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Wednesday, July 27, 2022

The Case for a Secret Ukrainian Presence in Bucha

Death in Bucha's Gray Zone, Part 9: The Case for a Secret Ukrainian Presence in Bucha

July 27-29, 2022

(a bit rough, maybe incomplete)

I've been trying for a while to establish when and where Ukrainian forces might have operated in Bucha prior to the Russian withdrawal around March 30. Maps by the Institute for the Study of War employ stringent criteria that show Bucha and everything around it as a vague, mostly  unchanging area of Russian "advance" - not Russian "control" - for the entire time, perhaps reflecting the mixed reality in which Kiev's forces could never really be excluded. (ex: 3/24 - 3/18 - crop from 3/18 below, Bucha traced on) 

For something more detailed, I originally cited maps by Dr. Abdullah Manaz, a freelance journalist and author based in Ankara (website: Manaz.net). but I was always unsure what his maps were based on. By March 19, these show the eastern half on Bucha as removed from Russian control, presumably after some days of progress to that end. This is shown below at left. The red line is "today" (afternoon on 3/19), while the purple line shows what Russian forces controlled "yesterday." Bucha is fairly visible at upper left, with a red line down the middle." Dr. Abdullah Manaz on Twitter -The #UkrainianArmy counterattacked in the areas of #Bucha and #Irpin, north-west of #Kiev, and the #RussianArmy was forced to retreat." Were they? To this degree? How does one learn that? To the right is an example of my early maps showing how this scales out (adding the same red line), along with a further advance Manaz showed for March 24, putting almost 2/3 of Bucha under Ukrainian control.

That always made sense to me, but it's embarrassing how much weight I put on those maps with so little idea what they were based on. Since then, I've been looking for better or trying to make my own, based on reliable information. There hasn't been much to support this reading. 

A map I found showing similar to what Dr. Manaz had mapped was drawn up by Julian Roepcke (a German "OSINT" activist, pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia) as "the military situation in Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel, according to the Ukrainian army" - the red line showed the line of contact. He only did this incidentally, as he cast doubt on a Ukrainian claim to have Russian forces "surrounded." (on a bigger scale, on 3 sides, yes - but not fully). I scaled that out ... red line is the claim as Roepcke mapped it - pink = a revised front he proposed based on a geolocated video of recent fighting, knowing Kiev held the crossing, and thinking they might be well into Bucha (makes sense to me too) - pale pink = more like what he should have done for the red line. 


By citing a possible source in a later tweet Roepcke suggests he was trying to replicate a map presented by NBC's Richard Engel on Twitter "Ukraine making big gains around kyiv.  I got a brief (with an unclassified map) from two top municipal officials." A digital map is projected on a huge screen he gestures at. I scaled this out as I could - also on Twitter - so cities and roads and the river matched with a flat map. It took some skewing, a lot of scaling and blurring, so it's not exact, but everything visible roughly lines up across this area. Then I traced Bucha's outskirts approximately, based on the E373. It's all inside the purple. 


By this, the map seems to show Bucha 100% Russian controlled on the 23rd. While fighting remained hot in Irpin, officially nothing much happened with Bucha until the Russians left a week later. That's an important plank for accusations the Russians must be responsible for all killings that happened in the city - or at least those that weren't caused by Ukrainian shelling - and there's a good reason they downplay their shelling. 

On the Other Side, it's the Russians

In fact ... by this big map Engel saw, even the majority of Irpin was Russian-held, so the Vokzalna-Soborna crossing was out of Ukrainian hands (angled red box in the middle). Manaz showed Ukraine taking all of northern Irpin on the 19th, but we're skipping that. Still, I've always taken that crossing as Ukrainian-held the whole time. If it were lost, that's not "big gains." It's a big loss. 

Generally, I've heard Russia never took more than about 1/4 of Irpin, but it fluctuated, and I haven't really studied it. In fact, lacking a clearer picture there, for now I'm just copying Roepcke's Irpin line, arbitrarily adjusted,  

A video aired March 24 by France 24 - likely filmed on an earlier but recent day - says that at the time, the Russians controlled "half" of Irpin. (a full 50%, or the smaller of two parts?). The video starts from the Romanivka crossing in southern Irpin, where the reporter is told "if you want to enter Irpin, pass by the right. It's the side we control. On the other side, it's the Russians." But right and left of what dividing line?

The video shows a supposedly charming Ukrainian fighter driving north through Irpin, at least starting on Soborna street (5:00 bridge - 5:10 passing Synernia), and then places I find harder to pin (worth expanding on with more geolocation work). 5:32 passing a tank (abandoned?). Some violence and bodies along the way suggesting this is or has been a front line. Russian troops are seen patrolling in "the park" (5:42), whereupon the driver turns to the right. 

But finally in the early afternoon they're at the edge of "no-man's land" closest to Bucha - on Soborna street just south of the ravaged Giraffe Mall - at the front line with its flags and cement mixer, bulldozer marked "welcome to hell," some dead Russians rotting just off to the left, a smashed car ahead and at one point, maybe still, a badly dead civilian man was left for people to walk past.  Beyond: the hedgehog-studded bridge to Bucha straight ahead. Quite a few civilians cross that bridge and through this zone as they film. You get the sense the last few days in Bucha were extra stressful, and evacuations may have been halted, causing a backlog and an influx. Somewhere probably in Irpin, bursts of automatic gunfire are heard in the distance. 

Smoke rises over Bucha in that view - ahead to the north-northwest, somewhere north of the new high rises (blue arc at right - not there in this dated satellite view). Compared to area fires that were seen by Fire Map - NASA | LANCE | FIRMS (noting this doesn't catch all fires), the plume's base lines up well with one of two blazes just north of Bucha, in southern Hostomel on the 22nd, and the other one's smoke likely blends in with the plume we see. Distance: about 4.4 km. NASA FIRMS doesn't log any notable fires on this line of sight on the 20th, one near it on the 21st, but that's too close to match. There is a big one probably too far east on the 23rd (forgot to add it, but about top right corner in this image, 1.8 km from the one circled). No fires at all are logged in Bucha or its north on the 24th or any day thereafter. 

So I suspect this footage was filmed on the 22nd, and the well-known front line was still Ukrainian-held at that time. Maybe the Russians wrenched away control the next day and officials included that in their own "big gains" map of the 23rd or, otherwise, maybe this map isn't correct; maybe Ukraine held more of Irpin than shown. 

Secret Presence?

And maybe they were operating in parts of Bucha, if not in proper military control of any of it. Officially, it seems, the defense plan - where Bucha was a "gray zone" managed remotely with artillery - held through the entire occupation. Implicitly, there was no organized military resistance in Bucha, at least after some early attempts up to March 3 or 4. However ...

Background Type: There was a policy dubbed "comprehensive" or "total Defense," adopted in 2021, that aimed largely to militarize all of Ukrainian society in the case of an invasion, allowing military forces to be based in schools and homes and launch attacks from there, effectively making people human shields ... all kinds of changes to civil law - and the creation of a robust Territorial Defense Force, among many other things. 

Ukraine’s “Total Defense”: A Critique - George Woloshyn and Eugene Stakhiv Jan 19, 2022

"TD forces stay close to their homes and families defending familiar (to them) terrain. In fact, they are intended to be a regional force, subject to regional authorities and with a somewhat decentralized structure. When the enemy attacks the defenders will have access to prepositioned, clandestine caches of supplies and armaments needed for civilian resistance and resilience (such as counteracting enemy propaganda) and partisan-type armed operations against enemy forces. "

If this were in effect in Bucha prior to full Russian occupation - which is probable - there might be resistance fighters living there already, who could find an excuse to stay behind and help organize resistance activities. Many who stay behind would serve as informants, reporting Russian movements, etc. Here I mean people who shoot. They can call in strike locations, and then swoop in to finish off the survivors and secure a former Russian base, for example. 

Most would try to leave by the 4th or so, to work in full-formation in government-held areas. But between some who stay behind and some who sneak back in, with weapons caches stashed inside the city, they could form a serious threat. The degree can't be known, but these will be there - how many and how well equipped, how they were used, all remain unknown (to me anyway).

The Russians seemed very concerned about "Territorial Defense," looking for them or, generally, people who served in the "Anti-Terror Operation" in Donbas, who they think can be known by "Nazi" tattoos, and who seem to the be the backbone of TDF (as related). It seems the Russians executed a number of men on suspicion of membership. There many cases of this reported, mainly denying any militancy, but increasingly allowing that it was so in certain cases. There are other cases reported where I'm not convinced the Russians were involved at all. I'm still sorting the evidence for several of these (see around).

It strikes me that others who stay behind might be Russia sympathizers who wanted to connect with the occupiers, maybe assist them, and maybe to escape with them in the end. Ones aiming to resist will also stay and so both type of neighbors would be present to some degree, with only so much to keep them from killing each other. 

As for legal accountability, an expanded defense policy in July, 2022 "offers legal protections for any civilian in Ukraine who takes up arms against an occupying force, while offering the government options for disavowing or blocking counter-productive resistance." (Army Times) Would kidnapping or murdering a neighbor the volunteer ethnically hates count as "counter-productive"? Like if they posted a video of themselves doing it and it made global news? Otherwise, they could always just blame the Russians for it too. But that kind of "disavowal" option wouldn't be written into law. 

Chronology of the occupation of Kyiv region (babel.ua) - Vladimir Shcherbinin was in Bucha, heading "the public organization Buchanska Varta, which had existed since the Revolution of Dignity of 2014." Bucha massacre victim Zhanna Kameneva was a member of Buchanska Varta (see here). Shcherbinin would be her boss in that. "Varta" means "guard." He apparently coordinated with TDF in its resistance operations, mainly described as early; he himself fought the Russians near the Novus in north-central Bucha on Feb. 27, getting badly injured and hospitalized for it. 

For the span to March 5, Shcherbinin says: 

"Partisan work was in full swing, — says Shcherbinin. — I was in the hospital, but I was constantly updated about whatʼs going on. One sniper went and shot about ten of Russians. Then two more guys. One of our fighters went and burned the armored personnel carrier at night. He died, itʼs a pity, he was a good guy. But some traitors showed [Russians] who was where. They were riding with racists on the armored personnel carrier and showing who participated in the ATO [Anti-terrorist operation] and who was in the Varta. They [Russians] didnʼt even ask any questions. If they [these traitors] pointed a finger, Russians opened a fire from the machine gun."

(bolded because new) For the span after March 5, he mentions no such thing. But there were probably partisans like that, and others on Shcherbinin's side, but with no army present to assist them directly. And so we can never rule out that they might pick some finger-pointers or other enemies to drag from home and execute, with no army required. 

But anything involving a column of armored vehicles and Russian unforms probably is Russian; false-flag operations on that scale are a logical possibility, and one I favored initially, but the more I learn the more it doesn't seem likely. In general. 

Enhanced Resistance: More interesting is what I mainly focus on here with the map - how additional forces could enter to link up with any locals, bring in fighters from elsewhere, resupply and better weapons, and maybe even heavy armor, drawing on the massive resources handed to Kiev after the Russian invasion. With the areas north and west of Bucha occupied to some depth, such boosts would probably enter from government-held areas to the east or the south.

And within the "gray zone" there might be a no-man's land - as there was in Irpin, and maybe even more so - where you can't even pick up bodies, for example. In Bucha, this would be the exposed southern strip along Yablunska street, "mortar alley" as I've called it, closest to Ukraine's mortars and drones. Russians were there, in parts anyway, in tanks - would maybe clean up corpses like in more civilized parts of town, if they could, but they didn't so ... they couldn't? In fact, they didn't encourage anyone to go out, live in, pass through this area - A Russian embassy Facebook post explained "the southern outskirts of the city, including residential areas, were shelled round the clock by Ukrainian troops with large-calibre artillery, tanks and multiple launch rocket systems." Generally or totally, that fire came from Irpin to the south. But still, the Russians may be quite limited in their management here, and they could easily be challenged in it. They might be chased from or might give up on stretches of it. 

And consider for Ukraine to run an area, they might need only a local withdrawal of Russian forces, forced or voluntary. But then, Russian bases west of the tracks not reported to vacate more than perhaps a day early. All I've seen is the Russians left around March 30, suggesting that applied in each area discussed. On Ivana-Franka, for example, in the far southeast of the city, the Russians were there until, suddenly, "on the morning of April 1, they were gone" (Der Spiegel)

 Chronology of the occupation of Kyiv region (babel.ua) supports the official line, perhaps:

March 23—27. The Armed Forces encircled Irpin, Gostomel, and Bucha, cutting off the occupiers from their logistical routes. Fighting in the region intensified. — At some point, somewhere in late March, we had to hide in the basement again, — says Iryna Levchenko. — Our guys began to give them [the Russians] a proper trearment. [sic]"

March 28 — 31. The mayor of Irpin said that the city was liberated from the occupiers. Russian troops began to withdraw from the occupied territories. — A combat order to move forward has come, — says Ihor Kim. — Reconnaissance was conducted on enemy positions in Bucha, and I was informed that yesterday [March 30], they were still there, and today they have already withdrawn. Even part of the armament was left. I didnʼt understand what was happening. There were still quite active battles. I had one guy killed before they left. It turned out that they [the Russians] were not provided with supplies and suffered very heavy losses.

If the Russians were out of Irpin before the last day, where were these ongoing battles? Maybe in Bucha? Only undertaken then, at the very end? Since the 28th? The 25th? The 22nd? The 19th? 

The Russians don't mention false-flag gangs plaguing the southern outskirts, but it seems entirely possible to me the Ukrainians had small crews of likely extreme people operating in some areas - sometimes moving in cars, sometimes on foot, harassing Russian supply lines or engaging in sabotage, attacking the Russians directly, and maybe attacking them with false flag allegations as they eliminate some of their own undesirable citizens. 

So far, there's no especially amazing case for that, just some evidence both for and against. But it's the kind of possibility I have to look into here. 

If there was any presence, it would be secret. They probably wouldn't advertise it with shaded areas on a public map. They might be seen or reported anyway, and there is nothing I've seen that clearly suggest as much. But then they might just move at night or in disguise, citizens were discouraged from reporting Ukrainian movements, and most had their phones confiscated by the Russians anyway. 

I'm not saying anything like this happened, but it might have. And if it did, it might follow patterns like this.

Map
From what I've learned in months of research, a city map with notable events, points of possible clashes and changing hands, mapped and dated, atop some speculated areas of possible Ukrainian control or of mostly-unchecked operation.

Wheeled forces from Irpin could cross the rivers at any of 3 points: Left to right: Vokzalna/Soborna (Ukrainian-barricaded: barricades could be moved, and operations by foot are possible), via the Hostomel's'ke Hwy from northern Irpin (a crossing and general area I have seen ZERO videos or photographs of or reports about. This quietness alone might suggest something relevant was happening there), or by the exposed and likely guarded, damaged but somewhat passable bridge at the E373 from Kiev/Horenka (one lane was passable for civilian vehicles, anyway, and could possibly allow tanks/AFVs). All entrances would be variously guarded, with the eastern ones probably harder to guard; penetration into the east side is more likely. The rail crossing at Vokzalna would be needed to connect east and west areas of operation, and this should be well guarded - the Russians needed it for the same reason. 

Special sources: 

Building damage: Map detail | UNITAR building damage assessment up to March 31:  https://www.unitar.org/maps/map/3522 

Fire Map - NASA | LANCE | FIRMS - (Most fires don't seem to appear, especially on cloudy days, and sometimes the ones that do don't correlate with any notable damage. Visible fires could be from an attack on Russian forces in general, from a distance in the usual gray zone fashion - or the same and maybe from closer, with an aim to chase the Russians out and take over, or after some degree of takeover, an attack on Kiev's forces to halt their advance or stop or punish attacks aimed north or west.)

Drone footage: all AFAIK from Azov Battalion - relevant views for 3/12-13 via CNN - 3/23-30 downloadable videos via Meduza.

Notes for areas of interest
Listed as: numbered entries) spots lettered on the map)
1) A) ~3/13 at the new roundabout: shelling from north (roundabout crater + frag marks on facade to the south), possible deaths from that (body 1 - maybe present 3/13?) - 2 other deaths nearby (bodies 6 & 7) before midday 3/12, another not yet - maybe the 13th, definitely by 3/18, next to a crater, from a shell fired from the north (by fence damage). Russians were to the north. Was there someone new in the area worth firing on? An armored vehicle ("tank") has driven down here ... to kill people? Or maybe to investigate mysterious events involving dangerous people? Early drone views enhanced and sharpened, March 12 also rotated 180 degrees. 

2) B) 3/16 Karina Yershova, missing since 3/10, is brought here badly injured by apparently Russian soldiers and, per a witness, is executed alongside a local couple for totally mysterious reasons. https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/05/who-killed-karina-yershova.html

3) C) 3/17 Likely Territorial Defense fighter Vasyl Nedashkivskiy rep. executed at local command post at 33B Tsentralna, established there on March 5 (Reuters with some addresses that took some further decoding - at right). Another executed man was found in the same spot, less clear story and not dated, maybe killed earlier.

4) D) 3/17-18 fires noted by NASA system across the Hostomelske bridge - one on the 17th is the only one in Bucha - 3 nearby follow the next day.

5) A) 3/18: 4 men rep. executed - one may have been killed already by shelling - video exists to suggest 1+ execution mid-morning - the video claimed a date of March 25, but detailed accusations claim the 18th, and all bodies seem present in satellite views of 3/18 and 3/19 (see 1 above where I already numbered them for some reason) - one body w/hands bound, white armbands suggested -  dedicated post long overdue - this mass execution was blamed on Belarusian civilian (as far as we know) Sergei Kolosei in what seems to be a major, unacknowledged blunder. https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/05/sergei-kolosei-bucha-massacres-first.html It wasn't him. Who was it? Were they even with the Russian forces at all? Who was really killed there and why? I looked into that some a ways back, and will come back to it. Until then and even after, there will be some open questions here.

Full March 18 satellite view of the area, taken quite shortly after the video mentioned above:


6) E) Starting 3/18: "the Russian attacks on civilians intensified on March 18th." CBC - shared video: apparent clashes with gunfire - the kind that's usually from up-close battles - heard, filmed sometime around/after the 18th, implicitly, Sounds seem to be in the Millennium State area to the north, here generally labeled E. Same witness says door to door searches, with shots heard in some cases, happened in the area south of that, from 3/18 at least to 3/29 (see 25). 

7) F) by 3/19 Checkpoint has appeared since 3/13, and has witnessed a greasy battle, might have been overrun? Briefly complicated anyway? Maxar satellite images of 3/19 - street (see below, upper right),  dark smears of what looks like a former front-line at Yablunska and Vodoprovidna - in better views, like a March 25 drone video (big view below), we can see this is all around a tire barricade as for a checkpoint - fences have been smashed, perhaps to allow driving around a clogged intersection - some AFVs parked by the barricade made of tires that was attacked, likely jamming the intersection with wreckage and hence the backyards driven through until it was cleared out. 

The above also cites a 3/3 video, since found the (probably) March 5, where these signs don't appear. Since then, drone footage from 12 and 13 March has emerged, apparently showing the 2 bodies but none of the barricade/battle signs - no barricade, no grease, no smashed fences. As of 9/19 we see all of it. Something happened here. Note how the mess smears more to the west. Damaged vehicles may have been pulled (or pushed) back to the west.

Checkpoint as seen in April. Note destroyed house behind it, pieces of it in the street.

8) G) 3/19 2 fires just off the E373 west of the river - this suggests fighting over the crossing, as if someone wants to cross ... or just did, and wants to advance, or is launching attacks from here, and is being frustrated in that. Or it could be Russians getting shelled from Irpin wherever they happen to be, for no special reason.

9) H) ~3/19 new likely shelling death. El Pais: Oleg, a cook aged around 30, lived at 62 Vodoprovidna, the 9-story one - set out on March 19 to get firewood. ... "It was the last time his neighbors would see him. His body appeared 10 days later with his hands tied with plastic." ... local Yaroslav was able to reconstruct "the most-detailed account" where Oleg was pressed to cook the Russians a barbecue on the 15th, and "they may have been dissatisfied with the result," as Yaroslav speculates. That might be why "Fearfully, [Oleg] told them that he had a wife and four-year-old daughter." Still, when Oleg went out 4 days later, "Yaroslav heard him shout: “I’m a civilian, I’m a civilian, don’t shoot!” At the same time, five shots rang out as the Russians told him to stop." Handy witness.

They were telling him to stop while his hands were already tied? Did he try running from them, so they shot him in the back? Or did they tie his hands after the shooting, to make it look more like an execution? "They never saw the cook again until his body was found face down next to the building on the day the Russians left. They don’t even know if he was there the whole time. Yaroslav explains that when they rolled over the body, his guts fell out." So he was injured in the front, and quite a lot - not in the back as he ran ... "In Oleg’s apartment, on the fifth floor, his wife Natasha chooses not to speak." That might be smart. “No one understands why they killed him,” says Yaroslav. “The Russians are barbaric and inhuman. He didn’t behave aggressively and he was an intelligent person.” Admission: the allegation is pretty absurd, but he assumes most of us will buy it without reservation, because everyone knows Russians aren't human.

Also a house used by Russian troops and another across the street (55 and 64 Vodoprovidna) were shelled possibly by the 19th, definitely by 3/23.  Reuters report has alleged details, a house photo that matches with a house Vodoprovidna 55? (not numbered on Google Maps or on Yandex maps but logically it would be 55), located here with "tank tracks" out the back, from the south, etc. And it's been wrecked. At 64, a man was killed early on, the wife moved to the same 55, I believe, in the basement with the owner, until they all fled on the 10th. (Digital Journal) (photo allowing geolocation to 64 found here) Her home was likely occupied too. It was then partly flattened and burned. 

Adding: I've found reports to clarify the next house south of 55, on the lower right and off-frame above, was also occupied, with claims of 6 tortured bodies in the basement, and is perhaps the neighboring occupied house where an Instagram handle tagged on the wall allowed some sleuths to identify a specific Russian soldier. This house - Yablunska 215 - was not shelled. As it happens Ukraine preserved those clues - maybe even enhanced them, for all we know. A Milwaukee Independent article I found has photos showing Bucha resident Ivan planting trees in the vacant lot between houses, seen here marred with tread marks. lot seen here. Ivan says he "was able to escape before the Russians occupied the city on February 26. ... All the doors of Ivan’s home were broken, and his valuables were stolen or destroyed. ... "There was a trench in my garden, where the Russian occupiers hid their equipment. And there were graves. In my basement, I found the bodies of six tortured people. It was the same situation in many houses around the neighborhood,” said Ivan. “Eventually, the relevant government services came and took the corpses away for identification and burial.” I don't believe these alleged six have been seen or reported about at all. 

10) F) ~3/20: In between satellite views of the 19th and 21st. in the block of Yablunska just east of the checkpoint intersection, 2 cars have been recently stopped, one with a body sporting a white armband appearing near it. (here I wasn't sure about the third car on the right - it was there in the intersection from March 5 at the latest)

One of these cars with apparent light shelling damage on the driver's side, one with no visible damage. Both may be brand-new, had signs in the back windows, affixed with corner stickers or velcro, now removed. Neither is marked V. One has a new body appear in the street nearby, wearing a white armband. There are different ways this could be read, and I'm not sure myself. The first maybe just shot, lightly crashed into, windows smashed manually right at the locks? Who were these drivers and what were they doing? What happened to the rwst of them? And for that matter, who was it that stopped them here? I've been studying this awhile, and haven't seen these questions answered. From a video (...), some views west-to-east:




11) 1) ~3/20 man in track suit shot dead near a Russian forces post, circumstances unclear - "On or around March 20, in the late morning, Russian forces occupying an apartment building on the corner of Poltavaska and Shevchenka. Streets shot an unidentified man wearing a black track suit. A man and his 14-year-old son who lived in the building next door said they heard the shooting." (HRW) It seems possible this was a Ukrainian fighter in civilian dress, killed during an attack on the Russian position. If so, his weapon was apparently recovered, but not his body. They may have been low-scale, operating just on foot. Besides, it could be left as proof the Russians were killing civilians. Also a sizeable fire was logged in the area on 3/20, about 120-180 meters NW of that intersection. But no serious building damage was noted.

12) J) ~3/20 Russian armored vehicle hit in Ivana-Franka area: Der Spiegel English (April 8), citing 13-year-old girl "Varya": "On or around March 20, as the fighting was getting closer to Bucha and an armored vehicle was hit, the violence on Ivan Franko Street increased. The soldiers started looking for someone to hold responsible and threatened Yevgeniya’s daughter. "They came into the yard," Varya says. "'Tell us everything! We know that you know something!' They started firing over my head and over my shoulder." ... "the fighting was getting closer to Bucha" = still not in it. Implied: the AFV was hit with remote artillery. But surrounding events suggest it might have been more intimate.

13) K) 3/21 Large fire visible in Maxar satellite imagery (in the middle of the image at right), but not logged on the NASA Fire Map. The location is an area filled with truck yards and such, right across the Hostomelske bridge.  https://discover.digitalglobe.com/

14) A) and nearby, 3/21: 2 fires seen by FIRMS, but no clear sign just what might have happened (more analysis pending: 3/18 sat. views vs/ later drone might set one, anyway)

15) L) 3/22 2-6 People killed by Russian troops mid-day on 3/22, as reported, but near shelled Russian vehicles, at or near some shelled houses where Russians were based, and the killings look more like extreme shelling deaths. Post, to be updated

16) M) 3/22 (app loc) Oleksandr Rzhavsky abducted passing Russian post at Victoria park. See also24) M). https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/05/who-killed-oleksandr-rzhavsky-and-who.html 

17) 3/23 a fire (no letter). I drew this part of the possible area before seeing this fire - same happened with the 3/17 & 18 fires - possible coincidence, but where clashes with clandestine Ukrainian fighters make the most sense, fires break out. 

18) F) and near to the west, 3/23: V-marked tanks ( One identified as BTR-D, two as BMD-2)  seen parked just west of possible battle at the checkpoint (see 8): Alleged new line: a block east, hidden behind fences: seen 3/23 to 3/28. Once the drone sees a BMD manned by Russian troops, or it sees Ukrainian men by a vacant BMD parked there just to be seen, to make sure the Russians can be blamed for any fresh killings in this area. They do vanish from the scene before 3/29, as if part of the general Russian withdrawal, but that could be a performance.

19) N) ~3/24 6 likely shelling deaths from 16) L) burned ~3/23 or 3/24? Near alleged Russian command post implicitly still in operation. (Le Monde English, April 10)

20) O) 3/24 Tetiana Eremenko killed passing Russian post at Lisova Bucha train station with her husband and daughter around 4 PM. Most likely the soldiers shot her, but they spoke up to say it wasn't them. Well, who else? And why? The Russians allegedly detained the father in a cruel episode, as described, but then gave the family a stolen car they had, so they could recover and bury Tetiana's body. (kotsubynske.com. April 20, NYT April 11) 

21) P) After 3/24: an older man with white armband appears dead just short of the crossing to Irpin. No visible injuries. 

22) Q) Dmitryo S. 3/26 Dmitro Stefianko, walking about 10 AM with another man who lived, when Russian troops opened fire, hit his backside, dragged him back and executed him, in front of another witness they held but didn't kill.  (ITV News) Video retraces route, allows geolocation to the dot Q. That's most likely under Russian control, but possibly not, and so - possibly - false stories had to be made up.

23) F) by 3/28 and 3/29: house behind checkpoint (Yablunska 334) IS destroyed between views of 3/25 and 3/28, along with lesser damage and burning to garage half of the adjacent house (332), where AFVs were seen earlier, but had already departed. The house remains a likely base for Russians trying to hold a line here. This goes against the checkpoint being permanently overrun on or before the 19th. It also goes against fake Russian AFVs deployed in the area. But possibly, this is a base for fake Russians with seized tanks to cover for their secret pre-clearance operations in this area. Directions of fire can't be quite so definitive by now, but worth more study. 

...that little shed was hit again by 3/29. Why? Evidence destruction? One further position noted, but it seems just 3 AFVs total, one of them getting moved. On the 29th and 30th, it seems one BMD-2 does not leave, just gets covered up? Why? 

24) M) 3/27 "Pro-Russian" politician Oleksandr Rzhavsky killed by a drunk Russian at home nearby (walking distance from a Russian base at Victoria Park, and on the same street) - or killed there after the Russians left, following a 3/30 phone call with some sober-minded Russians, in which he refused evacuation? That was advised to avoid being killed by Ukrainian ultra-nationalists, who may have already killed Rzhavsky's son in 2018. 

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/05/who-killed-oleksandr-rzhavsky-and-who.html

25) A) 3/29 rep. mock execution here or nearby: CBC News video: on the 29th, the day before they would all leave, the local Russian soldiers came to the door of [Volodomy Lyzovsky?], a heavyset motorcycle enthusiast and mechanic, apparently 3 houses north of the roundabout. He says they took him to a nearby house and beat him to force a false confession of helping Ukrainian forces. He refused, so they marched him to Yablunska street - probably at the roundabout. "They brought me to an area where the bodies of people killed earlier were lying. They made me kneel there, they put a gun to my head, and they fired it next to my ear." 

But then they let him go. Lyzovsky had a phone full of videos, some of which he shows a CBC reporter. He did suffer a fractured cheekbone under the right eye. Still, motorcycle man with the broken eye had good enough vision, perhaps, to be the one that recognized a Belarusian civilian he saw on video, Sergei Kolosei, as his tormentor, the man who would also be accused of executing the four men there 11 days earlier. As I noted: "Separately, on March 29, Kolosei was accused of forcing another citizen "to confess to the fake activity against the Russian army," employing beatings, a mock execution, and "forcing him to smell a dead man." That was probably Mr. Lyzovsky. From the 18th until the 29th, even after the local tanks had left, soldier Kolosei (rank unknown) of whatever unit - the Mozyr Postal Brigade? - was running these cartoonish Russian terror ops in this area. Do we buy that? Who was it really? Were they even the Russians at all by this time?

26) R) ~4/2: as a reminder, though it's not early control - it was Kiev's extremists in Bucha when those five men were killed at the children's camp, probably late on the 2nd, hours after some of them openly admitted they were executing people without blue armbands. None of the 5 killed had one. One had a white armband. Was that really the first time they did this? 

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/04/bucha-massacre-basement-executions-in.html

Sunday, July 17, 2022

Andrew Hill's "Vagzalnaja" Mass Grave "Revelation"

< Bucha Massacre

July 17, 2022

Introduction

This story broke a while back, and I initially took it as meaningful. Since it isn't, an explanation of how seemed less urgent. But for what it's worth, I finally finished this. 

One of those arrested as a "mercenary" in Ukraine is Englishman Andrew Hill, who had experience with the British Army, fighting in Afghanistan and as a military instructor."The Englishman came to Donbass as part of a group of Western mercenaries." (Pravda 5/3)

I'm not all clear on the story, but he's said to be in the hands of Donetsk Peoples' Republic; "A criminal case has been opened against Andrew Hill and two other mercenaries in the DPR, the prosecutor's office has taken it to court. They are charged under several articles, including "commission of a crime by a group of persons", "forcible seizure of power or forcible retention of power", "mercenarism"." (RIA) But there are 3 famously on trial there and facing possible death sentences - a Moroccan and two Brits, neither of which is Hill (and both of whom sound like Ukrainian citizens, not mercenaries). And Hill was captured by the Russians, it seems, after he surrendered in the Mykolaev region, nowhere near Donetsk. "On April 29, the Russian Defense Ministry published footage of a survey of Hill, who surrendered to Russian servicemen in the Nikolaev region." That apparently means Mykolaiv Oblast (it's what came up when I plugged that into Google maps) (TASS, June 8)

Since then, it sounds like Hill has been informing on his former comrades - "who also committed crimes against civilians of the Republics for money." as a Pravda report of 3 May put it.

"According to him, there was a real hell in Ukraine. He tells about mercenaries who came here from all over the world, who for the sake of money are ready to commit any crime.

Hill admitted that they came here not so much for money, but also because they have fun. Not knowing languages, they maim and kill everyone. The Briton has never seen such cruelty before.

"Foreign mercenaries are torturing the Russian military and pro-Russian activists. They cut off their fingers and torture them... Most support Nazi ideology. They proudly wear tattoos with swastikas and SS emblems. Unfortunately, I was on the side of these terrible people, and unwittingly, I became an accomplice to crimes, "the Briton justifies to VGTRK correspondent Andrei Rudenko."

So he could be seen as a defector, a whistleblower, even a late-blooming hero, to save his own skin or otherwise. Details being unclear ... prisoners of war are not supposed to called on the make public, politically useful statements like those now coming from Mr. Hill.  - for various reasons including because they could just be coerced. Both sides do it anyway. 

The same might apply to, say, journal entries - it's extremely easy to coerce paper to say what you want. Andrew Hill's journal is said to contain some interesting information regarding the infamous "Bucha Massacre" of hundreds of civilians. But as I'll show, it probably reveals nothing except that Hill didn't know much about events in Bucha.

The Story as Presented

RIA Novosti June 8 (archive)

KHERSON, June 8 - RIA Novosti. The coordinates of the burial place, presumably civilians, were found in the diary of British mercenary Andrew Hill ...

"East or south. Mass grave of 280 civilians (with coordinates 50.521318; 30.204626). ... There is still no income, savings are drying up," one of the pages of the diary, which the agency reporter managed to get acquainted with, says.

A little paraphrasing, but that's about it. See below. "When exactly the entry was made is not indicated in the diary." Also it's not clear at all these bits are part of a single entry or related at all.

"According to Google online maps , the indicated coordinates correspond to the address: Ukraine , Kiev region , between the cities of Irpin and Bucha , possibly Vokzalnaya Street (VAGZALNAJA) in Irpen." Vokzalnaya street in Bucha ... it's often given (by me anyway) and usually mapped as Vokzalna, but is usually pronounced Vokzalnaya - He probably heard this information spoken that way, and hence the phonetic spelling. (It's also a word - вокзальна - meaning "station," for a variety of other possible meanings: "Here is the station" of something ... but then he would probably write "station."). 

But Vokzalna runs south across the Buchanska river into Irpin, where it's called Soborna street. It's nowhere near the coordinates given. 

The actual journal pages were shown later - for example https://t.me/ua_tribunal/1096. Here are the 2 pages in question. Note how VAGZALNAJA is attached to a little diagram or map.


for example https://t.me/ua_tribunal/1096

"Apparently the numbers are the coordinates of the as yet undiscovered mass grave. ... This is the diary of a punisher." Imaginative. I started that way myself.

Reading One: Taking the False Lead

The given coordinates come out, in degrees and minutes, as: 50°31'16.7"N, 30°12'16.7"E - Google Maps puts the pin here, almost exactly on the smaller of 2 trees right there along what seems like a minor canal running along Zakhidna street in Irpin (not remotely similar to Vagzalnaja). Below right: in broader context, the Vokzalna attack site indicated. 

I wondered if there was a recent view of this area in some drone videos of Irpin I had recently found.  One of them indeed shows the area, at about 11:05. Ирпень до и после. Кадры с воздуха - YouTube (widest possible composite view below). 

The 2 trees at bottom middle here, near the corner of this fenced area, are the same ones mentioned above - the smaller one almost exactly marks the coordinates Hill gives. The tracks we see are probably from a large vehicle, seeming like one set going one-way - probably does include at least an in and out, maybe a few of them, just combining nicely. What's odd is how clean the space the trucks went to was left - no weeds, no marks, just freshly leveled soil, starting right where the tracks fade away and filling most of the lot. 

Uncannily ... this seems to explain the J-shaped curve he drew. The meaning of the perpendicular line and circle aren't so clear, but perhaps the edges of the mass grave and the truck turn-around at the corner where bodies were offloaded.

The excavated and re-filled area seems to have a clear edge this side and along the edges, with the far end more patchy - that's where the dug up soil was piled before the re-filling. That's work space, not grave area. Exact cut-off unclear, but I estimate the size of the SUGGESTED excavation as at least 2,000 square meters (~50 meters of that length and the full width: 35-40 meters at one end, 45-50m at the other). That could fit ... around 900 bodies? The space needn't all be used. 

To label this with the street name Vokzalna ... where a roadblock was made back on February 27, to devastating effect, almost surely killing some locals, despite the denials. It couldn't be 280 residents, but maybe as Hill heard it, a big portion of civilian bodies secretly buried came from that street. And maybe it included the dozens of Russian troops probably killed in that attack and left behind.

I first leapt to this reading (Twitter) even though it didn't make much sense, because it briefly seemed to make sense, and finding that lot with the j-shaped road egged me on. But others helped talk me out of it.

Qoppa found another view of the spot from the other angle, showing a dirt road inside the fence, likely connecting to other roads from the Bucha side, or at least to tracks like those visible left of center. Craters just past the lot seem to originate from Irpin, maybe against vehicles trying to cross the field. But it's not clear who or when or crossing which nway; Russians controlled both sides at some points, and Ukraine held this side before and after.


But both Qoppa and Val found it too open an area for mass grave digging or filling, with those craters illustrating the point. Someone would see the process and probably film it, or even violently disrupt it. I granted that but it still seemed possible, if unlikely, considering the unusual scene; why does a construction crew in Irpin take a road clear around to the far corner, then drive to the middle and apparently do nothing but smooth the dirt? That still seems like an open question, but not a heavy one.

Reading Two: the Good One 

Breaking down the elements of Hill's journal entries:

- mass grave 

- 280 civilians 

- "east or south" 

- map/drawing 

- VAGZALNAJA label

- coordinates 

These may be just written at different times for different reasons with no connection, or they might connnect in a cople of different ways. 

Starting with mass grave and 280 civilians: as Val suggested, the most likely source for both is an early statement from Bucha's mayor Anatoly Fedoruk on April 2 “In Bucha, we have already buried 280 people in mass graves.” AFP, via Al-Jazeera. He could have other reasons for writing that, but as we'll see, the other points support this reading; he was just copying down things he heard about the official story of Bucha.

Next the apparent map. There are 2 ways to read it: the dumb way above, and as a city level map where one street is plainly enough labeled Vokzalnaya,  The cross line would most likely be Yablunska street where civilian bodies were famously found dead - it curves at the west end, and another curve onto a little peninsula in the lake fits even better. If this is such a little map, it would be presented some 45 degrees clockwise from true north. Below I show it rotated 90 degrees to be a bit closer to north orientation.

This overall map rotation - where local south is kind of southeast, might be why he writes "east or south." However at the drawn rotation, southeast = left or west. That part is just unclear to me. 

The circle at the intersection marks a well-known spot with no room for a mass grave. But I think he circled it because of something else mayor Fedoruk had said. An interviewer from German DW asked: "The horrific images of mass graves have shocked the world. How many such sites have been found in Bucha?" Fedoruk apparently misunderstood (or I did) and replied with a list of mass killing sites, not mass graves. "Three were discovered in Bucha." One was at 144 Yablunska, where "the Russian occupiers stacked the bodies of people whose hands had been tied behind their backs into piles, like firewood." Another was "in a center for kids, where people with bound hands and bullet wounds." And he said there was a massacre - or a "mass grave" - "on Vokzalna and Yablonska Streets" apparently referring to "mortar alley," the few blocks of Yablunska street where bodies accumulated from different and murkier violence over March. 

So Hill was probably just following Fedoruk's statements about 280 civilians killed, and a "mass grave" at what sounds like the intersection of 2 streets, which he sketched out, labeling one "Vagzalnaja" 

What about the intriguing coordinates he gave? Those were specific numbers and must refer to more than an vacant pre-construction site. Right? As Val noticed (Twitter) the coordinates roughly share longitude with the known mass grave at the church (about 50 meters off), but were some 3km off in latitude. 

Actual: 50°32'53.1"N 30°12'21.4"E
Given: 50°31'16.7"N+30°12'16.7"E

That seems beyond simple coincidence. It could mean Hill was confused about the Vagzalnaja "mass grave" claim and was comparing it to the actual mass grave. He referred to it with coordinates, but he messed it up somehow. He was probably still puzzled about it when he got injured and decided to surrender.

So anyway ... this story didn't seem to have a big impact anyway, but for what it's worth going forward, it would be counter-productive to promote the false readings put out earlier. Andrew Hill might have some important information to reveal, but if so, this "mass grave" stuff is not part of it.

Killings on Ivana-Franka Street

 < Bucha Massacre

July 31, 2022

(rough, incomplete)

note: original version posted 7/19 was a decent start considering it only cited 2 sources (and gave one wrongly) - seeing much more reportage and imagery, I've made major enough revisions it's basically a new article. I have the original version archived, can re-publish it if that seems helpful. If you wanted to understand this case and read my first piece, and you still want to get it, sorry for the first read - this is the one you should see. 

Introduction

Some 14 of the 400 or so lives claimed in the "Bucha Massacre" were taken on or near Ivana-Franka street, an area I was slow to look at closely as I've focused on northeast Yablunska street, aka mortar alley. Ivana-Franka appears on the maps as basically the same street renamed east of the railroad tracks. But it does not connect with Yablunska except by a footpath across the raised tracks, and there's no nearby crossing either (I just clarified that, improving on previous maps). Ivana-Franka only runs some 600 meters or 4 irregular blocks before a name change. The killings we'll discuss were at its west end, circled in red.

Almost the only source I've found was a May article in the New York Times: "Such Bad Guys Will Come’: How One Russian Brigade Terrorized Bucha" By Carlotta Gall, Photographs by Daniel Berehulak. May 22, 2022 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/22/world/europe/ukraine-bucha-war-crimes-russia.html There were some photos and a brief mention of 2 killings in an earlier NYT article from 11 April: "Bucha’s month of terror: how Russian forces left behind a landscape of horrors," with an attached map. 

 The New York Times isn't the only source to report on this story, like only lawerly people who work in New York can understand it. Luke Mogelson at the New Yorker also wrote about it: How Ukrainians Saved Their Capital, May 2, 2022. No one else I could easily find has, except by citing these 2 reports, including some translations back to Ukrainian. 

Sources I found later with a bit less ease: Le Monde English (April 10), Der Spiegel English (April 8), and in Ukrainian NV.UA (April 6), Fakty (April 11), Delo (May 9), and some local accounts on video from Aliveua, June 7. In Japanese, a Twitter thread with photos from Kunisue Norito.

As told, the Russians there "tortured" innocent locals including women, deliberately slicing entire limbs from their bodies, maybe while alive, then burning their bodies and stray parts all heaped up horrifically at an open crossroads ... to "cover their tracks." 

“From this house to the end, no one is left alive,” Olga Havryliuk, 65, told Gall. “Eleven people were killed here." The article claims a death toll of 12, and that plus another article's map and claims adds up to at least 14 killings on and near Ivana-Franka street. This is not a definitive total, but quite likely all there was, aside from any Russian or Ukrainian soldiers killed. In roughly chronological order:

1 Volodymyr Cherednychenko
2 Roman Havryliuk
3 Serhiy Dukhli 
4 unidentified man
5 Viktor Pavlenko
6 Yuri Pavlenko
7 Volodymyr Shypilo
8 Tetiana Shypilo
9 Andriy Shypilo
10 Oleh Yarmolenko
11 Lidiya Sydorenko
12 Serhiy Sydorenko
13 Oleh Diyun
14 unidentified young man

We'll consider these below in a few sections. Here's a reference map. Note several houses numbered 1 - each is color-coded for the street it refers to.

Killings were said to run for "18 days" after the 12th or 13th, so to the end of March, when Russian forces voluntarily left the city. Spiegel heard "on the morning of April 1, they were gone" Ourdan writes of "a month of occupation that turned into a living nightmare" But as I'll explain, they may have been in charge only about ten days, and either way the Ukrainian offensive to oust them likely killed half of these people, including as it does "all of the inhabitants of six houses where the soldiers set up camp." 

Three of those six houses may be empty, but 3 with people killed correlate with three described posts, 2 of which apparently suffered shelling, presumably by Ukrainian forces. One of those had 4 people living there who wound up dead, quite possibly from shelling. Then someone - possibly Ukrainian - tried to hide these details by burning the bodies.

Proceeding now in great detail...

An Informant: Volodymyr Cherednychenko

Volodymyr Cherednychenko, 27, was an electrician who lived with his mother and aunt at #10 Ivana-Franka street. His father was Ukrainian military and "died three years ago after returning from the Donbas front. His mother Nadezhda gave Volodomyr a temporary burial, but had plans to re-bury him next to his father. (Ourdan, Le Monde)

Gall, NYT: "Nadezhda Cherednychenko, 50, pleaded with the soldiers to let her son go. He was being held in the yard of a house and his arm had been injured when she last saw him. She found him dead in the cellar of the same house three weeks later, after the Russians withdrew." A photo shows "the cellar where Volodymyr Cherednychenko, who was detained for three weeks by Russian troops, was found shot through the ear." No body is there. I don't think his body was ever photographed before it was removed and buried.

Mogelson: his mother Nadejda Cherednichenko told Iryna Havryliuk that her son Volodymyr "had been detained in early March." It was "three weeks" later when she asked "two Russian soldiers patrolling outside of her house" about her son's fate, and was told “You don’t have a son anymore.” Later on, "A neighbor had taken Cherednichenko to a basement where Volodymyr had been shot through the ear. All five fingers on his left hand had been wrenched backward."

Victoria Yasnopolska, Fakty, April 11: "Natalia Alexandrova was at home when three Russian soldiers knocked on her gate. It was March 4. Together with her 26-year-old nephew Vladimir Cherednichenko and his mother Nadizda, she lived in the house number 10 on Ivan Franko Street in Bucha. This was enough to take the unarmed frightened guy to the neighboring house Number 6, painted yellow. While he was led, Natalia heard her nephew crying and cradling her hand, which, most likely, the Rashists managed to cripple."

"Later, the soldiers pushed Vladimir into an armored personnel carrier, which was parked in an apple orchard. His mother brought him a warm coat and shoes. She was told that they would take her son to the city for further questioning and return them in three days." Note that would be on the 7th. "But there was no news for three weeks. One of the Russians, who appeared to be 18 years old, told Natalia that her nephew had been taken to an inactive zone in Belarus." But eventually Vladimir's body was "found in a damp garden basement on a nearby street, at the foot of a brick staircase."

As Fakty tells it, "after their defeat" - or just before their withdrawal at the end of March - is when "the inhumans brought the boy to his knees and shot him in the head through the ear. Vladimir was kept all this time, brutally tortured, in the basement, as evidenced by a bloodied mattress." 

Le Monde's Ourdan, in contrast, would write: 
"Of all the residents who were killed or disappeared, only the case of Volodymyr Cherenichenko leaves no doubts as to the killers' motives, even though the execution of a prisoner of war is a crime. His mother, Nadizda Cherenichenko, tells it straight: "Volodymyr was informing territorial defense volunteers [of the Ukrainian army] about the situation in Bucha and the arrival of the Russians. When they searched the house, they found messages on his phone."
Not that it justifies the abuse, but this largely-ignored detail does give some reason to kill well short of satanic genocide. 
Volodymyr was first interrogated at home, in front of his mother. He was tortured. One of his hands and his fingers were crushed. He was then taken to an army headquarters for another interrogation, and then brought home in the evening. He was locked in the cellar of his house. He was told that he would be held there for two weeks. On March 8, the next morning, he was executed." 
They would hold him 2 weeks, most likely, for more questioning, but apparently they just changed their minds. Or did someone else manage to execute him to prevent further questioning? But then, if someone was around, informed and capable enough to off a witness, couldn't they just free him instead? And if they were so informed, why did they even need his tips in the first place? 

Assuming it was his captors ... Some inconsistencies enter here. His mother and aunt could hardly miss Volodomyr's imprisonment and killing right in the basement of their home, even if the Russsians put their own new lock on it. They could hardly be left asking about his fate, hearing he was taken to Belarus. In fact, as Ourdan heard, "Volodymyr's body remained in the cellar for three weeks. Nadzida Cherenichencko buried her son at the bottom of her garden the day after the Russians left, with the help of her neighbor Natalya." This "neighbor" and "friend" is probably "Aunt" Natalya in other versions. 

Perhaps both differences stem from Ourdan meeting Cherenichenko at the killing site, where she buried Volodomyr's body in someone else's garden, and thought it was their home (and maybe just Natalia said she lived elsewhere, so she seemed to be a neighbor). There's a photo of Nadizda by her son's grave; the surroundings are too vague to place, but it's likely not behind their #10.

But then how is the execution date known? And why does it conflict with the other report? By this, Volodomyr was arrested on the 7th of March, when he was supposed to be returned in the other version - three days after his arrest on the 4th. That 3-day span might explain the difference somehow. In that case, we may have no serious discrepancies. Otherwise, there are some date issues.

A 14th Victim
A late addition: some details I had previously attached to Cherednichenko's case, but that seem separate, belonging to another young man shot in the head in another basement. Mogelson wrote that during his visit on April 6: "A Ukrainian soldier approached me to say that he’d found another victim.  I followed him into the basement of a yellow house" - like no. 6 was - "where a rail-thin teen-ager was crumpled on the floor. Blood had leaked from his mouth and nose. The soldier crouched and felt under his skull. “He was shot in the back of the head,” he said. That sounded like it might be Mr. Cherednichenko, but he was reportedly buried some 5 days earlier. This may be a 14th victim. 

Gall, NYT, May: "Another man" listed just after Cherednichenko, almost seeming to refer to him, was "caught by the Russian soldiers as he ran along the train track and taken into a cellar of a house at the end of the street," and he "was also found shot dead." The first article in April didn't mention this, but the map points to "boy found in basement" along the tracks south of Ivana-Franka, next to "two brothers in brush". Sounds like a "man" that could be called a "boy" or "a rail-thin teen-ager"? 

Ourdan heard the Pavlenko brothers were found last, on April 7, where "a young man" had already been found "in the basement of the neighboring house, killed by a bullet to the head." He covers Volodomyr separately, and notes his earlier burial. The only house near the NYT pin is odd; both Google Maps and Yandex Maps fail to give a number for the house, which is the only one facing onto a street or alley with no given name. It was painted white, not yellow, back in 2015. But otherwise, it sounds like this 14th victim was found there, and it's not clear what basement Cherednichenko was killed in - likely the same #6 he was interrogated at. In both cases, we have no images of the body. That too helped me to get them confused. In this case, I think even the locale has gone unseen.

The 64th Brigade Arrives, Not Sure When

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5rflEXLx6I
Local women say of the Russians "30 of them were here. The young arrived first. They did not touch. They came to that street, to the promenade (looks south to Ivana-Franka). When the special forces came, they were already roister (based) here." All agree they were told not to set foot outside their homes or they would be beaten or killed. None of them mentions witnessing any killings, but they survived largely by not witnessing much. 

In Carlotta Gall's New York Times piece "Such bad guys will come," the title refers to Russia's 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade, "a particularly fearsome unit of Moscow’s invading army." Gall heard about them mainly from Col. Mykola Krasny, the head of public affairs of Ukrainian military intelligence, but also from locals she was directed to. As related in the May article, the 64th is mainly recruited from disadvantaged minorities, with "aggressive habits" and "no discipline." The 64th has fought in Chechnya, and is notable for its "lack of morality." Its fighters are "rough and uncouth" and from the Taiga (Siberia); they usually speak only to bears and still find asphalt startling. They're known for "beatings of soldiers and for thieving" but with a main purpose of being "a fearsome army unit that could instill control." This is helpful to understanding the bizarre allegations at the heart of this article.

The 64th Brigade was said to arrive in Bucha on March 12 and/or 13, bringing "a new level of death and terror to the city," They shot dogs, plucked chickens, cooked meat too close to human bodies, and later burned human bodies. To their credit, no one has claimed the 64th Brigade ate the cooked human bodies. 

Asian features widely noted - Ourdan: All of them agree on one point: the soldiers posted around Ivana-Franka were "Buryats," named after a Mongolian community in the Russian Far East. Some of them insist on specifying that they were"Asians," and show with their index fingers that they had slanting eyes. The district's inhabitants are, however, unable to describe any military insignia or other distinctive signs."

Ukrainian prosecutors would announce how 3 Russian soldiers - Amangelde Bekentayev, Erbol Abilkhairov, and Zafar Sobyrov of the 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade were involved in crimes on Ivana-Franka street. "It was established that approximately on March 12 (the exact time of the investigation is not yet known), these three in a state of alcoholic intoxication, threatening with weapons, conducted an illegal search at the place of residence of the citizen Grigory Ivanovich Kasyan in the house Number 5 on Ivan Franko Street in Bucha."

"After that, all three moved to the house 1-A on the street Maxim Ridzanich. There they killed two inhabitants – Sergei Dukhliy and Roman Gavrilyuk. Dukhli was killed by a gunshot wound to the head, and Gavriluk was shot in the head and neck." This will be "approximately on March 12," a bit later in the day. As related below, they were said to be killed "on March 12 or 13," as Roman's mother Olha Havryliuk recalls. That was "when the 64th Brigade first arrived," Gall notes. "Approximately on March 12" vs. the 12th or 13th - It seems like a clue how everyone is vague about the date; it's as if they don't all know the date, and all just repeat one indecisive conclusion. And that in turn might be a clue, though it's not clear what it would mean.

Le Monde - refers to these arriving mid-month who "set up a base in an empty house, in the alley between Staroyablonska and Novoyablonska, near the beginning of Ivana-Franka Street." Following on that, "they positioned a tank and a checkpoint in front of Irina and Serhiy's house, at the corner of Maksima-Rydzanycha Street," - as told, that was done on the 12th or 13th - "then another tank next to Yuri's house" (perhaps meaning Viktor's house). This is when, Ourdan writes, "The gates of hell opened on Ivana-Franka Street."

3 Dead at Havryliuk House

Gall, NYT: Roman Havryliuk (43), a welder, and Serhiy Dukhli (46), a security guard, "sent the rest of their family out of Bucha as the violence intensified, but both insisted on staying behind. They were found dead in their yard. An unknown man also lay dead nearby, and the family’s two dogs were riddled with bullets." They were killed "on March 12 or 13," mother Olha Havryliuk recalls. That was "when the 64th Brigade first arrived," Gall notes. "The death certificates said that they had been shot in the head."

Survivors Describe the Russian Atrocities in Bucha
Russian soldiers shot and killed hundreds of civilians in the town of Bucha, just north of Kyiv. DER SPIEGEL went there to talk with survivors about their shocking experiences under the occupiers.
Sergei was Irina’s husband. Roman her brother, and "she doesn’t know who the third man is." .

"The last time Irina saw [Sergei] was on March 5. The war had been underway for just over a week by then. "When the warplanes flew overhead, the whole house shook," she says. She left the city that day, 
but Sergei stayed behind. He didn’t want to abandon the animals they had taken in: two dogs and six cats. Irina fled across the Irpin River and onward to western Ukraine. Ten days later, she received a final call from her brother: "Don’t worry," he told her.
3/5 +10 days = 3/15, 2 to 3 days after they were reportedly killed.  But she might have meant "about ten days later."

One of these bodies always looked like a woman to me, due to the coat, fur-lined with decorative spangles, and buttons on the left, plus somewhat girly boots, plus the t-shirt over his face looking like a shawl. But all are said to be men. 

Mogelson thought his jacket was just "speckled with unmelted snow," and some photos show the jacket was covered with new snow at some point, hiding such clues. Ok. "Ms." Iryna Havryliuk showed up to say this one, head covered with a t-shirt, was her husband "Sergey, a forty-seven-year-old private security guard" - and the one by the fence was her brother Roman Havryliuk. (the one face-down is unidentified). Mogelson followed Iryna inside: "Empty shoeboxes were heaped in a pile. “They stole my shoes,” Havryliuk said. Her lingerie, perfume, and jewelry were also missing." Maybe a coat and boots were missing too, but she doesn't make an issue of that.

“My uncle stayed for the dog, and my father stayed for the house,” Havryliuk’s son, Nazar, said." (Gall 2) Couldn't one of them watch the house and the dog? Was that really a two-man operation? Maybe with a third man brought in? And maybe with disguises involved? (Could the lingerie really help with that anyway?) It seems quite likely they stayed to resist from inside, were found out and executed, or even killed in defense. Otherwise, there might have been less reason, but they do seem shot: one has a major head wound, and the others are described that way (Dukhli's wound is said to have taken out an eye). The walls seem to bear no sign of shelling or indiscriminate shooting. But then they weren't probably shot right here, but rather nearby, and moved here after the fact, possibly at different times. 

Iryna told Der Spiegel "She doesn’t know why Sergei and Roman were killed. Neighbors told her that the third man in her yard had been shot by the Russians because he had ventured out onto the street while searching for better mobile phone reception. The occupiers were wary of men speaking on the phone, fearful that they could be passing along coordinates for an artillery attack." Two things they told everyone not to do - have or use a phone, and go outside. A man walking right out there going "can you hear me now?" might get shot. I wouldn't approve, but it sounds plausible enough. But then if he were involved in some resistance operation, it would likely be denied with a vague story like this.  

After killing the men there, the 64th Brigade then commandeered the house. Gall write "the Russian soldiers smashed the Havryliuks’ fence, parked their armored vehicle in the garden, and moved into the house." Mogelson describes it: "Outside a small two-story home, Russian soldiers had constructed a makeshift checkpoint from pallets, cinder blocks, and empty ammunition boxes. In the back yard, three more men had been executed." some remnants, perhaps, in photos - these also show - smashed fences and a shed - possibly all by tanks making room, maybe from some shelling of those tanks (but nothing major if so).

Geolocation:  This was a bit tricky - Here's a photo of the widowed Ms. Havryluk found at Radio Svoboda  Colored lines mark features that allowed a geolocation to the north-south Ridzanicha Maxima street, as seen in 2015, destroyed fences in red. 


She just saw her dead husband and brother behind one of these houses... to the left or right was unclear. The NYT map seemed to indicate the one to the right, #2 Ridzanicha Maxima st. and a curve in the backyard seemed to match the curve of stones seen near the dead men.  However some features matched photo to photo correlate with a 2015 Google Maps street view to clarify the brick wall with the ladder is the north side of 1 RM st., and the yard with bodies is between that and a blue-painted outbuilding of 1A to the north - not what I'd call the backyard of 1A. 

AliveUA video shows #2 across the alley - fences smashed down for the whole span in front of the house - apparent tank tracks in the yard - so the checkpoint included both yards at 1 and 2 plus the street.
And finally (?) a Kunisue Norito photo shows the side of #2 along Ivana-Franka, where there's also a gate that seems blown out across the driveway, while the whole fence leans outward - an explosion inside the fence? Some stacked shelves past that might be some lame checkpoint? A car that seems run over by a tank at some point - some kind of shelling damage to outside of the upper fence, probably from the left.


4 Bodies Along the Tracks

Gall, New York Times, May: "By the time the troops pulled out at the end of March, two brothers, Yuriy and Viktor Pavlenko, who lived at the end of the street, lay dead in a ditch by the railway line." The April report's map shows "two brothers in brush" along the tracks a bit south of Ivana-Franka. A video of April 7 shows a dog has just found one of the bodies, covered in deep brush, down in the concrete gutter.

Mogelson, The New Yorker: "The brothers, Yuri and Victor, had been in their sixties and had lived in adjacent houses. Locals had referred to them as Uncle Yuri and Uncle Victor. While Bucha was occupied, Yuri had worn a white cloth around his sleeve, to signal neutrality, and baked bread for hungry neighbors. Both men had been shot in the head. Empty beer bottles lay in the grass."  Ourdan, Le Monde: "On their family plot, Viktor had built a brick house and Yuri a wooden house." These are 1 and 1B on Ridzanycha Maxima Lane. In a 2015 Google Maps street view, an old street name appears on 1: Петровского = Petrovskogo. Since re-named, apparently, for Maksym Rydzanych, a Ukrainian soldier killed fighting "Russian invaders" (his own countrymen, probably) near Donetsk, March 20, 2015. The name is feminized, I guess, because it's a street.

Ourdan: "At the end of the battle, Viktor's house was ravaged and burned when Ukrainian artillery finally hit the tank stationed there and when an ammunition dump exploded." When that happened is not specified, except that it sounds like it took longer than it should have ("finally"), and this shelling isn't what killed them; "the two brothers had already been executed, "killed at the same time," according to their neighbor Gregoriy, earlier in the war." This might be Gregory Kasyan, whose home was searched - a likely Ukrainian defense insider. The date isn't specified, even approximately - after the 4th? After the 12th? 

A photo with Le Monde's report shows their bodies dragged out of the gutter and up the slope by the tracks. One wears a heavy blue coat, while the other lacks such a coat, and wears tattered clothing. A discarded heavy blue coat is seen right in front of the gate of Viktor's destroyed house in April, perhaps with some tears in it (white stuffing visible?). That could all be a coincidence, or maybe his death was not so separate from the shelling of his home. 2-3 weeks or more is a long time to expect a coat to lay right there, so most likely it was just nearby, and wound up right here eventually.

There is some green abdominal discoloration visible under the mud = dead probably at least 2 weeks, probably 3+. The last bodies found on Thursday, April 7, were those of Viktor and Yuri Pavlenko. The two men were lying in a pipe below the railroad tracks, covered with dirt and branches. = possibly killed as late as the 24th, probably closer to the 17th or even earlier, but but long enough after that "while Bucha was occupied" Yuri had time to become known for wearing a white armband, as he lived in his house behind the Russian checkpoint. But the Russians shot him anyway, and his brother too. No one seems to know why, and no one says just when.

As noted above, an unidentified young man was found executed in a basement close to the brothers. Again, there seem to be no images of that body or scene.

And there was one other body found by the tracks a little north of them all. NYT 4/11 an unidentified man included in a map, next to the tracks north of Ivana-Franka. Photos show a body in what seems like this spot, comparing well to a 2015 street view (optional, possibly offensive; turn right and look down at the concrete gutter). Mogelson for the New Yorker describes this body pretty well in his article. noting the massive blood loss “from the bullet hole in his temple."  Another photo (viewable here) shows the body rolled over, with another hole in his right hand - no sign of torso injuries or fragmentation. - likely shot in the head, through his hand. Head injuries aren't shown clearly, but the blood appears pretty red. The hand injury is quite red, as if fresh. No sign of decay or frost-blackened fingers. I'd say he's been dead for less and warmer days than the early executions - sometime around the 20th, perhaps. 

Ourdan alone reports a name for this victim: "Oleg Diyun, whose body lay in the grass of the pathway bordering the railroad. He was identified by police because he still had his identification papers and a phone, but he is not known to be a resident of the neighborhood. "His face is familiar, but he didn't live on that street," Gregoriy said. It is assumed that the man was visiting relatives or friends when the war caught up with him."

Six They Tried to Hide
Gall: "Neighbors who lived next door to the Havryliuks just disappeared. Volodymyr and Tetiana Shypilo, a teacher, and their son Andriy, 39, lived in one part of the house, and Oleh Yarmolenko, 47, lived alone in the other side. “They were all our relatives,” Ms. Havryliuk said." 

Rémy Ourdan, Le Monde on the Shipilo family's ordeal: "Tatiana, the mother, was forced to cook for weeks for the Russian soldiers who had taken up residence in the annex of the house. Her husband, Volodymyr, her son, Andriy, and her brother-in-law, Oleg, helped her as best they could to satisfy the occupiers' needs." Nonetheless, "the Shipilo family disappeared. ... No one knows what happened to them. They were no longer at home the morning the Russian army left. Their friends have been looking for their bodies in the entire neighborhood."

No one saw them killed or moved, no clear word on when they were last seen - they just vanished, and no one even knows when. the Russians left on their own, presumably around the 30th, and suddenly the people were gone - everyone keeps agreeing on that.

Carlotta Gall's report in May, and no others I've seen before or since mention two others who ... have a bit more specifics but wound up sharing the Shypilos' fate:
"Down a side alley lived Lidiya Sydorenko, 62, and her husband Serhiy, 65. Their daughter, Tetiana Naumova, said that she spoke to them by telephone midmorning on March 22. “Mother was crying the whole time,” Ms. Naumova said. “She was usually an optimist, but I think she had a bad feeling.”
"Minutes later," Gall heard, "Russian soldiers came in and demanded to search their garage." How Naumova could know what happened after the call must be from external witnesses, probably the neighbor who says Russians chased her off by "shooting at the ground by her feet." As Naumova heard it, the Russians escalated things and “by lunchtime" they had killed both her parents. 

Did the Russians pick up the signal of a call placed? If so, they could be expected to go and check, putting themselves near the signal. Can Ukraine pick up on the same signal and assume Russians will be there soon, and then launch a shell? I ask because I really don't know if that's possible.

When she returned in April, Naumova says she found "her father’s hat with bullet holes in it, three pools of blood and a piece of her mother’s scalp and hair." Buttlet holes and explosive fragment marks can be hard to tell apart. The physical state of the house is a matter of interest, but it isn't shown or even described, except that it's intact enough to have things found inside it. We don't even have a clear location for this house (so it's not labeled on my map)
"There was also no sign of the Shypilos or of Mr. Yarmolenko, except trails of blood where bodies had been dragged along the floor of their house." (Gall)
All six missing people were found together, suggesting all six may have been killed around the 22nd, some ten days after the 64th brigade arrived. Were they all killed over that one phone call?

Dumped and Burned

Perhaps the most shocking single image out of the Bucha massacre is one of six bodies piled next to rubbish and badly burned. This was in a small lot just off Ivana-Franka's northeast end, about 600 meters from the homes and checkpoints described above. It's just provocative, and not at all hidden. Carlotta Gall: "Eventually, French forensic investigators solved the mystery" of the missing people when they examined these charred remains "and confirmed that they were the missing civilians: the Sydorenkos, the three Shypilos and Mr. Yarmolenko."

 Several bore bullet wounds but three of them had had limbs severed, including Ms. Naumova’s mother, the investigators told the families. Her father had multiple gunshot wounds to the head and chest, her mother had had an arm and a leg cut off, she said."

“They tortured them,” Ms. Havryliuk said, “and burned them to cover their tracks.”
The article closes on that incendiary note. I suspect this was never proven, but was handed to the family as fact, by Ukrainian officials, as part of their propaganda war with Russia.

Here's a widely-seen photo of the charred bodies, blurred for the moment, and the background sharpened, Ivana-Franka street labeled. They are in pieces not well explained by simple gunshot execution, as I'll explain in more detail below, but it's not clear at all these people were "tortured" or even deliberately mutilated post-mortem. 

Gall's April 11 NYT article reported a different version. This had mentioned the Havryliuks, and other area killings were mapped, but this didn't know about the missing six, as it reported six unidentified bodies nearby: "In a clearing on one street, the police later found five members of a family, including two women and a child, their bodies dumped and burned." The map says it was a family of 4 among 6 bodies found  at the correctly pinned spot: 50.5477388,30.2489483. It's not plainly visible from the street, but not exactly hidden either. DW video from the scene with press in attendance as chief body collector Sergei Matyuk (colorful jacket) sets to work.


Stashevskyi and Anna, Associated Press, April 05: "Andrii Nebytov, head of police in the Kyiv region, noted one of the charred bodies was a child. ... The small blackened foot of a child could be seen in the tangle of charred bodies..."  No small foot is clearly visible in that mess. I thought I saw a whole leg, skeletonized, but it was an adult arm. 

NV.UA, April 6: The bodies were collected in a van marked 200 after being examined by law enforcement officers. ""Experts cannot establish who these people were yet: only burned bones remain," but it seemed "the dead were two men and four women. Perhaps one of the bodies belongs to the child."" even though they were all men and women? "The police believe that people were killed somewhere nearby, and then the occupiers tried to get rid of the bodies, dousing them with an incendiary mixture and setting them on fire."

Ourdan, Le Monde, April 10 ... 
"The most spectacular massacre took place in the eastern part of the street, near the military base.

In a vacant lot at the end of the alley where the house serving as the Russian unit's headquarters is located, the neighbors found the bodies of seven people, burned together after being executed. There were no witnesses. The inhabitants had not been allowed to use the alley, now littered with liquor bottles. The bodies are currently being identified."
He heard that seven people were killed, maybe confusing an unidentified man he doesn't mention at the Havryliuk's house, lumped in so all 7 unidentified were burned here.  It sounds like they were killed where they were burned, which was near an otherwise unmentioned Russian command post. None is specified as a child.

Mogelson wrote in early May: 
Down the road from Havryliuk’s place, charred corpses lay beside a garbage pile. Locals said that Russians in a tank had dumped them and lit them on fire. (Later, police would tape off the scene and place yellow markers identifying six victims.) One appeared to be a woman, another a child—though they were so severely mutilated that it was hard to say for sure. Orphaned cats and dogs sniffed around the burned and severed legs and torsos.
"Russians in a tank" dumped and burned the bodies. Did someone actually witness something, or is this just something they deduced, or felt like they should say. "In a tank" isn't the best way to move 6 partly fragmented bodies, though it should be possible. Some transports carry 8 intact soldiers besides a 3-man crew. Still, a pickup truck makes more sense.

Carlotta Gall's report in May had the test results. Others didn't, but they might hear /valid suspicion 4 or 5 of them were related. One had a plainly visible face, and they weren't so far from homes they were missing from. Initially it was 4-5 relatives among 6 bodies including a child, later it would be 4 people with 2 family names related to the Havryluks plus 2 neighbors, including two women and no children. One couple died with their son, but he was aged 39. Having a small child involved added emotional power to the story. That might be the only reason it was ever claimed.

Speaking of emotional power ... Spiegel: local girl "Varya," 13, related how she and her mother "Yevgeniya" are among the few locals who interacted with the Russian soldiers almost throughout the occupation ... "We were constantly trying to calm them down. Sometimes, they wanted to light the entire neighborhood on fire. Sometimes, they wanted to throw a grenade into a house." says Varya (not her real name) - says she was repeatedly threatened with death, and a tall soldier raped her at least once as her mother was made to watch. They also say they caught this boastful admission that the Russian troops had burned some missing neighbors:
Evening after evening, Yevgeniy and Varya listened to the brutal jokes told by the drunken soldiers. They didn’t want to say what units they belonged to, nor did they say where they had taken the neighbors. "They said: 'You’ll find them. We burned some of them,'" Yevgeniya recalls.
It's not clear why the Russians never burned their other victims when they had weeks to do so. Just these six, at least two of whom died March 22, received this treatment. There might be a few reasons for this distinction, like females being included. And it might be a difference in how they were killed and by whom.  

Shelling Victims?

wrote about these charred bodies before (May 15)  ... My starting thoughts are worth just repeating:
Dymtro Andriv, a Ukrainian National Police spokesperson, saying of these bodies: 
"We know they were killed by gunfire, because there are many bullet wounds. Then somebody tried to hide this crime by burning the bodies." (NPR) 
Because of what Andriv said, we should wonder if maybe they didn't die from shooting. They in fact appear more torn up, some in pieces or missing pieces, as if by a moderate explosion - if so, they may be partly burned in that blast, and were presumably peppered with bullet-like shrapnel ("many bullet wounds"). 
Another example of overdone denial: 
Anatoly Nebitov, head of the Main Directorate of the National Police in the Kiev region, explained: these people have no signs of death from explosive devices or from a missile and bomb attack. But one woman definitely has a gunshot wound." (NV.UA, April 6) One was definitely shot, so they all must have been shot, like up-close. And, therefore, anything else that looks like possible shelling must be up-close stabbing, dismemberment and such - probably while alive, so it's best called torture. 

At first, I surmised this family of 4 had been inside a vehicle when it was shelled, and they were burned to hide THOSE clues, along with 2 other bodies someone had the same problem with. It bears again showing these images in small size, with bigger views possible for anyone who needs to see these details. Here I've added numbers for reference, following the numbers investigators gave the bodies at the scene. There are some other views around, perhaps with better resolution, but the 2 views I have allow these observations on the ways these poor souls were mangled. 

1) probable adult: upper head missing, abdomen open, apparently missing most organs before burning, some probably after (hungry dogs or wild animals) - arms partly missing, status from exposed spinal cord down unclear
2) adult: left leg missing at the hip, right leg unclear - probably includes some work by hungry dogs -  left arm intact, right unclear - splits to and missing pieces of scalp, 
3) intact head, left hand - right hand missing, unclear from the chest down
4) adult female? mostly intact, no massive injuries to backside, badly charred - sliced skin under the chin? right elbow injury? 
5) probable adult: badly charred, missing right arm and most of both legs? 
6) adult male, perhaps older age - no obvious injuries at all to the front side, except detached left foot - un-burned face = fairly identifiable = tracks not covered so well. 
In between the bodies: an apparently stray leg, maybe another limb, some lumps of tissue. It's not clear on review if a child was ever visually suggested. (I thought so at one point)

Earlier I said "The burning here seems recent, not exposed to much rain or weathering - probably in April, maybe at the end of March." Amending that: I can't really say. March 23 or so sounds plausible. Or even earlier. I'm not sure how to read weathering of burned skin or clothing. Signs of decay are totally absent, but that's likely enough - especially after burning - for any relevant time frame, 

That burning has solidified some rigor mortis positions, which suggests they were burned while somewhat stiff, about a day to maybe 2 days after death. Body 6 is clear with bent knees, forearms abnormally up - I've seen this before with bodies carried by the knees and elbows, after that pose has faded for a few hours. That's when the flesh was stiffened with fire so he stayed that way to April 4. Bodies 3 and 5 might show the same, and the others are unclear on the point. It doesn't prove much - the story includes bodies carried here. But we can say it wasn't done right away, nor was it several days later. If they were killed mid-day March 22, the burning was probably late on the 23rd, give or take half a day.

Anyway, I was thinking shelled vehicles, partly from the intensity of damage. Now we hear blood was found in their homes. But as I show next, one or both of these homes DID suffer some kind of shelling. And while we can't as clearly link that to the deaths, it is quite possible, and if so, we can be pretty sure who fired the shells around homes where Russian forces were allegedly based. 

A Shell-Shocked Front Line
Luke Mogelson, for The New Yorker, offers a description of this little-seen part of Bucha that touches on some relevant context:
Ivana-Franka Street was a quaint dirt lane on the eastern edge of Bucha, ... During the monthlong Russian occupation, the street, which was close to various Ukrainian-held neighborhoods, had become a front line, and now burnt-out Russian tanks and trucks listed among the remains of splintered houses and overturned or pancaked vehicles. The few people who were around wandered amid the debris with dazed expressions, resembling the survivors of a natural catastrophe.
"Front line" might refer to Bucha in general, relatively close to government-held neighborhoods in Irpin. But it sounds like a front line inside Bucha, though no other sources mention such a thing. Either way, it's a front line, and Russian forces get shelled - up-close or from a distance. "Burnt-out Russian tanks and trucks listed among the remains of splintered houses and overturned or pancaked vehicles," and might even relate to them, like ... sharing a common cause? And people who live in "houses where the soldiers set up camp." and that suffered attacks, wind up dead ... likely from shelling. 

When were the checkpoints shelled? Christian Esch und Thore Schröder, Der Spiegel, April, citing 13-year-old Varya: "On or around March 20, as the fighting was getting closer to Bucha and an armored vehicle was hit, the violence on Ivan Franko Street increased." This suggests Ukrainian forces in general were still outside Bucha, but advancing towards it, perhaps with intent to break in. There could be advance elements already there. The Sydorenkos were reportedly killed on the 22nd, and more Ukrainian shelling might have done it.

Der Spiegel: "The soldiers started looking for someone to hold responsible and threatened Yevgeniya’s daughter. "They came into the yard," Varya says. "'Tell us everything! We know that you know something!' They started firing over my head and over my shoulder." Hmmm.

Der Spiegel: "Then, on the morning of April 1, they were gone." The local attacks didn't chase them out - they only left when Russian forces at large did - or about a day after most of them did on the 30th. Just one AFV is mentioned as "hit" - Mogelson cites plural - so far I've seen zero in images - but then I saw some. We'll come back to it below. First ...

There was some damage to the homes next to their posts, where people lived... With the May NYT article is a Daniel Berehulak photograph captioned: "The property of the Shypilo family in Bucha where six people are thought to have been tortured and killed at one end of Ivana Franka Street." Or anyway 4 of the 6 were likely killed here, while the other 2 left blood at another house we haven't seen, and probably not at both houses. 


Geolocation to Google Maps street view of the middle "1 Ivana-Franka street" (see maps)

Those Russians bring devastation wherever they go, it seems, and they die violently quite a bit. But they usually have some help in that, and it often goes unmentioned. This former Russian armor position has clearly suffered some enemy shelling. Previous damage includes a fenced yard that was smashed open, maybe not this totally, into a crude parking lot. A car marked V, and maybe put there after the Russians left - maybe with a few tanks closer to and on the street. The residents were apparently still living inside the house until they were killed there - and it's uncertain just when and how that happened.

More recently, some trees have been broken, splintered, sliced and partly de-limbed - a bit like the house's residents would be. The house is not massively damaged, apparently not directly hit, and it shows no sign of serious fire. But it has lost its windows and some roofing. The big tree downed on the left was likely hit from the right, up the street to the east. Closer views to show fragmentation marks would help say, but from the intact walls, I wouldn't expect limbs torn off inside, even if folks were moving around on the ground floor (and they would likely stay in a basement or shelter at most times). But maybe if someone had been outside, or just inside the door, they might have suffered serious damage. 

A Kunisue Norito photo is the best at showing some marks on the house, relatively few on the garage, but a busted ammunition box - luggage searched - gate sections, maybe run over - the red van - license plate removed here, was seen in earlier photos (Le Monde).

Another Norito photo shows another car, seeming run over by a tank, not shelled. But note the fence closest to the house was perforated by burning objects and partly burned away.

The shelled car ... one car has been burned out, after suffering some damage to the front end, driver's side, peeling back and tearing sections of metal, another piece tearing into the door, and igniting the engine. 

As seen there, A stray rabbit had its enclosure broken, seemingly suffered a shoulder injury, but hops around fine (Kunisue Norito video)
 
This car was parked near #1, but also fairly near the next house over, 1 Ridzanycha Maxima Ln., where a checkpoint was set up at Viktor's brick house ... supposedly no locals were living there after Viktor was killed, or when, "at the end of the battle, Viktor's house was ravaged and burned when Ukrainian artillery finally hit the tank stationed there and when an ammunition dump exploded." When isn't specified, except that it sounds like it took longer than it should have. The roof and parts of the south wall are destroyed, blown out into the yard - there was a severe but maybe quick fire inside. The car was a ways down the street - maybe hit by cannon fire from a tank parked out front, or perhaps damaged when an attack on such a tank "finally" arrived.



The photo above hid a lot. Another great Norito photo shows the damage from the other side, near that shelled car. The stone fence is intact except part of the 5th pane, and the fence from there is gone. A good portion of some destroyed AFV lies against the charred skeleton of #1, looking bigger than you'd think - clear view to 1B, and the corner of 1A on the right side. An outbuilding just to its west seems to be just off-frame, likely intact but damaged. The car in question is just a bit further off-frame, so this attack is probably what did it in. Captioned: "It is unreasonable to think about it." 

Norito's initial tweet explained "Residents' testimony suggests that the Russian soldiers stationed here did not harm Russians and killed Ukrainian-speaking residents as hostile." The destroyed houses are presented as reflecting this distinction: "In Ivana Franca Street, there is a huge gap between homes that have been wiped out and homes that have remained intact." But what it shows is the worth brutality landed just where the Russians - the military ones - were at. But then they based themselves there after killing the original resident, as reported, in the one case.

Some possible AFV remains and other clues, best seen in Kunisue Norito's photos (both shown in full above), of the area in front of 1 Ivana-Franka, the Shypilo family home. Most interesting is a small segment of tank tread, a small bit it could drive off without, if the rest was in good shape - or maybe a bit missed in some pre-photo cleanup of the scene? There's a coat with small tears, another coat with none we can see - some metal debris that few into a tree trunk or log - something electrical-looking and likely military grade (yellow, center) what might be an odd piece of charred wood also looks kind of like a boot, partly burned away, with a foot inside of it. In that sense, it seems like it would fit better with the fragmentary, charred bodies 600m to the northwest. But then laces would burn away, and charred flesh isn't usually this uniform black. Probable illusion, but such a good one I had to mention it just in case. 

Some clues perhaps in this long view down Ivana-Franka (Kunisue Norito on Twitter) - car notes: left/fore to right/aft: shelled one, V tail end, back-crushed car - gap - one crushed beside #2 RM, gap, 1+ on the right - gap - 1+ on the left - gap - 32 Ivana Franka visible "in the street" after it's turned left.

All mapped again:



Map detail | UNITAR building damage assessment up to March 31 includes for this area 3 orange dots in close proximity to say "severe damage" - the two on top of each other might indicate the houses of Yuri Pavlenko and the Shypilos - the left of 2 white dots for "possible damage" seems to correlate with the Gavryliuk house where Russians were also based, The orange and withe dots on the right must go to other spots we haven't seen. 6 more orange dots were placed just to the NNE along possible escape routed for Russian armor, and some others, including a red "destroyed" house flank the lake along the approach from the northeast. (props to Qoppa for pointing out this resource, also noting its limitations) That doesn't give dates; they just compare 3/31 images to ones from before the invasion. Could this shelling have happened on March 22? 

A consideration of the general front lines in Bucha - or if there even were any, or if they even matter - was split off into its own post to explore the idea more generally, as I needed to do. 

summary: Ukraine claimed no control at all within Bucha at least to March 23 - limited actions by fighters within the city seem quite likely, especially here in the southeast - doubtful but possible they would overrun the described headquarters, but they might circumvent it, if it didn't have many supporting checkpoints, for example.

If they died mid-day March 22, the rigor mortis note means the burning happened probably late on the 23rd, give or take half a day. The odds of the burning spot so close to the Irpin crossing being Russian held this late in the game ... are well below 100%, anyway. 

Shelling deaths from shelled homes ... That all tracks regardless where Ukrainian forces were. But when the bodies are then burned to hide the clues ... Ukrainian hands would have obvious motive to hide the signs of their handiwork, and they might be around, but it's questionable they could overrun or circumvent the Russian posts in the area in order to move these bodies and torch them perhaps right next to the local HQ. So if Russian hands retained control, they must have burned the bodies or allowed the burning, anyway. It might have been to hide their own crime, to hide a crime that wasn't theirs but that for which they would bear the blame, or for some other reason like to instill terror.

But again, we have no images or specific location for that local HQ, and just one report even mentions it. In the alley where it was said to be, there's no evident sign of fighting at all that we see. Perhaps we don't see the signs, or there was no fighting for this base, or that's never where their base was? There were some damaged buildings noted in the UN study (1 severely, 1 possibly) on the next side street to the SW, Proletarska st.. These damage points, again, are undated. But if they happened, say March 19 or 20, we can see the potential significance. 

The area right after the Hostomel's'ke Hwy bridge is likely the first area Kiev could operate from in serious force, and the neighborhoods down to the tracks would likely come next, if there were any reconquest from this side. A base near the tracks might get hammered and overrun on the 22nd. Some armor would escape, while others might be knocked out along the route. This all might kill or badly wound some residents at the 2 houses and perhaps others. 

The guys responsible would have access to the site of their work, to clean up the collateral damage ... this would require no locals reporting what would be difficult to hide - through some kind of intimidation or perhaps through a total absence of witnesses - everyone gone or staying in the basement the whole time ... I don't suppose that is very likely, but possible. No one seems to have seen the Russians actually leave, any more than they saw the neighbors disappear. One (suspiciously late) morning, they were all just gone. Maybe the night before, or a few nights before that, they could hear a hot battle on their street, and maybe some ensuing traffic and gunshots they don't understand or don't mention. Maybe some "other Russians" appeared at the very end, and it was sort of confusing. 

If so, once the neighbors were vanished and the shelling clues were muddled in the flames - to cover their tracks, you could say - that would open up other narratives, like "rough and uncouth" Siberian thugs hacking people up to "instill control." First it was sworn they were shot, and not shelled. Then when it became clear they were in pieces, it was shot and "tortured." The "inhuman orcs" cut off many of their limbs, maybe with a hacksaw and maybe while alive, disemboweled or ripped some in half somehow, besides shooting them a lot and apparently slicing them in random spots like their scalps and cheeks - eventually moved the mess "in a tank" to their own functioning headquarters and burned them there, as if to clarify the point. ... and then they went back to their quieter base to reflect on what they'd done, and to suffer that subsequent, unrelated but well-deserved shelling at the now-vacated civilian homes.

We don't have to buy that kind of scenario or absorb any of its toxic "lessons." But while there's a certain logic and a possibility to it, any false-flag type of activity is not as clearly indicated as I first suspected. A lot just remains unclear.