Maxar and CNN Turn a Blind Eye to August Shelling of ZNPP

Ukraine's Systematic Shelling of ZNPP: Maxar and CNN Turn a Blind Eye to August Shelling

October 2, 2022

Friday, August 19: Russian president Vladimir Putin “stressed that the systematic shelling by the Ukrainian military of the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant creates the danger of a large-scale catastrophe that could lead to radiation contamination of vast territories.” (AFP via Times of Israel) As explained below, this came after at least seven shelling attacks on the Russian-occupied plant, four of them coming in the week August 11-17, 

CNN would feel compelled to reply later the same day, denying the attacks with a 5-author report that found:

"There are no signs of "systemic shelling" at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, new satellite images from Maxar Technologies show. This counters Friday's claims by Russian President Vladimir Putin that the Ukrainian military was conducting repeated military strikes at the plant."

"The latest satellite images from Maxar Technologies were taken Friday morning. CNN has analyzed a number of satellite images of the nuclear power plant complex located in Enerhodar, Ukraine, and it shows little to no change in damage or destruction since July 19, when a Ukrainian military strike on three tents just under 1,000 feet from one of the nuclear reactors."

In a CNN OurFront video report on this story (New satellite images debunk Putin's claim about nuclear plant - YouTube), reporter Sam Kiley came on to explain how the latest views show there was "no significant increase in the damage to Russian locations, Russian-held locations around that nuclear power station" over the last month. 

OutFront host Erin Burnett added funny faces and sounds of exasperation to the absurd claim they were forced to debunk: "Now ... Vladimir Putin has claimed that the Ukrainian military was shelling their own plant, in the middle of their own country." Specifically, they were said to attack Russian forces in their plant and country, but still ... The Ukrainian people rely on energy from the ZNPP, and would suffer badly from any meltdown this shelling might cause, so why would their leaders risk it?

First, the plant is more in the middle of areas Russia has annexed, or is now considering annexing. Likely fallout would affect the plant, ruining it, and would contaminate all south and east of it: Crimea, Melitopol, Mariupol, Donetsk, and well into the Rostov area of southwestern Russia itself, according to some models, like this one from late August. It's terrible, but not at all absurd to think the Ukrainians would risk such a devastating blow to THEIR ENEMIES. 

Here's another one from back in March showing Crimea missed but Mariupol, southern Russia and Kazakhstan getting hit:

Or the fallout might drift more into Europe. It was "feared" that "Russia is preparing the ground to accuse Ukraine of attacking the ZNPP." The accusations could come and be truthful, but either way, US Rep. Adam Kinzinger said, "Any leak will kill people in NATO countries, this is an automatic inclusion of [NATO article] 5," the mutual defense clause. (UP via Yahoo News) This seems quite debatable, but still, tricking NATO at large into direct conflict with their Russian enemies by causing a radiation leak would be in Kiev's military interest, not against it. 

And anyway, it's not "their plant" at the moment, but a Russian-occupied one. That's the whole point. It's Volodomyr Zelenskiy who effectively claims the Russians are shelling their own plant in the middle of their own country. He says they did this after turning it into their own military base and attacking Ukrainian civilians from it. Maddeningly, this makes retaliation "impossible" as many say - unless the Russians do it to themselves, over and over. And Zelenskiy says they do that. 

But then again, 5 days before Putin's comments, on August 14, Zelenskiy already had enough of Russia' ""constant provocations" by firing on the plant" while also firing from it. He promised: "Every Russian soldier who either shoots at the plant, or shoots under the cover of the plant, must understand that he is becoming a special target for our intelligence, for our special services, for our army." (BBC Aug. 14) He didn't specify they would attack anyone WHILE they were at the plant, but that's the widespread reading: The Guardian had Ukraine will target Russian soldiers at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, says Zelenskiy

CNN's Burnett understood that "both sides" were by then "making accusations about military actions around the plant." Ukraine's claims were also of systematic shelling ("constant provocations"). Both sides agreed on the repeat nature of it. But she assured us we could know Putin was lying because - as viewed from satellites in orbit - there were "no signs of systematic shelling - at all." That would make Zelenskiy a liar as well, but that didn't seem to matter at the moment. 

Start: "July 19"

What CNN's team noted was a lack of changes "since July 19." If any images from then were used for comparison, they are not shown in the video or with the report. If they are publicly available to check, I haven't found them yet. 

CNN's people wound up looking at this span because Putin chose to speak one month after "a Ukrainian military strike on three tents just under 1,000 feet from one of the nuclear reactors." That was on July 19, as CNN gives it, although everyone else cites the 20th. As a later CNN report's attached timeline says, on the 19th, "A Ukrainian drone attack targets a Russian tent complex inside the plant’s main security exclusion zone, including a parked BM-21 ‘Grad’ rocket launcher. The attack led to a fire but did not damage the reactors or fuel storage areas." This wasn't "systematic," they want you to know. It was a onetime thing, and nicely limited in scope - not at all what Mr. Putin was claiming. 

This incident is covered somewhat in a previous post here. Adding in this post some photos of the aftermath and drone remnants from Russia's Mission in Vienna on Twitter. Above: aftermath at the encampment.  See also a July 22 UAF video that shows one drone strike by the tents and no fires started (there were more strikes unseen) and a hit to the pavement next to the BM21 among the outer spray pools. 

The area of burned tents is plainly visible in satellite views. Sources at the time bragged of three soldiers killed and 12 injured, Claims and images agree Polish-made "Warmate" kamikaze drones were used. At right, the spray pools where the BM21 was hit, with the drone's propellor and motor next to damaged concrete.

That's one undeniable attack by Ukraine, within the plant's security perimeter, near special building 1 (waste storage), the spray pools, and - at least on Russian MoD maps - it was quite near "radioactive isotope storage." With this, CNN couldn't entirely deny such strikes, just that they were repeated, systematic ones. It's after this they checked and refused to see the signs that the attacks continued. 

August 20 - 29: Zero to A Lot in Ten Days?

CNN shows this detailed satellite view of the ZNPP as it appeared mid-day on August 19 (tuned roughly 45 degrees clockwise from true north):

This was released by Maxar that day (on Twitter), along with a more detailed view of the six reactors.  "New #satellite images collected this morning, August 19, 2022, at 11:33 AM local time, of the #Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant facility in Enerhodar, #Ukraine. No significant signs of recent shelling or damage is seen in or around the nuclear plant." There are certainly no buildings visibly collapsed, or anything of that sort. But as we'll see, that doesn't mean so much. 

After this weak showing, it seems Ukraine was egged on to up the scale of their "Russian shelling." It turned more intense and closer to the reactors starting the next day (the 20th), and it stayed like that over the next 8 days; see the 14 red squares on the map image below. 

Attacks of August 25-28 left marks to the roof of special building 1 visible in a morning view of August 29. A Warmate drone was shot down over the same roof on the 28th, and another on the 29th. Maxar was willing to show this damage, but without mentioning it, and this time without comparing it to any Russian claims. Rotated crop on the damage at right.  On Twitter they would say "New #satelliteimagery from this morning, August 29, 2022, of the #Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar, #Ukraine. A group of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (#IAEA) prepare to visit the facility this week." From this, it's not clear who did it - maybe someone who didn't want inspectors there. That better described Kiev than Moscow.

These images were taken by both sides as proof of systematic shelling by Ukraine or Russia, depending what they already suspected. If it's artillery fire, it came from the north-northeast. Otherwise, it might be done by the Warmate drones being shot down over this same roof. Both possibilities tend to implicate Kiev.

CNN didn't weigh in clearly regarding the new images, but in the meantime, on August 25 they noted an exodus of plant staff over rising dangers. As worker Elena said, “everything explodes there.” CNN heard that "Three Ukrainian plant workers have been killed by the Russian military since March by beating or being shelled." So the shelling now seemed real, deadly, and Russian.  A report from the 27th noted the power supply to the plant was cut off - "the government here says - by Russian shelling." By September 2 CNN was impressed by "just how narrowly Zaporizhzhia NPP has avoided a nuclear disaster." after all that disputed, probably Russian shelling that had snuck into their reports - especially when they already decided there was no such thing for most of that time. 

Attacks They Didn't See

Again, I haven't seen the July comparison images, but to the extent there's no change visible by August 19, that's secondary to what it misses; real and photographed damage from attacks that did occur, on multiple occasions in those 31 days. Attacks on the plant were reported on at least six days in that time, sometimes two in a day. Three of these were in the core area and have visual evidence I included in the graphic below. Yellow boxes show the July 20 attack CNN acknowledges, and the many red squares are damage that didn't yet exist, but that started the day after CNN's denial. Yellow-green, green, and blue mark these intervening attacks on August 6, 11, and 17.

These are placed here on a later and better view of the 29th, but I checked for the few visible signs to make sure they appear on the earlier view. I show some results below, and the full image is included above to check by. Some squares on this map with cross bars are not geolocated, but mapped approximately, as given on this small-sized Russian Defense Ministry map that's correct where I can verify it. Source: https://twitter.com/mission_rf/status/1560570480087678977 

Note the list of 8 incidents at the bottom of the image. These entries are noted below for each event, "as listed." Also linked from this tweet: some details on the incidents of Aug. 11 and 14 included with those entries. 

The damage shown here actually existed, but it's probably too small-scale to appear at even in high-quality satellite views. Still, for good measure, we'll check on each one to see what we can. In each of the 3 cases with adequate visuals to say, the evidence points to artillery fire from the Ukrainian-occupied north bank of the Dnieper River.

August 5: IAEA: "the ZNPP was targeted in shelling resulting in several explosions near the electrical switchboard of a 750 kV external power supply line that caused the shutdown of the electrical power transformer and two backup transformers. One reactor unit was affected. The emergency protection system of the affected unit was triggered, diesel generators were set in operation to ensure the power supply for this unit. This unit remains disconnected from the grid." And "renewed shelling hit the area of the ZNPP’s nitrogen-oxygen station. Firefighters quickly extinguished the fire; however, the station required repairs." 

Zelenskiy: "Today, the occupiers created another extremely risky situation for everyone in Europe – they fired on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, twice in one day." He called for tough sanctions on Russia's entire nuclear industry. (Censor.net)

As listed above, 20 152mm shells were used in a UAF attack. As mapped: "open switchgear" just south of the training center, and just off-frame of my map above. Video shows brushfires at the electric station south of the plant. Visibility from space in the 7-19 view: unclear - I've looked at no clear visuals of impact sites.

August 6, evening: An article at EBC Tech, August 7: "The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi, said that he was “extremely concerned about yesterday’s shelling of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant,"" an act that “highlights the very real danger of a nuclear catastrophe" with global implications.  Grossi called on “all parties” to exercise restraint, and he again insisted on a visit by the IAEA investigative mission to the besieged site." Their September report (PDF) would list this attack twice, on the 6th and the 7th, with slightly different details (e.g. one has an employee injured, and the other specifies a security guard was injured).

Zelenskiy bemoanded "the threat that Russia created by striking at the ZNPP." Kiev-linked plant managers Energoatom would report "the Russian Federation carried out another missile attack ...  Apparently, they aimed specifically at the spent nuclear fuel containers" Russian sources claimed that "at night" on the 6th, Ukrainian forces "launched a strike using a 220-mm Uragan MLRS rocket" towards the ZNPP and that it had "managed to open up and release fragmentation submunitions." As listed: 1 rocket Uragan MLRS in cassette was used in a UAF attack." 

Location: As mapped, next to spent fuel storage. Detailed verification of position here, citing photos and videos mainly released by Russian-linked sources.

Impact analysis: The trench dug by the spent shell runs roughly NW-SE, with soil dispersion mainly to the southeast. That means the rocket came in from the northwest. The tube bent forward and a bit to the side when it stopped, so it can appear like it came from the east and ejected soil almost backwards from how it should, but that makes no sense. It also did not "turn 180 degrees" before impacting, as people love to joke, and I don't think anyone even claimed that. It was a straw-man. 

It remain as debatable as anything, but that's my take.

The embedded rocket tube is some 40 meters south of the gate into the dry spent fuel storage site.  Cluster munitions it released impacted in 7 spots that I've seen and placed - all to the north. Some minor damage within the storage site was also shown, with fragmentation marks visible on the container in the front row, south side (see at right - better view and context needed). The date of that image and connection to this attack is unclear, but the rest are shown as part of the same event. The pattern of impacts is incomplete, but it might suggest the rocket came more from the north than I had estimated.

Visibility from space in the 7-19 view: there is a faintly visible brown patch between the closer 2 of 3 outer trees (red circle), and some of the bomblet impacts might even appear (just to the left of each red dot - magenta inside the site for "maybe"). 

If you were looking for that confirmation, you'd see that and wonder, and then you might ask "why am I bothering? Are those videos and photos all fake?" Of course not. This rocket tube was really there since these views on August 7 up to at least the IAEA team's visit in September.

August 11: IAEA: "On 11 August, a new episode of shelling occurred, damaging one radiation monitoring detector at the plant’s fire station (approximately 500 m from the industrial site)." As listed with the map above: 4 152mm shells and a "Hellfire" rocket were used in another provocation by unaccountable Ukrainian forces. 

An Aug. 16 tweet gives photos and a map and a VK link to details: "During the shelling of ZNPP on August 11 by the units of the 44th artillery brigade of the armed forces of Ukraine from the side of the town of Nikopol, the auxiliary thermal power plant and the equipment of the spray ponds of the nuclear reactors cooling system were partially damaged. Some infrastructure facilities of ZNPP hydroshop were destroyed"

Location: across from reactor 1, where another photo (below) shows better this building lies between a gated road and a lower sort of shed. This is the building's north face, with the photo at right taken in the afternoon, facing west. 

Other impacts are mapped nearby, noted as near "radioactive isotopes storage." And "according to updated information, on August 12 as a result of a direct hit by an artillery shell of the AFU in the security zone perimeter cable tray, the technical security system was disabled and remains inoperable." But I only have full-sized view for the one spot. A small view is included of another scene across from reactor 1, which I've seen in fuller size, but passed by and cannot relocate now. 

Impact analysis: serious damage to brick wall on the western 1/3 of this facade. The middle 1/3 was some lighter paneling that was knocked out much easier. Viewed from the outside, rounded damage on the left vs. total removal on the right suggests it came from the right = west. Seen from inside, the rebar mesh deformed to the east says the same. But a wall section blown out directly to the right (close to the outer wall and not much to the south or right here) seems to make the most sense coming in neither left nor right but perpendicular. A large toppled object is unclear - I don't know where it used to be.

Back outside: the smoke stains from the detonation fireball are mainly just above the impact center, and a bit to the left, but not to the right. All this says the shell was fired from the north or perpendicular to this wall, and probably a bit from the west of that. Or, as it turns out with the plant's overall 21-degree rotation, it most likely from about due north (shown at right), or even a bit NNE. That comes from the Marganets area.

Visibility from space in the 7-19 view: impacted north wall in shadow, not at all evident here, or probably in any view - rubble on ground may be faintly visible or cleaned up in the 7-19 view. Invisible, yet real.

August 14, as listed: 10 155mm shells of M777 howitzer (USA) and 2 guided munitions were used in a UAF attack - In the evening of August 14, as a result of another shelling by the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU), an open switchgear of 750 kV was damaged. There are malfunctions in the central control panel for the distribution of electricity at ZNPP. The extent and character of damage is being specified." Visibility from space: unclear (no images or clear location).

August 15, as listed: 30 152 mm shells were used in a UAF attack. No further details. Visibility from space: also unclear.

August 17, as listed: 1 Polish drone and 11 152 mm shells were used in a UAF attack. RU mission in Vienna shared photos on the 18th, apparently from this attack: "Ukrainian armed formations continue to shell Zaporozhskaya nuclear power plant, using Western-made shells. US Manufacturer's data is visible on the photo - @EaglePicher That is how Kiev regime and its Western supervisors threaten nuclear security of the largest NPP in Europe" There are three photos of an intact shell, and one of some ill-defined damage in a vague spot.

Location: view faces south to training center - a mangled fence, perhaps on an earthen mound, disrupted, with the main crater-impact off frame. Past the fence is an empty span, then a higher concrete wall and fence - probably how the perimeter fences look at the red dot on the Russian MoD map, 50m from radioactive isotope storage. 

Visibility from space in the 7-19 view: disruption of fence-ridge almost at the red dot is plainly visible, along with and a crater on the other side of the far fence, as shown at right. The building to the left also may show some burning at the north end.

Impact analysis: the crater's soil dispersion is unclear here, but seems more to the southeast in the 8/29 view. The fence we see is blown outward and maybe a bit to the right, which is to the east or southeast. In both senses, fire from the northwest is suggested - yet again - but not all that clearly.

That makes four attacks in a single week. Also on August 17, Russian-linked sources address the reported detention of some plant employees. Local administration head Vladimir Rogov: "Details of the detention of employees of the Zaporozhye NPP - artillery spotters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Today in Energodar, law enforcement officers detained two Ukrainian artillery spotters. They helped to strike at the territory of the nuclear power plant and the city. One of the detainees, Oleg Morochkovsky, worked as a security guard at a 750 kV open switchgear (ORU-750). The second is engineer Alexei Danilov."

Later Attacks You Can Just Barely See

One of the more dramatic attacks came just too late for CNN to see, and just after the attackers were egged on by their denials. IAEA report: "On 20 and 21 August, shelling damaged ZNPP infrastructure, including transitional galleries used by ZNPP staff to access the power units (overpass), as well as laboratory and chemical facilities." Russia's Mission in Vienna: "Another shelling took place on August 20. One artillery shell exploded in the vicinity of Special building No.1 and three shells near Laboratory and household building and Special building No.2" Photographs and an overview map included.

Visibility from space: faintly visible as dirt patches in the grass appear for the two with big photos, and perhaps some dark pixels for the other two spots - I think - in Maxar's 8/29 view (inexact geolocation) - graphic comparing 8/19 view (white) for each spot, to show how little even these sizeable changes come through from Earth orbit, even in high-quality images like this.  

The photos aren't terribly clear, but seem to show soil dispersion towards the camera and a bit to the left, meaning fire from the west-northwest, probably closer to Nikopol than usual.

Some damage at the pant is plainly visible from the space - the roof tears on Special Building 1, for example. And there is a dark, angled smudge right next to reactor block 6, consistent with fire from near Marganets to the NNW, that appears between August 19 and 29, and is inspected by the IAEA as a relevant impact. It's near 2 other shell impacts reported and shown on the 27th, said to be fired from near Marganets and with a consistent suggested trajectories. One hit the special building, and the other damaged water pipes of the cooling system (see here and here). 

But these other impacts lie in the shadows and don't clearly appear from space. Over and over, very significant artillery impacts fail to come through at all. That should be no surprise. 

In choosing to view it this way, from OUTER SPACE, Maxar and CNN opted to effectively squint the evidence away. The only valid point they could raise is none of these alleged Ukrainian attacks was massive enough to be plainly visible from space (except for the one on the 17th, but they didn't really look). Instead, they reported their voluntary vision impairment like it meant something - "little to nothing" was actually happening on the ground, among the stored radioactive materials, pipes and devices necessary to avoiding nuclear catastrophe. The flippancy of this report on such a serious subject is essentially criminal.

Now, is it "Systematic"? 

CNN suggested the shelling at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was exaggerated or perhaps made-up by the Russians. But where you can actually see it, it seems real. Weapons were fired distressingly close to sensitive areas, before and since, several times destabilizing the situation so corrective measures were needed. Furthermore, we can see these reckless attacks are launched from the north, where Ukrainian forces are, and/or are done with Western munitions and Polish drones Ukraine uses. 

And in the end, as President Zelenskiy says, this "constant provocation" ... "only mobilises even more global efforts to confront terror," of course meaning Russia. We saw his response to the August 5 shelling (or we see a bit of it at right), urging some firm response to Russia's shelling. The next day, Russia was caught again "striking at the ZNPP." Ukraine's local head of Military Administration, Alexander Starukh, declared “the situation requires a real response, not an expression of concern” like the IAEA had issued. (EBC Tech)

Kiev had apparently just launched cluster bombs from the northwest, with the bomblets landing around the spent fuel storage site, perhaps damaging some containers, and reportedly injuring a security guard. To that illogical "Russian shelling" of the Russian-occupied plant, the only response Kiev's supermacists wanted to see was something "real." Direct, international military action against Russia captures the spirit best, but Zelenskiy was pedaling new and "tough" sanctions to cripple Russia's nuclear industry, adding to the measures meant to bring its people finally to their knees.

I think I can make out a system at work behind this. Enabled by foreign governments and others, including in Western intelligence and the mainstream media, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue at the ZNPP their system of shelling and spinning - as they've done for years in the Donbas - so "the Russians" are always "shelling themselves." While each attack on the plant carries little immediate risk, tensions are kept high, and Russia's occupation is kept in the news, transformed from a basic fact into a constant screaming danger to the whole world, that can only end when the Russians leave the plant. 

Western leaders agree and insist Russia's presence is the "root cause" of shelling at the plant, if not the direct cause. They know it's Ukraine that keeps launching in shells, rockets, and explosive drones making it so “everything explodes there,” as worker Elena put it. They know that this will not stop until Kiev has achieved its goal, and the West wants to help reach that goal. So it continues. And if this ceaseless Ukrainian shelling causes a catastrophic meltdown along the way, well... there will be radioactive fallout for the Russian people, and then further punishments to follow.