The "Militarization" of the ZNPP, Part 1: The Battle of March 4

September 18, 2022 (rough, incomplete)

A week into the Russian invasion and not far from Crimea, their forces moved to seize control the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), Europe's largest. Russian control would, for one thing, deny the facility to Ukrainian forces who might have launched attacks from there, and the Russians couldn't respond without risk of a meltdown or other radiological event. And it could allow for the opposite. among other possible ulterior motives. 

The Hill would report Feb. 26: on worrying reports from Ukraine’s ministry of internal affairs   that "Russian forces have aimed one of their deadliest weapons, a multiple rocket launcher called “Grad,” at the nuclear power plant," apparently for no good reason.  Russia's Defense Ministry claimed general control on the 28th, but this was denied by Energoatom, the state utility running the plant (Daily Sabah).

Ukrainian nuclear regulators reported on March 2 that, the night before, "as a result of rocket fire, the communications network of the Zaporizhzhya NPP SE was damaged. ...The troops of the Russian Federation made repeated attempts to capture the Zaporizhzhya NPP, but the heroic efforts of the residents of the city of Energodar and the territorial self-defense forces managed to stop the advance of the Russian troops to the site of the plant."

On March 2 the head of Energoatom, Petro Kotin reported that the Russian military asked to just visit the plant and take photos there. to show their commanders as evidence that Russia controls it. But he and others didn'y buy that, and people were in the way. From the 28th and increasingly to March 3, some well-equipped "residents" or "every day Ukrainian citizens" formed an impressive blockade of the roads in Energodar, the city built up around the ZNPP.

Some blockade participants were attacked with a grenade and gunfire on video, though it's not clear what's happening off-screen. The barricades were attacked, with a huge fire captured on video chasing people back. Whatever happened there, the roadblocks were overcome before the Russian army got its access to Energodar and then to the nuclear plant, arriving around midnight on the 3rd. 

NPR published a detailed report on March 11 Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant more dangerous than first thought : NPR "On March 3, the nuclear plant was preparing for a fight. A news release posted to its website just hours before the assault described the facility as operating normally, with its assigned Ukrainian military unit ready for combat."

Ukrainian forces were at the plant, perhaps inside its boundaries, preparing for a battle there, among the delicate machinery and dangers of a nuclear meltdown. But no Western leader thought the plant needed to be "demilitarized" back then. Ukrainians had every right to fight from there and risk a meltdown that could harm people across Ukraine, Russia and Europe. It's their country, right? So with no complaints, they set to defending the plant their way.

"Just before 11:30 p.m. local time, someone began livestreaming the plant's security footage on its YouTube channel. The livestream rolled on as Russian forces began a slow and methodical advance on the plant. The column of armored vehicles, led by the tanks, used spotlights to cautiously approach the plant from the southeast along the main service road to the facility."

Full video as linked: Прямая трансляция пользователя Запорізька АЕС - YouTube - it's over 4 hours long. I watched long parts intently, but probably didn't see everything relevant. As the NPR article summarized:

"Around an hour and 20 minutes later, one of the two tanks that led the column was struck by a missile from Ukrainian forces and was disabled. That marked the beginning of a fierce firefight that lasted for roughly two hours at the plant. "

So the Ukrainian side started the shooting, albeit when the Russian invaders tried to enter the nuclear plant. This is what's seen, by a camera mainly facing east, over the area the first Russian vehicles entered. They arrive from the east on Promyslova Street, where it turns right at the plant's edge, or continues inside the plant, under no given name. This image uses a frame where a descending flare has the camera switch to day mode with color.

That tank was only struck after at least 4 misses or warning shots. These shots started just as the first tank approached the boundary, and they come visibly from the right (= roughly south). These can be seen in the video at 1:21:23, 1:21:47 1:21:54, and 1:22:12. Some shells hit objects (deliberately?) off-frame, sending up puffs of smoke. The first tank makes it in, but finally the 2nd tank is hit at 1:22:33 = 12:48 am. Soldiers run out, as it continues with secondary explosions. Somehow, this unit seems to inch forward over the next minute so it's off frame, and later it's just not in the way.

NPR: "Immediately after the tank was disabled, Russian forces returning fire appeared to hit a transmission line connected to the plant's main electrical substation. The IAEA says two of four high-voltage lines were damaged in the attack. Lyman says that these lines are essential to safe operations at the plant." 

That can be seen at 1:23:17 amid intense return fire to the right. The column slowly pushes forward after this. Over the next hour or so, some tanks are within the grounds and others lined up Promyslova Street to the east. Flashes that might be tanks attacked or attacking (I can't really tell) occur frequently, amid other visual effects. At 1:15:38 for example is the search light pointing into the camera. Many other flashes at the back of the line, in the dark distance, seem to be blasts with cascading sparks that appear in the dark with no glowing arrival to show direction. Depending on what's what, the Russian column might take a couple dozen hits from unclear directions. 

But in other cases, the direction of fire in this video can be seen. It's mostly, but not all, from the Russian column.

NPR: "Around 1 AM Heavy weapons fire from the rear of the Russian column flew in the direction of the Unit 1 reactor building. It's unclear whether the Russian troops were deliberately trying to strike more sensitive sections of the plant or whether they were returning fire from Ukrainian forces off camera."

This fire is seen at 1:24:30 (12:50 AM), to the left+forward = northwest, roughly towards reactor 1, 2, or 3. Although it's strange to think the Russians shot at the reactors just to risk a meltdown, it is visually unclear if the fire was provoked; there was no visible attack I noticed from this angle, before or after. But the shot was preceded by some sparkling blasts amid the column. Other shots are fired in this basic direction in the long parts I watched. e.g. 1:37:40-1:38:20 5+ shots to the left, 

Firing from the left against, the Russian column, is first seen, I think, at 1:25:43. That angle = roughly north, perhaps reactor 6 area, more likely an office building in the middle of the compound, or maybe outside its grounds to the north. 1:25:49 maybe the same or return fire TO the left - 1:25:53 (0:51) from left - 1:28:22, 1:28::56 to left.

Different fire from the left, higher up and more from ahead can be seen at 1:29:17 (or bottom frame above). That's still not quite reactor 1 area, but maybe around reactor 3 or the office building. 1:31:37 unclear - 1:33 heavy firing to the left after a cluster of explosions amid the column that seem to come from nowhere, but maybe from the left. 

1:56:22 a middle tank shoots a nearby car in the outer parking lot, with a sparkling impact that set off its alarm - searchlights along the parking lot's edge, a tank shot passes over at 1:56:59 - more searchlight panning - then 1:57:17 1st tank fires left, hitting the ground behind lot, near outer pipes - another shot ricochets off the fence (?) at 1:57:27 - more lights, then a shell explodes just past the fence at 1:57:38. I suspect that all had some good reason.

At several points, tank fire to the left is followed by light smoke drifting over from high on the left. The camera pans that way around 3:45 (3:12 am) - looking over special building 1 and reactor 1 - the fires are around north half of SB1, near reactor 5 or 6, and high enough around the block/dome of reactor 1 or 2 that it almost has to be something on there smoking, but lightly. Lower middle: looks like the elevated passage to reactor 1 has 2 holes punched in it, on the left (nearest the reactor).  

NPR: "The afternoon after the battle, the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine reported that the reactor compartment of Unit 1, which lay in the direction of some of the Russian fire, had sustained damage. It also reported that two shells had landed in an area used to hold old nuclear waste that lay to the north of the battle. Later statements by the regulator and the IAEA reported further damage to the power transformer for the Unit 6 reactor."

1:26:50 shooting to the right + ahead - 1:27:36 unseen impact near camera, causes shaking, then nearby smoke - likely from unseen forward tanks, but maybe for good, unseen reasons. 

Lower right area is first visible at 1:34:37 - searchlights are panning over it intently for some reason - previous attacks from here possible - light smoke - 1:36:50 training center 1st visibly hit? Smoke increases. 1:43:25 1:43:52 training center hit from a further back in the Russian column = from the east - no provoking fire that I noticed. Combined frames below show the trajectory.

I've looked at the damage to that building, thinking the fire came from the northwest (well from the right, for the left side damage in the image below), not from the east. But it's not clear just what's hit in those frames. I didn't notice any fire on a right+back trajectory, but the foremost tanks will have been just NW enough to explain what I see. Another plausible part of the explanation: some kind of snipers on the 3rd floor.

At 1:53:22 and 25 - shots fired FROM ahead and the right - both hit the pavement, with a visible puff, in between the first 3 tanks. At 1:53:50 the Russians return fire this way.

In review: Russian forces seen shooting many directions, many times, but they also take fire from 4 visible directions:

* from the right, disabling a tank

* left low, hitting far back

* left + fwd + high, hitting far back 

* right + fwd, hitting near 3 tanks in the front

* and likely other hits came invisibly from these and other directions.

I haven't seen visible fire from any buildings of the plant to explain the repeated shelling of those buildings. But one of the bigger questions is fire from inside the plant early in the battle, as it was first being provoked. The zoom setting crops off all the foreground where this would be seen, just showing from the perimeter road and past for the first 13 minutes of shooting (1:21:23-1:34:47).

3:12:10-40 training center burning fiercely - several shells into the nearer part of it gets this burning too, amid new firing on distant targets to the right/south - fire crews arriving and stopped outside the plant, at 3:24:30 (2:50 am) -  3:24:56, 3:25:48 - more glowing shells fired high and to the right - at 3:28 they fire trucks leave, turned back - it's still a battle zone. The Russians did come to occupy the plant ... but again, Ukrainian defenders fired the first and several other shots in this battle.