Attacks of September 4/5

Ukraine's Systematic Shelling of the ZNPP: Attacks of September 4/5

September 26, 2022 (rough, incomplete) 

last edits 9/27

Clashing Reports

In the IAEA's September report (PDF), they relate how:

• On 4 September, Ukraine reported further shelling impacting the top of Special Building 1, the railway/road in front of Reactor Building 2, and an elevated walkway for personnel between Buildings 2 and 3.

I can't find any public announcement to this effect on the 4th, but that might be reported to IAEA on the 4th, or it's some kind of time zone issue. "On Sunday (4 Sept.), Russia’s Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov announced that Russian forces thwarted an attempt by the Ukrainian army to attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which remains in normal condition, with eight drones." (IPE Club) But that's a different story. "Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that approached the nuclear plant were “blocked by Russian electronic warfare equipment,” Konashenkov specified, adding that Ukrainian forces also launched homing grenades at the facility." 

As for the successful attack with the described damage, others say it happened on the 5th. Sources with these details and photos to match (see below) appeared only on the afternoon of the 5th, although they were initially unclear as to just when the event happened. 

Vladimir Rogov, a member of the Russian-affiliated local administration in Energodar, wrote on his Telegram channel the earliest mention I've found with the right details: Telegram: Contact @vrogov 7:32 AM here - 5:32 PM in Ukraine. 

"The consequences of artillery shelling by militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the Zaporizhzhya NPP. Artillery strikes were recorded in the following places: special building of the nuclear power plant, communication overlap to the right of the special buildings, concrete fence. A container with distilled water was damaged in the immediate vicinity of the second power unit. There were no casualties."

Telegram: Contact @rian_ru 7:34 = 5:34: "A new Ukrainian strike hit a special building of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, and a tank with distilled water was also damaged in the immediate vicinity of the second power unit, local authorities said." This is the earliest post I've seen to include photos, four of them - the first 4 shown below. Zaporijie24 posting (link f/c) adds at least one other photo of the water tank leaking (5th photo below).

Other sources with the photos and the "Russian" story: life.ru Sept. 5 - topwar.ru Sept. 5 - southfront.org Sept. 5, adding "One of the power units of the Zaporozhye NPP is working at 80% as a result of the shelling by the AFU." 

The solar elevation for the roof photo is about 27 deg. = 4:27 PM on Sept. 5, give or take a few minutes. ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory - Global Radiation and Aerosols (noaa.gov) That's about an hour before that first posting, which makes sense. The damage could be from minutes before this, or the day before, etc. But it can't come any later. Same goes for the photo: it might have been taken the day before. But soon before posting makes the most sense.

Add 9/27: It's not crucial but interesting, and I wanted to check the time better: a straight ellipse may not capture the perspective. So ...

I took the wide photo atop a Maxar satellite view, perspective skewed and scaled it until the clear edge, start of green patches, and bases of the 3 nearest pipes all matched the flat view. The structure near us also lines up pretty well. It got fuzzy, but now that shadow - or any of the 3 - can be read like a sun dial. 

shadow is 47° from building north (47° from vertical here) 

building north is 21° clockwise from true 

combined: shadow runs 68° from north.

Inverted = solar azimuth 248° (sun in that direction)

NOAA solar calculator says that that would happen at 4:24 PM. Damn. 

Neither of these is totally exact, but there's the spread: 

4:24-4:27, give or take 2 minutes on each end = 4:22 to 4:29 for sure. (end 9/27)

Soon after that first posting, the same photos appeared as proof of a Russian attack that occurred "literally half an hour ago" or about an hour after the photos of the damage were taken. ТРУХ English, 5:50: "It is reported that literally half an hour ago the invaders again fired at the ZNPP." Guessing 12 minutes before first posting (?), that would be about 5:20. Post includes one photo, another in a reply. - https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1566800948546228225

5:55 PM, XD DNEPR (454,224 subscribers): "Literally half an hour ago, the occupiers again shelled the ZNPP." Damage is cited as "local "authorities" reported." - https://t.me/hyevuy_dnepr/35355

This post was cited, along with the photos, by others like Ukrainian News24 the same minute ("The Russians continue to engage in nuclear terrorism" "literally half an hour ago"), and Euromaidan Press hours later ("Russian forces continue attacks" on the plant, citing XD DNEPR).

Aside from "shelling" and "artillery" the exact weapon used is not clear in the local reports or the uninformed pro-Kiev recycling of those reports.

Cameras Not Lying

The Rashists once again fired at the #ZNPP and published their own pictures. 10 Stupid things a military does during a war: 1. Attack the largest nuclear power plant in Europe...

https://twitter.com/NeilHawker2/status/1566819807940452353

There were five photographs gathered from various sources and replaced with higher resolutions as I went - presented here in my own order of numbered impacts or areas 1-4

Impact 1) the top of Special Building 1 - area and detail views - this Special or specialized building w - (SB1 of 2) - as I follow - handles radioactive waste and houses water treatment plants, equipment repair shops and waste management facilities for the nearby reactors.

The roof impact fits right in with those of Aug. 28, which attack was done with Warmate drones. Here's from a satellite view of Sept. 21 showing two of the 8/29 impacts repaired and one remaining, with the new one near it in red. It seems a bit more limited than the southern 2, which raises the question: what's even weaker than a Warmate? FWIW, it also has a similar angled damage pattern, with a flight path perpendicular, so from the northeast around Illinka, I think, or perhaps from the southwest (the pattern isn't that obvious to me). The vent pipe with a cap knocked off is to the south. The first reports said artillery, but if this is a drone impact, that probably won't reveal its point of origin. 

Impact 2) - "an elevated walkway for personnel between Buildings 2 and 3." I think all of these passages also hold water pipes that connect the reactors to the Special Buildings - the damage here is quite similar to the drone strikes we've seen nearby. It will surely have damaged pipes inside.

However, I'm not clear on the location, angle of view, and/time of day for this scene - the other photos seem to be afternoon - the one timed around 4:30 - so this should be facing NW - the foreground looks just like the elevated walkway's roof as seen in an IAEA photo (see below, where this damage would probably be just off-frame to the right, if it had existed then). 

But what that is at an angle is unclear. It doesn't seem like the crossing passages to the reactors look like that (it would be the one visible at right in the photo below). There's nothing else I'd expect to see in there with a lip and ladder like this. It's a better fit with SB2 roof, seen from atop the crossing passage in the morning, except that would take sunlight from the north you don't usually see in the northern hemisphere.

Either way, the damage is roughly perpendicular to this walkway, for a similar incoming angle roughly parallel with the walkway and the edge of SB1 - from northeast or the southwest. 

A dark linear patch seems to appear on the later satellite view in just one spot - right where it should be if that crossing passage is what we see, looking NW, just off the right edge in the above photo, and right where I had already guessed it must be. So confusion aside, I marked that green in the graphic below. 

Impact 3) "the railway/road in front of Reactor Building 2" 

This fits best with a photo of a mid-sized crater under the walkways, I think at a juncture, facing northwest to reactor block 2. Visually, it's not clear which reactor, except the distant water tank (next photo) has a number starting with 2 (the walkway markings 2/6 & 3/6 not making immediate sense), and Reactor 2 is the only one anything is said to happen in front of. In the near distance is the rail line that passes and connects into each reactor (see "3D" view below).

This crater impact looks different, more powerfully explosive. The crater and ejecta might suggest a trajectory from the west, somewhat alongside this nearest pillar. and somewhat into it. The fragmentation marks on the low pipe nearby supports that it's a fragmentation warhead on such a trajectory (forward fragments spread higher). That could be an exact direction to an artillery o rocket firing spot, or an unreadable final trajectory for a drone or guided missile from anywhere.

Impact/Area 4) Probably connected to the IAEA report's impact 3, local authorities also cited "a tank with distilled water was also damaged in the immediate vicinity of the second power unit." 

A fifth photograph from a different source shows this tank numbered 2TB something, probably 40B62 as seen in the above photo. The tank isn't damaged visibly, but it and/or a downed pipe are leaking water all over. This could connect to impact 3 if I read that wrong, or there might be some other impact not shown or mentioned. It's too far to connect with impacts 1 or 2.

Rogov also mentioned damage to "communication overlap to the right of the special buildings" but I'm not sure what this refers to.

All photographed mapped on satellite image said to be from September 21 (via: https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1572623372856578051) This shows one pre-existing roof impact (northern pink box), incurred Aug. 28, along with 2 other impacts - apparently of UAF-fielded Warmate drones - and the crash of a Warmate that was shot down. The southern impacts are repaired by this time. The 9/4 impact is still there (1, red), looking similar to the previous one nearby. As noted, a dark line appears for impact 2, green. Nothing is visible to support impact 3 or to confirm its location, but that's about where it seems to be.

Here is a big 3D view of the ground-level stuff, using an August drone video of trucks being moved into reactor 1's turbine housing). Rail lines in green, mostly hidden by the elevated passages (white) - at each reactor, bulk stuff can be brought in and out by a rail spur to a gate (gold boxes). Each reactor has 2 big water reservoirs.

Conclusion

This attack, as I've seen it, is not the clearest in revealing just what happened or when or how. But it fits the general pattern of sustained tension that Kiev constantly exploits, to demonize and complicate Russia's control of the plant, Ukraine's systematic shelling of the ZNPP.

In a statement on the 5th, President Zelenskyy would speak of the plant's situation. "the last power transmission line connecting the plant to the energy system of Ukraine was damaged due to another Russian provocative shelling. Again - this is the second time - due to Russian provocation, the Zaporizhzhia plant is one step away from a radiation disaster." 

He was referring to incident the day before (the plant's last dedicated power line was down due to attack, but it was still supplying power through a reserve line - IAEA - and their report lists that separately on the 3rd). He made no specific comment there, or probably anywhere since, on the attacks considered here that, unlike the others, had photographs to go with them. But he would probably take it as fitting the same pattern and making the same case, which Zelenskyy  described so:

"I consider the fact that Russia is doing this right now, right on the eve of the IAEA conclusions, very eloquent. Shelling the territory of the ZNPP means that the terrorist state does not care what the IAEA says, it does not care what the international community decides. ..." 

He also noted "by the way, the conclusions of the mission are to be presented tomorrow. I hope they will be objective." But he feared they might be "pro-Russian propagandists" like Amnesty International and half the world, especially since the IAEA mission was Russia's idea to start with, while Kiev and their plant managers initially "argued any visit would legitimise Russia's presence there." (BBC)

Showing his deep understanding of the cartoon program he was cast as the hero of, Zelenskyy continued:

Russia is interested only in keeping the situation the worst for the longest time possible.

This can be corrected only by strengthening sanctions, only by officially recognizing Russia as a terrorist state - at all levels.

Ukraine has a very clear, transparent and honest position: while we controlled the plant, there was no threat of a radiation disaster. As soon as Russia came, the worst scenario imaginable immediately became possible. This requires an international response - from the UN to every normal state.

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/obstril-teritoriyi-zaes-oznachaye-sho-rosiyi-bajduzhe-sho-sk-77533

There you have it. Russia is evil and wants bad things because they are bad. They cannot just allow the plant to be run smoothly to their or anyone's benefit, because nuclear tension is bad so they desire it. They thrive on creating needless and constant danger, and reaping the outsized waves of negative opinions that elicits. Those "orcs" even take chances like the eve of an IAEA report to "provoke" and remind the world again how mindlessly spiteful Russians are. Because the world forgets, Zelenskyy thinks, he again reminds us how the Russians remind us of their own subhuman status, with actions like this shelling of the ZNPP that poses a real (if overstated) danger to people far and wide, who will have to take notice. 

I mean, wouldn't you want that if you were Russia? To turn as much of the world as possible against you? Keeping in mind that being Russia would entail being mindlessly evil and self-destructive like that?  Many folks are aggressively keeping that nonsense in mind.

But of course, according to the non-cartoon evidence, these attacks are largely or totally carried out by the Ukrainian side. Like the real world tends to do, that makes direct but terrible sense. And part of what makes realities like this so terrible is how they're allowed to thrive and deepen their rot under a lack of accountability. 

The "Militarization" of the ZNPP, Part 2: Russian Shelling FROM ZNPP?

September 21, 2022 

last edits 9/26

Earlier, I wrote of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) "Russian forces are accused of militarizing the site by basing forces there (seems undeniably true to some degree) and launching attacks from there (not so sure, but troubling if so - I'll have some to say on this in another post)." This is that post. 

Part one, The Battle of March 4, was originally included with this, but it seemed tedious that way, so I gave that its own post. In summary: Russian tried to force their way into the plant in the early hours of March 4. As a detailed NPR report NPR report put it "On March 3, the nuclear plant was preparing for a fight. A news release posted to its website just hours before the assault described the facility as operating normally, with its assigned Ukrainian military unit ready for combat." In the plant's publicized surveillance video, the defenders shot "missiles" or shells at the first 2 tanks to cross the perimeter, finally hitting and disabling the second one. "That marked the beginning of a fierce firefight that lasted for roughly two hours at the plant," NPR correctly notes. This can't be good for nuclear safety, but the Ukrainian side fired the first shots. And they fired some other shots too.

In review: Russian forces are seen firing tank cannons, RPGs and more in many directions, many times. This shelling damaged and set fire to the training center and administration buildings, damaged electrical lines, and disrupted sensitive systems. The surveillance video shows how it caused unclear damage and fires around the north half of Special Building 1, near reactor 5 or 6, and up on the block/dome of reactor 1 or 2, and the elevated passage to reactor 1 has 2 holes punched in it. I haven't seen visible shooting from any buildings of the plant to explain the repeated shelling of those buildings, but the Russian column did take fire from 4 visible directions, likely alongside other hits that came invisibly from these and other directions:

* from the right, disabling a tank

* left low, hitting far back

* left + fwd + high, hitting far back 

* right + fwd, hitting near 3 tanks in the front.

This resistance stopped the Russian takeover about as much as a peaceful surrender would have. To resist anyway contributed to avoidable risks and could be called reckless. No one complained about how the Ukrainian military unit occupying the nuclear plant acted to endanger it. But along with the Russians came a new and dreadful reality: the ZNPP would be occupied by military units who might put it at risk.

Marching Forth from March 4th: ZNPP is "Militarized" 

Overview map, with explanations below - NOT oriented to true north. It says it's to Sept. 4, but the most recent placed impact (star) is at the inner spray ponds yesterday (9/20 - geolocation tweet) - I added the star but forgot to change the date.

I'll start with Statement by Mikhail Ulyanov, 15 September 2022 - Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (mid.ru): 

"In this hall, there have already been calls for the "demilitarization of the ZNPP" or the creation of a kind of "demilitarized perimeter" around it. These calls are meaningless, as the station has never been militarized." 

Well, definitions vary. On the night of March 3/4, the plant was already occupied - debatably "militarized" - by a Ukrainian "assigned military unit." Russian attacks in and around the plant were in response to attacks by those forces. It was framed as dangerous and unacceptable on the Russian end, and Ukraine could be faulted for nothing. 

Later, the "assigned military unit" would be Russian, not Ukrainian. The place had suddenly been "militarized." They may not be sparking battles inside the plant, like Ukraine's garrison did, but they allegedly launched shelling attacks from there. And then we see and hear about attacks against the plant as the Russians allegedly shelled themselves in response. Clearly, Ukraine could be faulted for nothing in that absurd scenario. 

Russia's explanation for the forces at the plant are reflected in Ambassador Ulyanov's comments (continued):

"Russian law enforcement agencies at the ZNPP are represented only by units of Rosgvardia (an analogue of the French gendarmes and Italian carabinieri) and specialists from the troops of radiation, chemical and biological protection (RCBP). Rosgvardia is needed to ensure the protection of the station. CBRN specialists – to overcome the consequences of possible accidents and radiation emergencies that may result from continuous Ukrainian shelling. There are no heavy weapons and equipment on the territory of the ZNPP. Only equipment for the transportation of Rosgvardia personnel and electronic warfare equipment that helps neutralize Ukrainian drones. There are no ammunition or explosives at ZNPP, the detonation of which could pose a threat to the safety of the nuclear power plant. Thus, there were and are no military targets that could serve as a pretext for justifying Ukrainian shelling and attacks on the station."

But of course Ukrainian sources tell it differently. The New York Times would report on claims from Enerhodar mayor Dmytro Orlov, who was in exile but had contacts at the plant. "[O]ver the past three weeks" since early July, "the Russian military has parked Grad multiple rocket launchers between the reactor buildings, to protect them from retaliatory strikes." 

But the visual record can only support a single Grad launcher between the outer spray ponds. A July 22 video from the Main Intelligence Agency of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry shows a likely MLRS unit, BM21 Grad, as it's attacked by a kamikaze drone to no visible effect (below left, after it was hit). A graphic in the IAEA's September report (PDF) credited a launcher as stationed there, amid the pools, in a Maxar satellite view of August 29 (below, right, in a slightly different spot - and it's not clear what the July spot was). It's not clear if the IAEA saw it there during their visit on September 1 and 2, or if their staff who remained has seen it since.

StopFake called out "Russian propagandists" for claiming Ukraine had shelled the plant in this attack. That was "fake" because they targeted Russian equipment, not the plant, and the attack "did not take place in the immediate territory of the ZNPP." 

This launcher is on the ZNPP grounds, by most definitions, but near the eastern perimeter. There's a decent case for minimizing attacks there. It's 460m from the nearest reactor and ~600m from spent fuel storage. Spray ponds hold used water with just trace radioactivity that is by design sprayed into the air so it can cool before re-use. There's probably no danger in some of this spraying wider than usual. I marked this area yellow in the map above, for "mild" danger, and that may even exaggerate the risk. 

But if it's a fine spot to attack, it's also a fine spot to station weapons that might need attacked.

Wall Street Journal, July 5: Russian Army Turns Ukraine’s Largest Nuclear Plant Into a Military Base (archived) Russian forces at the plant "have in recent weeks deployed heavy artillery batteries and laid anti-personnel mines along the shores of the reservoir whose water cools its six reactors, according to workers, residents, Ukrainian officials, and diplomats. ... Russian forces deployed a Smerch artillery vehicle last month in the shadow of the 5.7 gigawatt complex’s striped chimneys, adding to the grad rocket launchers, tanks and personnel carriers." But there were no link or supports for the Smerch claim, and I haven't seen anything else in support. 

But a photo with the article shows "A Russian tank outside Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in a picture released mid-March." It's parked and covered, but present. Number 120 on the turret, when I hear Russia painted over its numbers. Maybe not in this case. We know at least one Russian tank was disabled very near the spot it's parked (A on the map above). It doesn't look damaged, but is it the same one? Was it there past March? Were there others? Were they used or just parked there?

Interfax reported "a kamikaze drone" was used in the July 20 attack, to hit "a car with anti-aircraft guns and a BM-21 Grad," and no other military equipment they could name. I haven't seen any more detail on this car that might have been there just to shoot down such drones that attack inside the nuclear plant.

Otherwise, satellite and drone views show just armored personnel carriers (APCs) and supply trucks, and a military tent camp that was attacked on July 20 (video) or the 19th by other reports (CNN), in the area marked C on the top map. The July 22 video linked above was mainly about the attack on the encampment, as was the Interfax report: "The Ukrainian military, with a precise strike by a kamikaze drone, destroyed a tent camp of Russian invaders near the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant," starting a fire that "could not be extinguished for a long time." As a result, Ukrainian intelligence reported, "three invaders were killed and 12 wounded," 

Below is the moment of detonation as seen in the video (black box). There's no fire afterwards, but in the end all 3 surrounding tents burned down, probably after unseen strikes following this. Dozens of people run out after this blast. It's not visibly clear if they're all soldiers or if they might include civilian specialists or others. Location:  just south of the spray ponds, not far from the Grad launcher, and some 300m from reactor 1.

A detailed NPR report provided before and after images of the site. On July 3, were a couple of supply trucks in the same area and 4 big tents, 3 of which burned down. A nearby a vehicle area was also vacated (area D above). It had included several supply trucks, some busses, and maybe a few APCs. No attacks here were shown, and the signs aren't clear, but there's a possible crater and ejected soil at the lot's north end,

Where did those vehicles go? Secret video in August (thedrive.com) and public IAEA images in September (PDF - image at right) agree that V-marked Russian military SUPPLY trucks were parked inside the blast-proof turbine hall of nuclear reactors 1 and 2. 

Ukrainian drone video from The Insider (on Twitter Aug. 6) shows several supply trucks driving into the cavernous hall of reactor 1. Add 9/26: One report I found traces a likely connection: "Russia on Wednesday (20 July) accused Ukraine of targetting a nuclear power station in the Zaporizhzhia region using drones. ... Energoatom alleged that Russian forces were demanding access to the machine halls of three reactors for storing tanks and equipment there, reported Reuters. However, the company also did not comment on the drone attack by Ukrainian forces." Good patriots, those.

The trucks got their access. Also shown entering are perhaps two "tanks," in that they're on treads. But lacking cannons, they're probably just APCs. 

Russia already stood accused of leaving "armoured personnel carriers parked recklessly near the reactors" (Daily Mail) before they tried parking them inside the houses the reactors lived in. This is all reckless because ... the things are known to spontaneously combust? No. This great crime prevented Ukrainian attacks on these particular supply trucks and APCs. Or it required much heavier weapons to actually destroy them and start fires inside the reactor housing. Maybe thinking ahead, mayor-in-exile Orlov complained to the Times "The vehicles block a fire access route ... posing a hazard to the entire plant."

Or - here's an idea - they could just leave these trucks and APCs alone. 

Alleged Attacks from the Russian-Occupied ZNPP

Back on March 4, terrible questions were raised in some minds. Would the Russians blow up the nuclear plant now that no one could stop them? Or might they attack military or civilian targets from its grounds, requiring dangerous defensive fire back into the plant? 

From my quick review, it doesn't seem they did either, even allegedly, for over 4 months. However occupied it was, the plant was allowed run with its existing Ukrainian staff, and to keep providing electricity to citizens on both sides of the line with no meltdown. 

But that didn't make the Russians look evil or insane.  Obviously, something would have to change, and it suddenly did in the middle of July. The New York Times would report "The Russians have been firing from the cover of the Zaporizhzhia station since mid-July, Ukrainian military and civilian officials said, sending rockets over the river at Nikopol and other targets." The reason seems to be the increasing use of long-range HIMARS missiles that made other firing spots too vulnerable. 

It was on July 16 that Petro Kotin, the President of “Energoatom” (the utility that runs the ZNPP) reported "The Russians have been controlling Zaporizhzhia NPP since the beginning of March. Now the occupiers are using the NPP as a bridgehead to deploy new military equipment. ... Missile complexes are brought there, from which the other side of the Dnipro is shelled – this is the territory of Nikopol.” 

This may be the one grad launcher noted above, or something wider and also real. But even if a lot of serious weapons were parked there, their mere presence is weak reason to launch dangerous attacks. What goes beyond is the claim of external attacks launched from the site or with those weapons. True or not, these claims helped justify the July 20 drone attack on a military encampment that killed 3 and wounded 12. 

Just one video that I've noticed even claims to corroborate these claims, emerging more than 6 weeks after the claims did. "Russian MLRS firing from the territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant " The Insider, September 18. - video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jSQw35mJrA. One "expert" on Russian evils, Luke Harding, advertised the video & report as "showing a #Russian multiple rocket launcher firing from the territory of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. It confirms what Kyiv has long alleged: that #Moscow is using the station for offensive military strikes across the Dnipro river"

The video was reportedly filmed the night of September 2/3, from the north, facing south across the Dnieper River. It clearly shows the smokestacks of the Zaporizhzhya Thermal Power Plant on the left. A ways west of there (to the right), rapid rocket fire angles up like a string of pearls, directed further west or maybe northwest (roughly perpendicular to the line of sight). 

The Insider wasn't so clear on what all is shown, but they asked "the Experts of the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) to study the video" and the Bellingcat-types at CIT added "to the west of the TPP is the territory of the nuclear power plant itself, but whether rockets are really launched from the territory of the station, it is impossible to establish exactly." And so they decided "the footage shows that the MLRS are located in the immediate vicinity of the power unit." 

That struck me as lazy. At best they ccould set a line of sight, not a specific area, and that only if it were set up in more detail. So I had a try at doing it right, suspecting the Insider and CIT could be shown wrong.

I started with Michael Kobs LoS analysis with compared views. My own mapping including reactors (yellow box/line) is below. The plant's six reactors are visible on the horizon, spaced so we can see each one's tallest part pretty distinctly (so they're seen neither from the side nor face-on, but more at a 45-degree angle). The firing spot lines up roughly the same width (yellow line re-done in orange) off to the left. Electric towers may be visible  - 2 faint lines marked in green - but it works better with the left-hand option, roughly lining up with the launches. This plus the stack-building lineup at the TPP (blue) suggests filming from western Dobra Nadiia, looking a bit from the left of the comparison view, and a rocket launch from ... exactly where that BM21 was seen?

That still doesn't show an area of firing but a line of sight to it - the firing is somewhere on that red line, or close to it. The firing could be just outside the grounds nearly 1km from reactor 6, or just inside the grounds south of that, or off the grounds to the north or the south. But it also passes exactly over the IAEA report's "probable BM21 Multiple Launch Rocket (MLR)" seen a few days before (Aug. 29) among the spray ponds (black circle). 

But another possible limit plays in. Noting the flares of each rocket appear dimly at the horizon and are never seen against the horizon - whatever the highest elevation is, the firing may be from the south of that.

Google Maps shows little variation in topography. The thermal plant and the nuclear plant seem to sit on artificially raised ground, but otherwise the most marked rise is the tree-lined crest before the fileds, well south of the plant. The firing may be from south of that line. 

But that would be an odd coincidence how well it lines up with the known launcher. I'm not so into coincidences, and it seems more likely than not this is the weapon and the spot used, and some closer elevation difference hides its origin. 

In Context

So Russian firing from the sensitive plant is surprisingly well illustrated on this occasion, if not quite proven. And if it happened once, it's likely enough in other cases - although it has only been documented the once that I've seen. It's far from ideal, to say the least. Even if this were rare and well-deserved retaliatory fire, it drags the nuclear plant into the fighting in a way the Russians acknowledge shouldn't be done (they take pains to deny it). 

But then, as noted above, this is just in the spray ponds area, and opinions vary if this even counts as part of the plant. When the rockets are flying, the Insider complains it's not just on the plant grounds but from "the immediate vicinity of the power unit" - just the kind of thing that makes it "impossible" for the Ukrainians to respond, as they frequently say. But when they have attacked that very spot in the past, StopFake got to point out how it was "not ... in the immediate territory of the ZNPP" at all. 

Ukrainian response to this and other alleged attacks from around the ZNPP: allegedly nothing past the July 19 attack they acknowledge, and a few they have barely denied. Otherwise Kiev says they were just watching, in terrified awe, as the Russians launched attacks from the plant and then shelled themselves in return, over and over. 

Looking into at least seven incidents with published details and images, rockets, drones and shells have hit the Russian-occupied plant in areas far from that launcher and right among the reactors, sometimes where AFVs were parked, and other times where minor damage could just keep tensions high. Impact spots I know of are marked with black stars on the top map. These have been mostly blamed on the Russians, but that's always been illogical, and the evidence seems to disagree; some attacks were done by kamikaze drone like in that July attack, and some were by artillery or rockets shown as fired from Ukrainian areas, despite Ukrainian claims (August 6 from the northwest, August 27 from the northwest or north). Some other attack analysis is pending (Sept. 1, 4, 20, maybe others).

As the statement by Mikhail Ulyanov claims: 

"According to the Ministry of Defense of Russia, since July 18, 2022, Ukrainian armed formations have shelled the territory of the ZNPP and its infrastructure more than 30 times, firing more than 120 artillery shells and using at least 16 kamikaze drones." 

"The satellite city of ZNPP Enerhodar, where the station's employees and their families live, was shelled more than 70 times during the same period (10 times from drones and more than 60 times from barrel artillery and multiple launch rocket systems). As a result of these attacks, there are casualties and injuries among the employees of the nuclear power plant and residents of the city."

International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi would say on September 9. "This is an unsustainable situation and is becoming increasingly precarious. Enerhodar has gone dark. The power plant has no offsite power. And we have seen that once infrastructure is repaired, it is damaged once again," Grossi called for "the immediate cessation of all shelling in the entire area."  (Reuters) 

Attack reports did fall off or even stop at this time, as the final reactor 6 was switched off for safety. but on the 20th, Russian-affiliated sources reported another attack. Photos show a ruptured pipe in the inner splash ponds, just 140m from special building 1, which was also reportedly damaged, along with the occupied cafeteria. Then that night, according to Ukrainian officials, Russian shelling damaged the communication equipment of reactor 6 and cut the power supply, requiring an emergency switch to diesel generators.  with the open switchgear of the ZNPP. Due to power loss, two diesel generators of the safety system for cooling the reactor were started in an emergency (hromadske.ua)

Grossi knows but cannot say who needs to stop and still hasn't. It's Kiev, not Moscow, that benefits from a situation "that cannot stand." It underline the need for change, like Russia agreeing to surrender the plant to Ukrainian militarization. Both sides claim they want the shelling to stop, but the perpetrators keep shelling while blaming the other side, probably based on a rational motive. Logically and according to much direct evidence, Ukraine is the perpetrator of this shelling. But for the Western-dominated "world community," Ukraine can do no wrong in its war with Russia, while Russia can do no right, so holding the guilty to account won't be an option for them. It was already clear that words aren't enough to stop the shelling. So far, it might be that Russian artillery and rockets - wherever they're fired from - are the only tools willing and able to stop the attacks, if only for a moment. 

The "Militarization" of the ZNPP, Part 1: The Battle of March 4

September 18, 2022 (rough, incomplete)

A week into the Russian invasion and not far from Crimea, their forces moved to seize control the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), Europe's largest. Russian control would, for one thing, deny the facility to Ukrainian forces who might have launched attacks from there, and the Russians couldn't respond without risk of a meltdown or other radiological event. And it could allow for the opposite. among other possible ulterior motives. 

The Hill would report Feb. 26: on worrying reports from Ukraine’s ministry of internal affairs   that "Russian forces have aimed one of their deadliest weapons, a multiple rocket launcher called “Grad,” at the nuclear power plant," apparently for no good reason.  Russia's Defense Ministry claimed general control on the 28th, but this was denied by Energoatom, the state utility running the plant (Daily Sabah).

Ukrainian nuclear regulators reported on March 2 that, the night before, "as a result of rocket fire, the communications network of the Zaporizhzhya NPP SE was damaged. ...The troops of the Russian Federation made repeated attempts to capture the Zaporizhzhya NPP, but the heroic efforts of the residents of the city of Energodar and the territorial self-defense forces managed to stop the advance of the Russian troops to the site of the plant."

On March 2 the head of Energoatom, Petro Kotin reported that the Russian military asked to just visit the plant and take photos there. to show their commanders as evidence that Russia controls it. But he and others didn'y buy that, and people were in the way. From the 28th and increasingly to March 3, some well-equipped "residents" or "every day Ukrainian citizens" formed an impressive blockade of the roads in Energodar, the city built up around the ZNPP.

Some blockade participants were attacked with a grenade and gunfire on video, though it's not clear what's happening off-screen. The barricades were attacked, with a huge fire captured on video chasing people back. Whatever happened there, the roadblocks were overcome before the Russian army got its access to Energodar and then to the nuclear plant, arriving around midnight on the 3rd. 

NPR published a detailed report on March 11 Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant more dangerous than first thought : NPR "On March 3, the nuclear plant was preparing for a fight. A news release posted to its website just hours before the assault described the facility as operating normally, with its assigned Ukrainian military unit ready for combat."

Ukrainian forces were at the plant, perhaps inside its boundaries, preparing for a battle there, among the delicate machinery and dangers of a nuclear meltdown. But no Western leader thought the plant needed to be "demilitarized" back then. Ukrainians had every right to fight from there and risk a meltdown that could harm people across Ukraine, Russia and Europe. It's their country, right? So with no complaints, they set to defending the plant their way.

"Just before 11:30 p.m. local time, someone began livestreaming the plant's security footage on its YouTube channel. The livestream rolled on as Russian forces began a slow and methodical advance on the plant. The column of armored vehicles, led by the tanks, used spotlights to cautiously approach the plant from the southeast along the main service road to the facility."

Full video as linked: Прямая трансляция пользователя Запорізька АЕС - YouTube - it's over 4 hours long. I watched long parts intently, but probably didn't see everything relevant. As the NPR article summarized:

"Around an hour and 20 minutes later, one of the two tanks that led the column was struck by a missile from Ukrainian forces and was disabled. That marked the beginning of a fierce firefight that lasted for roughly two hours at the plant. "

So the Ukrainian side started the shooting, albeit when the Russian invaders tried to enter the nuclear plant. This is what's seen, by a camera mainly facing east, over the area the first Russian vehicles entered. They arrive from the east on Promyslova Street, where it turns right at the plant's edge, or continues inside the plant, under no given name. This image uses a frame where a descending flare has the camera switch to day mode with color.

That tank was only struck after at least 4 misses or warning shots. These shots started just as the first tank approached the boundary, and they come visibly from the right (= roughly south). These can be seen in the video at 1:21:23, 1:21:47 1:21:54, and 1:22:12. Some shells hit objects (deliberately?) off-frame, sending up puffs of smoke. The first tank makes it in, but finally the 2nd tank is hit at 1:22:33 = 12:48 am. Soldiers run out, as it continues with secondary explosions. Somehow, this unit seems to inch forward over the next minute so it's off frame, and later it's just not in the way.

NPR: "Immediately after the tank was disabled, Russian forces returning fire appeared to hit a transmission line connected to the plant's main electrical substation. The IAEA says two of four high-voltage lines were damaged in the attack. Lyman says that these lines are essential to safe operations at the plant." 

That can be seen at 1:23:17 amid intense return fire to the right. The column slowly pushes forward after this. Over the next hour or so, some tanks are within the grounds and others lined up Promyslova Street to the east. Flashes that might be tanks attacked or attacking (I can't really tell) occur frequently, amid other visual effects. At 1:15:38 for example is the search light pointing into the camera. Many other flashes at the back of the line, in the dark distance, seem to be blasts with cascading sparks that appear in the dark with no glowing arrival to show direction. Depending on what's what, the Russian column might take a couple dozen hits from unclear directions. 

But in other cases, the direction of fire in this video can be seen. It's mostly, but not all, from the Russian column.

NPR: "Around 1 AM Heavy weapons fire from the rear of the Russian column flew in the direction of the Unit 1 reactor building. It's unclear whether the Russian troops were deliberately trying to strike more sensitive sections of the plant or whether they were returning fire from Ukrainian forces off camera."

This fire is seen at 1:24:30 (12:50 AM), to the left+forward = northwest, roughly towards reactor 1, 2, or 3. Although it's strange to think the Russians shot at the reactors just to risk a meltdown, it is visually unclear if the fire was provoked; there was no visible attack I noticed from this angle, before or after. But the shot was preceded by some sparkling blasts amid the column. Other shots are fired in this basic direction in the long parts I watched. e.g. 1:37:40-1:38:20 5+ shots to the left, 

Firing from the left against, the Russian column, is first seen, I think, at 1:25:43. That angle = roughly north, perhaps reactor 6 area, more likely an office building in the middle of the compound, or maybe outside its grounds to the north. 1:25:49 maybe the same or return fire TO the left - 1:25:53 (0:51) from left - 1:28:22, 1:28::56 to left.

Different fire from the left, higher up and more from ahead can be seen at 1:29:17 (or bottom frame above). That's still not quite reactor 1 area, but maybe around reactor 3 or the office building. 1:31:37 unclear - 1:33 heavy firing to the left after a cluster of explosions amid the column that seem to come from nowhere, but maybe from the left. 

1:56:22 a middle tank shoots a nearby car in the outer parking lot, with a sparkling impact that set off its alarm - searchlights along the parking lot's edge, a tank shot passes over at 1:56:59 - more searchlight panning - then 1:57:17 1st tank fires left, hitting the ground behind lot, near outer pipes - another shot ricochets off the fence (?) at 1:57:27 - more lights, then a shell explodes just past the fence at 1:57:38. I suspect that all had some good reason.

At several points, tank fire to the left is followed by light smoke drifting over from high on the left. The camera pans that way around 3:45 (3:12 am) - looking over special building 1 and reactor 1 - the fires are around north half of SB1, near reactor 5 or 6, and high enough around the block/dome of reactor 1 or 2 that it almost has to be something on there smoking, but lightly. Lower middle: looks like the elevated passage to reactor 1 has 2 holes punched in it, on the left (nearest the reactor).  

NPR: "The afternoon after the battle, the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine reported that the reactor compartment of Unit 1, which lay in the direction of some of the Russian fire, had sustained damage. It also reported that two shells had landed in an area used to hold old nuclear waste that lay to the north of the battle. Later statements by the regulator and the IAEA reported further damage to the power transformer for the Unit 6 reactor."

1:26:50 shooting to the right + ahead - 1:27:36 unseen impact near camera, causes shaking, then nearby smoke - likely from unseen forward tanks, but maybe for good, unseen reasons. 

Lower right area is first visible at 1:34:37 - searchlights are panning over it intently for some reason - previous attacks from here possible - light smoke - 1:36:50 training center 1st visibly hit? Smoke increases. 1:43:25 1:43:52 training center hit from a further back in the Russian column = from the east - no provoking fire that I noticed. Combined frames below show the trajectory.

I've looked at the damage to that building, thinking the fire came from the northwest (well from the right, for the left side damage in the image below), not from the east. But it's not clear just what's hit in those frames. I didn't notice any fire on a right+back trajectory, but the foremost tanks will have been just NW enough to explain what I see. Another plausible part of the explanation: some kind of snipers on the 3rd floor.

At 1:53:22 and 25 - shots fired FROM ahead and the right - both hit the pavement, with a visible puff, in between the first 3 tanks. At 1:53:50 the Russians return fire this way.

In review: Russian forces seen shooting many directions, many times, but they also take fire from 4 visible directions:

* from the right, disabling a tank

* left low, hitting far back

* left + fwd + high, hitting far back 

* right + fwd, hitting near 3 tanks in the front

* and likely other hits came invisibly from these and other directions.

I haven't seen visible fire from any buildings of the plant to explain the repeated shelling of those buildings. But one of the bigger questions is fire from inside the plant early in the battle, as it was first being provoked. The zoom setting crops off all the foreground where this would be seen, just showing from the perimeter road and past for the first 13 minutes of shooting (1:21:23-1:34:47).

3:12:10-40 training center burning fiercely - several shells into the nearer part of it gets this burning too, amid new firing on distant targets to the right/south - fire crews arriving and stopped outside the plant, at 3:24:30 (2:50 am) -  3:24:56, 3:25:48 - more glowing shells fired high and to the right - at 3:28 they fire trucks leave, turned back - it's still a battle zone. The Russians did come to occupy the plant ... but again, Ukrainian defenders fired the first and several other shots in this battle.

Ukraine's Systematic Shelling of the ZNPP? August 25-28

Ukraine's Systematic Shelling of the ZNPP? August 25-28

Posted September 15, 2022

(rough, incomplete) last edits 9/29

August 25: After weeks of shelling and drone attacks, the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) was running just 2 of six reactors, units 5 and 6. IAEA inspectors were preparing to visit the plant in a Russian-brokered deal Ukraine had long frustrated. And then fresh shelling commenced.

Clashing Reports

https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/22/09/ukraine-2ndsummaryreport_sept2022.pdf

• On 25 August, Ukraine reported that the ZNPP had temporarily lost the power provided by its last remaining operational 750 kV external power line. In the course of the day, the ZNPP lost power from this connection at least twice. The 750 kV power line was subsequently restored. During the power outages, the ZNPP remained connected to a 330 kV line from the nearby thermal power plant that could provide backup electricity if needed. Ukraine also informed the IAEA that as a result of the cuts in power delivered by the 750 kV power line, the ZNPP’s two operating reactor units had been disconnected from the electricity grid and their emergency protection systems triggered, while all safety systems remained operational. All six units remained disconnected from the grid also after the power line was restored. 

Shelling isn't mentioned as the cause, but it did happen suddenly like that.

• On 26 August, according to Ukraine, ZNPP staff began connecting Units 5 and 6 to the power grid. Power to the ZNPP was supplied by the Ukrainian energy system. Shelling damaged the water pipelines passing through the overpass that connects Unit 2 of the NPP with the special building designed for handling radioactive waste and for decontamination. The communication line with the radiation control sensors located in the special building and the ZNPP telephone line were also damaged. ZNPP operational staff commenced repairs of the pipelines.

Nothing is listed for the 27th, and no shelling on the 28th, before:

• On 28 August, an assessment of the damage caused by shelling on 25–27 August indicated that shelling hit the area of the plant’s two so-called special buildings, both located about 100 m from the reactor buildings, as well as one overpass area. Those buildings house facilities including water treatment plants, equipment repair shops and waste management facilities. Damage to some water pipelines at the site was later repaired.

•• On 27, 28 August, what? Russian sources reported Ukrainian attacks: rockets fired around reactor 6 special building 2, and spent fuel storage on the 27th,  a drone attack on spent fuel storage, on special building 1 on the 28th, as 6 projectiles landing near reactor 6 and its pumping station, This is almost totally absent from the IAEA report.

https://twitter.com/RussiaUN/status/1563614742341513217

Russia's UN Mission, August 27

"We circulated among #UNSC members a letter regarding presentation by the @mod_russia on the shelling by the AFU of the #ZNPP on August 27.

Three shells landed nearby the specialized b.2, where the storage facility of the nuclear fuel as well as hard radioactive waste is located."

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/cities-ukrainian-nuclear-plant-shelled-88969112

Aug. 28: Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said Sunday [Aug. 28] that Ukrainian forces had attacked the plant twice over the past day, and that shells fell near buildings storing reactor fuel and radioactive waste. "One projectile fell in the area of the sixth power unit, and the other five in front of the sixth unit pumping station, which provides cooling for this reactor,” Konashenkov said, adding that radiation levels were normal."

"The U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency also reported Sunday that radiation levels were normal, that two of the Zaporizhzhia plant's six reactors were operating and that while no complete assessment had yet been made, recent fighting had damaged a water pipeline, since repaired."

"In another apparent attack Sunday [the 28th], Russian forces shot down an armed Ukrainian drone targeting one of the Zaporizhzhia plant's spent fuel storage sites, a local official said. Vladimir Rogov, 

a Russian-installed regional official, said on the Telegram messaging app that the drone crashed 

onto a building's roof, not causing any significant damage or injuring anyone."

https://twitter.com/Andjela_Sipovac/status/1563530508079771650

Aug. 27, around 5 pm in Ukraine, a Russian statement translated to Serbian in a series of tweets, then to English, includes: "During the past day, artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shelled the territory of the station three times. It was fired a total of 17 shells, four of which hit the roof of the special building number 1, where 168 assemblies with American nuclear fuel of the Westinghouse company are stored. Another ten shells exploded 30 meters from the dry storage of spent nuclear fuel, and three exploded in the zone of the special building number 2, which houses the storage of fresh nuclear fuel of the TVEL company and the storage of solid radioactive waste. The shelling of the nuclear power plant by the Ukrainian artillery was carried out from the area of the Marganec settlement of the Dnipropetrovsk region. During the counter-battery fight in that area, an American howitzer M 777 was identified and destroyed. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11159707/Shelling-leaves-HOLES-roof-nuclear-power-plant-Putins-forces-blame-Ukraine.html

Daily Mail, 30 August: "The Russian-installed city authorities said two 155mm shells fired from the city of Nikopol in Ukrainian-held territory exploded near a spent fuel storage building at the plant, the agency added." 

"In return, Ukrainian authorities accuse the Russians of setting up military installations next to the reactors and using them as nuclear hostages from which to shell Ukrainian positions."

They didn't even deny the attacks? Twitter search for ZNPP over Aug. 25-28: ZNPP until:2022-08-28 since:2022-08-25 - Twitter Search / Twitter - Russia had photos of fresh damage (see below) and a story to explain them. Ukraine had barely any allegations and zero images I could find. One exception at least: Hromadske, 8/27: "Over the past day, the Russian military has repeatedly shelled the ZNPP site, the damage is currently being investigated, Enerhoatom reports." 

Otherwise, Ukraine didn't even publish any denials I could find; instead, they were eager about claims by some plant employees that the Russians were torturing them, to hide the facts in advance of the AEA visit. They didn't explain how cameras were also pressed into spreading Russia's lies.

Cameras Not Lying: Special Building 1

What we can see is fresh damage in "the area of the plant’s two so-called special buildings, both located about 100 m from the reactor buildings, as well as one overpass area. Those buildings house facilities including water treatment plants, equipment repair shops and waste management facilities." - probably just refers to the whole area of the buildings, but specifically, Special Building 1, - 3 roof impacts, a later one included for reference, along with alleged UAV crash site, and damaged overpass indicated entirely, now knowing the spot, but suggesting the red box - two unusually large dark spots appear with some odd light patch at a familiar angle, in an area that fits the pattern otherwise.  

Impact A is across from reactor block 2 - B is similar but different; at B, the green lines of acute damage curve with the red curve of burnt area - But at A, the green curves against the same red arc. This had me confused how to read them, but the satellite view's similarity in burn arcs is so clear and consistent, it suggests there's a minor detail at play, like the roof's waves or ridges - A is on an up-slope vs. B on a downslope, for a drone coming from the northeast. At A, the upslope catches more of the fireball, for more burn marks to the front.

Alleged crash site of the downed UAV is marked, based on an Aug. 29 Telegram post: "The downed 🇺🇦 kamikaze drone that tried to attack the ZNPP. fell on the roof of the building of the NPP. No infrastructure damage. The intended target was a storage facility for spent #nuclear_fuel." https://t.me/intelslava/36118 and https://twitter.com/owhy3/status/1564887299632300032

The drone:

Its crash site: view on left includes reactor block 1 and then 6 electric pylons that can be found lining up to the south of that. The busy cluster of vent pipes here can only be the elevated middle of Special Building 1, where a dark splatter like this can be made out between matching vents, as marked on the maps here.

The suggested trajectory for impacts A, B and C, shown here on a north-rated crop, is from the NNE. But that's probably because the drone was flying there and fired straight ahead. So impacts A, B and C were most likely hit in reverse alphabetical order before the drone was brought down, fitting in the same line as everything else, and still northeast of most impacts. 

Impact D isn't there yet, only shown as new on September 4 or 5. It happens to have the same basic shape and suggested trajectory, but the relevance of that is unclear. The elevated passage (lower left) reportedly damaged earlier - on the 26th, so also irrelevant how close it is. But note that makes three (3) attacks in this small area in ten days.

Add 9/25: this attack used kamikaze drones or Howitzer cannon, or just one drone plus howitzer cannon ... unclear reports. But next to the southern 2 impacts ...

... a blown-off set of wings like seen on the Polish-made and Ukrainian-fielded "Warmate" drone used in attacks on the plant. The photographed remains of the shot-down one seem to match. Another piece shown compares well to the same found after another drone headed to the plant was shot down on the 31st, and identified as a Warmate. So the downed one probably didn't launch anything - they just carry explosives in the nosecone and destroy themselves on impact - it was probably one of four sent, with the other three hitting their target, the roof of this sensitive building. 

Cameras Not Lying: Around Reactor 6, S.B. 2 

We heard about six impacts at reactor 6 and its pumping station on the 28th, but any damage was initially unclear in the few satellite views I'd seen, In the satellite views from the next day, there does seem to be a dark smudge on the pavement close to the reactor, and a missing vent pipe (?) on the adjacent building (pumping station?) - the others all have three pipes. These might suggest impacts, but perhaps both of these signs are also visible back on August 19. If so, that might be 2 attacks minimum, although any 8/29 attack left even less sign. 

There's no visible damage to the roof of adjacent Special Building 2. But some broken windows in the overpass connecting that to the reactor occurred at some point. These are not visible at all from space, but were photographed by the IAEA team when they visited Sept. 1 and 2 (see report). 

The angled smudge by reactor 6 isn't very clear, but it seems linear. If the trajectory is perpendicular to that, and if it was steady the whole way, then it came from the north, around Chervonohryhorivka. That would explain an artillery shell or unguided rocket, but for a guided missile or drone, it could only show the final trajectory, not point of origin.

Finally, I found some more detail with images, but for an attack the day before, via Russia at the United Nations, @RussiaUN on Twitter, Aug 27. In Ukrainian shelling of the ZNPP that day, "Three shells landed nearby the specialized b.2, where the storage facility of the nuclear fuel as well as hard radioactive waste is located." Three photographs were included - small versions below with where I place them on the map. I think we see 2 impacts, and perhaps the effects of 3, and they're even faintly visible in the shadows and from orbit: one marked red hit under the elevated passage that damaged a tree, perhaps the windows we've seen, plus water-carrying pipes, and windows on the special building and connecting passage. Note that AFVs were seen nearby on the 29th, were probably nearby on the 27th, and were likely the targets of this strike. The other rocket impact (yellow) is almost against the north wall of the special building. No weapon remnants are visible, and the exact kind isn't even stated.

Both impacts suggest the same trajectory - an eyeballed estimate is included for each. These trajectories - not exact but close - point less to Nikopol than to Prydniprovske, a bit to its east. 

Two 155mm shells "fired from the city of Nikopol" also landed near a spent fuel storage in these days, per reports. I haven't seen any images to support that part, but it could be. They would be a bit east of the impacts highlighted above, probably on the same line. We've seen a 220mm rocket - also from the Nikopol/Prydniprovske area - hit next to the storage site back on August 6, with a trajectory that's very similar, but a bit more southerly. Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Ukraine's Systematic Shelling of the ZNPP? August 5-7 (libyancivilwar.blogspot.com)

9/29 Update: The smudge by reactor 6 IS a thing, of some interest to folks on the ground. Some footage in this WION Sept. 2 video shows IAEA's Grossi with the Russian expert looking at what seems like a strip of concrete rubble with a worse patch in the middle, flanked by the marks of a detonation fireball in extended but light contact (forward side, SW) and a solid stripe more acutely burned on the backside.

This supports the reading I had, pointing nearly to Marganets/ Marhanets (see above). This was said to be the attack origin on the 27th, hitting nearby. "The shelling of the nuclear power plant by the Ukrainian artillery was carried out from the area of the Marganec settlement of the Dnipropetrovsk region. During the counter-battery fight in that area, an American howitzer M 777 was identified and destroyed." 

Likely this is all from the same attack from the same direction, using 155mm cannon shells. Previously, I guessed a NW origin, but the signs could fit north just as well. For impact 3, there are signs of a fireball against the special building's north wall, and the full damage is not shown - For impact 2, damage high up on the tree fits better with a trajectory aiming more towards it, or more from the north. The back of SB2, walkway and pipes (orange) might then require a 4th impact, which might have happened, somewhere under that big puddle.

9/29 add: there was an August 29 attack also reported! Russian Mission in Vienna, Aug. 30 - https://twitter.com/mission_rf/status/1564707597810368514

"Yet another attack against ZNPP by the armed formations of Ukraine is confirmed. 

On August 29 they used both artillery shells and kamikaze drones

Regrettably Ukrainian attempts to damage ZNPP continue even during the @iaeaorg mission"

4 afternoon photos are included, On the southern roof of Special Building 1, across from reactors 1 and 2, we see a set of UAV wing broken off, some scattered debris, an undetonated (RDX?) warhead broken off, and no sign of fresh building damage. Either it's not shown, or it was only attempted damage.