One Month of "Russians Shelling Themselves" in Donetsk

October 10, 2022

(rough, incomplete) last edits 10/18

In my previous post on the September 19 Donetsk shelling attack and related tweets, I noted some other attack scenes that came attached to some reports. A market area and 2 homes probably do relate to that day. But a burning truck was actually 2 days earlier. Other scenes on different days I saw along the way to figuring that out were intriguing. There were more than the six seven incidents I'll cover here, spanning almost exactly one month from August 23 to September 22. 

Local authorities and Russian sources generally report these as UAF fire from the northwest, where Ukrainian forces have for years encircled and allegedly terrorized the city. that, while pro-Kiev sources cast doubt or overtly blame Donetsk Peoples' Republic forces or their Russian allies for the shelling, intentionally, as a "provocation" just to make Ukraine look bad.

Applying quick but sound ballistic analysis to available images, I find that - with one unexpected exception - the shells in these attacks that killed dozens of locals and wounded many more appear to have originated from the northwest, at a few different angles. It's still physically possible DPR or Russian forces could have carried out these attacks from around the NW limits of Donetsk. But that was always a stupid victim-blaming conspiracy theory that seems to cover for ongoing, somewhat genocidal state-sponsored terrorism.

August 23, Clashing Claims:

https://lenta.ru/news/2022/08/23/damage/

"Ukrainian troops shelled the building of the administration of the head of the DPR in the center of Donetsk. "A fire broke out in the building. Broken bricks, parts of cladding and metal structures are scattered everywhere in the district, "eyewitnesses said. The head of the DPR Denis Pushilin was not injured."

Including other shelling this day, "the number of civilians affected by the shelling increased to eight people. The mayor of the city of Donetsk, Alexei Kulemzin, said that two people were killed and six people were injured from the next blow of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they are provided with the necessary medical care."

https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/526415-pryamoe-popadanie-v-donecke-nanesli-udar-po-administracii-pushilina-foto-video

The Russian authorities could organize strikes on the occupation administration of the head of the "DPR" Denis Pushilin on August 23 in Donetsk. Their goal is to justify the attacks on Ukrainian government buildings on Independence Day. This is written by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Some conspiracy theorists there. Did they really say that?

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23

By Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

Russian officials may have conducted a false flag event in Donetsk City on August 23 to justify attacks against Ukrainian government buildings on August 24, Ukrainian Independence Day. Social media networks in Donetsk City reported that a strike caused damage to the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) administrative building, where DNR Head Denis Pushilin works.[11] Pushilin was reportedly absent at the time of the strike. Russian media framed the attack as a direct Ukrainian strike on a DNR government building, potentially to set information conditions for retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian government buildings on Ukrainian Independence Day.[12] 

August 23, Cameras Not Lying:

https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/526415-pryamoe-popadanie-v-donecke-nanesli-udar-po-administracii-pushilina-foto-video

Location: south part of Voroshylovs'kyi district, on Puskina blvd. - 47.9972727,37.8021528 - 2011 street view below - this is the west-facing facade, hit in 2 spots- I think from the left/north. Either way, it must be partly from the west. 

Someone else could say a lot more about this, especially with more than the one image. I suppose a Russian false-flag attack is physically possible ... they run areas to the northwest just past Donetsk city limits, around 8-12 well-inhabited kilometers from this building. They would want to make it look like the Ukrainian "Nazis" did it right? If so, they succeeded, because ... it looks like the Ukrainians "Nazis" did it. In better detail, the following cases tend to look just the same.

September 2: Clashing Claims

https://www.mk-donbass.ru/incident/2022/09/02/centr-donecka-popal-pod-obstrel-vfu-est-zhertvy.html

As the mayor of Donetsk said in his official telegram channel, the AFU again struck at the center of Donetsk. Under fire was the Voroshilov district of the city.

According to eyewitnesses, the shells exploded near the drama theater. Another shell hit the roof of a new building on Pushkin Boulevard.

https://www.donetsk.kp.ru/online/news/4903749/

"As of 23:30, the total number of civilian casualties from attacks by armed formations of Ukraine for September 2, 2022 is 21 people, including 1 child," the observers said. 

It is specified that six civilians, including a child, were killed, another 15 were injured. "Unfortunately, the injured child born in 2008 died on the way to the hospital," the mayor's office informed. It is noted that the teenager was injured in the shelling of the supermarket "Obzhora" in the Kalinin district of Donetsk.

It is also reported that as a result of the shelling of the center of the capital of the Republic, the glazing of the building of the Donetsk State Academic Music and Drama Theater named after M.M. Brovun, as well as the building of the Apparatus of the DPR People's Council, was damaged.

- In the underground passage, trade pavilions, the front door, the guard's room, the shield room were damaged. The roof of an apartment building was damaged due to a direct hit, - the head of the capital administration Alexei Kulemzin said in his telegram channel.

September 2: Photos Not Lying

Parking lot of Donetsk National Academic Ukrainian Music and Drama Theater next to Pushkin monument (as located for 9/17, see below). Also in the central Voroshylovs'kyi district

Pretty clearly from the northwest. See site mapping below to save pic space. Facing north, just west of the theater's west face, an impact near the corner spread - the blast wave bent the sign forward, as debris was sent ahead and to the left and right. 

September 9: Clashing Claims

IN DONETSK, A BUS STOP NEAR THE PARK WAS SHELLED: THERE ARE DEAD AND WOUNDED

On the afternoon of September 9, the center of occupied Donetsk came under fire. The second wave occurred in the area of the intersection of Universitetskaya Street and Prospekt Mira. Nearby is the Park of Forged Figures. According to preliminary data, as a result of the shelling, 2 people were killed, 5 were injured. Data on victims and wounded are being clarified.

Earlier it was reported that the Park of Forged Figures in the city center came under fire, as a result of which a woman was injured.

The occupied Donetsk was shelled for the second time in a day. There are dead - September 09, 2022 :: News of Donbass (novosti.dn.ua)

the rest forthcoming ... to do: locate more reports, place the scene, assess the damage.

park and streets are just as given and the scene here is at 48.0168445,37.7988095 - northern Voroshylovs'kyi district. Google and Yandex street views are dated, showing different structures on the island, but the same apartment building across the way, and other surroundings that match video of the scene.

Crater: on the island's east side, with a loose splash of heavy marks just this side of powdered concrete and debris to the west and south. 

Unusually, it looks like this shot was fired from the east to northeast - behind DPR lines from the direction Maakiivka, by the line I drew here. It's just approximate, but still ... whatever happened here, it appears to me it's hard to blame Ukrainian forces for it. It isn't impossible to fire from behind enemy lines, just rather tricky and quite rare.

video: https://twitter.com/ara_n_ura/status/1568267686546735107 - dead victim on the ground just ahead of impact - another shell explodes behind the camera, just to the east - smoke rises from near the park's edge. 

September 17: Clashing Claims

https://www.mk-donbass.ru/incident/2022/09/17/v-dnr-pokazali-posledstviya-obstrela-centra-donecka-foto.html

Today, the AFU inflicted a massive artillery strike on the center of Donetsk. Pushkin Boulevard, the central Lenin Square and the adjacent section of Artema Street came under enemy fire. ... The shelling damaged the roof of the Voroshilov administration, the pedestal of the monument to Pushkin, glazed musical dramas and a number of other buildings.

...According to the JCCC of the VFU, they fired from guns of 155 mm caliber. Four people ["civilians"] were killed, three more were injured of varying severity. Two of the dead were burned in a GAZelle that was moving along Artema Street during the shelling. Another woman died near the drama theater.

https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/529742-obstrel-donecka-rossmi-pishut-o-priletah-po-zdaniyu-mchs-i-stancii-skoroy-pomoshchi

Powerful explosions were heard in the Voroshilov district. Propagandists have already determined that 155 mm ammunition was fired at the city. ... During the shelling of the temporarily occupied Donetsk, the buildings of the "Ministry of Emergency Situations", ambulance stations and official vehicles were damaged. This was reported by the Russian agency "RIA Novosti".

https://www.ostro.org/general/society/news/647293/

"As a result of the provocation of the "DPR" militants in the occupied Donetsk, four people were killed. ... As always, the puppet authorities of the "DPR" stated that the shelling of Donetsk was carried out by units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."

"In the Voroshilov district, fragments from the shells of the Caesar howitzer of French production were found - approx. DAN). It is already known about four dead," they said.

However, photos published in the separatist media of the places of arrival of ammunition refute the version of the shelling of Donetsk by large-caliber howitzers of NATO production. The pictures show minor destruction of sidewalks, the pedestal of the monument to Pushkin and broken window panes. By their nature, the places of arrival correspond to the shelling from mortars, the insufficient range of destruction of which excludes the use of this type of weapon by the defenders of Ukraine.

September 17, Cameras Not Lying: I found the spot from a few images before I checked what was said - Artema Street, Lenin square, central Voroshylovs'kyi district. 2 impacts. One with the heavily damaged and burning ("GAZelle") truck is widely seen from several angles. 

Location: in the street alongside Lenin Square - 48.0014395,37.804561. To the south: DPR People's Council building, damaged 9/2. 

Splash Pattern: A mess of chipped pavement with an ill-defined but generally coherent forward edge line angling less than 45 degrees relative to the white line ... frags would angle forward, up, and into this truck, in its original position a couple meters back. Other photos show gravelly debris across the street for a wide span and into the square, somehowhat behind/south of the truck.

North impact - seems almost due west across from the square's north and the green-marked building, and a bit north of all 5 flags.   splash pattern: not fully clear, but this soldier sits near the center and we can see the forward right edge of the chipped asphalt.

Music and drama theater, monument to (Russian poet) A.S. Pushkin. Impact to curb 4 or 5m NW from the bust of Pushkin gracing the square. Curb was blown away there, with fragments out the side craping various lines across the pavement to the right, as soil and a shrub absorbed the forward force of the blast, covering the sidewalk in a pattern that's been swept away by this view,

The line of marks on the brick runs - on a line similar to that of shadows here - back to the base of the actual bust of Pushkin, where the circular base is chipped, along with the square base above that, and the bottom of the pillar - in a line angling up to the southeast. Included with all 3 spots mapped with patterns and apparent shell trajectories traced on. 9/2 attack also noted. The memorial one is especially approximate here - I tried using ctrl to make a default 45-degree line, but it's not quite that. 

More exactly on the monument: at this scene, measuring from missing curb nearly to the NE corner of the bust's square base gives a line exactly to 211degrees SW. The flight path will be roughly perpendicular to this, so from around 300 degrees NW. My visual estimate for the road impacts as above seemed good, and was extremely similar to this. I'm calling all 3 fired from about 300 degrees NW. 

Note: "minor destruction of sidewalks, the pedestal of the monument to Pushkin and broken window panes" were mentioned as the only damage from these shells - but this was all from the one shell with little nearby to mark its presence except solid ground and the bottom of the pedestal. Broken windows distance: spanning ~42-50m away from the impact point. Is that really too weak for 155mm shell?

September 18 (a 7th incident, added 10/17) Video: Direct hit to the apartment on the street University, 53a. https://t.me/itsdonetsk/30974 - https://vk.com/wall-75188516_1005220 - no massive damage, but an impact near the corner, windows out all over this side of the building. 

Somewhere there was a suggestion this was done by Ukrainian forces to the northwest. V. Zolkin on Telegram had to expose that lie because "stupid countrymen have been pissing me off for the ninth year!" He cites the video, gives the spot, and says this is the east face (facing to Artema street to the east) and so the building was hit from NE, Kalinins'kyi district or Makiivka. As he points out in caps lock, there is no known AFU presence there. 

I'd say it was hit from the southeast if this were the east side. But in his anger, perhaps, he got it backwards. The spot on Google Earth is not a certain match, but it was given and seems consistent. It could be the east or west face we see - maybe west, as it's more heavily treed. Most details aren't all that clear, but one is: there is no low structure on the south end protruding a bit to the east. But there is its opposite - a low structure on the north end protruding a bit to the west.  Hit on the west side, from north (venturing no specific angle), and probably from AFU areas there, Volkin's un-abatable anger aside. 

September 19, September 22: mostly forthcoming...

https://meduza.io/feature/2022/09/20/voyna-dvesti-vosmoy-den-fotografii

"On September 19, the authorities of the self-proclaimed LPR and DPR proposed to immediately hold referendums on joining Russia. ... The mayor of Donetsk, Alexei Kulemzin, reported the death of 13 people as a result of shelling of the city by the Ukrainian military." 

В Донецке во время артобстрела погибло много людей, боевики обвиняют ВСУ (фото, видео) (focus.ua)

In the Kuibyshev district of Donetsk on the afternoon of August 19, "arrivals" from artillery shelling were recorded. The "mayor" of the city, Alexei Kulemzin, appointed by the occupiers, accused the Armed Forces of Ukraine of shelling.

Referring to the data of the joint center for control and coordination of ceasefire and stabilization of the demarcation line of the parties, Kulemzin said. that the shelling of Donetsk was conducted from the territory of the village of Netaylovo, Yasynuvata district, Donetsk region.

"At 12:15 and 12:23, a total of 9 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired towards the Kuibyshev district," Kulemzin said.

According to him, the blow fell on the square of Baku Commissars, as a result, 13 people were killed, the number of wounded is being established.

Local publications write that the shells landed, including in the store, killing civilians.

https://tsn.ua/ru/ato/doneck-popal-pod-moschnyy-obstrel-okkupanty-zayavlyayut-o-gibeli-13-chelovek-2161018.html

9/19 The head of the Odessa OVA, Sergei Bratchuk, also reported on the shelling in the Telegram channel, but did not indicate the number of dead and wounded.

"The occupiers again shelled the temporarily occupied Donetsk. The day before, according to tradition, the Russians create the so-called information alibi, and then commit a new provocation against Ukraine," he said.

September 19, Cameras Not Lying: One Ukraine supporter Ryan McBeth disagreed, claiming to have forensic proof from the visual record discounting Kiev's claims and deciding DPR forces launched this attack from the south-southwest and had the round fall short - presumably in error.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoyNGHkjeyM

In my previous post, I showed how McBeth's analysis is incorrect and apparently uninformed. My own was partly incorrect to start, but informed enough to get on track eventually. It's a rambling post with some middle that can be skipped. A variety of clues (splash pattern on the asphalt to the northwest, fragment marks on the walls angling up to the south, people dead with legs shredded off just north of the impact, more intact bodies to the sides and south)  add up to say the shell responsible came from some combination of the north and the west that remains to be settled. (update 10/16: pretty well settled, as it happens, pretty much as shown below from an earlier try - but see updated post for details).

Latest trajectory estimate dropped onto a map of alleged attack origin Netaylovo, an Yandex Maps finds it 20 km NW - points right to it! Should be set a few pixels lower, point more to the town's middle. A reasonable range will include almost exactly what they shaded red here.

In that post and related tweets, I mentioned multiple attacks that day - maybe just the Baku Commissars Square area - the bust stop by the JAM shop and an open-air market area probably to the northwest of it (or off to the south...) - plus the 2 unplaced homes - the one with a burning truck was actually 2 days earlier, now covered above. 13-16 reported dead total, maybe all in the one area. - review briefly - more detail later - 

September 22, Clashing Claims:

https://dan-news.info/foto/foto-obstrel-krytogo-rynka-v-centre-donecka-ukrainskimi-boevikami/

Armed formations of Ukraine today from artillery guns opened fire on the center of Donetsk. A powerful blow was dealt to the Central (Covered) Market and the nearby territory.

It was reported that the militants of Kiev fired from the occupied Orlovka shells of 155 mm caliber. hits were near the building of the Covered Market, next to the flower pavilions and in the bus - the city minibus No. 38. According to the latest data, as a result of the shelling, six people were killed, including a teenager, six more were injured. Rescuers and medics quickly arrived at the scene.

Representatives of the JCCC and the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation also arrived to witness the fact of a war crime. Fragments of shells will be sent for examination.

September 22, Cameras Not Lying: location: 48.0108833,37.808115 - driving south on Chelyuskintsiv St. in Voroshylovs'kyi district - hit from the west + anything?

A few marks visible on the front above the blown-out windshield, at least one on the back and lower - all seemingly exit points of frags passing through the bus.  quite a few punch-ins visible with a crumpling blast wave and fireball along the side - pattern not fully clear - several in the middle of the bus punched out the other side, around the middle of the bus. One panel on the west side was peeled outward in a separate development. All else says force in from the west, out in all other directions - as for height, 3 highest marks visible on the west side are all in the front 2/3 of the bus, and several punch-outs are seen above the windshield - as forward fragments radiate the highest, this suggests maybe it was angled towards the front = from north of west or northwest. Orlovka was named. It's 21km to the NNW. This sketch uses the compass angle from that town to explain the damage seen. Similar angles would work just as well, but this does fit the picture pretty well.

dead man down ahead of oil slick (or did the driver tumble out there?). amid a field of debris - glass, window framing and panels - extending south and east from an impact point off-frame to the left. 

A gold-colored car at far left there and a black car just to its north suffered some low frag hits (likely as parked, but maybe when driving) - pieces of shell casing found here - some pavement marks visible, but not enough to see a pattern. Impact is about here, some meters north of where the bus wound up.

Another impact in the central market area - one crater seen just NW of Central Market's dome - fatalities and injuries seen a bit north of there. To hit so close to this wall, it had to come from the north and/or west, though the direction isn't very clear - the earth absorbed most of the force. Just some windows broken, light damage, dirt spray, and debris spread into the building and to the south = from the northwest, and maybe a bit more from the north. Just like the angle from which the bus was hit.

video: shell hits where? https://twitter.com/KDima777/status/1572932282658476032

another https://twitter.com/TheHumanFund5/status/1572913598376169473

All mapped with directions and lines of control: forthcoming. For now all mapped, including the 9/18 apartment building impact just added.

Review of what these "Russian provocations" and "short rounds" did. forthcoming...

Failed crater analyst and (accidental?) apologist for UAF terrorism Ryan McBeth: "I think we can effectively rule out Ukraine randomly shelling cities" (here) But was it really random, or done by a template with some terrible logic? In the cases just examined, shells hit: An occupied public transit bus - a crowded bus stop - another bus stop (but maybe on accident) - a couple of public markets - centers of government and administration and emergency services - sites of Russian-Soviet culture and history - and all of it in a place inhabited mainly by ethnic Russians who consciously reject the new Ukraine. 

 

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/8471

Donetsk Mayor Alexei Kulemzin on the 19th, after shelling that would claim 13 or even 16+ lives:

"Do not go outside unless absolutely necessary! Take care of yourself and your loved ones!" The affected route was suspended for safety. 

ВСУ чаще всего бьет по социальным объектам, рассказал мэр Донецка - РИА Новости, 03.10.2022 (ria.ru)

Mayor of Donetsk Alexey Kulemzin said that the Ukrainian side most often strikes at social facilities. "There is a lot of destruction, I repeat, the housing stock, infrastructure facilities, schools, kindergartens, hospitals, temples, social facilities are being destroyed purposefully," he said on the air of Russia 24.

And so life is made to be, in what they call "temporarily occupied Donetsk" until they accept their "liberation" by NATO's favored forces. And so it has been, with varying intensity, for over 8 years now.

To link: Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Who is Really Flattening Mariupol? (libyancivilwar.blogspot.com) - recalling the Jan. 2015 attack on markets and all of Vostochniy district, Mariupol - lines of fire pointed mainly to DPR areas, but methods and motive are 150% clear in reminding us enemy lines CAN be breached, for brief moments anyway, when there's a good reason like this. Locals terrorized, told it was the DPR they would mostly welcome - est. 70% rejected this, blamed UAF - from the DNR end, friendly, allied & blood relatedma locals held hostage were shelled, maimed, killed when they drew too near to liberating them. They pulled back under pressure after they were blamed for the massacre of dozens, then Misnk talks, etc. and they didn't get that close to taking Mariupol until this year, with Russia's much-maligned help. 

Compared to Donetsk shelling discussed here ... lines of fire aren't tricky at all - they say just what motive does. ...