Attacks of September 4/5

Ukraine's Systematic Shelling of the ZNPP: Attacks of September 4/5

September 26, 2022 (rough, incomplete) 

last edits 9/27

Clashing Reports

In the IAEA's September report (PDF), they relate how:

• On 4 September, Ukraine reported further shelling impacting the top of Special Building 1, the railway/road in front of Reactor Building 2, and an elevated walkway for personnel between Buildings 2 and 3.

I can't find any public announcement to this effect on the 4th, but that might be reported to IAEA on the 4th, or it's some kind of time zone issue. "On Sunday (4 Sept.), Russia’s Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov announced that Russian forces thwarted an attempt by the Ukrainian army to attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which remains in normal condition, with eight drones." (IPE Club) But that's a different story. "Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that approached the nuclear plant were “blocked by Russian electronic warfare equipment,” Konashenkov specified, adding that Ukrainian forces also launched homing grenades at the facility." 

As for the successful attack with the described damage, others say it happened on the 5th. Sources with these details and photos to match (see below) appeared only on the afternoon of the 5th, although they were initially unclear as to just when the event happened. 

Vladimir Rogov, a member of the Russian-affiliated local administration in Energodar, wrote on his Telegram channel the earliest mention I've found with the right details: Telegram: Contact @vrogov 7:32 AM here - 5:32 PM in Ukraine. 

"The consequences of artillery shelling by militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the Zaporizhzhya NPP. Artillery strikes were recorded in the following places: special building of the nuclear power plant, communication overlap to the right of the special buildings, concrete fence. A container with distilled water was damaged in the immediate vicinity of the second power unit. There were no casualties."

Telegram: Contact @rian_ru 7:34 = 5:34: "A new Ukrainian strike hit a special building of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, and a tank with distilled water was also damaged in the immediate vicinity of the second power unit, local authorities said." This is the earliest post I've seen to include photos, four of them - the first 4 shown below. Zaporijie24 posting (link f/c) adds at least one other photo of the water tank leaking (5th photo below).

Other sources with the photos and the "Russian" story: life.ru Sept. 5 - topwar.ru Sept. 5 - southfront.org Sept. 5, adding "One of the power units of the Zaporozhye NPP is working at 80% as a result of the shelling by the AFU." 

The solar elevation for the roof photo is about 27 deg. = 4:27 PM on Sept. 5, give or take a few minutes. ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory - Global Radiation and Aerosols (noaa.gov) That's about an hour before that first posting, which makes sense. The damage could be from minutes before this, or the day before, etc. But it can't come any later. Same goes for the photo: it might have been taken the day before. But soon before posting makes the most sense.

Add 9/27: It's not crucial but interesting, and I wanted to check the time better: a straight ellipse may not capture the perspective. So ...

I took the wide photo atop a Maxar satellite view, perspective skewed and scaled it until the clear edge, start of green patches, and bases of the 3 nearest pipes all matched the flat view. The structure near us also lines up pretty well. It got fuzzy, but now that shadow - or any of the 3 - can be read like a sun dial. 

shadow is 47° from building north (47° from vertical here) 

building north is 21° clockwise from true 

combined: shadow runs 68° from north.

Inverted = solar azimuth 248° (sun in that direction)

NOAA solar calculator says that that would happen at 4:24 PM. Damn. 

Neither of these is totally exact, but there's the spread: 

4:24-4:27, give or take 2 minutes on each end = 4:22 to 4:29 for sure. (end 9/27)

Soon after that first posting, the same photos appeared as proof of a Russian attack that occurred "literally half an hour ago" or about an hour after the photos of the damage were taken. ТРУХ English, 5:50: "It is reported that literally half an hour ago the invaders again fired at the ZNPP." Guessing 12 minutes before first posting (?), that would be about 5:20. Post includes one photo, another in a reply. - https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1566800948546228225

5:55 PM, XD DNEPR (454,224 subscribers): "Literally half an hour ago, the occupiers again shelled the ZNPP." Damage is cited as "local "authorities" reported." - https://t.me/hyevuy_dnepr/35355

This post was cited, along with the photos, by others like Ukrainian News24 the same minute ("The Russians continue to engage in nuclear terrorism" "literally half an hour ago"), and Euromaidan Press hours later ("Russian forces continue attacks" on the plant, citing XD DNEPR).

Aside from "shelling" and "artillery" the exact weapon used is not clear in the local reports or the uninformed pro-Kiev recycling of those reports.

Cameras Not Lying

The Rashists once again fired at the #ZNPP and published their own pictures. 10 Stupid things a military does during a war: 1. Attack the largest nuclear power plant in Europe...

https://twitter.com/NeilHawker2/status/1566819807940452353

There were five photographs gathered from various sources and replaced with higher resolutions as I went - presented here in my own order of numbered impacts or areas 1-4

Impact 1) the top of Special Building 1 - area and detail views - this Special or specialized building w - (SB1 of 2) - as I follow - handles radioactive waste and houses water treatment plants, equipment repair shops and waste management facilities for the nearby reactors.

The roof impact fits right in with those of Aug. 28, which attack was done with Warmate drones. Here's from a satellite view of Sept. 21 showing two of the 8/29 impacts repaired and one remaining, with the new one near it in red. It seems a bit more limited than the southern 2, which raises the question: what's even weaker than a Warmate? FWIW, it also has a similar angled damage pattern, with a flight path perpendicular, so from the northeast around Illinka, I think, or perhaps from the southwest (the pattern isn't that obvious to me). The vent pipe with a cap knocked off is to the south. The first reports said artillery, but if this is a drone impact, that probably won't reveal its point of origin. 

Impact 2) - "an elevated walkway for personnel between Buildings 2 and 3." I think all of these passages also hold water pipes that connect the reactors to the Special Buildings - the damage here is quite similar to the drone strikes we've seen nearby. It will surely have damaged pipes inside.

However, I'm not clear on the location, angle of view, and/time of day for this scene - the other photos seem to be afternoon - the one timed around 4:30 - so this should be facing NW - the foreground looks just like the elevated walkway's roof as seen in an IAEA photo (see below, where this damage would probably be just off-frame to the right, if it had existed then). 

But what that is at an angle is unclear. It doesn't seem like the crossing passages to the reactors look like that (it would be the one visible at right in the photo below). There's nothing else I'd expect to see in there with a lip and ladder like this. It's a better fit with SB2 roof, seen from atop the crossing passage in the morning, except that would take sunlight from the north you don't usually see in the northern hemisphere.

Either way, the damage is roughly perpendicular to this walkway, for a similar incoming angle roughly parallel with the walkway and the edge of SB1 - from northeast or the southwest. 

A dark linear patch seems to appear on the later satellite view in just one spot - right where it should be if that crossing passage is what we see, looking NW, just off the right edge in the above photo, and right where I had already guessed it must be. So confusion aside, I marked that green in the graphic below. 

Impact 3) "the railway/road in front of Reactor Building 2" 

This fits best with a photo of a mid-sized crater under the walkways, I think at a juncture, facing northwest to reactor block 2. Visually, it's not clear which reactor, except the distant water tank (next photo) has a number starting with 2 (the walkway markings 2/6 & 3/6 not making immediate sense), and Reactor 2 is the only one anything is said to happen in front of. In the near distance is the rail line that passes and connects into each reactor (see "3D" view below).

This crater impact looks different, more powerfully explosive. The crater and ejecta might suggest a trajectory from the west, somewhat alongside this nearest pillar. and somewhat into it. The fragmentation marks on the low pipe nearby supports that it's a fragmentation warhead on such a trajectory (forward fragments spread higher). That could be an exact direction to an artillery o rocket firing spot, or an unreadable final trajectory for a drone or guided missile from anywhere.

Impact/Area 4) Probably connected to the IAEA report's impact 3, local authorities also cited "a tank with distilled water was also damaged in the immediate vicinity of the second power unit." 

A fifth photograph from a different source shows this tank numbered 2TB something, probably 40B62 as seen in the above photo. The tank isn't damaged visibly, but it and/or a downed pipe are leaking water all over. This could connect to impact 3 if I read that wrong, or there might be some other impact not shown or mentioned. It's too far to connect with impacts 1 or 2.

Rogov also mentioned damage to "communication overlap to the right of the special buildings" but I'm not sure what this refers to.

All photographed mapped on satellite image said to be from September 21 (via: https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1572623372856578051) This shows one pre-existing roof impact (northern pink box), incurred Aug. 28, along with 2 other impacts - apparently of UAF-fielded Warmate drones - and the crash of a Warmate that was shot down. The southern impacts are repaired by this time. The 9/4 impact is still there (1, red), looking similar to the previous one nearby. As noted, a dark line appears for impact 2, green. Nothing is visible to support impact 3 or to confirm its location, but that's about where it seems to be.

Here is a big 3D view of the ground-level stuff, using an August drone video of trucks being moved into reactor 1's turbine housing). Rail lines in green, mostly hidden by the elevated passages (white) - at each reactor, bulk stuff can be brought in and out by a rail spur to a gate (gold boxes). Each reactor has 2 big water reservoirs.

Conclusion

This attack, as I've seen it, is not the clearest in revealing just what happened or when or how. But it fits the general pattern of sustained tension that Kiev constantly exploits, to demonize and complicate Russia's control of the plant, Ukraine's systematic shelling of the ZNPP.

In a statement on the 5th, President Zelenskyy would speak of the plant's situation. "the last power transmission line connecting the plant to the energy system of Ukraine was damaged due to another Russian provocative shelling. Again - this is the second time - due to Russian provocation, the Zaporizhzhia plant is one step away from a radiation disaster." 

He was referring to incident the day before (the plant's last dedicated power line was down due to attack, but it was still supplying power through a reserve line - IAEA - and their report lists that separately on the 3rd). He made no specific comment there, or probably anywhere since, on the attacks considered here that, unlike the others, had photographs to go with them. But he would probably take it as fitting the same pattern and making the same case, which Zelenskyy  described so:

"I consider the fact that Russia is doing this right now, right on the eve of the IAEA conclusions, very eloquent. Shelling the territory of the ZNPP means that the terrorist state does not care what the IAEA says, it does not care what the international community decides. ..." 

He also noted "by the way, the conclusions of the mission are to be presented tomorrow. I hope they will be objective." But he feared they might be "pro-Russian propagandists" like Amnesty International and half the world, especially since the IAEA mission was Russia's idea to start with, while Kiev and their plant managers initially "argued any visit would legitimise Russia's presence there." (BBC)

Showing his deep understanding of the cartoon program he was cast as the hero of, Zelenskyy continued:

Russia is interested only in keeping the situation the worst for the longest time possible.

This can be corrected only by strengthening sanctions, only by officially recognizing Russia as a terrorist state - at all levels.

Ukraine has a very clear, transparent and honest position: while we controlled the plant, there was no threat of a radiation disaster. As soon as Russia came, the worst scenario imaginable immediately became possible. This requires an international response - from the UN to every normal state.

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/obstril-teritoriyi-zaes-oznachaye-sho-rosiyi-bajduzhe-sho-sk-77533

There you have it. Russia is evil and wants bad things because they are bad. They cannot just allow the plant to be run smoothly to their or anyone's benefit, because nuclear tension is bad so they desire it. They thrive on creating needless and constant danger, and reaping the outsized waves of negative opinions that elicits. Those "orcs" even take chances like the eve of an IAEA report to "provoke" and remind the world again how mindlessly spiteful Russians are. Because the world forgets, Zelenskyy thinks, he again reminds us how the Russians remind us of their own subhuman status, with actions like this shelling of the ZNPP that poses a real (if overstated) danger to people far and wide, who will have to take notice. 

I mean, wouldn't you want that if you were Russia? To turn as much of the world as possible against you? Keeping in mind that being Russia would entail being mindlessly evil and self-destructive like that?  Many folks are aggressively keeping that nonsense in mind.

But of course, according to the non-cartoon evidence, these attacks are largely or totally carried out by the Ukrainian side. Like the real world tends to do, that makes direct but terrible sense. And part of what makes realities like this so terrible is how they're allowed to thrive and deepen their rot under a lack of accountability.