTSnRJdXKMxYlXqIo0kdV0tvPF7sVTkFD0u71dM87SXzy6pRw1yrD7P7lNKwK2kdRhrZuBbE0G2NEA9Gw9czm41DB8NCYAlCPIo_lUew/w640-h376/Screenshot%20(5261).png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Sources (by incident date):</span></b></p><p><b><u>November 9 strike on Noa Marciano's captor but not on her</u> </b>- 11/17: <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/world/israel-middle-east/body-of-second-israeli-hostage-killed-by-hamas-found-near-shifa-hospital-in-gaza-idf">Body of second Israeli hostage found near Shifa Hospital in Gaza: IDF | National Post</a> "On Monday night, Hamas released a video of Marciano that the Israel Defense Forces described as “psychological terror.” The video claimed that Marciano was killed in an airstrike in Gaza." </p><p>https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1726368486027403419</p><p>"On November 9, CPL Noa Marciano was injured from an IAF strike and the terrorist holding her hostage was neutralized. Following a preliminary pathological report, it was revealed that Noa’s injury was not life-threatening." These injuries are not described. Then, they say, "Noa was murdered by a Hamas terrorist in the Shifa Hospital." because it's absurd to think the same IDF strike that killed her captor could also kill her. And they took her to the hospital - that's a dead giveaway that they planned to murder her. </p><p>The fatal injuries, added to the unclear injuries from the strike, were described (1st source): “After analyzing the footage, experts suggest that her injuries do not align with those typically sustained in airstrikes,” the IDF said in a statement. “The observed wounds appear more consistent with bullet injuries, and there is also an indication that she may have suffered from injuries related to a fall from a height.” So she was quickly shot all over and dropped from a height once they had her in the hospital? That's not the most likely, but it's implied these injuries appeared AFTER the airstrike injuries, which they don't describe - since they don't seem to be from an airstrike. That should be all you need to know to understand these were later, execution-related injuries. Why did they need to consider if they were from some other airstrike? Or are they talking about the same injuries allegedly from their own attack? Did she suffer those supposedly atypical injuries in their strike, and are those - as far as they know - the same injuries she died from? If so, why does their being atypical matter? In other words, they seem to be dissembling badly.</p><p><b><u>IDF rescue effort Dec 8</u>: </b>Sahar Baruch from Be'eri was killed. A botched hostage rescue was reported Dec. 8 - 2 soldiers were badly wounded and, sadly, no hostages rescued - but some kidnappers were killed, and definitely no hostages were killed (the possibility wasn't even mentioned). (<a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/2-troops-seriously-hurt-in-failed-gaza-hostage-rescue-idf-signs-hamas-is-breaking/">Times of Israel</a>)</p><p>Later: Jan. 3 <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hostage-sahar-baruch-killed-during-rescue-attempt-a-month-ago-idf-says/">Hostage Sahar Baruch killed during rescue attempt a month ago, IDF says | The Times of Israel</a> "The IDF has notified the family of hostage Sahar Baruch that he was <b>killed during a failed attempt to rescue him </b>from Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip on December 8. The military says it is unable to determine the cause of death at this stage, and it is unknown if Baruch was murdered by Hamas or killed by Israeli fire. Hamas at the time claimed that Baruch was killed by the IDF, publishing footage of his body." Hamas executed him during the IDF effort to free him. If only the IDF had gotten there sooner ... Or was that not a coincidence? Did the attack provoked Hamas to kill him, or ... he was one of the "kidnappers" initially reported killed? </p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/AvivaKlompas/status/1733310075844878596">Aviva Klompas on X</a> 12/8: "The video released today ends by showing his tortured and mutilated body. Rather than screaming for the release of the hostages who are enduring untold evils, the world wants Israel to retreat. There can be no ceasefire until all the hostages are released and the Hamas war machine is destroyed." The IDF needs to go in there, guns blazing, or else these murders will never be stopped. Could he not see the possible connection to the day's failed raid and think to temper such comments? Most likely she could see that and was operating from an aggressive defiance of reality, fully expecting to win over reality in the end.</p><p><b><u>December 14 tunnel attack</u>: </b>Jan. 17, <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/other/idf-fails-to-confirm-gaza-hostages-cause-of-death-mother-claims-poisoning/ar-AA1n7NnB">Jerusalem Post via MSN</a>: "<b>The IDF could not confirm the cause of death of killed Gaza hostages Ron Sherman and Nick Beiser</b>, the military confirmed in a Wednesday statement. Their bodies were retrieved from a Hamas tunnel by the IDF in Jabalya on December 14, 2023, together with the body of Elia Toledano. ... Close to where the bodies were found, the IDF attacked a tunnel in which the commander of the northern division of Gaza, Ahmad Al Ghandour, was killed. The investigation shows that at the time of the attack, the IDF did not know about the presence of hostages in the area. Also, the forces who found their bodies during searches in the tunnel did not have prior intelligence about their presence." </p><p><b>"Ron Sherman’s mother, Maya, published a post yesterday in which she accused the IDF of mistakingly [sic] killing her son. </b>“The results of the investigation: Ron was indeed murdered,” she wrote. “Not by Hamas. Think more in the direction of Auschwitz and the showers but without Nazis and without Hamas as the cause. No accidental shooting, no report, premeditated murder, bombings with poisonous gases.” According to her, <b>the IDF filled the tunnel in which he was held with gas, and [her] son was poisoned to death."</b></p><p>Her full reasoning can't be assessed, but here's some commentary she added: </p><p>“Ron was kidnapped because of the criminal negligence of all the senior officials of the army and the damned government who gave the order to eliminate him in order to settle a score with some terrorist from Jabalya.” The mother claimed that “they found that he also had several crushed fingers, apparently due to his desperate attempts to get out of the poison grave that the IDF buried in him when he tried to breathe air, but he only breathed IDF poison. There is no future for this country if this is what they did to you after they abandoned you that Saturday. What was the decision if Bibi’s son was there in the terrorist’s tunnel or Gallant’s grandson? Or the son of Hertzi Halevi? Would they also have been poisoned with gas bombs?”</p><p>On the 12/14 strike - The Messenger via MSN: <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/top-hamas-commander-who-survived-two-assassination-attempts-killed-in-israeli-airstrike/ar-AA1jVLnp">Top Hamas Commander Who Survived Two Assassination Attempts Killed in Israeli Airstrike (msn.com)</a> - no mention of any chemical weapons employed in the operation. </p><p>Before, October 26, Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal: "We have information from trusted sources that the [US's] plan with Israel is to send special American/Israeli forces, administered by the US and executed either by Israel or combined [US and Israel] to... use nerve gases, aiming to paralyse the capabilities of Palestinian soldiers in the tunnels and trenches without killing him so they do not kill the hostages or captives held in these tunnels," he said. (<a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-palestine-war-former-hamas-chief-claims-israel-planning-flood-gaza-tunnels-nerve-gas?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Social_Traffic&utm_content=ap_lcavafe4pe">Middle East Eye</a> ) But this wouldn't explain hostages in the tunnels dying. </p><p>Sponge bombs? This came up at the same time. In itself, the stuff is dangerous to the eyes, but otherwise non-toxic. <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/does-israel-really-have-sponge-bombs-for-sealing-tunnels">Does Israel Really Have 'Sponge Bombs' For Sealing Tunnels? (thedrive.com)</a> Nothing meant to kill has been publicly discussed. But a tunnel sealed with sponge material might become extra lethal if any kind of gas was then poured in. We also know they've flooded some tunnels with sea water. As far as I know, that's what they did here. </p><p>"Also, on December 12, 2023, the IDF recovered the bodies of Aden [Eden] Zakaria and Ziv Dado from the same area." (<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/other/idf-fails-to-confirm-gaza-hostages-cause-of-death-mother-claims-poisoning/ar-AA1n7NnB">Jerusalem Post via MSN</a>) Both are now thought to be killed on 10/7, bodies kidnapped to Gaza for later exchange. But both were considered missing until found dead. Were they actually kidnapped alive and then killed in this same incident, or another incident related to the same assault? I've seen no details like the state of decay they were in when found. </p><p><b><u>December 15 IDF Shooting</u>: </b>Truly appalling - Alon Shimriz and Yotam Haim from Kfar Aza, along with Samer Talalka kidnapped near Nir Am, were somehow free and wandering Shejaya under Israel's bombing and then ground assault. We don't even know the story they would tell about how they escaped captivity before they found fellow Israelis, approaching the IDF soldiers cautiously with a white flag. The soldiers apparently saw a ruse and opened fire, killing 2 (unclear which) and wounding the third. He hid and cried for help in Hebrew. The shooting stopped, then somehow resumed, and the third guy was also killed. The IDF just cannot get these people back home alive, even when they escape on their own and even when they do that AND survive the first round of inexplicable shooting. There just has to be another round of shooting. (you should know this story - <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/16/middleeast/what-we-know-hostages-killed-israel-gaza/index.html">CNN</a> just in case)</p><p><b><u>January 15 IDF airstrike</u>: </b>Killed on or around Jan. 15 after an IDF airstrike: Yossi Sharabi, 51 and Itay Svirsky, 38, from Be'eri. Eitan Levy was also killed. Details left unresolved on my end. </p><p>A posts on the Jan. 15 Hamas video - <a href="https://twitter.com/OliLondonTV/status/1746998477593203160">https://twitter.com/OliLondonTV/status/1746998477593203160</a>: an injured Noa Argamani says an IDF airstrike killed Sharabi and Svirsky. But Oli notes "one of the men appears to have died from a severe head wound with the other showing signs of strangulation- pointing to Hamas being responsible for their deaths. It comes after the terror group released a video game style propaganda video asking viewers to guess which hostages were alive or dead."</p><p>January 15, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-says-it-fears-for-lives-of-two-hostages-after-latest-hamas-propaganda-video/">Times of Israel</a> - <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kibbutz-says-hostages-yossi-sharabi-itay-svirsky-murdered-in-hamas-captivity-in-gaza/ar-AA1n5ahY">via MSN</a>: IDF fears for the lives of the 2 men after seeing the video where they seem dead. </p><p>"IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Monday evening that Hamas’s claim that the military targeted a building where the three hostages were being held, killing two of them, was a lie. However, he indicated that it was possible that the hostages were located close to a building that was targeted by the IDF and may have been endangered." “Itay was not killed by our forces. This is a Hamas lie,” Hagari said. “The building where they were held was not a target and was not attacked by our forces.” They know this because “We did not know their exact location in real-time. We do not strike where we know there are hostages. In retrospect, we know that we attacked targets close to the location where they were held,” Hagari said, adding that the IDF was investigating the footage in the propaganda clip published by Hamas.</p><p>They won't strike unless they know the hostages aren't there - but they don't know where they were - it's "possible" they were in a nearby building. Actually, "in retrospect, we know" they were in a nearby building, but they aren't sure which one or how nearby. Couldn't they also be in the same building? Sure, but they didn't know that, and "the IDF do not strike where <i>we know</i> there are hostages." So if the IDF killed them, it was accidental, and the Hamas claim that the IDF accidentally killed them is a terrorist lie.</p><p>Add 2/11: Noa claims on video: F-16 strike, 3 rockets, 2 of which exploded. Only Yossi was killed then; Noa and Itay survived, were relocated, but Itay was killed by another IDF airstrike at that time. Between the two strikes, Noa says she suffered shrapnel injuries to the head and body. She also notes that food and water are running low. https://t.me/resistmirror1/2996</p><p>Hagari "said ... Hamas’s claim that the military targeted a building where the three hostages were being held, killing two of them, was a lie. ... “Itay was not killed by our forces. This is a Hamas lie.” If the unstated part is: "we only killed Yossi then. Itay came later," then he agrees with Hamas and Noa, wordplay aside. </p><p>Add 2/11: Eitan Levy died separately and much earlier - before Dec. 8. Not sure how he got mixed in with these reports. </p><p>https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-confirms-oct-7-death-of-be-eri-resident-dror-kaplun-with-archaeologists-help/ar-AA1lbCk2</p><p>"On Friday the Bat Yam municipality said Eitan Levy was dead. He was previously considered a hostage in Gaza. The municipality said it was informed Thursday night by the IDF that Levy was no longer alive. His body is held in Gaza. It was not clear how and when Levy was murdered."</p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Adds Feb. 11:</b> </span></p><p>Some listed as kidnapped and still alive, likely aren't, including an infant and a toddler. Embarrassingly, I had missed this story when it came up, and when I assembled this post. </p><p>Nov 29: Hamas says <b>10-month-old hostage Kfir Bibas was killed in Israeli bombing, alongside his brother, Ariel (4), and their mother, Shiri, in earlier bombing. </b>This was to explain why they weren't among those released at the time. But "Israeli authorities on Tuesday said they believed the family had been handed over by Hamas to another Palestinian militant group in a possible complication of efforts to free them." <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/29/hamas-says-10-month-old-hostage-kfir-bibas-was-killed-in-israeli-bombing">https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/29/hamas-says-10-month-old-hostage-kfir-bibas-was-killed-in-israeli-bombing</a></p><p>As of mid-February there's been no further news to challenge the Hamas claim, and these hostages have likely been dead for some time now. They're likely included in the ~50 early deaths, but add to the 11 considered above, for 14 likely killed in known IDF operations. But that's still not accepted, as people demand Kfir be brought home, and Oct7map lists "Yarden, Shiri, Kfir and Ariel Bibas, the entire Bibas family, were all kidnapped by Hamas. Bring them home." From Nir Oz. Father Yarden was likely kept separately and likely survived, at least to then. </p><p>I think these 2 children are the only ones Hamas still allegedly refuses to release. If so, note they already explained why they cannot ever release them, and as far as we can tell it's true.</p><p>One listed as just "murdered" was apparently killed in captivity - Ofir Tzarfati, 27 was abducted from the Nova party. He was reportedly severely wounded. "He was believed to have been kidnapped for over 50 days; it was only after his family received the devastating news that he had been murdered. A few days later, the IDF has retrieved his body in a special operation inside Gaza." https://oct7map.com/OfirTzarfati</p><p>Dec. 2: his family "was informed on Thursday that he was murdered by Hamas terrorists in the Gaza Strip." He likely died from his severe injury and lack of medical options, but that's just a guess. https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/israel-news/2243758/idf-recovers-captives-body-confirms-deaths-of-6-captives-in-gaza.html </p><p><b>2 new deaths reported Feb. 11:</b> Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip during the past 96 hours have killed two Israeli hostages and seriously injured eight others, Hamas's armed-wing Al Qassam Brigades announced on Sunday over the group's Telegram channel.</p><p>"Their conditions are becoming more dangerous in light of the inability to provide them with appropriate treatment.(Israel) bears full responsibility for the lives of those injured in light of their continued bombing," the statement said." Identities not provided.</p><p>That makes 16 and likely to grow. "Israel’s chief military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said on Tuesday that 31 of the remaining hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were dead." That's up 6 since a month ago, up 11 from mid-December - probably not counting these 2 new deaths.</p><p><a href="https://alqassam.ps/arabic/news/details/19818">اليوم الـ 128.. القسام يؤكد مقتل أسيرين وإصابة 8 آخرين : كتائب الشهيد عز الدين القسام (alqassam.ps)</a></p><p><a href="https://www.arabnews.jp/en/middle-east/article_115008/">https://www.arabnews.jp/en/middle-east/article_115008/</a></p><p>France 24 live updates for the 11th relate the claims of new deaths and notes, on the same day "Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said in an interview aired on Sunday that "enough" of the 132 remaining Israeli hostages held in Gaza are alive to justify Israel's ongoing war in the region." "We're going to try to do our best to get all those who are alive back and, frankly, also the bodies of the dead," he said in the interview with ABC's "This Week" programme." As long as this many remain alive, Israel will keep on killing them, refusing any ceasefire or concession even to save their lives, fearing that it would also spare Palestinian lives. <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240211-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-netanyahu-pledges-safe-passage-to-palestinian-civilians-ahead-of-rafah-operation">https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240211-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-netanyahu-pledges-safe-passage-to-palestinian-civilians-ahead-of-rafah-operation</a></p><p>Add 2/12: Qassam brigades says <b>three of the injured 8 hostages have now died</b>. That would make 5 more killed. They're waiting to see who else dies before releasing the names and final statuses. "The Al-Qassam Brigades announce the killing of 3 of the eight Zionist detainees who we announced yesterday were seriously injured in the barbaric Zionist raids on the Gaza Strip. We will postpone announcing the names and photos of the dead for days to come until the fate of the rest of the wounded becomes clear." https://t.me/resistmirror1/3927</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Feb. 13 add: Two Rescued! </span></b></p><p>Just after the above updates, I saw the big news - Israel claims to have rescued two hostages in Rafah and got them home alive, without making any deal with Hamas, and in fact killing some of their fighters, along with quite a few civilians. The rescued were named as Fernando Simon Marman (60) and Louis Har (70), who were kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak. </p><p>As luck would have it, Israel's actionable intel and opportunity came just as they aired a Superbowl ad about bringing home hostage dads. And these two fathers had Argentinian nationality. Argentina's bizarre new Libertarian-Fascist and highly pro-Israel president Javier Milei had just visited Israel on Feb. 9, urging the release of all Israeli hostages, including the 11 Argentinians believed to be held. "Milei said he would work to bring about the release of all the hostages, regardless of nationality: “There are Argentine nationals among the hostages as well, but this is a crime against humanity, and this must be redressed.”" </p><p><a href="https://jewishinsider.com/2024/02/javier-milei-argentina-israel-benjamin-netanyahu-jerusalem/">https://jewishinsider.com/2024/02/javier-milei-argentina-israel-benjamin-netanyahu-jerusalem/</a></p><p>These 11 included, "most famously, Shiri and Yarden Bibas and their redheaded sons Ariel, 4, and Kfir, 1." However, as noted above, that whole family, perhaps excluding Yarden, were likely killed by the IDF months ago. So there were probably 8 Argentines tops, and then 2 of them were rescued about three days later. Milei was soon thanking Israel for this feat, in even greater awe of their amazing powers. </p><p>That's all interesting and raises vague suspicions. Nonetheless, I don't suspect the event was faked or postdated as some have argued, finding that one of the men was freed in November and/or December, or from Khan Younis instead of Rafah, or that both were freed on February 2, not 12. The latter anyway is likely a typo and the others ... something. I haven't read up on all the details, but consider: "Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said special forces broke into a second-floor apartment in Rafah under fire at 1:49 a.m. Monday, accompanied a minute later by airstrikes on surrounding areas." As if describing the same thing, Gaza's Health Ministry says <b>at least 67 civilians were killed</b> in Rafah airstrikes at around "2 a.m." </p><p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-02-12-2024-4ade5edf47711c6b0c13d1380980de2b">https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-02-12-2024-4ade5edf47711c6b0c13d1380980de2b</a></p><p>There are aerial thermal imaging videos of the raid and a related bomb strike that Israel has published (from various posting on X, not cited here but not hard to find). These depict complex, rescue-like movements at a certain spot in Rafah. After some flailing and then a lucky break, I was actually able to geolocate the spot, by the matching details shown below (some labels for matching details, some indicating raid details, partly from the videos and here just copied for consistency, and another 100+ matching details not indicated): 31°17'46.01"N - 34°15'24.71"E. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvZs9YWB24hMq8nU5csuPqh5OnhrmUqnoJyJ5hYgguirRQKLPD-ZvAEi__PFcZdcAWkIRIOwk2d_QSlr3E6GK39Htmw9xG1e0W2MpXIMF7va9-wuUFZZL5i0GGQa6b8JV_WC_oFXrsxSz_Bva4Qa4Atz18NMa7yF_p75BEmCEX5dzFkTDgMWnj4OsMwvfU/s1297/Screenshot%20(5279).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1065" data-original-width="1297" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvZs9YWB24hMq8nU5csuPqh5OnhrmUqnoJyJ5hYgguirRQKLPD-ZvAEi__PFcZdcAWkIRIOwk2d_QSlr3E6GK39Htmw9xG1e0W2MpXIMF7va9-wuUFZZL5i0GGQa6b8JV_WC_oFXrsxSz_Bva4Qa4Atz18NMa7yF_p75BEmCEX5dzFkTDgMWnj4OsMwvfU/w640-h526/Screenshot%20(5279).png" width="640" /></a></div><p><a href="https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1757383431988941274">https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1757383431988941274</a></p><p>It's near city center, not on the outskirts at all. It seems the rescue was in the middle building with a red circle where a shooter was located. The building to the north has been hit and is intensely burning (purple box). The one to the south is also bombed on its roof, perhaps twice (there seems to be a hole above, at the yellow star, just before a powerful blast is shown there). It's not clear how many civilians died in this area vs. at the refugee camp also hit that night or in any other parts of Rafah, but the overall death toll wound up over 100 and still climbing as the severely injured continued to pass away. Children are of course included once again. <a href="https://twitter.com/doamuslims/status/1756860608941641763">https://twitter.com/doamuslims/status/1756860608941641763</a></p>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-91417268504483169202024-01-22T10:42:00.000-08:002024-01-22T12:46:25.083-08:00Words Without Truth: How the New York Times Helped Netanyahu Weaponize Sexual Violence Allegations Against the People of Gaza<p><b><span style="font-size: large;">October 7 Massacre in Israel, part 7</span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;">: Words Without Truth</span></b></p><p><b>How the New York Times Helped Netanyahu Weaponize Sexual Violence Allegations Against the People of Gaza</b></p><p><b>January 22, 2024</b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">1) A</span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;">Propaganda & Genocide Assist from the NYT?</span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></b></p><p>This post will review the New York Times' December 28 article "‘Screams Without Words’: How Hamas Weaponized Sexual Violence on Oct. 7." By Jeffrey Gettleman, Anat Schwartz and Adam Sella, New York Times, December 28, 2023 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/28/world/middleeast/oct-7-attacks-hamas-israel-sexual-violence.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/28/world/middleeast/oct-7-attacks-hamas-israel-sexual-violence.html</a></p><p>I've been incredibly slow to decide this was worth finishing and then to assemble it even this well. I was originally content to leave it with the great works of Max Blumenthal and the Gray Zone, among others. But now I'll just start there; with some double-checking and other research of my own, some points and thoughts came up that I think improve the record. So this is a worthwhile read, if I've boiled it down well enough for you.</p><p>As the report's opening summary says "A two-month investigation by The Times uncovered painful new details, establishing that the attacks against women were not isolated events but part of a broader pattern of gender-based violence on Oct. 7." This seems to confirm Israeli officials who "say that everywhere Hamas terrorists struck — the rave, the military bases along the Gaza border and the kibbutzim — they brutalized women,"</p><p>First of all, even if every claim in this article were true, that would not provide any legitimate legal reason for Israel's current or planned genocide program(s) in Gaza or anywhere else (and it classes as genocide by at least some <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide_definitions">relevant definitions</a>). The radical Netanyahu government and apparently the majority of Israel's populace seem to feel that the mass rape DOES explain their trajectory just fine; only the details of Hamas' alleged violence need to be considered in deciding the fate of Gaza and its 2 million inhabitants, because international law doesn't apply to Israel, as THE aggrieved victims of a brand new "Holocaust." </p><p>Now that the Jewish state has been provoked ... should they kill some or all of Gaza's people, using bombs, hunger, thirst and disease, or maybe with a nuke, as some inside and outside the government have argued? Or should they simply threaten these in combination as the alternative to a massive "voluntary relocation?" Both notions are floated openly, with expulsion taken as the "logical" and "humane" option. Officially, no such genocide or ethnic cleansing is planned, but the "war" Israel has waged so far leaves these paths wide open by making Gaza essentially a living hell. </p><p>Do Israeli settlements in Gaza return and then expand? Should they just settle the whole strip, and/or shorten the route of their hoped-for Ben Gurion Canal, running it right through Gaza? (see <a href="https://www.eurasiareview.com/17112023-the-ben-gurion-canal-israels-potential-revolutionary-alternative-to-suez-analysis/">Eurasia Review</a>) Do they take the West Bank too? Then on to the East Bank, into Lebanon, Syria and everything else "God promised them" long ago? It's all in happy discussion, after it was "proven" that - in particular - Israeli babies were beheaded and Israeli women were raped in the genocidal Palestinian incursion of October 7. (it does also count by SOME definitions, but Israelis insist if any one party is guilty of genocide - and they assume just one party CAN be guilty - then it must be Hamas, who they say DELIBERATELY killed babies, and who raped women.)</p><p>So the allegations offer no legal justification, but they drive Israelis anyway, and for the rest of us, the truth matters in its own ways. The main question we'll consider here is<i> <b>if</b> the mass rape claims are true</i>, at least judging by the provided evidence. The way it's piled up in the Times report, Hamas mass rape can seem pretty conclusive. But after sorting and considering ... the lodged claims have always been curiously short on supporting evidence, are often dubious or implausible, frequently change over time, and whenever there are enough specifics to compare with other evidence, the rape stories tend to clash with it, and to lose that clash. </p><p>It remains all but impossible to prove a negative, like "rape did NOT happen," but the provided evidence FOR it has been seen to fail. So it seems <i>likely </i>the published stories were partly or entirely invented, probably in order to give Israel its supposed blank check for genocide and ethnic cleansing. This kind of allegation is akin to the "blood libel" long directed at Jews - incitement to communal hatred and perhaps to genocide. Those found guilty of such fabrications to fuel Nazi aggression and the Holocaust were certainly not tolerated by the civilized world, and found guilty of the crimes they encouraged and concealed (see the case of Hans Fritzsche). </p><p>The Israelis would surely know what they're doing spreading such tales against the Palestinians as they set about re-writing Gaza's future. And Gettleman, Schwartz and Sella at the Times likely know what they're doing in assisting this effort, apparently having avoided any kind of second-checking or scrutiny as they essentially megaphoned Tel Aviv's hateful propaganda. </p><p>Maybe they had a lucky break, journalistically, and the claims wound up being true anyway. Let's have a detailed check how likely that is.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">2) Evidence Overview: No Medical, No Video - Just Words </span></b></p><p>The Times heard from a government official about three women and one man who survived Hamas rape and were in counseling, but “None of them has been willing to come physically for treatment,” let alone to tell their story. After serious inducements to come forward with any story, true or false, this is all they even claim to have. </p><p>Orit Sulitzeanu, executive director of the Association of Rape Crisis Centers in Israel told the Times “Many people are looking for the golden evidence" of survivor testimony, but he urged "don’t put this pressure on this woman.” That's fair enough when the PROPER response would include "doubting (questioning) the (alleged) victim" anyway. </p><p>Sulitzeanu says we can leave the survivors alone because “The corpses tell the story” and they tell it widely. But that story was generally not taken down before the bodies were buried. The severe lack of medical evidence has been widely noted. It's not just that images haven't been made public - in many cases, alleged abuses wind up lacking any documentation anywhere. The Times finds no differently, noting the Jewish religious imperative to bury the dead swiftly, and quoted "Moshe Fintzy, a deputy superintendent and senior spokesman of Israel’s national police, said, “<b>We have zero autopsies</b>, zero,” making an O with his right hand." They never did carefully figure out who was killed by Hamas' bullets, blades, or penises as opposed to weapons the IDF was using on the same battlefield. That could only complicate the crucial finding that Hamas killed them all.</p><p>And it seems there was an absolute and total failure to check for or against sexual assault. As the Times reported: "The Israeli police have acknowledged that, during the shock and confusion of Oct. 7, the deadliest day in Israeli history, they were not focused on collecting semen samples from women’s bodies, requesting autopsies or closely examining crime scenes. At that moment, the authorities said, they were intent on repelling Hamas and identifying the dead."</p><p>A professor reminded the Times how “armed conflict is so chaotic” it's only natural that if the army is dropping bombs, the police forget how to collect evidence, or something like that. </p><p>So negative findings were not risked, and the question of rape was left up to the public's imagination, and of course Israeli officials have tried to lead that imagination. They insist the rapes were real, massive, and systematic and that - despite the almost total lack of evidence - <i>everybody knows that, </i>so that anyone who <i>pretends</i> to have doubts is an antisemite who secretly rejoices in the mass rape of Israeli women and girls (and even men). </p><p>Some of those who handled the bodies have reported consistent clues. Many of them are noted as unqualified to understand what they see, but some are quite imaginative, and get cited like experts in this report and before. Perhaps most prolific is "Captain Maayan," this time telling the Times how one woman had her fingernails pulled out. She and others have spoken of indirect evidence for especially brutal rape, like broken pelvises and legs. They don't say if the whole bodies were damaged like this, after being found in a tank-flattened house or a hellfire-ravaged car, or in the line of Hamas' explosive weaponry, but that seems likely enough. </p><p>In a similar vein, "The Times also viewed a video, provided by the Israeli military, showing two dead Israeli soldiers at a base near Gaza who appeared to have been shot directly in their vaginas," perhaps among other shots to every part of the body, or perhaps in the targeted way they suggest. Still, those were soldiers that, as we all know, Hamas executed at will. And that's still not quite rape. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6mOKej4SvA_bmbFPoVwZG6JzOG-GYece1Yr7EDEi8OJEqn0syghHc4pZFgl6JIroyVtptTjrGR7z445vy9Ur1sRlEztsoEqyjFhPJoPK0AxvYC_epV0q461TLdKtebzSGBnxMGZtnem1WW6pLXFULoELmy6KeSKC0mhL6P4oI4Wn1CUpE4MW-SPmje6jM/s915/Screenshot%20(5168).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="915" data-original-width="665" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6mOKej4SvA_bmbFPoVwZG6JzOG-GYece1Yr7EDEi8OJEqn0syghHc4pZFgl6JIroyVtptTjrGR7z445vy9Ur1sRlEztsoEqyjFhPJoPK0AxvYC_epV0q461TLdKtebzSGBnxMGZtnem1WW6pLXFULoELmy6KeSKC0mhL6P4oI4Wn1CUpE4MW-SPmje6jM/s320/Screenshot%20(5168).png" width="233" /></a></div>"The Times viewed photographs of one woman’s corpse that emergency responders discovered in the rubble of a besieged kibbutz with dozens of nails driven into her thighs and groin." It seems quite possible the house collapse - likely after an IDF tank attack - is what drove nails into this part of her body and perhaps other parts, besides other random cruelties that occur when a house collapses on you. See the example image at right, (NOT the same image the Times saw) and consider how justified the caption would be. Likely all of it was called "torture" in the official investigation; Maybe "Hamas" tore off someone's right arm with a splintered and burning section of support beam, etc..<div> <div>In this case, the Times reporter(s) seem to endorse this reading, having seen the image. But this reading differs from that of 2 rescuers describing what is most likely the same scene, despite the differences. If so, note the variance between the recorded and the remembered. </div><div><br /></div><div>A ZAKA rescuer saw with "professional eyes" a naked woman with a single "sharp object" stuck in "the intimate area of her body," along with "part of a ceiling" in "a building that was completely destroyed." (<a href="https://twitter.com/MorHogeg/status/1729140621859049690">https://twitter.com/MorHogeg/status/1729140621859049690</a>) Another ZAKA rescuer reports "<b>two women </b>in Be'eri tied to beds, one with <b>a knife in her vagina and her organs removed</b>. After brutally violating these women, Hamas detonated the house on them, so we found them beneath a pile of stones." (<a href="https://unherd.com/2023/11/metoo-unless-youre-a-jew/">MeToo unless you're a Jew - UnHerd</a>) - (<a href="https://twitter.com/MarinaMedvin/status/1725849292001149391">MarinaMedvin on X</a>) - "One was sexually terrorised with a knife stuck in her vagina and all her internal organs removed," (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67629181">BBC 12/5</a>). A knife, some nails, whatever. It was some deliberate Hamas cruelty prior to the house collapse, which Hamas also engineered.</div><div><br /></div><div>To their credit, the NYT did not include the allegation of some rescuers of a pregnant woman cut open so the terrorists could remove and execute her fetus before her eyes. That was an absolute crock with only the thinnest links to reality, as I established <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/12/executing-pregnant-woman-and-her-fetus.html">here</a> on December 18. A December 5 <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67629181">BBC report</a> had included it (but differentlty, with "her foetus stabbed while it was inside her.") noting "The BBC has not been able to independently verify this account, and Israeli media reports have questioned some testimony from volunteers working in the traumatic aftermath of the Hamas attacks."<br /><div><p>The Times report also noted "Some emergency medical workers now wish they had documented more of what they saw," to bolster their outlandish descriptions. Their "deep respect for the dead" is cited for failing to do so, and also “we are not allowed to take pictures,” as ZAKA southern operations director Yossi Landau said, explaining why he didn't take any. “In retrospect, I regret it.” Others were seemingly allowed, but say they just didn't have the time (see "G" below), or they refused to photograph the evidence because of "personal limits" (<a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/12/col-golan-vach-tank-fire-and-8-babies.html">Col. Golan Vach</a>, referring to charred and beheaded baby he swears he saw in Be'eri). Any combination of these reasons is sure to explain why they almost never have any visual evidence. </p><p>Widespread, systematic rape as alleged would likely be captured on video in at least a few cases, when Hamas body cameras, common dashboard cameras, security cameras and mobile phones were all widely in play, and used to document quite a few real acts of violence. As the Times report "The Israeli authorities have no shortage of video evidence" from all these sources "showing Hamas terrorists killing civilians and many images of mutilated bodies." If they had ANY footage of a rape or related activities occurring, that's the place it should be mentioned. But it seems even from this large catalog, carefully scrutinized, no such footage was located. I'm not saying this stuff never happened, just that it seemingly<b> never happened in front of a camera anywhere</b>, which is strange in light of the alleged scale of the abuse.</p><div>There has been imagery cited as <i>indirect</i> evidence for rape, with at least 3 scenes apparently included in Israel's 43-minute private-screening atrocity video. As I reviewed that in <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/12/the-43-minute-atrocity-video.html">part 4</a>, these scenes were:</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq_JH4CJS0mVNXatgWOmdnQTYx3ZPQKKIlfrEqg3zNIhfOlMjGpsIeGEGrUr-5q1YTfLmUMJhwExgByJo-HWzAgAHWVhmt4JYrvUcOyyC9OzAMiienwujyU_sCb7nSuAbymhlF5wjxDMRweyKsm9SRZ_VsgB4nGrHmcswop938KYLgaIMiKqzvymgPMO3x/s684/10-7_rape_fake.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="610" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq_JH4CJS0mVNXatgWOmdnQTYx3ZPQKKIlfrEqg3zNIhfOlMjGpsIeGEGrUr-5q1YTfLmUMJhwExgByJo-HWzAgAHWVhmt4JYrvUcOyyC9OzAMiienwujyU_sCb7nSuAbymhlF5wjxDMRweyKsm9SRZ_VsgB4nGrHmcswop938KYLgaIMiKqzvymgPMO3x/w178-h200/10-7_rape_fake.png" width="178" /></a></div>* relevant / inconclusive (bloody pants can have a few causes)</div><div><br /></div><div>* irrelevant / fake (recycled photo of a killed Kurdish fighter - adding <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67629181">BBC 12/5</a> seems to mention this scene as genuine ("women naked from the waist down, or with their underwear ripped to one side"), shortly after it had been exposed and removed from the Israeli-run Hamas-Massacre.net website and apparently from the IDF's 43-minute video, whereas Jewish News editor Jotam Confino describes it clearly enough as included back in late October ("on the grass" "her panties taken half off"))</div><div><br /></div><div>* relevant / even worse (a <b>possible Apache helicopter victim, re-posed hours after death to suggest rape</b>).</div><div><br /></div><div>The latter became central to this Times report as "the woman in the black dress," now identified as Gal Abdush. That story has been central for me as well, but decentralized in coverage - see section 5 below, linking to an earlier post I had included her in. I hope to assemble a dedicated review post, especially now that <b>the alleged rape victim's family is complaining about </b><b>the Times' part in spreading a bloated myth. </b>They should be better informed than the reporters, and they had no reason to suspect Gal had been raped, until the reporters convinced some of them, then pretended it was the other way around, citing the family as further evidence for rape. Others remain unconvinced and feel misled; Gal's sister Miral Alter put it: <b>"</b><b>If we knew that it was a headline like rape slaughter, we would never agree. Never.” </b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>But first, some consideration of two other lines of evidence that were central to the Times report: </div><div>- two pairs of direct (alleged) witnesses (each containing a "security consultant") claiming to have seen rape, murder and mutilation at the rave, and </div><div>- a military paramedic who says he saw 2 teenage sisters who had clearly been raped.</div><div> </div><div>Noting that military members and "security consultants" are especially likely to assist in a state-sponsored coverup and propaganda operation, it should be little surprise that their shifting stories clash with the more credible evidence, and of course none of them has a single image to back up any of it. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: medium;">3) The "Security Consultant" Witnesses to Rapes at the Rave </span></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b>3A) Four Witnesses with Two (Final) Stories</b></div><div>The Times relied heavily on two alleged witnesses, each backed with a more B-list co-witness, to the rape, murder, torture and mutilation of several young women fleeing the Nova music festival, along highway 232. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Raz Cohen</b> is "a young Israeli who had also attended the rave and had worked recently in the Democratic Republic of Congo training Congolese soldiers," as the Times notes. Picture caption: "Raz Cohen, <b>a security consultant</b>, survived the Oct. 7 attacks by hiding in a dried-up streambed." - elsewhere he's noted as "a discharged officer from the Maglan Patrol," an elite reconnaissance unit. <a href="https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/local/655200/">(kan.org.il Dec. 14)</a> It's unclear why he was discharged - perhaps partying and drugs.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Times heard from Cohen in "an hour-and-a-half interview in a Tel Aviv restaurant." He claims he hid in a dry riverbed "along Route 232 ... about a mile southwest of the party area," when he witnessed five Palestinian men in civilian clothes in a white van, "all carrying knives and one carrying a hammer" pull up "maybe 40 yards in front of him." Cohen says he watched the men drag a "young, naked and screaming" woman across the ground to a spot where they gathered. “She’s standing up," he recalled. "They start raping her. I saw the men standing in a half circle around her. One penetrates her. She screams. ... Then one of them raises a knife,” he said, “and they just slaughtered her.” The Times let Cohen provide the article's title, from his poetic line: "I still remember her voice, screams without words.” </div><p>Hiding along with Raz was "<b>Shoam Gueta</b>, one of Mr. Cohen’s friends and a fashion designer" who also spoke with the Times, with a more vague version of the same story. He says the attackers were “talking, giggling and shouting” as they assaulted the woman, "and that one of them stabbed her with a knife repeatedly, “literally butchering her.”" FWIW Gueta might be the one who designed Cohen's cloak for an October 7 propaganda fashion show. (<a href="https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1741364790407180448">https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1741364790407180448</a>) </p><div>Raz Cohen gets the purpose of these stories and the motive why he might exaggerate or invent one: he said in one interview to Israeli media he plans to re-enlist in the IDF to join the fight in Gaza or wherever, because "I need revenge, to live with myself" after allegedly witnessing those horrors, and being unable to stop or document them. <b>"After this" - including the unsupported story he tells - "Gaza [will] not continue to be [on] the map."</b></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/Wahb_Allat/status/1712070021999165825">https://twitter.com/Wahb_Allat/status/1712070021999165825</a></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>"Sapir</b>," a 24-year-old accountant, "has become one of the Israeli police’s key witnesses," the Times reported. Her name full name is withheld for fear of "hounding." She sounds easy to dox, and perhaps eager for it, thinking herself well-poised for a profile-raising lawsuit. She gave the Times "a two-hour interview outside a cafe in southern Israel" </div><div><br /></div><div>Around 8 a.m., Sapir says, "she was hiding under the low branches of a bushy tamarisk tree, just off Route 232, about four miles southwest of the party." From there she saw "groups of heavily armed gunmen" - around 100 in total, some seeming military and some civilian, "<b>rape and kill at least five women</b>" as the Times put it. In the report itself, she describes seeing just two women raped <i>and</i> killed, three others raped but not killed (that she saw), and 3 more perhaps raped, and killed out of her view - she claims she just saw their <b>severed heads</b>. That's for a total of 8 victims spoken of. </div><div><br /></div><div>"<b>Yura Karol</b>, a 22-year-old <b>security consultant</b>, said he was hiding in the same spot, and he can be seen in one of Sapir’s photos." He relates the same basic story in a more second-hand way.</div><div><br /></div><div>Some the twisted details told by Sapir: First rape: "One man pulled her by the hair and made her bend over. Another penetrated her, Sapir said, and every time she flinched, he plunged a knife into her back." Then she claims to have seen "another woman “shredded into pieces.” While one terrorist raped her, she said, another pulled out a box cutter and sliced off her breast," and started a game of toss-the-severed-breast just for fun, as the rape continued. She says they sliced her face, and then the victim "fell out of view" - likely executed, but she didn't claim to see. "Around the same time, she said, she saw three other women raped and terrorists carrying the severed heads of three more women," killed barbarically after what crimes she could only imagine. </div><div><br /></div><div>Just from Sapir's amazing spot, she claims to have witnessed 5+ rapes, 5+ murders, including 3+ beheaded women. As noted above, there are reportedly four rape survivors identified in the whole massacre. There are still zero rapes among the dead actually proven from all that physical evidence Israel had access to. And there are still zero beheaded women actually verified, identified, visually documented or credibly reported. She saw more than everyone else combined! She does suggest it was an unusual spot in this regard: “It was like an assembly point.” And if fighters and civilian rapists knew to congregate their crimes here for Sapir and Yura to see, that might go to show the whole thing was systematic, a planned part of Hamas' campaign of genocide.</div><div><br /></div><div>In fact, the police have specified that they do NOT have the supporting evidence: According to Mondoweiss, Haaretz reported that “investigators were unable to identify the women who, according to the testimony of [Sapir] and other eyewitnesses, were raped and murdered.” Israeli Police Superintendent Adi Edry told the paper, “I have circumstantial evidence, but ultimately my duty is to find evidence that supports her testimony and to find the victims’ identity. At this stage I don’t have those specific corpses.” (<a href="https://mondoweiss.net/2024/01/family-of-key-case-in-new-york-times-october-7-sexual-violence-report-renounces-story-says-reporters-manipulated-them/">Family of key case in New York Times October 7 sexual violence report renounces story, says reporters manipulated them – Mondoweiss</a>)</div><div><p>So there's no evidence past the words of Sapir and Yura, when there probably should be some. But it was good enough for the New York friggin' Times. </p><p><b>3B) 4 Witnesses, Zero Visual Evidence </b></p></div><div><p>Both Raz Cohen and Sapir are said to have visually proven their presence at the rave, or along Route 232 north or south of it, during the chaotic efforts to flee. That had become an issue after prolific alleged witness Niko Ostroga was found to have fabricated his presence to witness the killing of 29 friends. (<a href="https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1734995131776762109">Max Blumenthal on X (twitter.com)</a>) Both witnesses also had a second witness to claim hiding with them to corroborate their stories. But all four of them failed to record - by video, still images, audio, or any form - the rapes they claim to have seen in broad daylight. </p></div><div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtXkEOuwQXKk7jgLm332PDSn6xbNKWJPxVVsXCTUFA5az3W_f0TNv80GrYS947b-ejwO_1X5mSQA2flxrCeUyufw7yroO-1JIpfGL1t_AjOx9M0_wqOaCjUt5jHjmPEfN2obwlh6W70MUscxzp6PsCjOpjDWGZ0wYt3w-vpkZfuwznFu5_Ld4RxKLtzvbs/s1167/10-7_Raz_Cohen_caption.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1167" data-original-width="726" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtXkEOuwQXKk7jgLm332PDSn6xbNKWJPxVVsXCTUFA5az3W_f0TNv80GrYS947b-ejwO_1X5mSQA2flxrCeUyufw7yroO-1JIpfGL1t_AjOx9M0_wqOaCjUt5jHjmPEfN2obwlh6W70MUscxzp6PsCjOpjDWGZ0wYt3w-vpkZfuwznFu5_Ld4RxKLtzvbs/w249-h400/10-7_Raz_Cohen_caption.jpg" width="249" /></a></div>Raz Cohen posted this image of him smiling as he hid from Hamas gunmen in a dry riverbed (on the left, with perhaps Gueta on the right - <a href="https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1741561488148488368">via Max B. on X</a> - text added by me). This photo could be posed in any old "wadi" (as the Arabs call them), but it's likely enough he was at the rave and this is him hiding, just feeling in no immediate danger. But of course, he posted no image of himself frowning after witnessing a horrific rape, and of course, he posted and presumably took no recording of the event.</div><div><br /></div><div>"Sapir," as the Times reports, "provided photographs of her hiding place and her wounds, and police officials have stood by her testimony and released a video of her, with her face blurred, recounting some of what she saw." But of course, she had no video of what she saw to prove one bit of the elaborate butchery she reports. She even specifies that she relied only on her eyes and/or imagination: "I looked at all this as if I was photographing them with my eyes, not forgetting any detail. I told myself: I should remember everything." And then she would need to insist that everyone believes those are actual memories, and maybe scream antisemitism if anyone doubts her.</div><div><br /></div><div>Her co-witness "Yura Karol ... said he barely lifted his head to look at the road but he also described seeing a woman raped and killed." He too had no footage that's mentioned. He could lift his head, "barely," but his camera, not at all.</div><div><br /></div><div><div>There are legitimate reasons these four people might all fail to record the events they actually witnessed. But mainly this comes down to the increased danger of being spotted with a raised camera. But the same issue applies to raising their eyes to see, and that was allegedly no problem. </div><div><br /></div><div>Furthermore, Cohen and perhaps Karol - as "security consultants" with some military training - might know better than most how to covertly film something without being spotted. Cohen was with the Maglan Unit 212 a reconnaissance unit of the IDF, which "specializes in operating behind enemy lines and deep in enemy territory using advanced technologies and weaponry." Maglan means Ibis, "a bird that knows how to adapt in every situation." <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maglan">Maglan - Wikipedia</a> With the confidence of his training, he was able to take a smiling selfie and some other brief video, and to keep his head and eyes high enough to witness a Hamas rape. But he couldn't figure out how his camera lens could join his eyes there? </div><div><br /></div><div>They probably failed to record these rapes because there was nothing to film. They didn't even think to claim or stage anything, probably, because the whole idea emerged later. Either way, it was good enough for New York friggin' Times.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>3C) 4 Witnesses with Changing Stories</b></div><div><br /></div><div>If any of these people had witnessed these crimes, they would also likely mention them in their emergency calls, which would likely be recorded and might be released as proof. But so far, I'm not aware of any such evidence emerging. Did they fail to report these crimes as well as failing to document them? </div><div><br /></div><div>They might mention the crimes in the media interviews, and of course they have. But there are troubling discrepancies. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Gray Zone noted how, on Nov. 8th, an unnamed woman told Haaretz she saw just one rape: victim bent over, killed by a shot to the head, and then mutilated. Her unnamed friend “didn’t see the rape,” but heard it and had the visuals described. (<a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2024/01/10/questions-nyt-hamas-rape-report/">https://thegrayzone.com/2024/01/10/questions-nyt-hamas-rape-report/</a>) This is almost certain to be "Sapir" and Yura Karol. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67629181">BBC, Dec. 5</a>, were shown video of an interview with "witness S" who still describes just one rape victim: "S mimes the attackers picking up and passing the victim from one to another. ... the men cut off parts of the victim's body during the assault. "They sliced her breast and threw it on the street," she says. "They were playing with it." Then "The victim was passed to another man in uniform, she continues. "He penetrated her, and shot her in the head before he finished. He didn't even pick up his pants; he shoots and ejaculates." <b>A few weeks later to the Times, Sapir seems to add a second rape-murder, moving the mastectomy but not the execution to this second victim, and seems to add 3 more rapes, 3 severed heads, more stabbing, and no mention of shooting. Or maybe she just didn't mention those details at first. </b></div><div><br /></div><div>And as the Gray Zone noted, Yura (or the similar co-witness of "S") said in November that he "didn't see the rape" but only heard it. Dy late December he “described seeing a woman raped and killed.” </div></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>Raz Cohen's first media interviews - like his Instagram photo - fail to reflect his most powerful claims. A <a href="https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1743419353586913664">compilation video</a> by My Lord Bebo on X remains useful; in 4 interviews published October 9 - at least the shared portions - he recalls hiding under the stage and then in the wadi, and seeing people killed including with knives, prior to the army showing up and killing no one that he mentions. (but in one interview, he seem abnormally concerned with or distracted by a helicopter flying nearby.) Nothing related to rape is mentioned. Then on the 10th Cohen gave an interview to PBS News Hour where he suddenly mentions the rape-murder in detail, and it was a main feature of all later interviews. </div><div><br /></div><div>The clear impression is he decided or was compelled to add this detail for some reason. </div><div>The Gray Zone's "Screams Without Proof" article took this line, only to learn that it did come up on the first day - but just once, and apparently mentioned off-camera, as related by the reporter, Ariel Oseran. Author <a href="https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1745696908675260572">Max Blumenthal on X</a> issued an update after seeing the fuller broadcast (from i24) including Oseran's attached "second-hand summary of comments Cohen supplied to him after <b>bolting the interview for "emotional support"</b> at Barzalai Hospital in Ashkelon. According to Oseran, while hiding from infiltrators from Gaza, Cohen claimed to have <b>listened </b>to the sounds of Palestinian infiltrators "raping Israeli women, dead, alive, some injured. He told me he could hear this. ... <b>he chose not to look</b>, but he could hear them laughing constantly."</div><div><br /></div><div>Some emergency emotional support could help one to go ahead with reporting the actual truth, or to cope with speaking a terrible lie that's meant to justify acts of genocide. He would say the experience of <i>hearing</i> multiple rapes and at least one rape-murder and some necrophilia had kept him from speaking of it until he had some "emotional support," and kept him from saying it on camera until the next day. But by then, he was clear that he visually SAW just the ONE rape-murder he mentions from then on. </div><div><br /></div><div>In fact, in a Kan interview, Dec. 18, he says "<b>I couldn't hear her</b>, I think they blocked her mouth." (<a href="https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/local/657750/">העד הגלוי הראשון למעשי האונס</a>) But at first he could ONLY hear her, and later to the Times, he painfully recalled her "screams without words." </div><div><br /></div><div>Note how Raz Cohen originally had multiple-rape and necrophilia claims ("Israeli women, dead, alive, some injured"), then by October 10th he didn't. He wasn't at Sapir's mythical "assembly point." Sapir and Yura Karol were there, and so from November on, THEY had the multiple-rape and necrophilia claims. It's almost as if the narrative managers transfer atrocity claim files between their fake "security consultant" witnesses whenever they decide to re-organize them. </div><div><br /></div><div>Note also: Yura said in November that he "didn't see the rape," but then by late December he decided that he DID see it. Like Raz, he's a "security consultant." Two of two described "security consultant" witnesses wound up switching from hearing the rape(s) to actually seeing them. It's almost as if the narrative managers had their fake "security consultant" witnesses revise their stories to fit Israel's propaganda (or "hasbara") needs: "give us the kind of story after which "Gaza [will] not continue to be [on] the map." It needs to be terrible, and you need to have SEEN it, leaving no doubts."</div><div><br /></div></div><div><b>3D) Some Other Witnesses to Rapes at the Rave</b></div><div>At least two witnesses described to the Times women at the Nova rave seemingly raped and murdered around the site, One was in a rawhide vest, bound and bent over, and another whose "her vagina area appeared to have been sliced open, “as if someone tore her apart.” Both victims were only seen after the fact, if they were seen at all. Again, neither witness - a ZAKA rescuer, and an event organizer - was able to document it. </div><div><br /></div><div>There have been others that didn't make it into this report. For example:</div><div>On December 3 - as these other stories were coming out louder and thicker, there was at least one other reported by the New York Post which the Times' later report failed to follow-up on - perhaps due to credibility issues, even relative to the cases above, this 39-year-old alleged ravegoer didn't get a long interview in an Israeli cafe</div><div><a href="https://nypost.com/2023/12/03/news/horrific-new-stories-of-hamas-rapes-in-israel-surface-including-attack-on-woman-with-face-of-an-angel-who-screamed-to-be-killed/">https://nypost.com/2023/12/03/news/horrific-new-stories-of-hamas-rapes-in-israel-surface-including-attack-on-woman-with-face-of-an-angel-who-screamed-to-be-killed/</a></div><div><div>Yoni Saadon, a 39-year-old father of four and foundry shift manager, spoke to the UK’s Sunday Times, about witnessing two women killed, one after rape and the other for resisting rape. </div><div>first one witnessed "after pulling over him the body of a slain woman who had also been shot in the head — and smearing her blood on himself so it looked like he, too, was dead." </div><div><br /></div><div>“I saw this beautiful woman with the face of an angel and eight or 10 of the fighters beating and raping her,” ... “When they finished, they were laughing, and the last one shot her in the head,” he said. “I will never forget her face,” he said. “Every night I wake to it and apologize to her, saying, ‘I’m sorry.’"</div><div><br /></div><div>"Saadon said he eventually joined others who had fled the site and hid in trees and bushes. That’s when he witnessed two more Hamas gunmen attack another young woman who was resisting being stripped, he said." He wasn't hiding under anyone this time, but was still able to see this without being seen. </div><div>“They threw her to the ground, and <b>one of the terrorists took a shovel and beheaded her</b>,” Saadon told the UK outlet. “And her head rolled along the ground. I see that head, too,” when he wakes up at night, driven almost to madness by these terrible and ever-so-real memories.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>Not many witnesses mention decapitation along with rape as something they saw. So is this the same man? <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67629181">BBC, December 5</a>: "One man we spoke to from the festival site said he <b>heard</b> the "noises and screams of people being murdered, raped, <b>decapitated</b>". To our question about how he could be sure - without seeing it - that the screams he heard indicated sexual assault rather than other kinds of violence, he said he believed while listening at the time that it could only have been rape." Is that Mr. Saadon? Did he switch from hearing to seeing, like Cohen and Karol did? Or perhaps the reverse? If he's a "security consultant" like them, it isn't mentioned, but someone might want to check into that.</div><div><br /></div><div>Again, no camera - Saadon's or any of those he was hiding with in the second spot - was allowed to see the attempted rape or the shovel beheading he describes. A thing like that can only appear in words and, according to those words, in memories - a notoriously malleable medium. - Or - Hamas' most "unspeakable" crimes, somehow can <i>only</i> be spoken, never documented or proven. If you accept that premise, then this Times report and this Gaza genocide might be for you. And here are some more good reasons...</div><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">4) A Soldier/Paramedic: Two Teenage Sisters Raped</span></b></p><div>Again, rescuers claim they saw things. The Times report says "A paramedic in an Israeli commando unit said that he had found the bodies of two teenage girls in a room in Be’eri. One was lying on her side, he said, boxer shorts ripped, bruises by her groin. The other was sprawled on the floor face down, he said, pajama pants pulled to her knees, bottom exposed, semen smeared on her back.” In a surprise move, "Because his job was to look for survivors, he said, he kept moving and did not document the scene."</div><p>Importantly, the report adds: "Neighbors of the two girls killed — who were sisters, 13 and 16 — said their bodies had been found alone, separated from the rest of their family."</p><p>Max Blumenthal did some research here. Bringing it to the Times report authors in <a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2024/01/10/questions-nyt-hamas-rape-report/">Screams without proof: questions for NYT about shoddy ‘Hamas mass rape’ report - The Grayzone</a>: "That paramedic appears to be the same source CNN relied on in its own special report accusing Hamas of a systematic and deliberate campaign of rape on October 7. He is a supposed paramedic from Israeli Air Force Special Tactics rescue unit 669 identified only as “G.” And like your other sources, he has proven to be an unreliable, if not deeply dishonest, witness." CNN report with the same scene described in the same style, estimating the girls at age 13-14, from "G, a paramedic in Israel's elite 669 special tactics rescue unit," (spoken audio at 6:51 <a href="https://www.cnn.com/audio/podcasts/tug-of-war/episodes/edda8c6c-8df7-11ee-b79e-6f53a1559896">What We Know About Sexual Violence on October 7th - Tug of War - Podcast on CNN Audio</a>)</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1745706384769868081">Max B suspects</a> this G MIGHT be the same person who authored a book about his service in unit 669 as "Guy M," on government orders. If so, he's quite likely Guy Melamed, the son of Sagi Melamed, a self-proclaimed "fundraising sensei" who had promoted the book. Just out of caution, I won't endorse that link without further reading. For now there's Guy Melamed, and then there's the paramedic dubbed "G," <i>perhaps</i> that same Guy, who will here be called "this guy" or "G." </p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf94oq8vfHtvt0kAdCKUrd-ptTrYBuqlIt74z8GqxyUjNVa21wAn_CMf4t78BipJXcsXF1w63Trm9cv68nagZIlO3mvcDMx3TWvS7_SFY5kU1OF44C0iODHvORwbS7_y0QRDh4ik-kTIUgfdidrEAzHCSB506aI77wiiA1sjpBWQqKr32MgASQttRsBU90/s756/Screenshot%20(5252).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="411" data-original-width="756" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf94oq8vfHtvt0kAdCKUrd-ptTrYBuqlIt74z8GqxyUjNVa21wAn_CMf4t78BipJXcsXF1w63Trm9cv68nagZIlO3mvcDMx3TWvS7_SFY5kU1OF44C0iODHvORwbS7_y0QRDh4ik-kTIUgfdidrEAzHCSB506aI77wiiA1sjpBWQqKr32MgASQttRsBU90/s320/Screenshot%20(5252).png" width="320" /></a></div>Furthermore, <a href="https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1740659442671099907">Max notes</a>: "G" "was previously interviewed by the right-wing Republic TV of India," in a shared video clip. The "Chief sergeant, first class" speaks with his back turned. Max hears "a distinctive Brooklyn accent," FWIW, and it sounds like the voice heard on CNN. He describes the scene in question and also relates finding a dead baby stabbed all over, tossed into the garbage can. But only one baby was clearly reported among the dead on October 7, as Max noted: "Mila Cohen, who was accidentally shot, not stabbed, and who was not found in any garbage can. Once again, the NY Times failed to vet its sources and wound up turning to a proven fabulist for evidence." As we'll see, it seems very unlikely that this guy ever witnessed these two girls either. <p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrUoH7BnKJeqhB8DXEvgEY3-qP0SWcZy9PNZ4j63WqjZC8ALtk_pzysBTxxjayFOKr83R6ZGf4k7qyePwPVl8XgHvxZyqCUYnZSjOC-6DjzvPK7IQD6Yo0-I7XruPJImeFduYS_eH-jJiKU5eEJNki8XlnWFRg-QMTzeoeSlC1E4ZYOovCoQzM2SGX1BZG/s609/Screenshot%20(5250).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="328" data-original-width="609" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrUoH7BnKJeqhB8DXEvgEY3-qP0SWcZy9PNZ4j63WqjZC8ALtk_pzysBTxxjayFOKr83R6ZGf4k7qyePwPVl8XgHvxZyqCUYnZSjOC-6DjzvPK7IQD6Yo0-I7XruPJImeFduYS_eH-jJiKU5eEJNki8XlnWFRg-QMTzeoeSlC1E4ZYOovCoQzM2SGX1BZG/w400-h215/Screenshot%20(5250).png" width="400" /></a></div>Max Blumenthal aptly concluded that G's claims probably refer to the only two teenage sisters reported as killed in Be'eri, and those were aged 13 and 16 like the neighbors said. So it can hardly be doubted this refers to Yahel and Noiya Sharabi, who were reportedly killed alongside their mother Lianne, while their father and an uncle were kidnapped alive to Gaza. (at right: Yahel, 13 - Lianne, 48 - and Noiya, 16 - as they were in life) <p></p><p>The Gray Zone refuted the paramedic claim by citing reports that the bodies of Lianne, Noiya and Yahel were found 'cuddled together,' not separated and partly raped. But as mentioned in this <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-67245135">BBC report</a> along those lines, that's just what Lianne's parents in Bristol, England, were told. They never made contact that day and "Mrs Brisley said they later found out <b>the bodies of their daughter and grandchildren had been found by a soldier</b> "all cuddled together with Lianne doing what a mother would do - holding her babies in her arms, trying to protect them at the end". She took this as "a small comfort" in light of "horrible images in my mind," and some "soldier" found that for her.</p><p>How many different soldiers would have found the girls? Probably just one that's spoken up, and this probably refers to the guy in question. If so, he told grandma Brisley they were all found hugging and implicitly un-raped, and then told the world, by a few sources culminating with the New York Times, that the girls WERE apparently raped. </p><p>Such duplicity would make a certain sense, trying to spare the family from the truth, but letting the world see it so they can understand Israel's war aims. But it seems <b>neither of those stories from the soldier-rescuer(s) is true. </b></p><p><a href="https://www.thesun.ie/news/11504968/inside-house-yahel-sharabi-died-israel-hamas/">A more detailed report was run in the UK Sun on October 17</a> is based on family interviews and photographs from the site. According to this report, "It has been confirmed <b>Yahel died alongside her mum Lianne while her sister Noiya, 16, dad Eli, 51 and uncle Yossi, 53 were missing or kidnapped." </b><span style="background-color: #ffe599;">How could Noiya be found "cuddled" with the other two - or be seen raped and dead next to her sister - and also be declared "missing?"</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi841IDvdGE_kHeWKdhlP3RSwhVoSwYqS1x7-PxNWAFwDDJgIIHvqcuIP9sXEOXt6Cohh6Jwqyk0shp7aU84gkFggKRTf_LbqFHuE7DnExRIiDFYbOfeX3bV62IqQM7SqlwDDWdSDM-ILVXv5re5f-RVaXh71uE6FI3JKWOh4WYLrt0e0MPjEt1RBb3OLm/s960/10-7_Yahel_Bedroom.webp" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="691" data-original-width="960" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi841IDvdGE_kHeWKdhlP3RSwhVoSwYqS1x7-PxNWAFwDDJgIIHvqcuIP9sXEOXt6Cohh6Jwqyk0shp7aU84gkFggKRTf_LbqFHuE7DnExRIiDFYbOfeX3bV62IqQM7SqlwDDWdSDM-ILVXv5re5f-RVaXh71uE6FI3JKWOh4WYLrt0e0MPjEt1RBb3OLm/s320/10-7_Yahel_Bedroom.webp" width="320" /></a></div>Several images of the home are shown in the Sun report, displaying no sign of fire or shelling, suggesting the violence here was all by Hamas, not the IDF. "A hallway where a huge blackened smear of blood appears to be the spot where Lianne died. And upstairs, another bloodstain tells its horror story in a room where Yahel slept — heavily staining the carpet close to a pair of pink pyjamas and vanity case." The family dog was killed, just off frame of the living room photograph. Some blood was shed at least in the pantry, and some bloody blue fabric is seen in the room "where Yahel was slain." The single body is removed by the time of this photo, and the reported bloodstain is left off-frame.<p></p><p>But by this report, <b>Noiya's body was not found anywhere in the house</b>, and she was <b>declared missing</b> as of October 17. Her remains were found, likely somewhere else, and formally identified on October 22. (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/22/missing-16-year-old-british-girl-killed-in-hamas-attack-family-says">The Guardian 10/22</a>) Jewish News 10/25: "Noiya was identified through her teeth only two days ago." <a href="https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/we-just-buried-a-mother-and-two-daughters-when-the-father-is-missing-i-feel-this-is-a-second-holocaust/">We just buried a mother and two daughters and the father is missing. This is a second Holocaust' - Jewish News</a> Therefore, it's difficult to see how Noiya can be seen dead "in a room" with her sister, raped or otherwise, in the immediate aftermath. I'm really going to need to see verification for the paramedic's claim. But as it so happens, he failed to document this important crime scene, and no one else got a photo until after the two alleged bodies were removed. </p><p>Still ... it was a good enough story for the New York friggin' Times with its research department and so on. </p><p>Israeli media mouthpiece Eylon Levy <a href="https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1717109976420741504">cited the Republic interview</a> of this guy G, in a post on X offering to hook journalists up with the witness: "Israeli special forces paramedic describes the aftermath of the brutal rape and execution of Israeli girls in Be’eri during the October 7 Massacre." Here with translated captions, he describes two girls in "their own bedroom," as usual with one on the bed and one on the floor - then he mentions how "<b>the girl</b>" - not <i>one of</i> the girls - whom he estimated to be aged 14-15, "was laying on her bed - on the floor" (correcting himself), face down, with the signs he describes about the same as above, calling the rape "brutal, brutal." The other "girl" ... he doesn't say here. She wasn't "THE girl" or maybe not a girl at all, but the mother he <i>sometimes calls a girl, </i>and it seems less and less clear that she was raped. "The girl" was left to lie <b>"in the blood of her ... in a pile of blood."</b> He seems to correct himself before specifying WHOSE blood that was. Is that because he learned not to say "sister" and knew not to contradict it either?</p><p>Maybe he saw Lianne and Yahel and no third person, and decided both were "girls." But other reports had the two dying on separate floors, not together "in their bedroom." The other reports are preferable, and <b>it seems likely this guy "G" was not even present at the site.</b> He does seem informed, if still confused, about the 2-sisters vs. 2-females issue there, where he plugged his "memories" of Hamas rape evidence. Concurring with Max: "the NY Times failed to vet its sources and wound up turning to a proven fabulist for evidence."</p><p>Sagi, if that's your kid ... he's a moron.</p><p>P.S. Did G or anyone actually observe semen on the back of 13-year-old Yahel? Perhaps. But if so, the meaning isn't certain. Hamas invaders or others in their wake are probable culprits, of course - men sometimes rape even without orders. But if some other "rescuers" of the Haredi-staffed agencies ZAKA or United Hatzalah had arrived before him, it might matter that "like with many insular religious communities, the Haredis historically have an enormous sexual abuse problem." It's not limited to the infamous abuser Yehuda Meshi-Zahav, the disgraced and deceased ZAKA founder. (see: <a href="https://www.thewaywardrabbler.com/p/if-you-say-anything-to-anyone-a-zaka">"If You Say Anything to Anyone, a Zaka Van Will Run You Over" (thewaywardrabbler.com)</a>) I'm suggesting someone in their ranks <i>might </i>be willing to rape an attractive corpse, if not just for the twisted pleasure of it, then for the propaganda potential of the evidence he would leave behind. But I don't really suspect this; more likely, this rape evidence never existed outside the world of words. With maybe some scattered exceptions, I would guess no one raped anyone in this attack, at least for being far too busy with other things. </p><p>P.S. What happened to Noiya? We can only guess, and so I will. Her mother and sister may have been perceived as offering resistance and swiftly killed, or were killed on accident as the terrorists blasted through some locked door, or the like. Perhaps they were able to spare Noiya and take her captive, maybe injured. They might take her along with others to another house, where she and the rest were killed - perhaps by Hamas or, quite possibly, in one of the <b>IDF tank and/or helicopter attacks that seemingly collapsed several homes in Be'eri. </b>These mysterious events prevented several dozen abductions by killing the captives along with their captors, and it seems this happened by design. We've heard several accounts and even seen video from just one of these, but there were several others with stories left untold, and Noiya Sharabi's true story quite likely intertwines with one of those.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">5) Gal Abdush, Some Video Evidence, and the Misleading of a Family</span></b></p><p>The Times report led with the case of Gal Abdush, probably because there actually WAS video evidence involved in this rare case. As the Times relates the story, Gal attended the rave with her husband Nagi Abdush, until the attack began just after sunrise. They apparently fled early and made it some ways north on route 232 before they were killed under murky circumstances, leaving behind 2 children. <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/gal-and-nagi-abdush-34-35-couple-were-each-others-best-friend/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter">Gal and Nagi Abdush, 34 & 35: Couple were 'best friends' | The Times of Israel</a></p><p>As the Times explained: "That night, Eden Wessely, a car mechanic, drove to the rave site with three friends and found Ms. Abdush sprawled half naked on the road next to her burned car, about nine miles north of the site. ... lying on her back, dress torn, legs spread, vagina exposed." </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBtotjL5umYGY0n1xQnk8qNHbdxcw1g6rk5No-5yCq-wEtgSeebz95lN4IHKAjquQir0aHXriiuKUVJGpsdWiZU_LWRd0mpREhsv84z123UDIcMkx8R8cyK4_VoKdIA30MfZymNWixE-Dl2SJsUW-5mIBrjuN4LF6iRN0FGFetMcB4ftkBYf1asKL5EsdK/s752/Screenshot%20(5247).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="692" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBtotjL5umYGY0n1xQnk8qNHbdxcw1g6rk5No-5yCq-wEtgSeebz95lN4IHKAjquQir0aHXriiuKUVJGpsdWiZU_LWRd0mpREhsv84z123UDIcMkx8R8cyK4_VoKdIA30MfZymNWixE-Dl2SJsUW-5mIBrjuN4LF6iRN0FGFetMcB4ftkBYf1asKL5EsdK/w368-h400/Screenshot%20(5247).png" width="368" /></a></div>In a highly unusual development, Ms. Wessely recorded what she saw in some short videos and then published them. A provided video screenshot relates the familiar scene in a view I had never seen (at right). "When she posted the video of the woman in the black dress on her Instagram story, she was deluged with messages" and it went viral. For example, Daniel Amram, a popular private news blogger in Israel, <a href="https://twitter.com/danielamram3/status/1715390582896386054">tweeted the video to Greta Thunberg</a>, claiming that the victim “was raped and burned alive.” (but he thinks it's "this family who just found her sister") <p></p><p>More importantly "Based largely on the video evidence — which was verified by The New York Times — Israeli police officials said they believed that Ms. Abdush was raped, and she has become a symbol of the horrors visited upon Israeli women and girls during the Oct. 7 attacks." </p><p>Was this conclusion based "largely" or "totally" on this video evidence? Again, nowhere was forensic evidence for or against rape gathered, and no witness claims that I've seen, including in this report, indicates that Gal was raped. So it's not clear what other evidence there would be.</p><p></p><a href="https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/watch-ny-times-investigation-mass-rape-hamas-falls-apart">The Electronic Intifada</a> & the Gray Zone (at least by citation) seem to not recognize it; "There is currently no trace of the video on the internet despite the Times claim that it “went viral.”" Perhaps due just to the nudity it includes, the video is not allowed on the usual platforms, but it frequently appears, is scrubbed, and re-appears. Still images and discussion of it abound. Max Blumenthal did well enough discussing the video at one point (recalled now as "I demonstrated months ago that Abdush had been killed by an explosion."). </div><div><p>I saw the video on Hamas-Massacre.net. The body's pose with spread legs COULD be natural or unrelated to rape, and her lack of underwear with the skimpy dress COULD be her deliberate choice. But between them, I see the suggested rape everyone else does. However ... In <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/11/gunning-down-partygoers.html">part 3</a>, I included some clues that she was killed by an Apache's 30mm cannon shell that somehow tore across her right thigh before detonating on impact with the ground and taking off the back of her head. There are other explanations for the different injuries, including that some are postmortem. But judging by the images alone, she most likely died from the massive head injury (a split scalp and broken edge of her skull near the crown are just visible enough in the video). </p><p>I also argued how it was several hours after her death that Mrs. Abdush's body was moved into the seen pose. If her right arm sticks up like that due to rigor mortis, as I suspect, she was probably in a different position, perhaps face-down and/or in a complex situation, for at least 8-10 hours before this twisted bit of staging. And the burning of her upper left torso, left arm, and face was seemingly done only then, in this final position. </p><p>If the seen pose is the "proof" of Hamas rape and a fit basis for genocide and ethnic cleansing against the people of Gaza ... and someone artificially arranged that pose, perhaps to also conceal another death by IDF "friendly fire" ... well, that would be damn troubling. But the good news would be that, judging by the massive lack of visual evidence for rape, this kind of staging was not widespread.</p><p>My next step, maybe taken slowly as well, is to reconsider the physical-visual "OSINT" evidence in light of the new reports and all else, to see if I can confirm that initial view or find an even better explanation that might be of actual help in clearing up this ongoing confusion. I'll be citing some great OSINT work by Michael Kobs at this thread: <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaKobs/status/1742879396900295130">Michael Kobs on X: "The circumstances of Gal Abdush's death raise very serious questions indeed.</a>) </p><p>But briefly here, from the articles I've read: Gal's last message was at 6:51 am, quoted as "we are at the border, and you can’t imagine sounds of explosions around us." Also given: simply "You don't understand." Her killing was apparently around 7am, as reported then by her husband Nagi - he mentioned how "they" had "shot" Gal, unclear where or with what, and she was "dying" - maybe less suddenly than I would expect by the head wound (and reports I've seen don't have Apache helicopters up quite this early). "They" presumably means Hamas, although it's not clear if he could know just who Gal was "shot" by. Nagi continued sending messages for another 45 minutes before he too was killed, at the end asking his brother to watch out for their kids. <b>Apparently none of the messages mentioned anyone raping Gal, burning her alive, or anything of the sort.</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgta6dttV_La4rxcUrXEOyhwfLW5_C5fYHXjIZHN2nIl3kjYlihzdOp2bnB2l3tMftqmuraNxkZns0TvRwTLrRR44uAJAoHKYE0lqvqxayieV2eDd3G5zILoazrObwAGFfkDy6Ztj24JqtBU2oe-H_ADSchibagPL0GHifWZm-qlGRxOA30PQLNzXLwlhvi/s1560/10-7_Abdush_Loc.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1560" data-original-width="1392" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgta6dttV_La4rxcUrXEOyhwfLW5_C5fYHXjIZHN2nIl3kjYlihzdOp2bnB2l3tMftqmuraNxkZns0TvRwTLrRR44uAJAoHKYE0lqvqxayieV2eDd3G5zILoazrObwAGFfkDy6Ztj24JqtBU2oe-H_ADSchibagPL0GHifWZm-qlGRxOA30PQLNzXLwlhvi/s320/10-7_Abdush_Loc.jpg" width="286" /></a></div><p></p><p>As geolocated by Michael Kobs, they died near the "Mefalsim Battle" as given at <a href="https://oct7map.com/">Mapping the Massacres (oct7map.com)</a> where Hamas hardly killed or kidnapped anyone as they crumbled under an aggressive defense that day, with a lot of deaths, and some civilian deaths on the highway just after that "dangerous curve." Gal and Nagi at least died there but weren't mapped there. At right, from Michael's thread: the location of Gal's body and the car (Nagi is badly charred and partly missing, on the other side of the car)</p><p><b>Between messages from Gal and Nagi, the police, and everything they knew, the family heard nothing about suspicions or evidence for rape until the Times reporters showed up. </b></p><p>The report says family members saw the Wessely video of Gal's remains, recognized them, and “feared that she might have been raped.” Perhaps someone was coaxed to agree that though had crossed their mind(s). But the victim's sister Miral Alter stated in a January 2 Instagram comment that she doubted the rape claims and all the reasons given to support them, and complained “the New York Times that came to us indicated that they wanted to do a story in memory of Gal and Nagy and that’s why we approved. <b>If we knew that it was a headline like rape slaughter, we would never agree. Never.” </b>Gal Abdush’s mother Etti Brakha, her sister Tali Barakha, and Nagi’s brother Nissim Abdush have also lodged similar complaints, as compiled at <a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2024/01/10/questions-nyt-hamas-rape-report/">Screams without proof: questions for NYT about shoddy ‘Hamas mass rape’ report - The Grayzone</a></p><p>Some respond to this with <a href="https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/hyfwvej006">a Hebrew-language article at Ynet from December 31</a>, wherein Gal's mother, her brother Rami Bracka, and Nagi's mother now seem to believe that Gal was in fact raped. But they all "learned" this from the Times report and/or its journalists' assurances that, as Gal's mother put it, <b>"they cross-checked the testimonies and said Gal had been sexually assaulted" - somebody witnessed it.</b> But no testimonies that I've seen, and none that the Times shared, sheds any light on Gal's demise, except for Nagi's messages, which of course mentioned no such thing. Did the reporters pull a trick here?</p><p>Gals mother, Etti Brakha: "We didn't know about the rape at first, <b>only when the New York Times reporter contacted us did we know. </b>They said they cross-checked the testimonies and said Gal had been sexually assaulted. <b>We still don't know exactly what happened."</b> She also thinks "There is evidence that <b>they saw my daughter's sexual assault."</b> As far as we've seen, there's evidence that Nagi saw no such thing (his failing to mention it), and no other testimony to contradict that. If the reporters suggested otherwise, they might have been dishonest.</p><p>Rami Brakha, Gal's brother: "It was only in the New York Times investigation that <b>we understood from the journalists </b>that my sister had been raped. It was hard to know what she went through before she was shot and murdered." But by some magic they still can't explain, Gettleman, Schwartz and Sella had figured it out for the family.</p><p>Finally, Nagi's mother recalls "That morning, my son Nagi called us and said, '[they] Kill her, shoot her,' and screamed on the phone on speakerphone. <b>Only now, after hearing what they did to Gal, do I try to think about what my son saw with his own eyes</b>, how his wife was sexually abused, before they shot her and then shot him." It would be easy to not think about it earlier, when Nagi spoke of no such thing. Even now, that should make very limited sense.</p><p>So those folks don't seem to feel misled by the reporters, even though they probably should. And I haven't seen Miral Alter, for one, act convinced by the Times' tricks. She was clear in denying Gal's rape even after the report. She knew to cite the timeline of private messages to point out "It doesn’t make any sense that in four minutes, they raped her, slaughtered her, and burned her.” Neither does it make sense that her husband would fail to mention any of that in his final minutes and several communications. </p><p>A leading pose and an inspired police reading, and supposedly some other, unseen "testimony" led the Times to decide on rape. The family had no reason yet to form this idea, but when the reporters came in so confident, some members were convinced, if also confused. Of course, journalists are supposed to follow stories, not plant them in their subjects' minds as was seemingly done here, to get them involved and seeming to support the claims. <b>Some of them <i>still </i>do not buy the claims and the rest might, but apparently <i>for no reason past the same journalistic tricks under discussion here. </i></b></p><p>See also: <a href="https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1742301254154350965">Max Blumenthal on X: "The Times must issue a retraction and punish @Gettleman and his colleagues if it can not discredit the IG comment below by Miral Alter (apparent sister of Gal Abdush) At The Grayzone, I demonstrated months ago that Abdush had been killed by an explosion on October 7, and was not…" / X (twitter.com)</a></p><p>On Rising via <a href="https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1743841167614046224">Max Blumenthal on X</a></p><p><a href="https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/watch-ny-times-investigation-mass-rape-hamas-falls-apart">Watch: NY Times "investigation" of mass rape by Hamas falls apart | The Electronic Intifada</a></p><p><a href="https://mondoweiss.net/2024/01/family-of-key-case-in-new-york-times-october-7-sexual-violence-report-renounces-story-says-reporters-manipulated-them/">Family of key case in New York Times October 7 sexual violence report renounces story, says reporters manipulated them – Mondoweiss</a></p><p><b>Conclusion: </b>And that, folks, is how the New York friggin' Times crafted its big assist for the Netanyahu regime's ongoing genocide in Gaza.</p></div></div></div></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-59067698386634869082023-12-18T03:43:00.000-08:002023-12-31T20:52:30.555-08:00Executing a Pregnant Woman and her Fetus: Really?<p><b><span style="font-size: large;">October 7 Massacre in Israel, Part 6: Executing a Pregnant Woman and her Fetus: Really? </span></b></p><p><b>December 18, 2023</b></p><p><b>additions 12/31</b></p><p>Again, an insert instead of a final post in what was started as a 4-part series. Part 6 now, and part 7 later, and likely that won't be final either. I don't mean to try and untangle every claim and identify every trick used to maximize Israel's propaganda case against Hamas, but I keep finding ones that seem worth the effort. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">6A) Witnesses to a Slaughter</span></b></p><p><a href="https://nypost.com/2023/11/01/news/head-of-israels-ems-service-describes-horror-of-seeing-babies-slaughtered-by-hamas/">New York post, Nov. 1</a>: Eli Beer, the founder of the volunteer-based Israeli EMS organization United Hatzalah, speaking to the Republican Jewish Coalition, relates terrible scenes he personally witnessed of men, women and children "murdered in a holocaust in Israel in 2023.” <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0AkHJse8d4">Eli Beer, President of United Hatzalah testimonials from October 7th, 2023, at the RJC (youtube.com)</a></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2XhiSeifsfgQkxQSrIuH3eIO8k29LxwbRmM9_u8KE21h5EAaopsvROo3qQ1A3vbGYGnXhiaDepf2rcs94nFsi1IWWbDwrSeCf-GqTuI0g_m2B2CCcEI9MLhjmcT8mQCWaJnDsF4TwLj66YqDJn3qhyphenhyphenAEj_TQ-2l6fkSWLQc4U7mRIHFRPpJGAuluEIsno/s1128/Screenshot%20(5204).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="1128" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2XhiSeifsfgQkxQSrIuH3eIO8k29LxwbRmM9_u8KE21h5EAaopsvROo3qQ1A3vbGYGnXhiaDepf2rcs94nFsi1IWWbDwrSeCf-GqTuI0g_m2B2CCcEI9MLhjmcT8mQCWaJnDsF4TwLj66YqDJn3qhyphenhyphenAEj_TQ-2l6fkSWLQc4U7mRIHFRPpJGAuluEIsno/w400-h213/Screenshot%20(5204).png" width="400" /></a></div>"I saw with my own eyes a woman who was pregnant, 4 months pregnant - she was in a little village, a little kibbutz - they came into her house, in front of her kids, they opened up her stomach [slicing motion] - she was pregnant - they opened up her stomach, took out the baby, and stabbed the little tiny baby in front of her and then shot her in front of her family. Then they killed the rest of the kids." <p></p><p>Beer says he saw that "with my own eyes" but the original (alleged) witness to this scene was apparently Yossi Landau, southern region head of operations for a competitor rescue group, ZAKA. <a href="https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel-at-war/1697121911-israeli-emergency-responder-i-saw-20-children-shot-burned-and-piled-together-in-two-piles">To i24NEWS, on October 12</a>, Landau claimed that he witnessed this in the hard-hit kibbutz of Be'eri. "In the first home he and his colleagues entered "we see a pregnant lady lying on the floor, and then we turn her around and see that the stomach is cut open, wide open. The unborn baby, still connected with an umbilical cord, was stabbed with a knife. And the mother was shot in the head. And you use your imagination, trying to figure out what came first." </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTsztw7P4s36n3ovxQGep7Lx28CFAHN3lUXM55pux_jxG19tzDN5PEUnP9_aiezaA-Sfdtat0nd0NZ_rhGHEigZD6r7rxSVIE8CBZl5M7g9I5Ac9L1esf-6p6RSeE7hhpExiDRyQ1lTORAvxvqdylGc11OBSnPhMn7omW-GVNxZklHFlI3VPmH4G3OLsPM/s1129/Screenshot%20(5203).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="619" data-original-width="1129" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTsztw7P4s36n3ovxQGep7Lx28CFAHN3lUXM55pux_jxG19tzDN5PEUnP9_aiezaA-Sfdtat0nd0NZ_rhGHEigZD6r7rxSVIE8CBZl5M7g9I5Ac9L1esf-6p6RSeE7hhpExiDRyQ1lTORAvxvqdylGc11OBSnPhMn7omW-GVNxZklHFlI3VPmH4G3OLsPM/w400-h219/Screenshot%20(5203).png" width="400" /></a></div>Here at a press conference, Landau (left) relates the scene, almost in tears: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NABHmyxFMCY">Zaka Testimonial from The Hamas Massacre</a> (around the 20:30 mark). "Her stomach was butchered open," he says, and the still-connected baby had been stabbed. He says his team had a debate whether to use one body bag or two.<p></p><p>Landau relates his methodology for deciding what happened: "Now we go to the same imagination we're using. let's talk to the body. Let's see what happened. Did she see that, what was done to her baby?" His increasingly sad demeanor suggests yes, the mother had to see it all before she died. But he remains open-minded and optimistic. "Or maybe she didn't. Maybe she didn't have that suffering. We don't know." United Hatzalah's Mr. Beer - who apparently wasn't even there? - seemed to imagine what came first and later much more vividly and related it as fact - the mother and some other children were made to watch before they were all killed.</p><p><a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2023/12/06/scandal-israeli-october-7-fabrications/">This interesting piece at The Grayzone</a> notes how ZAKA and U.H. compete for donations and other funding, and that seems to drive them each to bear witness - truly or falsely - to the gravest imaginable atrocities against Jews. But even as they trip over each other to claim their "own eyes" saw all the worst crimes, they have a shared mission - to illustrate how Israel needs to avenge a special class of crime that transcends things like the rules of war and normal human decency. </p><p>Beer noted simply "These are not regular enemies." Landau was more philosophical: the killers are not human, despite their form, and not even animals, he says, struggling to put it in words: "they don't belong to our world." They're supernatural, like some kind of demons crossed over to plague us - temporarily, he hopes. </p><p>Landau was <a href="https://twitter.com/AJCGlobal/status/1734709817028030545">hailed by the American Jewish Council</a> as a hero who "brought light in our darkest hour." He knows this, and has little patience for anyone complicating his contributions to Israel's ambitious new project. As Max Blumenthal noted "Yossi Landau proclaimed in a December 3 interview that <b>anyone who questions his stories “should be together with the Hamas terrorists, and he should be killed.”</b> <a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2023/12/06/scandal-israeli-october-7-fabrications/">Scandal-stained Israeli ‘rescue’ group fuels October 7 fabrications - The Grayzone</a> </p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">6B) "No Connection" to Be'eri ... or to Reality?</span></b></p><p>Ha'aretz reported on December 4 how "Hamas committed documented atrocities, but a few false stories feed the deniers," and this butchered woman claim was one of them. </p><p>Article link: <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-12-04/ty-article-magazine/.premium/hamas-committed-documented-atrocities-but-a-few-false-stories-feed-the-deniers/0000018c-34f3-da74-afce-b5fbe24f0000">https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-12-04/ty-article-magazine/.premium/hamas-committed-documented-atrocities-but-a-few-false-stories-feed-the-deniers/0000018c-34f3-da74-afce-b5fbe24f0000</a>. I tried to register, but it didn't work. A Hebrew version was available <a href="https://www.msn.com/he-il/news/other/hamas-committed-documented-atrocities-but-a-few-false-stories-feed-the-deniers/ar-AA1kYMbX">here</a>, and auto-translated for citation in this post, as "Ha'aretz 12/4." (It might also be covered in <a href="https://www.liberation.fr/checknews/israel-7-octobre-un-massacre-et-des-mystifications-20231211_A7QBBETYDRDERFAQINGA66ZAR4/">Libération's investigation</a>, although <a href="https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/513998.aspx">this review</a> doesn't mention it.) </p><p>The Ha'aretz article cites an unnamed ZAKA worker who "repeatedly spoke about the body of a pregnant woman found at Kibbutz Be'eri whose abdomen had been cut open." This should probably be Yossi Landau, and it's not clear why he remains unnamed in the article. "He repeated his account to Haaretz," and even doubled-down on specific details, "adding that <b>he saw this woman at House 426 on the kibbutz.</b> “It was full of blood,” he said. “When we turned her over, we saw that the abdomen was open. A knife was next to her, and we saw the fetus attached by the umbilical cord, and she had been shot from behind.” He might be backing away from the stabbed fetus claim, or just didn't specify it this time.</p><p>He also "said that he found the woman next to the house's entrance, and that a 6- or 7-year-old boy was found shot in the safe room." But as Ha'aretz found, no boy anywhere near this age was reported killed in Be'eri. Furthermore, they reported, "House 426 is also a two-family house where elderly families lived; Rafi Mordo was murdered and his neighbor, Simcha Shani, was wounded. <b>Shani and her husband did not mention a pregnant woman or a family with young children who were guests in their house." </b> </p><p>Note also that Pessi Cohen's #424 is just two houses over. This is where, as two surviving witnesses describe in detail, IDF tank shells killed 13 civilian hostages - including two children aged 12 - after Hamas had seemingly killed <i>none</i> of those hostages (see part 2). </p><p>There was supposed video proof of this crime that circulated briefly, and was even touted by President Herzog's wife Michal. She said in a Newsweek Op-Ed that “a Hamas video from a kibbutz shows terrorists torturing a pregnant woman and removing her fetus.” (<a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2023/12/06/scandal-israeli-october-7-fabrications/">The Grayzone 12/6</a>). Ha'aretz 12/4 noted "A clip was posted on social media describing the murder of a pregnant woman, but the website Fake Reporter and other sources say the video was not filmed in Israel." The supplied video was showed "a Mexican drug cartel torturing a prisoner to death" (The Grayzone 12/6). See also: <a href="https://misbar.com/en/factcheck/2023/10/26/israeli-accounts-share-deceptive-video-accusing-hamas-of-killing-a-pregnant-woman">Israeli Accounts Share Deceptive Video, Accusing Hamas of Killing a Pregnant Woman | Misbar</a> Ignoring that it's appalling this happened anywhere for any reason, the site's finding: the victim is apparently a Mexican male, and it's his heart removed, not a fetus. But by the time we figured that out, the "proven" crime was touted in Newsweek and all over the place. (see 12/31 add below for more details)</p><p>Ha'retz also reported that, by some representative communication, <b>"the kibbutz adds that “the story of the pregnant woman reported by Zaka is not relevant to Be'eri.”</b> Furthermore, Ha'aretz reported "The police say the case is not known to them, and a pathology source at the Shura army base told Haaretz that he was unaware of the case." This source, the investigating police, and the kibbutz of Be'eri, among others ... all of them, according to Landau's December 3 comment, should be put "together with Hamas and killed." </p><p><b>6C) The Match? A Pregnant Women Killed in a ROADSIDE Shelter</b></p><p>However much he chokes up on recalling the details, "Landau appears to have crafted this testimony" of the butchered woman - as <a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2023/12/06/scandal-israeli-october-7-fabrications/">Max Blumenthal at The Grayzone</a> contends - "based on a rumor that an anonymous military source spread online two days prior." The cited post (<a href="https://twitter.com/BittonRosen/status/1711665246627090811">Hallel Bitton Rosen on X</a>), from October 10, says: "Yesterday at 18:36, while we were gathering dead bodies in Beeri, we entered a safe room in one of the houses and found a woman around 30 years old, lying on a blood soaked towel with a fetus connected to her by an umbilical cord." That does sound like the same scene. Maybe Landau just picked this up, or perhaps he was actually there among the witnesses?</p><p>Blumenthal questions the claim. "According to the source, the supposedly pregnant victim was 30 years old. This alone discredited Landau’s claim, because the only female victims [of similar age - ed] recorded in or around Beeri were 44-year-old Rinat Segev Even and 22-year-old Tair Bira — and neither were pregnant. In fact, <b>no pregnant women were registered among those killed on October 7." </b></p><p>But this is not correct. There may have been no women <i>of reproductive age</i> in the area (some others were killed, mostly older - one age 48 and I'm not sure on the rest). But <b>there was at least one pregnant woman killed in the massacre</b>, and another was wounded, losing her child. </p><p>Recalling the victim's age as "around 30" and Eli Beer's specifying 4 months pregnant, they seem to be referring to Nitzan Rahoum, 28. This may be an all-new story, explaining why Blumenthal and others have missed it. <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/lidor-levi-and-nitzan-rahoum-28-slain-couple-were-expecting-first-baby/">The Times of Israel reported only on December 10</a>: </p><p>Lidor Levy, 28, and Nitzan Rahoum, 28, an engaged couple who lived together in the central moshav of Geulim, were murdered by Hamas terrorists at the Supernova music festival on October 7. <b>Rahoum was four months pregnant when she was killed.</b> ... Levy and Rahoum sought refuge <b>in a roadside bomb shelter </b>— separate from her uncle and cousins — which Hamas terrorists besieged and threw grenades inside. Levy sought to flee and was slain in a volley of gunfire, while <b>Rahoum is believed to have been murdered by a grenade along with many others." </b>Oct7map.com lists <a href="https://oct7map.com/NitzanRahum">Nitzam Rahum</a>, age 28. It's not clear how relevant the dot placement is, but her red dot is mapped south of the rave, along the road near Re'im, not even close to Be'eri. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio11tS3Ewjn-vdjDzy7h_hlaRYbSIUa3tO-9IXdqapbN4ZQMbTfKMz9QdC-Rr2zdtwuEMBd0S-KNKXGtyWW97PwpmHOKk9x0Ae14mNg73__SDhNQq8o4YeC-Rr6vjTsOg6gdnWa6kwX8u9hPty0IhY0gIrSbUv6aoaVo62gTu-tYZ28penwTKz7ieCOwbm/s720/Screenshot%20(5205).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="308" data-original-width="720" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio11tS3Ewjn-vdjDzy7h_hlaRYbSIUa3tO-9IXdqapbN4ZQMbTfKMz9QdC-Rr2zdtwuEMBd0S-KNKXGtyWW97PwpmHOKk9x0Ae14mNg73__SDhNQq8o4YeC-Rr6vjTsOg6gdnWa6kwX8u9hPty0IhY0gIrSbUv6aoaVo62gTu-tYZ28penwTKz7ieCOwbm/s320/Screenshot%20(5205).png" width="320" /></a></div>There is daschcam video of Hamas fighters/terrorists tossing a grenade into such a shelter, when a man runs out very fast, passing the attackers, but is shot down a few meters out. That may be the same scene, or it might have happened twice. This is said to be the scene where off-duty IDF soldier Aner Shapira tossed some grenades back out before he was finally killed. The video shows at least 2 grenades tossed in beside rifle fire and one RPG shell shot in. <a href="https://twitter.com/October_7_2023/status/1724552693648069083/video/1">(Video w/notes on X)</a> <p></p><p>Whether Ms. Rahoum was killed in the above video or another scene, it's possible the killers stepped into the shelter and butchered her in the described way - not that anyone describes such a thing happening <i>in a roadside shelter.</i> But grenades can do terrible things to the human body, and to bodies within bodies, without any deliberate surgical cruelty like Landau and Beer imagined. The closest Hamas got to doing that might be seen above, or it might have looked the same. And the post quoted above might be accurate enough in describing the aftermath, aside from "a safe room in one of the houses." Having it in a house in Be'eri, and a specific one, seeing the knife and signs of deliberate slaughter, and divining the family made to watch before their own murder ... that all seems like imagination straying miles from the reality of events.</p><p><b>Add 12/31: </b>There's <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nn8Y_ulBMI">an interview video</a> where Landau explains how, on his way to Be'eri, he stopped at a roadside shelter and saw some 20 people "burned alive," not killed by grenades. But he didn't mention seeing any pregnant woman killed there. He recalls seeing that later on.</p><p><b>6D) The Match? A Fetus is Removed and Dies</b></p><p>Ha'aretz 12/4 seems to miss this likely match, because it wasn't reported yet, and/or because they were focused on Be'eri, as Landau had specified. The closest match they found there was a case where a pregnant woman's unborn child was removed and died from injuries ... but this happened in a hospital, and the mother wound up alive in a bed there, not dead in a pool of blood in house 426.</p><p>"In another incident, on the morning of October 7, a heavily pregnant Bedouin woman was on her way to Soroka Medical Center in Be'er Sheva because her contractions had begun. Terrorists shot her in the stomach. Later hospital staff delivered the baby girl, who died a few hours later." That woman came from Be'eri. The same article says at another point: "Ten-month-old Mila Cohen was murdered in the massacre, along with the baby still in the womb of her mother who died after her mother was shot on the way to hospital." Mila Cohen and her father Ohad were killed in Be'eri.</p><p>Ha'aretz heard that woman was shot in the belly by terrorists on the way to the hospital, because the baby chose then to start coming out ("her contractions had begun"). But a detailed account of how the Cohens suffered <a href="https://www.jns.org/three-generations-wiped-out-by-hamas-in-kibbutz-beeri/">three generations wiped out by Hamas in Kibbutz Be'eri - JNS.org</a> (where "wiped out" means "lost at least one member") tells a much different story. This refers to "Sandra and Ohad Cohen together with their three children, ages 9, 3 and 10 months." The family hid in their shelter even after Hamas men shot through the door, killing baby Mila. The attackers then started a fire to smoke the family out. Ohad led an escape attempt through the window and was shot dead. The pregnant Sandra and her surviving children came out and were taken captive. </p><p>"The terrorists took the mother, the two remaining kids, along with an elderly woman in a wheelchair and her Filipino caretaker Gracie, and started to walk them to the kibbutz gate, she said. <b>Suddenly, Israeli security forces appeared and the old woman shouted “soldiers, soldiers!” In the ensuing shootout Sandra Cohen was hit four times </b>in the lung and once each in the arm and leg, but called on her two kids to escape together to a neighboring house." </p><p>Sandra was also reportedly shot in the belly and the unborn child, and that may be what started birthing contractions prematurely. But she somehow wound up outside Hamas captivity and in the hospital after this, as if they let her go to and get emergency care, after whoever exactly had shot her in that exchange of fire. That's not exactly slicing out the baby and stabbing it to death before her eyes. But is it even supposed to be the same story?</p><p>Side-note: Was Mila Cohen beheaded? As part 5 explained, IDF search and rescue chief Col. Golan Vach presumably describes Mila - the only one of 9 "babies" he saw that he described as actually very young (maybe 1-2 years), and Mila was the only baby near that age reportedly killed in Be'eri or anywhere. But this baby had been beheaded somehow, in the foiled protection of, we would assume, her deceased mother. But they were found outside, the woman shot in the back, not the head, and she wasn't noted as pregnant or slaughtered. The above story says "the family huddled together in their safe room as terrorists shot at the door, killing their 10-month-old daughter, Mila." It sounds like they had to leave her body behind, and of course Sandra survived. So what baby, if any, did Vach see?</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">6E) ZAKA "Might have Misinterpreted..."</span></b></p><p>Ha'aretz 12/4: "As for the pregnant woman, Zaka said that due to the condition of the bodies when they were found, the volunteers might have misinterpreted what they saw." Yossi Landau, with his 30+ years of experience, might have made one of three mistakes here, and he might even have done it honestly: </p><p>1) Did he see the 4-month pregnant woman killed by grenades in a roadside shelter and remember seeing it at house 426, amid signs of slaughter instead of an obvious grenade attack? </p><p>2) Did he hear of the woman surviving crossfire and a stillbirth at the hospital, and remember it as finding her and the fetus slaughtered in home 426? </p><p>3) Did he actual see at house 426 its killed occupant, Raffi Mordo, and remember it wrongly? Mordo was aged 84, a bit overweight by the photo, and not the hardest man to mistake for a woman (<a href="https://oct7map.com/RaffiMordo">Mapping the Massacres (oct7map.com)</a>) In the vicinity of Hamas fighters and also battles including IDF tanks, he might have somehow become disemboweled neear the entrance, and Mr. Landau might have just imagined a fetus in that mess, maybe "talked to the body" for a while, and the rest just followed.</p><p>Eli Beer with his professional eye could have made a similar mistake in re-telling the story. But both of them might re-combine the evidence deliberately to fabricate new crimes. they can wheel freely interpreting things like just what happened and even where, but sticking loosely to actual details (4 months pregnant, etc.) in case it comes up - "the whole thing was a traumatized blur, all our critics are antisemitic, etc." Long-term story survival or the historical record were never the issue. They just needed to be "confused" enough to say this stuff once, get it in print and echoing around, get the donations coming in and the hearts hardened as the bombs start falling. Then their main job is done. The mumbled excuses and perhaps even consequences - some resignations or early retirements ... that can come later.</p><p><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeQ0LpzXhGj9SznUEBvqX1CT2lJliGGLFk3XVKewMw9X_kSkmjOkeqIosHwLy8he4_vYKcKJ0wn8vn_KXJ1_ISwuPk5aOSpQZqKJub7qGY54gZlJ6AT5akBChg5YVm0LpLk1n_1TCZPUc0oZWTbabLNGrXviqHkIXQuCKtFUS9w-q97GVslWJDiJdEqBP0/s1123/10-7_Goldstein.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1123" data-original-width="642" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeQ0LpzXhGj9SznUEBvqX1CT2lJliGGLFk3XVKewMw9X_kSkmjOkeqIosHwLy8he4_vYKcKJ0wn8vn_KXJ1_ISwuPk5aOSpQZqKJub7qGY54gZlJ6AT5akBChg5YVm0LpLk1n_1TCZPUc0oZWTbabLNGrXviqHkIXQuCKtFUS9w-q97GVslWJDiJdEqBP0/w229-h400/10-7_Goldstein.png" width="229" /></a></b></div><b>Add 12/31: The Video</b><p></p><p>The Misbar analysis cited above featured the supposed video posted by Brooke Goldstein, "Exec Dir @LawfareProject . Civil Rights Lawyer. Author of #EndJewHatred: A Manual for Mobilization - Activists in the #EndJewHatred movement." Post deleted - <a href="https://twitter.com/GoldsteinBrooke/status/1714736498111553724">explanation</a>: "I posted a horrific video of a pregnant woman being cut open. Before I posted this video it was confirmed. Now I am double, and triple checking it’s confirmed. And if it remains confirmed I will post it again." Later, <a href="https://twitter.com/GoldsteinBrooke/status/1714787864507003347">getting less sure</a> "It is absolutely verified by the Israelis that a pregnant woman was cut open and was left for dead. We are still verifying if this is the footage of that incident." It doesn't seem she ever came back to clarify. (Even Instagram called her out, <a href="https://twitter.com/GoldsteinBrooke/status/1729912224569827653">blocking her access to EndJewHatred</a> over their rules on "fraud and deception")</p><p>More recently, some troll accounts have been re-posting an edit of the supposed video. "Kelly Green" "<a href="https://twitter.com/KellyGr73198939">Kelly Green (@KellyGr73198939) / X (twitter.com)</a> - a "semi retired Obgyn" from Montana, who Joined November 2022, mainly to post Israeli propaganda about October 7, and especially about alleged sexual violence against women. "She" <a href="https://twitter.com/KellyGr73198939/status/1738370998096048262">posted</a> (now deleted for rules violation - it showed a huge video frame unblurred, with no warning) "Well there’s this. Hamas filmed the slaughter of a pregnant woman, sliced off her breast, cut open her belly, ripped her baby out and beheaded it. You can watch it live right here. https://thisishamas.com." From an OBGYN, that should be an informed opinion, but of course it's not.</p><p>The breast-slicing and fetus beheading are new details. I don't know if the site is safe and there's no value to going there. But I had to go and see the video excerpt. It's sickening, even to me. Optional description: A living man is held down by several others a main butcher flays the skin off his chest and belly, then slices it open from the bottom. Someone slaps the man in the face a few times, as if to keep him awake and watching. At one point, his flexing causes a sort of pale balloon of flesh to emerges on its own from a slit in his belly muscle. It's similar to a baby's head, but it's probably his intestines. The butcher ignores this, not pulling out the "baby" for any type of killing, as he starts splitting the man's sternum to get at his heart. The video cuts there, as it was straying from the script.</p><p>Video matches (comparing stills at the Misbar analysis): the victim's mouth is taped shut, as noted, so "she would not scream." His head is laid on the belly of a heavyset man in denim shorts. Something tells me that's the victim's father. He was reportedly killed afterwards, by beheading, though I haven't seen that segment. Anyway, the two men were shown before, the man in shorts and the other, with his mouth already taped shut. That's plain as day. Also note the crime is filmed outdoors in bright sunlight, not inside an Israeli woman's house.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2WO0A8arPv0VUB5OruX5Gf04eHWQEVnB7GjOazz0aYcjtyAC8obtd3Cxe3F0qAGfowr2K4oTnx0uOBbao_-jUsM-2OCja64zHxAGHYZsGi3RpXa09vSvhodkNG2oH9UeSgJiGrZtndDIco-7f0cvcv-BLCACrwIG2-KTaR1rlw_l104oq4XdJ3RfdzkwR/s982/10-7-Mexican.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="495" data-original-width="982" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2WO0A8arPv0VUB5OruX5Gf04eHWQEVnB7GjOazz0aYcjtyAC8obtd3Cxe3F0qAGfowr2K4oTnx0uOBbao_-jUsM-2OCja64zHxAGHYZsGi3RpXa09vSvhodkNG2oH9UeSgJiGrZtndDIco-7f0cvcv-BLCACrwIG2-KTaR1rlw_l104oq4XdJ3RfdzkwR/w640-h322/10-7-Mexican.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The website hedges it bets, noting "This video has not yet been verified as part of the murder committed by the Palestinians on October 7. But, as of now, we can confirm that the police have a photographic record of the pregnant body showing the same result as what was done in the unverified video (We might be able to publish it soon), a confession of the murderers who were captured and interrogated, and testimonies of the body collectors (“Zaka”) and medical teams in the field. Press HERE to see testimonies from a few hours after what he saw." </p><p>I predict they will never show these photos of "the same result" because they do not match this scene, or the related stories. Most likely, they show the single pregnant woman killed under very different circumstances (see below). </p>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-79088149054218086032023-12-11T06:51:00.000-08:002024-01-05T01:29:04.344-08:00Col. Golan Vach, Tank Fire, and "8 Babies" Killed at Kibbutz Be'eri<p><b><span style="font-size: large;">October 7 Massacre in Israel, Part 5: Col. Golan Vach, Tank Fire, and "8 Babies" Killed at Kibbutz Be'eri</span></b></p><p><b>December 11, 2023</b></p><p><b>(rough, incomplete) updates 12/13, 1/5/24</b></p><p>Before I get to wrapping up my 5-part overview of the October 7 massacre in Israel, at least one related set of claims required some special attention. I suppose it could become the new part 5 and push off a (final?) part 6. Sure. Let's do it. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Col. Vach Admits Killing Israelis?</span></b></p><p>"Pelham" on X (Twitter) got 1.2 million views with this claim: <a href="https://twitter.com/Resist_05/status/1733008513163784237">https://twitter.com/Resist_05/status/1733008513163784237</a></p><p>"Israeli Army Commander admits they handcuffed 2 couples inside a house then used tanks to destroy the building." Presumably in Gaza, just now, since it's the first we've heard about it? There's a supporting video attached, but the screen says it's in Kibbutz Holit, Israel, one of the settlements invaded by Hamas terrorists on October 7. Was Pelham saying the IDF handcuffed Israelis before killing them with tank fire on October 7? And they admitted this on a video no one noticed until now? That's fairly absurd.</p><p>A Community note pinned to the post says: "The video is edited in the middle (0:18) to make it seem like the Israeli officer “admitted” that an Israeli tank killed Israeli hostages. In reality, he is saying that these were the actions of Hamas." </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKCUymF3gyuuEBCCLdn-Msq_D34BQ-HhxFPB_XqLSf52nRzgweY1axexUIz7vFGw8hXKm3gBflUWTpwRbPrqYc2PntZ-57DUNxhw53KE5ZkzVu6Sq6uDx_4_pdULIVO1dLv8_SqUDgj_xBuao7wuZ7HW-ZUAtwWFdLJN7AZ93oTO9d3iMA6_Q39FoaBPFN/s1380/Screenshot%20(5189).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1077" data-original-width="1380" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKCUymF3gyuuEBCCLdn-Msq_D34BQ-HhxFPB_XqLSf52nRzgweY1axexUIz7vFGw8hXKm3gBflUWTpwRbPrqYc2PntZ-57DUNxhw53KE5ZkzVu6Sq6uDx_4_pdULIVO1dLv8_SqUDgj_xBuao7wuZ7HW-ZUAtwWFdLJN7AZ93oTO9d3iMA6_Q39FoaBPFN/w400-h313/Screenshot%20(5189).png" width="400" /></a></div>In this clip, Vach says he found "2 couples - 2 men, 2 women, handcuffed" on the lawn in front of the house. Elsewhere he specifies they had been killed. "Inside this house were another 15 burnt people, among them 8 babies. They were concentrated them, and they killed them, and they burned them." Other videos of this presentation are clear "they" are Hamas terrorists, not any of Israel's people. <p></p><p>Then there's a cut before Vach resumes, seeming to answer a question about massive damage to the house: <b>"Our tanks attacked."</b> A reporter asks: "Fired on them?" Vach replies: "Yeah," with a gesture of regretful acknowledgment (shown below). "Because they were blocked in these houses, and we need to conquer back the whole settlement. And it couldn't be happen without the tanks."</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7F2Z-hcQyC8CGao4SU824k-YmZKv8wQ19Ut1BcJaL26OIungIJUMMiL_qyk8LQwSOfRjobwMaJRlzb2uRGAJ4QJuh44tfaoF74pyJf1IfEUVVwCBa2oXbQHrU3yeGt-ABnHuFvuUFu3S_sLnXvMUsPP7OH13A14weskKwRIupWxhhHFgN8YhcjygJWNcR/s1122/Screenshot%20(5179).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="1122" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7F2Z-hcQyC8CGao4SU824k-YmZKv8wQ19Ut1BcJaL26OIungIJUMMiL_qyk8LQwSOfRjobwMaJRlzb2uRGAJ4QJuh44tfaoF74pyJf1IfEUVVwCBa2oXbQHrU3yeGt-ABnHuFvuUFu3S_sLnXvMUsPP7OH13A14weskKwRIupWxhhHFgN8YhcjygJWNcR/w640-h320/Screenshot%20(5179).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>The commander is Col. Golan Vach, presumably uninvolved in the military attack. He's a search and rescue guy, known for leading a rescue effort in Florida after a tower collapse in Surfside a few years back. He's helped with disasters in Brazil and Turkey, at least, besides within Israel and places where it wages war. He also sings and plays guitar, as I gather from a quick search. </p><p>Vach had risen by 2023 to be the overall commander of the IDF's search and rescue unit. In that position, he candidly admits the IDF failed to prevent the 10/7 attack, and vowed to do the right thing now and deliver the "perfection" the people need. He bore witness to numerous Hamas crimes, illustrating the enemy's inhumanity and explaining why the "people of light" need to eliminate them entirely from the region (Gaza) if Israelis ever want peace and security. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXfOMXGJLxQ&pp=ygULR29sYW4gVmFjaCA%3D">See here</a>. </p><p>But at least some of the crimes he reported apparently never happened.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9AnSD5Pc9csFRxyL8RuKJJ__OOe96HTqea9t8SLRiVQbs6DGacnZSBFQJjGoHpTE9kVUHp2UC-vpA23_vsoeSLNieXqiEkQY0KX7b2zCWGJWfeTguWDn08-KDdoWqz7DWFy7ulc__0LP10drU3-WeZFyl6gI6XTvh901e2XSRdPx636vrPjgW-_3ckc1H/s556/Screenshot%20(5196).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="355" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9AnSD5Pc9csFRxyL8RuKJJ__OOe96HTqea9t8SLRiVQbs6DGacnZSBFQJjGoHpTE9kVUHp2UC-vpA23_vsoeSLNieXqiEkQY0KX7b2zCWGJWfeTguWDn08-KDdoWqz7DWFy7ulc__0LP10drU3-WeZFyl6gI6XTvh901e2XSRdPx636vrPjgW-_3ckc1H/s320/Screenshot%20(5196).png" width="204" /></a></div>He was an original beheaded baby witness: In Kibbutz Be'eri, he says he found a woman killed and set ablaze, still burning when he arrived. She'd been shot in the back, and was hunched over, as he found, protecting a "baby" - a young child he estimated at 1-2 years old. But the baby was somehow decapitated, despite the protection. He's not clear if he found the body, the head, or both, but he suggests they were deliberately separated by Hamas terrorists using blades. (<a href="https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel-at-war/1698319384-i-carried-beheaded-baby-in-my-hands-says-kibbutz-be-eri-rescuer">I24</a> - <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9w21N5oYa4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9w21N5oYa4</a>)<div><br /></div><div>Add 12/13: "People ask me how come you did not take a picture. I said: ‘I’m sorry, I have children. I have limitations. I have limits. I do not take a picture of a decapitated baby," Vach said. (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231027-israeli-officer-says-he-found-baby-beheaded-in-hamas-attack">France 24</a>) "Then, unprompted, he took out his phone and started showing me photographs he did take, one corpse after another. “Wait,” he said, swiping. “You will see the pile. They brought gasoline with them. Their intention was to burn.” (<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/11/06/israel-gaza-war-hamas"">The New Yorker</a>)</div><div><p></p><p>There's been visual evidence presented of one charred baby's head with no body, and to me it seems the head was mangled as it was torn off its body in a powerful blast. It doesn't appear to me severed with a blade, although that's possible. It was photographed next to a charred knife, but that obviously proves nothing (<a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/12/the-43-minute-atrocity-video.html">see part 4</a>). </p><p>It's not clear if this is what Vach refers to, or if he alleges a second "beheaded baby" here. Per the <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-19/ty-article-magazine/israels-dead-the-names-of-those-killed-in-hamas-massacres-and-the-israel-hamas-war/0000018b-325c-d450-a3af-7b5cf0210000">widely-cited Ha'aretz list of Israel's dead</a>, just one baby is clearly listed as killed in the entire massacre. That could be an oversight or exclude some confirmations due to privacy concerns, for example. But Ha'aretz recently affirmed "According to sources including Israel's National Insurance Institute, kibbutz leaders and the police, <b>on October 7 one baby was murdered</b>, 10-month-old Mila Cohen. She was killed with her father, Ohad, in Kibbutz Be'eri. .... The police have no evidence showing that other babies were killed." (<a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-12-04/ty-article-magazine/.premium/hamas-committed-documented-atrocities-but-a-few-false-stories-feed-the-deniers/0000018c-34f3-da74-afce-b5fbe24f0000">Ha'aretz</a> - <a href="https://www.msn.com/he-il/news/other/hamas-committed-documented-atrocities-but-a-few-false-stories-feed-the-deniers/ar-AA1kYMbX">MSN</a>)</p><p>And still, I urge caution that the list - even the released police info - might be somehow incomplete. We've been shown visuals for at least 2 or maybe 3 babies killed (#1 "shot" in the head - #2 charred head, no body - #3 a charred lump, maybe the body to #2?), and there might be more. I was thinking it was just 2-3 or maybe about five babies killed in the whole attack on over a dozen settlements. Even that leaves little room for a second "beheaded baby" and so he probably refers to that ambiguous case.</p><p>Anyway, back to the part where tank fire was mentioned. Community notes pinned to Pelham's post cited <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD2JHiY3y6s">another video</a> from UK tabloid The Sun, posted October 15. This includes Col. "Vac" saying much of the same, but in a different edit. As in all related footage, he stands in front of a certain window into this damaged home. There's no mention of tanks here, but a view of one shell's likely impact point is seen nearby to the right. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQb69vN_QTMVe1Es1LnqJ9ElUscH43xxsVtcL7Vc7Te3HfDEtqxzVF8ASn2qO6Kc3kw12jBhid5E4LnfHIn6-xV_z6U8i1FWLq6pPXlIn30NEdKfMFvyzF_9vqP969fa9DE_peDMyx4HQg7nuLUBFIGtkjM96iuwTevvZhQxxNsw2wSHN1MUNe6yv1xURi/s1143/Screenshot%20(5183).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="701" data-original-width="1143" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQb69vN_QTMVe1Es1LnqJ9ElUscH43xxsVtcL7Vc7Te3HfDEtqxzVF8ASn2qO6Kc3kw12jBhid5E4LnfHIn6-xV_z6U8i1FWLq6pPXlIn30NEdKfMFvyzF_9vqP969fa9DE_peDMyx4HQg7nuLUBFIGtkjM96iuwTevvZhQxxNsw2wSHN1MUNe6yv1xURi/w640-h392/Screenshot%20(5183).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>This video includes other useful views from the left, with Vach in front of his window ...<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTVSf9V1GDmPzVVb5FCDsUJvO8SqjuiYK3VY72nnMvJhLv2taPGApQZnNsHWyVaIGPlsHZj8ls3VvOXNTvWvtdK3Fkn-DxNk4CG-AW4oDUDskP_ZDOf3Gyivx8z82fCv7hCqem_AvjlHvqp0SlxHnpomJftUno23LKULQhNoFvofGcqjphuHJsx0wBDfRk/s1131/Screenshot%20(5182).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="564" data-original-width="1131" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTVSf9V1GDmPzVVb5FCDsUJvO8SqjuiYK3VY72nnMvJhLv2taPGApQZnNsHWyVaIGPlsHZj8ls3VvOXNTvWvtdK3Fkn-DxNk4CG-AW4oDUDskP_ZDOf3Gyivx8z82fCv7hCqem_AvjlHvqp0SlxHnpomJftUno23LKULQhNoFvofGcqjphuHJsx0wBDfRk/w640-h320/Screenshot%20(5182).png" width="640" /></a></p><p><br />The damaged section sticks out relative to that window. In <a href="https://www.uncaptured.media/p/fresh-testimony-reveals-how-israel">a later view</a> we'll discuss below, this damaged section has been removed by early December. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0CXA_v7INJg1dIiv1p-Ks3jW2Z8UTxYGFFIq99QSSTHowJrWzKdejlqXhHSxJBIjUh58EXAxQGTi8aE3FihUQQeIuobMrK1l0zCnbq1l9o6XpoLqT_LwuSdEMN3Y68e0T0ZAv8-mneE2wOemnwnNfxl6XJZmUkmLT8a7jqcGrefOD4hq7923K2X-cH0Io/s755/Screenshot%20(5191).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="345" data-original-width="755" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0CXA_v7INJg1dIiv1p-Ks3jW2Z8UTxYGFFIq99QSSTHowJrWzKdejlqXhHSxJBIjUh58EXAxQGTi8aE3FihUQQeIuobMrK1l0zCnbq1l9o6XpoLqT_LwuSdEMN3Y68e0T0ZAv8-mneE2wOemnwnNfxl6XJZmUkmLT8a7jqcGrefOD4hq7923K2X-cH0Io/w640-h292/Screenshot%20(5191).png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>The Sun video includes two views inside the damaged home - one looking in through Vach's window - the burned baby pile he pointed to is roughly at center here ...</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaWPU_6bTZ1dzfSYfl59MVxUC6z8OwcxFxAXcu_xRDnEsz_vAfXOwr-QqIzJUCRoh8mjFuulrwXuPirqprTK1m-1oCpEvQXP595cw2OIu4JmcbuR4vkxkSMqK1ZazzrgkrL0r01WHH6BhE4sBorEHMO2HYAXdOcmUoPt_9e0SwurnBEmeUghuxy1B6803N/s1132/Screenshot%20(5181).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="1132" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaWPU_6bTZ1dzfSYfl59MVxUC6z8OwcxFxAXcu_xRDnEsz_vAfXOwr-QqIzJUCRoh8mjFuulrwXuPirqprTK1m-1oCpEvQXP595cw2OIu4JmcbuR4vkxkSMqK1ZazzrgkrL0r01WHH6BhE4sBorEHMO2HYAXdOcmUoPt_9e0SwurnBEmeUghuxy1B6803N/w640-h360/Screenshot%20(5181).png" width="640" /></a></div>Another view of another room (I'm not clear just how it connects):<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrUIwIhZYJEJlacqLI1gOJTmADOaz3fSfi32YG8oUB5as8oGi3v9iUGzlWCPC0wf01SCuFkEwa8RM1REC2OEmcauQDshkzhw2pHrI7a0v-ZgAfRlKUzsgvXrOqlt2FhEoViBBcUVmI51Bh8Bm9dLcxP7nR3F06VhKOEchMgODZpx2OcAeEwbJy3PNAKgRr/s1125/Screenshot%20(5185).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="571" data-original-width="1125" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrUIwIhZYJEJlacqLI1gOJTmADOaz3fSfi32YG8oUB5as8oGi3v9iUGzlWCPC0wf01SCuFkEwa8RM1REC2OEmcauQDshkzhw2pHrI7a0v-ZgAfRlKUzsgvXrOqlt2FhEoViBBcUVmI51Bh8Bm9dLcxP7nR3F06VhKOEchMgODZpx2OcAeEwbJy3PNAKgRr/w640-h325/Screenshot%20(5185).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Vach speaks here about a Hamas practice of "concentrating people to one place to kill them and to burn them. What exactly is the reason I do not know. But after a few days I knew that I should follow the fires." At each site, he would find people gathered and burned by Hamas, and at least in this case, coincidental damage from IDF tank fire. Maybe Hamas did this to pre-absolve the IDF of any deaths? </p><p>The tank fire was clearly mentioned by Vach at the same presentation filmed by many others. Yet no reports that I've seen, aside from the one in question, includes anything about this detail. It wasn't in the Sun report. It's not in a report from Christian Broadcast News, October 14, hearing from Col. Golan "Zach." <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aI-bb0tfCgs">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aI-bb0tfCgs</a></p><p>Here, he found "a family" outside "exactly where we are standing now" at the same window. "They were laying here, 2 couples, handcuffed and murdered. 2 women, 2 men. But this was only the beginning of what we saw inside. In this corner of this living room [pointing to a spot with elevated smoke stains], <b>we find a concentration of 8 babies burned</b>, among 15 other people, all in the same whole - in this living room and the next one." Again, there's no mention of IDF tanks in this report.</p><p><a href="https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2023/10/27/israel-idf-eyewitness-confirm-hamas-beheaded-baby-n1738583">A report at PJMedia</a> cites this presentation: "Standing before a burned and ravaged house, Col. Vach explained to a journalist, “I found here two couples, two men and women, and inside we… found eight babies, burned, in this corner, among [other] people burned in the house, a total of 19 people.” That was just one house, and there were 19 people burned to death by Palestinian terrorists. Vach replied. One can only imagine how awful — and how horribly painful it was for the babies and adults to die that way, decapitated or burned to death." They pray for Israel's victory. Again, there's no mention of IDF tanks in this report.</p><p>Another interview at the same event, this one in Hebrew with no captioning available MIGHT discuss the tank attack: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQfLijnYqYI">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQfLijnYqYI</a></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf2YDD75z2TWMEr0XxVqdAj3wE1Dp-OoOUr4xzuxoTKDAvOJZbU8r4UdD3x2dCBFjB1iDEzByEUSvM3ctAhkpIk1dzIrpXjCjeSbbWukd0Vx0h5IutBY8jVJaVoLGy5NQMJG4Hh79-VkxQaSPYuzEH23w5N0Xh78nrEEldIysHvqCfHw2UKZLa-vFFz4VD/s1198/Screenshot%20(5197).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="886" data-original-width="1198" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf2YDD75z2TWMEr0XxVqdAj3wE1Dp-OoOUr4xzuxoTKDAvOJZbU8r4UdD3x2dCBFjB1iDEzByEUSvM3ctAhkpIk1dzIrpXjCjeSbbWukd0Vx0h5IutBY8jVJaVoLGy5NQMJG4Hh79-VkxQaSPYuzEH23w5N0Xh78nrEEldIysHvqCfHw2UKZLa-vFFz4VD/w400-h296/Screenshot%20(5197).png" width="400" /></a></div>I also found the same exact footage posted by "Pelham," complete with the same titles and the same edit, posted just then - December 7 - by Turkish Anadolu Agency. These are supposed to be professional journalists. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQqxQXu0uQM">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQqxQXu0uQM</a> This was related above, at the same location and about the same time, but delivered a bit differently as in the other videos - same delivery <a href="https://twitter.com/GoldsteinBrooke/status/1717914776309739571">here</a>, in a video from the Daily Mail, but in a different edit. <p></p><p>Video description: "Anadolu obtained footage of Lt. Col. Golan Vach's statement on Oct. 14 to members of the foreign press in the kibbutz, where clashes occurred between the army and Hamas." Which Kibbutz? The description gives "the agricultural community of Kibbutz Kfar Aza" to the north, but onscreen it says Holit Kibbutz, to the south. Everyone else says it's Be'eri, in the middle. I'm with the crowd on this point. Continuing ...</p><p>"The commander of an Israeli search and rescue team stoked controversy last month while discussing the army's role in the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, saying that Israeli civilians were killed when army tanks fired at houses to reclaim the agricultural community of Kibbutz Kfar Aza near the Gaza Strip from the Palestinian group."</p><p>They don't have the IDF handcuffing the victims, but still, this is some shoddy reading. Even here with the edit, he says "our tanks attacked" to kill the barricaded terrorists, but "they" had already "concentrated" and burned people in the same spot. Anadolu clip cons: confused location, confusing edit, confused/misleading interpretation - pros: the only one mentioning the supposedly coincidental tank fire - evident enough from the imagery.</p><p>But of course understanding what Vach factually said doesn't require us to accept what he said <i>as fact.</i> And as I'll show below, what he said here is pointedly NOT factual.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Alleged "Baby" and Children Tallies</span></b></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/GoldsteinBrooke/status/1717914776309739571">Another video</a> from the Daily Mail seems to record the same delivery as the Anadolu one, but edited to exclude the tank mention. This one adds "we knew where it was. I pointed out the house." I first read that as he pointed this damaged house out to the tank crew who then fired. But this apparently refers to another house with the decapitated baby. He's then asked if he saw the baby, he says he did, and confirms it was beheaded. </p><p>Again, that makes for at least nine "babies" he saw killed in Be'eri. Again, per the <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-19/ty-article-magazine/israels-dead-the-names-of-those-killed-in-hamas-massacres-and-the-israel-hamas-war/0000018b-325c-d450-a3af-7b5cf0210000">widely-cited Ha'aretz list of Israel's dead</a>, just one baby is clearly listed, and again "The police have no evidence showing that other babies were killed." Even if there were actually two or more, and both/all were killed at Be'eri, it's still hard to see how Vach could possibly see 9+ murdered babies there. Harder yet if there was just one.</p><p>Add 12/13: "two infants" were included on a list including those "killed by thousands of invading terrorists and by some of the thousands of rockets fired that day at Israeli cities" One may be from a rocket attack. So the direct massacre death toll of infants would be 1 or 2, and probably no higher. <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/14-kids-under-10-25-people-over-80-up-to-date-breakdown-of-oct-7-victims-we-know-about/ar-AA1kZG3M">https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/14-kids-under-10-25-people-over-80-up-to-date-breakdown-of-oct-7-victims-we-know-about/ar-AA1kZG3M</a></p><p>The problem also ranged wider: A ZAKA rescuer reported some 20 children's bodies, bound and burned, in 2 piles at Be'eri - seemingly additional to the 9 Vach found, but maybe including those, relocated - and one boy aged 6 or 7 was reportedly shot dead in a safe room (while no kids that age were confirmed killed), for a suggested total of about 21-30 murdered children vs. the nine now confirmed. </p><p>But just sticking to Vach's portion, Ha'aretz reported December 4 how "a few false stories feed the deniers" (<a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-12-04/ty-article-magazine/.premium/hamas-committed-documented-atrocities-but-a-few-false-stories-feed-the-deniers/0000018c-34f3-da74-afce-b5fbe24f0000">Ha'aretz</a> - <a href="https://www.msn.com/he-il/news/other/hamas-committed-documented-atrocities-but-a-few-false-stories-feed-the-deniers/ar-AA1kYMbX">MSN</a>): </p><p></p><blockquote><i>"As for Col. Vach’s remarks on the bodies of eight burned babies, the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said he “described difficult sights that he saw during his various missions evacuating bodies at the start of the war. The review was conducted in English, and <b>the officer used the word 'babies' to describe a number of children’s bodies that were found. </b>The error was made in good faith and does not mitigate the severity of the atrocities committed." </i></blockquote><p></p><p>So Vach just affectionately called them all "babies," because they were all someone's babies, and not for any propaganda-related reason. Officially. </p><p>And it was a "number" of killed children. The same Ha'aretz report says a total of "Nine minors were murdered at Be'eri." That wasn't connected to this claim, but I'll connect it here. I dug around to find the ages of these nine minors. The only agreed infant is one: Mila Cohen (10m). The others are the twins Yanai and Leil Hetzroni (12) - sisters Noya Sharabi (16) and Yahel Sharabi (13) - brothers Alon Even (16) and Ido Even (14) - plus Lior Tarshansky (16) and Tahel Bira (15). There were quite possibly a few more, including babies, that just aren't publicly listed, but Ha'aretz seems to think nine is the exact and final total. </p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #38761d;">Overall death toll side-notes: Ha'aretz 12/4 reported 87 kibbutz residents were killed, and one (Yehudit Weiss) died as a captive in Gaza - their comprehensive list had 99 then 98 names from/killed in Be'eri last I checked - Oct. 7 map has 83 names of those killed including Weiss + 29 killed "on duty" = 111 in the attack - but others say 130 were killed (Oct. 7 map, Be'eri massacre pane: "the ruthless murder of over 130 community members" - Yossi Landau tally of 280 bodies, vs. estimates of 150 terrorists killed = ~130 civilians, and 80% of all (some terrorists included) bore signs of "torture" and/or unacknowledged IDF tank fire) (<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/israel-gaza-war-recovered-bodies-show-bloodthirsty-gunmen-took-time-over-torture-and-that-hamas-has-changed-12985212">Sky News</a>) - foreign workers, rave attendees who fled to Be'eri might be what adds up to 130 or even more. But there may or may not be additional children, including babies. </span></p></blockquote><p>The 12-year-old Hetzroni twins Yanai (brother) and Liel (sister) are the only kids I know the clear story of (see below) - killed in a house otherwise filled with adults, and none of the 6 other kids they were allegedly piled with. I doubt the other six were ever gathered in a single place either, so we probably have the 8 older children spread between at least 3 locales, not the one Vach describes.</p><p>Liel Hetzroni was identified from fragmentary remains over a month later. on November 13, and was publicly declared missing and perhaps kidnapped until then. But Vach's information might have included her death as confirmed, for 9 killed children to work with even then. </p><p>If the Ha'aretz list is complete, then Vach presumably describes Mila Cohen (the only "baby" he described as actually very young) as beheaded in the foiled protection of, we would assume, her deceased mother. However: Ohad Cohen, 43 "was brutally murdered by ruthless terrorists. ... along with his infant daughter, Mila, just 10 months old. His wife, Sandra, was gravely injured but survived." (<a href="https://oct7map.com/OhadCohen">Mapping the Massacres (oct7map.com)</a>) Ha'aretz 12/4: "Ten-month-old Mila Cohen was murdered in the massacre, along with the baby still in the womb of her mother who died after her mother was shot on the way to hospital." </p><p>That might be the same and only very pregnant woman described - by ZAKA head Yossi Landau - as found brutally executed with the fetus removed and stabbed to death. Ha'aretz reported on 12/4 how "Be'eri,” the police, and "a pathology source at the Shura army base" had no real information on such a killing, however much Landau tears up on recalling it.</p><p>Either way, she wasn't dead, on fire, and wrapped around a decapitated Mila. Was anyone? Or was this a different baby? If so, was it a different one that actually existed, or one Col. Vach simply made up?</p><p>And he claims he found the other 8 children - if that list is complete, including the "missing" Liel - all in that single pile, as if for sheer convenience of story-telling. Of course, they were all murdered, mutilated and burned before the IDF ever arrived. Now pause to consider ... Did he really see the bodies of three 16-year-olds, others aged 15, 14, 13, and two aged 12, piled and burned in this spot? Maybe the pile extended a ways from that wall, and wasn't too disturbed by the later and unrelated tank shelling? </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXKpJbKO2SGuQfwQQEQ_0iLNq__JysmA9VRcN4BN7Bef_3vKflTnB2iuTlr5ApQObvgx2R53PXNtvi0LwCfDu4X3t8IhmZ3WDGWULffazgpQ50PGkynvjcvz-eQQnOy_RvlD7VXaLUegBXrXYnq-7Y7hgvZ7B61MXiCvqMFvIeP5GKfMTTf1JiHB92orXv/s675/10-7_8_babies.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="456" data-original-width="675" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXKpJbKO2SGuQfwQQEQ_0iLNq__JysmA9VRcN4BN7Bef_3vKflTnB2iuTlr5ApQObvgx2R53PXNtvi0LwCfDu4X3t8IhmZ3WDGWULffazgpQ50PGkynvjcvz-eQQnOy_RvlD7VXaLUegBXrXYnq-7Y7hgvZ7B61MXiCvqMFvIeP5GKfMTTf1JiHB92orXv/w640-h432/10-7_8_babies.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>To be fair, their bodies would compress some with damage. Liel at least was in such small pieces others wouldn't see them for weeks. But it seems Vach made out her remains just fine, or he simply knew she was dead - after all, it was the sudden end to her screaming that clarified their tank shells worked - and so he included her for a total of "eight babies." </p><p>Or did he make another "honest mistake" about the piling? The honesty part might be arguable, but his story makes little sense and furthermore, <b>survivors from the actual events at this house describe a much different story, which many of us already know. </b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Col. Vach vs. the Survivors </span></b></p><p>Thanks to another timely video release and <a href="https://twitter.com/qoppa_backup/status/1733981360576974962">a tip from Qoppa</a>, I can say <span style="background-color: #f1c232;">this tank-damaged house in Be'eri that Col. Vach spoke at is the same house described by survivors Yasmin Porat and Hadas Dagan (see below or for more detail, see <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/11/who-was-behind-kibbutz-massacres.html">part 2</a>). And they were clear <b>IDF tank fire - not Hamas - killed everyone there</b>. </span></p><p>Just now, December 10, Uncaptured News passed on details from a new Israeli media report featuring more from Hadas Dagan. <a href="https://www.uncaptured.media/p/fresh-testimony-reveals-how-israel">Fresh testimony reveals how Israel killed captives in Kibbutz Be’eri on October 7 (uncaptured.media)</a> - <a href="https://twitter.com/UncapturedNews/status/1733916163992592877">Uncaptured News on X</a>. The video including repeated footage of a single house - presumably the one where the described events unfolded. The interior shown in this video is the same one Vach pointed into. Below I compare a view from 2 combined frames (top) compared to the interior seen in the Sun video. Several exterior views also clarify <b>it's the same house</b>, albeit with a damaged section torn away since October (see above). </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNHhwGlVS7SietzroapZpOmbvy2XTjsQ_sEipmcsdSO0qz2HCBr937q2rdmJiGqdgVYbAgvIfKTXNeQgpmHmsr-C2bUm6rmiT_FCcguNOtBSmAXeGm2Eu2r6mA2dkj9VIxi6XZbe3VoeO9jh7JTQH_KdnDvZBfpiod29jp11t1si7iSEqbd3XK7fZWM5RR/s1243/10-7_8_babies_2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="595" data-original-width="1243" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNHhwGlVS7SietzroapZpOmbvy2XTjsQ_sEipmcsdSO0qz2HCBr937q2rdmJiGqdgVYbAgvIfKTXNeQgpmHmsr-C2bUm6rmiT_FCcguNOtBSmAXeGm2Eu2r6mA2dkj9VIxi6XZbe3VoeO9jh7JTQH_KdnDvZBfpiod29jp11t1si7iSEqbd3XK7fZWM5RR/w640-h306/10-7_8_babies_2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Porat and Dagan describe 13 civilians killed here, not 19, and that included just 2 children - the Hetzroni twins - along with some 40 Hamas fighters, all killed when the IDF fired 2 tank shells into the house. I gave a detailed relation of their narrative in part 2, <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/11/who-was-behind-kibbutz-massacres.html">Who was Behind the Kibbutz Massacres?</a> (The new Dagan account from <a href="https://www.uncaptured.media/p/fresh-testimony-reveals-how-israel">uncaptured.media</a> isn't included.)</p><p>Israeli official accounts announced “All that remains of 12 year old Liel Hetzroni is ash and bone fragments." (Israel on X) after she was murdered "in her home by Hamas monsters.” (Former PM Naftali Bennett on X). Now adding: Col Vach says she was one of "8 babies" found burned in this corner of, as it turns out, Pessi Cohen's home. He agrees Hamas did it and the tank shelling of the same house had no part. </p><p>But Hadas Dagan confirmed to Porat that it was the IDF's tank shells and ensuing fire that turned Liel into charred pieces: “‘The girl did not stop screaming for all those hours … [but] when those two shells hit, [Liel] stopped screaming. There was silence then.” </p><p>There were people on the lawn in that story, but no couples we know of. The 2 survivors' husbands both died there, along with 1-2 other people, after Hadas was blown aside but spared - perhaps both of the others were women, allowing the impression of 2 couples. There were then just 8 or 9 civilians inside, including the twins. All 13 fatalities named via <a href="https://www.uncaptured.media/p/fresh-testimony-reveals-how-israel">uncaptured.media</a>: Pessi Cohen, Hanna Cohen, Yitzhak ‘Zizi’ Siton, Tal Siton, Hava Ben Ami, twins Liel and Yanai Hetzroni, Ayala ‘Aylus’ Hetzroni (the twins' great-aunt), Zehava Hacker, Ze’ev Hacker, Suheib Abu Amer, Tal Katz (Yasmin Porat's husband or partner), and Adi Dagan (Hadas Dagan’s husband). Most were older people, and no source has claimed any minors present aside from the Hetzroni twins. </p><p>Ha'aretz 12/4: "One case that sounds similar to the description by the Zaka member [of 20 dead children in Kfar Aza or Be'eri, depending on the version] occurred not on Kfar Azza but behind the dining hall at Be'eri, where dozens of Hamas terrorists held 15 Israelis in and around the house of Pessi Cohen and House 424 in the Ashelim neighborhood. Thirteen of the hostages were murdered, including the twins Yanai and Liel Hetzroni, 12." But this was already claimed as the site of Col. Vach's 8 burned babies, and it turns out that "murder" of 13 civilians was committed by the IDF.</p><p>But Vach had 19 civilians killed here, <b>adding six</b> to the established 13. <b>He also has 6 children too many</b> (8 vs. 2), besides calling them all babies. Is that exactly what he added? The other six minors he didn't already find beheaded? In fact, Liel's remains were here or nearby, alongside her brother Yanai. But it remains odd how Vach knew to count her, even though no one else could supposedly make out those charred fragments. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5eMEvJwmoxvFGJPWfK5otFXQ3YyFVBltTstvM5y8W_S7OwzET1lUOVhXGR4hxZW37xUO87gCYzXBLdtxqRfS7Ungqjkv7ogG9-l99Nihg53k5IYADQC7WV-zZ38kgL8Z0joFmG1cY01ZRqNET5-FojVQG1VdOsi4OlNVkHAxLuI2S9ka0x6wBDs-6yMRi/s848/Screenshot%20(5198).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="577" data-original-width="848" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5eMEvJwmoxvFGJPWfK5otFXQ3YyFVBltTstvM5y8W_S7OwzET1lUOVhXGR4hxZW37xUO87gCYzXBLdtxqRfS7Ungqjkv7ogG9-l99Nihg53k5IYADQC7WV-zZ38kgL8Z0joFmG1cY01ZRqNET5-FojVQG1VdOsi4OlNVkHAxLuI2S9ka0x6wBDs-6yMRi/s320/Screenshot%20(5198).png" width="320" /></a></div>But he clearly went beyond fact to have all the others piled here with them, as if to simplify the narrative. He went another step beyond in calling these teenagers all "babies." And did he honestly think Hamas killed those people, rather than the IDF's tank assault? That seems possible but unlikely. He probably realized he was covering up the truth with more hateful anti-Palestinian propaganda about murdered Israeli "babies."<div><br /></div><div>He might as well break out the guitar and strum us some mood music to go with his works of tragedy fiction. <p></p></div></div><div><p><b>Add 1/5/24: </b>I don't want to re-write the stuff above, but there were two further child death in Be'eri I had missed, and one was known at the time: Carmel Bachar, age 15. Considering that, Vach probably included him in that pile and had Liel just as missing as everybody else. So his pile of 8 "babies" would be aged 16, 16, 16, 15, 15, 14, 13, and just one aged 12. </p><p>There was also a younger boy aged around 5, initially unidentified, "found inside a house set on fire by the terrorists after he tried to hide from them in an attic." (<a href="https://www.mako.co.il/home-family-relationship/Article-c1681e02f244b81027.htm">Mako 10/18</a>). But he was only discovered 4 days after Vach's interview, so the "terrorists" didn't know to include that boy in the pile. I'm not sure if the boy was ever identified and included in later tallies. Something to find out.</p><p>A fuller edit of the Anadolu footage emerged, <a href="https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1741929665307009489">posted on X by Max Blumenthal</a> the other day, starting some new discussion. </p><p></p><blockquote><p>Israeli Lt. Col. Golan Vach suggests his tanks killed at least 19 Israelis, including 8 children, in one strike on 10/7</p><p>During this presser on 10/14 in front of a destroyed kibbutz home (resembling the Pessi Cohen home in Kibbutz Beeri), Vach said, "This destruction is due to the attack by our tanks. Since these houses were seized by Hamas, we had to reclaim the entire settlement. It wouldn't have been possible without tanks... No one survived in this house."</p></blockquote><p></p><p>The quote is paraphrased but close enough. Several readers challenged the "suggestion" that IDF tanks had killed the 19 civilians here. That's fair enough, so I felt compelled to step in and correct things for several people, as I did above, and clarify he blames Hamas, but he's wrong. It is <i>exactly </i>Pessi Cohen's house he spoke at, or the one shown on video as if it were hers, so we can directly compare his story with that of the two survivors. Aside from the 6-7 added "babies," he gives the right death toll of adults (11), even down to the 4 on the grass. Note how he denies there were any survivors. Oops for him. They exist and pretty well disprove his silly story.</p></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-42801842103496138322023-12-04T10:41:00.000-08:002023-12-18T03:44:19.683-08:00 The 43-Minute Atrocity Video <p><b>October 7 Massacre in Israel, part 4: </b><b>The 43-Minute Atrocity Video </b></p><p><b>December 4, 2023</b></p><p><b>update 12/5</b></p><p>This was meant to be the final installment in a 4-part series, until I got extra curious what was and wasn't included in the widely-seen and widely-cited 43-minute compilation of videos documenting Hamas atrocities on October 7. This review expanded to where it needs its own post now. Next will be a part 5 with some leftover visuals vs. claims and some review yet to decide.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">4A) "Bearing Witness"</span></b></p><p>Israel has been clear since October 7 that Hamas is the same as ISIS or even worse, same as the Nazis or even worse. The most extreme accusations are all true and attest to savagery that, along with the widespread support it receives in Gaza, defies Humanity and moots related concepts like Human Rights as considerations in Israel's response to eradicate Hamas entirely at any cost. Let's start with some of the more shocking horrors we were told Hamas visited on innocent Israeli citizens (this is optional reading for the faint of heart):</p><p></p><blockquote><i>... "a terrorist who admitted that he had clear orders to kill women and children and even rape the bodies of the dead" - "order to behead people and play football with the severed heads" - a hiding witness "saw a woman being raped by several Hamas terrorists, pulling her hair as they raped her and took turns. One of them cut her breasts off - the others played with them like a toy. The last terrorist to rape her shot her in the head and continued to rape her until her finished. Eyewitness also says some terrorists were carrying heads in their hands (beheaded) as trophies, saying there wasn’t a thing they didn’t do to the heads. She also saw a Hamas terrorist carrying a naked girl over his shoulder." </i></blockquote><p></p><p>Witness saw a lot! Some, including myself, are skeptical of such claims, that Hamas fighters on a likely suicide mission to kill and/or kidnap as many as possible would have the time for such elaborate cruelty, even if they had the inclination. </p><p>Israeli officials claimed from the start that they have serious video evidence you would expect for crimes on the scale they allege, and just can't show it openly out of respect for the victims and their families, and/or because it's part of an investigation, and/or out of concern for the public's mental health. So by October 23 the IDF press office pulled together a 43-minute assemblage of video proof for the naysayers, antisemitic and otherwise. It's rarely mentioned, but apparently, the film has a title: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bearing_Witness_(2023_film)">Bearing Witness (2023 film) - Wikipedia</a>). </p><p>Purpose: to argue against a humanitarian ceasefire and to explain and justify Israel's relentless efforts to eradicate Hamas, even as that has come to involve a genocidal war on the people of Gaza. Or: "Major General Mickey Edelstein, who spoke to the assembled journalists, said they wanted to present an argument against the idea that there is any equivalence between the Hamas attack and Israel’s response."</p><p>Wood explained: “What he said they wanted to show was that this is what Hamas is doing. They are hunting down children. They are burning children. They’re shooting babies. They’re tying people up and burning them alive. The IDF, whatever their faults, they’re not doing that. There are babies the IDF has killed but you will not find footage of hunting those babies down in order to kill them. You’ll find them blowing up a building that has a baby in it. From that perspective of that particular officer this is a very different situation, and by seeing the raw video do you realize exactly how different it is.”</p><p><a href="https://www.mediaite.com/news/i-hope-that-i-am-not-permanently-changed-the-atlantics-graeme-wood-describes-witnessing-footage-of-hamas-atrocities/">https://www.mediaite.com/news/i-hope-that-i-am-not-permanently-changed-the-atlantics-graeme-wood-describes-witnessing-footage-of-hamas-atrocities/</a></p><p>Of course an estimated 6,000 innocent children have been killed in very many buildings, but point taken - the cruelty isn't as immediate or clearly purposeful as what Hamas<i> allegedly </i>did to probably about 40-50 children total. But again ... the truth of even those allegations should not be taken as an article of faith. </p><p>To doubt these claims is to engage in "Holocaust-denial like" activity, as Eylon Levy, an Israeli government spokesperson, put it. (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/23/israel-shows-footage-of-hamas-killings-to-counter-denial-of-atrocities">Guardian</a>) Israeli journalist Jotam Confino <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnGTzx4N6z4">agrees</a> the evidence for the gravest crimes of Hamas is overwhelming, and to deny that truth, "you may as well deny the Holocaust." Sharon Brous, a rabbi in Los Angeles, lamented “It should be enough that there are eyewitness accounts and there are funerals and there are shivas and there are bereaved families,” - people died, so obviously Hamas slaughtered them all in the cruelest ways. But sadly, the facts of death were not enough. "So there has to be a historical record that’s established, and these videos are part of establishing that record.” (Guardian)</p><p>Even now, <i>Bearing Witness</i> is only shown by invitation in private screenings that strictly bar any recording, out of respect for the families. But as Owen Jones noted "a significant amount [of the footage] is in the public domain." Indeed. Out of respect for the families, Israeli sources, some of them official, have been pushing some half of this material in our faces from the start. </p><p>Some of the presentation is video of witnesses lodging the exact claims quoted above - basically "trust me, the movie." But there's also real meat - video proof of some genuine Hamas war crimes. That's the main point. Many influential people have been brought in for a private viewing, and they often walk out in tears or worse, and describe it as worse than anything they could have imagined. But a few have noticed it's not quite as horrible as the things they had already heard about, imagined as true, and been promised evidence for. </p><p>A few noticed this bait-and-switch effect. Owen Jones, to his credit, gave <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc5iG3DX7ho">a balanced account</a> of the film's content. Serious war crimes are depicted, but "some high profile claims are not substantiated by the footage." As he saw it, there were no beheadings of living people, and no children are seen being killed (or not clearly - opinions differ on one possible case). "If there was torture too, there's no evidence given for it on camera," and "if there was rape and sexual violence, we don't see this in the footage either." He also notes the video selection wasn't random but probably culled from the worst they have, having gone through a lot of footage. The starting claims and their like are still "Trust me." (note on Jones' overall presentation: including the watermelon shirt, it's kind of "poser" but authentic or not ... it's a good pose. Seeing all this suffering should make one want to end this cycle of violence, not to escalate it.)</p><p>Maybe not at the screening Jones attended, but in some cases, the presenters were pretty up-front about their failure to present the hard stuff: <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/horror-israeli-authorities-show-footage-hamas-atrocities-reporters-notebook/story?id=104015431">Matt Gutman, ABC News, 10/16</a> "You won't see rape, there's no rape in this video... We won't show you beheaded babies," a senior Israeli officer said to a small group of journalists, saying such images existed but would not be shown." This might be reasonable or even necessary. A viewer could be seriously traumatized seeing such things occurring in immersive video with audio - not to mention the victim's family, spirit or memory.</p><p>But there are ways they could have conveyed this supposed proof in less direct ways - drop the soundtrack, use still shots and blurring, etc. For example, a blurred rape scene with key site details might be matched to selected frames from the attacker's body camera placing him there with the victim, and maybe see him switching it off for then-obvious reasons. A baby beheading video could show the moment the blade is set to cut and end with the blurred results, all from the same body camera view. If they have any serious amount of evidence, something like this should be possible. Instead, all we get is possibly fabricated verbal accounts and poorly interpreted after-the-fact images (see below) to suggest such things happened. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfro2LdjmVv7dPmlXmlFLsVZ2JsAcdzOazXTtyTrbdAya7zrieN8ljRSCUupscm4QaduPjWtm61YSUQOUQ-o6Xzs5MahSLycs1i7qpcG-Z27Gs1aZxXlPe1m_67V0TrYt5DrtknoquY8PUtx6il-DRJuaw5l-HIHu5ulTO26gJrzdqv9FqRBOpfqe9_kM3/s1054/Screenshot%20(5164).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1054" data-original-width="614" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfro2LdjmVv7dPmlXmlFLsVZ2JsAcdzOazXTtyTrbdAya7zrieN8ljRSCUupscm4QaduPjWtm61YSUQOUQ-o6Xzs5MahSLycs1i7qpcG-Z27Gs1aZxXlPe1m_67V0TrYt5DrtknoquY8PUtx6il-DRJuaw5l-HIHu5ulTO26gJrzdqv9FqRBOpfqe9_kM3/w233-h400/Screenshot%20(5164).png" width="233" /></a></div><p></p><p></p>Reducing this to black humor should be in poor taste and off the mark. <a href="https://twitter.com/propandco/status/1727340114815128037">This little animation by Propaganda & Co.</a> is just that - but JUST BARELY. This is about how it is. Real footage of relevant and criminal activity is shown, but the truly bestial stuff that really set Israelis ablaze and primed them for a prolonged genocide ... it's still secret and/or it doesn't exist. <div><div><br /></div><div>Oh, and they use editing. Per <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/exclusive-complete-description-of-43-minute-footage-showing-oct-7-hamas-horror-2453663-2023-10-25">Shiv Aroor's "complete description"</a> they show "a completely charred infant, the head of either an infant or a toddler, more charred infants and a dog shot dead in a living room ... an ISIS flag on the floor ... a woman shot dead in a baby playroom and another slumped with gunshot wounds in a laundry room" followed immediately with audio of a fighter calling his parents, bragging he killed 10 Jews, and his parents cheer in response. Several people find this the most "chilling" moment in the whole film. They're HAPPY about whatever the editors just showed me! Maybe flattening all of Gaza is a good idea if they're this messed up. </div><div><br /></div><div>But this ignores that those killed could be all or mainly soldiers, at least as far as the parents know (even the woman whose phone he calls with). It ignores that the parents are partly happy because their son is still alive. In fact one viewer, Aroor, noted the fighter's mother "comes to the phone apparently in tears, asking her son to come back with god’s help. He says there is no return, and that this is the way he has chosen for martyrdom. His weeping mother pleads with him to come home." Chilling stuff. It's also possible the call is fake, but to me, it fits perfectly between the mid-level brutality we see Hamas engaged in and the frayed connections to normal Humanity that would trail such a fighter into that dead end.</div><div><br /></div><div>No one mentions a musical score or its absence, so I would guess it's there but subtle, and quietly purposeful. <br /><p>In this post, I'll consider all the widely-cited video scenes described by viewers. Some seem to describe already-public images that can be checked. Some that's public, or private but credible, does document serious abuses (or seems to), but as Jones noted they fail to support the more extreme claims. This is apparently the worst that Israel could find in thousands of hours of footage from: found cell phone videos, public and private security cameras, dash cams, and Hamas body cameras, worn by perhaps all of the estimated 1,000 fighters IDF killed between October 7 and 9 - the footage from many of these would be available unedited.</p><p>Sources for scene descriptions, mainly cited below by last name: </p><p>Matt Gutman 10/16 <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/horror-israeli-authorities-show-footage-hamas-atrocities-reporters-notebook/story?id=104015431">https://abcnews.go.com/International/horror-israeli-authorities-show-footage-hamas-atrocities-reporters-notebook/story?id=104015431</a></p><p>Jotam Confino 10/23: <a href="https://twitter.com/mrconfino/status/1716426427455655964">Jotam Confino on X: "I just saw indescribable, raw footage... </a> </p><p>Gómez Armas 10/23 <a href="https://efe.com/en/latest-news/2023-10-24/live-carnage-and-bodies-in-ashes-israel-releases-footage-of-hamas-massacre/">https://efe.com/en/latest-news/2023-10-24/live-carnage-and-bodies-in-ashes-israel-releases-footage-of-hamas-massacre/</a> </p><p>Graeme Wood 10/23 <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/10/why-israeli-officials-screened-footage-hamas-attack/675735/">Why Israeli Officials Screened Footage of the Hamas Attack - The Atlantic</a></p><p>Ronny Reyes, 10/23: <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/10/23/news/idf-shares-harrowing-videos-photos-of-hamas-attack/">https://nypost.com/2023/10/23/news/idf-shares-harrowing-videos-photos-of-hamas-attack/</a></p><p>Carrie Keller-Lynn 10/23 <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-shows-foreign-press-raw-hamas-bodycam-videos-of-murder-torture-decapitation/">IDF shows foreign press Hamas bodycam videos, photos of murder, torture, decapitation | The Times of Israel</a></p><p>Shiv Aroor 10/26 - "A complete description" - <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/exclusive-complete-description-of-43-minute-footage-showing-oct-7-hamas-horror-2453663-2023-10-25">https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/exclusive-complete-description-of-43-minute-footage-showing-oct-7-hamas-horror-2453663-2023-10-25</a></p><p>Charles Lane 11/1 <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/01/hamas-attack-videos-described/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/01/hamas-attack-videos-described/</a></p><p>Joe Kelley 11/1 <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54ebCq0iQ18">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54ebCq0iQ18</a></p><p>Evan Dyer 11/2 <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/israel-hamas-gaza-palestinian-1.7016989">https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/israel-hamas-gaza-palestinian-1.7016989</a></p><p>Lee Kern 11/18 <a href="https://twitter.com/leekern13/status/1725791167902523403">https://twitter.com/leekern13/status/1725791167902523403</a></p><p>Ruth Mark Eglash 11/25: <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/world/i-will-be-haunted-forever-israels-horrific-video-hamas-atrocities-leaves-viewers-shocked-sickened">'I will be haunted forever’: Israel’s horrific video of Hamas atrocities leaves viewers shocked and sickened (foxnews.com)</a></p><p>Owen Jones 11/27: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc5iG3DX7ho">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc5iG3DX7ho</a></p><p>Rabbi Shmuley: 11/29 <a href="https://twitter.com/RabbiShmuley/status/1729931042847351033">https://twitter.com/RabbiShmuley/status/1729931042847351033</a></p><p>Rachel Johnson 11/30 <a href="https://ca.style.yahoo.com/opinion-rape-murder-mutilation-industrial-153245198.html">https://ca.style.yahoo.com/opinion-rape-murder-mutilation-industrial-153245198.html</a></p><p><b>Public image sources: </b>most are available at both <a href="http://Hamas-massacre.net">Hamas-massacre.net</a> and Hamas.com (Israeli fake, w/malware reported - visit only with caution), and variously in other places. Sometimes it gets deleted then re-posted, and I haven't kept track. You might find any missing images with your own search.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">4B) Nine scenes depicting crimes as they're committed</span></b></p><div><b>4B1) Father Killed Shielding his Sons</b></div><div>Public (AFAIK): No. Several people agree this was the most troubling scene - Armas: "One of the most difficult scenes to watch, and one that caused a strong reaction among the reporters in the room" - including several camera views assembled to tell a complex story - a father and his 2 sons, just roused from bed and still in their underwear, rush to hide "in the bunker in the courtyard" (Armas). Keller-Lynn: "Moments after they enter presumed safety, a hand appears onscreen, tossing a grenade in after the family. The father dies, and the boys exit, covered in his blood." (Aroor recalled shooting into the "courtyard of sorts," but everyone else saw a grenade used). The father managed to take the main blast and was killed, while his boys survived, covered in his blood. They cry and try to process the reality (one asks "Why am I still alive?") as the terrorist grabs himself a drink from their fridge (and/or "offers [the boys] water and coke from their own refrigerator" - Armas). Some noticed that the terrorist does not murder the children when he could have. </div><div><br /></div><div>The boys were apparently injured, one perhaps losing an eye to the shrapnel. One boy asks the other if he can see from his injured eye, and he says he cannot. No one specifies which eye it is - the video is apparently vague on the point. Armas: "Later, the mother can be seen arriving with two kibbutz security guards to find the father’s grenade-torn body at the door of the shelter." She breaks down sobbing, but with Hamas around, the guards have to rush her away, leaving the boys behind. You would assume the boys would be kidnapped back to Gaza, but it seems the fighters made an exception here and left them alone. Dyer noted "After a lapse of time, with no more gunmen present, the two boys appear to escape the property. Israeli officials were unable to say if they ultimately survived." Joe Kelley says he asked the embassy, who said they don't know the boys' fate. </div><div><br /></div><div>This can hardly be some recycled video from any other event. It hasn't been made public to check, but I have no doubt this terrible incident happened about as described (with recall varying). However, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/israel-shows-hamas-terror-videos-to-document-horrific-attack/a-67305110">a DW report</a> seems to refer to this scene, with Israeli military sources adding extra claims not reflected in or contradicted by the video: </div><div><br /></div><div><div>"Some recordings broke off abruptly, as if relatives could only allow so much to be seen. The rest of the footage remains under lock and key as part of an ongoing investigation, according to Olga Poliakov, military attache at the Berlin embassy. After the screening, she confirmed that <b>Hamas terrorists at the Be'eri kibbutz had in fact stabbed out the young boy's eye. She said it remains unclear whether the mother and her two sons survived." </b></div><div><br /></div><div>No one noticed the fighter STABBING that boy in the eye. Most agree he lobbed in a grenade from a distance, and the boys emerge on their own. But he stabbed the boy's eye as well, then offered them a drink and left them alone as if in apology? And if they don't know what happened to the boys or their mother afterwards, how was it confirmed that an unseen stabbing took out his eye? They should have nothing to go on but that video. I wouldn't be surprised if they initially found that Hamas tore the father apart with a crowbar as his imagined family was made to watch, until they saw the video with the grenade, and the boys speaking of eye injuries.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>Possibilities for what happened to this family: the boys wandered until other fighters who already had their mother took them captive, and they all headed for Gaza across backroads and fields, were blasted by an IDF helicopter, and left as charcoal in a field, perhaps identified later. They could have gotten pinned down in a house later flattened by IDF tank fire. They might have been safely taken to Gaza, and then: still held there, returned home, or killed there, perhaps in IDF strikes. Or of course they could have been murdered by Hamas back at the Kibbutz, as the IDF would prefer to argue. But it seems they couldn't find any video of that.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>4B2) Attempted beheading with a hoe</b></div><div>Public: Yes. Hamas-Massacre.net: "Hamas terrorists arguing who gets to butcher an innocent Thai worker" Confino: "Hamas terrorist screaming [Allah Akhbar] as he frantically tries to behead a dead man with a shovel." - Shmuley: "a Thai worker who was beheaded with a pick-axe" - Reyes: "brutally beheaded using a shovel" - Eglash: "he relentlessly hacks the head off a Thai laborer with a hatchet" - Jones: "an unsuccessful effort to behead a dying Thai worker with a garden implement." Aroor: "a construction hoe." Aroor: "The attack does not decapitate the man, though it is clearly enough to kill him." Armas: "another one shows them crushing a dying man’s head with a hoe while shouting “Allahu Akbar”" Is "Thai worker" a guess, or does someone have these details? </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2lhGN7BwC7HqqE5Dh8LPV1JHnAxLqJmGpk00SkBoUJUfHyP8Tvd8Vil9yMKzIh6OC6ePcdgZRPFgpuEAhpq7OEFmTLmc4HUgNL6ZyNfRz58TFA6ZKm9tPSqcpaM8LNJXHU-ixRfZ0OABthO8Fl7NgzPv_4z4B8TENVOjjSnmrqzk0f4Ri2K3lee_B7PjB/s1073/Screenshot%20(5169).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1073" data-original-width="694" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2lhGN7BwC7HqqE5Dh8LPV1JHnAxLqJmGpk00SkBoUJUfHyP8Tvd8Vil9yMKzIh6OC6ePcdgZRPFgpuEAhpq7OEFmTLmc4HUgNL6ZyNfRz58TFA6ZKm9tPSqcpaM8LNJXHU-ixRfZ0OABthO8Fl7NgzPv_4z4B8TENVOjjSnmrqzk0f4Ri2K3lee_B7PjB/s320/Screenshot%20(5169).png" width="207" /></a></div>The video is bizarre. The victim is laying down, already injured, yellow shirt with apparent Hebrew lettering soaked with blood. He's moving his arms in weak defense as he's beaten until a moment after a kick to the head as the attacker asks for a knife. The victim then stops moving, as if playing dead. One assailant declares he will behead this Jew, and swings a larger sized hoe down into the man's neck, causing his body to jerk, with arms up awkwardly. He drops the hoe, and the other assailant takes over, misses the victim's neck a few times, hitting the concrete floor. Then he connects a few times, unclear if with the neck, chin, or what - causing the victim to jerk weakly each time. His head never comes off, and if any blood comes out at all, it's not visible at this angle. </div><div><br /></div><div>Do they crush his head or try to cut it off? Not clear. There's no good reason to call this an attempted beheading, unless you happened to be scraping around for evidence of beheadings, because you were already spreading stories about it.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzPkI63iXtU6Fkt6bnQQO4kf3uGkRkwCejVbLgRFNXVLGaSCRFvBhbaU-p5KXl3lhWqcz4xtcBCNG3dXWb96bjPooUdudRr8Jy63uRyn7vHUkhziIysf9qbHM2mHa5IDLJ0DMbVURVrmRiacq73AwjLqFYTmWE-sPkH9VpUxt-eMoQIil5TBJvgpk6JZoN/s981/Screenshot%20(5133).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="981" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzPkI63iXtU6Fkt6bnQQO4kf3uGkRkwCejVbLgRFNXVLGaSCRFvBhbaU-p5KXl3lhWqcz4xtcBCNG3dXWb96bjPooUdudRr8Jy63uRyn7vHUkhziIysf9qbHM2mHa5IDLJ0DMbVURVrmRiacq73AwjLqFYTmWE-sPkH9VpUxt-eMoQIil5TBJvgpk6JZoN/s320/Screenshot%20(5133).png" width="320" /></a></div>The video is described as showing "Palestinian civilians" - not Hamas fighters. The one seen better is in civilian clothing. The video's authenticity is unclear, but presumably it is part of the day's events, when many Palestinian civilians also crossed over and engaged in looting, at least. The attacker's face is seen. Someone knows who that is. </div><div><br /></div><div>So anyway - some apparent Hamas <i>civilian followers</i> are seen on video perhaps <i>trying</i> to behead one man. This is the closest Israel could find for Hamas actually seen beheading anyone (that's still alive), child or adult, civilian or military, Israeli or foreign. Zero actual examples are shown, perhaps because none exist.</div><div><p><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh6H_2I1z91vel_Trxr6CiqNfR4DL1xEm2b5Mx8meTySD1r_KNtaRmXj32b0zuaN1YPYY5gbHnS54Z9jGNTiTWHkBn2YF5PZWW90xPzqHU_bLMPWuytvu1zj1BEzw0-7SJZnyyxMvk21wN35NE-1JycVkbTj78fdTvSfOlnJQweeGnflP-QWeVhlDp2fUG/s843/Screenshot%20(5163).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="843" data-original-width="406" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh6H_2I1z91vel_Trxr6CiqNfR4DL1xEm2b5Mx8meTySD1r_KNtaRmXj32b0zuaN1YPYY5gbHnS54Z9jGNTiTWHkBn2YF5PZWW90xPzqHU_bLMPWuytvu1zj1BEzw0-7SJZnyyxMvk21wN35NE-1JycVkbTj78fdTvSfOlnJQweeGnflP-QWeVhlDp2fUG/s320/Screenshot%20(5163).png" width="154" /></a></b></div><b>4B3) Shooting into a roomful of bodies</b></div><div>Public: Yes. This scene is not clearly mentioned by most, but it's included. Aroor: "The next clip is mobile footage taken by a Hamas terrorist inside a house. Chanting 'Allahu Akbar', he opens a room door revealing blood spattered on the floor and four bodies piled up." Gutman might describe it: "In another house, a gunman sticks the muzzle of his rifle into a room inhabited by a family. " That probably describes a scene I wondered about. Hamas-Massacre.net just had a still (at right - from a livestream with scrolling text and emojis seeming to approve). It's just now updated with 2 videos. Bloody dead people in a room, at least 6, possibly Thai workers or the like, partly from the cot in the dorm-like room. All are apparently young adult males, presumably shot to death, but with a likely blade wound above one's elbow, and maybe a sliced throat - but that victim (center) is alive, moves his left arm, and is then shot several times. In the other video, he's dead, rolled over.<p></p><p>The videos' authenticity is uncertain and the details unclear, but I'll assume this is what it seems - a mass killing of some men by Hamas terrorists on October 7. In other cases, this mainly happens with people who try to hide instead of surrender, and grenades are often involved. But here we don't see much sign of shrapnel, and some possible blade injuries instead. Again, the worst brutality against civilians that we can see, by Hamas and/or Palestinian civilians, is apparently against foreign workers and not Israelis. This may have been a special policy with political reasons. But in the end, several foreign workers were abducted instead of killed, so it wasn't a universal kill order. </p><div><b>4B4) Hiding person shot</b></div><div>Public (AFAIK): No. Confino: "Hamas terrorists enter a house, where a small girl is seen hiding under the table. After some talking back and forth they shoot and kill her as she hides under the table. Hard to say how old she is but looks like 7-9 years old." Armas: "one video shows them murdering a young woman who is hiding under a table and begging not to be killed," Aroor: "One of the home’s occupants is clearly under the table, though it isn’t clear if he/she is alive or shot earlier. The terrorists chant Allahu Akbar and fire into the table. One of the terrorists is holding an American M4A1 carbine." Kern mentions how the room is dark and flashlights are used, but he thinks it's a woman hiding under a table and she's been shot already before they shoot her again.</div><div> </div><div>Jones: someone claims they saw "footage of Hamas terrorist screaming at a young girl of around 10 years old, she was hiding under a cupboard or perhaps a table and they shot her." Jones didn't recall this, and asked 2 others who didn't recall it either, and they were assured they wouldn't see any children being killed. But Jones did see a noisy, chaotic scene where "someone hides ... and is found and it's not clear how old they were or whether they died." Well, clearly that's the scene they meant. But clearly, the victim's age, gender, and living status before and after are all unclear.</div><div><div><p><b>4B5) Unarmed female soldiers killed</b></p><p>Public: No, or perhaps - I'm not sure if this is the same scene described and shown here, from the Hamas point of view: <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hamas-gunmen-shoot-dead-female-israeli-soldiers-hiding-under-table-in-sickening-clip/ar-AA1iiKWh">Hamas gunmen shoot dead female Israeli soldiers hiding under table in sickening clip (msn.com)</a>. Unarmed soldiers are supposed to be taken prisoner, not executed, according to the rules of war. Aroor: "The next clip is mobile footage filmed by a group of women IDF soldiers inside a room. The sound of rifle fire can be heard nearby as the women speak to each other in panicked whimpers. They huddle together. The screen cuts to black." Gutman: "Then, at one point, the girl shooting the selfie video sees an armed man on the far side of the shelter. She asks, "Who is that man?" He's a Hamas fighter, calmly standing there. Then the video ends." Jones and others relate the video showing the man opening fire, but those 2 have the scene ending before that. Maybe different edits have been used. Hamas did execute soldiers, besides taking many captive. These probably went the same. There's no mention of the women being raped. Just killed.</p><p><b>4B6) Hiding partygoers hit with a grenade</b> </p><p>Public: No, or perhaps. in a "container" or a shelter: I've seen similar scenes, perhaps the same one, as seen from inside shelters and inside a trash bin, and from outside shelters on Hamas bodycam. They fire in and hurl grenades. People inside have missing limbs and terrified. I have no doubt this horrible scene really occurred a few times over. I can't vouch for all of the details Matt Gutman relates from the grenade detonation forward, apparently involving edits between different views and maybe different incidents, but I'll pass them on: </p><p></p><blockquote>"The camera shows a flash of limbs, some dismembered, some still attached to writhing, screaming bodies. A selfie camera shows a young man weeping, while someone croaks hoarsely in the background, "help, help." Hamas then drags survivors out, some by their hair, to trucks, and then batters them some more in the backs of the pickups on the way to Gaza."</blockquote><p></p></div><p><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiExS1GbqC93_kU7qM09y-Zj4hVeeNK05hJizNxveWimeDp5j3p8rb7Z0kxL-iMMKwGNoeRQ8Fua2rVO9mBn0a17CDb23MvgSggU9SlYmcgLst52tJIshSATDs8Lph2BgDblypOgLyL7UrbjPQyfxuGJPCX2iTBnAlF4pnJ7n0jHn_0omgUPl-eji7YMDL7/s1198/Screenshot%20(5154).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="685" data-original-width="1198" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiExS1GbqC93_kU7qM09y-Zj4hVeeNK05hJizNxveWimeDp5j3p8rb7Z0kxL-iMMKwGNoeRQ8Fua2rVO9mBn0a17CDb23MvgSggU9SlYmcgLst52tJIshSATDs8Lph2BgDblypOgLyL7UrbjPQyfxuGJPCX2iTBnAlF4pnJ7n0jHn_0omgUPl-eji7YMDL7/s320/Screenshot%20(5154).png" width="320" /></a></b></div><b>4B7) Beheaded soldier, already dead </b><p></p><p>Public: Unclear. There's a photo at Hamas.com but not Hamas-Massacre.net of a "beheaded soldier" - injured around the corner, dragged here, executed with a gunshot to the back of the head, gaping exit wound visible on his still-attached forehead (here, just in case), likely the same head wound seen up-close in another image right above that. But it's likely they refer to a different scene where the actual cutting is seen. Shmuley: "a soldier that was beheaded in front of our eyes" - Jones too spoke as if he saw enough of the cutting that he had to look away. If so, that's body mutilation on top of executing a captive soldier. That's not legal. But it's also not the same as cutting the head off of a living man, let alone infant or toddler.</p><p>Add 12/5: they referred to a different soldier, but one just off-frame from this one. And it was postmortem body mutilation, not an execution. <a href="https://twitter.com/Val85960950/status/1731836446229594311">Val on X</a> has the before view and <a href="https://twitter.com/Val85960950/status/1731785804014329929">some after views</a>, and he might have the beheading video in between but it probably wouldn't be allowed and I don't need to see it. I've seen it before on dead and living people and know it's terrible.</p><p><b>4B8, 9) Dead soldier body stomped on, a very friendly but not too bright dog shot dead</b> </p><p>Public: Yes to both. As with the above, no contest. I've seen the footage around. People in Gaza hate Israeli soldiers, and one of the Hamas terrorists just didn't care and shot that poor dog.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">4C) Some After-the-Fact Images</span></b></p><p>Other footage included in Bearing Witness relates various attacks on homes, arrests, celebrations (FWIW from people planning to die themselves), and some of the aftermath. This is where viewers were allowed to see indications of rape and children that had been killed, maybe even beheaded. The actions aren't seen, but imagination is encouraged. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi88GzVcZOuHeKGnmynYklQ5qI77xpNHGAoQoW-u2A6m657vdmWh9n22Qw2YmxpysUg_U8lxk88h96qV5LTCN3BHJsx9iOk8X0EV6I4tcIYu09UVT467tDFjnGQnqUQN7WO2yID4dRWzzcEXGQtzT1jHuYKflEW16P7oqu6e-fCXirCcFNrTpxLVd2YJpDm/s1080/10-7_infant.webp" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="692" data-original-width="1080" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi88GzVcZOuHeKGnmynYklQ5qI77xpNHGAoQoW-u2A6m657vdmWh9n22Qw2YmxpysUg_U8lxk88h96qV5LTCN3BHJsx9iOk8X0EV6I4tcIYu09UVT467tDFjnGQnqUQN7WO2yID4dRWzzcEXGQtzT1jHuYKflEW16P7oqu6e-fCXirCcFNrTpxLVd2YJpDm/s320/10-7_infant.webp" width="320" /></a></div>Aroor: "The next picture is a still image. It’s a picture of an infant in diapers with three gunshot wounds, including one in the head. It’s an unblurred version of the same image that the Israeli Foreign Ministry released days after the October 7 attack in the wake of the ‘beheaded babies’ report from Kibbutz Kfar Aza." Blurred version at Hamas-Massacre. No included video shows a Hamas fighter shooting the baby. The injuries could be from crossfire for all we know. 3 bullets in the same baby's head must be very small caliber, likely overkill, and maybe just shrapnel. No wounds to the rest of the body are visible, but the blood pattern suggests there may be more wounds to the invisible back side, and the head wounds seem to be more on the back. It could from an IDF tank shell, for all we know, but even more likely from a grenade Hamas tossed into someone's shelter, or from a door they blasted open trying to get at more people to kidnap. A brutish operation like this is bound to kill people including babies, even if they weren't specifically gunning for them.<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-iZft706rdSF7CEC1SN0_SONOl-4LEsTLKvl8UIZCyWnzGo-A9WobMmbBy0PHh6wBid1iYvvdFCQPwUjOSuVvL27IAfiUFKN54JoDgh-GXdkp7AHlp3IxuBsH0Qk4f2IpV6x_OyCRUOZ2WDg8r88AyoHRMZNuH6BXzPGIk5dUbiv_6_o8_81cSLuGnV7Q/s475/Screenshot%20(5115)b.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="475" data-original-width="413" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-iZft706rdSF7CEC1SN0_SONOl-4LEsTLKvl8UIZCyWnzGo-A9WobMmbBy0PHh6wBid1iYvvdFCQPwUjOSuVvL27IAfiUFKN54JoDgh-GXdkp7AHlp3IxuBsH0Qk4f2IpV6x_OyCRUOZ2WDg8r88AyoHRMZNuH6BXzPGIk5dUbiv_6_o8_81cSLuGnV7Q/w174-h200/Screenshot%20(5115)b.png" width="174" /></a></div>Aroor, continued: "a completely charred infant, <b>the head of either an infant or a toddler,</b> more charred infants..." These views may all be public, or anyway similar ones are. Homes were set ablaze by Hamas to smoke people out of their shelters, and other houses collapsed and burned around terrorists and hostages alike following IDF rifle and tank fire. The charred head is specific enough to say I've probably seen it, at <a href="https://www.hamas-massacre.net/categories/families-murdered-in-their-homes">Families Murdered in Their Homes | Hamas Massacre (hamas-massacre.net)</a> There's a short video of "An Israeli baby that was beheaded and burned." A small head with no body is shown, lightly charred and apparently mangled, likely suffering from decay as well. A charred knife is leadingly set next to the head, but it was probably blown off in a blast that mangled it and also destroyed the child's whole upper body. <p></p><p>Another "beheaded and burned" example is set next to that at the website (but not included in the film that I can tell). This one is an adult in bad decay (just too gross to show here), with head and body both present, but with most of the shoulders and neck blasted away. The head is still connected by some skin in the front. That's not a beheading, but more like an RPG hit between the upper shoulder blades. </p><p></p><p>Just a hack opinion, you say? "On Oct. 20, 2023, forensic experts told reporters they had seen evidence of beheaded babies but could not confirm if knives or rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) caused the decapitations." This study was done at the Israeli government's request, to bolster its case for war. Perhaps these experts could say what caused these deaths, but chose not to, out of deference to Israel and its important propaganda effort. Beheading with blades could be left at "possible," another Hamas-grade weapon at "possible," and any IDF-specific weapon at "not even considered." <a href="https://themedialine.org/top-stories/evidence-on-display-at-israels-forensic-pathology-center-confirms-hamas-atrocities/">https://themedialine.org/top-stories/evidence-on-display-at-israels-forensic-pathology-center-confirms-hamas-atrocities/</a></p><div><b>Rape Suggested: No Panties</b></div><div>Several accounts mention a scene of a woman's partly charred and mutilated body being inspected, dress pulled up, no panties, legs spread, presumably raped. Keller-Lynn: "In another clip, from after the assault, an Israeli woman is seen trying to work out if a partially burned woman’s corpse, with a mutilated head, is that of a family member. The dead woman’s dress is pulled up to her waist and her underpants have been removed." Owen Jones describes it the same, but notes while it counts as evidence for rape, it's not conclusive proof of it. <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12815869/ANDREW-NEIL-moral-universe-hard-Lefts-poster-boy-justify-watching-Hamas-massacre-video-sowing-seeds-doubt-horrors.html">Andrew Neil responded</a>, incredulous: "That just because we see a young woman's burnt corpse with no underwear and a pool of blood, it doesn't mean she was raped?" No, it doesn't. It seriously does not. </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8h4yDLqWzyc6Or8d7onzWv1636S3-60LzVl6CoA3bG200o7dw03O-qmpTkv9aZBYZv_1qdSp1rNZ5je4LCWFfsa-zqV6CO1Qd8qs7OV_WOocNtdic6iuRbbcB_y6rEDkjT4odrjGcPMqaNuuAbsoTFror3I-tM1GzJgkgaZiMDFt8_CFDL0Jr8hdHNFG0/s890/10-7_rape_road.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="890" data-original-width="520" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8h4yDLqWzyc6Or8d7onzWv1636S3-60LzVl6CoA3bG200o7dw03O-qmpTkv9aZBYZv_1qdSp1rNZ5je4LCWFfsa-zqV6CO1Qd8qs7OV_WOocNtdic6iuRbbcB_y6rEDkjT4odrjGcPMqaNuuAbsoTFror3I-tM1GzJgkgaZiMDFt8_CFDL0Jr8hdHNFG0/s320/10-7_rape_road.png" width="187" /></a></div>No one mentions how her right arm is frozen up in the air as if in defense from an attacker. It might have been appealing, but they might have realized that makes no sense. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/11/gunning-down-partygoers.html">As related in part 3</a>, <b>this woman is not a rape victim burned alive, as advertised. She was only posed that way many hours after death from a head injury, likely from an Israeli Apache helicopter. </b>Having examined the video shared at Hamas-Massacre.net, I argued that a 30mm exploding shell grazed her leg before hitting the ground, detonating there and blasting off the back of her head. </div><div><br /></div><div>That may not be the case, but either way, she died from the visible head wound, fell face-down with right elbow up and palm on the ground. Her body stayed that way for at least 8 hours for full rigor mortis to form. Only then did someone roll her body over into the position we see. It was only then she was posed as if raped and likely had her panties removed, by some sick person - presumably Israeli - who then partly burned her upper body to suggest "burning alive" as well. I propose this evidence actually shows some depraved war propaganda played out on the bodies of those killed, in part, by the IDF's own response. </div><div><p><b>Rape Suggested: Panties Half-On</b></p><p>If Jotam Confino describes the above scene at all, it's mixed into <a href="https://twitter.com/mrconfino/status/1724385046583234841">this recall</a> of two apparently raped women he saw in the film: "Two dead women lying on the grass at musical festival - both with no pants on. One has her panties taken half off. The other doesn’t appear to have any on at all." It sounds like that's all in a single image, but no such image is mentioned by anyone else. </p><p>The one above is not visibly on grass, and in fact in the dirt on the side of the road, only seen in nighttime views, with no second body visible. No one else I've seen mentions the other woman Confino saw, but Rabbi Shmuley recalls: "<b>women</b> raped, legs open, bodies mutilated" (features of one case, but attached to plural "women"). Rachel Johnson likewise recalled seeing "the <b>women with no underwear</b>, with splayed legs and livid bruises to their necks and faces set in rictuses" seemed to her like "conclusive evidence of rape." FWIW, Aroor's "complete" description somehow omits both scenes.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigpXu3NyuOubSFl4_zmsAEcIpH85zJqMCszS1IPvmXyuFbvaA_lBxvH9-it5_ft2Ck0emmojj9qmvxQiBI6GhJRDvSzpOykMMgmbyJR-DOWlKu0UEM5omm6cFVvXs5zUa3QUeKjV_jktEs0ReGzBMU7s6XxTRwQa0R4sG25M1LltP8jYFLgGmtCo299Amf/s684/10-7_rape_fake.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="610" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigpXu3NyuOubSFl4_zmsAEcIpH85zJqMCszS1IPvmXyuFbvaA_lBxvH9-it5_ft2Ck0emmojj9qmvxQiBI6GhJRDvSzpOykMMgmbyJR-DOWlKu0UEM5omm6cFVvXs5zUa3QUeKjV_jktEs0ReGzBMU7s6XxTRwQa0R4sG25M1LltP8jYFLgGmtCo299Amf/s320/10-7_rape_fake.png" width="285" /></a></div>Confino is likely mixing 2 scenes, one - shown at right - with grass and 2 bodies visible in bright daylight, just one body disrobed as described, and both outfits seeming kind of military in color. This was once posted the Nova party page at Hamas-Massacre.net which - according to Blumenthal - is run by Israeli foreign ministry (he links there and says "The Israeli Foreign Ministry has published the fake photo here"). At right is a cropped screenshot as it appeared. Confino likely saw this same image and confused the other scene as showing the second body on the grass here, but seen closer in a nighttime view. </div><div><p></p><p>This was presented as a Nova party attendee "raped and killed" by Hamas, but was quickly exposed by <a href="https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1724688009293873502">Max Blumenthal on X</a> as an irrelevant, recycled image. Months earlier, in May, 2023 a Japanese website showed this image as "beautiful Kurdish soldiers killed on the battlefield," likely by ISIS, probably in Syria. I didn't try to dig further. Another, now-deleted post <a href="https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1724691554634203614">that Blumenthal found</a> showed the same image back in March, 2022. </p><p>It was not from Israel in October 2023, but it got included among images of the day. How does a mix-up like that happen? Does it suggest a shortage of genuine visual evidence for Hamas rape? </p><p>The image was thereafter deleted from the Hamas-Massacre site, allowing people to imagine it was never there and that Max created that screenshot. But this can be checked, and anyway <b>there's Mr. Confino apparently describing the same image as included in Israel's official documentary film "Bearing Witness," as shown to hundreds of influencers. </b>Owen Jones and others mentioned the above case, but no second example. Jones and others saw the film after this fake image was exposed and then deleted from Hamas-Massacre.net. Was it deleted from the film as well by this time?</p><p>Confino added to his recall of the two rape victims: "And for those wondering why police aren’t releasing graphic video and photo documentation to the entire world; out of respect for the victims. It’s an ongoing investigation. Releasing evidence in cases like this to the public is not custom anyhow." But per the description, it seems that someone <i>did </i>release both images to shock the public with. One was fake, and the other one, as explained above, suggests an even sicker manipulation.</p><p><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfXOQYlglxBJ17sFRM3Dzf7BsSnU71s6Lo4lhE0Rb5uUS31PnRCXg2BAyot50NQxwCvGLYQDsC9j3kdDJRwwd4gZtktxkOPGOxVjzqGe0VefxFX8sXbA6P86ubK-EoOqN17Nat3Dbk9dBdNvXzHU5RTf8Jjop_WDegAbYjQzT3PYpU51s59cmm5yzDB4tl/s1006/10-7_rape_pants.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1006" data-original-width="495" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfXOQYlglxBJ17sFRM3Dzf7BsSnU71s6Lo4lhE0Rb5uUS31PnRCXg2BAyot50NQxwCvGLYQDsC9j3kdDJRwwd4gZtktxkOPGOxVjzqGe0VefxFX8sXbA6P86ubK-EoOqN17Nat3Dbk9dBdNvXzHU5RTf8Jjop_WDegAbYjQzT3PYpU51s59cmm5yzDB4tl/s320/10-7_rape_pants.png" width="157" /></a></b></div><b>Rape Suggested: Bloody Pants </b><p></p><p>Public: Yes, around since about day 2. <a href="https://twitter.com/leekern13/status/1725796238904217968">Lee Kern noted</a> the scene of a barefoot girl, blood on her pants, pulled from the back of an SUV and moved to the back seat. Aroor: "Next is a clip that Hamas had posted on social media soon after the attack, showing terrorists dragging a woman (her hands bound, face bloodied) out of the boot of a jeep and pushing her into the back seat. This appears to be in Gaza. A small crowd forms chanting 'Allahu Akbar', while two men stand with their middle fingers raised akimbo."</p><p>I notice injuries to her ankle and elbow, at least. I'd say she was shackled at the ankle to something, then somehow suspended from that, or perhaps fell out of the truck and was dragged for a bit, tearing up her elbow as well - the internal bleeding might be somehow related to that, or from a previous or subsequent rape, or some other injury like a gunshot during her capture, or in a wreck caused by IDF fire on her captors, or perhaps just menstrual blood after her tampon fell out (I'm no expert - maybe that cannot explain it). It takes some imagination to assume this proves rape any better than the other images.</p></div><p></p></div></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">4D) Review: Bearing Witness to mixed evils </span></b></p><p>Review of select recorded crimes and after-the-fact images: </p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNiwm6bWEyRTqe_Ee4aj6zs_unD9WVcnFDs_iTiuCjtYYLhq_I9Wi6KxUrDMghXBOKltqoFx1PBMGQ-44sOZ3b7l6r3BXiInV168kPah18FVW7DNf77t78Ga3zCCz4Pc6WKnQRj0QzeRdaxsmrYpPwtiHcV25XdQvDIdZa6TRnqVxyQiZ3h3wpCoMb6Gy0/s1171/Screenshot%20(5171).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="858" data-original-width="1171" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNiwm6bWEyRTqe_Ee4aj6zs_unD9WVcnFDs_iTiuCjtYYLhq_I9Wi6KxUrDMghXBOKltqoFx1PBMGQ-44sOZ3b7l6r3BXiInV168kPah18FVW7DNf77t78Ga3zCCz4Pc6WKnQRj0QzeRdaxsmrYpPwtiHcV25XdQvDIdZa6TRnqVxyQiZ3h3wpCoMb6Gy0/w640-h468/Screenshot%20(5171).png" width="640" /></a><br /><div><br /></div><div>Bearing Witness seems to clearly document Hamas fighters executing unarmed or captive Israeli soldiers and killing civilians in cars and homes (especially but not exclusively if they tried to hide or flee). By Hamas or Palestinian civilians who crossed behind them, extra brutality was visited on foreign workers. They cruel kidnapping terrified civilians including children, and engaged in looting, wanton vandalism, and whatever else that went unseen. And some undesirable aspects of Palestinian society were also displayed or suggested along the way (taking joy in mutilating corpses, etc.), and were made costars alongside dead women and babies and the ISIS flag.</div><div><br /></div><div>As Jones noted, no firm evidence has been provided for beheading of living people, execution of children, rape, or torture. The implicit suggestion - not a certainty - is that these things never happened, and the corollary of that is the stories of such crimes were invented. In fact ... An unrelated image from another country in another year was seemingly recycled to illustrate rape, and some presented video suggests a woman's body was manipulated by some Israeli(s) to suggest rape and "burning alive." After Israel showed video of a grenade injuring a boy's eye, as if that wasn't criminal enough, they added that while they have no further info on the boy's fate, they do know Hamas actually stabbed the boy's eye out. Even when they have video, the unsupported horror story needs to prevail. </div><div><br /></div><div>And under the surface of all this lies the massive ambiguity about who really killed whom. The staged rape victim might well have been killed by IDF helicopter. A "beheaded baby" and charred pieces of others are probably not caused by Hamas using any weapon, when some 200 of their fighters were in the same charred bits right next to them, in homes blasted by Israeli tanks and in cars apparently hit by their helicopter fire. </div><div> </div><div><i>Bearing Witness</i> has become a key part of Israel's war propaganda, designed to replace the Human reality of events with a narrative of pure good vs. pure evil. It seems intent on instilling such a hatred of Hamas it bleeds over to all Palestinians and can fuel what may be a pre-planned genocide for the sake of "Greater Israel." If the full truth behind all the images was really known, it's likely that the film would implicate the IDF even deeper than Hamas for grave war crimes on October 7-9. The full truth is not known, so we can only say the film documents mixed evils resulting from a deeply toxic climate, and that it helps to deepen that toxicity. </div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-12203655420579551972023-11-30T13:09:00.000-08:002023-12-03T06:52:03.605-08:00Gunning down Partygoers?<p><b>October 7 Massacre in Israel, part 3: </b><b>Gunning down Partygoers?</b></p><p><b>November 30, 2023</b></p><p><b>update 12/3</b></p><p><b><a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/11/who-was-behind-kibbutz-massacres.html">< Part 2: Who was Behind the Kibbutz Massacres?</a></b></p><p><b>3A) Mistaken Identity and Partygoers</b></p><p><a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2023/10/27/israels-military-shelled-burning-tanks-helicopters/">Max Blumenthal's article</a> gives some examples of fatal or nearly-fatal mistaken identity in the IDF response to the October 7 attacks. </p><p></p><blockquote>"Adi Ohana was shot dead by Israeli police near his home after being mistaken for a Palestinian guerrilla. “An innocent man was killed in the most negligent way possible,” his niece complained. Israeli media is now filling up with reports of the military gunning down fellow Israelis, even as they were defending their homes from Palestinian gunmen."</blockquote><p></p><p>A lot of other people were in a worse position. Hundreds were there for the Nova electronic music festival, nowhere near their homes, and were left running about in the area and trying to drive away. To the IDF, they might look like terrorists running around, maybe headed to kill civilians, or trying to escape a crime scene. </p><p>Some partygoers came close to being killed by the IDF, but survived to explain how those weren't Hamas bullets. Others would be less fortunate, leaving us less informed.</p><p></p><blockquote><p>Israeli security forces also opened fire on fleeing Israelis whom they mistook for Hamas gunmen. A resident of Ashkelon named Danielle Rachiel described nearly being killed after escaping from the Nova music festival when it was attacked by militants from Gaza. “As we reached the roundabout [at a kibbutz], we saw Israeli security forces!” Rachiel recalled. “We held our heads down [because] we automatically knew they’d be suspicious of us, in a small beat-up car… from the same direction the terrorists were coming from. Our forces began shooting at us!”</p><p>“When our forces fired at us, our windows shattered,” she continued. It was only when they shouted in Hebrew, “We’re Israelis!” that the shooting stopped, and they were taken to safety.</p></blockquote><p>Initially, 260 people were reported killed at the rave. I did a manual count of entries at Ha'aretz where 327 were specified, noting that others likely were, by appearance or listing between attendees, and just didn't have it specified. Soon, an updated count of 364 confirmed deaths was published, and it may be even more. </p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc5iG3DX7ho">I Watched The Hamas Massacre Film. Here Are My Thoughts. - YouTube</a></p><p>some fighters want to save ammo for soldiers, spare on person when they decide he's not a soldier</p><p>I wouldn't deny that Hamas fighters killed quite a few partygoers. Some were shot dead with rifles in their cars. There are several cases on video of Hamas shooting and tossing grenades at young people hiding in bomb shelters. Even if the plan was to take captives and not to wantonly kill, some killing was surely allowed and committed, at least to prevent escapes and encourage surrenders, and maybe just to kill whoever they couldn't nab, or to kill as many as possible. </p><p>Still, for all their efforts, Hamas didn't get many captives here: According to October7map.com, 364 partygoers were killed and just 27+ Kidnapped, 2 of them safely returned as of 11/27. This is like one of the kibbutz attacks (see part 2) where they mainly killed rather than kidnapping - those cases seemed to involve battles with the IDF sometimes ending with massive Israeli tank fire that causes many of the deaths. Is it the same here, but even worse? </p><p>If there were an element of an expanded "Hannibal directive" at play here - to kill Israeli civilians rather than let them be taken captive ... vs. in the kibbutzim ... pure accident is also more likely to play a role, including the role of blanket excuse for a "mass Hannibal" of Israeli youth.</p><p><b>3B) Apache Attack</b></p><p>The problem of mistaken identity was no better, and the possibility of mass carnage much greater, when the guns were heavier and operating from Apache helicopters. For now I'm not sure about details like how many helicopters were used, where from and when they arrived, if they were duly informed of the rave, etc. But if there were a "Hannibal" option at play, to make it seem accidental, you might tell the pilots about thousands of terrorists, fail to tell them about the rave, then send them to that area to decide "there's our thousands of terrorists. Open fire!"</p><p>As I gather, the Apache mainly employs "Hellfire" and/or "Hydra 70" missiles, and a chain gun cannon that rapid-fires 30mm rounds like huge, explosive bullets. That's deadly stuff when paired with air supremacy over unprotected civilians in the desert, with no cover past their explosive cars. And just as everyone looks suspicious on security camera, whoever tried to flee might have looked like a target. </p><p>Max Blumenthal's piece cites Israeli reports: “The Apache pilots testify that they fired a huge amount of munitions, emptied the ‘belly of the helicopter’ in minutes, flew to re-arm and returned to the air, again and again. But it didn’t help and they understand it."</p><p></p><blockquote><p>The Apache helicopters appear to have focused on vehicles streaming back into Gaza from the Nova electronic music festival and nearby kibbutzes, attacked cars with apparent knowledge that Israeli captives could be inside. They also fired on unarmed people exiting cars or walking on foot through the fields on the periphery of Gaza.</p><p>A report on the Apache squadrons by the Israeli outlet Yedioth Aharanoth noted that “the pilots realized that there was tremendous difficulty in distinguishing within the occupied outposts and settlements who was a terrorist and who was a soldier or civilian… The rate of fire against the thousands of terrorists was tremendous at first, and only at a certain point did the pilots begin to slow down the attacks and carefully select the targets.”</p></blockquote><p>From where I sit, it's difficult to say how many people Hamas just killed vs. tried to kidnap, only to have Israeli forces blow them off the road. My hunch is the latter category is the much larger one, that the Israelis killed hundreds of their own people just among the rave-goers. </p><p>The IDF would later release video of hundreds of destroyed vehicles said to originate at the rave, and probably all but a few of them did. Some 40% of them (visual estimate) are burnt-out and partly melted, with many all but flattened by some powerful blasts from above. Some or all of this was potentially done by Hamas, say with mortars, although it would be hard to hit a moving car with one. And some or all damage could be from the Apache attack, that would have a better chance of hitting the target.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-WTsddIXUSxU5qacH4G-rKcM-PvLdIpkpHch10JPfTUFb6r5WudCdszg_VmV5uK0WLwtjtL0ev2DjuCGkSuAN78yJsQA8VHxLmUMHBJAECf_muApnjrJfaEGlARURR2g4vgrlgybhXj4xZt055oouaoW5tRoxk4Le96FBgenuuQWaBBaD3tILoIVaEous/s1902/Screenshot%20(5100).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="531" data-original-width="1902" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-WTsddIXUSxU5qacH4G-rKcM-PvLdIpkpHch10JPfTUFb6r5WudCdszg_VmV5uK0WLwtjtL0ev2DjuCGkSuAN78yJsQA8VHxLmUMHBJAECf_muApnjrJfaEGlARURR2g4vgrlgybhXj4xZt055oouaoW5tRoxk4Le96FBgenuuQWaBBaD3tILoIVaEous/w640-h178/Screenshot%20(5100).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Possibly worthwhile OSINT task: examine car damage seen up-close, looking for 30mm holes, etc. I still haven't ... </p><p>Blumenthal:</p><blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH50_Yd-7MGd0eLfEOFzVmtZ-CnYAf9XuxUl8avAWrU621CHdMFklhxzuaDQzEaYxT7ZGfTwNPhZraHu0zkYyidIuvQGeqGqmArzLTLLQ8Z1zrj5FvY2W1FT0F15X7CYcQq4wBB7fCkjG1wj4mpUD2ATPxLd7peMqHTF3_NG1zfBHYQbU2xiVJgdPb7FPH/s1280/WAR-CRIMES-1.webp" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="960" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH50_Yd-7MGd0eLfEOFzVmtZ-CnYAf9XuxUl8avAWrU621CHdMFklhxzuaDQzEaYxT7ZGfTwNPhZraHu0zkYyidIuvQGeqGqmArzLTLLQ8Z1zrj5FvY2W1FT0F15X7CYcQq4wBB7fCkjG1wj4mpUD2ATPxLd7peMqHTF3_NG1zfBHYQbU2xiVJgdPb7FPH/w300-h400/WAR-CRIMES-1.webp" width="300" /></a></div>"Among the most gruesome videos of the aftermath of October 7, also published on the Telegram account of South Responders, shows a car full of charred corpses (below) at the entrance of Kibbutz Be’eri. The Israeli government has portrayed these casualties as Israeli victims of sadistic Hamas violence. However, the melted steel body and collapsed roof of the car, and the comprehensively scorched corpses inside, evidence a direct hit from a Hellfire missile."<p></p></blockquote><p></p><p>As with some of the cars above, the roof was blown in by a powerful blast from above. Two bodies in the front seats are just lumps of yellowish charcoal, and the 2 in the back seem blasted backwards. At least one serious chest wound from is visible on the left, looking more like shrapnel than a bullet. These could be captives, but their hands aren't bound. They could be Hamas fighters, Palestinian civilian looters, or rave-goers not yet captured who were just trying to escape.</p><p>The scene is promoted as "Israeli couple burned alive in a car," maybe with their drivers, killed somehow by Hamas terrorists - maybe each was stabbed to death in front of each others' eyes, then they were burned alive, and never mind how the car got damaged. </p><p>IDF Reserve pilot Col. Nof Erez doesn't seem to have direct, inside knowledge of the day's events, but when interviewed by Ha'aretz, he said "the Hannibal directive was probably deployed" for this hostage situation involving both civilians and military. But it was not the isolated kidnapping they had trained for; "What we saw here was a MASS HANNIBAL. There were many openings in the fence, thousands of people in many different vehicles, both with hostages and without hostages. It was an impossible mission to identify and to do what [the pilots] did." In such a chaotic situation, they would almost surely kill some hostages and perhaps even civilians fleeing from the terrorists. <a href="https://twitter.com/WarWatchs/status/1726671271017013494">https://twitter.com/WarWatchs/status/1726671271017013494</a></p><p><a href="https://electronicintifada.net/content/evidence-israel-killed-its-own-citizens-7-october/41156">Asa Winstanley, Electronic Intifada</a>: "In a video posted only one week after 7 October, Major Graeme said that Israeli detainees in Palestinian custody were “possibly killed by Israeli airstrikes when the Israeli Air Force attacked vehicles that were returning into Gaza.” ... Major Graeme explained that after the airstrikes “there was some bodies there that the special forces went and collected.” Winstanley noted "If accurate, this account suggests that Israel is trying to cover up evidence that – whether intentionally or otherwise – it killed its own civilians on 7 October."</p><p><b>3C) A Debunked Video?</b></p><p>A "leaked" video was said to show helicopters firing on fleeing partygoers, like reports had suggested. On November 13, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-does-video-show-israel-helicopter-shoot-festival-goers-1842754">Newsweek</a> found this false, deciding all civilians were killed by Hamas, and accepting the claims of the IDF - who had first <a href="https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1711386733047062987">published the video</a> (at the end) - that it shows attacks only on Hamas militants. <a href="https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1723022290886025424">GeoConfirmed on X</a> seem to have identified the spot - the border near Nahal Oz and Kfar Azza, a few kilometers north of the party. Thus it was probably "Hamas terrorists returning" to Gaza and had "no relation with the festival at all." </p><p>I don't think that's certain at all, or necessarily relevant either way. Even accepting the location. Hamas often returned to Gaza with civilian hostages, from the party or the raided kibbutzim. Nahal Oz and Kfar Aza were nearby. Captives from there or even further might be brough back this way, depending what re-crossings were available. And some partygoers might as well, especially if they had fled north only to be captured nearby.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjcK7a6BargLMaTHEW59jA204rHp1Vg709_FZrefu1Ct2DUgOV6_UM9VQazXuMdF4EM85svtpTIDu-yrgCuUecTDTSQdaWNjrJRKbm2I1nOB5nu9XuAomWGJimLn7mq9B9uQmIo5MqRM2vVjLyJxT0vEeCRQQPsKagPw5RDWPgyAe7cxZoYKZsJhbbQkIA/s960/Screenshot%20(5114).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="960" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjcK7a6BargLMaTHEW59jA204rHp1Vg709_FZrefu1Ct2DUgOV6_UM9VQazXuMdF4EM85svtpTIDu-yrgCuUecTDTSQdaWNjrJRKbm2I1nOB5nu9XuAomWGJimLn7mq9B9uQmIo5MqRM2vVjLyJxT0vEeCRQQPsKagPw5RDWPgyAe7cxZoYKZsJhbbQkIA/w400-h225/Screenshot%20(5114).png" width="400" /></a></div>In the longer of two close views, we can see at least six people, 5 running away, one crouching next to the car, when it's hit and explodes. The runners seem to continue, but might've been gunned down after the video cut. They seem to wear a mix of light and dark shirts, not military uniforms, although it could be a mix of civilian captives and Hamas captors all running from a common foe. It could also be Palestinian civilian looters. <div><br /></div><div>A second scene shows at least 4 people running from another car before it's hit, and other scenes show a driving car destroyed and people fleeing on foot being shot down. Most likely, some but not all of those killed were militants. <div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>3D) Kibbutz Hostages Under Apache Fire</b></div><div>As Max Blumenthal first noted <a href="https://www.rt.com/shows/going-underground/587500-israel-killing-its-own-civilians/">while appearing on Going Underground</a>, there was at least one witness account he found after that article of civilians killed by helicopter attack. He was kind of enough to share the link with me: <a href="https://www.october7.org/post/i-decided-to-play-dead-and-they-didn-t-take-me-they-ignored-me-they-took-the-three-little-girls">I thought this was my chance to escape, but I was wrong. They captured me. | October7 Blog</a> - see also here: </div><div><div><a href="https://www.jta.org/2023/10/16/israel/i-decided-to-play-dead-my-son-is-still-missing-a-survivors-account-from-kibbutz-nir-oz">https://www.jta.org/2023/10/16/israel/i-decided-to-play-dead-my-son-is-still-missing-a-survivors-account-from-kibbutz-nir-oz</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Witness: Neomit Dekel-Chen, 63, from Kibbutz Nir Oz. She tried to hide in her safe room until the terrorists smoked her out and then captured her. They and some hostages headed towards Gaza by the back fields, perhaps thinking - as the fighters in Be'eri did - that the IDF had the main roads closed off. Perhaps they did. It was around noon at the latest. "We walked for about 150 meters on the road toward Gaza, kidnappers, looters, and hostages, then Neomit and others - including her friend with "three little girls, two of them only 3 years old" - were carried in a cart pulled by "a tuk-tuk vehicle" (aka auto-rickshaw - a goofy little thing). </div><div><div><br /></div><div>"They continued to drive with us in the back, towards Gaza, when an IDF helicopter appeared above us. At some point the helicopter shot at the terrorists, the driver and the others. There was screaming in the tuk-tuk. All the terrorists were dead and<b> we were alive, except for one for one of the women with us. She had died in the arms of her daughter</b>, who had come to the kibbutz to visit and now would not leave her mother."</div><div><br /></div><div>That's one resident of Nir Oz - unnamed here - who will be listed as killed by Hamas, when really she was killed alongside them. This does sound accidental, however, as if they did a decent but imperfect job of just hitting the captors. The others might have suffered injuries, but it seems they were okay to run. Aside from the distraught daughter, they ran, with Neomit carrying one of the younger girls. They headed more "towards the fields" than towards Gaza. </div><div><br /></div><div>Then, perhaps due to the suspicious running, it seems<b> the helicopters attacked them, or something near them, a second time.</b> "We were 50 meters into the fields when I was hit with shrapnel in my head, knee and back. I was bleeding." She doesn't say if the anyone else in the group was injured.</div><div><br /></div><div>She poses this as lucky for her. More terrorists soon passed by, on her own tractor they had stolen. They took the others with them, but Neomit played dead. Because of the blood it worked, and they left her. She found water, and walked the fields as things quieted down. She managed to get back to the Kibbutz around 1:30 PM (it was in flames, and the army still hadn't arrived), and then to her daughter's house.</div><div><br /></div><div>So that's at least one woman injured and at least one woman killed in repeated helicopter attacks on "terrorists returning to Gaza," as they might have seemed to some gung-ho pilots eager to vaporize terrorists. Even more clearly than the "leaked" video, this had nothing to do with the rave. And yet it matters.</div><p><b>3E) "She was raped and burned alive"</b></p><p>Once again starting with Max Blumenthal at the Gray Zone, and seemingly off-topic, we switch to an allegation of rape by Hamas terrorists that was said to be visually proven. </p><p></p><blockquote><p>In perhaps the most unsettling document presented by the Israeli government, reporters were treated to video showing “a partially burned woman’s corpse, with a mutilated head… The dead woman’s dress is pulled up to her waist and her underpants have been removed,” according to the Times of Israel.</p><p>Daniel Amram, the most popular private news blogger in Israel, tweeted the video of the woman’s burned corpse, claiming that “she was raped and burned alive.”</p></blockquote><p></p><p>Having seen the footage himself, Max didn't buy that reading. "In fact, the young woman appeared to have been killed instantly by a powerful blast. And she seemed to have been removed from the car in which she was seated – and which may have belonged to a captor from Gaza. The vehicle was comprehensively destroyed and situated on a dirt field, as many others attacked by Apache helicopters were. ... many female attendees dressed in skimpy attire, and her bent limbs were typical of a body that had been seated in a car after rigor mortis, Israeli pundits and officials ran with the claim she had been raped."</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqgbDaN6GwVQz9tCKXXn5W6Q4w9z0OyXMVsTbPKf7uiRbtwqFVjb4jazgGLO2shlTFgtMBUm5DqYpnS1-S-Vcgi0j1a0XotYp2nDqqHOiKsACdQs_4GhKNYzdHfOQSxAnPig6vfE96xuv7bdUPzczUSKEkkJPrOnEboTMBHIDnWfqCi_V72RCZJQATPclY/s890/10-7_rape_road.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="890" data-original-width="520" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqgbDaN6GwVQz9tCKXXn5W6Q4w9z0OyXMVsTbPKf7uiRbtwqFVjb4jazgGLO2shlTFgtMBUm5DqYpnS1-S-Vcgi0j1a0XotYp2nDqqHOiKsACdQs_4GhKNYzdHfOQSxAnPig6vfE96xuv7bdUPzczUSKEkkJPrOnEboTMBHIDnWfqCi_V72RCZJQATPclY/s320/10-7_rape_road.png" width="187" /></a></div>Now I have seen the footage as well - it was posted to <a href="https://www.hamas-massacre.net/categories/the-nova-party-massacre">hamas-massacre.net</a> as "<span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">The body of a woman who was burned to death." </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><b>Add 12/3:</b> the site has some new images and a new category - <a href="https://www.hamas-massacre.net/categories/murdered-in-the-streets">https://www.hamas-massacre.net/categories/murdered-in-the-streets</a> - including a still view of this victim as "Woman killed and left on the street" - shown at right (end add). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">The video was filmed at night, probably 12+ hours after the attack. It's uncensored but kind of blurry, and vague on the underwear issue - I'll accept they're absent, which would be odd for someone in a dress that wispy. That plus the spread legs does raise suspicion. But I agree she suffered <b>an</b></span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><b> instant death from a blast to the back of the head (see split scalp and broken skull edge visible)</b>, and she is seen burned next to a burned car with her knees bent. But I think Max missed some big clue in the massive wound to the woman's right thigh and the way her right arm sticks up in the air.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7hq9rPYyHKYz91KAh2LIXNcHW-Hcm3WD1-KmaYk_7FvDFao5H8V3uVCqAYikTr8aRSD8VznqBjweLJULOKhJwYLHb1puIjmk2hY5oQwdV3mhQ7yFTxBgc-S2HxZqUVzTErdvWwgLMkD0ZGMAJgfP7f_Zr09246vUzS0R-QWP72qHKnPjpE8B5dfvuHS7I/s949/Screenshot%20(5126).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="881" data-original-width="949" height="594" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7hq9rPYyHKYz91KAh2LIXNcHW-Hcm3WD1-KmaYk_7FvDFao5H8V3uVCqAYikTr8aRSD8VznqBjweLJULOKhJwYLHb1puIjmk2hY5oQwdV3mhQ7yFTxBgc-S2HxZqUVzTErdvWwgLMkD0ZGMAJgfP7f_Zr09246vUzS0R-QWP72qHKnPjpE8B5dfvuHS7I/w640-h594/Screenshot%20(5126).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; text-align: center;"><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">That the leg wound has a width of about 28-30 cm if the woman between 5'2" and 5'6" tall. The Apache uses</span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"> M230 chain gun that fires 30mm shells (</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M230_chain_gun" style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; text-align: center;">M230 chain gun - Wikipedia</a>) <span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">- full shell size shown below. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUJihoYr5VoEc_C1nupvIfNaeYfViL6oYoW4opWKVqkmDcmbEU4N4cpuchIeTl9Kcj60lTDzBi4H0a_B13uFQa3ErceLRfujbyjH2OI59x9_p5CrM5FSoJGMkk-vqfYbKJIHpVbkmjCoZ1H5zuci3YrA_CZV-nuRO_AMAY07z_5MUv1CDW7dQIYIgrB8Fe/s823/Screenshot%20(5135).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="416" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUJihoYr5VoEc_C1nupvIfNaeYfViL6oYoW4opWKVqkmDcmbEU4N4cpuchIeTl9Kcj60lTDzBi4H0a_B13uFQa3ErceLRfujbyjH2OI59x9_p5CrM5FSoJGMkk-vqfYbKJIHpVbkmjCoZ1H5zuci3YrA_CZV-nuRO_AMAY07z_5MUv1CDW7dQIYIgrB8Fe/w324-h640/Screenshot%20(5135).png" width="324" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><br /></span><p></p><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular;">S</span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular;">he was likely shot across the right thigh with one of these - </span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular;">apparently hit from the left, making a nasty black bruise on her inner thigh - with a downward angle to the right. </span>This happened while her thigh was horizontal - perhaps seated in a car, or maybe crouching on the ground (especially with upper body turned to face the left), or maybe running with right knee up. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">These shells explode on solid contact (Wikipedia): "</span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">The M789 is the U.S. Apache's main tactical round, a High Explosive Dual Purpose (HEDP) ammunition cartridge. ... designed to fragment upon impact, killing unprotected, standing people up to about 5 ft (1.5 m) away under optimum conditions." But her leg was just ripped open, not blown off. </span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">As I reason it, a shell might rip across her leg without its centrally-place fuze being triggered (diagram). </span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvQ25Y3w6p0K2HARrLzSvcgF4tfkrD3uaNCvJZAnBHZXLQZvRZUO_gYFYgPaOVdNVfL-8XHqJFh5Ydz-2lb3FPQ7REH5zxI7XVN_uzkMPJBOBEpFnYLQHocxljz-sii6GGh4hAQLah6T9sRBjk9wX2OBYiABoDtPyZ90KDxGxSOnT41zWOzvVFXYJ62MyU/s459/10-7_shell_diagram.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="227" data-original-width="459" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvQ25Y3w6p0K2HARrLzSvcgF4tfkrD3uaNCvJZAnBHZXLQZvRZUO_gYFYgPaOVdNVfL-8XHqJFh5Ydz-2lb3FPQ7REH5zxI7XVN_uzkMPJBOBEpFnYLQHocxljz-sii6GGh4hAQLah6T9sRBjk9wX2OBYiABoDtPyZ90KDxGxSOnT41zWOzvVFXYJ62MyU/s16000/10-7_shell_diagram.png" /></a></div><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">In that case, it would detonate on the next solid contact. If that was a car door inches away, we'd see major explosive damage to her leg. I propose she was in the open, either crouching or running when first hit. S</span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">he fell forward just as the shell</span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"> hit the ground to her right and a bit behind her, or behind her left-turned head and back, and finally detonated. This took off the back of her head, blowing it open, and probably caused damage all up the back side, and some on the right side, mostly invisible here (there is at least one likely shrapnel mark on the right cheek).</span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">That was my best guess for fatal injuries, but it's just a guess and there are other possibilities. I think it makes sense, but maybe it doesn't. I'm more certain about the next part.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">For that right arm to stick out that way against gravity does not mean, as it might appear to some, that she was fending off an attacker and her arm froze that way when she finally died. A newly dead arm will flop down right away. What this means is that <b>her body was originally in a different position</b>: face-down and turned facing a bit left, right arm bent with palm on the ground and elbow up is all that makes sense. </span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">It would take some 8-12 hours or so for rigor mortis to develop so fully that her arm stays that way despite gravity -</span><a href="https://www.medicinenet.com/what_are_the_stages_of_rigor_mortis/article.htm" style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">What Are the Stages of Rigor Mortis? 6 Stages (medicinenet.com)</a></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Her arm now has to spite gravity because </span><b style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">someone rolled her body over into this position, at least 8-12 hours after her death</b><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"> (and maybe longer - the rigor state fades off more slowly, so that this image could be up to 36 hours or so after death, on the second night). </span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">The new position would make the head wound less obvious, allowing for other apparent causes of death. It was only after this that<b> I think </b></span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><b>her legs were spread, by the scene manipulator(s), to suggest rape, and h</b></span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><b>er underwear was likely removed then, for the same reason</b> (anyone wearing a dress that skimpy would probably wear panties too). I think<b> it can only be in this position that </b></span><b><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">her corpse was lit up and partly</span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><b>burned</b> next to this car, separately from its own burning hours before. This might hide clues or be done just t</span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">o suggest she was "burned alive" to heighten the horror. </span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"> </span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">Good news: this poor woman probably died instantly, and did not suffer rape or burning alive. Bad news: There might be some innocent explanation, but this suggests <b>some pretty twisted manipulation after the fact. </b>W</span><span style="font-family: wfont_44ac94_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab1d8aa1f, wf_2ad0f08ac0754b31bf4d90eab, orig_anonymous_pro_regular; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;">ho could and would do such a thing, long after Hamas was chased away? </span>There were the ZAKA and other rescuers, Israeli police ... it almost has to be someone in that class, someone among them with a sick agenda to exaggerate Hamas' crimes and/or obscure Israel's.</p></span><p>Above, "Major Graeme" had said “there was some bodies there that the special forces went and collected.” This may be one of those gathered up to hide the clues. But if so, the provocative pose made it irresistible as propaganda, so it got shown off anyway, luckily for the cause of truth and justice.</p><div><b>3F) A Limited Admission?</b></div><p></p><p><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/israel-admits-it-killed-its-own-at-nova-music-festival">Israel admits it killed its own at Nova music festival (thecradle.co)</a></p><p>"An Israeli police investigation into the Hamas attack on the Nova music festival near the Gaza border on 7 October revealed that <b>an Israeli attack helicopter killed some of the attendees</b>, Haaretz reported on 18 November." </p><p>"According to a police source, an investigation into the incident showed that an Israeli combat helicopter that arrived at the scene from the Ramat David base fired at Hamas fighters and other Palestinians who crossed through the border fence from Gaza into Israel, but also fired on some of the Israelis attending the music festival. According to the police, 364 people were killed there."</p><p>Article link: <a href="https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/2023-11-18/ty-article/0000018b-e1a5-d168-a3ef-f5ff4d070000">https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/2023-11-18/ty-article/0000018b-e1a5-d168-a3ef-f5ff4d070000</a></p><p>Nothing there says the IDF killed the full 364, or any more than a few. But even this limited acknowledgement is not accepted by Israeli authorities, with the police leadership coming down hard on Ha'aretz for casting doubt on the official mythology and undermining the drive for war. <a href="https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/11/19/palestinian-authority-denies-hamas-massacre-at-music-festival/">"Foundation for the Defense of Democracies" spoke up</a> for official sources over a free media, lamenting how "a flimsy Israeli newspaper article" citing "unnamed Israeli police source who said a few revelers may have been mistaken for terrorists and killed by an Israeli military helicopter" was being used by Palestinians and others to deny or minimize Hamas' actions. They cited an Israeli police statement: “Contrary to the publication, the police investigation does not refer to the activity of the IDF forces, and therefore no indication was given of any harm to civilians caused by any aerial activity at the site.” It might be true, but it's not something they even looked into, or saw among the things they looked at, or have any idea about ... it's not something they officially speak about, anyway. Others shouldn't speak about it either. That's what will be investigated only AFTER Hamas has been eradicated.</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/JoeTruzman/status/1726263436659798178">Another citation</a> adds: </p><p>"The preliminary findings of the ongoing national inquiry, spearheaded by law enforcement and communicated to the international media, cast a spotlight on the profound and reprehensible acts committed by Hamas terrorists during the Nova music festival. Any effort to downplay the severity of these atrocities, as depicted in the misleading Haaretz newspaper publication, deserves unequivocal rejection." </p><p><b>The "inquiry" is into how they can propagate a certain view in the public mind. </b>Tip: that's not what inquiries into crimes do. That's called propaganda, and this is word play. But it's their basis to demand "Particularly at this time, we call on the media to show responsibility in their reporting, and to base their journalism on official sources only." We are in 100% war propaganda mode and only we can be trusted. Relevant facts that don't serve that purpose must be rejected. There can be no independent media checks on this.</p><p><b>Next: part 4: Visual Evidence, Seen and Unseen</b></p></div></div></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-4090872173274355972023-11-26T12:00:00.000-08:002023-11-30T13:10:14.163-08:00Who was Behind the Kibbutz Massacres?<p><b>October 7 Massacre in Israel, p. 2: Who was Behind the Kibbutz Massacres?</b></p><p><b>November 26, 2023</b></p><p><b><a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/11/which-israelis-are-making-up-stories.html">< Part 1: Which Israelis are "Making Up Stories?"</a></b></p><p><b>2A) Inside the "Be'eri Massacre": The Dagan House </b></p><p>The most detailed account of IDF hostage elimination in the October 7 massacre comes from a woman named Yasmin Porat, who has given at least 4 interviews.</p><p>10/15 Kan News, Haboker Hazeh interview: <a href="https://electronicintifada.net/content/israeli-forces-shot-their-own-civilians-kibbutz-survivor-says/38861">Israeli forces shot their own civilians, kibbutz survivor says | The Electronic Intifada</a> 10/15 with updates: "Although it no longer appears on the Kan website, there can be little doubt about the recording’s authenticity." <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/yasmin-porat-speaks-out-israeli-hostage-contradicts-official-account/ar-AA1iGlG3">By October 23</a>: "Porat's testimony mysteriously disappeared from the "Haboker Hazeh" program, leading to rampant speculation about censorship." </p><p>10/24 CNN interview, somehow omitting all the controversial details: <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/24/hostage-hamas-released-israel-ebof-sot-vpx.cnn">https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/24/hostage-hamas-released-israel-ebof-sot-vpx.cnn</a></p><p>11/15 Kan News, Kalman Liberman program, including 2nd hand testimony from fellow survivor Hadas Dagan: <a href="https://omny.fm/shows/kan-news/4-26">https://omny.fm/shows/kan-news/4-26</a> - 11/25 analysis <a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2023/11/25/israels-october-7-propaganda-tank-eyewitnesses/">Israeli October 7 posterchild was killed by Israeli tank, eyewitnesses reveal - The Grayzone</a> - <a href="https://electronicintifada.net/content/israeli-child-burned-completely-israeli-tank-fire-kibbutz/41706">Israeli child “burned completely” by Israeli tank fire at kibbutz | The Electronic Intifada</a></p><p>11/18 <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/world/family-gathers-for-a-farewell-ceremony-for-liel-a-12-year-old-victim-of-hamas">https://nationalpost.com/news/world/family-gathers-for-a-farewell-ceremony-for-liel-a-12-year-old-victim-of-hamas</a></p><p>From these sources, here's a detailed narrative: Yasmin and her boyfriend Tal Katz weren't locals, but came for the Nova party. They had just left that when a rocket attack occurred. They took shelter in a house in Be'eri with others until they were discovered by Hamas gunmen and taken captive. They were driven to another house with yet other prisoners. There were 15 captives there total: Yasmin and Tal, the 12-year-old twins, Liel and Yanai Hetzroni and their great-aunt Ayala, and 10 other hostages, "most of them elderly kibbutz members," including house owners Adi and Hadas Dagan. </p><p>The Hamas fighters "treated us humanely," Porat said, meeting their needs and calming their fears as possible. “They did not abuse us. … No one treated us violently.” She was told and believed “The objective was to kidnap us to Gaza, not to murder us.” She says that fellow survivor Hadas Dagan told her that “There were no executions, or anything like that. At least not the people with her.”</p><p>A Hamas commander decided the IDF had already blocked the roads out of town, preventing their escape (everyone else seems to think he was mistake and they could still have escaped). He asked Yasmin to call the police, thinking that could help them get around the blockade and/or survive. "She said she made seven calls to the police during the afternoon, at the behest of the terrorists. In one of the calls, the terrorists put the frantic Liel on the phone, because they thought Porat was being too controlled in her conversation and they wanted a sobbing child to get on the call." </p><p>Two hours later, the police arrived. This time allows for a briefing on special tactics for this situation. But when they arrive, Porat says, "A gun battle takes place that our police started." 100+ shots were fired by both sides, leaving hostages and kidnappers ducking for cover, It sounds like one shot grazed Yasmin's leg, leaving just a bruise. </p><p>The commander was talking with police, wanting to surrender. Around 5:30 PM they had him strip and go outside with that Yasmin lady they spoke with. He walked over with her in front at gunpoint until the police took her and arrested him. In the CNN interview, she seems to say that other Hamas fighters had threatened to shoot the commander for ditching them like that, but for some reason they never did. She was safe, but "my boyfriend and the others are still there with 40 terrorists because just one surrendered." She never mentions the army arriving or just how it was that "no one stayed alive." </p><div><p>On her way out, Yasmin saw 5 or 6 hostages on the grass outside, wounded and/or just laying low "from the massacre, in the line of fire between our forces and the terrorists." Interviewer: "they could have been shot by our own forces while they were trying to eliminate the kidnappers?" Porat: "Absolutely. It's painful for me, they fired on everyone there, including the hostages." On the grass: her boyfriend Tal, another man named Tal, house owner Adi Dagan and his wife Hadas, 1-2 others. </p><p>It seems she remained on-site to observe the following events, probably hoping for Tal to be freed. She stayed involved, explaining in the 11/15 interview: </p><p></p><blockquote>“I sat there with the commander of the unit,” Porat recalled, “and I described to him what the house looks like, and where the terrorists are, and where the hostages are. I actually drew it for him: ‘Look, here, on the lawn there are four hostages that are lying this way on the lawn. Here are two that are lying under the terrace. And in the living room there is a woman lying like this, and a woman lying like this.” Porat explained, “I told [the Israeli commander] about the twins (Yanai and Liel Hatzroni) and their great-aunt (Ayala), I didn’t see them. You know what, when I left, they were the only ones I didn’t see. I heard Liel the whole time, so I know for certain that they were there.. I tried to explain to [the commander] that from somewhere near the kitchen, that’s where I heard the screams coming from. I didn’t see her, but I heard her, and I heard where the screams were coming from. I tried to explain to them where all the hostages were.”</blockquote><p></p><p>The timeline is a bit confused, but 2-3 hours after her release, the Israelis opted to end the standoff, perhaps using that information.</p><p>10/15: "The fighting apparently ended at 8:30 after insane crossfire. <b>Two tank shells were fired into the house. </b>It's a small kibbutz house, nothing big. You saw it on the news. ... and at that moment they were all killed. There was quiet, except for one survivor that came out of the garden, Hadas." </p><p>11/15: "At around 7:30 pm, after some four hours of crossfire consisting of “hundreds of thousands of bullets,” Porat peered from behind Israeli lines and observed an Israeli tank firing two shells into the small kibbutz house." Someone explained to her it was "to break the walls, in order to help purify the house.” But there was no need to enter, as the situation was ended (purified?) by those 2 shots. Everyone was "killed in the crossfire," not just possibly but "undoubtedly" killed by the Israeli side. </p></div><p></p><p>Yasmin says the damaged Dagan house was seen "on the news." I'm not sure which house it is, seen where ... it could be this one, from the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Be%27eri_massacre">Be'eri massacre Wikipedia page</a>. To me this looks like 2+ impact of differing power, perhaps from tank shells (which Hamas did not have) and/or, perhaps, a powerful RPG, which they might have had. </p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS2nwTYhSgz6c51mRZyy0mvSq03TMsFnHbCWYINXyKJH47dvPo5Gdk50o4YWY-Nd7dLRN6bgVfRS1q-EBcH8rjrr4oZ_vRHD7OH_PaENRsmRCSExTMYZVRToavHGtI6v8t8Tv2vlEpfHSYR3jijH-SMsnSboq0433pnsZX9yk7a6XgeueNSl10hD76GQoW/s3000/Be'eri%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2000" data-original-width="3000" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS2nwTYhSgz6c51mRZyy0mvSq03TMsFnHbCWYINXyKJH47dvPo5Gdk50o4YWY-Nd7dLRN6bgVfRS1q-EBcH8rjrr4oZ_vRHD7OH_PaENRsmRCSExTMYZVRToavHGtI6v8t8Tv2vlEpfHSYR3jijH-SMsnSboq0433pnsZX9yk7a6XgeueNSl10hD76GQoW/w640-h426/Be'eri%201.jpg" width="640" /></a></p><p>Note: I'm not expert enough to decide exact weapon was used. Almost down the line, what could be Israeli missile could be a heavy Hamas mortar, a tank shell or maybe a heavy RPG shell, etc. Any of them could damage a building, blow in a car's roof and set it ablaze, as far as I know. Some expert analysis could help narrow down the possibilities, but for me, the evidence is mainly too ambiguous to easily pin the blame on either side for all that happened. A more expert opinion might help here.</p><p>Several houses were damaged, most of them less visibly, and most or all suffered fires like the kind that often follow such attacks, but could also have been started by Hamas trying to smoke people out of their shelters. From <a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2023/11/25/israels-october-7-propaganda-tank-eyewitnesses/">the Gray Zone article on events at the Dagan house</a>, a picture of a house with consistent damage used for illustration, but that I found is specified as a different house. "Mati and Amir Weiss, the parents of kibbutz security-team member Yuval, were at their home, pictured here, when Hamas fighters burst in. He was unable to reach them in time. REUTERS /Ronen Zvulun" <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/israel-palestinians-kibbutz-attack/">https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/israel-palestinians-kibbutz-attack/</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgadFOilj_sLOWXfSFv8KF9vWbTADw8tRyUkHJUNxY6u3uRqlE0kjUV95-Z53-b_keq3sUXbEciwX5zr4wy65bOIRM9-WYBsBXU7C64NB6VGPhVaYdjmaPjkxQXya8hj-SuQCwRYq-gI6LdtVyjVR3i34FvMfEB5OMYFAOeHl8l_nf_Qn-hOuk7o9_EVgw0/s1750/Screenshot%20(5139).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1750" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgadFOilj_sLOWXfSFv8KF9vWbTADw8tRyUkHJUNxY6u3uRqlE0kjUV95-Z53-b_keq3sUXbEciwX5zr4wy65bOIRM9-WYBsBXU7C64NB6VGPhVaYdjmaPjkxQXya8hj-SuQCwRYq-gI6LdtVyjVR3i34FvMfEB5OMYFAOeHl8l_nf_Qn-hOuk7o9_EVgw0/w640-h293/Screenshot%20(5139).png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><p>Maybe it's this place? (image from around)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7jROJxROciz3IYJUqe1B20VUVcccYqS3hmAqXRKDYK-sMuPMmUn3BBE6rmM4XY6Khw0OHdjhG0XovuwLRF_F4n8GCGM1QyVdkDIEM3F7VNt-g5nm5S0FJYD-ZhWBBb7BPcg3Ij7cDFPXRq7Rkso2JylBjTbrVENuOoNlR8RuRnuldZwgHjYnDhPpJfneT/s1592/Be'eri_2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="928" data-original-width="1592" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7jROJxROciz3IYJUqe1B20VUVcccYqS3hmAqXRKDYK-sMuPMmUn3BBE6rmM4XY6Khw0OHdjhG0XovuwLRF_F4n8GCGM1QyVdkDIEM3F7VNt-g5nm5S0FJYD-ZhWBBb7BPcg3Ij7cDFPXRq7Rkso2JylBjTbrVENuOoNlR8RuRnuldZwgHjYnDhPpJfneT/w640-h374/Be'eri_2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>Dagan told Porat how the tank shells detonating hurled her in the air, leaving her "covered in her husband’s blood" and seemingly paralyzed for a few minutes. "Upon regaining consciousness, Dagan realized that the captives who had been lying on either side of her – her husband Adi Dagan and Porat’s partner, Tal Katz – had just died from tank shell shrapnel. “When I opened my eyes, I saw that my Adi is dying,” Porat recalls Dagan saying. “Your Tal also stopped moving at that point.” </p><p>Total killed: 13 hostages including 2 children, and some 40 Hamas terrorists - apparently none of them killed <i>by</i> Hamas terrorists. Adi Dagan was confirmed dead prior to October 9 (<a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/eshkol-releases-names-of-47-residents-killed-in-hamas-massacres/">Times of Israel</a>). "Tal was declared missing for several days until his body was found." His red dot placed among the deaths at the rave (<a href="https://oct7map.com/TalKatz">Oct7map</a>). Yanai Hetzroni was identified but Liel and great-aunt Ayala were presumed kidnapped - not just missing - as of October 26 (<a href="https://twitter.com/velitesgear/status/1717620430280724813">post</a> - linked article now 404). Aunt Ayala was identified prior to a November 15 funeral (for her) and 'farewell ceremony" for Liel, burying some belongings in lieu of a body. <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-16/ty-article/.premium/giving-up-hope-family-of-girl-12-missing-since-massacre-say-goodbye/0000018b-d4db-df9a-ab8b-dedb37350000">Giving Up Hope, Family of 12-year Old Israeli, Missing Since Hamas Massacre, Says Goodbye - Israel News - Haaretz.com</a> Maybe they hadn't been informed that Liel's fragmentary remains were identified on November 13 <a href="https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-773213#:~:text=Authorities%20identified%20the%20body%20of%2012-year-old%20Liel%20Hezroni,kidnapped%20since%20the%20attack%2C%20was%20also%20confirmed%20dead.">12-year-old girl missing since Oct. 7 found dead in Be'eri - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)</a>. They were found in the wreckage of the house she was last seen in.</p><p>Over the following days, Israeli official accounts announced Liel's murder by Hamas to refresh the horror and the hate. <a href="https://twitter.com/naftalibennett/status/1724419046123164135">Former PM Naftali Bennett</a>: "Liel Hetzroni of Kibbutz Beeri was murdered in her home by Hamas monsters.” <a href="https://twitter.com/Israel/status/1728031404708032701">Israel on X</a>: “All that remains of 12 year old Liel Hetzroni is ash and bone fragments. ... #HamasMassacre" </p><p>Well, 100% of the surviving witnesses disagree. Hadas Dagan confirmed to Porat that it was the IDF's tank shells and ensuing fire that turned Liel into charred pieces: <b>“‘The girl did not stop screaming for all those hours … [but] when those two shells hit, [Liel] stopped screaming. There was silence then.” </b>Porat concluded, “So what can you take away from that? That after that very massive incident, the shooting, which concluded with two shells, that is pretty much when everyone died.” It's not clear if the soldiers could hear Liel wailing and then the contrasting silence. But Porat says she explained all the people present and just where they were. And the police had heard from the hysterical young girl inside. And yet the IDF and everyone then pretended to have no idea, to think the girl had been somehow kidnapped away from that scene. Maybe by the time they found otherwise, they could forget that they had killed her.</p><p>That's not the whole picture at Be'eri, representing only about 10% of those killed. But it is a disturbing bit of it. </p><p><b>2B) Inside the Be'eri Massacre: Elsewhere</b></p><p>Another account comes from Tuval Escapa who, as Blumenthal explains, is "a member of the security team for Kibbutz Be’eri," who "set up a hotline to coordinate between kibbutz residents and the Israeli army" Escapa was away on business and managed this by phone, while his partner "was besieged in her home shelter at the time." She didn't survive that weekend. This account has plural "houses" shelled before it was all over, perhaps including his own. </p><p></p><blockquote>“According to him, only on Monday night and only after the commanders in the field made difficult decisions — including shelling houses with all their occupants inside in order to eliminate the terrorists along with the hostages — did the IDF complete the takeover of the kibbutz. The price was terrible: at least 112 Be’eri people were killed. Others were kidnapped. Yesterday, 11 days after the massacre, the bodies of a mother and her son were discovered in one of the destroyed houses. It is believed that more bodies are still lying in the rubble.” <a href="https://mondoweiss.net/2023/10/a-growing-number-of-reports-indicate-israeli-forces-responsible-for-israeli-civilian-and-military-deaths-following-october-7-attack/">A growing number of reports indicate Israeli forces responsible for Israeli civilian and military deaths following October 7 attack – Mondoweiss</a> </blockquote><p>A quite detailed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/israel-palestinians-kibbutz-attack/">November 2 Reuters report</a> agrees "It wasn’t until the following day, Monday, that the IDF declared the attack over," suggesting some kind of hostage situation(s), perhaps, had dragged it out for some two days. But there's no mention of how these might have resolved. Tanks aren't mentioned at all. According to this article, the "Battle of Be'eri" was fought against some 150 Hamas fighters by lightly-armed security guards (with the heavy guns locked away and the key missing on the killed commander), along with some disorganized volunteers, and army units that only came and went most of the day. Some "slow" troops arrived around 2pm, and by around 6PM, they had commenced battle. The article ends its coverage with a volunteer rescuer killed by Hamas fighters around 10am on Sunday. Some 24-36 hours or crucial events are simply omitted.</p><p>Lt Col Salman Habaka, who would later die fighting in Gaza, "was among the first Israeli troops to arrive ... and later described his part in the fighting in Be’eri in a video interview." (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/02/israeli-tank-commander-hailed-as-hero-after-hamas-attack-is-killed-in-gaza?CMP=share_btn_tw">The Guardian</a>) He saw it differently, or saw a different part of it, or was just sent out to contradict the above claims: “I arrived in Be’eri to see Brig Gen Barak Hiram and the first thing he asks me is to fire a shell into a house [where Hamas were sheltering],” he said. “The first question that comes to your mind is – are there hostages there? We did all the preliminary checks before we decided to fire a shell into a house. Then we went from house to house to free the hostages. " Apparently he did not fire his tank, since hostages were inside. But he was asked to, despite that fact? Instead, they went house-to-house. "And that’s how the fighting was until the evening. In the kibbutz and in the streets." </p><p>Maybe it was only after evening fell that the operation changed, and he just didn't mention that. After that, at 7:30 or 8:30 perhaps someone else followed another request to blast terrorists along 13 hostages, including children. And aside from that house, the stand off lasted 2 more days to Monday night before the final turns with more shelling of occupied homes and some 130 killed in the end.</p><p>Consider: tank commander Habaka said "as soon as people heard the rumbling of the tanks, they suddenly had a moment of security," while Yasmin Porat "described a sense of panic as she watched the tank trundle into the small community." </p><p>Some wonder if the young female tank commanders celebrated <a href=" https://twitter.com/IsraelWarRoom/status/1728829568918945989">in this video</a> were responsible, but they came from the south and fought at Sufa and Holit - one recalls being told to fire on a building with terrorists inside. She asked if there are civilians inside, and he said "I don't know. Just shoot." She says she checked, like Habaka did, found there were civilians, and used lesser means instead. </p><p>The site <a href="https://oct7map.com/">October7map.com</a> does not cite these accounts in its explanation of the "Hostage Situation in Be'eri." Citing one news article, they relate how Hamas "captured around 50 civilians, some seen in "harrowing video footage ... being led barefoot along the streets to the Kibbutz dining hall. When Israeli security forces arrived at the scene, the terrorists barricaded themselves in the kibbutz dining hall, beginning an 18-hour long stand-off. With the arrival of additional Israeli security forces, the hostages were liberated and the terrorists largely neutralized."</p><p>Perhaps another 100+ were also held in other spots and later killed rather than freed. If so, this report doesn't mention it. No one's even directly refuting the alleged final turn of events, they just ignore it and focus on more pleasant episodes that keeps blame on Hamas and off of the IDF.</p><p>Same site: "The chilling aftermath of the Be'eri massacre exposed a scene of merciless brutality, with approximately 80% of the recovered bodies showing signs of torture." Perhaps 100% of that "torture" was instead caused by IDF weapons exploding. "Particularly harrowing were the accounts of a ZAKA official describing two piles of ten children each, with their hands bound together, burnt to death." However many bound kids were found bound is a number of captives Hamas probably meant to take alive to Gaza until something went wrong.</p><p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/israel-palestinians-kibbutz-attack/">Reuters, November 2</a>: "Reuters identified at least 42 residential buildings – nearly a quarter of those in the kibbutz – with substantial structural damage," mainly in the western Olives and Vineyard districts (a map is provided). "This is likely an undercount; only buildings with burn scars or obvious major structural damage were included." From a short drone view attached to this report:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwVaDNjQrO_FRLEihyphenhyphenjXnaSbEE3-pQzcJgIvdbAWJr0LCSe2kbcP7-I1Yvx-1yCFArPo2WXIdD-oViRbKR8hSGYMy1YbYU-YaxWgDJRk7Vk9wbaP7ZkTvL_xdRqvrLyRttPKfJ-zrP7YLaWpioKs8OTx0gykeyIbNSRTqe3gNIgmSEaNoXmCDLMyHXGNdp/s1652/Screenshot%20(5144).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="686" data-original-width="1652" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwVaDNjQrO_FRLEihyphenhyphenjXnaSbEE3-pQzcJgIvdbAWJr0LCSe2kbcP7-I1Yvx-1yCFArPo2WXIdD-oViRbKR8hSGYMy1YbYU-YaxWgDJRk7Vk9wbaP7ZkTvL_xdRqvrLyRttPKfJ-zrP7YLaWpioKs8OTx0gykeyIbNSRTqe3gNIgmSEaNoXmCDLMyHXGNdp/w640-h266/Screenshot%20(5144).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1mXH1Q3tkIri-HajMDmAlVs74DmojnABjMvb6emp4ZdodbTLWRM2kQ3RkireJmX_KuBeIpAq8coYW_9WCthX8DS5g_RP-U5DnLTHwoW_gMYikzVEboKObM9q88PF_ckyvMNmXLeOz1kdAAbMSdz7OZA9uMc562ojx9XYf65FS7GGxCL9e8E_4IU22I3VH/s1000/Screenshot%20(5141).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="588" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1mXH1Q3tkIri-HajMDmAlVs74DmojnABjMvb6emp4ZdodbTLWRM2kQ3RkireJmX_KuBeIpAq8coYW_9WCthX8DS5g_RP-U5DnLTHwoW_gMYikzVEboKObM9q88PF_ckyvMNmXLeOz1kdAAbMSdz7OZA9uMc562ojx9XYf65FS7GGxCL9e8E_4IU22I3VH/w235-h400/Screenshot%20(5141).png" width="235" /></a></div>Hidden at the far end of this view is where tanks left new tracks, as seen from a different angle in another video (at right). I didn't read the entire Reuters report, but the word "tank" doesn't appear once. It seems that all damage is assumed by Hamas, using whatever weapons, and all deaths and injuries are assumed to be their work alone. <p></p><p>Two soldiers and a ZAKA rescuer claim to have seen bound bodies executed with gunshots to the head, and two women disrobed as if raped. But others describe scenes likely to result from tank fire or the like. "a young person, burned beyond recognition ... and both forearms were missing. ... two children whose skulls had been crushed and had knife [shrapnel?] wounds on their bodies. Their parents lay dead nearby, he said, with similar wounds." </p><p>Stories of people shot and/or grenaded in their safe rooms appear in the Reuters report and others. these accounts are numerous, detailed, and plausible, along with the efforts to smoke people out. To kill Israeli civilians was surely allowed, if not the main plan. If that was to abduct as many as possible and get them back to Gaza, they would need to do it quickly before the IDF could rally and prevent their escape. They might have time to try brute force to get at some resistant people and encourage them to surrender. They could shoot people then offer medical aid - carrot and stick. But for the most part, they probably would not have time to engage in much rape or intricate torture or dismemberment, managing who has to watch what, and so on, as alleged.</p><p>Death toll review: Oct7map lists 85+ Murdered, 26+ Kidnapped, including 13 Kidnap Survivors (safely retuned as of 11/26), 4 Missing. Different sources give a final death toll in Be'eri of 112+, or 130+. Ha'aretz listed 99 names when I checked, including a 10-month-old girl, who was then de-listed (maybe re-added since). Other infants may have been killed and never listed. ZAKA head Yossi Landau <a href="https://twitter.com/leeonskee/status/1728401561892581581">said</a> they recovered 280 bodies in Be'eri, 80% showing signs of "torture." Some 150 terrorists as said + 130 civilians as said = 280. That adds up pretty well. At least 10% of the civilians (13 hostages including 2 children) were almost surely killed by the IDF and not Hamas.</p><p><b>2C) What about the Other Kibbutz Massacres?</b></p><p>It's not clear if Be'eri was the exception or if events unfolded similarly in the other kibbutz attacks, but some evidence suggests others went the same way. The site October 7 map.com (<a href="https://oct7map.com/">https://oct7map.com/</a>) shows the affected kibbutzim (villages) with red dots for the killed and black dots for those kidnapped clustered around them. An interesting pattern emerges.</p><p>Yasmin Porat said that it seemed like Hamas' objective was "to kidnap us to Gaza, not to murder us.” If that were the plan and it worked smoothly in any kibbutz, we would see a few deaths of security guards, a number of kidnappings, and no additional murders. If the plan was thwarted completely, then no Hamas fighters escaped, at least not with captives as planned, but sadly many civilians might wind up killed instead of whisked away. </p><p>There may be smooth examples, but it's not clear if so. Nir Yitzakh seems closest, with 7 dead including "several" defenders and 7 kidnapped. But even there a clash with the IDF was involved. Most other villages witnessed their own battles where Hamas fighters were pinned down and killed, quite likely while holed up with some their hostages just like at Be'eri.</p><p>Seven examples with notes mainly from Oct7map:</p><p><b>Nir Yitzhak: </b>14-hour ordeal (7am to 9 pm): "The kibbutz's security squad bravely confronted the attackers to safeguard the community. The head of the kibbutz's domestic security and several security squad members lost their lives during the conflict. Numerous civilians were taken hostage. Responding Lotar unit members engaged the terrorists at the kibbutz, neutralizing the majority and subduing the remainder." 7 kidnapped, 7 killed, one specified "on duty" and "several" others should be too. If 7 defenders were killed, that means 0 civilian murders to achieve these 7 abductions.</p><p><b>Nirim: </b>3 security personnel, 5 civilians killed, and just 4 kidnapped before village defenders rallied and chased Hamas out of the town long before they commenced any mass abduction or mass killing, and long before the IDF showed up. Here, perhaps Hamas unnecessarily killed 5 civilians before they were forced to stop. Or maybe they got out of town with 5 other hostages but had their car(s) hit by Apache helicopters and had to take the blame for their grisly torture and murder there on the roadside?</p><div><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2kNVl20RSg-CJxstWzMx56hdXNgyuRm4aqGd84ySNT-KKNGnL1XfemoPfzrVnIH6ThoNCGB_TcRqTHSLfiaEgeZ5_7j-ANkHLEwOixjyJETd2UhtL6UxL4PYznoF8Po8zz4N_oKOFpsi03o81_emgRNGs99OlMouJIw_TOmqwAIBHQu6EhheglqI20KEw/s2048/Nir%20Oz%20hand.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1152" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2kNVl20RSg-CJxstWzMx56hdXNgyuRm4aqGd84ySNT-KKNGnL1XfemoPfzrVnIH6ThoNCGB_TcRqTHSLfiaEgeZ5_7j-ANkHLEwOixjyJETd2UhtL6UxL4PYznoF8Po8zz4N_oKOFpsi03o81_emgRNGs99OlMouJIw_TOmqwAIBHQu6EhheglqI20KEw/s320/Nir%20Oz%20hand.jpeg" width="180" /></a></div>Nir Oz</b> - 27+Murdered (~34 red dots), 75+ Kidnapped, 16 of them now returned home safely. Haaretz: 27+ deaths listed - 3 girls of Siman Tov family age 4,6,6 killed with their parents and a girl, 12 = at least 4 kids at Nir Oz listed.</div><div><br /></div><div>"For 10 hours Nir Oz residents fought desperately to keep them at bay. ... Military personnel arrived later in the afternoon to evacuate and assist the surviving residents." (<a href="https://oct7map.com/">Mapping the Massacres (oct7map.com)</a>) Some buildings wound up burned, with some bullet marks seen around evidencing a firefight - but reports say the gunmen all escaped "before help arrived" https://twitter.com/i24NEWS_EN/status/1723340892491178069</div><p><a href="https://twitter.com/AlexGandler/status/1722930455727526240">Alex Gandler on X</a>: "Most houses burned completely, those that haven't been burned show signs of struggle and death." Photo: bloody handprint and explosive fragmentation marks on the same wall. Perhaps Hamas shelled people in their homes after circumventing the guards, just to be vile or because they resisted - or perhaps, as in Be'eri, this was caused <i>after</i> "help arrived."</p><div><p><b>Kfar Aza: </b>Killed: 48 civilians + and 23 on duty + ~5 unnamed red dots (total ~76). Kidnapped: 20 - none returned yet. IDF arrived before Hamas left. There was a battle, after which Hamas fighters were left lying around dead - supposedly unrelated to the damaged and burned homes and killed civilians, including "At least 40 babies, some beheaded" in this one village alone (as some claimed) - <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/10/middleeast/israel-kibbutzim-kfar-aza-beeri-urim-hamas-attack-intl/index.html">Kfar Aza kibbutz attack: Children, women, elderly 'butchered' in Hamas attacks on border communities, IDF says | CNN</a></p></div><div><b>Holit: </b>3 killed on duty, 14 civilians killed, 4 kidnapped. "By early afternoon, a Shaldag Unit reached the kibbutz, engaging and neutralizing ten terrorists with the support of armored units." - gung-ho female tank commanders deployed here and at Sufa - in Holit, one says she was told to fire on terrorists, but held off when she saw there were also civilians inside. Maybe 5 of them? If so, they may be the ones who wound up dead, somehow. The video host praises the ladies: "Eventually, you saved many lives in Holit." https://twitter.com/IsraelWarRoom/status/1728829568918945989</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Sufa battle and Sufa massacre: </b>3 killed on duty, 5 civilians killed, <b>0 kidnapped</b>. "Elia Lilintal, Sufa's head of Domestic Security, quickly detected the intruders. From his bathroom window, he eliminated several terrorists and rallied his six-member security squad. They successfully defended the kibbutz, protecting about 200 of its residents. Tragically, the onslaught claimed three of their own. Six hours later, as reinforcements reached the kibbutz, ten terrorists were captured and twenty were neutralized." This is where "an ISIS flag was discovered among the terrorists' remains." Gung-ho female tank commanders engaged in this battle (see Holit above). </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Kissufim: </b>30 killed, 4 kidnapped - "at least 15 civilians and six Thai workers" were killed, along with 1 security guard (?) and 8 soldiers in the 51st Golani Battalion in "an hours-long battle. Following the heroic battle, by late afternoon, they were assisting trapped residents to safety. The confrontation claimed the lives of eight soldiers. - also labeled: "Kissufim Battle" "Roughly 50 Hamas terrorists stormed a post where soldiers from Golani Brigade's 51st Battalion and some of their families, visiting for Simchat Torah, were located. ... Meanwhile, Hamas terrorists managed to infiltrate Kibbutz Kissufim, slaughtering residents. A special unit helped secure the area; it took nearly 50 hours to gain complete control." No hostage situation is mentioned, but something drew it out for over 2 days, and quite a few locals wound up dead, perhaps along with all the Hamas guys they had been packed around.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Ofakim:</b> 52 murdered (~60 red dots), 8 on duty, 23 named civilians - 14+ injured, <b>0 kidnapped</b>, some rescued "Prolonged fighting ensued between the terrorists and a local security group made up of civilians, police and IDF soldiers. . While the locals were able to eliminate most major threats by 10 a.m., the terrorists murdered over a dozen people. During the attack, Hamas took hostages in a private home, who were later rescued in a police operation." (<a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-ofakim-one-womans-graceful-bravery-offers-precious-solace-to-a-grieving-nation/">In Ofakim, one woman's graceful bravery offers precious solace to a grieving nation | The Times of Israel</a>) Any other hostage situations go unmentioned, but some 50-60+ civilians wound up dead.</div><div><p><b>Limited Abduction Zone mapped: </b>Consider if the plan was to abduct and not murder people, and it went smoothly in some villages, you'd see a few red dots for the security personnel there but no more, and quite a few black dots. That might apply in some places, but what stands out is how black dots fail to appear outside certain zones hugging the Gaza border, marked out here in blue ... </p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVefxKskMh8xoQ_s4kziWvdI6LUDS0xDCG6B6w3bGganDSfqihh_8yFTSLQbJzZOD46CePrTLUqSrTfRpEo5M0c_Jd-LY1GqKFzucNeZSdniFUQXFVbd7UWI98u631lb6FJZdfO9rIk_zSS_Gy12houVJ0zFV6hca3G01tTMirGzNiL9pgNTx7XaiYkBHj/s1151/10-7_Map_limited_abduction_zone.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1151" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVefxKskMh8xoQ_s4kziWvdI6LUDS0xDCG6B6w3bGganDSfqihh_8yFTSLQbJzZOD46CePrTLUqSrTfRpEo5M0c_Jd-LY1GqKFzucNeZSdniFUQXFVbd7UWI98u631lb6FJZdfO9rIk_zSS_Gy12houVJ0zFV6hca3G01tTMirGzNiL9pgNTx7XaiYkBHj/w640-h460/10-7_Map_limited_abduction_zone.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>At the north end, NetivHaAsara and Zikim beach were perhaps both perhaps isolated after strikes on the Erez crossing, and wound up all killing, no abductions. To the east, Ofakim as noted, Netivot and Yakhini, and at least the police station in Sderot all wound up bloody failures, if kidnapping was the plan. The police station apparently was a "Hannibal" situation, and these other village massacres might have been the same. </p><p>By this, Nir Oz had the best survival rate. The peace activist Yocheved Lifshitz was abducted there, along with her activist husband. Maybe it was with her help that the kidnapping process went extra-smooth so many had left before "help arrived" and finished off the stragglers. It did reportedly take until mid-afternoon for the army to arrive. Maybe in other places, the urge to resist and hide helped drag the process out so no one got out alive. Hmm. </p><div><p>We can't prove the full truth, and in its violent incursion Hamas is sure to have killed a number of civilians past the soldiers and security guards they would need to kill. Some of those may have resisted with guns, while others just by refused to be quickly abducted. But from the available evidence, a sizeable portion and perhaps the vast majority of them might have been "Hannibalized" by the IDF rather than slaughtered by Hamas. </p><p>Note: It's not clear if any Hannibal-type endings were improvised or on orders. But the hostage situations that dragged on for about 2 days and then ended suddenly on Monday suggest a centralized decision to wrap this up, get a final and large death toll rife with "Hamas torture," and commence using that to justify flattening north Gaza. </p></div><p>Finally, we have the 200 Hamas fighters initially counted as murdered Israeli civilians (see part 1). They were found mangled and charred in close proximity to charred and mangled Israelis they had taken hostage. Some of these 200 fighters may have been toasted in individual combat or in their own vehicles, etc. Others would be driving hostages who would end up the same, or holding them inside buildings the IDF blasted. 20% of them should be the 40 or so killed in gun battles or by tank fire at the Dagan house, along with 13 hostages. They all wound up the same way, at the same place ... logically, for the same reason. </p><p>But the civilians, we're told, were hacked into tiny pieces and torched, and their houses perhaps blasted with RPGs, all before the army ever showed up to ... kill a bunch of terrorists without having to blast or burn anything? And then they forgot about it? Didn't they even have some idea how many they had killed, to subtract from the death toll? Of course they did. But the supposed lapse allowed Israel to claim the highest possible death toll early on, when it mattered most in forming opinions. Later, they revise it, brag about their transparency, and studiously ignore the lesson - the IDF probably mangled and charred ALL those people. </p><p>On the map above, one might notice the big red blob of deaths at the Re'im/Nova rave/electronic music festival - and the roads leading from it - some 364 deaths and just a few successful kidnappings in this open, sprawling killing field. What happened there? That's the topic of part 3.</p><p><b><a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/11/gunning-down-partygoers.html">Next: part 3: Gunning Down Partygoers?</a></b></p>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-8248354839735940522023-11-24T02:08:00.000-08:002023-11-26T12:02:18.269-08:00Which Israelis are "Making Up Stories?"<p><b>October 7 Massacre in Israel, part 1: Which Israelis are "Making Up Stories?"</b></p><p><b>November 24, 2023</b></p><p><b>1A) Introduction</b></p><p>This site has never promised to cover all "massacre marketing," and it hasn't done anything for some months. I was slow to decide on even this - massacre marketing by the State of Israel over the events of October 7. "Israel's 9/11" was used to justify its assault on and invasion of Gaza, which is definitely genocidal by at least some definitions (with some details unclear to me). Their attacks have killed an estimated 15-20,000 people so far, including Hamas fighters but mostly civilian and nearly half of them children. (<a href="https://euromedmonitor.org/en/article/5957/Friday-17-November:-Twenty-thousand-Palestinians-believed-to-be-killed-in-Israel%E2%80%99s-genocide-of-Gaza">EuroMed</a> - "Euro-Med Monitor estimated that at least 15,271 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed, including 3,561 women and 6,403 children"). Some half of North Gaza's housing has been destroyed, and around one million people are temporarily displaced, with Israel perhaps hoping to make that permanent. They seem to be dismantling and depopulating north Gaza, maybe in hopes of settling it as Israeli. </p><p>It could take a while to finish the job, depending what the job winds up being, and the Israeli people might need a lot of hate to see it through. October 7 and/or the propaganda surrounding it provided for that. </p><p>Partly from ignorance, I had no horse in this race to start. I'm certainly no fan of Israel under Netanyahu/Likud, but I also distrust Hamas. I imagine Israel is right to say they hide themselves among the people after their provocations, complicating military response and/or endangering civilians. But I couldn't say how widely they do this, and it seems Israel exaggerates this limited truth to pretend Hamas is in every building, freeing them to flatten the place. </p><p>So to start, I was half-inclined to believe that Hamas would provoke Israel with a gruesome slaughter as alleged. That still seems possible, to at least some extent. However, upon examining the claims and evidence in middling detail, I suspect most or all of the extreme allegations were fabricated, to help Israel justify its appalling plans. </p><p>Hamas fighters (terrorists) can be seen on videos, including their own body cameras, killing some civilians, reportedly beheading soldiers, and desecrating their bodies. As far as I've seen, they display a mix of hate and restraint that's bound to vary, <a href="https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1725726314173215173">Here (IDF on X)</a>: on body camera footage they threaten to kill an Israeli Arab "collaborator," but the worst the video captures is one fighter kicking the man in the face as another calms him down and has him handcuffed. <a href="https://twitter.com/FaresSaeb/status/1726695035842752839">Here</a>: on security camera footage, it seems 2 young women trying to flee are shot dead by a gunman, one after she drops as if begging for mercy. </p><p>Consider that Israel claims it killed about 1,000 of the attackers, maybe all of them equipped with cameras. <b>But I haven't seen even <i>a claim </i>that any of the gravest crimes - like rape, or beheading babies - has ever occurred before <i>any</i> camera. </b>That's likely because these things never happened. All after-the-fact evidence that's presented fails (see part 4), and so it says the same thing: these stories were probably just made up to sow more hate. </p><p>It's also clear now that the scale of Hamas' killing is distorted. At least <b>some and perhaps the vast majority of civilians killed that day (and in standoffs sometimes running 2 days after) were caused by the Israeli military itself - and not just by accident. </b>This emerging picture is not as clear as some think, and the reality is likely more mixed than "Hamas massacre" or "IDF false-flag." I suspect it's more of the latter, but what are suspicions really worth? </p><p>In the next 3 posts (still in progress), I'll consider the evidence presented and what it actually shows so the reader can form their own improved view. I've gathered some reports and debunks published by others, along with some critical review of the same, and some original observations. <span style="background-color: #f1c232;">In one case, I found strong clues suggesting a young woman was killed by Israeli helicopter fire, and also suggesting some twisted manipulation of the victim's corpse to show how she was "raped" and "burned alive" by Hamas.</span> I should probably lead with that strong medicine, but maybe just the mention here lets me start with this introduction and buys me time to finish the ordered approach I set out on, where that case comes up in part 3. </p><p><b>1B) 10/7 Death Toll</b></p><p>Concerns about Gaza civilian deaths under Israel's bombs are often met with the note that Palestinians, children included, basically deserve it for tending to support Hamas, voting for them years back, or even celebrating the 10/7 attacks (which they saw differently). Or some of them (the children) might be kind of innocent and their deaths are Hamas' fault alone for starting the war; the IDF is dropping the bombs killing them, but they <i>need </i>to do this, either to hit Hamas targets or just for revenge, and should never let up until Hamas is destroyed, however many Palestinians die or get chased away in the process (and to some, it's "the more the better."). Humanitarian concerns are for humans, and ever since some of them behaved inhumanly on 10/7, Palestinians cannot be considered human. This is a serious and driving trope is Israel right now. It's pretty scary. Netanyahu has invoked Amalek.</p><p>But after all, Hamas <i>did</i> start it by breaking a ceasefire with their provocative kidnappings and especially with their grisly massacres on the 7th, where as some say they murdered over 1,400 innocent civilians. </p><p>First, it seems people on both sides are confused about the death toll. Early counts grew with searches and resolving hostage standoffs to finally claim "At least 1,400 people were killed, many of them civilians, including children." (<a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/10/18/israel/palestine-videos-hamas-led-attacks-verified">HRW</a>) About 350 military, police and intelligence deaths were acknowledged, but it was claimed over 1,000 civilians were massacred, all by Hamas. Then it was revised down to "about 1,200" total by Nov. 10 (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-revises-death-toll-oct-7-hamas-attack-around-1200-2023-11-10/">Israel revises Hamas attack death toll to 'around 1,200' | Reuters</a>). As far as I can tell, this is close to a final number and it's probably a reliable count. The best source I have is: <a href="https://oct7map.com/">https://oct7map.com/</a> - an interactive site based around a map of the attack sites all around Gaza's periphery. This might be dated, but it says "The attacks claimed the lives of more than 1,194 individuals, of which 843 of the identified bodies are civilians." Some were still buried in rubble or missing, but this may be close to a final number. That leaves 351 military. Earlier reports had at least 340 active soldiers and intelligence officers killed. That squares pretty well.</p><p>As for that revision: Israeli ambassador Mark Regev recently explained to Mehdi Hassan - as an example of how transparent his government is being - how <b>some 200 of those dead were actually Hamas fighters so badly burned and disfigured, and in such proximity to badly burned and disfigured Israelis, that "we thought they were ours." </b><a href="https://twitter.com/QudsNen/status/1725472691589713993">Quds News Network on X: "Israel admits some 200 of the bodies they said were Israelis killed on October 7 turned out to be Hamas fighters. https://t.co/5mWfRZe4MF" / X (twitter.com)</a> We'll come back to this. </p><p>At least 843 killed civilians, broken down for reference: 364+ were killed at the Nova rave (updated count), ~55 were killed in and around the city of Sderot, ~424 were killed in the various Kibbutz attacks and scattered on the roads in between them. 100-130+ of those were at Be'eri, at least some of them "undoubtedly" killed by the IDF (see part 2 if you don't yet know about this, or the Gray Zone piece linked below), and ~300 died in the other kibbutz attacks combined.</p><p>There's <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-19/ty-article-magazine/israels-dead-the-names-of-those-killed-in-hamas-massacres-and-the-israel-hamas-war/0000018b-325c-d450-a3af-7b5cf0210000">another list at Ha'aretz</a> of Israelis or foreign civilians and Israeli military, killed anywhere that day <i>or since then </i>- "Over 1,300 Israelis, civilians and soldiers were killed ... in the atrocities of October 7 and the subsequent Israel-Hamas war." It's not complete, even for those confirmed/reported: 1,152 names when I checked, about 1/3 of them military, and some postdating 10/7. I estimate perhaps 200 victims of the day aren't included, for whatever reason. </p><p>I've seen this list used, several times now, to refute "40 beheaded babies" by showing there was just one (specified) baby listed, assuming that's all that was killed. That was true when I first checked (10 month old girl, killed in Be'eri), then it was revised next day to remove that entry and list no (specified) babies at all. So the list is not complete and, perhaps for privacy reasons, is specifically lacking in infants who were killed. I suspect a few were killed (5-10?), along with some toddlers ("babies" to some), maybe along with some older kids making 40 total? But they died in the disputed circumstances we'll be considering. </p><p>But it was the manner of killing, as reported, that unsettled so many, and opened some minds to consider genocide in Gaza a fit response. It turns out no one but British tabloids and the like ever said 40 babies were beheaded, in one village or in total (<a href="https://twitter.com/propandco/status/1725228347574145285">Propaganda and co on X</a> ). But killing children, some of them by beheading, killing adults in several ways, committing insanely brutal rape that breaks bones, raping children, torture, dismemberment and mutilation, fetus removal and execution, burning people alive ... these claims stand, supported by the Israeli government and accepted by its supporters worldwide.</p><p>But did Hamas really do all of that? Did they even do any of it? There is evidence to show something horrible clearly happened to a lot of people, so what else could it be? </p><p><b>1C) Which Israelis are "Making up Stories"?</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYmRX7V8eE5muZ_5nas0aAZ4Rk1dgOPhSTELBgACjeK4LwcLxXHWMrYXu5PkEMyKCvC3CzAPFMSCQCR6fbYMO5GOLBhplO_BP7eH6lgV8Aeb915TbSLwl6fCVY0M4SvUucDqsSiD9aUIBpw8yBel91AzC484ntaaHz7vXbsU0q5gVRF5DLI07V8N0aMcQd/s1193/Screenshot%20(5131).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="1193" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYmRX7V8eE5muZ_5nas0aAZ4Rk1dgOPhSTELBgACjeK4LwcLxXHWMrYXu5PkEMyKCvC3CzAPFMSCQCR6fbYMO5GOLBhplO_BP7eH6lgV8Aeb915TbSLwl6fCVY0M4SvUucDqsSiD9aUIBpw8yBel91AzC484ntaaHz7vXbsU0q5gVRF5DLI07V8N0aMcQd/w400-h248/Screenshot%20(5131).png" width="400" /></a></div>Tireless pro-Palestine activist Roger Waters - Pink Floyd himself if anyone is (and no one is) - gave an interview with Glen Greenwald for his November 1 episode of System Update. They discussed Waters' alleged antisemitism in light of the recent events in Israel and Gaza. His denial was sort of rambling and probably not convincing to the critics, but FWIW I believe him. To the same effect, he suggested the 10/7 attacks were perhaps allowed for some reason (but he was only "a little bit down that rabbit hole") and the Hamas massacre story "was thrown all out of proportion by Israelis making up stories about beheading babies." <a href="https://rumble.com/v3t2das-system-update-174.html">Interview With Roger Waters: Musical Genius, Political Activist, Accused Anti-Semite | SYSTEM UPDATE #174 (rumble.com)</a><p></p><p>Israeli I24 News ran a critical review by Philip Podolsky November 07 that explained how Waters is "notorious for his anti-Israel vitriol" and stands accused of "antisemitic abuse." This is meant to shed light on why Waters now accuses 'Israelis' of <a href="https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel-at-war/1699350277-roger-waters-says-israelis-making-up-stories-about-october-7?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1699358132">'making Up Stories' About October 7</a>. (Podolsky seems to forget how he has even dressed as a Nazi-ish guy on stage, and wrote songs about killing "queers," "coons," joint-smokers, people with "spots" ... and of course Jews. And he had a pig with Shell oil logo on it, etc.) </p><p>He's, like, a modern-day holocaust denier. Podolsky grants Waters saying "If war crimes were committed, I condemn them," but notes how he followed this by "casting further doubt on whether those took place." Though his reading adds or subtracts little from the evidence in question, Waters' doubts are valid, and his citations are good. </p><p></p><blockquote><i>"There may have been individual things," he said, referring to a report in Grayzone, which denied much of the evidence Israel has produced from the scenes of the massacre. Grayzone is a widely discredited site known for airing propaganda for the Russian and Syrian regimes, including the denial of Damascus's chemical weapons attacks on civilian population." </i></blockquote><p></p><p>The Gray Zone has refuted Syrian chemical attack claims partly based on amazing analysis I was involved with, pairing ballistic readings with video geolocation to essentially prove, in 2021, Western-backed (and Israeli-backed) Islamic militants launched whatever chemical attack there was on August 21, 2013. <a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2021/07/26/syrian-insurgents-guilty-of-red-line-2013-sarin-chemical-attack-study-finds/">Syrian insurgents guilty of ‘red line’ 2013 sarin chemical attack, study finds - The Grayzone</a> One way or another, they - and not Syria's government - caused the several hundred to 1,000+ civilians deaths, including hundreds of children, that occurred just then. Israel has never cared much about the truth of that incident. Invested as they are in toppling the "Assad regime," they'll accept or help fabricate any accusation against them and use it as a pretext to bomb some airport there, at the same time absolving and encouraging genocidal terrorist massacres. </p><p>For some reason, I24 did not link its readers to the Gray Zone piece or name the author, Max Blumenthal - "my good friend," as Waters calls him - who can't as easily be called antisemitic. But then Waters wasn't very specific, so I'm not even sure, but ... I think this is it, questioning Israel's evidence - great piece: <a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2023/10/27/israels-military-shelled-burning-tanks-helicopters/">October 7 testimonies reveal Israel’s military ‘shelling’ Israeli citizens with tanks, missiles - The Grayzone</a>, posted October 27. And note others had already made a similar case - e.g. <a href="https://mondoweiss.net/2023/10/a-growing-number-of-reports-indicate-israeli-forces-responsible-for-israeli-civilian-and-military-deaths-following-october-7-attack/">MondoWeiss.net on Oct. 22</a>.</p><p>Podolsky also fails to relate its actual core argument; <b>Israelis were killed in their homes, but at least partly by their own military</b>, in a cynically disproportionate response. Anyone who reads the article can see it's based mostly on <b>reports from Israeli media citing survivors and military personnel involved in the events</b>. Therefore, Podolsky's and I24's implication is that <b><i>these Israelis</i> are making up stories</b>. The military command is telling it right, and anyone who says otherwise is either engaged in antisemitic smears or - if they're Israeli Jews themselves, well ... one way or another, they can't be trusted. </p><p>Here are the two Israeli stories, broadly speaking, one of which was "made up." </p><p><b>The story from Israeli civilian captives: </b>noting that others tell different stories (see below), that either story could be untrue, told under terrorist duress or to bolster Israel's case, and that both stories could be true to some extent ... several accounts (many but not all included in the article in question) converge on a basic picture: the Hamas men were not brutal but polite for kidnappers, and seemed intent on taking captives peacefully for rational gain - they did not seem bent on murder, rape, torture or mutilation. <span style="background-color: #f1c232;">Most or all civilian deaths were - from what they saw - caused by powerful Israeli assaults that killed captors and captives alike.</span> I won't relate any of these accounts right here, but by topic over the next 3 posts. </p><p>This might sound like an insane development, but consider this is Israel and, as Blumenthal noted: </p><p><i></i></p><blockquote><i>"If Israel’s military had intentionally targeted areas where it knew the captives were held, its actions would have been consistent with Israel’s <b>Hannibal Directive</b>. The military procedure was established in 1986 following the Jibril Agreement, a deal in which Israel traded 1150 Palestinian prisoners for three Israeli soldiers. Following heavy political backlash, the Israeli military drafted a secret field order to prevent future kidnappings. The proposed operation drew its name from the Carthaginian general who chose to poison himself rather than be held captive by the enemy."</i></blockquote><p></p><p>In the few cases this directive was followed, the suicide was "assisted". One possible example occurred that day, at the overrun Erez crossing, where the commander called in a strike to destroy the still-occupied base, to kill the terrorists and/or prevent the capture of any troops (<a href="https://mondoweiss.net/2023/10/a-growing-number-of-reports-indicate-israeli-forces-responsible-for-israeli-civilian-and-military-deaths-following-october-7-attack/">MondoWeiss</a>). </p><p>Another example from the same day was at the police station in Sderot, a city militants couldn't take like the villages, with some 50-60 scattered, perhaps targeted killings, but including several seniors killed at a bus stop. The only hostage situation that formed here was at the police station. <a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/israel-admits-it-killed-its-own-at-nova-music-festival">The Cradle</a> reports: "Hamas fighters had taken over the local police station, and were holding Israeli police captive inside. Both the Hamas fighters and Israeli police were killed when the Israeli army fired tank shells at the police station, killing everyone. Israeli forces then bulldozed the station." <a href="https://oct7map.com/">Mapping the Massacres (oct7map.com)</a> says, in contrast, the terrorists killed "approximately 30 individuals" at the station before the IDF arrived and "regained control of the situation, neutralizing some 35 terrorists in the process," and apparently killing no one else. Just 8 red dots are shown, and 8 names of those "killed on duty" are given. Does the "approximately 30" deaths include "some 35 terrorists?" Once IDF was there, <b>"the Southern District commander ordered the event to be ended at all costs - even if it meant destroying the station. </b>Just after 22:00, a bulldozer began to demolish the station. This triggered heavy exchanges of fire, and the station began to burn. After a prolonged battle, the police announced that control of the station had been regained." No survivors are mentioned.</p><p>As I gather, the Hannibal option is usually meant for military personnel facing abduction, not police, or civilians. But extending it to civilians would have the same basic logic - prevent terrorists from getting any advantage from kidnapping Israeli citizens. Instead of take-no-prisoners, it's an allow-no-prisoners policy. You don't have to bother with exchanging anything for their freedom if they're simply dead from the start. And anyway, 10/7 was a case where both civilians and military were abducted - any effort to differentiate who to kill might fail, and widely. </p><p>IDF Reserve pilot Col. Nof Erez doesn't seem to have direct, inside knowledge of the day's events, but when interviewed by Ha'aretz, he said "the Hannibal directive was probably deployed" for this hostage situation, but it was not the isolated kidnapping they had trained for; "What we saw here was a MASS HANNIBAL. There were many openings in the fence, thousands of people in many different vehicles, both with hostages and without hostages. It was an impossible mission to identify and to do what [the pilots] did." In such a chaotic situation, they would almost surely kill some hostages and perhaps even civilians fleeing from the terrorists. <a href="https://twitter.com/WarWatchs/status/1726671271017013494">https://twitter.com/WarWatchs/status/1726671271017013494</a></p><p>The IDF would deny the killings in such a case, as much as possible blaming the enemy, and so the killings would add propaganda value - there's an actual <i>motive</i> to kill civilians "in the crossfire" or "Hannibalize" them, even in large numbers. They could re-brand every arbitrary insult of the blasts as some bizarre Hamas torture, as it seems they have done. People get much angrier over a massive and grisly terrorist massacre of children than over some calculated abductions.</p><p><b>The story from the Israeli military: </b>Hamas militants abducted some locals but opted to brutally massacre most of those they ran across, committing every act of barbarism short of perhaps cannibalism. They say this all happened before the IDF arrived to eliminate the terrorists with heavy weaponry. The terrorists might have tried using the captives as human shields hoping to prevent attack, but the IDF did attack - they'd have us believe - without killing any of the captives. All harm that was caused to them can be assumed from Hamas, who had already hacked and burned everyone available in the crudest and cruelest way possible, in "ISIS fashion," leaving them no human shields to even try working with. That, of course, is because Palestinians are inhuman beasts full of hate and lacking in foresight, and Israel would be right to be inhuman back, to kill thousands of kids in Gaza as they flatten the place and re-populate it with God's chosen people. (The last part is just sort of implied.)</p><p>The same basic story also comes from some survivor/witnesses, like Dani Fux (second-hand source: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/massacre-on-kibbutz-beeri/), with a sort of vague overview of events as witnessed from a hiding spot in the attic, emphasizing a curiously explicit acceptance of a "Hannibal" ending consistent with the story he and the IDF deny: </p><p><i></i></p><blockquote><i>"The terrorists went from door to door, abducted people or killed them. Sometimes they only killed. Sometimes they took the kids and killed the parents, sometimes the other way around.” ... Dani had a handgun and he and his parents agreed that they would use it if they were detected by the terrorists. <b>They would die in all likelihood under that scenario, the family agreed, but “we would not be taken prisoner.”</b></i></blockquote><p></p><p>So even if the army did wind up killing some people, maybe it was for the best. Nothing is worse than being taken alive by those Muslims, who might skin you alive or rape you to death, or just create a disadvantage for Israel ... as it continues trying to keep its people safe from genocide ... here, perhaps, by killing its people ... to justify some revenge genocide ... that could spark some revenge genocide later ... maybe requiring some "final solution" because, as they say, "never again."</p><p><b>1D) Discrediting the Messenger, Killing the Message</b></p><p>Philip Podolsky at I24 knows the playbook - attack the messenger instead of the message. You accept the military story and any similar reports, and ignore the discrepant stories from Israeli survivors ... until Pink Floyd and the Crazy Zone cite them. Then you blame them and "antisemitism" for inventing what could be the ugly, uncomfortable truth. It's the truth that the Netanyahu regime fears, and those who know it best ... some would be involved in the crime and would mainly keep quiet as ordered. Some saw part of the story and have told it, while others are blockaded inside Gaza, and the best witnesses are of course dead. There are still accounts to be heard, but we might not get to hear them for some time.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgml3n8GaaHQYzMn58kZgpgWQdvnp8bJpp59rzKuCNDPc6aM9zcZ2KT6QVE-uD7OCxxnmvhqS2YCk0W1M-jB7YVHPznIc8q0u85-85gspwUm5CXdjNy-hhUnn8I4FJxSntq9Ayqu58a3LCcwfmTbofgJqe-aJZjIANRuvqTsaSK0ho0sTaJSL3TXVszZchk/s620/Lifshitz.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="413" data-original-width="620" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgml3n8GaaHQYzMn58kZgpgWQdvnp8bJpp59rzKuCNDPc6aM9zcZ2KT6QVE-uD7OCxxnmvhqS2YCk0W1M-jB7YVHPznIc8q0u85-85gspwUm5CXdjNy-hhUnn8I4FJxSntq9Ayqu58a3LCcwfmTbofgJqe-aJZjIANRuvqTsaSK0ho0sTaJSL3TXVszZchk/s320/Lifshitz.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>Israel first rejected an offer from Hamas to free two older women abducted on the 7th, in exchange for nothing, before agreeing and then regretting it. Yocheved Lifshitz, an 85-year-old Israeli peace activist, and her 79-year-old friend, Nurit Cooper were filmed having tea with their captors and, upon release to the people with the Red Cross, Lifshitz shook hands and wished peace on one of them as they parted. <p></p><p></p><p>As Blumenthal adds in relating this: "During a press conference that day, she recounted the humane treatment she received from her captors." She never mentioned witnessing any kind of massacre by either side. But then she and some 70-80 others were presumably whisked away from kibbutz Nir Oz before a battle ensued there. In the end, the remaining terrorists were killed, and some 27+ remaining civilians also wound up dead. She probably saw none of that. </p><p></p><p>It should be no surprise that, as Blumenthal notes, "The spectacle of Lifshitz’s release was treated as a propaganda disaster by the Israeli government’s spinmeisters, with officials grumbling that <b>allowing her to speak publicly was a grave “mistake.” </b>They probably prefer that she had been killed back at Nir Oz. Allowing Lifshitz, Yasmin Porat, Tuval Escapa, and the others to speak publicly is all a “mistake.” The truth they help reveal complicates the genocidal war effort. In the current climate, we can expect pressure to come down on publishers to prevent more stories from emerging.</p><p>Like others have, Blumenthal contrasts this regret with the Times of Israel report that “The army is concerned that further hostage releases by Hamas could lead the political leadership to delay a ground incursion or even halt it midway.”" And he compares it also with the Hamas claim - unverified as far as I know - that Israel had killed “almost 50” of the 240 hostages with its missile strikes, even before October was out. It seems like they'd still rather kill those people while killing more Gazans than to have them freed, in exchange for fuel, for a ceasefire, for any Palestinian prisoners, any more PR points for the enemy, or even just to get its own people back. </p><p>This would be consistent with a policy implied above - it was better to have those civilians killed - so long as that can be blamed on Hamas - than to be captured and used to Hamas' benefit. </p><p>Late add, perhaps to move: "An anonymous group of Israelis has written an open letter calling for an independent investigation. But Israel seems unlikely to allow this, and appears to be covering up the evidence, burying some bodies before they have been identified." (<a href="https://mondoweiss.net/2023/10/an-open-letter-to-israelis-from-israelis-we-deserve-the-truth-about-october-7/">https://mondoweiss.net/2023/10/an-open-letter-to-israelis-from-israelis-we-deserve-the-truth-about-october-7/</a> - via <a href="https://electronicintifada.net/content/evidence-israel-killed-its-own-citizens-7-october/41156">The evidence Israel killed its own citizens on 7 October | The Electronic Intifada</a>)</p><p><b>Next: <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/11/who-was-behind-kibbutz-massacres.html">Part 2: Who was Behind the Kibbutz Massacres?</a></b></p>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-20702772147563142372023-08-31T14:12:00.013-07:002023-09-02T15:54:18.861-07:00Ghouta Report Debunk Efforts: Still Not Refuted & More from Marschke<p><b>August 31, 2023</b></p><p><b>(rough - edits pending)</b></p><p><b>Still Un-Refuted </b></p><p>I got sidetracked with this so it's now been 10 years <i>and 10 days</i> since the Ghouta chemical massacre in the wee hours of 21 August, 2013. The Syrian military allegedly fired rockets and shells containing sarin nerve gas on opposition-held areas in the Damascus suburbs of East and West Ghouta, killing hundreds of civilians - reportedly as many as 1,100, 1,429, or even 1,700. (I can attest to a visual minimum of around 500, mostly geolocated to Ghouta, and I suspect the true number is around or over 1,000) It was the deadliest chemical weapons attack of the war or ever, aside from Halabjah in 1988. </p><p>And yet, as many now complain, no one has been held directly to account or adequately punished, assuming this would be the Syrian government. They did already have to surrender their CW program, at least supposedly, to avoid US military strikes, and military aid to the insurgents increased due to the incident, among other detrimental effects. But none of the economic sanctions saddling the Syrian people, for example, were directly in response to this attack, but that could well change. No arrest warrants have been issued over it. And of course Assad was not deposed - there was no "ultimate price" paid. Folks are saying that needs to change. </p><p>The always-amazing Aaron Maté recently <a href="https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1693642783108579369">reminded his followers</a> on Twitter (now "X") "Today is 10th anniversary of the Ghouta chemical massacre in Syria. US blamed Syrian gov't, but <b>all evidence points to sectarian death squad rebels. </b>That's why Obama didn't bomb. There are Western officials who know more about Ghouta than has been publicly disclosed. Just as the OPCW leaks exposed the Douma deception, perhaps they will find a way to tell the truth about Ghouta." </p><p>He followed with a shorth thread, <a href="https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1693643898524942426">concluding it with this note</a>: "A 2021 open-source study from @MichaKobs , @CL4Syr and others traced all missile impact locations in Ghouta back to the most likely launch spot where they all intersected: a small area within insurgent-controlled territory. No one has refuted it."</p><p>As one involved in that study (I'm CL4Syr), I can boast that this study (<a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2021/06/2021-ghouta-sarin-attack-reports.html">embodied in TWO reports</a>) is not perfect but actually pretty damn amazing. The material writes itself with the unfolding of reality, which is apparently pretty damn amazing - we're just there to transcribe it. Improvements can and have been made, but it remains the definitive work on the E. Ghouta volcano rocket attack. </p><p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OeglAooSjVQ/YMfe0WE2_XI/AAAAAAAALQU/b6Epg300l2MspdBfCWHKC0tXs6m65wWSACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Ghouta_Angles_Perspective_labeled.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="355" data-original-width="640" height="356" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OeglAooSjVQ/YMfe0WE2_XI/AAAAAAAALQU/b6Epg300l2MspdBfCWHKC0tXs6m65wWSACNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h356/Ghouta_Angles_Perspective_labeled.png" width="640" /></a></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-__6acNzMh_M/YMe_1IzPQBI/AAAAAAAALQM/nKe8cEUb6cgrUfXYqi3MS7EHmqtXezD2gCNcBGAsYHQ/s1119/report_GSA_cover.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1119" data-original-width="894" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-__6acNzMh_M/YMe_1IzPQBI/AAAAAAAALQM/nKe8cEUb6cgrUfXYqi3MS7EHmqtXezD2gCNcBGAsYHQ/w320-h400/report_GSA_cover.png" width="320" /></a></div>A few people have disputed it, some of them many times, in many ways. But, although they pretend otherwise, they've disputed it very poorly and no one has come close to <i>refuting</i> the study. <p>Here at this blog I assessed the initial efforts to discredit it (<a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2021/06/ghouta-reports-first-debunk-efforts.html">general</a>) (<a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2021/07/ghouta-2013-reports-scott-lucas-debunk.html">Prof. Scott Lucas in some detail</a>). These were mainly irrelevant ad-hominem attacks, suggestions that we were bad people so our work was probably all wrong, or whatever. Essentially: "the findings could be true, for all we care, but these are such bad people with such dubious motives and characters - [we were called "Nazis"] - that just to spite them, <b>you should go ahead and assume it's all wrong, or just refuse to even care.</b> Take the risk of approving and continuing the coverup of this crime - the deliberate chemical mass-murder of several hundred Syrian citizens, including hundreds of women and children. Don't even worry how likely that risk is."</p><p>Such people are keenly aware that "Assad" and his "regime" and the people of Syria that rely on them need to be held accountable and punished further - punish them more - steal more oil & wheat, forbid rebuilding or any business interactions or any normalization, then maybe bring the war back in. To that end, guilt for as many crimes of the war as possible needs to be kept on Assad, by whatever fake news stories or backroom deals that requires, - especially as the alternative blame would tend to fall on foreign-backed "opposition" fighters and terrorists. Why complicate that imperative with any size a question? </p><p>And a question the size we offer ... these people don't want that in anyone's mind, nor any of its associated details. Discussing the evidence just breathes life into it. Better to embargo the evidence into silence, or you could say better to "suffocate the truth," Put it in a bag, perhaps mark it "Nazi," or something to that effect, and throw it in the river.</p><p>A few started to challenge the actual evidence early on (see general post), but not very well, considering the many supporting layers of it in our study. German (I think) regime-change activist Kostja Marschke is an extra-prolific critic who does engage the primary evidence, and at least pretends this is what drives him to the familiar blanket derision. His opinions don't matter much, but some. He's no slouch when it comes to declaring fraud over our work, even including a few valid questions raised along with dozens of bogus ones, with a pretty obvious gatekeeper kind of agenda. </p><p>But his efforts have offered more passed tests than we've gotten from everyone else combined, and merited <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/08/ghouta-report-debunk-efforts-kostja.html">a whole post</a> already, besides mentions in the first debunks post, and now this post as well. Technically, he's been at it for years. Just recently, he's raised several bogus points based on imagining hard facts from unclear pixelated satellite views (grass where there should be concrete, no grass where there should be), reading some 3D models too literally and pretending these win some conflicts with the cases they're made to illustrate, not to replace, and other stupid tricks to invent all kinds of supposed fatal flaws. </p><p>He never stops to re-assess the balance of evidence in light of each debunk, pretending there never was any evidence except the one point he pretends to disprove at the moment, and maybe for comparison, a few others he remembers casually chuckling over. He'll say our "entire theory relies on" X which he finds wrong. And it also relies solely on Y, and on Z, he says at other times, and separately it relies totally on AA, BB, CC, and so on. Each basis is clearly and incredibly wrong, he says, with frequent typed indications of laughter. He makes a repeated show of kicking each solitary support out from under us, always supposedly knocking us down, when we've supposedly <i>been down </i>from blow 1. We should be ground deep into the dirt by now, to hear Kostja boast. Yet we remain worth all the effort to pretend, over and over, to have finally disrupted our actual, upright position.</p><p>Aaron Maté - in <a href="https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1688987316545581056">another recent reminder</a> - had noted how "No one has refuted" our study. Marschke <a href="https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1688991785920458752">replied</a> that it is "one of the most laughable "studies" ever produced" and essentially refutes itself. This baseless hyperbole is typical of his whole performance. The proof, as they say, is in the pudding.</p><p><b><span>Two Top Reasons</span></b></p><p>Marschke selected just 2 favorite arguments to show Aaron's readers how "laughable" our work is:</p><p><b>"1) The evidence for the field being "insurgent-controlled" is that a tank "cautiously" moved in an allegedly surrounding area 15 months after the attack. That's it, that's the entirety of the "evidence" for that claim." </b>(<a href="https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1688991785920458752">post</a>)</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1689051969585815552">Also</a>: "This is exactly why I've blocked Kobs: He's a liar. Look at his reply to my rebuttal: He just simply lies about the date of the tank video (The only "evidence" from his "study" supposedly showing opposition control). Not disclosed in the "study" either, by the way."</p><p>There is no reason to "disclose" any "lie" about the video date. Co-author Michael Kobs said in a separate tweet that the video in question (from ANNA News) is from "August 24, 2013." I've said the same on a few occasions, following his lead on a point I hadn't followed. That was wrong, but we honestly misunderstood co-author Chris Kabusk's explanation, as accurately put in the report, citing a relevant date wrongly. </p><p>The video was posted about a year after the attack and might be recent or older - it compiles images of a whole military campaign to reclaim the wider area, running perhaps for months. But it shows damage to a certain building that, Kabusk decided and no one has disputed, did not exist yet in the August 23 Google Earth satellite view. So the video is from August 24, 2013 OR LATER, and perhaps months later. Someone more read-up on the course of the fighting could offer a decent guess for when, but it's not a pressing issue.</p><p>The salient point is the Syrian Arab Army was shooting towards this field from the north, as if opposition militants controlled the area, at some point<i> at least 3 days after the chemical attack. </i>That stands as evidence for opposition control on 21 August, although a longer time span would allow for possible back-and forth where the SAA - other details permitting - could have been in control of this field on the 21st. </p><p>Marschke suggests regime troops might have had control or access on the night of the attack - but of course this field had nothing to do with the attack (right?), so ... it just shows how wrong we are to make such a claim based on one video of unclear date. </p><p><b>But it was never the only evidence. </b>Michael and I got sloppy with this point partly because it was never major or central like Marschke pretends. It was just a bonus illustration of <b>the well-informed and generally-agreed situation that Marschke is pretty well alone in questioning.</b> The fact that he doesn't seem to realize that makes me feel I really wasted too much time on this poser.</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/MichaKobs/status/1689034853386240000">Michael replied</a>:<b> </b>"I love such attacks from behind a block. But your claim is BS. For eight years, hordes of investigators (including Eliot Higgins) have investigated the Ghouta attack, but you're the first to question the line of demarcation. Do you have any valid reason for this?" I think Kostja un-blocked Michael then - some debate ensued. Michael showed Charles Wood's 2014 map as used in both our reports and <a href="http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/File:JobQab.jpg">available at A Closer Look on Syria</a>, but with approximate launch spot added. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjXZEEHTnMvGkJNNALPIALAaTmmwH14jmJhgkQZBGS4pdVfjJCHbfJA2Xewc0na0uyBD559PAVTW8rNObYU27Ko5TShj8qK7RzoXgYUHjc-uGSZLN29vsNbUYGIpLoVP7t3SmwrHRGIrCb-Fp-ztvkqWpssHjtz9vCejXO4kMp7nzqY00QfIgfZ0R6M3sE/s1226/Ghouta_Wood_Map.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1226" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjXZEEHTnMvGkJNNALPIALAaTmmwH14jmJhgkQZBGS4pdVfjJCHbfJA2Xewc0na0uyBD559PAVTW8rNObYU27Ko5TShj8qK7RzoXgYUHjc-uGSZLN29vsNbUYGIpLoVP7t3SmwrHRGIrCb-Fp-ztvkqWpssHjtz9vCejXO4kMp7nzqY00QfIgfZ0R6M3sE/w640-h434/Ghouta_Wood_Map.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p>This map was based on numerous primary sources (published maps, reports, videos (notably by ANNA News), satellite imagery). As Wood explained for <a href="http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/File:Ghouta_Mapping_to_Accountability_Final_6-23-21.pdf">my report</a>: “Contact lines are indications based on insurgent and ANNA videos and my training in basic infantry tactics. Narrow contact lines between Police College and Qaboun, and Syronics and Qaboun are an estimate based on no reported serious damage to either institution.”</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sNFUyIxlP1Q/YRO8T3N2ahI/AAAAAAAALmk/eZ-TMmfymrIM2IgJldsC_MdhXpiUGTyXgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1127/map%2Bbellingcat%2Bcontrol.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="711" data-original-width="1127" height="202" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sNFUyIxlP1Q/YRO8T3N2ahI/AAAAAAAALmk/eZ-TMmfymrIM2IgJldsC_MdhXpiUGTyXgCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/map%2Bbellingcat%2Bcontrol.png" width="320" /></a></div>The Eliot Higgins/Bellingcat take was based on similar study of the same open-source evidence, combined it on the map in almost totally the same exact way. Bellingcat excludes this field from their green island of government control in exactly the same way Wood's map did. <div><a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2021/08/rocket-man-some-government-held-firing.html">Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Rocket Man: Some Government-Held Firing Spot or Other (libyancivilwar.blogspot.com)</a><p>The only real difference between these maps is in the upper part of black-dash area on Wood's map. This had tanks present on 23 August (Google Earth satellite view), likely a new development amid a fast-moving offensive that only started on the 20th. Bellingcat maps assume a presence here already on the 21st while Wood and I doubt it, although it is fairly possible, and likely enough in my opinion. </p><p>That minor dispute is only somewhat near our field in question. <b>Neither map includes the field in question as government-held. </b>This isn't gospel or certain fact, but a well-informed guess, with the disputed ANNA video just going to support that this field was rebel-held that night, and for some time after, probably continuously.</p><p>This "entirety of the evidence" claim is so stupid and easy to disprove I suspect it's no conscious deception - Marschke just wasn't paying good attention. He saw the note that this was the only video we had so close to the field itself, took it to that to mean it was the only evidence there was regarding the local control situation. He should know better by now, if he knows this case like he pretends to, after years of supposedly disproving us over it. </p><p><b>"2) The methodology on how the trajectories were "measured" by the study is laughable, too.</b> Investigators on the ground couldn't measure the impact direction, but Kobs tried to do it using the size of bricks. Lol." <a href="https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1688992180164001793">https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1688992180164001793</a></p><p>When I asked what he meant by "couldn't measure" - he meant the 2 sites out of 3 they visited in E. Ghouta but did no measure for, finding it "pointless," as he put it - not exactly impossible. https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1692495054252728478 </p><p>They actually said the other 2 sites “do not present physical characteristics allowing a successful study of the trajectories followed by the rockets involved, due to the configuration of the impact places."” We found one impact to an apartment wall and balcony extremely vague, but the other on a rooftop more useful, pointing northwest - and the investigators apparently agreed somewhat, citing it to Joby Warrick as if they had used it to find the northwest firing area. https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2013_553.pdf</p><p><a href="https://www.newsweek.com/2021/03/12/syrians-executed-most-deadly-chemical-weapons-attack-generations-un-inspectors-there-1572442.html">The Syrians Executed the Most Deadly Chemical Weapons Attack in Generations—With U.N. Inspectors There (newsweek.com)</a></p><p>But this brick issue refers to the garden wall impact investigators never even looked at (above, Wall 2, in magenta). Using a brick as a handy measure works fine when you're looking at basic proportions to set a basic angle for mapping purposes. The rocket impact in the ground is about 3 bricks right of where the rocket punched through the wall, and about 1.8 bricks out from the wall. The actual brick size doesn't matter - the proportion is roughly 3 to 1.8 (also = 5:3) of <i>whatever</i> unit. </p><p>People on the ground could do it better, but no one did, so this is the best we can do (Michael's work, and I follow and agree). It's not exact, but pretty good - a visual reading that sets an approximate angle that, like the others, points back roughly to the same field. Marschke doesn't even explicitly challenge the measure itself, or venture his own measure or method, Is it more like a 2:1 angle? Determined how? He doesn't care. It points to "hold Assad accountable" and it's politically biased and "insane" to look for yourself and find any differently. </p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1692521311300444658">He</a>: "Just listen to yourself with your 1.8 bricks as measurement. Listen to yourself and consider what a person who isn't incredibly politically motivated would think about this. It might explain your disagreements with [UN investigator Åke] Sellström."</p><p>Me: "Any person who wants to form a basic idea of what happened. What's wrong about that? I'm s'posed to feel shame or something? F off w/such efforts. Shame. my dude." </p><p>He: "Any person who would want a "basic" idea" about what happened would start making insane measurements based on bricks?" He just couldn't explain what's actually insane about using a handy measurement unit to establish a basic proportional angle. He apparently doesn't even understand what we did here or how hollow his effort was. He just took another random chance to call us biased and insane. </p><p><b><span>"Disagreements with Sellström"</span></b></p><p>On the side with the above, another thread emerged - my "disagreements with Sellstrom." Pressed to specify, Marschke explained: "You haven't noticed how your entire theory relies on Sellström being wrong about both measured impact angles"</p><p>No ... it INCLUDES the UN-OPCW report being wrong about the one. The other doesn't matter. Maybe he thinks we argue the D30 howitzer was firing on Moadamiyah, and that both fronts of attack were from this one field. I'm not sure where he heard that, as we did discuss it some, but I don't see where it made it into the final collective report, and it sure isn't in my side report. I for one never agreed to this point, but then I didn't follow the evidence closely. Maybe "Sellstrom" was wrong about that angle and maybe it was fired from here. Marschke says "The D-30 doesn't support the caliber used in Moadamiyah," so not if he's correct. I really don't know and don't greatly care. My own take on our theory has no reliance or opinion on this point. </p><p>Anyway, our theory does include "Sellström" being wrong about the site 4 angle, and we definitely noticed that. We also noticed that he just signed off on it. The OPCW's representative, Mr. Scott Cairns, is a more likely source for the measurement and/or reporting of the rocket angle. And for what it's worth, <b>Marschke - once adequately pressed - has to agree that this reading IS wrong after all. </b>Did Marschke ever notice that his theory relies on "Sellström being wrong" about the same angle?</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1692550011970871615">Me</a>: "No more talk until after you've given some answer to the 8-degrees-blind-trust question. Review my latest tweets as needed. Otherwise, you've become completely pointless to me." </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHfCNiZR6mnkCceOUVTLs1A0AE8YJ8rNulcFi7c1y5itz33Y8ccbu5A6iEN2MjI0rtfq6BtJXC_UboFi2QtMyd0fw42Z1Tl3rsTqbrwE4Y2TKwovURisLwtDBvCyulvLJhVZPF1VlUiDP_yyG1nkU6E3pDFwlXy0Dg0qvpPwClRXnBuqwfgQl8Zj3A9eg2/s1147/Ghouta_8_degrees.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="493" data-original-width="1147" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHfCNiZR6mnkCceOUVTLs1A0AE8YJ8rNulcFi7c1y5itz33Y8ccbu5A6iEN2MjI0rtfq6BtJXC_UboFi2QtMyd0fw42Z1Tl3rsTqbrwE4Y2TKwovURisLwtDBvCyulvLJhVZPF1VlUiDP_yyG1nkU6E3pDFwlXy0Dg0qvpPwClRXnBuqwfgQl8Zj3A9eg2/w640-h276/Ghouta_8_degrees.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>I've asked him several times to affirm or refute this alleged reading or to comment on his ally Eliot Higgins doing both. Until this point, Marschke had ignored the requests to press his urgent interrogation about a supposed shadow or something.</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1692561811982193101">begin reply</a>: "...As for your question: <b>I don't think that angle is either 8° or 39°."</b> </p><p>That's something I can my teeth into, finally. He thinks everyone was wrong until he had his layman's look. How clever! He gets to maintain we're wrong, even as he admits <i>so was the UN-OPCW investigation</i> - or at least he agrees that the printed and visible angles clearly do not match. Marschke hesitated for a while, but finally agreed his theory <i>also</i> includes Sellström being wrong. It's OK for him, he assumes, because he's still blaming "Assad" like good people do. He doesn't see a "conspiracy" to frame Assad. And neither do we, for sure. We admit it might be some coincidence in which they published an angle 30 degrees wrong that, intersected with their other angle, indicated a regime-controlled artillery base many sources like HRW and NYT pushed at the attack origin. It was a handy political effect, but possibly achieved on accident.</p><p>Kostja Marschke is not the first regime-changer to grudgingly or mutably acknowledge the fact of this angle mismatch. As related at <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2021/08/rocket-man-just-blindly-trust-un-azimuth.html">Rocket Man: Just Blindly Trust the "UN Azimuth"</a>, Bellingcat founder Eliot Higgins did as much in at least two comments from January, 2014, having seen all the images and some views of a quality 3D model produced by Chris Kabusk: "the UN azimuth for one of the rockets doesn't match the 3D model on those maps, seems 50 degrees off to the north." - "Based off the geolocated munitions the point of origin is from the north (even the UN one they said was from the NW)"</p><p>By September, Bellingcat was in effect and, perhaps coincidentally, Higgins had changed his tune. He seemed to be in basic agreement with Kabusk, until he noted this new estimate added to his emerging picture of NW origins, in fact near the site of an August 24 sarin attack on SAA troops - as the likely spot we identified in 2021 is. This had to be sitting poorly with Higgins. The overall angle, as Chris put it, is "like UN's presumed flight path but off a bit and 1.5-2.5km ranges." Higgins replied incredulously: <b>"You still think the wall Volcano was measured wrong by the UN?"</b> He was perplexed, if not appalled, to hear the real angles described as "off a bit" from what the trusted "UN" had reported. It's as if the reading had been shown correct somewhere since January, but that can hardly be. Higgins was insisting on deference to something he knew to be false. He would later accept praise from others for "replicating" the UN-OPCW finding with his open-source work that always pointed more to the north. And it was never very good - most of the good parts were copied from Kabusk (and 'til recently containing one of his errors we've since corrected).</p><p>Ok, back to Marschke. He gave some explanation for his disgreement with Sellstrom and everyone. </p><p></p><blockquote><p>"Why do I think that? The shadow of the rocket...is at an [angle] > 90 degrees relative to the wall. As a layman, [I would] think the sun would've had to come from an almost orthogonal direction relative to the rocket to achieve that, given how small the shadows of the inspectors are. Where did the sun come from, though?"</p><p>"That's tough to say, given that we don't have the [exact] time the video was taken. But there's a clue: We can see the inspectors take a soil sample a few seconds later. Only two soil samples from the report match that, taken at 14:34 and 14:38, respectively."</p><p>"That also explains why there's not much of a shadow from the wall.</p><p>It also passes my eye test better than your angle which, needless to say, is quite clownishky [sic] measured."</p><p>"Now, does that say definitely where the rockets come from? No." </p></blockquote><p></p><p>He was too responsible to specify an area or direction, of course, based on such limited information. But what WOULD his angle say? I read him wrong in haste, thinking he saw the rocket as roughly perpendicular to the wall like its shadow was. I had some laughs about that, then read it more carefully. <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/grad/solcalc/">ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory - Global Radiation and Aerosols (noaa.gov)</a> gives me, for August 24 at 2:34 PM a reverse azimuth (shadow angle on flat earth) about 27 degrees clockwise from north, or 20 deg clockwise from perpendicular with the wall. Orthogonal = at a right angle. A rocket orthogonal to that sunlight would be <b>about 20 deg. from parallel.</b> OK. I'm not sure how he reasoned it out, but that's actually not terrible. Not 8 or 39, but something like 20, right in between - just different enough to say no one got it right until Kostja had his look. Not even the trusted UN-OPCW inspectors.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvhPu4nt4UpnDAidbNGUPVEmkQcN6ZCwqgjv6dn-_yQaZKdOeH5GVjQ_Vn8cBt953EJSsi2Z-uI80ygsELjfNIllxLogK55H9c2VZTgIZgyiFYTCg5UJExpElhBHt_rOyalsI57uGkEvc9mj-_g16AT9S4aF_E5alj889RQoJeHp_PpiPM496kJazF7fe4/s490/Ghouta_trajectory_early_readings_compared_3.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="479" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvhPu4nt4UpnDAidbNGUPVEmkQcN6ZCwqgjv6dn-_yQaZKdOeH5GVjQ_Vn8cBt953EJSsi2Z-uI80ygsELjfNIllxLogK55H9c2VZTgIZgyiFYTCg5UJExpElhBHt_rOyalsI57uGkEvc9mj-_g16AT9S4aF_E5alj889RQoJeHp_PpiPM496kJazF7fe4/s320/Ghouta_trajectory_early_readings_compared_3.png" width="313" /></a></div>Our "clownish way" - "needless to say" - includes now at least 4 ways total, in broad agreement. Others had read higher, partly from shadow illusions and a sense of "almost perpendicular" - 50-75°. Eliot Higgins saw it off by about 50° from the UN angle, so around 58°, similar to WhoGhouta, Richard Lloyd, and Chris Kabusk. That was based partly on Kabusk's model (see above the Jan. 2014 tweets). He's one of us on the 2021 study, so that's one of our 4 methods - the fanciest, but not the best (dark blue wedge w/Eliot's take down the middle in yellow). I did a rough visual study (<a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/07/impact-site-number-4.html">see here</a>) that said it was definitely less than 48°, with no clear bottom (43-48 shown here) - it seemed everyone else had read it a bit high. Later (at least from my end) Michael's flight-line view got 38°, and I had to be a butt and refine it to 38.5 rounded to 39 in my side-report, with a fair +/- of one degree. </div><div><p></p><p>That's 3 ways. Just now I tried another method that occurred to me. The tail end is visible at a 45-ish angle. With the wall running basically ahead, the circular tail would appear at a 2:1 vertical-horizontal ratio at a proper 45° angle and 1:1 ratio if parallel and seen from behind. 1.8:1 as seen is 1/5 of the way between those, so I reason 9°. less than a 45, or around 36 degrees. Exact 3D details maybe notwithstanding, that's probably close to the facts, and very close to the excellent measure we still go by. Again, the "precise" measurement endorsed by the trusted UN-OPCW was about EIGHT degrees from parallel. We'd see that rocket almost entirely from behind.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMbGYx9PXJpTQycQD-mZh9Voct4K_yFQYWPZ1XHAaBg9O6rnOGXbn8s6gI27cijuAcamI_uijXg4E9BJ58r0DhM-eFLyeckTYMm8mQI9VaNpewroeEnokHLdrDfeypzFIjxarxr6m-JNErEDyPdwmRBrQMBU6QHJdPRnk9w_YP4CkBBzL-hTDuk1reqqV-/s1200/Ghouta_site_4_perpendicular.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="741" data-original-width="1200" height="397" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMbGYx9PXJpTQycQD-mZh9Voct4K_yFQYWPZ1XHAaBg9O6rnOGXbn8s6gI27cijuAcamI_uijXg4E9BJ58r0DhM-eFLyeckTYMm8mQI9VaNpewroeEnokHLdrDfeypzFIjxarxr6m-JNErEDyPdwmRBrQMBU6QHJdPRnk9w_YP4CkBBzL-hTDuk1reqqV-/w640-h397/Ghouta_site_4_perpendicular.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEila0DFGnmX_SjDQS9-qH2WEgFIgxQiaC9hehYmgATbzNhVdAnsMfGrfJSXJlsn4YLa1fJ3L0E7Fq25VGTt4ckqlhIHsKILtGlWMOfj2jLkVR7gqEwj3eNOpGALAvZvsA84xRSjLX5w--WbIX_dr6XtGRBIe44oP4flF82H5K2EgL9iB5QPJUQEqRPeqFhl/s252/Ghouta_site_4_tail_view_36.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="188" data-original-width="252" height="299" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEila0DFGnmX_SjDQS9-qH2WEgFIgxQiaC9hehYmgATbzNhVdAnsMfGrfJSXJlsn4YLa1fJ3L0E7Fq25VGTt4ckqlhIHsKILtGlWMOfj2jLkVR7gqEwj3eNOpGALAvZvsA84xRSjLX5w--WbIX_dr6XtGRBIe44oP4flF82H5K2EgL9iB5QPJUQEqRPeqFhl/w400-h299/Ghouta_site_4_tail_view_36.png" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>Note this isn't a vertical object, ground not level - shadow cast too complex for me to read. Here's a modeling Michael did including the rocket angle we estimate and the angle of sun at the time, plus his estimate for mound shape, all seeming to explain the video view quite well. This might help understand why the "perpendicular shadow" is a misleading illusion.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikUdGRqBvzXTHD31Utg-2_yGryOehCdRt9yUyyH9RL7fJBgczMgrGg3crTx7tDmYwVqRyfFD589cs_6bgCZsl0RVDrH5tWJCYL6WLcQWj4LnaeDicbx2VIKS6aniTILKJnFMVtN6CMtn6jRMiI6Ak_sLfcdVNY_7Oehq8pYi8u2dMq-LW-cdpRXr-Osjwk/s900/F4BW72YWIAE-erj.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="900" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikUdGRqBvzXTHD31Utg-2_yGryOehCdRt9yUyyH9RL7fJBgczMgrGg3crTx7tDmYwVqRyfFD589cs_6bgCZsl0RVDrH5tWJCYL6WLcQWj4LnaeDicbx2VIKS6aniTILKJnFMVtN6CMtn6jRMiI6Ak_sLfcdVNY_7Oehq8pYi8u2dMq-LW-cdpRXr-Osjwk/w640-h322/F4BW72YWIAE-erj.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>We have 4 different ways to say the angle is 55-60, ~45, 38/39, or ~36. That's a wide spread, but this totally wins over a single quick estimate that lets Kostja Marschke pretend he's the first one to ever get it kind of right. This is, as I said, vague, disingenuous, and very poser-ish. I could ask Marschke to "Just listen to yourself with your "rocket is kind of at a right angle to the sun" and consider what person who isn't incredibly politically motivated would think about this. It might explain your disagreement with Sellström and everybody else." His theory relies on Sellström being wrong and, as he had just explained, such disagreements might be motivated by the same extreme political bias that has one undertaking crude measurements and making insanely bold claims. Huh. He might be onto something after all.</p><p>But he has a solution where the OPCW got it right and only Chris. Michael and I - along with Eliot Higgins, Richard Lloyd and WhoGhouta - got it wrong. Or actually, we got it right enough or not and it doesn't matter - the original angle was just as reported, and simply never seen. It's an article of faith. </p><p>As I follow, he suggests the inspectors must've measured 105/285° "precisely" with "no form of lateral bending." first, then pulled the rocket aside, leaving it aligned 30° different than before - or he thinks more like 12° - and coincidentally pointing to the same field 7 other rockets point to - or he thinks pointing to a different spot, when the rest all point ... wherever we don't say they do. And then all known images were taken after that strange manipulation - the original correct angle Kostja proposes was never seen. It's mythical. And the photos and videos where it's 30° different, after whatever change ... it still shows no form of lateral bending nor any sign I've noticed of the engine having been pulled from its original angle.</p><p>That sounds plain absurd, but he had, in fact, just imagined this as a way around the whole problem. </p><p><b>"The inspectors could've moved the rocket after measuring the azimuth, for example, to inspect the side of the warhead. That renders everything you and I said moot anyway."</b> <a href="https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1692581076395262063">https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1692581076395262063</a></p><p>It's a very imaginative solution that probably sounds soothing to his ears - it's all "moot", like it was just a dream. I bet he'll settle on it as the answer to this whole problem. Inspectors coincidentally MADE the tube wind up pointing to that field 2km away, even as 7 other rockets also point there. Oh, and the 7 others must've been moved around too, coincidentally to point back to the same spot, rather than to their actual origin(s), which ... </p><p>He'll decided that the firing spot can never be known. It's way too complex and stuff, and will remain a mystery where faith alone matters. Kostja Marschke knows what good people should believe, and how that belief should "moot" the facts of the 3D world. Of course, we inhabit the 3D world, and are somehow interconnected with everyone else in it, and also with some hundreds of Syrian civilians who <i>no longer inhabit it</i>, after this <i>not-so-mysterious crime</i> 10 years and 10 days ago claimed their lives. </p><p><b><span>Done Talking</span></b></p><p>Me: "bump on this as more interesting. @KostjaMarschke what angle were you thinking, when you decided to question Sellstrom & everyone? 8 deg. from parallel would show the tail end at 1.2:1 ratio, and we see 1.8:1, = ~36 deg. or roughly what we got looking right down the tube (38/39)"</p><p>Marschke: "Nope, no more talk until we're done with the field."</p><p>We would never be done with the field until at least one of us stopped talking, and I was already just about ready to quit the game anyway. So I replied:</p><p>"Well I'm done with that, so we're done. I have you at something vague and disingenuous where you're the first person to get it right, but not specified, where the shadows and time mattered somehow, and you were apparently clueless. I'm good w/that." (I figured out the best reading, above, after that comment.)</p><p>He: "Of course you're done with that" because he was totally winning, listing absurdities in our work he claimed to have proven. </p><p>Me: "yep, your big ol' list I finally got bored with. Go play with that."</p><p>He: "Of course, you're not out of arguments, you're just "bored"."</p><p>Me: "just sick of it, for a bit before that ultimatum. I know it could go on forever and you'll always "win." Let's just cut to it. You "win" as always."</p></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-78779925886576692152023-08-08T04:23:00.003-07:002023-08-13T19:52:00.029-07:00 Nova Kakhovka Dam: Erosion vs. Explosion Debates<p><b>Part 6 of "What Caused the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka Dam? "</b></p><p><b>August 8, 2023</b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Limited Truth vs. Anti-Truth Cultists </span></b></p><p>In 5 bloated posts here, I've been making the case that Ukraine and its hydropower agency UHE were the ones who destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam two months ago now. (for reference as they come up - <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/what-caused-collapse-of-nova-kakhovka.html">part 1</a> - <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/did-ukraine-break-dnipro-river-and-nova.html">part 2</a> - <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/nova-kahkovka-dam-four-frontline.html">part 3</a> - <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/07/nova-kakhovka-dam-how-dam-was-undermined.html">part 4</a> - <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/07/how-ukraines-hydropower-authority.html">part 5</a>) The story is of less interest to most people now, and that's lucky for Ukraine. Much evidence I've uncovered assembles nicely into a case I could see almost from the start - Kyiv consciously weaponized the Dnipro River against the Russians, destroying the occupied Nova Kakhovka dam with deliberate over-flooding in April and May, atop erosion worsened by Ukrainian rocket attacks, deepening this hydrologic scouring until it undermined the dam. </p><p>I haven't proposed this a certain fact to fit my preconceived notion, but as <i>a <b>well-illustrated</b> case to consider. </i>I strongly suspect it's true, as the evidence I see keeps fitting with my starting hunch, or a version of it that grows to fit the evidence (hopefully more than the other way around). It's a familiar process by now. As always, I don't know the truth for certain. And to others, I can only make the case as best I can. </p><p>One part of my theory is likely to become a mainstream "established fact," even though it's been loudly overruled so far. <b>Erosion, not explosions, probably brought down the dam.</b> Ukraine's celebrated post-2014 government, its military, and its dam operators were always clear a Russian bomb here or there was responsible. Supportive governments, Norwegian experts with seismograph readings, US spy satellites, experts cited by the New York Times, and the entire corporate media - mainly citing the Times piece - all claim to prove the same. That's the anti-Russia orthodoxy. </p><p>And yet quite a few mainstream-thinking Ukraine boosters -<i> especially the ones who know the evidence and the related fields </i>- have been surprisingly unhesitant to question that orthodoxy and propose erosion was the likely cause. They have no problem holding Russia to account for alleged crimes, but this time the evidence leads them to let it go. They generally conclude that Russia is guilty, but of something more like negligence than terrorism. Still, I find it refreshing - a breath of less-stale air.</p><p>First, I noticed Ryan McBeth - an "OSINT" analyst of moderate knowledge and middling talent, with some mutable respect for reality - was willing to basically dismiss the bomb narrative, and suggest the dam fell due to erosion. Link to research, with discussion: <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMcbeth/status/1666996709451235332">Ryan McBeth on Twitter: "Explosives didn't bring down the Kakhovka Dam, negligence and Colin Powell's "Pottery Barn Rule" did.</a> - Video: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6z4rhBKTT5U">How Russia Destroyed the Kakhovka Dam - YouTube</a> - The video was a starting point for my own analysis in <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/what-caused-collapse-of-nova-kakhovka.html">part 1</a>.</p><p>Regarding the seismic signals, McBeth spoke with a seismologist, Prof. Eric Dunham, and came away with the impression that if there were bombs used, "the explosion AND subsequent collapse should come in as two different kinds of waves," while we see a concentration of spikes that could just be the rumble of the dam breaking and the start of violent flooding. Dunham, McBeth, myself, and many others agree with this, and at least one of us is an expert. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCpCvR-6Wc1jdN25unAYzBF59K8FuK_JtrnXKmL6Bdf8zfNavcKqsMV6GdI3SDeuVP4_zK1oS8m3CoapPXUQdAQYOroDLoEHjhxG9Msim38Za3VDQnkWWa6inytP6Vz04WpTcNbM-KZstL3eVotJ0I3Q_LdsuQ6OmZB7l8ebrANP3R9EbJ7JFbUHBpMFo5/s2116/NK_Dam_5-28-6-5_comp_b.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="932" data-original-width="2116" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCpCvR-6Wc1jdN25unAYzBF59K8FuK_JtrnXKmL6Bdf8zfNavcKqsMV6GdI3SDeuVP4_zK1oS8m3CoapPXUQdAQYOroDLoEHjhxG9Msim38Za3VDQnkWWa6inytP6Vz04WpTcNbM-KZstL3eVotJ0I3Q_LdsuQ6OmZB7l8ebrANP3R9EbJ7JFbUHBpMFo5/w640-h282/NK_Dam_5-28-6-5_comp_b.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>As many others have done, McBeth also pointed to the curved section of roadway that collapsed a few days before the dam, as a sign of progressing erosion (my own graphic above, and McBeth narrowed the collapse down to in between images of June 1 and June 2). He didn't seem to understand the concrete apron making this an unlikely event, but then he also missed the signs of failure in this apron making it pretty likely after all (see my part 4). He didn't know exactly how, but one way or another, he was sure some Russian negligence was to blame.</p><p>Ukraine-boosters were fairly polite in replies to this work, since McBeth was blaming Russia, after all. But they were sure he had it wrong, that the seismic readings proved a deliberate and criminal explosion. They couldn't demonstrate why, but that's what they had heard. Later, the NYT report would erase all doubt for such people.</p><p>For some reason, Eliot Higgins and the crew at Bellingcat have barely discussed the dam collapse, that I found, except indirectly. They used OSINT to identify a new dam the Russian built at Tokmak, they think to cause new flooding and prevent a Ukrainian encroachment. They put this out as indirect support to Russian dam plots, but had little to say about Kakhovka itself, aside from <a href="https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1674326180856582144">this side-note tweet</a>: "The exact events leading up to the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam remain unclear. @nytimes reported that evidence suggested it was instigated by an inside explosion set off by Russia. Bellingcat has not been able to independently verify this claim."</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9GKeEVlh9q72vNWwc4eC9VxiL1UO6fkjxza6FFirX236cjDcmgXoF-dYicnN7n_b9OqP2rCBLZfq5SZqELSsvxJF1HHohyyeMqakMJptgi4se3w-44puR1T0w4Or52KDuJD8DfBnv0BAom38h5u06GgCtbrFd0cuOaN2mBg7rhEPbg_mpj5SVfNbirn1n/s801/Screenshot%20(5062).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="795" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9GKeEVlh9q72vNWwc4eC9VxiL1UO6fkjxza6FFirX236cjDcmgXoF-dYicnN7n_b9OqP2rCBLZfq5SZqELSsvxJF1HHohyyeMqakMJptgi4se3w-44puR1T0w4Or52KDuJD8DfBnv0BAom38h5u06GgCtbrFd0cuOaN2mBg7rhEPbg_mpj5SVfNbirn1n/w398-h400/Screenshot%20(5062).png" width="398" /></a></div><p></p><p></p>Wolfsangel-clad Pro-Ukraine cultists, the same Banderites already angry at Bellingcat for supposedly exaggerating Ukraine's Nazi problem, showed up to pile on the hate for this skepticism. Why was it even needed to "independently confirm" the evident facts? Everyone knows Russians mined the dam, planned to blow it up, admitted to blowing it up, and satellites and sensors picked it up, so how dare they question NYT? If you don't blame Russia unquestioningly for the maximum crime, you're basically killing these people all over again. And so, according to these people, Bellingcat supports Russian genocide and ecocide in Ukraine. They might be working for Russia, consciously using their other work as a disguise for that core mission. <div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6pSQELyqxnvJKMbdMDazicdoyKXSSegO8CSinw5Pwrt3OQKUZTLBnAhjBjTg2Q4GmzwsjEddT2O1MdAx4TJPf2tkqtvyDSuObe8TVn1r-s-nBzRTNGBShMfhl-qKd2ZPT4VEATqN1HvfiWDkrsA49_HAQKO3tDCp_ZiknCEkj3m88ah0_XsS0dDMkUlV0/s900/Fx7-hUxXoAAMshs.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6pSQELyqxnvJKMbdMDazicdoyKXSSegO8CSinw5Pwrt3OQKUZTLBnAhjBjTg2Q4GmzwsjEddT2O1MdAx4TJPf2tkqtvyDSuObe8TVn1r-s-nBzRTNGBShMfhl-qKd2ZPT4VEATqN1HvfiWDkrsA49_HAQKO3tDCp_ZiknCEkj3m88ah0_XsS0dDMkUlV0/w320-h320/Fx7-hUxXoAAMshs.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>The nerd has me blocked, but I hear Bellingcat member Aric Toler suggested an act of "mother nature" might have collapsed the dam, rather than anyone's bombs, although he says "I'm the furthest thing from an engineer." I've seen a lot further from an engineer than that. He was piled on by the cultists, I guess leading to their stretched reading of what the Bellingcat account had said (<a href="https://twitter.com/tayemnyykavun/status/1666048762911813637">see here</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/BasedWarszawa/status/1666082188084011014">here</a> and the cartoon above). 2 strikes plus the Nazi talk and it was looking pretty obvious Bellingcat were Russian stooges. To these people. probably 98% of people on Earth would classify as Russian stooges.<p></p><p>Andrew Barr is not quite an example of someone agreeing with me across the aisle, but he's worth a mention. He did some good work\on the dam collapse I hadn't looked at closely enough until just now, including <a href="https://twitter.com/andrew_barr/status/1671138072380014593">a look at erosion</a> as "worth discussing" at least. He looked at the 2017 failure of the Oroville dam, noting "It's possible that something similar could happen at Kakhovka, but the drawings suggest great care was taken to account for the ground conditions." (<a href="https://twitter.com/andrew_barr/status/1671138100465000448">tweet</a>) That's the concrete apron. He wondered if the roadway collapse was caused by erosion, but seeing this, he decided probably not, even though that remains the best explanation. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/07/nova-kakhovka-dam-how-dam-was-undermined.html">My own analysis</a> suggests the apron was broken and uneven well before 2022, a condition worsened by the war and the constant, narrowed outflow, and that its worsening is just what led to the subsidence of a part of a divider and then this roadway, <i>with its attached columns and flow guides that probably went first.</i> A Barr commenter raised some excellent points including this, <a href="https://twitter.com/VictorishB123/status/1672291049199517697">also noting</a> "I happen to live with two civil engineering majors. Both came to the conclusion it was some sort of scour [erosion] failure after seeing that the bridge supports were gone the morning before the dam gave way." (these were actually gone earlier, on June 1 or 2).</p><p>Barr would decide "I think internal explosion(s) remain the most likely cause," even though "nothing I've said rules out existing damage to the barrage and downstream erosion as comorbidities." (<a href="https://twitter.com/andrew_barr/status/1674075408545751043">Andrew Barr on Twitter</a>.) As far as I can tell, the kind of structural collapse he suggests at the HPP could be caused by an internal bomb or a mechanical collapse as I propose. I think he could and should come back to the issue. </p><p>I had some agreeable interactions with Dutch researcher OSINTJOURNO - a Ukraine booster who nonetheless saw signs of erosion perhaps related to Ukrainian rocket attacks, perhaps in addition to explosives. She followed this with a rigorous analysis of all images, construction details, as well as plant employees, although the latter proved the less reliable evidence in the end. <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1682699237467860992">A later review thread</a> with great visual aids said in part; "It cannot be ruled out that the Russians may have accelerated or aided the collapse of the Kakhovka dam on June 6" but <b>"the dam was already so structurally damaged on June 2, 2023, that it was no longer salvageable at that time."</b> As I've put it, there may have been bombs set, but if so, it comes with this coincidence that the dam was set to collapse any day regardless.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Debate with Julien DuPont</span></b></p><p>My most interesting point of agreement came in a less agreeable discussion with Julien DuPont, who claims and seems to be a French expert in the field ("Hydrology and hydraulic infrastructures happen to be my job." <a href="https://twitter.com/JulnDpt/status/1686709422243053568">tweet</a>). He responded to my last article, <a href="https://twitter.com/JulnDpt/status/1686600659926405120">starting with</a>: "Fully agree that <b>the destruction was caused by erosion and not explosion.</b> Fully disagree that Ukraine had anything to do with it: time series of water levels in the upstream dams show that their dams management was perfectly normal and similar to past years." </p><p>As I started out, "Similar" doesn't cut it when the differences are what they are - skipping spring irrigation 'til mid-April, taking on heavy rains then w/net DROPS after, as Kakhovka was flooded with all of the excess, after all that damage, stuck gates & erosion ..." Nothing DuPont said really addressed that, but we repeated the exercise several times, and there was a chance for learning on both sides - along the way some new data and thinking have already re-shaped my views slightly. </p><p>DuPont acknowledged Ukraine may have made some minor mistakes ("Neither side had any interest in destroying the dam. But neither side did its best to prevent this from happening. Very sad story." <a href="https://twitter.com/JulnDpt/status/1686766919339425792">tweet</a>), but if anyone was to blame, it must be Russia. He came with assumptions of normalcy. and the approved mainstream bias you're supposed to ignore, thought he could set me straight with some basic words, with no original thought or learning required on his own part. Then he had a hard time accepting that wasn't the case - I had questions he couldn't answer so easily, and plausible answers he didn't even try to understand. </p><p>He dabbled in false-flag science to bolster his preconceived notion that I was totally wrong. <b>He doubted the Ukrainians would waste valuable water </b>by destroying a dam and its reservoir and so, if they wanted to do it, would chose bombs instead, and would have been able to do that (<a href="https://twitter.com/JulnDpt/status/1686764638027788290">tweet</a>). But if they did decide to use the river itself, he's sure <b>they would have wasted way more water </b>than the amounts sent, even though he agrees that did suffice to collapse the dam (<a href="https://twitter.com/JulnDpt/status/1686765151528079365">tweet</a>). He knows water, and sometimes logic.</p><p>He rightly pointed out that the small reservoirs, which I had considered too heavily, barely matter for volume; comparisons between the 2 big lakes - Kremenchuk & Kakhovka - tell most of the story more simply. He focused on Kremenchuk levels, saying over and over how they were similar to those in most years, and would come out much lower if Kakhoka had been over-flooded. But he seems to ignore the nature & timing of the small differences with other years and, more importantly with the other lake this same year, getting out-of-phase with Kakhovka in a way that really illustrates my own points (see graphic with red and blue lines below). </p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/JulnDpt/status/1686765151528079365">DuPont</a>: "If it was really UKR's objective to flood the KL, then they would have doubled down and released massive amounts of water. That did not happen, as the Krementchusk level remained constant until June."</p><p>Me: "Hey, they doubled down and released massive amounts of water. That's why Kakhovka was 100% full, 1m past normal max, for one month, despite 4 gates pouring 24/7.<b> It's a crazy lot of water. Not seeing it vanish somewhere else doesn't change that." </b></p><p>That was my favorite point. He fails to understand we're considering a possible shell game with water, where movements can be obscured, where outflow can be replaced to maintain the natural appearance, especially when there was heavy new flow in April to draw from. And that natural appearance matters, as DuPont knows, having cited it right off to suggest Ukrainian innocence. He could make better use of the volumes and timing of that game, if it existed. But he only wants to squint away such details until everything looks fuzzy but kind of normal, just like he lazily anticipated. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Freeboard?</span></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiXdUQvJd50sZcq3e9QwDYCF1q8uwq8r5av8mmMGdecY3Pk7xl8oMoAix3M7JTWzraR_AZWsWp3Hznzs-l_JqX1iVtVgi-D1HVT7bYyL8W8UObBJHHYdoCBASWUnRRnsCCaPYTBF4Yh11JK8C69P0fmLRRWjpWpIUXldGJAzFwLTdg8GiQ2t7T6OdlaSWr/s1089/F2iYgWvXAAAJ1N_.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="658" data-original-width="1089" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiXdUQvJd50sZcq3e9QwDYCF1q8uwq8r5av8mmMGdecY3Pk7xl8oMoAix3M7JTWzraR_AZWsWp3Hznzs-l_JqX1iVtVgi-D1HVT7bYyL8W8UObBJHHYdoCBASWUnRRnsCCaPYTBF4Yh11JK8C69P0fmLRRWjpWpIUXldGJAzFwLTdg8GiQ2t7T6OdlaSWr/w400-h241/F2iYgWvXAAAJ1N_.png" width="400" /></a></div>DuPont also argued that Lake Kremenchuk was filled <i>roughly </i>to the physical brim at certain points over the years, and that's why it's unlikely would they keep a significant "freeboard" of unfilled capacity <i>that might have been used to forestall disaster in 2023</i>: "the maximum level observed 4 times in 30 years HAS to be very close to the maximum allowable level. And obviously, the maximum level is NEVER to be exceeded." (<a href="https://twitter.com/JulnDpt/status/1686765664910925824">tweet</a>). He <a href="https://twitter.com/JulnDpt/status/1686765754387996673">tried it out</a> for good measure, though he didn't seem to think it was real: "But let's assume there was, let's say, 1m available freeboard that could have been filled." (right) He <a href="https://twitter.com/JulnDpt/status/1686765833723248642">decided</a> it wouldn't have mattered: "by 9th April, the Krementschusk reservoir would have been full and the UKR would have released water to keep the level constant, in exactly the same amount as they did in April-May." They would do it later, after Kakhovka had time to deal with the excess it was just dealt. That alone would have made a huge difference.<p></p><p>He's the expert, but I read that some freeboard is a standard safety feature of dams. <a href="https://www.aboutcivil.org/freeboard-definition-types-determination-uses.html">Freeboard - Types of Free Board, Determination of Freeboard & Its Uses (aboutcivil.org)</a> explains that it's usually 1.5 times the height of expected waves atop the "maximum design-pool elevation." In practice, I only know <b>Lake Kakhovka normally kept 1m of freeboard</b>;16.5m is the normal maximum held for years, and it was filled the last meter to 17.5. before it started pouring over the top. I don't think these figures are in dispute. Kremenchuk and the others are quite likely the same, despite what DuPont thinks, although I suppose we can't be certain of that. </p><p>Logically, you wouldn't use this extra capacity lightly, but heavily, when the alternative is dangerous flooding downstream, like forcing Kakhovka to use ALL of its "freeboard" for a month straight. And that applies here. </p><p>DuPont linked me to a new resource, a USDA site with reservoir levels read by passing satellites. By the USDA graph, I'd say the normal high at Lake Kremenchuk is 81.6m (about what he gets - see above). 81.8 was reached last year, and about 81.9 this year, both exceptions to the norm, bur proving <b>there is at least about 0.3 meters that could be filled, yet never had been until the current conflict.</b> 81.9 could be the physical limit, but we're considering freeboard, and the limited precedent says it may be 1m above the normal high. That would be 82.6m. This year they filled it to or past normal, to 81.6 or 81.9, depending on the measure (USDA chart gives the higher number, Hydroweb stations the lower one). That would leave 0.7m to the full meter of unused capacity, depending. I'm going with 0.7 and suggesting <b>they used some of that space this year - about 30% of it. </b>But again, this is all guesswork.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO0Y29OqaOVUIHa29D1izx9a1tcMbj42bdibaKbzaTBu6JYTZ6PLPC5k6gAokOnEUd8RowWXV1eEezKohDbLoTR_-tGqyT0QCPwOMnYszstSgxICKTcPQckeSWHvtOPM9V7l7Hb54o8-bYTkqyO7iYo_sx8OTK06F5xq94s8CMhK6SXE_RnlNgQW-VWSOg/s1231/USDA_Kremenchuk_2023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="646" data-original-width="1231" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO0Y29OqaOVUIHa29D1izx9a1tcMbj42bdibaKbzaTBu6JYTZ6PLPC5k6gAokOnEUd8RowWXV1eEezKohDbLoTR_-tGqyT0QCPwOMnYszstSgxICKTcPQckeSWHvtOPM9V7l7Hb54o8-bYTkqyO7iYo_sx8OTK06F5xq94s8CMhK6SXE_RnlNgQW-VWSOg/w640-h336/USDA_Kremenchuk_2023.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Lake vs. lake</span></b></p><p>Next, I compared the USDA graphs for the 2 lakes (<a href="https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir/gr_regional_chart.aspx?regionid=up&reservoir_name=Kremenshugskoye&lakeid=000503">G-REALM - Kremenshugskoye (usda.gov)</a> & <a href="https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir/gr_regional_chart.aspx?regionid=up&reservoir_name=Kakhovskoye&lakeid=000873">G-REALM - Kakhovskoye (usda.gov)</a>) with 2022-23 overlaid so the known and possible 1m freeboard are to scale and therefore all is - 1m = 1m. This puts the lie to this claim of harmonious balance as in years past. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDyLvZ3IQO3O7soSQmsf_RQxbVjYqrrghfF-Wfcnp5iqM4H-9G4ql3-uCs37aQ0ACq3V1FoJuB4IPIit-x3VFY61dNwEiUISrFh5OuoMBJCybpdQ4HLYlfKrWnfBgQCixuZcnfCjHA9NaAv3n_pcA5xeGImSEGJJihOirNyFGliABsXSzPkoNOBJ9kZfdd/s950/USDA_Krem_vs_Kak.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="447" data-original-width="950" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDyLvZ3IQO3O7soSQmsf_RQxbVjYqrrghfF-Wfcnp5iqM4H-9G4ql3-uCs37aQ0ACq3V1FoJuB4IPIit-x3VFY61dNwEiUISrFh5OuoMBJCybpdQ4HLYlfKrWnfBgQCixuZcnfCjHA9NaAv3n_pcA5xeGImSEGJJihOirNyFGliABsXSzPkoNOBJ9kZfdd/w640-h302/USDA_Krem_vs_Kak.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>The reservoirs start roughly in sync, but from mid-2022 as Ukrainian attacks on the dam commenced, a pattern emerges where Kremenchuk drains extra low as Kakhovka fills extra high, or in Dec-Feb, it holds back so that Kremenchuk was building to its normal high through February and March, as Kakhovka sank to a record low in February, and was kept well below normal range through March. You build up like Kremenchuk did by taking water in and passing on little to none of it. Normal maximum and record low, on the same river, just 1 month apart - that's a disastrous imbalance. Some of that water should have already been sent to Kakhovka and passed into the sea in an orderly manner. Instead, it was saved up all winter (this, noted skipping of spring irrigation at Kyiv HPP) as Ukraine complained of the shortfall at Kakhovka. It was kept until 20-year record rainfall was on its way, and THEN it was sent almost all at once along with that rain.</p><p>My big point in part 2 was how this heavy water load should be shared better than it was. I've learned some details since then, and now I see it was shared a bit better than I thought. I'm noticing in the USDA chart a serious drawdown at the end of March that was only faintly suggested in the Hydroweb records. This would serve to refill the stations that had apparently just raised Kakhovka to low normal. (Dnipro HPP had just begun its filling that would never stop, but at the moment, it was some belated correction of the imbalance). They likely could foresee the heavy April rains coming and made some room. </p><p>Still, <b>when that rain came, it pushed both lakes past normal high levels. </b>But there was still a serious imbalance in that. Kremenchuk's level rose 1m from early April, and spent some 50 days past normal high, mostly at about 0.3 or 0.4m past. That's nothing to scoff at, but they probably retained 60-70% of their freeboard capacity at the worst point. Kakhovka rose some 2m after early April and might have risen further if that were even possible. It spent about the same 6-7 weeks past its normal high, and most of that time was spent 100% full. </p><p>Retained likely freeboard: 60-70% compared to 0%. That's a load that could have been shared better, Wasn't I supposed to learn something new here? And from there, Kremenchuk shed some, and was about 0.1m below normal high and probably 1.1m below physical capacity by early June, as <b>Kakhovka was wrapping up a full month AT physical capacity, and was about to collapse.</b> </p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/JulnDpt/status/1686696831827492864">DuPont</a>: "Any dam can store water up do a maximum level determined by its design. A proper dam operation in case of intense rainfall consists in keeping the water level below that max level which is obviously the upper end of normal range. It should never overtop." </p><p>Me:<b> "Well, UHE thought Kakhovka should overtop for a month straight. </b>Otherwise, they would NOT have kept sending ALL the excess to them. They would share the load, if they agreed with you. And usually I guess they do. But seems they had special considerations this year."</p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Floodgates? </span></b></p><p>According to the data, DuPont feels the amount of water sent by UHE's dams in April and May was just fine, and only became disastrous because of the Russians. Safety standard left no room for excess upstream, so UHE had to send it. Kakhovka could have made room just fine, but the Russians messed that up by opening too few floodgates. Therefore, I gather, it's OK that UHE's dams filled Kakhovka to 100% full and MAINTAINED it like that for weeks on end. </p><p>It's just like those traffic laws that apply when you drive your bus into a car that should have turned out of your path but never did. You saw it coming and could have turned yourself, but the other driver fell asleep at the wheel or whatever, so it's OK to drive right over that car. In fact it's the responsible thing to do, since turning can be dangerous. In the same way (?), DuPont maintains if the Russians wouldn't or couldn't open more floodgates, then it's fair to send such a torrent it cannot be managed, and to see that happening for weeks on end as you keep adding to it, until you collapse the fucking dam with erosion. Pardon my French. </p><p>Then you can say "well, they should have opened more (and/or different) floodgates." This is what "responsible dam operators" do. Or so I gather, after some discussion with an expert. </p><p>Now, obviously, IF the Russian-affiliated dam managers could open more and different floodgates, that would lessen the overload, while adding less to the worsening erosion. They quite obviously <i>should</i> have changed that situation, as early as possible, once the flood was upon them. But again, it's not clear they<i> could</i> do this, when the cranes that run the gates never moved for 6 months - they might have become somehow deactivated. </p><p>And furthermore,<b> the four gates left constantly open were<i> already</i> pushing the downstream areas to near flood level. <i>Any more release, as DuPont proposed, would probably push it past flood level. </i></b></p><p>Not because they wanted to, but because they were trying their hardest to drain the reservoir OR doing the NOTHING they could do, the Russians were already flooding their own defensive trenches, reportedly drowning one soldier. On hearing me point that out, DuPont almost giggled and suggested the Russians COULD just leave, because that flooding really <i>should</i> have been worsened ("If they didn't want to be drowned, nobody prevented them from leaving the area." <a href="https://twitter.com/JulnDpt/status/1686709940755542016">tweet</a>). I reminded him people live there too, and he may have dropped that point, tacitly ceding that <b>flooding the Kherson way was not the ideal solution. </b><b>Opening more floodgates would entail that, so it was never the right answer to a situation that really should not have existed. </b></p><p>So even at its best, his reason to approve of this over-flooding lacks real value. Ryan McBeth, Aric Toler and the rest will probably hold similar flawed assumptions as they ignore how the situation at that dam was made unmanageable ... let's just say "for no obviously wholesome reason." As I noted early on, the Russians were left releasing far too much water AND not releasing nearly enough water all at the same time, having ended up with way too much to deal with. I'm not crazy for seriously wondering about that. </p><p>Maybe he can come around, but it's difficult for some people. At the end he was striking a fake or uninformed pose of dismissing my whole case as "a joke" based on "pre-established conclusion that UKR had an evil plot from the start" (<a href="https://twitter.com/JulnDpt/status/1687100966750089216">tweet</a>), only imagining that I had found supporting evidence. I don't believe it when he says he fully reviewed my bloated writings before declaring global fraud, all comprehensive and proven-like: "I read everything, including your blog posts, very carefully." But he showed unawareness of my points on several occasions and, as noted, failed to really address the relevant evidence, even as he pretended to. </p><p>K Johnson was on hand to like and maybe advise DuPont's last tweets, It was more his poser style than that of the human being I was interacting with previously. But perhaps that's just him being frustrated with me. </p><p>So anyway, while other people swap NYT/SBU ghost stories about Russian bombs, give each other prizes for the best story, and shame anyone who doubts the stories, that's the kind of lively debate that exists among smart people discussing what ACTUALLY happened to the Nova Kakhovka dam. </p></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-41739646748037918042023-07-31T20:16:00.013-07:002023-08-03T07:44:59.299-07:00How Ukraine's Hydropower Authority Quietly Destroyed the Nova Kakhovka Dam<p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Part 5 of What Caused the Collapse of the Nova Kakhovka Dam? </span></b></p><div><b>July 31, 2023 (slightly rough - edits Aug. 1, 3)</b></div><p></p><b><span style="font-size: large;">UHE and Russia's Chernobyl 2.0</span></b><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7pLLyUysHmoqcS8AtquEOt1npyWVJyI1bBscJFHtZ8JnAx0199CWS6hYkSJhSRC0CfDZR5e78oQ9NTP5fZO_FFHCDMwv3Hh3oOYMofuZEdzIaIuOMIOpzeG7EmcECb3q1kWwQRzMEwsumfxm0XkvdMC-0BX6uKNKHUtI0lEP4Et0udz5-on-XoA_7erEl/s391/Ukhrhydroenergo.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="391" data-original-width="373" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7pLLyUysHmoqcS8AtquEOt1npyWVJyI1bBscJFHtZ8JnAx0199CWS6hYkSJhSRC0CfDZR5e78oQ9NTP5fZO_FFHCDMwv3Hh3oOYMofuZEdzIaIuOMIOpzeG7EmcECb3q1kWwQRzMEwsumfxm0XkvdMC-0BX6uKNKHUtI0lEP4Et0udz5-on-XoA_7erEl/w191-h200/Ukhrhydroenergo.png" width="191" /></a></div><b>Ukrhydroenergo </b>(Ukr-Hydro-Energo - hereafter <b>UHE</b>) is Ukraine's largest hydroelectric company, restructured in 2004 from another company formed in 1994. (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrhydroenergo">Wikipedia</a>) UHE operates many of Ukraine's Soviet-era and newer hydroelectric power plants (HPPs) and linked dams, and thus exerts control over many of the nation's rivers. On the Dnieper (or Dnipro) River, they used to run six dams and linked HPPS in their prized "Dnieper Cascade." The last of the six - Nova Kakhovka dam and hydropower plant - was seized by Russian forces on day one of their "Special Military Operation" in 2022 and occupied until it was destroyed, under disputed circumstances, on June 6, 2023.</div><div><br /></div><div>It was only on June 1, a few days before that disaster, that UHE <a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3587">proudly announced</a> how it "has become a member of the International Hydropower Association (IHA)." Website: <a href="https://www.hydropower.org/">International Hydropower Association</a>. It seems they could have achieved IHA membership years ago, but something had precluded it right past the Orange Revolution, the Maidan events, the Crimean secession and Donbass "Anti-Terroror Operation," Minsk, Zelenskyy, and one year of Russia's partial occupation of Ukraine. The issue might relate to now-ongoing anti-corruption efforts at UHE. ("Prevention and countering of corruption is one of the priorities of Ukrhydroenergo. On February 14, an online seminar was held with professionals on anti-corruption activities of the Company's branches." (<a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3058">Telegram</a>) </div><div><br /></div><div>Ukraine has at times been recognized as the most corrupt nation in Europe. It seems UHE was - or is - no exception. They have a history of some members making secret, illegals deals for some kind of profit. UHE are also good patriots, as everyone must be in the face of Russia's invasion. Ending or at least complicating the Russian occupation of parts of Ukraine ... well, that's profitable to everyone, they'd say. In this light, they might conspire with Ukraine's military on some clever plan, even if it were technically illegal and would have to be denied.</div><div><p>Just a few days after UHE joined the IHA, both parties had a chance to lament the irreparable collapse of the occupied Nova Kakhovka dam and HPP. The IHA <a href="https://www.hydropower.org/news/iha-statement-damage-to-nova-kakhovska-dam">issued a statement</a> decrying the "tragedy," citing some details from "our members Ukrhydroenergo, who operate the plant" (at least formally). To their credit, IHA passed on no premature propaganda about the Russians having blown it up. UHE, in contrast, seemed better-informed and was clear on this point, having it built into their very first comments, <a href="https://t.me/novaya_kahovka_news/4799">early June 6 on Telegram</a>, citing military sources: "[Operational Command] "South" confirmed the detonation by the occupiers of Kakhovskaya HPP." </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6khd-NDWIdCKkuGVZKwY0E5kcYvhv0p7qfnsJ-9u-2ilST84V05PU87UItA88HS9EnKKWSlqtZKfuNFGWgH8q9e0_sibNsPXmqh3b9PqfwCdjsI69a-5HBvkNVtH16TxQe-CJyMPkRLn-DiKK4A8g8oQ0E68f2lP33xuiol9JU-A-aVpT_VG0vAikose8/s643/UHE_Sirota.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="643" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6khd-NDWIdCKkuGVZKwY0E5kcYvhv0p7qfnsJ-9u-2ilST84V05PU87UItA88HS9EnKKWSlqtZKfuNFGWgH8q9e0_sibNsPXmqh3b9PqfwCdjsI69a-5HBvkNVtH16TxQe-CJyMPkRLn-DiKK4A8g8oQ0E68f2lP33xuiol9JU-A-aVpT_VG0vAikose8/s320/UHE_Sirota.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p>On June 6, <a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3617">UHE's General Director Ihor Syrota declared</a>: "We strongly condemn the terrorist act of the Russian Federation - the blowing up of the Kakhovskaya HPP. ... The hydropower industry is experiencing the most difficult times since the Second World War," he added. The dam could not be restored, but he promised in time "the Kakhovskaya station will definitely be re-built in the same place." Of course, the new dam could only be built once the area was de-occupied. Perhaps ironically, the old dam's destruction seemed to be assisting Ukraine's military in that very cause (<a href="https://mwi.usma.edu/when-the-levee-breaks-five-military-takeaways-from-the-kakhovka-dams-destruction/">see here</a> for example).</p><p>From there, UHE would post daily on their website and Telegram channels, documenting the flooding and other effects of Russia's crime, maximizing its scale and importance, and demanding payback. They were on the frontlines of history, to hear them talk, but were sadly unable to stop this Russian plot. They would do their part by calling it out and to toss in some foreshadowing of the supposed plot to destroy the nearby Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which the Russians also occupied. <a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3725">UHE would state</a> "By blowing up the Kakhovskaya HPP, the Russian occupiers caused <b>the biggest man-made disaster on our continent since the Chernobyl tragedy.</b>" </p><p>Within hours, UHE knew where the Russians had set their bomb. They <a href="https://uhe.gov.ua/media_tsentr/novyny/vnochi-6-chervnya-rosiyskimi-okupaciynimi-viyskami-zdiysneno-pidriv-kakhovskoi">announced June 6 on their website</a> the dam collapsed following on "the explosion of the engine room from the inside." The area of the HPP engine room marked red below, on a mid-collapse drone video, would be somehow destroyed soon after this view. But this story gives no explanation for it remaining intact after the dam's partial collapse (between the white lines) some 20 minutes earlier. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSuo5sZANqLXRnpv9H8ggad3B1VVPDZp68edAJ8sO2DzpnrSd1wh6VKDhj5bMPHaYwwLujMo_marvNzRxF5au83jK7dXvRRe3GA4sjVlRUFfzg1z2X5SKSs_IH_svClOZ76eUMujL8yHydGPlVjP7pYObjiX1BkPN_qIPJfnOfaEB5oL5dEwQdZ8rflWp2/s1342/NK%20dam%20Ukrhydroenergo%20claims.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="1342" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSuo5sZANqLXRnpv9H8ggad3B1VVPDZp68edAJ8sO2DzpnrSd1wh6VKDhj5bMPHaYwwLujMo_marvNzRxF5au83jK7dXvRRe3GA4sjVlRUFfzg1z2X5SKSs_IH_svClOZ76eUMujL8yHydGPlVjP7pYObjiX1BkPN_qIPJfnOfaEB5oL5dEwQdZ8rflWp2/w640-h284/NK%20dam%20Ukrhydroenergo%20claims.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>A later New York Times report would propose that the Russian bombs were set in a tunnel inside the dam where the first collapse happened. This would be reflected in later UHE explanations. <a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3796">June 30</a>: "the Russians were already importing explosives and loading them into the lower tiers of the station." The engine room thing might have been secondary. Maybe they just <i>didn't want to talk about that section of the dam</i>, the one with the initial collapse, and where massive erosion took the deepest hold, near all those known and likely rocket impacts (blue oval above), dating from August to November 2022. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcyETzR4xbugkIdZyZRhv__2giEm95YGCF5gRNmsu8NUWgz1G4C_MzQXi1w9RR-CyV3tTVVUOHG6iOSjCVYDJe9s2PnYyiyAMUB4IfkDt4oSWX3mYAoHUEs3m6ea6cnrk4yFkFI4dqMJsreCiYp4ZCenzI0_2Sx3HjBCshSzEM47h1jNyHCE_f6_l_HPt1/s900/NK_Dam_Gate_3_damage_A.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="900" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcyETzR4xbugkIdZyZRhv__2giEm95YGCF5gRNmsu8NUWgz1G4C_MzQXi1w9RR-CyV3tTVVUOHG6iOSjCVYDJe9s2PnYyiyAMUB4IfkDt4oSWX3mYAoHUEs3m6ea6cnrk4yFkFI4dqMJsreCiYp4ZCenzI0_2Sx3HjBCshSzEM47h1jNyHCE_f6_l_HPt1/s320/NK_Dam_Gate_3_damage_A.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>Damage to the dam from Ukraine's HIMARS rocket attacks was seen in some photos, apparently dating from November and December, but<a href="https://t.me/printerfort/3790"> released March 5</a> as "taken in March," and then <a href="https://grivna.ua/publikatsii/peretvorili-na-viyskoviy-obekt-v-yakomu-stani-sogodni-kahovska-ges-%28foto%29">re-released on the 25th at Grivna.ua</a> (right: damage near floodgate 3). The latter mentioned no Russian attacks, but noted their military presence as the cause of the damage. The accompanying text has UHE's Syrota seeming to acknowledge but downplay the role of rocket shelling, emphasizing Russian theft and accidents caused by their Orkish negligence: <b>"The Kakhovka HPP was damaged already</b>, I think, eight months ago, when they (the occupiers – ed.) They were engaged in theft of equipment ... Then this led to accidents..." UHE "made an examination of everything damaged," estimating 16.7 billion hryvnias (about $454.6 million US). - the European Court has opened proceedings in this case," he said. Elsewhere, UHE and Syrota blame "Russian shelling" or "enemy air attacks" for damage to their dams totaling about $1 billion US (<a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3403">April 21</a>). Nearly half of that damage is at Kakhovka and most of that was probably done by Ukraine. <p></p><p>As <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/07/nova-kakhovka-dam-how-dam-was-undermined.html">my last post</a> explained, it was probably not any explosives that collapsed the dam but<b> pre-existing erosion, worsened by the Ukrainian rocket attacks UHE denies, and by <i>overflooding that was directly engineered by UHE</i></b><i>. </i>Only increased input from the 5 upstream dams can rapidly rise the levels as happened. As such, Ukrhydoenergo played a key part in this, with major flooding from their dams running April to June. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/did-ukraine-break-dnipro-river-and-nova.html">Part 2</a> related the data end of this, as recorded somewhat by HydroWeb virtual stations, but with quite a few suspicious gaps in the data. See below for some further details and when and how, and how UHE aided the cause with some timely misinformation about the floodgates. </p><p>Much evidence suggests that <b>Ukraine consciously weaponized the Dnieper River against the Russians, with Ukrhydroenergo acting as willing conspirators.</b> The Russsian-affiliated dam managers may have been powerless to stop the assault, thanks to all their equipment being wrecked with the 2022 rocket attacks and likely sabotage. The central question of why the same 4 floodgates were left open for 6 months, feeding the intense erosion, remains open. The gantry cranes that open the gates may have been stopped by Russian design as widely assumed, or by malfunction or from attack damage, or quite likely they just lost power. Some claims from dam employees mention a power switch that was located on the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainians might have simply switched it off - presumably by UHE or with their knowledge. If so, the Russians probably could<i> not</i> change that situation, as widely assumed. (see part 3 - <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/nova-kahkovka-dam-four-frontline.html">Four Frontline Floodgates</a> - and see below for how UHE dismissed the possibility of the cranes being disabled.</p><p>The heavy and narrowed flow was pulled into the erosion centers and worsened them, already causing a new, swerving flow pattern by January, 2023 as an existing erosion center seems to migrate to join with new damage. It seemingly collapsed an attached roadway on June 1 or 2 before it spread under the dam itself in the final days. UHE helped maintain that flow and made sure the dam was holding a maximum and high-centered water load when it was undermined. </p><p>If anyone did set off some bombs just then, it would be quite a coincidence, precluding any blame on UHE for the fact that the dam was already set to collapse. Otherwise, they collapsed the dam. </p><p>If this had happened on accident or through no effort of theirs, UHE might have noted the situation emerging and done something to correct it. But they seem unaware or willfully ignorant of the danger as <i>they kept adding to it,</i> with a late and rather massive "spring irrigation." They gave a lot of reasons for this in advance, but then carried it way too far in the final 9 weeks with as little comment as possible, as if they hoped no one would notice until well after it was too late. </p></div><div><p></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">UHE and the Fall River Offensive, Winter Interlude</span></b></p><p>The history of this collapse plot may go back at least 9 months before its culmination. <a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/L_kakhovka?lang=en">Hydroweb</a> (theia-land.fr) shows water level at Lake Kakhovka back to 2016. The historic trend has the reservoir filled to a minimum of 15.5m and a maximum of 16.5m, with only slight and brief exceptions. Even after the Russians took over management in February, 2022, water levels were maintained within norms until the middle of September. But from then to the end, the level started fluctuating on an ominous scale, just passing the normal range between rapid spikes well below and well above it. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4dwYn9xr3kKZZtgueWZEz2BrXvbNLsgs8fQ9YXeS9_Ca1O593lpJMF0mOFIX9TBZRFZUrnLxucsZrAOT4x5eVG84VYiIw7OzGbqElkw5pypaplRSOFjjjjcBb8OKLA2FC481r_H66-a2XqlYxFhopNEe4cRzB-4V-tqKgh7Ada5eE1spzZ1eS2DrGT8ur/s1343/Screenshot%20(4737).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="741" data-original-width="1343" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4dwYn9xr3kKZZtgueWZEz2BrXvbNLsgs8fQ9YXeS9_Ca1O593lpJMF0mOFIX9TBZRFZUrnLxucsZrAOT4x5eVG84VYiIw7OzGbqElkw5pypaplRSOFjjjjcBb8OKLA2FC481r_H66-a2XqlYxFhopNEe4cRzB-4V-tqKgh7Ada5eE1spzZ1eS2DrGT8ur/w640-h354/Screenshot%20(4737).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Here's the first part of that erratic span in detail, with two surges and then the record lows. (with notes, as explained below - normal range in pink). </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8XWZicZVIcbidSAWI_JMaA0JWcFRuJpVU4LV-FReORdF0mIMgVjgxBMB0NNH4RV1d0LsRGTFefnqSMVTf9eiXqKdisOnVrDI31dvInrh_vYTd9uGxjSvFVSurt3Q2iwAkOlVQqrjHtJWHu4XqsLjeFBCwE-2llx8PcITM4kndPM5FL-NO6ek_NFAV9cfY/s1343/Screenshot%20(4851).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="655" data-original-width="1343" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8XWZicZVIcbidSAWI_JMaA0JWcFRuJpVU4LV-FReORdF0mIMgVjgxBMB0NNH4RV1d0LsRGTFefnqSMVTf9eiXqKdisOnVrDI31dvInrh_vYTd9uGxjSvFVSurt3Q2iwAkOlVQqrjHtJWHu4XqsLjeFBCwE-2llx8PcITM4kndPM5FL-NO6ek_NFAV9cfY/w640-h312/Screenshot%20(4851).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>First, between readings from September 11 and October 4, the water level rose 0.5m, to just past normal, and rather quickly. A satellite photo of the 18th shows steady discharge from, I think, six floodgates across the middle, being 5, 7, and 9 and 13, 15 and 17. Sentinel Hub's less clear views show no flow on October 3, then heavy flow from the middle in all available views, including Oct. 8, 11, 16, 18, 28, and 31, before the gates are all closed by November 2. As shown above, that's when the level was down to the bottom of normal. </p><p>I'm not sure of the weather then, if heavy rainfall alone might explain this. It might be an early flooding effort, but not a very good one if so. This came after the dam's bypass lock was plugged in early September, but all 28 floodgates on the dam, all 6 at the HPP, and 2 canal pumping stations were functional in September. </p><p>The possible second try would be clearer. Major General Andrey Kovalchuk, head of Ukraine's 2022 Fall offensive in the Kherson area was famously cited in a December, 2022 Washington Post article on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20221229064018/https:/www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/">The Ukrainian counteroffensive that shocked Putin and reshaped the war (archive.org)</a> Kovalchuk spoke of a Ukrainian "test strike" on the Nova Kakhovka dam to "see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages." Kovalchuk's "test" attack was undated, but said to put three holes in the metal of a floodgate, and to be deemed success. A floodgate was damaged in a November 6 attack, per Russian sources. Floodgate 1 was seen badly damaged by early December, and gate 1 shows otherwise unexplained irregular flow, as if from that damage, by views of November 10 and 12. And so that was Ukraine's "test strike" - floodgate 1 was damaged, probably as said on November 6.</p><p>For some reason, there was new "concern" in Kyiv for the dam's wellbeing just then; it was feared that the Russians might try to destroy it soon. <a href="https://www.unian.net/war/kahovskaya-ges-pochemu-rossiyanam-ne-vygodno-vzryvat-stanciyu-12037134.html">UNIAN, Nov. 7: The expert told why it is not profitable for the Russians to blow up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station</a> "If the Kakhovskaya HPP is blown up, Crimea and the positions of the Russians will suffer, a military expert said - Military expert Serhii Grabskyi believes that the Russians should not do this "in view of the healthy sense"..... "But, understanding who we are dealing with," (probably Ukraine in a thin disguise) "such a version cannot be completely ruled out," he clarified." The article adds "Grabski is more inclined to think that statements about the undermining of the hydroelectric power station are a "horror story", an information and psychological attack." It's never clarified <i>who</i> had first made these statements. </p><p>These comments were <a href="https://t.me/energoatom_ua/10559">shared on Telegram</a> by SPRAVDI (Ukraine's Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security). It's as if they were trying to talk the Russians out of blowing up the dam, but the same thoughts might have already talked Ukraine into <i>doing it for them</i>.</p><p>Between November 13 and December 2, Hydroweb records show the water level on the Kakhovka reservoir rising even more rapidly than it did in September, at least 0.74m by December 2. For a reservoir this size in 19 days, that's substantial. It might have gotten even higher just before that or just after that reading, but before a net decline that appears by December 10. <b>Starting a week after the floodgates were damaged in a "test" about raising water levels, Ukraine was raising the water level.</b> This came after the lock was plugged, and after the HPP and its 6 gates were disabled by a disputed attack probably on October 24, but before the Khakovsky main canal pumping station was wrecked in disputed shelling on November 30. The Russians had both pumping station and now <strike>27</strike> 24 floodgates on the dam (gate 1 could not be opened after the damage, and - Add Aug. 3: then at least gates 26-28 were made inaccessible on the 11th, under the roadway and rails the Russians blew up). It might be a better time to expand on that "test" by raising the water input.</p><p>No floodgates at Kakhovka were open on November 12, but likely in response to the rising water, floodgate no. 5 was opened by a video dated the 13th, seemingly in the evening. Then the gantry cranes that open and close gates were moved, opening perhaps gate 3 as well by a satellite view of the 15th and finally 2 or 3 more were opened at some point, for 4 floodgates (3,5,6 & 7) pouring water. That last change might have been in early December, when the rise is suddenly reversed into a decline, about 2/3 as steep as in October (when 6 gates were opened). The north crane was positioned just above gate 8, but never got it opened before the cranes froze. It seems they never moved again until they fell into the river in June. Again, the Ukrainians might have simply switched off power to the cranes and, if so, the Russians probably could<i> not</i> change that situation, as widely assumed. </p><p>Whatever the cause of it, with the constant outflow of those 4 gates, the water level fell much like it did in October, but this time without stopping. Besides high output, there was low input as UHE's dams seemed to hold water back, for whatever reason, storing it through the winter. In April, there were warnings of flooding around the Kyiv HPP that, as <a href="https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1646442693797507072">Flash News would report</a> April 13, was "a result of the <b>skipping of spring irrigation through the Kyiv HPP.</b>" They decided to hold back their usual spring flow, risking local flooding of areas north of the capitol, maybe for some reason, like saving it up for some project. We'll come back to that.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9PaDXTA6k68TfnYKqItY0YUIg-uS4lgv3xqtCk87AZYtw9k5FK6J_oJB2OSqDW78o5z5TAv5qBil9m7mkby_ZSGQDL-fmBLnOJ3XIPWOX_7cZaIvnRkTtBbaOalM_A55F2xkElwWBvefESOYH1a-W-1zDiWXgSJHKo4y1BoPKa5Oe9wZm3B6WxhcjG3eQ/s1024/FomUS0sXwAEOVpX.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="1024" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9PaDXTA6k68TfnYKqItY0YUIg-uS4lgv3xqtCk87AZYtw9k5FK6J_oJB2OSqDW78o5z5TAv5qBil9m7mkby_ZSGQDL-fmBLnOJ3XIPWOX_7cZaIvnRkTtBbaOalM_A55F2xkElwWBvefESOYH1a-W-1zDiWXgSJHKo4y1BoPKa5Oe9wZm3B6WxhcjG3eQ/w400-h225/FomUS0sXwAEOVpX.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div>The Russians also syphoned water off Lake Kakhovka to their North Crimean canal and maybe by the "main" canal to largely Russian-held areas like Melitopol. Between all of this, the Kakhovka reservoir fell to record lows slightly below 14m by early February. (at right: a photo that was circulating at the time) </div><div><br /></div><div>One effect of this was giving Ukraine a supposed Russian crime to complain about. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/10/1155761686/russia-is-draining-a-massive-ukrainian-reservoir-endangering-a-nuclear-plant">A February NPR report</a> would relate how <b>"Ukrhydroenergo, Ukraine's hydro electric company believes the discharge is being done deliberately by the Russians,"</b> hoping to harm Ukraine with low water levels. Among the things threatened: local agriculture (mostly in Russian-occupied areas) - the North Crimean canal (and water for the Russians there) - the cooling pond for the ZNPP (Russian-occupied and managed, but in no immediate danger as long as its cooling pond remained full). This comes besides the losses in hypothetical hydropower, if the plant hadn't been disabled by attacks already in the fall (and if the HPP were running, it's not clear where the energy would have gone). <p><b><span style="font-size: large;">UHE and Pressure Plans in February</span></b></p><p>On February 8 UHE informed its followers on Telegram that <a href="https://t.me/energoatom_ua/11841">"International influence is needed to eliminate threats on the Dnieper cascade. "</a> This related an interesting meeting on the theme that occurred two days earlier.</p><p></p><blockquote><p>On February 6, an extraordinary meeting of the State Commission on Technogenic and Environmental Safety and Emergencies was held under the chairmanship of Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal. </p><p>The Commission considered a number of important issues, including the state of filling the cascade of the Dnieper reservoirs and possible risks to the water supply of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The participants heard information from the Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources, as well as the First Deputy Head of the ZOVA Hennadii Timchenko, other officials on the water level in the Kakhovka reservoir and possible negative consequences in case of its further reduction."</p><p><b>According to the observations of Ukrhydroenergo experts, the large volume of water discharged through the Kakhovskaya HPP is <i>not due to its damage, but to the deliberate actions of the Russian occupiers</i></b>, <b>who opened the plant's sluices, fearing that the Ukrainian military would forge the Dnieper. </b></p></blockquote><p></p><p>It was UHE that promised the PM, the president, and the world that the occupiers could close the floodgates or open more, even though they likely could not. The UHE experts claim the gates weren't damaged, which was mostly true. But they didn't mention whether they had power, which they apparently did not have. If Kyiv's answer based on this advice was to send enough water it could withstand more floodgates opening, and then any disaster followed on their failing to do so, UHE assured them it would be the Russians' own fault. From a "Technogenic and Environmental Safety and Emergencies" perspective, it could not be blamed on Ukraine. </p><p><b></b></p><blockquote><b>In this regard, the Prime Minister ordered the preparation of informational materials for the President of Ukraine regarding the <i>real situation</i></b> around the Kakhovskaya HPP and reservoir in order to give it <b>public international publicity</b>. In the current situation, the only real way out of the situation is international pressure on the occupier to force it to close its doors and <b>prevent humanitarian, environmental and nuclear catastrophes from unfolding.' </b></blockquote><p></p><p>In the following days, that NPR article for one (Feb. 10), told the outside world about "the real situation," aided by Ukraine/NAFO meteorology ally David Helms. Everyone was worried about the falling water level at Lake Kakhovka, due to the Russians willfully keeping so many floodgates wide open. Kyiv had raised international public pressure on the occupiers.</p><p>With this public backing and those assurances, Kyiv also pursued a more direct, national, and secret policy of <i>water </i>pressure to go with that. They had extra water stored up behind the 5 Ukrainian-controlled dams in the "Dnieper Cascade" and, as part 2 outlined, they had these send all the water they could into Lake Kakhovka, along with extra-heavy rain in April. This would be overseen by UHE, and all of the water had to pass in shifts through at least the final dam at the Dnipro HPP, next to Zaporizhzhia, which would handle the direct injections all the way. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf9sVmOOPqxSnQMaoI2o4bRdav0cSAct1-O4K18aaGnr1u-qF9gDMNrp7BINIWUmvzp4ZP3_AUGp1plAz5EPLnjDrhDOUYxspzyHsxl3LDF5XiCt0c7fUnc4qupq4dCFa2TyOqN2W5BVnuSD9FPuZUWA8kADXExzNH7zeyb3oFP7U7zbZGQ_dlL09ipNPp/s1280/Dnipro_HPP_2.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="960" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf9sVmOOPqxSnQMaoI2o4bRdav0cSAct1-O4K18aaGnr1u-qF9gDMNrp7BINIWUmvzp4ZP3_AUGp1plAz5EPLnjDrhDOUYxspzyHsxl3LDF5XiCt0c7fUnc4qupq4dCFa2TyOqN2W5BVnuSD9FPuZUWA8kADXExzNH7zeyb3oFP7U7zbZGQ_dlL09ipNPp/w300-h400/Dnipro_HPP_2.jpeg" width="300" /></a></div>Interestingly, it was just then - Feb. 9 or 10 - that the same Dnipro HPP was damaged in an attack, as reported by a few pro-Russian sources at the time, and some pro-Ukrainian ones a bit later. <a href="https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1681484602265980928">See my Twitter thread</a> and note there's probably more to learn, but it was so hard to find I put that off. A BBC report, for one, mentioned a February attack (undated) and also an earlier attack in December. For no obvious reason, <b>the UHE website and Telegram channel make no mention of either of these or any attacks</b>, that I could locate, until President Zelensky visited on March 27, when photos and video of damage were published: "the consequences of Russian missile attacks on the Dnipro hydroelectric power station, in particular, they inspected the building and power equipment, which suffered significant destruction." (<a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3275">UHE on Telegram</a>). That video and <a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3276">another</a> and some photos I found (link... - one at right) show severe damage to the southwest corner of HES-1, with <b>smoke still rising from the rubble</b>, as if it were from a new attack in late March, a third attack to go pretty much unreported. </div><div><p></p><p>The direction of fire is unclear to me, but the damage suggests it's <a href="https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1681662481591308288">from the left/north (Ukraine) or the right/south (Russia)</a> - not from east or west. I think from the north is better suggested, but that's not certain, and the logic of either side doing this raises questions. In brief:</p><p>The February attack could give a quiet impression that Russia wanted low water so badly they attacked the one dam that might slake their thirst. The proper response would be to spite the Russians by finally sending more water, as they may have already planned to do. Maybe the Russians sensed the flooding plot to come, and this was their way of warning that off, but it sadly backfired. Did they provoke a counterattack here? </p><p>Or did Kyiv provoke their own plan on Russia's behalf? They might have adequate motive in December or February, and more so in late March. It might sound bizarre, but consider if they were engaged in a plot to destroy a dam, they might risk some repairable damage to another dam, if that served some purpose as a trigger. You would think they'd make more public noise about a false-flag attack, or about a real attack, for that matter. But maybe the revenge was too secret to draw attention to by even addressing this provocation openly. It might be for "internal consumption." For example, dam operators might be angry, and willing to play along with a flooding plot as some kind of revenge. And that might apply especially if this worst attack were in late March, to "justify" the reckless flooding of April and May (see below). </p><p>Dnipro HPP outflow as seen in satellite views from <a href="https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=16&lat=47.86734&lng=35.07577&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2023-02-20T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-02-20T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&gain=2.3&gamma=0.5&downsampling=NEAREST&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22">Sentinel Hub EO Browser (sentinel-hub.com)</a>: outflow from the two power stations here, HES-1 and HES-2, is often hard to make out or easy to make up. But it seems several gates on the east end of HES-1 show a high output rarely seen last year. It starts early, by first views in January, continues on 2/5, and the same width but seemingly stronger on 2/20, and continuing 3/2 and forward. But on the receiving end, Lake Kakhovka clearly starts rising after Feb. 10, or right after that alleged attack at Dnipro, so their output probably increased around then. </p><p>It's not clear why, but two days later, on February 12, <a href="https://t.me/novaya_kahovka_news/3478">video was posted</a> of Ukrainian drone attacks destroying cameras at Kakhovka HPP, Everyone there could see the new attack anyway, as the water started pouring in. At first, it would look like a good thing in the parched circumstances, but that would change.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">UHE and the Spring River Offensive</span></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDblcb3tnlz_CecPuB8OuCw2PxTBHuh870ooKt68HIn-h1Frgx6jYNYcfo6s_chlgHrqANwGyVqrZsY5mwtthL0H-8svG3cMF51aOKjsS1H9faoYxOUGS1XnvNEVLz0wU8v5IzFri3qTFwM0h0FnQrUk4OultKAkISZcK2Sg7lPMyaNdjHeNq_9ebTvB47/s1360/Screenshot%20(4742).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1360" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDblcb3tnlz_CecPuB8OuCw2PxTBHuh870ooKt68HIn-h1Frgx6jYNYcfo6s_chlgHrqANwGyVqrZsY5mwtthL0H-8svG3cMF51aOKjsS1H9faoYxOUGS1XnvNEVLz0wU8v5IzFri3qTFwM0h0FnQrUk4OultKAkISZcK2Sg7lPMyaNdjHeNq_9ebTvB47/w400-h219/Screenshot%20(4742).png" width="400" /></a></div>With the winter thaw, and perhaps two months of held-back water, the northern reservoirs had unusually high levels in the early spring, ahead of unusually heavy rains in late April. Lake Kremenkutska is the other big reservoir in the Dnieper cascade, well north of Kakhovka. Each lake usually held nearly half the water in the system. See in <a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/L_kremenchutska?lang=en">Hydroweb's water volume log</a> how Kremenchutska prepared for the heavy mid-April rains - it filled massively over February and March with little output, it seems, rising from 0.5 to 3.5-3.7 cubic kilometers. </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHHeAn6pP30WaNL5r1_MzePThs-Dkg4xe0Vu_254vGbAop6TYMJ_Slc1BpLTFH8wtK-eMBoQCVuAraNp4Vux3zM3bgv0QimNsW4o5CGJcC1enSSKjjjHIaUEKayuv570qRLPL72V9DL8hA0NY7-xNil-tODjGobccyz-VLdhQ4ecsBvG7H5rOA3xa-eCfI/s969/Screenshot%20(5058)b.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="633" data-original-width="969" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHHeAn6pP30WaNL5r1_MzePThs-Dkg4xe0Vu_254vGbAop6TYMJ_Slc1BpLTFH8wtK-eMBoQCVuAraNp4Vux3zM3bgv0QimNsW4o5CGJcC1enSSKjjjHIaUEKayuv570qRLPL72V9DL8hA0NY7-xNil-tODjGobccyz-VLdhQ4ecsBvG7H5rOA3xa-eCfI/s320/Screenshot%20(5058)b.png" width="320" /></a></div>It did much the same in years before, but not this quickly and not this early. This might invite disaster once the heavy April rains came in. The level seems to hold steady even then, so a lot must have been shed, and several entries are missing (see lack of dots on those straight lines between mid-April and mid-June). </div><div><br /></div><div>Multiple floodgates are seen pouring in Sentinel Hub views from April 24 to May 4, so for at least that span. April 29 view at right. </div><div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsdxJ-I7qkWaLBrTr7opmITVs2fMw5yvVt3qQ5qSJDeLNJxIfPuPozJGsmbWv_utdBac2heja8y4u7qIaUo_M6DMkrr0Cow1ILPUSF2yQfnyvkeL8AlhZYnt4aTNvGNxJu-SIrYHbt_lyJzsXZujtN4Vneaqgnv7afzwVw3yNUCjenIwnJwG__SPZtmTzS/s1280/FtwlHDpX0AAOH_A.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1023" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsdxJ-I7qkWaLBrTr7opmITVs2fMw5yvVt3qQ5qSJDeLNJxIfPuPozJGsmbWv_utdBac2heja8y4u7qIaUo_M6DMkrr0Cow1ILPUSF2yQfnyvkeL8AlhZYnt4aTNvGNxJu-SIrYHbt_lyJzsXZujtN4Vneaqgnv7afzwVw3yNUCjenIwnJwG__SPZtmTzS/w320-h400/FtwlHDpX0AAOH_A.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>As noted, Kyiv HPP to the north was holding winter melt until mid-April before it shed some and helped maintain that high level at Kremenchutska. <a href="https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1646442693797507072">Flash News would report April 13</a>: "In Kyiv, the Dnipro may overflow its banks. The first level of danger has been declared, the Ukrhydrometeorological Center reported. "As a result of the <b>skipping of spring irrigation through the Kyiv HPP</b>, the water level of the Dnipro River in Kyiv and Boryspil district of the Kyiv region may reach dangerous levels of the initial flooding of areas adjacent to the riverbed," the message says." On April 15-18 photos appeared of flooding around the capitol. <a href="https://twitter.com/Geoff_WarNews/status/1647232587906072576">https://twitter.com/Geoff_WarNews/status/1647232587906072576</a> -- <a href="https://twitter.com/suspilne_news/status/1648348339019063296">https://twitter.com/suspilne_news/status/1648348339019063296</a></div><div><p></p><p>This state would continue a few days, then rapidly subside, with a 10cm drop <a href="https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1648993613127335938">reported by Flash News</a> in one day (4/20 vs. 4/19). Sentinel Hub views show a new heavy flow from open floodgates at Kyiv HPP on April 22 and 25, new since an April 7 view, and quiet again by May 2. (see below) This was sent to the Kaniv reservoir and then passed (4/17 view below with several gates open) into Lake Kremenchutska. There it would replace the excess water just sent on, and this new excess would be sent on in the same way. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzmBtuR_m84yhTfIQIo4ByqiicF9XxGmixo1RPBTGrd8dJFnMqtgaky1JHfYz7QS_3AfeSC-87EPB3Bwf1PYtEjRyc78rOwgBLxaeRzE2Wnmgnict-p0dQvmRa8i7BTvI8T2K34z6a5bKM0dK7X3CgXBCfOV4LPRXHaClhKxSo4fysq_Zj3gaHdeO7TpDb/s889/Screenshot%20(5057).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="475" data-original-width="889" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzmBtuR_m84yhTfIQIo4ByqiicF9XxGmixo1RPBTGrd8dJFnMqtgaky1JHfYz7QS_3AfeSC-87EPB3Bwf1PYtEjRyc78rOwgBLxaeRzE2Wnmgnict-p0dQvmRa8i7BTvI8T2K34z6a5bKM0dK7X3CgXBCfOV4LPRXHaClhKxSo4fysq_Zj3gaHdeO7TpDb/w640-h342/Screenshot%20(5057).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Wider flood situations at other reservoirs on the Dnieper were reported in April and May, largely by pro-Russian sources and generally denied by UHE and Ukrainian ones. At several points, it seems disaster was invited, briefly accepted, and then sent downstream in shifts to correct and then drastically over-correct the engineered shortage at Kakhovka. It all seemed to make complete sense, up to a point.</p><p>In part 2 - <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/did-ukraine-break-dnipro-river-and-nova.html">Did Ukraine Break the Dnipro River and the Nova Kakhovka Dam?</a> - , I documented the overall decline on the upper Dnieper as Kakhovka was forcibly filled, via Hydroweb virtual stations that recorded a net drop at several points, usually around 20cm, between late March and late May. Widespread missing entries make it unusually hard to track in detail, but the big picture is clear enough - water was stored up and then rapidly shed to flood Kakhovka all spring. The rest of this post adds some to that picture.</p><p>After Kyiv, Kaniv, and Kremenchutska, water was sent to Kamianske HPP and then Dnipro HPP (see reference map below), There it would replace a new outpour that began by early April, in turn answering the suction of a dried-up Lake Kakhovka. And so excess water was on Kyiv's streets in mid-April, then shunted down probably to Kakhovka in time to assist in the dam collapse there 6 weeks later.</p><p>As the water level there remained low but steady in late March, UHE and its general director Ihor Syrota kept playing up the danger of a new Russian drawdown, <b>sowing public reasons why increasing the flow to Kakhovka might be a good idea.</b> On March 24, <a href="https://uhe.gov.ua/media_tsentr/novyny/manipulyacii-rosiyan-iz-zatvorami-kakhovskoi-ges-ne-mayut-logichnogo">uhe.gov.ua</a> and <a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3261">UHE on Telegram</a> announced: "Since the middle of February, the issue of the threat of the Russians draining the Kakhovsky Reservoir has become acute." This sounds like it's gotten worse, but the levels were <i>improving</i> exactly since mid-February. Syrota is again quoted: "The manipulations of the Russians with the gates of the Kakhovskaya HPP have no logical explanation." Again, my best guess is Ukraine turned off the power to the cranes, hoping to maximize the ensuing erosion. I doubt they have any better reason to suspect the Russians were intentionally - and illogically - keeping the same 4 gates open for months on end, when their final plan was to blow the thing up with bombs. </p><p>The same message cited a Syrota interview with "BBC journalists" to say that "<b>Ukrhydroenergo hopes that it will be possible to maintain this reservoir level by June." </b></p><p>On March 27 Syrota again spoke to the media. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-fears-nuclear-plant-could-face-dangerous-water-cooling-shortage-2023-03-27/">As Reuters reported</a>, he "voiced concern about what would happen if water levels fell further at the Kakhovka reservoir ... The level has fallen because Russian troops ... have let some water out through sluice gates, he said." After speaking as if the levels were still declining, "Syrota said the level had risen since then thanks to the winter thaw" and to UHE's dams passing some of that along, in part to just be wasted out those 4 open floodgates: "They (the Russians) are discharging a certain volume and <b>we have raised the level</b> to 14.30 metres from 13.50-13.60 metres. But still the gates (of the dam) are open," Syrota said. </p><p>"We have raised the levels," he says, and UHE "hopes that it will be possible to maintain this reservoir level by June." They wanted to keep a high input to Kakhovka, hoping to outpace the Russians' floodgates. Those never did vary their pace, but it seems UHE always anticipated they would, and chronically pre-corrected for it. It would be a massive task, but they made it look easy, outpacing the steady outflow and "maintaining" the level all to heck by early June. That "hope" seemingly guided their efforts in between. </p><p>UHE never mentioned any danger of OVER-filling the reservoir. It's as if the idea had never occurred to them. And so, perhaps without noticing, through April and May they raised the level at Lake Kakhovka further and further, to the normal range and well past it, until the reservoir was 100% full by early May. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha2yKrTLZq16uB8cGngPmgq5mrdd0hso7Ixdn0klb61-7-iVpO2jTyyA1KIuzrnjVpxzhNBJL8WY3KWE_ZjYaMMliaTS_M7im3RBHnEgZgvWo_o2rcRAfiK6ksoj7eQyvAYUf9X8m0-qMrYLvRRpzjyep6gsHvKVl3qfoVAlXfMloH_DCOBDHqSHcZdTwc/s1079/Screenshot%20(5017).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1079" data-original-width="661" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha2yKrTLZq16uB8cGngPmgq5mrdd0hso7Ixdn0klb61-7-iVpO2jTyyA1KIuzrnjVpxzhNBJL8WY3KWE_ZjYaMMliaTS_M7im3RBHnEgZgvWo_o2rcRAfiK6ksoj7eQyvAYUf9X8m0-qMrYLvRRpzjyep6gsHvKVl3qfoVAlXfMloH_DCOBDHqSHcZdTwc/w392-h640/Screenshot%20(5017).png" width="392" /></a></div><a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3382">UHE boasted on April 19</a>, even as peak rains were expected on the 22nd, "As of April 19, the water supply situation has stabilized. Now the flood is receding. #Ukrhydroenergo hydroelectric power stations on the #Dnipro and #Dniester regulate [water] levels, avoid flooding, and continue controlling discharges in compliance with safety standards." <p></p><p>This is also about when the video appeared of Dnipro HPP pouring water, which some would later say was filmed AFTER the dam's collapse in June. Twitter user Aurora Borealis would <a href="https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1648650874485448706">post this on 4/19, explaining</a> <b>"For the first time in several decades, 4 floodgates were opened</b> at the #Zaporizhzhia HPP to release water and save the central Ukraine from flooding." The video shows water pouring from at least 4 floodgates and perhaps more. It pans to show the river full of foam, with the outflow from HES-1 visible on the right, also sending water downstream. HES-2 across the way might be doing the same. </p><p><b>This marks a major escalation in the river offensive. </b>It didn't start on the 19th, but earlier. Sentinel Hub EO Browser views show this flood of perhaps more than 4 gates <a href="https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=13&lat=47.86414&lng=35.05212&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2023-04-16T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-04-16T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&gain=2.3&gamma=0.5&downsampling=NEAREST&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22">by April 16</a>. That's after no views since March 27, when it seems no gates were open (see below). It's on March 29 that a new level is quickly achieved at Kakhovka, then between April 2 and 9 it increases a bit in speed, holding that pace for about a month. So that's probably when Dnipro was first opened like this - maybe 2 gates around March 28/29, then more in early April. Recall as noted above there may have been a new attack on HES-1 around March 26. Did an attack precede this outpour, like may have happened in February? </p><p>The floodgates were pouring some three weeks before that video, and Lake Kakhovka would pass the normal range to a dangerous level a few days after it. This was done "in compliance with safety standards," of course, and "to save the central Ukraine from flooding" but it would prove terribly unsafe and cause severe flooding in the Russian-occupied south a few weeks later.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzB_7jlEE11UuuG_ItC4NGT5U9HFvy773ZHSHcsTu9NrnjLHuJ1fUW4OHRPT32SbLQxxfbaWGVNiWNQgooXA5OcvnSzuEWpKZsjmudAr1eZ19ViTBJutQ8KL4QpwBnz8dReHCcQkFFgC35VCj3MKYXX-wXgTkrJSzBMoKjgmHlPatv6EqbBmgS3f1epgz9/s1179/Screenshot%20(5026).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="1179" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzB_7jlEE11UuuG_ItC4NGT5U9HFvy773ZHSHcsTu9NrnjLHuJ1fUW4OHRPT32SbLQxxfbaWGVNiWNQgooXA5OcvnSzuEWpKZsjmudAr1eZ19ViTBJutQ8KL4QpwBnz8dReHCcQkFFgC35VCj3MKYXX-wXgTkrJSzBMoKjgmHlPatv6EqbBmgS3f1epgz9/w640-h298/Screenshot%20(5026).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3397">On April 20</a>, UHE board member Stephen Laird Walsh visited Dnipro HPP in an army helmet, in light of the recent, little-noted attack(s) in December, February, and/or late March. He posed frowning with a weapon remnant, and smiling in front of the UHE-controlled floodgates pouring away. He's seen bemoaning one attack weapon, and blissfully unaware of the other one raging behind him. </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXsmW2pQ0nwXAIqsKEBkJAukfn6n9QoFNh6Bq0ziTyicVrj0w1lNVBjEQMFtyVJ19ArUbMc4qk75tESzuQLuP8Ya4lwWUNBEjhCWCUIOE2pn4Gn4fBvOWxbWEtYvt9eKEMVSum7iIntF2utQ7Vl6pm_qverrOiNEQEh_01n3_0CU-22rr7iYB5izeOGOJH/s1200/photo_2023-07-18_05-49-46.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1200" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXsmW2pQ0nwXAIqsKEBkJAukfn6n9QoFNh6Bq0ziTyicVrj0w1lNVBjEQMFtyVJ19ArUbMc4qk75tESzuQLuP8Ya4lwWUNBEjhCWCUIOE2pn4Gn4fBvOWxbWEtYvt9eKEMVSum7iIntF2utQ7Vl6pm_qverrOiNEQEh_01n3_0CU-22rr7iYB5izeOGOJH/w640-h480/photo_2023-07-18_05-49-46.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br />Sentinel Hub views show this flow continuing to at least April 26, but it's done by May 6, and these floodgates seem to stay off thereafter. The Kakhovka reservoir records being 100% full by May 8, but by the speed of rise to the last reading on 4/28, it would be full around May 2, The major flooding lasted about one month. A light output from the two HPPS, HES-1 and HES-2 seems to continue that whole time and remain after, seen running on 5/6, and in all clear views: May 16 and 21, and even on June 5. This smaller input must have roughly matched the outflow from Kakhovka, as the level was maintained that whole month to collapse. </div><div><br /></div><div>After the collapse, HPP output seems to continue, and it looks kind of like one dam sluice gate on the east end was opened AFTER the collapse, as seen on 6/20 to now (7/30), but "pouring" just the same in every view except for getting a bit bigger - it's more of the riverbed exposed after the reservoir drained away, where some trees were often visible alongside HES-2 - a sort of natural divider there. So FWIW, I see no sign of serious flooding after the collapse, and there is no great reason for it - the military probably wanted the reservoir gone and then dried up, not endlessly flooding. They would want Russian defenses washed away in a flood, not left underwater forever.</div><br /><div>Now for the story in data. Below is the record on the receiving end of this over-zealous "flood-prevention" work that caused one of the greatest modern floods: Lake Kakhovka water level from Hydroweb, February to June, with notes. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCH96EoWOJ-FN1QRZidisnlv0Oj0Jvdofhl8A_45qo3wl_X1SKnW9oO-ogmxHWSI9rM8hhaa88nT2Wdfr6eMLTPdt9jD7NUds8BfH5Q1Y1dj0hm5XUxuyk7J_B-QdbzcWZouGbvIsTYYuVdC1UGvV8sRitdK9A2GEaraGkwt-AxSUTgD5-IjmoLVYaUKge/s1343/Screenshot%20(4738).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="1343" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCH96EoWOJ-FN1QRZidisnlv0Oj0Jvdofhl8A_45qo3wl_X1SKnW9oO-ogmxHWSI9rM8hhaa88nT2Wdfr6eMLTPdt9jD7NUds8BfH5Q1Y1dj0hm5XUxuyk7J_B-QdbzcWZouGbvIsTYYuVdC1UGvV8sRitdK9A2GEaraGkwt-AxSUTgD5-IjmoLVYaUKge/w640-h322/Screenshot%20(4738).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div>Note that 4 floodgates keep pouring from the reservoir - at the same rate, barring pressure difference - this entire time. What changes is mainly how input matches and then exceeds that output, and keeps exceeding it. The maximum possible level was reached before May 8. Input didn't stop then but lessened, keeping a rough parity through May, with a tendency to decline - so input remained a bit less than what the 4 gates released. There was a slight decrease by May 10, and that was held to May 20. Then a mystery refill was recorded the 21st, possibly from increased input. That's corrected by the 25th, and we see a slight improvement to maybe 99% full just before the end. Despite the variations, in all views of May 11, 29, June 1, 2 and 5, the dam is overtopping - full to the brim and splashing over. Somehow, even higher levels than this can be measured somewhere on the reservoir.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Note the input isn't completely heedless or blind. The people at Dnipro dam knew when the reservoir was at 100% full and chose then to decrease their input so as to just maintain that level. This shows awareness of the situation and responsiveness to it. So why was the response generally so imbalanced, so grossly at odds with professional safety standards? </b></div><div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: bold; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpre1nZkAVCM9oU5ovjImDaJTd1rSUAKfE5IitI2ZnGNgbFbaujFiFawypqOCNuDjhcrr87V0Okuc1SLwawnpDymkWHorSGHv-fFbgZ0UWMyP3bhZmJ6F1NOg7miFbXYv3OHO0suf7nTWMZhIGDvSLWVGWXNYP-aSTxCLF7k2SRi77ifhxmUWs0A9kyBEu/s1276/Dams_map.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1276" data-original-width="1062" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpre1nZkAVCM9oU5ovjImDaJTd1rSUAKfE5IitI2ZnGNgbFbaujFiFawypqOCNuDjhcrr87V0Okuc1SLwawnpDymkWHorSGHv-fFbgZ0UWMyP3bhZmJ6F1NOg7miFbXYv3OHO0suf7nTWMZhIGDvSLWVGWXNYP-aSTxCLF7k2SRi77ifhxmUWs0A9kyBEu/w333-h400/Dams_map.png" width="333" /></a></div></div><div>At right is a map of all dams and falling vs. rising levels at Hydroweb virtual stations, from part 2. Adding here from a look at Sentinel Hub views for the other dams: between cloudy and blank days, there are some good views for each facility. With one example link each, and going north-to-south, all the usable views show: </div><div><b>- Kyiv HPP: </b>quiet 4/7, some floodgates pouring 4/22, <a href="https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=50.58233&lng=30.49098&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2023-04-25T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-04-25T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&gain=2.3&gamma=0.5&downsampling=NEAREST&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22">4/25</a>, quiet 5/2, unclear on other days<div><b>- Kaniv HPP:</b> quiet 4/7, pouring from 3 floodgates on 4/17, 2 gates <a href="https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=13&lat=49.76614&lng=31.44721&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2023-04-22T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-04-22T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&gain=2.3&gamma=0.5&downsampling=NEAREST&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22">4/22</a>, prob. 4/24 (just off-frame), and on May 2. unclear May 4, 7 & 9, but quiet by May 12.</div><div>- <b>Kremenchuk HPP: </b>- no good April views until solid output seen 4/24 between the clouds, and clearly on <a href="https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=15&lat=49.08118&lng=33.2514&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2023-04-29T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-04-29T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&gain=2.3&gamma=0.5&downsampling=NEAREST&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22">4/29</a> and 5/4, seemingly 2+ floodgates open, then quiet by May 9.</div><div><b>- Kamianske HPP: </b>solid output from most of the gates on <a href="https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=15&lat=48.5497&lng=34.54217&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2023-04-19T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-04-19T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&gain=2.3&gamma=0.5&downsampling=NEAREST&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22">4/19 view</a>, perhaps less gates on 4/24, 4/26, quiet again 5/6</div><div><b>- Dnipro HPPs:</b> as mentioned, heavy floodgate pouring seen 4/16, 4/26, and done by May 6 - probably running late March to early May, with the HPPs sending water the whole time from January to June and after. </div></div></div><div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Extra-Quiet for the Final Stretch</span></b></p><p>From the Dnipro floodgates opening to the Kakhovka dam bursting is approximately nine weeks of what almost has to be a deliberate flooding effort. This came after the dam's lock was plugged, after the HPP and its 6 gates were disabled, after the Khakovsky main canal pumping station was wrecked, after the North Crimean canal had all its reservoirs filled, limiting its usefulness, after floodgate 1 was damaged, and after the gantry cranes were disabled, allowing no change in the floodgates. They had the four frontline floodgates trying to relieve the pressure and, most likely, little else that could be done. They boasted of getting one HPP floodgate open in early May, and the visual record might suggest increased flow just then, but it somehow stops again within a few days. (see part 3) It was in that badly plugged and unmanageable situation that UHE's input outpaced Kakhovka's output so massively they filled the reservoir to 100% and then kept it close to that for a month. </p><p>Allied sources unwittingly drew attention to some important effects of UHE's unorthodox river management, which the company itself seemed to ignore. Of course they tried to blame it on Russia. </p><div><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/world/europe/dam-flood-ukraine-kakhovka.html">NYT, May 17</a>, complaining of the dangerously high water level: "It is unclear exactly how the water level rose so significantly since then. But David Helms, a former U.S. Air Force and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorologist who researches the dam, said that Russian forces seem to have kept too few gates open to control the flow of winter snowmelt and spring rains. Likening the effect to a leaky bucket, Mr. Helms said that too much water has been entering the reservoir. “What the river is doing is dumping a lot of water in,” Mr. Helms said. “And it’s far exceeding the discharge rate.”</div><div><br /></div><div>Helms makes no sense. He was just complaining the Russians left too many gates open, and now he says it's too few. Leaky buckets let too much water out, the opposite of the supposed problem. And the river "dumping a lot of water in" was <i>controlled by Ukraine, so Ukraine was dumping in far too much water</i>. There is no way the Russian managers could stop the input from Dnipro HPP, and they likely could not open any more floodgates. </div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYbY7J8GIfRU0CMlUTG6hUBJiLHP9rOwLFVvfFdCXPNdC9OZIevKs_uiQB1uCcELPEl5CjnRF-WSoknT_4BmqVuMU3I2EheFk8MlHoUfV-Mz-wiFKPBMyzVMQSI2XnEroqYZLmiwXWnue9uZklfBVxnTiMIEiZy_emsfcAxkp7u_JtMmc5uhdzuQO4idRR/s800/Screenshot%20(4778).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYbY7J8GIfRU0CMlUTG6hUBJiLHP9rOwLFVvfFdCXPNdC9OZIevKs_uiQB1uCcELPEl5CjnRF-WSoknT_4BmqVuMU3I2EheFk8MlHoUfV-Mz-wiFKPBMyzVMQSI2XnEroqYZLmiwXWnue9uZklfBVxnTiMIEiZy_emsfcAxkp7u_JtMmc5uhdzuQO4idRR/w400-h225/Screenshot%20(4778).png" width="400" /></a></div>Pro-Kyiv <a href="https://t.me/novaya_kahovka_news/4429">Nova Kakhovka news on April 28</a> shared a drone video of "spontaneous discharge of water due to damage to the Kakhovskaya HPP," mentioning "the high level of water in the reservoir and its powerful discharge in places of destruction." Note the divider between the dam and HPP outlets had its end crack free and settle at an angle, evidencing serious erosion near the dam. The Russians were pouring way too much water, and also not pouring nearly enough water. The reporters don't seem to care why that has become possible.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJSG34anXLT6G8Wy9OtSThLKhgbq-wUvoIuAwC_xUSo8YVbesEAbcKQZhPXX6GNOwfNZ_bxn1CYQ_BZNvD3NaLfJd0-VOhSBCV_KtdvOECCO7Kzqt45Ex_mFBhlt_26W5bbfMJLhKueGGTCBsOR2h7wLsL76g8r3yJHY43tfBRgJFC-kE3pbzglyjZXXFm/s1920/Screenshot%20(4771).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJSG34anXLT6G8Wy9OtSThLKhgbq-wUvoIuAwC_xUSo8YVbesEAbcKQZhPXX6GNOwfNZ_bxn1CYQ_BZNvD3NaLfJd0-VOhSBCV_KtdvOECCO7Kzqt45Ex_mFBhlt_26W5bbfMJLhKueGGTCBsOR2h7wLsL76g8r3yJHY43tfBRgJFC-kE3pbzglyjZXXFm/w400-h225/Screenshot%20(4771).png" width="400" /></a></div>The same Nova Kakhovka news would <a href="https://t.me/novaya_kahovka_news/4593">show another video on May 16</a>: "The video taken on May 11, 2023 shows that powerful streams of water are flowing uncontrollably through the open and partially destroyed by the occupiers locks [floodgates] of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power plant. The increased water level in the Dnieper River and the flooded coast in Nova Kakhovka can also be seen, ... as a result, the positions of the occupiers were flooded." Again they note the reservoir is full, even fuller now and clearly overtopping, despite pouring "uncontrollably" to disastrous effect, for the occupiers, whose fault it somehow was. </div><div><p></p><p>The high level and heavy output coexisting means the dam was sorely overloaded and unmanageable, especially under the battered circumstances. To the extent the outside world saw this problem, it seemed like something mysterious and probably Russian was to blame. But Ukraine's dam operators were keeping the pressure on, heedlessly or otherwise. </p><p>UHE was the agency making this happen, but they had nothing to publicly say about it, to acknowledge or deny it, let alone explain why. They had nothing new to say about this dam, aside from blaming Russia for all the existing damage and hitting them with the bill for it, and nothing about Lake Kakhovka, <i>except to note in late May that it was </i><b style="font-style: italic;">the one reservoir they had no comment on.</b> All Telegram entries from these days wherein UHE even mentions the endangered dam:</p><p><a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3278">Telegram, 3/28</a> Ihor Syrota: "We need significant funds to restore our facilities that were destroyed or damaged <b>as a result of enemy air attacks </b>... The Russian occupiers caused 16.7 billion hryvnias worth of damage to the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station alone." The Russians caused damage not just with theft and negligence but also with "air attacks?" Or is that just tacked on? Is their actual bookkeeping on this any clearer?</p><p><a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3292">Telegram 3/30</a>: "On this day, March 30, 1952, a historic event took place at the construction site of Kakhovskaya HPP - the first cubic meter of concrete was placed in the construction of the hydraulic unit!" On the 71st anniversary of that day, UHE was beginning or about to begin the lethal overflooding of Lake Kakhovka that would tear much of the dam away, but that first cubic meter might have remained.</p><p>On <a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3403">April 21</a> UHE said "We estimated the company's direct losses, including due to the occupation of the Kakhovskaya HPP, at approximately 1 billion dollars." <a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3528">May 17</a>: "special attention is paid to the issue of restoration of the Kakhovskaya HPP after de-occupation." They had raised the water level to 100% full a week or two earlier, and would seemingly add more around May 21, to help keep Lake Kakhovka full until the dam collapsed. <b>In this way they may have destroyed the dam before they could collect the money to restore it.</b> </p><p>On May 29 UHE would mention NK and its reservoir one last time before the collapse, <a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3569">announcing</a> "<b>the decline in water levels continues</b> ... As a result of water harvesting through the reservoirs of the Dnieper Cascade, fluctuations in water levels were observed within the range of 1-10 cm per day, with a predominance of subsidence. The volume of water in the cascade of the Dnipro reservoirs as of May 28 was equal to 47,616 cubic km, which is 3,768 cubic km higher than the volume of reservoirs at the normal support level (NPR), <b>without taking into account the Kakhovsky reservoir</b>, the volume of water in the cascade is equal to 27,116 cubic km .km (by 1,458 cubic km exceeds the volume of reservoirs at the NPR)."</p><p>Why were they not "taking into account the Kakhovsky reservoir," at least when speaking to the public? They had "raised the level" since March, "maintained" and even exceeded that level greatly, here at the cusp of June. Isn't that what they had promised? Don't they want to take credit for all their hard and well-organized work countering the Russian's drawdown plot, and doing it all while balancing upstream needs, as they boasted of rapidly falling levels at all of <i>their </i>reservoirs? </p><p>On June 1, as mentioned, UHE joined the International Hydropower Association (IHA), and then the roadway collapsed from UHE's erosion, probably accelerating it greatly. The final days saw more proud statements on their management of the river - aside from its final stretch, which they no longer mentioned. <a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3591">June 2</a>: "There is a decrease in the flow of water along the rivers. Water levels in the reservoirs of the Dnipro Cascade continue to decrease." Well, not at ALL of them. Mid-day on June 5 <a href="https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3594">they would repeat this</a>: <b>"As of June 5, the water level continues to decrease. Hydroelectric power plants carry out the passage of spring irrigation on the Dnieper Cascade through hydro units." </b></p><p>As of June 5, they continued to pour water from reservoirs in no danger on downstream, perhaps right into Lake Kakhovka, where the danger was so real it was about to become actual disaster. Its level hadn't risen in a month because it couldn't - it had been 100% full, despite still pouring from 4 gates AND overtopping. Erosion was taking down structures increasingly attached to the dam. At this point, collapse was all but certain in a matter of hours to days. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></p><p>If anyone did set off some bombs just then so the dam never did collapse on its own, it would be quite a coincidence. And if it was a Russian plot to store all that water and then blow the dam and cause maximum destruction - primarily of their own defenses and occupied villages and fields - why were UHE's dams still carrying out "passage of spring irrigation," helping that plot by sending them so much water right up to the end? </p><p>"Russia's plot" was probably Ukraine's plot and thus UHE's. They were quite likely assisting the Ukrainian military to collapse the dam and re-shape the battlefield to Kyiv's advantage. It's why they knew not to talk about the situation as they helped engineer it.</p><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWYadGFIimwUpBFntMBe47wg3WSt_A2T03oJYEv0LLfznA4UVGhDviFyKH7fXdm8viRX0lgTLougKYyroxi-o4wftGZOLgKk-JJcZwxieAnj1k3dnCH9jnohtG21MTSfVUiolpQltxF15wr-DftJ4rNqUKOWq92ZrlgXlGW-J-EaC5jHkhdJO74M6PwbMr/s1173/NK_Dam_UHE_Punch.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="647" data-original-width="1173" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWYadGFIimwUpBFntMBe47wg3WSt_A2T03oJYEv0LLfznA4UVGhDviFyKH7fXdm8viRX0lgTLougKYyroxi-o4wftGZOLgKk-JJcZwxieAnj1k3dnCH9jnohtG21MTSfVUiolpQltxF15wr-DftJ4rNqUKOWq92ZrlgXlGW-J-EaC5jHkhdJO74M6PwbMr/w400-h221/NK_Dam_UHE_Punch.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>It's not quite Chernobyl 2.0, but Ukhrhydroenergo was instrumental in this disaster. Through criminal conspiracy or a massive and probably criminal type of negligence, they caused the deaths of dozens to perhaps 100+ civilians, displaced tens of thousands, caused a wide-ranging "ecocide," contaminated water supplies, wrecked huge swathes of important crops, threatened disease outbreaks, destroyed hydropower potential, endangered a nuclear plant, and more. All the stuff they eagerly blamed on Russia was largely the result of UHE's own misguided actions. </div><div><br /></div><div>It's the kind of crime there should be a price to pay for. But it's also a crime that's very difficult to fix an Earthly price for, and one that assisted in the grand Western strategy of bleeding Russia, This calls for dealing Russia blows and devastation everywhere, and trying to hit them with the blame and the bill for all of it. So from the NYT to NPR and through any investigations by Western-controlled or compromised bodies, the Western-led "global community" will try to push this through on that same script, or at least prevent the truth from coming to light. </div></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-70159305601693184672023-07-25T08:39:00.009-07:002023-07-26T10:15:26.447-07:00Nova Kakhovka Dam: How the Dam Was Undermined<p><b><span style="font-size: large;">What Caused the Collapse of the Nova Kakhovka Dam? </span></b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Part 4: How the Dam Was Undermined</span></b></p><p><b>July 25, 2023</b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Bombs vs. Erosion and the "Paper of Record"</span></b></p><p><a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/did-ukraine-break-dnipro-river-and-nova.html">Part 2 in this series</a> covered the hydrologic overload that kept the reservoir of Lake Kakhovka 99-100% full for one month <i>despite</i> intense, non-stop outflow from 4 floodgates. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/nova-kahkovka-dam-four-frontline.html">Part 3</a> considered why those same 4 floodgates stayed open for 6 months straight, narrowing the heavy flow. That's still a mystery, but I suspect Ukraine turned off the power source, located on their bank of the river, for the gantry cranes needed to open and close the gates. As I'll explain here, <b>that constant, heavy, and narrow outflow seems likely to have fatally undermined the dam with erosion by early June.</b> I can't rule out that explosives were used to destroy the dam, but if so, it came with the coincidence that it was likely to come very down soon anyways. </p><p>We'll start with a widely-cited <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/06/16/world/europe/ukraine-kakhovka-dam-collapse.html">New York Times article</a> from ten days after the collapse that found for explosives over erosion, but in a very unsatisfying way. Their evidence, in summary: the seismic record suggests a blast, or rather the two blasts their story needs (debatable), US satellites were said to pick up "infrared heat signals that also indicated an explosion" - one of the 2 required (no details like exact time, degree, or location), and how from the deep central flow after collapse, it seemed like "the foundation had suffered structural damage" that couldn't be caused by any piddling rocket impact to the top, which might have made this partly Ukraine's fault. </p><p>By this, a bomb seems possible but far from proven. It could be done by either side if so, especially considering motive. But the writers skip this, and overlook the abnormal flooding and other clues to conclude the dam was doing well enough until the side with better access but unclear motive - the Russians - must have bombed it from the inside. That was another big clue for the Times: the Russians could do it from the inside, totally unseen by drones or satellites. That's eerily true! They <i>could</i> have ....</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX1CsJsEUYZqNB5YxwSczjFZyOIR5WLMJ7BUgXgt1CLfa5qUAm9H00Nk4HScTHibtOdFPGnynczS3kYyvSDhRaKFK7TyrRturEXg7nJ9esICLe1Z6mSo-XhxQ3-j76UREPiER5cLGkT6fg17Xc1iiEDN_Uo7ob0ZTuz6vFF1dROeMW6f0ZWGrd6n4MseDG/s286/NK_Dam_NYT_vs_Bluerpint.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="244" data-original-width="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX1CsJsEUYZqNB5YxwSczjFZyOIR5WLMJ7BUgXgt1CLfa5qUAm9H00Nk4HScTHibtOdFPGnynczS3kYyvSDhRaKFK7TyrRturEXg7nJ9esICLe1Z6mSo-XhxQ3-j76UREPiER5cLGkT6fg17Xc1iiEDN_Uo7ob0ZTuz6vFF1dROeMW6f0ZWGrd6n4MseDG/s16000/NK_Dam_NYT_vs_Bluerpint.jpg" /></a></div>The report points out that "the catastrophic failure of its underlying concrete foundation was very unlikely to occur on its own." It suggests the Russian bomb(s) were set in the "drainage gallery," a tunnel at the dam's "base" that ran to both sides of the river, but was guarded by Russia and presumably blocked to Ukraine. It turns out <b>the Times' graphic moves the tunnel well towards the bottom of the dam, compared to the blueprint design I've seen, and makes it bigger. </b>Here are the 2 views overlaid with notes added. A blast just below the floodgates would still be a serious issue for the upper structure, and might explain the observed flow, but it's far less likely to effect the deep foundation than their graphic implied. <div><br /></div><div>Erosion of the subsoil, in contrast, would <i>only</i> compromise the dam from its very base, although cracks would appear all over, especially at any prior damage points, and upper sections would still be more likely to tear free in the torrent. That is, the end effect could be about the same either way, as far as I know.</div><div><br /></div><div><div>Pause for Reference: 3D Blender model by Chris Kabusk, labels added. Gallery of views: <a href="https://imgur.com/gallery/4iCnEQL">Kakhovka Dam [Blender] - Imgur</a> </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrd_s31n14WGfdbz0obn1hQIhNa39x6vby48bX2-mnR-pr04dmpYfUU5DP6Z7kWupbTjN_hCVg1sgdHvKmvRC2zN8aqst_zzMt8vG00LpVreRXn-UV_otCZ00XTEK3iJR-pZNtiLHe-Dwh3XEpy4dFgR2fmrM8r-P-P_XQ_Vsx8s2G5iyZGxl1VjV2Rxgf/s2498/NK_Dam_model_overview_labels.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="879" data-original-width="2498" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrd_s31n14WGfdbz0obn1hQIhNa39x6vby48bX2-mnR-pr04dmpYfUU5DP6Z7kWupbTjN_hCVg1sgdHvKmvRC2zN8aqst_zzMt8vG00LpVreRXn-UV_otCZ00XTEK3iJR-pZNtiLHe-Dwh3XEpy4dFgR2fmrM8r-P-P_XQ_Vsx8s2G5iyZGxl1VjV2Rxgf/w640-h226/NK_Dam_model_overview_labels.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><p>The dam runs SE to NW (right to left here), 2/3 filled with 28 basic floodgates numbered right-to-left, done in red. Note that gates 3, 5,6 and 7 are raised, or open, as they were all through 2023. Gate 12 is actually red, somehow taller, or open but with another gate blocking the flow - it's effectively closed. Gate 1 and gates 26-28 at the far ends were closed but leaking from damage caused by both sides. Blue gantry cranes that open the gates are numbered the other way around and here are the south & north cranes, parked for months over gates 3 and 8. South/right end is the hydropower plant, its own 6 floodgates gates, and its own gantry crane (hidden behind in this view). The dam and HPP each have a water "outlet" running, as shown, to 100m from the water ramps, with a divider between the outlets. Most of this is atop the concrete "apron" or basin about 3m thick, with the inner part of the dam outlet covered in 4 meters of concrete. This model shows the entire apron/basin. I'm not certain just what kind of bottom there was past this.</p><p>And here's a short review of explosives at the dam. Some were fired in rockets by Ukraine, or some say by the Russians, from early August to early November, causing widespread but non-fatal damage near the HPP and floodgates 1-5. Then it seems Russians had blown part of the roadway off the top of the dam after they retreated last November (over gates 26-28), then "mined" it and/or planted explosives-filled cars on the remaining stretch, all to keep Ukrainian forces off the bridge. Those car bombs never detonated. One of the mines might have gone off during the collapse, injuring a seagull. None of it caused the collapse. </p><p>Kyiv also accuses the Russians of importing explosives into the dam's interior. By reports from dam employees, including to OSINTJOURNO, the Russians had blocked or "blew up" the north entrances to the drainage gallery to keep Ukrainians out. ("The Russians were concerned that the Ukrainians would misuse the drainage gallery of the dam" <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1671466281051078657">tweet</a>.) Then they reportedly mined it with explosives - likely smaller anti-personnel ones, in case anyone managed to break in. ("In March, the Russians already blew up the entrance from the northern side, and since then, they have completely undermined the drainage gallery by placing explosives at various locations in the "drainage holes" and "curtain grout holes"." <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1671466282472931330">tweet</a>) This isn't a certain fact, but it's likely enough. These "grout hole" bombs might be triggered by tripwires or motion sensors, or may be <b>triggered accidentally by an unexpected event, like the dam starting to collapse on its own. </b> </p><p>Bombs alone, as the Times proposes, would require 2 bombs or 2 phases. There was an initial blast and/or collapse at 2:35 am, after which the span from gates 1-9 were seen missing, and then a middle section of the HPP engine room also collapsed 20 minutes later, with a seismic reading that looks the most like explosives. As first published, with my labels, this may show a blast for 2 seconds, or perhaps several smaller ones. Then it shows 20 seconds of the dam collapsing, with cracks <i>even louder than that possible bomb(s) </i>- all 20 minutes AFTER another section must have been bombed with a notably quieter blast (not shown here). </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgChz0DsKYf218HfAwt6Wsevu5mdqLYxvBFAvgMoMjCNLabRCTPthNZVSzkG3t_vTbg4F_DLVa9qRV1_JqKcLJuZVh9AMoR9NGiwIX4heCGq4w4nkSiuotWY9p2aaFFEF38eFlH6pTRI8Jf1ySN7hqSa5q7dCF8_95Xpsw2ruPTZ02OZkjIhX9Huyd1mOlT/s960/FyHBg9kXsAMvRC7.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="374" data-original-width="960" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgChz0DsKYf218HfAwt6Wsevu5mdqLYxvBFAvgMoMjCNLabRCTPthNZVSzkG3t_vTbg4F_DLVa9qRV1_JqKcLJuZVh9AMoR9NGiwIX4heCGq4w4nkSiuotWY9p2aaFFEF38eFlH6pTRI8Jf1ySN7hqSa5q7dCF8_95Xpsw2ruPTZ02OZkjIhX9Huyd1mOlT/w640-h250/FyHBg9kXsAMvRC7.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>I don't know of any credible evidence for explosives in the HPP engine room, aside from its collapsing separately, and apparently with the louder signal shown above. But it's possible. Otherwise, the mined drainage gallery ran under the place, or maybe just up to it, with a direct doorway connection. NYT: the gallery is "reachable from the dam's machine room," and vice-versa. So for what it's worth, any Ukrainians who got into the tunnel without being blown up might be able to access the engine room as well. Some delayed blasts there or in the tunnel below, coming amid a partial collapse, could set that whole section floating down the river. </p><p>But then again, this might be a natural second phase of an ongoing collapse, with cracks that come on suddenly and read almost like a bomb blast. </p><p>Mining the drainage gallery sounds reckless, but the explosions might be small and non-fatal to the dam under normal circumstances. A collapse would be <b>abnormal circumstances</b> and there were more of these in the months leading up to it. It seems there was <b>heavy erosion</b> of a kind the Times' experts apparently didn't know about. They considered it an unlikely possibility when, as I'll show, it's closer to a visually proven reality. Gregory B. Baecher, an engineering professor at the University of Maryland "said it was possible, though unlikely, that water flow from the damaged gates somehow undermined the concrete structure where it sat on the riverbed." But he noted design features we'll consider below, including "a so-called “apron” of concrete on top of the riverbed to the downstream side of the dam," that would make this unlikely. This is exactly the right first impression to get, but there are second impressions in order here.</p><p>The article - if not their experts - did take note of some important evidence in this regard; <b>"On April 23, a small part of a wall connected to the power plant collapsed — possible evidence of erosion near the dam." </b>It's virtual proof of erosion, and it would happen under this same concrete apron. And if the same erosion somehow expanded in May and June, say under extreme water pressure, it might claim a big section of roadway they also noted collapsing, presumably from damage it had suffered in attacks: </p><p></p><blockquote><i>"On June 1, or early on June 2, part of the road that runs along the dam collapsed. Ukrainian HIMARS rocket strikes in August 2022 damaged that part of the road but did not hit the dam."</i></blockquote><p></p><p>Here are the best views of this (from Maxar) from May 28 and June 5. In between these views, sometime between other images of June 1 & 2 as it turns out, <b>the rocket-perforated section of roadway vanished, <i>along with two massive support columns that held it, and 2 attached flow guides around floodgates 2 and 3.</i></b> Dated graphic: "dislodged since March" is what NYT meant was dislodged on April 23, and "since 5/28" is what vanished on June 1/2. In the left view, note the flow guides marked with green curves, and how those are unevenly spaced - one that would collapse is already visibly slanting to the right by May 28.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirMX93bs6v-QuHLOr6GhKkOXwFnRru4jqdHeWPCzpEliQKz3Axe0KnIJgEgAnbO341BouvwN5C4orgoUoLiH3iNPtNupUkuzxSes_4HMqENc11nieLawMVZtgxp5IXip2S9-VEjGGiDZAOUovA60E921k8iYBu_03izv4O9LdvvxkHd1bgtqrC2hiWnsY3/s2116/NK_Dam_5-28-6-5_comp_b.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="932" data-original-width="2116" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirMX93bs6v-QuHLOr6GhKkOXwFnRru4jqdHeWPCzpEliQKz3Axe0KnIJgEgAnbO341BouvwN5C4orgoUoLiH3iNPtNupUkuzxSes_4HMqENc11nieLawMVZtgxp5IXip2S9-VEjGGiDZAOUovA60E921k8iYBu_03izv4O9LdvvxkHd1bgtqrC2hiWnsY3/w640-h282/NK_Dam_5-28-6-5_comp_b.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>If this collapsed from prior damage, it's not clear how the mammoth columns could be damaged so badly by fairly weak HIMARS rockets, or why this damage took perhaps ten months to finally give way, or <i>how it could spread to dislodge the flow guides as well.</i> </div><div><br /></div><div>In contrast, subsurface erosion was noted nearby, and might spread here, <b>especially with the aid of unseen rocket damage to that concrete "apron"</b>, and might undermine the apron enough that when it finally gave way, everything above had to come down, whatever prior damage it had. And either way, this collapse of major, heavy elements would cause further damage to the protective concrete, further worsening erosion. About 4 days later, the dam would collapse, apparently starting very near this zone, at floodgates 1-3. And that too might be related. And so, erosion by hydrologic scouring is likely THE or A key factor - the dam was likely set to collapse at any time, when Russia's bomb plot allegedly intervened.</div><div><p>As suggested in my part 2, and as I'll expand on in part 5, the water overload that contributed to this erosion <b>can only have been caused by Ukraine and its hydropower agency Ukrhydroenergo</b>, who controlled five reservoirs on the Dnieper feeding into Lake Kakhovka. These wound up at about normal levels in June, shedding heavy April rainfall <i>and </i>some of what they had before, at the same time Kakhovka was swollen to a disastrous level and kept there until the dam collapsed. The overload, injected directly by the various floodgates of the Dnipro HPP at Zaporizhzhia, was never lessened even as signs of impending disaster grew thicker in April, May, and early June. I'll address that some more in part 5.</p><p>Especially with the mysterious cranes/floodgates issue and other complications resulting from "disputed" shelling attacks over the fall, this looks like a deliberate plot, using the river as a weapon of mass destruction against the Russian invaders. While I can't rule out a Russian bomb plot, there's little logic to it. And <b>why would both sides have plots to destroy the dam culminating at the same time? </b>If there was a bomb plot, it would probably be Ukrainian and coordinated with their flooding plot. Why? Maybe just to have explosions seen, assumed as the cause, and used to blame the other side. </p></div><div><div>For most readers, this can be THE END. But other clues I'll relate in this post also consider how such erosion is even possible and/or just how it happened (some finer details). I'm not an expert in any of this, but I think my basic reasoning applied to the visual evidence is adequate to raise the question. Ideally, people with true expertise should have a look and help clarify the record. </div><div><br /></div><div>Below, I will consider:</div><div>* the serious concrete protection - why "unlikely" is a good first take on erosion</div><div>* signs of erosion and settling in the years prior to the collapse, however unlikely it might seem, that might distort the flow a certain way</div><div>* flow patterns that way suggesting this erosion was real, a process that's seen accelerating towards the end under the extreme circumstances of 2023 </div><div>* rocket attack damage to the protective concrete, invisible but almost certain to exist, maybe widely - on top of those prior issues - that might accelerate this process</div><div>- 3 erosion points that emerge overtime, each one closer to the dam itself, that have the river pivoting sharply by the final days </div><div>* how the post-collapse central flow follows the same swerving path, centered on those 3 evident erosion points.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>Trying to read it all, after reading the above, sounds like a terrible idea to me. But of course I just had to write the thing, and it's still a bit messy. Totally skipping it is also a bit lame, considering the useful details. A good compromise might be to <i>skim </i>the rest of this and read what bits are most interesting to you.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">Serious Concrete Protection</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIECvh6Bqvf83bV7jahEeTju1mpmoP1lHQE8E8ZuQxE4J1_ExcL48w2Yd_gIuQ73s9xy8tSiwGybhY27lLjTuCujLjOXiB5mcMq2aJKn_yGppYvM6TaJo3XtMmB6qMofJx-FgpYCGfLSDllsSCowRtOrGNTP1kqCrsXWylwaJaA6iXhTZj_JJbsBpPxMxh/s819/Screenshot%20(4702).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="819" data-original-width="627" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIECvh6Bqvf83bV7jahEeTju1mpmoP1lHQE8E8ZuQxE4J1_ExcL48w2Yd_gIuQ73s9xy8tSiwGybhY27lLjTuCujLjOXiB5mcMq2aJKn_yGppYvM6TaJo3XtMmB6qMofJx-FgpYCGfLSDllsSCowRtOrGNTP1kqCrsXWylwaJaA6iXhTZj_JJbsBpPxMxh/w306-h400/Screenshot%20(4702).png" width="306" /></a></div>In my fumbling <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/what-caused-collapse-of-nova-kakhovka.html">part 1</a>, I tried to consider erosion or "hydrodynamic scour," but not very well, initially doubting it played a big role. At right: an image from Ryan McBeth's video cited there, showing how the scour occurs in a riverbed, set above my view of how I figured it would happen at the dam. Taking McBeth's lead, I was thinking as if the riverbed was all mud past those blessedly long water ramps, but assumed the ramps alone should prevent erosion working back to the dam. </div><div><br /></div><div>But that was kind of stupid. Later I found the ramps are shorter than this, but the riverbed is covered in its own layer of concrete for a few hundred meters after the dam. This rests atop layers of sand, gravel, larger rocks, and regular soil packed in layers for best effect. Terms like "risberma" and "rip-rap" came up in discussion. That will wash out less easily than plain mud, and flowing water would need to get under the concrete before even starting on that process. </div><p>Others on Twitter had secured designs and historical photos to show a concrete apron or basin over the riverbed for a long span. Below is cropped from a profile view blueprint, view via <a href="https://twitter.com/kddsky/status/1670411820266397699">Kos Palchyk 🇺🇦 on Twitter</a>, noting label 4 translates "arpon," marked 4,0 = 4 meters thick.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_Lr-6EqNW4zew9soY-yre5LUbrQiXWxrPkuf3IzMZJqhaM3_HJtXUSjxWAXwG1waAly6E_mrBDeiBM440Gx4xYp5vQuKnK6YWUSEcCLg3q8PurOszMcqEnG_UAW320huTpMIbnVqS8jOkvRsIOe8b2CuYNa7Nwopwq0ivmrBHLKNUzneXPJn-Q4RkSo9W/s1744/NK_Dam_profile_1b.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="1744" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_Lr-6EqNW4zew9soY-yre5LUbrQiXWxrPkuf3IzMZJqhaM3_HJtXUSjxWAXwG1waAly6E_mrBDeiBM440Gx4xYp5vQuKnK6YWUSEcCLg3q8PurOszMcqEnG_UAW320huTpMIbnVqS8jOkvRsIOe8b2CuYNa7Nwopwq0ivmrBHLKNUzneXPJn-Q4RkSo9W/w640-h252/NK_Dam_profile_1b.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>The water ramps in the dam are shown at their true scale, starting 21m above the river bed at "0,0". Right is downstream, with the concrete apron beginning immediately below the foot of the ramps (right of center). It is definitely a separate construction, with a gap between shown with a line running down well below the concrete - leakage was expected, and it would drain into the aquifer below. The concrete cover runs for 100m downstream, most of it thinner, with the 4m thick span running about 40m of that.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo1majkdxRt3r-0yP6F1COpzL_XXnQ2GiJWQDzT08PtdH6DV2CUVtinF19kEknB0t50QxgvPQpmUEmLuxDQNzhqf_P-0Dm2S_5SYs0vdTV6NY2szN7obMNlXjjOjE6v3ypcLjA7UqL2gd_I7jCgAE-cs-UXW9rbvXmf15ghMymNtcbSQbEesRCrlybxmpB/s898/NK_Dam_Slab_Gap.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="592" data-original-width="898" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo1majkdxRt3r-0yP6F1COpzL_XXnQ2GiJWQDzT08PtdH6DV2CUVtinF19kEknB0t50QxgvPQpmUEmLuxDQNzhqf_P-0Dm2S_5SYs0vdTV6NY2szN7obMNlXjjOjE6v3ypcLjA7UqL2gd_I7jCgAE-cs-UXW9rbvXmf15ghMymNtcbSQbEesRCrlybxmpB/w400-h264/NK_Dam_Slab_Gap.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>For my fellow US citizens, 4 meters = about 13 feet. That's pretty thick. It might be thinner in the final reality, but we should assume this is accurate. Here's a construction photo where workers climb close to 2 meters up some stairs up to the ramps. The concrete those stairs rest on is probably more than twice that thick. <div><br /></div><div><div>Even this protection will have some fatal flaws. The concrete won't be completely solid. There is that gap between the ramps and apron, and probably along its edged. Within the apron, there are likely seams between horizontal divisions, where blocks poured one at a time harden separately, and maybe between vertical layers poured separately. These are all possible start points for water leakage and erosion to split the concrete apart. But even then, I suspect the immense scale of any fully separated blocks or layers would keep it all locked in place, so long as it remains in large enough chunks. To the extent some washout happens here or there, it's not likely to budge or collapse the apron under normal conditions,<div><p>As I reason it out, excavation of the subsoil would require cracks to the bottom that allow water to flow in all the way to mobile soil, and then back out, carrying some of it. Some soil has to be dislodged and floated away before any room is made for more water and more erosion. Once that's started, this can keep washing out more sediment, undermining more concrete. I reason this could spread in both directions, but especially in the downstream direction. But getting started shouldn't be easy, <b>unless that very thick concrete were somehow broken up,</b> making more seams all over, irregularities where new low points attract flowing water, perhaps clear to the sediment below, and gaps allow it to flow away - more erosion points, undermining concrete chunks, letting them settle lower, exposing new areas for more of the same.</p><p>Side-note: in the construction photo above and others, we can see the concrete of the ramps and the dam at large is steel-reinforced, with some visible ends of reinforcing bars. This will form a loose mesh within the concrete, helping it hold together even if it's damaged and eroding. The basin likely is the same, but perhaps not. It probably doesn't matter a lot either way; if it's broken enough to let erosion start, the rebar just holds together at first, when big pieces are still jammed against each other in the loose rebar cage. Once the first few "birds" fly from that cage, the rest will fly out, and then flock out, easily enough.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Pre-Existing Erosion & Sinkage?</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiA8GLQOOUyhG9Tt9I-uqcBr82xI6wXhDKCefHBXggE71F9wPwzsn5B8R0oj4QRvbJyNoMSR280jtEcArfzAbx3_2rSIns_OEG8qmK2dQYG8yQbgQV7W3w0QvWT6ijUmKLypd2-3SWKkmfiR4mPkQhhv7nLHiOKzl0pzTFxktptHnTX3FR2UIhiZsode_aZ/s667/NK_Dam_settling.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="500" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiA8GLQOOUyhG9Tt9I-uqcBr82xI6wXhDKCefHBXggE71F9wPwzsn5B8R0oj4QRvbJyNoMSR280jtEcArfzAbx3_2rSIns_OEG8qmK2dQYG8yQbgQV7W3w0QvWT6ijUmKLypd2-3SWKkmfiR4mPkQhhv7nLHiOKzl0pzTFxktptHnTX3FR2UIhiZsode_aZ/w300-h400/NK_Dam_settling.jpeg" width="300" /></a></div><p></p><p>Natural processes have had a long time to operate on the dam since it was built in the 1950s. OSINTJOURNO has photos showing the effects of settling. A good example is here just west of the dam's north end (<a href="https://www.google.com/maps/@46.7802971,33.3676479,3a,75y,248.48h,77.88t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s5BhMAbm6mA3SMPuSIxBmUQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?entry=ttu">Google Maps 2015 street view</a>), where the land slid tens of centimeters, leaving a gap and a badly misaligned edge. The dam itself probably settled here, pulling the attached concrete over. It seems this happened some time ago and was long-since fixed with metal plates bolted over the gap (though it seems a plate went missing for this view), and with a "bent" railing made to fit the new edge. As I gather, the many rusty padlocks on the railing are (kind of expensive) mementos people leave there for some odd reason. This spot seems to have a special appeal for lock-leaving. <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672896260162961408">https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672896260162961408</a> </p><p></p><p>This kind of settling, possibly caused by subsurface erosion, is a general issue that could happen in different spots, especially with heavy structures and earthen constructions weighing down. Invisible shifting of the basin under the water has only the river and the concrete's own weight bearing down. But considering the often rapid flow downstream, once anything managed to start, it could easily accelerate. And there has been a long time for both things to happen.</p><b>A Pit? </b>Another, far more relevant spot near the opposite shore might have a fairly large sinkhole that was visible at least once. This is at the end of the divider (or "flow guide" or "training wall") between the outputs of the dam and the HPP. Google Earth historical view of October, 2016 shows what looks like<b> a dark ovular pit </b>there, oriented north-south. It looks like a river bed faintly lit with sun from the south, where the light suddenly falls off drastically (red oval). This could just be just an illusion, but it's not a regular shadow of any visible object, and it doesn't look like a cloud shadow. A wider area around it (orange) appears slightly sunken, by the same visual reasoning, and includes a possible increasing gap or depression all along the divider. This is mainly in the HPP outlet, where the concrete is slightly thinner and more vulnerable. GE 6/2021 might show the same dark oval beneath the waves. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiijLYZtm-kL1Auve1QSMWKntkjtDhwWSYqyrIt9pGG2sUZbus0dBijIdr-Wu5jw8lmHrwXBmEz3vy53oSpbseGX05m4uZQj1xTtbbEDfisSGckBxDWt6HNbJDsxoBzHk_1-1dsqV1bbXkSdLEd9FSOAZWHhiHd0DtULZmuC6lLhP6G_IIi7y6S3kpE07mw/s1574/Screenshot%20(5031).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="699" data-original-width="1574" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiijLYZtm-kL1Auve1QSMWKntkjtDhwWSYqyrIt9pGG2sUZbus0dBijIdr-Wu5jw8lmHrwXBmEz3vy53oSpbseGX05m4uZQj1xTtbbEDfisSGckBxDWt6HNbJDsxoBzHk_1-1dsqV1bbXkSdLEd9FSOAZWHhiHd0DtULZmuC6lLhP6G_IIi7y6S3kpE07mw/w640-h284/Screenshot%20(5031).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>That second view is a bit less clear, but both these views have little froth, but white "sparkles" atop smooth, dark water, I think this means low turbulence from flow or wind, and thus a clearer view through the water to see things like this pit. I think the sparkles are seagulls, who stand out better against the still water, and might show up in greater numbers for the same clear view - in their case, a view of some tasty fish. Maybe fish also like this pit. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>An Angled Slab? </b>And just to the north of this is a wide section of riverbed (between yellow lines below) that, in the 2016 view, seems to be lit differently than the rest. Even more than the pit, this could be an illusion, and the effect is faint (compare to clear view at right). But if anything like this actually existed at the dam, it's important background for events 7 years later, so it's worth looking into. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoifexFaZfKzZY9cOsYhBBFOMS8jfholkkcuJ91oZkWXd3XNu2G6YtRMrFaGVEdd9qzXzkS2PymqeUPzBxqda5CzkHrsyZsoRUpuYZZ4U67sjwmJ_O_yY94Q7EdsckLivfXUhbyGfIo5huMRV_1FqjVnddrwZeFX6sJHv5wW9agUyePGpWN35ovPImA8jS/s769/NK_Dam_2016_pit.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="769" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoifexFaZfKzZY9cOsYhBBFOMS8jfholkkcuJ91oZkWXd3XNu2G6YtRMrFaGVEdd9qzXzkS2PymqeUPzBxqda5CzkHrsyZsoRUpuYZZ4U67sjwmJ_O_yY94Q7EdsckLivfXUhbyGfIo5huMRV_1FqjVnddrwZeFX6sJHv5wW9agUyePGpWN35ovPImA8jS/w640-h408/NK_Dam_2016_pit.png" width="640" /></a></div>The different angle would indicate <b>the slab is sunken on the south edge, as if undermined by erosion, nearest to this possible pit. </b>That could be one massive section of the apron - running to about gate 9 - now resting at such an angle it catches more sunlight. The lighter area looks almost semi-circular, like an extension of the orange depression, its other half. It likely is but, recalling it's all topped with a thick concrete apron, this should be a big, probably rectangular, and likely continuous part of that. The rounded corners could be a mix of optics and sediment filling the corners, depending, or a sign of <i>multiple</i> concrete facets catching the light differently, which means whole sections cracked apart, which means erosion here is much more likely. </div><div><br /></div><div>Here's the scene spliced onto a 3D model, trying a 3m subsidence. The reality could be a shallower or even deeper recess. I made the pit and its surrounding depression a bit too small here to match the images, but at least it gives an idea. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWe8gm8sao787c65dKHZZJ-xbeLIbsb-V_GeYasr48UwTfoGooVzGsaW3GKdN5Ihm8_aauOYgIlywwlyfpHTUAxuOqNz2oAiUFi43FPmwk7pynvVxOm-vreJRURmauuTOvSbtzJVvGFITE_VFzDdcO115oWe8rLf6h8lwQn5b8drIAk-kORm6HklGzWVV3/s1347/NK_Dam_model_slant+pit.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="874" data-original-width="1347" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWe8gm8sao787c65dKHZZJ-xbeLIbsb-V_GeYasr48UwTfoGooVzGsaW3GKdN5Ihm8_aauOYgIlywwlyfpHTUAxuOqNz2oAiUFi43FPmwk7pynvVxOm-vreJRURmauuTOvSbtzJVvGFITE_VFzDdcO115oWe8rLf6h8lwQn5b8drIAk-kORm6HklGzWVV3/w640-h416/NK_Dam_model_slant+pit.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div>OSINTJOURNO had <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672587398402785284">a photo of the divider</a> over that possible pit from well before the disaster, showing a pre-existing crack near that end, as if it had lost some of its support here (below with my labels). Under the water, more concrete is visible - that's the lower half of this wall (<a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1675900933572636674">see here</a>). The possible pit would run from the divider's end, off-frame here to the left. A line of foam there suggests, to me, water intruding from the other side, maybe attracted by that pit, and the light froth to the right looks like the related swirling seen in November, 2022 (see below). </div><div><div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdX7DUEGD4RCYt7Mmob1UPc3ed7hwieONzJPEIBZhwx6bJ_2y39EwKSol6MvITDx9L7uY1J6k1mLpclm7A3dpyqpaEToS8Q2SR0ppyWonmqQEjPqjRXfK1r1cCZoB1zvnqKkmErlRs73idViqhX__uIg0UqOdTM4ob4_yOzO0u95Z6U15kuhVR8i0gofoU/s849/NK_Dam_Divider_crack.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="849" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdX7DUEGD4RCYt7Mmob1UPc3ed7hwieONzJPEIBZhwx6bJ_2y39EwKSol6MvITDx9L7uY1J6k1mLpclm7A3dpyqpaEToS8Q2SR0ppyWonmqQEjPqjRXfK1r1cCZoB1zvnqKkmErlRs73idViqhX__uIg0UqOdTM4ob4_yOzO0u95Z6U15kuhVR8i0gofoU/w640-h414/NK_Dam_Divider_crack.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0dAuj0b3TNfIPfBTF4auUpQB0V4co_VXBcwQcj4dcjLquRH4-ipCBfSMoYEHrwLU_2RWcg6J3XaBZL3vQhYtx1u4Ow_IFlqSQdbHNuSXnckSPDdJz63KW-C92qoJ0OY6D2-n4wmkZs5AXbNh1uv6evOKSTJMfIS1Z-m1F8GG21oU38SYXdSk9BEKCIHZX/s815/NK_Dam_Divider_crack%202.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="689" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0dAuj0b3TNfIPfBTF4auUpQB0V4co_VXBcwQcj4dcjLquRH4-ipCBfSMoYEHrwLU_2RWcg6J3XaBZL3vQhYtx1u4Ow_IFlqSQdbHNuSXnckSPDdJz63KW-C92qoJ0OY6D2-n4wmkZs5AXbNh1uv6evOKSTJMfIS1Z-m1F8GG21oU38SYXdSk9BEKCIHZX/w339-h400/NK_Dam_Divider_crack%202.jpeg" width="339" /></a></div><br />The photo above was taken <b>April, 2008</b>. (<a href="https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kakhovka+Hydroelectric+Power+Plant+351MW/@46.774826,33.3718376,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipOInS_m2XVOXMw4IXBE0HIceSkdo61JPTqibtg!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOInS_m2XVOXMw4IXBE0HIceSkdo61JPTqibtg%3Dw203-h144-k-no!7i1600!8i1140!4m9!3m8!1s0x40c3854022407b99:0x8b499c66946348c!8m2!3d46.774826!4d33.3718376!10e5!14m1!1BCgIgAQ!16s%2Fg%2F1218fmbk?entry=ttu">Вид на Казацкое - Google Maps</a>). This issue may go back a while.<p></p><p>Chris Kabusk noticed a matching but inverted pattern at the same spot on the opposite side of the divider (right) - a light stripe of, I think, chipped away concrete, with a mild angle to it low on the second block down. I'm not sure what date this was taken, but other views show this same pattern, including the Google Maps street view from July 2015.</p><p>As I'll show below, heavier flows in 2023 would consistently swerve towards the possible pit, perhaps with the assistance of some new erosion, and/or as the pit likely grew under the year's constant overflow.<b> And it's this spot that witnesses the first visible subsidence of dam structures in 2023, when the tip of that divider broke off and settled at an angle. </b>This happened April 23, per NYT's report. The earliest clear view I know of, from April 28, shows its broken end askew at upper right. (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XNV9QfHm54&t=20s">Каховська ГЕС, скидання дніпровської води може призвести до катастрофи - YouTube</a>). By the basic length vs. width of the broken chunk, the wall probably broke along the same line it was already cracking at.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYbY7J8GIfRU0CMlUTG6hUBJiLHP9rOwLFVvfFdCXPNdC9OZIevKs_uiQB1uCcELPEl5CjnRF-WSoknT_4BmqVuMU3I2EheFk8MlHoUfV-Mz-wiFKPBMyzVMQSI2XnEroqYZLmiwXWnue9uZklfBVxnTiMIEiZy_emsfcAxkp7u_JtMmc5uhdzuQO4idRR/s1920/Screenshot%20(4778).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYbY7J8GIfRU0CMlUTG6hUBJiLHP9rOwLFVvfFdCXPNdC9OZIevKs_uiQB1uCcELPEl5CjnRF-WSoknT_4BmqVuMU3I2EheFk8MlHoUfV-Mz-wiFKPBMyzVMQSI2XnEroqYZLmiwXWnue9uZklfBVxnTiMIEiZy_emsfcAxkp7u_JtMmc5uhdzuQO4idRR/w640-h360/Screenshot%20(4778).png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><br /></div><div>Visual supports: output along the dividing wall, then maybe around its tip to swirl into that pit or maybe linger in the wider depression around it - if there was one. The signs are mixed. In July 2014 and October 2021, Google Earth shows HPP frothy output flows away from that spot, not towards it. But then possibly consistent swirl of water into the area, from either side of the divider, are seen in images of 9/2010, 9/2016, 10/2017, and April, 2020. 9/16 and 4/20 below. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8gckGtQURYyum9nEc31nZdlmlGIXibKyKoszjZAaU1eHs2PPza5626McE3kn4h_scCqUzLq0Uf_IKXR-2tjeE5Tbx6v94--KPMVTCqcwywsZWJ0DSA2Nw8ybepgDyz29_WfKDFJWIkxSFMi9or2ubrpkg_iihzOOvOFo8QgVc7kKi_6w6_C_6XtxxhvQk/s1043/Screenshot%20(5037).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="590" data-original-width="1043" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8gckGtQURYyum9nEc31nZdlmlGIXibKyKoszjZAaU1eHs2PPza5626McE3kn4h_scCqUzLq0Uf_IKXR-2tjeE5Tbx6v94--KPMVTCqcwywsZWJ0DSA2Nw8ybepgDyz29_WfKDFJWIkxSFMi9or2ubrpkg_iihzOOvOFo8QgVc7kKi_6w6_C_6XtxxhvQk/w640-h362/Screenshot%20(5037).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Now for the possible angled slab. This would create a trough of deeper water along its sunken edge, at the outflow from floodgate 1. Also consider that <b>downstream is "down, as possible."</b> If the bottom is level, there's nowhere in particular for a molecule of water to go, other than pushed ahead on the gentle slope to the sea. But when some water in the flow finds a depression, it drops into it, making room that invites other water to fill it. This creates a general but localized flow towards that spot. The larger and deeper the depression, the greater its pull. In the case of an angled slab, outflow from floodgates up to 9 might swerve south and slide partly down that ramp towards its bottom, describing a slant as seen from above, before splashing into the deeper water, or slowing against the dividing wall, and finally continuing in a more downstream direction. </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigsuTA3BUdoc4jI3q7v88Q6lu5V5s01KiT0HxXBvnpJrW5b3cfIuIO4rA_ZB5cvX-qdejafBZt3gIi7jGCrprjV0hiQm91Ftwr1sNCClZV0ANFD3QhcBhswsV7915XT2IIrH8DE7lLyltqHua7kxc6J5mib2iC9QAsGE85qW4uISM-NAvPxc6ZCK1wG3mi/s796/NK%2022-5-9.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="586" data-original-width="796" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigsuTA3BUdoc4jI3q7v88Q6lu5V5s01KiT0HxXBvnpJrW5b3cfIuIO4rA_ZB5cvX-qdejafBZt3gIi7jGCrprjV0hiQm91Ftwr1sNCClZV0ANFD3QhcBhswsV7915XT2IIrH8DE7lLyltqHua7kxc6J5mib2iC9QAsGE85qW4uISM-NAvPxc6ZCK1wG3mi/w400-h295/NK%2022-5-9.png" width="400" /></a></div>Likewise any angled slab is not uniformly suggested by water flow as seen. In April, 2018 and March 2019, Google Earth shows outflow from (at least) floodgates 5 and 7 coming straight out with no swerve towards any pit. Sentinel Hub's more frequent views mostly agree, but with some mild pull evident in some views. At right is <a href="https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=13&lat=46.77157&lng=33.3445&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2022-05-09T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-05-09T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&gain=2.3&gamma=0.5&downsampling=NEAREST&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22">an example from May 9, 2022</a> that seem to have flows angling this way, then swirling into the HPP outlet. Other views from May suggest the same, but few other views do.</div><div><br /></div><div>Those all predate the known battle damage of attacks on the dam from August to November, 2022. A better view from Maxar on October 18, come after some of these attacks and before others. It has flow from gates both north (left) and south (right) of the possible angled slab. The flow north (I think at gates 13, 15 and 17) comes straight out. On the south half (crane at gate 7, with I think 5, 7 and 9 open), the flow is stunted and seems interested in swirling off to the south, with froth edges almost wrapping around the "pit" before they disappear about there. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJf_vk7cy6YNwH6krkm_nYaVzHhZZCXU2Q2TMY74ByaogcNjsHO7YHWcv-9tsk8WlEfNHRNMV-VmDUCbfdC-VVyQyvf57QfxSvUvAJTm6JZAscyGWum_g2aYh5_acWJ43a_Yx5jFHiiqFLy41CeGdw81lxObjewiyqR53bEBDDRiDIc07hy7DwXNZGVteh/s960/NK_Dam_10-18-22.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="960" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJf_vk7cy6YNwH6krkm_nYaVzHhZZCXU2Q2TMY74ByaogcNjsHO7YHWcv-9tsk8WlEfNHRNMV-VmDUCbfdC-VVyQyvf57QfxSvUvAJTm6JZAscyGWum_g2aYh5_acWJ43a_Yx5jFHiiqFLy41CeGdw81lxObjewiyqR53bEBDDRiDIc07hy7DwXNZGVteh/w640-h362/NK_Dam_10-18-22.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Side-note: seeing the gates here alternate, that may be the usual practice - rotate the gates used, and avoid using adjacent ones. If so, 2023 had a very improper situation with 3 adjacent gates (5,6,7) left open for about 6 months straight.</div><div><br /></div><div>Images of November 11 and 12 show the new, irregular flow from damaged gate 1 wrapping around the end of this flow guide or divider, then swirling in the HPP outlet. Wind might also be involved, but suction at the divider's end better explains the sudden pull "down" on the froth right at the divider's tip, followed by a more leisurely arc all around the possible pit. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMPeIc7E1WNrl9oW4SGpZGPxQrOeHogyoe4a_NzN6ancRzfAfNLmwWikYLbSRdv9dbjZpG5AcnKnEDm_Zf5a7wJJUvwFToxM9nicFLhyU9jlUB-XOJ6_SMkhUJGUtzhj35CbNUrnfmWwgb3LLS4CcBBVsami9E2lBmfB0SeBQ6XoYjw8_pFgkFslFQNZeh/s1038/Screenshot%20(5001).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="711" data-original-width="1038" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMPeIc7E1WNrl9oW4SGpZGPxQrOeHogyoe4a_NzN6ancRzfAfNLmwWikYLbSRdv9dbjZpG5AcnKnEDm_Zf5a7wJJUvwFToxM9nicFLhyU9jlUB-XOJ6_SMkhUJGUtzhj35CbNUrnfmWwgb3LLS4CcBBVsami9E2lBmfB0SeBQ6XoYjw8_pFgkFslFQNZeh/w640-h438/Screenshot%20(5001).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-0i1qLk08b4XLEOybLDHLNYckqMLhaWigUQiL1hYKzwbUOMlHiNqADK94apg_o7gtrXWRDmZ8WT2lOD1zXJAm9FT0acEwjpTkkmVREgg6T_niH8IFykD6V7Lq9_QNdr9Zud9uq1kAw86K7NklkT0Zb5qS_rMVWKLT5FTHJ84IMQ376tgGy8ft2bNJZdXR/s1280/NK_Dam_Gate_3_damage_C_lines.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1280" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-0i1qLk08b4XLEOybLDHLNYckqMLhaWigUQiL1hYKzwbUOMlHiNqADK94apg_o7gtrXWRDmZ8WT2lOD1zXJAm9FT0acEwjpTkkmVREgg6T_niH8IFykD6V7Lq9_QNdr9Zud9uq1kAw86K7NklkT0Zb5qS_rMVWKLT5FTHJ84IMQ376tgGy8ft2bNJZdXR/w400-h300/NK_Dam_Gate_3_damage_C_lines.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>Dam Fracture at Gate 3?</b> <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672332762320105472">OSINTJOURNO photo</a> said to show how "the foundation immediately west of gate 3 is giving way." One other photo shows the same, while the spot has been destroyed in later views. Some kind of misalignment of a wall is clear enough, but what it means isn't so clear.</div><div><br /></div><div>Chris Kabusk notes possible misalignment in a Maxar satellite view (post-destruction, but using the existing wall) with the south/east part sliding a bit downstream, as if leaning slightly into a pit. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfXPxvbiREPA8e3pDJuMNM-a8ULiNUek99bG9_sLllWDvtMxd9bg5UE4d4QVh48D3mfV5TMpPdSDs1roL_myWhTRz3OFlhRNAgFR9JJ_JbE7W3P1_0nhuWrPsJf0TPibe6MAsep_eJgKWt5sCVJEwju2ZXgD1kX85zr6D_aAAUvcwEPKMBkstlllZoHPph/s929/NK_Dam_misaligned_1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="929" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfXPxvbiREPA8e3pDJuMNM-a8ULiNUek99bG9_sLllWDvtMxd9bg5UE4d4QVh48D3mfV5TMpPdSDs1roL_myWhTRz3OFlhRNAgFR9JJ_JbE7W3P1_0nhuWrPsJf0TPibe6MAsep_eJgKWt5sCVJEwju2ZXgD1kX85zr6D_aAAUvcwEPKMBkstlllZoHPph/w640-h332/NK_Dam_misaligned_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirDAe87TegHuk8gVipUqToAVM8bQXTZMfjuhJUKcrHCyf8eYpi6SS59DIR4JkTVn2_iPVEELU4Wkb89khSAY4T_XOrOMPwxCil5B4BDsowQIEzh_pV870jddPyE-1LV4CsCBX-fRcjXSmiUFuCcHN_1hAt9GNN8iCrhugQEt0AIRaxOKT6_XI-sXXB869w/s617/NK_Dam_misaligned_2.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="449" data-original-width="617" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirDAe87TegHuk8gVipUqToAVM8bQXTZMfjuhJUKcrHCyf8eYpi6SS59DIR4JkTVn2_iPVEELU4Wkb89khSAY4T_XOrOMPwxCil5B4BDsowQIEzh_pV870jddPyE-1LV4CsCBX-fRcjXSmiUFuCcHN_1hAt9GNN8iCrhugQEt0AIRaxOKT6_XI-sXXB869w/w400-h291/NK_Dam_misaligned_2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />And on the reservoir side, he spots a possibly different slant to supports between gates 2 and 3 (right). </div><div><br /></div><div>The last attack the Russians have reported was November 6, so the pre-damage photo(s) may be from before that date. The urgent erosion in question was probably just beginning at this point, but there were the possible existing issues from years back. This might be another example.</div><div><p>Any such thing as a existing pit, an undermined and slanted apron slab, or a fracture and settling of the main structure at gate 3, was quite likely known to Kyiv and its war planners. They might even find a way to take advantage of such a weak spot, if they had any plans that fitted into.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Rockets in the Riverbed?</span></b></p><p>As noted, Ukrainian rocket attacks of August and November are unlikely to have caused significant damage to the dam itself. The strikes we know of, that we've seen images of, were to the floodgate 1, the structure around gates 1 and 3, and mainly to the road surface and rails, and the tops of the supports beneath the roadway. Other impacts to the structure, including parts underwater, are quite possible. But if so, and whatever the actual damage was, it's the kind that only gives way 7 months later once other things have changed, so the following points apply. </p><p>These spots would experience direct damage and wider shockwaves, likely forming small cracks that contributed to the failure ONCE the whole structure was compromised enough to start giving way at these cracks. If it were partly undermined by erosion and sagging over that, as well as forward/downstream under maximum water weight, then somewhere around the middle of the undermined area, a fatal strain could form, seeking out available cracks and pulling them wider. Otherwise, it would probably hold for quite a while, if not forever.</p><p>But consider that that the dam is a fairly narrow target for long-range rockets, even precision ones like those of the U.S.-supplied HIMARS system. It's easy to miss, in which case some rockets would land in the water, detonating on contact with whatever concrete it ran into. These would cause limited but real damage to the basin, or perhaps to the dam itself. </p><p>Basin damage on the upstream side could play into erosion, The constant outpour would pull it in more than usual for all of 2023, especially nearest the open gates, with the known attack spots near them. But still, erosion here doesn't seem as likely, or as likely to matter, as on the downstream side - it's basically a lake on one side and a river on the other. And it's downstream where we see real erosion that probably mattered greatly.</p><p>Above, I noted a possible slope to the downstream concrete apron between gates 1 and 9 - visible by 2016, suggested by 2008. This would likely have some flow <i>under it</i> as well, excavating to an unclear degree but over years. This could leave some sections unsupported by 2022/23, leaving them to sag under their own and the river's weight, and start to crack. When hit by explosive rockets, any such spot could crack worse and might finally give way, sinking perhaps more than 4 meters, creating new river access to subsoil, new pits and troughs to even better channel the flow to this side. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPq2QUFSGGloVvFlsCXOM5s5i-koAbhDruMca9IZVVtmA1NM-sS1L73HX8--pqgrW2rKihgXiHXZ74CPOYhd_cIKFBIcNWx47gRWTll7r90S_I3Tkw9gnv4ccwUDd-lxL5RTvqMxryXPyJn-2yMJtkqmKHiF73eZTFdIfObchuJidiEqwnsTJVO800jbWf/s1300/NK_Dam_basin_impacts.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="1300" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPq2QUFSGGloVvFlsCXOM5s5i-koAbhDruMca9IZVVtmA1NM-sS1L73HX8--pqgrW2rKihgXiHXZ74CPOYhd_cIKFBIcNWx47gRWTll7r90S_I3Tkw9gnv4ccwUDd-lxL5RTvqMxryXPyJn-2yMJtkqmKHiF73eZTFdIfObchuJidiEqwnsTJVO800jbWf/w400-h249/NK_Dam_basin_impacts.png" width="400" /></a></div></div><div>The August strikes especially aimed for the vulnerable curved stretch of roadway sticking out past the dam's far southwest edge, next to the power plant. At least a dozen distinct impacts can be made out here, including a few hits to the road's far edge. <b>It's nearly certain that at least one rocket, and likely a few of them, overshot the road - maybe even on purpose - and landed in the water.</b> That's most likely within the oval marked at right - just about where greater erosion is suggested in the road collapse. Or worse yet, <b>some rockets might have undershot and landed in the water <i>even closer to</i> the dam.</b> Depending on the angle of fire, impacts directly under the road and closer yet, and even to the dam itself are possible. This is at the east-pointing corner of this possible angled slab, on its low, inclined end, probably far enough from its resting point that it might have been unsupported and prone to collapse. </div><div><br /></div><div>There were reportedly hundreds of rockets sent - Russia says over 300 HIMARS were used and some other models as well, but their list include attacks on military targets in the general dam area. In that case, there might be 2 or 3, or 14 or 33, or 75 subsurface impacts, for all we know, between the attacks of August and November. There might even be zero, but I highly doubt it.</div><div><p>Rocket strikes in August (gold arcs) and/or November (red arcs) might include unseen hits to the concrete apron under the downstream flow, beginning or worsening erosion there, maybe expanding the small gap between the apron and the dam's base, allowing erosion directly beneath the dam, undermining it as it remained 100% full, with immense and high-centered water weight.</p><div><br /></div><img border="0" data-original-height="378" data-original-width="949" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnwo7DNrojBKJ4O-LWKHijE9Lk6iIy6PsAxZObveAUm6RJmFB3WPO1y5NDywHtlxdnC_Hu6IuIyi5GZjLRY3o9Wd2K7iMpF7MqzUmYSo0AYcUp7piYJD6wtN5-uyaxW166h3cQZSADqULNqYz9-WuqQBK6T4WV4EF9a7BmHxawZgM1y60CyxvlzuB9ejbx/w640-h254/NK_Dam_profile_6.png" style="color: #0000ee; text-align: center;" width="640" /><br /><p>this angle of fire slightly from the dam's left is just approximate, from one estimate of mine - the real angle(s) will likely vary, and depending on that, the upstream side (left) of the dam itself could easily be hit as well, and possibly the downstream side. But if so, again, it's the kind of damage that only gives way 7 months later once other things have changed. </p><div>This kind of impact would leave no sign that's visible from above, and might even be reported as missing the target and causing no damage. But it would damage the concrete basin. Under normal or ideal circumstances, the damage wouldn't matter. But considering the prior erosion and possible cracking, the blast's significance might be greatly amplified, especially in a case where multiple impacts occurred nearby with time for erosion in between them.</div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Increasing Erosion, A Re-Shaped River</span></b></p><p>So there was a likely old pit and angled slab, probable new damage, then months of erosion under heavy and abnormally concentrated flow from adjacent floodgates 5, 6, and 7, besides from gate 3 and an irregular partial flow from gate 1 - new erosion in that light ...</p><p>Gate 1's irregular flow - could add to the relevant erosion - Normally water is released with an even, uniform flow across its width - here it's 2 spraying streams from the sides, with more from the right side as seen, spraying to the left. That will cause 2 flows, the greater one on the left, closest to or in front of gate 2's outflow - and greater erosion potential where the streams cross. If this were just soil, I could see a pit forming along that edge. If it has to leak down below an intact concrete slab, perhaps into an already sunken channel at the base of the angled slab, it shouldn't matter. But if the slab is broken enough to allow serious gaps, then erosion below is possible. </p><p>Gate 3-7 flow - April 28 video: <br /></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnFTp6mR-NrP-l2bYMN7hJjXVq1eRwsxIlm4R-DZGGuSuUqaAOPQkAqfh_f-CrGdAmsmp0Cz0sba-6iZ8XKHnXpUbcD0q0iW-XrK_oPHK45IP1kywWZV7mLbvfz596OMYo6LC2sBzmenT_of4HItvBeE_fyqxWcLAKdfDMiGgnNH9-N9dsYl0Sdqfisvmt/s1899/Screenshot%20(4776)b.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="741" data-original-width="1899" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnFTp6mR-NrP-l2bYMN7hJjXVq1eRwsxIlm4R-DZGGuSuUqaAOPQkAqfh_f-CrGdAmsmp0Cz0sba-6iZ8XKHnXpUbcD0q0iW-XrK_oPHK45IP1kywWZV7mLbvfz596OMYo6LC2sBzmenT_of4HItvBeE_fyqxWcLAKdfDMiGgnNH9-N9dsYl0Sdqfisvmt/w640-h250/Screenshot%20(4776)b.png" width="640" /></a></p><p></p><p>Normal turbulence can look about this intense and extend even further over what should be smooth concrete. But it seems to me this usually happens in bigger, smoother waves of a kind that only appear at the far edges here. In the center, the foamy ripples seem smaller and more violent than usual. This might reflect a broken basin with sharp edges the water splashes against, for a whitewater rapids effect. If so, that would be a sign the dam was in major trouble, and Ukrainian drones were seeing it this early, as the was just reaching the maximum safe level of 16.5 meters. And yet, Kyiv's wartime dam operators continued to flood the reservoir over the next 5-6 weeks. </p><p>This flow was well off from perpendicular (black lines marking flow from gates 3-7). Note the elongated area to and past the flow guide, angling towards the shore. This is probably a sunken trough, or at least includes significant lower spots. The flow from gate 7 seems just faintly distorted, but the outflow from gates 3 and 5 must be seriously off track to fill that whole corner so fully with froth. </p><p>This angled flow is a big clue. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/10/1155761686/russia-is-draining-a-massive-ukrainian-reservoir-endangering-a-nuclear-plant">A February NPR report</a> includes a January 2 satellite view showing the basic final flow held through May, with the pull less clear on the distant north edge but all starting with a sharp swerve south, towards that divider. This is shown in the green and yellow lines below. Water pouring across the possible "angled slab" would angle evenly across its width until it splashes into deeper water. Here it may start with this, with gate 3 outflow quite distorted, 5 less so, and the pull on gates 6 and 7 outflow was still muted through May.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU6FyqyFlVMpg6dYuHeb0ishWQULzvK_aD8j7tokelzitTX2YaexlXdgX5sdPH1LtKBzH3xlAg80kiz9VqIXWI5lRbnQygzbVl9FQWA-fpKYwi2plpwwFvF5f4GIcJIaizLP6qGHwkjI3nLA02M8CXc7BcZFUcB6RhzsE4Djqi9uYtKYKJmfYNW0Sq8-Ru/s1212/NK_Dam_2023_distorted_flow.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="1212" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU6FyqyFlVMpg6dYuHeb0ishWQULzvK_aD8j7tokelzitTX2YaexlXdgX5sdPH1LtKBzH3xlAg80kiz9VqIXWI5lRbnQygzbVl9FQWA-fpKYwi2plpwwFvF5f4GIcJIaizLP6qGHwkjI3nLA02M8CXc7BcZFUcB6RhzsE4Djqi9uYtKYKJmfYNW0Sq8-Ru/w640-h360/NK_Dam_2023_distorted_flow.png" width="640" /></a></div>In time, by June 5, the entire flow across the surface is swerving intensely to the south, as shown in orange. It seems the sharpest bend is towards the blue oval here. Maybe expanded erosion led to a steepened incline of the slab, or further damage-related settling, say from rocket hits near gate 5, has formed an outright trough along this stretch. All this water churning down into whatever spaces were formed would let out more and more support from beneath the dam. By this point, a solid pit is likely from at least gate 3 to the divider wall and its pit, and to that purple area at least. </div><div><br /></div><div>When the roadway supports were undermined enough, they probably gave at an existing crack as with the divider. (<a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672941624756781058">OSINTJOURNO</a>) noticed his crack at the flow guide between gates 1 and 2, meaning it did NOT give way on June 1/2. Two others to the left of it did. I don't think we have a view of these, but they were likely cracked the same way.</div><div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkeBoD5brXXUuS4eQ-udafI4SAnIj9w-kE7GR5FVhlb4oXiB3GXodwXqRzzoteAm-pNnf6mVh3RszpJjW0-1Xa0era_9LSmQ2WSVE-Ma9AUghUTHKDoH69eimEJZUsy06LOE9Ek4WeMNghUMbNYgKauZQVoDau8OKqvMc3NiEi9asUCw8SEEHSO7IXunYY/s945/NK_Dam_flow_guide_crack.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="429" data-original-width="945" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkeBoD5brXXUuS4eQ-udafI4SAnIj9w-kE7GR5FVhlb4oXiB3GXodwXqRzzoteAm-pNnf6mVh3RszpJjW0-1Xa0era_9LSmQ2WSVE-Ma9AUghUTHKDoH69eimEJZUsy06LOE9Ek4WeMNghUMbNYgKauZQVoDau8OKqvMc3NiEi9asUCw8SEEHSO7IXunYY/w640-h290/NK_Dam_flow_guide_crack.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPtK-YTNq4FcZ0jf0rkSYjfB3gNq9Wnq4bERGQcuhQyzHKZl94POs0tI1Cn-wnrRWp1oofK4JsvE6El1Z9rg5AH_JikOMtsTRZFCNhjMpw9fTMtZ31AxNh0cceA6u03OxRnV2XMGhpVhN9-yN1g9LIL8-J16KpDxHgdUx05bJwMOUf2skGbVXK27wNW1E_/s274/NK_Dam_Divider_crack_3.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="232" data-original-width="274" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPtK-YTNq4FcZ0jf0rkSYjfB3gNq9Wnq4bERGQcuhQyzHKZl94POs0tI1Cn-wnrRWp1oofK4JsvE6El1Z9rg5AH_JikOMtsTRZFCNhjMpw9fTMtZ31AxNh0cceA6u03OxRnV2XMGhpVhN9-yN1g9LIL8-J16KpDxHgdUx05bJwMOUf2skGbVXK27wNW1E_/s1600/NK_Dam_Divider_crack_3.jpg" width="274" /></a></div><br />Here's another view from below. Plant growth in that crack suggests this too became somewhat undermined years ago, but it only gave once a lot of other things changed really fast in 2022-23. </div><div><p></p><p>Finally, the effect <i>of</i> the June 1/2 road collapse is likely to matter a lot. To the extent anything really fell, it's into the same basin. This would cause new cracks probably worse than any before, in the crucial span between the dam and that likely pit in the blue oval area. This might cause continuous damage to the existing pit (red oval). By then, if not already, there would be a continuous and massive swathe of damaged concrete and riverbed subject to widespread erosion, as 4 gates' worth of maximum pressure water kept pouring nonstop into that area for another 4 days. If nothing else in combination would have undermined the dam, this could well be the strawbale broke the camel's back.</p><p>From there, it wouldn't have to spread far to undermine the dam, and it probably spread faster in this last phase. Even after decades of settling and erosion, likely several HIMARS rocket impacts, abnormal wear of a constant, narrowed flow perhaps directed by an existing slope, it still took some 7 months before those final days where the process accelerated so terribly. That's a testament to the dam, in consolation for its callous destruction.</p><p>After the collapse, a re-shaped river still moves "down, as possible." July 3 Sentinelhub view and an earlier drone view show the river's central flow (white) with areas of prior erosion interest (blue: likeliest rocket impacts from August-November - purple: where curved roadway and supports collapsed June 1/2 - red: possible existing pit (by 2016) - pink: piece of the dam likely stuck in that pit.) </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWnSaiqhFtHIJ2svdOKKD7Krq4UsNYnyK5x2X9evHaM1YIS0PA8Le_0XaAalIzkI9trxXIATRnBu_wcVdGZpAiSRJpPbdV5-ox9IQMNJXY40T9NoHRrC2zgo5-oWvUm7ZDhLYU3wrq-FAEWl3sZwbhwCV9hOg2lLSJqdLp6XHMnICn5MeuMyrZ0fBTcNZ0/s946/Screenshot%20(5012).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="946" data-original-width="894" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWnSaiqhFtHIJ2svdOKKD7Krq4UsNYnyK5x2X9evHaM1YIS0PA8Le_0XaAalIzkI9trxXIATRnBu_wcVdGZpAiSRJpPbdV5-ox9IQMNJXY40T9NoHRrC2zgo5-oWvUm7ZDhLYU3wrq-FAEWl3sZwbhwCV9hOg2lLSJqdLp6XHMnICn5MeuMyrZ0fBTcNZ0/w605-h640/Screenshot%20(5012).png" width="605" /></a></div><br /><p>This is basically the same swerving flow as earlier in 2023 and seemingly related to these erosion points - pink at the far side of the expanded pit, and the other side probably extends back to the dam and under it, being the main reason for its collapse. As it was in April, the flow continues at an angle, almost to the shore. It didn't matter much for the dam, but the erosion must have spread a way downstream from the red oval, forming a trough shaped by the flow into the area.</p><p>The swerve became permanent. Some of its cause is old news, but it seems that US-supplied HIMARS rockets helped to reshape the Dnieper River, along the way tearing down the Nova Kakhovka dam and unleashing a catastrophic flood on tens of thousands.</p></div></div></div></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-62638118629200671862023-07-01T10:00:00.010-07:002023-07-03T22:28:26.365-07:00Why it was Probably Ukraine that Wrecked the ZNPP<p><b>... When and If That Happens.</b></p><p><b>July 1, 2023</b></p><p><b>rough, incomplete - updates likely - urgent ones hopefully not</b></p><p><b>small adds 7/2... </b></p><p>I don't know just what happened to cause the disastrous radiation leak at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the largest nuclear plant in Europe. That's at least partly because the event hasn't even happened yet, and hopefully it won't. </p><p>Bookmark this post. If the disaster finally happens, as many smart people have predicted will be in the next few days, check your immediate news feeds, then come and read this, as needed, and share it. Better yet, share it now. </p><p>But if it does happen, Ukraine and not Russia will probably have done it, just like <b>every attack so far on the Russian-occupied plant has evidently been done by Ukraine, not Russia.</b> My imperfect but good ballistic readings have added up to something pretty undeniable here (and I'm open to see any denials anyone might try). Here they are finally mapped together, and below find some brief explanations with links to the work I've been showing for almost a year now, regarding the attacks between August 5 (off-frame) and November 20 of last year. There have been an alarming few attacks this year as well, briefly considered below. Finally, I'll argue how "everyone already knows who will have done it."</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaUCSEX6UbRG2YwihZpJi9ZuO-Ru3mLQjUind6RWIsJfPL2WsMct_XYkTAwoAlWKttcXH3QvvvhitKe-YMv53iQEvAaXpUp-ILS1G9elWpG1MwKPObfUBH6Vqv0SGOy09Ghmu0aiNZD8j5JPgvC-ipTKdz_US4jEYCKEalsSEn151wpjO0mrunvIhpAqzT/s2114/ZNPP_All_Strikes.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2114" data-original-width="1644" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaUCSEX6UbRG2YwihZpJi9ZuO-Ru3mLQjUind6RWIsJfPL2WsMct_XYkTAwoAlWKttcXH3QvvvhitKe-YMv53iQEvAaXpUp-ILS1G9elWpG1MwKPObfUBH6Vqv0SGOy09Ghmu0aiNZD8j5JPgvC-ipTKdz_US4jEYCKEalsSEn151wpjO0mrunvIhpAqzT/w498-h640/ZNPP_All_Strikes.png" width="498" /></a></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Recent Ukrainian Claims (</span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;">Partial Review</span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;">)</span></b></p><p>For the last month in particular, Ukraine's president Zelenskyy and his aides and government ministers have been repeating warnings that Russia plans to very soon destroy the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). On the other hand, Dmitry Polyansky, First Deputy Representative of Russia to the UN, published a letter "warning about the impending provocation by the Kyiv regime at the plant," which he had circulated in the UN.</p><p>"I must draw your attention to the heinous allegations ... that the Russian Federation could deliberately mine and destroy a nuclear power plant that it controls and which is located on the territory of one of its subjects are simply absurd. The absurdity of such statements exceeds the absurdity of the Kyiv regime's accusations that the Russian Armed Forces are shelling the ZNPP." "we urge the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the international community at large to make every effort to prevent the Kiev regime and its sponsors from staging yet another catastrophic provocation, this time on an even larger scale." <a href="https://t.me/zvezdanews/123119">https://t.me/zvezdanews/123119</a></p><p>Can it really be that absurd? <b>"Russian shelling on the morning of May 22 has severed the last remaining external power line to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), Ukraine's nuclear energy company Energoatom said.</b> The nuclear plant, located near Enerhodar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast is now reportedly running on backup diesel generators, which can only last up to 10 days, according to the company. External power supply is vital for the operation of the nuclear fuel cooling pumps in the holding pools and nuclear reactors." <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/russian-shelling-threatens-nuclear-disaster-at-zaporizhzhia-plant/">https://kyivindependent.com/russian-shelling-threatens-nuclear-disaster-at-zaporizhzhia-plant/</a></p><p>This might risk a disaster, but was swiftly refuted by Vladimir Rogov: "Zaporizhia NPP was transferred to standby and emergency power supply from diesel generators. <b>Due to the actions of the Zelensky regime, ZNPP is completely disconnected from external power supply. Energoatom disconnected the power line Dneprovskaya controlled by him." </b><a href="https://t.me/vrogov/9696">https://t.me/vrogov/9696</a></p><p>ZNPP official channel on Telegram refuted this too. Later on the 22nd they reported “At 14:20, the supply of electricity to the Zaporozhye NPP was restored. The station is operating normally. Diesel generators have been stopped and put on duty,” said Yury Chernichuk, director of the Zaporizhzhya NPP." They don't mention why power was lost, but operations were normal and "There are no violations in the operation of the nuclear power plant." There was no shelling by either side, they say. <a href="https://t.me/znppofficial/272">https://t.me/znppofficial/272</a></p><p>On May 26, Ukraine's Defense Intelligence representative Andriy Yusov said "The occupiers are going to make an imitation of a strike on the station's facilities and continue to blame Ukraine for this. ... In the near future, they are preparing a provocation, namely,<b> an imitation of a strike</b> on the facilities of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant with elements of leakage of nuclear materials. For this purpose, the occupiers have already <b>deployed appropriate weapons </b>on the territory of the ZNPP," Yusov said. He also said "the occupiers want to use the so-called Rosatom experts to allegedly "fix" the strikes. In parallel, representatives of international structures and organizations, including the IAEA, will also be invited," and he says that the Russians also plan to use chemical weapons on the Zaporizhzhia front. <a href="https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/rosiya-gotue-provokatsiyu-udarom-zaes-gur-1685123809.html">https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/rosiya-gotue-provokatsiyu-udarom-zaes-gur-1685123809.html</a></p><p>Yusov said the same about Donetsk ahead of Ukrainian shelling there over Christmas and the New Year. He claimed on December 20 that the Russians were planting bits of Western-made weapons around the city just to implicate Ukraine. Fragments like that were then shown next to the damage of impacts from the Ukrainian-held northwest - also simulated, Yusov would say. Hit in the alleged Russian false-flag attacks over the next 12 days: Donetsk Regional Clinical Traumatology Hospital/ Republican Hospital, "Road clinic," Donetsk Technical School of Industrial Automation, Solovyanenko Theater, "Youth Palace, " Shevchenko Monument, Monument to tankmen, Donetsk City shopping mall, Kindergarten no. 151, Shesh-Besh restaurant and resort, Hotel Victoria, various streets and apartment buildings and a park. The day after Yusov spoke. A Dec 21 assassination attempt on the DPR's prime minister Vitaly Khotsenko and the former director of Russia's space program Dmitry Rogozin just south of Donetsk was actually admitted by Ukraine. Then a December 30 attack on Hotel Victoria in the heart of Donetsk that killed a top Russian military investigator was left more ambiguous. Maybe that was another Russian/DPR false-flag like the rest? And presumably it will be the same at the nuclear plant if anything happens there? see <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/12/donetsk-christmas-shelling-16-25.html">Donetsk PRE-Christmas Shelling, 16-24 December</a> - <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/01/donetsk-new-years-shelling.html">https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/01/donetsk-new-years-shelling.html</a></p><p>On June 6, of course, the Nova Kakhovka dam collapsed. Kyiv's Banderite brains spent a couple weeks taking advantage of the opportunities it afforded them, blaming Russia for the event in a few different ways, sowing related fakes like "Russians firing on rescue boats" (it was a dislodged mine, dummies), claiming the breach threatened the ZNPP's cooling pond (not immediately, if ever), and then claiming <b>the dam's destruction meant the Russians would deliberately destroy the ZNPP next</b>, or at least use it to stage a more limited radiological event. The most logical motive I've seen is to make the area unfit for living OR fighting, preventing the obviously-fated Ukrainian victory. </p><p>By June 21 the threats about the ZNPP resumed at a greater pace. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) - who had just been rumored to be dead - resurfaced on the 21st to say: "First of all, ZNPP was and still is under the temporary control of the occupation forces. The truth is that by destroying the dam, they destroyed the normal access of water to the coolers operating at ZNPP. Second, the plant was additionally mined. The worst thing is that it was the cooler [cooling pond] that was mined," DIU's head said. According to the head of military intelligence, if Russians disable the cooler by blowing it up, there is a high probability that there will be significant problems." <a href="https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3725681-budanov-russians-mine-cooler-at-znpp.html">https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3725681-budanov-russians-mine-cooler-at-znpp.html</a></p><p>These claims have been around since last year - the cooling pond or the cooling tower was filled with/surrounded by/covered with landmines that could destroy it on command. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) finally had some words about this allegation: "The IAEA is aware of reports of mines having been placed near the cooling pond. No mines were observed at the site during the Director General’s visit, including the cooling pond." They had previously seen mines set outside the plant perimeter and some places inside it, described as defensive. To the IAEA, that was "not in line with safety standards" but "the main safety functions of the facility would not be significantly affected” even if some of the mines went off. </p><p><a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-167-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine">https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-167-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine</a></p><p>Budanov was undeterred. On June 25 he had a new story: "Russian troops moved vehicles charged with explosives to four of the six nuclear reactors ... It is unclear if the International Atomic Energy Agency was granted access to these units during its visit on 15 June 2023." Apparently not - the IAEA was not able to refute those new claims in the same way. <a href="https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/25/russian-troops-plant-explosives-near-4-nuclear-reactors-at-zaporizhzhia-npp-ukraines-intel/">https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/25/russian-troops-plant-explosives-near-4-nuclear-reactors-at-zaporizhzhia-npp-ukraines-intel/</a> </p><p>This might refer to military trucks which the Russians parked in some reactors' turbine halls last July, after Ukraine had attacked their troops and vehicles parked in the open with Warmate drones, killing some. Russia claims the vehicles moved into the halls were all unarmed, and everything seen there is. shown. Ukraine claims to believe the trucks were crammed with explosives ready to blow the reactors, but this is probably nothing but fantasy. </p><p>On June 28, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the OSCE Chairmanship’s Security Review Conference: "Today, Russia is threatening Ukraine and the entire OSCE area with a radiation incident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. <b>No matter what Russian propaganda says, it is Russia and only Russia that has the motivation and means to carry out an incident at ZNPP." </b>So even if it looks like Ukraine did it - and military intelligence predicts it will - it must still be Russia, if not because of their plan to make it look Ukrainian, then because Ukraine has no motive - even here 6 days after the Graham-Blumenthal resolution (see below). It's important that he lay the groundwork of fantasy in such a way. This is how Ukraine since 2014 has always been run.</p><p>June 29: Ukrainian Health Minister Viktor Lyashko went on TV to assure the public that if someone with the motive were to damage the plant and cause a leak, "Residents of Kiev will not feel the consequences," or at least people would keep a close eye on radiation levels, so there was no need to panic. Just Europe, and NATO partners in North America should feel threatened enough to desperately intervene. "On the air, Lyashko also admitted that it is impossible to protect the entire population during a radiation accident. According to him, people who live in the potential affected area have already been given drugs to protect the thyroid gland." Sounds like the plan is ready to roll. <a href="https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1674482466562748416">https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1674482466562748416</a></p><p>June 30: In Zaporizhzhia at least, emergency drills were carried out. "Dressed in white and yellow protective suits and armed with devices to detect radiation levels, Ukrainian emergency workers took part in a drill Thursday to prepare for a potential risk of radiation leakage from the Russian-occupied ZNPP" <a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jun/30/ukraine-holds-drills-to-prepare-for-radiation-leak/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SocialFlow">https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jun/30/ukraine-holds-drills-to-prepare-for-radiation-leak/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SocialFlow</a></p><p>June 30 the allegations gets kind of chilling: "The Russians are reducing their presence at #Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate reports. <b>The Russian representatives of #Rosatom have already left, and Ukrainian employees of the plant who signed contracts with Rosatom are being advised to evacuate by July 5. </b>Meanwhile, the number of military patrols in #Enerhodar is gradually decreasing." <a href="https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1674680735796428800">KyivPost on Twitter</a></p><p>June 30: further claims published by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on its Telegram channel (which I didn't find yet): employees are ordered to leave before July 5, relocating to Crimea, and "the personnel who remain at the plant are ordered to <b>"blame Ukraine in case of any emergencies."</b>" <a href="https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1674858289971208192">https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1674858289971208192</a></p><p>Ukraine says Russia says blame Ukraine, and all this other stuff. Any or all of it COULD be true, as far as I know, even though the well-informed Russian-affiliated Vladimir Rogov swiftly denied it:</p><p>The head of the movement "We are together with Russia" Vladimir Rogov called the statement of the military intelligence of Ukraine about the evacuation of personnel from the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant a lie. ... "All this is a lie and information stuffing in order to sow panic. The Zaporozhye NPP is operating as usual, its employees carry out their duties with dignity, despite threats and blackmail from the Kiev terrorist regime," he said. <a href="https://ria.ru/20230630/zayavlenie-1881479743.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fdzen.ru%2Fnews%2Fsearch%3Ftext%3D">Рогов назвал заявление Киева об эвакуации персонала с ЗАЭС ложью - РИА Новости, 30.06.2023 (ria.ru)</a></p><p>It seems the same was alleged before: May 12, 10 days before they would say Russia bombed the power lines, Energoatom reports "The Russians plan to "evacuate" more than 3,000 workers from the ZNPP" https://twitter.com/uacrisis/status/1657029293917057027 and later, as the workers were "slaves," it was their families to be relocated from the drone-ravaged city of Energodar. Maybe the latter was even true, but on May 12 : "no evacuation, as stated by the Ukrainian side, is being carried out." <a href="https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/1800">https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/1800</a> </p><p>The workers are still there now, but allegedly just about to leave again, in one of those "troubling signs" you have to make up every so often.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Green-Lighted with a NATO Red Line</span></b></p><p>A week earlier, on June 22, the United States Congress gave Ukraine a red-line sort of green-light to go ahead with any Russian attack they have planned. U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham (ghoul, South Carolina) and Richard Blumenthal (tool, Connecticut) introduced a resolution "to respond to the Russian Federation delivering tactical nuclear weapons to the Republic of Belarus, but also including a clause that "the destruction of a nuclear facility, dispersing radioactive contaminates into NATO territory causing significant harm to human life," will be seen "as an attack on NATO requiring an immediate response, including the implementation of Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty." <a href="https://www.lgraham.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2023/6/graham-blumenthal-introduce-resolution-to-address-threat-of-russian-tactical-nukes">Graham, Blumenthal Introduce Resolution To Address Threat Of Russian Tactical Nukes - Press Releases - United States Senator Lindsey Graham (senate.gov)</a></p><p>It doesn't seem to matter who causes the nuclear disaster, or it goes without saying that - whoever it actually is - it will be Russia. It wouldn't mean any country is forces to send troops, and it's not clear if a resolution by 2 US senators can bind whole other countries to do anything, but ... the idea is it will be bad for Russia and good for Ukraine, raising Ukraine's motive to have some disaster occur.</p><p>This is akin to former president Obama's "red line" over chemical weapons use in Syria, issued in August 2012 and repeated in December. Hundreds of chemical attacks blamed on Syria followed, killing probably well over 1,000 civilians in total, dozens of militant fighters and some family members, and dozens of Syrian troops, between 2012 and 2018. As a former US ambassador in the Middle East told journalist Charles Glass, “The ‘red line’ was an open invitation to a false-flag operation.” (<a href="http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2022/march/25/british-intelligence-operative-s-involvement-in-ukraine-crisis-signals-false-flag-attacks-ahead/">via Kit Klarenberg</a>) </p><p>I saw it that way too. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-first-bodies-tossed-across-obamas.html">See here</a> for how it started and how I started following CW attack allegations <i>a few days before they first appeared,</i> in early December, 2012. As far as my research can tell, foreign-backed terrorists were responsible for all of these attacks, as some suppressed findings of the OPCW suggested - at least - with the 2018 Douma incident. It may be the same in other cases they investigated, and we just haven't had materials leaked like that before. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">When and How?</span></b></p><p>Russian sources are said to indicate their "Ukrainian" false-false-flag even will come in early July, and specifically on or after July 5, but Russian-affiliated sources deny this. </p><p>June 22 Zelenskyy advisor Iullia Mendel wrote about clues for and veiled predictions of a ZNPP disaster that were "happening against the backdrop of intensified Russian propaganda in the southern regions, which explicitly mentions the beginning of July. ... Residents I keep in touch with in Kherson, my home region, already know that this may be a kind of warning about Russia’s own plans." <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/18572">https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/18572</a></p><p>The July 5 deadline recently floated by Kyiv clearly fits this allegedly Russian timeline. I haven't seen actual Russian reports mentioning early July, but I actually miss most things, so they may exist. Here's someone, also on June 22, reasoning out a similar time frame that has just proven inaccurate: June 26-29. This was based on a possible secret deal where Russia could surrender the ZNPP, by this date - the 22nd - or else "the West will give the green light to the second wave of the "counterattack" - by all means, aiming at the Crimea and Energodar, and at the same time organizing attacks on the Kherson region and the border of the Russian Federation." That date passed with Russia still at the ZNPP meant the two weeks before the NATO summit will be "difficult." <a href="https://t.me/melnikby/76230">https://t.me/melnikby/76230</a></p><p>Boris Rogozin aka Colonel Cassad, June 30: predicts the incident will happen prior to the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 12, <b>if </b>that measure proves necessary. Otherwise, it's just a feint - they have several of those, he thinks, each one ready to be real or a distraction. <a href="https://t.me/boris_rozhin/90839">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/90839</a></p><p>As for how they might do it ... The Ukrainian landing attempt on September 1 comes to mind. They reportedly used 2 unpowered barges, both of which were noticed anyway, damaged or sunk, with many Ukrainian troops drowned and others reportedly killed or captured on land. The allegations were declared fake with the aid of a Ukrainian fake that only shows <i>they were faking</i>, just after the fighting ended, making claims of dead Ukrainians look fake even before the Russians even made the claims, and on the same coastlines they would have launched their denied attack from - possibly first thing after surviving on some other boat of their own, and making it back to shore. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/10/how-ukrainian-fake-confirms-russia-on.html">https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/10/how-ukrainian-fake-confirms-russia-on.html</a></p><p>Now that the reservoir is dried up following the dam collapse, crossing will be different. There is still some river to ford, but not enough to bother with boats. Land-based armor could now cross much of it, and can pick their best spots to try, although they'd be exposed. But a false-flag attack is best done from a distance similar to what they've always had, by fired rockets as usual, or perhaps with some sabotage with the aid of any workers at the plant they still operate as agents.</p><p>As cited above, Defense Intelligence spokesperson Andriy Yusov had warned Russia planned "an imitation of a strike" on the plant and planned to ""fix" the strikes" as Ukrainian, using experts from Rosatom and the IAEA. They might even agree it looks like Ukraine did it, although that could hardly matter unless the IAEA broke their eternal silence about blame for these attacks. </p><p>Yusov will be keyed into Ukraine's own military plans, and he tells us the attack will look like Ukraine did it with an artillery strike that can be read (fixed.) So if it winds up looking like Ukraine did it, that's because of the Russians did it. Because, as Kuleba said, only they have the motive and the means to attack the plant. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">How the Precedent Swings: to the North</span></b></p><p>That's a highly convenient narrative, considering when the plant has been attacked before, obviously by people with adequate motive,<b> it has always looked like Ukraine did it.</b> I've still never compiled a masterlist to organize my posts on the ZNPP, but <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/search/label/ZNPP">here are all posts with that tag</a>. There aren't that many attacks really - almost all of them addressed in small clusters in just 5 posts here, running August to November of last year. There were no attacks since November 19 & 20, until April of this year. Since then, there have been a few drone attacks tried and some artillery attacks succeeded in causing new damage. </p><p>My ballistic analysis excludes the 2023 attacks (so far), an admitted Ukrainian attack with drones last July, and other drone attacks, where the flight path can't be read the same way as with artillery and rockets - the Warmate model primarily used is made in Poland and used by Ukraine. You just can't tell which way they sent it from. - https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/09/warmate-drones.html</p><p>Unguided rockets, mortar, tank and artillery shells can only travel a ballistic arc in a straight line (on the map), and that line can often be determined from patterns in the damage its blast causes. These clues, when they can be determined in attacks at the ZNPP, always point back to the north, from the Ukrainian-occupied bank of the Dnipro, across the then-expansive Khakovka reservoir. Northwest directions from north of Nikopol are the most common, but firing positions to the WNW, NNW, north, and NNE have all been used to attack the plant. A onetime appearance of fire from the east may have a special explanation (see Sept. 1).</p><p>August 5, 2022 - first known successful hit - 750v external power switchyard is hit in shelling I can't assess.</p><p>August 6, late afternoon, an Urugan rocket with cluster munitions landed near the dry spent fuel storage site, dropping bomblets that caused minor damage - One of the bomblets injured a security guard at the spent fuel storage site, and another may have landed inside it, chipping one of the massive containers inside. Rocket fired from the NW, Kamianske direction. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/09/ukraines-systematic-shelling-of-znpp.html">https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/09/ukraines-systematic-shelling-of-znpp.html</a></p><p>People love to cite Rosatom's expert Renat Karchaa claiming the rocket in this attack, with a tail pointing SE (Russian-held), came from the northwest and must have "U-turned." He is translated as saying that, but misspoke or was mistranslated or is an idiot. The soil will disperse in the forward direction, and here it dispersed to the southeast. At least 10 cluster bomblet impacts are located to the northwest, consistent with its having come that way. The rocket probably U-bent so the tail point somewhat forward on its trajectory from the NW. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWphUwvdE5675OobfvhS09Z2-D6dVXSESJSrOODJm7W_CdZRVxyWuMa1w5Q8P1x8POB5zmrvNJazgw2IBHG6j2m7XMhGotN_tt_SSLbwGECRBbnTY0FIO7e1UN_nWzmUaZA9L-Gnd3Ou-gwO1yHuzVydRXcjhr2lzgXUGzGY3BaRhCszNJ7WOW6csAhA/s800/Zap_rocket_NW-SE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="800" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWphUwvdE5675OobfvhS09Z2-D6dVXSESJSrOODJm7W_CdZRVxyWuMa1w5Q8P1x8POB5zmrvNJazgw2IBHG6j2m7XMhGotN_tt_SSLbwGECRBbnTY0FIO7e1UN_nWzmUaZA9L-Gnd3Ou-gwO1yHuzVydRXcjhr2lzgXUGzGY3BaRhCszNJ7WOW6csAhA/w640-h288/Zap_rocket_NW-SE.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Make fun instead of the experts consulted Energoatom (Ukraine's nuclear agency) who pretended they couldn't see that, and suggested the <b>soil here U-turned to pile up entirely BEHIND the rocket</b>. This one attack they dared to analyze implicated Russia well enough for them that it stands in for all other cases - they must all come from the SE or be totally fake. Using the slightly famous image of Karchaa, standing in for Energoatom's remote experts in propaganda spin...</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdV0cPJ7pJxaqrY-MGAIldg5ueRaIq9XeKTSsgohGivFoGLXIqWhoTFy7uSU_eksn7Sp511PyGKf1LDkYwM_MUSOhbHXXB07tvQGSlnS8G9m1Bj-bKFHvvnYelUY50WWDWoBC_19T1UuNVBJgb4V-5kjep4VNRs71c3YMgmbopwRzpV2OHHrHcMP5DjkaC/s797/Zap_Energoatom_180.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="779" data-original-width="797" height="626" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdV0cPJ7pJxaqrY-MGAIldg5ueRaIq9XeKTSsgohGivFoGLXIqWhoTFy7uSU_eksn7Sp511PyGKf1LDkYwM_MUSOhbHXXB07tvQGSlnS8G9m1Bj-bKFHvvnYelUY50WWDWoBC_19T1UuNVBJgb4V-5kjep4VNRs71c3YMgmbopwRzpV2OHHrHcMP5DjkaC/w640-h626/Zap_Energoatom_180.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKri4Ly1AyQ2jN3rxeePxVqRMfEXrNbHyfJjvCobhQGvYTn6n47bD7N4xq0a12UR5cwyI_uANzNuunkHP5KyBIyKPvx4nvFv_DZ9Lk2OhBHmWG_ApI8ZXMOVwxw0MVDIt_z9_On0vD51rtCH_H9iLnFMDGEqo7mT1CBisHLkVppyvjrbSuvDslFt0zrw/s800/Zap_43.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKri4Ly1AyQ2jN3rxeePxVqRMfEXrNbHyfJjvCobhQGvYTn6n47bD7N4xq0a12UR5cwyI_uANzNuunkHP5KyBIyKPvx4nvFv_DZ9Lk2OhBHmWG_ApI8ZXMOVwxw0MVDIt_z9_On0vD51rtCH_H9iLnFMDGEqo7mT1CBisHLkVppyvjrbSuvDslFt0zrw/s320/Zap_43.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>Aug 11, 17, 20 & 21 - 4/11 a water pumping station ("hydro plant") was damaged, hit on the north side from an unclear angle (image at right). 4/17 American Eagle Picher shells were fired from the northwest and damaged a perimeter fence nearby. Both sites are near what Russian maps label near "radioactive isotopes storage." August 20 four impacts reported, 2 dirt craters seen, near Special Building 2. WNW origin, Nikopol south. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/10/maxar-and-cnn-turn-blind-eye-to-august.html">https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/10/maxar-and-cnn-turn-blind-eye-to-august.html</a><div><p></p><p>August 25-28 and even 29 - several attacks ahead of IAEA visit, conflicting reports - 8/27 at least 3 impacts around special building 2 and reactor 6 - all 3 are pretty clear in coming from NW, Prydniprovske direction. (see below and note impact 1 is visible from space - trajectory is perpendicular to that fuzzy line) - 8/28 artillery shells and drones arrived from the NNE, hitting the roof of special building 1 - 8/29 more of the same at SB1. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/09/ukraines-systematic-shelling-of-znpp_15.html">https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/09/ukraines-systematic-shelling-of-znpp_15.html</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP02rUIwj_elqbiyC5kUdP7FCOQmqF5VxQDXXXbZY2vkeVxqWyNp0IKcxp6KcepluRv8XCga3US-yN8u9bzW-5rwT_ECdoyDKu9F6bcJe-wK4V4srjX-39jyKABEIkZ4syyI7NuFPzoUj7Z7ePOyz8xPV_2icrN1fzL9Ekt8a4Dix5tkfQ_lQ2hvvL2g/s800/Zap_8-27+Smudge.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="499" data-original-width="800" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP02rUIwj_elqbiyC5kUdP7FCOQmqF5VxQDXXXbZY2vkeVxqWyNp0IKcxp6KcepluRv8XCga3US-yN8u9bzW-5rwT_ECdoyDKu9F6bcJe-wK4V4srjX-39jyKABEIkZ4syyI7NuFPzoUj7Z7ePOyz8xPV_2icrN1fzL9Ekt8a4Dix5tkfQ_lQ2hvvL2g/w640-h400/Zap_8-27+Smudge.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Sept. 1: some impacts near the liquid nitrogen cooling station, coming from the east, an unusual direction that would seem to implicate Russians on the far (east) side of the reservoir. The IAEA team arrives the same day, after a Ukrainian landing and offensive. Two artillery strikes in Energoadar share the same direction, jointly indicating a coastal spot near where Ukrainian landings were reported. Between the two angles of fire, I propose a firing spot about here, near Victory Park. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/10/how-ukrainian-fake-confirms-russia-on.html">https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/10/how-ukrainian-fake-confirms-russia-on.html</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh47jXbJU-dz6sHxkXpG7PvwiPvVzvWRor2o-Kow-vpiN8nTs1Dy8LsDPUC02d_PadnknTmRtvshg9YEneHLxOsSe2w573uMMFx9XwAu5ypcOMLzrmh7bT96C2FyNQRSYRmbfkaqiEm3__XKUYvQxS1yFg3Iei3Das-2fpC_8J2HeIFoO4LFQEbWnwaSQ/s800/Screenshot%20(2703).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="547" data-original-width="800" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh47jXbJU-dz6sHxkXpG7PvwiPvVzvWRor2o-Kow-vpiN8nTs1Dy8LsDPUC02d_PadnknTmRtvshg9YEneHLxOsSe2w573uMMFx9XwAu5ypcOMLzrmh7bT96C2FyNQRSYRmbfkaqiEm3__XKUYvQxS1yFg3Iei3Das-2fpC_8J2HeIFoO4LFQEbWnwaSQ/w640-h438/Screenshot%20(2703).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Sep 4/5 - artillery and drone strikes on and near Special Building 1, passage to reactor 1 - from northeast around Illinka, and an unclear E-W impact, probably from the WNW (Nikopol south) - <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/09/attacks-of-september-45.html">https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/09/attacks-of-september-45.html</a></p><p>Here's a view I didn't get around to including there. And looking back now, I'm not sure why I called that roof impact - or the one to its left - north origin. Now it looks opposite, like south, much like the roof impact on Nov. 19 or 20. Maybe drones U-turned a few times, or these roofs display damage weirdly (they do, at least a bit). Sept. 5 is an extra-tricky attack, in retrospect - 2 unclear north-or-south impacts and a hard-to-call east-or-west impact of something in the ground nearby. Maybe that was done on purpose. It would be the first new attack on-site IAEA inspectors would get to measure. Maybe someone wanted to stump them or even make them wonder if it really was the Russians shelling the plant after all. Whatever the case, this kind of ambiguity is unusual, and the overall picture is really quite clear. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaV-VvfkZtAi7xNFjmzzaHxA2vVd0_mzwdkhI1afwRkT1Khe51JEWtt2piGJoexHgfxkukKuYun-A1Xfn_OnmZAhB5e66tDzXHXEcDHQi5nzsGnAh8q9aCc66yebcXLc8va3_Sm7OGqnp-QMv3eYGzz5qaVVTlueJdR3aAaNuslNeH-_zBxKvTsuuVBXJ9/s1280/Zap_35.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="1280" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaV-VvfkZtAi7xNFjmzzaHxA2vVd0_mzwdkhI1afwRkT1Khe51JEWtt2piGJoexHgfxkukKuYun-A1Xfn_OnmZAhB5e66tDzXHXEcDHQi5nzsGnAh8q9aCc66yebcXLc8va3_Sm7OGqnp-QMv3eYGzz5qaVVTlueJdR3aAaNuslNeH-_zBxKvTsuuVBXJ9/w640-h288/Zap_35.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHzad256MnbfXYDeIVnNr0cYKQ5IrUc9iwaOFXdytnyk1oP9I0AHm6L2pYbT09bi0KVqymK-RPWZ_2qq8J80M3OVX8Frf2j7gyWOkGhxxLnEIJ8y9S0__2R0txUXPdWXRvm5En3pcR9koZJQxUCkEMPuR745-mS8O87rgBmuUQ3HNYHYEgJmJYTwTEEQ/s800/ZNPP_11-20_3.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="450" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHzad256MnbfXYDeIVnNr0cYKQ5IrUc9iwaOFXdytnyk1oP9I0AHm6L2pYbT09bi0KVqymK-RPWZ_2qq8J80M3OVX8Frf2j7gyWOkGhxxLnEIJ8y9S0__2R0txUXPdWXRvm5En3pcR9koZJQxUCkEMPuR745-mS8O87rgBmuUQ3HNYHYEgJmJYTwTEEQ/w225-h400/ZNPP_11-20_3.jpeg" width="225" /></a></div>9/20 & 21 were never put in a post. 9/20: pipe damaged in spray ponds near cafeteria (damaged) - unclear origin of fire from NW, W, SW or even south. 9/21 - power lines damaged near the cooling reservoir just west of reactor 4 - scene geolocated, but direction of fire unclear.<p></p><p>Nov 19/20: Some 2 months since the last attacks, and the latest attacks I'm aware of. Shells from WNW (Nikopol south) on the 19th, NNE (Marganets direction), and maybe drones (one seeming to turn and impact from the south) on one of those days, hitting roof of Special Building 2. 11/20 3+ hits near Reactor 5 (one impact shown at right), damaging the crucial passageway, the reactor's service rail line, and the roadway - the evening before, impacts were noted in the spray ponds, and the grounds south of them and reportedly in the dry spent fuel storage site, where some thick concrete prevents a leak of dangerous nuclear material. Below: impact south of the spray ponds, video made the 19th, filming from the north - the video shows spray from previous hits in the ponds, hears another rocket pass overhead then quieting before its seen impact to the south = flying partly from the north - as the crater seen there suggests. The other part is west, adding up to roughly a Nikopol direction. see: <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/11/shelling-attack-on-znpp-november-1920.html">https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/11/shelling-attack-on-znpp-november-1920.html</a></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5UXN25hKYO60YfOOggIWoczKlJ4bMj_2Dwva2l3HXJ9Bk_PVe2aTUz4fdrhd0yjjeGJfacKSkCt-bKUlCNM7il66yBibcXZSIFZEnbmWQTcvXF2VVpJqx7EwjdySvSnFIAKsFVFLTIMQV7xyP1vkNqWU0FPDD3HWnSg_P3Lzm3znr4i5jtz2oq3MgPA/s800/Screenshot%20(2845).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="800" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5UXN25hKYO60YfOOggIWoczKlJ4bMj_2Dwva2l3HXJ9Bk_PVe2aTUz4fdrhd0yjjeGJfacKSkCt-bKUlCNM7il66yBibcXZSIFZEnbmWQTcvXF2VVpJqx7EwjdySvSnFIAKsFVFLTIMQV7xyP1vkNqWU0FPDD3HWnSg_P3Lzm3znr4i5jtz2oq3MgPA/w640-h524/Screenshot%20(2845).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi95IUwoyMESJWd-JGTP311rwa9KfB-6YPIl2XJlTrIJoagIPNL80dwovWfBUydUkkTDmdEuu5QAWrmDfOflOKd3CYuSC-SLSQMmcupfnp5y1kOTEKzyt2flFoiq7JXjxYkyfO7T8chcwaiO-i0LMeAZiIFP1B97BtdkE4je8Vdk58pfK28UGDpk0MF3Q/s800/ZNPP_11-20_11.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="800" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi95IUwoyMESJWd-JGTP311rwa9KfB-6YPIl2XJlTrIJoagIPNL80dwovWfBUydUkkTDmdEuu5QAWrmDfOflOKd3CYuSC-SLSQMmcupfnp5y1kOTEKzyt2flFoiq7JXjxYkyfO7T8chcwaiO-i0LMeAZiIFP1B97BtdkE4je8Vdk58pfK28UGDpk0MF3Q/w640-h288/ZNPP_11-20_11.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div>To add: report on the first attack, evening of 11/19: "For the first time since the end of September, the Ukrainian military launched a massive attack on the ZNPP perimeter. Between 17:15 and 17:41 (less than 30 minutes), 12 rockets were fired directly at the station. It is known that 6 got into the pool of the reactor cooling fountain, <b>2 - into the storage facility (dry storage of nuclear waste)</b>. It is still impossible to determine the consequences of the shelling - the danger of repeated attacks remains. None of the station personnel were injured." <a href="https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/1254">https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/1254</a><p></p><p>The impacts at reactor 5 were probably on the following morning. 3 impacts on the road and rails were readable as from the North (just west of local north). Adding some later views I found from there suggesting another impact. One shows a strange concrete slab near some trucks of the Russian occupiers that are the "root cause" of the shelling that has the nuclear plant crumbling away. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzIpj2C0eWePVCAmnOxoSF_da_oW9e9jq7VQ22G4QucRWxmbzWJJygwSXN2icAsHsGERCD3wklyJYzSb1nDgGMxrABlZRcpQfeYHcQwZ2KCJ11N4wZCBR43Ds-hHJ7EypeDdTn6f7BSV6Ta4noi5c9rnk4S3r7EHssOw04e6QFKDeIJvOyVKvW8muHjwEK/s960/Zap_47.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="960" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzIpj2C0eWePVCAmnOxoSF_da_oW9e9jq7VQ22G4QucRWxmbzWJJygwSXN2icAsHsGERCD3wklyJYzSb1nDgGMxrABlZRcpQfeYHcQwZ2KCJ11N4wZCBR43Ds-hHJ7EypeDdTn6f7BSV6Ta4noi5c9rnk4S3r7EHssOw04e6QFKDeIJvOyVKvW8muHjwEK/w640-h360/Zap_47.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>That comes from the south side of the passageway to reactor 5, following what seems to be in internal blast, following another shell punching through one of the many broken windows visible on its north side. This might have damaged water pipes feeding into reactor 5, although I don't see signs of a major leak. This might be the most dangerous impact thus far. Reactor 5 was active at the time - as of now, July 2023, it's the last one still in "hot shutdown" and producing some power. The rest are in "cold shutdown."<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDyWRY-XeY2t3mCE0DWoQz0spndyHiwZKI18BcDi91b9lUy8FEyPA98kkNb-oz1oxbzbbNX6wKtU38pUBS6nXp1oQmHXaLuTuAIlXqHnMP8Gk85mSln0_lB_cjnhdqt-gdVgkKPr-07eQdGwm8ZQlBx3jVn2HC8ncApXNPxdR66cQ6UUFWDB_7soUA9lZP/s1293/Screenshot%20(3437).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="721" data-original-width="1293" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDyWRY-XeY2t3mCE0DWoQz0spndyHiwZKI18BcDi91b9lUy8FEyPA98kkNb-oz1oxbzbbNX6wKtU38pUBS6nXp1oQmHXaLuTuAIlXqHnMP8Gk85mSln0_lB_cjnhdqt-gdVgkKPr-07eQdGwm8ZQlBx3jVn2HC8ncApXNPxdR66cQ6UUFWDB_7soUA9lZP/w640-h356/Screenshot%20(3437).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_mlrZRgsKQAAQ6boRY4Y7b9s_O60G3-JAmPj_ptNvk-weQ46gs585tIWIS-z6D6iW4diqNvIanqMeHzTF_T7JZUPMjKRP_eD4YtRuFIivwFX-ri8bX1q3bgugGkqpfJOBBmPF7NSNH5N92rrdi1vRnSFOzaugjHokIheZc94wHtzLTeCwKsQq9jI3frVA/s1301/Screenshot%20(3439).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="727" data-original-width="1301" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_mlrZRgsKQAAQ6boRY4Y7b9s_O60G3-JAmPj_ptNvk-weQ46gs585tIWIS-z6D6iW4diqNvIanqMeHzTF_T7JZUPMjKRP_eD4YtRuFIivwFX-ri8bX1q3bgugGkqpfJOBBmPF7NSNH5N92rrdi1vRnSFOzaugjHokIheZc94wHtzLTeCwKsQq9jI3frVA/w640-h358/Screenshot%20(3439).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">2023 Attacks on the ZNPP</span></b></p><p>That may have pushed it far enough. There were no more attacks on the plant reported to the end of the year. 2022 attacks mapped above with estimated firing directions. I haven't followed in 2023, but catching up now, it seems there have been additional attacks. I'll see about visuals and ballistic analysis of these later.</p><p>3/29 https://t.me/IntelRepublic/17365 No Ukrainian shells hit the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant territory since the beginning of the year, but the situation remains unstable and dangerous - Renat Karchaa, Advisor to the General Director of Rosenergoatom.</p><p>4/4: Ukrainian UAV crashed near the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant - presumably, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to attack the plant. Ukrainian militants fired an attack drone that fell in the ZNPP area. The drone produced by Poland weighed about 2 kg, RIA Novosti reports. The location of the UAV wreckage proves that the ZNPP infrastructure was the target of the strike.</p><p>Then a successful attack on April 12 was reported, but only later on, that I could find. 4/22: "At ZNPP, windows of the turbine hall of the fourth power unit were shattered by an explosive wave - adviser to the head of the Rosenergoatom concern Renat Karchaa. It is reported that the APU used a drone." https://t.me/chp_donetskv/49289 4/28: "The windows in the turbine hall of the Zaporozhye NPP were repaired after the attack by Ukrainian military drones on April 12. Renat Karchaa, adviser to the general director of the Rosenergoatom concern, announced this. "The windows in the turbine hall were repaired: they closed it somewhere with glass, somewhere with chipboard," he said. "https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/1755</p><p>4/27 Zaporozhye nuclear power plant restored after attack by Ukrainian drones – Karchaa. Windows were repaired in the turbine hall of the fourth power unit of ZNPP after the attack (https://t.me/readovkanews/57353) by APU drones. Then the openings were literally knocked out by an explosive wave. The damage was covered with glass and chipboard, Renat Karchaa, adviser to the head of the Rosenergoatom concern, told TASS. https://t.me/readovkanews/57701</p><p>In the meantime, on April 23: Another Ukrainian drone tried to attack Zaporozhya Nuclear Power Plant right during Grossi’s talks with the head of Rosatom in Kaliningrad. It was a Polish attack drone - anti aircraft forces managed to drop it down. https://t.me/Elena_Evdokimova_Digest/8322</p><p>4/28 a new attack just as repairs from the last were finished? This time it was at the liquid nitrogen cooling station - where they attacked just ahead of the IAEA team visit on Sept. 1 - exact geolocation and possible analysis maybe soon - heavy fragmentation damage seen on posts - said a fire was started but swiftly extinguished. - video: https://t.me/Slavyangrad/43619 - https://twitter.com/skadefron/status/1651920456956477441</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie66L_rUIyEuhJVCD4l4iZI0-3Ha62HrTmaM4szJ_KNO3YLq_l3mjB6Bm-U7-4MRzc5dmliURnCRaPL_NqO0-fi754Wv9kvsJkIo_OLd0mDuFxwL9wUOBotWl0tfMzEEfcD6gZO_smCtNPipw17bYvZi-FDFfn5QxPNPn6Qipr9Xqa6jeX2iHC6FW_yAeU/s1663/Screenshot%20(4859).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="935" data-original-width="1663" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie66L_rUIyEuhJVCD4l4iZI0-3Ha62HrTmaM4szJ_KNO3YLq_l3mjB6Bm-U7-4MRzc5dmliURnCRaPL_NqO0-fi754Wv9kvsJkIo_OLd0mDuFxwL9wUOBotWl0tfMzEEfcD6gZO_smCtNPipw17bYvZi-FDFfn5QxPNPn6Qipr9Xqa6jeX2iHC6FW_yAeU/w640-h360/Screenshot%20(4859).png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>Update July 2: </b>probably no April 28 attack. The story is vague, told by no one else, and the damage is old, apparently part of the September 1 barrage ahead of the IAEA visit - see here: <a href="https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1675526593148780545">Adam Larson #EndtheOPCWCoverup #FreeAssange on Twitter: "Levels of fake in #ZNPP attack claims</a> (short thread)</p><p>May 28 reports: "Ukrainian militants attempted to attack the ZNPP using a strike UAV, the device was landed and neutralized 500 meters from the station, a representative of the law enforcement agency said." <a href="https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/1874">https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/1874</a></p><p>June 9: "In the morning, EW forces landed 3 Ukrainian UAVs with PG-7L wearable ammunition, which flew in the direction of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, the law enforcement agencies of the region reported. The UAVs were examined by explosives specialists. As a result, it was decided to destroy them on the spot. No damage or casualties." <a href="https://t.me/izvestia/133753">https://t.me/izvestia/133753</a></p><p><b>In Other News... (add 7/2)</b></p><p>June 12: The ZNPP's official website - which doesn't seem to mention these new attacks - notes some minor news: "During the cleaning of the bowls of the spray pools of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, aimed at eliminating the consequences of last year's shelling of the station, fragments from the projectile of the American M777 howitzer were found in one of the bowls of the process water system" <a href="https://znpp.ru/novosti/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=9694">https://znpp.ru/novosti/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=9694</a></p><p>June 15 video shows IAEA's Grossi making a visit to check on the plant after the dam collapse and assure everyone there was no immediate danger. This is when he saw no friggin' landmines in the friggin' cooling pond he checked on, or in the spray pools either. Here he is at the latter, being shown pipes long-since punctured in Ukrainian attacks, and probably those US-supplied M777 howitzer shell fragments they found, that probably did this damage. <a href="https://t.me/readovkanews/60852">https://t.me/readovkanews/60852</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvJFPBy4psCOFaRmtvNyConwYueWUSrb1i0QxS9EyCdgxmqvPfD8x4N8JI6O4w3HZEfGolDr3jmdd6HEhWwKhO39cCJ1DwNJ84ywY_YnP5iVx2p24MnZr6kySefwh8pfZVk0SD6s7U3uXwYs4vve_7jfHx1fR7wmRFNBDSv5-Jcpx5CwW64LkwbcoQ_hRJ/s1253/Screenshot%20(4887).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="1253" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvJFPBy4psCOFaRmtvNyConwYueWUSrb1i0QxS9EyCdgxmqvPfD8x4N8JI6O4w3HZEfGolDr3jmdd6HEhWwKhO39cCJ1DwNJ84ywY_YnP5iVx2p24MnZr6kySefwh8pfZVk0SD6s7U3uXwYs4vve_7jfHx1fR7wmRFNBDSv5-Jcpx5CwW64LkwbcoQ_hRJ/w640-h354/Screenshot%20(4887).png" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">Everyone Already Knows Who Will Have Done It</span></b></div><p>Before 2022 was out, I was able to plausibly argue how <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/10/everybody-knows-ukraine-has-been.html">Everybody Knows Ukraine has been Shelling the ZNPP</a>. They might have forgotten by now, but I doubt it, and here's a reminder for everyone, summarized from that post, with some additions:</p><p><b>The UN and IAEA Know It:</b> Ukraine attacked the plant and Energodar and even landed forces around the city, according to the balance of evidence, early on September 1, initiating widely-noted clashes along the coast. This happened just as the IAEA inspection team was driving to the plant, threatening to cancel their visit. Russian forces were seen in action, claiming to turn back that offensive just in time to allow the inspectors safe passage. UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric afterwards thanked Russia, apparently, for protecting the IAEA team in this way. “We are glad that the Russian Federation did what it needed to do to keep our inspectors safe,” </p><p>Since then, the IAEA team has been there, heard everyone's accounts, seen the damage firsthand, and then left 2 observers behind as most of them returned home. They're clear the plant was shelled on several occasions, threatening operations. But in their September 5 report, before it and ever since, the IAEA apparently cannot say who is to blame, aside from someone within the class "all parties." Or they could say but refuse to, perhaps at someone's behest. But they are clear the responsible part(ies) need to stop it, or else they risk ... being told that again. </p><p>When asked who is "playing with fire," referencing Grossi's own remarks from Sunday following powerful explosions that rocked the nuclear power plant Saturday and Sunday, Grossi said "it is very difficult for us to identify from inside the plant who is doing that," adding "by the way, our main goal is to get this to stop, not to get into a game of attribution." (<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-24-22/h_d2ef96d559e954db37743f99df5670af">CNN</a>) There are several ways they could find this out, ESPECIALLY from inside the plant, where the impacts occurred. I didn't invent the principles involved in the ballistic analysis I've used to get an idea, just from available images. The IAEA had experts documenting the damaged on-site, and probably subjecting it to some analysis. But the agency has never publicized the results of any analysis. As far as I know, they are allowed to pin blame, and are capable of determining it, and yet they refuse. </p><p><b>Western Leaders Know It: </b>A September 9 statement from "the ministers of Foreign Affairs of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Ukraine and senior officials from the Republic of Korea, Switzerland, the United States of America, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy" says: <b>"We emphasize that Russia’s seizure and militarization of the ZNPP is <i>the root cause</i> of the current threats" </b>to the plant and it will stay this dangerous "as long as Russia remains present on the site of ZNPP." What do they mean here? </p><p>* The root cause of <i>Russians</i> attacking the plant is ... because Russian forces are there </p><p>* The root cause of <i>Ukrainians</i> attacking the plant is ... because Russian forces are there </p><p>Yeah. If they could bring themselves to explicitly pin the root AND direct cause on Russia, as Ukraine brazenly and illogically does, they surely would. But <b>Western leaders realize that the actual shelling - the <i>direct</i> cause of the danger - is by the Ukrainians.</b> They could demand that Ukraine stop, but they share the same goal as the attackers - to demonize and complicate Russia's occupation of the plant and hopefully force it to end. So <b>they say nothing about the actual attacks except to suggest they are completely justified by Russia's presence, and will rightly continue, or maybe even escalate into a catastrophe to be blamed, one way or another, on Russia.</b></p><p><b>The Ukrainian Forces DOING It - And Their Relevant Leaders - Know What They're Doing: </b>Maybe they don't all know it, but President Zelenskyy for one seems to get it, so I imagine quite a few brighter people also realize. </p><p>It's his government that initially resisted an IAEA visit and investigation into the shelling. BBC, Aug. 3: "The IAEA's director-general said he was trying to put together a mission as soon as possible to visit the plant but this required the approval of both the Ukrainian and Russian sides ... In June, Ukraine's state nuclear company [Energoatom] said Ukraine had not invited the IAEA - and any visit would legitimise Russia's presence there." Bloomberg Aug. 8: "Russia told diplomats it’s ready to welcome international monitors" but "[IAEA director-General] Grossi said he needs permission from Ukraine’s government" but he still didn't have it. Al Jazeera, Aug. 8: "In a statement, Russia’s foreign ministry said it wanted the (IAEA) to visit ... but that Kyiv was blocking a potential visit. ... Zakharova also claimed Moscow had done everything it could to facilitate a visit by the UN’s nuclear watchdog to the plant but that Kyiv saw it as “beneficial to keep the IAEA away”."</p><p>"Mikhail Podolyak (& hence the Zelensky Office) are skeptical about the IAEA visit to the ZNPP. “International institutions and mediation missions look extremely ineffective, extremely cowardly. ...You don’t trust them already at the entrance,” said Podolyak." (Evdokimova) They could be another "Russian Propaganda front" like Amnesty International! You don't need people like snooping around.</p><p>The mission pushed ahead, arriving in Ukraine, crossing through Ukrainian territory as Kiev demanded, then faced shelling after it crossed to the Russian side, and UAF allegedly tried to conquer the area immediately ahead of the inspectors, again, raising dangers that are maybe best answered by turning back ... but after Russia blew some things up, the mission pushed ahead with thanks.</p><p>And what did the commander-in-chief of the alleged attacks have to say? Once the team arrived, Zelenskyy said "Today, the IAEA mission arrived at Zaporizhzhia NPP. It's good that it happened. The fact itself despite all the provocations by the Russian military and the cynical shelling of Enerhodar and the territory of the plant. Ukraine did everything to make this mission happen. But it is bad that the occupiers are trying to turn this IAEA mission - a really necessary one - into <b>a fruitless tour of the plant. I believe that this will be prevented."</b> I suspect he had just TRIED to prevent it and failed.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUmLHxaLZQU_mRcCAAW3VmhcTBWF37dwwlleTCUy3U6_tf3hsvytYdTC8UNTxup96JhXepG6sSrsrdZ9-1a7caynknUviatsXfMdNZdEZYOZdNtJajFsdkZF3S5rkrlgsU9Y__tDQHQPS8v4EXIlbjqmQn_hR-dNrUWRzL9_wrMbzM8BKXUKn_Qq7oHQfE/s500/Screenshot%20(2387).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="496" data-original-width="500" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUmLHxaLZQU_mRcCAAW3VmhcTBWF37dwwlleTCUy3U6_tf3hsvytYdTC8UNTxup96JhXepG6sSrsrdZ9-1a7caynknUviatsXfMdNZdEZYOZdNtJajFsdkZF3S5rkrlgsU9Y__tDQHQPS8v4EXIlbjqmQn_hR-dNrUWRzL9_wrMbzM8BKXUKn_Qq7oHQfE/w320-h317/Screenshot%20(2387).png" width="320" /></a></div><p>No one was explicitly called out. The motives and methods stayed about the same, and attacks continued into September and October before<b> <span style="background-color: #ffd966;">Zelenskyy "said the only way to <i>ensure</i> radiation safety near Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), as well as in the rest of Ukraine and Europe, is "the complete demilitarization of the territory" surrounding the plant." Russia needs to leave.</span> </b>Many agree that the Russians should leave, of course. But note that until his demands are met, <b>Zelenskyy seems <i>quite sure</i> someone will keep shelling the place</b> and denying "radiation safety" to a lot of people far and wide. He's certain <i>the Russians</i> WON'T attack once they leave ... because they ONLY shell the places they are? That is possible, but how can he be so SURE? Is this shelling somehow an issue that's up to him (at least ostensibly), so he can issue such assurances? <b><span style="background-color: #ffd966;">If we can take Zelenskyy at his word on this point, what does that mean, folks? It's called NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL, plain as day.</span> </b>It's greased along with cynical inversions of the truth of the kind underwriting the new Ukraine since its bloody birthing in the dark corners of 2014.</p><p></p><p><b>The Russians Know it:</b> Just for one example, a Russian <a href="https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1830064/">statement</a> to the IAEA Board of Governors last September claimed "since July 18, 2022, Ukrainian armed formations have shelled the territory of the ZNPP and its infrastructure more than 30 times, firing more than 120 artillery shells and using at least 16 kamikaze drones." Furthermore, it states, "the satellite city of ZNPP Enerhodar, where the station's employees and their families live, was shelled more than 70 times during the same period (10 times from drones and more than 60 times from barrel artillery and multiple launch rocket systems)." </p><p><b>The Locals of Energodar Know It:</b> Over 20,000 residents reportedly signed a petition for IAEA chief Rafeal Grossi ahead of his September, 2022 visit, declaring "Mr. Grossi, leaders of the IAEA member countries, We, the residents of the Zaporizhzhia region, appeal to you to stop the provocations of Ukraine aimed at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. We ask you to strongly condemn the actions of the Ukrainian leadership to escalate the situation around the Zaporizhya nuclear power plant and warn of responsibility to the world community in the event of continued shelling of the station." Grossi thanked them. The shelling has continued with hardly any note from the outside world.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivclSmt8tUQlBFQeJg4tjrH9oAozmBITPfS7nHQOdsnn_k9WgadCQMAfrQSasFakKz0DqaorTe5w8S-kyNrKlQdBYu9OI_C8PvDl0V-TIUVEKPvNAkSMQ3za_XJw0K405sPQZrbrVZ-XfSN7QA_IjeSYwCo-vwCwlp4iYnbQxcyyQGr5zT5hJ7MNqkDrWl/s430/Zap_Kotin.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="353" data-original-width="430" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivclSmt8tUQlBFQeJg4tjrH9oAozmBITPfS7nHQOdsnn_k9WgadCQMAfrQSasFakKz0DqaorTe5w8S-kyNrKlQdBYu9OI_C8PvDl0V-TIUVEKPvNAkSMQ3za_XJw0K405sPQZrbrVZ-XfSN7QA_IjeSYwCo-vwCwlp4iYnbQxcyyQGr5zT5hJ7MNqkDrWl/s320/Zap_Kotin.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><b>Energoatom Management Knows It:</b> Here's Energoatom's president Petro Kotin. I'm not sure if he's military or just likes that style, but he's an active weaponizer of his nation's nuclear plants. He'll collaborate on any nuclear false-flag plan Kyiv cooks up. He's a threat to global peace and security. Ukraine's nuclear regulator regularly complains of Russian attacks from and against the ZNPP, ignoring an admitted Ukrainian attack there, and ignoring or even distorting the ballistic evidence in other attacks to absolve Ukraine and keep blaming Russia, and repeatedly helped sow fake stories to keep fears stoked, and <b>allegedly switched off the external power to the ZNPP </b>just to blame it on Russian shelling and complain of the danger it creates. <b>They also seemingly allowed their South Ukraine NPP - or the grounds dangerously near it - to be used for Ukrainian rocket shelling. </b>Energoatom only complained with video when the Russians fired back at the launcher, as the video shows (by showing the lingering exhaust plumes or the outgoing rockets), hitting dangerously close to their nuclear plant. It was entirely unprovoked, they say, just the Russians mindlessly hoping to cause a nuclear disaster anywhere, unlike the heroic Energoatom. (<a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/09/ukrainian-militarization-root-cause-of.html">see here</a>) </div><div><p></p><p><b>Former ZNPP Director Murashov Knows It: </b>Igor Murashov was trusted to be the plant's general manager until he wasn't, and the Russians famously arrested him on September 20. There were fears he'd be murdered, but he was soon released after speaking to investigators and "expelled to the territory controlled by Kiev." Under duress, but maybe truthfully, Murashov admitting to "having ties with the Ukrainian special services" and helping them coordinate "terrorist activities" at the plant and in Energodar. "He said he was aware that the shelling of the strategic facility was done by the armed forces of Ukraine and could cause emergencies." </p><p></p><p><b>Plant Workers Variously Know It: </b>There was a story I saw in passing, but never included in my blog, about a security guard at the plant who was injured in one of the shelling attacks, is sure Ukraine was behind it, and now fully supports the Russian military, collecting supplies to help them out. If that's true, he'll be on Ukraine's kill list of traitors. One security guard - perhaps the same one - was injured in the August 6 attack from the NW. </p><p>Another plant worker at least was <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/11/ukrainian-shelling-kills-znpp-worker.html">killed August 22</a> in an off-site attack as he was on his way to work, along with the taxi driver. The responsible shell was clearly fired from NW, Kamianske/Chkalove direction, likely aiming for an electric substation they were passing. It's hard to say what he knew or thought about the shelling that killed him. </p><p>Others know and process the facts differently. An unnamed engineer at the plant told the BBC he realizes the artillery fire is coming in largely from the northwest and thus appears to be Ukrainian, but ... it's all faked in a Russian false-flag, he claims, "simulating "arrivals" from Nikopol." Otherwise, hardly anyone mentions how the shells seem to come from the north. </p><p>Yet other "employees of the Zaporozhye NPP receive messages with threats of reprisals from the Kyiv authorities, the head of the Zaporizhzhya movement "We are with Russia" Vladimir Rogov told RIA Novosti. “They try to intimidate people, publish personal data on social networks, and also threaten with reprisals and murders. This is done both publicly and personally by sending messages through various instant messengers." (May 12 https://ria.ru/20230512/zaes-1871185656.html - https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/1800)</p><p><b>Some Arrested Plant Workers Probably Know It Quite Well: </b>On August 17, following 4 UAF artillery attacks on the plant in a week, Russian-linked sources reported the arrest of two plant workers in Energodar: artillery spotters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who "helped to strike at the territory of the nuclear power plant and the city." Two detainees are named. I don't feel like sharing the names here, but jobs: one was "a security guard at a 750 kV open switchgear (ORU-750)" (area hit by shelling on August 5) and the other is "an engineer." (not the same one that spoke to BBC?) Russian news video shows the arrest raid, a man laying face-down at gunpoint. We're shown notebooks full of numbers and diagrams, including of military vehicles. They had a crude but accurate model of the nuclear plant built up from scraps - see below. There's a raised security perimeter along the right lines, all 6 reactor blocks (but not turbine halls), and important nearby structures, including both special buildings, #2 with a "melted" smokestack and #1 with none at all. But they painted the stripes! They must just love their work.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieB0KxelB1AH8iTws67AG0oRPGoNeQNTzsKlqtr7bAYklgElpNjqksuZ1xl8dDlOPLT4eJTAzZtFBJE7dm1Z2txBoWteHs0oCntFyAMrIvEP2XnQuP5sha4OL9SZ0X6OvDaCIurAbVwKBY4vWY-VzSYbLWLklsl9KS4yrpXCdKrHHorku4GOPlJHMnwQ/s640/Screenshot%20(2551).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="640" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieB0KxelB1AH8iTws67AG0oRPGoNeQNTzsKlqtr7bAYklgElpNjqksuZ1xl8dDlOPLT4eJTAzZtFBJE7dm1Z2txBoWteHs0oCntFyAMrIvEP2XnQuP5sha4OL9SZ0X6OvDaCIurAbVwKBY4vWY-VzSYbLWLklsl9KS4yrpXCdKrHHorku4GOPlJHMnwQ/w640-h360/Screenshot%20(2551).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Adds: April 11, 2023: Karchaa: informants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are periodically identified at the Zaporozhye NPP - Special services periodically identify informers of Ukrainian nationalists at the Zaporozhye NPP. Renat Karchaa, adviser to the general director of the Rosenergoatom concern, announced this. - He clarified that there are few UAF agents, and they are calculated very quickly. In this case, measures are taken only if the fault of the informant is proven. https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/1692</p><p>May 28: <b>Saboteurs preparing a series of terrorist attacks at the ZNPP </b>reportedly arrested in Energodar. The attackers had (https://t.me/energodar_ru/6224) maps and plans of the nuclear power plant with marks for delivering strikes that could lead to a nuclear catastrophe. In addition, Ukrainian saboteurs used foreign satellite systems for communication, as well as weapons for strikes and equipment for conducting reconnaissance and sabotage activities. https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/1873</p><p><br /></p></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-47730132974060868952023-06-29T09:25:00.023-07:002023-07-29T23:34:07.872-07:00Nova Kahkovka Dam: Four Frontline Floodgates<p><b>Part 3 of What Caused the Collapse of the Nova Kakhovka Dam?</b></p><p><b>June 29, 2023</b></p><p><b>(slightly rough, incomplete)</b></p><p><b>(adds/edits June 30, July 1, 4, 18...) add 7/29</b></p><p><a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/what-caused-collapse-of-nova-kakhovka.html">My part 1</a> considered hydrologic erosion vs. damage - from onetime Russian bombing and repeated Ukrainian rocket shelling - in the June 6 collapse of Nova Kakhovka dam. Initially I took erosion as unlikely to matter and some kind of attack - by either side, and I'd suspect Ukraine - as "at least 50% likely." That's been greatly downgraded since, but not ruled out ... may be some smaller explosions were involved to start or just worsen a collapse that might well have occurred - and more than likely did occur - without explosives, </p><p><a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/did-ukraine-break-dnipro-river-and-nova.html">My last post</a> is part 2 and explained the hydrologic overload that may have caused, or at least worsened, the Nova Kakhovka dam catastrophe, and how <b>it might have been deliberately engineered by Ukraine. </b> It was their dams and reservoirs - five of them - that came out low as they made it so far too much water came in to Lake Kakhovka, filling the reservoir from record lows to 100% full in a matter of weeks, and keeping it ~100% full for a month, for a massive and high-centered volume. This came as the reservoir had some of its emptying tools disabled months earlier, and it used the rest to drain water at such a rate it flooded the river downstream past safe levels in May and June, flooding Russian trenches and reportedly killing one soldier, and probably, somehow, causing or worsening erosion that finally undermined the dam. </p><p>What I'm looking at now, in my amateur effort, is how that initial collapse came to be at just that time. Neither post has tried to really explain just how water alone (almost alone) could do this. Erosion details will come in part 4. First, we'll consider some mysterious attack(s) on the dam and its sluice gates, or floodgates, and how and why these gates were so poorly-managed during the spring flood season or Ukrainian river offensive.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">November: Attack the Floodgates</span></b></p><p>We'll start with Major General Andrey Kovalchuk, head of Ukraine's 2022 offensive in the Kherson area, as cited in a December, 2022 Washington Post article on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20221229064018/https:/www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/">The Ukrainian counteroffensive that shocked Putin and reshaped the war (archive.org)</a>. "</p><p></p><blockquote><i><span style="font-size: medium;">Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted <b>a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages. </b>The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.</span></i></blockquote><p></p><p>This "test" sounds like an actual strike on the dam, not on some test model, causing real damage to this important piece of civilian infrastructure. The article specifies no date and no gate, but that seemed worth establishing if possible.</p><p>First,<b> it seems the attack happened sometime between satellite images of October 18 and November 12, and it damaged floodgate 1. </b>We can get this specific just comparing two images. Water flowing through a floodgate will usually be visible from above as a frothy streak on the surface. The top view shows regular flow from several open gates, and none from the closed gates at the dam's far ends. By the next view, even with all 28 floodgates closed, a light, uneven flows appear in 2 new areas at the far ends, both suggesting recent damage. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9_vPW3GzP-5hgPI3AFTYHNPi3zVOHv_a8e9-IUwyLrdydbuCffQBzsofT_Wkoe86r4I5kwSg-6qMwyk8ssvYjxDck-Q7FXdwAhsXWORfvZGjFk-uuWRrnaZfd7QysRY1C31GiLAHIx52gN0pIr8ev14r2D2ktV18nOVN2RopG3xNEtf0KiM1qkD9NnvHY/s900/NK_Dam_10-18-11-12_comp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="850" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9_vPW3GzP-5hgPI3AFTYHNPi3zVOHv_a8e9-IUwyLrdydbuCffQBzsofT_Wkoe86r4I5kwSg-6qMwyk8ssvYjxDck-Q7FXdwAhsXWORfvZGjFk-uuWRrnaZfd7QysRY1C31GiLAHIx52gN0pIr8ev14r2D2ktV18nOVN2RopG3xNEtf0KiM1qkD9NnvHY/w604-h640/NK_Dam_10-18-11-12_comp.png" width="604" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5Xob6uPS8OM4hBhX7eYZmTwIvT4xWSFRWb3YwzkQEKSxUT7fO3ULUbHy0XhBMI3a7rfiReR_POXdDV_FihUuw2TTfCCdsiOEpeEuuACBpXPgHM_go1K4bOWYqfF6SwEaddkjFfuxNWfP2BeubAY7fBYWc8yD9QQo6iJeEBEQX5sr9-MpO4ECu-ZEUoyX8/s1217/Screenshot%20(4805).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="669" data-original-width="1217" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5Xob6uPS8OM4hBhX7eYZmTwIvT4xWSFRWb3YwzkQEKSxUT7fO3ULUbHy0XhBMI3a7rfiReR_POXdDV_FihUuw2TTfCCdsiOEpeEuuACBpXPgHM_go1K4bOWYqfF6SwEaddkjFfuxNWfP2BeubAY7fBYWc8yD9QQo6iJeEBEQX5sr9-MpO4ECu-ZEUoyX8/s320/Screenshot%20(4805).png" width="320" /></a></div>At gates 26-28 on the right, the flow begins where the roadway above has been blasted away. Other views show this water mainly flows under the closed gates now that they're misaligned. (November 13 video). That roadway was demolished the night of November 11, by the Russians, after they retreated from the north bank, to prevent Ukrainians following them or getting vehicles on the bridge at all. What seem to be explosive-filled vehicles were later set on the road nearby, probably to deter any Ukrainians from trying to cross on foot. No car bombs or erosion here mattered in the collapse; this section alone remains, with those 2 vehicles still parked. <p></p><p>But as marked in red above, there's a similar flow at the dam's other end, from gate 1, also appearing since the last image, perhaps also from damage that's not as clear. At this point, damage-related leakage comes from just 2 spots, and no others appear later. And so only gate 1 pops out as having otherwise unexplained damage, and is thus probably the one proudly hit in that "test strike." </p><p>A photo published months later "on social networks" (still to track down) was passed on by Ukrainian FLASH news, among others, showing the sorry state of an unspecified floodgate at the dam. "It is physically impossible to stop the discharge of water at the moment." (<a href="https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1632868901053779972">FLASH on Twitter</a> March 6) From that gate, indeed. It would run about like that until collapse in June. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ4a_uBth4hn7AuiIPVxolNOAJ3pHZKxgukiveBOInn8gvKLA8LQ1pDy5dHgwU_LjGUxoqmJ2J7fU99WseRwH0aiq3HJaJ1Ed2u0ZtanPU1Y7d5o71D70GWVZ7DTq-LUECc8v1AUXLleNgpmvkHTNfB-UNTTKsKpUoC221ydabcE4HOBRvBvpQqGR59tsx/s900/NK_Dam_gate_1_damaged.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="900" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ4a_uBth4hn7AuiIPVxolNOAJ3pHZKxgukiveBOInn8gvKLA8LQ1pDy5dHgwU_LjGUxoqmJ2J7fU99WseRwH0aiq3HJaJ1Ed2u0ZtanPU1Y7d5o71D70GWVZ7DTq-LUECc8v1AUXLleNgpmvkHTNfB-UNTTKsKpUoC221ydabcE4HOBRvBvpQqGR59tsx/w640-h480/NK_Dam_gate_1_damaged.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Rossiya 1 filed a report (details...), with some screenshot shared by OSINTJOURNO on Twitter. The frame below gives a better view. There might be "3 holes," but mainly I see one big hole torn out on the right, below that loose walkway, allowing a serious geyser, along with the nearby edge tearing and overall massive buckling that pulled the gate from its securing rails, letting water also spray around the sides. The damage is worse than it sounded. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn_9tAnx4Lc2bVQaPIlFqsUojQuSollo1AeDi6LymvezIR9kqzcG1Vu8Km82UJPk7bRPb1PLKKwtF8G9BNxSFtfhP5Kxx0h2QBmlZKscsdohqVc9VSb1HZ2KDb7a6CMnn6nnIguL3Gm6MafERVi_DOy8czCS3thz0o8ShDdeBfcOwTiOQ5KcE-r9oO1pjy/s1916/NK_Dam_gate_1_b.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1078" data-original-width="1916" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn_9tAnx4Lc2bVQaPIlFqsUojQuSollo1AeDi6LymvezIR9kqzcG1Vu8Km82UJPk7bRPb1PLKKwtF8G9BNxSFtfhP5Kxx0h2QBmlZKscsdohqVc9VSb1HZ2KDb7a6CMnn6nnIguL3Gm6MafERVi_DOy8czCS3thz0o8ShDdeBfcOwTiOQ5KcE-r9oO1pjy/w640-h360/NK_Dam_gate_1_b.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Again, unexplained foamy discharge appears only at gate 1, starting by November 12. NPR's Geoff Brumfiel also decided this is gate 1 from details in the damage photo - a gantry crane is seen parked above gate 3 to the left, and gate 1 has a missing rail or trestle that sets it apart (<a href="https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1633240659774566400">on Twitter</a>). Both details seen close up at the rocket impact point. We see the blue legs of gantry crane 2 above sluice gate 3, then the inflows to gate 2, above which the damage starts, and gate 1 where it mainly is. The top of bent gate 1 is just off frame at bottom left. (<a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672756030529208323">photo provided to OSINTJOURNO</a>)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoCL6rY8iOBwm9yQRtfL7-SLNL7TTPYH-5p2EnFJT7gO5tC4JhQKNRsXCIiJOVhFrXpY-6_vcSDCdlyYG8NHMyY6Ccjq1vUIQ797vUh7AromTZKLHNYyv6_UWvGYMwGl9PqbDI9VT-At29MKhYF1XoSDpzlbTTqESgDObjf2waVmd7thoxMSBXmRrMo3zL/s1024/NK_Dam_gate_1_impact.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="1024" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoCL6rY8iOBwm9yQRtfL7-SLNL7TTPYH-5p2EnFJT7gO5tC4JhQKNRsXCIiJOVhFrXpY-6_vcSDCdlyYG8NHMyY6Ccjq1vUIQ797vUh7AromTZKLHNYyv6_UWvGYMwGl9PqbDI9VT-At29MKhYF1XoSDpzlbTTqESgDObjf2waVmd7thoxMSBXmRrMo3zL/w640-h360/NK_Dam_gate_1_impact.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTLJZI34M6hc_7pDuWs51pQEZrsVWP901JHnt3L_90-9YmkBMCi85UQL5DURUAnhKXtJO5rHARLG_NRIgL8i7Lt1zqllJ3kNKfjnwCA0J7zyjr5IsktS2CXdV1ASuBxz1Ohwpic8z2XJcDA8dtCxGNnoTQtxTOqY2UjgE7UR_A5PxMo3E5fkxoTnRYf5YS/s1102/NK_Dam_gate3_crane_impacts.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1102" data-original-width="598" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTLJZI34M6hc_7pDuWs51pQEZrsVWP901JHnt3L_90-9YmkBMCi85UQL5DURUAnhKXtJO5rHARLG_NRIgL8i7Lt1zqllJ3kNKfjnwCA0J7zyjr5IsktS2CXdV1ASuBxz1Ohwpic8z2XJcDA8dtCxGNnoTQtxTOqY2UjgE7UR_A5PxMo3E5fkxoTnRYf5YS/w348-h640/NK_Dam_gate3_crane_impacts.png" width="348" /></a></div>Here is that damage mapped, along with 3 other damage points, boxed in red. First, they're absent on September 2, as the hits from at least 2 attacks in August have perforated the curved roadway (gold box). Next, on November 12, damage appears in the red boxes: 2 of them just clearly enough to say, one less clear and one hidden. Gate 1 and roadway near gate 3 seem to have happened. (An October 18 view isn't very clear, but seems to hold from September.) So I'm calling these - roughly - August and November attacks on the dam - with some reported others in between being even less clear.<p>Russia's mission to the UN <a href="https://russiaun.ru/en/news/100623_k">published a letter</a> listing dozens of Ukrainian attacks on the dam and its environs. "Overall, during the summer and fall of 2022," it says, "the total of more than 300 missiles were launched from MLRS HIMARS alone against the Kakhovka HPP," and some other rocket models were also used. Some basic details are given, with just one case mentioning the floodgates, and check the date: <b>"On 6 November 2022, the HPP was shelled with 6 HIMARS missiles. One of them hit and damaged the flood-gate of the dam."</b></p><p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-russian-held-nova-kakhovka-dam-damaged-shelling-russian-media-2022-11-06/">Reuters, November 6</a>: "State-owned news agency TASS quoted a representative of the emergency services as saying that a rocket launched by a U.S.-made HIMARS missile system had hit the dam's lock and caused damaged. The official quoted said it was an "attempt to create the conditions for a humanitarian catastrophe" by breaching the dam. The reports provided no evidence to support the allegation, which could not be immediately verified by Reuters." "Lock" sounds more like the lock than a floodgate or sluice gate, but maybe it's in how the word usually translates from Russian.</p><p><a href="https://t.me/readovkanews/46296">Readovka News reported at the time</a>: </p><p>“Today at 10 am, 6 HIMARS missiles hit. Air defense units shot down 5 missiles, one hit the lock of the Kakhovka dam, which was destroyed." That's 11 HIMARS sent, as reported.</p><p>The lock/flood-gate hit Nov. 6 is almost certainly the same gate 1 we've seen damaged, and that was leaking by November 12. Since the September view, two other visible impacts appear on either side of gate 3, and what might be 2 close impacts, patched-over, appear on the roadway near gate 5 or 6. All likely relate, maybe from the same attack, with 1-2 other impacts being less visible.</p><p>Comparing the impact point at gate 1 to the gate's off-center bend - and assuming that's all from one impact - I found this rocket came from the northeast, roughly from the Nikopol direction, at a distance I won't even venture. But noting the underwater blast suggested at the gate, this might be 2 impacts. But these rockets all came from somewhere Ukrainian; they say it was a US-supplied HIMARS, and thanks. They found they COULD damage the dam and maybe flood the Dnipro downstream, to effect crossings and such. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfj1ZraqVBC2sQXx_Nzm7jzgQhoElkjTE_-oge4BULju1pGI1s_XwyTgY1EwmHPsSJk5J3hcHGFPmV2DMXHCbEAij0cS55fSA9bRwfPlt9l8X69wpTrRIO4oWX8gT4eCq8Vo8kNOIyelxPxgQeJm012QWHgK7Pz8q9QS6yh2izn7ipzTqg9gVM_7aIxQdZ/s740/Screenshot%20(4721).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="521" data-original-width="740" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfj1ZraqVBC2sQXx_Nzm7jzgQhoElkjTE_-oge4BULju1pGI1s_XwyTgY1EwmHPsSJk5J3hcHGFPmV2DMXHCbEAij0cS55fSA9bRwfPlt9l8X69wpTrRIO4oWX8gT4eCq8Vo8kNOIyelxPxgQeJm012QWHgK7Pz8q9QS6yh2izn7ipzTqg9gVM_7aIxQdZ/w640-h450/Screenshot%20(4721).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>No other floodgates I've seen are clearly damaged, but <b>two rockets fell on either side of gate 3</b>, quite likely in the same attack on the 6th. Signs discussed below suggest this gate was at least partially opened before it apparently lost power, sometime after November 15, so at least nine days after the attack in question. If the damage is from November 6, neither the gate nor the cranes were damaged enough to prevent their moving around and opening this one. </p><p>OSINTJOURNALIST has some close-up views on the SE side of gate 3. </p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672332173704085504">https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672332173704085504</a> - <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672332946437464064">https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672332946437464064</a> - <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672889668973502467">https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672889668973502467</a> </p><p>I'm still not sure how the scene and all these views correlate in time and space - some views show some rubble and a toppled fence further over, near gate 5 or 6, where a roadway impact is evident. No closeups of gate 5, but 3 has a ledge demolished just a few meters from the gate, and some walkway with lip that it keeps looking different. The spot always looked complex even from above. <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672332762320105472">A less clear photo</a> (to me, when I looked) was said to show how <b>"the foundation immediately west of gate 3 is giving way. " </b>It looks like a "before" photo but it seems like a complex couple of views. I suffered minutes of headache before giving up on making full sense of it. Here, the most dramatic view with the best context: </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7etInnXHuYWzYaBRSPKMjwbQ5cqwwggx1-kXnpe97ey-4sh7kRjkSvV8SXQ6fFBBNB5sX7BknGFKgQIVU00VwlJhLizSIhOo0jUeW4hU8vzg6x0sP-QPCsSmEVNHSRHx41-oEfG_SImfLMiINxwOxuEAjcdWSlMHuiQ8T3FW4Ua7ZYoRvLo_7ENMmSEeA/s900/NK_Dam_Gate_3_damage_A.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="900" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7etInnXHuYWzYaBRSPKMjwbQ5cqwwggx1-kXnpe97ey-4sh7kRjkSvV8SXQ6fFBBNB5sX7BknGFKgQIVU00VwlJhLizSIhOo0jUeW4hU8vzg6x0sP-QPCsSmEVNHSRHx41-oEfG_SImfLMiINxwOxuEAjcdWSlMHuiQ8T3FW4Ua7ZYoRvLo_7ENMmSEeA/w640-h480/NK_Dam_Gate_3_damage_A.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Coming from the north-northeast, the damage we see is from the direct rocket impact and low-angled, "back" side of the blast wave. Fragments on this side would mainly go down into the water ramp and the wall on the left, and maybe the lower gate, if it were closed then (as it was on Nov. 6). The higher-angled forward blast wave and fragments spread would be to the right, towards the hydro plant's powerhouse nearby.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">One more view, looking down, we see the likely reason for unclear flow at gate 3: the water is probably passing through a screen of reinforcing bar and concrete that dangles way down. </div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis_8b3aPSTtyrS-it2MmrECG_CGOP1i-TdDIDzOO49e-J58lhGpJjl_KckF29EjG_xqT3hoA5SSKiVPJ3ciP33WuJpmlWiUvLY1YOKfgAFr3rDx5U564JZXU6LacxnB2BsGR6baQmt9f4NUqfqEmOBou2-u8orENcaCaW2S737ruGlphPDGFZnYYhe8kzR/s958/NK_Dam_gate%203%20damage_B.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="529" data-original-width="958" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis_8b3aPSTtyrS-it2MmrECG_CGOP1i-TdDIDzOO49e-J58lhGpJjl_KckF29EjG_xqT3hoA5SSKiVPJ3ciP33WuJpmlWiUvLY1YOKfgAFr3rDx5U564JZXU6LacxnB2BsGR6baQmt9f4NUqfqEmOBou2-u8orENcaCaW2S737ruGlphPDGFZnYYhe8kzR/w640-h354/NK_Dam_gate%203%20damage_B.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><p><b>Add July 18:</b> I made some sense of the scene, but it includes some before-and-after scenes and with unclear dates - maybe mostly from December, except the "before views" that should be, per known attacks, sometime prior to November 6. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvD60DdH9rOvAW4gU1Cpj0BFOBrj0qzjgeppLvFkO32Of2wZWnFTgrV_FznwDSC1eKKSXSPbPfHCBM820bFfWKZwvsjIgsFtdMEN3fxk3Q9ex2TW2oRKP8zHwsRhk4s4-XhxZSTXDfLQjvcJhVAcYjIFqeCOwUS3hUxI_TxlG-CK_GksDh7VMWxMG7aXGE/s1606/NK_Dam_Gate_3_damage_colorcoded.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1450" data-original-width="1606" height="578" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvD60DdH9rOvAW4gU1Cpj0BFOBrj0qzjgeppLvFkO32Of2wZWnFTgrV_FznwDSC1eKKSXSPbPfHCBM820bFfWKZwvsjIgsFtdMEN3fxk3Q9ex2TW2oRKP8zHwsRhk4s4-XhxZSTXDfLQjvcJhVAcYjIFqeCOwUS3hUxI_TxlG-CK_GksDh7VMWxMG7aXGE/w640-h578/NK_Dam_Gate_3_damage_colorcoded.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><div><p>Gate 3 seems mostly open but perhaps not entirely, and it's still held by the crane, as if it stopped in mid-opening, never releasing the gate like it would probably do after it was locked open. But this shelling didn't cause that; this damage and the apparent impact to the roadway on the other side of it seem to predate November 12, after which the cranes were seen moving around. </p><p>While dangerous erosion appears later near damaged gate 1 and stuck-open gate 3, the connection may be indirect. The constant and uneven flow could wreak havoc on a mud-lined riverbed, but considering the protective concrete basin - and even its being damaged in the same rocket attacks - it remains uncertain enough to cover in detail in my next post.</p><p>For now, consider this constant flow was due to the same 4 floodgates being open for months on end, with no change. And that's because the cranes that would move around opening them sat still for that whole time. I wondered when they stopped moving and why this happened. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>When </i>did the cranes stop moving?</span></b></p><p>David Helms <a href="https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1668349492691623955">posted the following slide</a>, showing the positions of the 2 cranes (blue) and open sluice gates (green), noting: "Russian occupiers stopped active water management after 1 DEC 2022 for no apparent reason" </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiporJXvvFrXWc9s3yiaRLqVHTWa0wDKxsbRz2gloGyyZl_nVhUv1ahSoFNgedsDoFQGzZ9dGT3l8VczPe8smoakADTDqC_Z8QDWNC93wqIYJUVPan8L6dBXXRSyosaXbI6HD3SLUb3aH-fXxP0q6-sRHuk1NYyJ0Yc_GuqfTXFZescwE7_9jAjfgKRD9HN/s960/NK_dam_Helms_Gates.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="960" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiporJXvvFrXWc9s3yiaRLqVHTWa0wDKxsbRz2gloGyyZl_nVhUv1ahSoFNgedsDoFQGzZ9dGT3l8VczPe8smoakADTDqC_Z8QDWNC93wqIYJUVPan8L6dBXXRSyosaXbI6HD3SLUb3aH-fXxP0q6-sRHuk1NYyJ0Yc_GuqfTXFZescwE7_9jAjfgKRD9HN/w640-h360/NK_dam_Helms_Gates.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>The night of Nov. 11 - the cranes were pulled back to the SE end prior to the roadway blast, and seen there the next day, parked over gates 5 and 6. So they weren't shut down by any shelling on the 6th. As Helms notes, the cranes moved again after the 11th and 12th, by twilight on the 13th (probably evening, but maybe morning?), and moved again sometime after that (between Nov. 15 and January 2) or as he says, after December 1, but I'm not sure why he's that specific. </p><p>I believe Helms is incorrect on gate 3 closed the whole time, and he's clearly wrong on gate 1 open later on, but otherwise ... <strike>Some of these images I haven't seen - notably Nov. 13 & 15</strike>. But I assume he read those as well as the others. It all makes sense. They're opening gates in sequence, 5 & 6, then at some point gates 3 and 7 were opened and the cranes were in their final positions, one over and maybe just opening gate 3, stopping perhaps mid-gate and never resuming ... complications arising, mainly because of Ukrainian meddling, was absolutely the norm here.</p><p>Helms re-posted the images I hadn't seen. November 13 has a video of the dam at twilight. As Helms called it, this shows the cranes moved to gates 3 and 6. Gate 6 is still closed, the hoist dangling high, unlike at 3, where it seems hanging low but still disconnected from the gate. Neither has been opened yet. <a href="https://twitter.com/grntmedia/status/1591848165636206592">ҐРУНТ on Twitter</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh6A7cL8DAapxBD9PX0jrf_9xduxu-wBFuJRwN0XY3HmORiEoSlN1qx5tw5EwZvBingYYCBPQUpVhbEYiFU4XpOpLFnFFIIUAUpjFx5F2fwdJMfh85lbz-VXSZY-v_2KGvj1Dz7ky6X2omBINZMFu_uMjNPDV1HGrnmqu-FloDpvJF4yPZQao9HxJG4vJV/s1747/Screenshot%20(4804).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="1747" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh6A7cL8DAapxBD9PX0jrf_9xduxu-wBFuJRwN0XY3HmORiEoSlN1qx5tw5EwZvBingYYCBPQUpVhbEYiFU4XpOpLFnFFIIUAUpjFx5F2fwdJMfh85lbz-VXSZY-v_2KGvj1Dz7ky6X2omBINZMFu_uMjNPDV1HGrnmqu-FloDpvJF4yPZQao9HxJG4vJV/w640-h342/Screenshot%20(4804).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The November 15 view is at Sentinel Hub - blurry, but it seems to show the same configuration. <a href="https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=46.77805&lng=33.36982&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-11-15T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-11-15T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&gain=2.3&gamma=0.5&downsampling=NEAREST&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22">Sentinel Hub EO Browser (sentinel-hub.com</a>. I checked for any later views; they were pretty regular to this date, but it's all just clouds or blank from here until a decent view on January 1, a good view on January 19 and then more in February.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHRsROrr2dwIahZv7Fw9UByMPdUjNoEnMkbB1aex_kho8FnI7S1nzOtqhY9ziCmzOwip-goQzwOySPOgWzl0QJGFZI6c3APS56cNfvc8JVV4qfpraTv54IyZoBv9BJB8xU4fl_8set0Q3sWwkUjxmtEC0J9Hzh5SLfwx1bUIJa7DkWTbmytr5-c86jEVSa/s1133/NK_Dam_11-15-22.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="897" data-original-width="1133" height="506" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHRsROrr2dwIahZv7Fw9UByMPdUjNoEnMkbB1aex_kho8FnI7S1nzOtqhY9ziCmzOwip-goQzwOySPOgWzl0QJGFZI6c3APS56cNfvc8JVV4qfpraTv54IyZoBv9BJB8xU4fl_8set0Q3sWwkUjxmtEC0J9Hzh5SLfwx1bUIJa7DkWTbmytr5-c86jEVSa/w640-h506/NK_Dam_11-15-22.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>The next clear view Helms or I know of is from January 2, with a February NPR report by Geoff Brumfiel, complaining how <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/10/1155761686/russia-is-draining-a-massive-ukrainian-reservoir-endangering-a-nuclear-plant">Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant</a>. This shows a new crane position, reached sometime since the last image. As called, crane 2 is over gate 8, but hasn't gotten it open. Since the last view, it had moved, opening gate 7. At this point, gates 3, 5, 6 & 7 have been pouring non-stop anywhere from a day to a month and a half, and gate 1 has been half-pouring for nearly 2 months.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6ZskSflYwboabG_jf04I9WxzEsN1usVVw_utFLPqGBo8F1VuvM1bmHco5wwnMH3kurKZTYfOfg3lqMXuZao07z054QRZw0qBgr_Mfz7rGi0NgQKCcCQ9XGTmSfXs3HeCBzOhlF9_c8nTP_lnWYssx6ANQeeEoZFRYW9NYZLsyrk83zExsSwdt8Jmc3jxB/s1460/NK_Dam_1-2-23.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1098" data-original-width="1460" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6ZskSflYwboabG_jf04I9WxzEsN1usVVw_utFLPqGBo8F1VuvM1bmHco5wwnMH3kurKZTYfOfg3lqMXuZao07z054QRZw0qBgr_Mfz7rGi0NgQKCcCQ9XGTmSfXs3HeCBzOhlF9_c8nTP_lnWYssx6ANQeeEoZFRYW9NYZLsyrk83zExsSwdt8Jmc3jxB/w640-h482/NK_Dam_1-2-23.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>And finally,<b> the photo of gate 1 damage seems to show the final crane positions</b>; crane 2 is still at gate 3, but unlike on November 13, it seems frozen in mid-hoist. Crane 2 seems to be farther off, around gate 8. The photo surfaced in March, but as some noted, it must have been much older. The water level appears about a meter below splashing-over full, so around 16m or higher, while Hydroweb recorded levels in March were still below 15m. The best time for this level after the damage but before March is in or around early December - 16.07m reported December 2, after a quick rise and before a slow fall, and with some unclear days after. <a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/L_kakhovka?lang=en">Hydroweb (theia-land.fr)</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1633869231677919232">David Helms on Twitter</a> probably consulted the same to guess the photo was from late November. It's probably from that time and meant to show recent (weeks-old) damage plus new, dangerously high, water levels. <b>So it seems both cranes are immobile, possibly inoperable, by late November or early December, </b><b>when the level passed 16 meters</b><b>. That alone seems interesting.</b></div><div><p>The cited Hydroweb records show an unusual rise to 16.5m - the normal maximum allowed - in September, peaking on October 4. That was corrected over the following weeks with some emptying, to 15.5m - the normal low - and then down to 15.33. Then another sharp rise begins after November 13, with sharpest rise at first, between the 14th and 17th. <b>A week after the floodgates were damaged, was Ukraine pouring in extra water? Maybe as part of its "test" to "see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages?"</b> The level climbs steadily at least to December 2, rising at least 0.74m (from 15.33m to 16.07m). For a reservoir this size in 19 days, that's substantial. It might have gotten even higher just before that or just after, but before a net decline that appears by December 10, then a rise back to 15.95 on the 12th, but down from there.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix_3-YyEgmCHksrSHA08avGNCO_xnKfSsZFoBSPSwt7snzstlTG1WhweOEtMvNgl2SJD5TDDaSD-vj6CbSbs-KgKT6hIMZrJ9Ubjg0ZgooEhZYuWsLTm2nnSYB5xrN9jordFLcCwsCpuZr-GYtk1uRGmAlm7ZoGjqiEVZ7EPaYrYs-04pQhF6YvjzALcP_/s1343/Screenshot%20(4851).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="655" data-original-width="1343" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix_3-YyEgmCHksrSHA08avGNCO_xnKfSsZFoBSPSwt7snzstlTG1WhweOEtMvNgl2SJD5TDDaSD-vj6CbSbs-KgKT6hIMZrJ9Ubjg0ZgooEhZYuWsLTm2nnSYB5xrN9jordFLcCwsCpuZr-GYtk1uRGmAlm7ZoGjqiEVZ7EPaYrYs-04pQhF6YvjzALcP_/w640-h312/Screenshot%20(4851).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>This buildup might have been alarming, coming as it did atop a newly-damaged dam. As of November 13th, floodgates were being opened, perhaps to slow this rise. Crane 2 moved first, opening gate 5 where it had been parked, maybe skipping gate 4, and parking over the damage-flanked gate 3, not opening it yet. Helms suggests gate 4 was first opened, then closed in between stays at gate 3. but that's less logical, the swerving foam in the 11/13 video is unclear on its origin, and in that video, gate 4 doesn't <i>appear </i>raised like gate 5 is. I think just one gate is opened there. </p><p>This was apparently good enough, at least until midday on the 15th, when the same configuration is seen. The discharge then appears wider than just one gate - maybe 6 and/or 3 has been opened? If not, then it was later that Crane 1 moved, opening gate 6 where it was, then opening gate 7, and getting parked over gate 8 but not opening it yet. It was perhaps just then that crane 2 finally set to opening gate 3 when - perhaps all at once - they stopped. </p><p><strike><b>My best single guess as to when they stopped is shortly after that last view - later on November 15 or sometime the next day, when the water rise was fastest. </b>Logically, the operators were trying to slow that by opening more gates. They got 3 others open, but their sudden halt might explain the levels rising unabated to the 17th and maybe past (next entry with a milder rise is 11/23). If so, then any such flooding relented on its own - by just a bit - over the following 2 weeks, before it stopped sometime in December (there's a gap from 12/2 to 12/10 during which the level falls overall).<b> Kovalchuk reportedly "held off" on this "last resort."</b></strike> From then to February 2 the trend totally reverses and levels drop to that startling low of 14.06m. </p><p><b>All of that quite likely happened with no change in the Russian-managed floodgates after mid-November. </b></p><p><b>Add July 18: </b>revised thinking on this: the opening of 2-3 gates would have a bigger effect than I thought - the same was done in early October (by satellite views), reversing a serious buildup (per Hydroweb records). It was probably the same in December, as the final 2-3 floodgates were opened - probably after December 2 - to reverse the buildup and turn it to a decline by Dec. 10. Assuming the cranes were stopped in mid-process, they likely stopped sometime around Dec. 3 Dec. 7 or 8, or shortly before the December image of gate 1 showing the final crane position and high water levels only seen at this time. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Why</i> did the cranes stop moving?</span></b></p><p>OSINTJOURNO on Twitter is my source for some valuable photos already cited above, and some detailed research into dam construction, etc. that plays into my next post. This also comes with details from dam insiders that might shed light, but are dubious on balance. OSINTJOURNO is staunchly pro-Ukraine, but really seems to put the "open" back in "OSINT" anyway. That might prove an odd balance. Anyway, <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1671466268359098369">a valuable Twitter thread</a> started June 21 started off badly:</p><p>"I have spoken to several people who were employed at the Kakhovka HPP. Independently, they confirmed that the shelling with HIMARS rockets in 2022 did not cause visible damage the sluice gates." A September 2 image was shown. We also hear that "Crane 1 malfunctioned somewhere in February" and "The lifting mechanism of the sluice gates 2 to 28 is different from that of gate 1. Since crane 2 only contained the lifting beam for gate 1, only gate 1 could be operated." </p><p>These claims were shown wrong, as OSINTJOURNO seems to accept. There was definite visible damage at the first gate most people would see, gate 1, probably from November 6. That's late in the year, but still 2022. So gate 1 couldn't be operated. It wasn't the only one that could be. And crane 2 is seen parked over gate 3 & seems to have it open with whatever attachment it has. It should have been able open other gates, if it could keep running.</p><p>So the rest has to come with some grains of salt, and some pepper to get through this part. Let's consider OSINTJOURNO may hear from several people and just one tells fibs or makes up nonsense - sources seem to have too many stories, but maybe it all fits together somehow:</p><p><b>Version 1) </b>One crane alone suffers a malfunction, in January or February, and the other was useless past (undamaged) gate 1, and hence no more gates can be opened. "Crane 1 malfunctioned somewhere in February 2022. It was situated between gates 7 and 8 at that time and has remained there since then." I got agreement that should be 2023 (typo/error), and she added it could have been in January. This is what I panned above. Version 1 is rubbish. <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1671466274415603714">https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1671466274415603714</a></p><p><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIpUH-MRks5uh5Bcrc2q5dfL-nvNviVAQpCTxyMeRBnlkERHACgZ5T5N49dPjzr40jGrjvFSDIEuNjd9soUJMNnAKM5t1mGVPeMAW_OYskUbJTTBxA5ZVSk-87oCny2PGgWnKkOsSBP_uznhj_oNs7_xzitI0q37MGrNCM9jZRDN-6r_alW3VWD_JN7n0o/s829/Screenshot%20(4802).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="805" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIpUH-MRks5uh5Bcrc2q5dfL-nvNviVAQpCTxyMeRBnlkERHACgZ5T5N49dPjzr40jGrjvFSDIEuNjd9soUJMNnAKM5t1mGVPeMAW_OYskUbJTTBxA5ZVSk-87oCny2PGgWnKkOsSBP_uznhj_oNs7_xzitI0q37MGrNCM9jZRDN-6r_alW3VWD_JN7n0o/s320/Screenshot%20(4802).png" width="311" /></a></b></div><b>Version 2) </b>A power source on the Ukrainian side was severed by the Russians in their demolition of the roadway on November 11. "According to the former employees I have spoken to, the electricity for crane 1 and 2 (intended for operating gates 1 to 28) came from this transformer station on the Ukrainian-occupied side." <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672923284130746369">https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672923284130746369</a><p></p><p>This suggests the cranes ran on external electric power supplied via the bridge, perhaps by the rails the cranes moved on. David Helms had assumed they were run by diesel powered engines - which would make this story bogus - but he wasn't sure (<a href="https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1673476638397415427">Tweet</a>). Neither he nor I can tell how they ran, but external power seems plausible and it's what the insiders say. Someone else can probably just look and tell. If so, please let me know.</p><p>An off switch on the Ukrainian side sounds interesting, but <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672924180524695552">as OSINTJOURNO heard</a>, "Due to the destruction of the road surface, rails, and maintenance road adjacent to the rails (all above gates 28, 27, and 26), the electricity supply to crane 1 and 2 from the northern transformer station was interrupted." So as it sounded, the cranes were powerless, and gates 1-28 - all of them - would be left unchanged from November 12 forward. No malfunction in January or February seems likely.</p><p>David Helms refuted this along with me, noting the cranes moving around after that date. He was already on record about it. Helms is cited in a February NPR report: <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/10/1155761686/russia-is-draining-a-massive-ukrainian-reservoir-endangering-a-nuclear-plant">Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant</a>. "Then on Nov. 11, 2022, as Ukrainian forces advanced, Russian troops blew up a road over the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam" and "immediately after the detonation, it appears that Russian forces deliberately used two gantry cranes on the Russian-controlled side of the dam to open additional sluice gates, allowing water to rush out of the reservoir." </p><p><b>Version 3) </b>Inverting the above, OSINTJOURNO also heard a power source on the Russian side was disrupted by Ukrainian shelling: "According to the former employees I have spoken to, the electricity needed to operate the cranes was supplied from here to 6 different points where the cranes could tap into that electricity. The HIMARS bombardment caused an interruption in that electricity supply." <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672906920615886848">https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1672906920615886848</a> The indicated spot is on the Russian side, on the shoreward end of the HPP powerhouse. No damage to that spot has been seen, but a second photo of the impact at gate 1 is shown, perhaps suggesting the power was sent by rail and the missing rail disrupted that. But this was at gate 1, probably hit November 6. "The cranes" would both be de-powered in this scenario, but they moved well after that. And for goodness sake ... how many stories do these people have? Just one more ...</p><p><b>Version 4) </b>Crane power came from the north and south, and it's not clear what happened when. Only later did another detail appear, though it might have been there quietly all along. She referred back to the "statement made by ex employees to me stating that electricity for crane 1 and 2 <i>for operating northern gates </i>came from this substation." It said power for all 28 gates, north and south, but OK. With the road demolition, "that <i>nord [north] </i>powerfeed was cut." <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1673458203143680000">https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1673458203143680000</a> </p><p>After I missed that, she also added <i>"electricity for south operation gates 1 till 14</i> came from electricity housing south of turbine building. electricity for gates 15 till 28 came from north side." ("crane 3 operated on power rail mounted on wall" and seems only used for opening gates of the power plant) <a href="https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1673653721778077698">https://twitter.com/osintjourno/status/1673653721778077698</a></p><p>Such details could easily get lost in the shuffle of translation and re-transmission. Versions 2 & 3 merge into version 4, where the north power cut - if that ever happened - was irrelevant to cranes that never tried moving north of gate 8. (Also, any closer might put them in too much sniper danger, if it was even physically possible). </p><p>Finally: "In the weeks leading up to the collapse of the dam, they constantly warned that the water level was reaching catastrophically high levels and repeatedly advocated for the repair of crane 1 to enable the opening of multiple gates again. However, their pleas went unheard."</p><p>This suggests not just power supply but physical damage was at issue - or perhaps the "repairs" were to reconnect them to an alternate power source.</p><p>No stories yet told explain a power outage in mid-November or December. Maybe the sources were right about the switch on the Ukrainian side, but wrong about its being severed, or its only powering the north half - maybe it ran the whole length, even after November 11, until it was just switched off at some point. If the cranes were diesel powered, something else needs to explain it - some kind of sabotage from inside or outside, or it could even be a separate event that shut down each crane. And it's possible the Russians could operate the cranes just fine and simply refused to do it. In short, we have no clear answer as to why the cranes stopped moving.</p><p><b>Add 7/29: </b>To clarify why seems so compelling: the sources seem intent on blaming Russia or sowing distractions, but using some insider knowledge to do that. They alone have suggested a power interruption as the cause (others considered only damage to the cranes and, seeing that was unlikely, assumed full functioning), and they're also the only ones to suggest a linked power source on the Ukrainian side. This was useful to blame the Russians for disrupting that link, but that story fell apart. And yet the mentioned links remain possible clues, insider knowledge providing a unique and logical answer, in my opinion - that the cranes stopped moving because <b>the power source on the Ukrainian side was simply switched off.</b> </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion A Russian Attack?</span></b></p><p>Geoff Brumfiel's February NPR report said the dam operators opened the floodgates "immediately" after the Russian military's retreat-based detonation of the roadway on November 11, "deliberately ... allowing water to rush out of the reservoir." The reader gathers this was a bit of malicious vandalism against a place they were giving up on, presaging Russia's imminent defeat. It doesn't mention the Ukrainian attacks or rising water levels that preceded this drainage. "[David] Helms believes the deliberate discharge is another way for Russia to hurt Ukraine. Now that Crimea's reservoirs are full, he says, this could be a way for Russia to hamper Ukraine's economy, which depends heavily on agricultural exports." "Ukrhydroenergo, Ukraine's hydro electric company" - who might have done that flooding, and the fatal flooding next spring - "believes the discharge is being done deliberately by the Russians," Brumfiel also wrote. Was that because the Russians wanted to maximize the "success" of Kovalchuk's "test strike" by raising the Dnipro? </p><p>Brumfiel: "The result has been startling ... the reservoir's water level has plummeted to its lowest level in 30 years of satellite observation."</p><p>It could be the floodgates were frozen at 4 open and a few leaking - maybe from mid-November - cranes apparently immobilized so that it could do nothing but drain at just that rate, barring refills, which Ukraine of course controlled. They might have two reasons to let it drain low in February: 1) to complain how Russia drained it so low, and 2) to save up for spring water offensive that I might have described accurately in part 2, re-shaping the river to Ukraine's advantage better and more deniably than any barrage of HIMARS rockets could do.</p><p>Over the spring, David Helms and his sort would complain the Russians were again draining too much from the reservoir, and also not draining enough, letting it gow dangerously full. I've suggested the Russians increased their output in December to February to make room for anticipated spring flooding, once the dam and some related "safety valves" were deactivated, mostly in November,. And I've suggested they worked to increase the flow even more in March to June, trying to stave off the disaster. <b>But it might be they did and <i>could do</i> nothing either way but let Ukraine pour in what it did and let those 4 floodgates keep pouring out what they could. </b></p><div><b>revisiting what was plugged: </b>In the last post I considered safety water release valves at the dam that were wrecked, jammed up, or otherwise deactivated in the months before the spring flood season / Ukrainian river offensive. In general, these are caused by violence that is "contested." Ukraine blames Russia for wrecking its own water-management capabilities with false-flag rocket attacks, as the Russian managers blame Ukrainian rocket attacks - just as alleged! </div><p><b>Shipping lock:</b> Several proudly admitted Ukrainian HIMARS rockets hit the bridge over the lock in late August, killing and wounding Russian soldiers as they crossed it. The bridge was so damaged it had to be replaced, in haste, with a new bridge supported by rubble that filled the lock, preventing water from escaping, by mid-late September at the latest. </p><p><b>HPP: </b>Sometime prior to a report of November 12: "numerous attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine" somehow made it so the hydroelectric plant was disabled, and would only be operable again "within a year." Water discharge from the plant is visible on Oct. 28, unclear on November 2 and seemingly absent from November 5 forward. </p><p><b>Add July 1: </b>By May 5, there were already fears the dam could collapse from overloading, that were just then mitigated by a floodgate of the power plant being opened. </p><p><a href="https://news.yahoo.com/engineers-reduce-risk-dam-bursting-224936824.html">Reuters, May 5</a>: "Renat Karchaa, an adviser to the general director of energy engineering firm Rosenergoatom, said specialists had begun discharging water from the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, according to TASS. "A gate of the Kakhovka hydropower plant has been opened and repair works have begun at the Kakhovka canal. Pumps and pipes are being repaired. Water is being discharged. The risks of flooding have reduced considerably." The risk would be eliminated once water levels returned to normal, Karchaa said." That never happened, of course.</p><p>"He had earlier told TASS that a possible breach of the dam owing to high water levels could flood the cable line for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant further east and cause nuclear safety risks. Nearby towns could also be affected."</p><p>Checking satellite views, planet Labs May 3 seems to show muted discharge from the NW gates, but not jetting out, and maybe rolling towards the divider. Sentinel Hub may show the same on 4/24, 5/4, 5/6, but not on 5/19 or after. Sporadic lighter flow may appear back at least to March, but it changes in late April, and on 5/6 there seems to be a longer trail of proper flow, perhaps confirming Karchaa. Drone videos seem to show medium flow on 4/28, but weak to absent on 5/11. Was that floodagte closed again? Even when something went right, it somehow couldn't last.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIXMD7YCjtlKbNhc2WQT14gO9zJG39cE7tRpyGtY_HljO2oioi982CEccsE4KBMlYUTjN5JV3uoMaxWKSEEsObOI4VDJUmEGcmhiTxkzPeMkJmmlvuzt_tfBw7zVLPH0pC8okd3JytDWdetSbIR0UP9qPWz-saAgVeovEyVcwb2tIJZsuyju1tUp25bR5-/s891/NK_Dam_HPP_May.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="891" height="574" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIXMD7YCjtlKbNhc2WQT14gO9zJG39cE7tRpyGtY_HljO2oioi982CEccsE4KBMlYUTjN5JV3uoMaxWKSEEsObOI4VDJUmEGcmhiTxkzPeMkJmmlvuzt_tfBw7zVLPH0pC8okd3JytDWdetSbIR0UP9qPWz-saAgVeovEyVcwb2tIJZsuyju1tUp25bR5-/w640-h574/NK_Dam_HPP_May.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>Pumping stations that feed into the canal system. </b><a href="https://twitter.com/BruckenRuski/status/1670209163295694848">A short video on Twitter</a> shows four of them, as did something else I saw. In my last post, I had the pumping stations mixed up. It's the further one at Liubymivka that was damaged in shelling during November, with a related Nov. 30 disaster that left the basement flooded and the plant inoperable. This fed canals to areas to the southeast - Melitopol, etc. (<a href="https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3625907-base-pump-station-within-kakhovka-main-canal-flooded-due-to-enemy-shelling-khlan.html">https://www.ukrinform.</a> - <a href="https://investigator.org.ua/ua/publication/249278/?fbclid=IwAR2GaGLw7eCht8CXm1iohXBtTE78DD9vXUpqdmmzjrjPJBLGfDgUXJ1_vU8">https://investigator.org.ua</a>) Where the shelling came from is the Russians, as these sources report, but the Russians occupying the site prevent an investigation, so it may be hard to tell the weapon and firing direction and such. The Russians occupying the plant blame Ukrainian shelling for all the damage, but I haven't seen their evidence. Visual: hard to say from the few photos shared in the links above. Some main pipes appear hit on the west side, so not from the east. Some windows blown out on the south side, I guess, could be from nearby shells arriving any direction. Anyway, this plant was unable to help relieve the pressure Ukraine would later pour on the reservoir.</p><p>There's a northern "Zaporizhzhia canal" I didn't see much about and that seems minor. And there's one also on the Ukrainian side - "Kryvyi Rih, water lift no. 1." On September 15 and November 3 last year, Russia was accused of shelling a dam and a "water infrastructure facility" in or near Kryvyi Rih. It's not clear if either means the relevant pumping station, or what it did or could do to help lessen the burden on the reservoir in the spring. (9/15 <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/15/europe/russia-ukraine-kryvyi-rih-dam-strike-intl/index.html">CNN</a> - 11/3 <a href="https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-03-22/h_c560493cae9327533b9a3a16680be44d">CNN</a>)</p><p>Finally, <b>the southern station closest to the dam at Tavri'isk is apparently the main canal to Crimea, and was maybe operating the whole time. </b>Possibly related claims: <a href="https://twitter.com/busnitized/status/1628794891072417792">Feb 23</a>: in #Tavriisk, a water pumping station was damaged by a mortar strike." March 3 - shelling of the city of Tavriisk and a "pumping station" or "a city water intake" suffered unspecified damage. (<a href="https://ria.ru/20230302/obstrel-1855477276.html">https://ria.ru/20230302/obstrel-1855477276.html</a> - <a href="https://t.me/VGA_NovayaKahovka/10400">https://t.me/VGA_NovayaKahovka/10400</a> - <a href="https://t.me/newkaxovka/2429">https://t.me/newkaxovka/2429</a>) <a href="https://t.me/newkaxovka/2481">March 7</a>: Water supply restored in Tavriysk <a href="https://vk.com/wall-212093642_4591?lang=en">April 21</a>: March 3 damage still being repaired. </p><p>More shelling of Tavriisk was reported in May and June, but with no clear word I saw, even in the above, about the canal pumping station. So maybe it worked and the operators could drain the reservoir this way, but according to Helms, <b>the reservoirs to the south were all "topped off" by early February </b>(NPR, <a href="https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1619757662350229506">tweet</a>), If so, they couldn't be of much help anyways in the terrible rise came entirely after this. They could be overflooded to help some. As far as I know, they were. I might check if Helms noticed that and complained about the boundless Russian greed this showed...</p><p>A graphic for all this doesn't seem urgent. I'll finish it later. </p><div>Otherwise, what the dam operators ("the Russians" or "occupiers") had left to mitigate the coming disaster was those four frontline floodgates, that perhaps could not be adjusted. They would let water run constantly from just a few spots, as the remaining, closed floodgates - on top of everything else that was made to fail - ensured that was all that could escape, that the filling rate would reach 100% full by May 8 and maintain it for one month. And this was the scene already by April 28 (from combined frames in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XNV9QfHm54&t=20s">this video</a>): </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2J0F5NQ8CAT8NNeN2chVWwsxXtSxrJorBNugZf4rEl8Gg5D9jmf90bW2S16-skHNl3UkbRS4gae54kJt-V01tU_trra8dCWYXA-QxjVj1ZBPMFSR9uS4mqLzr6v_PKaB5R61uWigQ5pWeoHv-yoqqQxF4wAcROBvIu58JC02saiSAkiEk3du-1gV-vvAv/s1814/Screenshot%20(4777).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1164" data-original-width="1814" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2J0F5NQ8CAT8NNeN2chVWwsxXtSxrJorBNugZf4rEl8Gg5D9jmf90bW2S16-skHNl3UkbRS4gae54kJt-V01tU_trra8dCWYXA-QxjVj1ZBPMFSR9uS4mqLzr6v_PKaB5R61uWigQ5pWeoHv-yoqqQxF4wAcROBvIu58JC02saiSAkiEk3du-1gV-vvAv/w640-h410/Screenshot%20(4777).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Gates 3, 5, 6 and 7 are still visibly sucking in water (5 perhaps less than the others) and mindlessly pouring it out the other side. The frothy discharge angles strangely towards the concrete flow guide or divider between the outflows for the floodgates and the power plant. On the right, an end piece of this divider has come loose at an angle, sometime since March 3, and the whole thing appears to tilt a bit towards the camera, as it has lost supports on this side. Then on June 1 or 2 supports for the curved roadway also collapsed, so they vanished into the river along with the road. This seems like severe erosion dangerously close to the dam - but erosion in what and how - is an important compound question best put in another post.</p><p>Important add 7/29: by the October 18 image and common sense, the usual practice was to use alternating floodgates, not adjacent ones, probably to minimize erosion: then six gates were used, being 5,7,9 and 13,15,17 - skipping the even ones. The frozen position of 2023 with 3 adjacent gates used (5,6,7) was especially problematic once it was frozen in place for months on end.</p></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-41295256699665951892023-06-21T08:18:00.031-07:002023-07-11T07:08:49.006-07:00Did Ukraine Break the Dnipro River and the Nova Kakhovka Dam?<p><b>June 21, 2023</b></p><p><b>(rough, incomplete, updates likely)</b></p><p><b>(a lot of minor edits June 22, adds 6/24, 6/25, 7/10)</b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Introduction</span></b></p><p>My last post - <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/06/what-caused-collapse-of-nova-kakhovka.html">What Caused the Collapse of the Nova Kakhovka Dam?</a> - noted how, in its final weeks, the dam was dealing with far more water than it should have been. I wondered if the Ukrainians had deliberately tried to destroy the dam by flooding it with insane output from the dams they controlled upstream. Having looked into this, I'm now far more inclined to suspect over-release and erosion were key factors in the disaster, and that it was the result of such a plot, and not from anyone's attack with a bomb or missile. </p><p>This detailed infographic shows much of what I'll explain below with some data put in some context. Six hydroelectric dams control the flow of the River Dnieper (Dnipro), and with this control could even weaponize it, as Russia has been accused of doing and as it seems Ukraine just did. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbJrPGvj1cwqJMBE1tg9RGZiAyyb-aOFTtWTtXoBm1-Lf5F__x2IcreIZ9vxmCWajWjNothLdZIB7B3KLS1XIgZYujkwFxYFkeIGpJ7MPMAoBMJhffqGiwBah1h4EiBfbzyW9hOM2ef6zHuQN-SlpQqazUcAJ3TucyWD954q5dVE9UR4pC32FaxFoJ9S1G/s1276/Dams_map.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1276" data-original-width="1062" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbJrPGvj1cwqJMBE1tg9RGZiAyyb-aOFTtWTtXoBm1-Lf5F__x2IcreIZ9vxmCWajWjNothLdZIB7B3KLS1XIgZYujkwFxYFkeIGpJ7MPMAoBMJhffqGiwBah1h4EiBfbzyW9hOM2ef6zHuQN-SlpQqazUcAJ3TucyWD954q5dVE9UR4pC32FaxFoJ9S1G/w532-h640/Dams_map.png" width="532" /></a></div><p></p><p>Put another way but more basic, on a slide David Helms used in his Twitter thread:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkcH8UTT_hIzLE-tjbruDrWmylRPTaeGfT14kqA2JOP4-9k_f2YdHSP7L44BZeCByh2OQOMid3ncpf3s4n2PaxcfXFFp_Dq-7xIvouiFfMySkNCGO-eeRLuCsvwSTO5TleQ2ewrORwlC-a2eItD2LGhmlHITIDrAv8WMXiakYquXRGA0fTng3pzR0xWwZL/s815/Screenshot%20(4730).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="564" data-original-width="815" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkcH8UTT_hIzLE-tjbruDrWmylRPTaeGfT14kqA2JOP4-9k_f2YdHSP7L44BZeCByh2OQOMid3ncpf3s4n2PaxcfXFFp_Dq-7xIvouiFfMySkNCGO-eeRLuCsvwSTO5TleQ2ewrORwlC-a2eItD2LGhmlHITIDrAv8WMXiakYquXRGA0fTng3pzR0xWwZL/w640-h442/Screenshot%20(4730).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>My analysis will start with Lake Kakhovka and then go downstream to prove the overload at the south end. Then we'll move on to where all that water came from - the Ukrainian-operated dams upstream. Just which dams held, accepted, or passed on what amounts of water is not all clear, partly due to<b> widespread missing entries at the most crucial times. </b>But the available data generally suggests<b> they all passed on any new excess they took in April-May, along with a bit off the top (generally about 0.2m) from what they had in late March, all of which accumulated at Lake Kakhovka, filling it up even as it flooded the downstream <i>trying to prevent that</i>. </b></p><p>The sequence of events I propose COULD hypothetically result from natural mistakes in flood management culminating in tragedy. And it COULD just get passed off that way if the issue is ever acknowledged. But I doubt that this all came about by accident or, as the Ukrainians claim with the UTMOST CLEVERNESS, did it result from the Russians' own mindless and self-destructive brutality.</p><p>Reference:</p><p>Dams in the "Dnipro Cascade" system (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnieper_reservoir_cascade">Wikipedia</a>), all hydroelectric power plants (HPP) listed north to south: Kyiv HPP - Kaniv HPP - Kremenchuk HPP - Kamianske HPP - Dnipro HPP (at Zaporizhzhia) - Nova Kakhovka HPP. The last was of course operated by the Russians, and the others are all Ukrainian-operated. As I gather, the two big lakes at Kremenchuk and Nova Kakhovka each - usually - contain close to half the water in the system, while the other three just carry a minor portion divided. </p><p>Data source: <a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/?lang=en&basin=DNIEPR">Hydroweb (theia-land.fr)</a> - the same one everyone's been citing as the definitive measure of water levels at Lake Kakhovka. There are Hydroweb virtual stations on the Kremenchuk & Kakhovka reservoirs, some on the river upstream from them, and others at or near the mouths of rivers opening into the reservoirs, which should read at about the same level. You don't get a straightforward reading of how much water comes in or goes out, other than by comparing levels; one gallon less than before can mean nothing came in and a gallon was sent out, or it could be that 100 gallons came in and 101 were passed on. And the times in between readings are broad - at best every ten days, most of them every 28 days, and in most cases under study, again, <b>whole months worth of data is missing at the key times</b>, complicating my task here.</p><p>NAFO "fella" and professional meteorologist David Helms authored <a href="https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1668349432436252691">a Twitter thread</a> refuting Mikael Valtersson (or "Vatnikersson") with some useful info and misleading interpretation. He did this, as all NAFO "fellas" do everything, to maximize the return on his donations to a Georgian mercenary death squad (NAFO dues go - when they go where they're SUPPOSED TO - to the Georgian Legion. Last I heard, they were sworn to illegally execute every Russian POW they take). I'll cite "Helms" below and reply occasionally. If it's not otherwise cited, it's from this thread.</p><div><b>The River's Heavy Load</b></div><div><br /></div><div>One bit I learned from David Helm's thread: heavy rains in April. "Past two weeks accumulated precipitation (11-23 April) indicates 20-30 mm of rainfall" There were indeed widespread flood warnings and some flooding in parts of Ukraine in those days. It was expected to peak on April 22 and perhaps did. Some reports are below, and note there were also heavy rains at least in late May, leading to <a href="https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1662948251971072003">May 28</a> flooding in Dnipro city. All of this would flow into the Dnieper River, the last fairly close to the Kahkovka reservoir in the last, fateful days before it drained away.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzdBCO9NH3jEUwGJQ-0aPdsOMPHHdICiGC5YzhXVhGPloKiP_ghQhIPlP5C4p14MhoLVdBNn2JX7YEijdNeuWJg0k8wkjhPusnIHOPFJOL5K8KuOqyo-58cpMDJ2tHx1ySy-rnANLyNa1n526e9CPOhGhEqgAPsgrL6AC9ctZUOAsyY773bNg3QObfa9WD/s900/Belarus_Flood_2.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="900" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzdBCO9NH3jEUwGJQ-0aPdsOMPHHdICiGC5YzhXVhGPloKiP_ghQhIPlP5C4p14MhoLVdBNn2JX7YEijdNeuWJg0k8wkjhPusnIHOPFJOL5K8KuOqyo-58cpMDJ2tHx1ySy-rnANLyNa1n526e9CPOhGhEqgAPsgrL6AC9ctZUOAsyY773bNg3QObfa9WD/w400-h300/Belarus_Flood_2.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div>But here's another bit few know about, and that I don't know<i> enough</i> about. April 10 reports: "In Belarus near Gomel, near the border with Ukraine, due to heavy rains and rivers overflowing their banks, a dam broke through: several settlements are under water." (<a href="https://twitter.com/DmytroSolenko/status/1645433690653175811">Dmitry Solenko on Twitter</a> - photo source) "A dam has "failed" near Zhlobin, Gomel Region, Belarus. <b>The impacts of the flood will eventually reach the Dnipro River entering Ukraine near Chornobyl moving southward towards Kyiv and eventually through to the Black Sea." </b>(<a href="https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1645378132969500676">OSINT Uri on Twitter</a>) Eventually - if it even existed - this flood would reach the Black Sea, but there were some twists on the way, and it would carry houses, pets and debris in the end. What a convenient turn for anyone's potential flooding plan. </div><div><br /></div><div>Follow-up discussion notes a lack of sources, info, or dams near Zhlobin. <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/search/+%C5%BDlobin/@52.784437,29.2272277,111013m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1?entry=ttu">Žlobin on Google Maps</a> - some 200km north of the Kyiv HPP reservoir. I only found <a href="https://belkagomel.by/2023/04/07/monastyrek-v-gomele-poplyl-mozhno-li-bylo-uderzhat-reku/">an April 7 report</a> with likely a different episode of flooding in some other town(s) somewhere on the Sozh River - a Dnieper tributary - where a poorly-managed "dam made of sand" had collapsed. "By April 7, the water in Sozhe had risen above the dangerous level by 108 centimeters." Only minor, shoe-deep flooding is shown in some streets and yards. </div><div><br /></div><div>The cause and effect is also unclear in this case, or these cases - did a sizeable reservoir drain into the river, or did the river just swell with rain and actually drain some of it into these areas, lessening the burden bound for Ukraine? Whatever sized starter flood "impact" ... it would over the following days come down the Dnieper across the Ukrainian border near Chernihiv. (FWIW It doesn't pass the Chernobyl plant - that's a different river merging with the Dnieper further south.) This and heavy rainfall on Ukraine would combine to seriously raise levels all along the river. </div><div><p>It's probably wise and normal to spread the load evenly in such a case, to keep any one dam from being maxxed out or any one area from flooding. But as we'll see,<b> the rise was artificially concentrated southward to bear on the Russian-occupied Nova Kakhovka dam.</b> Probably with full and criminal intent, but possibly by some terrible series of mistakes, it seems <b style="background-color: #ffd966;">the Ukrainians <i>broke the river</i> and the dam just had to follow suit.</b> </p></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Nova Kakhovka Reservoir/Lake Kakhovka</span></b></p><p>As I gather, this expansive but not terribly deep lake normally holds close to half the water in the Dnipro reservoir system. At the end, I'd say it held ... way over half, anyway. </p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/L_kakhovka?lang=en">Lake Kakhovka</a> page on Hydroweb: water level normal range: 15.5-16.5m year-round, max. allowed 17m once, briefly. In 2023, levels fell to a bizarre 14.06m on Feb. 10 - then at an alarming speed, levels rose to 14.84m March 31, 15.5 by 4/11, and passing the normal range to 16.8m by April 25, then to a dreaded 17.5m by May 8. Here it's 100% full and stays about the same until the end, one month later. A slightly lower level of 17.36m is maintained, aside from a spike 17.54 on May 20, and it's even lowered to 17.26 at the end, on June 4. <b> </b>(The sharp drop after the dam collapsed is considered below. It got weird later)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhljutbj8TbWKcqdrXc6041ppD2MAG2JOZovWk2cE79HX3JPOUAqHnVx5nRXJ5jy3Nech0VA9-4EWj2FkMEY-7sktA-QmDgAa_4x8KBrSPpLqVESVQndMA880kPvaf9A8EaHgJCah_mGX-XEb129UhQovO_6WfQBCY9r3gHSFOWjGi1Cqwr-Sfacde7bbim/s1345/Screenshot%20(4738).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1345" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhljutbj8TbWKcqdrXc6041ppD2MAG2JOZovWk2cE79HX3JPOUAqHnVx5nRXJ5jy3Nech0VA9-4EWj2FkMEY-7sktA-QmDgAa_4x8KBrSPpLqVESVQndMA880kPvaf9A8EaHgJCah_mGX-XEb129UhQovO_6WfQBCY9r3gHSFOWjGi1Cqwr-Sfacde7bbim/w640-h378/Screenshot%20(4738).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>That's increased output at the end, but mainly - by dipping BELOW the max so we can see some small changes - this shows <b>a rough parity between input and output for that whole month. And as I'll show, output was very high. That means <i>input</i> was very high, and we really should ask WHY, </b>considering how disastrous that was getting. <b>This situation didn't develop suddenly; people - notably at Dnipro HPP - had time to realize the danger and to keep adding to it anyway. </b></p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_KINS-KA_KM0320?lang=en">KM0320</a>: R. Kins-ka: this station is about 8km from the reservoir (Coord: 35.384, 47.7004 (lon, lat) ), not the visibly swollen stretch but still levels should be similar to the reservoir. Normal range: 16-19m. It rises to 16.6m between March 9 and April 5, then a missing entry in early May, and then 17.36 on May 29 = ^0.76m 4/5-5/29. That's still within norms here, but the trend clearly reflects the swelling reservoir, which was never a secret anyway. </p><p><b>"Missed Opportunities" to Drain the Lake Kakhovka</b></p><p>So that was a sorely overfilled reservoir, as some astute people noticed at the time. David Helms noticed it. As he would later complain in his post-collapse thread, the Russians could have released more of that water, lessening the danger, but they blew every chance in a criminally negligent manner. "RF missed opportunities to divert water from Kakhovka Reservoir through: Kherson & Zaporizhzhia Irrigation Canals - K-HPP Lock - K-HPP Turbines - K-HPP Sluice Gates." Let's consider each of these in chronological order.</p><p>"Russian occupiers could have discharged water through the K-HPP lock, especially after the RF 11 NOV 2022 retreat, but they didn't." Why they could do this "especially" after November 11 is unclear. They built a new bridge over the lock in or by October because the Ukrainians blew up the old bridge. Made in haste, this was supported with fill that blocked the lock. (see photo: <a href="http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/File:LockCanalBlocked.jpeg">File:LockCanalBlocked.jpeg - A Closer Look On Syria (shoutwiki.com)</a>) I didn't get all the details, but the Russians could NOT use it for emergency release afterwards, thanks to Ukrainian aggression and the questionable "Russian" response that blocked one drain. Having seen that blocked drain, someone set to blocking others.</p><p>"Russian occupiers could have discharged water through Kakhovsky Main Canal," Helms complained. But they didn't do that, he thinks, because they wanted the maximum possible volume of water there. But they didn't just refuse to pump the water or switch the station off. No, "in November 2022, the Russian occupiers bombed and flooded the KMC main pumping station creating "a disaster". Dec. 1: <a href="https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3625907-base-pump-station-within-kakhovka-main-canal-flooded-due-to-enemy-shelling-khlan.html">Base pump station within Kakhovka Main Canal flooded due to enemy shelling – Khlan (ukrinform.net)</a> </p><p>Obviously, they would blame Ukraine. Nov 12: <b>after "numerous attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine" the hydroelectric plant was disabled and "other large facilities were also damaged, for example, <i>the North Crimean Canal and the Kakhovka Main Canal."</i></b> <a href="https://t.me/readovkanews/46721">https://t.me/readovkanews/46721</a> Helms was able to dismiss these claims somehow. He didn't mention if the Russians had also bombed the Crimean canal pumping station, and he didn't mention it as a "missed opportunity" either. That too would have been a useful safety valve. It's upstream a ways, <a href="УГКМК Управління Головного Каховського магістрального каналу">here on Google Maps</a>, and I recently saw images of it, from Helms or whoever, damaged in another attack that's obviously disputed. </p><p>Previously Oct 24, following UAF strike w/HIMARS, "an active discharge of water is currently going on through the canal system to protect Kherson in case of flooding when the locks of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station are blown up." (<a href="https://t.me/readovkanews/45201">https://t.me/readovkanews/45201</a>) All other methods of release would go into the river, which was overtaxed that spring. Having these alternate drains to assist, one of them helping supply Crimea, might have really helped avoid disaster. It's probably thanks to Ukraine these two release valves were deactivated - at least one of them AFTER the lock was plugged up and just about as the dam got deactivated. </p><p>As for the power plant's turbines, Helms says "Russian occupiers destroyed K-HPP's ability to generate electricity." Well if so, they don't admit to it. Nov 15 "Head of the occupation “administration” of the Kherson region Vladimir Saldo has told Rossiya 24 TV ... “the turbines don’t produce energy and there’s no need for it.”" He doesn't say why, but "the occupation “administration” of Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson region had fled the city due to shelling." Probably Russian shelling, huh? <a href="https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/11/15/russias-occupation-authorities-report-that-kakhovka-hydroelectric-stations-electricity-production-halted-en-news">Russia’s occupation ‘authorities’ report that Kakhovka Hydroelectric Station’s electricity production halted — Novaya Gazeta Europe</a> Nov 12 "The head of the Novokakhovka urban district, Vladimir Leontiev, said that the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station had received serious damage after numerous attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to Leontiev, it can be restored within a year." <a href="https://t.me/readovkanews/46721">https://t.me/readovkanews/46721</a></p><p>I'm not sure, but if the turbine is not operating, maybe it can't turn, and thus can't let water pass? Not a good design if so. And I'm not sure how any known attack could disable them, but I imagine there are a few direct and indirect ways the war criminals in Kyiv could, would, and did do this. This too is likely thanks to Ukraine. </p><p>Floodgates were used, and heavily, to drain the reservoir all Spring. This was because the Russians wanted ... NOT QUITE the maximum possible volume of water? It's a good idea in that case to rotate the drainage to minimize localized erosion (or so I gather). But as Helms complains "Russian occupiers stopped active water management after 1 DEC 2022 for no apparent reason," using just the same few gates constantly. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYR4eNYClIlrAcnFHkJTmuJsp86WKiPd_yRpaehgyXbyzZpC9wjq2Rs3v27USi6qMwXQu4ed2Wk2foFAQ48X60pf_B3CzMsklcF68UGkUA4OXiQN7bGJ1BQu9_cuZgVcpeRgr4vC5rnMM5PoAi0ujBbJ5PWU9mwEpXZ95Obzh5_vkUpYbx5PggHAqRJcNd/s900/NK_Dam_gate_1_damaged.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="900" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYR4eNYClIlrAcnFHkJTmuJsp86WKiPd_yRpaehgyXbyzZpC9wjq2Rs3v27USi6qMwXQu4ed2Wk2foFAQ48X60pf_B3CzMsklcF68UGkUA4OXiQN7bGJ1BQu9_cuZgVcpeRgr4vC5rnMM5PoAi0ujBbJ5PWU9mwEpXZ95Obzh5_vkUpYbx5PggHAqRJcNd/w400-h300/NK_Dam_gate_1_damaged.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div>Helms thinks they were using just the same 2, or maybe 2-3 floodgates (favoring 2, based on 2 cranes?). <a href="https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1634897188793745410">Geoff Brumfiel thinks it's 3</a> - gates 5, 6, 7. It could be 8 is closed even with a crane parked above it - maybe opened at time, but not that I've seen. Gate 1 is leaking after an apparent, direct impact from a HIMARS missile, helping to wash out the nearby supports for the roadway that collapsed on June 1 - gate 3 seems open under the other crane in some views, including this one at right. (and BTW <b>a Russian witness to the collapse says it started at damaged gate 1 and progressed from there.</b> <a href="https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1668172205518118913">Mark Krutov on Twitter</a> Initial damage is totally consistent with that.) <p></p><p>Still, as noted, that's probably too few gates for safe operation, likely causing localized erosion that - along with a heavy and high-centered water load - led to the collapse. (other, relatively minor damage from attacks maybe played a small role as well,) But noting the role of the always-half-running gate 1, it's thanks to Ukraine, and to the US government and to ME, and every US taxpayer who helped pay for that particular HIMARS rocket. </p><p>To the extent the operators shunned gate 2 and started at 3, they didn't add to that problem as much as they might have. As for why other gates weren't used: some on the far end couldn't be opened after November 11 because the Russians blew the top off the dam there. But many in the middle presumably worked (there were 28 in total). As noted in my part 1, snipers targeted the dam, perhaps the civilian plant staff, and the cranes probably required exposed workers to move and set them up. They were left in place, as it happens, the furthest they could get from the Ukrainian side. Ukrainian shelling might also play in, damaging the rails the cranes move on or otherwise complicating the process. (the HIMARS strike at gate 1 did also destroy the rails there, FWIW). Again, this is mainly thanks to Ukraine and their enablers. </p><p>Overview, aside from Crimean canal pumping station also allegedly damaged by the Russians (and "2-3 gates" is incorrect, FWIW - it seems to be 4):</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8m2XXblS8rkhQDri9V_DGseNoeV5yPuNC8oiuLXn0UwBAW5p6sMv9_ngedLgeb5SxkZQjFpdme5Z60TMaXzfJZPjVQVhYUSlqx5WJ_mlJl_yTWiyFf6FFjr1zq272yT29YOVt1JAg9jqUl3QWp_xhbzMQpnur1Z9TPd4_d_amRQOZMc2bj8Iq5y8Db1l1/s897/Screenshot%20(4746).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="757" data-original-width="897" height="540" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8m2XXblS8rkhQDri9V_DGseNoeV5yPuNC8oiuLXn0UwBAW5p6sMv9_ngedLgeb5SxkZQjFpdme5Z60TMaXzfJZPjVQVhYUSlqx5WJ_mlJl_yTWiyFf6FFjr1zq272yT29YOVt1JAg9jqUl3QWp_xhbzMQpnur1Z9TPd4_d_amRQOZMc2bj8Iq5y8Db1l1/w640-h540/Screenshot%20(4746).png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>TAKEN opportunities: Russian Occupiers Flooding Themselves (and Don't Ask Why)</b></p><p>All of that might be moot anyway. In fact, <b>the few gates used were doing fine as far as moving volume, and they were releasing about the maximum amount they safely could.</b> Whatever exits the dam operators used, there are still limits to the amount the river can deal with, and this might have been the real choke point that prevented the dam from lessening its terrible load. It's possible to pass on too much water and flood those downstream, and it seems the dam operators avoided this just barely, and maybe not at all by the end. </p><p>In the first post, I noted exceptionally high water level on the immediate downstream side of the dam. Here's a better view from June 2, cropped on the area of interest: (full image: <a href="http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/File:Kakhovkabefore1.jpg">File:Kakhovkabefore1.jpg - A Closer Look On Syria (shoutwiki.com)</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbRZ4Khb5sU5twIz7UD_5qcTCSnhvUlumtEHHaPByiv9nc8Kk-tAxwew-WhzRHQQsd_nOs7lSfCNo9qXyGwcZ5sn2o9Uesd_Ba5cseB3yViWiNdLhTJaJvXrTZU1ayqcdLl7AGgPWuZv-sDtzqSFY2JhUK3jTft7_KfpgvBXk4vaDauI42SSiojnElmA/s1084/NK_Dam_June_2_crop.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="1084" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbRZ4Khb5sU5twIz7UD_5qcTCSnhvUlumtEHHaPByiv9nc8Kk-tAxwew-WhzRHQQsd_nOs7lSfCNo9qXyGwcZ5sn2o9Uesd_Ba5cseB3yViWiNdLhTJaJvXrTZU1ayqcdLl7AGgPWuZv-sDtzqSFY2JhUK3jTft7_KfpgvBXk4vaDauI42SSiojnElmA/w640-h384/NK_Dam_June_2_crop.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>The three little islands I noted and even most of their trees are submerged - the last few trees are visible just right of center. The higher coastlines with houses we see, on the higher north bank, are just threatened here. Parts of the south bank (Russian-held) here or downstream might already be flooded. New water is piling on top of this, spreading out, still raising the level moment-by-moment. <b>And the reservoir is still splashing over 100% full. </b></p><p>What, are the Russians trying to flood out Kherson here? The vicious war criminals! And reckless! Releasing this much water, and so narrowly, they might have eventually washed out supports for the dam. The occupying "orcs" released way too much water for their own and everyone's good! </p><p>Ukraine's version of "vatniks" seriously said just about this. <a href="https://investigator.org.ua/ua/news-2/254655/">Investigator.org.ua, May 16</a>: "Despite the statements of Gauleiter Vladimir Saldo, an uncontrolled discharge of water continues at the station, as a result of which <b>the coast of Nova Kakhovka is flooded and the military positions of the occupiers are flooded.</b> ...The video filmed on May 11, 2023, shows that powerful streams of water flow uncontrollably through the open and<b> partially destroyed by the invaders </b>of the [floodgates] of the Kakhovka HPP. <span style="background-color: #f1c232;">You can also see </span><b><span style="background-color: #f1c232;">the elevated water level in the Dnieper <i>and</i> the flooded coast in Nova Kakhovka."</span> (emphasis mine) </b>They say video supports Ukrainian media reports "of flooding on the left bank of the Dnieper," which had been denied by Russian-aligned officials. It probably does. Now what does the highlighted part show? Add 6/24: They also report how <b>one Russian soldier died, drowned in a swiftly flooded dugout,</b> and also note "At the same time, the water level in the Kakhovka reservoir decreased<i> slightly</i>. ... "</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1658916322112151593">CIT May 17</a>: <b>"In the lower reaches of the Dnipro, a flood caused by a damage to a hydroelectric dam flooded Russian trenches." </b>lol.</p><p>David helms noted these rising levels and was only concerned with military opportunities for Ukraine. <a href="https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1659637542289809410">May 19</a>: "The lower Dnipro downstream of the #KakhovkaHPP is running at peak water level (about 1 meter above average). Landing spots ordinarily accessible will be flooded while other locations usually unreachable may be accessible."</p><p>So<b> the Russians released way too much water and were flooding stuff. </b>Also, as Helms was just fuming, <b>the Russians didn't release nearly enough water. </b><a href="https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1651926060550766592">4/28</a>: "2-3 K-HPP sluice gates are open, releasing too much water in fall dry season, <i>not enough in spring wet season</i>." Everybody knew the reservoir was dangerously overfilled, and this was why. Those dastardly villains! How could they manage to release way too much water AND not enough water? That's just the depth of their evil, I guess? And how could they even acquire so much water with which to wreak this mindless havoc? We'll come back to that.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Hydroweb: downstream station in excess</span></b></p><p>Here, the river is usually no deeper than 0.5m or 0.6m, but we can see essentially flood levels reached well before the final dam collapse on June 6, in line with the boastful pro-Ukrainian reports at the time.</p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0089?lang=en">KM089</a> - about 4-5 km from the dam. usual high 0.5m. This level was reached by Jan. 30. With increased output, a deep 0.85m was reached by Feb. 26. About the same was reported March 25, then it was 1.32m on April 21, and finally 1.73m by May 18. That's a rise of 0.88m is less than 2 months - the river here got 3.5 times as deep as usual well before the dam ever gave way. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjQDLaOV5j3AvLKLHHJPvLE6I5qnlb3gyUbxzfVeJoAw8NvZRBFEwfrlYN6hyOBpp0kf7JTZZpEdjRvE9z_2PkAa_LbZbMae7YJGst6DzveJgR5ALvhk-x363hsLRIUIN6_Xis1_lMXwjZvTDQI-aobXfBiUkn6q04FwfWvYy05BI-BjKXmxcca1FT_fb4/s1367/Screenshot%20(4716).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1367" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjQDLaOV5j3AvLKLHHJPvLE6I5qnlb3gyUbxzfVeJoAw8NvZRBFEwfrlYN6hyOBpp0kf7JTZZpEdjRvE9z_2PkAa_LbZbMae7YJGst6DzveJgR5ALvhk-x363hsLRIUIN6_Xis1_lMXwjZvTDQI-aobXfBiUkn6q04FwfWvYy05BI-BjKXmxcca1FT_fb4/w640-h352/Screenshot%20(4716).png" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0076?lang=en">KM076</a> a few kilometers down, the river narrows and gets a little deeper: normal high here is about 1 meter. 0.91m was reached by March 24, and 1m by April 3. (readings every 10 days here) On 4/13 it was 1.18m, on 4/23 1.3m, on 5/3 1.5m, and 5/13 1.59m, Then on 5/23 it was down a bit to 1.54, and back up to 1.6m on June 2. Level rises 0.7m from 3/24 to 6/2. </p><p>An abnormal rises to about the same level was also recorded last May, and in December, with unusually low dips in between - all after the Russians took over, for what it's worth. KM089 has less resolution, but also shows a sustained high level last spring. The reservoir stayed within normal range then, and this might be why. I don't know if anything was up with that, or in December except - isn't December about when the reservoir got all empty? I think the Russians did THAT on purpose, sensing the spring water offensive to come, once all those escape valves were disabled in October-November, and maybe seeing high water input already starting.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnXmeDDvEyHCGYgBYDH7dj2cpFAmpDcNmuchX81PCFLrr-CKdHDSunMu9_Umev_Z918PdHBj8FJZ5iElkvfQpD79bIy0bkFhqWKvdlcTIbh8oGrf2x2x4V5J2e-mOW9nlasM8m1Ug7HKNsZeS1Tr0AnYlz-zfoqpr6i5DaL2t6KEHtbWfxuGZ7uk7WTcRO/s1395/Screenshot%20(4717).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="748" data-original-width="1395" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnXmeDDvEyHCGYgBYDH7dj2cpFAmpDcNmuchX81PCFLrr-CKdHDSunMu9_Umev_Z918PdHBj8FJZ5iElkvfQpD79bIy0bkFhqWKvdlcTIbh8oGrf2x2x4V5J2e-mOW9nlasM8m1Ug7HKNsZeS1Tr0AnYlz-zfoqpr6i5DaL2t6KEHtbWfxuGZ7uk7WTcRO/w640-h344/Screenshot%20(4717).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0062?lang=en">KM062</a> further downstream: normal high 0.7m. On March 24 it was still just 0.5m, but reached 0.7m by April 20, and by May 17 it's 1.11m = 0.61m rise from 3/24 to 5/17 (last pre-collapse reading).</p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0046?lang=en">KM046</a> normal high 0.5m, reached by March 11. On April 7 it was just a bit higher, 0.45m. By May 4 it was nearly double the normal high at to 0.95, then down a bit to 0.9 on 5/31 - median 9.25 at end = ^0.425m from 3/11 to 5/31.</p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_INGULETS_KM0053?lang=en">KM053 River Ingulets</a> with its own flow but where it empties into the Dnieper ... normal level: ~0m to 0.58m. The Ingulets would later be flooded backwards from the Dneiper, and we probably see a bit of that already in May. It was at 0.36m on March 11 (a small decrease from February), then way up to 0.62 on 4/7 and 0.95m on May 4. Just as with the above (KM046), April to May rose a bit faster - as with above, early to late May saw a slight decline to 0.88m on the 31st (last pre-collapse reading). May median = 0.92m - rise from March to May: 0.56m.</p><p>On balance, it seems this stretch of the river rose at least 0.6m in these 2 months, and likely higher yet in the first days of June (KM098 seems to show this beginning). This is clearly because the Russian dam operators were pumping out an abnormally large amount of water, as all other evidence already suggested. </p><p>This rise is fairly close to levels that debatably require mass evacuation. When dam worries surfaced last October, "Acting Governor of the Kherson Region Vladimir Saldo said "Wherever serious flooding is possible, the water will rise by one meter, according to calculations. We really should help people to leave the region faster." (<a href="https://tass.com/politics/1524627">TASS</a>) There was probably worry over the panic this might cause, and the next day Kherson Region’s deputy governor, Kirill Stremousov (who would later be killed in a likely Ukrainian rocket strike) said: "Even if the Khakhovka dam is hit, the water level will rise by one meter, one and a half meters at the most. .... A critical situation is ruled out," he said on Russia’s TV Channel One. (<a href="https://tass.com/politics/1525319">TASS</a>) Of course things had changed by May and June of this year so that a full collapse seemed possible. The recorded rises were acceptable for weeks on end, reportedly did cause harmful flooding by mid-May, and yet the reservoir remained almost 100% full. </p><p>So this might show the Russians filling the dam until it broke, or just filling it to maximize the damage from their quiet bombing of the dam, and then ... maybe trying to minimize the damage at the last minute. Well, trying to minimize it by quite a bit, over the last 2 months ... Sure, maybe. </p><p>But where did they manage to get all that water in the first place? Upstream, obviously. But Ukraine controls the upstream dams, and surely they wouldn't want to be the water carriers, as they say, for this Russian plot or blunder. Well it seems that, somehow, they were tricked into sending the Russians just the weapon they needed to unleash devastation on Ukraine and on themselves, to Ukraine's <strike>ultimate</strike> immediate and immense (military) advantage.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Upstream Stations <i>in Decline</i></span></b></p><p>I was starting at Kyiv HPP because there's no dam further upstream that isn't in Belarus ... but then, I learned of that reported flood from a dam "failures" in Belarus. Then I didn't pin down any facts there anyway, so ... whatever excess the river held before it hit the Ukraine border, all these stations would handle that plus the rains they gather from tributaries in their stretch, and anything else the dams upstream send their way. And that sounds like it should add up to a significant amount. </p><p>April 15 "In #Kyiv, photos are published from both banks of the #Dnipro River. In total, about 500 households in #Ukraine are flooded. The State Emergency Service reports a seasonal rise in water levels in 6 rivers. The situation is currently under control." <a href="https://twitter.com/Geoff_WarNews/status/1647232587906072576">https://twitter.com/Geoff_WarNews/status/1647232587906072576</a></p><p>April 18 photos of mild flooding <a href="https://twitter.com/suspilne_news/status/1648348339019063296">https://twitter.com/suspilne_news/status/1648348339019063296</a></p><p>April 18 Donetsk, Chernihiv, Kyiv and other regions are suffering from floods this month, which are <b>expected to peak on April 22</b>. SES reported “a seasonal rise” of numerous rivers in 🇺🇦 including the Dnipro, Desna, Seym, and other rivers. <a href="https://twitter.com/tvtoront/status/1648352835573018625">https://twitter.com/tvtoront/status/1648352835573018625</a></p><p>We should see every dam pitching in to help contain this, with a clear but safe rise in levels after mid-April. But somewhere near Kyiv: <a href="https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1648993613127335938">Flash News, April 20</a>: "The water level in the Dnipro River has <b>dropped by 10 centimeters</b> compared to yesterday, KCSA reports. According to the KCSA, the peak of the flood is expected on April 22." They needed to make room for that.</p><p>I'm not sure where/what reservoir this refers to, but Kyiv city is at the north end of the Kaniv reservoir. That excess was sent downstream, for the other dams to hold or pass on. More excess would come, and also probably go. No one was worried about buildup here. Flash News followed up with "the expected maximum level of water harvesting on the Dnipro within the city of Kyiv does not pose a threat to the city's industrial facilities and residential areas." </p><p>The danger would be transported south by the Ukrainian-operated dams and concentrated in one spot, possibly by some series of mistakes, or deliberately playing a massive shell game with weaponized water. But it's not such a clear picture as the dire one downstream, largely from<b> about half the relevant reports failing to appear. </b>Whole months pass without even the usual periodic update, where moves in such a criminal game could pass without even the kind of indirect view we have in other spots and other times. </p><p><b>Kyiv HPP reservoir (north of the city):</b></p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNEPR_KM0995?lang=en">KM0995</a> (on the Dnipro at the north end of Kyiv HPP reservoir): entries every 4 weeks to Jan. 12 at 103.19m (sharp rise from 12/16, 102.47), then I think <b>4 missing entries (Feb, Mar, Apr, early May)</b> before a May27 entry shows a net gain to 103.49. That's a net rise 0.3m 1/12-5/27 BUT It's not remotely clear how much of the April deluge was retained vs. just passed through even between the reported dates, let alone over the crucial <i>months</i> of data we can't see. Coordinates: 30.5631, 51.2564 (lon, lat)</p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_TETERIV_KM0981?lang=en">KM0981</a> River Teteriv, ~6km from the reservoir, likely to reflect its level somewhat - normal range 102.3-103.5m. Entries came every 10 days up to January, with a sharp rise from December, then <b>between 1/1 and 4/20 there's no data</b> (10 missing entries) but a net rise of 0.66m. 4/20 103.5, 4/30 103.72, 5/10 103.67 and <b>3 missing entries since</b> (5/20, 5/30, 6/9). 6/19 has a reading of 103.46m - back to nromal range, down 0.26m between peak on April 30 and June 19. Total <b>13 entries missing (1/10, 1/20, 1/30, 2/9, 2/19, 3/1, 3/11, 3/21, 3/31, 4/10, 5/20, 5/30, 6/9) </b>Coord: 30.2459, 51.0406 (lon, lat) </p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_TETERIV_KM0986?lang=en">KM0986</a> same river but a bit upstream, less reflective of reservoir levels but with no missing entries. Normal range: 102.5-103.4m - that was reached by 2/21 and it rose from there - 103.48 by 3/20 and 103.51 by May 13 - 2nd highest it's been since 2019. But it falls to 103.3 on 6/9 = down 0.21 5/13-6/9. According to the above, levels stayed high until at least May 27. The drop should be after this.</p><p><b>Kaniv reservoir: </b></p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0881?lang=en">KM0881</a> south of Kyiv HPP, - reports every 4 weeks to December 31, then 2 missing for Jan/Feb before 3/22 shows 91.94m - a 0.34 rise since December. Then <b>2 entries for April and May are missing</b> before June 11 shows 91.88m with abnormally high uncertainty of 0.14. That's likely because the low end is the true one, and 91.74m would make for a 0.2m drop since March. Otherwise, that wide margin means it might be down just 0.06m or even up by 0.14m. Either way, in between these entries should have been the April rains, but these were probably passed on along with that probable bit off the top of what they had before. </p><p>As noted above, a stretch of river near Kyiv that might be part of the Kaniv reservoir shed 0.1m in a single day, April 19-20.</p><p><b>Kremenchuk HPP reservoir (Lake Kremenchutska):</b></p><p>As I gather, this usually holds close to half the water in the Dnipro cascade, with Lake Kakhovka holding most of the other half. Relevant Hydroweb stations include 2 on the Dnipro south of Kaniv HPP, one on the lake itself, and one on a side river where it joins the reservoir. Going north-to-south...</p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0741?lang=en">KM0741</a>: water level normal range: 79-82m - that whole range is covered in the dramatic rise from Dec. 12 to March 3, then it goes up to 82.48m on May 6, then down to 82.05m June 2 = 0.43m drop. Coord: 31.6901, 49.6368 (lon, lat)</p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0735?lang=en ">KM0735</a> normal levels: 79.3-81.9m. March 24: 81.71m. April 20: 82.34m. May 17: 82.17m. June 13: 81.65m = 0.69m drop between peak on April 20 and June 13. Coord: 31.7716, 49.6304 (lon, lat)</p><p>Note that rivers, even when dammed, are (or can be) more volatile and variable than a reservoir/lake. Its changes can be more rapid and drastic, so a change of 0.47 0.69 at these narrow points, might equate to just 0.2 or 0.3m change across the actual reservoir.</p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/L_kremenchutska?lang=en">Lake Kremenchutska</a> itself (direct reading) is worth dwelling on. Water level normal range: 77.6-81.53m. Highest previous peaks: ~81.6m in 1993 & 94, 81.66 in 1995 - more recent years it was kept to 81.3 and then 81, then in 2020-2022 more tolerant, rising to 81.5 at several points. So 81.5-81.6 could mean basically flood levels, or undesirable anyway. </p><p>March 22-28 is when level rise past the normal high (to 81.44m) and then tops out 1t 81.57 a few times as it took in water from upstream. But he held level drops a few times, followed by a refill: 0.24m drop on 3/31, refilled by 4/3, 0.27m decline to 4/20, refilled by 4/24 to a top level 81.57m. That's higher than normally allowed, but tolerable; it stayed close to that up to May 27, when 81.57 was again recorded. But then they just had to shed some water: <b>it was lowered to 81.35 by June 9, with a slight refill reported later the same day. That's another 0.22m sent south at the worst possible time.</b> Next update: 6/17 81.23m. Then 6/18 81.12m. That's another 0.23m off the top either during or just after the massive flooding. (there are 2 other dams in line that would have to pass this on for it to count as post-collapse flooding of Lake Kahkovka - otherwise it might be refilling those after they had drained themselves somewhere in between the publicized reports)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghdH0Hl7LRiIZk-WQ_tTA73-ts0q8lZvxuBHv2tqlBTAo6JyWX3BbGpYlOvzApD9H-KTmhg5vCWxVTEfXR4H4SGIRwMq5L29OBD5G2xB46A-8Z3ocS4j0vD01o-RJPIGOl1c4U-SISVXawH7ZZg_0ZaiQKpBe-t0XsAZoUF0rkw9ZEQ4LiPA-LuWMQnNLj/s1353/Screenshot%20(4741).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="743" data-original-width="1353" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghdH0Hl7LRiIZk-WQ_tTA73-ts0q8lZvxuBHv2tqlBTAo6JyWX3BbGpYlOvzApD9H-KTmhg5vCWxVTEfXR4H4SGIRwMq5L29OBD5G2xB46A-8Z3ocS4j0vD01o-RJPIGOl1c4U-SISVXawH7ZZg_0ZaiQKpBe-t0XsAZoUF0rkw9ZEQ4LiPA-LuWMQnNLj/w640-h352/Screenshot%20(4741).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>3/28-6/9 overall: down just 0.09m for a steady appearance. But with that flood and all those rains moving through, this half of the reservoir probably should have retained some of the load. Instead <b>they passed it all on, with a moderate 0.9m off the very wide top of the huge amount they had built up ahead of the flood season. And why was that? Did they want to force a crisis situation to ensure everyone would send the maximum water down to Dnipro HPP?</b></p><p>Lake water <i>volume</i> variation - something I didn't notice before. 1/31 to 3/22 sees a steady and pretty massive filling from 0.76km3 to 3.69km3, with reports every 10 days at most (sometimes 2 in a day). That makes sense; as it widens at the top, every cm up contains more water. Every 0.22m off the top is way more than 0.22m off the bottom or middle. And that effect grows with every increase in the level.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqUgLLrFU1o-2g0PVB2GNDnqzXrqB9T5UfwmcfpIq-JQtR_chGs9ieEVsmo5skREZlWuLp4KuoDabMNcL2hmRcgU_kqBWzvEVZtzJnBQiJPbCOnuhOPB89GJ8J_0ld6dTQFkTYC56CquYyC8qRvwEk2nes8vsLLHEWKcjh2aowyrUtkeWuNp1mcDEEEMQY/s1360/Screenshot%20(4742).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1360" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqUgLLrFU1o-2g0PVB2GNDnqzXrqB9T5UfwmcfpIq-JQtR_chGs9ieEVsmo5skREZlWuLp4KuoDabMNcL2hmRcgU_kqBWzvEVZtzJnBQiJPbCOnuhOPB89GJ8J_0ld6dTQFkTYC56CquYyC8qRvwEk2nes8vsLLHEWKcjh2aowyrUtkeWuNp1mcDEEEMQY/w640-h350/Screenshot%20(4742).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>This inflow was in preparation for the flood season? An adjustment: by March 31 it's dropped to 3.37m. With the possible Belarus flood and April rains, the volume rose just a bit, but with less views: <b>they go monthly now (28-day cycle), and they skip May. </b>Comparing April 20 at 3.53m to June 17 at 3.69km3, it seems they took on some water. But it's hard to say how much they SHOULD have taken on, and how much was passed through. Then a new 6/18 reading shows they're back to regular updates and some more water was just passed downstream (final volume 3.48km3)</p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_TIASMIN_KM0667?lang=en">KM0667 River Tiasmin</a>: alongside the lake, some lazy kilometers from entering it, likely reflecting its level mixed with the Tiasmin's own rain-swollen flow. It rises from 74.38m on February 18 to 74.65 on 4/13, faster in the 2nd half from 3/17. April 13 is roughly when the heavy rains started and flooding was reported. But the level is pretty steady by May 10 at 74.67m, but with unusually high uncertainty of 0.17m (so maybe 74.84). It was down to 74.4m on June 6 (unc. low - 0.06) = drop of 0.1m, 0.27m, or 0.44m, depending, between April 13 and June 6. This seems more like reservoir levels than a flowing river. And the level falls likely more than 0.27m sometime between May 10 to June 6. According to the above, it should be after May 27. </p><p><b>Kamianske HPP reservoir: </b></p><p>No direct readings on the Dnieper on this reservoir nor very close to it - Helms likewise shows no level here in his thread (see image below). The following is kind of a side-note on a smaller dam I found too far up a side river to matter - except it might show additional inflow engineered back in February or March - and another river I checked for comparison.</p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_VORSKLA_KM0588?lang=en">KM058 Vorskla river</a> - at <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/place/49%C2%B013'33.2%22N+34%C2%B016'48.7%22E/@49.1969711,32.8818411,119942m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d49.2259!4d34.2802?entry=ttu">49°13'33.2"N 34°16'48.7"E - Google Maps</a> over 20km north, looking a bit uphill, so not likely to reflect the reservoir level. But it's also south of a small dam with a small reservoir (just south of Poltava) - <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/place/Hes+%22Nyzhni+Mlyny%22/@49.5372071,34.5834023,116m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m12!1m5!3m4!2zNDnCsDEzJzMzLjIiTiAzNMKwMTYnNDguNyJF!8m2!3d49.2259!4d34.2802!3m5!1s0x40d82fcbe4d93dcd:0x7be27d484900c83e!8m2!3d49.5373973!4d34.5836327!16s%2Fg%2F11gfmwk5yt?entry=ttu">"Nyzhni Mlyny" HPP - Google Maps</a></p><p><b>Up 0.89m 2/20-3/19</b> - then 4/15 and 5/12 after the late-April rains, it shows a <i>drop </i>to 66.82 then to 66.01 by June 8. (5/12 66.82m, unc. 0.09 ignored - 6/8 66.01m w/big uncertainty of 0.25 = 65.76-66.26.) That makes a drop of at least 0.56 or perhaps up to 1.06m between May 12 and June 8. It was draining, perhaps, into an abnormally low reservoir. And maybe it was left dry during the rains because the emptied reservoir upstream was refilling.</p><p>For comparison: <a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_GOVTVA-GRUZ-KA_KM0692?lang=en">KM0692 River Govtva-gruz-ka</a>: high levels ~76.76 12/20-3/11, with a February entry missing - then falling (with the April rains?) - 76.39m on April 7, 76.37m on May 4, 76.11m on May 31 - down 0.26m during May - draining, perhaps, into an abnormally low reservoir. <b>There is no particular surge in March as seen above - because there was no upstream reservoir emptied into it then? </b>Coord: 33.9591, 49.4795 (lon, lat) <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/place/49%C2%B028'46.2%22N+33%C2%B057'32.8%22E/@49.2149078,33.4904591,29975m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d49.4795!4d33.9591?entry=ttu">49°28'46.2"N 33°57'32.8"E - Google Maps</a> - it's a pretty sporadic river, seeming to be about 0m deep just meters away from this little reservoir that doesn't look 77m deep or even connected the the river. But by marshes or whatever, it seems to be continuous and flows into the Dnieper (quite a ways from here).</p><p><b>Add June 25: </b><a href="https://t.me/zaes_energoatom/1795">ZAES/(Rus)Energoatom on Telegram, May 10 2023</a> speaks of water held until then, reaching dangerously high levels, at "Sredneprovskaya hydroelectric power station" - which on <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/search/%D0%A1%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F+%D0%93%D0%AD%D0%A1/@48.6241148,34.3119232,30331m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu">Google Maps takes me to Kamiamske HPP</a>. "IMPORTANT! At the Sredneprovskaya hydroelectric power station, the Ukrainian authorities have not discharged water from the Dnieper since April, due to the fact that it rises, flooding the settlements [upstream]. At the moment, local authorities are evacuating the civilian population, which they themselves flooded." There were confused-seeming fears that this dam would fail and then "the flow will sweep up to the Kakhovskaya HPP itself. And since the locks of the Kakhovskaya HPP are in an emergency condition, the discharge will lead to their destruction and the development of flooding events downstream." </p><p>But in that crisis situation, Kamianske presumably sent the built-up excess on to the Dnipro HPP, sometime probably just after May 10. Dnipro may have depleted itself prior to that by getting Lake Kakhovka 100% by May 6. This massive re-charge plus late May runoff would allow them to keep the lake flooded all through May and into June.</p><p><b>Zaporizhzhia HPP (</b><b>aka Dnipro HPP</b><b>) reservoir</b></p><p>This is the final dam in the Ukrainian cascade, the one to finally pass on every fatal gallon that had accumulated between later March and late May. It's also the one whose shut floodgates will decide how dry the reservoir crossing will get after the flood. But they don't have much record of water levels in the relevant span.</p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0427?lang=en">KM0427</a> on the river well north of the main reservoir, or just south of Kamianske HPP. Normal level range: 51.2-51.8m. It was low in January and February, then rose 0.25m between Feb. 3 and March 2. but <b>no data since (no readings for late March, April, May or June)</b>. Coordinates: 34.9414, 48.5069 (lon, lat) </p><p>Late add: reports are back as of 6/18. It was 51.4m then - <b>0.3m drop since March 2</b>.</p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_MOKRA-SURA_KM0397?lang=en">KM0397</a> River Mokra-sura just 500m from the reservoir and clearly swelled by it/part of it. UP 0.65m 3/9-4/5 (50.98 - 51.63m) before the worst April rains. <b>An entry for May 1 or 2 is missing.</b> By 5/29 it's down from its high to 51.46m. That's a drop of 0.17m since April 5. Coord 48°19'46.6"N+35°07'35.8"E</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1662948251971072003">May 28</a> rains led to flooding in Dnipro city - that too would flow into this reservoir, probably in time to be sent on and help crack the Russian dam. But it doesn't show at KM0397 on the 29th. </p><p><a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_SAMARA_KM0491?lang=en">KM0491</a> River Samara (east of Dnipro) - rise after 4/15 (rains?) then a steady high level on 5/12 and 6/8. This could reflect the reservoir level somewhat, but at some 30km upstream, probably not. It's a very winding river that would be slow to drain April rains. That's probably all we see here, as I scrape for clues. Coord: 46.782, 33.1356</p><p>Consider this was THE final and direct input to Kahkovka lake, was much more shed after May 29? Kakhovka levels showed heavy output through May, roughly matched by input to maintain a steady near-full level, with surges to all-full notable on/by May 8 and May 20. Those might be extra injections from Dnipro. Last LK entry before collapse was June 4, and I wouldn't be surprised that it missed at least one final and sizeable injection of water.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>So it's hard to say how much water passed through all these stations, except we can say it's what wound up downstream, and it added up to a hell of a lot, and more than the Russians could manage. From Zaporizhzhia north, flood season was wrapping up by early June, with levels relaxing and rivers draining to comfortable levels. This seems natural and normal in itself, but just a few kilometers south of there, the worst flood season ever was just about to reach a terrible climax the Russians and the locals were all but powerless to prevent. </p><p>David Helms consider Mikael Valtersson's accusation of Ukraine flooding Lake Kakhovka (after and before the collapse), and claimed in reply: "If Vatnikersson was correct, the dams would be below normal water level, but all were > storage level!" Based probably on the same data I've cited, he shows no problem at the 5 upstream dams by comparing the few reported levels with some historical norm, for the dates April 17, April 28, and June 19, completely skipping the more relevant details considered above. And as a meteorologist, he probably knows better. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUBHEVquxLzvbwDs2bg-_nLlZxYJZ42MpqLpJ2424Cib3PVAjuCVne0_9C0tgR3Uer-Tiwx0F4oVXR2b9zQ9nQRIknGmpe4lv3PKiZ78Q3VbLRp1nglIVIgU2p4t6w3SNZklD0lt4ooFKvYOBX3VXwveL2yldrUjqMBgd9CpFQErLiBoSrciNE-kjcAPms/s793/Screenshot%20(4753).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="633" data-original-width="793" height="510" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUBHEVquxLzvbwDs2bg-_nLlZxYJZ42MpqLpJ2424Cib3PVAjuCVne0_9C0tgR3Uer-Tiwx0F4oVXR2b9zQ9nQRIknGmpe4lv3PKiZ78Q3VbLRp1nglIVIgU2p4t6w3SNZklD0lt4ooFKvYOBX3VXwveL2yldrUjqMBgd9CpFQErLiBoSrciNE-kjcAPms/w640-h510/Screenshot%20(4753).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>What's more helpful is to check what they held before the April deluge vs. after, wonder why it falls, wonder how and when, and why there are so many gaps in the bookkeeping of it all. In fact, his colored ovals show - to some extent - a swelling of the river that's shuffled around and ultimately passed south, as I have proposed. He also skips both of the final reservoirs in his consideration. I didn't find anything close enough to the Kamianske reservoir, but I'm not sure why he didn't consult KM0427 or KM0397 for some idea of the crucial lake at Dnipro HPP.</p><p>Helms: "The IG video shows Dnipro HPP discharging water. Why? Because in April the Dnipro River was in flood. That's was responsible dam operators do." He doesn't seem to know the actual levels there, but ... "Responsible dam operators" refuse to carry their share of the flood, and pass it all to the Russians, along with a bit of what they had before, as 4 allied dams upstream all did the same? "Irresponsible" dam operators ... well, they're Russian and all their equipment gets broken, and then their dams burst and - just like they wreck their own pipelines, bridges, cities, and maybe nuclear plants - the cruel, moronic, subhuman "orcs" obviously did it all to themselves. That's all you really need to know. Maybe someday they'll end up wiping themselves out in death camps.</p><p><b>Add 6/24: </b>David Helms isn't just a NAFO guy on Twitter - he was cited by NYT! (<a href="https://twitter.com/Val85960950/status/1671555787313782786">Val on Twitter knew that</a>)</p><p>"It is unclear exactly how the water level rose so significantly since then. But David Helms, a former <b>U.S. Air Force and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorologist who researches dams</b>, said the Russian forces [their approved dam operators -ed] seem to have kept too few gates open to control the flow of winter snowmelt and spring rains. Likening the effect to a leaky bucket, Mr. Helms said that <b>too much water has been entering the reservoir. </b>"What the river is doing is dumping a lot of water in," Mr. Helms said. "And it's far exceeding the discharge rate."</p><p>More gates should have been opened in the circumstances, making downstream flooding not just bad but disastrous. But "Russian forces" didn't, perhaps couldn't. This terrible decision had been forced - and he doesn't note that it would be terrible - by the circumstances. As Helms puts it, that was down to "the river" just dumping it on this one reservoir in particular. <span style="background-color: #ffd966;">He doesn't mention how <b>Ukraine operated that river.</b></span> But there ate the end of it, like "a leaky bucket" (??) the Russians didn't drain ENOUGH and/or allowed too much come in from the Dnipro HPP gates. There's nothing "Russian forces" could do to stop that inflow except to forcibly take over management at this other dam. Was it negligent of them to to leave Ukrainians in charge? There's a case to be made for that.</p><p><b>P.S. (maybe to move) Flooding After?</b></p><p>... well, even with the dam intact, the downstream towards Kherson was intentionally flooded to about half the level they worried required evacuation. After the dam was destroyed, in a more total way than considered last year, levels rose at least to about 6 meters above normal. </p><p>KM076 June 11 entry: 6.81m (normal ~1m)</p><p>KM062 June 13 4.22m (normal 0.7)</p><p>KM089 June 14 entry: 4.77m. Normal 0.5. This is 8 days after the collapse. Was it getting worse? KM089 is usually shallower than 062, but it's deeper than it here, and on the next day, when levels are supposed to be receding. Is this indicative of continued flooding past what the reservoir held? 6-7 days estimated for it to drain. That would be by the 12th or 13th. <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/kakhovka-ukraine-russia-kherson-video-1805849#:~:text=Kakhovka%20reservoir%20before%20and%20after%20the%20dam%20was,estimates%2C%20this%20decrease%20will%20continue%20for%206-7%20days.">Kakhovka Reservoir Water Levels Shown Before and After Dam Was Blown Up (newsweek.com)</a></p><p>Gerashchenko: "June 11 Water level in it fell down to 10,07 meters (it decreases about 6-7 centimeters per hour). By estimates, this decrease will continue for 6-7 days." (from now? is that an unexpected delay to the 17th or 18th? or does he mean it should be done very soon?) https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1667961642934583296</p><p>June 16 view of the dam area 10 days later looks pretty flooded still - but then the far side (bottom) is much lower than it was on the 6th (8m+ above the normal 0.5) - maybe 5-6m deep? - and this is about the same as in the reservoir - and the intact lower part of the dam might be close to surfacing/preventing further outflow ... Uh ... I dunno. Consider all that stuff.:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgae5wEfTvIpcM-67i5Xg3-ecNFqGsi_a3fCV3lnyAURTzHhNYnM4nMes3dCh2ZfPMeDYTIu5ZjJyv3a3RObPeCGy7FLMSVwV4vORlt4IgVP19gQk_pyyPrbv_g4kNIdVMJ0tREUr1eFQKQYKWllvAg82ABn5CUSId98Dwc057VFqpeMF5ygz7pf0PfFA/s1721/NK_Dam_6-16-23.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1721" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgae5wEfTvIpcM-67i5Xg3-ecNFqGsi_a3fCV3lnyAURTzHhNYnM4nMes3dCh2ZfPMeDYTIu5ZjJyv3a3RObPeCGy7FLMSVwV4vORlt4IgVP19gQk_pyyPrbv_g4kNIdVMJ0tREUr1eFQKQYKWllvAg82ABn5CUSId98Dwc057VFqpeMF5ygz7pf0PfFA/w640-h402/NK_Dam_6-16-23.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p>June 15 photo shows levels greatly receded near Kozats'ke (silos at 46.7798948,33.3205627) - just 4-5km downstream from the dam https://twitter.com/I_P_News/status/1669328429479776258</p><p>Hydroweb records LK: June 9 11.86m, bottoming out their chart - with a new re-scaled chart, <b>By June 17 (I think*) it was dropped to 3.91m</b>, then ... <b>refilled greatly to 8.9m on the 18th. </b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi47ihIeOPIPvZHPFT1aasAVTyQSPpczWpUYov02k9b5hZ5bXQKFfrnSlh4mGCi_8ZTy0_WwYHadNzswcolGQ1KLqsUg_vhjymvRmZL4LYsTXnv6GzY3T9dlj3cTOVT8lm29CdPiNYDPNn3tv5MUO7Xdl3IHwTmAmNfxr24B4xofSTY0MdzohkIWKQQlCY0/s1383/Screenshot%20(4740).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="745" data-original-width="1383" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi47ihIeOPIPvZHPFT1aasAVTyQSPpczWpUYov02k9b5hZ5bXQKFfrnSlh4mGCi_8ZTy0_WwYHadNzswcolGQ1KLqsUg_vhjymvRmZL4LYsTXnv6GzY3T9dlj3cTOVT8lm29CdPiNYDPNn3tv5MUO7Xdl3IHwTmAmNfxr24B4xofSTY0MdzohkIWKQQlCY0/w640-h344/Screenshot%20(4740).png" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>I'm not sure what that means. How can it fill back up? Is this just a fluke of super-low levels? I imagine a floating sensor might come down in a shallower pool, separated from the main river, and was then refloated by locally rising waters during an inexplicable post-collapse surge. For example. </p><p>* I went back to check <a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/L_kakhovka?lang=en">that page</a>, and<b> the graph has been reverted to how it was before those entries. I wonder why? </b>(cropped screen-grab above is from June 20, 1:56am Pacific time)</p><p>Would it even be helpful to maintain such a flow? The initial flooding was terrible and could hardly be worsened just by keeping the same areas underwater for longer. At a certain point, Ukraine would want to close the gates, stop the flooding, let the reservoir dry up ... and then maybe cross to attack. </p><p>Videos and satellite views show a dried up reservoir to the north around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (its cooling pond is separate and remains full) - a flatter area than here at the dam. (pic forthcoming) <a href="https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1668400882566701091">Erik Zimerman on Twitter:</a> June 12 Dnipro HPP (at Zaporizhzhia - the last dam in Ukraine's line) closed up over drying river bed, and we can guess the reservoir behind that dam is <i>not</i> being flooded from upstream any longer.</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/HolmgrenTweets/status/1668324037947453440"></a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhATFrgkcgKuHcX0QPc_WrvS4dlkNqt47nzKVGPboBN_pnSzDk-mlUUrdySucI9KnqDyu3xnt_DqxZVvEg_m-W6dOWCq9muCAK8qO3Bd0lMp1BOhRdv7NS073DMifITxkw3d62mrglrjUhzVUXNP8jRUHIy-T1U_iFuxxrrgcEqIDlHYiUNJ5EAZZAF8f1D/s789/Screenshot%20(4736).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="607" data-original-width="789" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhATFrgkcgKuHcX0QPc_WrvS4dlkNqt47nzKVGPboBN_pnSzDk-mlUUrdySucI9KnqDyu3xnt_DqxZVvEg_m-W6dOWCq9muCAK8qO3Bd0lMp1BOhRdv7NS073DMifITxkw3d62mrglrjUhzVUXNP8jRUHIy-T1U_iFuxxrrgcEqIDlHYiUNJ5EAZZAF8f1D/s320/Screenshot%20(4736).png" width="320" /></a></div>Mathias Holmgren @HolmgrenTweets · Jun 12 "Just heard from @noclador on @MriyaReport . Ukr have closed all inflow gates upstream of the Nova Kahkovka dam basin. In a few days the basin may be close to fully emptied, and filled with dry sand. So up to 100 km wide area of easilly fordable terrain, w no RU fortifications." Those "lucky" Ukrainians. There were reports on the 15th that they had crossed the river, but further south near the dam, and had laid siege to Nova Kakhovka city, leading to clashes. " Right now, a shooting battle is going on near Nova Kakhovka. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, presumably, repulse an attempted landing by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This was reported by the correspondent of "Izvestia" Emil Timashev. Shooting is also heard in Tavriysk and Sosny." (Takriysk anyway is just east of NK) https://t.me/izvestia/134317 <p>video https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1669446430279213057 </p><p>A drone strike on a hospital was also reported. </p><p>https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1669676044838748163</p><p>And then there's <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/search/label/ZNPP">the ZNPP</a>. And other implications. ...</p><p><b>Add July 10: </b>In this post, I didn't name who ran the dams, first from not knowing it, then from it's being awkward. But now, what did Ukrhydroenergo, who operated these 5 dams, have to say about their relentless flooding on the Kakhovka reservoir?</p><p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-fears-nuclear-plant-could-face-dangerous-water-cooling-shortage-2023-03-27/">Reuters report, March 27</a> "Ihor Syrota, director general of the state-run Ukrhydroenergo hydropower generating company ... voiced concern about what would happen if water levels fell further at the Kakhovka reservoir ... The level has fallen because Russian troops who control the reservoir, and also the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station and dam, have let some water out through sluice gates, he said. ... Syrota said the level had risen since then thanks to the winter thaw" and also to Ukrhydroenergo's dams generously passing that all on to the Russians: </p><p>"They (the Russians) are discharging a certain volume and <b>we have raised the level</b> to 14.30 metres from 13.50-13.60 metres. But still the gates (of the dam) are open," Syrota said. Still, with the gates just as open, the Ukrainian dams foiled Russia's possible drainage plot way too well. Through April they raised the level further and further, to and clear past the safe range, until it was 100% full by May 6. </p><p>Along the way, they <a href="https://twitter.com/Ukrhydroenergo/status/1648637967160811521">boasted on April 19</a> "The flood is subsides. #Ukrhydroenergo hydroelectric power stations on the #Dnipro and #Dniester regulate [water] levels, avoid flooding, and continue controlling discharges in compliance with safety standards." "In compliance with safety standards," as they say, Ukrhydroenergo kept filling the reservoir until it was 100% full, and then kept pouring so it stayed that full for one month until the dam burst. Then Ukrhydroenergo claimed it was a Russian bombing, with strangely specific allegations ready within hours.</p><p><a href="https://uhe.gov.ua/media_tsentr/novyny/vnochi-6-chervnya-rosiyskimi-okupaciynimi-viyskami-zdiysneno-pidriv-kakhovskoi?__cf_chl_tk=6yoPxNKRi1ufgyJQkesVRo3Eb1Q2v278c1NvK.w.8a4-1688993134-0-gaNycGzNDHs">ON THE NIGHT OF JUNE 6, RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES BLEW UP THE KAKHOVKA HYDROELECTRIC STATION</a></p><p>"06-06-2023 - As a result of the explosion of the engine room from the inside, the Kakhovka HPP was completely destroyed. The station cannot be restored." No explanation was given for the dam's partial collapse <i>20 minutes before</i> the final and mysterious event where part of the engine room might have been blown up. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4smFEs3p_YS3bEUSSlgiEOVqNlFBlKdhzm7QY5SFfs1PeK0wYgBWTQE7es3tj9zoEEEs95r-uGc2CTNNFnoVdHlTl1RfiGvfqogPb_oWBpldXCMBdQ31sQ27EPW-iIWZpGqqMZeVaAcbEm_PTHQp5JdSS5URBQLf7wJzBQx3MNnSgGHxeDlOAf5ZxzOPS/s1342/NK%20dam%20Ukrhydroenergo%20claims.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="1342" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4smFEs3p_YS3bEUSSlgiEOVqNlFBlKdhzm7QY5SFfs1PeK0wYgBWTQE7es3tj9zoEEEs95r-uGc2CTNNFnoVdHlTl1RfiGvfqogPb_oWBpldXCMBdQ31sQ27EPW-iIWZpGqqMZeVaAcbEm_PTHQp5JdSS5URBQLf7wJzBQx3MNnSgGHxeDlOAf5ZxzOPS/w640-h284/NK%20dam%20Ukrhydroenergo%20claims.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Ukrhydroenergo were keen to show the results of "Russia's" crime once it was done, but I don't see any sign of them complaining about Ukrainian shelling that damaged the dam and some of the reservoir's other release valves, and act completely unaware of this disastrous situation they engineered, that was probably the main cause of the collapse. In fact, they seem to have deliberately exclude this dam from their considerations as they pretended to manage all this water safely.</p><p>May 29 https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3569</p><p><b>The decline in water levels continues</b> ... As a result of water harvesting through the reservoirs of the Dnieper Cascade, fluctuations in water levels were observed within the range of 1-10 cm per day, with a predominance of subsidence.</p><p>The volume of water in the cascade of the Dnipro reservoirs as of May 28 was equal to 47,616 cubic km, which is 3,768 cubic km higher than the volume of reservoirs at the normal support level (NPR), <span style="background-color: #ffd966;"><b>without taking into account the Kakhovsky reservoir</b>, </span>the volume of water in the cascade is equal to 27,116 cubic km .km (by 1,458 cubic km exceeds the volume of reservoirs at the NPR).</p><p>June 2 https://t.me/ukrhydroenergo/3591</p><p>"There is a decrease in the flow of water along the rivers. Water levels in the reservoirs of the Dnipro Cascade continue to decrease." Not at the disregard Kakhovka dam. It was nearing the end of a maxxed-out month and about to collapse. </p>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-82277607881023716672023-06-13T03:11:00.015-07:002023-06-20T03:05:31.718-07:00What Caused the Collapse of the Nova Kakhovka Dam?<p><b>June 13, 2023 </b><b>(rough)</b></p><p><b>minor edits 6/16, update June 20</b></p><p><b>Blame Review </b></p><p>Who, if anyone, intentionally destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam a week ago remains unclear. Ukraine was just launching a new offensive and Russia would want to complicate it. Depending on their plans either side might see some benefit in flooding the Dnieper river basin, to allow their own moves or hinder the enemy's. </p><p>It seems the Russian side loses more, with Russian-occupied villages on the south bank mainly flooded, with minefields and defenses the Russians had placed primarily washed out away. The reservoir's sudden draining also threatens water supply to Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, both Russian-controlled (though both have reserves and backup plans, and will likely avoid disaster).</p><p>The Ukrainian side will probably suffer some headaches as well, including flooding parts of Kherson city, but on balance ... they planned to use limited flooding against the Russian occupiers, even "testing" it in one of their several <i>strikes on the dam using US-supplied HIMARS rockets,</i> as <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20221229064018/https:/www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/">the <i>Washington Post </i>famously reported in December</a>, citing Major General Andrey Kovalchuk, head of Ukraine's offensive in the Kherson area. "The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings." They hoped to limit flooding in villages, which is wise - that danger is why such strikes are deemed illegal. (cited via <a href="http://zububrothers.com/2023/06/06/dont-forget-wapos-report-from-december-about-kievs-plans-to-blow-up-the-kakhovka-dam/">http://zububrothers.com/2023/06/06/dont-forget-wapos-report-from-december-about-kievs-plans-to-blow-up-the-kakhovka-dam/</a>)</p><p>In contrast, we've heard kneejerk assertions that the Russians obviously did it on the evidence that they're evil, and as we've long known, they're SO evil they don't mind shooting themselves in the foot. We also hear that they had plans to do it that were intercepted by US intel, and that a Russian phone call about doing it was intercepted by Ukrainian intel. Least fake,<i> as read,</i> is a law passed in Russia just days before the disaster seeming to bar investigations of any dam disaster in occupied Ukraine (<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-smoking-gun-on-ukraine-dam-collapse/ar-AA1ckFK9">Newsweek via MSN</a>). That's worth looking into next, but for now let's just consider that, even if this pans out, it isn't such clear proof we should stop looking at the evidence.</p><p>Russia called it a Ukrainian attack, but gave no specifics like weapon used, and failed to produce any video evidence showing the event. They have footage from moments after an initial breach and before the final collapse (see below), but they don't show either relevant moment. </p><p>Huge on-site explosives were either necessary or most likely, and now seismic data is said to show this. We'll come back to that soon. I've wondered about floating mines or something heavier sent downstream, or divers somehow placing heavier explosives under the water without the Russians noticing, as happened with the Nord Stream pipelines. I don't know how plausible that is here. The Ukrainians could have had an insider help them smuggle some explosives into the powerhouse. </p><p>And the Russians could have done it much easier in a number of ways with their control of the site. </p><p>I've followed the signs of accidental collapse following on damage and erosion, as traced out here. But in the end I can't even suspect this is the cause and - especially considering the timing - some criminal act seems at least 50% likely. Even after all the following analysis, I only have my hunch Ukraine is somehow to blame, but nothing to convince skeptics or even myself. Others might bring more knowledge or evidence to bear, and this all seems worth exploring just in case it does contain the answer, or some part of it.</p><p><b>McBeth Analysis</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6eHcMXQpjLj9Y2WRuefmfEeYzvwDw6saYBFRWPMcS1GMnGLYJKGfZ9i3TQHKgpssUjVtnN47XdsBDQZj-mfk886UxNSjw6WTfXzrCzuTUL7_X1m2XPhpU4UpIIM1uHPmj3ACW_RwPEjW4FB1xcZlBZd4xO8OaTTmu744im7UW-EL0pRaEwbZYT-rzYg/s1167/Screenshot%20(4695).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="763" data-original-width="1167" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6eHcMXQpjLj9Y2WRuefmfEeYzvwDw6saYBFRWPMcS1GMnGLYJKGfZ9i3TQHKgpssUjVtnN47XdsBDQZj-mfk886UxNSjw6WTfXzrCzuTUL7_X1m2XPhpU4UpIIM1uHPmj3ACW_RwPEjW4FB1xcZlBZd4xO8OaTTmu744im7UW-EL0pRaEwbZYT-rzYg/s320/Screenshot%20(4695).png" width="320" /></a></div>Ryan McBeth is a pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia "OSINT" guy, who recently posted <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6z4rhBKTT5U">a video explaining "How Russia Destroyed the Kakhovka Dam."</a> (At right, cleverly citing himself as part of a well-organized multimedia display.) They did it passively by negligence, he suspects. But then "if incompetence or negligence causes a natural disaster, it's no different than if you planted a bomb." <p></p><p>Previously, I've found McBeth set on absolving Ukrainian forces for a shelling attack on civilians in Donetsk on 19 September. That killed 13 people, most of them shredded to bits at a bus stop. Initially McBeth suspected the scene was all ghoulishly staged, with fake or re-purposed cadavers, just to malign the Ukrainians. He then accepted it was all genuine, and <b>read the shell impact backwards</b> (as coming from the SE, not the NW) to dismiss the massacre as some almost comical Russian or DPR friendly fire incompetence (<a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/10/september-19-donetsk-attack-crater.html">see here</a>). Even if he had gotten that right, it still fails to explain the same kind of thing happening hundreds of times before and after, spanning back to 2014, with nearly all of several dozen that I've checked traceable to Ukrainian positions.</p><p>So he absolves Ukraine's ongoing genocide of ethnic Russians in the former Ukraine. Maybe he's paid to do that (he does accept and probably follows donations, and seems to get plenty of farm-grown bots sent to feign and inspire mass support). But maybe he's just a sheep like so many others, if an upper-tier one. Either way, he seems capable of making good points, I realized after watching this latest. Russian incompetence MIGHT be at play this time. </p><p>McBeth blames Russia for negligent management, hardly seeming to care their work was complicated by Ukrainian forces on the far bank, using snipers (as he finds obvious) and shelling (which he doesn't mention), overflooding (not mentioned), and perhaps other measures. So his conclusion is again dubious and partial. But it's put together with explanations that makes it all pretty useful to watch. I'm actually recommending it.</p><p>He might be right that the disaster was not caused intentionally by either side, but that's not sure enough to bet on. Either way, he raises a number of technical points that seem highly relevant. though they may not explain the event. As far as I can tell, it could be the Russians placed a bomb right there, or their enemies managed to do so, and Ryan McBeth is going soft on someone's war crime. </p><p>Enough rambling prelude. Now to the rambling relation of what he covered and what he ignored.</p><p><b>Seismic Readings: A 2-Stage Collapse with No Bomb?</b></p><p>At 9:55 in his video, McBeth discusses the vaunted seismic readings said to prove a Russian bomb blew the dam. As he notes, with no amplitude scale, it's not clear what size of vibrations it truly shows, which should be a red flag. And he notes "the explosion AND subsequent collapse should come in as two different kinds of waves," while we see a concentration of spikes that could just be the rumble of the dam breaking and the start of violent flooding. </p><p>The widely-cited source: <a href="https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signals-recorded-from-an-explosion-at-the-kakhovka-dam-in-ukraine">https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signals-recorded-from-an-explosion-at-the-kakhovka-dam-in-ukraine</a></p><p>"Data from regional seismic stations show clear signals on Tuesday 6 June at 2:54 local time (01:54 Norwegian time). Time and location (coordinates: 46.7776, 33.37) coincide with reports in the media about the collapse of the Kakhovka dam. The signals indicate that there was an explosion. The magnitude estimate is between 1 and 2."</p><p>"The figure below shows signals from the Bukovina (BURAR) seismic array, a station that is approximately 620 km from the dam."</p><p>Here's the published image, with my notes based on the provided time scale. "Magnitude estimated between 1 and 2" (vertical scale, vague) and timespan shown - (it's 2:55 into 2:56, not 2:54 like they said). By this, the possible bomb blast occurs over about 1.5 to 2 seconds, but its amplitude is about the same as - often weaker than - the rumble that follows for about 20 seconds of dam collapse and initial flooding. This continues noticeably for about a minute before it fades into the backdrop. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzwiq-oc4uHhf50azhcCbOX2iBOaQvS-1sdNUOOnVO7XHYjhySvGnT3pXh-Id8uzd82KBoeNAx0qnUWsA5UpB73u_iEb7aR7MsrIaLblkAQvDBoCTMg6hDomat59K_p0mpNteU6JZxT40ph1MvTtWRfn7lwn1F3lOZRVMoUH8c7ZNB27KFPepafuk4HQ/s960/FyHBg9kXsAMvRC7.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="374" data-original-width="960" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzwiq-oc4uHhf50azhcCbOX2iBOaQvS-1sdNUOOnVO7XHYjhySvGnT3pXh-Id8uzd82KBoeNAx0qnUWsA5UpB73u_iEb7aR7MsrIaLblkAQvDBoCTMg6hDomat59K_p0mpNteU6JZxT40ph1MvTtWRfn7lwn1F3lOZRVMoUH8c7ZNB27KFPepafuk4HQ/w640-h250/FyHBg9kXsAMvRC7.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Same site: "UPDATE: Based on new analysis, we have also observed weak signals from an earlier seismic event from approximately 02:35 (local time in Ukraine) originating from the direction of the Kakhovka Dam." That should be even weaker than the above, so not much of a bomb if it was one at all. It could be a mid-sized bomb was used just to create a small initial breach, letting the massive water pressure do the rest of the work. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc14vmP7czIg3pxDWSaFoPsO2AbSXh-GBXw8_QBZHtBSj_2hUt2JxiCQVcv6cUOE8R-PEGD3W9_8g7_-pS6OWO2C4c8qrkPA7bOz2lasbt4dhZlJHizihgowSCPK1uMVcUuCPQlrV3Mo-4EX9TfDbhj3djZHKqr4ezdHTqAVBLXh_oXNMFaIJrvLUr1w/s1238/Screenshot%20(4669).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="932" data-original-width="1238" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc14vmP7czIg3pxDWSaFoPsO2AbSXh-GBXw8_QBZHtBSj_2hUt2JxiCQVcv6cUOE8R-PEGD3W9_8g7_-pS6OWO2C4c8qrkPA7bOz2lasbt4dhZlJHizihgowSCPK1uMVcUuCPQlrV3Mo-4EX9TfDbhj3djZHKqr4ezdHTqAVBLXh_oXNMFaIJrvLUr1w/w400-h301/Screenshot%20(4669).png" width="400" /></a></div>In between, we saw video released by the Russians (not sure who exactly), taken at 2:46am by its timestamp. In line with the above, the dam is partly breached, some 11 min. after the first recorded event, What seems to be a small mine on or at the intact part of the dam detonates just as a seagull or a pair of them passes close, but the dam stays the same as the video ends. I <a href="https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1666414343091818496">posted this on Twitter,</a> wondering "Why a mine there, going off on its own? Were there others before?" And could that matter much if so? No regular mine could come close to breaching the dam. It might be one washed down from upstream or one the Russians laid on the dam, triggered by vibrations of the ongoing collapse. <p>That camera view shows the far (NW) quarter of the powerhouse, while the 3rd quarter just off-frame here would be destroyed in some discontinuous damage - most logically in a separate event and later than this. Being off-frame, it might be destroyed here, but there's no indication of it, and we hear there was just one noise. The second and louder event might have been there, and it might have been a bomb set in the powerhouse, although the signal doesn't clearly prove that (or it needs clarified). McBeth proposed if the Russians HAD bombed the dam, this is how they'd do it. Maybe they did.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-usyXjy0jrkSZ0J8SSLTvRmn62OGerTq6lxkpMg362ryjdMd7JCu6pG2PhPXRWKKG09lBCQkuEL8X6Gp544yxIyRq9wGCUqUzCY04p_k6rTSQL-k4_qnsvswBZN_uH8fRmU6xru02UTQGdB0_ccWiTYJIr7UdCUR1daPWLNQRJAP-M3-fppeZMvcwWQ/s1289/Screenshot%20(4661).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="701" data-original-width="1289" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-usyXjy0jrkSZ0J8SSLTvRmn62OGerTq6lxkpMg362ryjdMd7JCu6pG2PhPXRWKKG09lBCQkuEL8X6Gp544yxIyRq9wGCUqUzCY04p_k6rTSQL-k4_qnsvswBZN_uH8fRmU6xru02UTQGdB0_ccWiTYJIr7UdCUR1daPWLNQRJAP-M3-fppeZMvcwWQ/w400-h217/Screenshot%20(4661).png" width="400" /></a></div>Later drone views show the missing section of the powerhouse, with light smoke coming from inside the remainder, consistent with an explosion in the section now gone, starting wider fires. I'll need to review more images to say if explosives are suggested, or maybe a natural explosion related to the collapse, or just a second collapse somehow centered there and a related fire inside. Any of those seems possible as well.<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Map of the dam collapse:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCP6Wk8Tb2kYrbkt4FtUo1P8CzKdKuLE-wdWpJeX97MPT07XegTNHrBptT0tu3Nq-fk4A27xYRaXr2ej9m25eH55y8EvVsSrg32S_o54j2T39Au_ThV3Jo8yDbqtc0yrD0F9FqIU58KdLL1D0RYt047eKZMUO2oDt5DWkZNP9h_XeuVDmlGkFko-meDQ/s1200/NK%20dam%20collapse%20map.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="551" data-original-width="1200" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCP6Wk8Tb2kYrbkt4FtUo1P8CzKdKuLE-wdWpJeX97MPT07XegTNHrBptT0tu3Nq-fk4A27xYRaXr2ej9m25eH55y8EvVsSrg32S_o54j2T39Au_ThV3Jo8yDbqtc0yrD0F9FqIU58KdLL1D0RYt047eKZMUO2oDt5DWkZNP9h_XeuVDmlGkFko-meDQ/w640-h294/NK%20dam%20collapse%20map.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><br /></div><div>So we have 2 stages of breach recorded as seismic events, and at least one smaller mine blast in between. No single event - no smoking gun bomb - clearly emerges, although it remains quite possible. It could be a bomb in the powerhouse plus a mysterious and obviously related earlier breach, in some planned attack to either aid or thwart the Ukrainian offensive. But there is the accident angle to consider, with more mundane details, some of which likely play into the events either way.</div><p><b>Hydrologic Overload?</b></p><p>McBeth points out how <b>the dam was collapsing already over a span of days leading up to the final failure. </b><a href="https://twitter.com/Mare_Indicum/status/1666031901419905024">Charles Wood helped me to realize</a> right away, pointing to Maxar satellite images <a href="https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1665938248722444289">posted by Christiaan Triebert</a> showing a curved section of roadway collapsing between images of May 28 and June 5. McBeth had a look at and shared some satellite views he purchased - dated November 11 2022, March 3, June 1 and June 2, 2023 (and maybe just those 4?). He also spoke with some experts and did some research on dams that seems good to me, if incomplete and debatable (I debate it below). </p><p>Two issues McBeth highlights relate to water over and maybe under the dam. He emphasizes "overtopping," where an overfilled reservoir spills over the top of the dam. He notes mild turbulence all across the dam in the June views, indicating this (below, June 1). It's also evident in late May<strike> and perhaps also in the March 3 view, if more mild</strike>. As he shows, this would be fatal for an earthen dam, but with a concrete one like this, it probably does nothing but indicate that it's totally full. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOPQTX1PtYaGNvWLJIz59_Q5Q9pFh3jfuKjSddCET8bZ-CR9rxV8Z4noTOgVkI47h0HV7kKYE5Nn1L-olHsPp-N5acD8jt4ayNp9WATP4WP8AD_Ip_-TNmyooV8KWb6c-Pt1f6EHdu3W3ZfMotOx-wyzK_dTTASnJq0C5ZK3tQbJkxQAaFKhHkYkDzhA/s1920/Screenshot%20(4700).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOPQTX1PtYaGNvWLJIz59_Q5Q9pFh3jfuKjSddCET8bZ-CR9rxV8Z4noTOgVkI47h0HV7kKYE5Nn1L-olHsPp-N5acD8jt4ayNp9WATP4WP8AD_Ip_-TNmyooV8KWb6c-Pt1f6EHdu3W3ZfMotOx-wyzK_dTTASnJq0C5ZK3tQbJkxQAaFKhHkYkDzhA/w640-h360/Screenshot%20(4700).png" width="640" /></a><span style="text-align: left;"> </span></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI8m2NL_XkvR2xgjx7hG4Fi4RhL5kc3aa2f_6Odcgk8ndoIbMzBWmaq8sUV7U-qxA7QD9Lime8-qu-blfP0AoPZ5fVMVdch3PCJjQGMsu89I0D8a_lSsW8EGobVrVMUmFyHQnqqrXh8U5jatsawM5cR83qDhqAEgTgBUw0qccHohOEH8KBTLC1uS6mNA/s819/Screenshot%20(4702).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="819" data-original-width="627" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI8m2NL_XkvR2xgjx7hG4Fi4RhL5kc3aa2f_6Odcgk8ndoIbMzBWmaq8sUV7U-qxA7QD9Lime8-qu-blfP0AoPZ5fVMVdch3PCJjQGMsu89I0D8a_lSsW8EGobVrVMUmFyHQnqqrXh8U5jatsawM5cR83qDhqAEgTgBUw0qccHohOEH8KBTLC1uS6mNA/w306-h400/Screenshot%20(4702).png" width="306" /></a></div>As shown above, the few sluice gates on the southeast end, nearest to the hydroelectric powerhouse, were kept open constantly, as far as he saw. The above shows this, as do images from March and May. As McBeth notes, this is likely to cause "hydrodynamic scouring," where turbulent water digs under an obstruction, eventually causing it to collapse. (his illustration at top , and I would think the other side being scoured makes more sense, but the idea is the same). <div><p></p><p>McBeth wondered if such scouring could work itself "back and back" to undermine the dam. I doubt that. It won't happen on the reservoir side because turbulent water happens at release, at the far end of a ramp, and then moves away from the dam. So I don't see how this could cause the dam to collapse. (bottom illustration by me to show what would need to happen. The ramp is probably not that long, but the idea is the same).</p><p>I wouldn't expect this to even budge well-anchored external structures, but we can see such objects in this vicinity actually moving. Hydrodynamic scour might be what dislodged part of a flow guide (proper name?) sometime between March 3 (left - intact) and May 28 (right - broken). </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqXKe6D_HZvgq3C2gV_GJgwus33brO69qaP_8sdhKdl9Zkf1V3bj8Z7IFfJtphm7VepwEKYaFzknvfzPlW8gaqV-lADs1WUC2OFerp4V5RGVP5lfQaA_mT1FepoXzoL_AoWBWqW_SxaitpPS2iPrGbYYXZb84q-vI-NxfgsAvDSzXDRoqBvDaMGhfmuA/s1232/Screenshot%20(4703).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="554" data-original-width="1232" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqXKe6D_HZvgq3C2gV_GJgwus33brO69qaP_8sdhKdl9Zkf1V3bj8Z7IFfJtphm7VepwEKYaFzknvfzPlW8gaqV-lADs1WUC2OFerp4V5RGVP5lfQaA_mT1FepoXzoL_AoWBWqW_SxaitpPS2iPrGbYYXZb84q-vI-NxfgsAvDSzXDRoqBvDaMGhfmuA/w640-h288/Screenshot%20(4703).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>It's probably the same force, acting just meters away, that took out the supports for the curved section of roadway that collapsed a few days before the dam was breached, as McBeth logically proposes. These were washed away or toppled so they were fully submerged and not even visible. (see below.)</p><p>Why were these few gates so overused? They're the ones closest to the Russian side, and McBeth nonchalantly suggests they kept using that position for fear of Ukrainian snipers on the other side targeting the plant's staff. "I could teach an NPR reporter to hit a man-sized target at 800 meters with an optic and a rifle that I bought at Wal-Mart," he says. </p><p><a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/74024">https://t.me/militarydonetsk/74024</a> March 25 report: "Ukrainian militants are shelling the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station and approaches to it from a large-caliber sniper rifle, the commander of the station’s security told RIA Novosti." That's when we see only these gates furthest from the snipers being used. So the snipers sure didn't help matters.</p><p>We'll come back to hydrologic overload and the reasons for it. First, an issue McBeth failed to address.</p><p><b>Ukrainian Shelling Attacks</b></p><p>McBeth notes a mysterious brown patch appearing on the curved section of roadway in an image from March 3. He doesn't know what it is, but it seems to come from Ukrainian shelling of the dam, perhaps with US-supplied HIMARS rockets. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwx9fPg-YhN9RmU2z_ulMz4h0zSAFFY3GZ9rxnRy9gcXAzsKvtfEcBWu1wmwB_e5kxoH0ej1gBtKfs5c8H-XohVg75BYPxOu-DUBz12roAPjjfbg0BBSwPu32-4RWDweImDzGKSZRHxd-JlKB8NoS1hT8rsU1Bi_GFn5SjGPARYOT6kwDeQQPjrlPJgw/s1920/Screenshot%20(4687).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwx9fPg-YhN9RmU2z_ulMz4h0zSAFFY3GZ9rxnRy9gcXAzsKvtfEcBWu1wmwB_e5kxoH0ej1gBtKfs5c8H-XohVg75BYPxOu-DUBz12roAPjjfbg0BBSwPu32-4RWDweImDzGKSZRHxd-JlKB8NoS1hT8rsU1Bi_GFn5SjGPARYOT6kwDeQQPjrlPJgw/w640-h360/Screenshot%20(4687).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>He says the brown (or rust-colored) spot was not there on November 11, and from the view presented, it seems so. But via video, again, it's pretty blurry.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii8QYhY90jR8tL_gKWc50AXOGtB6q46OqUNDeJn2rPUAjdJY3R5d60jrC1zzSuRfrZhf9zmUhdaXTXISKC_E293oEyLZBPMH8QUh2b0fvM_HTTfLliKZwP76yp7qgsK5l6JE9jjCiBikSWDaAzrLnTborcXZYYDXce8sT6QjQz7rhktfjiHeuvfYg9eg/s1329/Screenshot%20(4685).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="903" data-original-width="1329" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii8QYhY90jR8tL_gKWc50AXOGtB6q46OqUNDeJn2rPUAjdJY3R5d60jrC1zzSuRfrZhf9zmUhdaXTXISKC_E293oEyLZBPMH8QUh2b0fvM_HTTfLliKZwP76yp7qgsK5l6JE9jjCiBikSWDaAzrLnTborcXZYYDXce8sT6QjQz7rhktfjiHeuvfYg9eg/w640-h434/Screenshot%20(4685).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><div>The spot may be present in a Nov. 12 view (<a href="https://t.me/boris_rozhin/70003">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/70003</a>), along with some strange rough edges ... </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYVEhB0551COxz4bCwuueKls51o4h1UycGFWEQK5PyFo13Y2YNmvPGRnhkvXXnFfsnJqMLIxLX-GWpOIednuPjJwJW-k4FSFawtWJkC3f9LYzcOppyjLeMWYBrBK3-mRyiskq8vYmWFirVbIQgSLJk_fKaj9bkBM0k6MN_xzGHV8E3aR5Pcn_gJerB6w/s1280/NK_Dam_11-12-22_A.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="753" data-original-width="1280" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYVEhB0551COxz4bCwuueKls51o4h1UycGFWEQK5PyFo13Y2YNmvPGRnhkvXXnFfsnJqMLIxLX-GWpOIednuPjJwJW-k4FSFawtWJkC3f9LYzcOppyjLeMWYBrBK3-mRyiskq8vYmWFirVbIQgSLJk_fKaj9bkBM0k6MN_xzGHV8E3aR5Pcn_gJerB6w/w640-h376/NK_Dam_11-12-22_A.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>... and both had <i>seemed</i> to be there in a view from October 18 (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-russian-held-nova-kakhovka-dam-damaged-shelling-russian-media-2022-11-06/">Reuters</a>).<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUfhu2C0NautWbWSykQRFSL6VJDMdY-523cVwW9XmEEZxUWaMTbQTof8LOIDqK0nCXSfQMH95QaC2FwHfYcp_ivZimeID91MKdFSbMiQyMazHgjmtpy1UoYOYrsivCk1107BfCpmOy55XH7ksMJsTBB3tPmQXh_e4xwUWP4H65QfdxMxDNo5Rb7Xiq1g/s960/DHX5ECYWJRM35LLZPQTE57G4LE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="960" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUfhu2C0NautWbWSykQRFSL6VJDMdY-523cVwW9XmEEZxUWaMTbQTof8LOIDqK0nCXSfQMH95QaC2FwHfYcp_ivZimeID91MKdFSbMiQyMazHgjmtpy1UoYOYrsivCk1107BfCpmOy55XH7ksMJsTBB3tPmQXh_e4xwUWP4H65QfdxMxDNo5Rb7Xiq1g/w640-h362/DHX5ECYWJRM35LLZPQTE57G4LE.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>Anyway, a view from May 28 this year gives a clearer look at this rust-colored patch and the rough edges in the same area ...</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk578B9LlFV_VDczfnIMiX3nB2b5rE_St5EOSNSZC65MCR1JtAxjUjOD07YQKKD5tF5bM7HkCaViqlZ6vBgbfhdMuwshkrUKGZKuy4wxdALwW4VSPM_rM7wVtS2XYx4Z7g-nWlHpPCG6wHUvfA5qmy4bKRd5tWMOG6hVOtgVWG8b-vHyxPT_jZJq6RGg/s4096/NK_Dam_5-28-23.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2238" data-original-width="4096" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk578B9LlFV_VDczfnIMiX3nB2b5rE_St5EOSNSZC65MCR1JtAxjUjOD07YQKKD5tF5bM7HkCaViqlZ6vBgbfhdMuwshkrUKGZKuy4wxdALwW4VSPM_rM7wVtS2XYx4Z7g-nWlHpPCG6wHUvfA5qmy4bKRd5tWMOG6hVOtgVWG8b-vHyxPT_jZJq6RGg/w640-h350/NK_Dam_5-28-23.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p>... which corresponds to the section of roadway that collapsed - as McBeth finds - between images from June 1 and 2 (other views show it down on the 4th and - Maxar, below - on the 5th).</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_NfbC4AXYUzGlK83TxH6FM6H_q4sNIrBnJuQTF9Vt1HedGrGQkJmnEItBfWBPPJm5ba85-75bHGd4PW2RbR0JwBHyzjrM_0n6ViaKP7bU9rbOYyWYsEeswCnDHByUSPvJSN3bUowYOQiNzMX_j-RTIt39oWEW_48WdodFH0G8Es90p4mworTJHQI1wA/s4096/NK_Dam_June_5.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2238" data-original-width="4096" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_NfbC4AXYUzGlK83TxH6FM6H_q4sNIrBnJuQTF9Vt1HedGrGQkJmnEItBfWBPPJm5ba85-75bHGd4PW2RbR0JwBHyzjrM_0n6ViaKP7bU9rbOYyWYsEeswCnDHByUSPvJSN3bUowYOQiNzMX_j-RTIt39oWEW_48WdodFH0G8Es90p4mworTJHQI1wA/w640-h350/NK_Dam_June_5.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p>McBeth doesn't know what the brown spot is. <strike>Neither do I, exactly, but</strike> it seems connected to the <b>4 visible HIMARS rocket impacts very nearby. </b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_CpF4mlZn3JP_BkrzqPuo3MCWLi432-Dy8jZCZKtB78Ida9tY1PL7Aiod8BO9VCx8H3jlXDNM1A-wgPy_4s98FgYVR7ivkMUxxPSD9NmmwqT8PXVMyMbH6-EUePC3yZ5j8rmw2dVqkFWSanExvMLULSY9zzeqcZX3fZa3NBNY1hOv0PDRUSJgGYTnQQ/s1741/Screenshot%20(4673).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="939" data-original-width="1741" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_CpF4mlZn3JP_BkrzqPuo3MCWLi432-Dy8jZCZKtB78Ida9tY1PL7Aiod8BO9VCx8H3jlXDNM1A-wgPy_4s98FgYVR7ivkMUxxPSD9NmmwqT8PXVMyMbH6-EUePC3yZ5j8rmw2dVqkFWSanExvMLULSY9zzeqcZX3fZa3NBNY1hOv0PDRUSJgGYTnQQ/w640-h346/Screenshot%20(4673).png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">A closeup of the elongated impact of an arrival from the north - note some damage to the powerhouse building in the background, including windows out.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4nT__DqE6Br4Kq7YHbm3VTiS2z24mh54SfZnBPG1xa9ydnN1vhCC-CjMmfDzaPSvarAznwzChd54l62xYEWjDKFJEpot7br81ao6WNdiY-pJ1xTMUIySK3WQBE1UT6Tdbe5aSu97SFOfaYK-wX7YA62l6dZ5NBPJPQ7walQ1zrcAyCxoUsbBlBj6RjQ/s1729/Screenshot%20(4688).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="933" data-original-width="1729" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4nT__DqE6Br4Kq7YHbm3VTiS2z24mh54SfZnBPG1xa9ydnN1vhCC-CjMmfDzaPSvarAznwzChd54l62xYEWjDKFJEpot7br81ao6WNdiY-pJ1xTMUIySK3WQBE1UT6Tdbe5aSu97SFOfaYK-wX7YA62l6dZ5NBPJPQ7walQ1zrcAyCxoUsbBlBj6RjQ/w640-h346/Screenshot%20(4688).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Looking across the dam - some fragmentation damage on the opposite surface</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA5dHz8Q-4VJV_lJPDoxZs4Marzdzn5gWTMd4Jd6Jw5Wmi-fXapmAWffi0_jza4ixFuF-rWX1ksrQKhecXOBJo3gIBMMixXrSK-_EMiAQYqcYzMKnUGjt_gnk0XMO-IfnW9lFzkf8fC50P7bSOBAOzsEYl0CWnhHImrDXygIc862JNxO5nXqxO1GF0OQ/s1739/Screenshot%20(4689).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="935" data-original-width="1739" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA5dHz8Q-4VJV_lJPDoxZs4Marzdzn5gWTMd4Jd6Jw5Wmi-fXapmAWffi0_jza4ixFuF-rWX1ksrQKhecXOBJo3gIBMMixXrSK-_EMiAQYqcYzMKnUGjt_gnk0XMO-IfnW9lFzkf8fC50P7bSOBAOzsEYl0CWnhHImrDXygIc862JNxO5nXqxO1GF0OQ/w640-h344/Screenshot%20(4689).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>This damage was seemingly incurred in an attack on August 10. That day, <a href="https://t.me/rybar/36981">Rybar on Telegram</a> had video (stamped Rudenko, 3 frames shown above). This showed the new damage in some detail, as well as passing traffic, refuting Ukrainian claims to have destroyed the bridge. The visible hits were from just a few rockets, Rybar reported, with the rest intercepted by Russian Air Defense. <a href="https://t.me/boris_rozhin/60161">"Colonel Cassad" posted</a> a still shot from that video, noting the rockets' accuracy but weak explosive charge. "It can be seen that they were aiming at one specific span of the oversluice passage, and they were trying to drop the entire slab," but they failed. "I think that the consumption here was at least 2 full sets of HIMARS (i.e. 12 charges), and maybe three, because part was intercepted by air defense. In general, at least $1.8 million was injected - but the effect is doubtful."</p><p>Interestingly, a Russian-led modernization of 2 turbines began just before this, on August 7. (<a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/36204">https://t.me/militarydonetsk/36204</a>). It would be complicated.</p><p>I didn't find Ukrainian references to this attack of the 10th, but they boasted of an attack on the 12th leaving the road unusable. <a href="https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3549443-ukrainian-forces-struck-bridge-over-dam-in-nova-kakhovka.html">Ukrinform</a>: <b>"On August 12, Ukrainian defenders struck a road bridge over the dam in Nova Kakhovka, which was used by the invaders.</b> The spokesperson of the Operational Command South announced this, Ukrinform reports. ... Earlier, Kherson Regional Council deputy Serhii Khlan announced the destruction of this bridge. According to him, this is the last crossing in the region that could be used to transport equipment."</p><div><div><a href="https://t.me/Reality_Theories/8098">Eva K. Bartlett passed on</a> the following day: "The management of the Kakhovskaya HPP made a number of statements:</div><div><br /></div><div><b>- One turbine of the hydroelectric power plant is disabled after missile strikes from the APU;</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>- Shelling of the Kakhovskaya HPP by the Armed Forces of Ukraine can lead to a disaster at the Zaporizhzhya NPP; </b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>- The station is operating in emergency mode due to constant shelling."</b></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>Aug 13, video <a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/37145">https://t.me/militarydonetsk/37145</a></div></div><div><div>"As a result of regular shelling of the Kakhovka HPP with GMLRS missiles from the American HIMARS MLRS by the Ukrainian Armed Forces - in particular, the shelling that occurred on August 12, 2022, three of the six turbines of the hydroelectric power plant were stopped. The facility is in pre-emergency mode." (Maybe just one turbine plus the 2 down for modernization = 3 down total)</div></div><div><br /></div><div>How was a turbine shut down? <a href="https://t.me/izvestia/99951">In a video report,</a> "Izvestia correspondent Ivan Litomin showed the consequences of the APU's strike on the machine building of the Kakhovskaya HPP. Due to the shelling of the nationalists, the glass was broken, the fragments fell into the oil tank, after which two turbines had to be urgently turned off. Now the station is operating in emergency mode, the journalist said. ... "A couple more blows, and they can simply put her out of action." Video inside the powerhouse shows no visible damage, but a coated windowpane is shown on the floor, and external views show some missing panes at the NW end. </div><div><div><br /></div><div>"The journalist also said that the passing capacity of the bridge next to the hydroelectric power station has been restored. Civilian cars are already passing quietly." Impact location unclear, but on the roadway near the powerhouse, NW end - about where the August 10 attack happened. New damage across from the old ...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5sTprw2FlegI-OL9snoquMyAD_FOS6Sw8WQYPVmrzPYUlq8GPR2VqT34ROhRMLBXbZw1eWCt5Hc5eCtptTwfjDcss8zUh3ouVszpcm9eSgLyfXe5KGpcVGBVnEsUtpAoYjXMKGLv-3wYnVwvAEqrLrUkmQpDo0LG3pOepPq-TV8LuH_FpAQIwSiSsBg/s1917/Screenshot%20(4680).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1917" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5sTprw2FlegI-OL9snoquMyAD_FOS6Sw8WQYPVmrzPYUlq8GPR2VqT34ROhRMLBXbZw1eWCt5Hc5eCtptTwfjDcss8zUh3ouVszpcm9eSgLyfXe5KGpcVGBVnEsUtpAoYjXMKGLv-3wYnVwvAEqrLrUkmQpDo0LG3pOepPq-TV8LuH_FpAQIwSiSsBg/w640-h266/Screenshot%20(4680).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div>... new roadway damage and the whole area looking brownish, reporter with ill-fitting clothes ...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghExcrhLqrM8avqofVBCACtmtVzgi0-TCRmLY1ZzFYVY16aux3LEFY8AAe8Kvz-A9gj7GupOycSwYywaaCAdAs-XLE9NAh4vCJ5MVoWULQg1ckQv9WtQncCm5V0Os1B0DLSxu6BA5d8qd21d7rItb39uE4LbBKDYbfkg8VAQfxxFXwpZ7HeAbZaFSxFg/s1657/Screenshot%20(4682).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="923" data-original-width="1657" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghExcrhLqrM8avqofVBCACtmtVzgi0-TCRmLY1ZzFYVY16aux3LEFY8AAe8Kvz-A9gj7GupOycSwYywaaCAdAs-XLE9NAh4vCJ5MVoWULQg1ckQv9WtQncCm5V0Os1B0DLSxu6BA5d8qd21d7rItb39uE4LbBKDYbfkg8VAQfxxFXwpZ7HeAbZaFSxFg/w640-h356/Screenshot%20(4682).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Additional damage correlating with this appears in later satellite views - see below. There were also attacks on the dam reported on at least these dates: July 19, Aug. 21, 24, 29, October 1, November 6, 12. See list below. The last was most likely done by the Russians, and the rest by the Ukrainians.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 6/20: </b>a video of the dam taken in March shows the rust-colored patch is a number of rusty metal slats laid across more holes in the bridge. Of course. Why didn't I guess that? https://twitter.com/novakakhovka_ua/status/1634654270791249920</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFE93_hrZ-6IbBWtjGjQhIGdFC4JOgmWHga1DL-kWw4jSEkXcpXOVRU9E9gI6zey08Xi_TlfTPf8vCX2YgNMAKhvwLNrOFbMphkQg1lUr3yaagsYRRu32UUEWoUaqM6Z1U53d4_pt2FIOWny9Y2a9GhSGj4xif-GH9bPNCcCbqCW-KglRsi9hNnQdpXysI/s1920/Screenshot%20(4739).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFE93_hrZ-6IbBWtjGjQhIGdFC4JOgmWHga1DL-kWw4jSEkXcpXOVRU9E9gI6zey08Xi_TlfTPf8vCX2YgNMAKhvwLNrOFbMphkQg1lUr3yaagsYRRu32UUEWoUaqM6Z1U53d4_pt2FIOWny9Y2a9GhSGj4xif-GH9bPNCcCbqCW-KglRsi9hNnQdpXysI/w640-h360/Screenshot%20(4739).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Damage assessment: the 4 spots punctured on the 10th, soon patched over, form a unique pattern of 4 scars at the roadway's curve, which I located on a Maxar views of May 28, in the blue polygon below. Repaired damage from other attacks, perhaps all of them later, are traced in yellow here, including the "brown" spot and a damaged structure closer to the gates (likely Aug. 12 impact), and perhaps to the road on the other side and even the rail for moving the gantry cranes that open the gates, where a section of rail may be missing. </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSy5DjNNJ7ujsHhSwMu7wgKXTxQudLIEGI98DqDAtysz0fA6CccJ3KcAxIIwcYqN-6nbgdyAFNZXdQy9XJ8tPEPuMq7ZGp2-HeToYQ9Kcc9V010gPaeoY1TCzfXHkXiWvHJ8oiGfSoBNw-a6owZqpXQrP6I6h9jfGxoySJve3YXh6LDivHe5HYc1dphQ/s2116/NK_Dam_5-28-6-5_comp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="932" data-original-width="2116" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSy5DjNNJ7ujsHhSwMu7wgKXTxQudLIEGI98DqDAtysz0fA6CccJ3KcAxIIwcYqN-6nbgdyAFNZXdQy9XJ8tPEPuMq7ZGp2-HeToYQ9Kcc9V010gPaeoY1TCzfXHkXiWvHJ8oiGfSoBNw-a6owZqpXQrP6I6h9jfGxoySJve3YXh6LDivHe5HYc1dphQ/w640-h282/NK_Dam_5-28-6-5_comp.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div></div><div>The hits perforated the roadway so it would have broken away, if not for its mighty supports that were barely affected. But then these supports were seemingly washed loose and disappeared. One of the two appears misaligned already on the 28th (compare spacing of the green curves above). The, of course, the roadway finally fell, breaking at the perforations provided at great cost to US taxpayers. Only then was Ukraine's goal achieved. But then a few days later the whole dam collapsed.</div><p>It's likely one of these attacks that damaged a sluice gate, as Kovalchuk told the Washington Post ("The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal")</p><div><div>An <a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/37145">August 13 video</a> (cited above) shows one of the gates bottom-to-top, with no leaking holes visible in the gate, but near the top are some possible light marks from shelling nearby (pink boxes), and some definite marks on the structure above that (red), including in a pipe of unclear importance. The location of this gate is unclear, but probably close to the August 10 attack to knock out windows on the powerhouse. Likely spot indicated in map of attacks below.</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ-Q3b2dp70gR8uHm5DsTUdztExWTNyfoManp5Ysbz_QlgvZ3XiJRbHzuG-GxTotHsKxbZ7Ve4hDLfyAfIOhuieoVsT9oCw7kVx-kiRUsAmYCGZczQUTK0a_67NsI7UYqIvyY9QUl75VNn7YD65LXSr9A_qLYmWvIE0XC8PSQMXOfkDaFl4KVKJUUafA/s1920/Screenshot%20(4676)b.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1920" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ-Q3b2dp70gR8uHm5DsTUdztExWTNyfoManp5Ysbz_QlgvZ3XiJRbHzuG-GxTotHsKxbZ7Ve4hDLfyAfIOhuieoVsT9oCw7kVx-kiRUsAmYCGZczQUTK0a_67NsI7UYqIvyY9QUl75VNn7YD65LXSr9A_qLYmWvIE0XC8PSQMXOfkDaFl4KVKJUUafA/w640-h266/Screenshot%20(4676)b.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The repeated shelling it's troubling, but it's unlikely to have caused or even contributed to the collapse. Nothing seen comes close to threatening this massive structure. Even the mechanism for raising the gates is unlikely to be fazed by shrapnel of this size. But like the snipers, this shelling of the dam couldn't have helped matters.</p><p><b>June 20 update: </b><a href="https://twitter.com/novakakhovka_ua/status/1634654270791249920">video</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1634889809414987777">analysis</a> from March show a heavily damaged gate spraying water, and that it's gate #1 closest to the Russian side and to those repeated roadway attacks. Props to "Diagonal" for the this tip (see comments). As far back as Nov. 12, there's turbulence from this leakage, but no such sign on October 18 (see images used above). This gate was probably damaged in between those dates.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-pYRiPOUbRe0z3xdL1w28RnzvITUwD5icq8WbUW3__JuybHQMBhqsxSxOrieXKh7JUhTVCgxPv2fOAsmYUpJ85QAVjoVWEryCf-PtaPnpQj6y3_aX041_vw9a1en-PrXym1bYI3AkQ54n0xVkZuYNpuXlBiWHWjxyoVv2WN_xsJbDSCeSVKi2m1VVxy0a/s900/NK_Dam_gate_1_damaged.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="900" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-pYRiPOUbRe0z3xdL1w28RnzvITUwD5icq8WbUW3__JuybHQMBhqsxSxOrieXKh7JUhTVCgxPv2fOAsmYUpJ85QAVjoVWEryCf-PtaPnpQj6y3_aX041_vw9a1en-PrXym1bYI3AkQ54n0xVkZuYNpuXlBiWHWjxyoVv2WN_xsJbDSCeSVKi2m1VVxy0a/w640-h480/NK_Dam_gate_1_damaged.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Deliberate Flooding?</span></b></p><div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVSefqoN7VQReZQTuBbrzHDWVvGOWccCUufH5yq6hnRiWLMN3dQWR8Ua0dckO-PPDb49d6VYtY8KSzJMCmBSmUv6SIeIYkXprmWrs6OwavMj_bOqmgK3GhMMoWEw-yNexSlRLzPtH9OCZaD_4XAhO6gfG3TwFnMqQgJx-LFOjDzmyn0Y5ymdPNkh9OOQ/s643/Screenshot%20(4704).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="418" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVSefqoN7VQReZQTuBbrzHDWVvGOWccCUufH5yq6hnRiWLMN3dQWR8Ua0dckO-PPDb49d6VYtY8KSzJMCmBSmUv6SIeIYkXprmWrs6OwavMj_bOqmgK3GhMMoWEw-yNexSlRLzPtH9OCZaD_4XAhO6gfG3TwFnMqQgJx-LFOjDzmyn0Y5ymdPNkh9OOQ/w260-h400/Screenshot%20(4704).png" width="260" /></a></div>Did Ukraine open their own dams upstream <b>after the dam collapse</b> to worsen the flooding for their own advantage? <a href="https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1666510530444402708">Mikael Valtersson on Twitter</a> made this claim, alongside a dated video of a gushing dam that can't help (<a href="https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1667745412265168896">I asked for clarification</a> if he was just confused or had a solid source). </div><div><br /></div><div>There were claims they had flooded the reservoir before, in April and May, as water levels at the dam in May and June were by far the highest they had been in many years, perhaps ever. But then the Russians controlled the sluice gates (or floodgates) to let the excess pass on by. So if it built up that badly, it would be their fault. <p>But it seems they DID open the floodgates as wide as they could and still couldn't keep the reservoir much below 100% full. The dated video - from April - might help illustrate how this came to be.</p><p>All spring, we can see open floodgates pouring water in every 2023 image I've seen. That seems unusual (no release in any of the historical images below). Perhaps 6-8 of the 28 gates are open in most views, by the width of turbulent water, but only 1-2 points are visibly draining on the other side. However many gates were opened, the reservoir appears to be draining almost as fast as it could; the outlet side appears flooded all Spring. <b>It might be the river that was past capacity, and the dam just had to follow suit. </b>Already in March, some islands usually present are submerged (below: Google Earth historical views of springs past vs. March 3). </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI8M-_WBMPsf2dTYeplothqJzolIY0zRVyotw1Yv-FYriN6xQ7eHPCfCXs9gNrM3-OU-mM22z56GFHhVv45KoZnzGSGLkZdPU39pAnk9LKnCWIsDSAdcRTsjXvR1ZKjNvL6oNW0MjwwhYB3mxWh01FIkAMchBQEQ3Quvsu-_An1aCr33zRwIkDADXCDw/s915/Screenshot%20(4690).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="915" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI8M-_WBMPsf2dTYeplothqJzolIY0zRVyotw1Yv-FYriN6xQ7eHPCfCXs9gNrM3-OU-mM22z56GFHhVv45KoZnzGSGLkZdPU39pAnk9LKnCWIsDSAdcRTsjXvR1ZKjNvL6oNW0MjwwhYB3mxWh01FIkAMchBQEQ3Quvsu-_An1aCr33zRwIkDADXCDw/w640-h462/Screenshot%20(4690).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>In May, the water is deeper yet, and the flow guide was displaced. It was deeper yet on June 1-5 as more supports and the roadway section are washed clean away; just some green tree tops of those islands stick out now. <b>And all this while levels behind the dam remain at decade high-levels and spilling over.</b> <b>This is not normal. </b></p><p>Water levels, 2016-2023 - <a href="https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/L_kakhovka?lang=en">Hydroweb (theia-land.fr)</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQZnoJiTgr5C08UXHGHP9uVxpAGN2_NNXZpdYH5akcQiADJCnajum_7wgqDE0cbFZO2yoIF5G4dh3X-SRL5yAx0hFAF0rBlJCfbooLRrdM6_fnm7m8C83eyDIQI_H_sZ_GqgYg8bEc6X10A6oB06fOKB_vW2-RbnFhRgTmpg3SvqgvFBzoD-kgwvDKTQ/s1395/Screenshot%20(4692).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="975" data-original-width="1395" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQZnoJiTgr5C08UXHGHP9uVxpAGN2_NNXZpdYH5akcQiADJCnajum_7wgqDE0cbFZO2yoIF5G4dh3X-SRL5yAx0hFAF0rBlJCfbooLRrdM6_fnm7m8C83eyDIQI_H_sZ_GqgYg8bEc6X10A6oB06fOKB_vW2-RbnFhRgTmpg3SvqgvFBzoD-kgwvDKTQ/w640-h448/Screenshot%20(4692).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>With Ukrainian help upstream, levels reached 14m in February, their lowest level by far in 7 years, as rain refused to fall, or was stored up for some reason. At 6:40 in the video, McBeth explains "you want levels to be lower in winter because you have to be prepared for the spring snow melt." Most years they did not want it that low, and it was kept between 15.5 and 16.5m year-round. </p><p>What was different in 2023? Russian management. Some call them incompetent. Some note they were beleaguered and attacked. But the new management is clearly the initial cause of whatever happened.</p><p>From that winter low, there was just a little water accumulated to the end of March, raising the level to 14.5m. Input must have been high, since output was high by March 3, as noted. Maybe March 3 was a misleading picture, but I suspect it looked similar on most days - always draining. Maybe they were dealing with excessive flow and, worried about the coming flow being even worse, labored to keep space available. </p><p>Then some new and heavy rains came and/or a stored mass of water was released over the weeks of April and early May, likely exceeding release capacity so it built up to a maximum level of 17.5 meters on May 8. After that, <b>levels didn't rise because they couldn't - it was 100% full and spilling over. </b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4EuP2sFyt8lTNqtWui8Sf3LuXryR0pMpdBeEaDAQtdNo5tkIr6AgAt1jdA5gG53v0iifpuhOikAvT1ejKxxwxKBsOvBvR3g6PoPXGHs0AvBBRfT95sqQ6eMSNpMkvG7TqdqdYWumRL2tETgsIikdd3e1ibPFqAWrPzxwf6x3A-yf0nmxR7vW7jnhRBw/s1284/Screenshot%20(4693).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="1284" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4EuP2sFyt8lTNqtWui8Sf3LuXryR0pMpdBeEaDAQtdNo5tkIr6AgAt1jdA5gG53v0iifpuhOikAvT1ejKxxwxKBsOvBvR3g6PoPXGHs0AvBBRfT95sqQ6eMSNpMkvG7TqdqdYWumRL2tETgsIikdd3e1ibPFqAWrPzxwf6x3A-yf0nmxR7vW7jnhRBw/w640-h324/Screenshot%20(4693).png" width="640" /></a></div><br />For whatever reason, this level is usually avoided. Once in 2021 it peaked near 17m and was soon corrected. It's never filled well past that and left that way for a month.</div><div><br /></div><div>Output increased and/or input decreased over May so the level held steady around 17.36m, aside from another peak to 17.54 on the 21st. There was a slight decrease to about 17.3m achieved at the end of May to June 4. But to do that, they exceeded the river's normal capacity, raising the water level probably over a meter. <b>To drain any faster would risk area-wide flooding. Still, they couldn't keep up, and at the end it was spilling over again. </b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>So the Russians might have failed to manage a completely unmanageable situation - they released too much water, and also not enough water. </b>They also released it from too few gates in the same area, for one part they could have managed better. But there were the snipers. And <b>why</b> was there <i>so much</i> water to deal with? </div><div><br /></div><div>McBeth suspects scouring from this excessive release wound up undercutting the dam. If so, it seems Ukraine contributed greatly to that outcome. But as I explained above, it's not clear to me how - or if - this chronic flooding of the reservoir contributed to the dam's failure. I see no reason to expect hydrodynamic scouring on either side to undercut the dam, and these downstream structures vulnerable to it should not be propping it up in any way. </div><div><br /></div><div>It may not be the why the dam collapsed, but like the snipers and the shelling, any deliberate over-flooding couldn't have helped matters. It's not clear how much Ukraine deliberately contributed to this disastrous situation. This question merits some study (e.g. how does reservoir level compare to actual precipitation vs. deliberately altered release patterns?) It probably shows hostile intent on Ukraine's part, and that intent that might entail the rest of the explanation. </div><div><p>The possible deliberate flooding, the rocket attacks, the sniper threat, and other possible measures ... was Russia negligent in allowing these Ukrainian actions? If so, and these things caused or contributed to the disaster, then they are to blame in that regard. As McBeth says: "if incompetence or negligence causes a natural disaster, it's no different than if you planted a bomb." </p><p>Otherwise, something yet unexplained - or not understood by me - probably has to be involved. It was most likely intentional, and I could see either side doing it. As far as I can tell, the Russians DID plant a bomb for some twisted reason. Or they just mucked up managing the needlessly difficult situation. I don't know. But those are some thoughts and observations that might help to reach the truth. </p><div><b>Appendix: Attacks List</b></div><div><b>Map of attacks</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHwiycw2AyVmHUaMzdbDiCfrTGhEvoV2qbmm5wOr5kOsUsYqu71nLJQEexUraK9NKt6qHnEYcXEd5lelJA21pBZDzNqWp2yR7vfti8noh0Zv4fX6ByodbdmsXXU7oEiGdsO6urwqaTpeodhMeVGCVnQO1WKXdr39ByCC0128wp1yx4OJSGu3AV-3pdkw/s1200/NK%20dam%20attacks%20map.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1200" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHwiycw2AyVmHUaMzdbDiCfrTGhEvoV2qbmm5wOr5kOsUsYqu71nLJQEexUraK9NKt6qHnEYcXEd5lelJA21pBZDzNqWp2yR7vfti8noh0Zv4fX6ByodbdmsXXU7oEiGdsO6urwqaTpeodhMeVGCVnQO1WKXdr39ByCC0128wp1yx4OJSGu3AV-3pdkw/w640-h384/NK%20dam%20attacks%20map.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">PERMANENT MISSION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION TO THE UNITED NATIONS</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://russiaun.ru/en/news/100623_k">https://russiaun.ru/en/news/100623_k</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This June 10 letter lists Ukrainian rocket attacks on the dam on these dates: July 11, 24, 26, 29/30 August 5, 7, 9, 12, 18, 19, 21, 24, 27, 28, 29, 30, September 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 10, October 18, 24, November 6, NOT on Nov. 12, and none listed since then. Not even on June 6. Total: 25 attacks.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">"Overall, during the summer and fall of 2022, the total of more than 300 missiles were launched from MLRS HIMARS alone against the Kakhovka HPP." Not all of them hit their target.</div></div><p><b>Sources (incomplete - mostly with visuals)</b></p><p><b>July 19: </b><a href="https://t.me/izvestia/97172">Izvestia</a>: "the very fact of shelling a purely "civilian" object once again showed Ukraine as a terrorist state." Later, August 10, <a href="https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1557384679166283779">it was noted</a> that such reports "accidentally revealed destroyed Russian military equipment placed there, including a valuable R-439-MD2 satcom vehicle and 5 KAMAZ-based vehicles."</p><p><b>August 10: </b>covered above. Links again: <a href="https://t.me/boris_rozhin/60161">Col. Cassad</a> (pic + opinion, cited above) - <a href="https://t.me/rybar/36981">Rybar</a> video, cited above</p><p><b>August 12: </b><a href="https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3549443-ukrainian-forces-struck-bridge-over-dam-in-nova-kakhovka.html">UKRINFORM</a>: On August 12, Ukrainian defenders struck a road bridge over the dam in Nova Kakhovka, which was used by the invaders. The spokesperson of the Operational Command South announced this, Ukrinform reports. ... Earlier, Kherson Regional Council deputy Serhii Khlan announced the destruction of this bridge. According to him, this is the last crossing in the region that could be used to transport equipment.</p><div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1559288642300006401">https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1559288642300006401</a></div><div>Planet satellite imagery from August 13 shows the damaged Nova Kakhovka rail and road bridge.</div><div>Ukraine hit very precisely 2 places along the bridge. </div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><a href="https://t.me/Reality_Theories/8098">https://t.me/Reality_Theories/8098</a> (cited above): One generator down, "The station is operating in emergency mode due to constant shelling."</div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/37145">https://t.me/militarydonetsk/37145</a> (cited above)</div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><a href="https://t.me/izvestia/99951">https://t.me/izvestia/99951</a> (cited above) </div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>August 21, 24</b></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/cryptobarbossa_/status/1563224038667071491">https://twitter.com/cryptobarbossa_/status/1563224038667071491</a></div><div>NOVA KAKHOVKA DAM/LOCK: Russian convoy was targeted while attempting crossing the Lock. Recently Lock was targeted 2 times during 24/08 and once on 21/08. I assume that here we see the result of latest attack.</div><div>Views show major damage, flipped military vehicles and in some view, killed Russian soldiers. The location is on the road to the dam, at the twin buildings flanking the eastern canal.</div><div>video </div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1563214188054548481">https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1563214188054548481</a></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/new_geopolitics/status/1563223416722767873">https://twitter.com/new_geopolitics/status/1563223416722767873</a></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>August 29</b></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1564555989793357829">https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1564555989793357829</a></div><div>Smoke is rising from the canal section of the Nova Kakhovka bridge - not the Hydroelectric Power Plant, which is further along the bridge. #Ukraine's hit this bridge area numerous times & each time made sure it missed the hydroelectric dam.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>October 1</b></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1576214148991488000">NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 on Twitter: "Smoke rising from the Novaya Kakhovka lock is visible in today's satellite imagery. https://t.co/tZDXmSKnEX" / Twitter</a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>November 6:</b> "Nov 6 (Reuters) - Ukraine's Russian-held Nova Kakhovka dam was damaged in shelling by Ukrainian forces, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday, citing emergency services."</div><div><div><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-russian-held-nova-kakhovka-dam-damaged-shelling-russian-media-2022-11-06/">https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-russian-held-nova-kakhovka-dam-damaged-shelling-russian-media-2022-11-06/</a></div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>November 12: </b></div><div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/EUFreeCitizen/status/1591336410598051840">https://twitter.com/EUFreeCitizen/status/1591336410598051840</a></div><p> RV journalists confirmed the blowing up of the bridge across the #Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. This is first photo of the bridge this morning. The 3 bridge crossing the #Dnieper have now been destroyed by the russians</p></div><div><a href="https://t.me/boris_rozhin/70003">https://t.me/boris_rozhin/70003</a></div><div>Damage to the dam of the Kakhovskaya HPP.</div><div>So far, the damage is not enough for a big flood, but in the course of subsequent hostilities it cannot be ruled out that it will still be broken.</div><div>Nov. 12 Maxar views (one shown above, one below). </div><div><br /></div><div>Ryan McBeth shows a Nov. 11 image with the dam's northeast (Ukrainian) end intact and one gantry crane at an open gate near that north end. He correctly notes an attack on the 12th hit there and destroyed the road surface, finally making the dam unpassable as a bridge. He called this a Russian planned demolition to prevent a Ukrainian crossing, and that might be so. Earlier, Ukraine was trying to disrupt this road, but by then "The situation ... is getting worse," wrote the pro-Russian <a href="https://t.me/WarInMyEyes/1666">"WarInMyEyes" on Telegram</a>. "The RF Armed Forces have completely withdrawn their forces from the right bank of the Dnieper River. As soon as our guys left, the Antonovsky bridge and the bridge to the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station were immediately blown up. The railway bridge, which is located next to Antonovsky, was also destroyed."</div><div><br /></div><div>This fits the scene. A second view of Nov. 12 is zoomed on the damage and the north shore, dense with trenches (Russian?), shelling craters and other signs of battle, with the road to the dam now severed and, as the other image shows above, the gantry cranes both pulled back as far as possible from Ukrainian guns.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiESHWXGZqMzkzOT1292NhAeuqnpO7R7-lrFQjyIQxTtwXAC2E74vQHfJgFq4l-fckFuyYXI4sdQphculql8MCDKeQvH-3JH_TJxPcVxiom9wcdscKRMT_SUVedZUTQk6BI6KeSHGqZysPwEMJPp5aAbmQtdsUZkOKrXgFFrWoG0wG98OJkDq9zR9raZg/s1280/NK_Dam_11-12-22_B.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="869" data-original-width="1280" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiESHWXGZqMzkzOT1292NhAeuqnpO7R7-lrFQjyIQxTtwXAC2E74vQHfJgFq4l-fckFuyYXI4sdQphculql8MCDKeQvH-3JH_TJxPcVxiom9wcdscKRMT_SUVedZUTQk6BI6KeSHGqZysPwEMJPp5aAbmQtdsUZkOKrXgFFrWoG0wG98OJkDq9zR9raZg/w640-h434/NK_Dam_11-12-22_B.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div></div></div></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-47638275394880674602023-05-07T03:11:00.002-07:002023-05-07T03:41:48.477-07:00Terrorists Shell Donetsk Again<p>May 7,2023 </p><p>I've been taking a break, but <a href="https://twitter.com/AyazK100/status/1652001996113842176">AyazK on Twitter</a> got me to look into this shelling attack on Donetsk back on April 28 that killed at least 7 civilians on a bus, including a young girl, and damaged a hospital.</p><p>The last Donetsk attack <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/02/killing-ambulance-crew-more-western.html">I covered here</a> in March - not the most recent attack (it continues daily) - had an ambulance crew killed, in a strike apparently from the Ukrainian-held northwest. That's the most common direction of attack, but other directions come up, always where Ukraine's foreign-backed Banderite terrorists bent on ethnic cleansing continue to operate. </p><p><a href="https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/16188">As reported by Donetsk mayor Alexei Kulemzin</a>:</p><p>Kuibyshev and Kiev regions were subjected to massive shelling by the Ukrainian Nazis.</p><p>10 rockets were fired from the MLRS (PC30). Arrivals are reported in the Donetsk City area. Details are being specified.</p><p><a href="https://t.me/chp_donetskv/49875">CHP Donetsk Z</a>: </p><p>According to preliminary data, seven people died due to falling into a minibus, one of them was a child. More than 10 people are in the hospital. According to stringer_donetsk, at least 9 people died on the bus;</p><p>- The AFU hit the hospital, the park, residential buildings. Several cars, a grocery store, and the Olimpiyskiy stadium were damaged;</p><p>- the only MRI machine in the DPR was also damaged;</p><p>- more than 10 rockets from the MLRS were fired at the central districts of the city. They used Slovak high-explosive rockets of the JROF-M rocket, TASS was told in the power structures of the DPR;</p><p>- the shelling became the fourth in a day, in 2.5 hours the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired a total of 32 shells in Donetsk, TASS reports.</p><p><b>Bus Impact</b></p><p><a href="https://t.me/Reality_Theories/12228"></a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGmJShXD8gKyJ-plT54FPqdTO0oAsJTP-GoPEOJ90puI5PCrlN8cGHUYeyxvl7IkIlzhQayfEZDPQyRFc0s3A6dupm3BphGktzcZJf6Fl6ynKlFjiZ0gLdPVelnmrn9MOyBUa6W_9e-a0HQsyOLJDmLaSl-EoE6mYCIKTCesrfXOIr_WLrtYBzhA0tqg/s1280/photo_2023-05-06_20-16-28.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1280" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGmJShXD8gKyJ-plT54FPqdTO0oAsJTP-GoPEOJ90puI5PCrlN8cGHUYeyxvl7IkIlzhQayfEZDPQyRFc0s3A6dupm3BphGktzcZJf6Fl6ynKlFjiZ0gLdPVelnmrn9MOyBUa6W_9e-a0HQsyOLJDmLaSl-EoE6mYCIKTCesrfXOIr_WLrtYBzhA0tqg/w640-h480/photo_2023-05-06_20-16-28.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><a href="https://t.me/Reality_Theories/12228">Eva K. Bartlett</a>: an 8-year-old girl died along with her grandmother on the bus, with 7 others, killed by "the cluster rocket that Slovakia supplied to the Otano-Ukrainian army." I can't verify the weapon except that I think it was a standard HE warhead with one concentrated blast, not cluster bomblets. But the girl, according to others (e.g. <a href="https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1652352006844022790">Dana on Twitter</a>), did die. She was named Macha (Maria). <p></p><p>Scene photos: <a href="https://t.me/dnronline/96672">https://t.me/dnronline/96672</a></p><p>Denials: Kyiv issued no explicit denials, but implicitly it always does, categorically denying that they ever target civilians or their infrastructure like this. They suggest the Russians or DPR are shelling their own people - almost daily, for 9 years now - just to make Ukraine look bad. It has the effect of punishing the people for choosing separatism, just like many in Ukraine's new Banderite military would like to do. They say the "Russians" do it for them.</p><p>Alexei Navalny's chief of staff Leonid Volkov <a href="https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1651905566401282048">piped up on Twitter to make this case</a>. After an alleged and denied Russian attack on civilians in Uman, "something is blown up in Donetsk on the same day. Well, to interrupt the summons and shout: "and they beat us (too)!". This has already been worked out to automatism. The automatism of the dead."</p><p>Fascist Alex ꑭ Bezfam <a href="https://twitter.com/alex_bezfam/status/1651892676013309953">on Twitter</a> explained how "Footed creatures" (meaning Russians - subhumans to him) powerfully fired at the center of the city. As usual, the outgoing ones were heard well." That view was supported with <a href="https://twitter.com/orkam_net/status/1651929683112370177">a reply</a> from balalaika🇺🇦 @orkam_net whose bio is "I hate orcs [Russians]." That mindset does NOT set them up to be correct. The location is right, around 72/74 Universytets'ka St. However, the call that the rocket came from the SE, where Russians/DPR forces are, is done backward. It occasionally is, and such people take those readings as valid and as stand-ins for all other cases, so they can "know" the DPR or Russians are behind all this shelling.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTa6XDa1aiAOctm6FT81x5rPGen4OIRl4GNvIzBeu-cJcVm_jtF5oFykCSkfcIVQqijgRFlJawCo7zczM-CDvQzzsrN1oPf4RPil5GtBVzdX5D1yrAccUoQrNwAZcSKml_aT1rgFaTIBHU2uFHvrjJmrZp8NLt6LozFGmvZ348jB10GUxtpWSaQ_XShg/s695/Screenshot%20(4640).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="397" data-original-width="695" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTa6XDa1aiAOctm6FT81x5rPGen4OIRl4GNvIzBeu-cJcVm_jtF5oFykCSkfcIVQqijgRFlJawCo7zczM-CDvQzzsrN1oPf4RPil5GtBVzdX5D1yrAccUoQrNwAZcSKml_aT1rgFaTIBHU2uFHvrjJmrZp8NLt6LozFGmvZ348jB10GUxtpWSaQ_XShg/w640-h366/Screenshot%20(4640).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>That photo wasn't very clear with the mud and water reflecting a slate-gray sky, and it seems to make sense that the bus ahead would be damaged. But there is a rough semicircle of puddles on the far side of the elongated crater. Here's a photo of DPR investigator reading it right - the opposite way, from the Ukrainian-held NW - largely down the street, but a bit left-to-right (source: <a href="https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/14818">JCC on Telegram</a>). </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3Bwci2ffFyZWeIglf9M8tNj7RvYySe8e2dwAQdMN6_iaqDRJ9pn3KcfzfOgQzaE1r5XcV4aMPgdPkU7-GAqBG2VJMo9eRG0kSqPQEi2RN3aQEb360I8AfQZoER844IDPQKyP170S-eNHwh2vzNSQhsQeesxrjOUHS5eTOHrp0GiwjkQtx9DeHOUSQeQ/s1280/photo_2023-04-28_12-06-17.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="960" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3Bwci2ffFyZWeIglf9M8tNj7RvYySe8e2dwAQdMN6_iaqDRJ9pn3KcfzfOgQzaE1r5XcV4aMPgdPkU7-GAqBG2VJMo9eRG0kSqPQEi2RN3aQEb360I8AfQZoER844IDPQKyP170S-eNHwh2vzNSQhsQeesxrjOUHS5eTOHrp0GiwjkQtx9DeHOUSQeQ/w480-h640/photo_2023-04-28_12-06-17.jpg" width="480" /></a></div><p>The splash pattern of fragments hitting the pavement on the underside (orange arc here) is also on the back side, pointing back to the origin. This clarifies the point. Some higher back-side fragments flew a ways to the NW before damaging the bus and setting it ablaze. Still angling up, it can be seen some tore through the roof. If it had come in the other way, its higher-angled forward fragments would surely have passed well over the bus at that distance.</p><p><b>Hospital Attack</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsKNxRYN7bkepVg9uRfgjTepUa1EjBPsx90tRuLVudZsOJal5FcPdmyhOsUwuYIkNt7ayslLHwHAe0Un8VoA7gpsN_z0nFrGQBfF0qamop7eTT82gTIqqyVzayufsjAv7IlWn8DnvDhFE4b-SBFg8XFjxzUD1fNdW75AnV6keFw6UNhNCRV6nEH3UNXQ/s960/Screenshot%20(4637).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="960" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsKNxRYN7bkepVg9uRfgjTepUa1EjBPsx90tRuLVudZsOJal5FcPdmyhOsUwuYIkNt7ayslLHwHAe0Un8VoA7gpsN_z0nFrGQBfF0qamop7eTT82gTIqqyVzayufsjAv7IlWn8DnvDhFE4b-SBFg8XFjxzUD1fNdW75AnV6keFw6UNhNCRV6nEH3UNXQ/w400-h225/Screenshot%20(4637).png" width="400" /></a></div><a href="https://twitter.com/PLnewstoday/status/1651912852884652039">Patrick Lancaster</a>: "At least 10 civilians injured as a result of a rocket hitting the traumatology hospital during the mass rocket barrage of Donetsk Donetsk that killed at least 7 including children and injured many."<p></p>This was said to damage or destroy the only MRI scanner in the DPR, further complicating cancer diagnoses and such. To be fair, it doesn't look badly damaged in its important parts, but it wasn't for lack of trying. <p>Internal views: </p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1651970905252278272">https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1651970905252278272</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/ARTESOSCURASBOO/status/1652622366533402625">https://twitter.com/ARTESOSCURASBOO/status/1652622366533402625</a> </p><p>There's a damaged interior wall across from that entry hole. The path between them is almost across the room or perpendicular to the walls, with the munition trending just a bit to its left. But what direction is that?</p><p>External views: </p><p>Lancaster, above</p><p><a href="https://t.me/dnronline/96724">https://t.me/dnronline/96724</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1651922847059648513">https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1651922847059648513</a></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/PadreEmerito/status/1651983895519191041">https://twitter.com/PadreEmerito/status/1651983895519191041</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZJeNSOFRsSaDdng2QvbSwmY0Xf9J-b6pZ0uC1tN8KOoJaymhm2Y8NU6xyfb7dxgUmLXk98NaChP1rzhqayB_9cA76bLSU3SgxU6GUBQkGrZEVmd-QuEcGfg3OcKV5BDwOEjJfOfl290aZ2ulTNvPvuClz7XCUl6WqnTn1umKtUIHxj36nOuvpdeAwHA/s1398/photo_2023-05-06_10-52-09.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1282" data-original-width="1398" height="586" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZJeNSOFRsSaDdng2QvbSwmY0Xf9J-b6pZ0uC1tN8KOoJaymhm2Y8NU6xyfb7dxgUmLXk98NaChP1rzhqayB_9cA76bLSU3SgxU6GUBQkGrZEVmd-QuEcGfg3OcKV5BDwOEjJfOfl290aZ2ulTNvPvuClz7XCUl6WqnTn1umKtUIHxj36nOuvpdeAwHA/w640-h586/photo_2023-05-06_10-52-09.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>That happens to be a spot I know. It's the only spot at the hospital with these features, including an external covered structure, a unique saw-horse, 3 arches and another wing to the left, and a 4-story section to the right, with some damage near the top (bottom left view above). This is a NNW-facing wall of the hospital a meter or two from a spot hit back on December 24 (same upper damage visible in top left view). <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/12/donetsk-christmas-shelling-16-25.html">https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/12/donetsk-christmas-shelling-16-25.html</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvCuWX_zu0HwTIGb_d8YWz32yTTHpHdFX6y71HSSD1dt9pTIUFVbyz9S8ptunM13YgaVmPUhQwTB8_rNlCiuEygzKznZ6AggcLFn1sh-xUPQ-CgN298lGyfVEZNluXRxEN6ZIi1jXJ9xzZ34seKXMogo-AwUsihPVPQbJBCwwrjMbgRyG9gmMufvYNgg/s1774/Screenshot%20(3637).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1048" data-original-width="1774" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvCuWX_zu0HwTIGb_d8YWz32yTTHpHdFX6y71HSSD1dt9pTIUFVbyz9S8ptunM13YgaVmPUhQwTB8_rNlCiuEygzKznZ6AggcLFn1sh-xUPQ-CgN298lGyfVEZNluXRxEN6ZIi1jXJ9xzZ34seKXMogo-AwUsihPVPQbJBCwwrjMbgRyG9gmMufvYNgg/w640-h378/Screenshot%20(3637).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>It wasn't clear before what was behind the wall that was not punctured in that attack. But this only MRI scanner is probably what the foreign-backed terrorists were aiming for then, and they finally hit it now, with more enabled and ignored genocidal terrorism.</p><p><b>Other</b></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/PLnewstoday/status/1651915800406548483">Patrick Lancaster video</a>: More civilian vehicles destroyed during the mass rocket barrage of center Donetsk by Ukrainian forces today that killed at least 7 including children and injured many.</p><p>This spot in on Universytets'ka St one block north of the bus impact - a new pizza place to the left (added since 2011 street view) has high, scattered marks - partly the forward direction from an impact somewhere in this parking lot. That's somewhat down the street SE, or from the NW or similar.</p><p>Stadium: <a href="https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/14828">https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/14828</a></p><p>Soil spreads largely towards the camera, away from the ... structure there, and probably a bit right-to-left. That's on the west side, so this projectile came partly from the west, and probably the north. Best guess: northwest like the others. </p><p><b>Overview</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix0if8jqBoFRkw7kDTgxrxWGduTi-vCSyItfjJE7699zyh-nq65xuRMSHjmvW3JQYyjnYiGVY-nXU_eXy1R1r4FW2WZdk94QbjF4Lapt1O4wiC4pzOXFqHLXpwg05yCs9Mah47du2rXSOvJn4o8yKoMVmkgmURC1c3jCXw43VmYItXEpyfiPzx2WkYSg/s1832/Screenshot%20(4644).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="766" data-original-width="1832" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix0if8jqBoFRkw7kDTgxrxWGduTi-vCSyItfjJE7699zyh-nq65xuRMSHjmvW3JQYyjnYiGVY-nXU_eXy1R1r4FW2WZdk94QbjF4Lapt1O4wiC4pzOXFqHLXpwg05yCs9Mah47du2rXSOvJn4o8yKoMVmkgmURC1c3jCXw43VmYItXEpyfiPzx2WkYSg/w640-h268/Screenshot%20(4644).png" width="640" /></a></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-9640162600167886552023-03-20T15:57:00.018-07:002023-03-24T04:22:24.236-07:00How SITU Twisted the Maidan Sniper Massacre<p><b>March 20, 2023</b></p><p><b>Last edits March 24 - some updates re:Dmytriv in progress</b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Intro to Sniper Questions</span></b></p><p>Ukraine became such a great democracy to defend from Russia only in early 2014, after a "Revolution of Dignity." The pinnacle of this was when the previous government of Viktor Yanukovych was removed over accusations of mass murder. His security forces allegedly fired on the people around the central Maidan square in several episodes, killing over 100 protesters - the "Heavenly Hundred" - and a reported 18 police officers. The bulk of the protesters were killed the morning of February 20, reportedly by police snipers on the ground, who were seen firing their weapons. But there were widespread reports of mysterious shooters playing a part, from the surrounding buildings that had come under control of the protesters and organized street thugs and their allies like Svoboda, Right Sector, and assorted, murkier foreign agents. </p><p>This massacre was an immediate reason early elections were called as President Yanukovych was denounced, sanctioned, and swiftly chased from the country - reportedly after assassination attempts. It's part of why his party of Regions had its headquarters torched on Feb. 20, by an armed mob (who reportedly beat an IT worker there to death). It's part of why the Regions party was soon illegalized, along with the Communist party, and a slew of opposition parties since. It allowed a bold new program in Ukraine, dedicated to fighting "Russian domination" and "corruption," while embracing "Democratic, European values" and striving towards "Euro-Atlantic integration." As a guiding spirit, they chose anti-Russian national hero and Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera.</p><p>That snipers episode was far from the only factor in this, but it was at the time crucial in shaping opinions, especially abroad, to favor this transition. It's a big part of why separatists in Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, and elsewhere were seen either as a Russian hoax or as "terrorists" with no right to reject thew new program, It's a big part of why Ukraine's new government was blessed and armed to wage civil war on the separatists, and why Russia wasn't allowed to intervene to defend them. It's part of why Ukraine is now worth risking global nuclear war over. </p><p>And this geopolitically useful outcome is why we're led to turn a blind eye to the snipers massacre underpinning it, to unquestioningly accept the new government's creation myth. </p><p>But questions were raised at the time, from many quarters, and many questions have been answered since. Professor Ivan Katchanovski, a renowned scholar of Ukrainian affairs, is one who has followed closely. A political scientist at the University of Ottawa, Prof. Katchanovski "had marshaled overwhelming evidence to conclude Maidan protesters were killed by pro-coup snipers," as <a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2023/03/12/academic-journal-maidan-massacre/">The Grayzone</a> recently noted. This work was encapsulated in "a peer-reviewed paper initially approved and praised by a prestigious academic journal" until it was "suddenly rescinded without explanation," likely under political pressure. </p><p>That seems to be an updated, 2022 version of this 2021 report: <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356691143_The_Maidan_Massacre_in_Ukraine_Revelations_from_Trials_and_Investigation/link/61a90e3f29948f41dbbc300f/download">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356691143_The_Maidan_Massacre_in_Ukraine_Revelations_from_Trials_and_Investigation/link/61a90e3f29948f41dbbc300f/download</a> For general reference, see that report and these 2 useful videos: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yGst19L5us">Video Appendix H - </a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yGst19L5us">How Maidan Protesters Were Shot from Maidan-Controlled Buildings (2020)</a> - <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flztD56UcYk">The "Snipers' Massacre" on the Maidan in Ukraine (2021) - YouTube</a>. From the latter video:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTdAJ0rlNwGAD7C8kzqlGZmtdEY_BVOATg8ebO7IeLbSmNsyVBy5GhuUR0U7f1nTnMWVWFi-O_0L3exVVRNiNl5aHV7mpiZ3zKbM339IEhTdMkBXAP2ZYnV72EhlxQC_lXsiABM5GFzcdo0HX4VkdOWUo8PaWLZna2c_logE9nRvtACYuAWZZ1sM2Bmg/s1924/Screenshot%20(4526).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="880" data-original-width="1924" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTdAJ0rlNwGAD7C8kzqlGZmtdEY_BVOATg8ebO7IeLbSmNsyVBy5GhuUR0U7f1nTnMWVWFi-O_0L3exVVRNiNl5aHV7mpiZ3zKbM339IEhTdMkBXAP2ZYnV72EhlxQC_lXsiABM5GFzcdo0HX4VkdOWUo8PaWLZna2c_logE9nRvtACYuAWZZ1sM2Bmg/w640-h292/Screenshot%20(4526).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>My focus here is on a bit of work from a few years back, but which I first learned of recently in that report: </p><p></p><blockquote><p><i>A New York architecture company working with a team of Ukrainian “volunteers” did a 3D model reconstruction of the killings of three Maidan protesters on an order of Maidan victims lawyers for the Maidan massacre trial.53 <b>This SITU model was cited by these lawyers and the Prosecutor General of Ukraine under Poroshenko as definite evidence that the Maidan protesters were massacred by the Berkut police and that snipers did not massacre the protesters.</b></i></p></blockquote><p>The project in question was by SITU, and still viewable at: <a href="http://maidan.situplatform.com/">http://maidan.situplatform.com/</a> </p><p>An <a href="https://situ.nyc/research/projects/euromaidan-event-reconstruction">explanatory article</a> from 2018 gives collaborators: Ukrainian legal team including attorneys Pavel Dykan and Alexandra Iatsenko with the Advocacy Advisory Panel, Center for Human Rights Science (CHRS) at Carnegie Mellon University, Jus Talionis Reconstruction Lab. "This project is part of SITU’s Spatial Practice as Evidence and Advocacy (SPEA) project, which seeks to utilize spatial analysis and visualization<b> </b>in the service of human rights fact-finding and reporting. ... The interactive platform and co-developed tool for the analysis of citizen video will have significant impact on court proceedings. <b>It will mark the first time that visual evidence and analysis of its kind will be presented in Ukrainian courts."</b> </p><p>Finally: "The work of SPEA is funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Oak Foundation and the Open Society Foundations." No surprise there. </p><p>And see who else loves this project: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/30/magazine/ukraine-protest-video.html">Who Killed the Kiev Protesters? A 3-D Model Holds the Clues - The New York Times (nytimes.com)</a> June 3, 2018. The Times article poses the "claims of grief-stricken activists" - that their fellows were killed by Berkut police - against "denials from Yanukovych" and "Pro-Russia sources." The latter sources tied the snipers to "a U.S.-backed plot" for regime change in "a “false flag” operation carried out by snipers associated with the protesters, or mercenaries from the country of Georgia, who were said to have shot down from nearby buildings. To this day, the story continues to circulate on Kremlin-funded media like Sputnik and RT." And to this day, the claim continues to be reflected in the direct, physical evidence, as related by Professor Katchanovski, for one. From there, it's paywalled for me. But apparently, this scientific modeling proved the Russians totally wrong. (more sources below)</p><p>I appreciate the hard work, by SITU and its partners, that went into cataloguing the videos and modeling the area, parsing the medical reports and putting it all together. <span style="background-color: #ffd966;">But this doesn't give them the right to distort the evidence like they do, <b>modeling it wrong, over and over, to the same politically useful effect. </b></span></p><p>Prof. Katchanovski authored a Critical response: <a href="https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/the-buried-maidan-massacre-and-its-misrepresentation-by-the-west/">The Buried Maidan Massacre and Its Misrepresentation by the West (consortiumnews.com)</a> (April 22, 2019) - cited below. He also revisited the issue in the 2021 report: </p><blockquote><p><i>However,<b> the wound locations of the three killed Maidan protesters in the 3D model do not match the wound locations in the forensic medical examinations of the bodies and clothes and locations of appearing bullet holes in shields and a helmet of these protesters right after they were shot.</b> </i></p><p><i>...[example, cited below]</i></p><p><i>42 The locations and directions of the wounds of these three protesters in forensic medical examinations and matching bullet holes that appeared in the shields of two of them and a helmet another along with their positions at the times of their killings point to <b>their shooting from the top part of the Bank Arkada in the Maidan-controlled area.</b> Several Maidan protesters and medics pointed to snipers there shortly before and after these three protesters were killed. (Video Appendix H). </i></p></blockquote><p></p><p>Other shootings have always seemed to come from the Hotel Ukraine, or the October Palace, or a few other buildings, as each came under control of militant "protesters" and the associated "EuroMaidan Self-Defense units." I called Arcade Bank early on based just on video analysis (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEBtGy7YdfI">video</a>) and slim reports (see map at bottom of this article). But I barely followed after 2014 and never saw that it was confirmed by much evidence. </p><p>"These three protesters," were probably shot "from the top part of the Bank Arkada in the Maidan-controlled area." By my own review of the available evidence, I'd say one of the 3 probably was shot from Arcade Bank. Another could well be, and the other is possible, but both of these others fit best with shots from one or another of a few building ahead that, as far as I know, no one has discussed. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Why These Three Victims?</span></b></p><p>These three cases were selected, perhaps, because the "activists" thought these were the best chances at circumventing the Maidan snipers problem. Shooters from Hotel Ukraine and October Palace were well-known issues, while other suspect buildings were less known. These three are among those shot from other locations, so the researchers might have taken that as adequate to implicate Berkut snipers, on the ground at the police barricade - their "Area of Interest." </p><p>There's no explanation I found, aside from the video <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTsr6eN8TmI&t=1315s">Experiments at the Intersection of Art, Law and Innovation</a>, where SITU partner Brad Samuels says "There's really good video footage of those three deaths." (43:23) There's also good video of other deaths, but they didn't chose any others. </p><p>From my own small files, 6 shootings, with limited visual detail, so provisional findings of gunfire seemingly from Ukraine Hotel and Arcade Bank just up the street. In <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEBtGy7YdfI">one video study</a> (also linked above), we see 2 people behind a low wall shielding them from the police barricade but exposing them to the hotel and to Arcade bank. They're shot, from which of the directions is unclear. Then another rises and starts to run towards the hotel. He has his body turned right to face the street, shield up on his right/back side against the police line. He's shot, it seems, from above and behind, knocking him down and towards the curb. I could be wrong about a visible exit from his chest, but even then, these details seems to line up very well with a newly-opened upper-floor window at Arcade Bank.</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q11iXLSioso">Another example</a> from my own small collection: a young man is shielded from police by his shield and a tree he sits against, but he faces the Hotel Ukraine. He looks up, seems to see something at the hotel, and starts to rise just as two shots are fired at him - at least one hits his body and at least one hits his shield, creating a puff of smoke and denting the shield out so it shines a new reflection of sunlight (from the southeast) on the tree. That's clear fire from the hotel, probably upper floors. </p><p>And <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_Npjp89wHQ">a third example on YouTube</a>: a protester crosses to aid another who was shot, shield up over his head, protecting against the hotel side. That was wise, but showed mistrust of the hotel people. He's shot as soon as he turns left so as to be briefly unshielded, then he topples away from the hotel. Another just a meter away, crouching with back exposed to the hotel, is then shot, but tips back towards the hotel. Others, including a man with a rifle, have their backs to the hotel the whole time and are never shot. </p><p>Beyond those, just one more I stumbled across the other day: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUuArTXywvg">Euromaidan - Mass murder of protesters from sniper fire in Kiev Ukraine - YouTube</a>. At 0:30, another victim is shot near Arcade Bank, tips over away from it, likely shot from it. More shootings are shown, but they didn't seem as clear, and I ran out of time. Here are all 7 mapped on Situ's handy model to show what it all means in 3D. (Some placements are inexact.)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRy3UOLXVSUiR2SGrAThp2AO8Kd3135QDn0XTsZs2mHJxaTQ270WzmnBHgVC1VsRjSnr6EthyZhLAG2lf9uxJRyu2E9nAFedEjKRzsGhiGAqWoUTgfIBuONuyLuTOylRzaUMj6WJCUll81dt0S1BdCrfryvNU8A5aqP_W1yqaUYCvdCN1CZBJa5WRqNA/s1456/Screenshot%20(4568)b.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1456" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRy3UOLXVSUiR2SGrAThp2AO8Kd3135QDn0XTsZs2mHJxaTQ270WzmnBHgVC1VsRjSnr6EthyZhLAG2lf9uxJRyu2E9nAFedEjKRzsGhiGAqWoUTgfIBuONuyLuTOylRzaUMj6WJCUll81dt0S1BdCrfryvNU8A5aqP_W1yqaUYCvdCN1CZBJa5WRqNA/w640-h326/Screenshot%20(4568)b.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Here's a basic idea topographical view, to show why even with the slope, elevated shooting requires buildings. If it comes from around the police barricades but seems elevated, it probably came from another building that way. not from the police at their ground-level positions.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitOKc92LNaN9qt851Nxri6H6YO52_9qUZKrv4fpf7pPnGucpT70PGn8WOA4kJB1n2ax2uRkuc7dGGJ8m_sKRdn840C0vRK1Wmdep-UJW3iWNmN9igPbhqqNMzXo7PPHsbbCmpPr2ttVVabhJBbYdL4mqLoDBwDTIuQq0Smx_G7nncfmai8Q367-j1O0g/s1313/Maidan_Snipers_topo_sketch.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="528" data-original-width="1313" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitOKc92LNaN9qt851Nxri6H6YO52_9qUZKrv4fpf7pPnGucpT70PGn8WOA4kJB1n2ax2uRkuc7dGGJ8m_sKRdn840C0vRK1Wmdep-UJW3iWNmN9igPbhqqNMzXo7PPHsbbCmpPr2ttVVabhJBbYdL4mqLoDBwDTIuQq0Smx_G7nncfmai8Q367-j1O0g/w640-h258/Maidan_Snipers_topo_sketch.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>That's just seven shootings to Situ's three claiming to prove the opposite. I'm open to mixed indications, where the Berkut did shoot some of the protesters. But even with theses cases, it's not very mixed. I'll examine these three now and show that makes <b>ten instances of fatal shooting that apparently came from protester-controlled buildings - <i>including these select cases for the opposite.</i></b> There are others such that, as I gather, they might all be shot by these mystery snipers and not the blamed Berkut. And if these three examples are the best it gets, alongside the worse cases, that really cements the problem professor Katchanovski has been studying.</p><p>The victims in the three cases below were all killed in the same basic area as those 7. SITU's page has a cases section: <a href="http://maidan.situplatform.com/report/23#">http://maidan.situplatform.com/report/23#</a>, where each is mapped, with video explanation, archived videos, attached reports from The Ministry of Healthcare of Ukraine, describing the relevant injuries (cited below as "medical report"), and a report from Knox and Associates, LLC, signed by Michael A. Knox, Board Certified Crime Scene Reconstructionist - to determine the approximate distance and direction from which the shots were fired, and to add other notes (cited below as "Knox").</p><p>I go through a lot of details that require explanation, Feel free to skim through overly-detailed parts, noting the bolded bits. But if you see a point you want explained, you can go back and check the explanation. It's not so mind-numbing to read once you're motivated. The first case requires an extra-detailed review compared to the other two. Skim-reading may be in order there.</p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>1) Igor F. Dmytriv</b> </span></p><p><b>Situ overview: </b>Igor F. Dmytriv was fatally shot at 09:21:59 on February 20, 2014. In two videos capturing the moment of his shooting, Dmytriv can be observed crouching with a shield in a grouping of three other protesters on Instytutska Street. At the time of the fatal gunshot, Dmytriv was oriented southeast with his torso facing Barricade 1 and Barricade 2. Two videos documenting law enforcement officer locations leading up to, during, and after 09:21:59 in the vicinity of Dmytriv are included in the collection of relevant videos. Spatial analysis of bullet trajectory and gunshot audio latency places the shooter causing Dmytriv’s fatal wound within the Area of Interest.</p><p><b>Injuries, Medical report: </b>4 wounds total, starting with entry and exit wounds to his upper right arm: wound № 1 is "at the front external surface and at the edge of the middle and the lower third, approximately at the height of 164 cm from pelma [soles of the feet] and approximately 24 cm down from the right shoulder joint." wound № 2 "is positioned at the right hand (shoulder level) at the front surface and in the middle third, 169 cm up from pelma and approximately 19,5 cm down from the shoulder joint." But these are hard to consider and we'll focus on the torso injuries. </p><p>Entry: "A wound (wound № 3) is positioned <b>at the chest at the right side surface</b> and at the front inguinal line, <b>163,5 cm up</b> from pelma and <b>15 cm to the right from the median line</b>. ...The wound size is approximately 2x1 cm. ... at the right side surface of the chest (and 163,5 cm from pelma) ... "on the front inguinal line," or "between front and middle inguinal lines." I can't place different inguinal lines clearly. One (the front?) relates to the groin, where the line may extend up the outer edge of abdominal muscles, and the "middle" one may run along the outer hip, so between them is at the curve between the front and the side of his chest. Either way, we have 15cm right of center, which is pretty much on the right side, on a standard torso about 30cm wide. </p><p>Exit: "A wound (wound № 4) is positioned at the <b>abdominal</b> space on the <b>left side surface </b>and to the back from the left middle inguinal line, <b>143 cm up</b> from pelma and <b>23,5 cm to the left from omphalos (naval or middle).</b> ... The wound size is approximately 0,3-0,4x1,5 cm. ... at the left side abdominal surface (a little to the back from the relative inguinal line and 143 cm from pelma)." Unless Dmytriv is much fatter than he looks, 23.5 cm left of the naval must be circumferential measure, around to the side and then a bit to the back - the whole torso is usually about 30cm wide or less.</p><p>Canal: "The wound canal begins from the wound, goes from the right to the left, from the top to the bottom, a little from the front to the back and ends at the wound № 4. The wound № 4 is positioned ... The wound canal sized approximately 33 cm between the wound № 3 and the wound № 4" ... An irregular oval injury ... is positioned on the right hemidiaphragm at the muscular part at the spine (lumbar part) level 155 cm up from pelma on the side of right peritoneal cavity. The wound canal also includes "the middle part of the right lung at the side surface" and it passes through the left kidney.</p><p>Knox: "Dmytriv suffered a single-bullet compound gunshot wound with the bullet, which perforated the right arm and the torso, following a <b>right-to-left, front-to-back, downward trajectory</b> across the body relative to the anatomic position." That's just a nice summary. </p><p><b>Injuries, mapped vs. modeled</b></p><p>Katchanovski, 2021 report cited this example in detail</p><p></p><blockquote><p><i>"For instance, according to forensic medical examination, Ihor Dmytriv was shot in the “right side surface” and the “left side surface” of the torso “from the right to the left, from the top to the bottom, and a little from the front to the back” with the entry wound 20.5cm higher than the exit wound. A Maidan victims’ lawyer visually demonstrated at the trial that these wounds locations of were in the right and left sides.<b> In the video of their examination of Dmytriv right after his shooting, Maidan medics also show such locations of his wounds with no wounds visible in the front area, contrary to the 3D model. </b>However, in the 3D model, his wounds were moved to the front and the back and <b>made nearly horizontal</b> in order to fit them to the Berkut positions on the ground.54 (See Video Appendix H)."</i></p><p><i>"Maidan medics also show such locations of his wounds with no wounds visible in the front area, contrary to the 3D model."</i></p></blockquote><p>All told, I'm not sure how much SITU fudged the diagonal track (front-back vs. side-to-side). To exit somewhat from his back, seems it had to enter a bit on the front, and the track seems roughly "corner" to "corner" either way. As I'll show, there's also an issue with how his body was modeled in the scene that helps bring the blame to the Berkut. What's even more interesting, as Katchanovski also noted, is how the line of fire was "made nearly horizontal," or at least made to appear that way.</p><p>First, some given numbers don't add up. The victim is given as 182 cm tall, so an entry wound 163.5cm is at jaw level, not anywhere on his torso, and 143 is at shoulder level, not abdomen. The same numbers appear in the Ukrainian original, so it's not a typo. I don't know what can explain this discrepancy, but as I'll show, it corrects well to go by specific anatomical points referenced, which leads us to shift the wounds, and the suggested descent between them, down about 33cm. </p><p>A good fit for all found with the Pythagorean theorem: A 33 cm wound canal would run 20.5 cm vertically and about 26 cm horizontally through the body - my quick estimate suggest about 26-28cm to cross an average-sized body diagonally. So I suppose these numbers do add up, and only the height of wounds was given differently.</p><p>Correcting entry wound level: taking a right arm wound 24 cm down from the shoulder and also 163.5 cm up makes sense only for a giant. But chest wound № 3 is given at the same level (164 cm) which also makes no sense. So maybe it's also about 24cm below the shoulder? That gives an entry almost where Situ shows it (blue dot in my image), but his arm was raised so that its wound would measure a bit lower than the corresponding torso injury. That happens to fit with the described decent and internal injuries. With the entry wound around 133cm up, at the 5th or 6th rib, it would then damage the right middle lung, the diaphragm (magenta curve) just right of the spinal area, and the left kidney (magenta oval). </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUEu1yxSa6j15a096ds9Z7mS7hX79qzJ7NMtGvXU_Hm5xfx-PNDi8I5zS95OukrRp5QSFsBTeXLE6JwuwluTkpBiVwLAUqbgt84K6idtEYvsGU-6N2P1aMq8kxh75j5swcdYKD_vw6tGxjJV6L90bamL-pBhzxjARw99xNEMB7EpPsAlpb1EDfFqewuw/s822/Screenshot%20(4566)d.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="822" height="534" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUEu1yxSa6j15a096ds9Z7mS7hX79qzJ7NMtGvXU_Hm5xfx-PNDi8I5zS95OukrRp5QSFsBTeXLE6JwuwluTkpBiVwLAUqbgt84K6idtEYvsGU-6N2P1aMq8kxh75j5swcdYKD_vw6tGxjJV6L90bamL-pBhzxjARw99xNEMB7EpPsAlpb1EDfFqewuw/w640-h534/Screenshot%20(4566)d.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>I attempted to quantify the bullet track shown In SITU's modeling, estimating the wound locations on an upright body. I may have placed them a bit too low or too level, but I get <b>about 13 cm </b>shown descent vs. 20.5 in the medical report. It could be greater than 13cm, but it's certainly leveled some compared to the medical report.</p><p>That difference seems fairly mild, but the victim also seems modeled with a slightly different rotation of head and torso than seen in reality, distorting the suggested trajectory. The video shows Dmytriv's back and right side almost equally, with the left arm just barely visible, while the model shows back side almost totally, with left arm fully visible. His right shoulder also seems modeled lower, pointing almost straight up the sidewalk, in an angled slouch that leans into the bullet, </p><p>All this would makes the different overall rotation less visually obvious, and would help minimize the "downward angle" as more explained by a crouching posture than it actually was. All differences appear mild and hard to quantify, but here I trace outline, apparent median of torso and head, and shoulder position. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJr92ezefVHY1WnKoS0zEzTE2i2rweUI8fOXHiljVjzVSBqlt8L1QeIj91lwtI7YfOJTAs_h_oXwJBvPda22mOc4tonakag8mNB2Q2RPnSTrpGKwihBvB9lQoWkVuByKS6R9VTxY0g2Uj_4bllrWRvoW7TI6qFIucwhU-ZHUWkqsR7Qb1YjIC-JB6p9A/s1078/Screenshot%20(4566)b.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="1078" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJr92ezefVHY1WnKoS0zEzTE2i2rweUI8fOXHiljVjzVSBqlt8L1QeIj91lwtI7YfOJTAs_h_oXwJBvPda22mOc4tonakag8mNB2Q2RPnSTrpGKwihBvB9lQoWkVuByKS6R9VTxY0g2Uj_4bllrWRvoW7TI6qFIucwhU-ZHUWkqsR7Qb1YjIC-JB6p9A/w640-h378/Screenshot%20(4566)b.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>The real angle of fire should be a bit more towards the street from the right, not from up the street or at all from the left side. After the shot, Dmytriv tumbles backwards and left, towards the street, probably from the velocity of the gunshot from ahead and to the right.</p><p>The angles here reflect a crouched position, not standing, so some half of this "upward" angle is an illusion, and some of the rightward angle as well. But the rest is no illusion, and all together, it describes <b>a shooter a bit ahead, well to the right, and well elevated. In contrast, </b>SITU's erred modeling produced a shooter at ground level (barely elevated by topography), just slightly to the right but well ahead, on a line crossing both "Militsiya" barricades, with barricade 1 seemingly favored. </p><p></p><p>Knox: "As modeled, the trajectory matches the position of Dmytriv’s body as depicted in Videos #1 and #2." But "as modeled" is not how <i>it was</i>. The bullet track was leveled in his body and perhaps shifted to the front-back, then his body slouched down on the right side, and turned to the left. No single aspect was done terribly wrong, but the small effects add up to a rather incorrect result.</p><p><b>Shield and Body Position:</b> </p><p>(revised 3/24): This took some slower re-analysis. To start, Dmytiv was facing less up the street to the southeast than I initially though. An important BBC News video of his shooting from behind at ground level was shot from the sidewalk alongside the hotel (dark blue line in graphics below), not the main sidewalk (about at the green line). From this view, Dmytriv lines up with the distant sign (yellow). It also aligns with the peak of a distant building I think is at 16 Instytutska, although the view here is oddly magnified, and these buildings are obviously downhill from the protesters. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm1fwvF7OrRTKcqUmFbG9KLp0c3hz0wRX2yzZKnnpVNyaFisDqxXadX1VfkVibaD2kmkCyyh6N8Nc0KZp4uoSIP6QixfOsPb3BMesgm9dSe_lgt48Rbwz5GlKqbY9QQcd_CbEHsiA41AE7u6RGFm1zRJKESpj67vt1OGHYIucLJhVyU65FZeBl68BfdA/s1544/Screenshot%20(4619).png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1544" data-original-width="1310" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm1fwvF7OrRTKcqUmFbG9KLp0c3hz0wRX2yzZKnnpVNyaFisDqxXadX1VfkVibaD2kmkCyyh6N8Nc0KZp4uoSIP6QixfOsPb3BMesgm9dSe_lgt48Rbwz5GlKqbY9QQcd_CbEHsiA41AE7u6RGFm1zRJKESpj67vt1OGHYIucLJhVyU65FZeBl68BfdA/w544-h640/Screenshot%20(4619).png" width="544" /></a></div><br /><p>His shield seems to face roughly ahead on that line - the little forshortening reflects a few degrees to the left - while his body is rotated to face about 2/3 ahead on this line, and about 1/3 or to the left. That's about 30°, perhaps a bit more (30-35°) left of straight ahead on the BLUE line. Relative to the main sidewalk and street here, he's facing around 45-50° to the left of ahead, but his shield is held something like 25-30° to his right. This is consistent with the other view from above, where his shield is not visible (so it doesn't confirm this point either). </p><p>This right-shielding would require a certain position with right hand closer, arm less extended, and likely shoulder back a bit (sketched below, crudely but to scale). The real angle is probably less than the 30° shown here, for a more forward-shielded posture, but somewhat like this. (a graphic that does too much at once, but oh well)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYDTJEObaiuhl1y28UC963URrvFU5bT1H5vc6B37LKT8dikgRZqc3jjJDM6Z10Fr2tB0Al0R2ewFJ4fPflSU-UCkxztLT9FMQnddVpMnux9FrHSEu6Z93RJd7cx3QWUf_2JoX-5q6_M88r8X5JN6z4nBFXje6wvELLeBWqRt45XnQRbelgrakOooltDg/s1055/Screenshot%20(4613).png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1055" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYDTJEObaiuhl1y28UC963URrvFU5bT1H5vc6B37LKT8dikgRZqc3jjJDM6Z10Fr2tB0Al0R2ewFJ4fPflSU-UCkxztLT9FMQnddVpMnux9FrHSEu6Z93RJd7cx3QWUf_2JoX-5q6_M88r8X5JN6z4nBFXje6wvELLeBWqRt45XnQRbelgrakOooltDg/w640-h410/Screenshot%20(4613).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Note how this right-shielded position fits better with both shield and arm damage, and the most side-to-side of the 3 possible bullet tracks here (lime green). The angles: red is SITU - green is what I traced in black - lime green added for options, and it proved a a better fit. Below I add yet another even more side-to-side track that could fit just as well. </div><div><br /></div><div><div>Dmytriv is modeled at one point facing about the right angle (top left), with the slight posture change noted above, but with shield held ahead, not on his right, yielding a different position, with left hand closer, left elbow pulled back. In other views, his head and implied shield seem to face differently, mainly across the street (at right) or completely across the street, with his head turned to face slightly back down the street (bottom left). It could matter that they trace the bullet track in red from the position(s) that appears extra-twisted. (green lines here follow shadows, but that seems to be roughly the same as the unmarked curb, if the sign is set perpendicular to it, like usual) </div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEharr3Lp96xFgMsWAAiyAsTc88s_MMbWNs-NwOYF49d44LRRgyOyTGQOIv2k9mRqAn5pRHCzYAtIe5OABKmSP-b9czYpx5Gm9cr6lulOgG4wBM1eT9Kt_6_SeNqb08d_5kDkfDLcOu98xJJi3b1-WPVNbiyh3k8Reg31v18JeXg8D1VHAOi0ypMl6FpuQ/s1868/Screenshot%20(4615)b.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="992" data-original-width="1868" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEharr3Lp96xFgMsWAAiyAsTc88s_MMbWNs-NwOYF49d44LRRgyOyTGQOIv2k9mRqAn5pRHCzYAtIe5OABKmSP-b9czYpx5Gm9cr6lulOgG4wBM1eT9Kt_6_SeNqb08d_5kDkfDLcOu98xJJi3b1-WPVNbiyh3k8Reg31v18JeXg8D1VHAOi0ypMl6FpuQ/w640-h340/Screenshot%20(4615)b.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Knox: "Video #1 also depicts movement in the metal shield held by Dmytriv in association with the sound of the gunshots indicating that <b>his shield was struck by both shots.</b> The bullet from the second shot inflicted Dmytriv’s wounds." According to the modeling, no shots should have hit his shield. . Katchanovski's work suggests just one bullet hit the shield. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yGst19L5us">Video Appendix H</a> show 2 holes in the front of his shield before this (other frames clarify that's Dmytriv with the same clothes and same shield), and apparently no holes in its side (0:30, held upside-down). After the shooting, a visible new bullet hole appears (1:27) on the right edge. These visuals are not conclusive, but that's about where any new impact has to anyway, given the complex set of observed injuries. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY2T9mYsEi3PftMlxxXaMPsvepctl9w5ULHEFTaHQ7h-uTbg9zEBtDNJ_QrR8rYa6VIa68IXCcO2AYX7dfef1XsMUrJFXu0Maxj1qTRA5GWNVJhwbhEkeUxtWu3T6A-Wbd8gpXgaG0h9B54BpLhVqc77pyFUW0RodiEyrp2DGBxoRCJ_RoGI8M-IZNNA/s1492/Screenshot%20(4577)b.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="690" data-original-width="1492" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY2T9mYsEi3PftMlxxXaMPsvepctl9w5ULHEFTaHQ7h-uTbg9zEBtDNJ_QrR8rYa6VIa68IXCcO2AYX7dfef1XsMUrJFXu0Maxj1qTRA5GWNVJhwbhEkeUxtWu3T6A-Wbd8gpXgaG0h9B54BpLhVqc77pyFUW0RodiEyrp2DGBxoRCJ_RoGI8M-IZNNA/w640-h296/Screenshot%20(4577)b.png" width="640" /></a></div>The shield's right edge seems to be angled slightly to face the right, besides the its mild overall curve to the same effect. This too means the shot came well from his right. The first "impact" could just be from Dmytriv jerking in reaction to the first gunshot nearby. When he's hit, the shield can be seen moving to the right. The lack of new bullet holes in the front again shows he was not shot from ahead, but the injuries always said the same thing anyway. <br /><div><br /></div><div><b>Mapping</b></div><p>Knox: the distance from the firearm to the camera/microphone was in the range of 80m to 219m, "consistent with the shots having been fired from somewhere near Barricade #1." But the shield damage and bodily injuries are not consistent with that. </p><p>In his approximate actual position, a shot from the right does not clearly point to the barricade. Depending on the bullet tracks sketched above, it came roughly on one of the red, green, or lime lines, or a similar angle added here in yellow to include Bank Arkada as a possibility. The other lines suggest one of the buildings ahead, with differing elevation-to-distance ratios. The best fit is probably between green and lime, which is occupied by one building of some height, and the low, open patio of another. I know nothing about the status of these buildings, but they're indicated in the other two cases as well, and we'll come back to them more at the end. <span style="background-color: #ffd966;">SITU's line to the barricade is ruled out for being well too far to the left, and because the Berkut at the barricade had no jet packs to hover above the place and provide that downward angle of fire.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcdq8iZsURbH_QzjKWirSAOxHEe2kSMJHV8hypMiEq4wcmS5g8GMLTLzjxtanmmpiyZKjkMAH_jdGO_Xiywpe6OrtLEqpQlvU49rTT57u2q8vY1DYifnxS_4bYkpSQeYTV9Cqqtyy7w9-sybEL56j4axEu3nIpL9zAMK0paZM7_CtmjtYzyBJ_6mtwFA/s1117/Screenshot%20(4543)b.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="791" data-original-width="1117" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcdq8iZsURbH_QzjKWirSAOxHEe2kSMJHV8hypMiEq4wcmS5g8GMLTLzjxtanmmpiyZKjkMAH_jdGO_Xiywpe6OrtLEqpQlvU49rTT57u2q8vY1DYifnxS_4bYkpSQeYTV9Cqqtyy7w9-sybEL56j4axEu3nIpL9zAMK0paZM7_CtmjtYzyBJ_6mtwFA/w640-h454/Screenshot%20(4543)b.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><p><b>Barricade Shooting?</b></p><p>Knox: "<span style="background-color: white;">Video #2 depicts two separate bursts of firearms discharge residues (smoke) appearing contemporaneously with each of the audible shots. The two separate areas of discharge residues, in conjunction with different pitch and tone values for the audible shots, indicate that two separate shots were fired by <b>two separate individuals, both of whom are located in the area of Barricade #1. </b>... </span> <b>his shield was struck by both shots. </b>The bullet from the second shot inflicted Dmytriv’s wounds." </p><p><span style="background-color: white;">There may be shooters ahead, blocked from view, and there are Berkut - one of their helmets may be visible (orange), ducking behind the sandbags and junk called a barricade. The second puff of smoke I see is at, or in line with, Dmyriv's shield, in front of a sign (yellow) </span><span style="background-color: white;">that, in turn, is in front of the </span><span style="background-color: white;">barricade. No Berkut fired from out in front like that, even if the angle of fire might seem plausible. To me, that smoke</span><span style="background-color: white;"> seems related to the bullet's impact (vaporized aluminum?). The smoke plume appears so large, I expect i's much closer to the camera, like right at the shield. The smoke from that round's firing is somewhere off-frame, apparently to the right and above. A</span><span style="background-color: white;">n earlier puff of smoke or dust to the right looks like to me like another round impacting the ground or maybe a sandbag, apparently on this side of a low wall and the barricade, where there is clearly no shooter under the junk. If I'm right about that (no expert), then just the one shot hit Dmytriv and his shield, as the one new hole suggested. And that would mean <b>2 people fired at once, one shooting the police barricade, as the other killed Mr. Dmytriv. </b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfBMmIe3iYHk_OIIshAyRo7lU5drPCGvr_qq1LjPWxXIbxQEyyXSfjx0XzMMHyx-wrfFzyY_5R_6ILF_ifEjBXXjdfT7xxgO7FU--tMKcpYAL5B9RKIP0Jz7W0mWxYncURdrSIearTRYNSKVenjyJIHbbJtkgaBa5ZR0M92fmL0SUIyCAqQHtaLBkRiA/s1392/Screenshot%20(4578).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1392" data-original-width="1162" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfBMmIe3iYHk_OIIshAyRo7lU5drPCGvr_qq1LjPWxXIbxQEyyXSfjx0XzMMHyx-wrfFzyY_5R_6ILF_ifEjBXXjdfT7xxgO7FU--tMKcpYAL5B9RKIP0Jz7W0mWxYncURdrSIearTRYNSKVenjyJIHbbJtkgaBa5ZR0M92fmL0SUIyCAqQHtaLBkRiA/w534-h640/Screenshot%20(4578).png" width="534" /></a></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">2) Andrii Ivanovych Dygdalovych </span></b></p><p>Katchanovski's 2021 report makes no mention of this case, so the following analysis should add something.</p><p><b>Situ overview: </b>"A. I. Dygdalovych was fatally shot at 09:22:51. In a video captured near Hotel Ukraine, Dygdalovych can be observed approaching and standing with a group of four other protesters on Instytutska Street. At the time of fatal gunshot, Dygdalovych was oriented southeast with the front of his torso facing Barricade 1 and Barricade 2. Law enforcement officers are visible in the video frame at those locations at the moment of Dygdalovych’s shooting. A video documenting law enforcement unit locations during, and after 09:22:51 in the vicinity of Dygdalovych are included in the collection of relevant videos. Spatial analysis of bullet trajectory and gunshot audio latency places the shooter causing Dygdalovych’s fatal wound within the Area of Interest."</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUQsrFDjgK5wjowyhJ-0ymoNYe5MTzRuT1mWYxFU8GX7uCj_RWrYyDTCwlpIH16fS9OjT2LfH3p9QFTq3gjSQN0jduGNLh3j_qLLoaqTjvu9DtezzXZb48S3Pv5VOlwe_ie1slHZyo9d_B1jPCvdG8CxbP1LSErmFyFjPGWVpzHo9NqATyHdwPtjXFsg/s788/Screenshot%20(4580).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="788" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUQsrFDjgK5wjowyhJ-0ymoNYe5MTzRuT1mWYxFU8GX7uCj_RWrYyDTCwlpIH16fS9OjT2LfH3p9QFTq3gjSQN0jduGNLh3j_qLLoaqTjvu9DtezzXZb48S3Pv5VOlwe_ie1slHZyo9d_B1jPCvdG8CxbP1LSErmFyFjPGWVpzHo9NqATyHdwPtjXFsg/w400-h230/Screenshot%20(4580).png" width="400" /></a></div>Note: Dmytriv was shot one minute earlier and is still laying where he fell, immobile but still breathing. It seems getting him help was Dygdalovych's mission until he too is shot. Both of them get dragged away by others with no more immediate shootings. <p></p><p>Just one video is cited, although there is at least one other view from above (see <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yGst19L5us">appendix H video</a>, 5:15), as shown at right. Dygdalovych is at center, in camouflage jacket, green helmet, shield up to the left but not ahead, in the moment before he was shot.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv4aiy7Qc0nqskeuKrSD9C5ilhhzEKB24FQqN8Mivv8hKsXodnYtWipnH8-3g22hJs97oyzpbMjUd0gDiQhf0Bc5k-WvvoE9AMgjFxgIbbWM5TFrzHWZdqbz4qp4jY30rsmD9VVXgu3iK4DB-KX-UFfMTk1BMJP2qKQkK0VhnoDQ7XhHfCz8hyyLGsjA/s789/parasternal.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="789" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv4aiy7Qc0nqskeuKrSD9C5ilhhzEKB24FQqN8Mivv8hKsXodnYtWipnH8-3g22hJs97oyzpbMjUd0gDiQhf0Bc5k-WvvoE9AMgjFxgIbbWM5TFrzHWZdqbz4qp4jY30rsmD9VVXgu3iK4DB-KX-UFfMTk1BMJP2qKQkK0VhnoDQ7XhHfCz8hyyLGsjA/s320/parasternal.png" width="320" /></a></div><p><b>Medical report </b></p><p>Entry: "Wound № 2 is located in the facies anterior of the thoracic cage, on the right side, 157 cm upward, along the cartilages alignment (lineae parasternales), <b>level with the 2nd right rib</b>." Lineae parasternales = parasternal line - a vertical line that, by an image I found and compared to a 15cm half-torso, is 4-4.5cm right of center. It may be even closer to the center, damaging "heart, right atrium," despite being on the right side. </p><p></p><p>Exit: "№ 1 wound visible on the right part of the back, 140 cm from the soles upward, on the level in between the shoulder blade line and the median line ... 3 cm rightward of the linea mediana" (middle of the back or spine). The bullet exits 140cm up after entering at 157cm, so it traveled downward 17cm. Note shoulder blades run about the whole length of the rib cage, to about rib 9 or 10, and it seems the exit is near the bottom of that. </p><p>Medical report: "The relative victim and the person who fired the gun position at the firing instant is likely envisaged according to the injuries location. The shot direction - (onto the right upper-body part) is determined: anteroposteriorly (front-to-back), downward and <b>several from left to right</b>." What does "several" mean here? Maybe "barely," or "barely opposite?" To hit and exit on the right side, going left-to-right but damaging the heart, and wind up just 3cm right of center means the entry wound was maybe 1-2 cm right of center, and the 1-2 cm of travel to the right could be ignored to call a front-to-back injury. </p><p>Or, starting at the parasternal line 4-4.5cm right of center, and ending 3cm right of center actually makes for 1-1.5cm of travel <b>right-to-left.</b> So this point has to be left unclear, noting that it's a minor trend either way.</p><p><b>Injuries, mapped vs. modeled</b></p><p>For a given body length 185cm, again the entry and exit wounds come out too high to make sense. This is similar to Dmytriv's case, but less so, with just 9-10 cm discrepancy to his 33cm. This smaller difference is about that if measuring from the toes of extended feet rather than from the soles. The given entry wound to the chest, at 157 cm from the pelma, would be at neck or jaw level. So I shifted the entry to the 2nd rib where they described it, and the exit to 17 cm below that, which comes out about at rib 10. Path: front to back, little to no left-right movement (unclear), and descending 17cm.</p><p>In SITU's modeling, a descent is reflected, but grossly muted. - estimating where the modeling placed the wounds, then a 5.7cm descent is shown (30 pixels), <b>The difference is threefold.</b> This is a major distortion. The wound canal here starts from a lower point around the 3rd or 4th rib, and ends a bit higher than suggested. This "splits the difference" to make the leveling less obvious.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzZLdsNr_2yva3qhnnMZ72nO58Io325EVYytXS52GE-Sls5Ca1R23mGAVmYhfFhJmbmtnWLsMoMiz9SI7E_68PLfQXgB4iPRcpcLmZ_SZVF_HC6ZPXHLvEwZdpbyRfM3MXTA5C9oaxvhH1TFr6PyBnKoorxiuLLY6QVNcdJ7BC0uu0VMvFAXaCmxgdeA/s1235/Maidan_Snipers_Dygdalovych_comp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="962" data-original-width="1235" height="498" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzZLdsNr_2yva3qhnnMZ72nO58Io325EVYytXS52GE-Sls5Ca1R23mGAVmYhfFhJmbmtnWLsMoMiz9SI7E_68PLfQXgB4iPRcpcLmZ_SZVF_HC6ZPXHLvEwZdpbyRfM3MXTA5C9oaxvhH1TFr6PyBnKoorxiuLLY6QVNcdJ7BC0uu0VMvFAXaCmxgdeA/w640-h498/Maidan_Snipers_Dygdalovych_comp.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>A visible left-to-right angle also seems to clash with the negligible trend described. The whole path seems shifted a bit to the right, making the problem appear even worse than it is, but it seems the exit was shifted more. Entry, as noted, should be 4 or 4.5cm right of center, but here it's more like 7-8cm right (Torso probably ~32cm wide, and it appears roughly halfway between median and side). The exit is near his right armpit, around 12-14 cm from the middle, not 3cm from the median, as reported. That's about 3-4cm shifted in front, 9-11cm in back, for some 5-8 cm of left-to-right motion. That includes and exceeds the described 1-2 cm rightward travel, or it might differ from 1-2 cm travel <i>the other way</i> by up to 10cm.</p><p>Knox: injuries not mentioned, but "In Video #3.1, movement of Dygdalovych’s jacket associated with the bullet impact can be seen at t = 113.920 s. The direction of fire is consistent with coming from the area of the barricades." No such movement is clear to me. SITU's video highlights his upper right back, where there may be some kind of bulge, but it can't be rel</p><p><b>Mapping</b></p><p>Distances estimate: The distance from the firearm to the camera/microphone is calculated at 65m to 128m. "These boundary values are consistent with the shots having been fired from somewhere between Barricade #1 and Dygdalovych" or right at the barricade, as decided, but no further out. </p><p>Position: torso facing roughly straight up this sidewalk, or a few degrees to the left, while his shield is up at an angle to cover his left side more than his front. There's no sign of his shield being hit before he topples sharply downward and seemingly straight back. The suggested fire is basically from the straight ahead, maybe a bit from the left or right, and quite downward. Here are the options, mapped on the model. </p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnseOrT2v6hoykZyHoVa4Hk2hH-b9j-3hOJtaOB8g54sYNLWAzRPyW8uP--QEoUY91vFWZaCNs7kQtP9ccymQv0gjQ15Ht_BigMd0HF7G6T2tedS7h1gt350rCrh4fj18eerjdXHztcvJZe6YhXsQSojZ4-Bn7l64gA96WgEfdNnRvwyS5KHQTho4p0Q/s1337/Screenshot%20(4605)b.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="931" data-original-width="1337" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnseOrT2v6hoykZyHoVa4Hk2hH-b9j-3hOJtaOB8g54sYNLWAzRPyW8uP--QEoUY91vFWZaCNs7kQtP9ccymQv0gjQ15Ht_BigMd0HF7G6T2tedS7h1gt350rCrh4fj18eerjdXHztcvJZe6YhXsQSojZ4-Bn7l64gA96WgEfdNnRvwyS5KHQTho4p0Q/w640-h446/Screenshot%20(4605)b.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>All of these elevated spots are outside the audio-estimated area, and I see no matching, elevated spots within the area. Arcade Bank is partly in the area, but too far to the right. <span style="background-color: #ffd966;">Barricade 1 is in the area, on a good left-of-ahead line, but the Berkut there had no jetpacks.</span> Barricade 2 is a bit uphill and would have shooting from over those trucks, but that's probably not high enough, and it's also deemed out of range. Maybe the estimated area was wrong in this case. This one is not so easy to answer. </p><p>It's also reasonable to suspect the same shooter location as Dmytriv a minute earlier, but the best joint option would be between red & orange here, verging into just "possible" for Dygdalovych and supposedly out of range. Two nearby shooting positions so near the police barricade may not be the most logical or most convenient option, but it seems likely here. </p><p><b>Barricade Shooting?</b></p><p>Knox: "Taken in context, the physical evidence with respect to the shooting of Dygdalovych indicates that he was likely shot by government personnel located near Barricade #1 in the video." It would need to be a spot in the air above them, but even ignoring that...</p><p>There are at least 6 or 7 Berkut snipers seen in CCTV footage from the far side, with 5 or 6 seen from the protesters' side. In the moments before the shooting, one has a rifle he fires to the left, and then we hear another shot with a different sound, from someone else unseen. Then the Berkut aims the rifle again to the left but doesn't fire, and just before Dygdalovych is shot, he swings it to aim nearly at the camera (closer to D, but not AT him). But there's no sign of discharge from any visible rifles when the fatal shot rings out. He didn't fire that shot, so that rifle has an alibi. Another 2 or 3 rifles are seen just to the right, fired at some points, but not at this crucial one. But another area is invisible behind the shields, so we could imagine anything happening there.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQpNxsinxf1JSxwvcwoe73nWm9R_Q2P2xL2Y2LCYTV1g16ujlyeN-lwrDnmWKM6uOWNigGV2jFYyA_bF0UVx261RqZ1Q654KcoJstPvqpMhQSfoV0GPgDPu1Sm4IFxIQj2C1x0Q2qWKZGlxeFqfFdTxaxh-V2Y4i65uhI0HXT5p9KH5mDdvyrlVVhV6g/s1542/Screenshot%20(4552).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="854" data-original-width="1542" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQpNxsinxf1JSxwvcwoe73nWm9R_Q2P2xL2Y2LCYTV1g16ujlyeN-lwrDnmWKM6uOWNigGV2jFYyA_bF0UVx261RqZ1Q654KcoJstPvqpMhQSfoV0GPgDPu1Sm4IFxIQj2C1x0Q2qWKZGlxeFqfFdTxaxh-V2Y4i65uhI0HXT5p9KH5mDdvyrlVVhV6g/w640-h354/Screenshot%20(4552).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">3) Yuriy Grygorovych Parashchuk</span></b></p><p><b>Situ overview: "</b>Yu. G. Parashchuk was fatally shot at 09:48:57. In two videos captured near Hotel Ukraine, Parashchuk can be observed crossing Instytutskaya Street with a group of protesters before crouching on the south side of the street in a cluster of trees near Metro Khreshchatyk. At the time of fatal gunshot, Parashchuk was oriented southeast with his head facing Barricade 1 and Barricade 2. Law enforcement officers can be observed in three videos at Barricade 2 at the time of Parashchuk’s shooting. Spatial analysis of bullet trajectory and gunshot audio latency places the shooter causing Parashchuk’s fatal wound within the Area of Interest."</p><p><b>Knox: </b>"Taken in context, the physical evidence with respect to the shooting of Dygdalovych [sic - he was refering to Parashchuk] indicates that he was likely shot by government personnel." </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZbLzX8-KswRrXJkegZkPXjE6tDrsfRi2v-EkLPKGR-7ryDc4EjbvWTXctKZDlLVqRhj6ONyJN-Q6HPDSWU8xaS4PFuXkMwDHd5_4jV0RJuNQCWrzuFouxllRasqBWfxCQR-unmoAwYwq2g9caZtJGxMHDERK690zBpXYYaF3ytnX37m7SE8mQ7QAUHg/s759/Maidan_Snipers_Parashchuk_skull.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="759" data-original-width="733" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZbLzX8-KswRrXJkegZkPXjE6tDrsfRi2v-EkLPKGR-7ryDc4EjbvWTXctKZDlLVqRhj6ONyJN-Q6HPDSWU8xaS4PFuXkMwDHd5_4jV0RJuNQCWrzuFouxllRasqBWfxCQR-unmoAwYwq2g9caZtJGxMHDERK690zBpXYYaF3ytnX37m7SE8mQ7QAUHg/s320/Maidan_Snipers_Parashchuk_skull.png" width="309" /></a></div><b>Medical report: </b>Entry "wound № 2 … is positioned at the parietal region at the left; - Perforating and multifragmental fractures of the skull cap bones, skull covering and calvaria injuries at the left"<p></p><p>Exit "wound № 1 … is positioned at parietal region at the left." Both injuries are in the same area - the major upper back part of the skull, shaded green at right. They're close together, connected by a short canal, or maybe more of a trough in this case.</p><p></p>Canal: "The gunshot wound canal that goes from entrance gunshot wound № 2 is positioned at the parietal region at the left in a direction <b>from the front to the back, a little from the top to the bottom</b>, affecting the skull bones, covering and calvaria, and ends with an exit gunshot wound № 1 at the parietal region at the left." Two consistent angles shown at right. Other angles are possible, and I don't think we can get more exact in this case. But then, I didn't dig as deep into the medical report in this case. <p></p><p>No left-right direction evident in a front-back trajectory means the bullet came from pretty well straight ahead. It could be from a bit to the left or right, or even two or three bits - it's a short canal and vaguely described. Any downward motion evident in such a short space means <b>a pretty serious elevated shooter, as with the other 2 cases. </b></p><p><b>Improper Modeling</b></p><p>In the video, Parashchuk is facing mainly up the street (green lines - copied into a few places for reference - it has a slight curve here), but his posture is clearly rotated to face a bit to the right. Compare to tree ahead (light blue) - he's facing to its right, not directly at it. The modeling ignores this, having him face right up the street and into that tree, or perhaps a tiny bit to the left. His body seems modeled about right relative to the "camera", but<b> the scene is different around him, so he's facing up the street instead of to the right.</b> This will shift the origin of fire to the left, towards SITU's "area of interest." </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2kyBKeOyfCmLiO1aXPeugislrzzUan_2GLVMQR95F3ROFHW9MQzGdQdN07ZMlaxToOfL7CHeiUEIfrskSRp5rhZ4YnVrX8mamrKxv9nXk23iOlOWcC2l3PPn61p28Dgly0ixiAIakQlSn86HCu36QGHx1jxHXUWdm74m4D9OXfeKDJKDCn13fj486Lw/s1672/Screenshot%20(4597).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1672" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2kyBKeOyfCmLiO1aXPeugislrzzUan_2GLVMQR95F3ROFHW9MQzGdQdN07ZMlaxToOfL7CHeiUEIfrskSRp5rhZ4YnVrX8mamrKxv9nXk23iOlOWcC2l3PPn61p28Dgly0ixiAIakQlSn86HCu36QGHx1jxHXUWdm74m4D9OXfeKDJKDCn13fj486Lw/w640-h298/Screenshot%20(4597).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Unless they meant the other line (dark blue) was the sidewalk edge, or some alternate edge in an interpolated scene? That would fit poorly with the sign and with other models, but would add several degrees more of "interesting" difference. But the meaning of this line in unclear to me, but it must mean something. It casts a shadow.</p><p>The left side of the head is hit better from the left than from the right, but no lateral direction is mentioned in the medical report. Still, Situ decided the fire came well from the left of his body. The view above appears to show a descent, but that's actually travel from the left side (see video, 3:18, 3:27, as shown below). Coming in that left-rotated position, that will shift the fire origin even further to the left, getting it right were they wanted it; they trace the fire to barricade 2, left half, where Berkut with rifles were seen.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW01OY4aiognVGNqqZIvcXTK-cziwhoo7Cl5uR7df3fS5mEVML_oEa91_pQpBIPTU8JzYGZWBwWI6eVQepJxWL5vKMpFUTk9vDsLMPUxjMXWU9Aym6Rnc79rGT1rMxa7h7rK_HWUtjCT08vgF9dDPOCEA59CC59BD0pZbAwK7Q8ZbeYmgLcVYXB6f96A/s826/Screenshot%20(4601).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="446" data-original-width="826" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW01OY4aiognVGNqqZIvcXTK-cziwhoo7Cl5uR7df3fS5mEVML_oEa91_pQpBIPTU8JzYGZWBwWI6eVQepJxWL5vKMpFUTk9vDsLMPUxjMXWU9Aym6Rnc79rGT1rMxa7h7rK_HWUtjCT08vgF9dDPOCEA59CC59BD0pZbAwK7Q8ZbeYmgLcVYXB6f96A/w640-h346/Screenshot%20(4601).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>I happen to agree he was probably shot from left of straight ahead, and maybe to that degree. But <b>he wasn't facing left across the street.</b> He was facing to the right, somewhat towards Arcade Bank. In context, he topples back and a bit to the right, consistent with a hit somewhat from the left of that position. But straight ahead or even a bit to the right - which would be at the bank - also seem possible.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjVdsuZgtf1q3pt9UeXPodG2Cc7EZC_iQYIc4QHmSpelEJZIWquOQvJiYG0Jbcl0N25BcGqEVjs4V9Vggg2Dmocukj_VIos4kxcvoatgrAajGhbj4_3P-_aokBrfdeo-89Ekk5TVm8IHySNBH1OA9r-7BF3ROpPmmD2496equSNCN07QZd4xVfNzASVg/s1900/Screenshot%20(4592)b.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="916" data-original-width="1900" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjVdsuZgtf1q3pt9UeXPodG2Cc7EZC_iQYIc4QHmSpelEJZIWquOQvJiYG0Jbcl0N25BcGqEVjs4V9Vggg2Dmocukj_VIos4kxcvoatgrAajGhbj4_3P-_aokBrfdeo-89Ekk5TVm8IHySNBH1OA9r-7BF3ROpPmmD2496equSNCN07QZd4xVfNzASVg/w640-h308/Screenshot%20(4592)b.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="background-color: #ffd966;">So we happen to agree on likely left origin of fire, but I have the scene set properly around Mr. Parashchuk (but probably not exactly), while <b>SITU rotated the scene</b>, like it's all on a giant "lazy Susan," so they could have that red line land at barricade 2. Well, first it lands some meters above that point, and then <b>there's the ignored downward angle, yet again, and then the blame drops right on the cops.</b></span></p><p><b>Barricade Shooting?</b></p><p>Situ video notes discharge from a Berkut weapon at barricade 2, at one point in the long video 3, but <b>not at the moment Parashchuk is shot.</b> They argue that the fatal shot were fired from there, but it is odd how it wound up less visible than other shots. Or do they have an alibi of not shooting then? </p><p><b>Shot from Behind? </b></p><p>Professor Katchanovski, at ConsortiumNews, raised one ill-founded question here:</p><p>"In the case of Yuriy Parashchuk, forensic medical examinations found that his entry and exit wounds were in the back of his head on the left side. But the 3D analysis moved the entry wound location to the front area and changed its somewhat top-to-bottom direction to nearly horizontal. Frames from a video by a French photographer shows a large bullet hole in the back of Parashchuk’s red helmet. How can he be <b>shot in the back of his head</b> by the Berkut police on a nearly similar horizontal level?"</p><p>The 2021 report continued this:</p><p>"[F]orensic medical examinations by the government experts for the prosecution, a testimony of his sister at the trial, and a single bullet hole in his helmet in synchronized videos show that Yuri Parashchuk was killed <b>in the back of his head</b> when he faced the Berkut police. This evidence suggest that he was <b>shot from the Bank Arkada</b> in the Maidan-controlled area. (See Video Appendix H)."</p><p>But he's seen facing roughly SE towards police line, with the bank to his right, not behind. Helmet and damage - apparent bullet entry - visible early in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUuArTXywvg">this video</a>, but I'm not sure what side that is.</p><p>It's not clear to me that Situ shifted the entry to the front; the parietal region is large, starting just about where they placed the entry wound. Maybe medical photos clarify that point. The medical report does describe entry and exit wounds, confusingly, at the same spot, but it also describes the path between them as <b>"front to the back" </b>besides a little from the top to the bottom.<b> </b>If that were backward, then it's backwards in the medical report too, and real angle would be from behind and slightly UP. That makes no sense, except maybe for a Hotel Ukraine basement window. </p><p>The medical report could be wrong, but Katchanovski doesn't seem to suspect this, and unless there's better evidence (like contradictory photographs), it's best to defer. IF the helmet damage suggests an opposite trajectory, it's probably because Parashchuk was wearing it backwards. </p><p></p><p>Furthermore, he topples backwards, probably due to the bullet's velocity in that direction. There's a sidewalk impact just ahead of him a moment earlier - hitting at the base of a low wall on the southeast side, making a puff of concrete dust. That probably came from ahead, not from behind Paraschuk. And the dust seems propelled to the left and down the street, maybe because that shot also came from ahead and to the camera's right.</p><p><b>Mapping</b></p><p>video 4: distance from camera in a range between 72 meters (between Barricade #1 and Parashchuk) up to 245] m = between Barricade #1 and Barricade #2. Video #5 - near Barricade #1 to beyond Barricade #2.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR6CXN4rqS8MP4OOEH8htZ_uGZPMfPHY0e36UZKKpUSDU5cIZ0_KfCf4IArAh4EU92USbjmf4Wq9y4u40JqhfjRH0GvUQCpcrEylKvw-hUO-UmSFS3-hAOd0wk8cwyWDPCdH_Fp2zkferSsM_fJfDVyKGtzvYPRSuwqOyuRVOyK1UAChMO94Kb8zyjHA/s1090/Screenshot%20(4600).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="728" data-original-width="1090" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR6CXN4rqS8MP4OOEH8htZ_uGZPMfPHY0e36UZKKpUSDU5cIZ0_KfCf4IArAh4EU92USbjmf4Wq9y4u40JqhfjRH0GvUQCpcrEylKvw-hUO-UmSFS3-hAOd0wk8cwyWDPCdH_Fp2zkferSsM_fJfDVyKGtzvYPRSuwqOyuRVOyK1UAChMO94Kb8zyjHA/w640-h428/Screenshot%20(4600).png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white;">3 plausible directions to the left in red, and 3 to the right in orange - best fit for injury and collapse is straight ahead (white) or the nearest positions to the left or right. That's at Specialized school No. 94 "Hellada" at Olhynska St, 2/4 - a spot I know nothing about. An open balcony there is also noted in green, but it's probably too low and too open to work. The best elevation is available some degrees to the right, at Arcade Bank, SE end, which also seems possible, given the victim's actual position. A left angle also seems plausible, but 10 Insytutska st. seems a bit too short to fit the bill. </span><span style="background-color: #ffd966;">Barricade 1 is ruled out by being too far left, <i>relative to the victim's actual position, </i>and also the Berkut had no jetpacks. </span></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></p><p>As noted above, SITU claimed this sniper modeling was done "in the service of human rights fact-finding and reporting." It was used in court in efforts to convict certain men who could be innocent, at the risk of <b>absolving the true killers,</b> and in the service of cementing a rather dubious narrative as legal fact. Over and over, we can see their modeling errors happen de-elevate the shooters to street level, and to tweak the injuries, postures, or spatial orientation of the victims, always to the effect of pointing to the police barricades. That is a politically useful direction for the Ukrainian prosecutors, for their bosses, and for their foreign backers. Would they have commissioned the study otherwise? </p><p><span style="background-color: #ffd966;">If only solicited expert distortions can make their case, and only this well, after having the chance to select three best examples ... the prosecutors must realize their case is deeply, deeply flawed. </span>But they flaunt it because that's their job, and the authors get it approved by others doing their jobs. Those foreign, "Euro-Atlantic" backers have ways of compromising or running foundations to finance little magic shows just like this, and the New York Times, for one, can be counted on to help elevate it into millions of minds, as a newsworthy "fact" of global relevance. It's not clear how conscious they are of all this, but ... it's hard to imagine so many distortions were modeled in accidentally, with no one at SITU noticing. </p><p><b>Buildings Review</b></p><p>New IDs - maybe someone has info on them. </p><p>* Instytutska St, 10 - 2-story - includes Committee on construction, town planning and housing and communal services. It's next to police barricade 2, but they may have been too busy to prevent someone breaking in by a back door. - showed it above - no muzzle flashes I can see, no movement on the roof, but ... it's better than invisible Berkut floating above their barricade to the left.</p><p>* Specialized school No. 94 "Hellada" at Olhynska St, 2/4 - 4 story - center of map below, just south of "140" - not as close to the barricade, so likely more accessible to false-flag criminals, and with better elevation, and not much greater distance. It's not visible from many views, but would overlook the metro station and some exposed positions, like Mr. Parashchuk. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpN8sAUoGVYcYq0s-SPcFZCg0qAOV3kuiUu9MYHvFj8d5eodLMHnXarT_-XI0-dmJIsMRUhkrPBnmUu6j_GO3iyyEv-ONwnA6NrheYPYna4oIKV_LxLvA3XmTUy1C0be9E0ZXHQCX0RE267OiTwNQ4_9cHhpyMKtTuOwzoQ8LfBo0FE8FPyuzJzxHdTQ/s1132/Screenshot%20(4595).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="838" data-original-width="1132" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpN8sAUoGVYcYq0s-SPcFZCg0qAOV3kuiUu9MYHvFj8d5eodLMHnXarT_-XI0-dmJIsMRUhkrPBnmUu6j_GO3iyyEv-ONwnA6NrheYPYna4oIKV_LxLvA3XmTUy1C0be9E0ZXHQCX0RE267OiTwNQ4_9cHhpyMKtTuOwzoQ8LfBo0FE8FPyuzJzxHdTQ/w400-h296/Screenshot%20(4595).png" width="400" /></a></div>In front of the latter, a low, open balcony of another building is probably unsuitable, but would have the same view. Behind it not so far is the taller 1 Bankova street, but it's just outside the estimated shooting distances, from Knox and Associates, for these 3 cases. for what it's worth, further out is the much taller 18A Instytutska st.<p></p><p>I had looked into sniper positions before, in 2014. I wrote this, and it's not bad: <a href="https://orientalreview.org/2014/05/29/who-was-maidan-snipers-mastermind/">Who was Maidan snipers' mastermind? - OrientalReview.org</a> - map from this is below. Glad I made it. I somehow underrated the clarity of fire from the hotel, being overly-focused on new spots, to be special. I might do the same here, but ... well, I gave the reasons why those are my special suggestions. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgchOHVC18EWycQ7isjaTRTOLa8cih9Dn82LAa6ibzzJyZpk2H33fSWMwOYWpxBHPFHuMp3ba8cucrB8qlpSbxr9n8r7TvzDP7Y3g2POane4Fz7AmjZ5redQ1Dvtvtowpr-L9lY5WBcybx0wI-rBkmu2O1ShV_mWn4vGqwtYw9JFBX6ZFal_Y7P2gH-lA/s932/Ukraine_shooting_directions_2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="932" data-original-width="857" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgchOHVC18EWycQ7isjaTRTOLa8cih9Dn82LAa6ibzzJyZpk2H33fSWMwOYWpxBHPFHuMp3ba8cucrB8qlpSbxr9n8r7TvzDP7Y3g2POane4Fz7AmjZ5redQ1Dvtvtowpr-L9lY5WBcybx0wI-rBkmu2O1ShV_mWn4vGqwtYw9JFBX6ZFal_Y7P2gH-lA/w588-h640/Ukraine_shooting_directions_2.png" width="588" /></a></div><p>BBC's Gatehouse had reported on sniper fire from Hotel Ukraine, then asked around for a later report. He had people suggest the Nat bank building and Bankova st. 1 as relevant sniper perches, presumably government-held. The latter does stand out, perhaps tall enough to overcome that distance. On the same line but closer and more likely relevant, Instytutska St, 10 (not noted on the map - at center under the word "barricade"). </p><p>I had noted a closer "Minister's Club" - presumably government-held, but perhaps overrun. I forget now exactly why, but it might be a contender for any shooting that did come from around barricade 2, especially if it seemed bit left and a bit high for them. Arcade Bank panned out. I was fixated on the NW wing, but some cases might indicate its far, SE end. The "House of Chimeras" direction - from prosecutor general's update - is interesting. It points to this far end of the bank, which can matter for elevated shooting, and which came up. House of Chimeras can hardly fit unless it's an enormously tall place, which it isn't.</p><p><b>more sources</b></p><p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/video/magazine/100000005838140/did-ukrainian-police-kill-protesters-videos-may-reveal-the-answer.html">Did Police Kill These Protesters in Ukraine? What the Videos Show - The New York Times (nytimes.com)</a></p><p><a href="https://www.cmu.edu/chrs/news-events/2018/chrs-in-nyt.html">CHRS Project Featured in the New York Times - Center for Human Rights Science - Carnegie Mellon University (cmu.edu)</a></p><p><a href="https://irf.ua/en/yak_tse_bulo_naspravdi_rekonstruktsiya_rozstriliv_pid_chas_evromaydanu/">IRF.UA "How it really happened: reconstruction of Euromaidan … "</a>: 403 Forbidden</p><p>Situ "practice note" published in the Journal of Human Rights Practice in April 2018: <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jhrp/article-abstract/10/1/159/4976458?login=false">Reconstructing Human Rights Violations Using Large Eyewitness Video Collections: The Case of Euromaidan Protester Deaths | Journal of Human Rights Practice | Oxford Academic (oup.com)</a>: paywalled</p><p>SITU partner Brad Samuels also gave a presentation on the Euromaidan Event Reconstruction as a visiting artist at Yale University in fall 2017. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTsr6eN8TmI&t=1315s">Bradley Samuels: Experiments at the Intersection of Art, Law and Innovation - YouTube</a></p><p>Critical response: Katchanovski, April 22, 2019 <a href="https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/the-buried-maidan-massacre-and-its-misrepresentation-by-the-west/">The Buried Maidan Massacre and Its Misrepresentation by the West (consortiumnews.com)</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.internationalist.org/who-was-behind-2014-maidan-massacre-2204.html#:~:text=Then%20in%202018%2C%20Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20General%20Prosecutor%20declared%20the,Kiev%20Protesters%3F%20A%203-D%20Model%20Holds%20the%20Clues.%E2%80%9D">Question Answered: Who Was Behind the 2014 Maidan Massacre? (internationalist.org)</a></p>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-72884837704735104312023-03-01T10:03:00.002-08:002023-03-01T10:22:27.106-08:00Analyzing Donetsk Shelling of October 1, 2014<p><b>March 1, 2023</b></p><p><b>(rough, incomplete)</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmxl5btT_I0RDnP1J7MQrNzn7jjQ9Yz2zqR76QxYqNxi3tjzTUSdOaq4yNZqeNIrsFuoFli0YWKr3iqrRoG6fZoNSO-WK1gTadqCgekebKakJ5ozjVMLWBCRiGvCjn_cw90YopZnubZNgT6IJq5k9p4o0SPfn98VuudE8YKiHiKm_T59bT6uLtddzs7g/s600/By36K2TIcAA-RTL.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="600" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmxl5btT_I0RDnP1J7MQrNzn7jjQ9Yz2zqR76QxYqNxi3tjzTUSdOaq4yNZqeNIrsFuoFli0YWKr3iqrRoG6fZoNSO-WK1gTadqCgekebKakJ5ozjVMLWBCRiGvCjn_cw90YopZnubZNgT6IJq5k9p4o0SPfn98VuudE8YKiHiKm_T59bT6uLtddzs7g/w400-h272/By36K2TIcAA-RTL.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div>One early shelling incident on October 1, 2014, has been most commonly cited as proof that the Donetsk Peoples' Republic or its Russian backers were themselves shelling the citizens of Donetsk. They would do this over and over, it was assumed, just to accuse the "Fascists" in Kyiv and their "UkroNazi" forces or "punisher brigades" arrayed all around the western flank of Donetsk. But here, it's claimed the ballistic evidence disproves their claim, and so well it can serve as a stand-in for hundreds of other incidents over the years. Thousands would be killed in these incidents, but just 11+ in the one we're looking at, that had 2 parts: 6-7 killed at a bus stop and on the bus, and 3-4 were killed at a school on its first day of classes, but luckily no children were killed. <p></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Pro-Kiev Analysis: A Russian/DPR False-Flag</span></b></p><p></p><p></p><p>One cited source has <a href="https://uainfo.org/blognews/407216-razzombirovanie-vatnikov-kto-utrom-obstrelyal-doneck-foto-video-18.html">a page that still loads (uainfo.org)</a>, but the text is vague and the pictures that tell the story no longer load. They should be the same as shared here along with the link: </p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/michail777/status/517284322462937088">https://twitter.com/michail777/status/517284322462937088</a></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRtrT_LbrsErghl60T4SQGKvg52SWyHmh1-skcbxJQwuQVow7igQvac4pUNO3YiozLT3DHn-ii5B5fUp6NaC5b91Nfs_J8XjGPUL0-8ebxjHKi3JZQWmBg2EDG-e184-EOaB8kA5W-ryk2_4Q_CEmZqlQ-jwLtXgviVIJoh0NJG902Dg35yXb9HEpkyw/s600/By3DWDEIIAAeg1L.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="367" data-original-width="600" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRtrT_LbrsErghl60T4SQGKvg52SWyHmh1-skcbxJQwuQVow7igQvac4pUNO3YiozLT3DHn-ii5B5fUp6NaC5b91Nfs_J8XjGPUL0-8ebxjHKi3JZQWmBg2EDG-e184-EOaB8kA5W-ryk2_4Q_CEmZqlQ-jwLtXgviVIJoh0NJG902Dg35yXb9HEpkyw/s320/By3DWDEIIAAeg1L.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>This seems to decide it came from the SW but within the city (10-15km), or from the NW, up to the airport, but nowhere past the line of contact in either direction (green). I guess it favors the SW angle over the airport, as others do (see below). The red line runs N-S, as shown in another image, circling a shadow, maybe to show the directions by sun - at around 10am, it would be from the SE. And then the rocket came from the left or west of that, with 2 directions competing, a 90 degree spread between them somehow ruled out ... <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD8aDG1eoQ-Aa-xW1se34mTao75yL_V-cIh5OLaLxyYYkyEOFjfo3_FTw1V-j-p1v8-bURQuSXFH2EZcfcefvKw-pQLWdvfG_-ZO7N2L9NG2Ken7UgOS2QYHXR53vE9yxf3s85P8KDid-efn36wT-jKS5qly3HgQABsbHVE0IAm7CBImMvabp1xtghHA/s340/By3DV8iIQAAMSAw.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="209" data-original-width="340" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD8aDG1eoQ-Aa-xW1se34mTao75yL_V-cIh5OLaLxyYYkyEOFjfo3_FTw1V-j-p1v8-bURQuSXFH2EZcfcefvKw-pQLWdvfG_-ZO7N2L9NG2Ken7UgOS2QYHXR53vE9yxf3s85P8KDid-efn36wT-jKS5qly3HgQABsbHVE0IAm7CBImMvabp1xtghHA/w400-h246/By3DV8iIQAAMSAw.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><p>... or as <a href="https://twitter.com/bangkokdave/status/517338240718602240">someone else</a> read it, "Seems #Donetsk shell came from SE, implicating #Russia fighters, not #Ukraine." The findings must be explained in Ukrainian on this included image; I'll see about a translation. It indicates SSW or almost due south, and also southeast. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbDxrYjJx92Td0oU59kzvENXsPHnex5tspJLzFSQYqUkcrlTryU94fwNcgw0bHgCB4A8jJvEfjfKvzt8Dw9z_oBisP6OD0y_M581kIl7H6ar14XRxxG9QOUFZGGxNse-aMyqSfaaQ4U9aYCTuN7U1JvnL3jFdU96ZFgzQB1THFCHRp-fp3XihMTjuFsg/s380/By3DWSRIEAE60Ao.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="380" data-original-width="340" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbDxrYjJx92Td0oU59kzvENXsPHnex5tspJLzFSQYqUkcrlTryU94fwNcgw0bHgCB4A8jJvEfjfKvzt8Dw9z_oBisP6OD0y_M581kIl7H6ar14XRxxG9QOUFZGGxNse-aMyqSfaaQ4U9aYCTuN7U1JvnL3jFdU96ZFgzQB1THFCHRp-fp3XihMTjuFsg/w358-h400/By3DWSRIEAE60Ao.jpeg" width="358" /></a></div><p>Most others agree in reading it as from the SW, based on the embedded tube's angle. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5KR9HGgyCBa8N6IGfypcISpjfa5pfDXck0V5bnBXHKxcWC-3eTKYLZIGyCDvdaziTlAoWR7mN5zkymWmWlzPeE0v1kAfyskmrGvc5XkMlOGOqFid9VPSmU_3CKG0LpZRAVXTUiwsKZuRmT-abD5j2E0TAdxBdK5S4cn2RC3THLg7LTVps3LY1a8GsgA/s509/By3.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="247" data-original-width="509" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5KR9HGgyCBa8N6IGfypcISpjfa5pfDXck0V5bnBXHKxcWC-3eTKYLZIGyCDvdaziTlAoWR7mN5zkymWmWlzPeE0v1kAfyskmrGvc5XkMlOGOqFid9VPSmU_3CKG0LpZRAVXTUiwsKZuRmT-abD5j2E0TAdxBdK5S4cn2RC3THLg7LTVps3LY1a8GsgA/w400-h194/By3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>https://twitter.com/euromaidan/status/517283023793160193<p></p><p>Traces SW only to a point, some 14km out, still within the DPR-controlled city, noting "there is no AFU" there, and so "Militants of the DNR shell Donetsk, passing it off as shelling by the Ukrainian army."</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYmhqXazp2Muid78-IKqfgKVGr1m-GZngL9dgZ6oPOgZgPVzBO3xuWC7h6yzbIElfA__y09OYIM-WrFsksO-P6demuaP846NgK1XOCjZovKC5Fa1_xOmRx-tcr9TscZesP0vrGqMaJe45sQlNy4k0IvD3XslM6Qt_O-dTz0AA63bA-_tpsYqWFUVTeEQ/s600/By35sL7IEAA8Sdk.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="422" data-original-width="600" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYmhqXazp2Muid78-IKqfgKVGr1m-GZngL9dgZ6oPOgZgPVzBO3xuWC7h6yzbIElfA__y09OYIM-WrFsksO-P6demuaP846NgK1XOCjZovKC5Fa1_xOmRx-tcr9TscZesP0vrGqMaJe45sQlNy4k0IvD3XslM6Qt_O-dTz0AA63bA-_tpsYqWFUVTeEQ/w400-h281/By35sL7IEAA8Sdk.png" width="400" /></a></div>https://twitter.com/GorseFires/status/517365353895063554<p></p><p>"Shelling by Russian-backed Forces at civilian targets, incl school, in Donetsk" - picture shows fire from the south or southwest, not from the airport. </p><p>https://twitter.com/UkrainaSegodnya/status/517337119123972096</p><p>claim "VATA, look at WHO IS ACTUALLY LEADING THE SHOOT OF Donetsk in order to feed you news" - picture: same above but more elegant - it was someone to the southwest, not at the airport (right), nor in the center of the city (left). </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpNKFsFmlPFm6EsmuqK17mjCR_Ouf1tJscHj0DUsMRiS0oTusZWrO9wMkw9oxr8Sl9oLGt7MGRyzCMmRwlVgPNBD7LASI_Qxt1vqtGSkGd3r5IPKeaYw2_sq4kv1UL6su2pvRhDfvVFE0tBTx0qa1q-Omj6JnuiKd8ZV5Uhk9IPmePp0xkiAW9mggKeg/s846/By3zXf7CAAAhgt6.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="424" data-original-width="846" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpNKFsFmlPFm6EsmuqK17mjCR_Ouf1tJscHj0DUsMRiS0oTusZWrO9wMkw9oxr8Sl9oLGt7MGRyzCMmRwlVgPNBD7LASI_Qxt1vqtGSkGd3r5IPKeaYw2_sq4kv1UL6su2pvRhDfvVFE0tBTx0qa1q-Omj6JnuiKd8ZV5Uhk9IPmePp0xkiAW9mggKeg/w400-h200/By3zXf7CAAAhgt6.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><p>https://twitter.com/Vityushka_UA/status/517245394791981056</p><p>"For those not from #Donetsk: the projectile on Poligraficheskaya, which killed 8 people, came from the side of the city, not the airport (see diagram)."</p><p>https://twitter.com/MannfredNikolai/status/517386292179787776</p><p>"#Ukraine Footage from #Donetsk, showing, the projectile came from 'rebel'-held south south-east, not from the airport" Shown: 3 photos, one with the tube circled, no labels to indicate directions or to show he has any idea how to say the angle. The other southeast readings above seemed confused. But as it so happens, this one is closest to my own analysis (see below).</p><p><b>What is with this airport fixation? They act like if Ukraine had done it, that's the only place they could have done it from. </b>But in general from 2014 to the present, probably at that exact time, Ukrainian forces surrounded the city on the western flank. At least the outer districts have always been surrounded a full 180 degrees including due north & south. Some places get hit from the SE or NE and it still points to UA-held areas at the time. So Southwest absolutely does not rule out Ukrainian forces. See mapping below.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Russian/DPR Sources</span></b></p><div><div>https://www.rt.com/news/192140-ukraine-school-shelled-donetsk/</div><div>At least nine people were killed and 30 others injured in Donetsk after a school and a bus stop came under fire, reportedly from Ukrainian army positions.</div><div><br /></div><div>Three people died at the school and six others were killed at the bus stop, Donetsk City Council said in a statement on its website.</div><div><br /></div><div>No children were killed in the shelling of school №57 on Wednesday, but the debris from the blast left two parents and a biology teacher dead.</div><div>The city council earlier stated that all 70 children studying at the school were in the building at the moment of the strike. They were hastily evacuated. The school building was damaged in the attack.</div><div>The Russian Foreign Ministry describes the attack is a cynical and blatant breach of international law.</div><div><br /></div><div>“The particular cynicism of this shelling is the very fact that today was the children’s first day at school. And on this day, artillery directly targets them. These are blatant, intolerable things,” the ministry’s human rights ombudsman Konstantin Dolgov said.</div><div><br /></div><div>Public transport has been changing routes due to the shelling.</div><div><br /></div><div>One hundred and forty-six schools in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic had commenced classes out of 150, Minister of Education of Donetsk People's Republic Igor Kostenok said.</div><div><br /></div><div>A ceasefire between the Ukrainian government and the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics’ authorities was signed in Minsk, Belarus, on September 5.</div></div><div><p>https://www.kp.ru/daily/26288/3167053/</p><p>The shell hit one of the schools in Donetsk on the first day of the school year</p><p>The capital of Donbass was shelled from the "Smerch". Our special correspondent Alexey Ovchinnikov transfers from the scene</p><p>https://sputniknews.com/20141001/School-Shelling-in-Donetsk-Grave-Violation-of-Humanitarian-Law-193519343.html</p><p>At least 11 people have been killed in shelling of the school in Donetsk on Wednesday. According to the city council, 70 children were inside the building when firing started. There has been no confirmation from the Ukrainian sources yet.</p><p>The Ukrainian government and independence supporters of the country's eastern regions agreed to a ceasefire during the September 5 Contact Group meeting in Minsk. Since the establishment of the ceasefire, the opposing sides have repeatedly accused one another of violating the truce.</p><div><div>Blood and damage at the school https://twitter.com/A_Knishenko_RT/status/517343468231069696</div><div>https://twitter.com/NOVORUSSIANEWS/status/517245392115994624</div><div>https://twitter.com/RussImperialist/status/517785628919226368</div><div>The junta is still functioning perfectly and is constantly shelling Donetsk and Luhansk.</div></div></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Other Sources</span></b></p><p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29439743">Ukraine crisis: Shell kills four at Donetsk school - BBC News</a></p><p>Both sides blamed the other for Wednesday's attacks. The Kiev-controlled regional administration said rebels from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) had opened fire with a multiple-launch rocket system. But DPR deputy leader Andrei Purgin told Russian TV that Ukrainian rocket launchers had targeted residential areas from as far as 40km (25 miles) away.</p><p><a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2014/10/ukraine-forces-must-stop-firing-civilians-after-nine-killed-donetsk/">Ukraine: Forces must stop firing on civilians after nine killed in Donetsk - Amnesty International</a></p><p><b>Ukrainian and rebel forces must immediately end indiscriminate attacks in residential areas</b>, Amnesty International said today after at least nine civilians were killed in strikes on a school and a bus in Donetsk.The latest attacks, which took place in the Kievskiy district of the city, came as Amnesty International documented <b>a pattern of indiscriminate shelling and rocket attacks in the area by Ukrainian forces in the past 10 days.</b></p><p>“Ukrainian government forces must immediately stop firing on residential areas in Donetsk,” said John Dalhuisen, Amnesty International’s Europe and Central Asia Director. “Ukrainian and rebel forces are violating international humanitarian law by endangering civilians with indiscriminate attacks, despite the fact that attacks may only be directed against combatants.“These attacks are unlawful because Ukrainian forces are using weapons in populated areas that cannot be targeted with sufficient accuracy to distinguish between civilian objects and military objectives.”</p><p>Today’s attacks resulted in the highest civilian toll in a single day since a ceasefire was struck between Kiev and pro-Russian separatists in early September. Four civilians were killed in the shelling of a school, which had more than 50 children inside at the time, on the day schools across Donetsk opened following a month-long delay due to the armed conflict.Another five civilians were killed when a minibus was hit – either by rocket fire or a mortar. Six civilians were killed in Kievskiy district on Sunday, all in the same area as today’s attacks. </p><p>In a visit to the affected area of Kievskiy on Monday, Amnesty International delegates saw a large rebel artillery piece sitting in the middle of a residential street, less than 10 metres from a house. “By basing military targets in residential areas, rebel forces have failed to take all feasible precautions to protect civilians and have endangered civilians in violation of the laws of war,” said John Dalhuisen.“By carrying out military operations in the neighbourhood, rebel forces share responsibility for these latest attacks with the Ukrainian forces.”</p><p>Amnetsy faults DPR forces for INVITING attacks, but seems to blame actual attacks on Ukrainian forces. Ukraine will not have been happy with that, as they were busy denying that, blaming the DPR "terrorists." An earlier Amnesty link given on Twitter is now broken. It may have only called out Ukrainian forces, with the update reflecting their counter-accusations, to "both sides" it so even "rebel forces must immediately end indiscriminate attacks in residential areas." <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/news/ukraine-forces-must-stop-firing-civilians-after-nine-killed-donetsk-2014-10-01">https://www.amnesty.org/en/news/ukraine-forces-must-stop-firing-civilians-after-nine-killed-donetsk-2014-10-01</a></p><p><a href="https://sputniknews.com/20141001/UN-Secretary-General-Condemns-Donetsk-School-Shelling-in-East-193531967.html">https://sputniknews.com/20141001/UN-Secretary-General-Condemns-Donetsk-School-Shelling-in-East-193531967.html</a></p><p>UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has condemned the shelling of a school in east Ukraine's besieged city of Donetsk and described the incident as "particularly alarming," UN Spokesman Stephane Dujarric told the press on Wednesday.</p><p>"We're very concerned of the reports of violence we've seen over the last two days. The shelling of the school is particularly alarming. Targeting of schools [is] unacceptable in any circumstances," Dujarric said in New York. ... According to Stephane Dujarric, Ban Ki-moon urged conflicting parties in Ukraine to strictly comply with the agreement reached in September in Minsk in order to "ensure sustainable cease fire."</p><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">My Own Analysis</span></b></div><div>I did my own geolocation first - using the school name to locate that, then checking nearby bus stops on Kyivsky prospect - one matched in a few minutes. That set directions for my analysis of the crime scene. Other sources I then found tend to agree on both points, just disagreeing on what it means. </div><div> </div><div><b>School №57</b> - location: 48.0498649,37.7809874 - address: 1 Yasnopolyans'ka St</div><div><br /></div><div>An impact crater is shown, apparently at the corner just south across the street - Facade damage is to the south-facing main entrance, and damaged cars are parked just south of that. Just from some limited views, I'd say the shell responsible came <b>partly from the south, </b>maybe from the southwest or SSW<b>. </b>Facade damage, right side - quite a spread high and low - that's the forward direction. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7qWf7WdH1UM7ppHW6N6belCCcIjHxwLin6gUZ9UWyBVUP1Cc3BTcipFtJYkZw2C0tGHvKX3Rkz3GppWpK8RDZORxMgQxJz1NhV_-8FApvtTXvDP7Uxqtb6ZO53AY_ITMajHdgeU5tFPQ5wI6IT2P2MrA4_K8ROZVOLK4lik_x9DeI50kT1-temmeVNw/s600/By33w3mCMAAXzZD.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="600" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7qWf7WdH1UM7ppHW6N6belCCcIjHxwLin6gUZ9UWyBVUP1Cc3BTcipFtJYkZw2C0tGHvKX3Rkz3GppWpK8RDZORxMgQxJz1NhV_-8FApvtTXvDP7Uxqtb6ZO53AY_ITMajHdgeU5tFPQ5wI6IT2P2MrA4_K8ROZVOLK4lik_x9DeI50kT1-temmeVNw/s16000/By33w3mCMAAXzZD.jpeg" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>But the car damage is quite low on the car parked on about the same line, albeit much closer. All told...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNeVX-JjZfhc4sJAk5ojJS4tkiaTJcHGAP85hT21FExCKj9rzoctEWxM3kopqMZJRmYkz3Ey6kw-ZkcU-CWJ-Q-mEVWCPD6TduhryCo2JW9bS2SWiFLAXGTYnR2Q9HEq5Zaz4_5kBiKJ1vfuwJ5hV709hgReEDl6fdVLl_ZQGME6ydbKUFjxE8EA9y9A/s1504/Screenshot%20(4448).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1292" data-original-width="1504" height="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNeVX-JjZfhc4sJAk5ojJS4tkiaTJcHGAP85hT21FExCKj9rzoctEWxM3kopqMZJRmYkz3Ey6kw-ZkcU-CWJ-Q-mEVWCPD6TduhryCo2JW9bS2SWiFLAXGTYnR2Q9HEq5Zaz4_5kBiKJ1vfuwJ5hV709hgReEDl6fdVLl_ZQGME6ydbKUFjxE8EA9y9A/w640-h550/Screenshot%20(4448).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Highest marks may be at left edge of the magenta box - tracing to the corresponding point at the roof points SE, but the roof isn't the measure - it's skewed a bit left of its ground-level footprint. Therefore, the line from impact crater to magenta's edge is roughly due north. <b>This rocket came from the south.</b> Isn't that where Kyiv had no forces? </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Bus stop</b> - scenery match with minor, acceptable differences from 2011 street view - Kyivsky Prospekt, about 200m NW of the school. 48.0520607,37.7778159. I have more video and street views to show the site match, but why bother? Every source here already agrees on this obvious location. </div><div><br /></div><div>In this view, we face mainly south, like that bus was headed. The embedded rocket tube points back to the southwest, roughly 45 degrees to this (almost) north-south street. But this might reflect some bending on impact. The asphalt "splash" pattern of fragments from the rocket's underside is a more reliable clue, but not totally clear here. I trace the area of dense marks in orange, as far as I can see it, with the crucial forward edges left and right a bit unclear, coming out a bit concave (they're usually straight or a bit convex) and the pattern is also a bit asymmetrical - dense to the SW, looser to the SSE ... an angle up the street from the south or SSE seems like a best fit, but then denser marks to the SW look more like those in the direct rear usually look, plus the tube points that way, so I'll consider that in a range. But I feel that something closer to <b>due south, or a bit SSE or SSW, is most likely.</b> I don't think plain southeast can explain this pattern. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj24OjnJCU8TcERVanXEAr_ioRs2QqxsWkenGrZOVUngvpqGCKXv5xPmM0tGPiobjjBGXx3wODezP4IW1WpEpvpFdPJk9EeKnWBbfPkS5qvuYgLdGOAY6s903wzMvlUyHitsbS-eZB3rv6StiU5sXWNayViz3jWc48iCJpv-aJr5C1MR1hO7nMfNd5K9Q/s1151/Donetsk_2014_bus_direction_1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1151" data-original-width="910" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj24OjnJCU8TcERVanXEAr_ioRs2QqxsWkenGrZOVUngvpqGCKXv5xPmM0tGPiobjjBGXx3wODezP4IW1WpEpvpFdPJk9EeKnWBbfPkS5qvuYgLdGOAY6s903wzMvlUyHitsbS-eZB3rv6StiU5sXWNayViz3jWc48iCJpv-aJr5C1MR1hO7nMfNd5K9Q/w506-h640/Donetsk_2014_bus_direction_1.png" width="506" /></a></div>Note that both pins for the bus impact and the school have their tips visible in the lower right view; they're basically at the same spot, and probably hit from the same angle, minus no more than one degree or so. And both readings tend to support each other in pointing less SW, less SE, and more plain south.<div><br /></div><div>Were Ukrainian forces to the due south? The pro-Kyiv sources pointing that way, or mainly southwest, claimed there were none, at least not within Donetsk city limits. They read the direction decently, but pair it with an assumption that there were no Ukrainian forces to the southwest, or that they were too far out to have fired this shell. ... But according to a plausible-looking map with <a href="https://tass.com/world/752267">this Tass report</a>, in the days before this attack, they were to the SW (rough measure) about 22-25km out, and to the south, and even southeast, at a distance around 35-40km. Here with my estimated angles traced out (from Donetsk: range in red, most likely in black: about 35km).<br /><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1WnWCtbso476t_zQsp7HP9-Qrck7x3MY_K22CWcIyhlwCyH4V0HQlodRXluDPWnVfoYLnEtb7RxyKd2qoQzUE98kL7OHbpyUItpLWlVO34-QiT4RIvSmCZ3QCkYqdNRPqBBIXoiW6WjSK5oSRWQWfn9knMedaGb_NCXsvpOlaw7m9WLyLi5P6wKFKMA/s1052/Donetsk_2014_bus_direction_2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1052" data-original-width="740" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1WnWCtbso476t_zQsp7HP9-Qrck7x3MY_K22CWcIyhlwCyH4V0HQlodRXluDPWnVfoYLnEtb7RxyKd2qoQzUE98kL7OHbpyUItpLWlVO34-QiT4RIvSmCZ3QCkYqdNRPqBBIXoiW6WjSK5oSRWQWfn9knMedaGb_NCXsvpOlaw7m9WLyLi5P6wKFKMA/w450-h640/Donetsk_2014_bus_direction_2.png" width="450" /></a></div>But by this, DPR forces controlled areas closer in, and further out ~60km to the south (but nowhere else to the southwest). That is, UA forces controlled a span about 20km deep, and about 20km wide, to the south of these exact impacts. </div><div><br /></div><div>Also consider that hypothetically, either side could penetrate the others' territory, especially if it's briefly and for a special reason, like some false-flag or double-false-flag attack. By this map, both sides were a bit vague about control down here. If it turns out some short or long range use puts the origin in one of the DPR areas, it doesn't 100% prove their guilt, nor does the opposite 100% prove Ukrainian guilt. Still, it's a fairly strong indicator, which is why people try to asses where a munition came from. In this case, almost everyone did a decent job, just with some disagreement over what it means. </div><div><br /></div><div><div>An early analysis that gives a reasonable and common reading of SW origin, and agrees with me on the probable implications:</div><div>https://twitter.com/MilitaryMaps/status/517675715568099328</div><div>https://dragon-first-1.livejournal.com/6315.html</div><div>noting 35 km Uragan range, finding it was probably Ukrainian forces.</div></div><div>KP reported that "Smerch" was used. If that means BM-30 (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-30_Smerch">Wikipedia</a>), it can fire different rockets and maybe guided missiles up to 100 and even 200km, with standards that go 70-90km (to re-check). The Ukrainian-held pocket to the south spans about 40-60 km, so that would be a pretty normal or maybe short-range use. (Exact weapon identification is not my area)</div><div><br /></div><div><div>My range of lines more to the south is sound and pretty clear, with distance being the crucial unknown I've never been good at determining. With a better measure to the front line, a clear estimate of the distance flown, etc. we could say for sure, but ... if it came from that ~20 km span, well, ... </div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">The Pattern it Fits</span></b></div><div>... that would fit Amnesty International's established "pattern of indiscriminate shelling and rocket attacks in the area by Ukrainian forces in the past 10 days." </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRMxwCRyZrpRTZQHHlxKb6j3rpu3ZCepICJdBiuWYir5vzx77cCmW0fvrAkH6Z8dgKY8vmzZAlUksynKc3DkWYQjVwxHfj529EeTFkgPJSWjMTDR0uY6ugHDryRZIuYpOf0-OC1vJ-RTtObHeaZ2bba-MoVl4YnsQ8_6rbCBy8HYkmL8DUcKgBC0z7Gw/s945/Screenshot%20(4455).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="844" data-original-width="945" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRMxwCRyZrpRTZQHHlxKb6j3rpu3ZCepICJdBiuWYir5vzx77cCmW0fvrAkH6Z8dgKY8vmzZAlUksynKc3DkWYQjVwxHfj529EeTFkgPJSWjMTDR0uY6ugHDryRZIuYpOf0-OC1vJ-RTtObHeaZ2bba-MoVl4YnsQ8_6rbCBy8HYkmL8DUcKgBC0z7Gw/s320/Screenshot%20(4455).png" width="320" /></a></div>A center of the International Red Cross was hit in Donetsk the next day, October 2, killing a Swiss aid worker, in attacks involving cluster munitions. <b>The New York Times would briefly join Amnesty in blaming Ukrainian forces, finding the ballistic evidence to be obvious (not that I've reviewed it) in indicating fire from Ukrainian-held areas.</b></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/21/world/ukraine-used-cluster-bombs-report-charges.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/21/world/ukraine-used-cluster-bombs-report-charges.html</a> </div></div><div><br /></div><div>Amnesty has been called out for keeping some track of crimes by Kyiv's forces, who often seem to run wild. But even the New York Times was running this "Putin disinfo." This is why even the perpetrators could be convinced sometimes to chill out on this terrorism, and to generally keep the death tolls low but steady. </div><div><br /></div><div>School and bus and church and hospital attacks are all great, but usually they use small-to-mid-sized weapons, not heavy ones, and they don't go for maximum death toll, or target children especially. Eg. most schools are hit while not in session, and even here, the shelling at top of the hour only killed adults out front. Playgrounds are often hit, especially by scattering cluster bomblets, sometimes injuring or killing young children. But playgrounds big and small are all over, on just about every block - pretty hard to miss in an indiscriminate attack - and they're not usually crowded. From early on, the people have learned to shelter and move about only cautiously, also greatly limiting how many get killed. It's only been ... what, 14,000 killed, total even to now? 50,000 plus seriously wounded? I should look that up. Anyway, it could be worse, if everyone on the Ukrainian side just didn't care at all and went unhinged on the genocide stuff, and/or if the people there weren't so good at adapting to this new reality.</div><div><br /></div><div>I didn't read ahead, but October 1 and 2 might be a point where some people move to reign others in, and the terrorism might chill out for a while. But it always comes back, even in 2023 - just days ago, an ambulance crew was <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/02/killing-ambulance-crew-more-western.html">killed in a double-tap attack (my analysis</a>). The only thing that's changing this for the people - aside from some briefly-held ceasefires back in the day - is the Banderite punishers getting hammered further west, if slowly, and at great cost to all. But even that is often offset by new long-range weapon outsiders make available, at great cost to all - e.g. increased use of US-supplied HIMARS rockets, allegedly including on that ambulance. There's also an increased reliance on US-supplied 155mm artillery shells, with 50-100 of the tings fired into Donetsk city most days. That's our tax dollars, while our system decays and homelessness is growing here, to help pay for blowing up homes and lives in what they say is Ukraine, where the Ukrainian people's well-being is supposed to the paramount issue for the whole world. </div></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-69490642679713241722023-02-28T03:01:00.006-08:002023-02-28T03:11:33.835-08:00Donbass Shelling and Russia's "Unprovoked" Invasion of Ukraine, part 2<p><b>Donetsk Shelling, 17 Feb. to 18 March</b></p><p><b>February 28, 2023</b></p><p><b>(rough, incomplete)</b></p><p>I had this mostly done a while back, when I posted <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/01/donbass-shelling-and-russias-unprovoked.html">part 1</a>, but I still don't feel like finishing it properly. So it's a mess, but there's good stuff in there. </p><div><div>As related in <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/01/donbass-shelling-and-russias-unprovoked.html">part 1</a> ... electric and water systems badly disrupted - continuing into March and beyond - artillery attacks - largely ignored by the outside Western media as it has always been. Ukraine's government always blamed the Russians, implicitly or explicitly. But where firing directions can be told, they point back to Ukrainian-held areas surrounding the city, just like the Russians, their local allies and most locals have always known and always said..</div><div><br /></div><div>In part 2, I focus just on the city of Donetsk because: centrality as capitol of the DPR - roughly 100% civilian nature - abundant images of attacks over time to compare, and ample street views on Google Maps and Yandex Maps to compare, frequent addresses given and unique buildings to assist geolocating unplaced views - placement and establishing direction allows for crude ballistic analysis for virtually any visually documented artillery strike. </div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>It's notable that shelling in the center of the capitol didn't start right away - shelling in the outer districts started on or by 17 Feb. and until March, it was mostly on the northern and western outskirts. We'll look intensively at that span, then just a few others to mid-March to cover roughly one month at the start of this historic conflict (or phase of it). </div><div><br /></div><div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">17 February </span></b></div><div><b>17A) Homes on Melitpolskaya street</b></div><div>A Patrick Lancaster video from the "Petrovka district" (Petrovsky) where a reported 10 shells landed that day. Two homes were lightly damaged, with no reported injuries. </div><div><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXNdhPoea20">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXNdhPoea20</a></div><div>Melitpolskaya street is named and a #67 is shown.</div><div><br /></div><div>"Armed Formations of Ukraine, in violation of the Minsk agreements, are shelling the territory of the DPR and continue active preparations for offensive operations. Massive attacks on the territory of the Republic in all directions are confirmation of these facts. As a result of the fire of Ukrainian militants, two residential buildings were damaged at the addresses Melitopolskaya 67 and 86 a. In order to protect the civilian population, our defenders were forced to return fire to suppress enemy fire weapons."</div><div>(<a href="https://t.me/nm_dnr/6183">https://t.me/nm_dnr/6183</a>) </div><div><br /></div><div><div>"The consequences of the shelling of Donetsk - photo report of the DPR Representative Office in the JCCC. As a result of the violation of the ceasefire regime by the VFU, private housing constructions in the village were damaged." (<a href="https://t.me/dnronline/57532">https://t.me/dnronline/57532</a>) The same addresses are given, both with damage to "glazing" (meaning or including windows) and nothing else. See also if allowed: <a href="https://dnr-sckk.ru/fotoreportazh-posledstviya-obstrela-g-doneck-4/">Фоторепортаж. Последствия обстрела г. Донецк - Представительство ДНР в СЦКК (dnr-sckk.ru)</a></div><div><br /></div></div><div>Melitopolskaya street runs E-W (ENE-WSW). Google and Yandex maps have no street views. 86a (north side) and 67 (south) both match the visuals. Location: 47.9703395,37.5926761 - 67 damage: one visible frag mark in a window facing north, and nothing else I can make out. Light fragment marks, somewhat high and scattered probably means the forward direction, so the shell came <b>partly from the north.</b> 86a damage: neighbor shows her home was also damaged on the north side (upper window broken, seen). It's not clear where that impact was or if it could be the same shell that damaged #67. She also says the roof was damaged (not visible), logically from a different shell, or maybe the window was punctured from the inside as a result of that. </div><div><br /></div><div>At least two interviewed by Lancaster thought the shells came<b> from Krasnohorivka, about 7km to the northwest. </b></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG9ixB3PmCJMQR5_i0UXX4ZUuvNzaYDf69KAg9eE0P65-COosKIT3A90lBJRL6rCCf_3RvnFFIqjALdgEovfxIrRaWazoiil4IHwodaHDyWp6Ypc3Ro0Oe2EDIaTtBSwqvM-i-6VfS6Tn2HhHVAf336T9Gc-PrUOPgrvYh_4HM6CPCFSi9FWZzmdEaig/s1382/Screenshot%20(4118).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="985" data-original-width="1382" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG9ixB3PmCJMQR5_i0UXX4ZUuvNzaYDf69KAg9eE0P65-COosKIT3A90lBJRL6rCCf_3RvnFFIqjALdgEovfxIrRaWazoiil4IHwodaHDyWp6Ypc3Ro0Oe2EDIaTtBSwqvM-i-6VfS6Tn2HhHVAf336T9Gc-PrUOPgrvYh_4HM6CPCFSi9FWZzmdEaig/w640-h456/Screenshot%20(4118).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">18-20 February </span></b></div><div>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6194 </div><div>Over the past week, FORTY violations of the ceasefire regime have been recorded by Ukrainian armed forces. Of these, SIXTEEN times with the use of 122-mm cannon artillery, 120 and 82-mm mortars. The enemy also fired at the settlements of the Republic, using various types of grenade launchers and small arms.</div><div>⚠️ The areas of NINETEEN settlements were subjected to shelling by the enemy: GOLMOVSKY, ZAYTSEVO (southern), pos. mines. "GAGARINA", pos. mines 6/7 and the village. mine "IZOTOVA", GORLOVKA, DOLOMITNOE, VESELOE, MANDRYKINO, ALEKSANDROVKA, STAROMIKHAILOVKA, pos. mines "TRUDOVSKAYA" DONETSK, ELENOVKA, SIGNAL, PETROVSKOE, NOVOLASPA, SAKHANKA, LENINSKOE, ZAICHENKO and KOMINTERNOVO.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>That's 11 to 18 February. But in the city of Donetsk, just one geolocated shelling spot in this time, on the 17th, and none for a few days after; there was no shown damage in the city that I could find on Feb. 18, 19. </div><div><br /></div><div><div><div>Over 5 hours on the 19th, picked at random 'til I got bored (14:23 to ...19:50), the Telegram channel Military Donetsk passed on reports of Ukrainian shelling of the republic across the front line at different points, and employing in total: 4 "LNG grenades" - 83 "AGS grenades" - 30 mines (shells) of 82 mm caliber - 168 shells of 120 mm caliber - 12 shells of 122 mm. https://t.me/militarydonetsk/1681 https://t.me/militarydonetsk/1698 </div></div><div><br /></div><div>That day and the next, the OSCE SMM records, from sources on the ground, some fire outgoing from government-held areas, and other fire incoming to DPR territory, in fact to almost where they were: https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512683</div><div><div>"On 19 February, while positioned in a residential area of Mykolaivka (government-controlled, </div><div>40km south of Donetsk), the Mission heard five outgoing mortar explosions at about 200-</div><div>300m north-west of its position. It left the area immediately."</div><div>"On 20 February, while positioned near a residential area on the western outskirts of Horlivka </div><div>(non-government-controlled, 39km north-east of Donetsk), the Mission heard two </div><div>undetermined explosions and saw black smoke about 50-60m west of its position. It left the </div><div>area immediately." And then they couldn't see as well just what Ukrainian forces did in that sector. </div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>Most of this fire was presumably aimed at DPR military positions, and some would come from them, with both sides seeking to tilt the tables ahead of the coming conflict. But as shown in part 1, some Ukrainian fire was directed at wrecking civilian infrastructure, the water system, etc. </div><div><br /></div><div>So far, residential areas and city centers had been pretty well spared. But that was about to change, and someone had an inkling. <a href="https://twitter.com/GicAriana/status/1495064102636601348">Activist Ariana Gic tweeted on the 19th</a>: "BREAKING: #Ukraine's military intelligence confirm that #Russia's Wagner troops have arrived in #Donetsk to carry out <b>terrorist attacks - specifically to blow up residential buildings - with the intention of blaming #Kyiv. #Putin's fave false flag attack." </b>I suppose there's a more primary source, but ... How could they be so sure? </div></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><div><b>20A) Homes in Petrovsky</b></div><div><div>20 February, 6:55 pm: Ukrainian shelling damages a home in Donetsk (settlement of Trudovskaya mine) at the address: st. Klubnaya 35a</div><div><a href="https://t.me/dnronline/57759">https://t.me/dnronline/57759</a> - 9:33 pm confirming the above and adding a second address: st. Aleutskaya, 48 (<a href="https://t.me/dnronline/57778">https://t.me/dnronline/57778</a>) - later report with attack details: at 18:30 shells launched from Maryinka to Donetsk (Trudovskaya mine settlement): 3 mines of 120 mm caliber were fired (<a href="https://t.me/dnronline/57780">https://t.me/dnronline/57780</a>)</div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>"PHOTO-FACT: As a result of the violation of the ceasefire regime by the AFU, damage was recorded to two residential buildings in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk: - st. Clubnaya, 35a - damaged windows, doors, facade of the house; - st. Aleutskaya, 48 - part of the ceiling of a residential building collapsed from the shock wave and vibration, the facade and glazing were damaged. At the time of the shelling, the hostess, a pensioner, was in the house."</div><div><a href="https://dnr-sckk.ru/fotoreportazh-posledstviya-obstrela-g-doneck-4/">Фоторепортаж. Последствия обстрела г. Донецк - Представительство ДНР в СЦКК (dnr-sckk.ru)</a></div><div><a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/2136">https://t.me/militarydonetsk/2136</a></div></div><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIdmpfzt0baMqipoSaqmWK3M47ysX2LH6U-kjeJJeCHTXcJRqVxdtY9Q6DRSbDEowWyXbKW3yus4mLB2qc7GpMHktsLCLuitmtFk0z00K7k8VcYGP326LMh0_DVigbcZ4spjB2-3U4UnJ2tAEHINvTaLVHqnO7LEQx6wfo2MPcJI_BCep0JMkemJ2J-g/s1280/photo_2023-01-11_08-57-55.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1280" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIdmpfzt0baMqipoSaqmWK3M47ysX2LH6U-kjeJJeCHTXcJRqVxdtY9Q6DRSbDEowWyXbKW3yus4mLB2qc7GpMHktsLCLuitmtFk0z00K7k8VcYGP326LMh0_DVigbcZ4spjB2-3U4UnJ2tAEHINvTaLVHqnO7LEQx6wfo2MPcJI_BCep0JMkemJ2J-g/w640-h640/photo_2023-01-11_08-57-55.jpg" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><br /></div><div>35a Clubnaya is at 47.9513378,37.5604737 - outer Petrovsky - 48 Aleutskaya st. is directly over on the next street to the south - if one impact happened between the streets, it might explain damage at the 2 addresses, but to hit the ground and damage a roof is unlikely. 2+ impacts suggested. Both streets run NW - as shown, a slight splash pattern in the pavement, near a north-pointing corner suggests a <b>southwest origin</b>, as shown by the JCC investigator. That's probably from Marinka as said, Ukrainian-held at the time. </div></div><div><a href="https://t.me/dnronline/57812">https://t.me/dnronline/57812</a></div><div><br /></div><div>More videos from 21/2 Trudovskaya and that ambedded mortar shell: </div><div><a href="https://rutube.ru/video/005a2a5cc16a47e4cffe71ba1ecdae4c/">https://rutube.ru/video/005a2a5cc16a47e4cffe71ba1ecdae4c/</a></div><div><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuBEd680_J0">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuBEd680_J0</a></div></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">21 Feb.: Attacks on Schools, Homes, Water, Electric, Transit </span></b></div><div>On the 21st, Russia formally agreed to recognize the Lugansk and Donetsk Peoples' Republics as independent nations, nearly 8 years after their inception, and agreed to defend them as needed, citing United Nations charter article 51. This would lead to street celebrations in Donetsk and fireworks into the night, despite the heaviest shelling to date in the broader republic and now grew serious on the city's outskirts. </div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>21A) School no. 105 </b></div><div>Video: "School 105. They just fired, they are already repairing it." https://t.me/militarydonetsk/2168</div><div>Photos https://t.me/TK_Union/6972 - https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3281 -https://t.me/dnronline/57858</div><div><a href="https://yandex.com/maps/org/shkola_105/1371238366/?l=sat%2Cskl%2Cstv%2Csta&ll=37.602895%2C47.966645&mode=search&sctx=ZAAAAAgBEAAaKAoSCVZjCWtjyEJAEVcm%2FFI%2F%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%2BAEAggI20YjQutC%2B0LvRiyDihJYxMDUg0LIg0J%2FQtdGC0YDQvtCy0YHQutC%2B0Lwg0YDQsNC50L7QvdC1igIAkgIFMjE2MzCaAgxkZXNrdG9wLW1hcHM%3D&sll=37.602895%2C47.966645&sspn=0.002135%2C0.000866&text=%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8B%20%E2%84%96105%20%D0%B2%20%D0%9F%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BC%20%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5&z=19">Shkola № 105 — Yandex Maps</a> - in the Petrovsky district. The impact crater is along the west (WSW) side - possibly straight in or at an angle, but partly from the west, with a decent force into this room - marks all around the window frames, across the ceiling, through the middle window (of 3), marking the door. The blast will always radiate in all directions like this. The forward direction is the one marked the highest up and furthest out, which isn't clear in this case. So far, I can only say this shell came from southwest, west, or northwest.</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm83Uo42kfLaLpe-dFihGxnGqULHBXFsirR2HyFmIShV29wb0ArAv36u1CQ1WUB32i97m9yZcJRWPa_N3iWef4UTzTg_a5JK1lObCe_XbZO387GtMZkifiVxpMQnqqgVgPCU18MxkpVCZMqV01om0_7I7oaUBg4aOnAFxq5iJP6Ejt08JmNTK_MiPY1w/s1954/Screenshot%20(4007).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1210" data-original-width="1954" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm83Uo42kfLaLpe-dFihGxnGqULHBXFsirR2HyFmIShV29wb0ArAv36u1CQ1WUB32i97m9yZcJRWPa_N3iWef4UTzTg_a5JK1lObCe_XbZO387GtMZkifiVxpMQnqqgVgPCU18MxkpVCZMqV01om0_7I7oaUBg4aOnAFxq5iJP6Ejt08JmNTK_MiPY1w/w640-h396/Screenshot%20(4007).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Then an outside view - different bands of fragmentation damage describing a pretty consistent arc that angles up to the right and then levels out past the 3rd window - this makes for <b>an impact from the left or north of west (or northwest)</b> - about the northernmost angle shown in my range. (even better view here: https://t.me/donbassr/11856)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3AY6iAOFAEJtrzCr9SF9VWGb6c3JOJ-d1E5f1FrjlKtcBipf6ONt3Lyluhml7FNsVEQ14uvMOHSsBcxOWwxKXm1KZPO2dATvVqyBZmi67kfDy5bhS0B1wg65A7bZyy5D4K94Ephs5XPxoFZYa06NiPqHUZncEfEn61WRD-PHVKIH_elDgXWPWaThiQA/s1282/photo_2023-01-14_19-32-33.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1282" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3AY6iAOFAEJtrzCr9SF9VWGb6c3JOJ-d1E5f1FrjlKtcBipf6ONt3Lyluhml7FNsVEQ14uvMOHSsBcxOWwxKXm1KZPO2dATvVqyBZmi67kfDy5bhS0B1wg65A7bZyy5D4K94Ephs5XPxoFZYa06NiPqHUZncEfEn61WRD-PHVKIH_elDgXWPWaThiQA/w640-h390/photo_2023-01-14_19-32-33.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div>9:26 am - both school impacts reported, along with "gas pipe on the street. Voikov (between houses No. 8 and No. 10/2). There is no fire." <a href="https://t.me/dnronline/57795">https://t.me/dnronline/57795</a> Location: 47.9669704,37.6014656 - about 50m north of the impact at school 105. It's possible but unlikely an impact there would damage a pipeline between the two houses. This suggests a second shell was aimed the school but fell short.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>21B) School no. 56</b></div><div>https://t.me/donbassr/11873 - https://t.me/TK_Union/6995 - https://t.me/dnronline/57830</div><div>Location: Novosinna St, 77 in northern Kyisky district - 48.0439176,37.7542667</div><div>The crater is next to south wing (inner, NW facing wall), blast apparently directed partly into it, with the fragmentation pattern suggesting the shell arrived well from the left of straight into the wall, so it came <b>from the west</b>, roughly - perhaps WNW to due west, or more likely, a bit WSW. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGOuTcWZDu86PV9UmZt1c8kDpG-2YdsuN7rpfV2srB5tPxX048grNVZgnRnugSv30pvnhuzS9p8KIkCG66GNYs_qZqCXAYgXiXfUUk0qahVAYcZdmE7YX_zj_vC0LBXKMBaI_MhtFNVzGJXfqaaM3EEdUvJNn1g3YlkouWmCph0DIUaAzUusOF-v4lww/s2126/Screenshot%20(4041).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1138" data-original-width="2126" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGOuTcWZDu86PV9UmZt1c8kDpG-2YdsuN7rpfV2srB5tPxX048grNVZgnRnugSv30pvnhuzS9p8KIkCG66GNYs_qZqCXAYgXiXfUUk0qahVAYcZdmE7YX_zj_vC0LBXKMBaI_MhtFNVzGJXfqaaM3EEdUvJNn1g3YlkouWmCph0DIUaAzUusOF-v4lww/w640-h342/Screenshot%20(4041).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyDUxOW4mytihRlZhPRASGar7wgQ2UAYRGredBbFQs02VCVEOsLPVye3m1nFEBRlM1vDIpOQQ9zhx3oYTGJrwdFOHVy_bBsuLko_2pi6hzyTwAzYSjNw2-kERIzlG-qPZMbehnb8647JK3Xw3nz-SieghWqoVWFdFC-SurrSjn_qN2Z649OhTUqI6yLA/s733/Screenshot%20(4052).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="629" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyDUxOW4mytihRlZhPRASGar7wgQ2UAYRGredBbFQs02VCVEOsLPVye3m1nFEBRlM1vDIpOQQ9zhx3oYTGJrwdFOHVy_bBsuLko_2pi6hzyTwAzYSjNw2-kERIzlG-qPZMbehnb8647JK3Xw3nz-SieghWqoVWFdFC-SurrSjn_qN2Z649OhTUqI6yLA/s320/Screenshot%20(4052).png" width="275" /></a></div><b>21C) Electrical Substation in Petrovsky</b></div><div>https://t.me/TK_Union/6968 </div><div>APU deliberately hit the electrical substation in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk.</div></div><div><div>https://t.me/dnronline/57846</div><div>As a result of shelling from the positions of the 54th mechanized brigade, a power line was damaged in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk — UNM DPR</div></div><div>https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/6028</div><div><br /></div><div>Not geolocated - impact damage unseen past a downed power line, some fires as if from spilled fuel</div><div>Trudokskaya mine was cited as the area by mayor Kulemzin, who said 6 transformers were knocked offline sop that "Residents of 814 houses of the private sector, an outpatient clinic on the street were left without electricity. " - https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3319 </div><div><a href="https://www.google.com/maps/search/%D0%A2%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F/@47.9501859,37.5445156,480m/data=!3m1!1e3">Трудовская - Google Maps</a> - general area is about 500m west of 21C. I don't have it correlated, but there are some matching features at least... the local topography argues somewhat against a shell from the northwest. Any other direction seems totally open. </div><div><br /></div><div>In all this, there were luckily no reported deaths, nor even injuries (that I noticed). But that luck didn't hold everywhere.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>21D) Man Killed at Bus Stop</b></div><div>Petrovsky district, Trudovskaya: 2 impacts at a bus stop - a man was killed - his body from the waist down is shown. The rest is scattered, some parts hanging from trees.</div><div>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0180KvDIeo</div><div>https://t.me/dnronline/57831</div><div><div>https://t.me/dnronline/57835</div><div>Representation of the DPR in the JCCC: As a result of the violation of the ceasefire regime by the AFU in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk (settlement of Chelyuskintsev sh-ty) at the intersection of st. Dunayevsky and st. Markin, a man died.</div><div>video https://t.me/dnronline/57841</div></div><div>Description + scene means about here: 47.9666182,37.5830772</div><div>Patrick Lancaster video <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0180KvDIeo&t=2s">18+ Ukraine Mortar Attack Kills Civilian Waiting For Bus In Donetsk (GRAPHIC) - YouTube</a></div><div>Lancaster gestures south when explaining where the shells came from - over a wall on the street's south side, first impact at that curb - next a dirt crater across the street and a bit west. Distant homes match with some to the north. A bus passes: route 60a, perhaps. Maps say the route here is 60Б. Ignore E & F crater labels; this is all attack spot D now. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7qz0FPEhe-h6f6t_jn-AKrar5N4KOjs12jv5dSOLLftEG9cULNVsjvNDmaNwZ3S2SZhqAcINShit0UCz0Wrg1RxeaYJIMm3rtt59t6iXXW1GTx0FW_Bb34yRdl6WrKh710Fj89JuP2v-VDLXPnFr_ukmt5H5w3weXfz5tf8jlJEIYfzLNPIuRjfrtMw/s1107/Screenshot%20(4117).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="1107" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7qz0FPEhe-h6f6t_jn-AKrar5N4KOjs12jv5dSOLLftEG9cULNVsjvNDmaNwZ3S2SZhqAcINShit0UCz0Wrg1RxeaYJIMm3rtt59t6iXXW1GTx0FW_Bb34yRdl6WrKh710Fj89JuP2v-VDLXPnFr_ukmt5H5w3weXfz5tf8jlJEIYfzLNPIuRjfrtMw/w640-h292/Screenshot%20(4117).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9FSNoejrJKJIwNbv4_NteuKy3gKRxSlcbxhzv5h8NYHTJKPTrMifnZpbhMjvoJ44nOB5iNDdDqI3Zv719U36OwFSf00dhdR1x5Xr0x168VgzttVGFNemIWd0x7VlFbs5JUn-fim-ZjsjyKDKoZqzkKlQeBd18F0J1i2kEi0RK69SJwSJJbdl4riGgMw/s1280/2-21_E1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9FSNoejrJKJIwNbv4_NteuKy3gKRxSlcbxhzv5h8NYHTJKPTrMifnZpbhMjvoJ44nOB5iNDdDqI3Zv719U36OwFSf00dhdR1x5Xr0x168VgzttVGFNemIWd0x7VlFbs5JUn-fim-ZjsjyKDKoZqzkKlQeBd18F0J1i2kEi0RK69SJwSJJbdl4riGgMw/w400-h225/2-21_E1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIsTmxjdz2TvxHQf3qKFICrKBTpUjvHm0ANr3Gwc0cnl3KBGnZ4R68HpRgvHfS3CprMa9NML2qDMVry3QdZ0SbeaiH3MveEPaeRYxh8VpWP8nZ2GxVtPNQieeMgHjPusgFVjf7No3OtYrNwFBNG21MCDFprb0VaRS1NqGwnbPFgdKv7vI3DQapqklDXA/s1280/2-21_E2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIsTmxjdz2TvxHQf3qKFICrKBTpUjvHm0ANr3Gwc0cnl3KBGnZ4R68HpRgvHfS3CprMa9NML2qDMVry3QdZ0SbeaiH3MveEPaeRYxh8VpWP8nZ2GxVtPNQieeMgHjPusgFVjf7No3OtYrNwFBNG21MCDFprb0VaRS1NqGwnbPFgdKv7vI3DQapqklDXA/w400-h225/2-21_E2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieIk068cuxIJLgfsnlfhULblQa40P5Q4MNRGWzhddHMhVCN8kj0h2Fiw96z_5hek77HhXi2BK7PhT1XLAmzqV4LtvwV4f3yMODsld9IhMQrGsdd3_O9Sxy31LT75-0ykWlAZySDJks1WuFdjcmj71t8oD_nXDJTpe2pu3qEk3zW3P5Q9Dm825fRPAqSg/s501/2-21_E3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="429" data-original-width="501" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieIk068cuxIJLgfsnlfhULblQa40P5Q4MNRGWzhddHMhVCN8kj0h2Fiw96z_5hek77HhXi2BK7PhT1XLAmzqV4LtvwV4f3yMODsld9IhMQrGsdd3_O9Sxy31LT75-0ykWlAZySDJks1WuFdjcmj71t8oD_nXDJTpe2pu3qEk3zW3P5Q9Dm825fRPAqSg/s320/2-21_E3.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWz54U7g24p-ivreLukgkE0hnGa94mWkQkXhftkq3J9W6edwjqmVCECF7Cc3W5WmCh7ynsPBCL5mN2fk5oQ_7za9dNLVnZM39MVzviBVu-g5115z5ZY63VCKeE1cHhL6mvQRExz22Bn4iDNDjNrdnDxvGX00xd_rtQCBHJMG79owOpycPkAOevF5BtVg/s661/Petrovsky_frontline.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="659" data-original-width="661" height="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWz54U7g24p-ivreLukgkE0hnGa94mWkQkXhftkq3J9W6edwjqmVCECF7Cc3W5WmCh7ynsPBCL5mN2fk5oQ_7za9dNLVnZM39MVzviBVu-g5115z5ZY63VCKeE1cHhL6mvQRExz22Bn4iDNDjNrdnDxvGX00xd_rtQCBHJMG79owOpycPkAOevF5BtVg/s320/Petrovsky_frontline.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />Above: both impact craters, tail section of one of the mortar shells used. Right: a map I made to check on the southern frontline, as south origin was alleged. Due south, 6.4 km from the impacts and further out is Ukrainian-held. To the SW it's a bit closer, and to the SE a bit further out.<div><br /></div><div>Analysis: Soil displacement: unclear, with most of it hidden under the grass. Some torn ground right of center might be the "splash" pattern indicating arrival a bit from the right or east. The major part of the victim's body was flung a few meters to the NNW. Frags dense enough to tear apart a body, directed mainly from the waist up, on anyone close to the road means those were the high/forward fragments. Curb hit: section blown out to north or NNE, concrete rubble spreads north, maybe a bit more to the NE, but likely being side-spray. Overall: visual say a bit from the SE, but that's not conclusive. Broadly <b>from the south</b> - SW to SE - is the right call.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX_7FbSa0PH3f6Jins_68389JIHt8VpTpjV8vRW4rtDbXF0r5llRuoZ6AwOhMxYsw6CJDr88K1KO5RX4FFo9aNvJIjbGOQ5j2g3jq0T_GyqDn7AKhmpoNi5xfCXldOzyQrU2JBCjook_b7KBZFJU3tkcXavKyxxTGb9VqU8gqWcrb4VA0mDIRLVR-GPg/s1303/Screenshot%20(4179).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="735" data-original-width="1303" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX_7FbSa0PH3f6Jins_68389JIHt8VpTpjV8vRW4rtDbXF0r5llRuoZ6AwOhMxYsw6CJDr88K1KO5RX4FFo9aNvJIjbGOQ5j2g3jq0T_GyqDn7AKhmpoNi5xfCXldOzyQrU2JBCjook_b7KBZFJU3tkcXavKyxxTGb9VqU8gqWcrb4VA0mDIRLVR-GPg/w400-h226/Screenshot%20(4179).png" width="400" /></a></div>2-21 E) Ivana Susanin Street </b></div><div>2/21 10:25 pm </div><div><div>https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/6047</div><div>As a result of shelling from the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a woman was knocked down by debris at 22 Ivana Susanin Street. The houses at 19 Ivan Susanin St. and 44 and 46 Donskoy St. were also damaged.</div></div><div>video: <a href="https://t.me/nm_dnr/6279">https://t.me/nm_dnr/6279</a></div><div>The woman survived, was freed from the rubble: </div><div><a href="https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3320">https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3320</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Given addresses are in the Kirovsky district at 47.9879605,37.6667631</div><div>And see here for more photos and readings (northwest AND west): <a href="https://dnr-sckk.ru/razbiratelstvo-po-faktu-obstrela-kirovskogo-rajona-g-doneck/">Разбирательство по факту обстрела Кировского района г. Донецк - Представительство ДНР в СЦКК (dnr-sckk.ru)</a></div><div>46 Donskoy St. - crater just NE of the house, damaging this wall, almost entirely top to bottom as far as we can see (below the sloping red line might be unmarked) - "splash" pattern appears only at the sides - read as <b>northwest origin</b> and from the details, I agree. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi21l5LzMFp_KL0JLOtMBrWxkaQ6XQdFOV6fx-e4qQujPUwyJVzFGjsaIaaCTfPVuv__Xr2hSUXiz7UIcheshBeb6D86FhhJF3m1g27c9u_Dc2AcXuyY5F0lrntEKQlBylcxUzsN0mDqneZ0SknaNcCfH9MC6TkveP_GUQs2UHXRx7JpFO8l6QOVUlC4A/s1280/photo_2022-02-22_13-45-23.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1280" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi21l5LzMFp_KL0JLOtMBrWxkaQ6XQdFOV6fx-e4qQujPUwyJVzFGjsaIaaCTfPVuv__Xr2hSUXiz7UIcheshBeb6D86FhhJF3m1g27c9u_Dc2AcXuyY5F0lrntEKQlBylcxUzsN0mDqneZ0SknaNcCfH9MC6TkveP_GUQs2UHXRx7JpFO8l6QOVUlC4A/w640-h480/photo_2022-02-22_13-45-23.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Another shell hit into the roof at 22 Ivana Susanin - another made a dirt crater just NE of 19 Ivana Susanin, damaging a porch, read as <b>from the west </b>or a bit to the WSW. All 4 addresses mapped, set on a JCCC map showing the northwest shell origin. But by the readings, this residential area was hit from two directions this day. (<a href="https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/6073">https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/6073</a>)</div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEEZ7RC8eiYi7bJymc90dgssh3xPSEgZfq8iP-F8wM5DwzW6S1V8448XK92lVCangxtA3Aam-0VNHqN_IsVaCL4jG9KAFXwGd4bWftdy-wNE24PI4bAGFrmHLu83TvwccLOzmY1hMnYOqgKA_2PUPYJ3B68qOkCEIRdm0nn8hH4LKer2r8Irq6CidPng/s1280/Screenshot%20(4178).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="739" data-original-width="1280" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEEZ7RC8eiYi7bJymc90dgssh3xPSEgZfq8iP-F8wM5DwzW6S1V8448XK92lVCangxtA3Aam-0VNHqN_IsVaCL4jG9KAFXwGd4bWftdy-wNE24PI4bAGFrmHLu83TvwccLOzmY1hMnYOqgKA_2PUPYJ3B68qOkCEIRdm0nn8hH4LKer2r8Irq6CidPng/w640-h370/Screenshot%20(4178).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><div>2/21 1:03 pm? <a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/2172">https://t.me/militarydonetsk/2172</a></div><div>"The DPR said that an electrical substation and <b>the Donetsk central city hospital No. 14</b> were damaged during mortar shelling by the Kyiv security forces." No other reports bear this out, and there are no visuals. Maybe just some confusion, but worth mentioning anyway, and mapping below for reference</div></div><div><br /></div><div>Comparing to the OSCE SMM's daily report covering the 21st (<a href="https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512842">link</a>). It has nothing in the text about what was impacted in Donetsk, to include or exclude homes, schools, an electrical substation, or a hospital. Mapping: They map a bunch of impacts I haven't seen, and seem to have observed the explosion at E (homes), and maybe at B (school 56), if they estimated a bit wrong, and possibly a hit at hospital 14, if it were estimated very far off. But the impacts in Petrovsky were all clearly missed: school 105, electric substation, and the bus stop where a man was killed. (Note I started with a different C, now moved back to the 20th.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeg911zSNb0I9MFU4ReRV1_d8mE_YI9KUmC_7YAJJrlxIHTwout3FKy3_yJBTakcFVxP8pWyeDE2UykfckiG9a8nSdWJSqiOVcV-ICHhmGqN4gbrWKoCNlzYACP-sLxDS6cZN5Hb_8SZXktmUqRm3j0aCXIGE5XauWe6Lx4h29KyUnu4plJjaOG2s5Fg/s2352/Screenshot%20(4170).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1122" data-original-width="2352" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeg911zSNb0I9MFU4ReRV1_d8mE_YI9KUmC_7YAJJrlxIHTwout3FKy3_yJBTakcFVxP8pWyeDE2UykfckiG9a8nSdWJSqiOVcV-ICHhmGqN4gbrWKoCNlzYACP-sLxDS6cZN5Hb_8SZXktmUqRm3j0aCXIGE5XauWe6Lx4h29KyUnu4plJjaOG2s5Fg/w640-h306/Screenshot%20(4170).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Same report, violations table: I don't think it shows anything that isn't mapped. A lot of impacts just around the line of contact, and a lot of shells (70?) seen fired to, and explosions at, a spot 3-5 km NE of Avdivka, traveling NW-SE. That can't connect to any of the spots I had been looking at, but maybe to ones just off-frame to the north. I might have seen some of these outlying impacts but skipped them just for their location. But most of them have gone unseen, and likely include military targets.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfGQXHmrnhaaLtcMLbrMxtdhoSr4eAjVVIERq3L3xFOEKb3ioOXzqAXBlorDEQFCfvTWa0IMAkFU6xzG4m6xECSK8Jq5X4cN919t1T0vfoqG_AqVW8hMC2EvLVDVN2_sAde2Y_AXMKf2QdxjBlnoII86cuCf5thTgHME15E63iFVs-O4FtNJBgAM8HtA/s1295/Screenshot%20(4171).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="599" data-original-width="1295" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfGQXHmrnhaaLtcMLbrMxtdhoSr4eAjVVIERq3L3xFOEKb3ioOXzqAXBlorDEQFCfvTWa0IMAkFU6xzG4m6xECSK8Jq5X4cN919t1T0vfoqG_AqVW8hMC2EvLVDVN2_sAde2Y_AXMKf2QdxjBlnoII86cuCf5thTgHME15E63iFVs-O4FtNJBgAM8HtA/w640-h296/Screenshot%20(4171).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><div>This same day, Ukrainian shelling hit its highest level, over 1,400 explosions recorded across the Donbass (on both sides). The Donetsk Filtration Station was shut down by 2 of these shelling attacks, crippling water supply to much of the DPR, just as Ukraine apparently shut their spigot to the LPR, among other escalations of their assault on civilians in the breakaway republics. The day saw its first death in Donetsk city, but people had already been killed by shelling of the outlying villages and Horlivka, and in and around Lugansk, and it only seemed to be getting worse everywhere.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><a href="https://t.me/donbassr/11982">DPR Online would say this day</a>, citing Defense Minister Eduard Basurin "The situation at the front in Donbass is simply critical. ... A civilian was killed, <b>3 schools</b> were damaged, hospital No. 14 in Donetsk, 2 residential buildings, a power line, a 35 kV substation were damaged, the Donetsk filtering station was de-energized, the water supply of the republic was limited." Basurin was quoted as saying “In order to protect the civilian population, our defenders are forced to return fire from weapons not prohibited by the Minsk agreements, suppressing enemy firing points.” </div><div>Hospital: unverified. The 3rd school was somewhere else (no. 47 in Horlovka?) and as for the filtration station, see <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/01/donbass-shelling-and-russias-unprovoked.html">part 1</a>, last section. </div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>Kyiv's people predicted Russian false flag attacks, but of course the real evidence points to Kyiv's own forces. Is that why they were so confident in predicting Wagner false flags?</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">22 February: Grad rockets on Kyivsky District</span></b></div><div><div>15:10 - n.p. Vodiane - Donetsk (Kyiv region): 5 rockets were fired from the BM-21 "Grad", and 12 shells of 122 mm caliber.</div><div><a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/2327">https://t.me/militarydonetsk/2327</a></div></div><div><br /></div><div><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXoJ5dTDHK68E_c_F0NsAXU-U8dmFscUWvl2kLCmuQZvCOiCwGeUWrUOf0H6s--ays_A0tof9IVBM4alCi7cPjaSgj3VQgwL92XGytFr03GLp-yKle7qCmwe7p1Wj9N_WPLps8hgpkg_4jjb1n-Exu45KuqbAdRDVSkowdE0tCYf2pYr2HsKk7csSSQw/s1307/Screenshot%20(4065).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="731" data-original-width="1307" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXoJ5dTDHK68E_c_F0NsAXU-U8dmFscUWvl2kLCmuQZvCOiCwGeUWrUOf0H6s--ays_A0tof9IVBM4alCi7cPjaSgj3VQgwL92XGytFr03GLp-yKle7qCmwe7p1Wj9N_WPLps8hgpkg_4jjb1n-Exu45KuqbAdRDVSkowdE0tCYf2pYr2HsKk7csSSQw/w400-h224/Screenshot%20(4065).png" width="400" /></a></div></b></div><div><a href="https://t.me/TK_Union/7149">https://t.me/TK_Union/7149</a> </div><div><div><a href="https://t.me/dnronline/57978">https://t.me/dnronline/57978</a></div><div>"For the first time since May 2018, when shelling the Donetsk People's Republic, the enemy used rocket artillery ... Ukrainian militants from the positions of the 56th motorized infantry brigade opened fire from a multiple launch rocket system BM-21 "Grad" in the Kievsky district of Donetsk, firing FIVE missiles."</div></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://t.me/nm_dnr/6298">https://t.me/nm_dnr/6298</a></div><div><a href="https://rutube.ru/video/24b42d8b4c9ff87a57e54c1bd28f7aa5/">Вооруженные силы Украины впервые с 2018 года применили РСЗО БМ-21 смотреть онлайн видео от Пресс служба УНМ ДНР в хорошем качестве. (rutube.ru)</a></div><div>"From the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine located in N. p. Vodyanoe in the Kievsky district of Donetsk, the enemy fired 5 rockets from BM-21 installations and 12 shells of 122-mm caliber. As a result of the shelling, <b>the administrative building was damaged.</b>"</div><div><br /></div><div>2 damage spots are shown: mainly a red brick place with trees, and also an apartment building where a woman speaks. The latter is too general to locate, and the former doesn't look like the main city admin. building at 48.0159713,37.7995546, which is not quite in the Kyivsky district. Another that is: 36 Kyivskyi ave. - 48.0475702,37.7774067 - damaged by shelling on 6 March - also not a clear fit - not bare red brick. No location, no directions set, no analysis. </div><div><br /></div><div>Despite the escalation to Grads rockets and maybe to more central locations, there don't seem to be many attacks on the city this day. It was quality over quantity. </div><div><br /></div><div>23 February report, covering the 22nd, is the last regular SMM report with mapped violations.</div><div><a href="https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512872">OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) Daily Report 42/2022 issued on 23 February 2022 | OSCE</a></div><div>Violations table: from a SMM position "about 3km WSW of Donetsk central railway station (non-government-controlled), 6km NW of Donetsk (city center)" was heard: </div><div>8-10km S 1 Explosion, Undetermined nature, 22-Feb, 10:55</div><div>8-10km S, 2 Explosions, Undetermined nature, 22-Feb, 10:59-11:00</div><div>Then looking separate but connected: </div><div><div>4-6km NW Heard 6 Explosion Undetermined, Artillery (type N/K) 21-Feb, 18:31-18:47</div></div><div><br /></div><div>maps out so ...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvhqpiKtMB17oYMzcMlw_thCgGumWkTo6_UNgGzk1dLhxTN-2Fp66lO0Wx6EI1o0DWx54XVzwQ5b5bvPTcWysTuiGq9VrwhB6ihXQLwSMe698oKVCmtJvkf2v3YiM8Q8RfK6QBYhNEjZLjdeVXvFSk2TrIU2iBrYS8diGwlYiUmZ0_nfhU6rdzmQkz_g/s904/Screenshot%20(4225).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="904" height="602" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvhqpiKtMB17oYMzcMlw_thCgGumWkTo6_UNgGzk1dLhxTN-2Fp66lO0Wx6EI1o0DWx54XVzwQ5b5bvPTcWysTuiGq9VrwhB6ihXQLwSMe698oKVCmtJvkf2v3YiM8Q8RfK6QBYhNEjZLjdeVXvFSk2TrIU2iBrYS8diGwlYiUmZ0_nfhU6rdzmQkz_g/w640-h602/Screenshot%20(4225).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Any grad shelling in the Kyisky district - around 3pm or any time - went unnoticed.</b> An explosion around Pisky isn't explained in the table, that I found. The rest were observed from the given spot - 3 explosions in Petrovsky around 47.9520778,37.7029001 (residential) - six around Spartak and the airport - not AT the shown spot or any one spot, just estimated around there.</div><div><br /></div><div>DPR-linked reports of attacks in these areas:</div><div>Pisky explosion as mapped: not mentioned? Likely outgoing DPR fire. It was mostly Ukrainian-held. </div><div><div>Petrovsky: 18:40 - n.p. Maryinka - Donetsk (Trudovskaya village): 16 mines were fired with a caliber of 120mm;</div><div>https://t.me/dnronline/57985</div></div><div>Trudovskaya is a big portion of the Petrovsky district, so possibly the same spot the SMM estimated then mapped, but the times don't match - 10:50-11 am vs. 6:40 pm. Somehow there's no overlap in reportage here. </div><div>Shelling of Spartak, the Airport, and "Volvo Center" ruins near Pisky (likely position for DPR fighters) don't seem to come up at the SMM's times - 6 blasts near the airport at 6:30-6:47 pm. That's when the JCCC reports 16 blasts in Petrovsky instead (6:40). Intead, they report it heating up later that night or early on the 23rd. </div><div><div>23 early https://t.me/militarydonetsk/2337</div><div>Before dawn, the formation of Zelensky from positions located in the settlements Avdiivka and Vodyanoye, fanned out (fired on) the territory of the Donetsk airport, the Volvo center and the settlement Spartak with mortar fire. Released about 15 82-mm mines.</div><div>https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/6081</div><div>On the night of February 22 to 23, the Ukrainian Armed Forces opened fire from 82-mm mortars on the village of Spartak. The fire of Ukrainian militants damaged the summer kitchen, which started a fire.</div></div><div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">23-24 February</span></b></p><p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-23-22/h_09b7af6b1a29e3e5091ce1210b548ae8">CNN, 23 February</a>: "Russian state news reported on Thursday that Ukrainian security forces have shelled the pro-Moscow region of Donetsk ... Russian state television also reported ... CNN could not immediately verify" - probably referring to the previous day's escalation of shelling central Donetsk with GRAD rockets ...and for good measure, CNN reminded readers that "<b>The US State Department has warned that Russia may use so-called false flags, including claims that Ukraine is attacking Donetsk, to justify an invasion." </b></p><div>No escalation of shelling in Donetsk city the 23rd - the worst seemed to be in Lugansk and worse yet at nearby Alchev'sk. Jacques Baud: "The Ukrainian artillery bombardment of the Donbass population continued, and, on 23 February, the two Republics asked for military assistance from Russia. On 24 February, Vladimir Putin invoked Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which provides for mutual military assistance in the framework of a defensive alliance." </div><div><br /></div><div>On that given basis, tanks rolled into Ukraine on multiple fronts the following day. And that was "unprovoked," as they say. but once Russia had invaded, Ukraine's own next-phase contingency plans would go into effect, and <b>these plans apparently included<i> steady, mid-scale shelling of urban centers, residences, schools, hospitals, etc. across the Peoples' Republics. </i></b>From the 24th forward, I'll skip external news reports and commentary, and stick to shelling incidents as reported (with some included commentary), and especially as <i>shown</i>. </div></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">24 February: </span></b><b><span style="font-size: large;">Putilovka microdistrict Clobbered </span></b></div><div><div><b>24A) Zasyadko Ave.</b></div><div>Donbass Reshaet (Donbass Decides), in Telegram:</div><div>"During today's shelling of the Putilovka microdistrict in the north of Donetsk, four people were injured - two women and two men. There are large blood stains near the store on Zasyadko Avenue. The facade of the store itself is badly damaged, almost all the windows in the house where it is located have been blown out." Night time video included. <a href="https://t.me/donbassr/12889">https://t.me/donbassr/12889</a></div></div><div>the Putilovka microdistrict is in Kyivsky district - more central than the located shelling so far. Geolocated to 8 Zasyadko Ave. - 48.0549697,37.7795966 - Yandex 2010 street view: upper right in the plate below.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjieY1-cBLwOah4ZP1AiLmChQEZmNTzqiMSbZeIDev-wnbNlqYlgN3kAk4YWihmgAhZOkSxpzp9YoU0pLI2tt6HIe9ycVfKvjagxTKgtoJsFaP6U-t2xc4KjlyrjkgOUTaDIbhZZKvz748_j_W7jZJ3vBmFEJzV0tlEuC-lIBeGDI3bN2csDnClXB4GAQ/s1217/Screenshot%20(4083).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1151" data-original-width="1217" height="606" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjieY1-cBLwOah4ZP1AiLmChQEZmNTzqiMSbZeIDev-wnbNlqYlgN3kAk4YWihmgAhZOkSxpzp9YoU0pLI2tt6HIe9ycVfKvjagxTKgtoJsFaP6U-t2xc4KjlyrjkgOUTaDIbhZZKvz748_j_W7jZJ3vBmFEJzV0tlEuC-lIBeGDI3bN2csDnClXB4GAQ/w640-h606/Screenshot%20(4083).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><div>copious blood across the shop stairs (not shown here) - frag marks seen across the stairs, lower wall - more intense shrapnel damage visible at bottom of the stairs, right edge, debris from the stairs piled up the same right edge of the stairs, and a planter just around the corner is smashed apart. The blood on the stairs from people who didn't die probably means lower body injuries, from other low-flying fragments, like those into the stairs and planter. Low fragments, including into the pavement, lower walls and legs happen behind an angled shell detonation. This happening on the north side of the street suggests behind is <b>partly north</b>. The way some debris is piled up the stairs along the edge means the impact was a bit west of that edge, but it doesn't set the overall trajectory. Still, a bit from the northeast seems possible.</div><div><br /></div><div>Various photos: <a href="https://t.me/nm_dnr/6380">https://t.me/nm_dnr/6380</a></div><div><div><a href="https://dnr-sckk.ru/fotoreportazh-posledstviya-obstrela-g-doneck-kievskij-rajon/">Photos. Consequences of the shelling of Donetsk (Kiev district) - DPR Representative Office in the JCCC (dnr-sckk.ru)</a></div><div>Several impacts shown at given addresses on Zasyadko Street, (incl. 10a, <b>City Specialized Children's Home</b>), Aristova Street, Kievsky Ave - some readings are shown - not northwest but rather due north at Zasyadko 6 (2 impacts, one by a tree and one at the edge of the roof) AND some from WNW - (maybe just one impact at Zasyadko 8 a bit west of where I estimated, with a pothole coincidentally about where I had the impact - <i>or </i>2 shells hit, both in the street. review pending.)</div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>24B)</b> <b><u>Children's Hospital</u></b></span></div><div>"Being unable to stop the advance of the People's Militia forces, Ukrainian punishers take out their anger on the civilian population - the city children's clinical hospital suffered from their fire." <a href="https://t.me/nm_dnr/6374">https://t.me/nm_dnr/6374</a></div><div><br /></div><div>"A correspondent of the Donbass decides channel captured how Donetsk City Children's Clinical Hospital No. 1 and two adjacent houses look like after yesterday's shelling. This is only a small part of the buildings damaged by the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the past two days in the Putilovka microdistrict." <a href="https://t.me/donbassr/13115">https://t.me/donbassr/13115</a></div></div><div><br /></div><div>Location: city children's hospital in the Kievsky district, 61 Kyiv Prospekt, 48.0549526,37.777608</div><div>2 points of damage shown at the hospital, both to the west-facing main wall, plus at least two others I can't place yet. 1) a direct impact on the upper north corner with oblique frag marks beneath it, of walls facing north and west = <b>from the north & west.</b> 2) a ground impact somewhere along the facade has a band of frag marks that angles up to the right = <b>from the north & west. </b> The band seems to curve as if it were angled somewhat into the wall, not alongside it. That's from the north and the west. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhckStMc9xBVbRJx_-8hRq8oMtAdSyMxwcLwAmb9gnd6jGS6_fvk-1ghExDc9_CxrRPZH4VcZDKDR1xBGE9pk23oezAz-4DHbAHH1nJVZFyIzltjpcf8JjY5rG2C59h1rsH2r-yM_YoKzvj1qvz0O-DO_IBw7gHWwL1iLzhBQe6do34TTaQ92Kj2-Zkuw/s1810/Screenshot%20(4092).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1810" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhckStMc9xBVbRJx_-8hRq8oMtAdSyMxwcLwAmb9gnd6jGS6_fvk-1ghExDc9_CxrRPZH4VcZDKDR1xBGE9pk23oezAz-4DHbAHH1nJVZFyIzltjpcf8JjY5rG2C59h1rsH2r-yM_YoKzvj1qvz0O-DO_IBw7gHWwL1iLzhBQe6do34TTaQ92Kj2-Zkuw/w640-h290/Screenshot%20(4092).png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div>Crater near north end = another shell. I don't see it connecting with the frag marks so far ahead, but perhaps - 2 or 3 shells total.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivCoaXUqBhntDVoXB__o54622DSzXOi7a7F6b6IDyykdXq8SmXbczssuP4_h7SCXkkDuIe5zrjS3ZdT5TsAtPJEbwGiqt2tGoo5VkxvZ3khnnIMW6eqCNzvhHthr8AmKZn8AN9bNvKwTZZUfXMOAjZfIkFAc9ke_PPHuut5UFd32CgbJ4Gcc1B6sDzmA/s1280/photo_2023-01-23_19-09-34.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1280" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivCoaXUqBhntDVoXB__o54622DSzXOi7a7F6b6IDyykdXq8SmXbczssuP4_h7SCXkkDuIe5zrjS3ZdT5TsAtPJEbwGiqt2tGoo5VkxvZ3khnnIMW6eqCNzvhHthr8AmKZn8AN9bNvKwTZZUfXMOAjZfIkFAc9ke_PPHuut5UFd32CgbJ4Gcc1B6sDzmA/w640-h480/photo_2023-01-23_19-09-34.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Frag pattern start vs. full, for comparison below. The same hospital would suffer a second attack, again it seems with 2 shells, a week later (see below, March 6). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZCZ_Q1ab6cTb4d__mzNKNazPp0YnMDa_7rtBlje1yBgpyihKelgtxlJOUqrlocbwONaE8mhS2pFcu2YRH9Vlvi7FYOV7OYZXEzWIFOtSfzmfdI0CASJXwzDMY4bOH2UxVIHAeSiHdesl8j0zVpBkv9U5RwbqPmoc8xA1xImB5MmX3wyghAzeOt8oFcw/s1738/Screenshot%20(4091).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="624" data-original-width="1738" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZCZ_Q1ab6cTb4d__mzNKNazPp0YnMDa_7rtBlje1yBgpyihKelgtxlJOUqrlocbwONaE8mhS2pFcu2YRH9Vlvi7FYOV7OYZXEzWIFOtSfzmfdI0CASJXwzDMY4bOH2UxVIHAeSiHdesl8j0zVpBkv9U5RwbqPmoc8xA1xImB5MmX3wyghAzeOt8oFcw/w640-h230/Screenshot%20(4091).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR5zmUl-hK8-CJRCkV-a_-PsT79VqkHtmKUVQHy_6ksY7DFurmQuF32ept9v52eelGI5tiIWWSA31-wMIQpMDXGdI3tsro_JWZCwCI2q8BMXdm5OYh-rQwgB_HH42yMq0BMwkJKQ5tAA18W7R3iOy28G4-HGo3fAKIJiaPcOI3gPxX98JfGpy_dTYXZg/s1010/Screenshot%20(4196).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="666" data-original-width="1010" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR5zmUl-hK8-CJRCkV-a_-PsT79VqkHtmKUVQHy_6ksY7DFurmQuF32ept9v52eelGI5tiIWWSA31-wMIQpMDXGdI3tsro_JWZCwCI2q8BMXdm5OYh-rQwgB_HH42yMq0BMwkJKQ5tAA18W7R3iOy28G4-HGo3fAKIJiaPcOI3gPxX98JfGpy_dTYXZg/s320/Screenshot%20(4196).png" width="320" /></a></div><b>At least EIGHT residential buildings and 2 centers for children were damaged with quite a few shells. This was no accident.</b> There are some provided visuals, not placed. But anyone bored might try with the help of these given addresses: <a href="https://t.me/nm_dnr/6380">https://t.me/nm_dnr/6380</a> As a result of massive shelling by the VFU in the Kievsky district of Donetsk, houses were damaged at Kyivsky ave 61 (children's hospital), 63 (just north at 48.0561814,37.7781431); st. Aristova 1, 2, 3, and off the street, 7 (next entry) and st. Zasyadko 4, 5, 6, 8 (as covered above). Oh, and they missed Zasyadko 10 or 10a with the specialized children's home. All but the last mapped at right. I might come back correlate some scenes, assess some damage. One more for now...</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>24C) Donetsk College of Restaurant Service and Trade</b></div><div><a href="https://t.me/donbassr/13108">https://t.me/donbassr/13108</a></div><div>A few years ago, a Ukrainian shell flew into the Donetsk College of Restaurant Service and Trade, which is located in the north of the city. Yesterday, a new shell of the Armed Forces of Ukraine repeated the same trajectory and hit the same place.</div><div><br /></div><div>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6380 - photo of this alongside other damage, posted the 24th, suggesting it happened then, as do the above sources. </div><div><br /></div><div>Location: Aristova 7, but not really on that street - about 80m north of the hospital, 24B.</div><div><a href="https://www.google.com/maps/place/%D0%94%D0%9E%D0%9D%D0%95%D0%A6%D0%9A%D0%9E%D0%95+%D0%92%D0%AB%D0%A1%D0%A8%D0%95%D0%95+%D0%9F%D0%A0%D0%9E%D0%A4%D0%95%D0%A1%D0%A1%D0%98%D0%9E%D0%9D%D0%90%D0%9B%D0%AC%D0%9D%D0%9E%D0%95+%D0%A3%D0%A7%D0%98%D0%9B%D0%98%D0%A9%D0%95+%D0%A0%D0%95%D0%A1%D0%A2%D0%9E%D0%A0%D0%90%D0%9D%D0%9D%D0%9E%D0%93%D0%9E+%D0%A1%D0%95%D0%A0%D0%92%D0%98%D0%A1%D0%90+%D0%98+%D0%A2%D0%9E%D0%A0%D0%93%D0%9E%D0%92%D0%9B%D0%98/@48.0569715,37.7791422,240m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m13!1m7!3m6!1s0x0:0xd9a6e5e85adf9e82!2zNDjCsDAzJzE3LjgiTiAzN8KwNDYnMzkuNCJF!3b1!8m2!3d48.0549526!4d37.777608!3m4!1s0x40e085368c246c31:0x82e3262cddef11e0!8m2!3d48.0567169!4d37.7790892">ДОНЕЦКОЕ ВЫСШЕЕ ПРОФЕССИОНАЛЬНОЕ УЧИЛИЩЕ РЕСТОРАННОГО СЕРВИСА И ТОРГОВЛИ - Google Maps</a></div><div>front entrance faces south, looks fine. Damage is probably to the north-facing back side, with some indication it came from the right - there's a radial "spalsh" pattern centered on the impact point - for that to happen, the acute-angled side has to be to the right, or the shell arrived from the right = west. West + north would again = <b>northwest.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcrm-GaUdJSsnxYASjVCdj56xxPELBBZilBZ401s-lMd2IONXy_PhXkyy12yqLXtQi_-nSYTAUjQlgfxjfNTJsl3bWVYqqo1Mix4Tm8F9dgIOIc1fSamV5EukTa4rBarJC2dbBszTw2PBjlJVUhYlrHWbW9ciI_iX3ythQVKWr4VIb8nGZ68NW7F10hg/s1688/Screenshot%20(4096).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="1688" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcrm-GaUdJSsnxYASjVCdj56xxPELBBZilBZ401s-lMd2IONXy_PhXkyy12yqLXtQi_-nSYTAUjQlgfxjfNTJsl3bWVYqqo1Mix4Tm8F9dgIOIc1fSamV5EukTa4rBarJC2dbBszTw2PBjlJVUhYlrHWbW9ciI_iX3ythQVKWr4VIb8nGZ68NW7F10hg/w640-h286/Screenshot%20(4096).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><div>more: https://t.me/nm_dnr/6397</div><div>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6396</div><div>On February 24, armed formations of Ukraine shelled the Kyiv district of the city of Donetsk. Being unable to stop the advance of the People's Militia forces, Ukrainian punishers take out their anger on the civilian population - the City Children's Clinical Hospital and the Lyceum of Restaurant Service and Trade, as well as the houses of local residents, suffered from their fire.</div></div><div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>24 Feb., other</b></div><div><b>24D) Letnaya street, Petrovsky district</b></div><div>"Consequences of the shelling of the Petrovsky district of Donetsk. The correspondent of the Donbass decides channel managed to film the destruction at 2, Letnaya Street. Apparently, it was a 120-mm mine." <a href="https://t.me/donbassr/12824">https://t.me/donbassr/12824</a></div><div><br /></div><div>That address is inside the district's circular center area, at 47.9454074,37.6210515</div><div>Video is low resolution, hard to say what was hit where. Better images form the same incident might help. If anyone runs across that, let me know.</div></div></div></div><div>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6357</div><div>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6392</div><div>ok - back/west side, impact quite near, blew out half the area marked green - frag pattern angling up to the right = from the left, which is <b>north, plus probably some east or west angle.</b> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG0kwzft-KUR6tR7NT-_RF2CiM-pTcukGpe1TnFe5CsmFiK9nPF2JBcZC7rddFFVPRXN55cL2jlElhEGHE9diZCJTkGd9_nffCElV7JsrQwy3-cIBpHp04cmUitOyt6-Gd1oY2yKMKJ2loVdf16xap-bCozObjCFrL44Gpyya7REVga3Tebad1MAzoUw/s1796/Screenshot%20(4190).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="1796" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG0kwzft-KUR6tR7NT-_RF2CiM-pTcukGpe1TnFe5CsmFiK9nPF2JBcZC7rddFFVPRXN55cL2jlElhEGHE9diZCJTkGd9_nffCElV7JsrQwy3-cIBpHp04cmUitOyt6-Gd1oY2yKMKJ2loVdf16xap-bCozObjCFrL44Gpyya7REVga3Tebad1MAzoUw/w640-h262/Screenshot%20(4190).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><div> </div></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX6Jcz8DPTkY3w_lpyjbUEcgzKhPLVdjSbtoCbCiX1VzCo9IMG2gFnyAiJZnmld1f1GNKQ0glriPBc5TzoxXZKgNeVbgUGODBJKL49RgjQYsr_3PrcN0t8qtnhXayL0ba8hDJx1MFJDsuFI0deB8YCbjij2BLBudHVWzMb8efPr8NgiRBVuewKnX4N9g/s960/photo_2023-01-16_01-45-06.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="960" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX6Jcz8DPTkY3w_lpyjbUEcgzKhPLVdjSbtoCbCiX1VzCo9IMG2gFnyAiJZnmld1f1GNKQ0glriPBc5TzoxXZKgNeVbgUGODBJKL49RgjQYsr_3PrcN0t8qtnhXayL0ba8hDJx1MFJDsuFI0deB8YCbjij2BLBudHVWzMb8efPr8NgiRBVuewKnX4N9g/w400-h329/photo_2023-01-16_01-45-06.jpg" width="400" /></a></div></div><div><div><div>https://t.me/donbassr/12844</div><div>This is today's arrival along Aristova Street in the Kievsky district of Donetsk. “It is quite possible, a mine,” said a subscriber of the Donbass decides channel, who sent us a photo.</div><div>The facade of the building was cut, glass was broken</div></div><div>Aristova 18? 48.0590447,37.7798402 - in Putilovka microdistrict</div><div>What seems to be an unrelated pothole dominates the view, but there seem to be dense frag marks on the distant, probably west-facing wall, from another and closer impact. If so, that shell was probably from the west (proximity to wall) and north (marks angle up to the right)</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">25 February</span></b></div><div><div><b>Kuibyshevsky district </b></div><div><b>25A) January 9th Street, house</b></div><div><div><div>https://t.me/militarydonetsk/2782</div><div>Arrival almost in the center of Donetsk near the stadium "Shakhtar" That didn't help locate this spot at all, suggesting Shaktar hotel and plaza near Donbass stadium. That's not where it is. </div></div></div><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwdrOHqxkehyS7o2FrcO4SNQ24ZEndkJ5S0M61prVD3aiQWznGb8V3xPKcL7kI8Q0pkBEPmRUgZPhmbHE90WA_0nNiIVAYemUCcJM00gPJZRBbNzMxcdYJJshlrP11vwbaGNr1cMgGlJLOZ_EO_8oW5PMP681pa-7uTiO--4kcdJ6hXJ_mY_if7yS9Ng/s1612/Screenshot%20(4033).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1072" data-original-width="1612" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwdrOHqxkehyS7o2FrcO4SNQ24ZEndkJ5S0M61prVD3aiQWznGb8V3xPKcL7kI8Q0pkBEPmRUgZPhmbHE90WA_0nNiIVAYemUCcJM00gPJZRBbNzMxcdYJJshlrP11vwbaGNr1cMgGlJLOZ_EO_8oW5PMP681pa-7uTiO--4kcdJ6hXJ_mY_if7yS9Ng/w400-h266/Screenshot%20(4033).png" width="400" /></a></div><div><div>https://t.me/chp_donetskv/9406</div><div>The results of today's shelling at 11.45 on January 9th Street (Margo Furniture Center).</div></div><div>Correct placement - big help. - 47.9974577,37.776183 - video compared to 2011 street view:</div><div><br /></div><div>This street runs NNW-SSE - view faces SSE - The band of fragment marks on the building at left angles up to the right (or forward, or SSE), suggesting a trajectory down the street, so fired from the NNW or similar (northwest, or north). Mapped with next entry.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>25B) January 9th Street, Auto repair shop</b></div><div>https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3397</div><div>Civilians were wounded as a result of shelling from Grad multiple launch rocket systems in the center of the Kuibyshev region.</div><div>Damage at Margo furniture (probably from this impact) + other impacts - one maybe just west in the garages there - impact from the NW as well (debris to the right and towards the camera, low, oblique marks on car) - perhaps the building north of that as well - some 3rd strike in presumably the same area.</div></div><div>See also: https://t.me/donbassr/12999 - https://t.me/donbassr/13004 </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu3g6SEPSDo1ID6JgyLqjrpAzuE1XOz-qSq1RJ4P_FHTRo2FxDMiWfsqRbCudXaXTqutSUkbUFd2fDG3sPaScSTgeuLCVEJAaCiT1ZRUMX87QOrFX93Q9MxnRt6BQCt_LW6iKMdd-LORo1TMZkQa_jpf6Qp9RE9vLr-j1TAzl-AojvAyHaXS2qaE32ig/s2047/Screenshot%20(4060).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="2047" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu3g6SEPSDo1ID6JgyLqjrpAzuE1XOz-qSq1RJ4P_FHTRo2FxDMiWfsqRbCudXaXTqutSUkbUFd2fDG3sPaScSTgeuLCVEJAaCiT1ZRUMX87QOrFX93Q9MxnRt6BQCt_LW6iKMdd-LORo1TMZkQa_jpf6Qp9RE9vLr-j1TAzl-AojvAyHaXS2qaE32ig/w640-h248/Screenshot%20(4060).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMgsHwSJ8ThHwTAZ6msEpAgTsVQRAgOa-pyZqoYB_JUO32Cz2vJEV5V6VuH3FXxYPTTlVO8ZWPpM443XEPjsr8KrVjhmJckIj8IuQz_3Udc6IiToIz0EEuuBIFdFWyjGJkZjJSnF7n4mmnrYA5YndpDXQGsNAdGHZd4pnlSe0ax4nycFAjAag5VzAjRA/s625/Screenshot%20(4186).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="625" data-original-width="393" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMgsHwSJ8ThHwTAZ6msEpAgTsVQRAgOa-pyZqoYB_JUO32Cz2vJEV5V6VuH3FXxYPTTlVO8ZWPpM443XEPjsr8KrVjhmJckIj8IuQz_3Udc6IiToIz0EEuuBIFdFWyjGJkZjJSnF7n4mmnrYA5YndpDXQGsNAdGHZd4pnlSe0ax4nycFAjAag5VzAjRA/w126-h200/Screenshot%20(4186).png" width="126" /></a></div><b>Homes along Kyivsky Prospect</b></div><div><b>25C) Kyivsky 63 again</b></div></div><div>"A resident of the Kievsky district of Donetsk was wounded by the fire of the Armed Forces of Ukraine A man was wounded as a result of the shelling in the Kievsky district of Donetsk at the address Kyiv prospect, 63 apt. 39. In serious condition, the victim was hospitalized at the Republican Trauma Center."</div></div><div>(<a href="https://t.me/nm_dnr/6397" style="font-size: large;">https://t.me/nm_dnr/6397</a>)</div><div><br /></div><div>In the nighttime video report that text goes with, a damaged balcony is specifically shown - not clear here, but blast and frag marks angle up to the left = origin from the right. Then an inset map shows fire was from the southwest. So this must be a west-facing wall, the shell impacting from the west and the left/south. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiHaEzzBQgIT9w5jlIbgJPJKUb8VwA--EqiucOjzWAPExBIDS3D5bCfhwqfDvR2Ecy-K7UwiOoN23gSLBuodjnwf17FA5KcouRRANIp4K43ARvZwLZgH9KRllRokeW5SkB3vetJqRF2JJQlMR6GsHCGfXIgR-Pke1KhP1bW3zicD7AuQ7LPH9295HOwA/s1291/Screenshot%20(4223).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="729" data-original-width="1291" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiHaEzzBQgIT9w5jlIbgJPJKUb8VwA--EqiucOjzWAPExBIDS3D5bCfhwqfDvR2Ecy-K7UwiOoN23gSLBuodjnwf17FA5KcouRRANIp4K43ARvZwLZgH9KRllRokeW5SkB3vetJqRF2JJQlMR6GsHCGfXIgR-Pke1KhP1bW3zicD7AuQ7LPH9295HOwA/w400-h226/Screenshot%20(4223).png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWIDog4dptn6z9O-FwvpVGsHHxi6xE0pc9PQh46Z54eTHFTq_hKn7aSe-Sz9zBpy0qS3BmhMoMb7DaQOsrLRZL9qJd5ohcOcH0IxNB67zLi_vGqQfaYMPd6HiSkuBUEFEHgOFUgdjt8eJM_-ZJkzY-P5tOd8OiI2ndHwg8HAgiSrBFDvdvh50hIscLMg/s1293/Screenshot%20(4222).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="723" data-original-width="1293" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWIDog4dptn6z9O-FwvpVGsHHxi6xE0pc9PQh46Z54eTHFTq_hKn7aSe-Sz9zBpy0qS3BmhMoMb7DaQOsrLRZL9qJd5ohcOcH0IxNB67zLi_vGqQfaYMPd6HiSkuBUEFEHgOFUgdjt8eJM_-ZJkzY-P5tOd8OiI2ndHwg8HAgiSrBFDvdvh50hIscLMg/w400-h224/Screenshot%20(4222).png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>I can't understand what the guy says, but ... I'm 98% sure this is <b>on the building's north side. </b>In a daytime view (below), the damage band is clearer. A hit from the left and into this wall WOULD be SW, but IS <b>northwest.</b> What the SW reading was based on is unclear. This video, thinking it was on the west side? </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpr2VM-X2TnTopovXVdfA-yamM8WfwT8R5gL248ZNvBaOx6zfvJW99uBUR3HjwYywYXB-4OfRVmIsRGBje-7-_cX_fP9c16Cyrd_svUqcQvaM3cMzTByyXcC9EOxG47PvTIlqffy5H9J_GTQpL60XCmS6WLLXSgC_m63rmFSJ-89uJNof5G-FJkRNdRg/s1280/photo_2023-01-26_18-57-25.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpr2VM-X2TnTopovXVdfA-yamM8WfwT8R5gL248ZNvBaOx6zfvJW99uBUR3HjwYywYXB-4OfRVmIsRGBje-7-_cX_fP9c16Cyrd_svUqcQvaM3cMzTByyXcC9EOxG47PvTIlqffy5H9J_GTQpL60XCmS6WLLXSgC_m63rmFSJ-89uJNof5G-FJkRNdRg/w640-h360/photo_2023-01-26_18-57-25.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyBfyT_bmHMDM63SpwrtIp_GExt6oQlEl5ZJXA81jjgvrc7ZOS2GHvEkrFOFxhHWH4cjJkhaVeoo1YnEyY2dd6cDLnoi0ig1plG9NQAdmYlA3hSzMZGr7fsm9ytdqvU3kbgyaXIhAZAPruvQUYhSWwiPpFUwyyxGszPMNWhfEjm5AlArRwL1neR3yE9A/s1297/Screenshot%20(4216).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="723" data-original-width="1297" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyBfyT_bmHMDM63SpwrtIp_GExt6oQlEl5ZJXA81jjgvrc7ZOS2GHvEkrFOFxhHWH4cjJkhaVeoo1YnEyY2dd6cDLnoi0ig1plG9NQAdmYlA3hSzMZGr7fsm9ytdqvU3kbgyaXIhAZAPruvQUYhSWwiPpFUwyyxGszPMNWhfEjm5AlArRwL1neR3yE9A/s320/Screenshot%20(4216).png" width="320" /></a></div><br />See the right side there: we're looking west across Kyivsky Ave. There's an elevated concrete whatever, kind of like an aqueduct (?). See next a later view SW down Kyiskyi from a bit north of here. It's that thing on the right. GM street view down the north face also matches for the 2 little shacks, other details. The west side does not match. At least it seemed that way on a quick review. Will double-check. Maybe. </div><div><br /></div><div>Note 63 Kyivsky has been hit already the day before. when the next-door children's hospital was attacked. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>25D) Tarkhanova 5a</b></div><div>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6417</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW5607BDe6EjGUz_thKmR11oonaES_juCSPtsqOYSfikT4aFcBE0yeFH892HNvXtdtZK4W3reOaf_0zB8wZuBDLstBz6ZCgxNHVCd59djba-4OxTXrifW4DT68G4niAqoquM1OtO4Um9AlLB6eAvtZcd9S3i1GoqfGIZ7ndlwHZTCEmiPSC_5frONGjw/s1280/photo_2023-01-26_17-13-07.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1280" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW5607BDe6EjGUz_thKmR11oonaES_juCSPtsqOYSfikT4aFcBE0yeFH892HNvXtdtZK4W3reOaf_0zB8wZuBDLstBz6ZCgxNHVCd59djba-4OxTXrifW4DT68G4niAqoquM1OtO4Um9AlLB6eAvtZcd9S3i1GoqfGIZ7ndlwHZTCEmiPSC_5frONGjw/s320/photo_2023-01-26_17-13-07.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>"Ukrainian militants continue to terrorize civilians in the Republic. Today, as a result of the shelling of residential buildings at the addresses: Kyiv Prospekt, 54 and 52, as well as Tarkhanova 5a, <b>a woman born in 1968 died</b>. In addition, three local residents were injured." That's just the second fatality I'm aware of inside city limits.</div><div> </div><div>Photos of severe home damage, killed woman at a house - must be Tarkhanova 5a: <a href="https://t.me/dnronline/58356">https://t.me/dnronline/58356</a></div><div><br /></div><div><div>Address location: 48.0599677,37.7738998</div><div><br /></div><div>5a unlabeled, probably on the back side of 5 - just a tiny shack with an outhouse half its size? As it's a sort of micro-house that's "out," I'll call it that either way. Fence badly punctured by fragments in a band sloping up to the left = from the right, roughly <b>up the street NW. </b> </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiSp1ylwe12UqwUX1DZUhVcLzcQwFIfklZisFLNTmFt4D5F7RaS8JgG9okyPi-D-PhUz90rWMY1CXpUacGrT0XnFg7UWHxyMRdLbYwIzkDfBJpxdFyjDF88h7NF8b9MS_zj2qHdpHLnTDxKhqlQMpuWVyF5X9HNY-kbNY0lakXreD_K-397FP2vHjGnA/s1608/Screenshot%20(4207).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="694" data-original-width="1608" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiSp1ylwe12UqwUX1DZUhVcLzcQwFIfklZisFLNTmFt4D5F7RaS8JgG9okyPi-D-PhUz90rWMY1CXpUacGrT0XnFg7UWHxyMRdLbYwIzkDfBJpxdFyjDF88h7NF8b9MS_zj2qHdpHLnTDxKhqlQMpuWVyF5X9HNY-kbNY0lakXreD_K-397FP2vHjGnA/w640-h276/Screenshot%20(4207).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Yellow outlines show where some concrete was knocked out of the fence, and some of it smacked into the outhouse. It's not hard to see this had to be on a line that slopes up, to the left, and towards the outhouse. That it happens so high up to the left of impact is what helps show the shell came from the right, up the street, or from the northwest. The fragments that punched through and punctured that poor woman to death - they all went on paths that testify to this truth about who killed her with their terrorist shelling. They're off somewhere to the northwest. </div><div><br /></div><div>Note: right down this street also points right to the damaged balcony at 63 Kyivsky, hit this same day, non-fatally injuring another resident. </div></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">26 February</span></b></div><div><div><div><div><b>26A) Kindergarten No. 251</b></div><div><a href="https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3414">https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3414</a></div><div>Ukrainian criminals continue their punitive operation against the children of Donbass. Kindergarten No. 251 in the Kievsky district of Donetsk (Buslaeva st., 35a).</div></div><div><br /></div><div>video https://t.me/donbassr/13231 </div><div><br /></div><div>48.061179,37.7783032 crater at NW corner - marks on west north and sides angle up from that corner - clear northwest origin. To the sides are curb damage (orange) and side-spraying debris (gold) that form a line - that should be perpendicular to the trajectory. That gives an unusually clear reading of roughly 118 degrees, <b>298 NW reverse azimuth. </b>That line runs from here back over the airport, to north of Vodiane, south of Umanske and right to the distant Orlivka, depending on range.</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-Ms54d-vbp31IwiBmBW-FedRjueoB6wymDs8578tBk2fhdcdlaWLXX48qkgx5oXkbSIHyzhmNAtl0JlAeYD91_-XfXYF23SzQUja0RUJobcrMXa1hagGRN6maqjA2N6jvrru_OIQ107jOdiRW6Q7r3WGVH39JpjB5UqJbuMfbu2-Ka3uICNF_wcocXw/s2158/Donetsk_2-26.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="974" data-original-width="2158" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-Ms54d-vbp31IwiBmBW-FedRjueoB6wymDs8578tBk2fhdcdlaWLXX48qkgx5oXkbSIHyzhmNAtl0JlAeYD91_-XfXYF23SzQUja0RUJobcrMXa1hagGRN6maqjA2N6jvrru_OIQ107jOdiRW6Q7r3WGVH39JpjB5UqJbuMfbu2-Ka3uICNF_wcocXw/w640-h288/Donetsk_2-26.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>26B) 5 Myronova St. </b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR4XDEvGQqSgjBGX1z43gZHk5t8VnEYtP9afVa2UsdTyqG0che5KwiagP8nNT73z2SXxoOuUIRiMzo4PPx2RzfUu99QPh2pRgvYtgF9_lUhpdhx2WJWoxwz1I3fhRKjtKNeyKJjIAV31eurqObKoyx2y6j9waY15Ly7RlMvrVyO8K_bmFOiQw_ODg4ww/s1280/photo_2023-01-12_06-04-57.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="960" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR4XDEvGQqSgjBGX1z43gZHk5t8VnEYtP9afVa2UsdTyqG0che5KwiagP8nNT73z2SXxoOuUIRiMzo4PPx2RzfUu99QPh2pRgvYtgF9_lUhpdhx2WJWoxwz1I3fhRKjtKNeyKJjIAV31eurqObKoyx2y6j9waY15Ly7RlMvrVyO8K_bmFOiQw_ODg4ww/w300-h400/photo_2023-01-12_06-04-57.jpg" width="300" /></a></div><a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/3322">https://t.me/militarydonetsk/3322</a></div><div>The consequences of the massive shelling of the Kievsky district of Donetsk tonight." Massive corner damage - shown at right with no location clues past the district. </div><div>seen later: 2/28 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3453</div><p>"In the Kiev region on the street. Mironov, the forces of the employees of the KKP "Donetskgorsvet" restore lighting after a massive shelling."</p><p>There's a 2011 street view where we can see this is 5 Myronova St - 48.0444601,37.7772538 - about a kilometer south of the kindergarten 251. Northwest corner impacted = <b>probably from the northwest</b>, but perhaps the west or north.</p><p>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6480</p><p>This time, the Kyiv district of Donetsk was subjected to shelling. As a result of the shelling on February 26, civilian infrastructure was seriously damaged: a bus stop, houses of civilians, a boiler house, a heating main. As a result of damage to the Mayak substation, more than 5,500 people were left without electricity.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9lQ34Z6oy228icv3CydXhzu8gu3WrSJxJnJrueId0L9XF9evtybrfl3RQjML8Kh6FN9dajQU9Ctqsmdt4uX-IyFSzAqV_lZKOtjVIkxUkzDXLBsCaW-JQJXzo0Dd6yHUiXwlbhGytPvVjGYOo5f_2YfuWfSxyOCNcCQNZcSJ7rjyZrVcsA6JNuHoUvQ/s1420/Screenshot%20(4034).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1172" data-original-width="1420" height="528" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9lQ34Z6oy228icv3CydXhzu8gu3WrSJxJnJrueId0L9XF9evtybrfl3RQjML8Kh6FN9dajQU9Ctqsmdt4uX-IyFSzAqV_lZKOtjVIkxUkzDXLBsCaW-JQJXzo0Dd6yHUiXwlbhGytPvVjGYOo5f_2YfuWfSxyOCNcCQNZcSJ7rjyZrVcsA6JNuHoUvQ/w640-h528/Screenshot%20(4034).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div></div></div></div><div><div><b>26C) Listoprokatchikov st.</b></div><div>https://t.me/militarydonetsk/3176</div><div>Consequences of the shelling of Donetsk by Ukrainian armed groups. st. Listoprokatchikov, 10</div><div><a href="https://yandex.com/maps/142/donetsk/house/vulytsia_lystoprokatnykiv_10/Z04YcQ9oSUwGQFpifXx3c3hhZg==/?l=sat%2Cskl&ll=37.787651%2C48.062722&rl=37.810086%2C48.004603~-0.001488%2C0.020425&z=19">Vulytsia Lystoprokatnykiv, 10 — Yandex Maps</a></div><div>Difficult to establish what was hit where, but I'll include it on the map below.</div></div><div><p>renovated apartments - this address among those noted in August 2021 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/1752</p><p>"In a residential building on the street. Listoprokatchikov, 10, which was repeatedly subjected to shelling, repairs are in full swing. New doors and windows were installed for the residents, they started facing the walls of entrances and apartments, replacing internal communications, and the next step is the external repair of the facade."</p><p>https://www.google.com/maps/place/Lystoprokatnykiv+St,+10,+Donetsk,+Donets'ka+oblast,+Ukraine,+83000/@48.0622652,37.7704727,3833m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x40e085391f4b34b5:0x76ed6a7e31f7c606!8m2!3d48.0622616!4d37.7879822</p></div><p>All 26 Feb. placed impacts on a map - the kindergarten 251 reading is the clearer one, not exactly this line drawn but very close. 5 Myronova St. is pretty open, including to a line convergent with the other. The nearest settlement where they might intersect is Vodyane. That's enough to call it the "likely" attack area.</p><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDKj0Rm6hWhtIyPNpiO5cq3rRRja6MewnK1KNIhCvdNtNH2lksrDkgFbgu3dCQMRvygdPcKF_vYRbfVi_ZY1iZqdQiT8gf-cbaYu7VQCyLATi-jHxW3qSOx3o5qgIr4VDX-5mOEwnPgPIOUv1f_ty-4ntC7HK8lHJEmZpki9FFGjPGn5QuHNeojfWg9w/s1844/Screenshot%20(4072).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1844" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDKj0Rm6hWhtIyPNpiO5cq3rRRja6MewnK1KNIhCvdNtNH2lksrDkgFbgu3dCQMRvygdPcKF_vYRbfVi_ZY1iZqdQiT8gf-cbaYu7VQCyLATi-jHxW3qSOx3o5qgIr4VDX-5mOEwnPgPIOUv1f_ty-4ntC7HK8lHJEmZpki9FFGjPGn5QuHNeojfWg9w/w640-h310/Screenshot%20(4072).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Other</div><div><div>https://dnr-sckk.ru/fotoreportazh-posledstviya-obstrela-g-doneck-kievskij-rajon-2/</div><div>Kievsky Ave., 23/13, a 16-year-old resident was injured - a mine-explosive injury, a scalped wound to the occipital region.</div><div><br /></div><div>🏠Damage/destruction:</div><div><br /></div><div>▶️ 4 Garage Street, warehouses damaged;</div><div>▶️Politboytsov Street, 10, the boiler house, the heating main were damaged;</div><div>▶️Politboytsov Street, 10b, the boiler house of se Donbassteploenergo was damaged," glazing, power transmission tower;</div><div>▶️TP "Mayak" was damaged, 26 TP, 5500 subscribers without electricity were de-energized;</div><div>▶️Kievsky Avenue, 23, damaged trolleys for the movement of urban transport;</div><div>▶️Mironova Str., 5, apt. 15, significant damage to the living quarters of the apartment;</div><div>▶️Mironov Street, 5, apt. 12, the glazing was damaged;</div><div>▶️Mironova str., 7 kv.11 – glazing, gas pipe were damaged.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>I didn't find any visuals for the 27th. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">28 February </span></b></div><div><b>28A) Korpus 21K1</b></div><div>https://t.me/militarydonetsk/3793</div><div>Donetsk. Panfilov street. Wisniewski hospital area</div><div>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6540</div><div>https://t.me/militarydonetsk/3787</div><div>https://t.me/militarydonetsk/3781</div><div>https://t.me/chp_donetskv/9891</div><div>https://t.me/donbassr/13639</div><div>Location: 48.0208912,37.7820093 - southwestern Kyivsky, near city center - The westernmost tower #1 at "Korpus" residential complex, 21 Paniflova ave. - building labeled 21K1 on Yandex maps - trees and lot with small buildings is to the north. Cars burn on the north side, facade invisible - east face intact up to the corner. Later view of north face damage shows impact was partly from the north, at the northwest corner, and impacted from the right = west. <b>Another northwest-origin impact.</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiefzTKjXxAW7w15fuFbOwAmyQkkGH5T5JAh47mXbQnz3ToDGmhBPKPGoc1sMIUVlfXlE64XOm19GLX6PSCndGlzBdlJ0_Ij35URK3QDpi7hZEk8EULuPFJEAeLOe32R3967TMbAtG4VFXw54odppkOH7aZx7TIYO3e8SpIVTEIMqrfck8TUBIR2qcKag/s1430/Screenshot%20(4053).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="1430" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiefzTKjXxAW7w15fuFbOwAmyQkkGH5T5JAh47mXbQnz3ToDGmhBPKPGoc1sMIUVlfXlE64XOm19GLX6PSCndGlzBdlJ0_Ij35URK3QDpi7hZEk8EULuPFJEAeLOe32R3967TMbAtG4VFXw54odppkOH7aZx7TIYO3e8SpIVTEIMqrfck8TUBIR2qcKag/w640-h264/Screenshot%20(4053).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibPS-gM06mnqKGY41KqUPjKLzz309V98NtOq5M7P1D1AwwCbzo9T78sTW9iedj753s-2c6NvO6qPFwxb8CYZQYx8khz6LOV2Vy05qdqWhJFyqu0jzJ9IWFw_Ccx-S1k_0qcrm6tUuMNuYs-mZvx7CsK0UWZrv8ni9l2ZGZ56m534nnp0LBKJy8rvEhnA/s794/Screenshot%20(4075).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="718" data-original-width="794" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibPS-gM06mnqKGY41KqUPjKLzz309V98NtOq5M7P1D1AwwCbzo9T78sTW9iedj753s-2c6NvO6qPFwxb8CYZQYx8khz6LOV2Vy05qdqWhJFyqu0jzJ9IWFw_Ccx-S1k_0qcrm6tUuMNuYs-mZvx7CsK0UWZrv8ni9l2ZGZ56m534nnp0LBKJy8rvEhnA/s320/Screenshot%20(4075).png" width="320" /></a></div>28B) Lavreneva Street</b></div><div>distance view https://t.me/donbassr/13632</div><div>https://t.me/donbassr/13671</div><div><br /></div><div>"Today, during the shelling (https://t.me/donbassr/13632) of the Kievsky district of Donetsk, among others, several houses on Lavreneva Street were damaged. House number 9 got the most" (shown). There was just light damage next door (north) at #11, tearing up the green awning we can see in satellite views. "The owner's car was also wrecked. And his neighbor Sergei's house was less damaged, but the Ukrainian shell destroyed three cars - his and his son-in-law, with whom they were in the house at the time of the shelling."</div><div>Loc: 48.0395265,37.7952317 - Google Maps street view matches video scene. Lavraneva street runs N-S, with #11 and 9 on the east side, facing west. Of course. <b>Impact partly from the west, probably + north. </b></div><div><br /></div><div><b>28C) Same place - double tap</b></div><div><br /></div><div>https://t.me/donbassr/13671 (still) ... As Sergei told the Donbass channel, when the shelling stopped, all the neighbors went out into the street to find out if everyone was alive and well. The Ministry of Emergency Situations and gas workers arrived. And then, <b>30 minutes after the first shelling, the street was again covered with shells.</b></div><div><br /></div><div>One of them landed about a hundred meters from the people who left, in the place where the gas workers were standing. (https://t.me/donbassr/13665) <b>One of them, 31-year-old Alexander Shevchuk, died. Moreover, in front of his father, who was wounded, like another of their colleagues.</b></div><div><br /></div><div>That seems to say the father was working together with his son, and had to watch his son die - one of the hardest things to go through, as I hear. That's fatality number 3 that I know of. </div><div><br /></div><div>Killed worker, impact crater shown here: <a href="https://t.me/donbassr/13665">https://t.me/donbassr/13665</a></div><div>"AFU destroys the infrastructure of Donetsk and kills its inhabitants Today, during restoration work in the Kiev region, a Donbassgaz brigade came under fire (https://t.me/donbassr/13632). ◾️One locksmith died. Two were severely wounded. The owner of the house, near which the tragedy occurred, Galina Horkhula, says that at that time her mother was in it with her grandchildren 5 and 15 years old. Luckily, they were unharmed."</div><div><br /></div><div>The impact in the street is at 48.038796,37.7950508 - a ways south from the damaged homes - view across from 2 Lavraneva st. & 23 Novomoskovskyi lane. Damage and direction not visually clear, but probably the same as the earlier strike. Mr. Shevchuk's covered body seems to be right at that corner just a few meters away.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3x2rbKpTcSMurbyfd4rG0sxWwsd1uf5WRsqE9u2kT_LyrIjHuXNc6Thq9xUv0g6-l9Ji_MP4MI-c6q6kmVKQl-sD6Gtn8xqjIQHGJpYZB_qHaakDb_CvFTAwgDn1Xxxc1dbBPM7wHWzwY33jL3a6oZq_xNJ9TrpmU_NJZutVqXLAL7Od2foqB3gFZhw/s1720/Screenshot%20(4200).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1720" data-original-width="1408" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3x2rbKpTcSMurbyfd4rG0sxWwsd1uf5WRsqE9u2kT_LyrIjHuXNc6Thq9xUv0g6-l9Ji_MP4MI-c6q6kmVKQl-sD6Gtn8xqjIQHGJpYZB_qHaakDb_CvFTAwgDn1Xxxc1dbBPM7wHWzwY33jL3a6oZq_xNJ9TrpmU_NJZutVqXLAL7Od2foqB3gFZhw/w524-h640/Screenshot%20(4200).png" width="524" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>28 February, Mine 29</b></div><div><div>Mine 29, Petrovsky district - home destroyed</div><div>https://t.me/donbassr/13664</div><div>As a result of the night shelling of the village of mine No. 29 in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk, a family of 5 people found themselves homeless. They say you can't stop time. The clock in the destroyed house shows the exact time of the shelling: 01:55. A family of five lived in the houses at 4/3 Yunatov Street, including a 13-year-old teenager.</div><div>Address at 47.9554004,37.6599284</div></div><div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhISr-qUBHyXTknMU0bnFA8cvc2QhAfBYjHHlv6CJC5Ayg86czXJfyEdORy92hbVhHw3iPLwVmAu8f7JtGjqT_rlYNH96mH9ONkclWOyvOhNHP6-ZlITMko6-rfY8gh8gRpinxuFHITyni8wY1UqtxqcDfruxaFYw0dwCJsu_P3qbQVk7rihI9ns6GHWA/s1301/Screenshot%20(4183).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="733" data-original-width="1301" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhISr-qUBHyXTknMU0bnFA8cvc2QhAfBYjHHlv6CJC5Ayg86czXJfyEdORy92hbVhHw3iPLwVmAu8f7JtGjqT_rlYNH96mH9ONkclWOyvOhNHP6-ZlITMko6-rfY8gh8gRpinxuFHITyni8wY1UqtxqcDfruxaFYw0dwCJsu_P3qbQVk7rihI9ns6GHWA/w640-h360/Screenshot%20(4183).png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>big crater</div><div>https://t.me/donbassr/13637</div></div><div><br /></div><div>Petrovsky mine 29 - worse than 2014, according to locals </div><div>https://t.me/donbassr/13670</div><div><br /></div><div><b>28 February, Kirovsky</b></div><div><div>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6550</div><div>"Consequences of the shelling of the Kirovsky district of the city of Donetsk by the Armed Forces of Ukraine" Not placed.</div><div><br /></div></div></div><div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">1 March </span></b></div><div><b>3-1A) Skyline/Miners' Square</b></div><div><div>"The consequences of the shelling of Donetsk by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A local resident died at the address of Young Miners 43. At the address of Young Miners 45, a gas pipe caught fire. At Shakhtyorskaya Square 2, <b>two local residents were killed</b> and a car burned down." (<a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/4188">https://t.me/militarydonetsk/4188</a>)</div></div><div><br /></div><div>That's at least five civilian deaths so far, and probably several dozen seriously wounded, including with lost limbs. </div><div><br /></div><div>"Ukrainian punishers continue to fire at the Kyiv region from multiple launch rocket systems. Two people died in the area of Shakhtyorskaya [miners'] Square." Head of Donetsk Alexei Kulemzin said. "Request to residents to move away from the windows! If possible, move to the shelter. Be sure to keep documents and communications with you! Take care of yourself and be vigilant!" - Kulemzin turned to the Donetsk people.</div><div><a href="https://t.me/donbassr/13847">https://t.me/donbassr/13847</a></div><div>images:</div><div>https://dnr-sckk.ru/fotoreportazh-posledstviya-obstrela-voroshilovskogo-rajon-g-donecka/</div><div>https://t.me/militarydonetsk/4156</div><div>https://t.me/militarydonetsk/4157</div><div>https://t.me/militarydonetsk/4155</div><div>https://t.me/TK_Union/8418</div><div>https://t.me/chp_donetskv/12965</div><div>2 dead https://t.me/militarydonetsk/4167</div><div>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6570</div><div>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6575</div><div>Patrick Lancaster video report: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJKbLHLdGaA">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJKbLHLdGaA</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Location: 48.0383349,37.7799044 - mid-north Kyivsky district, at the "Skyline" tower that is quite familiar from almost any view of the Donetsk skyline. Its broad sides face basically north and south, and with the usual NW fire, I expected this was the northwest corner. But the plaza with domes is on the south side. The impact was near the SE corner of the south face.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixjdKFMBauDKxF9xXCpBibRvMGs-_YauFFuOXWL-qF5DQCuVI6wsrtkChYzQ9en7AwVwEDKT5CMxGcBXiwS37TSuzblWfTgX3JBIuSIvNU_XK1h8xgHT_XnnJonD9heMjfXCQl7wFapZqtMPAWeuhZJzlwnNRCjOOOBDsmiNM211DXJasskhoGqZ6jhA/s1433/Donetsk_3-1_A.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1433" data-original-width="1294" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixjdKFMBauDKxF9xXCpBibRvMGs-_YauFFuOXWL-qF5DQCuVI6wsrtkChYzQ9en7AwVwEDKT5CMxGcBXiwS37TSuzblWfTgX3JBIuSIvNU_XK1h8xgHT_XnnJonD9heMjfXCQl7wFapZqtMPAWeuhZJzlwnNRCjOOOBDsmiNM211DXJasskhoGqZ6jhA/w578-h640/Donetsk_3-1_A.png" width="578" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaTzROChVySsTGATekkmHTFE7FaOBjNCKnEfmVVm4Dd7xjvpTqK6LSkfDe9Gw3l2LwKr-7HW_8oxbG9uaxiHugJUmyix5Q6EdVy2mPjXOiQtO-jovmoWu7Jdi_0zHQn7kIsgmNkS69mlfhbCK3fdO6HYUehJ5ftePsnB9LBqS4S_OJJ686bT-9ogYPfg/s749/Screenshot%20(4108).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="749" data-original-width="439" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaTzROChVySsTGATekkmHTFE7FaOBjNCKnEfmVVm4Dd7xjvpTqK6LSkfDe9Gw3l2LwKr-7HW_8oxbG9uaxiHugJUmyix5Q6EdVy2mPjXOiQtO-jovmoWu7Jdi_0zHQn7kIsgmNkS69mlfhbCK3fdO6HYUehJ5ftePsnB9LBqS4S_OJJ686bT-9ogYPfg/w235-h400/Screenshot%20(4108).png" width="235" /></a></div><br />This close south of a very tall building = not from any northern angle, unless it was a steep-diving rocket or missile. And while that's unusual, the fragmentation pattern is pretty horizontal (so the impact was fairly vertical). The moderate slope of damage we do see points back to the left = from the west, maybe SW or NW if vertical enough. From SW might leave a band of marks that levels into an arc, which I don't see. Impact from the west is more consistent with the apparently straight band of marks all to the side. <b>West to WNW is the most likely basic origin of fire.</b> Just how far depends on the exact weapon and stuff I don't know. Maybe 15 km? Nevelske is on a good line that far out. They might have aimed for the building's west face and overshot a bit - or they might have aimed for city's name plate, as it were, at the mentioned Miners' Square, and aimed a bit wrong. </div><div><br /></div><div>https://t.me/dnronline/58932 "Video of the entire shelling of the Kyiv region and Shakhtyorskaya Square" from a distance shows at least 3 smoking shell impacts inside the city, none of them clearly at Skyline (visible in the right-hand distance, and with the impact on the opposite side). At least 18 blasts of comparable loudness are heard, possibly all landing inside the city. I think the view is from the northeast facing southwest, and the seen impacts are closer to the camera than Skyline, or north and east of it.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPifTve4fE1g09Qi7P9fCaIgkgJzXSDqsX7kbjmMKelUbbUjqsIHDhmdAyodYpfmGHi_gd_PwkI0w-5ldQ6nxDMa8Yb6lWKZMQ9xJfw4jAmfKAMQKj3z1-eInhU1X6O5GC5l5CgNsDw3QDNOZNOe9emteDYm1-ocGYTbBNmD78N0CZSaAtl0JE94y30g/s1744/Screenshot%20(4235).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="620" data-original-width="1744" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPifTve4fE1g09Qi7P9fCaIgkgJzXSDqsX7kbjmMKelUbbUjqsIHDhmdAyodYpfmGHi_gd_PwkI0w-5ldQ6nxDMa8Yb6lWKZMQ9xJfw4jAmfKAMQKj3z1-eInhU1X6O5GC5l5CgNsDw3QDNOZNOe9emteDYm1-ocGYTbBNmD78N0CZSaAtl0JE94y30g/w640-h228/Screenshot%20(4235).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><b>3-1B) Izyum</b></div><div>https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3496</div><div>VFU shells hit the Izyum store in the Petrovsky district. There are people injured. The information is being specified.</div><div>47.941387,37.6002215 north face damaged top to bottom, low detail view - direction unclear except probably from the <b>north + something.</b> Same face of the same place hit again in May: https://t.me/izvestia/89568 </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFajmDXwshoFN2dIKT-jrgqUSt-uQc9nvAuqH9JwJhoxQL5QSLx3GKp6g_8Ig_NuwDAs0VriUH6nIfqCKAt8prHClMsLQ4h1PnTeEbIGq8XfydWBXzAVBtt7-41ySDmH3onnzCokXM7qbgEDBKZStHJPlcmTpBVLjQOBUg-VKENqwlUpIWsvFP6Ai5ng/s968/Screenshot%20(4073).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="775" data-original-width="968" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFajmDXwshoFN2dIKT-jrgqUSt-uQc9nvAuqH9JwJhoxQL5QSLx3GKp6g_8Ig_NuwDAs0VriUH6nIfqCKAt8prHClMsLQ4h1PnTeEbIGq8XfydWBXzAVBtt7-41ySDmH3onnzCokXM7qbgEDBKZStHJPlcmTpBVLjQOBUg-VKENqwlUpIWsvFP6Ai5ng/w400-h320/Screenshot%20(4073).png" width="400" /></a></div></div><div><br /></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>1 March, Others</b></div><div>https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3490</div><div>"The consequences of the shelling of the Kuibyshev district of the city." Not placed.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>Now in March, shelling increases and so does documentation. But we have about enough for now, don't we? I'll start skipping most and just sharing a few I already looked at or could easily say something about.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">2 March </span></b></div><div><b>3-2A) School No. 71</b></div><div>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6609</div><div>The Armed Forces of Ukraine are aiming fire at civilian infrastructure facilities. Yesterday School No. 71 named after P.F. Batula city of Donetsk.</div><div>48.0289518,37.7176455 - GM street view matches ok, but it's not exactly clear where the impact(s) are, or what the damage is.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">3 March </span></b></div><div>https://t.me/militarydonetsk/4845</div><div>The consequences of the shelling of the Kyiv region, st. Deciduous 9</div><div>same, video https://t.me/militarydonetsk/4830</div></div><div>photos https://t.me/nm_dnr/6695</div><div>clearer video https://t.me/nm_dnr/6707</div><div>north edge of the city - 48.0379169,37.8051694 - alley runs north-south - view faces north, and affected homes seem to be on the right - reasonable match with 2011 street view - Seems like the shell impacted the big tree leaving it in pieces, blew out the fence, and marked surfaces all around - damage slopes up to the south - car, west-facing wall, brick entry structure, remaining west wall passed over, and a north-facing wall of the next home to the south was partly collapsed - so the shell came from <b>some combination of north and west.</b></div><div>pics f/c, maybe - it's a messy, unclear scene, hard to explain, and not my best case. We have more than enough here already, right?</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">4 March: Hospitals </span></b></div><div>https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/6423</div><div>https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/6428</div><div>https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/6486</div><div>Addresses: Shumana street, 16,18; - Yakovleva street, 8 - Instytutska 11 - Savrasova 83, Savrasova 3 (middle, at 47.9743277,37.7049775), Semashka 3a </div><div>"Consequences of the shelling of <b>a maternity hospital and a polyclinic </b>in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk" Not much visible damage on the buildings. <b>West or WSW origin</b> shown for a dirt crater at Semashka 3a (not verified).</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaOeyQ3nqYFvP30tJp_RXCFe_6CEPVaSq90cLtYB-siT-7KaEOuwiGnJ5S0sFh2eFV344aG-YAlVOTive3foL41BiL7zoORx-mcFmEfmbAggoXixRk3Syt81Rq0mfDh_F5cSMzHspXk4Fd685lZdFMtmy8EKdEfuBx74dEKjtD7nARbA7JHTfaLipKGg/s1262/Screenshot%20(4205).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="1262" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaOeyQ3nqYFvP30tJp_RXCFe_6CEPVaSq90cLtYB-siT-7KaEOuwiGnJ5S0sFh2eFV344aG-YAlVOTive3foL41BiL7zoORx-mcFmEfmbAggoXixRk3Syt81Rq0mfDh_F5cSMzHspXk4Fd685lZdFMtmy8EKdEfuBx74dEKjtD7nARbA7JHTfaLipKGg/w640-h402/Screenshot%20(4205).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">5 March</span></b></div><div><b>5A) school no. 116 </b></div><div><div>https://t.me/online_dnr_sckk/10211</div><div>17:20 - N.P. Novomikhailovka - Donetsk (settlement, mine "Trudovskoy"): 4 mines with a caliber of 120 mm were fired.</div><div><br /></div><div>https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/6530</div><div>According to updated information from the administration of the Petrovsky district, during repeated shelling from the VFU MOU "School No. 116 of Donetsk" on the street. Samarskaya, 1 - ceilings collapsed."</div><div>47.9472463,37.565835</div><div>"At the address Vyborgsky lane, 1, it was recorded damage to the low-pressure gas pipeline with subsequent burning." (just south of school's south corner)</div><div><br /></div><div>photos https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/6550 - https://t.me/militarydonetsk/5536</div></div><div><b>Same damage shown in January 2013, seemingly as new </b>- already read as from the <b>southwest</b> - see here: <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/01/donetsk-new-years-shelling.html">https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/01/donetsk-new-years-shelling.html</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPO30i3XopSMi_nFpY89yKXz3Ay5u0EwUfu1mO7eU7R9TYNUL29wMXJpXtcCoA9jihRT6EdWDddgmzz_3NiMo5D6fEWizW_9QjHcheWFqMwIECkqW8QO0iLW8iO78Ec5A4lskWWmA0eGfhYZ2Nl8qLNWTzrKb0qHvK3Fb2JC7n5SiOfadCUI6JbJMqWg/s802/photo_2023-01-26_04-16-38_crop.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="306" data-original-width="802" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPO30i3XopSMi_nFpY89yKXz3Ay5u0EwUfu1mO7eU7R9TYNUL29wMXJpXtcCoA9jihRT6EdWDddgmzz_3NiMo5D6fEWizW_9QjHcheWFqMwIECkqW8QO0iLW8iO78Ec5A4lskWWmA0eGfhYZ2Nl8qLNWTzrKb0qHvK3Fb2JC7n5SiOfadCUI6JbJMqWg/w640-h244/photo_2023-01-26_04-16-38_crop.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>To do later (not neccessarily by me): compare the damage seen on the different dates, sort out what happened when.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">6 March - Children's Hospital, Kindergarten</span></b></div><div><b><u><span style="font-size: large;">6A) Children's Hospital hit again</span></u></b></div><div>https://t.me/militarydonetsk/5817</div><div>As a result of another shelling, the city children's hospital in the Kievsky district of Donetsk at the address: 61 Kyiv Prospekt was damaged. The strength of the gap can be judged by the spread of pieces of earth and trees. Shells fell on the streets near the houses, as well as in the hospital building, but no one was hurt.</div></div></div><div>at 48.0549526,37.777608</div><div>Images show damage from least one impact on the front side, another on the back side, among damage to other buildings shown - front side = west-facing wall, impact from the left = north. Back side: soil spreads widest to the south and east = <b>from the northwest.</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5qhveSYKdevxoJS3CyQsFUIInRDKdL7hMdP8QuSipSLyKRZFy4wePGig1kTECTvt7WvtNfLYsh9uFI3Uw-Gl0pL1HnfV4M8JBxlMx0dCrF4LDnVylxGYrLLHwyPh4W72lzgvtWmzeASNc_RUxCfbLQUvBJ5H0pFqkQbcq7zd6GUeoGgv1Wk4CPZbg0Q/s1288/Screenshot%20(4030).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="930" data-original-width="1288" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5qhveSYKdevxoJS3CyQsFUIInRDKdL7hMdP8QuSipSLyKRZFy4wePGig1kTECTvt7WvtNfLYsh9uFI3Uw-Gl0pL1HnfV4M8JBxlMx0dCrF4LDnVylxGYrLLHwyPh4W72lzgvtWmzeASNc_RUxCfbLQUvBJ5H0pFqkQbcq7zd6GUeoGgv1Wk4CPZbg0Q/w640-h462/Screenshot%20(4030).png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh59sYgfmFjB2AAQAwjOmSOlWS1EL8V2E07d4dtHUyo7l9ioiN5NUbzpDmVNJ5QXrQficSeQuP9ZxHiDuS08OPHW1DISYJ8wx0SN2OTUQQ2zHp0-PWNNdIm7vISdU7PvrYjzBFNC1S8Zjd4yanq-RQxP2TeXlnO42-iQpzUAttMHUqG9scfcFVnUv9iAA/s624/photo_2023-01-27_05-21-47.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="406" data-original-width="624" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh59sYgfmFjB2AAQAwjOmSOlWS1EL8V2E07d4dtHUyo7l9ioiN5NUbzpDmVNJ5QXrQficSeQuP9ZxHiDuS08OPHW1DISYJ8wx0SN2OTUQQ2zHp0-PWNNdIm7vISdU7PvrYjzBFNC1S8Zjd4yanq-RQxP2TeXlnO42-iQpzUAttMHUqG9scfcFVnUv9iAA/w400-h260/photo_2023-01-27_05-21-47.jpg" width="400" /></a></div></div><div>If you've been reading or just following the images, the upper left view should look familiar. About the same was seen back on 25 February. Is it the same band extended across two of these 3-window sections? Comparing the two bands of damage, yes - the frag marks are still there from a week earlier, and only the impact behind is new. Photos do show another impact across the street from the hospital's north end (right), and another even closer to its south end (below), so at least 3 shells were sent, none of them directly damaging the hospital. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpD48ALbwRKXPisAormcsELGR21Hodwy_99Efx3nIiQos2QdFDk7NckMyr3KytrMdktEIHZCD9VnUfNRqjGnO0nJg_MdwwQziGqhP5XpoD7Lj3DGBpGFWk253B9jcz-Eha2suNICH6LqqbomKvUg5hxjc4PuVMHx5wFuI9Z_Gys9vi0e3EDwWcYf7eng/s624/photo_2023-01-28_19-46-13.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="411" data-original-width="624" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpD48ALbwRKXPisAormcsELGR21Hodwy_99Efx3nIiQos2QdFDk7NckMyr3KytrMdktEIHZCD9VnUfNRqjGnO0nJg_MdwwQziGqhP5XpoD7Lj3DGBpGFWk253B9jcz-Eha2suNICH6LqqbomKvUg5hxjc4PuVMHx5wFuI9Z_Gys9vi0e3EDwWcYf7eng/w400-h264/photo_2023-01-28_19-46-13.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b><span style="font-size: medium;">6B) Kindergarten no. 392</span></b></div><div>During the shelling from the side of punishers from the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as a result of a direct hit, a kindergarten in Donetsk was seriously damaged. 11, Aristova st.</div><div><a href="https://t.me/nm_dnr/6772">https://t.me/nm_dnr/6772</a></div></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjszN9LHb94-CnAp-OK9IfLtjwMsHjwqIf3L5IIoNuS23CpY76pUpWAJrvrnE4kWbPNdcBJJc171Knq04tnJVTtgAaJOsDGN4xFPxcktZ_Kjzko6Xd8C1o8KpV27h4EWFOTXCx-NI9PZhSuTRWT9uSX-aVdUcJV9an1kKUo_SzIGxzoY0hGxQt5ef9hvQ/s1165/photo_2023-01-24_08-23-24.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="773" data-original-width="1165" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjszN9LHb94-CnAp-OK9IfLtjwMsHjwqIf3L5IIoNuS23CpY76pUpWAJrvrnE4kWbPNdcBJJc171Knq04tnJVTtgAaJOsDGN4xFPxcktZ_Kjzko6Xd8C1o8KpV27h4EWFOTXCx-NI9PZhSuTRWT9uSX-aVdUcJV9an1kKUo_SzIGxzoY0hGxQt5ef9hvQ/w640-h424/photo_2023-01-24_08-23-24.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /></span></b></div><div></div><div><br /></div><div>Location: 48.0573667,37.7782765</div><div><br /></div><div>One impact is quite readable - close to parallel with this west-facing wall, so mostly from the north. The wall has some angle and the impact has to be somewhat into the wall (peak of damage arc is ahead, and it's left of that white bar in the corner). So it's a bit from the west too = <b>NNW.</b> The view above is probably the same impact, with massive damage to walls and debris spread to the south and east.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBK38XCmF-0b3tEKImLU5oy4TkYI1NO1fvmO9ZnxgLR9P6ZWfTrraPqzY1KAZrFfKwsSCGvUaey3W6mSemqf58u9ipAXKCVNlpVPAAHRpJc6VX2Ys1J1fakprfyr72O3TPl5_OKKN9y2EZQZue6EcEsAngDZYFqXgTMJClsomn73HSwBUbqNKIG72IAg/s1587/Screenshot%20(4188).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="699" data-original-width="1587" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBK38XCmF-0b3tEKImLU5oy4TkYI1NO1fvmO9ZnxgLR9P6ZWfTrraPqzY1KAZrFfKwsSCGvUaey3W6mSemqf58u9ipAXKCVNlpVPAAHRpJc6VX2Ys1J1fakprfyr72O3TPl5_OKKN9y2EZQZue6EcEsAngDZYFqXgTMJClsomn73HSwBUbqNKIG72IAg/w640-h282/Screenshot%20(4188).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>6 March other</b></div><div>http://t.me/online_dnr_sckk/10237</div><div>Shelling was recorded from the side of the VFU in the direction:</div><div>11:55 - N.P. Avdiivka - Donetsk (Kyiv district): 9 mines fired with a caliber of 120 mm.</div><div>https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/6559</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif_ek2weioHPaNu8yRPrGFaPZLkv6L8WAO2WRH7kWGiIwN7kpDVuVCfxTQDDDd_ax74qwG7RqsgEAUQQtSgOoURc1OpQtgMYtmS56g1lAX0Qah3qwgBvWbAp4Y73ExCwF_4zecM6C5lcQZJ3dbiVWxGWYJlC30D_lcmv2tnkYjTYEB8v1cSCbISbbxuQ/s509/Screenshot%20(4214).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="509" data-original-width="425" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif_ek2weioHPaNu8yRPrGFaPZLkv6L8WAO2WRH7kWGiIwN7kpDVuVCfxTQDDDd_ax74qwG7RqsgEAUQQtSgOoURc1OpQtgMYtmS56g1lAX0Qah3qwgBvWbAp4Y73ExCwF_4zecM6C5lcQZJ3dbiVWxGWYJlC30D_lcmv2tnkYjTYEB8v1cSCbISbbxuQ/s320/Screenshot%20(4214).png" width="267" /></a></div>Information was received from the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the DPR through the operational line about the shelling (http://t.me/online_dnr_sckk/10237) of the Kievsky district of Donetsk, as a result of which damage was recorded at the following addresses:</div><div><br /></div><div>- Kievskiy Ave., 36, (administration of the Kyiv region);</div><div>- st. Obnorsky, 3;</div><div>- on. Kyiv, 55b;</div><div>- st. Sobinova, 136, 138, 150;</div><div>- per. Muzykal'nyy, 4.</div><div>All starting just south of the oft-hit children's hospital and 63 Kyivsky, which were spared this day. </div><div>https://t.me/DNR_SCKK/6564 </div><div>The consequences of today's shelling of the Kyiv region</div></div><div>Good photos, but not the clearest - no analysis ventured.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">8 March </span></b></div><div><b>8A) 63 Kyivsky hit <u>a 3rd time</u> </b></div><div>https://t.me/nm_dnr/6822</div><div>Ukrainian militants continue shelling residential areas of the city of Donetsk. Punishers opened fire using 122-mm guns in the Kyiv region, firing 12 shells. As</div><div>Note 63 Kyivsky has been hit already on 24 Feb AND 6 March. The shown balcony damage dates from the first attack, way back 12 days ago. 3rd impact here in less than 2 weeks.</div><div><br /></div><div>video https://t.me/nm_dnr/6828</div><div>angled frag marks go best with a ground impact near the bottom, with a trajectory <b>partly from the north.</b> But the clearly new thing is the tree split in half when it obviously took a direct hit well above that. The split was turned to matchsticks, and the severed top was apparently pushed a bit, mainly to the east, before it landed - probably not quite as seen (I see the base sliding a lot as the top pivots left). That suggests some trajectory partly to the east (from the west) and <b>probably from northwest.</b> It's not clear if both the shells evidenced here came in the latest barrage. But is so, the best explanation is shells from the northwest at a steep enough angle to clear the relevant roof(s).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh2oWo1gWpY5o-OC2JrY8NGJtG5CqtF6FAo_x61ncW2-Mp3ccMSs8NkhAifhpI7SP2rNOhiRvA6ntxPj5O1eOldNU0XraIN-TEMZJdxcNoyuUZYQUNl5ZtjJZ5dj5N5-leCGPqsvqjFPmcUuKX8XlNs8lnSKBQ3KgIA7IPUfNqXGxOTI9idvKYF9t7BQ/s2134/Screenshot%20(4217).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="722" data-original-width="2134" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh2oWo1gWpY5o-OC2JrY8NGJtG5CqtF6FAo_x61ncW2-Mp3ccMSs8NkhAifhpI7SP2rNOhiRvA6ntxPj5O1eOldNU0XraIN-TEMZJdxcNoyuUZYQUNl5ZtjJZ5dj5N5-leCGPqsvqjFPmcUuKX8XlNs8lnSKBQ3KgIA7IPUfNqXGxOTI9idvKYF9t7BQ/w640-h216/Screenshot%20(4217).png" width="640" /></a></div><div>Cool: 24 Feb. photo, same spot, neither damage exists yet, a different tree damaged by an impact from the north or NW. (https://t.me/nm_dnr/6380) ...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJoZj2WUs8GECKme6KbgtAu-eVi_RfNiN4U0Noeby68YiIciN3S60SiH6QjAGLCGZHmrnvUhrEJJZ7XBuaIxolYD0sc21Hwlj2SsDh9rBolkW1W4rbTlW5bGM3JILPnREWwwBjM_DJwdFpOrOyiVR1IDAYKesmz6iU0fmxcFdJT0CZnkvzww66HKbZXg/s1280/photo_2023-01-29_01-00-54.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJoZj2WUs8GECKme6KbgtAu-eVi_RfNiN4U0Noeby68YiIciN3S60SiH6QjAGLCGZHmrnvUhrEJJZ7XBuaIxolYD0sc21Hwlj2SsDh9rBolkW1W4rbTlW5bGM3JILPnREWwwBjM_DJwdFpOrOyiVR1IDAYKesmz6iU0fmxcFdJT0CZnkvzww66HKbZXg/w400-h225/photo_2023-01-29_01-00-54.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">11 March</span> </b></div><div><b>11A) Petrovsky</b> </div><div>https://dnr-sckk.ru/fotoreportazh-posledstviya-obstrela-petrovskogo-rajona-donecka-11-03-22/</div><div><div>The task force of the DPR Representative Office in the JCCC, while fixing the consequences of shelling in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk, fell into the zone of shelling of residential areas from the VFU three times.</div><div><br /></div><div>Simultaneously with the observers, the ICRC carried out a humanitarian mission in this area within the framework of a previously agreed route.</div><div><br /></div><div>Within an hour, the enemy fired 15 shells with a caliber of 122 mm, 8 mines with a caliber of 120 mm and 29 grenades from an AGS at residential buildings in the villages of Mandrykino and the Trudovskaya mine.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>SW origin</b> shown (not verified) for impact at 71 Kobzarya Ave - 47.9192536,37.6815038 - furthest southern bit of the city, SW is all Ukrainian-held. </div><div><br /></div></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">12 March</span></b></div><p><b>12A, B) The Mosque and some homes</b></p><p><a href="https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3671">https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3671</a> </p><p>The AFU do not stop shelling Donetsk, as a result of which civilians continue to suffer, vital infrastructure is destroyed. Streets Signalnaya, Avtostradnaya, a broken mosque in the Kuibyshev district ... <b>Repeatedly restored residential buildings</b> again destroyed the shells of the Ukrainian punitive battalions.</p><p>12A) Mosque - Google Maps takes you right to it when you type mosque, Donetsk - like it's ht eonly one. <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/place/Akhat%CA%B9-Dzhami/@48.0533403,37.7174433,479m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x40e09b23106dcbcb:0x59f7c0e4feaf80db!8m2!3d48.0533272!4d37.7196311">Akhatʹ-Dzhami - Google Maps</a> - in the described area - northern edge of the city, in the Kuibyshevsky district. - 2 impacts - one damaged the main entrance, and this more distant one left a clear splash mark on the pavement - <b>NW or NNW origin</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeVw5gr9yzEyG_KqqbOLgOGiGs0dmjiSaAHOViFgGtEoewwW7mX3jxSxSOxwSQbun9vua7zvlL6KEtCFp2ECoW-PoeWRkIPiAqM2Fk0t3JnofBvd-HQTCTNB9j9FqcAs74Rx-pB0AmLkFIrmURkD9xxp2KGGXAuCRcEZFBS4sGT4NJL-Q8iTADmiFuFA/s1080/Screenshot%20(3900).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1080" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeVw5gr9yzEyG_KqqbOLgOGiGs0dmjiSaAHOViFgGtEoewwW7mX3jxSxSOxwSQbun9vua7zvlL6KEtCFp2ECoW-PoeWRkIPiAqM2Fk0t3JnofBvd-HQTCTNB9j9FqcAs74Rx-pB0AmLkFIrmURkD9xxp2KGGXAuCRcEZFBS4sGT4NJL-Q8iTADmiFuFA/w640-h494/Screenshot%20(3900).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>12B) homes on named street that pop up would be just northeast of the mosque (see right edge - Signalnya st. - addresses not given). A tall building is probably one of those just to the west and south of the mosque (off-frame above). By facade details, that's the north (NW)-facing side on the southernmost building in that cluster. The damage to me suggests the shell came in well from the right of straight in gives a different angle, from the southwest. Maybe it's somehow backwards of usual in this case, and we'd flip those angled lines to come in from the left, and get a NW or even NNW angle like at the mosque. That makes the most sense, but why do the marks angle up to the right?</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNynzkmpIVsAbvLYdEcgWZZxr7GpJVoHRIYEntoi93AttJeT_4MJMoQjDiUtB0veKVjmKPWhH8qFXP_GpGW5AA4KrhJ2MeSK_BG32jzlHwB6B9I-GfjzznN5OHcfVxk8L5CifPvb-m-ETQ0M3lalPojY9WwJb_rMCCC5y7TtWqcVFPSZVC_JwyhLy8aA/s642/3-12_B.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="642" data-original-width="589" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNynzkmpIVsAbvLYdEcgWZZxr7GpJVoHRIYEntoi93AttJeT_4MJMoQjDiUtB0veKVjmKPWhH8qFXP_GpGW5AA4KrhJ2MeSK_BG32jzlHwB6B9I-GfjzznN5OHcfVxk8L5CifPvb-m-ETQ0M3lalPojY9WwJb_rMCCC5y7TtWqcVFPSZVC_JwyhLy8aA/w367-h400/3-12_B.jpg" width="367" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>That's still just 5 fatalities in the city that I noted, but by March 12 there are surely some others I missed. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">14 March</span></b></p><p>This was called "Black Monday," with <b>23 civilians killed</b> in a single, unusual attack with a Tochka-U missile and cluster bomblets. My ballistic analysis can hardly help with such an attack, except in that also involves the missile being shot down, com-plicating the blame for what happened. I'll save that for another post.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">18 March </span></b></p><p>https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3816</p><p>A direct hit by a shell of Ukrainian punishers in a residential building on the street. Petrovsky, 111v.</p><p>According to updated information, <b>4 women born in 1960, 1972, 1974, 1997 died</b>.</p><p>see also: https://t.me/chp_donetskv/11645 - https://t.me/chp_donetskv/11632</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGXw5xCwH8aNYGEsxNgjat4prj_29q85D8L48Ke-M4JpST4WBnzi4Yks7vj7cMj0lHI2LR4uSZRIzmC8dl7i3gCApXSSqVW2R1Ggpv4cW9yhmdgWs5rye9MT6vY1oJnAhPX1KG3qT-T9Nos2QDQrs3cIoNbv3aEc00nNh-1pLymXoGkGClxt_rLPzRhg/s1280/Donetsk_3-18.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1280" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGXw5xCwH8aNYGEsxNgjat4prj_29q85D8L48Ke-M4JpST4WBnzi4Yks7vj7cMj0lHI2LR4uSZRIzmC8dl7i3gCApXSSqVW2R1Ggpv4cW9yhmdgWs5rye9MT6vY1oJnAhPX1KG3qT-T9Nos2QDQrs3cIoNbv3aEc00nNh-1pLymXoGkGClxt_rLPzRhg/w640-h480/Donetsk_3-18.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>in review</b> ...this first month or so of shelling in 2022 preceded the Russian invasion, with shells hitting homes and schools, injuring and starting to kill civilians, in a denied spate of provocations - by March 18, there were at least 32 civilian deaths in the city, and perhaps hundreds of injuries, in this first month of shelling. Ukraine's motive to do this could be questioned, and their doing so can be flatly denied even without that. But questions and denials fall flat in the face of the ballistic reality proving Ukraine's systematic war crimes.</div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-29569486279006274052023-02-27T05:33:00.010-08:002023-02-28T04:38:51.850-08:00Killing an Ambulance Crew: More Western-Backed Terrorism in Donetsk<p><b>February 27, 2023</b></p><p><b>(rough, incomplete)</b></p><p><b>edits 2/28</b></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1629570157822525444">What's the media hiding? on Twitter</a> is among the many passing around a shocking video filmed by someone's drone over Donetsk on February 23 ...and <a href="https://t.me/Elena_Evdokimova_Digest/3564">Elena Evdokimova on Telegram</a>: "Shameless criminals of the Ukrainian army have published a video of how they attacked an ambulance and employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in Donetsk. ... As a result of the shelling, <b>four ambulance workers were killed</b>, and ten rescuers received explosive injuries. [The attackers] didn't hit randomly; they carefully planned and targeted the innocent civilians of Donetsk and then shamelessly published videos." </p><p>The video comes with electronic music, saying "run" (in English) just before the blast starts an aggressive beat - it seems to be celebratory, like this shows bad guys being killed. But it's firefighters that run for cover, as 4 at the ambulance were killed. See below for questions about the source.</p><p> https://t.me/Elena_Evdokimova_Digest/3564</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZARAb_HGZHEzcKqeZ4gwtCTtQV-_BimwGpurNJB0tQK7rURwkYo2YAguAQLfzG1fvX99csHe3wCD5k6X4j7_lwCCOrdblzeG0tnyvvKQNf4xMfNuxO-uaukk80dk76qtnFvUJTKrGXtZEgbZTFSIbDQqH5EVg_3iXh9UHtRqT6SrKQRpWl9hdlPoHCA/s1267/Screenshot%20(4423).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="691" data-original-width="1267" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZARAb_HGZHEzcKqeZ4gwtCTtQV-_BimwGpurNJB0tQK7rURwkYo2YAguAQLfzG1fvX99csHe3wCD5k6X4j7_lwCCOrdblzeG0tnyvvKQNf4xMfNuxO-uaukk80dk76qtnFvUJTKrGXtZEgbZTFSIbDQqH5EVg_3iXh9UHtRqT6SrKQRpWl9hdlPoHCA/w640-h350/Screenshot%20(4423).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>https://twitter.com/Alisa_Vasilisa_/status/1628856015889235975</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpr9Dg_TipQJTtShORd9QUoFQgsbm3YqChLq5LLo9VK4rLngPZ5hhB4g0frrl_XJIRBo9lWWZSOZ-DtvrIBs8p49MEr28n0JAA7rXQbthuGdlSs4NqB8TL8BWy_sMxFh2y0yhgXletz1d-ue0ochFR5mgW2_DPvOAsVYRwgHmTZdBVRVnCc8uhTOm3YQ/s846/Fprb6ZvWYAUPaqv.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="846" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpr9Dg_TipQJTtShORd9QUoFQgsbm3YqChLq5LLo9VK4rLngPZ5hhB4g0frrl_XJIRBo9lWWZSOZ-DtvrIBs8p49MEr28n0JAA7rXQbthuGdlSs4NqB8TL8BWy_sMxFh2y0yhgXletz1d-ue0ochFR5mgW2_DPvOAsVYRwgHmTZdBVRVnCc8uhTOm3YQ/w400-h196/Fprb6ZvWYAUPaqv.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><p>Girls - ambulance workers who died today as a result of a terrorist shelling of the Petrovsky district of Donetsk.</p><p></p><p>One is 25 years old, the other is 29 years old... Live and live... And the world is silent!</p><p>Girls, our angels, the Kingdom of Heaven and eternal rest!</p><p><a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70340">https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70340</a></p><p>14.30 - Another clarification from local residents of the Petrovsky district: three ambulance workers were killed. 1 paramedic injured, in hospital. <b>The woman who died in the hospital was not an ambulance officer, but wounded from the scene of the attack, where the ambulance team arrived. She left four children ... </b></p><p>This clarification could itself be mistaken, but quite likely, all these other sources reflect this confusion.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtHePVhhCoMWsNYqEOkpkHzgajaOPt3-5xoZw5ESersd09f5m80Yg3z4ukDcGgjp2UOF7eQybqSymvNsuCZGICXLSLfZAb6OrenzU_r557H4wwKoZSIQ2FbP5juBcfxUfeHl_fZIK8a7q3CaiWx1Yhs08AkV28-KG5AHKyGGKkMJBYUqtBuZpgwMZA9A/s1105/photo_2023-02-26_23-35-28.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="703" data-original-width="1105" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtHePVhhCoMWsNYqEOkpkHzgajaOPt3-5xoZw5ESersd09f5m80Yg3z4ukDcGgjp2UOF7eQybqSymvNsuCZGICXLSLfZAb6OrenzU_r557H4wwKoZSIQ2FbP5juBcfxUfeHl_fZIK8a7q3CaiWx1Yhs08AkV28-KG5AHKyGGKkMJBYUqtBuZpgwMZA9A/w400-h255/photo_2023-02-26_23-35-28.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><a href="https://t.me/chp_donetskv/44567">https://t.me/chp_donetskv/44567</a><div>In Donetsk, ambulances were sent on their last journey, whose car was fired upon by neo-Nazis, and then footage of this monstrous attack was posted online<p></p><p>BSMP brigade p / s 5 ... Daria, Marina, Evgeny, Alexander</p><p><a href="https://t.me/donbassr/34861?single">https://t.me/donbassr/34861?single</a></p><p> (https://t.me/donbassr/34793) An orderly, a driver and two paramedics from this ambulance brigade were killed by a repeated strike by Ukrainian artillery in the Petrovsky district when they arrived to help the wounded</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWqeG4rCUIAMK-Ex7zY3dQwTqkdYzsTAYAHt1_aH6ht8nkWecwLqmv2ryg7y6lEn4ef08HzYAwK3JHIrpXsHVE0btxf-n-DwkixaBWBwM2c3SgEuhlk7A1DdyaZsAOrez2OnKXPtseCk57gTNP1hjiFxjzftm7w5AhQONSjb0QlAKoZXTUp8goDgEfXg/s710/photo_2023-02-26_23-54-58.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="443" data-original-width="710" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWqeG4rCUIAMK-Ex7zY3dQwTqkdYzsTAYAHt1_aH6ht8nkWecwLqmv2ryg7y6lEn4ef08HzYAwK3JHIrpXsHVE0btxf-n-DwkixaBWBwM2c3SgEuhlk7A1DdyaZsAOrez2OnKXPtseCk57gTNP1hjiFxjzftm7w5AhQONSjb0QlAKoZXTUp8goDgEfXg/w400-h250/photo_2023-02-26_23-54-58.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>photos: 2/23 11:53 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/14052<p></p><p>https://t.me/donbassr/34861</p><p>video:</p><p>https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70369</p><p>https://twitter.com/DailyWorld24/status/1628820268998180865</p><div>Shown: ambulance - nursery garden (kindergarten or day care) no. 107 in Budenovsky - possible loc <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/search/%D1%8F%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B8+%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%B4+%D0%BD%D0%BE.+107,+%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%BA+%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B8,+%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%BA+%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C,+%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B5/@47.9537134,37.8609727,480m/data=!3m1!1e3">ясли сад но. 107, донецк сити, донецк область, украине - Google Maps</a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQZ5-fNNPXw4x4ZXbKyWrPzh5qtr8PFyZbhpLWx-45L_JPJ09Xm3gjn4AWWVD1yqu9yb2FHtLVv5FwC_ibkWWqW57eTJqv6L1D1w4IHYNXKt3e5xgFavu1aptw2fJmSzvZ-f-OLWfcbbHoiSjBzJCxzLvoqG3RvEb9vdmwvJBGFRFVzoRdTRZgp5ozGQ/s1920/Screenshot%20(4431).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQZ5-fNNPXw4x4ZXbKyWrPzh5qtr8PFyZbhpLWx-45L_JPJ09Xm3gjn4AWWVD1yqu9yb2FHtLVv5FwC_ibkWWqW57eTJqv6L1D1w4IHYNXKt3e5xgFavu1aptw2fJmSzvZ-f-OLWfcbbHoiSjBzJCxzLvoqG3RvEb9vdmwvJBGFRFVzoRdTRZgp5ozGQ/w400-h225/Screenshot%20(4431).png" width="400" /></a></div>Terror in Donetsk continues ... The Proletarsky and Budenovsky districts were hit, houses and civilian infrastructure were damaged.</div><div><p></p><p>A serious tragedy unfolded as a result of the shelling of the Petrovsky district: the rescue services that arrived at the scene tried to provide assistance and evacuate the wounded, at that moment they were hit by a MLRS. 3 ambulance workers died on the spot, another died in the hospital, 10 employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations received injuries of varying severity. The number of civilian casualties is being specified.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2OsVqTJ_ZHU5ZYb5Q-T_uIihslPdxnLcTP7ww_SFDvZhXiIrHmR8PmjyIsmV5WODrydVERG7RZWdo9fs_iKze4MJ6O2wqxbsFUhHuzbt4XaLWMMeSe_B3_fpQ0h-pgfRntpGRWwkEYQZG4q5MHqvA-RTrlKQFALZTNYe15UuymspgEKLAmeVjLBgfDQ/s1920/Screenshot%20(4430).png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2OsVqTJ_ZHU5ZYb5Q-T_uIihslPdxnLcTP7ww_SFDvZhXiIrHmR8PmjyIsmV5WODrydVERG7RZWdo9fs_iKze4MJ6O2wqxbsFUhHuzbt4XaLWMMeSe_B3_fpQ0h-pgfRntpGRWwkEYQZG4q5MHqvA-RTrlKQFALZTNYe15UuymspgEKLAmeVjLBgfDQ/w640-h360/Screenshot%20(4430).png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Questions About Attack Video Origin </span></b></p><p>Who filmed this? The original channel is unclear. Is that a Ukrainian drone filming their own terrorism, or something the Russians documented? The on-screen labels seem to include some English, however, and some added labels from another source. Someone who knows more could say from this display whose drone this probably is. </p><p>I asked Elena: "If Ukraine filmed & posted it, would like to know where, and it's sick - they're bragging about it. Also makes sense Russia filmed it, as they watch for double-tap strikes. You'd just monitor the responses until you catch them in the act, then you might post it like this, like they're bragging, to heighten the sense of anger."</p><p>Reply: "Adam, first mentioning of that drone video on TG I found so far ( search in TG is not good ) on this pro-Russian channel: https://t.me/oplottv/44355 "ow I hate these creatures... I hate them! A video from an enemy UAV is circulating in dill publics - how they hit an ambulance in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk on February 23, 2023. The hit was not accidental! Creatures, fascists! No-on-view!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" </p><p>The Ukrainian video posted in this message, was published by a Ukrainian on TikTok, with music effects 😡 (there was no link provided, I found the video by the TikTok channel name) </p><p>https://www.tiktok.com/@ya_diman/video/7204198782337142022</p><p>With "original sound effects" </p><p>But its not the first time the same Ukrainian user published this video. He published it before, "but TikTok deleted it", as he explained it in the comments to another video:</p><p>https://www.tiktok.com/@ya_diman/video/7203811786707963141</p><p>Adding: Ya_Diman previously posted nonsense - scenes from video games, looks like. For this sudden bit of mysterious, relevant content, he cites a Telegram posting (not linked or specified) as his source. There is a watermark: Telegram channel Ху@вый Киев - I found no such channel. Elena looked ...https://t.me/ChatToElenaEvdokimovaDigest/2577 - also found nothing like that, but swapping e in for the @ yields Хуевый Киев - "fucking Kiev" - a few pro-Kiev channels have such a name, with the same video stamp coming up with this one: https://t.me/XYKYIV18. But there's no such video in their feed now. </p><p>Elena adds "A few hours after Ukrainians, as usual, accused Russian in shelling their own."</p><p><a href="https://t.me/supernova_plus/17865">https://t.me/supernova_plus/17865</a>: "Petrovsky district of Donetsk .. Ukraine ... cynical self-shelling from Belgorod ..."</p><p>Some NAFO-type accounts asked Why a Russian drone came by to film the crime just then, suggesting they were in on it. As I propose, maybe it was assessing the damage from the earlier strike, or maybe it's a thing they do to try and catch double-tap attacks in the act. And considering the source ambiguity, it might be Russian-filmed. But the most original sources seem to be pro-Kiev ones.</p><p>So people would then ask why would Ukraine film this and post it openly? That's something I can't give an exact answer for, but I can see them doing this to terrorize the people of Donetsk, signaling that they can do it with impunity and even boast about it. This makes more sense if they add some deniability, some source confusion, allowing people to conclude the Russians are again doing this to their own. And it seems that's what happened. So it seems more likely to me this is a cynical Ukrainian boast, but both options seem likely enough. I suppose a relevant question now would be: who it this Ya Diman person.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Analysis</span></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis-w0Qn6RCArWDjT00sOXXlL_t6qxtHpdeYr64zkMGZvnz_XQ3qQ3MaL5m61QMASK_K9U8dDTa9GCkn8P1BtGYRfGGGLxZHTJFAOG-091Wg3eHDj4RYoC8HAto81M-l3RdjV9xeWoXAXNgEDCg_adTwacWWZrjia9iZKyPSXdaV06hmHBo8FclNFvjtA/s907/photo_2023-02-27_05-04-13.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="843" data-original-width="907" height="371" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis-w0Qn6RCArWDjT00sOXXlL_t6qxtHpdeYr64zkMGZvnz_XQ3qQ3MaL5m61QMASK_K9U8dDTa9GCkn8P1BtGYRfGGGLxZHTJFAOG-091Wg3eHDj4RYoC8HAto81M-l3RdjV9xeWoXAXNgEDCg_adTwacWWZrjia9iZKyPSXdaV06hmHBo8FclNFvjtA/w400-h371/photo_2023-02-27_05-04-13.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>Elena Evdokimova had the location - coordinates 47.9379677,37.6367722 - just off Magdeburg street, inner Petrosky district, as reported. I did spend 10 minutes looking, but never found it myself. The video is from east of the site, facing west.<p></p><p>Elena adds: "The buildings belong to a transport company Spetstrans , for Ukrainians it were the 'legitimate', from their point of view, target." <a href="https://yandex.ru/maps/org/ooo_fk_spetstrans/8773185089/?ll=37.638476%2C47.937302&z=16">https://yandex.ru/maps/org/ooo_fk_spetstrans/8773185089/?ll=37.638476%2C47.937302&z=16</a> - it seems to be a Russian-based waste management and recycling company. </p><p>Solar azimuth - almost parallel with the damaged building, or just past 165 degrees, up to maybe 170 = after 10:55 am to maybe 11:15 am <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/grad/solcalc/">(noaa.gov)</a>, or about 11 AM, Unless that's an hour off (what's DPR policy on DST?). That should be the 3 rocket second attack reported by the JCCC at 12:00 local time: </p><div><a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70335">11:20</a> - n.p. Maksimilyanovka - Donetsk (Petrovsky district): 20 rockets were fired from the MLRS.</div><div>+ <a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70305">12:00</a> - n.p. Kurakhovo - Donetsk (Petrovsky district): 3 rockets were fired from the MLRS</div><div>+ <a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70367">8 artillery shells</a> 155mm were fired from Dal'neye in the late afternoon. </div><div>= 31 shells total</div><div><a href="https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70512">A later report</a> would say "35 shells were fired [by] the Armed Forces of Ukraine (https://t.me/readovkanews/53380) in the Petrovsky district </div><p>Ukraine-supporter Serg Dash on Twitter also had the location and some doubts. <a href="https://twitter.com/rodomir7771/status/1629781621602672647">https://twitter.com/rodomir7771/status/1629781621602672647</a></p><p>"2.I don't see an ambulance on the video"</p><p>He takes the obvious candidate for an ambulance-like van, due to missing or invisible details. I see the lights. The red stripe on the other side is less clear, perhaps missing, and other details may just be washed out in the glare, but this is probably it. <a href="https://twitter.com/Cicke69/status/1629940994861944834">Clicke69</a> adds the skylight match.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNZDWtldgUnAcgPv3-RVMDvIt4vZ-unNY2VA-EHi_pDprKflyVN6HN3P46DWGXesKkfquXGmu5e6ibnoKLX53RLzzD25oNPPkwDKiNzaWYwkoNW5jdi9z4_rzLHvd5RpsdTQCWg4pEsHpXpV2MW6mn4V8Ya0NL6tVabHTxxLzqyjN3iPXOJtLZMU7-hg/s1358/Screenshot%20(4417).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1078" data-original-width="1358" height="508" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNZDWtldgUnAcgPv3-RVMDvIt4vZ-unNY2VA-EHi_pDprKflyVN6HN3P46DWGXesKkfquXGmu5e6ibnoKLX53RLzzD25oNPPkwDKiNzaWYwkoNW5jdi9z4_rzLHvd5RpsdTQCWg4pEsHpXpV2MW6mn4V8Ya0NL6tVabHTxxLzqyjN3iPXOJtLZMU7-hg/w640-h508/Screenshot%20(4417).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>The location matches: damaged ambulance at a corner much like the one that van was hit at. This is almost surely the same vehicle. Note also the frag marks angling up the side of the ambulance, higher yet on the wall ahead, or to the southeast. Back doors damaged when closed, as the video has them, hit from inside by frags that punched through. Anyone inside would be almost certain to suffer massive and likely fatal injuries.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicFgRIoGeJyuVXdkWgx3BP_H6-W4VX5_gMS85frThEAycF4wQG3uSkVtouvDLdYyjt-5Bj2uX-cMevofmT1PLmkzicSd24Tp1nz8VvhSl8q4AF5EfXI0YTEvZmFCoN9eVV0zCvFXEOJdT5W-6kWXzGsHglxp8dtP95keybrhvyzB78RFOpxf2lHLKVbg/s1922/Screenshot%20(4438).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="766" data-original-width="1922" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicFgRIoGeJyuVXdkWgx3BP_H6-W4VX5_gMS85frThEAycF4wQG3uSkVtouvDLdYyjt-5Bj2uX-cMevofmT1PLmkzicSd24Tp1nz8VvhSl8q4AF5EfXI0YTEvZmFCoN9eVV0zCvFXEOJdT5W-6kWXzGsHglxp8dtP95keybrhvyzB78RFOpxf2lHLKVbg/w640-h256/Screenshot%20(4438).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>"3.Judging by the map of hostilities, to the territory of which the 🇺🇦 Army is controlled, there are 11-12 km. Any cannon artillery shoots at 20-40 km."</p><p>I asked why that far and not further? No answer.</p><p>Angle of fire - there's a direction the fireball rolls before the wind fully takes over - basically right-to-left - includes some wind, which angles up and to the left (in view = to the south on the map) - original direction a bit DOWN and to the left, about 45 degrees across the building at right = from the northwest, like usual. Higher frag marks to the southeast indicates the same. Distance to launcher is totally unclear to me - maybe a relatively short range, from the limited fireball roll. But "relative" varies greatly from one weapon to the next.. <a href="https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1629947523510210560">Adam Larson on Twitter</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIxNx0ocFbKP4w8cyya6X_ZbAiw0RU3PxnL_Ah4DmogZnZyrMCEvjdjEl_JqTsYz4gK6Ma2G4FijMpA2AfPo3T8p1_4BgcKAtdG_b1dD53feTosTI0kvJg1F083wFf1tq1kCPb1P5K9YxHOztwshi6Qx6Vfz_RdSG3KuUeCsb4FD2k366PxdQm3YsyTA/s1168/Screenshot%20(4427).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="454" data-original-width="1168" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIxNx0ocFbKP4w8cyya6X_ZbAiw0RU3PxnL_Ah4DmogZnZyrMCEvjdjEl_JqTsYz4gK6Ma2G4FijMpA2AfPo3T8p1_4BgcKAtdG_b1dD53feTosTI0kvJg1F083wFf1tq1kCPb1P5K9YxHOztwshi6Qx6Vfz_RdSG3KuUeCsb4FD2k366PxdQm3YsyTA/w640-h249/Screenshot%20(4427).png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The place was geolocated and he had 2 starting questions., but my points raised a few more questions from Serg. </p><p>https://twitter.com/rodomir7771/status/1629947076011343873</p><p>The cost of one shot from [HIMARS] (simple misle up to 70 km) - $150,000. They`re used to destroy large accumulations of military equipment, ammunition or fuel depots, bridges, etc. which`re at a distance inaccessible to cannon artillery.</p><p>https://twitter.com/rodomir7771/status/1629948391009538048</p><p>It is simply pointless to use such a missile to strike a yard with a van, located 10-15 km from the front line, where simple cannon artillery reaches. Well, except that Putin himself would have been sitting in the van.</p><p>https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1629950059625480192</p><p>Could be the HIMARS claim was incorrect & tacked on, but whatever it was came from the northwest, range unclear to me, & it sowed some terror. Intended use and cost don't necessarily matter for Kyiv's unaccountable extremist units, so maybe it was HIMARS.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Reports</span></b></p><p>all times as shown here - add 10 or 11 hours for local time</p><p>2/23 1:59 am https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70305</p><p>JCCC: 12:00 - n.p. Kurakhovo - Donetsk (Petrovsky district): 3 rockets were fired from the MLRS.</p><div><p>A later report would say https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70512 "35 shells were fired [by] the Armed Forces of Ukraine (https://t.me/readovkanews/53380) in the Petrovsky district - the ambulance officers who were going to help the injured civilians were killed, and 10 rescuers were injured, (https://t.me/ readovkanews/53400) who also went to the challenges."</p></div><p>2:40 am https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70325 </p><p>Donetsk (Petrovsky district): - on the street. Petrovsky, 198/2, a man born in 1957 suffered.</p><p>Damaged, Petrovsky district: st. Bagritskogo, 2, 4, 6, 8 - private residential buildings.</p><p><a href="https://www.google.com/maps/search/%D1%8F%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B8+%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%B4+%D0%BD%D0%BE.+107,+%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%BA+%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B8,+%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%BA+%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C,+%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B5/@47.943484,37.6386712,480m/data=!3m1!1e3">ясли сад но. 107, донецк сити, донецк область, украине - Google Maps</a></p><p>2/23 2:45 2:45 https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70326</p><p>As a result of the shelling of the Petrovsky district this afternoon, a man born in 1957 was injured. The victim was hospitalized in city hospital No. 14.</p><p>2:45 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/14010</p><p>As a result of enemy shelling of the Petrovsky district, 4 houses of the private sector were damaged. In houses, roofs and walls were cut with shrapnel, glazing of windows was broken.</p><p>possibly that scene, with a big crater just west of these homes: https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70337</p><p>Note Yandex map labels (used here) differ from those on Google Maps</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgImzVne1J-lnDC7c9hpfvF9X3KNL-2JqvLF7RTfQBaqhNVaZDT7qdcz0f78pvjobUx_EQpyRsu5ORSCCOT_rv6j5GWljbO_PqrO_jkUjxq10D9nqq-GSqk5DzyL80M4azOZkEQyp_T_bI8cTKrOI7yLPmteR0TtQsaTxPRXuJFNDpsfP3QSjBZRfLCzw/s1321/Screenshot%20(4432).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1081" data-original-width="1321" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgImzVne1J-lnDC7c9hpfvF9X3KNL-2JqvLF7RTfQBaqhNVaZDT7qdcz0f78pvjobUx_EQpyRsu5ORSCCOT_rv6j5GWljbO_PqrO_jkUjxq10D9nqq-GSqk5DzyL80M4azOZkEQyp_T_bI8cTKrOI7yLPmteR0TtQsaTxPRXuJFNDpsfP3QSjBZRfLCzw/w640-h524/Screenshot%20(4432).png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>2:49 am https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70328</p><p>13:48 - Petrovsky district - it is also reported that there were dead among the ambulance brigade</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjldwcCGEZ-3LYvq34YlL2ARpQcQrN7SdChLECkP1Twb-KvcQIn6XKgV_mBoHSSsLm9kNjCQM3BrJFJBOGYgdLDnokE9QhcJLHuLEWxajwJ7DCg5OP8C5hUcvWGTucMtwrRYxmWcaRbMVHwKI0oFtbEmMBFqtp6Z-d2QLRRdIUZfou3UrFZmJrx-g7bhg/s1280/photo_2023-02-27_00-45-20.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1280" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjldwcCGEZ-3LYvq34YlL2ARpQcQrN7SdChLECkP1Twb-KvcQIn6XKgV_mBoHSSsLm9kNjCQM3BrJFJBOGYgdLDnokE9QhcJLHuLEWxajwJ7DCg5OP8C5hUcvWGTucMtwrRYxmWcaRbMVHwKI0oFtbEmMBFqtp6Z-d2QLRRdIUZfou3UrFZmJrx-g7bhg/s320/photo_2023-02-27_00-45-20.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>2/23 2:53 - video https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70329</div><div>Today, February 23, the Ukrainian Armed Forces simultaneously struck from the "HIMARS" MLRS in the Voroshilovsky district of Donetsk and from the "Uragan" MLRS in Petrovsky.<br /><p></p><p>2:54 - photos: https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70330</p><p>Consequences of shelling of Petrovsky district of Donetsk by Ukrainian militants. Includes photo at right. Paveway IV says this is "220mm 9M27K cargo rocket configured to dispense 30 × 9N210 submunitions. These are fired from a BM-27 Uragan." https://twitter.com/PavewayIV/status/1630418737105960960</p><p>3:06 am https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70334</p><p>On Defender of the Fatherland Day, Ukrainian nationalists shelled the center of Donetsk</p><p>The militants of the VFU continue to terrorize the civilian population of the republic. As a result of shelling with the use of NATO-style MLRS, the glazing of the Donetsk College of Music, as well as nearby residential buildings and shops, was damaged. Also, one of the shells damaged the heating system. Luckily, there were no casualties.</p><p>3:13 am https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70335</p><p><b>11:20 - n.p. Maksimilyanovka - Donetsk (Petrovsky district): 20 rockets were fired from the MLRS.</b></p><p>3:21 https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70338</p><p>14.18 — It is reported that in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk, an ambulance brigade was called to the scene of shelling and came under new shelling. According to preliminary information, not the entire team died - the paramedic was taken to a medical institution in the city. But she died from her injuries. Also, according to unconfirmed reports, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, who were at the site of the shelling, also suffered. The information is being specified.</p><p>3:33 https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70340</p><p>14.30 - Another clarification from local residents of the Petrovsky district: three ambulance workers were killed. 1 paramedic injured, in hospital. The woman who died in the hospital was not an ambulance officer, but wounded from the scene of the attack, where the ambulance team arrived. She left four children ... ((</p><p>4:18 am https://t.me/militarydonetsk/70342</p><p></p><p>As a result of the shelling of the Petrovsky district on the street. Magdeburg woman died. Her personal details are being established.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAtX-fD_y1TV9NUoCj5Mdh-Qd6b4BeFFr-ZRjNmqB8h4Zs21RVyRDxzAYOGwmNGY3wqhY1UJ66v4qia-Tvb62hbDh5_1uoKEOro9VzWYOqnxSXAjP2hora74eJU5YYjBa5t8Ojjep7Dcutpr8JZbDibnxfmZUl6mbdVSG8XB4Pa2AQgrV_OjEOZHfgQw/s793/Screenshot%20(4439).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="609" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAtX-fD_y1TV9NUoCj5Mdh-Qd6b4BeFFr-ZRjNmqB8h4Zs21RVyRDxzAYOGwmNGY3wqhY1UJ66v4qia-Tvb62hbDh5_1uoKEOro9VzWYOqnxSXAjP2hora74eJU5YYjBa5t8Ojjep7Dcutpr8JZbDibnxfmZUl6mbdVSG8XB4Pa2AQgrV_OjEOZHfgQw/w308-h400/Screenshot%20(4439).png" width="308" /></a></div>Magdeburg street (red) also runs N-S just south of the damaged homes on Bagritskogo st. (yellow) and Petrovskogo st. (198 in orange), and it's where the ambulance strike happened (star), as they were at building on Magdeburg damaged in an earlier strike (red rectangle).<p></p><p>2/23 4:25 am https://t.me/readovkanews/53380</p><p>In the Petrovsky district of Donetsk, civilians and doctors were killed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine - 35 shells were released around the city</p><p>In the Petrovsky district of Mirny Donetsk, which in the morning the Ukrainian militants fired at, ambulances were killed, who were traveling to help the affected civilians. In addition, 10 rescuers were injured, who also went to calls to the local population.</p><p>It is reported that one of the dead doctors had four children. Some residential buildings also received (https://t.me/readovkanews/53375) damage. In total, 35 shells were released around the city, some of which managed to knock down. Now at the place of arrivals you can see huge funnels, some of which reach five meters in diameter.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9GA-uNZR_A1UojyeY9Qq2ew0VxKMQHENYWjyPh0DgnO0nWOI1TMGBDp9Qoz0VXJrV6Kx1kM3PZhWD6Xjnkkr6zJ9Qb-psHR3ChMVqZtURw389tkTucamWN99JH_l7WZJ8gYMpuVC65fA6krKE6rr_pYYZ4sV4YedUhlqmTTB1WXKCs8O9gSyN4dHpyA/s1275/Screenshot%20(4428).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="731" data-original-width="1275" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9GA-uNZR_A1UojyeY9Qq2ew0VxKMQHENYWjyPh0DgnO0nWOI1TMGBDp9Qoz0VXJrV6Kx1kM3PZhWD6Xjnkkr6zJ9Qb-psHR3ChMVqZtURw389tkTucamWN99JH_l7WZJ8gYMpuVC65fA6krKE6rr_pYYZ4sV4YedUhlqmTTB1WXKCs8O9gSyN4dHpyA/w640-h366/Screenshot%20(4428).png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>2/23 4:29 am https://t.me/chp_donetskv/44386</p><p>Today, as a result of the shelling of the Petrovsky district of Donetsk, 3 members of the ambulance brigade involved in the evacuation of the wounded were killed: a paramedic, an orderly and a driver.</p><p>I express my condolences to the families and friends of the victims.</p><p>Also, in the performance of her duties, the paramedic of the brigade suffered, for whose life the doctors of the Republican Traumatological Center are fighting.</p><p>4:37 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/14014 Photo: Funnel in the microdistrict Petrovsky Machine-Building Plant.</p><div><div>6:03 am https://t.me/donbassr/34793 </div><div>Paramedic who was wounded in Petrovsky district of Donetsk dies</div><div><br /></div><div>An orderly, a driver and another paramedic from this ambulance team died (https://t.me/donbassr/34788) on the spot.</div><div><br /></div><div>The doctors could not save the life of the mother of four children, to whom the doctors came to call.</div></div></div><div><br /></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-69391623463525924802023-02-22T08:36:00.007-08:002023-02-26T08:16:24.998-08:00How the Bomb was Assembled and Quietly Weakened<p><b>Beirut Port Bomb Plot? part 1</b></p><div><b>February 22, 2023</b></div><div><b>(rough, incomplete) </b></div><div><b>last edits 2/26</b></div><div><p>The August 4, 2020 Beirut Port explosion is said to be one the 6th biggest non-nuclear blasts in human history. For anyone who needs a reminder, it looked like this:</p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SkIYjNGiaoA" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>It fairly wrecked Beirut, killing 218 people and wounding some 7,000. It left 300,000 homeless, and destroyed enormous grain reserves, amid a financial crisis and peak COVID-19 infections, leading to fresh street protests and the sitting government's resignation. The explosion is generally blamed on Lebanese government incompetence, and used as a basis for further sanctions by parties inside and especially outside of Lebanon. Coercive efforts at "accountability" and "reform" increasingly exacerbate the financial crisis that's punishing everyone. </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJJifeUIYwAUQ0T-kwWgg4Yl5MdsVzoGAAaQ9kI0dWfrQIjRwwKEkxAL5Qcldj5q7xwxmFvh8WL0QYWMmBTNmTyTrlQoty-SCoRBGmf1h7aV1UVZSmd_lGtAgfK9gxqOr_dqIrbkGYq6xAByMiRiJeWL7XhIXXJDq5Ua_dXzPZUo--y-MfAzq8cTzlow/s1024/Beirut_Port_Aerial_small.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="682" data-original-width="1024" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJJifeUIYwAUQ0T-kwWgg4Yl5MdsVzoGAAaQ9kI0dWfrQIjRwwKEkxAL5Qcldj5q7xwxmFvh8WL0QYWMmBTNmTyTrlQoty-SCoRBGmf1h7aV1UVZSmd_lGtAgfK9gxqOr_dqIrbkGYq6xAByMiRiJeWL7XhIXXJDq5Ua_dXzPZUo--y-MfAzq8cTzlow/w400-h266/Beirut_Port_Aerial_small.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>The explosion occurred in Warehouse 12 at the port of Beirut where, as we hear, some 2,750 tons of Ammonium Nitrate (AN) - a potentially explosive material - was stored in disastrous conditions. We're told corrupt Hezbollah allies ran the port, or something like that. They may have wanted this all there for terrorism in other places, but the main issue is how they left it for nearly 7 years, until a welder's spark - or another, unexplained coincidence - set it all off. </div><div><br /></div><div>It's a huge story, and one people don't understand as well as they think. Most readings assume this was accidental, but considering the outcome and its usefulness to some political agendas, and considering the details considered below and in part 2,<b> this could have been a deliberate act of terrorism that's gone not just unpunished but rewarded. </b>I'm not entirely certain that's the case, but at the very least, it merits better consideration than it's received.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>Widely cited starting points for my visual-based review: 2 videos produced by Forensic Architecture:</div><div><br /></div><div><b>"FAV1" Nov. 17, 2020</b> FA with Mada Masr - <a href="https://forensic-architecture.org/investigation/beirut-port-explosion">The Beirut Port Explosion ← Forensic Architecture (forensic-architecture.org)</a> MediaPart video: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mQ60wNgKrQ">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mQ60wNgKrQ</a> - <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3s54_MF2XPk">Explosion de Beyrouth : le désastre reconstitué - YouTube</a> </div><div><br /></div><div><b>"FAV2" Feb. 13, 2023</b></div><div><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7dy8n0e0ZY">The Beirut Port Explosion: The Welders (English) - YouTube</a></div><div><div> "Our new study of the #BeirutPortExplosion conducted with @FebrayerNetwork uses leaked documents, OSI and fire dynamics simulations to cast doubt on the widespread claims that shoddy work by Syrian welders caused the fire which triggered the deadly blast.</div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/ForensicArchi/status/1625114680111861762">https://twitter.com/ForensicArchi/status/1625114680111861762</a></div><div>Mada Masr again partners. <a href="https://twitter.com/MadaMasr/status/1625044277762957312">https://twitter.com/MadaMasr/status/1625044277762957312</a></div></div><div><br /></div><div>You'll follow my analysis better after watching their visualization in FAV1.The visual work in both seems sound, is quite detailed, and beautifully rendered. As I've seen before, it's where inference, imagination, and political bias might enter the equation that Eyal Weizman's Forensic Architecture can behave like Bellingcat - bolstering the official narrative they're somehow beholden to, with selective use of inherently valid methods, and just ignoring any evidence that doesn't fit. Sometimes they just use nonsense, beautifully illustrated; the Douma gas cylinder <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-illogical-douma-airdrop-clue-that.html">"grid pattern" that proves airdrop</a> is a prime example. It's just sad how few people - I guess including FA themselves - fail to grasp the idiocy of this celebrated brainfart. Am I just incapable of explaining it right? </div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">How the Bomb was Assembled </span></b></p><div>I'll be brief with the complex and murky story about how 2,750 tons of Ammonium Nitrate (AN) got there. It arrived at the port in 2013 on a poorly managed ship - the MV Rhosus - with contested owners, carrying Georgian-produced AN bought for mining in Mozambique . The ship was damaged, then abandoned with its cargo and crew, who had to live on the ship for about a year, as the cargo was placed in Warehouse 12 in 2014. It's a strange story.</div><div><br /></div><div>It was headache Lebanon's port had to deal with, and it apparently didn't do so well. There's a record of inept management following that, as revealed in leaked reports and told widely in the media. These stories are relevant and worth reviewing, but are not necessarily trustworthy or the complete story. And we can skip the details here to focus on what might be new to a lot of people.</div><div><br /></div><div><div>The AN came in giant one-ton sacks hoisted by cranes, labeled "Nitroprill HD," manufactured in Georgia (former SSR). This seems to mimic "Nitropril", made in Australia and designed for explosive uses, especially in mining. (<a href="https://twitter.com/BrunoTertrais/status/1291298375984349187">Bruno Tetrais on Twitter</a>) The shipment had been ordered for a mining operation in Mozambique. (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Beirut_explosion">Wikipedia</a>). So it was not the more common, lower purity kind used as fertilizer - it was designed to explode, under controlled conditions. And there was 2,750 tons of it to start. The Lebanese Army should have had to sign off on its entry, although reports suggest they never did so, and even refused later requests to help relocate the stuff. </div></div><div><br /></div><div>This massive cargo would only become truly explosive under certain conditions combining: extreme heat - excess humidity - the presence of combustible fuels or explosive - open flame. It's not usually so hard to keep these things apart. But the AN was reportedly stored in warehouse 12 alongside other seized or abandoned materials, including: </div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>23 tons of fireworks</li><li>5 rolls of slow-burning detonation cord (rep. one mile of fuse each)</li><li>1,000 car tyres </li><li>50 tons of Ammonium Phosphate (not a fire or reactivity hazard in itself)</li><li>5 tons tea and coffee (all per FAV1, and again via "reports")</li><li>Also <b>kerosene</b> and hydrochloric acid are reported, in unspecified amounts (NYT via <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/08/03/they-killed-us-inside/investigation-august-4-beirut-blast">HRW report</a>)</li></ul></div><div><div><div>As I gather, a simple spark landing on the heavy sack could hardly trigger an explosion. It would take the kind of massive fire that somehow occurred just then, and/or other modifications, like flammable fuel poured into the AN. Ammonium Nitrate is made and shipped all over the world in huge amounts, and frequently stored in bulk. It's surely not done to standards in every other case, yet a blast like this is reasonably rare. It takes a special confluence of circumstances. </div><div><br /></div><div>Warehouse 12 at the port of Beirut had all the ingredients for that. Arranged the wrong way, they would constitute a bomb of massive power, so that a small fire of innocent origin could set it all off. </div></div><div><br /></div><div>Syrian refugee and welder Raed al-Ahmad, one of those long-suspected of accidentally starting the fire: "If someone had said anything to me about explosives, I wouldn't even stand there. It is a death sentence." <a href="https://twitter.com/ForensicArchi/status/1625114698688389121">https://twitter.com/ForensicArchi/status/1625114698688389121</a> The AN bag labels are all in English, with no Arabic. But even most Syrians can make out some English, and universal signs appear - keep dry, something about fire (fire sensitive?), something fire-like (I can read oxidant). The layman might have guessed the danger, but it's also quite plausible he would not. </div><div><br /></div><div>Obviously, you shouldn't leave it to some welder - or thief, or vandal - whether or not a warehouse bomb is accidentally or intentionally set off. Security, oversight, and then internal safety features - like some freakin' sprinklers - and fire response as needed, should be able to keep any random fire from doing that. So clearly, some things went wrong at Warehouse 12.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">Maximum Packing of AN?</span></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>Forensic Architecture's 2020 video (FAV1) sought to describe "a makeshift bomb, on the scale of a warehouse, awaiting detonation." The video starts with an impressive modeling and correlation of AN sacks photographed in Dec. 2019 and Feb. 2020. From there, they assume all 2,750 tons unloaded remained to the end. 243 bags were modeled, and "the remaining 2,507" were plotted in between, shown packed as tight as possible, with no gaps. I estimate somewhat over 1,200 dots in their mapping (as shown below - note each filled bay has 8 rows of 34). That's about half the total, so it's mainly plotted 2 bags high, as in photos. </div><div><div><br /></div><div>The video cites widespread international safety standards mandating blocks of 300-500 tons or less, separated by spaces, arguing that this was ignored at Warehouse 12. But the photos used don't clearly support this. </div><div><br /></div><div>One view from December suggests spaces that are not fully visible, but where no 2-high sacks appear. When the sacks are modeled, these come out as suggested alleys between blocks (see below - red boxes), with one block seen fully. It would be about 4 or probably 5 sacks wide. Assuming it's square and 2 bags deep = 32 or maybe 50 tons per block, but with narrow spaces between. That could be illusion, but conversely, the other photos from February might also show a similar spacing, and the foreshortened view just makes it unclear.</div><div> </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8Z3y1LPPEhXBYaMlT8wLAFbRo_BRIBgFHVjkpTd5HbZipQgEGFLBdy503T800c_mm7fo9dfmWkoSLkHekP_wyGqsM2dA-R7xqkLjUG0wdqRAliRQgsfmluvpCGugkyj2XlJIpANJgVqEWE1rDBq-SYLSCFe27ptFnx__iPXkKXjQc4vD2iurVEL2ZEg/s972/Screenshot%20(4306).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="947" data-original-width="972" height="624" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8Z3y1LPPEhXBYaMlT8wLAFbRo_BRIBgFHVjkpTd5HbZipQgEGFLBdy503T800c_mm7fo9dfmWkoSLkHekP_wyGqsM2dA-R7xqkLjUG0wdqRAliRQgsfmluvpCGugkyj2XlJIpANJgVqEWE1rDBq-SYLSCFe27ptFnx__iPXkKXjQc4vD2iurVEL2ZEg/w640-h624/Screenshot%20(4306).png" width="640" /></a></div>It seems FA assumed the alleys were illusory, so their modeling allows no space, except for the tiny patches where the floor is actually visible. Those red alleys are assumed full, just one sack deep, and every other space not seen is <i>assumed</i> filled, mainly 2-deep, with no spacing. </div><div><br /></div><div>That would surely violate norms, but <b>assumptions </b>aren't facts. Yet at 11:19 they cite this imagined lack of proper spacing, and the imagined area's stretching so near to flammable and explosive materials, as a "FACT" (emphasis in narration) that "highlights the substantial and sustained state negligence which led to the formulation of the makeshift bomb." Can't you just feel how much they care about truth and justice?</div></div></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">How the Bomb was Quietly Weakened</span></b></p><div><b>They Did Nothing?</b></div><div>More significant than possible spacing would be the much sought-after removal of this dangerous material. This allegedly never happened, even after requests in 2015 and 2016, even after the photos showing the sacks in early 2020 were published, and even after a dire warning on July 20 of that year.</div><div><br /></div><div>The ever-vigilant Ken Roth, former director of Human Rights Watch, <a href="https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/1418096230551412739">would say</a> "Two weeks before the deadly Beirut blast, Lebanese security officials reportedly warned President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Hassan Diab that 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate stored in Beirut’s port could destroy Beirut if it exploded. <b>They did nothing.</b>" [emphasis mine]</div><div><br /></div><div>He cites <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-security-blast-documents-excl-idUSKCN2562L7">a Reuters article of August 10, 2020</a> that fails to back up the bolded claim. "Lebanese security officials warned the prime minister and president last month that 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate stored in Beirut’s port posed a security risk and could destroy the capital if it exploded, according to documents seen by Reuters and senior security sources." A central letter "sent to President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Hassan Diab on July 20" was not seen by Reuters, but described by an anonymous official, who says he helped Prosecutor General Ghassan Oweidat draft it. “I warned them that this could destroy Beirut if it exploded,” said the official.</div><div><br /></div><div>"They did nothing," as explained:</div><div><div><i><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></i></div><blockquote><div><i><span style="font-size: medium;">A representative for Diab, whose government resigned on Monday following the blast, said the PM received the letter on July 20 and it was sent to the Supreme Defence Council for advice within 48 hours. “The current cabinet received the file 14 days prior to the explosion and <b>acted on it</b> in a matter of days. <b>Previous administrations</b> had over six years and <b>did nothing.”</b></span></i></div><div><i><span style="font-size: medium;">...</span></i></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>[President Michel] Aoun confirmed last week that he had been informed about the material. He told reporters he had directed the secretary general of the Supreme Defence Council, an umbrella group of security and military agencies chaired by the president, to <b>“do what is necessary”.</b> ... "I have no authority to deal with the port directly. There is a hierarchy and all those who knew should have known their duties to do the necessary,” Aoun said.</i> </span></p></blockquote></div><div>This sounds like they DID act, or claim to have acted. But that was already widely doubted, and Reuters had to warn "The correspondence could fuel further criticism and public fury that the explosion is just the latest, if not most dramatic, example of the government negligence and corruption that have already pushed Lebanon to economic collapse."</div><div><br /></div><div><b>They Removed </b><b>80% of the AN</b><b>?</b></div><div><div><br /></div></div><div>While no publicized orders or documents reflect any removal, <b>the balance of scientific blast analysis suggests around 80% of the Ammonium Nitrate was removed somehow, sometime before August 4. </b></div><div><br /></div><div>Let's start with Wikipedia, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Beirut_explosion#Yield">2020_Beirut_explosion#Yield</a>, on estimates of the blast size. Several sources have estimated a larger TNT yield, with a seeming consensus whereby the reported 2,750 tons holds the upper end of a rather wide range of estimates. But for some reason, no estimates run higher than this, and they also agree on a low end, whereby <b>as much as half the stuff had been removed. </b></div><div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>An early study by BRG in Germany (7 Aug) from seismic data produced a yield estimate <b>between 0.5 and 1.1 kt of TNT</b>.[54] </li><li>"An independent estimate by the International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization based on infrasonic data obtained an explosive yield equivalent to <b>0.5–1.1 k</b>t of TNT [63]" Cited for that exact same range: 18 Aug. from the same BRG - "BGR/Seismologie/Erdbeben Aktuell". www.seismologie.bgr.de.</li><li>University of Sheffield 22 Sept from "distance versus time of arrival data as new videos of the explosion became available" estimated between <b>0.5 and 1.12 kt </b>of TNT, respectively.[57] </li></ul></div><div>Two or three sources estimating 0.5 to 1.1 or 1.12 kt might seem solid, but that's quite a wide range to have such agreement on. Something like 0.5kt seems possible to all, but they all agree maybe it was twice that size, as reported. I estimate* this range equates to a low end of 1,280 tons of AN, and an upper end of 2,820 tons, just a bit higher than what everyone reported and assumed was there. So they agreed it COULD be the entire abandoned amount, or maybe half that. </div><div> </div></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div><div style="text-align: left;">* Crude calc based on 2.56t of AN = 1 ton TNT (per Temseh et al.) - and I assume twice the TNT yield = twice the AN, etc.. It might be more complicated, but all sources giving equivalencies come out with this basic ratio. </div></div></blockquote><div><div><br /></div><div>Another study seems a bit less constrained, inching lower, but not with much confidence: Diaz, Jorge (2021). "Explosion analysis from images: Trinity and Beirut". European Journal of Physics - this found for a yield of just <b>0.6 kt of TNT</b>, with a margin of 0.3 kt..[59] = 769 to 2,307 tons of AN - at least 440 tons of it was removed, and maybe up to 70% of it was gone, leaving just 30%. </div><div><br /></div><div><div>The Wikipedia article notes a September 2021, OCCRP investigation into ownership of the AN. "The report also mentions that <b>only 20% of the nitrate originally stored in the warehouse was actually left when it exploded</b>, raising questions about what happened with the rest." The reference includes a dead link, so I can't check the basis for that claim. That might be based on unique information, or on the first of these studies:</div></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S014102962100821X?via%3Dihub">Silos structural response to blast loading - ScienceDirect</a>, 15 Sept. 2021. Wikipedia summary:"Temsah et al. 2021 estimated the magnitude of the explosion. The research was based on a structural engineering approach with numerical non-linear finite element modeling of the grain elevator facing Warehouse 12 where the explosion took place. The numerical study model was based on silos data (geometrical and material properties) and the use of the Conventional Weapons Effects Blast Loading (CONWEP), and the Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian (CEL) methods to generate the blast load. The analysis results proved that an amount equivalent to <b>564 t of AN</b> (or 220 t of TNT) was adequate to generate damages similar to those resulting from the explosion. This amount represents <b>20.5% of the original stored amount</b> (2750 t)."</li><li>Another study yet finds lower yet, and with much more confidence: Aouad et al. (4 October, 2021) found for a TNT equivalent mass of 0.2 +/- 0.08 kt of TNT = <b>308 to 717 tons of AN</b>. Middle estimate: 513 tons remaining, 81% removed. Low end: 89% removed. High end: just 74% removed. </li><li>"This result is consistent with Dewey 2021 that suggests that the Beirut explosion TNT equivalence is an increasing function of distance.[65]" January, 2021.</li></ul></div></div><div><div>Finally, Reuters would report in July, 2021: "The FBI's Oct. 7, 2020 report, which was seen by Reuters this week, estimates <b>around 552 tonnes of ammonium nitrate exploded that day</b>, much less than the 2,754 tonnes that arrived on a Russian-leased cargo ship in 2013. The FBI report does not give any explanation as to how the discrepancy arose, or where the rest of the shipment may have gone." ... "The FBI report ... noted the warehouse was large enough to house the 2,754 tonne shipment, which was stored in one-tonne bags, but added "it is not logical that all of them were present at the time of the explosion"." <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/fbi-probe-shows-amount-chemicals-beirut-blast-was-fraction-original-shipment-2021-07-30/">FBI probe shows amount of chemicals in Beirut blast was a fraction of original shipment | Reuters</a></div></div><div><br /></div><div>Aoud et al., Dewey, Temsah et al. and the FBI - 4 disparate sources agreeing on this range around 5-600 tons, with all others holding a wide range, that somehow had to include a similar low end. In retrospect, their low ends seem like the real estimates, suggesting as little as 30-50% of the AN remained, and 50-70% had been removed. But it was more like 80% removed - perhaps officially and for safety reason, or perhaps stolen, or some of each. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Alternatives and Corollaries</b></div><div><div><br /></div><div>Reuters heard from a "senior Lebanese official" who "said there were no firm conclusions as to why the quantity that exploded was less than the original shipment. One theory was that part of it was stolen. A second theory was that only part of the shipment detonated, with the rest blown out to sea, the official said." </div><div><br /></div><div>The latter seems fanciful. The stuff can hardly be pushed away by a blast wave without also being detonated by it. As the FBI report had to note, it's "not logical" to conclude the stuff was all there. The realistic options are probably down to stolen or - the option this official didn't mention - that it was removed for safety reasons. </div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Update 2/26:</b> this idea is not necessarily that fanciful - Charles Wood suggests maybe "there was only a partial detonation and the remainder was ejected without exploding. AN in bulk without mixed fuel is notoriously hard to detonate, let alone completely detonate/"</div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/Mare_Indicum/status/1629154954668814336">https://twitter.com/Mare_Indicum/status/1629154954668814336</a></div><div>and "From memory unconfined AN needs a minimum of ~ 1m diameter to even propagate a detonation wave. Stacks of AN with gaps would be very hard put to propagate a detonation across any feasible gap." <a href="https://twitter.com/Mare_Indicum/status/1629155789435981825">https://twitter.com/Mare_Indicum/status/1629155789435981825</a></div></div><div>So it could be that the AN all remained and just didn't all detonate.</div><div><br /></div><div>But so far, no one has published or leaked us any proof one way or the other. So ... whoever's doing the publishing and leaking may be covering for their side here. That's a bit of everyone, so it will take some considering.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>Ken Roth, FA and many other supposedly informed sources keep telling us none of the AN was ever removed, and that's just why heads needed to roll, why we need to further punish someone or maybe everyone in Lebanon until they reform. Others take the unexplained <i>removal </i>of the 2,200 tons of AN as a sign of government malfeasance and the need for reform. <a href="https://twitter.com/SeismicSeiss/status/1614395794634977280">https://twitter.com/SeismicSeiss/status/1614395794634977280</a> I guess that's how these things go. </div><div><br /></div><div>It seems the power-per-ton is far greater than assumed by FA and others, and that <b>if it the AN had all been there, </b> for the estimated-around 1.1 kt equivalent blast -<b> the catastrophe would have been five times worse than it was</b>, which is fairly mind-boggling. One way or another - thank goodness it wasn't all there when the fire broke out.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Mapping the Remainder</span></b></div><div>Consider too how the FA modeling includes an estimate of blast center that seems pretty sound - middle of the building, right on bay 8's centered label (see below: "sphere"). It looks like a lazy "drop it in the middle," but the plume really appears that centered. But it was always <b>strangely <i>off-center </i>in their imagined AN area. </b>That could be explained by their area being wrong, because just 564 tons was left. They pointed to safety standards mandating blocks of 300-500 tons or less. It seems the stuff could all be in one block and barely exceed these standards. </div><div><br /></div><div>I went with the higher 564 bags. With 2-high stacking, that would be 282 bags on the floor, so I picked ~282 of their dots (each bay has 8 rows of 30). It should be centered around the blast, with some stacked flush against a door that was worked on, to fit the welders photo. That would most likely fill bay 8 like this, but probably looser and maybe with spaced blocks. Door 3 is the best place to still see bags crammed to the edge (see below). </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJTeg1kkm0n05Z9Hd3jsd0dBvUFoHlADPtUl8lmcMytnSE78TN0rz6nfObXkjsQpICRu-MEDKbQt5kqflrNcNbJFdBC2uFDVR9lbZr_tWd3ZL-rINWHu2aGWhG_14gcWkHB7fAcdTS8P5FfF9-Hbzto0LjtVC3rknu-Ukwk5ZkIwoOUn85bkUsDAitZQ/s1014/Screenshot%20(4285)c.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1014" data-original-width="798" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJTeg1kkm0n05Z9Hd3jsd0dBvUFoHlADPtUl8lmcMytnSE78TN0rz6nfObXkjsQpICRu-MEDKbQt5kqflrNcNbJFdBC2uFDVR9lbZr_tWd3ZL-rINWHu2aGWhG_14gcWkHB7fAcdTS8P5FfF9-Hbzto0LjtVC3rknu-Ukwk5ZkIwoOUn85bkUsDAitZQ/w504-h640/Screenshot%20(4285)c.jpg" width="504" /></a></div></div><div><br /></div><div>Other arrangements are possible, but this is a best single guess for the actual AN area at the time of the fire. This would put the it about 40-45m from the tires and 50-55m from the fireworks, as estimated. All the bags previously photographed would be among those removed. And that kind of makes sense, doesn't it?</div><div><br /></div><div>We don't know that this is the arrangement, but it's far closer to "FACT" than FA's illustration of state negligence that was short on facts but long on imagination. Still, I do appreciate the lovely images, as I use them here in a fair-use public-interest capacity, with constructive criticism. </div><div><div><b><br /></b></div></div><div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">Review, and Where Did the Removed AN Go?</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>This suggested removal could seriously cut into the negligence and inaction components of the disaster. Who has paused to think about that? The president and PM were warned July 20 the warehouse bomb could destroy Beirut, suggesting it was all still there at that time. Ken Roth insists "They did nothing," but they say they acted, no one has provided proof that they did not act, and <b>two weeks later, it seems <i>80% of the stuff had been removed,</i> by someone.</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>It's true just who, when, and where remain unclear. But all that mood music people cue up at the question is uncalled for.</div><div> </div><div><b>Conversely, this raises the importance of other possible factors, like potential <i>terrorist manipulation of the cargo. </i></b>Any arrangement like the one I sketched above might be reasonably safe, so that it required some later, unapproved re-arrangement to become as dangerous as it finally did. That may not be an obvious scenario, but it's an important one that's gotten roughly zero consideration in the Western press, or in the documents leaked from judge Tarek Bitar's investigation. Part 2 will give it some detailed consideration.</div><div><br /></div><div>Was the removal done for safety, or for nefarious purposes? or maybe both? Relocating the AN would obviously lessen the scale of explosive danger at the port, but ironically, it could sharply increase the likelihood of a blast. Consider that if there were plotters willing to unleash this bomb on Beirut, they might have enough investment in the city that they didn't want it irrecoverably flattened. In that case, the removal would weaken the bomb, <i>making its use more plausible.</i> It could be 100% of the AN was scheduled for removal, but the plotters moved when it got to 20% left, because that seemed like the right degree of wallop for their plans.</div><div><br /></div><div>Who moved it? No one has spoken up about it, but we can consider it. To move entire one-ton bags would be quite a large and open operation, almost surely approved by the state. But scooped out and re-packaged, it could be smuggled sporadically, and taken for other uses. </div><div><br /></div><div>At least twice since then, mid-sized stashes of AN were discovered by Lebanese authorities. They busts were made in Arsal and the Bekka valley, long time cross-border smuggling areas for Sunni extremists fighting the governments of both Syria and Lebanon, though not as active by 2020. Others assumed Hezbollah-types were trying to move their loot from Warehouse 12 into Syria, for some kind of terrorism. </div><div><br /></div><div>Some alleged intrigue I can't vouch for: "Lebanese media reported on 23 September that the US ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, was part of a plot to frame Shia political parties with 20 tons of ammonium nitrate belonging to the brother of Ibrahim Sakr, one of the leaders of the right-wing Lebanese Forces political party." (<a href="https://thecradle.co/article-view/2139">The Cradle</a>) </div><div><br /></div><div>All that's shown in this and a later incident is in different, much smaller bags piled up. And, as the same Cradle article explains, "lab analysis later showed that the confiscated nitrate was chemically different and much more recent than that stored in Hangar 12 of the Port of Beirut."<b> It was not re-packaged from this same supply. </b>That's what people wondered about. Another Sakr-linked stash of 28 tons was found in October, but it too was different, found to be under the concentration considered dangerous. (<a href="https://thecradle.co/article-view/2413">The Cradle</a>). Both were said to for agricultural use, and that might be. They could be weaponized, and maybe used to frame people or whatever, but not very well. Some people maybe just had too much imagination here.</div><div><br /></div><div>So if most of the AN from Warehouse 12 was removed, where it went is an open question and a cause for concern. The lack of documents - or just of leaked ones - to explain this removal is part of the question. But the point remains it was not all there - <b>a lot of lives were saved - you can hardly imagine how many there WOULD have been killed if this same situation occurred with all 2,750 tons. </b></div><div><br /></div><div>This MIGHT, depending on details, show that the elected Lebanese government wasn't quite as inept as people say, not quite as in need of babysitting, reforming, or overthrowing. It's possible we could ease up on the regime-changey sadism. And quite likely there's a murky middle story, where the government did move to secure the port, but - for example - did it by some shady arrangement they never wanted to go public about, where most of the AN went "missing," that remains so embarrassing they still haven't spoken up about it.</div><div><br /></div><div>All that remains to resolve, and it's quite interesting. But now it's on to part 2, considering the portion of the AN that remained and did explode, the other things that caught fire and exploded before, just how it all got that way, and why the chain reaction of fire could not be stopped.</div><div><br /></div><div>> part 2: How the Bomb was Sealed Just as it was Lit (forthcoming)</div><div><br /></div></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-67339816642834332023-02-12T08:31:00.056-08:002023-02-18T22:52:16.825-08:00Regarding How the Victims were Killed, by Whom, and Why<p><b><a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/04/alleged-chemical-attack-in-douma-april.html">Douma Chemical Massacre 2018</a> Revisited, Part 3</b></p><p><b>Adam Larson </b></p><p><b>February 12, 2023 </b></p><p><b>(last edits 2/18)</b></p><p>WARNING: GRAPHIC IMAGES</p><p><a href="https://www.opcw.org/media-centre/news/2023/01/opcw-releases-third-report-investigation-and-identification-team">The latest report</a> from the OPCW's Investigation and Identification Team (IIT) on the 2018 Douma chemical massacre maintains the blame on Syria's government, and even offers clues to help narrow accountability efforts. It's been taken as another sound basis to pursue the 12-year regime change agenda, now by punishing the Syrian people with widening sanctions (both de jure AND de facto) for their general refusal to play along so far. This continues even as Syria reels from the massive earthquakes that killed thousands in both Government and Terrorist-held parts of Syria.</p><p>Continuing the tradition of the preceding FFM investigation, the IIT proposes a chlorine gas cylinder was dropped from a helicopter at "Location 2," impacting with a velocity too low to penetrate the ceiling but so high it blew the ceiling open much like a mortar shell would do. Then an optimally swift gas release caused acid injuries of an extreme nature, but with oddly limited visual signs, leading to a delayed-then-sudden paralysis or unconsciousness in 35 cases, when we should expect that in about zero cases. </p><p>All these rather dubious conclusions were posed exclusively as "reasonable," as the IIT acted like every alternate explanation had been ruled out. </p><p>My personal review tries to be open-minded, "chill," and long on concessions. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/02/douma-chemical-massacre-of-2018.html">Part 1</a> considered the alleged airdrop of the cylinder at Location 2. The best explanation remains that it was manually placed next to two existing mortar shell impacts. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/02/douma-chemical-massacre-2018-revisited.html">Part 2</a> went through the likely release and possible concentration of chlorine gas in Location 2, and how it could not well explain those 35 fatalities. The victims were quite possibly killed somewhere else and then arranged beneath the cylinder "impact" for an entirely staged crime scene. Nothing in the IIT report adequately addresses my arguments, although it did entertain some other theories that were suggested to them. </p><p>All of that would mean this crime remains unsolved. And that brings us to this part 3, to explore what else might have <i>actually </i>happened to those people. The truth can't be known with certainty, but the available evidence reveals signs of <b>a managed and marketed massacre of civilians, held prisoner by foreign-backed terrorists. </b>Unusual signs suggest the toxic agent used was probably not chlorine. I propose it might have been <b>diesel exhaust.</b> The same signs also point to <b>direct bondage at the time of exposure, probably in what we call a gas chamber.</b> Finally, there's a strong case the ruling Jaysh al-Islam saw the specific victims as enemies, including a central targeted family whose members they might have kidnapped and later executed. I'm not saying they "gassed their own people."</p><p>This all runs long enough it could made into a part 3 and 4, but I feel all this needs to be seen together here, for the full impact it deserves.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">A Managed Massacre Was Ruled Out?</span></b></p><p>In <a href="https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1618971896808370176">his IIT report review thread</a>, OPCW coverup helper Eliot Higgins said: "some of the loudest voices in Douma denialism claim the victims were killed elsewhere and placed at the site, rather than killed by chlorine gas exposure at the site. The OPCW IIT makes clear this is a fabrication." </p><p>How? As covered in part 2, they decided on a chlorine gas level that killed swiftly, probably based on a prior assumption the people died swiftly (circular reasoning). But that wouldn't be swift enough, so they also suggest some unexplained instant immobility making escape "impossible" and death certain. They only made a case - a possible but not a compelling one. </p><p>But, as Higgins also noted, "The OPCW IIT again addresses the claim bodies were moved to the site at location 2, a claim from the tankies that unsurprisingly is not supported by any real evidence." He cited a passage from the report to explain. Summarized: The victims were not shot, stabbed or bludgeoned. They died around the time of the alleged chemical attack. The IIT haven't seen any videos of bodies being planted, and they never noticed any visual evidence for it. Therefore, the victims most likely died at Location 2, from chlorine exposure, as implausible as that is in reality. </p><p>Full passage (optional):</p><p></p><blockquote><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">"Finally, with regard to the alternative scenario in which the fatalities would have been killed elsewhere and subsequently moved to Location 2 in an attempt to “stage” an attack, the IIT notes that signs of blunt-force trauma or penetrating trauma are not visible in any of the fatalities observed in verified videos and images from Location 2, and that neither witnesses nor medical personnel recount observing blunt-force trauma or penetrating trauma in any of the fatalities, and that those signs are not observed in verified videos and images from Location 2 either. Furthermore, fully established rigor mortis, observed in fatalities being carried out of Location 2 in the early hours of 8 April 2018, indicates that the time since death was no more than approximately 9 to 16 hours. The IIT also notes that it did not obtain from the Syrian Arab Republic or other States Parties, nor was it able to identify, any evidence—including videos, photographs, satellite or drone imagery, open-source information etc.—which would corroborate that the aforementioned staging actions were performed at Location 2."</span></i></blockquote><div>Now compare that to my own long-standing take: </div><div>* I've always proposed the victims were truly dead, and were killed with a toxic gas, to explain the observed pulmonary edema and other signs. Chlorine was a distinct possibility until some signs, discussed below, pointed away from it.</div><div>* <b>The victims were probably held in captivity</b>, explaining the prolonged exposure to a toxic agent they never fled from, and explaining some very unusual clinical signs. </div><div>* <a href="https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1209500863577743361">I noted</a> a case of developing "tache noir" of the sclera that placed time of death pretty close to the reported one (somewhere between 7 and 9 PM), and rigor mortis always seemed to agree. Activists reported the deaths wrongly, but they got the time about right. </div><div>* The massacre managers, aligned with approved media and medical crews (White Helmets, etc.) did not film their massacre of the victims or their staging of the "attack" scene, or they never published the video if so. That might be why there were no videos for the IIT to see.<b> It's not clear why the IIT would expect any different, if they actually entertained this scenario in a meaningful way. </b></div><div><b>* There <i>are </i>supportive clues I and others have noted in the visual record</b>, all of which the FFM and IIT have also seen but didn't recognize. I highly doubt they ever tried. I'll relate some of these. </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgJm5ckCbXuxz0nkyl6Ce_ngJRgGB_Z3-rFLELm6pYUp5fWHlVjf26NCPQOcEmSl1dor-qfUG8NHLciubmiRsnfEO6nIMB16QVMH6uI-NyCA8NOtFAE43EQ8ua_uRYWut4ZEk00QSshKSZy0lSEf4vuFVaRXG_4mWqH5zF0Cp3skILMpJdJQa7vF2CaA/s1200/Douma_planted_bodies.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1200" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgJm5ckCbXuxz0nkyl6Ce_ngJRgGB_Z3-rFLELm6pYUp5fWHlVjf26NCPQOcEmSl1dor-qfUG8NHLciubmiRsnfEO6nIMB16QVMH6uI-NyCA8NOtFAE43EQ8ua_uRYWut4ZEk00QSshKSZy0lSEf4vuFVaRXG_4mWqH5zF0Cp3skILMpJdJQa7vF2CaA/w400-h266/Douma_planted_bodies.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>Four bodies are laid by the curb at the entrance, one of them on a stretcher, and another laid as if being carried head-first into the building, OR feet-first out of it. This looks like an interrupted body planting OR an interrupted rescue, depending. All 4 bodies are there from the first images around 10PM, and not moved until daylight next day (<a href="https://twitter.com/M_H_ALmasri/status/982861689258434560">see here</a> - NEW images to me = new to most). If that was an early rescue, it's strange, and it was never resumed.</div><p></p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWdKaW_nLcyk8CMjEi97Gi2A5zZHU4QUhmMyYo74miCMovYA1tQgs-_Ld7QCKuFMdU_IxoYhJX78Xmw5zij6n_7TrKiF1p0KMhEPZ0D1eXrxwnZpDUOic2oIpWsnEkBihJYO2ENbQI0BAy76JK8nAkJujEkw9LXQKOUC3xioAYWi1ecd-wBip7uLyGTg/s1069/Douma_door%20removed%202.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1069" data-original-width="643" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWdKaW_nLcyk8CMjEi97Gi2A5zZHU4QUhmMyYo74miCMovYA1tQgs-_Ld7QCKuFMdU_IxoYhJX78Xmw5zij6n_7TrKiF1p0KMhEPZ0D1eXrxwnZpDUOic2oIpWsnEkBihJYO2ENbQI0BAy76JK8nAkJujEkw9LXQKOUC3xioAYWi1ecd-wBip7uLyGTg/s320/Douma_door%20removed%202.jpg" width="192" /></a></div>At least 5 doors at Location 2 were visibly forced and/or removed (<a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2021/11/more-clues-from-doumas-location-2.html">see here</a>), reportedly by rescuers. But at least one door, just inside on the ground floor, that had many bodies behind or next to it (right), would almost have to be removed by the victims (immobilized or soon-to-be), or by some body managers. <div><br /></div><div>The bodies are seen in debatably unnatural positions - people just laid on their backs spread-eagle, etc. One victim (right) was laid by the removed door with skirts and socks askew, black soles free of dust after "walking" up those dusty stairs (but then again: knees? crawling?). Babies were left just lying there nowhere near any protective mother. Bodies were piled, left in strange poses, or re-arranged in different familial embraces, some with vanishing jewelry, as noted in <a href="https://climateaudit.org/2018/04/24/douma-videos-and-photos/">Stephen McIntrye's useful timeline</a>. <div><div><br /></div><div>Some bodies were seemingly piled on a rug (below, green) just inside that removed door, and the rug was dragged at an angle into the shower, presumably to aid the widespread and mysterious <a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/05/douma-chemical-massacre-april-7-2018.html">washing of faces and hair</a> shortly before the first videos. We see rags, discarded gloves, even a green respirator mask likely used in that unexplained process. </div><div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaGifx_GTJUlLbUrEQAke6MXFRcpGZEmZkFAtqy6fUSIKdP85RHuqOL_yUx1sy5gWyZ2eeT-jYL5-u8OEZsQU2RFzovuRyGDZtHclAVmxaiFeepjYWHwx2fSe_dLRlASRtwcpnd4mUWUwZdPI6VxK2dFhRBQCxlL7-ATyCr8H9cL1E1jdhMchzo_nHmw/s787/Douma_V%2034%20washing.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="787" height="345" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaGifx_GTJUlLbUrEQAke6MXFRcpGZEmZkFAtqy6fUSIKdP85RHuqOL_yUx1sy5gWyZ2eeT-jYL5-u8OEZsQU2RFzovuRyGDZtHclAVmxaiFeepjYWHwx2fSe_dLRlASRtwcpnd4mUWUwZdPI6VxK2dFhRBQCxlL7-ATyCr8H9cL1E1jdhMchzo_nHmw/w400-h345/Douma_V%2034%20washing.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1aGW8J8OdGDXczcelyoGEIJYlSPLNM_aZIiogNUXpxdLPB_F6ohEd2XqFtdDzFb32HPYmqWDbYfEf5UIWDIFvDw3MPWV5Nr7JgNEiNuJCsCANGEfqRvqU1VCBoE4i4yye5c9VmJOLw8sO3YDqk20XoBN-7BpTvkxttHg23tPVtg3_aF8kI3hncE7HEQ/s849/Douma_V6_crop.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="849" data-original-width="718" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1aGW8J8OdGDXczcelyoGEIJYlSPLNM_aZIiogNUXpxdLPB_F6ohEd2XqFtdDzFb32HPYmqWDbYfEf5UIWDIFvDw3MPWV5Nr7JgNEiNuJCsCANGEfqRvqU1VCBoE4i4yye5c9VmJOLw8sO3YDqk20XoBN-7BpTvkxttHg23tPVtg3_aF8kI3hncE7HEQ/w339-h400/Douma_V6_crop.jpg" width="339" /></a></div>Activists had surmised and "witnesses" had claimed the victims washed their own faces before they finally couldn't move. But that's kind of absurd, and all this wet hair is seen 2.5 to 3 hours or more after their alleged deaths. </div><div><br /></div><div>Some victims had been coated with soot, but some of it was washed off their faces, perhaps, using soot-smeared water basins. It seems they were also <b>trying but failing to erase the unusual yellow-brown skin discoloration</b> beneath that (we'll come back to this).<p></p><p>So to be clear, scene and body manipulation aren't certain, but they <i>are </i>supported as possibilities by plenty of evidence. </p><p>It's been argued that if bodies were planted, someone in the neighborhood would almost surely witness the crime, and they would report it, perhaps with video documentation. That certainly is a risk, but an overrated one. </p><p>This part of Douma was largely in ruins and seriously depopulated by then. It was under active bombardment that had people sheltering, and there had been orders communicated to stay inside and away from windows, due to the shelling and the toxic gas allegedly coating the whole area. Furthermore, if anyone saw the perpetrators - and were <i>seen</i> seeing them - they could be arrested or killed on the spot. </p><p>We don't know where the victims would be killed. It could be somewhere inside Location 2, but there was no sign of another lethal chemical (and the evidence points away from chlorine - see below). It would probably be a remote place never tested by the OPCW, and the bodies were likely brought to Location 2 via the underground tunnels, which are big enough to allow pickup trucks. The tunnels open some 50 meters from Location 2, and the last stretch would be traveled under cover of dusk (sunset 6:59PM vs. rep. attack ~7:30, on average of a few versions). </p><p>So it would run a risk, but no guaranteed exposure, and this does nothing to prove there was no planting. The evidence for it cannot be dismissed.</p><p>The OPCW FFM consulted some German toxicologists who doubted simple chlorine would explain the scene. The chief expert suggested on his own that the bodies could instead be part of a "propaganda exercise," offering some unspecified "elaboration." It's not clear why the OPCW was consulting "tankies" like that, but they were clearly unhappy with the results. </p><p>Finally, grubby hands and clothing - in many but not all cases - might indicate captivity under poor conditions, which could have extended to murder. </p><p>But whatever your doubts or questions about this circumstantial evidence, the evidence we'll consider below strongly suggests <b>the victims were prisoners, were deliberately poisoned, and did have their bodies planted here. </b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">The "Mask of Death" Clues</span></b></p><p>One issue I noticed immediately was <b>a very unusual yellow-to-brown discoloration on some of the victims' upper faces</b>, and assorted issues in the same area of other faces. I established the basic cause quickly, as explained in some detail at the post <b><a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/04/doumas-mask-of-death-part-1.html">Douma's Mask of Death</a></b> (2019 re-write). I stand by that assessment, which I'll re-explain here with important expansions. </p><p></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGIWUlKFCTQ_PXHD-tGQCVjkUP5k_6jwvnG3SKEfrq9laFvXCB14BcSAAbGANdhAqK6VWP5TbpxzYWP_1Lg6lLxfVruEGlNV_qPhGIhxmX33aX9a7-LnopJQdDxDP9lOjLNzlnLstB8dq3wV5C6VeMRfMD5YcXVUyXlCt7Wc2VnAPPkKMLAmF8n4162g/s570/Douma_Mask%20extract%203b.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="570" data-original-width="480" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGIWUlKFCTQ_PXHD-tGQCVjkUP5k_6jwvnG3SKEfrq9laFvXCB14BcSAAbGANdhAqK6VWP5TbpxzYWP_1Lg6lLxfVruEGlNV_qPhGIhxmX33aX9a7-LnopJQdDxDP9lOjLNzlnLstB8dq3wV5C6VeMRfMD5YcXVUyXlCt7Wc2VnAPPkKMLAmF8n4162g/w269-h320/Douma_Mask%20extract%203b.png" width="269" /></a></p><p>The discolored area seems to correlate with the flow of pulmonary edema fluid, originating at the nose and mouth. They would cough this out trying to breathe, but from there it seems to flow over the face in a pattern similar to a "domino" mask. This is most evident on a woman dubbed W7 in my system (<a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/04/douma-cw-massacre-victim-analysis.html">see here</a>), also called Mask 1. She's widely seen, including in the IIT report (see below). This extract shows what should normally not be there, without the disgusting foam and terrified eyes we don't need to see here (and minus some details hidden under the foam). </p><p>If that face gives you the spooks like it does me, realize that's not because Assad's chlorine is so especially evil. It's because part of you realizes that is truly bizarre, and something might be EXTRA-wrong here. </p><p>I've been looking at alleged chemical attacks in Syria and associated fatalities since December 2012, and I've never seen anything else like this. But in Douma, some form of <b>this mysterious skin effect and/or its "mask" pattern appears on some two thirds of the seen victims</b>. I'll show some of them below. Some show it strongly and some fainty, and others not at all. But all 35 victims at Location 2, and 3 others also seen most likely suffered the same fate (as did the full reported 43 - if not even more). </p><p>Note this discoloration is not really a stain, but rather<i> a process inside the skin</i>, frequently accompanied by or replaced with a rash-like irritation in the same area. It seems <b>the edema fluid has a strange effect on the skin. </b>We'll come back to that.</p><p>Almost all details of all cases suggest this fluid flowed primarily "up" their face from the nose and/or mouth, avoiding the chin and lower cheeks. Of course fluids can only flow down under gravity, so this requires a certain position with the victims' faces upside-down, or with their bodies fully <b>suspended upside down at the time of exposure, </b>presumably <b>bound to stay that way</b> and so they could not wipe their faces of the edema fluids, allowing for this readable pattern. </p><p>What a terrible detail. This is not something people at liberty would be doing in their home at Location 2. Some other points in favor of this: some display cyanosis that's often worst at the upper face and ears - some burst capillaries in the face - hair needing washed along with faces.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnPkoBPLIIX7E4p2-Exa1RSzisFrZlhASUQJl8VVtZRnql6dDnBNSoABAtPQraezYWQ3-BxX4Ey1ojwSpHIVsnBcAEUwtJ-295SiS853QwTQ_e4mi3FK4NhMUpNpmblGZzb8In44sQjYpOW5UEdoS2z6f4aMIEcfVjBXg2_daiRQNNZ-ngBztu1gHppQ/s570/Douma_Mask%20extract%203c.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="570" data-original-width="480" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnPkoBPLIIX7E4p2-Exa1RSzisFrZlhASUQJl8VVtZRnql6dDnBNSoABAtPQraezYWQ3-BxX4Ey1ojwSpHIVsnBcAEUwtJ-295SiS853QwTQ_e4mi3FK4NhMUpNpmblGZzb8In44sQjYpOW5UEdoS2z6f4aMIEcfVjBXg2_daiRQNNZ-ngBztu1gHppQ/w336-h400/Douma_Mask%20extract%203c.jpg" width="336" /></a></div>The skin effect is deeper in areas where, it seems, the fluid moved the slowest, lingering in its contact. Here's mask 1 extract again, flipped so we can see it how gravity would have: the flow was quickest at the origin, for less staining at the mouth and nostrils, and slower where it was obstructed and piled up - intensely along her nose, and less so in a widening area "up" the mid-cheeks. The clear lines here across the cheeks and crossing at the bridge of the nose are unusual - likely straps in her case, slowing the fluid on her nose. </div><div><br /></div><div>But almost every case is like hers in that the color is somehow deepest right under the eyes, around the outer rims, and a bit along the top, trailing off before the middle. Finally, discoloration appears at other points including the temples and spots across the forehead, perhaps a lowest point where the fluid would pool up before dripping off, for some lingering contact there. </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-p4-jztG465o/XRyV8BUuTxI/AAAAAAAAIrM/_hZb6lLt4bU1JWSvVRCLZPU0OTf-jZm7QCLcBGAs/s200/forehead_drip.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="200" data-original-width="146" height="200" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-p4-jztG465o/XRyV8BUuTxI/AAAAAAAAIrM/_hZb6lLt4bU1JWSvVRCLZPU0OTf-jZm7QCLcBGAs/s200/forehead_drip.jpg" width="146" /></a></div><b>Note, 2/13: </b>to drip from these forehead points would almost require the victims were suspended upside-down AND craning their necks to face the floor (like at right, or more so). That was probably the best way to cough the fluid out, but you can see how some of it might roll "up" the face as well. I've seen boards JaI used to strap people to. These turned upside-down might explain it, or maybe leaned against the wall at an angle - whatever best explains it. And if the gas used were heavier than air, any position like this would keep their heads down in the worst of it. <b>End note.</b><p></p><p>There are unclear cases and a few exceptions; a pregnant woman (W5), an infant girl (or toddler? G10), and a younger infant (I2) at least, seem laid just on their backs, with fluid to the sides "across" the cheeks and ears, on the back of their clothing, over the chin, and less "up" the face. We also see effects of later flow matching different body positions in Location 2 (see Mask 2), so these only testify to body arrangement after the killing.</p><p>The OPCW's early FFM final report made the briefest note of <b>a "periorbital discoloration"</b> which they found "is <b>not associated with any specific known toxic exposure."</b> It was a mystery. "To determine whether it is due to a physiologic response to exposure to a toxic substance or simply post-mortem changes would require additional steps." (8.101) It's not clear if those steps were ever taken, by them. The IIT report twice lists symptoms including "discoloration of the skin" - no longer "periorbital" - as supporting reports of a chlorine attack, and as unlikely to result from simple dust inhalation. <b>Nothing else of what I'll cover here was even noted by either investigation.</b></p><p>I could find no information about chlorine discoloring the skin like this, across the upper face or anywhere. As far as I could find, there is no post-mortem "masca mortis" like this, and there's no other cause I could find or think of that wasn't some kind of strange. And an important distinction helps us get on track; the "periorbital" part is not so relevant. This is a skin effect where edema fluid ran "up" their faces, including around the eyes, in an area better called <i>peri-periorbital</i>. In fact, there is a total LACK of skin effect within the <i>actual</i> periorbital area (immediately around the eyes, or inside the eye socket). </p><p>WARNING: GRAPHIC IMAGES BEGIN HERE</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: bold; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7oUwIHwa2lmm_pEkKdYYp8721GLSriIm4yNcGoESc6KfWwWD5KJIKsnym_YVxHDWTf78xY0xwQwnc6CEOUXcU6AVLcpvv-8K1tkFURq-OXoJixs-zsL-k45Xh83YRpXEaH7e_Hu30QkpHUkNMrQBizenjG-bXR4uoal-pWIqWxqn6bXY1Gu4vebdPYQ/s507/Douma_Mask%205%20labels.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="437" data-original-width="507" height="345" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7oUwIHwa2lmm_pEkKdYYp8721GLSriIm4yNcGoESc6KfWwWD5KJIKsnym_YVxHDWTf78xY0xwQwnc6CEOUXcU6AVLcpvv-8K1tkFURq-OXoJixs-zsL-k45Xh83YRpXEaH7e_Hu30QkpHUkNMrQBizenjG-bXR4uoal-pWIqWxqn6bXY1Gu4vebdPYQ/w400-h345/Douma_Mask%205%20labels.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>The completely clear patch immediately around the eyes has<b> exactly the shape and size of swimming goggles,</b> everywhere the shape can be discerned. Victim G6 aka Mask 5 is especially typical. There's usually a full and sharp outline on the bottom, where fluids rolling "up" the cheeks would accumulate against the projecting lenses, thence rolling over and around them, but more slowly. A wide backup with deep skin effect continues for the entire curve, and then there's a clear outline around the outer rim where it would flow "up," and a thinner line along the top up to the middle. Any fluids clinging to the curved rim might drip off under gravity here, or just roll up the brow quickly, leaving little sign until the forehead spots. </div><div><br /></div><div>The unknown agent presumably caused the pulmonary edema observed. This is usually caused by an irritant or corrosive substance - including but not limited to chlorine. Any such thing would probably affect the eyes much like chlorine would, but as I have noted in part 2, <b>the victims' eyes totally lack redness to indicate such contact.</b> The skin around the eyes is also unaffected, and the shape of this area suggests just <i>how</i> it was all shielded - with goggles. And this would explain the fluid slowdown marring the upper cheeks so badly. All these mysteries click together. </div><div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlTPq_Ge5suCuRkIwqZe-1kcR0jAyhdGf9U6ig6qA0uYaLPARtWdofVAY5fcospDjP9FcgKTRqAa0QzzGLtBsSOOEa8G5wJbwlWgJMFf8zJ_BVn-bCxX6oEahPhHYl7cSZ9MMBHtQTiFV3iDnFN_GTuSH_ZY_rZbtimmOzN-vdu_ZD5WowVvDRGzJmKQ/s756/Douma_Mask%202-6%20painting%20comp.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="756" data-original-width="444" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlTPq_Ge5suCuRkIwqZe-1kcR0jAyhdGf9U6ig6qA0uYaLPARtWdofVAY5fcospDjP9FcgKTRqAa0QzzGLtBsSOOEa8G5wJbwlWgJMFf8zJ_BVn-bCxX6oEahPhHYl7cSZ9MMBHtQTiFV3iDnFN_GTuSH_ZY_rZbtimmOzN-vdu_ZD5WowVvDRGzJmKQ/w235-h400/Douma_Mask%202-6%20painting%20comp.jpg" width="235" /></a></div><div><p>4 other clearest examples of varied issues surrounding ovals of no such issues at right, Masks 2, 3, 5 & 6. (Examples were numbered upon identification, with #4 less clear) Images saturation and contrast enhanced to clarify, and some "smart blur" to smooth out artifacts, but nothing added. What unifies them is the shape of the affected area - widening up from the mouth and nose, and most extreme around the implied goggle lenses and the bridge of the nose where they would secure.</p><p>Mask 1 displays the colors of burning toast, and in these other cases, the mask area is filled with: yellow discoloration with a red rash surrounding it (Mask 2), skin turned almost black and seemingly hardened, perhaps with blood involved (Mask 3), vivid orange-brown surrounded by mottled and purple-shifted irritation (Mask 5), and a late-appearing red rash with just faint yellow (Mask 6). </p></div><div>Several others of differing clarity were identified for a total of 11 cases I call "mask" (with #11 just now added - see below) + another 13 with no visible mask but some mixture of the related signs (called PPR) = 24. What made for Mask vs. PPR was a bit arbitrary, but 24 total out of 38 seen victims (35 from Location 2 + 3 others seen later) = almost 2/3 of them. Some of them display it mildly, others display it not at all, and some just aren't seen well enough to say. But they probably all suffered the same fate. They all suffocated, yet as far as we can see, they all have those white eyes.</div><div><br /></div><div>We'll consider the effects in a bit more detail, but first, a few questions arise here....</div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">Why Goggles? </span></b></div><div><b>Why do I conclude they were used?</b> The concave shape of the eye socket, the possibility of wiping or extreme squinting are among the other possibilities that could explain the lack of eye burning. But these don't seem to explain this clean and total an effect. It seems the evidence requires swimming goggles, or something of a very similar shape and similar effectiveness shielding the eyes, with enough thickness to cause the suggested fluid slow-down just "under" the eyes. Thin plastic or paper eye covers of the same size might explain it, but not as well. </div><div><br /></div><div>Other skin effect exclusions also seem related, maybe ways of securing the goggles with a tight fit: straps across the cheeks and crossing at the nose with Mask 1 - maybe straps up the outer cheek with the pregnant W5 and Mask 3 - some tab or lump of adhesive, perhaps, on the underside of the goggle shape (Masks 2 & 5), or the same on the top side (Mask 3). Previously I decided the goggles were not secured with the usual side straps. I revise that to say there may have been side straps, just not tight enough to the skin to interrupt the flow there.</div><div><br /></div><div>Then a question I'll ask: <b>Why would I want to make up something so strange? </b>I'm just following the evidence. Sometimes, they say fact is stranger than fiction. Maybe this is just one of those times.</div><div><br /></div><div>Ok, it is strange, because the question is raised: <b>Why would the killers apply eye protection <i>to the people they were murdering? </i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>That's not obvious, but I have some guesses. They all stem from this crime being meant for display and propaganda - something about the visual impact it would have. Maybe the planners felt that acid-burned eyes would look wrong for a sarin-chlorine attack, for some confused reason. Maybe they wanted open eyes staring at the world for best effect, while chemical-injured eyes almost always squeeze tightly shut. One compelling and terrible possibility between those two emerged looking into events preceding this, as the ruling Jaysh al-Islam coalition was battered from Eastern Ghouta, one district after another. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/03/pre-douma-cw-incidents-in-e-ghouta-2018.html">See blog post here</a> for details - for just the relevant faces and a summary, see below.</div><div><br /></div><div>* March 14, a chlorine attack in Hamouriya was reported with 2 young boys shown dead - the smaller one has tightly-closed, swollen eyes, perhaps suggesting irritant/corrosive exposure and that he wasn't given any goggles. The older boy's eyes look fine. No better detail seen. No CW fatalities listed by (now-defunct) VDC for this day. Opposition forces fled from Hamouriya by March 17 (<a href="https://twitter.com/EdmapsCom/status/974852035991474176">per this map</a>). If they had any civilian prisoners they didn't feel like transporting or setting free, they might kill them in the last days, just for convenience and minor propaganda points.</div><div><br /></div><div>* Further back, one I just now ran across (not included in the linked post). February 19, a young child "killed in today’s heavy airstrikes on the rebel-held city of Douma" - infant with oral foam and swollen-looking eyes - blood on the face that is likely someone else's (it's a very bloody morgue scene). A uniform yellow skin color might suggest a prior illness, not directly related. No VDC database to check anymore. No chemical attack on this date had popped up in my earlier looks. No one was fleeing Douma yet.</div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/sakirkhader/status/965722168427466753">https://twitter.com/sakirkhader/status/965722168427466753</a></div><div><br /></div><div>* Then the one that stood out: A March 17 shelling attack in Ain Tarma got confused with a "chlorine attack" in Douma, but just the "shelling" is listed as leaving 3 children dead - likely of a Tarablisi family displaced from Jobar, as listed by the VDC. "Displaced" has often seemed to be code for "kidnapped," and Ain Tarma fell to Syrian forces after <a href="https://twitter.com/EdmapsCom/status/975498809454284801">March 18</a> but before <a href="https://twitter.com/EdmapsCom/status/978896866636193792">the 28th</a>. Two older girls have signs of cyanosis, yellow suffocating foam, yellow or brown fluids on their clothing. One has open white eyes, but there's no visible staining to trace out any goggles they wore, or any fluid pattern. A baby boy shown with them clearly did NOT have goggles - he has red, raw, tightly-closed, badly swollen eyes, with separately burned eyelids,... cyanosis, with purple lips and upper face, white mucous or foam in the mouth and nose - dries yellow residue all over his face from the nose up, some fluid with a brown edge on his cheek (possibly blood-tinged mucous) - irritation but no yellow or brown staining of the skin.</div><div><br /></div><div>Sorry, but it seemed worth showing all 3 puffy-eyed child martyrs:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuOqOo7tqMxyZov3QeqO9JZE_9j_ke151RHHzML23pF4cDak7h04u1Hh-ftaqRoXppNjw_JNpwyTnkgLasF88tC9C9SgHKuRKz_s105U4ScInDHHcqh0I8F-kkhOkrZVF4jbnO7jlrK7ST-6EgiHj_DcZCU5EzWNf56bSui_hB2UZSggxwRU35uCLvdA/s1152/Douma_2-19-3-17.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="447" data-original-width="1152" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuOqOo7tqMxyZov3QeqO9JZE_9j_ke151RHHzML23pF4cDak7h04u1Hh-ftaqRoXppNjw_JNpwyTnkgLasF88tC9C9SgHKuRKz_s105U4ScInDHHcqh0I8F-kkhOkrZVF4jbnO7jlrK7ST-6EgiHj_DcZCU5EzWNf56bSui_hB2UZSggxwRU35uCLvdA/w640-h248/Douma_2-19-3-17.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>There are various other causes for each of these signs that could, hypothetically, result from prior circumstances and the complex and variable event called "shelling." Two of these anyway were not supposed to be chemical attacks, and none of them is clear on being one. None of these clearly matches the effect seen with the April 7 chemical massacre, and they differ intriguingly with regard to eyes. But they're similar to what happened, with the suffocating edema and skin and eye irritation, and very close in time and space. </div><div><br /></div><div>This occular issue doesn't appear that I've seen with older children or adults. Any of them that were secretly gassed may have already been given eye protection. <b>Perhaps the killers just didn't have any goggles in the smaller size these tykes would need.</b> It could be these babies, especially the last one, were such horrible sights that the massacre planners finally located some protection in their size before trying the same thing again with a bigger number of victims.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">Could Chlorine Explain the Mask?</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div><div>The "Mask of Death" skin effect, again, is not evident in those last 3 faces or anywhere else I've seen, but it was widespread at Location 2. This effect is nowhere in the literature on chlorine, which produces hydrochloric (and hypochlorous) acid on contact with water. The only skin color it usually causes is that of the blood flushing the skin - regular irritation. And it happens wherever it contacts, not in a special area of the upper face. </div><div><br /></div><div>Closest matches: Chlorine gas can stain things its own yellow-green color, as seen at Location 4, but not a golden yellow or orange-brown. I've read reports (Hurst?) of some soldiers killed in WWI with faces stained chlorine color after a long stay in a dense cloud of the stuff. It's not something I've heard of anywhere else, and it would probably be all across the face and exposed skin, not in a mask shape like we see. </div><div><br /></div><div>Concentrated chlorine, as seen dripping on a pillow at location 4, does also oxidize to brown. The whole bed there gets stained green by the gas, and it all shifts brown. I haven't read about brown faces in WWI, but ... </div><div><br /></div><div>Considering all that, maybe it was the same blamed gas. If I were to learn chlorine can do this, <b>as well as what's described below, </b>then it could have been the poison after all. The mask shape would be chlorine in the air reacting with edema fluids flowing "up" the face, with all the points above: victims seemingly in captivity, upside-down in googles, with chlorine in the gas chamber. That's still not the reported story at Location 2. </div></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">A Xanthoproteic Process?</span></b></div><div><div><br /></div><div>But even then, there would be a contender, that for the moment stands alone as a specific, plausible explanation. <b>This exact kind of skin discoloration is a classic effect of Nitric Acid.</b> When it comes in contact with "aromatic amino acids," nitric acid (hereafter NA) initiates a "xanthoprotein reaction" (or "xantho<i>proteic</i> reaction") - hereafter "XP reaction." </div><div><br /></div><div>The XP reaction is used in a laboratory setting as a test for amino acids; in a positive test, the solution turns from yellow to orange. <a href="https://warbletoncouncil.org/reaccion-xantoproteica-10005">https://warbletoncouncil.org/reaccion-xantoproteica-10005</a> It's also an effect of NA that just happens on the skin or anything with the right kind of proteins. It's most commonly seen in humans with accidental exposure to liquid NA, which has various industrial, chemical and military uses. </div><div><br /></div><div>As far as I know there might be 5 other chemical explanations, but I could find none yet. Here I'll relate why this fits the bill for the Location 2 fatalities. (also: I'm crowd-sourcing additional references and knowledge, be it pro, con, or whatever, or to propose an alternative cause - comments are open.) A few online sources give details matching what's seen in Douma:</div><div><div><br /></div><div>The xanthoprotein reaction:</div><div>* stains the skin yellow and produces deep, painful burns</div><div><div>* causes mild irritation</div><div>* causes hardening of the skin</div></div><div>* When in contact with the eyes it is possible that severe burns and permanent damage result.</div><div><a href="https://www.reference.com/science-technology/nitric-acid-stain-skin-yellow-9475502370e787b5">https://www.reference.com/science-technology/nitric-acid-stain-skin-yellow-9475502370e787b5</a></div><div><br /></div><div>* causes "specific yellow- to brown-stained wounds with slower accumulation of eschar and slower demarcation compared with thermal burns."</div><div><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19875347/">The nitric acid burn trauma of the skin - PubMed (nih.gov)</a></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>* "Chemical skin burns induced by nitric acid initially showed a bright yellow to brown </div><div>staining with surrounding red and oedematous swelling" </div></div><div><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1748681509006226">sciencedirect.com</a></div><div><br /></div><div>* A progression of the effect over time, with irritation deepening and color shifting from yellow to brown</div><div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFYgOy7VK9w0uc1bGQ_mFvNx4YQokhdfscBkkNT0xOhd1pjqfWIQQKDozGXvCkOg7W7XMmlh8HJ7-IiG7DVTifOTGZABvV2h39LFOWZvhQaYsssITh--BrSTOh1vdNdOphw7FVPC7IsDttXoTMKvKCf-_ZMBIeLlQc5evs3gscOQdRBDo518f_MB14-A/s2070/Douma_XP.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2070" data-original-width="1553" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFYgOy7VK9w0uc1bGQ_mFvNx4YQokhdfscBkkNT0xOhd1pjqfWIQQKDozGXvCkOg7W7XMmlh8HJ7-IiG7DVTifOTGZABvV2h39LFOWZvhQaYsssITh--BrSTOh1vdNdOphw7FVPC7IsDttXoTMKvKCf-_ZMBIeLlQc5evs3gscOQdRBDo518f_MB14-A/s320/Douma_XP.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><a href="https://www.jem-journal.com/article/S0736-4679(14)01096-8/abstract?code=jem-site">A case study with example images - paywalled</a>: I lost the copy I had, but this image can be shared. Victim splashed with liquid NA, direct skin contact - probably not what we see in Douma. The victim washed early, and effect initiated by then is mostly mild - just a golden yellow color, mainly around the facial hair where it might linger. A more brown color, albeit faint, can be seen at the forehead and presumably on the scalp - maybe he didn't rinse as well here and had wet, partly contaminated hair over his forehead for a while, for longer contact. Other areas show red irritation, maybe with slight hardening. White patches are probably from a topical treatment.<p>See also <a href="https://www.jprasurg.com/article/S1748-6815(09)00622-6/fulltext">The Nitric acid burn trauma of the skin - Journal of Plastic, Reconstructive & Aesthetic Surgery (jprasurg.com)</a> and limited abstracts: <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-nitric-acid-burn-trauma-of-the-skin.-Kolios-Striepling/f9f6351eaa75a3ae47a6f3eb3f360044eb6e67d4">semanticscholar.org/</a> - <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1748681509006226">sciencedirect.com/</a> Several cases of accidental exposures to liquid NA are described. Photos show "IIa-b chemical burn on day 1 with relatively pale staining" vs. "intensified yellow-brown staining" seen on day 2 (unclear if this is 24 hours after exposure, less than that, or more than that). This is from brief exposure with early treatment, maybe slowing the effect. A shoulder is shown with small liquid splashes all over, but connected by a burnt line along a shoulder seam that held more soaked-in liquid next to the skin, and it gets worse at the underarm creases. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ6RfSiIRh_yo0T_IMUpZGJ3QzkKwvgBgo80RDAJ8Gk430LmT9ApqMAG9fcZl5T_Jacoju7JVEk4fZPxwd6mDHbVyWkndKbKkGw3zdGx6WeATpmNHznvtBlXJdBEBZCVRIG-qD5Yrgx0cFibgtREhMoJ4qOC43xdchDpv4CHkZfWoc5gJlvy0y5j_Blg/s753/Screenshot%20(4262).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="462" data-original-width="753" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ6RfSiIRh_yo0T_IMUpZGJ3QzkKwvgBgo80RDAJ8Gk430LmT9ApqMAG9fcZl5T_Jacoju7JVEk4fZPxwd6mDHbVyWkndKbKkGw3zdGx6WeATpmNHznvtBlXJdBEBZCVRIG-qD5Yrgx0cFibgtREhMoJ4qOC43xdchDpv4CHkZfWoc5gJlvy0y5j_Blg/w400-h245/Screenshot%20(4262).png" width="400" /></a></div><p>Some cases in Douma show a widening and deepening of the skin effects over time quite similar to this, but seemingly faster from a lack of early management: clear-looking areas grow an irritated red, red areas turn yellow, yellow ones shift to orange and brown, and brown to darker brown. </p><p>Time-frame (approximate, worth refining): death rep. around 7:30 or as I found sometime between 7:00 and 9:00 - first seen 10:15-11 pm, then around 1 am, maybe later in the dark hours, in some inside view after sunrise and up to mid-day - then some bodies are seen outside Location 2 mid-day, including 12:30-1pm, then inside the tunnels, and finally at an underground collection spot near medical point 1, between 5 and 6pm. Some are seen for nearly 24 hours after death before being taken off to a secret burial.<br /></p></div></div><div>Mask 1, icky foam included, specific areas compared: </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsJRoFGSyU7XY5eHvPqY-0cFrcmubTf-74-hhDZfECX549xyIZUbm3LKbLqq2YvueExObOaPzsYIKQvTifXLvMBZnYzjtHIsnT8LucBRyneEeigm9lY0JnIeIBgKesbxpaMKSLIYyOO50v88e2OzQRKHmXQ5KENde966nnjsw1hbcpkwUk-QGbBT9baw/s920/Douma_Mask_1_progression_B.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="429" data-original-width="920" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsJRoFGSyU7XY5eHvPqY-0cFrcmubTf-74-hhDZfECX549xyIZUbm3LKbLqq2YvueExObOaPzsYIKQvTifXLvMBZnYzjtHIsnT8LucBRyneEeigm9lY0JnIeIBgKesbxpaMKSLIYyOO50v88e2OzQRKHmXQ5KENde966nnjsw1hbcpkwUk-QGbBT9baw/w640-h298/Douma_Mask_1_progression_B.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>Here the expansion and deepening of the color are quite evident in images taken hours apart, but all at Location 2 (to pin down: best estimate of time between images). This victim is one of the few that's never seen again after the bodies were moved mid-day on April 8. The latest view is probably 14-18 hours after death. Again, the clear stripe in the middle of this is probably where a tight strap ran across her cheek. Also less affected: an odd spot on her nose might testify to other masking, or to something randomly stuck on there, shielding the skin from most of the fluid - even at the end it's partly unaffected. </div><div><br /></div><div>Her exceptionally dark pattern color suggests she had the fluid left on her face longer than most. Killed earlier? No. Observe - her face is in a similar position to what it was in bondage, so <b>new foam here at Location 2 flows "up" her face in about the same way, adding to the earlier mask pattern in a way that perhaps no others do. By having "more of the same," she clarifies what they all had to start with, when they were killed.</b></div><div><br /><div>Mask 2: </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXKdmqVEm1sYUcBXjUmvCUc6dbXrDL_VwaIeb7RcGxRUKOFiRFsVTh216axPZlMIj3WjZaGQcXXaNXiAC-PJTQLwg3FcTonDObxdGd1KfxH4D7AvzIDjb57EuRJFtgOR3yG0_9KcfJD4Kq5GAobsavvO2_wjOGQ5DpYrFiUmKhY_rCv1wXtAVwsSObiw/s1456/Douma_Mask_2_progression.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="1456" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXKdmqVEm1sYUcBXjUmvCUc6dbXrDL_VwaIeb7RcGxRUKOFiRFsVTh216axPZlMIj3WjZaGQcXXaNXiAC-PJTQLwg3FcTonDObxdGd1KfxH4D7AvzIDjb57EuRJFtgOR3yG0_9KcfJD4Kq5GAobsavvO2_wjOGQ5DpYrFiUmKhY_rCv1wXtAVwsSObiw/w640-h282/Douma_Mask_2_progression.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>2 views inside Location 2: early with almost no visible mask, but it's strong by the yellow-tinted photo - probably later, around noon, and different camera & lighting as well). 1 view outside with advanced mask, just before the dried foam cone was hosed away. In 2 PM views at Location 1, it's stronger yet. Last view is ~20-23 hours after death, and a bit longer since the skin exposure began. Note the later flow from the corner of the mouth sat longer than the original up-the-face fluid, for deeper brown stains along the edge vs. a deep-looking upper cheek burns just hitting the yellow-orange stage ... and one hopes he was upside down for less than the 15 hours before they hosed that foam away. </div><div><br /></div><div>Mask 6/G10 ("G9" in error): </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghCy-lugHWiKvcQtyo6GxJgcbz3k1Nc_Q6huzoWJPMO7v7fjhFHavbaD_UXk78J0uoI_FzfbqTwjo-NZZqj3fbb2Wa8gLETz1rdXzhzpeJY_iCuclncSSi1kicfNMFBpSPMvbqkLiBQF3LykyY5VzoMCHT735xUhpfN3ezIJX_4YMDRDin8eheJgwWXA/s977/Douma_Mask%206%20comp.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="364" data-original-width="977" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghCy-lugHWiKvcQtyo6GxJgcbz3k1Nc_Q6huzoWJPMO7v7fjhFHavbaD_UXk78J0uoI_FzfbqTwjo-NZZqj3fbb2Wa8gLETz1rdXzhzpeJY_iCuclncSSi1kicfNMFBpSPMvbqkLiBQF3LykyY5VzoMCHT735xUhpfN3ezIJX_4YMDRDin8eheJgwWXA/w640-h238/Douma_Mask%206%20comp.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>Just irritation, appearing late but aggressive, especially at a chin scratch, a cheek spot - discoloration strongly at the yellow left earlobe, just faintly on the face. No visible foam/fluids, and no additional skin effect to go with its flow. Location 2 views are hours apart - one well before 1 am and one well after (it was around 1am that she was picked up by a White Helmets "rescuer" for a photo opportunity, moved a few feet, and set back down on top of other bodies). Left view enhanced for best view of any issues - almost zero aside from that earlobe, faint pink at the chin scratch. Later: orange earlobe, faint yellow, intense rash filling in a partial mask pattern. Time frame: same as above.</div></div><div></div><div><br /></div><div>M1: alleged survivor Nasr al-Hanan claims this is his brother Hamzah, whom he watched washing his face at the sink before he collapsed, at least 3 hours before this view with wet hair. He was left in a strange pose. Nasr showed a cell phone image taken later. I caught this late, not included in Mask of Death post, but he fits, with brownish color at the upper lip where his last foam had pooled up, and the usual area on the nose and upper cheeks, below unaffected, open, all-white eyes. He's Mask #11 then (unless I revise and demote #10, or #9 - both are kind of weak). Timespan unclear.</div><div><br /></div><img border="0" data-original-height="848" data-original-width="1322" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKK_iPOHK-Ufmak3uv6xXdG_kg44roKTQK0h5jHim5d3yRX9iQ6DVDjamzjDdV35L6rWbkYb3QlxHSg1N1SiE0X8pBz-4fd16_0GUXIMEK1EG26nOusRNJdAuonHXvVRv4oixPoFJmXaK3A_X_mka4U3g-Dt7hQSCevDVn2lOuHiAjZoqMEulDLEBBiA/w640-h410/Douma_mask_Hanan.jpeg" style="color: #0000ee; text-align: center;" width="640" /></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><p>Mask 5 progression is shown below. Others also show some deepening of the effect, but let's move on. </p><p><b>Compression and hardening of the skin</b> also occurs with the XP reaction, and this is seen in at least some of the Douma victims with the more advanced effect. There is some indication with Mask 1, especially on the ring above the left eye, but it's more evident with mask 5, a girl, and mask 2, a boy.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqtsrrWmc76-CvZwWSbqwrtRHORLMrqgeFuOmmzsdJW1xQs6TOX6mRpPUXiWs3ze-J0ZatWi9vJ86DEO9s-9A7msOV-7Th9lX12Tm3tA3QYXuTvBkWN6B7zBS0z5Pd9Zqg_9qBOpGpa01RRuAEGcCp4tv7UQUmIDncz7V4yEuhda3pJwBcAuAbwIN2IQ/s597/Douma_mask_hardening.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="517" data-original-width="597" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqtsrrWmc76-CvZwWSbqwrtRHORLMrqgeFuOmmzsdJW1xQs6TOX6mRpPUXiWs3ze-J0ZatWi9vJ86DEO9s-9A7msOV-7Th9lX12Tm3tA3QYXuTvBkWN6B7zBS0z5Pd9Zqg_9qBOpGpa01RRuAEGcCp4tv7UQUmIDncz7V4yEuhda3pJwBcAuAbwIN2IQ/w400-h346/Douma_mask_hardening.png" width="400" /></a></div>Mask 5/G6 (left): sunken appearance, orange color fading to brown at the upper boundary below the eyes, but not past that line - seemingly pressing blood from the capillaries to create a mottled flushing of the cheeks well below the orange patch, outside of a wide ring of pallor along the mask's edge. Mask 2/B6 (right): deep yellow coloration under the eyes, perhaps blistered out, but likely compressed - a flushed area just below, with an extra-red band along the mask's edge, just overlapping the yellow - Some brown patches near the mouth appear sunken, with a narrow band of squeezed pallor separating them.</div><div><p>And note in these 2 cases that whatever the effect, it remains in the surface affected area and not in unaffected areas - blood is displaced mainly into tissue that's already flushed, with little to no creep into the undamaged skin. Clear skin is found lower on the face, sporadically in the middle, and inside those perfect goggle outlines. The boy has one spot of yellow beginning under his right eye, probably from after the goggles were removed, and nothing else inside those rims.</p><p>Finally, some points on the edema fluids that seemingly caused this.</p><p>IIT 6.105 "...some of the secretions observed were also pinkish/brown in colour, which is likely due to a combination of blood-tinged sputum and changes in its colour due to the time elapsed between when the exposure occurred and when the fatalities were documented."</p><p>FFM: "Some of the secretions also have an additional light brown colour, which is similar in appearance to gastric contents or blood tinged sputum." </p><p>Perhaps all of it is the relevant yellow-brown; white foam is more an optical effect of many reflective bubbles than it is the true color. Collapsed to liquid, this can be seen on faces and the floor in golden yellow, brownish yellow and brown states. Fluid by victim B4 at least does include blood (it's seen on his face later), but most don't seem to. This is quite possibly from the XP reaction with proteins in the mucous. It may happen slower than it does in the skin. Mask 5/G6 has skin change drastically, as her pool of edema fluid expands but barely changes color from golden yellow. Mask 1 foam collapses for less glare, but also seems brown-shifted in the late view.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLpVujgO5d2EmiLdKK6beXlCLZ-_1pWe7A6sRfaLCZslixBOdVLerZqFuve_45gsy0UdR1y53RCRvkKyXz-F3pFWoCw0wNbRzjq8ru9te3b1UdmFnKslXS5R_Ona17RnDhVQrGydnRKMlB0k4Sh-3t8jQfdP-jamtnlv4bxluiGggb_Dka6_p2QcvJaA/s971/Douma_Mask%205%20comp.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="971" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLpVujgO5d2EmiLdKK6beXlCLZ-_1pWe7A6sRfaLCZslixBOdVLerZqFuve_45gsy0UdR1y53RCRvkKyXz-F3pFWoCw0wNbRzjq8ru9te3b1UdmFnKslXS5R_Ona17RnDhVQrGydnRKMlB0k4Sh-3t8jQfdP-jamtnlv4bxluiGggb_Dka6_p2QcvJaA/w400-h264/Douma_Mask%205%20comp.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p><span style="background-color: #ffe599;">This is a detailed process that is not known to result from chlorine exposure. </span></p></div><div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Diesel Exhaust? </span></b></p><p>The evidence could suggest poisoning directly with pure liquid Nitric Acid, in a breathable vapor. But that might cause a quicker and bloodier death than we see. The NA was more likely produced secondarily to - for example - inhaling airborne NOx. NOx refers to nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2), one of which turns to the other in rapid order. <b>NOx creates nitric acid on contact with water. </b>This is much like what chlorine does, but it's a different acid with different effects. The suggested skin contact is with NA only in a dilute form, in the edema fluids that were coughed up, but likely reacting further with particles still in the air. Eye contact, again, seems absent.</p><p>Atmospheric NOx can have many plausible sources, but perhaps most commonly, it comes from <b>diesel exhaust. </b>This is generated automatically as waste by all kinds of vehicles and machinery that burn diesel oil as fuel. Just fill the tank, turn the key, and the exhaust can be piped into a sealed room full of people.</p><p>The Nazis used this method in some of their extermination camps, including Belzec, Sobibor, and Treblinka. As I've had explained to me, the diesel used then produced enough carbon monoxide that it was the primary cause of death in those gas chambers. As I gather, modern diesel produces much less CO and would, most likely, kill more slowly with the NOx it also produces. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_a8gg_NG7-hAkWfeEiuTX_ZsnSQlCH_vqQqDScPExv6sz4IY1RkjW0k8bi_JHwYYuAGCEFv8hNi4QaRZiYTA6XOBMJGTCQSkSOvbbtWSqlMyB8XCEv3xzB19H-omb0IANKKU5TTJU-6S6fHbEhQj9PaGNLRDVqfgT-j6cfUb-auHtmkW-F3oeIXNaag/s960/Douma_V20.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="960" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_a8gg_NG7-hAkWfeEiuTX_ZsnSQlCH_vqQqDScPExv6sz4IY1RkjW0k8bi_JHwYYuAGCEFv8hNi4QaRZiYTA6XOBMJGTCQSkSOvbbtWSqlMyB8XCEv3xzB19H-omb0IANKKU5TTJU-6S6fHbEhQj9PaGNLRDVqfgT-j6cfUb-auHtmkW-F3oeIXNaag/s320/Douma_V20.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>I'm no expert, but Diesel exhaust also seems a likely source for the <b>black, sooty residue </b>seen heavily on some victims. At right: Infant I2, seen above, embraced by a sooty water basin, here at Location 1 much later, with some developing rash on the nose, upper cheeks, at some cheek scratches. This baby looks like someone who climbed up a chimney. Others who don't look like that could just be the ones suspended across the gas chamber, further from the exhaust pipe. </div><div><br /></div><div>Impurities in diesel exhaust might also add to<b> the viscosity of pulmonary edema fluids.</b> The FFM had noted an unusually persistent foam in some cases. Mask 5 as shown above has foam that collapses into a gummy residue, almost like artificial whipped cream. Mask 2/B6 as seen here, B1 more notably, and several others have the foam dry into a cone that never collapses and had to be hosed away the next day.</div><div><br /></div><div>Note 2/13: The basement at Location 2 might be worth another look. There was a sooty area, some details I forget, and would the OPCW even see diesel exhaust in their tests, or consider it an issue?</div><div><p></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">A New Method?</span></b></p><p>Again, I've never seen anything like this before. It may have been a new method with unexpected results. Consider: This appears alongside sarin claims that fell apart. Maybe they still had some sarin, had meant to kill the victims with it, and/or spike the scene with it. But say it was blown up en route, along with its handlers, amid Jaysh al-Islam's general military rout. If so, they might rig up a diesel exhaust gas chamber, and then find out about this downside later. Last-minute improvisation seems likely all around, and might explain a lot of the exposed seams. </p><p>Or maybe it was a known method, one used before less visibly, but some additional mistakes or developments messed it up here. For example, the gas chamber might have been damaged by shelling, delaying body removal and cleanup. And there are other possibilities, of course including that I'm completely off base.</p><p>It could well be another agent than diesel caused the NA. Maybe there was no NA and there's another explanation for the process we see. Perhaps there's another way to explain the skin effect, the flow pattern and/or the exclusions. But so far only one proposed scenario actually explains all this evidence.</p><p>When they stopped moving, I suppose the victims had their goggles and binding removed, were initially washed, and found to look fine. They were transported to Location 2, probably by truck via the underground tunnels, then carried and arranged inside. The chlorine cylinder was placed then if it wasn't already, and the valve was opened however it was, filling the site and leaving a chemical footprint. </p><p>The gas release may have been rushed, causing the last body movers to drop and leave 4 bodies at the entrance because the gas cloud was coming. Maybe the mysterious 8 bodies of the reported 43 were simply in the bed of a pickup truck when the work team fled the scene. </p><p>The process might have been rushed due to that deepening skin reaction - it looked wrong and was getting worse. Even then, by the time the gas was thin enough to work the scene again, W7 and B3 looked terrible and others were getting there. They tried and found it did not wash off, so the first photo shoot was rushed before they looked even worse, and included wet hair on most victims. Then some later views look worse anyway. </p></div><div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Review of OPCW Consideration</span></b></p><p>I don't expect to convince many people, or any of the coverup helpers, of this exact hypothesis. They can confidently assume the features noted must have another explanation, even if none is evident. Like everything else, from the cylinder "impact" forward, it "must be" whatever allows a definite Syrian regime chlorine attack that's fit to impose new sanctions over.</p><p>But OPCW investigations never explained any of the related mysteries I've correlated here. The FFM considered the "periorbital discoloration" to be <b>a mystery seemingly unrelated to chlorine</b>. To find out what it was "would require additional steps" they probably never took before <b>the IIT presented skin discoloration as probably some kind of chlorine effect after all.</b> They listed it that way twice, alongside miosis, which also has nothing to do with chlorine. </p><p>The IIT report's figure 6 shows a baby, a boy and a woman killed, labeled "PERSONS WHO DIED AS A CONCEQUENCE OF BEING EXPOSED TO CHLORINE." End "fact." The pixelated vs. clear areas indicate they want to show us clouded white eyes and edema foam, and perhaps the discoloration as well.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggAAPNhEclzSmwulhcozjoSEXaBtE_Nqj4NUQisXV7J8pOftllY2MwijoQJW0gJN83O8h6GErDboRDlm6uGrpnNy4I9PqkngCx1paCVwUFYryXePxIfDUJGFc064fyhaBsFfqCMkG3hzlMSTFGrryi2Udy_ROVVxRucF5rmmzBoDdxoQXHlHBtQcNOJw/s1004/Screenshot%20(4240).png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="455" data-original-width="1004" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggAAPNhEclzSmwulhcozjoSEXaBtE_Nqj4NUQisXV7J8pOftllY2MwijoQJW0gJN83O8h6GErDboRDlm6uGrpnNy4I9PqkngCx1paCVwUFYryXePxIfDUJGFc064fyhaBsFfqCMkG3hzlMSTFGrryi2Udy_ROVVxRucF5rmmzBoDdxoQXHlHBtQcNOJw/w640-h290/Screenshot%20(4240).png" width="640" /></a></div><div><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">Shown: mask 6, mask 2, mask 1 with signs more consistent with <b>death involving nitric acid <i>instead of</i> chlorine (which produced hydrochloric acid)</b>, and exceptionally clear mask patterns showing <b>they died under bondage</b> in <b>a story the FFM/IIT "witnesses" - White Helmets and otherwise - would likely have known, but never told them about. </b></span></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">But why would the "rebels" gas "their own people?"</span></b></p><p>Thought-impaired critics reflexively ask this, assuming the answer and assuming a faulty premise that the people running Douma at the time cared about the victims, considering them "their own." But in fact, <b>the ruling militants of Jaysh al-Islam ("Army of Islam" - hereafter JaI) may have murdered some of<i> their enemies among the Syrian people</i> here</b>, people whom the OPCW's flawed investigations claim to champion.</p><p>It's worth relating some backstory that, for a few paragraphs, might seem unrelated. I've never researched this deeper than presented here: <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/05/bakriyeh-family-deaths.html">Bakriyeh Family Deaths</a> for a clunky, fuller explanation of what I summarize below, with sources linked. I probably have a few less-relevant details wrong. Feel free to read up double check me or learn more.</p><p>Jaysh al-Islam started out of Douma in 2011 as Liwa al-Islam ("Banner of Islam" - LaI), supported by Saudi Arabia to hopefully lead a march on Damascus and to head up a new government. They gained fame for some assassinations in mid-2012, and grew to control Douma by year's end, amid grisly and contested massacres. From this base they expanded across the Eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus and into the city too (Jobar). Along the way, they absorbed other groups until, in the Fall of 2013, LaI became the head part of the larger Jaysh al-Islam coalition. </p><p>Just like its head, JaI was known as brutal, repressive, and anti-democratic. JaI was almost certainly behind the December, 2013 abduction & later killing of the "Douma 4" - local activists, including Razan Zaitouneh, who had criticized abuses of the militia and its founding leader Zahran Alloush. Alloush was the son of a preacher exiled in Saudi Arabia. He had openly expressed sectarian and genocidal views, promising to "cleanse" Syria of Alawites, Shi'ites, and people of Iranian ancestry. He walked those comments back, but LaI/JaI kidnapped civilians on sectarian lines by the thousands. In Adra alone, early December 2013, they teamed up with Al-Qaeda franchise Jabhat al-Nusra to commit a grisly massacre of unclear size, and then a mass kidnapping of several hundred (maybe over 1,000) mostly Alawite citizens. JaI kept the captives in squalid conditions and used them at will. They openly placed women in cages on rooftops to deter airstrikes, and used men for slave labor. Some died while digging a famed "tunnel city" beneath Douma and much Eastern Ghouta. </p><p>These and other captives before and since may also have been <i>killed</i> at will to flesh out allegations, like the August 2015 <a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/08/douma-market-attack-masterlist.html">Douma market "attack"</a> (112 killed, almost all of them adult males) and the <b>August 2013 Ghouta chemical massacre </b>of several hundred (<a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2021/06/2021-ghouta-sarin-attack-reports.html">2021 Ghouta reports</a>). Whatever all they did, it was met with occasional muted criticism from Western Human Rights groups and nothing from hostile governments, except maybe to blame some of their biggest crimes on the Syrian state. </p><p>Jaysh al-Islam proudly opposed the Syrian government <i>and</i> ISIS, the Islamic State, claiming they were secret allies (along with Iran and the "Mahjoos" and maybe even the Israeli Jews). Besides that 2-front war, fought alongside Jabhat al-Nusra, and another waged on civilians they considered apostate ... and another on opposition activists who opposed them ... some of Jaysh al-Islam's endless struggles were with other Sunni Muslim opposition fighters. </p><p>As they expanded from 2011 onward, they variously allied with, displaced, absorbed, or crushed other opposition groups. And sometimes they pushed it too far. <b>The biggest rebellion JaI faced was called Jaysh al-Umma </b>- Army of the <i>Muslim Community</i> (as opposed to the more abstract Islam). This was led by a prominent group called <b>Douma Martyr's Brigade (DMB)</b>, but included others who had had enough. It ran at a low boil from September 2014 until Jaysh al-Islam formally declared war on the rebels in January 2015. They wiped out the rebellion in a few days of this, perhaps with Saudi intelligence help. </p><p>Jaysh al-Umma fighters and leaders, of various original groups, were amnestied and re-absorbed, killed, arrested then killed, or left scattered in hiding. Those who escaped the purge stopped rebelling at all, and <b>sided with the Syrian government in its fight against the Islamist monster ruling Douma and E. Ghouta. </b>That's not a flattering story for the Jaysh al-Islam "freedom fighters" or the Saudi Kingdom backing them. It seems JaI were just too effective and too ruthless for their own good. </p><p>Others whom Zahran Alloush rubbed the wrong way likely helped betray his position so the Syrian air force was able to kill him and several top commanders on December 25, 2015. Jaish al-Islam carried on with its control of Eastern Ghouta until the offensives of early 2018 whittled that down to Douma and then nothing. But Alloush's death seems to mark the start of a long slide from quite a height of power they held in 2014.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVoW5bYAw6_i_OQ4xTPXO7PrPzaPJ0xOBAFJkN7U1Q8FxDi2ZUc-DHZwykjTlrvINLSHSY4-NTgauzf0I2sXtr5AUJ40oQ-55DWCCKmSrvLf78lLqsIfZ89dH759rtv7zWtWudvaC2Qmxl7vA5mn5aGtQd4y8vTS-QWpox2Wfh-VE2OVxBxPAb5kBXmA/s320/Douma_Mohammad%20Dyab%20Bakrieh%202.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="320" data-original-width="268" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVoW5bYAw6_i_OQ4xTPXO7PrPzaPJ0xOBAFJkN7U1Q8FxDi2ZUc-DHZwykjTlrvINLSHSY4-NTgauzf0I2sXtr5AUJ40oQ-55DWCCKmSrvLf78lLqsIfZ89dH759rtv7zWtWudvaC2Qmxl7vA5mn5aGtQd4y8vTS-QWpox2Wfh-VE2OVxBxPAb5kBXmA/s1600/Douma_Mohammad%20Dyab%20Bakrieh%202.jpg" width="268" /></a></div>The Douma Martyr's Brigade was led during the rebellion by Majid Khayba. He took the helm 5 months earlier when its founding leader, <b>Omar Diab Bakriyeh</b>, was killed in fighting. When only those who cooperated with Jaysh al-Islam were allowed to exist, DMB cooperated. But Bakriyeh reportedly died in clashes with the Syrian army on April 4, 2014, when his JaI allies failed to get reinforcements to him in time. Or maybe their men got there and killed him. And maybe there wasn't even a battle that day. The true story can't be known. </div><div><p></p><p><b>On the same day, 4/4/14, one <i>Amjad Diab Bakrieh</i> from Douma - the commander's likely brother by matching middle and last names names - was reportedly killed in unrelated "shelling."</b> (an Arabic middle name is usually the father's first name). Bakriyeh is a rare local name. Per the database of the Douma-based VDC (now defunct), <b>only two people named Bakriyeh</b> had been killed in the whole Syrian conflict from 2011 to then. It doubled to 4 that day. And from such a small pool, how many men named Diab Bakriyeh were there to have sons killed on the same day? Probably just one. <span style="background-color: #ffd966;">This smells of <b>family targeting</b>, papered over with some falsified reporting.</span></p><p>After Bakriyeh's death, Majid Khayba took the helm at DMB until he was arrested and executed in 2015 following the rebellion. The open friction leading to that was yet to come when Bakriyeh was slain, but that might play in. Beyond his brother, the commander 's wider family <i>might </i>eventually be seen as targets, especially if other relatives continued annoying JaI. And that could matter since <b>the OPCW's Location 2 with the 35 bodies was reportedly a home of several Bakriyeh families</b>. As some media reports noted and as the Douma-based VDC listed them, <b>11 of the identified 35 fatalities were named Bakriyeh.</b> With relations not all clear ("maiden" names are kept in marriage), some other victims will surely be related, and it could be that most or all of them were related. </p><p>Commander Omar Diab Bakriyeh would likely have a son named Diab, in honor of his own father. But then so might any of his brothers. So these 2 girls found at Location 2<i> could be </i>the commander's granddaughters or grand-nieces: Jouri Diab Bakriyeh (Child - Female), Qamar Diab Bakriyeh (Adult - Female). Others might relate, but middle names are left off in most cases.</p><p>It's not a common name. Including these 11, the VDC martyr's database listed a total of <b>17 Bakriyehs</b> killed in the conflict from 2011 to 2018. Another source adds one more for 18. All but one clearly hailed from Douma, and the other likely does. <b>Some 2/3 of them allegedly died under that one chlorine cylinder.</b></p></div></div></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div><div><div><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Side-note, optional: What seem to be two other relatives are telling. The VDC listed a Fahid Mohammad Dyab Bakrieh killed 3-23-2012, adult male, age 22, from Douma. Notes: "shot in the heart by a sniper's gunfire" - presumably a regime sniper, except that allegation is always dubious. Dual middle name makes the father clear, and commander Omar was also called "Abu Fahed." His son here was likely the main namesake of the Martyr's brigade as it set out rebelling, ultimately on 2 fronts. And this means at least 3/4 of the first Bakriyeh deaths were probably all related. Maybe it's 4/4. Then on April 14, 2018 - just a week after the chemical massacre, as it happens - a probable nephew of the fallen commander, Mustafa Muhammad Diab Bakiriyeh, from Douma, was killed fighting on the Aleppo front and/or with an "Aleppo Front" (Jabhat al-Halab), apparently allied with the Syrian Arab Army. Times change.</span></p></div></div></div></blockquote><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKfN2lspUEJArlreE9IZ5qJkEQTDyuVZD9WmaSPmp6E4qTXm6t-z1g9t3PeViiqapmhWR_nrONvBTDFeRGoNCkJMXAeg2ENKfNQNtCAzcp5rZgmyZK9jS-mSvC25uKaID8t-9tAcZnJX1GyymWaSTZ-qgTRmXFVyTFwzXR5rORyn_2egnwDutlwzkzeA/s640/Douma_fragpat_model_4.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="640" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKfN2lspUEJArlreE9IZ5qJkEQTDyuVZD9WmaSPmp6E4qTXm6t-z1g9t3PeViiqapmhWR_nrONvBTDFeRGoNCkJMXAeg2ENKfNQNtCAzcp5rZgmyZK9jS-mSvC25uKaID8t-9tAcZnJX1GyymWaSTZ-qgTRmXFVyTFwzXR5rORyn_2egnwDutlwzkzeA/w400-h288/Douma_fragpat_model_4.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>Let's return now to those two likely mortar shell impacts on the balcony at Location 2 (see part 1 as needed). The obvious culprits of this explosive shelling would be the Syrian Arab Army, but that's not so certain. Syrian forces engaged militants in a police and then military fashion only until October 2012 (IIRC), when they gave up on trying to control Douma. They probably engaged in some shelling then, but I don't think they ever got back in at short-range mortar distance of this building even at the end in 2018. I think SAA was fighting only on the outskirts of Douma, to the south and maybe east, when the surrender came down. As noted in part 1, the balcony damage suggests those shells came from the north, at a relatively short range. That is <b>the SAA <i>might</i> be ruled out, meaning this damage <i>had</i> to come from opposition infighting. </b> <p></p><p>For example: following the crushed Jaysh Al-Umma uprising, Jaysh Al-Islam might have put out a fatwa (religious decree) ordering the arrest of the whole Bakriyeh family. Or maybe it came earlier, helping to spark that uprising. It could be some were nabbed at their various homes, but here at Location 2, the greatest number of Bakriyehs lived, alongside in-laws and maybe some family friends. Perhaps an armed few of them put up resistance when JaI came to take them.</p><div><p></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOhyNr5Bu1sTHHX8ZEFPlUJAjucI1TXH-s0jokHzKUI9iXKhCqSXZhNRa9E3dbTy6t5DZu-fmapDJQ9VVtSXn9PjYT2HKG4skOcBMomEgYLYoMLhudG-J8T-ps3yH5Z8TudLht7NhgihCqtMgQ10hF5W_et3wpnMwp97uZHNNixfXQgWJuf9BtPZmoMA/s954/fragpat_Douma_north.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="954" data-original-width="895" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOhyNr5Bu1sTHHX8ZEFPlUJAjucI1TXH-s0jokHzKUI9iXKhCqSXZhNRa9E3dbTy6t5DZu-fmapDJQ9VVtSXn9PjYT2HKG4skOcBMomEgYLYoMLhudG-J8T-ps3yH5Z8TudLht7NhgihCqtMgQ10hF5W_et3wpnMwp97uZHNNixfXQgWJuf9BtPZmoMA/w375-h400/fragpat_Douma_north.png" width="375" /></a></p><p></p><p>A family sniper may have been holding attackers at bay up on that balcony and/or the room below. A larger punched hole (white box) allows for a limited but protected view, and maybe room for a rifle barrel to poke through. The NE corner next to that was unusually free of fragmentation marks (tan box). The shooter might have been there when the corner shell arrived, and his (or her?) body absorbed all the shrapnel directed into this corner. </p><p>And at any rate, that's one possible cause that might relate to the fate of the families living there - not because the chlorine cylinder landed there but because that's when they were kidnapped, after their defenders lost a fight. As far as I know, there's no clear evidence for or against that - nothing to prove they had been at liberty in their homes until that night, or to prove they were imprisoned. But they <i>might</i> have been held captive ever since, along with others captured before and after, coming to include all those faces we would see dead in 2018.</p><p>Perhaps the name link has no relevance to the Douma massacre, and true story is another one we don't know. But then this other story might be similar anyway, given the circumstances. And considering the probable staging of those cylinders, and that the victims were apparently killed under direct bondage, the finger of blame would best point to the brutal and deceptive maniacs in charge of Douma at the time.</p><p>But why would they gas even their enemies in such a brazen manner? </p><p>To start, they would face almost no risk of exposure from Western and allied governments (including Suadi Arabia) or the international agencies, NGOs, mass media, and millions of private minds they exert control over. There would be very little risk to such a venture, and some potential gains. </p><p>As they faced a final defeat even in Douma, JaI might pin some hopes on a Hail Mary move, a gamechanger to actually reverse that. The first reports on April 7 had <b>a rising death toll stopping at 180-190 killed</b> in what seemed a massive chlorine-sarin attack. Everyone who mattered initially reported this version, and <b>187 killed by chlorine AND sarin </b>was later <a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/04/douma-chemical-massacre-187-killed.html">"confirmed" by some informed insiders</a> (these death toll disagreements were ignored by the FFM/IIT as if they were obviously some simple confusion). 187 would be easily the second biggest CW death toll in Syria, trailing far behind Ghouta 2013. That's consistent with a serious try at a strong international reaction that might force the Syrian government to stop or be too distracted - or maybe even destroyed by massive airstrikes - to finish their push on Douma. </p><p>Up to 200 dead from sarin is why Donald Trump launched his limited airstrikes - as he had done almost exactly one year earlier - just as OPCW investigators arrived. In the end it didn't bail the "Army of Islam" out of imminent defeat, but it might have seemed worth a try, </p><p>The chemical "attack" and more dead babies certainly put a taint on Syria's final victory in Douma. And on the flip-side, it was a huge PR boost as a consolation prize for the defeated Islamists. Instead of simply being defeated and surrendering, they made a show of defiance and even provocation until the April 7 "chlorine attack," and only then agreed to surrender, as they said, to prevent a repeat and "save lives." </p><p>Furthermore, Jaysh al-Islam members knew they would probably be taking a green bus to Idlib soon. They would have their families and some belongings, maybe allowed one pistol for self-defense but no heavy weapons, and certainly no kidnapped people. Part of the deal was that<b> prisoners would be set free ... unless of course they were killed and buried first. </b>A lucky 200 were released, but <b>an unexplained 3,000 or so were NOT released as promised. </b>These had probably been killed off over time, including at that last chance in April. </p><p>If the scenario above were true, the decision-makers probably would not want the Bakriyeh prisoners released to tell their terrible part of an ultimately embarrassing story - how Zahran Alloush, Jaysh al-Islam and the Saudis ruined the rebellion in Damascus with their unhinged and unchecked brutality. And that might be why they were picked for poisoning and then brought back home one last time for a sick little PR stunt - used to people JaI's "chlorine attack" site.</p><p>This may be some of Jaysh al-Islam's brutality that still goes unchecked - and pointedly so - by "OSINT" hero Eliot Higgins. He leans and drools on the FFM and IIT findings, which he might have helped to shape with some <a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2020/02/on-opcw-bellingcat-collaboration.html">heralded-then-denied "collaboration."</a> He helps the IIT elevate the regime-blaming option with junk science and displays of confidence, with some permissible facts mixed in. They've got this piled atop all the other dismissed possibilities, almost surely including the actual truth. And so they just might assist - perhaps unintentionally - in <b>a coverup of this hideous and reasonably well-illustrated Islamist massacre. </b></p><p>I'll let Higgins have the last word, where he urges his readers - and now mine - "Just remember who was behind spreading and promoting these lies about a horrific war crime." </p></div></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-29495168305687923782023-02-05T22:53:00.034-08:002023-02-18T06:51:40.271-08:00Douma Chemical Massacre 2018 Revisited, part 2<p><b>Adam Larson (aka Caustic Logic)</b></p><p><b>February 5, 2023 </b></p><p><b>last edits Feb. 18</b></p><p>My personal response to <a href="https://www.opcw.org/media-centre/news/2023/01/opcw-releases-third-report-investigation-and-identification-team">the latest report</a> of the OPCW's Investigation and Identification Team (IIT) continues. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/02/douma-chemical-massacre-of-2018.html">Part 1</a> relates my updated position on the ballistic evidence at "Location 2" in Douma, where the bodies of 35 civilians were found after this alleged chlorine attack in 2018. Even after an open-minded review, it's evident that the blamed gas cylinder was <b>most likely</b> placed manually next to pre-existing damage caused by TWO artillery/mortar shell impacts. </p><p>Other options - including the alleged helicopter drop - remain hypothetically possible, but they don't conform easily to the evidence and aren't very reasonable. The IIT finds helicopter drop is the only option "reasonable" enough to even mention, but I have to strongly disagree with that.</p><p>Manual placement would mean there was no aerial chlorine attack, and whatever else might follow has nothing to do with the Syrian military. With no crash to break the valve, any chlorine release, and anything resulting from it, should logically be blamed on the local people who set the thing there. </p><div><span>That itself might a good place to stop, and we do need this story re-broken, re-set, and healed straight. But I also need to run ahead and start on the chemical and toxicological evidence. </span></div><div><span><br /></span></div><div><span>Let's start with a bit related to part 1. In the prior 2019 report of the OPCW's FFM investigation (</span><a href="https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2019/03/s-1731-2019%28e%29.pdf">Official-Series Document (opcw.org)</a>), <span>many samples at Location 2 are shown as contaminated with trinitrotoluene. T</span>hat's commonly abbreviated TNT, the military explosive, like mortar shells are packed with. <span>It was on "</span>Concrete debris from the crater-edge in front of the cylinder nose," but all through the building as well, even in the basement, as well as in the street outside, and at Location 4 across town where there were no evident blast signs. The city was a warzone, and the concentrations of TNT aren't specified anywhere. So that doesn't add much. </div><div><span><br /></span></div><div><span>For the rest of this post, I consider if chlorine gas was released and, if so, how it might connect to the fatalities. And my review had to go 3-part. No surprise. Part 3 will continue with the chemical clues, alongside </span>other evidence going into the question of just <i>how</i> 43 to 187 people were chemically murdered in Douma on April 7, 2018, by whom, and why. <div><br /></div><div>See also as helpful: a dated "masterlist" of Douma posts here: <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/04/alleged-chemical-attack-in-douma-april.html">Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Alleged Chemical Attack in Douma, April 7, 2018</a>. And while I didn't dig for links to some of the great work by others, feel free to read around, and question and consider a wider range of views.<br /><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Chlorine Presence: Probably </span></b></p><p>The IIT report and interpreters including Eliot Higgins spend a lot of time arguing for real molecular chlorine gas at both attack sites, and against all other options. Someone among OPCW "states parties" - probably the Syrian government - had proposed this idea that chlorine bleach was used to fake the chemical signs. As Higgins summed up in <a href="https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1618971896808370176">his Twitter thread</a>:</p><p></p><blockquote><p><i>The location 2 results points to "chlorine gas as being the chlorinating agent present at the scene, and in very high concentrations." Not bleach spread around by Al Qaeda or whatever theory the tankies had. ... The myth of the Al Qaeda Bleach Fairy has been busted.</i></p><p><i>The OPCW IIT also spends a lot of time explaining why alternative scenarios explaining the presence of chlorine byproducts that doesn't involve chlorine gas exposure are pronouncements of nonsense.</i></p></blockquote><p></p><p>I'm not sure if it was mentioned just as a possibility or posed as factual, but it's been made an issue, unfortunately. This gives the OPCW probes and their critics reason to waste a lot of time failing to address the real issues. </p><p>I could be wrong, but this "tankie" has long believed the chlorine in those cylinders was released. First of all, it only makes sense. If the Islamists lugged the things up to visually simulate a chemical gas attack, and they wanted consistent chemical traces to be found later ... they could simply open the valves for the most realistic faking possible. It would be extremely easy and reasonably safe, for someone protected even by a simple gas mask.</p><p>More decisively, the visual evidence always suggested the gas was released. Briefly: </p><p>* Location 2: There's apparent frost coating the cylinder underside, in a video filmed around 10PM. This suggests active gas release, which causes auto-refrigeration - the remaining liquid part becomes cold as it tries to "boil" so that metal touching it frosts over. The frosted area seems to have a visible edge (blue) showing liquid is only at the bottom now, maybe 10% remaining - so most of it (~90%) has emptied by filming. That's about 2.5 hours after an alleged impact around 7:30. The IIT finds this would happen "upon the rapid release of a liquefied gas from the cylinder." But it shouldn't be releasing very rapidly at this point, if their more crucial findings are true and the majority of the contents emptied in the first minute or so, and there's still this much left, it needs to be releasing quite slowly. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpveYMUDWkQ_26Pg-pPdHMST5fmrJRS0Y_FJoNcD9JVrilhXG59dXKzBZUHBkAWJKxQPyVMajIQg4q9t-SgWgeFUbYTYf7lb6gSdI5MbdKLwCH51S2jHMxzvoLLGG835zoEnVc6erodNvmQk8w7dfxZmJzqoO93SeLUN8el2QJCVUxF1GptanTzem4cw/s400/Douma_cylinder%202%20frost%20line%20labels.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="275" data-original-width="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpveYMUDWkQ_26Pg-pPdHMST5fmrJRS0Y_FJoNcD9JVrilhXG59dXKzBZUHBkAWJKxQPyVMajIQg4q9t-SgWgeFUbYTYf7lb6gSdI5MbdKLwCH51S2jHMxzvoLLGG835zoEnVc6erodNvmQk8w7dfxZmJzqoO93SeLUN8el2QJCVUxF1GptanTzem4cw/s16000/Douma_cylinder%202%20frost%20line%20labels.jpg" /></a></div><p>Early on, I developed a theory that the fire set in this room was used to melt the soft metal "fusible plug" from the valve's side, allowing a remote gas release. The fire was set prior to this or any images, and it's now accepted that there's soot on the cylinder beneath that frost (after many including the NYT called it black rust, forming atop yellow paint). The visual record still seems to allow for this plug-melting option, with the valve unseen in the early video (oddly concealed behind crossed metal slats), and later on it looks snapped off, so we can't see if it has an extra hole in it. That's interesting, but it's not proven or necessary. Maybe someone just snapped the valve clean off at the start. </p><p>And hypothetically, being "chill" ... maybe it was snapped off in that impact after the fall from a helicopter. Either way, I'm pretty sure that's a cylinder releasing its compressed gas contents from the top of Location 2. At 2.5 times heavier than air, it would sink down and all through the place.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitaRkbZUOuAZo-zrDvZ4t6ndyEDNa2wy1wxtF135sdSUx4y4cyYwSLx_ASyDylo8rZb--hYRsx9EaQbFPn1NkHYC9qydkEWZ0NLslUINghymb4hrgwxLWYm9dPVGNjJ8nhek-jTCyD_3FcDYag-N9Wmn_aUBuJN-gl4VSI52okmHvx_DT3F5XRJ7Pp-w/s1568/Douma_cylinder%201%20green-brown-green.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1568" data-original-width="1008" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitaRkbZUOuAZo-zrDvZ4t6ndyEDNa2wy1wxtF135sdSUx4y4cyYwSLx_ASyDylo8rZb--hYRsx9EaQbFPn1NkHYC9qydkEWZ0NLslUINghymb4hrgwxLWYm9dPVGNjJ8nhek-jTCyD_3FcDYag-N9Wmn_aUBuJN-gl4VSI52okmHvx_DT3F5XRJ7Pp-w/w258-h400/Douma_cylinder%201%20green-brown-green.jpg" width="258" /></a></div>* Location 4: However this thing got onto that bed, sequential images at right show distinct phases of staining where the bed and debris are stained chlorine green with long-term drip points on a pillow deep brown (it oxidizes to brown over time), then this widens some and it all shifts to brown, then is coated again in a wider green stain. The metal harness still on the cylinder shows massive corrosion and rusting by the end, with signs of splashing with water (chlorine + water = acid that oxidizes metals) - the bed and a board were found soaking wet, and a brown viscous liquid was visible and noted in the room, I would guess being remnants of oxidized chlorine mixed with water and dust, etc.</div><div><p></p><p>Furthermore: the cylinder was still half-full but not emptying when OPCW visited some 2 weeks later. In preceding videos, there was an audible hissing of gas release at some times (allegedly, anyway - it's easy to fake) & no hissing at other times. Why? The supposed hairline crack in the valve can hardly matter - it's almost certain that the valve was being opened and closed by the people managing this scene. The FFM even tested a pair of gloves they found discarded nearby, coated in brown goo ... see below. (For more detail on both sites and the whole issue, <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/10/opcw-whistleblower-chlorine-levels.html">See here.</a>)</p><p>There have been many questions raised about chlorine presence, some of which seem quite impressive. The second OPCW whistleblower, "Alex" - later doxxed as Brendan Whelan - had seemed to claim that chlorinated compounds were found, but just normal background levels of them, suggesting no chlorine was released. E.G. as <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7718627/Sexed-dossier-furore-alleged-poison-gas-attack-Assad.html">Peter Hitchens</a> understood it,: </p><p></p><blockquote><i>"A source has told me that the OPCW report, which was eventually published on July 7, 2018, was stripped of a vital fact at the last minute: the traces of chlorinated material which were found at the site were so small, and so easily available, that they could simply not be said to show that chlorine gas was employed." </i></blockquote><p></p><p>Even worse than stripped, any such findings that existed were <i>replaced </i>in the FFM's public reports with some rather high levels of chlorinated compounds they claim to have found. The 2018 <a href="https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/S_series/2018/en/s-1645-2018_e_.pdf">interim report</a> listed substances found, but indeed it did not give any concentrations. 2019's final report (<a href="https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2019/03/s-1731-2019%28e%29.pdf">Official-Series Document (opcw.org)</a>) gives numbers for some entries, but not others. At Location 2, it says 11,000 ppm combined chlorides were found in "Dry wipe of the cylinder thread." and 1,100 ppm from "Dry wipe from kitchen wall above the oven (level 2)," near several fatalities. 1,100 is not so high, comparitively. Consider too at Location 4, where no one died:</p><p>* A wet board under the cylinder "had the highest content of chlorinated organic compounds of all wood samples taken." 06SDS-L4 is listed with findings of alpha-pinene, bornyl chloride, phenol, and 2,4,6-trichlorophenol. The amounts in ppm aren't given for this sample, but for others:</p><p>* Dry wipe from nozzle, front part next to thread: chloride: 15,000 ppm (IC) - zinc: 4,700 ppm (ICP-MS)</p><p>* Chips of paint from wall behind bed: chloride: 2,600 ppm (IC) - zinc: 150 ppm (ICP-MS)</p><p>* Gloves from stairs (probably used to open and/or close <b>the brass-zinc valve</b>): chloride: 17,000, ppm (IC) - zinc: 1,500 ppm (ICP-MS)</p><p>Is that all fabricated? From Whelan as read, I have reason to suspect that. But I also have even greater reason to accept those findings, or their gist anyway. The visual clues seem hard to explain any other way.</p><p>This could raise doubts about the whistleblower, as it initially did for me. But overall I suppose it's some misunderstanding, like over what "background" means. Open questions: Does it really argue against a gas release? If not, then why bring it up? Could Whelan just be confused about documents he recalled seeing, in what it says or in its significance? What specific levels did he mean? 1-2 ppb (parts-per-billion) was mentioned. Was that of one specific compound, that could be less common in Syria than usual for reasons he didn't realize? Or was it this low for all such compounds? </p><p>Related? CLOC = Chlorine containing Organic Chemicals. The 2019 report says wipes from "the burnt wall in the room located under the cylinder (level 2)" yielded "<b>CLOC (trace)</b>," as did "Dry wipe from kitchen wall above the oven (level 2)." "CLOC (trace)" is also given for 4 samples from Location 4, and one from Location 1. Every case of CLOC is given as (trace). Some specify (LC-HRMS) and some (GC), whatever that means. </p><p><a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2023/02/03/opcw-smoking-gun-backfires/">Aaron Maté's new article</a> focuses on another, rather shady-seeming detail in the IIT report; a newly-mentioned concrete sample provided by the "White Helmets," most likely, that was accepted in violation of the OPCW's long-violated chain-of-custody rules. That's nothing new. Ever since the OPCW FFM's first attempt to investigate on-site in 2014 <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/12/2014-chlorine-attacks-and-opcws-loss-of.html">had opposition fighters attack and arrest them</a>, <b>they've let the opposition collect the evidence for them. </b>They seemed trustworthy enough. Eventually a White Helmets chemical sample unit handled that work. </p><p>In Douma, for the first time since 2013, the OPCW FFM had access to the sites. Yet they apparently used this off-chain sample <i>instead of </i>some concrete sample the FFM collected themselves, but never tested.* From this likely imposter, the IIT added the identification of chlorine marker chemical tetrachlorophenol or TeCP. As Maté puts it "TeCP, it would seem, is the veritable smoking gun needed to establish a chemical attack in Douma as fact." How crucial really is TeCP vs. these other compounds? I don't know. But from this, it looks snuck in. </p></div></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div><div><p style="text-align: left;">* Maté: "a similar sample collected at the same Douma location by the organization’s own inspectors was inexplicably disregarded and not even analyzed." The one they used was from "the room under the crater and the cylinder,” as was the unused "lump of concrete from floor debris in the room under the cylinder (level 2)." But there were several FFM concrete samples from Location 2, with some analyzed and included: one "from the crater-edge in front of the cylinder" and 2 from the street nearby had Dichloroacetic acid, trichloroacetic acid, chloral hydrate, chlorophenol, dichlorophenol, and trichlorophenol, but no TeCP. Tetrachlorophenol <i>is</i> listed for 3 samples from locations 1 and 4, but none from Location 2. </p></div></div></blockquote><div><p>The obvious impression is the OPCW investigators made up the chlorine proof by using tricks like this, probably because there was no gas. But it seems there <i>was</i> plenty of gas. Maybe there was a release at location 2 that was just weaker than the investigators wanted, yielding low traces and lacking especially in TeCP. Or Maybe the OPCW dropped this hint because they want the skeptics to keep doubting this point and thus stay on the wrong track. </p><p>Michael Kobs recently lodged some good-sounding points I can't vouch for, <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaKobs/status/1621366636828573697">summarizing</a> chlorine gas "is a good and easy way to explain all these chlorinated materials but it's not the only way." That too could leave a reader suspecting it WAS staged in another way. But Michael for one agrees with me that the gas probably was released in both locations (I'm not sure if Aaron does). And if that were the fact of the matter, then <b>such doubts could block serious consideration of the evidence from there forward.</b> And this is exactly where we go in this post - forward. So whatever your doubts, unless you know better than I do, you'd do well to defer, or suspend that disbelief, to open your view. We need to carefully <i>consider</i> - not necessarily believe in - chlorine gas being released at both alleged impact sites, in ample amounts to do the things it ACTUALLY DOES, </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Chlorine Levels: Unclear, Possibly High</span></b></p><p>IF the gas was released, the next important question is how much and how quickly. This will decide the concentration of the gas and its effects on anyone contacting it. The IIT found extreme levels were reached within three minutes of the alleged cylinder impact. </p><p><i></i></p><blockquote><i>"The IIT notes that all models indicate that within three minutes of the release of chlorine from the cylinder, all floors within the building would have exceeded a concentration of chlorine which would lead to occupant death, noting that within 60 seconds the concentration of chlorine on the second floor would have led to occupant death."</i> (6.111 )</blockquote><p></p><p>A concentration "which would lead to occupant death" in an unspecified time after an unspecified exposure duration is pretty vague. What actual concentrations did they find likely? Paragraph 6.107 is the only place where "ppm" (parts per million) appears in the report, to explain what happens at some levels and to state that those levels were far exceeded; "Finally, the IIT obtained information indicating that <b>the concentration of chlorine released at Location 2 in Douma on 7 April 2018 was at least 1,000 ppm.</b>" </p><p>I don't know how to calculate the likely levels and challenge that, and I'll take "chill" way for the moment. The rate of release <i>is </i>variable, with the first part releasing quickly as a liquid (due to compression), either dripping or potentially pouring out the unobstructed valve (it boils into heavy gas instantly after emerging). Once the fluid level drops below the escape route - here, a somewhat down-tilted gas cylinder neck - it comes out more slowly as gas. I don't know the rates, but someone does. As noted, it seems ~90% of the liquid is gone by 10PM, and it seems not far below the neck. Let's say 99% of that ~90% poured at once, in the first minute, and just 1% over the next 2.5 hours. I don't think it's that quick, but hey ... maybe. Let's try it out. And the IIT apparently assumed an extreme release like this, concluding that floor 3 was filled to fatal in just 20 seconds.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe0ksfmfqeUsotPFYjCzR4uuZsdPNPWm3KKxfpLIRY5yIUgFunQT2AXsS4VAUysw8tk-Ud55vLsCcwqrS9qwDwXXkPG0TOMTgINDUMv-3SMCcCKCIe95CZj7X7DA0HHHUpLHk-2wnHEb9drF6i7N7sLngnRd0loEcFtCelonIPTHcP3ak0c7oS35YJlw/s633/Douma_scene%20NYTFA%20Model%20labels%20gas%20spread.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="633" data-original-width="609" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe0ksfmfqeUsotPFYjCzR4uuZsdPNPWm3KKxfpLIRY5yIUgFunQT2AXsS4VAUysw8tk-Ud55vLsCcwqrS9qwDwXXkPG0TOMTgINDUMv-3SMCcCKCIe95CZj7X7DA0HHHUpLHk-2wnHEb9drF6i7N7sLngnRd0loEcFtCelonIPTHcP3ak0c7oS35YJlw/w385-h400/Douma_scene%20NYTFA%20Model%20labels%20gas%20spread.jpg" width="385" /></a></div>From a 120-liter cylinder of compressed gas would come a certain volume of expanded gas I don't know. A good bit. Most of it would fill only part of floor 3 and the stairwell there and on floors 2 and 1, some to the sides depending on details, an unclear space just outside the entrance, plus some back in and down to the basement. That's not such a huge space. If it emptied all at once - which we're trying out - I would expect extreme levels in the stairwell. AFAIK 1,000 ppm is possible in this core, if not in other areas or at any slower rate of release. Maybe it would just be 2-300 ppm or even less, but we're trying out the higher level.<div><p></p><p>The report points out how extreme 1,000 ppm would be: "in concentrations over 400 ppm, fatality occurs within minutes." Is even that maybe instant enough to preclude escape to fresh air? As I read, "The <b>lowest</b> lethal concentration for a <b>30-minute exposure</b> has been estimated as 430 ppm." (<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK537213/#:~:text=Toxicity%20to%20chlorine%20gas%20depends%20on%20the%20dose,strong%20odor%2C%20chlorine%20gas%20can%20be%20detected%20easily.">Chlorine Gas Toxicity - StatPearls - NCBI Bookshelf (nih.gov)</a>) As explained below, the IIT version calls for nearly instant death or immobilization, so 430 ppm could hardly explain this. But they cited well over twice that level, and they could have been more to the point. Their own source (<a href="https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/toxprofiles/tp172.pdf">https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/toxprofiles/tp172.pdf</a>) cites lots of deaths hours to months later, but it says <b>"immediate death</b> follows inhalation of a concentration of 1,000 ppm." (As explained below, "immediate" probably has to mean suffocation speed.) </p><p>The IIT "obtained information indicating that" this level was achieved. They don't mention it coming from their modeling, so ... was it the REPORTS that people died there instantly that "indicated" the concentration must have been 1,000 ppm or higher? That sounds pretty "reasonable," doesn't it? I wouldn't be surprised. <b>Note 2/18: </b>To clarify, this would be circular reasoning: they assume people died swiftly from chlorine, which would "indicate" 1,000 ppm or higher. This would be just a corollary of their unfounded assumption, but they act like it's separate "information" in support of that assumption. The final report may have skipped the 1,000 ppm citation because, in earlier drafts, its appearance in the text made this circular reasoning too evident.<b> (end note)</b></p><p>Still, it's a good moment to consider the possibility, at least for good measure. But first, let's consider <b>what chlorine does</b> and <i>then</i> come back to what a whole lot of it <i>might</i> do, and how well that explains the evidence. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">HOW Chlorine kills and what it DOESN'T usually do</span></b></p><p>Higgins continued: "You may wonder why I'm at pains to point this out, but some of the loudest voices in Douma denialism claim the victims were killed elsewhere and placed at the site, rather than killed by chlorine gas exposure at the site. The OPCW IIT makes clear this is a fabrication."</p><p>They do suggest and state at different points that this chlorine caused the victims' deaths, but they were not able to "make it clear." <b>Fatally high chlorine levels would</b><b> <i>not</i> prove those people died there, from that. In fact, it's quite doubtful that they did. All this consideration of chlorine presence, release time and levels might be irrelevant to the true crime.</b></p><p>In most circumstances, chlorine is not terribly good at killing people. It's classed as a pulmonary irritant, with one relevant effect; it generates Hydrochloric and Hypochlorous Acid on contact with water, and this acid damages moist, sensitive tissues like the eyes and airways.<b> It burns, and all else it does is secondary to that. </b></p><p>In most cases airway damage is not severe, but it limits breathing from the start and causes mucous production that, over time, leads to pulmonary edema or fluid-filled lungs. These fluids often appear as oral foam as the victims struggles to breathe through it. Failure in that is the usual cause of death following chlorine exposure. This edema usually develops as a delayed response, hours after the victim has escaped the gas, but this has been hotly debated. As I've read, pulmonary edema "can be" delayed for hours and usually is. But I'm not sure it's always is that delayed. I've seen some indications it can happen after around 30 minutes of continuous exposure, and even sooner seems hypothetically possible. </p><p>Never mind degrees of edema foam that can form after debatable times. Why would the Douma victims LAY THERE foaming until dead? As the OPCW FFM's first consulted toxicologists correctly explained (per <a href="https://wikileaks.org/opcw-douma/#OPCW-DOUMA%20-%20Release%20Part%204">a record of the visit</a>) "It should be expected that on encountering the irritant gas, victims would instinctively have retreated and exited the building." These unnamed but eminent experts, reportedly visited in Germany, thought<b> "it was highly unlikely that victims would have gathered in piles at the centre of the respective apartments at such a short distance from an escape." </b></p><p>Indeed, in countless documented real-world incidents, fatal chlorine exposure is avoided almost 100% of the time as people tend to <b>leave the concentrated gas swiftly</b>, using their feet and their <b>completely unimpaired consciousness. (add 2/18: see some cases I considered in <a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/02/does-chlorine-make-you-pass-out.html ">this 2017 blog post</a>) </b>The "German toxicologists" (as I'll call them) offered a logical, reality-based assessment <a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/12/douma-toxicology-erasing-and-replacing.html">the FFM leadership apparently did not want</a>. Like the engineering study, all record of this visit was memory-holed until it was leaked. Any toxicology work the FFM tried in the first months was re-done later, securing a more vague and flexible assessment. </p><p>Eliot Higgins knows this is at issue, and makes a point of pretending the issue never mattered: "The war crime deniers tried to focus on an early FFM meeting about the toxicity of chlorine, which they used to dismiss claims of chlorine gas use in the attack. The IIT brought on even more specialists, who established the symptoms did in fact match with high levels of exposure." The later experts might have provided nothing but nonsense, but "even more" is posed as winning the day. </p><p>The IIT sought to explain why the victims were found all over the 1st and 2nd floors, and on the stairs between and even above, when they had been in the basement to start with. </p><p></p><blockquote><i>The IIT assess that it is likely that the recommended protocol during chemical attacks “to head to higher ground” is why the majority of the fatalities are observed on the first and second floors and on the stairs.</i> (6.104 )</blockquote><p></p><p>They were told to get above the gas, but this doesn't explain it. </p><p>It does makes initial sense for people to go upstairs after smelling the gas in the basement. Refer to the 3D model above and the image below, showing how to go upstairs requires first stepping almost out in the street, where the best chance at fresh air could be found, But IF the gas had got to the basement, it was via this area, filled with gas the breeze doidn't disperse. Encountering it there too, the victims might think the gas came from somewhere outside, and then seek higher ground inside. </p><p>That still makes complete sense, <b>up to where most of them dispersed into the ground floor</b>, just a few steps "higher" than the outside, and to where <b>they encountered even more dense chlorine inside, and more yet the higher they went. Then - most logically - they would decide it came from inside and the protocol isn't THAT binding, so they would leave the site to save their own lives. </b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp0-Zrl9nxWuFHxn-AAHbFgQvM_Bdu8Xe0dsKW9xu6FU1KIUpYkBr59lxEt8gGuN8blkcWEzm-MC4_nLDtIEC0Mxz1daawOSh5nMoX58nfTuLSP_YGKntG6mOOm4VCpl9d3N4So0LPbtQ7n0fMFswZEBdL9PQ7LqDpXhRGOH5be9Dmo1-EwTrwgF13Qg/s1238/Douma_Escaping_Fresh_Air.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="878" data-original-width="1238" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp0-Zrl9nxWuFHxn-AAHbFgQvM_Bdu8Xe0dsKW9xu6FU1KIUpYkBr59lxEt8gGuN8blkcWEzm-MC4_nLDtIEC0Mxz1daawOSh5nMoX58nfTuLSP_YGKntG6mOOm4VCpl9d3N4So0LPbtQ7n0fMFswZEBdL9PQ7LqDpXhRGOH5be9Dmo1-EwTrwgF13Qg/w640-h454/Douma_Escaping_Fresh_Air.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p>That protocol is often cited to counter the German toxicologists, who found it unlikely that the victims would run upstairs "counter to the direction of dissemination of the toxic gas," or deeper into the cloud of it. We do have a reason that they might. But as the toxicologists also said, and as the FFM/IIT can hardly explain, "It should be expected that on encountering the irritant gas," even for a second time, "victims <b><u>would instinctively have</u></b> retreated and exited the building." No one disputes they would WANT TO turn around and escape the gas - better late than never. But these experts expected the victims WOULD have exited according to that instinct.<b> They did not expect some kind of immobility to set in and prevent it. </b></p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJz21V-pwKR6Ssdd2f7Z-Pq2z3x8MhJ83s2_zS_exOZDPhwqNMW8ppVxg05ranQw1oH4HE4X9I0exEENtVU-x6tAgHH3fN9ENK4BZisOkdrrDfVa40An77UJHwAH7wdpkpCAnaTXvxe8HFkAd2542yavTGatnjUtjvPrtOH5FMd_2dL-txJ4-1qF1Tkw/s1133/Screenshot%20(4253).png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="613" data-original-width="1133" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJz21V-pwKR6Ssdd2f7Z-Pq2z3x8MhJ83s2_zS_exOZDPhwqNMW8ppVxg05ranQw1oH4HE4X9I0exEENtVU-x6tAgHH3fN9ENK4BZisOkdrrDfVa40An77UJHwAH7wdpkpCAnaTXvxe8HFkAd2542yavTGatnjUtjvPrtOH5FMd_2dL-txJ4-1qF1Tkw/w400-h216/Screenshot%20(4253).png" width="400" /></a></div>An example from my city, Spokane, in 2015: eight workers at a recycling plant were hospitalized and Edward Dumaw, a forklift operator, died after a mid-size chlorine leak. A partly-filled half-ton tank of compressed gas was crushed, or was punctured as it was loaded in the crusher, most likely by or very near Dumaw's forklift - so probably just a meter or so from his face. It was outdoors, but a lot was released (I didn't yet find exact details). Soon after the incident, paramedics were seen taking one man to an ambulance by stretcher. That's probably Mr. Dumaw, up on his side, holding the railing and his oxygen mask (1:30 in this video: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adclsCEUBd8">EPA finds source of tank that triggered massive chlorine gas leak - YouTube</a> ). <p></p><p>It seems like he stayed conscious, and so did everyone else. Another man wears a breathing mask but is walking fine. (Both men are shirtless following decontamination that was probably overdone for a simple irritant). Even Mr. Dumaw could probably walk if needed, but he was badly injured and had spent some unclear minutes with inadequate oxygen, and was probably fatigued. Hopes were high that he would soon recover, though he was put on ventilation at the hospital. But then even that wasn't enough; he slipped into a coma before complications from his injuries finally killed Mr. Dumaw a few days later. </p><p><a href="https://www.kxly.com/news/local-news/spokane/eight-injured-in-industrial-park-chlorine-gas-leak/article_d905a3aa-b3cf-528b-893e-ec4234b7bed7.html">One report</a> quoted Spokane Assistant Fire Chief Brian Schaeffer as saying “The effects of exposure to the chemical plume ranged from minor respiratory issues like coughing to severe respiratory issues.” There's no mention of anyone dying suddenly, blacking out, or being otherwise immobilized. It's something that's pretty well absent from the other incidents I've studied as well. </p><p>Multi-death incidents like in Huaian, China or Graniteville, South Carolina, or most of those WWI battles like at Ypres, will see victims dropping and dying at different distances from the release. These involve huge area-wide gas release that can only be escaped by a long hike. Generally they do hike, but less effectively over time, and some drop dead before they get out of the plume. The worst off are those severely injured by a concentrated exposure, who may only a stumble a short distance before suffocation takes them. <b>Anyone who drops instantly and dies in place is a rare fluke that hardly gets mentioned.</b></p><p>But in Douma, as the German toxicologists pointed out, fresh air would have been available somewhere outside. That's not so far to hike, even after that dash upstairs, but we hear people just laid down and died instead. That's what we call "unexplained."</p><p>So this "protocol" thing cannot, in itself, be the answer. We need sudden, widespread immobilization that has never been a known effect of chlorine. This is just why experts early on suggested a nerve agent like sarin was involved. British media spook Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, making the same case for sarin most other observes initially made: <b>"If it was chlorine, they could have escaped. But they died after just taking a few steps.</b>" (see <a href="https://www.medialens.org/2018/no-nerve-agents-found-the-opcw-interim-report-on-douma/">Media Lens article with other examples</a> or <a href="https://syriapropagandamedia.org/working-papers/briefing-note-the-alleged-chemical-attack-in-douma-on-7-april-2018-and-other-alleged-chlorine-attacks-in-syria-since-2014">this WGSPM briefing note</a>). That's about what the Germans had said. </p><p>Unnamed U.S. official even said they had biomedical samples proving that a sarin-like nerve agent was used. But then sarin did not turn up in chemical tests, and sudden, widespread chlorine immobilization started trying to become a new "fact." That's why to the FFM in 2019, the "inhalational irritant <b>or</b> toxic substance" responsible was also "a rapidly incapacitating <b>or</b> a highly toxic substance." Chlorine fit both bills ... because adding "or" makes all these words interchangeable? Furthermore,<b> "The victims do not appear to have been in the midst of attempting self-extrication or respiratory protection when they collapsed, indicating a very rapid or instant onset. </b>This type of rapid collapse is indicative of an agent capable of quickly killing or immobilising." Indeed, the victims were not escaping and don't even seem to have been covering their faces - that's how instant it seemed. Someone probably told the FFM this indicated sarin, etc. and they included it anyway - with some "or" work - as supportive of chlorine.</p><p>The IIT now says it was chlorine, the pulmonary irritant, and the victim could take all the steps TOWARDS the gas they wanted - because of that "higher ground" advice - but they could not turn around and escape it because ... over 1,000 ppm was "indicated." Hamish would now agree, of course. Earlier, the agent was "rapidly incapacitating" but chlorine is not, and now they avoid such specifically misleading words. "Unconsciousness" appears once, observed at people brought to medical point 1 (6.100). Some from other shelters reportedly "collapsed" on their way to point 1 (6.103). No form of "immobilized," "incapacitated," or anything similar appears, as they had in the 2019 FFM report. Now, the "rapid release" just caused a "rapid onset of symptoms" that aren't specified, and a "rapid and high fatality rate" with few details to explain just HOW they died and WHY "escape was no longer possible" during the victims' final moments. For lack of better organizing, I'll dwell on this some more below.</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Is Syrian Chlorine Different?</span></b></p><p>Well before Douma, since 2014, it's been alleged that <b>victims of chlorine attacks in Syria DO routinely pass out upon breathing the gas</b>, instantly or within a few moments, and then just lay there to die instead of escaping. As I argued with <a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/02/does-chlorine-make-you-pass-out.html ">this 2017 article</a> (already linked above), these allegations are proven false partly by this built-in scientific illiteracy. Or maybe they're proven fiction by the implausible scientific plot twist; activists also dropped frequent hints of a mystery devices and chemical added to the chlorine, like some yellow powder in a separate container, for example. And somehow, unusual symptoms were often reported, including a swift blacking out similar to what sarin causes. </p><p>Opposition sources would later report several dual chlorine-sarin attacks. In fact the Douma attack was initially reported this way, with far more deaths and unique signs like miosis (constricted pupils). Loss of consciousness was reported in general and described by supposed survivors, and there were even purported biomedical samples showing a nerve agent. </p><p>But the OPCW's investigations find a sarin-chlorine attack implausible, correctly noting that chlorine would tend to neutralize the sarin. And at Douma they found no sign of sarin ever being present, in biomedical or environmental samples, and no sign of any other mystery chemical - just chlorine. (Conversely, in Saraqib 2 months earlier, they found sarin traces along with the chlorine signs, but couldn't accept them in the same attack - as was alleged. So they deemed the sarin a random coincidence from some other, unknown use as they blamed Syria for the chlorine part!)</p><p>Even with the added blackout feature, Syria chlorine attacks historically had <b>death tolls usually between zero and one.</b> Occasionally 2 or even 3 people would allegedly lay there and die under a single chlorine bomb. A record of 7 deaths happened once (<a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/01/fall-2014-east-ghouta-cw-attacks.html">some prisoners of Jaysh al-Islam</a> in Adra that actually appear murdered with chest punctures). Two 6-member families who passed out in their homes and died were tied for 2nd place (<a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/04/what-killed-talebs.html">Taleb 2015</a> with additional overdose signs and murderous medical malpractice, <a href="http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/02/syria-chlorine-allegations-baytounji.html">"Baytounji" 2016</a> with additional "raccoon eyes" from recent unexplained skull fractures, and never mind "Baytounji" - probably not their name or a clue they were Christians after all). </p><p>Those attacks with 6-7 killed were the deadliest chlorine incidents until Douma, with <b>nearly 200 deaths initially reported, but with sarin also involved</b>, and finally "just" 43 were reportedly<b> </b>killed, grudgingly, by chlorine alone. And it's accepted without batting an eyelash. </p><p>The OPCW has taken down these prior claims and issued reports including them. They should be able to cite that long record to say the Douma victims simply lost consciousness from the chlorine, like so many others have, and therefore never made it out. But even the OPCW's investigations can't bring themselves to confirm this long-running allegation. Before, they had suggested "immobilization" must have been involved, but they didn't explain why that might be so. </p><p>Now they avoid even this, but the story does still require it. The only way to explain those bodies - aside from body planting - is they ran up into the gas, and were then swiftly incapacitated so they could not leave. And <b>chlorine can immobilize. </b>Let's consider HOW and whether the mechanisms are evident in Douma. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">HOW Chlorine <i>Might</i> Immobilize</span></b></p><p>Again, chlorine just burns. It's not a nerve agent, and despite the name similarity, it's nothing like Chloroform, so people don't just pass out from whiffing it. Again, pulmonary edema is the main cause of death by suffocation. This usually develops as a delayed response, and can hardly explain people dropping so quickly.</p><p>Edema or not, from the first breath of gas, strained breathing can start reducing oxygen levels, eventually leading to cerebral hypoxia, featuring fatigue (especially in the legs), along with a severe headache, and finally, in severe cases, to unconsciousness and death. But this usually takes quite a few minutes or longer to develop. It's not likely to explain the scene in Douma.</p><p>The most severe and sudden exposure could effectively destroy the lungs in one breath, causing death at suffocation speed thereafter. Over 1,000 ppm sound likely to do that; for every 1,000 molecules of breathed air, at least one is chlorine. That's a lot of acid in the lungs for each breath - maybe enough to melt half the alveoli at once and fill the lungs with blood. </p><p>Cases of this or similar might leave the victim fully aware & mobile, running, crawling, etc. until their stored oxygen runs out. Death will take minutes, but <b>the crucial loss of consciousness can occur within 40 seconds of total breath loss, or perhaps even less. </b></p><p>And in some cases, people <i>might</i> also black out or freeze instantly in shock over the extreme injuries. That's not a regular feature of chlorine exposure, but a possibility of unclear likelihood. I think the IIT's reasoning requires about 100% of the victims to succumb to one of these things. </p><p>How about laryngospasm? Sometime the airway locks up in reflexive response the chemical injury, and refuses to unlock, leading to suffocation short of melted lungs. This is an occasional reaction, another suffocation scenario that would take minutes, not seconds. And laryngospasm might block any edema fluid, besides preventing the breath needed to produce foam, which many Douma victims display.</p><p>The visual record also fails to help the IIT's case by failing to show signs of the necessary chemical injuries. to the eyes and airways. </p><p>The suggested chlorine level - more than 1,000ppm - would probably cause massive tissue injury, and the quickest death possible - ultimately from suffocation - would entail <b>serious bleeding in the airways.</b> It would leave people coughing up blood, maybe breathing it into a bright pink foam if they had enough time (which is debatable at such extremes). But this isn't much in evidence at Location 2. A couple of cases show blood content (revised Feb. 8: severely with 2 boys and a girl, probably another girl, and one boy with mild blood), but we mostly see a pale-yellow foam that collapses into a yellow-and-then-brown colored fluid. The FFM and IIT have tried to suggest the brown in this is from blood content, but it's a different color that starts yellow and becomes its own clue - see part 3. </p><p>Eye irritation - as far as I can tell - is always met with increased blood flow and visible redness. <a href="https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/07/irritated-eyes.html">Here</a> I established it as a regular feature of real chlorine exposure, lacking from many shown victims (mainly children shown recovering), probably because they weren't real victims. Red eyes are excluded from some symptom lists, likely because it's such a non-specific sign caused by many things, but it appears on many others. I could not quite find a source to clarify if there are any exceptions that might apply in Douma or if that's literally impossible. But <b>not a single case of visibly red eyes appears. </b></p><p>"Corneal opacification" is cited by the FFM and IIT as suggesting chlorine damage, seemingly uninterested in the lack of redness. Adding here, I later learned that opacification <i>does</i> happen right away, not just as later scarring (as the above link says). But I'm 98% sure it should come on top of redness, and the white-on-white we see simply means they died <b>following little or no corrosive damage to their eyes</b>, and then developed post-mortem corneal clouding like every corpse does. </p><p>Ok, stretching the "chill" and open-mindedness, let's consider maybe ... the eyes somehow burn without redness after all, their lungs were massively destroyed but with little to no blood in the foam, the foam shows they managed to breathe for some time, so death wasn't exactly "instant." but they were not much able to move their bodies to escape the gas. That probably needs a widespread shock-paralysis or mysterious sudden black-out that is not a regular effect, but almost has to apply in every case. </p><p>All that combined must be <i>possible, </i>like almost anything hypothetically is. But it's not at all expected or obvious like it's presented. Some unexplained anomalies would be involved, but the IIT just shrugs and pretends there's nothing further to explain, as if there could be no better-fitting explanation they could have considered. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Escape Was "Impossible"?</span></b></p><p>Assuming perhaps the quickest release possible, the IIT concluded that within 60 seconds, the gas concentration on floor 2 would lead to "occupant death" - at some point after some exposure - and suggests it would be instant enough to preclude escape. This is worth dwelling on for a moment.</p><p></p><blockquote><p><i>6.112 ...the dispersion was so rapid that it obstructed the only possible escape route from the apartments via the stairwell. In addition, the IIT notes that approximately 20 seconds after the release of chlorine, escape from the apartments on the third floor was almost certainly no longer possible and after 60 seconds, escape from the apartments on the second floor was almost certainly no longer possible either. </i></p><p><i>The specialists’ assessment that all exit routes on the third and second floor were no longer accessible without exposure to a high and lethal volume of chlorine gas are consistent with the rapid onset of symptoms which led to the fatalities recorded on the stairs and landings, as reported by witnesses and observed in videos and pictures from the incident. </i></p></blockquote><p></p><p>Some areas were inaccessible "without" fatal gas exposure, but exposure is a constant in this scenario and lingering can't help that. And they say after 60 seconds escape from floor 2 was "not possible," period. How so? Reality requires an exact mechanism. They don't seem to know it or care, but they assume that pretty suddenly, the people just couldn't move. </p><p>Now remember that <b>the victims needed to escape these upstairs apartments only because they had first run INTO those apartments,</b> as the IIT reasons, in search higher ground. When "protocol" demands, people are able to climb stairs and enter<i> </i>some apartment, some via a smashed-in doors. Some managed to flee into back rooms on floor 1, as others could climb to floor 2 or even 2.5, to enter apartments here. Alleged survivor Nasr Hanan say he followed his brother to floor 2, watched him wash his face at the sink and the collapse, before Nasr decided to escape alone, and did it just fine. </p><p>Maybe the IIT rejected his account or never heard it. But full mobility could be assumed up to the victims being in the apartments upstairs, where <b>the entrance and the exit is the same doorway, just passed in opposite ways. If the exit is "obstructed," then so is the entrance. </b>By the same reasoning, within 60 seconds people would be "obstructed" from <i>entering</i> those rooms on floor 2. They could not reach this higher ground "without exposure to a high and lethal volume of chlorine gas." <b>ENTRANCE INTO these apartments would be not just unlikely but "impossible." </b>But then how DID their bodies wind up there, somewhat in piles?</p><p>To be fair, there is the time difference between entrance and exit. Maybe they could just barely run into the cloud, and then a ways further before the O2 shortage hit them. And say the gas was still building up swiftly, growing a bit worse every moment, and was of course added to what they had already breathed. There is that to make the entrance and exit different thing. Is it enough to explain how they all could get in but not back out before that<b> previously unknown mass immobilization</b> kicked in? Of course I don't think so. </p><p>The FFM noted "The victims do not appear to have been in the midst of attempting self-extrication or respiratory protection when they collapsed, indicating a very rapid or instant onset." It came on so quick they couldn't even get their faces covered, after running up there also without covering their faces, and they never had time to escape. The IIT is less specific, but decided the victims could enter these rooms alive, but then suddenly they cannot even start to reverse that terrible move and escape the corrosive gas. That's a convenient decision, if not a well-founded one.</p><p>Taking this as a metaphor for the investigation seems clever. the FFM and IIT are able to run up the stairs of this Jihadist fiction, passing up escapes to clear thinking and breaking doors of logic to get their credibility lodged deep in some vacant apartment with deception levels well above 1,000 ppm. Then, of course, they cannot turn around and escape, at least not without exposure to levels of well-earned distrust that could render the OPCW useless as a tool of empire. For those pulling the strings, it might be <i>escaping </i>that poisoned environment that proves fatal. </p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">In review</span></b></p><p>The IIT report alleges delayed-then-sudden paralysis or unconsciousness, induced by acid injuries of an extreme nature, but with oddly limited visual signs, in 35 cases, when we should expect about zero. They reason this was due to an optimally swift release from the dropped chlorine cylinder - the one with a velocity too low to penetrate the ceiling, after it coincidentally impacted where a mortar shell once did, but still such a velocity at impact that it blew the ceiling open just like another mortar shell would do. </p><p>I suppose all of that, even combined, is extremely unlikely but hypothetically possible, in the sense that just about anything is. But it was posed exclusively as "reasonable." It was already assumed as factual by many, and is now read as extra-factual by the same. But that just doesn't cut it for me, and it shouldn't cut it for anyone else. </p><p>Just like the chlorine cylinder fails to match the building damage, the gas it contained - and probably did release - fails to realistically explain the observed fatalities. I always suspected the bodies were planted here just like the cylinder was. And I still suspect that whatever killed them didn't do it here, or under circumstances we can easily know. But there is the evidence to guide a search into those circumstances, which will continue fairly soon with part 3.</p></div></div>Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.com10