Ghouta 2013 reports: Scott Lucas Debunk Non-Efforts

Adam Larson

July 13, 2020 (rough, incomplete)

<< Ghouta 2013 Reports 

Compared to the first debunk efforts, this part 2 includes a far less substantive response: one baseless, a priori dismissal, out of 11 people and a group that were asked. And just look who it comes from...

1) Approach 1: Ignore the report

1.1) War crime denier, pants on fire

These rare words on our reports start from Aaron Maté's tweets of June 19 that started: 

"Well before OPCW's Douma cover-up, allegations of Syrian gov't chemical attacks made no sense. False-flags by sectarian death squad "rebels" did." 

Looking for mainstream media supports - and there aren't very many - he reaches for the generally credible veteran investigative reporter Seymour Hersh. "In Ghouta 2013, Sy Hersh exposed that US intel knew the "rebels" did it. A new open-source study argues how:" https://rootclaim-media.s3.amazonaws.com/syria2013evidence.pdf

Aaron added links to Hersh's reporting on the attack at the London Review of Books (Whose sarin? - The red line and the rat line) and said "Obama later confirmed Hersh when he recalled that the US intel on Ghouta was not "slam dunk" -- a deliberate choice of words." (https://theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/)

Professor Scott Lucas responded June 19 : 

"Even by @AaronJMate's low standards, this is a dumpster fire of War Crimes denial.

1. Hersh was discredited, even before publication by misguided @LRB, for his poor sourcing, false claims, & conspiracy theory --- Which is why  @NYBooks  & others rejected piece

2. More dissection of Hersh's misinfo on #Syria sarin attack: https://eaworldview.com/2014/04/syria-special-dissecting-hershs-insurgents-chemical-weapons-attacks-sequel/ 

3. Only a buffoon would say "#Obama...confirmed Hersh" that #EastGhouta was "false flag"

#Obama said there was substantial evidence of #Assad regime responsibility 

3. What #Obama says in April 2016 is that as, of August 31, 2013, #Assad responsibility for #EastGhouta sarin attack had not been 100% established

That's 1 reason why he emphasized need for UN inspections, which were being hindered by Assad regime

And finally "4. Beyond @AaronJMate's disinfo, what is interesting is his move from denier of #Syria chemical attacks to position that chemical attacks were "false flags" by anti-#Assad forces"

In other words, he's now aligned w Assad regime, #Russia State, & fringe conspiracy theorists.

1.2) Conflicts of Interest 

First, understand a bit about Scott Lucas. Current Twitter bio: professor of American studies at the University of Birmingham, Founder @EA_WorldView . Co-Founder @AmericaUnfltrd / @Dive_Politics . Prof Emeritus @UniBirmingham . Associate, @Clinton_InstUCD . Political analyst on TV and radio. 

His strongly interventionist and propagandistic EA Worldview is a spin-off of Enduring America (The Guardian still notes Lucas is the "founder of the Enduring America website on US politics and foreign policy"). Originally, as I recall it seeming, Enduring America was a post-9/11 pro-war site with the Pentagon as its logo. A writer at the old EA, James Miller, had in 2013/14 denied the genocidal Adra Massacre by Jaysh al-Islam and Al-Qaeda franchise Jabhat al-Nusra. For that I said Miller could endure my urine. 

And at one point, Enduring America's founder prof. Lucas would also be a scholar affiliated with a Turkey-based Toran Center, which was co-directed by Majdi Nema, the former spokesman for and and militant with the same Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jaysh al-Islam, whose massacres and crimes Lucas denies as possible to the present day (see Douma, Academics and Mass-Murder Coverup). In fact, one of those is under immediate discussion - August 21, 2013 in Eastern Ghouta. See these infographics, and some further details below.

And here's an excerpt from my 2nd report Lucas and the rest have even less to say about, on the motive and capabilities of Jaysh al-Islam (then called Liwa al-Islam),. From section 4.2.3 "What Does Nema Know?"

It’s not exactly clear who would be involved in something as huge as possibilities 3 or 4, but to launch 

these rockets in the identified area, they would include militants that were part of - or at least allied with - Liwa al-Islam (LI). In tacit partnership with Al-Qaeda franchise Jabhat al-Nusra, LI had by mid-2013 positioned themselves to lead any march on Damascus, like if the 2011 Libya scenario were repeated. Therefore, it is they who arguably stood the most to gain from Obama’s “red line” being crossed like it was on August 21 2013.

And it is their leader Zahran Alloush (below, 2nd from right) who was excited, on August 13, that "the final steps in preparing a new surprise for the regime are about to be completed.” He was reportedly at a meeting of opposition forces in Turkey, which was held in Antakya, on August 13-14, as separately reported by Yosef Bodansky. He added that regional commanders were briefed there on “a war-changing development” which was “imminent” and would “lead to a U.S.-led bombing of Syria” and an “escalation of the fighting.” Bodansky heard that prediction came from senior commanders after a higher-level meeting in Istanbul, and that increased weapon shipments followed.

These reports could be a mix of truth, coincidence, and even fake news, and this part is just imagined; for all we know, this Istanbul meeting was real and discussed a bold prediction by commander Alloush,“a tip from his mole” that Assad was planning a huge sarin attack around the 21st likely to kill over 1,000. Consider that UN-OPCW inspectors were set to arrive 4-5 days later, and a week later came a surprise for some: that red line was crossed in a truly massive and undeniable way with hundreds dead and sarin quickly “confirmed” by those inspectors. U.S.-led military intervention was seriously threatened for the first time, and only averted under extraordinary circumstances.

LI had serious financial resources and enjoyed friendly relations with Jabhat al-Nusra, who were reportedly producing sarin right there in E. Ghouta. Therefore, Liwa al-Islam controlled both the area the sarin was made in and the spot the sarin rockets were seemingly fired from. It is Alloush’s LI who may have brazenly implicated themselves in a video launching that very attack. And it is they who have some 3,000-5,000 largely civilian prisoners left unaccounted-for.

It is therefore ironic that France already has a possible suspect in custody, even as they are to consider new punishments against Damascus over this crime.

And Scott Lucas in a sense works for that very suspect, or did. Majdi Nema's arrest likely ended that relationship, if nothing else before or after did. Operations may continue, but Toran Center activity on Facebook stopped soon after January 16, 2020, just before his arrest, and their Twitter account does about the same. And to be fair, it's not clear the Toran center ever did much. What's interesting is how Prof. Lucas was willing to be a part of it.

1.3) Assessing the Response

Lucas does have a point in his response to Aaron Maté, limited as it is. We can't be sure what Obama knew and thought, but he probably didn't mean to confirm Hersh's claims or implications, per se. That would mean admitting his "red line" threat/offer had sparked a terrorist massacre of innocents, which he nearly bombed a sovereign nation for. He would not likely admit to that ever. However if he knew the evidence was for Assad's guilt was super-weak and may fall apart some day, he might wisely allow for an 'outside chance' he was wrong. And the more we learn, the more it seems he should have had major doubts.

But Lucas makes it sound like Obama was about 99% sure he did not enable a mass murder, carried out by Prof. Lucas' Toran-AQ buddies. He makes it sounds like only Assad supposedly preventing inspection of ... something ... kept Obama from snagging that last one percent of certainty. And so it must that Assad did it, and everything to the contrary (including our forensic analysis - which again he didn't even address) must be wrong. 

I didn't review the EA Worldview piece and I don't know offhand all the claims Hersh made in his Ghouta articles, or how they all panned out. I've seen some claims from his intelligence sources fail to even make sense (notably re:Khan Sheikhoun, 2017), and don't take any of it as gospel. But I don't just toss it aside either. One detail that still seems possibly relevant is the Iraqi chemist Hersh heard about, making sarin for Jabhat Al-Nusra in Eastern Ghouta, in mid-2013. I asked if that specific claim was specifically debunked, or "do we dismiss that possibility in a baby-bathwater sense?" He didn't answer. I don't think it's been debunked, and it might well be true. That might've been Ziyad Tariq Ahmad's sarin the inspectors found with the unique "chemical fingerprint." See Whose Hexamine? 

The first use of this particular sarin was against Syrian Arab Army troops and mostly Shia civilians in Khan al-Assal, Aleppo, on March 19, 2013, just a few days after opposition forces had been driven out of the town. One soldier and 19 civilians were killed, but Jabhat al-Nusra was blamed, and it took a long time for Western powers to realize or admit that was sarin (as Syria and Russia had suspected or claimed from the start) When they finally checked the impurities that had the Russians calling it "cottage industry" stuff, these signs were known. They'd been confirmed in other cases including another sarin attack on SAA troops in Jobar on August 24, 3 days after the Ghouta sarin attack. And it happened about 400 meters from the opposition-controlled site from which - as we just proved - the sarin rockets were fired 3 days earlier. (see here or my new report for some details) And of course the sarin in the infamous 12 volcanos used to kill 1,000+ also matched the stuff used in Khan al-Assal and Jobar. Must be the regime! 

The same stuff had already turned up in Saraqeb at least, but after Ghouta failed to elicit a regime-change war that might let Jaysh al-Islam seize power in Damascus, there was a long and telling pause in its use. Finally that same telltale sarin would resurface in Al-Nusra administered al-Latiminah and Khan Sheikhoun in 2017, so "Assad" could find out if Trump had his own "Red Line." 

Having learned he did, almost exactly a year later on April 7, 2018, the same sarin was supposed to turn up in Douma, where Jaysh al-Islam was facing complete defeat even in their last bastion. Just before their inevitable surrender and the release of ~200 largely-civilian prisoners (out of an estimated 3,500-5,000 they once had) "Assad" attacked again. 35 piled bodies were found a few floors below a manually placed chlorine cylinder, as some kind of advance on early claims of 180-200 killed by sarin. Prof. Lucas seemed especially sure of that: to Turkish TRT World April 24, 2018 he said "From the multi-sources, I have Doctors, activists, Citizen Journalists there was a stronger agent used, this was not just chlorine used in Douma." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYOLXpzj0vw (props to Michael Martin). He doesn't mention any terrorist sources, but it's true that many others made claims pointing that way, including US officials saying they had sarin-positive urine samples. But something went wrong and it never did get released to be found at the only place where (it's now claimed) a significant number of people died. Only chlorine was found, and that at disputed levels, and only 43 died. 

Okay ... Lucas had no answer to the most relevant question over his general non-answer. He also had no word at all on the new study that really adds and "explains how" in fact the foreign-backed terrorists - most likely the same ones Lucas is affiliated with - were responsible (as they would be in Douma, 2018 and as they were in Adra, 2013, and beyond). He could only nitpick the supporting sources.

2) Approach 2: say random bad things about the report 

2.1) The little oxygen he could spare for our "scam"

Rootclaim tweet June 18 linked to the report and summary, asking "Does anyone have a response or rebuttal?" This was one of several bulk alerts sent out, addressed to these 12 accounts, mainly promoters of the establishment narratives on Syria:  

@bellingcat Bellingcat, the western-funded open-source investigators famously founded by...

@EliotHiggins Eliot Higgins, who would say in 2018: "The presence of hexamine at every confirmed Sarin attack shows the hexamine is part of the Syrian government’s manufacturing process."  

@Brian_Whit Brian Whitaker: Journalist, former Middle East editor of the Guardian newspaper. Author of 'Arabs Without God: Atheism and Freedom of Belief in the Middle East'. Occasional expert expert on the OPCW coverup scandal for Democracy Now, doxxer of whistleblowers at the heart of the scandal, Bellingcat ally  

@ChrisDYork Chris York Journalist/Студент. Formerly senior editor and reporter @HuffPostUK. Formerly there he engaged in almost insanely frequent attacks on independent analysis, especially the Working Group on Syria, Propaganda and Media

@Josiensor Josie Ensor US Correspondent @Telegraph . Previously in the Middle East. Recipient of Marie Colvin Award. Associate Fellow at @ICSR_Centre

@_RichardHall Richard Hall British journalist covering America for @Independent after a long stint in Beirut. Formerly with @AFP and @TheWorld

@KreaseChan Kristyan Benedict Amnesty International UK Campaigns Manager: Crisis & Tactical, Syria. 

@DanKaszeta - Dan Kaszeta: US Secret Service, supposed chemical weapons expert, Bellincat ally, 2nd person (after OPCW insider JP Zanders) to assert w/roughly zero reason that Syria used hexamine in its sarin production, implicating them for the many attacks where that was found, including Ghouta.

@tobiaschneider - Tobias Schneider: Peace & Security ∙ Research Fellow at @GPPi ∙ Edit @SyriaContext ∙ @SAISStrat alum

@gregkoblentz Gregory Koblentz Associate Professor and Director of Biodefense Graduate Program in the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. supposed chemical weapons expert, Bellingcat ally

@MsJulieLenarz Director of Social Media at American Jewish Committee @AJCGlobal . Background in Islamist extremism and counter-terrorism. 

AND of special note is @ScottLucas_EA: Like the rest, he had nothing to say at first. But then a "Lex Brody" popped in 5 days later to note the complete lack of reply from all 12 addressed accounts. A gif declared it was so quiet you could "here a cricket fart in here." Lucas alone finally replied, to finally address the report itself: 

"12 accounts realized that this is a scam operation, combining grift and disinformation." 

LB: So you take time to call it a scam operation, but you can't include one link that discredits this analysis.

SL: There's no analysis to discredit and I don't intend to give any more oxygen for scammers to breathe. If you're interested in actual information, (spam-links own site)

That's all he had to say. No one else spoke up, except for Dan Kaszeta who had popped in to reply to Lex Brody in the middle of that exchange: 

Lex didn't seem sure either, but it's because he was tagged in by Rootclaim. And that was because ... well, I'm not sure exactly why, but again, Kaszeta was the second person (after OPCW insider JP Zanders) to assert with roughly zero reason that Syria used hexamine in its sarin production, implicating them for the many attacks where that was found, including Ghouta. He first told this to Eliot Higgins, and then it was picked up by the NEW YORK TIMES, and remains influential in convincing the masses of the establishment's regime-change line. His disinformation here has essentially been proven wrong. But he can't be bothered about it now. 

2.2) Follow-up? Nope.

I was curious how they had come to this realization. The only specific I've seen to declare "disinformation" was its being called "recycled disinformation" by a few people. That was due to a flawed impression of "recycling," caused by poor reading comprehension on the part of wheel-spinning KJohnson, and "disinformation" slapped on for no valid reason whatsoever. (see debunks post 1 - Saar meant what he had just said in our discussion in March was based on seeing Michael's 2020 report just then, and initially disagreeing with major points - he never said that Rootclaim's analysis from 2017 was based on Michael's 2020 report, because that's not true and makes no sense)

As I formalized my response to Lucas et al. in later tweets 

On "Grift": maybe Rootclaim is meant to [be] developed and sold, if that makes sense (?). If so, using flawed "disinformation" to corroborate their method would be unwise. Either way my interest is in the claim of "disinformation." ...

That takes MISinformation + deceptive intent. While the latter is SUGGESTED (the lies are for "grift"), it's not really shown, and - more to the point - the information has never been shown to be amiss in the first place, and it's seeming like it never will be.

My challenge to Lucas and the other 11 - completely unanswered.

Of course @ScottLucas_EA sees no "analysis" in our Ghouta reports - just "a scam operation, combining grift and disinformation." Nevermind the forensic analysis he can't address, can he even spare a breathe to explain that claim? Free platform ->

Of course he rejected that. Re-linking the report and Lucas' review I asked the other 11 accounts if they had anything to add (actually sent only 7/10 ): "a last call for any words before I add to my debunks post"  - "who realized what & how?" - "So far Prof. Lucas is here, basically defending his boss' boss. He's spoken for the rest of you. Anything to add?"

He was talking about the detailed, irrefutable research of people he generally accuses of dishonesty and distant loyalty to Bashar al-Assad, "deniers" of war crimes, detestable people. He says it's wrong and a con. Pointing to his gross conflict of interest and his total lack of reason to dismiss our work, I again asked the others. And they generally seemed happy with letting his few words speak for them. They're of roughly the same mind as  this disinformation-spewing "academic" just 2 people removed from the probable mastermind of the chemical massacre he insists on denying. Is that a good mind to be like? 

They all have stuck with a silent treatment of tacit denial - so far. But I think things will change on that account, and this story won't be so ignorable for much longer. There will surely be a part 3 - at least - in this series on debunk attempts, slurs, and the like. Stay tuned, or remember to tune back in.