April 24, 2022
(rough, incomplete)
updates 4/29, 5/4, 5/15
Introduction: Fragmentation Denied
One key plank in the idea of a singular, Russian-authored "Bucha Massacre" is to insist people were gunned down at close range - and far worse - by occupying Russian forces. No one was killed by arbitrary artillery shelling from outside the area, because ... why would the Russians shell an area they controlled? To this end, anything that could be a bullet hole OR a shrapnel puncture from an exploding mortar shell MUST be the former - if anyone has their hands tied and seems executed, everyone was executed, or gunned down - and it can only be done by the Russians, because the Russians occupied every inch of Bucha right to March 31, or something to that effect... or so we presume?
There are people found in Bucha who clearly were executed up-close by some pretty evil people. Some were tortured, dismembered, and more. Just in the stretch of Yablunska street we first saw littered with crumpled, gray-faced corpses, BBC reported: "An AFP news agency reporter in Bucha, near Kyiv, counted at least 20 bodies. At least one man had his hands tied." But it seems 19 of them did NOT have their hands tied. "A Ukrainian official told AFP the dead men could have been killed in a bombardment or shot by Russian soldiers, and police would investigate. But the town's mayor, Anatoly Fedoruk, told AFP by phone that all of the 20 dead had been shot in the back of the head. He added that other bodies still lay inside the wrecks of cars destroyed by shelling," and were presumably killed by that shelling. But no one outside a car ever was?
Igor Kossov, Kyiv Independent, 4/22 has a bit more nuance from Mayor Fedoruk: "The Russians had a citywide shooting spree in Bucha. According to Fedoruk, over 80% of the bodies have bullet wounds, largely in the head and torso. “If in Irpin (a city next to Bucha) people died from fragments caused by shelling and mortars, in addition to being shot, then in Bucha people were mainly just shot,” Taras Vyazovchenko, a city council member, told the Kyiv Independent. “There are practically no accidental hits among the victims.” Why would a Russian artillery strike on civilians be an "accident"?
Well that's 10 large fires in less than a month - plus however many small ones - mortar and rocket strikes that didn't start fires - like 6 of the 7 apparent mortar strikes we'll examine below (A van at least was seemingly ignited in one case) ... a lot remains possible there.
And for what it's worth, there's at least one place where the evidence tells another story - the same stretch of Yablunska street with about 20 bodies. I've endorsed Petri Krohn's nickname for this place: "mortar alley," in the vein of Bosnia's infamous "sniper alley."
NPR cites Dymtro Andriv, a Ukrainian National Police spokesperson saying of other massacre victims in Bucha: "We know they were killed by gunfire, because there are many bullet wounds. Then somebody tried to hide this crime by burning the bodies." Because of what Andriv said, we should wonder if maybe they didn't die from shooting. In fact, he was referring to the bodies of 6, said to include a family of 4, some of them incomplete or fragmentary, charred to anonymity at a site presumably different from the site attack they wanted to hide. (It's been geolocated near the eastern edge of town, and is not part of the study below).
Now if these folks were killed by shelling in a car as they tried to evacuate ahead of Kiev's reconquest, for example, they'd be torn up and partly burned by the blast, and peppered with bullet-like shrapnel (alt. fragments - possibly sharp flethettes, but that seems to be a different story). That is, they would look about like they do. It's not so clear who would have done that, but it seems Ukrainian officials are furthering the coverup that started with relocating and torching those bodies.
There, and along mortar alley on Yablunska street, WHY do the most-informed Ukrainian sources try to the hardest to hide the truth of artillery strikes on Bucha during its occupation and/or liberation? As I'll explain below, this came from the south, mainly, where Kiev's forces were in control, and it tended to kill people in white armbands, sometimes with Russian-issue food rations - read by some as signs of sympathy or collaboration with the Russians.
Reference map, then SOME explanation. Just this took me too long.
At Least FIVE Mortar Shells Fired from the South
Note: I'm using "mortar" as shorthand for what's clearly a mortar strike in on case, seemingly is in 4-5 others, or possibly some other artillery, or even rockets. They all travel and mainly detonate in a similar and readable way, varying quite a bit in the finer details. I'm not an arms expert, but I do have some advanced amateur experience accurately reading the on the ground signs. What I think we see in 7 examined cases are one tank shelling and six munitions fired like artillery, on a parabolic arc, with basic high explosive fragmentation payloads.
There are just recently news stories about artillery attacks on Bucha with cluster bombs spreading sharp fletchettes. These reports have Mayor Fedoruk changing his tune and cliaming Russian "landmines" may have also killed people in Bucha. "You don't have to be an arms expert," he notes. (see comments) This is related but different from what we'll examine here. The new stories refer to the time Russian troops were retreating from Bucha in the last week of March, and in unclear locations, while these "mortar" strikes were a different kind, happened along the very edge most exposed to Kiev's forces, and mainly before March 19, per satellite imagery dates, with at least one dated around March 10 (and I'd say the evidence like decay supports that, or anytime in that time span - the cold really matters on that point).
Impact 1) We'll start with the first obvious mortar impact I noticed, amid the famous, first-seen bodies-in-the-street scene, at the corner of Yablunska and Peremohy lane.
It's not sure all these three were killed in this strike, but perhaps. The fragments will radiate 360 degrees, with only some of the back half angling right into the ground. They presumably fell and bled heavily right where they were hit, there's been heavy rain since then, and that's downhill. Upper right: bled from the head, probably died quickly, likely with a hip wound later chewed on by feral dogs (there's a photo to clarify that). The other was bodily damaged and bled from all over. Others may have lived and fled, but couldn't recover their comrades. If so, we've never heard their true stories.
At the bottom is a car near the third body... it might contain the blood he hasn't shed much of across the pavement. That car suffered light shelling damage, or possibly gunfire. Later it was pushed backwards from closer to that crater, by people, back off the street, and it was ransacked. Feminine clothing and such was included, but just one male body visible. Fedoruk: "other bodies still lay inside the wrecks of cars destroyed by shelling."
This car was moved and searched by on-the-ground people prior to this view of March 25, or the earliest clear view, below, given as 3/19. Another car is backed in just north of this on O. Tykoho street, doors flung open, there from first allowed views. I guess it's cropped from all these images, but it's there, maybe with the same story.
Maxar satellite view, crater and debris in red - also not true north, but closer - actual angle of fire suggested is from the southeast, some 5-10 degrees CCW from this. Actual trajectory should be pretty close to what I drew here, rotated right = just southwest. I'm not there with measuring tools, so I won't venture any precise compass bearing. I drew an exact line, but it's approximate. You need something to put in the bigger-map context.
That image adds two other apparent impacts in orange. I've been slow to correlate views and agree with others calling these more of the same. As I'll briefly explain, these too seem to originate from the south.
.png)
We see a lot of spilled oil and fire and movement of things that aren't here anymore. It was likely some AFVs parked by the barricade made of tires that was attacked, likely jamming the intersection with wreckage and hence the backyards driven through until it was cleared out. This might be a Russian front-line taken out before 3/19, allowing the control over eastern Bucha mapped then by Dr. Abdullah Manaz. That day's map shown below: red line is today (afternoon on 3/19), while purple shows what Russian forces controlled "yesterday." Bucha is fairly visible at upper left, all purple, but with a red line down the middle. This scales out to divide the city roughly in half, with mortar alley, Vodoprovidna and Vokzal'na streets, along with the entire eastern outskirts, back in Kiev's hands.
More Shelling to the West? Then, further west, we can see suggestions of more shelling from the south: another possible curb hit between this and the tailfin discussed above - closer, maybe one under a stray pipe next to the silver car - further west, a downed utility pole and charred car - a partially flattened car - another downed tree on the south side but toppled south - some further correlation to do there.
Add 5/15 - that further correlation: at image center above is a deformed car - a video I just found (by Denis Kazanskyi) has several interesting views including the tire barricade and nearby cars (2:36-3:55) this car seen up-close, partly melted in a hot fire (1:41) 120 m west of mortar strike 4 - at 203 Yablunska, headed east. The area in front of 203A was reportedly a checkpoint where Russian tanks were stationed (see comment by Andrew). The witness mentions tanks nearby, seeming to blame them for this car, but they'd hit it horizontally from the front. The impact direction not so clear, but it seems hit on the top, passenger side, I think from the south, maybe a bit southwest, if that missing fence is related.
.png)
Further west is a huge downed tree. It's still hard to say just where it is, but some photos I've found show two bodies next to it. An older man with a walker trapped beneath its branches, out on the street just outside a fence the tree has torn open, and younger woman just behind that fence (one of the man's sandals is visible in both views.) The shelling that downed this tree is a likely cause of death, though neither has any obvious and serious injuries. (shelling direction not so clear) The woman is said to be Karina Yershova, but she was said by police to be found in a shallow grave far across town (see Karina Yershova post). But there are some disturbing signs of violation in the scene, as was suspected with her.
Some exceptions to the southern fire rule:
Light pole near 3/3 tank firing - the fragmentation pattern and its "shadow" suggest horizontal fire - like from a tank - originating nearby to the W-NW hit the base of that pole directly. Drone video of 3/3 seems to show it still standing, but most logically that's when the damage happened. Maybe someone pulled it down later to make a roadblock. It's down like that by first new views of 3/19.
Some questions about who was the cyclist and who was killed when can wait for another post.
Far east on Yablunska - white armband and food rations - prior to 3/21 - higher marks on fence and sections blown in - fence is on the south side of the street. Suggested: fired from the north, at a relatively close range. Panoramic vide from a video.
A house used as a base with has been geolocated to south side of Yablunska, almost next to the future barricade. It was manned with supposed Russian troops mid-day on 3/12. This house in later views: no view at 3/19 where the nearby post has come and gone - house seen, vacated with no sign of attack on 3/23 and forward - a blast next door and fire under the roof on the right on the 28th or earlier - roof also missing before before the 30th. Is that finally some evidence for Azov and friends attacking these tanks, their operators or their basing? There could be even more to that effect waiting to be released. We'll see how convincing it is.
In Review
Azov Battalion drone video, March 23:
Meduza: according to Kateryna Ukraintseva, a deputy of the Bucha City Council. “Yablonska Street, where a large share of the killings took place, became particularly isolated from the rest of the city. Russian military vehicles were stationed on the street, and checkpoints were set up to regulate movement, according to Ukraintseva. “They bombed Irpin from this street,” she told Meduza. “They wouldn’t even let people through to evacuate. It’s the street closest to Irpin. All the rest of Bucha is on the opposite side. And the Russian troops at the checkpoints wouldn’t let anybody evacuate through Irpin. The only people who could see what was happening on the street were the ones who lived directly on it — and they weren’t even allowed to come out of their basements.” Ukraintseva’s account was corroborated by Bucha residents."
Really what separates mortar alley from Russian-occupied Bucha is that it was always a natural no-man's land, shelled from Irpin, and a place Kiev's forces could still operate on the ground, especially in the last days. Mapped below, the pale strip closest to Irpin is probable no-man's land (sort of a basic minimum area), the red strip inside it mortar alley as described above.
On Feb. 27 a massive column of Russian tanks was obliterated - along with a lot of homes - by Ukrainian drone strikes, as it moved up Vokzal'na street. Probably from then on, the area was seen as too open to drone surveillance by the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, and to drone and artillery attack, to bother controlling it, or even remove their own killed troops or the civilian corpses they would later deny.
There are signs of likely Russian control along "mortar alley" that was eliminated prior to new satellite views of 3/19, while an informed source maps all east of here as Ukrainian-controlled by that day (tweet). From 3/23-28, Azov drones show 3 supposedly Russian armored vehicles parked here and even manned, forming a basis for control almost to month's end. But these left on their own after the 28th and were never attacked. Just like the some-V "Russian" tanks Azov's drones just watched on March 3 as they shot down a bicyclist the drone had been tracking - those tanks weren't attacked. It's quite likely these were actually captured units, parked there by allies to "prove" the Russians remained in charge. (a post for all of this possibly forthcoming)
But Ukraine's supposedly trustworthy political leaders insist the Russians controlled this street at the edge, and with special brutality, right up until March 28th at least. They say the savage Rusians were gunning down and terrorizing locals and shelling Irpin from there. They'd say all this apparent mortar fire from the south either doesn't exist, doesn't matter, or must've been done by Russians down in Irpin, maybe in retaliation for the Russian shelling coming out of there ... or whatever. They're a bunch of subhuman "orcs", so they don't have to make sense. They would soon be launching razor rain on areas with their own troops, just to terrorize the civilians on their way out of town, under Ukrainian fire the whole way. The beasts!
But there may be some secret logic to all this. There were some convenient twists in just WHO "the Russians" picked out to cleanse Ukraine of. The gruesome spectacle was a huge PR boot for Ukraine and another serious blow for Russia's image; Germany in particular practically set on war footing with Russia following the first news from Bucha. And after the "Russian" brutality recorded there, NPR reported: "One Ukrainian soldier, who could not give his name for security reasons, warned that Ukrainian forces may no longer try to take Russians alive. "Now, with most of our units having the information about Mariupol and how many dead people and those horrible Bucha pictures are available publicly, nobody will capture them anymore," he said. "No one cares anymore. They're all going to go into the ground." "
.png)
