Ukraine's Systematic Shelling of the ZNPP? August 25-28

Ukraine's Systematic Shelling of the ZNPP? August 25-28

Posted September 15, 2022

(rough, incomplete) last edits 9/29

August 25: After weeks of shelling and drone attacks, the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) was running just 2 of six reactors, units 5 and 6. IAEA inspectors were preparing to visit the plant in a Russian-brokered deal Ukraine had long frustrated. And then fresh shelling commenced.

Clashing Reports

https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/22/09/ukraine-2ndsummaryreport_sept2022.pdf

• On 25 August, Ukraine reported that the ZNPP had temporarily lost the power provided by its last remaining operational 750 kV external power line. In the course of the day, the ZNPP lost power from this connection at least twice. The 750 kV power line was subsequently restored. During the power outages, the ZNPP remained connected to a 330 kV line from the nearby thermal power plant that could provide backup electricity if needed. Ukraine also informed the IAEA that as a result of the cuts in power delivered by the 750 kV power line, the ZNPP’s two operating reactor units had been disconnected from the electricity grid and their emergency protection systems triggered, while all safety systems remained operational. All six units remained disconnected from the grid also after the power line was restored. 

Shelling isn't mentioned as the cause, but it did happen suddenly like that.

• On 26 August, according to Ukraine, ZNPP staff began connecting Units 5 and 6 to the power grid. Power to the ZNPP was supplied by the Ukrainian energy system. Shelling damaged the water pipelines passing through the overpass that connects Unit 2 of the NPP with the special building designed for handling radioactive waste and for decontamination. The communication line with the radiation control sensors located in the special building and the ZNPP telephone line were also damaged. ZNPP operational staff commenced repairs of the pipelines.

Nothing is listed for the 27th, and no shelling on the 28th, before:

• On 28 August, an assessment of the damage caused by shelling on 25–27 August indicated that shelling hit the area of the plant’s two so-called special buildings, both located about 100 m from the reactor buildings, as well as one overpass area. Those buildings house facilities including water treatment plants, equipment repair shops and waste management facilities. Damage to some water pipelines at the site was later repaired.

•• On 27, 28 August, what? Russian sources reported Ukrainian attacks: rockets fired around reactor 6 special building 2, and spent fuel storage on the 27th,  a drone attack on spent fuel storage, on special building 1 on the 28th, as 6 projectiles landing near reactor 6 and its pumping station, This is almost totally absent from the IAEA report.

https://twitter.com/RussiaUN/status/1563614742341513217

Russia's UN Mission, August 27

"We circulated among #UNSC members a letter regarding presentation by the @mod_russia on the shelling by the AFU of the #ZNPP on August 27.

Three shells landed nearby the specialized b.2, where the storage facility of the nuclear fuel as well as hard radioactive waste is located."

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/cities-ukrainian-nuclear-plant-shelled-88969112

Aug. 28: Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said Sunday [Aug. 28] that Ukrainian forces had attacked the plant twice over the past day, and that shells fell near buildings storing reactor fuel and radioactive waste. "One projectile fell in the area of the sixth power unit, and the other five in front of the sixth unit pumping station, which provides cooling for this reactor,” Konashenkov said, adding that radiation levels were normal."

"The U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency also reported Sunday that radiation levels were normal, that two of the Zaporizhzhia plant's six reactors were operating and that while no complete assessment had yet been made, recent fighting had damaged a water pipeline, since repaired."

"In another apparent attack Sunday [the 28th], Russian forces shot down an armed Ukrainian drone targeting one of the Zaporizhzhia plant's spent fuel storage sites, a local official said. Vladimir Rogov, 

a Russian-installed regional official, said on the Telegram messaging app that the drone crashed 

onto a building's roof, not causing any significant damage or injuring anyone."

https://twitter.com/Andjela_Sipovac/status/1563530508079771650

Aug. 27, around 5 pm in Ukraine, a Russian statement translated to Serbian in a series of tweets, then to English, includes: "During the past day, artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shelled the territory of the station three times. It was fired a total of 17 shells, four of which hit the roof of the special building number 1, where 168 assemblies with American nuclear fuel of the Westinghouse company are stored. Another ten shells exploded 30 meters from the dry storage of spent nuclear fuel, and three exploded in the zone of the special building number 2, which houses the storage of fresh nuclear fuel of the TVEL company and the storage of solid radioactive waste. The shelling of the nuclear power plant by the Ukrainian artillery was carried out from the area of the Marganec settlement of the Dnipropetrovsk region. During the counter-battery fight in that area, an American howitzer M 777 was identified and destroyed. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11159707/Shelling-leaves-HOLES-roof-nuclear-power-plant-Putins-forces-blame-Ukraine.html

Daily Mail, 30 August: "The Russian-installed city authorities said two 155mm shells fired from the city of Nikopol in Ukrainian-held territory exploded near a spent fuel storage building at the plant, the agency added." 

"In return, Ukrainian authorities accuse the Russians of setting up military installations next to the reactors and using them as nuclear hostages from which to shell Ukrainian positions."

They didn't even deny the attacks? Twitter search for ZNPP over Aug. 25-28: ZNPP until:2022-08-28 since:2022-08-25 - Twitter Search / Twitter - Russia had photos of fresh damage (see below) and a story to explain them. Ukraine had barely any allegations and zero images I could find. One exception at least: Hromadske, 8/27: "Over the past day, the Russian military has repeatedly shelled the ZNPP site, the damage is currently being investigated, Enerhoatom reports." 

Otherwise, Ukraine didn't even publish any denials I could find; instead, they were eager about claims by some plant employees that the Russians were torturing them, to hide the facts in advance of the AEA visit. They didn't explain how cameras were also pressed into spreading Russia's lies.

Cameras Not Lying: Special Building 1

What we can see is fresh damage in "the area of the plant’s two so-called special buildings, both located about 100 m from the reactor buildings, as well as one overpass area. Those buildings house facilities including water treatment plants, equipment repair shops and waste management facilities." - probably just refers to the whole area of the buildings, but specifically, Special Building 1, - 3 roof impacts, a later one included for reference, along with alleged UAV crash site, and damaged overpass indicated entirely, now knowing the spot, but suggesting the red box - two unusually large dark spots appear with some odd light patch at a familiar angle, in an area that fits the pattern otherwise.  

Impact A is across from reactor block 2 - B is similar but different; at B, the green lines of acute damage curve with the red curve of burnt area - But at A, the green curves against the same red arc. This had me confused how to read them, but the satellite view's similarity in burn arcs is so clear and consistent, it suggests there's a minor detail at play, like the roof's waves or ridges - A is on an up-slope vs. B on a downslope, for a drone coming from the northeast. At A, the upslope catches more of the fireball, for more burn marks to the front.

Alleged crash site of the downed UAV is marked, based on an Aug. 29 Telegram post: "The downed 🇺🇦 kamikaze drone that tried to attack the ZNPP. fell on the roof of the building of the NPP. No infrastructure damage. The intended target was a storage facility for spent #nuclear_fuel." https://t.me/intelslava/36118 and https://twitter.com/owhy3/status/1564887299632300032

The drone:

Its crash site: view on left includes reactor block 1 and then 6 electric pylons that can be found lining up to the south of that. The busy cluster of vent pipes here can only be the elevated middle of Special Building 1, where a dark splatter like this can be made out between matching vents, as marked on the maps here.

The suggested trajectory for impacts A, B and C, shown here on a north-rated crop, is from the NNE. But that's probably because the drone was flying there and fired straight ahead. So impacts A, B and C were most likely hit in reverse alphabetical order before the drone was brought down, fitting in the same line as everything else, and still northeast of most impacts. 

Impact D isn't there yet, only shown as new on September 4 or 5. It happens to have the same basic shape and suggested trajectory, but the relevance of that is unclear. The elevated passage (lower left) reportedly damaged earlier - on the 26th, so also irrelevant how close it is. But note that makes three (3) attacks in this small area in ten days.

Add 9/25: this attack used kamikaze drones or Howitzer cannon, or just one drone plus howitzer cannon ... unclear reports. But next to the southern 2 impacts ...

... a blown-off set of wings like seen on the Polish-made and Ukrainian-fielded "Warmate" drone used in attacks on the plant. The photographed remains of the shot-down one seem to match. Another piece shown compares well to the same found after another drone headed to the plant was shot down on the 31st, and identified as a Warmate. So the downed one probably didn't launch anything - they just carry explosives in the nosecone and destroy themselves on impact - it was probably one of four sent, with the other three hitting their target, the roof of this sensitive building. 

Cameras Not Lying: Around Reactor 6, S.B. 2 

We heard about six impacts at reactor 6 and its pumping station on the 28th, but any damage was initially unclear in the few satellite views I'd seen, In the satellite views from the next day, there does seem to be a dark smudge on the pavement close to the reactor, and a missing vent pipe (?) on the adjacent building (pumping station?) - the others all have three pipes. These might suggest impacts, but perhaps both of these signs are also visible back on August 19. If so, that might be 2 attacks minimum, although any 8/29 attack left even less sign. 

There's no visible damage to the roof of adjacent Special Building 2. But some broken windows in the overpass connecting that to the reactor occurred at some point. These are not visible at all from space, but were photographed by the IAEA team when they visited Sept. 1 and 2 (see report). 

The angled smudge by reactor 6 isn't very clear, but it seems linear. If the trajectory is perpendicular to that, and if it was steady the whole way, then it came from the north, around Chervonohryhorivka. That would explain an artillery shell or unguided rocket, but for a guided missile or drone, it could only show the final trajectory, not point of origin.

Finally, I found some more detail with images, but for an attack the day before, via Russia at the United Nations, @RussiaUN on Twitter, Aug 27. In Ukrainian shelling of the ZNPP that day, "Three shells landed nearby the specialized b.2, where the storage facility of the nuclear fuel as well as hard radioactive waste is located." Three photographs were included - small versions below with where I place them on the map. I think we see 2 impacts, and perhaps the effects of 3, and they're even faintly visible in the shadows and from orbit: one marked red hit under the elevated passage that damaged a tree, perhaps the windows we've seen, plus water-carrying pipes, and windows on the special building and connecting passage. Note that AFVs were seen nearby on the 29th, were probably nearby on the 27th, and were likely the targets of this strike. The other rocket impact (yellow) is almost against the north wall of the special building. No weapon remnants are visible, and the exact kind isn't even stated.

Both impacts suggest the same trajectory - an eyeballed estimate is included for each. These trajectories - not exact but close - point less to Nikopol than to Prydniprovske, a bit to its east. 

Two 155mm shells "fired from the city of Nikopol" also landed near a spent fuel storage in these days, per reports. I haven't seen any images to support that part, but it could be. They would be a bit east of the impacts highlighted above, probably on the same line. We've seen a 220mm rocket - also from the Nikopol/Prydniprovske area - hit next to the storage site back on August 6, with a trajectory that's very similar, but a bit more southerly. Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Ukraine's Systematic Shelling of the ZNPP? August 5-7 (libyancivilwar.blogspot.com)

9/29 Update: The smudge by reactor 6 IS a thing, of some interest to folks on the ground. Some footage in this WION Sept. 2 video shows IAEA's Grossi with the Russian expert looking at what seems like a strip of concrete rubble with a worse patch in the middle, flanked by the marks of a detonation fireball in extended but light contact (forward side, SW) and a solid stripe more acutely burned on the backside.

This supports the reading I had, pointing nearly to Marganets/ Marhanets (see above). This was said to be the attack origin on the 27th, hitting nearby. "The shelling of the nuclear power plant by the Ukrainian artillery was carried out from the area of the Marganec settlement of the Dnipropetrovsk region. During the counter-battery fight in that area, an American howitzer M 777 was identified and destroyed." 

Likely this is all from the same attack from the same direction, using 155mm cannon shells. Previously, I guessed a NW origin, but the signs could fit north just as well. For impact 3, there are signs of a fireball against the special building's north wall, and the full damage is not shown - For impact 2, damage high up on the tree fits better with a trajectory aiming more towards it, or more from the north. The back of SB2, walkway and pipes (orange) might then require a 4th impact, which might have happened, somewhere under that big puddle.

9/29 add: there was an August 29 attack also reported! Russian Mission in Vienna, Aug. 30 - https://twitter.com/mission_rf/status/1564707597810368514

"Yet another attack against ZNPP by the armed formations of Ukraine is confirmed. 

On August 29 they used both artillery shells and kamikaze drones

Regrettably Ukrainian attempts to damage ZNPP continue even during the @iaeaorg mission"

4 afternoon photos are included, On the southern roof of Special Building 1, across from reactors 1 and 2, we see a set of UAV wing broken off, some scattered debris, an undetonated (RDX?) warhead broken off, and no sign of fresh building damage. Either it's not shown, or it was only attempted damage.