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Warning: This site contains images and graphic descriptions of extreme violence and/or its effects. It's not as bad as it could be, but is meant to be shocking. Readers should be 18+ or a mature 17 or so. There is also some foul language occasionally, and potential for general upsetting of comforting conventional wisdom. Please view with discretion.
Showing posts with label Ghouta Massacre. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ghouta Massacre. Show all posts

Friday, December 13, 2024

"Assad's Top Crimes" in Review...

...now that the likely perpetrators are suddenly in charge of all Syria's people.

December 13, 2024

(rough, incomplete)

last updates 12/15

Thoughts on the Fall of the Syrian Arab Republic

As all readers are probably aware, in recent days the longtime government of the Syrian Arab Republic has rather suddenly collapsed, allowing Idlib Islamists to somehow take every major city up to and including Damascus. Genocidal terrorists linked to Al Qaeda - supposedly reformed - now run the country. The axis of resistance to Israel has been broken, leaving Lebanon isolated as Palestine is being erased with the Gaza genocide and incoming president Trump's implied promise to let Israel annex the West Bank, besides Gaza. (He did take the money - Haaretz.com) To boot, many Palestine supporters are now distracted with celebrations and/or joining with Israel again to hate on Assad and cheer the fall of one of the staunchest state supporters of their cause.

I'm not at all happy with these developments. From 2012 to 2018 I made some quite serious (volunteer and self-directed) study of events in Syria. As I'll explain below, this work left me what many call an "Assadist." I was highly sympathetic with the government of Bashar al-Assad as it came under a foreign-backed dirty war using terrorist proxies staging false-flag massacres. The government didn't fall then, but Syria was severely injured, losing hundreds of thousands of people, and was left more carved-up than ever before; Idlib province was occupied by Al-Qaeda offshoot Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham (fka Jabhat al-Nusra) and run under strict sharia law - Syria's oil and wheat fields were occupied by the United States, on the notion that giving local Kurds autonomy from Syria while stealing Syria's oil and wheat was the only way to "stop ISIS" - the US under Trump illegally recognized Syria's illegal occupation of Syria's Golan Heights; it was Israel's sovereign territory according to the then-and-now boss of the world. 

Finally, the US congress imposed crippling economic sanctions on Syria in the name of "protecting civilians" there by preventing the country from rebuilding until the Assad government was deposed. Once Al Qaeda is in charge, ok, you can rebuild and have your lives back. Well, not quite the same lives, but ...

It was all fine to most people, considering how insanely evil the Assad regime was, butchering whole families, gassing villages and more in a desperate bid to crush or kill all the country's Sunni Muslim majority, starting with the most innocent. But this preposterous alleged plan would achieve nothing but sowing seeds of revenge, fueling the Sunni extremist insurgency. And as far as I can tell, opposition militants seem to have provided their own fuel here, in probably every single atrocious instance. 

Consider an incident from the Douma-Harasta area (unclear exactly) in August 2012 (All details here: https://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Douma_Hostage_Massacre) A Musab bin Omar Battalion, part of a Capitol Shield Brigade (app. Muslim Brotherhood connected, allied with Liwa/Jaish al-Islam at least) had 16 men captured after an "attack on one of the centers of Shabiha and the gangs of Assad" and perhaps also a police station. Here are the notorious killers waiting an unspecified justice, giving their names and ranks on prompt. 


They won't be allowed to signal to their families or reveal their location or any secrets they've witnessed, but I can almost see #5 Hassan Ismail saying with his pose "look at this distinctive Coca-Cola shirt they gave me. Remember it." These are all supposedly military men, captured on-base and presumably in uniform. If so, it's unclear why someone went to hassle of re-dressing them all in these distinctive civilian clothes. Seriously, why? 

Well, some grisly activist videos (since deleted) posted soon thereafter showed - by clothing and other matches - at least 6 of these same men (those w/red Xs above), dead with throats cut, on video as 16 (revised to just 12) local civilians kidnapped - in their civilian clothes there - and killed BY "Assad's forces." Assad's gangs would have to pay for this crime, would hopefully be captured alive, killed and rebranded like this, revenged again, and so on. 

I start with this example because it's basically undeniable. The story was given credence even in a few mainstream media outlets (Tracey Shelton in Salon), and cannot really be challenged except with nonsense like this "trial by word salad." Credit for the original find on this story goes to German OSINT sleuth "Ursula Behr" who caught it right off in 2012, and had Syrian media pick it up from her. More an "Assadist" than I could ever be, she would later travel to Syria as she was dying of cancer, had her paintings put on display, and then passed away. She was buried in Syria at her request, and now she's still there even after Assad has left.

They actually did this kind of shit, and I think it was done widely all during the Dirty War. In fact, it can be essentially proven like this in a great many cases. The vilest acts may have all been done not by the government (actually elected, FWIW) that had to live in and govern Syria, but in a false-flag manner by the foreign-backed, takfiri terrorists; they were always the agents of chaos, working on this multinational program to break down, carve up, and consume Syria, as seems to be happening now. 

This seems like a rather evil but likely a winning strategy, if allowed to play out very long. The government had to give up on Douma by October, 2012; it was "liberated" like all of Syria now is, with Liwa al-Islam left in general control. That "liberation" and this particular Capitol Shield Brigade ended long ago after fighting half the world tried to complicate. But as far as I know, some of these same guys kept rolling with different groups to this day, and now help govern all of Syria and all of its people.  

I'll try to catch up some on the details of the fall, what transpired, how things evolve from here, and on emerging "proofs" of "Al-Assad's brutal rule" that are now being "discovered." (A Closer Look On Syria has been keeping some track, so I'll be starting there) I'm still open to the idea some of it might even be true, but I'll have to compare to the reality-based picture I have so far, which the reader can start to form from reading or just skimming this post.

There's been widespread celebration of the "new Syria" because, compared to the well-known crimes of the Assad regime, especially since the rebellion began in the "Arab Spring" of 2011, almost anything is seen as better. An endless river of accusation was almost universally accepted by hostile, Western governments, by other openly hostile forces, and even by ostensibly neutral and trustworthy agencies like human rights groups and bodies of the United Nations, the mass media and the general public (with some leading and some just led). Nonetheless, the best evidence suggests these agencies, the public and everyone got the story wrong, sometimes on purpose.

Here I'll try for a brief overview of several classes of alleged crimes of the "Assad regime":

* shooting protesters

* torturing and killing kids

* sectarian massacres

* bombardment massacres

* chemical attacks

* prisoner abuse and extermination

Each section is illustrated with select details from select cases, almost off the top of my head but with some needed review. I give a few links to scattered work, mainly at this blog. (at the links are piles of text often summarizing other piles), with hundreds of individual, primary citations I'm not going to recreate here. I'm not just "citing myself" with these links, just sticking to the stuff I can vouch for and locate easily. 

The cited work was done collaborating with others who bring their own expertise and knowledge in open-source research. We consider all available evidence, emphasizing the best primary source evidence (the visual record, the accounts of witnesses, especially ones conforming with and not contradictions the visual record, direct documentation of related government orders, etc.) not just to poke holes in the official narrative, but to discover, as possible, what actually did happen, we map out events in time and space, parse available reports and read between the lines for what isn't said, what doesn't make sense, etc. with often astonishing results, even as they're often incomplete, over-filled and under-edited. 

There are a lot of the great work by others out there (a few cited here), but the quality of the core information is mixed, and I didn't want to go digging. And I never personally absorbed all the brilliance at ACLOS and in comments here, and by now I've grown rusty on much of what I did. So this won't be adequate, but maybe close enough to be of some help. Some adds and improvements are likely.

why bother?

Why bother now that there's no sitting "Assad regime" to defend, or to cut me an imaginary paycheck, just a new government to raise the alarm about? I guess it's for the latter reason. We should probably be aware if evil and lies have won on such a grand scale in Syria, even if the new government doesn't start exterminating all the Alawites or mass-executing all loyalists of the deposed regime. Is it possible HTS have changed and wind up being cool, allowing open elections and so on? Even sticking up for the Palestinians? If there's a next time, a next country, maybe this kind of outcome should be avoided? Is there any way of fighting this, turning back the new status quo, maybe with mass civil disobedience by the betrayed Syrian people that ISN'T met with mass head-chopping, to topple this terrorist regime ASAP? 

I don't know. What do we do with this information now? It's just what I have and where we are. And still, it seems to me, too few people know these stories.

So FWIW, here's a review of what - as far as I can tell - happened last time, what all this unfinished business truly was and remains. I present a very dark vision of events no one needs to accept in full, but this is how I see what Syrian officials described in a top-secret document as "circumstances we are better off without." This is the hell Syrians won't want to go through again. This may be why some people there might agree to a quick surrender, as may have just happened, when faced with a new and maybe final round of the Dirty War.

More reading (Optional) in some external articles, here at Monitor on Massacre Marketing (cited as "Monitor" below), at the wiki I helped start A Closer Look On Syria (ACLOS) - and in some work with the Working Group on Syria, Propaganda, and Media (WGSPM) alongside Dr. Piers Robinson and other professional-level academic types (because I am one?), besides co-founding a now-defunct Citizen's Investigation Into War Crimes in Libya (and Syria, Ukraine, and Beyond) (CIWCL-SUB) with Petri Krohn, and some valuable informal collaborations, especially with Michael Kobs. Relevant posts at this blog: Syria Masterlist, last updated 2017:  I may update this, but other than quite a bit on the 2018 Douma chemical attack, I didn't add very much, so that plus Douma masterlist (and, since that's not complete either, tagged posts) could keep you reading almost forever. 

More than reading, (which is often a chore, sorry), this stuff should be saved in several places by people who care. I do and oversee brilliant work that's worth preserving, but I sometimes lose it and, in the current climate, it could even be made illegal or otherwise made to vanish. So things you can do with the info presented and linked below: read, skim, copy, paste, save, read other stuff & compare, double-check, improve, re-publish, add your own thoughts and your own magic.

Running Under it All: the "Assad Files"

I'll start with the "Assad Files" - some million pages of top-secret government documents seized by militants all across Syria. Not all of it is relevant, but the files are said by their curators to provide the best case for war crimes since Nuremberg. I had a pretty obsessive look at all the actual documents that were publicized - presumably selected as good examples - besides what people were saying about them. A good lot of rambling consideration, with links to original sources and quite a few interesting direct quotes: Assad Files masterlist - tagged posts.  

My strong impression is that these files are genuine and provide an accurate view of government response to a crisis gripping their country. However, as far as I've seen, the Assad Files reveal no clearly criminal orders, despite the public branding, and certainly nothing close support for the kind of atrocities widely alleged. A 2019 post considers a large sample of files (3,470 relevant pages) examined by SJAC ("Syrian Justice and Accountability Center") that apparently revealed no seriously criminal orders, and none has emerged anywhere else I've seen. This actually suggests, but far from proves, that no such orders were ever issued by Syrian authorities, probably because all of the most heinous crimes of the Dirty War were committed by the foreign-backed opposition militants.

As such, it will be interesting to compare these files with the documents likely to be "discovered" by the new government all across Syria and provided as proof of all the alleged crimes the real "Assad Files" somehow never mentioned. 

I penned one external article at 21st Century Wire: "Revolution Unraveled: ‘Assad Files’ Now an Achilles’ Heel for War Crimes Narrative" to explain how the "linchpin" of the case against Assad lodged by the CIJA ("Committee for International Justice and Accountability") was a seized document outlining a new "Crisis Management Cell" in August, 2011. The purpose of this was said to be targetting “protest organizers” and “those who tarnish the image of Syria in foreign media” for arrest, apparently just on those grounds, with no mention of what they planned to do about all the armed militants. However, a full copy of the document was shown to El Pais, and it revealed the real targets were actually those “wanted for the crimes of vandalism, killing, and assault on citizens and their properties and the government institutions,” as happened on a grand scale in Hama just a few days earlier. 

Among those violent people, they wanted “especially those” who were also involved in inciting or funding “demonstrations.” But as another document in the El País video shows, they were concerned with a type of "demonstrations" that involved “funding and armaments” whose origin they were curious about. I checked and there seems to be a real translation issue here. They don't use the usual word for protests: المظاهرات (almuzaharat) but rather التظاهرات (altazahurat) which Google Translate also turns to "demonstration" but with alternates readings: feint, simulation, pretense, or just "events" (from the base article here). I guess it's just a term the Syrian military used for this special kind of event, involving a "pretense" at protest along with real guns, that might have no single accurate translation. But we can see a few examples in the next section to get an idea.

An SJAC study of the files found document discussing Syrian troops detaining "family members to encourage suspects to turn themselves in." This is a pretty serious offense, but no details are given aside from this being one of several actions "soldiers were to cease" after deciding to do them, apparently, on their own. So there was no order found to kidnap innocent people, just the admission that it has happened, and the order to stop doing it.  Monitor on Massacre Marketing: A Clearer View on the "Assad Files" 

The Assad Files were used in the Marie Colvin case in 2019 to show command and control, who would be in charge of her killing, if the government had ordered it as alleged. There was no evidence that happened actually found anywhere in the files, suggesting it never happened, but some defector claims he witnessed the orders coming from the top and that was taken as good enough to consult the files for "who was at the top." (Monitor)

This all the CIJA and their ilk can do - show papers referring to officers and arrests and prisoners, then insert stories they were told, found no support for, and used anyway. As often as possible, they also cut to the visual proof of the "Casear photos." It's only the words of Caesar, other defectors and possibly unreliable witnesses that really link the photos and documents to alleged regime crimes. The documents themselves seem to provide little aside from black-and-white fluff to rest these dubious claims upon. More illustrations of this can be found below, as the Assad files come up by subject. The photos certainly add some terrible color. We'll consider these below, as the final topic.

2011: Shooting Protesters  

From March 2011 breathless reports spread far & wide claimed Assad's forces, Hezbollah, or others were shooting and killing peaceful protesters, as well as police, and regular citizens. Others report seeing shooting from the protester side, from rooftops and minarets, etc. as the government claimed. The top secret "Assad files" revealing the regime's orders should help clear this up.

A post half-done in 2021, and simply posted like that just the other day, looked at a publicized overview of several documents published by "Center for Justice and Accountability" (CJA and yes, that's a third cited group covering these files with "Justice and Accountability" in their name). As it happens, they found no orders to shoot and kill protesters, only reiterations not to shoot except in self-defense against armed gangs. 

An April 20, 2011 document referred to "Multi-faceted confrontation of demonstrators, saboteurs of security and vandals" - is that the full definition of "demonstrations"? Instructions on dealing with them include "Counter with weapons those who carry weapons against the state, while ensuring that civilians are not harmed." (v3 p104) Maybe that was code for "you know, do the opposite." August 19, 2011: "Ensure that no drop of blood is shed when confronting and dispersing peaceful demonstrations." (19/08/11 v1 p163) "Ensure that all elements hide their personal weapons, do not show it and do not shoot under any circumstances, except in extreme cases of self-defense. Make sure they use reason, wisdom, prudence and absorb and deal with the sedition in a way that preserves the prestige of the state. (30/03/11) Or maybe they meant "squander the prestige of the state on mindless killings, especially of the national majority group."

Sniper shootings of protesters, widely blamed on secret regime and Hezbollah elements, are acknowledged, with orders to stop and apprehend any of these snipers, if possible. In Hama, they reported May 6, 2011 "An unidentified sniper[sniped] on the rooftop of Mounekh mosque and another on the rooftop of a house off Umar Ibn Khattab Mosque shot demonstrators, killing one and injuring 43." (06/05/11 v3 p233) 04/05/11 Branch: Deir ez-Zor: "Our elements will keep on covering of our branch sector and will spread on the roofs of the building to stop the saboteurs from shooting the protestors. We are keen on tracking down those who incite others to demonstrate and carry out acts of rioting." v2 p95

When shooting deaths following a clash in Izraa on April 22, 2011, started by "an infiltrated entity" firing on security forces but with civilians somehow also killed, it was described as "a difficult day ... pushing us into circumstances we are better off without. If the directives previously issued had been adhered to we would have prevented bloodshed, and matters would not have come to this culmination." Indeed, 2 days earlier, they reminded everyone "ensuiring that civilians are not harmed" was a top priority. Recommended actions now included "Focusing on arresting inciters, especially those shooting at demonstrators (snipers or infiltrators)" and that "a sniper, inciter or infiltrator be presented to the public in a manner that convinced them, and earns their trust."

In June, 2011, some 120 Syrian soldiers were killed in Jisr al-Shughour, reportedly by their commanding officers and/or their Hezbollah bosses, when they refused to shoot at some peaceful Sunni protesters. (ACLOS). But it's also said they were killed, after their ammunition ran out and they became incapable of shooting, by a Turkish-backed local unit of a Free Officer's Movement (precursor to the FSA) that fled back to Turkey afterwards. In fact, the group's commander Hussein Harmoush bragged there of beheading all the Alawite soldiers to his (Alawite) Turkish MIT handler Önder Sığırcıkoğlu, who was so disgusted he had Harmoush smuggled back to Syria to appear on state TV and presumably face execution. For this act of treason against the Turkish state,  Sığırcıkoğlu was publicly tried and imprisoned, then broken out by some capable admirers, and remained in hiding last I heard. (see here) So yeah ... the proto-FSA butchered those soldiers, not commanding officers, Hezbollah, or any other Shi'ite boogeymen. 

Assad Files: did the regime forces order protesters killed or massacre their own? No mention of such an order or event. Behind closed doors, they only say the same thing they told world, to widespread yawns; foreign-backed terrorists were butchering their boys, besides massively lying about it. At Jisr al Shughour, they said in secret, a first mass grave with 12 soldiers was found, "killed by the armed gangs after their ammunition ran out ... their bodies had been desecrated and their heads and limbs cut off." 

That was June, 2011, not 3 months into the "peaceful" uprising, just as army defectors like Harmoush were moving to finally "offer the protesters some protection." It went downhill from there as the FSA then Jabhat al-Nusra and others, then ISIS swelled, partly on the back of sectarian lies like those about the Jisr al-Shughour Massacre of dissenting soldiers. 

2011: Torturing and Killing Kids

Assad files: SJAC's sample of 3,470 pages includes reference to 6 children detained (presumably all teenagers, but ages not given). Two were taken in for insulting Assad, and one for being in a protest - arrests we could well question - while the other 3 teenagers (b. 1997-1999) were arrested in 2014 for more militant crimes (training to shoot, joining in attacks, filming attacks, suspicious surveillance of pro-government civilians, etc.). There was no mention of any of them being tortured or killed in custody or of any remotely related order. 

There's also reference to one boy killed in Deir Ezzour, not in custody but in clashes, quite likely after his training as an opposition child soldier was not interrupted early, as with those other 3. Maybe some of these bemoaned arrests wound up saving the detainee's life. 

Back on April 29, 2011, dozens of men and 3 boys (age 12, 15, 17) were allegedly detained from a mobile protest near Saida, Hama, after security forces opened fire on them for no reason. Some 50 were reported killed in a "Saida massacre," some on that day and others allegedly killed under torture in regime detention. 12-year-old Hamza Al-Khatib is the most famous of these, with a detailed story of how he was held and tortured for nearly a month, beaten and shackled, bizarrely bloated up with fluids and finally castrated before he was shot dead. The government, in contrast, claimed Hamza's body was found after the shooting on 4/29, somehow left naked and unidentified, and was held in refrigeration ever since. 

report: lost then found but needing reposted - overview post here: https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2016/04/re-considering-hamza-al-khatib-and.html

Hamza's body was released to his family on May 25, having allegedly been killed that same day. But what some call bruises and torture-related bloating on his body are clearly signs of decay, probably equating to a month in refrigeration, like the government said. Several other late-released bodies show the same kind of decay, starting with a green spot on the belly and spreading to darken the whole body in the latest case. This all suggests the "Saida massacre" was a one-day event that remains quite murky. Whatever happened to Hamza's penis (unclear/disputed) was probably done before the government found the body. Other bodies show various signs of torture as well; 15-year-old Thamer had a mangled face as if hit with a claw hammer, before he even went in the fridge and had his belly slowly shift yellow-green and his wounds black. He was also reportedly "bludgeoned" in the genitals (Amnesty). An older man, Mahmoud al-Zoubi, was found to have died from a heart attack resulting from "torture," also prior to his appearing naked after the shooting. His face would also appear as one of the earliest entries in the "Caesar photos" of unidentified bodies (see below) - perhaps a telling inclusion (Monitor).

2012: Sectarian Massacres

From the beginning, more heavily in 2012, and rarely after that, Syrian forces were accused of grisly massacres of civilians along sectarian lines, in literally hundreds of cases, each killing a few to over 100 civilians. With Syrian military support, as the story tended to go, Alawite "Shabiha" death squads would murder entire Sunni Muslim families based on religion alone. 

Assad Files: no orders to carry out such massacre has ever been mentioned. Instead, they say things like "We should not turn any of our fellow citizens into enemies" because, as put elsewhere, "We are all in the same boat," a boat called Syria.  https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-clearer-view-on-assad-files.html

SJAC found nothing about sectarian tensions in the files except, I presume, many orders to avoid it, which SJAC ignored, and one hybrid case where a government policy led to deadly tensions until another policy corrected that trend they considered negative.Security forces had decided to use knowledgeable, largely Alawite locals to identify people (mainly Sunni) for arrest, leading to revenge kidnappings and maybe counter-kidnappings until "reciprocal sectarian kidnappings and killings peaked in Homs" in a crisis the government wanted resolved. So they decided "The use of civilians at some checkpoints to openly select targets" was to be banned. Authorities were urged instead to "use covert security methods that do not incite hatred and tension among the citizens." 

So, again, even in secret, Syrian officials can only be seen working to lessen tensions and minimize the chance for strife, which other parties were working to instill in Syria in those days. "Christians to Beirut, Alawites to the Grave" was a popular chant at anti-Assad rallies in these days. 

But somewhere even more secret, they must have decided to make most Syrians their enemies and to try and kill them all, in barbaric and shocking way when possible, judging by the widely-accepted narrative of, for example, the infamous Houla Massacre of May 25, 2012. ACLOS page linking to a number of detailed sub-pages. I had 2 PDF reports posted to my old CIWCL page that I let expire - with CE's helps, now reposted at ACLOS: 

Alleged: 108 Sunnis killed at random, including a few opposition fighters but mainly whole families of civilians, including 49 children. (However, a list made from other lists correlated has 9 opposition fighters killed besides 112 civilians, including 64 children.) They were killed, as reported, by army shelling and home invasion massacres by Alawite "Shabiha," in the "liberated" and 100% Sunni "town" of Al-Houla, after the small FSA force had fled, hoping their absence could ease the shelling. Instead, they say, the FSA absence allowed another Shabiha massacre, by Alawite butchers recruited from nearby villages. 

In fact, the massacre happened in Taldou, the last part of the Houla region still secured by the government as of May 25, when reinforced local Islamists attacked and took or circumvented at least some - and probably all - the town's security posts, killing several soldiers. Despite their efforts to conceal this truth, careful analysis of the opposition-supplied videos shows rebels taking over on that day, engaging in clashes inside the once-secured area. Security scene map:

The water co. post (lower right, on a hill overlooking the town) was never overrun, but attacked, pinned-down and circumvented. Best evidence has all other security posts taken: UN investigation even agrees on the roundabout post ("overrun," allowing potential terrorist access to the bulk of victims on Saad rd.) and MIHQ ("likely overrun), in their likely pre-planned offensive that day. The investigators didn't seem to care the arches post was just a truck that wouldn't stop anyone for long, and didn't notice that the national hospital seems to be on fire and belching smoke by sunset, when it was reportedly overrun along with the army post there, and then set on fire. Army snipers at the hospital were the UN's main basis for ruling out a rebel massacre on Saad Road - the snipers would've stopped that. But those guys were likely killed, so ... yeah. And there was a massacre there by someone just then.   

The massacre happened in these newly liberated areas, on Saad road and Main Street, immediately after the liberation. The witnesses who correctly describe "the battle for the Houla Massacre" say the victors killed - in a very targeted way - Sunnis who converted to Shi'ism (Abdulrazaq families, the bulk of those killed) and Sunnis who supported the government (2 families named Al-Sayed). The family butchers came in after the FSA, these witnesses said, like their upside-down version of "Shabiha," wearing black, and suspected of being with Al Qaeda (Jabhat al-Nusra was either unformed or little-known at the time). Children had their heads sliced open, their jaws torn off, and more. 

An "Alawite family Shomaliya" also reported killed in the Houla massacre was apparently a confused reference to a next-day massacre in the not-so-close Alawite village al-Shumariyeh. Syrian state TV did show some grisly scenes of at least one family executed in their living room, presumably in that village. Shumariyeh Massacre - A Closer Look On Syria

So many I've looked into, I'm skipping a lot. Just to give an idea of the scale, my post on Homs Massacres, 2011-2013 has numerous shady stories compiled, with no summary here, just from Syria's #3 city Homs. https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/06/syria-homs-massacres.html

Al-Bayda and Baniyas massacres of Sunnis, May 2013: With the later, massive and grisly Banyas massacre being far murkier, I've focused on the all-Sunni village of Al-Bayda, where there's also more information to work with (the opposition seemingly wanted us to focus on this one and let it shape our idea of Baniyas, which happened in a district of the Sunni-majority city that's unusually mixed = possible massacre of Alawites or other minorities). Some 70+ civilians were killed on May 2 in Al-Bayda just for being Sunni, following a "Shabiha" raid in response to a fatal rebel attack on other "Shabiha" in the pre-dawn hours. 

Or, as some videos might show, the killing happened hours before that raid, in the same pre-dawn dark when local Islamists were killing security forces in the town. So who was killing local civilians at that same time? Most or perhaps all of those killed were relatives of a Sunni imam - sheikh Omar Biassi - who happened to be a prominent supporter of the government and a critic of the armed rebellion. (36 victims shared his name, and many others come from intermarried families)Rebels said one of his female relatives who was pregnant was sliced open by the "Shabiha" and her fetus was separately executed. It sounds far-fetched, like the false claims leveled by some Israelis against Hamas fighters, but they did show a photo of an executed, underdeveloped fetus. And one of their pre-dawn videos shows several executed women and children opposition people had discovered, including a seemingly pregnant woman but fully clothed and apparently not yet butchered. Is that the same woman? If so, who sliced her belly open after rebels had access to her body? https://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Al-Bayda_Massacre

Somehow the opposition's Al-Bayda massacre story remains widely accepted, even though the victim targeting raised a few eyebrows (as it failed to do with Houla & others), and even though this sectarian Shabiha massacre narrative was already falling apart and out of fashion by then. People realized that opposition Islamist fighters could -potentially - carry out massacres like these, using guns and blades close up, and somehow, that idea actually took root. At the end of 2012 and early 2013, three massacres blamed on Assad were met with skepticism even from opposition activist and mainstream Western media. 

UK Channel 4, ITV News and BBC News actually spoke with local witnesses, besides hearing phoned-in activist reports, for the massacre of perhaps over 200 Alawites in Aqrab on December 10 and of ~100 Sunnis in Haswiyeh in January. The locals blamed rebels, Al-Nusra Front specifically, and it was not laughed off. Supporting evidence appears in each video report. In between these, a reported massacre in Ma'an around December 25 was pre-questioned by the opposition SOHR, who had worried publicly the Islamist rebels about to seize the Alawite village Ma'an might commit a massacre there. They did take Ma'an and claimed to just find 23 people killed, they say all of the local Sunni minority killed and left behind by retreating Shabiha, but left charred and unrecognizable, with some beheaded. I suspect that those were either Alawites or Sunnis killed for happily living alongside Alawites. Aqrab Massacre - A Closer Look On Syria - Haswiyeh Massacre - A Closer Look On Syria - Maan Massacre - A Closer Look On Syria

After all this growing skepticism regarding these family-slaughtering massacres that could have been by the genocidal terrorists known to be stalking Syria, Assad allegedly decided to start massacring Sunnis in less confusing methods that only his military could manage - missiles and barrel bombs from jets and helicopters rebels lacked, scud missiles that rebels had only seized a few of, and then chemical weapons they presumably couldn't have.

Bombardment Massacres

Just 2 quick examples of cases that didn't turn out so good, not that anyone much noticed or cared:

Khalidiya, Homs, Feb. 2012: some 200 locals killed, with a core of 138 from regime shelling that flattened homes, killing entire families of men, women and children, leading president Obama and others to call for Assad to step down. Other locals reported the victims seen on video were their relatives, including Christians, who were kidnapped by the terrorists enjoying free reign in Homs after the army was compelled to withdraw; the terrorists killed them by "dynamiting" or perhaps shelling a place they were held. Opposition sources said differently, but listed the core 138 victims, the families killed in shelling, as 100% male and nearly all adult by Islamist standards (age 13+). These aren't families. The segregated male hostages, it seems, were in the place someone blew up to get Assad in trouble while killing some religious enemies of the Sunni extremist insurgents. (ACLOS)

Douma market attack, 2015: some 112 civilians were reportedly killed at the open market in a regime jet attack, punishing them for their undying support for the Saudi-backed Jaish al-Islam. However, all 4 "jet strikes" look like artillery strikes from the south, and all fit in a perfect arc wrapping around a spot 800m to the south. As for the punishment part ... the locals had protested Jaysh al-Islam, compelling them to leave the area, maybe to the south. At least 100 of the 112 or so reported victims were listed as adult males, video analysis reveals at least some of them were killed before the alleged jet attack even occurred, and at least 95 of them went unclaimed and were interred in a mass grave. All this suggests the bulk of victims were, again, controlled and gender-segregated prisoners, executed on demand to flesh out yet another alleged regime crime. http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/08/douma-market-attack-masterlist.html

2013-2018: Chemical Attacks

Assad also turned, allegedly, to chemical weapons the rebels supposedly didn't or couldn't have, at least not in the reported quantities ... or so people hoped, assumed, and insisted. He still tried to blame the rebels, but it didn't work very well, and so Bashar al-Assad stands accused of all these incidents considered below and more, some of them killing his own soldiers. There's far too much found, by myself and others I work with, to cover here even in passing, so a fast and partial review is in order. 

The Assad Files of course reveal no orders related to the use chemical weapons. One passage taken as a coded hint was a mention, on February 8, 2012, We received information stating that the Libyan terrorists have acquired chemical weapons from the Libyan chemical arsenal. The weapons will be shipped to Turkish territories to be used later in some Syrian governorates, especially the ones that are facing unrest. This will be done in order to accuse the regime, in coordination with biased television channels, of using the chemical weapons, in order to escalate the Syrian crisis and internationalize it after all the failed attempts to move the Syrian crisis dossier to the Security Council. File:Assad Files 2-2-2012.jpg - A Closer Look On Syria

Some early, vague allegations of regime CW use in Baba Amr, Homs, followed on or by February 21. (Monitor)  Otherwise, there were no such incidents until late 2012. Obama's red line threat/offer stated that if Assad used, or seems to have used chemical weapons, the US might decide to intervene militarily to aid the opposition. I missed it when he first said this on August 20, 2012, and it didn't seem to spark anything at the time. But when he repeated it on December 3, I noticed, and started watching for the false claims or false-flag attacks he had just invited. 

Three days later, on Dec. 6, the first reports came in, as I noted at ACLOS - vague reports of regime gas use in Daraya, with no details and no clear word on casualties. The first reported deaths were on December 22 - seven soldiers in the Syrian army who had cornered some terrorists in that same Daraya. Details are sparse, but the gas was reportedly yellow, just like the sarin used in all the attacks to follow. (ACLOS)

On March 19, 2013, Syrian troops and civilians in the reclaimed Shi'ite village of Khan al-Assal, Aleppo, were affected by a chemical attack reported to use sarin (yellow, reported by some as chlorine), killing some 20 people, including a treating physician. (Monitor) Syria demanded a probe, which was stalled for 5 months  by Western governments, adding invasive demands and other alleged attacks by the government,  (Monitor) before UN-OPCW investigators ("inspectors") finally arrived in Syria on August 18, ready to analyze that terrorist sarin attack. 

But before they could leave Damascus, in the early hours of August 21, a massive chemical attack happened nearby, in Eastern and Western Ghouta, killing hundreds of civilians (reportedly 1,429, and by visuals it was at least 400, probably 500+ and perhaps as many as claimed). It's reported that over 400 of the dead were children. This deadliest chemical attack since Halabja obviously distracted the investigators from the planned probe of Khan al-Assal attack. Instead, investigators visited both Moadamiya (next to Daraya, in W. Ghouta) and Zamalka / Ain Tarma in E. Ghouta, inspected 5 impact points, collected many samples, interviewed supposed witnesses, and took biological samples, all under guard of local Islamist forces, and sometimes under fire from mysterious snipers.

Skipping some interesting anomalies in what was found, the UN and/or OPCW somehow used a single and grossly wrong rocket bearing from E. Ghouta (where there were reportedly 12 impacts), paired with an untested reading from W. Ghouta, in their initial report. Combined with ignorance of the weapons' effective range, these incorrect bearings allowed many (Human Rights Watch for one) to point to a Syrian military base, falsely implicating the Syrian military within a few weeks. Later work I was involved in (overview post with links to 2 reports, our discussion with Aaron Mate on Push Back) explains that error and correctly reads more than 7 rocket impacts for trajectories, finding that they intersect 2km out in a small area in Jobar that includes a field matching the one seen a video of Islamist fighters launching the same kind of rockets (3 firings seen) in what would be the same directions, on what they say is August 21 (and it's dark), and this field seems to have new, consistent scorching by a satellite view taken 2 days later. So, strange as it sounds, that video seems to depict the Ghouta attack, by apparent Islamists, in a spot the Syrian military could hardly access. 

I found 2 more sites later, but with no clear direction clues. It's pretty clear the 12 rockets reported were all fired then. The 3 sites the UN-OPCW visited in E. Ghouta all tested sarin. Most likely but not surely, 12 sarin rockets impacted, almost surely killing a good number of people, even in this semi-rural and war-depopulated area. However, as the late Denis O'Brien (PhD, neuropharmacology) explained, first in an open letter to congress and then in an e-book Murder in the SunMorgue, the hundreds of seen victims overwhelmingly fail to display the signs expected for sarin fatalities (like cyanosis and the SLUDGE syndrome). This remains a bit subjective, but suggests a different toxin was used. I have also noticed the clinical signs varied from one location to the next, which is also subjective but would indicate different toxins (plural) were used in different areas. 

Could it be, like the bombardment massacres mentioned above, that controlled prisoners were killed for this event? 

There were some 200 women and children taken captive a few weeks earlier in rural Latakia, after their men over 13 were openly executed by fighters in a grand Islamist coalition involving Jabhat al-Nusra and literal ISIS, among others. The victims of the Ghouta massacre were not culled from among these, as many have claimed. That would mean they were gassed in or near Latakia, whereas a few batches totaling over 300 bodies have been geolocated to certain spots in E. Ghouta. (Monitor). Still, I collected some signs that the victims were prisoners, includes how, as O'Brien noted, one gassing survivor in Kafr Batna was finished off with some kind of throat injury. (Monitor) (later note: his face was initially covered with a cloth to help see if his breathing increased. It apparently did, and then the cloth covered his bleeding neck). As noted in the first link above, one boy seen alive in Irbeen would later be seen dead, with new freckles on his face and a nosebleed, both being signs of death by manual strangulation.

Hardly any bodies were shown where they fell - in homes, in the streets, or anything. Some people are seen arriving at the Kafr Batna "clinic," but they're not the ones seen dead there. Just one family of 8 or 9 was shown dead in a vacant building. But they appear executed with weapons, judging by decay, a couple days before the Ghouta attack. And their lack of shoes plus winter coats on the women - in August - suggest they were held prisoner by Islamists before someone executed them in this vacant building. (Monitor) Otherwise, it could be we don't see where the people died because those were terrorist gas chambers we weren't meant to see. But they might've slipped and let us see the one in Kafr Batna (as noted by O'Brien, same link as above) and maybe in Irbeen. (See also William Van Wagenen "Sarin doesn't slice throats"

But the official bodies had the wrong rocket bearing and whatever other reasons, be it evidentiary or just political, to blame Damascus, and this had follow-on effects. Having analyzed sarin found at the site of these terrorist rocket strikes in Ghouta, and having decided it was regime sarin, the UN-OPCW investigators came back to finally investigate that terrorist attack at Khan al-Assal. They found that too was sarin and the formula was a match and so, sadly ... the regime must have gassed their own and just blamed terrorists, demanded a probe, then distracted the probe with their own attack using the same sarin, providing this proof all on their own, for whatever reasons. This is one of the most absurd tales ever told, and it's accepted as fact by most people, because official bodies said so, and they never cared enough to apply any skepticism.   

Three days after Ghouta, on August 24, Syria reported its troops were closing in on the area the sarin rockets were fired, some 3-400m from that spot we identified, when 2 canisters of sarin were reportedly launched at them, with one failing to detonate. 4 soldiers needed hospitalized, one of them severely affected and taking days to recover, but none were killed. The OPCW would confirm the government's blood test proving sarin exposure in the one soldier (time lapse probably explains the 3 negatives), and would later find the sarin inside the improvised canisters had the same formula as the sarin used in the Ghouta and Khan al-Assal attacks. Alleged Chemical Attack, August 24, 2013 - A Closer Look On Syria

So the regime must've kept on gassing their own troops. This was just one of three CW attacks on Syrian troops in the days after the Ghouta attack. One of them in deep E. Ghouta on the 22nd was found to be something milder than sarin and that seemed likely enough to me on review. The third attack on August 24 was next to Daraya. Symptoms and initial blood tests indicated sarin, but with the time elapsed before OPCW analysis, they couldn't confirm the exposure. (UN report) There's no word on the exact formula, but it's most likely the same as used in all the other attacks running back to December. 

The same formula sarin would be confirmed in, at least, 3 other sarin incidents over the years:

Saraqeb, 4/29/13 in a special hand grenade otherwise associated with Jabhat al-Nusra, but dropped from a regime helicopter by Assad's forces, killing one woman.  (ACLOShttps://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/10/saraqeb-sarin-incident-magic-grenades.html

Lataminah, March 2017: in at least one or another of a few attacks (one seemingly invented after-the-fact), the same formula of sarin was reportedly dispersed by a M-4000 bomb from a passing Syrian jet. The evidence is all messed up. I'm behind on it and there may be a review project I'll help prompt by failing to go into detail here.

Khan Sheikhoun, April 4 2017, the same sarin would be delivered, also reportedly by a M-4000 bomb, hardly any of which was produced (a bit more detail below).  

The four known weapons used to deliver "government-stockpile" sarin in 2013 are each interesting, and especially put together like this.

In between these sarin attacks was a long pause between 2014 and 2017. After the massive Ghouta gambit failed to get him attacked by the US, and as Assad agreed to give up his chemical program, he allegedly stopped trying with Obama, and acted like a man with no more sarin program. He waited to test his secret sarin with the next president instead, biding his time between with lower-fatality chlorine attacks, as if just to keep the issue alive until 2017. 

These include an attack in Sarmin, March 2015, where a bizarre binary chlorine barrel bomb was said, implausibly, to fall down the air vent of an unfinished house, killing a family of 6 living in the basement. 3 children are seen dead or dying, with no eye redness from the alleged hours of chlorine exposure, and symptoms of paralysis and suppressed breathing more suggestive of an overdose with an opiate or CNS depressant. The infant boy at least is seen alive, managing one yawn-like breath on video, before the Islamist attending surgeon stabs him in the chest with a likely adrenaline syringe, but never injects anything or offers any other CP support. Instead, he twirls the huge needle around in the infant's chest, removes it with the plunger in the same position, and then lets him die ... from "Assad's chlorine barrel bomb attack" as reported. 

White Helmets Movie: Updated Evidence From Swedish Doctors Confirm Fake ‘Lifesaving’ and Malpractices on Children – The Indicter

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/04/what-killed-talebs.html

That was one of the first appearances of the White Helmets, jointly documenting that grisly scene with the local chapter of the Al-Qaeda offshoot JAN/JFS/HTS. They would work together on most of the other alleged CW attacks listed below.

Then, almost as soon as president trump took office, 2017 saw new sarin attack reports. An alleged attack on Khan Sheikhoun on April 4 saw some 80+ locals killed. (ACLOS)  As with Ghouta, no one is seen where they fell - they just appear pre-collected in pickup trucks or at the White Helmets' cave hospital, where the victims were just sprayed with water until they died. Among the standing questions in this case is how sources indicate there was no jet over Khan Sheikhoun at the time to even drop this sarin bomb. Underrated point: opposition stories were clear and detailed in relating a wind to the SW causing deaths in that direction, whereas video shows the wind blowing the exact opposite way, to the NE, including at ground level. The real direction was likely cited but read backwards (the "to" and "from" directions are easily confused), and all the stories built atop that error are basically proven fakes. (Monitor) But it sparked the first US military attacks ordered by president Trump, over no "red line" he even had to specify. Bingo. He would do the same over Douma a year later. 

There was at least one sarin attack reported in November 2017 and another in February 2018, both non-fatal and confusingly said to involve chlorine as well. The OPCW found sarin at the stie of the February attack but had to rule it a coincidence (coincidental sarin! Can you believe it?), as they saw clues for a chlorine attack but felt the 2 agents cannot be mixed and still be effective, as opposition morons reported. 

These 2 events seemed to build up to the attack in Douma on April 7, where "Assad" still hadn't learned and launched another sarin-chlorine attack. But oddly, this time he switched back to simple chlorine mid-attack as it were. On the verge of Jaish al-Islam's defeat in their home base of Douma, a regime sarin-chlorine attack was originally said to kill around 200, with the death toll strangely revised to 43. The reported sarin never turned up, although chlorine and the canisters for it did appear. The visual evidence and all open, professional analysis of it, including from but rejected by the OPCW's investigation, suggests the evidence of an aerial attack was staged; the best reading is that someone manually placed the canisters next to pre-existing damage at the 2 alleged impact sites. The 35 bodies found at one site seemed arranged there as well, following an unclear death, perhaps somewhere else.

I can add, among other points, that the Douma victims were likely relatives of a rival opposition commander, probably held prisoner in some way by the ruling Jaish al-Islam, and were likely killed by exposure to nitric acid, or something that produced it, while bound in an upside-down position, and fitted with swimming goggles for unclear reasons. Only some have yellow-then-brown staining and/or irritation on their upper faces, with exclusions in the clear shape of swimming goggle lenses and sometimes unusual securing straps (right: extracted pattern on a female victim's face). But nitric acid, like chlorine, is an irritant to the eyes, and no victims display eye redness. What else can explain death from breathing acid with no eye irritation except for goggles someone has since removed? (the chlorine that likely passed over their eyes caused no redness because that requires a heartbeat, and they were dead before they were ever laid here).

Also, initial reports that would run to around 200 killed, and later be specified as 187, remain credible. That would make it the second-deadliest chemical massacre of the Dirty War, with most simply de-listed along with the sarin, whatever exactly caused that strange story change (were the militants bringing sarin to spike the site killed by the SAAF along the way?).

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2023/02/regarding-how-victims-were-killed-by.html

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/04/doumas-mask-of-death-part-1.html

Some 2,000 people Jaish al-Islam held prisoner and agreed to release never did emerge from that captivity, with their fates being unclear. Likely several hundred were killed for the Ghouta chemical massacre, and some were probably used up in the last days for the Douma massacre, besides those killed and used for other events. 

And that brings us to the final point and people who allegedly died in enormous numbers inside the prisons of the "Assad regime."

Prisoner Abuse & Extermination 

Recent post-liberation finds at Sednaya prison are supposed to prove all the alleged abuses in Syria's prisons, and this news will merit some study next. Piles of bloody nooses. A body press to illustrate their repressiveness. Michael Kobs on X is covering that stuff. I'll try to catch up, but first, here's where I had left off seriously questioning all that. It's a wide subject I never tried to master, so I'll be brief until I'm less-brief.

There are many stories, quite possibly made up, swearing to a range of horrid abuses, sometimes seemingly tailored to fit the content of specific "Caesar photos" as if the verify them. However, some million pages of top-secret "Assad files" seemingly provide no supporting evidence for orders to torture, starve, neglect, abuse, kill or mass-exterminate prisoners, at least that anyone whose looked at them has mentioned. It's widely accepted as fact that this was all ordered from above, and opposition-supporting defectors claim to have seen the orders passed down all the time. And the Assad files curators make it sound like they have massive proof but, again, every time they want to show this proof, they turn to a witness claim instead of a single verified order. The documents seemingly provide little aside from black-and-white fluff to rest these other dubious claims upon. 

Assad Files: Investigators mainly found re-iterations of previous orders to care for and not abuse the prisoners. The Syrian Justice and Accountability Center (SJAC) in a report (now deleted? link is 404 - my review) had to concede "None of the pages in the sample set explicitly admitted to the use of torture, despite widespread and consistent accusations..." That's zero out of 3,470 relevant pages they had, despite all those claims of routine, horrific torture. The best the report could do was point to "a handwritten note from a detained individual who confessed to crimes and swore that he was not beaten or tortured during his arrest, raising suspicions that he may have indeed been tortured or mistreated in detention." Yeah, with some imagination, there you go - a supposed lack of torture, once specified, becomes evidence for torture that strangely lacks any straightforward evidence. 

Reference to just one death in custody was found in the SJAC sample, and they had to doubt its claims that the man died from an infection, stemming from an injury sustained during his arrest (probably shot so, in fact, likely a shooting militant). SJAC think the Youtube video shows bruising, but that was likely the fatal infection they saw, and/or the early stages of decay like the "bruising" seen with Hamza al-Khatib and the others (video date/time lapse also unclear). Anyway, no other deaths were noted, and no order to cause deaths were actually discovered. Again, despite the widespread and likely 100% fake stories.   

A memo of August 27 2013 "stresses how the detainees should not be beaten, humiliated or detained arbitrarily." It goes on to acknowledge: “Certain errors made by some Department branches were reviewed, including: (Arbitrary detention… the use of intensity, beating, and torture of detainees ….etc.), emphasizing the imperative of averting these issues.” Is that meant to be read sarcastically, or written in code? (https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/09/assad-files-2018-part-2.html)

Another passage: “It is imperative to attend to the cleanliness of the prison and all its facilities, and the hygiene and health of detainees…to preserve lives and reduce deaths which have considerably risen lately.” 

The "Caesar photos" seem to depict a very different world. These are said to show nearly 7,000 men, older boys and one woman killed systematically in Syrian detention, just from 2011 up to August, 2013, in a system feared to continue well after that. The horrific photos were smuggled out of Syria by a defector code-named "Caesar" (and not for the illogical given reason). The photos and Caesar's explanation of them, corroborated with some contradictions by other opposition-supporting defector-types, are the basis of "Caesar civilian Protection Act" of US Congress ...  any country governed by a dictator willing to do that cannot be allowed to rebuild from the US funded proxy war there, because a lot of suffering was needed, I suspect, to finally break the will of Syrians and bring down Assad. And civilian suffering is just what the act actually promised.  

The supposed military intelligence ID numbers attached to the bodies in the photos (like 215-1234), allegedly assigned upon arrest - would suggest most prisoners were systematically killed in the exact order they were arrested - assembly-line style. Their bodies come in just that sequentially and judging by the other (unidentified body?) numbers, at a rate of about 1,000 a month for at least 10 months in a row (November 2012 to August, 2013). Most of them have suffered severe malnutrition and neglect, sometimes prolonged bondage and, more sporadically, signs of torture like lash marks. 

This photo of perhaps 50 emaciated corpses, with no kind of prison uniform and mostly naked, processed at once, might be a typical day. But this and a few other unusual views allows a clear geolocation the garages area behind military hospital 601 in Damascus, where Caesar says he took all these grim photos. The fact that he includes geolocation shots for later investigations goes to suggest these were never official photos he smuggled out, but his own improvised ones. That improvisation might include elements of dishonesty to misrepresent what was happening here.

Syrian officials have been fairly quiet on these photos, but have explained they show unidentified bodies being processed, attaching numbers to photos for later retrieval of the buried body, once the family made an ID, adding that some are soldiers killed by armed gangs. But the last part is standard boilerplate and this clearly is not a complete answer, even if true. Why so many unidentified bodies and what about their horrible condition? 

In several rounds of work some years back, I saved screenshot copies of over 99% of the 6,700 ish publicized faceshots (only some 5 or so needles lost in the branch 215 haystack, and total coverage of other folders), saving them with all attached info, for a readable catalog I obsessively went over for visual, temporal, and other clues. My research suggested these ~7,000 men, boys and the one woman were definitely prisoners, but more likely held by opposition forces - maybe Liwa/Jaish al-Islam and/or their allies Jabhat al-Nusra (now known as Syria's new government?). It seems plausible that they were killed in repeated large batches and dumped for the government to find and process. I suspect they sent so many because their inside ally - the heralded hero "Caesar" - was there to help launder the bodies as prisoners of the government. He could incorporate the fictional military intelligence numbers written on the bodies onto ID cards he made up, putting them alongside the unidentified body/burial number, to make these look like known but coded prisoners set to be buried. And if it can be made into a show like that, why not make the show truly cinematic in scale?

The suspect ID numbers initially came on forehead tape that was often removed prior to morgue photos that were supposedly meant to confirm these numbers (ex: body 645 of "unknown branch" in the July 1, 2012 folder) later they would be written on the body in permanent market, sometimes in many spots, and then the numbers stayed in the photos. Did someone declare the ID tape offensive terrorist graffiti, or suspect it was for some insider to see and document? "Caesar" had a spell then (mid-August to October, 2012) where he was unable to collect photos, but somehow he came back to witness, just as the show exploded to 1,000 per month. 

Monitor on Massacre Marketing: "Caesar Photos": Timeline of Terror

There are a great many reports from alleged fellow prisoners and family members of Caesar photos victims swearing they had been arrested by the government and that they learned of their deaths in custody in great detail ... usually from some opposition-aligned friend of his who happened be there to see it all but then be released. I admit I haven't tried to review all these reports, but that's how it was with a few I did check, and I don't trust those "friends." 

A frequent general pattern that I might have an alternate explanation for: Example citizen "Fadi" is detained on a phoned-in tip, held in normal conditions with visits allowed until trial, found totally innocent (and the tip itself found suspicious?), and "Fadi" is released. Then with this record or detentions by the regime down on the record, it seems obvious what happened when he vanished a week later, arrested at some "checkpoint." Authorities won't say or don't know where he is, but a former prisoner says he saw "Fadi" at Sednaya, for example, and then he appears starved down and purple in the Caesar photos.

Assad Files: docs said by HRW and UK Channel 4 to help prove TWO photo lineups between 2 "Caesar photos" victims and 2 regime prisoners referenced in the Assad files with the same number, as if that were a special and not a common thing. I was able to show how the dates only approximately line up between the fake terrorist numbers on the Ceaser photos victims and real prisoners who died in unrelated news (indeed, different reasons were given). That's just the kind of coincidence you'd expect a case or two of in datasets of this scale. Those are probably the only two, and the rest of the cases failing to even approximately match up just go to suggest these were always two different sets of prisoners. 

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/10/assad-files-caesar-photo-line-ups.html

Assad Files: A December 2012 Circular to the Military Intelligence Department, signed by its Head, asks: “When any detainee dies in the prisons of the branches of the Department…. their status is then presented to the Head of the Department on the same day by telegram regarding the reasons for their arrest, the findings of their interrogation and the causes of death…”  Consider branch 227 and 215 - with over 80% of the dead between them - killed every prisoner, in roughly or exactly the same order they were arrested (going by what Caesar says). body rate at this time - November 2012 to August 2013, was about 1.000 per month, in a routine and total system ... and one of the guys in charge wants every one reported individually to him? Maybe. Or, is it possible ... these were always two different sets of prisoners?

I find it quite interesting how the Caesar photos run up to August, 2013. Then, on August 20, Caesar reportedly faked his own death and fled Syria with his photos, fearing he was in danger. A strange detail no one mentions but that I finally discerned from the bizarre clinical symptoms so many displayed: most of the Caesar photo victims seem to have died from exposure to a strongly caustic gas, while suspended upside-down. (Finally explained in decent detail in this post) Was someone testing chemical extermination methods for their prisoners? Just hours after Caesar fled, the Ghouta chemical attack killed x hundred app. prisoners, but now including women and children, publicly crossing Obama's red line and risking bombs on Damascus. Is that what Caesar knew to fear, suddenly, on August 20? What kind of company would he keep to receive tips like that? What would he have given in return?

Note: Only a few Ghouta victims  (some of the "Ain Tarma cemetery" ones - see here, with ugly graphic images) show clear signs of being suspended upside-down and exposed to toxic gas like the Caesar photo victims, but this same method would appear again, as noted above, with the 2018 Douma massacre, again likely captives of Liwa/Jaish al-Islam (however there is no sign of nitric acid and only limited sign of goggles/eye protection in the Caesar photos - those would be new twists). Are these all variations on the same theme, an obsession of some local armed group?

FWIW I suspect the massive body flow to August stopped once that audience was gone. I don't suspect the same horror show kept running, at least not on that scale. I sure hope it didn't.

Summary

The celebrated overthrow of the "Assad regime" was supposed to remove the criminals from power in the name of Justice and Accountability over a lot of extremely serious crimes. But to the extent the research above is correct, it just removed the peoples' protector and brought to power the same forces - broadly speaking - behind perhaps every serious "Assad crime." The shooting of protesters, torturing and killing of kids, sectarian false-flag massacres like the ones in Houla and Al-Bayda, staged bombardment massacres, chemical weapons massacres, and the mass extermination of ~7,000 men and boys as documented in the "Caesar photos," and even more. The side responsible for the crueler, grislier, and much larger half of over half a million killed in Syria's Dirty war was - I think - just rewarded with control of all Syria's people. And, of course, it's being cheered all over. What do we think of and do about this?


Thursday, August 31, 2023

Ghouta Report Debunk Efforts: Still Not Refuted & More from Marschke

August 31, 2023

(rough - edits pending)

Still Un-Refuted 

I got sidetracked with this so it's now been 10 years and 10 days since the Ghouta chemical massacre in the wee hours of 21 August, 2013. The Syrian military allegedly fired rockets and shells containing sarin nerve gas on opposition-held areas in the Damascus suburbs of East and West Ghouta, killing hundreds of civilians - reportedly as many as 1,100, 1,429, or even 1,700. (I can attest to a visual minimum of around 500, mostly geolocated to Ghouta, and I suspect the true number is around or over 1,000) It was the deadliest chemical weapons attack of the war or ever, aside from Halabjah in 1988. 

And yet, as many now complain, no one has been held directly to account or adequately punished, assuming this would be the Syrian government. They did already have to surrender their CW program, at least supposedly, to avoid US military strikes, and military aid to the insurgents increased due to the incident, among other detrimental effects. But none of the economic sanctions saddling the Syrian people, for example, were directly in response to this attack, but that could well change. No arrest warrants have been issued over it. And of course Assad was not deposed - there was no "ultimate price" paid. Folks are saying that needs to change. 

The always-amazing Aaron Maté recently reminded his followers on Twitter (now "X") "Today is 10th anniversary of the Ghouta chemical massacre in Syria. US blamed Syrian gov't, but all evidence points to sectarian death squad rebels. That's why Obama didn't bomb. There are Western officials who know more about Ghouta than has been publicly disclosed. Just as the OPCW leaks exposed the Douma deception, perhaps they will find a way to tell the truth about Ghouta." 

He followed with a shorth thread, concluding it with this note: "A 2021 open-source study from @MichaKobs , @CL4Syr and others traced all missile impact locations in Ghouta back to the most likely launch spot where they all intersected: a small area within insurgent-controlled territory. No one has refuted it."

As one involved in that study (I'm CL4Syr), I can boast that this study (embodied in TWO reports) is not perfect but actually pretty damn amazing. The material writes itself with the unfolding of reality, which is apparently pretty damn amazing - we're just there to transcribe it. Improvements can and have been made, but it remains the definitive work on the E. Ghouta volcano rocket attack. 

A few people have disputed it, some of them many times, in many ways. But, although they pretend otherwise, they've disputed it very poorly and no one has come close to refuting the study. 

Here at this blog I assessed the initial efforts to discredit it (general) (Prof. Scott Lucas in some detail). These were mainly irrelevant ad-hominem attacks, suggestions that we were bad people so our work was probably all wrong, or whatever. Essentially: "the findings could be true, for all we care, but these are such bad people with such dubious motives and characters - [we were called "Nazis"] - that just to spite them, you should go ahead and assume it's all wrong, or just refuse to even care. Take the risk of approving and continuing the coverup of this crime - the deliberate chemical mass-murder of several hundred Syrian citizens, including hundreds of women and children. Don't even worry how likely that risk is."

Such people are keenly aware that "Assad" and his "regime" and the people of Syria that rely on them need to be held accountable and punished further - punish them more - steal more oil & wheat, forbid rebuilding or any business interactions or any normalization, then maybe bring the war back in. To that end, guilt for as many crimes of the war as possible needs to be kept on Assad, by whatever fake news stories or backroom deals that requires, - especially as the alternative blame would tend to fall on foreign-backed "opposition" fighters and terrorists. Why complicate that imperative with any size a question? 

And a question the size we offer ... these people don't want that in anyone's mind, nor any of its associated details. Discussing the evidence just breathes life into it. Better to embargo the evidence into silence, or you could say better to "suffocate the truth," Put it in a bag, perhaps mark it "Nazi," or something to that effect, and throw it in the river.

A few started to challenge the actual evidence early on (see general post), but not very well, considering the many supporting layers of it in our study. German (I think) regime-change activist Kostja Marschke is an extra-prolific critic who does engage the primary evidence, and at least pretends this is what drives him to the familiar blanket derision. His opinions don't matter much, but some. He's no slouch when it comes to declaring fraud over our work, even including a few valid questions raised along with dozens of bogus ones, with a pretty obvious gatekeeper kind of agenda. 

But his efforts have offered more passed tests than we've gotten from everyone else combined, and merited a whole post already, besides mentions in the first debunks post, and now this post as well. Technically, he's been at it for years. Just recently, he's raised several bogus points based on imagining hard facts from unclear pixelated satellite views (grass where there should be concrete, no grass where there should be), reading some 3D models too literally and pretending these win some conflicts with the cases they're made to illustrate, not to replace, and other stupid tricks to invent all kinds of supposed fatal flaws. 

He never stops to re-assess the balance of evidence in light of each debunk, pretending there never was any evidence except the one point he pretends to disprove at the moment, and maybe for comparison, a few others he remembers casually chuckling over. He'll say our "entire theory relies on" X which he finds wrong. And it also relies solely on Y, and on Z, he says at other times, and separately it relies totally on AA, BB, CC, and so on. Each basis is clearly and incredibly wrong, he says, with frequent typed indications of laughter. He makes a repeated show of kicking each solitary support out from under us, always supposedly knocking us down, when we've supposedly been down from blow 1. We should be ground deep into the dirt by now, to hear Kostja boast. Yet we remain worth all the effort to pretend, over and over, to have finally disrupted our actual, upright position.

Aaron Maté - in another recent reminder -  had noted how "No one has refuted" our study. Marschke replied that it is "one of the most laughable "studies" ever produced" and essentially refutes itself. This baseless hyperbole is typical of his whole performance. The proof, as they say, is in the pudding.

Two Top Reasons

Marschke selected just 2 favorite arguments to show Aaron's readers how "laughable" our work is:

"1) The evidence for the field being "insurgent-controlled" is that a tank "cautiously" moved in an allegedly surrounding area 15 months after the attack. That's it, that's the entirety of the "evidence" for that claim." (post)

Also: "This is exactly why I've blocked Kobs: He's a liar. Look at his reply to my rebuttal: He just simply lies about the date of the tank video (The only "evidence" from his "study" supposedly showing opposition control). Not disclosed in the "study" either, by the way."

There is no reason to "disclose" any "lie" about the video date. Co-author Michael Kobs said in a separate tweet that the video in question (from ANNA News) is from "August 24, 2013." I've said the same on a few occasions, following his lead on a point I hadn't followed. That was wrong, but we honestly misunderstood co-author Chris Kabusk's explanation, as accurately put in the report, citing a relevant date wrongly. 

The video was posted about a year after the attack and might be recent or older - it compiles images of a whole military campaign to reclaim the wider area, running perhaps for months. But it shows damage to a certain building that, Kabusk decided and no one has disputed, did not exist yet in the August 23 Google Earth satellite view. So the video is from August 24, 2013 OR LATER, and perhaps months later. Someone more read-up on the course of the fighting could offer a decent guess for when, but it's not a pressing issue.

The salient point is the Syrian Arab Army was shooting towards this field from the north, as if opposition militants controlled the area, at some point at least 3 days after the chemical attack. That stands as evidence for opposition control on 21 August, although a longer time span would allow for possible back-and forth where the SAA - other details permitting - could have been in control of this field on the 21st.  

Marschke suggests regime troops might have had control or access on the night of the attack - but of course this field had nothing to do with the attack (right?), so ...  it just shows how wrong we are to make such a claim based on one video of unclear date. 

But it was never the only evidence. Michael and I got sloppy with this point partly because it was never major or central like Marschke pretends. It was just a bonus illustration of the well-informed and generally-agreed situation that Marschke is pretty well alone in questioning. The fact that he doesn't seem to realize that makes me feel I really wasted too much time on this poser.

Michael replied: "I love such attacks from behind a block. But your claim is BS. For eight years, hordes of investigators (including Eliot Higgins) have investigated the Ghouta attack, but you're the first to question the line of demarcation. Do you have any valid reason for this?" I think Kostja un-blocked Michael then - some debate ensued. Michael showed Charles Wood's 2014 map as used in both our reports and available at A Closer Look on Syria, but with approximate launch spot added. 

This map was based on numerous primary sources (published maps, reports, videos (notably by ANNA News), satellite imagery). As Wood explained for my report: “Contact lines are indications based on insurgent and ANNA videos and my training in basic infantry tactics. Narrow contact lines between Police College and Qaboun, and Syronics and Qaboun are an estimate based on no reported serious damage to either institution.”

The Eliot Higgins/Bellingcat take was based on similar study of the same open-source evidence, combined it on the map in almost totally the same exact way. Bellingcat excludes this field from their green island of government control in exactly the same way Wood's map did. 
Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Rocket Man: Some Government-Held Firing Spot or Other (libyancivilwar.blogspot.com)

The only real difference between these maps is in the upper part of black-dash area on Wood's map. This had tanks present on 23 August (Google Earth satellite view), likely a new development amid a fast-moving offensive that only started on the 20th. Bellingcat maps assume a presence here already on the 21st while Wood and I doubt it, although it is fairly possible, and likely enough in my opinion. 

That minor dispute is only somewhat near our field in question. Neither map includes the field in question as government-held. This isn't gospel or certain fact, but a well-informed guess, with the disputed ANNA video just going to support that this field was rebel-held that night, and for some time after, probably continuously.

This "entirety of the evidence" claim is so stupid and easy to disprove I suspect it's no conscious deception - Marschke just wasn't paying good attention. He saw the note that this was the only video we had so close to the field itself, took it to that to mean it was the only evidence there was regarding the local control situation. He should know better by now, if he knows this case like he pretends to, after years of supposedly disproving us over it. 

"2) The methodology on how the trajectories were "measured" by the study is laughable, too. Investigators on the ground couldn't measure the impact direction, but Kobs tried to do it using the size of bricks. Lol." https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1688992180164001793

When I asked what he meant by "couldn't measure" - he meant the 2 sites out of 3 they visited in E. Ghouta but did no measure for, finding it "pointless," as he put it - not exactly impossible. https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1692495054252728478 

They actually said the other 2 sites “do not present physical characteristics allowing a successful study of the trajectories followed by the rockets involved, due to the configuration of the impact places."” We found one impact to an apartment wall and balcony extremely vague, but the other on a rooftop more useful, pointing northwest - and the investigators apparently agreed somewhat, citing it to Joby Warrick as if they had used it to find the northwest firing area.  https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2013_553.pdf

The Syrians Executed the Most Deadly Chemical Weapons Attack in Generations—With U.N. Inspectors There (newsweek.com)

But this brick issue refers to the garden wall impact investigators never even looked at (above, Wall 2, in magenta). Using a brick as a handy measure works fine when you're looking at basic proportions to set a basic angle for mapping purposes. The rocket impact in the ground is about 3 bricks right of where the rocket punched through the wall, and about 1.8 bricks out from the wall. The actual brick size doesn't matter - the proportion is roughly 3 to 1.8 (also = 5:3) of whatever unit. 

People on the ground could do it better, but no one did, so this is the best we can do (Michael's work, and I follow and agree). It's not exact, but pretty good - a visual reading that sets an approximate angle that, like the others, points back roughly to the same field. Marschke doesn't even explicitly challenge the measure itself, or venture his own measure or method, Is it more like a 2:1 angle? Determined how? He doesn't care. It points to "hold Assad accountable" and it's politically biased and "insane" to look for yourself and find any differently. 

He: "Just listen to yourself with your 1.8 bricks as measurement. Listen to yourself and consider what a person who isn't incredibly politically motivated would think about this. It might explain your disagreements with [UN investigator Åke] Sellström."

Me: "Any person who wants to form a basic idea of what happened. What's wrong about that? I'm s'posed to feel shame or something? F off w/such efforts. Shame. my dude." 

He: "Any person who would want a "basic" idea" about what happened would start making insane measurements based on bricks?" He just couldn't explain what's actually insane about using a handy measurement unit to establish a basic proportional angle. He apparently doesn't even understand what we did here or how hollow his effort was. He just took another random chance to call us biased and insane. 

"Disagreements with Sellström"

On the side with the above, another thread emerged - my "disagreements with Sellstrom." Pressed to specify, Marschke explained: "You haven't noticed how your entire theory relies on Sellström being wrong about both measured impact angles"

No ... it INCLUDES the UN-OPCW report being wrong about the one. The other doesn't matter. Maybe he thinks we argue the D30 howitzer was firing on Moadamiyah, and that both fronts of attack were from this one field. I'm not sure where he heard that, as we did discuss it some, but I don't see where it made it into the final collective report, and it sure isn't in my side report. I for one never agreed to this point, but then I didn't follow the evidence closely. Maybe "Sellstrom" was wrong about that angle and maybe it was fired from here. Marschke says "The D-30 doesn't support the caliber used in Moadamiyah," so not if he's correct. I really don't know and don't greatly care. My own take on our theory has no reliance or opinion on this point. 

Anyway, our theory does include "Sellström" being wrong about the site 4 angle, and we definitely noticed that. We also noticed that he just signed off on it. The OPCW's representative, Mr. Scott Cairns, is a more likely source for the measurement and/or reporting of the rocket angle. And for what it's worth, Marschke - once adequately pressed - has to agree that this reading IS wrong after all. Did Marschke ever notice that his theory relies on "Sellström being wrong" about the same angle?

Me: "No more talk until after you've given some answer to the 8-degrees-blind-trust question. Review my latest tweets as needed. Otherwise, you've become completely pointless to me." 


I've asked him several times to affirm or refute this alleged reading or to comment on his ally Eliot Higgins doing both. Until this point, Marschke had ignored the requests to press his urgent interrogation about a supposed shadow or something.

begin reply: "...As for your question: I don't think that angle is either 8° or 39°." 

That's something I can my teeth into, finally. He thinks everyone was wrong until he had his layman's look. How clever! He gets to maintain we're wrong, even as he admits so was the UN-OPCW investigation - or at least he agrees that the printed and visible angles clearly do not match. Marschke hesitated for a while, but finally agreed his theory also includes Sellström being wrong. It's OK for him, he assumes, because he's still blaming "Assad" like good people do. He doesn't see a "conspiracy" to frame Assad. And neither do we, for sure. We admit it might be some coincidence in which they published an angle 30 degrees wrong that, intersected with their other angle, indicated a regime-controlled artillery base many sources like HRW and NYT pushed at the attack origin. It was a handy political effect, but possibly achieved on accident.

Kostja Marschke is not the first regime-changer to grudgingly or mutably acknowledge the fact of this angle mismatch. As related at Rocket Man: Just Blindly Trust the "UN Azimuth", Bellingcat founder Eliot Higgins did as much in at least two comments from January, 2014, having seen all the images and some views of a quality 3D model produced by Chris Kabusk: "the UN azimuth for one of the rockets doesn't match the 3D model on those maps, seems 50 degrees off to the north." - "Based off the geolocated munitions the point of origin is from the north (even the UN one they said was from the NW)"

By September, Bellingcat was in effect and, perhaps coincidentally, Higgins had changed his tune. He seemed to be in basic agreement with Kabusk, until he noted this new estimate added to his emerging picture of NW origins, in fact near the site of an August 24 sarin attack on SAA troops - as the likely spot we identified in 2021 is. This had to be sitting poorly with Higgins. The overall angle, as Chris put it, is "like UN's presumed flight path but off a bit and 1.5-2.5km ranges." Higgins replied incredulously: "You still think the wall Volcano was measured wrong by the UN?" He was perplexed, if not appalled, to hear the real angles described as "off a bit" from what the trusted "UN" had reported. It's as if the reading had been shown correct somewhere since January, but that can hardly be. Higgins was insisting on deference to something he knew to be false. He would later accept praise from others for "replicating" the UN-OPCW finding with his open-source work that always pointed more to the north. And it was never very good - most of the good parts were copied from Kabusk (and 'til recently containing one of his errors we've since corrected).

Ok, back to Marschke. He gave some explanation for his disgreement with Sellstrom and everyone. 

"Why do I think that? The shadow of the rocket...is at an [angle] > 90 degrees relative to the wall. As a layman, [I would] think the sun would've had to come from an almost orthogonal direction relative to the rocket to achieve that, given how small the shadows of the inspectors are. Where did the sun come from, though?"

"That's tough to say, given that we don't have the [exact] time the video was taken. But there's a clue: We can see the inspectors take a soil sample a few seconds later. Only two soil samples from the report match that, taken at 14:34 and 14:38, respectively."

"That also explains why there's not much of a shadow from the wall.

It also passes my eye test better than your angle which, needless to say, is quite clownishky [sic] measured."

"Now, does that say definitely where the rockets come from? No." 

He was too responsible to specify an area or direction, of course, based on such limited information. But what WOULD his angle say? I read him wrong in haste, thinking he saw the rocket as roughly perpendicular to the wall like its shadow was. I had some laughs about that, then read it more carefully. ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory - Global Radiation and Aerosols (noaa.gov) gives me, for August 24 at 2:34 PM a reverse azimuth (shadow angle on flat earth) about 27 degrees clockwise from north, or 20 deg clockwise from perpendicular with the wall. Orthogonal = at a right angle. A rocket orthogonal to that sunlight would be about 20 deg. from parallel. OK. I'm not sure how he reasoned it out, but that's actually not terrible. Not 8 or 39, but something like 20, right in between - just different enough to say no one got it right until Kostja had his look. Not even the trusted UN-OPCW inspectors.

Our "clownish way" - "needless to say" - includes now at least 4 ways total, in broad agreement. Others had read higher, partly from shadow illusions and a sense of "almost perpendicular" - 50-75°. Eliot Higgins saw it off by about 50° from the UN angle, so around 58°, similar to WhoGhouta, Richard Lloyd, and Chris Kabusk. That was based partly on Kabusk's model (see above the Jan. 2014 tweets). He's one of us on the 2021 study, so that's one of our 4 methods - the fanciest, but not the best (dark blue wedge w/Eliot's take down the middle in yellow). I did a rough visual study (see here) that said it was definitely less than 48°, with no clear bottom (43-48 shown here) - it seemed everyone else had read it a bit high. Later (at least from my end) Michael's flight-line view got 38°, and I had to be a butt and refine it to 38.5 rounded to 39 in my side-report, with a fair +/- of one degree. 

That's 3 ways. Just now I tried another method that occurred to me. The tail end is visible at a 45-ish angle. With the wall running basically ahead, the circular tail would appear at a 2:1 vertical-horizontal ratio at a proper 45° angle and 1:1 ratio if parallel and seen from behind. 1.8:1 as seen is 1/5 of the way between those, so I reason 9°. less than a 45, or around 36 degrees. Exact 3D details maybe notwithstanding, that's probably close to the facts, and very close to the excellent measure we still go by. Again, the "precise" measurement endorsed by the trusted UN-OPCW was about EIGHT degrees from parallel. We'd see that rocket almost entirely from behind.




Note this isn't a vertical object, ground not level - shadow cast too complex for me to read. Here's a modeling Michael did including the rocket angle we estimate and the angle of sun at the time, plus his estimate for mound shape, all seeming to explain the video view quite well. This might help understand why the "perpendicular shadow" is a misleading illusion.


We have 4 different ways to say the angle is 55-60, ~45, 38/39, or ~36. That's a wide spread, but this totally wins over a single quick estimate that lets Kostja Marschke pretend he's the first one to ever get it kind of right. This is, as I said, vague, disingenuous, and very poser-ish. I could ask Marschke to "Just listen to yourself with your "rocket is kind of at a right angle to the sun" and consider what person who isn't incredibly politically motivated would think about this. It might explain your disagreement with Sellström and everybody else." His theory relies on Sellström being wrong and, as he had just explained, such disagreements might be motivated by the same extreme political bias that has one undertaking crude measurements and making insanely bold claims. Huh. He might be onto something after all.

But he has a solution where the OPCW got it right and only Chris. Michael and I - along with Eliot Higgins, Richard Lloyd and WhoGhouta - got it wrong. Or actually, we got it right enough or not and it doesn't matter - the original angle was just as reported, and simply never seen. It's an article of faith.  

As I follow, he suggests the inspectors must've measured 105/285° "precisely" with "no form of lateral bending." first, then pulled the rocket aside, leaving it aligned 30° different than before - or he thinks more like 12° - and coincidentally pointing to the same field 7 other rockets point to - or he thinks pointing to a different spot, when the rest all point ... wherever we don't say they do. And then all known images were taken after that strange manipulation - the original correct angle Kostja proposes was never seen. It's mythical. And the photos and videos where it's 30° different, after whatever change ... it still shows no form of lateral bending nor any sign I've noticed of the engine having been pulled from its original angle.

That sounds plain absurd, but he had, in fact, just imagined this as a way around the whole problem. 

"The inspectors could've moved the rocket after measuring the azimuth, for example, to inspect the side of the warhead. That renders everything you and I said moot anyway." https://twitter.com/KostjaMarschke/status/1692581076395262063

It's a very imaginative solution that probably sounds soothing to his ears - it's all "moot", like it was just a dream. I bet he'll settle on it as the answer to this whole problem. Inspectors coincidentally MADE the tube wind up pointing to that field 2km away, even as 7 other rockets also point there. Oh, and the 7 others must've been moved around too, coincidentally to point back to the same spot, rather than to their actual origin(s), which ... 

He'll decided that the firing spot can never be known. It's way too complex and stuff, and will remain a mystery where faith alone matters. Kostja Marschke knows what good people should believe, and how that belief should "moot" the facts of the 3D world. Of course, we inhabit the 3D world, and are somehow interconnected with everyone else in it, and also with some hundreds of Syrian civilians who no longer inhabit it, after this not-so-mysterious crime 10 years and 10 days ago claimed their lives. 

Done Talking

Me: "bump on this as more interesting. @KostjaMarschke  what angle were you thinking, when you decided to question Sellstrom & everyone? 8 deg. from parallel would show the tail end at 1.2:1 ratio, and we see 1.8:1, = ~36 deg. or roughly what we got looking right down the tube (38/39)"

Marschke: "Nope, no more talk until we're done with the field."

We would never be done with the field until at least one of us stopped talking, and I was already just about ready to quit the game anyway. So I replied:

"Well I'm done with that, so we're done. I have you at something vague and disingenuous where you're the first person to get it right, but not specified, where the shadows and time mattered somehow, and you were apparently clueless. I'm good w/that." (I figured out the best reading, above, after that comment.)

He: "Of course you're done with that" because he was totally winning, listing absurdities in our work he claimed to have proven. 

Me: "yep, your big ol' list I finally got bored with. Go play with that."

He: "Of course, you're not out of arguments, you're just "bored"."

Me: "just sick of it, for a bit before that ultimatum. I know it could go on forever and you'll always "win." Let's just cut to it. You "win" as always."