Making a Dead End on the E373

Death in Bucha's Gray Zone, Part 2: Making a Dead End on the E373

June 2-3, 2022 (rough, incomplete) 

updates June 4/5, June 12, July 21

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The swift Russian offensive on Kiev was finally and drastically halted at the outskirts of Bucha on February 25 and 27, with bridges destroyed in Bucha and at Irpin. This really set the tone of the "gray zone" defense plan outlined in part 1 - trying to control a military force remotely with artillery while it's in an urban environment. This was bound harsh effects for the enemy and for the local populace, and was probably illegal by normal standards, but ... they do get to blame all the negative outcomes on Russia, even directly. 

This post explores the northernmost incident shown here, Feb. 25 on the E373, and nearby, partly (perhaps totally) on the same day. In part 1, I initially had this as Feb. 28, in a momentary confusion, included that version of this RE-UPDATED infographic map. At the end, we'll also touch on the crossing at Romanivka for some contrast.

Add July 21: even before the Russians rolled in, someone in Ukraine was working to halt the coming advance. Somewhere I found this photo posted late on the 24th showing shelling of the rail line at Vokzalna street - included in this Tik Tok video of early fighting aftermath. Shown here with 2020 street views facing south, and facing north, a photo of March 5-7 as presented by CNN - some differences but clearly the same place. The one impact crater shown is just south of the tracks - a miss.  I think it was fired from the west or WSW, for what it's worth. 

Bridge of Death, 2/25

In an early emergency, the E373 4-lane highway bridge to Kiev was destroyed, about one kilometer from the outskirts of Kiev, about 24 hours after the first tanks crossed the border. That sure seems ambitious, but it didn't work. 

The aftermath of this incident was shown in a popular Defense of Ukraine (official) tweet at 1:59 PM on Feb 26 (my shown time +10 hours). Translated: "Kyiv region. The column of the Rosguard was destroyed. The enemy has no place on our earth !!!" That had over 22,000 likes when I retweeted it just for reference the other day, some 5 minutes before it was deleted. Why?

(seemed deleted, because I was blocked?)

A few postings on Twitter remain, like by Aleksandre Zarnadze, at 8:25 PM the 25th in Kiev. I could find no postings on Youtube, none of Facebook. I don't know how to search on telegram. I don't need to find copies, just curious where they are & aren't. They were around. Gazeta.ua had reported on this, Feb. 25: "In Irpen, in the suburbs of Kiev, Ukrainian soldiers burned a column of Rosgvardia. "Death to enemies!", – reported the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." That linked to a Ukrainian Land Forces Facebook post, but "this content isn't available right now" - maybe just on account of it being graphic.

So this video is hard to find now, almost as if it's being scrubbed. As far as I've seen, there were no other videos or still images, nor any clear reports of this event at the time. Other photographs and videos of this scene only appear on Feb. 28 and March 1, with several all at once showing the same scene around sunset. Logically, those images were taken late on the 28th. But the incident was 3 days earlier, and there seem to be no images in between. So as the first views vanish, it can give the appearance - perhaps accidental - that this only happened on the 28th (that's how I got confused). So just to be clear - a panoramic view of the scene from the 2/25 video, starting at the charred soldier who made it the furthest east, compared to a later photo from a similar view. 

Briefly on the damage: I'm still no real expert, but that looks like fired artillery, be it heavy mortar shells or some rocket/missile. Only the middle 2 of 4 lanes are down, the one to Kiev in the river, the one to Bucha just sagging badly. The outer lane to Bucha was passable and people kept driving on it. The outer lane to Kiev was mostly intact, but probably not drivable, except on a motorcycle. Another impact in the Bucha-bound lanes caused a crater and no collapse. All that's visible in a later aerial view showing the new temporary bypass bridge. Red and orange boxes = the first two Russian trucks.

That basic scene was first filmed a bit past solar noon, and the site is only smoldering lightly, so this military event occurred hours before, on the morning of the 25th. 

There were no clear early reports I've seen, but I haven't seen everything. The well-connected Illia Ponomarenko did tweet around 10 AM on the 25th "Some of key bridges across local rivers have been destroyed, including in Irpin, to slow the enemy movement down." The E373 at Bucha is one of 3 places marked "where Russian armored groups are trying to gain a foothold right now." The bridge at Romanivka was not indicated, almost requiring that "in Irpin" means this bridge, at the end of that southernmost red line.

Below is the scene facing the other way, on the one passable lane into Bucha, in a video from "SAFARI" National Police "clearance operation" in April.  The second truck visible on the left - 2 soldiers were blown or moved to the right shoulder, one just passed and one visible ahead, next to some yellow truck paneling on the guardrail.  

VPolsch (Poland) would publish a later photo of 11 April (Rick Mave/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) and report it showed a "bridge destroyed by the Russian shelling on the highway across the Buchanka river. " That's the Irpin river, and why would the Russians bomb a bridge they were trying to cross at the same time?  

Four available videos:

1 Burned-out military vehicles and destroyed shops after battle for Bucha on outskirts of Kyiv - YouTube

2 Под Киевом разбита колонна Росгвардии - YouTube

3 Город Буча после тяжелых боёв. No comment - YouTube

4 Спалена техніка Росгвардії під Києвом | Репортаж із Бучі після бойових дій - YouTube

This scene is also covered a bit, in lesser but grislier detail, is the post Some Horrors "Russian Troops Left in Bucha" - Burned Bodies - here, a fuller analysis: no tanks or fighting vehicles seem to be here, just five vehicles I'll call trucks. From east to west, closest to the collapsed section are 2 badly damaged and burned trucks, the first one pretty well flattened (red & orange dots below). Then one that's less damaged but burned (yellow), then a police truck and a blue cargo truck that are intact other than flat tires (green & aquamarine). 

Dead soldiers are left mostly charred around the two wort-off trucks. Other bodies and wounded that weren't engulfed in fireballs may have been recovered. At least 5 or 6 bodies are seen outside the trucks, still then in April, one of them partly eaten by stray dogs.

Sarah Firth, 8PM 2/28: "#Ukraine: Today witnessed destroyed #Russian special forces tanks in the city of #Bucha about 20km from centre of #Kyiv after the Ukrainian military & civilians managed to repel their attack. OMON uniforms scattered on the ground & weapons logs & soldiers names (not shown here)."

Add June 4: It doesn't add much, but a box with a list attached is shown, saying:

box number 4, date-January 22, 2022

Special police unit Kemerovo. 

Mine box for 100 - 2;

mine box for 200- (illegible); 

optical grenade launcher sight (ПГО-7В3) - 1;

illegible

illegible

Bag for 2 RPG grenades - 1;

Magazine for AK-104 cartridges - 4;

Bag for 4 AK cartridges - 1 (translation: Natalia Karpova)

"Investigation-Info" would report on March 2 "Here riot police stopped - their burned bodies, along with route sheets, uniforms, jackets with patches of the special forces and continue to lie on the bridge. There is no one to pick up the corpses of the Russian military, so local stray dogs gather around them. The military says the bodies must be buried. And they turn to the Russians to "take their dead" and no longer appear here." Kyiv Depo reported a Russian officer was killed at the bridge. Neither mentions any civilian casualties. 

Scene layout, including parts covered below - note that only the bridge part with first two trucks and bodies is clearly there on 2/25. The rest probably should be, but perhaps not all of it. Even aside from that, the full story why all were there is unclear - police trucks meant to arrest who? Maybe meant to pick up the wounded and dead from the first attack? 

Add June 4: Some Crossed! 

Did they just get lost and take a wrong turn? Were there armored fighting vehicles with them so this makes more sense as a force fit to push across the river? Collapse Into Now noticed and geolocated a video posted by Ukrainian Pravda at 8:40 AM on the 25th, showing the bridge attack. Correlating features exactly is tricky, but it might be that all fires we see are across the bridge, with only smoke visible from the ones we've seen burnt west of the river. Either way, the view is about like this, bound on the left by a lone building and tree across the road, and on the right by trees, poles, and buildings:

First we see the left-hand fire behind a tree, a hot one in the middle, and another to the right. The object at and behind that fire might be three actual vehicles, maybe a tank and two trucks. The bridge must be what I've boxed in white here, so all but the left-hand fare would be across the bridge, almost at the village of Horenka on the edge of Kiev. 

Another video was taken from the same spot but inside and upstairs, and it has better resolution. Here, the other two vehicles are also lit up, and we can see a rocket exhaust trail angling in on one of them, from the left or from the south (hard to say if it's more from east or west, from Kiev or Irpin). I was able to correlate the street bridge and street signs pretty well - the yellow triangle one here is just visible at the edge of the scene map above. The rest of this continues off that frame. In this way, I can place the 4 seen fires (of I think 5+ burning vehicles) pretty exactly like so - one made it to about 40 meters from the nearest Kiev-linked cross street of Horenka. 

It's possible that others made it even further, and the stories of Russian tanks on the streets of Kiev even by the 25th aren't so crazy after all. You wouldn't expect a couple to get far or have much effect, but a few may have gotten there by just this route. There were presumably Russian vehicles that were destroyed inside Kiev city limits, it seemed early on Feb. 26, but quite a ways south of here ... (where I left off with that)

This analysis puts burned vehicles not that far past the blown section, which never seemed evident in available views, all from the Bucha side. Reviewing these, it's now clear that at least two wrecked vehicles are seen across the gap, about at the green-marked sign above. That's where it seemed like 2 vehicles were seen burning on the 25th. It almost seems like there are just these two, but foreshortening can hide a lot.

Aaand here's Collapse Into Now with an April view from the Horenka side of the bridge of multiple charred military trucks headed by one charred tank, and a truck that looks civilian except for some odd features. At least one corpse might be visible next to the tank. 

June 12, important update on outcomes: There's evidence of execution at the bridge, albeit of men already badly injured. There are several helmets seen, all of them off the soldier's heads; here three in a row near three bodies. The one on his back with hands frozen up might suggest he was carried by the knees and elbows after rigor mortis set in but was not complete, and then he was deliberately burned, locking that position. I've seen that exact thing before when Right Sector massacred and burned their political opponents in Odessa, May 2014. It's not clear where he'd be moved from or why. But there is a photo I believe is of this same man one showing he has a bullet hole in his head. It's among some photos from the bridge by Carol Guzy, Zuma Press ZUMA Press - Image Search: War Crimes Watch: BUCHA'S HORROR. Description: "April 3, 2022, Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, Ukraine: Anguished face of war, as bodies, including those that appear to be Russian soldiers burned in or near their armored vehicles in the streets of Bucha, in the suburbs of Kyiv."

Commander of the Georgian Legion, Mamuka Mamulashvili, claims a part in this operation and the mop-up. To Tim McMillan at The Debrief,  Mamulashvili "said when his unit ran out of ammunition, he started running Russian paratroopers over with his car. “We had no more bullets. I ran them over in my BMW,” Mamulashvili proudly chuckled. “I can show you the dents in my BMW if you want.” " This article tries to relate the ill-fated column's story, citing its leader, Lieutenant Colonel Astkhov Mikhailovich, captured injured but alive, with others, at the bridge. Mikhailovich said his crew simply got separated from the rest of their column, didn't know where they were going, and got on the bridge by accident. They were in "three KamAZ 6×6 armored vehicles, an olive-drab GAZ-66 4×4 truck, a Tigr all-terrain vehicle, and a BTR armored personnel carrier." I'm not sure if that's supposed to be the same 5+ vehicles we've seen east of the gap, apparently set ablaze while driving? Or from other vehicles that were stopped further ahead? But the story makes sense. These few trucks and a BTR would have no business pushing into Kiev behind no stronger force. Their crossing effort was partly successful, but seemingly accidental.

 

Right Sector?

Finally ... video 3 above shows an interesting detail - a red-and-black flag similar to that used by the infamous ultranationalist group Right Sector (Правий сектор, Pravyy Sektor). It's visible flapping in this view just before sunset (of what day?), but not there in another view just after sunset on what seemed to be the 28th (3:12 in video 4). To follow-up:  Is this related to Teroborona, Territorial Defense? IS this Right Sector mobilized, or someone of a similar mindsets or methods? 

For years this ultra-nationalist group was snubbed as too extreme to bring into the armed forces of Ukraine, like the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion was. But following the Russian invasion to "De-Nazify" Ukraine, it seems they're being brought in. This was rumored to be in the works back in early April. On May 14 Right Sector posted a photo story on their Facebook page: 

⚔️ Fighters of the 2nd Battalion of the DUK "Right Sector" swore an oath of loyalty to the people of Ukraine." 

That seems to be the same flag - just as lacking in a white logo across the middle - that may have recently earned some leverage, notably in Bucha. I think I also saw something about a Right Sector unit being ushered in, in a ceremony with torchlight, and it was posted on the Facebook page of the Bucha City Council. But I just spent hours trying to re-find it the same way - loading all posts and scrolling down and down. Every time I get to early April, my stupid computer runs out of memory, even if I just re-started it and did nothing else. Anyone more capable: it was way down there (I think), maybe mid-late March, and hopefully still is.   

Nearby Collateral Damage

Next: some related scenes to the northwest on the E373, partly and maybe all on the 25th, but at least some of it came at least hours later. 

A Russian AFV was also filmed parked behind a shopping complex on the E373, with soldiers positioned in the field, and shooting heard in the mid-distance (Rob Lee on Twitter). These assumed Russian SOF were seen on 2/25, so then or earlier, and it can hardly be earlier. Provisionally geolocated by Collapse Into Now to 50.5548425,30.2746448. Facing SSE into the sun (through some clouds), I'd say this is late morning, probably after the bridge incident. Seen here: the back of shopping center at left, "tank" at far corner, 2-3 soldiers standing among the trees, one laying flat most of the time. Nothing very interesting happens.

An apparently later scene was posted, earliest I can now find, the afternoon of 2/28 and with afternoon lighting (back/west side of store is lit). It shows the same area from the street just south of the store - most likely filmed on the 25th, or possibly any day between, including the 28th. This has what looks to me like a truck - not the AFV seen in the other view - further behind that store (as if hiding), now damaged and vigorously burning. The trees all around are stripped of bark and branches, and at least 4 cars on this street are stopped at odd angles, damaged and abandoned or perhaps with drivers killed, and still inside, except for one brown car with a wounded man sitting behind it as someone else helps wash the blood off his face. 

The clear explanation is that truck was shelled, perhaps along with another target in the area, and the rest is collateral damage - primary fragmentation marks look a bit loke bullet holes, but often more irregular, as seen here. However, the two postings I've seen explain "The Russian occupation troops shot at the cars of civil citizens" (Ukrainian Struggle Centrer) or "Russian troops roaming in the streets and woods, firing on civilians" (marqs on Twitter)  

A white car with windows out is also abandoned at an angle just west of the one with the injured man. Two more cars are seen in the near distance to the east, one of them having burned. Past these, there's a railroad overpass - lit from this side means it's well into the afternoon here. Just beyond on the left see a red fence, gray house, yellow house, no vehicles obstructing the view. here on Feb. 25, 26, 27 or 28.

The scene changes later, though it's not clear when, and stayed that way into April. An army truck of a different, older style was apparently trying to head north away from the bridge - likely after some kind of attack there - and was struck right at the railroad tracks, setting it ablaze as it rolled under the tracks. At least three more civilian cars behind this truck were damaged badly enough that at least a couple of fatalities seem certain.  I lost two different video links and the better set of still frames before I made this passable composite view with details on the cars. Apparently posted by Gerashenko and by "British Intelligence" on Telegram. Then I found a better copy: Денис Казанський on Twitter

Timeline: Assuming this scene occurred and wasn't just staged, it happened later than the afternoon scene above - which in turn must be after the bridge was destroyed well before noon, on the first plausible day for such things, the 25th. So this must be some later shelling that, for all we know, happened later on the 25th, 26th, 27th or 28th ... or in the middle or near the end of March or start of April for all I know. 

Add June 4: The attack by Fora did happen later the same day - Marqs posted the video at 5:52 PM on the 25th, based on earlier postings. I already cited that posting but didn't notice. Credit for noticing: Collapse Into Now. Smoke from that should not be visible in the new 8:40 AM video because it happened in the afternoon. It's still not clear when the truck under the tracks was hit.

Damage summary: moderate collateral damage - light to moderate damage to hones visible in some views - City Market grocery store - there's a big sign for it on the bridge - was hit north side, some fire damage - 7 noted cars badly affected, surely with several injuries (one of them seen), and probably a few deaths (maybe quite a few of them, if any of those cars were packed with refugees - none of them seems packed like that).  No civilian bodies are seen in later images from April; anyone injured or killed was probably helped away by survivors and bystanders, or later on by other locals - unlike those Russian troops still there at filming time, well over a month after they died. The blowing of the bridge may have caused additional traffic injuries or deaths we don't see because they're in the river, and it disrupted civilian traffic, and hampered evacuation. 

That's pretty mild stuff compared to the blown bridge on the P30 highway to Romanivka from southern Irpin. Here, civilian traffic was moving, but no Russian military traffic. As noted in the top map, a van wound up flipped in the river and briefly on fire. Another scene shows some 45 civilian cars at least stopped at the bridge headed towards Kiev. At least one was apparently hit with direct artillery strike, flipping it another car completely off the road and badly damaging several cars around. A child's doll was dropped as people fled one of these cars. likely most of these were stuffed with refugees trying to flee.  There were probably at least 6-8 deaths right here and many serious injuries. The fragmentation marks and the way cars were flipped off the SW side of the road suggests this artillery was fired from the northeast, the Kiev side, not from any Russians coming from the north and west. (video - video)

Add June 4: It was probably hundreds of vehicles stuck - 300+ for sure - with several dozen badly damaged, probably dozens killed and 100+ seriously injured, at the least. But noting it didn't happen all at once. Apparently, people kept driving there, parking, and then walking the plank bridge to cross. Some cars will be just parked then. The area way to the west (yellow line) was reportedly hit with Russian shelling March 9. But as I noted, the cars flipped violently off the southwest side of the highway, suggesting artillery fire from the northeast - Ukrainian-controlled areas in Kiev or Irpin.

... And compared to what we'll see in part 3 on Vokzalna street in Bucha, dropping the bridge on the E373 was pretty mild. 

Add July 21: overview map of the E373 attack with a Maxar satellite view (Feb. 28, I believe - USA Today tweet and another tweet from the 28th) worked in that misses the foremost vehicle (red square), for the most accurate mapping yet. Total 13 marked military vehicles - 7 marked with circles west of the gap, 6 with square dots to the east. Note that one vehicle seen on satellite (teal square dot) seems to be a smaller truck, maybe with a hole in the back but more intact than most - it's apparently absent at the time of later videos. In fact, it may be absent from footage around sunset on the 28th, so removed over the course of that day (see above: "at least two wrecked vehicles are seen across the gap"- we'd see an intact truck on the left if it were there). Maybe it was a Ukrainian vehicle driven in there to assess the scene or something. An empty space of charred pavement just ahead of that is also marked - visually, it suggests two vehicles ahead of it had burned and were moved - one would be the green truck, and the other unclear. Ignoring the suggestion, it might be just the one truck, and it rolled ahead naturally or was pushed.