< Ukraine's Systematic Shelling of the ZNPP (masterlist - f/c)
October 14, 2022 (last edits 10/16)
The Russians Know It
Amid their invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces famously took over security at the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) - the largest in Europe - in early March. They took it by force, as it had to be, when Ukrainian forces based there fired of the first tanks sent in, sparking a prolonged firefight at the plant. They damaged the plant but won the clash, and since then, they have "militarized" the plant to a disputed degree, basing soldiers, supply trucks, and lightly armed APCs there, along with one apparent Grad rocket launcher that's seen, and allegedly much more.
Russian forces at the plant have also kept tabs on security incidents like artillery shelling attacks directed at their positions or anywhere else at the plant. Since mid-July, they've complained of "systematic" UAF shelling and drone attacks at the plant. For example ... Statement by ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov, to the IAEA Board of Governors, 15 September 2022:
According to the Ministry of Defense of Russia, since July 18, 2022, Ukrainian armed formations have shelled the territory of the ZNPP and its infrastructure more than 30 times, firing more than 120 artillery shells and using at least 16 kamikaze drones.
The satellite city of ZNPP Enerhodar, where the station's employees and their families live, was shelled more than 70 times during the same period (10 times from drones and more than 60 times from barrel artillery and multiple launch rocket systems). As a result of these attacks, there are casualties and injuries among the employees of the nuclear power plant and residents of the city.
We believe that now no one can doubt that missile and artillery strikes on the station and attacks with the help of combat drones are carried out by the Ukrainian armed forces.
The content of this post will bear out that seemingly bold claim. Even those who strenuously deny the facts tacitly acknowledge their reality in various ways. Everybody Knows it's unaccountable Ukraine that has been shelling the Zaporizhya NPP. Some call it out and some hush it up and even assist it, but everyone who matters realizes it's a campaign of nuclear blackmail; Kyiv creates a threat they control, that will persist until their demands are met. That would mean a Russian surrender of the plant to Ukrainian militarization, or to some neutral status Kyiv could unaccountably subvert.
However legitimate one thinks those demands are, the tactics used, that so many employ, assist, or enable through silence ... well, it's a damn shame. I'm at a loss for words on the significance of it, but here it is.
It's the Russians, not the Ukrainians or their enablers, keeping public tabs on this shelling. Below: a map made by the Russian Ministry of Defense showing attacks up to August 27, apparently being shown during the September visit of a high-level delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). I've been able to geolocate and confirm many of these impacts, enough to note the 3 in front of reactor 6 were the most recent, and just placed arbitrarily in front of the reactor. Actual locations and more at this post.
Over and over, the Russians say the rockets and artillery shells come in from the north, northwest, and northeast, across the Dnipro river, where Ukrainian forces operate - Nikopol, Marganets, etc.. Kiev denies it, even as they claim the north bank gets shelled the other way all the time, with shells flying out of the pant. One likely case of that has appeared on video (my analysis), but the real scale of it is unclear. Yet Ukraine's forces never retaliate, we're to understand. Instead, the Russians retaliate against themselves. If so, and they're keeping tabs properly, they did it more than 30 times in just over a month, besides hammering the surrounding town even harder.
The Locals Know It
From the same statement by Ulyanov:
"During the visit of the IAEA mission to the ZNPP, the residents of Energodar conveyed a collective appeal to the IAEA Director General in this regard. In particular, it says: "In the area of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe - Zaporizhya - there is a critical situation. The Armed Forces of Ukraine conduct regular shelling of the territory of the station. Mr. Grossi, leaders of the IAEA member countries, We, the residents of the Zaporizhzhia region, appeal to you to stop the provocations of Ukraine aimed at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. We ask you to strongly condemn the actions of the Ukrainian leadership to escalate the situation around the Zaporizhya nuclear power plant and warn of responsibility to the world community in the event of continued shelling of the station."
"This appeal was signed by 20,647 residents of the region. Unfortunately, there was no room in the CEO's Report for even a mere mention of this collective appeal, which is crucial to understanding what is happening."
There was no mention of this letter in the IAEA's report, and they have not condemned Ukraine's actions by name, in a way that can allow accountability or consequences. But to be fair, they haven't done as the Ukrainians demand and blame the Russians for shelling their own "militarized" nuclear plant. That's what makes them "cowardly."
Energoatom Management Knows It
This claim, true or otherwise, helped justify a Ukrainian kamikaze drone attack on Russian forces at the plant a few days later. When Ukraine first attacked on July 18, or July 20 by most accounts (it's confused), they were open about it, claiming to have killed 3 Russian soldiers, as they released a video of the strike with rousing music on the 22nd. It was the first of many attacks on the territory of the ZNPP, and oddly, the only one Ukraine owned up to. It sure set something in motion, but just what remains disputed.
There was no way to blame the Russians for that first attack. So the good patriots at Energoatom blamed no one. They said nothing about the reckless attack within the plant. They were worried about attacks from there, where the direct nuclear danger is from return fire that attacks might provoke. But they don't seem to care about the actual, direct danger when it appears, because of whose war and propaganda effort they're involved with. At least, I haven't seen any mention, and one news report notes "the company also did not comment on the drone attack by Ukrainian forces."
Of course, Kotin and Energoatom claim that Russia was behind all the other attacks since that, all of which Ukraine denies (with no exceptions I've seen yet). They will have no forensic or even logical reason to think the Russians are shelling themselves at the plant. They will have a script issued by Kyiv telling them to say that, regardless of what they know to be true.
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After the IAEA visit, Kotin would say "all of the Rosatom representatives lied to the mission... This will not benefit the Russian fascists, but the opposite." (Yahoo News) Says someone who knows he's got his hand on a nuclear blackmail lever.
A couple weeks later, at the South Ukraine NPP they also run, Energoatom released a 15-second video of a Russian missile hitting 300m from the plant grounds on September 19, but also showing the exhaust trails of 2 missiles fired from about 50m outside the grounds moments before, Of course, they failed to mention this act of provocation that endangered the plant. (Ukrainian Militarization: the "Root Cause" of Attacks on the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant?)
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Energoatom are silent about Ukrainian attacks on nuclear plants, or worse yet they blame Russia for the attacks. They ignore provocations launched from nuclear plants Ukraine has militarized, as they decry any retaliation and knowingly pass it off as unprovoked and criminal. This kind of propaganda might be good for Ukraine's war effort, but it does nothing to discourage attacks. In fact, it encourages attacks to keep making a politically useful case on the world stage. In effect, Energoatom mangement cover for the militarization of Ukraine's nuclear plants and Kyiv's nuclear blackmail over the one it can't militarize. Just as they fire from some populated areas and remotely terrorize others, it's another cheat to give the Ukrainian exceptionalists another edge on the Russians.
From a nuclear safety standpoint, it's obviously a terrible policy and practice. In a sane world, Energoatom deserves to lose their role as plant managers, at the ZNPP and across the board. General director Igor Murashov was removed at the start of October, apparently by Russian decree (see below). Within days, Energoatom itself was removed in the same way.
Reuters, October 5: "The Zaporizhya nuclear plant is now on the territory of the Russian Federation and, accordingly, should be operated under the supervision of our relevant agencies," RIA news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin as saying. Rosatom will be brought in to replace Enegoatom. But its president Petro Kotin replied it was he who was done cooperating with the Russians; "All further decisions regarding the operation of the station will be made directly at the central office of Energoatom ... We will continue to work under Ukrainian law, within the Ukrainian energy system, within Energoatom," Kotin said. We'll see how well they "manage" the plant from that far away.
This only happened after Russia annexed the territory, following on a disputed vote of the locals. But in my opinion, the lying war pigs had already earned a stern firing separately from that.
Plant Workers Probably Know It ...
... but they work for Energoatom that works for the perpetrators, and they apparently they know to follow the company line or to keep silent. One engineer "managed to communicate" anonymously with the BBC, reiterating a version of the management line published August 13. He worried that destruction of power lines linking the facility to the Ukrainian energy system would lead to blackouts and a nuclear disaster like at Fukushima, after the Russians "deliberately put us in a 'blackout'' to "help" us later." with "a plan to connect the ZNPP to the Russian energy system ... they tell us: "If "neo-Nazis from the Armed Forces break your last line, we are ready to help you" ... "Right now, they are very close. Maybe tomorrow, maybe the day after tomorrow they will break the last line."
How does he know it's the Russians attacking the plant and its power lines, and not their "Neo-Nazi" boogeymen? Well, he'd say the "Nazis" don't exist, but also ... Russia's atomic utility Rosatom got their hands on plant maps, he says, "and then the shelling started. They know where to shoot to make it 'hurt', but 'not lethally'. They are like prison guards or FSB officers, they hit you in such a way that you don't get bruised, but you remember it forever," said the engineer, who seems to identify with the plant to an unusual and sort of poetic degree.
He realizes the fire is coming in largely from the northwest and thus appears to be Ukrainian, but ... it's all faked in a Russian false-flag, he claims, "The station has a site where heavy metal structures such as fresh steam generators are stored. So now there are Russian artillery installations on it, which are shelling ZNPP, simulating "arrivals" from Nikopol," a Ukrainian-held city across the river to the northwest.
The engineer spoke on or before August 13, maybe two days after Energoatom failed to confirm a best example of fake NW fire by declaring the Aug. 6 rocket came in the opposite way. And consider this early, there had only been about three attacks total (Aug. 5, 6, 11)
But he was adamant and "I personally saw the shelling from this site, saw the exit from there and where it flew. From the moment of "exit" to the moment of "arrival" no more than three seconds passed. Each of the ZNPP employees saw and heard it. And he knows where he is flying from and where." Everybody knows, he says. They all saw the whole thing. They has stood there and watched a missile being fired way up and landing probably less than a kilometer away (depending what spot he alleged). That smells of suspicious omniscience, employed to explain a fictional claim.
Some Arrested Plant Workers Probably Know It Quite Well
On August 17, following 4 UAF artillery attacks on the plant in a week, Russian-linked sources address the reported arrest of two plant workers in Energodar: artillery spotters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who "helped to strike at the territory of the nuclear power plant and the city. Two detainees are named. I don't feel like sharing the names here, but jobs: one was "a security guard at a 750 kV open switchgear (ORU-750)" (area hit by shelling on August 5) and the other is "an engineer." (not the same one that spoke to BBC?) Russian news video shows the arrest raid, a man laying face-down at gunpoint. We're shown notebooks full of numbers and diagrams, including of military vehicles. They had a crude but accurate model of the nuclear plant built up from scraps - see below. There's a raised security perimeter along the right lines, all 6 reactor blocks (but not turbine halls), and important nearby structures, including both special buildings, #2 with a "melted" smokestack and #1 with none at all. But they painted the stripes! They must just love their work. Source: Local administration head Vladimir Rogov on Telegram
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Former ZNPP Director Murashov Probably Knows It
As widely reported, the ZNPP's general director Igor Murashov was arrested on Sept. 30, blindfolded and driven off by Russian troops to an unknown location. Also well-known but less-reported, he was released on or by October 2, and allowed to go home to his family but not to manage the plant any longer. It wasn't immediately clear why, nor what he knew about the Ukrainian shelling - maybe he was found to shelter accomplices like the guys mentioned above.
Less know outside of Russia, that is alleged - https://tass.com/politics/1518339:
"Renat Karchaa, adviser to the general director of Rosenergoatom, on Wednesday said the former chief of the Zaporozhskaya NPP, Igor Murashov, had passed to Ukraine data about the plant, including Russian troops there" including, as he said, "Absolutely all data concerning the presence of Russia servicemen inside the perimeter,"
"Earlier, the head of Energodar, Alexander Volga, said that Murashov coordinated terrorist activities at the plant and in the city. He was expelled to the territory controlled by Kiev after admitting to having ties with the Ukrainian special services. In footage shown by the Rossiya-24 television channel on Monday the general director of the ZNPP said that he had passed information on the state of affairs at the plant to representatives of the Kiev regime. He said he was aware that the shelling of the strategic facility was done by the armed forces of Ukraine and could cause emergencies. Vladimir Rogov, chairman of the We Are Together with Russia civil society group, said Murashov had cooperated with the Security Service of Ukraine against his own free will, as he could have been blackmailed."
The UN and IAEA Know It
Acting Governor of the Zaporozhye Region Evgeny Balitsky said in an interview with RIA Novosti that IAEA employees at the ZNPP know who is shelling the station, but they are publicly silent, https://twitter.com/Natalia96058112/status/1578613338941968384
UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric thanked Russia for protecting the IAEA team on their way to visit the plant. “We are glad that the Russian Federation did what it needed to do to keep our inspectors safe,” It's not clear if that relates to stopping an alleged effort to seize the plant ahead of the inspection, to the shelling of Energodar that day, or to both. RT: UN thanks Russia for keeping nuclear team safe.
Russian-linked sources relate the invasion plan: overnight, a Special Operations unit landed "in the area of dachas north-east of the ZNPP and secretly occupied the initial lines of attack by 5 o'clock in the morning." Then at 5:20 Ukrainian artillery opened fire on Russian forces inside the plant. and "at about 6 am the attack of the first wave of troops began" as "a second wave (2 barges) left Nikopol" to reinforce the effort. "The forward detachment was supposed to knock down the forces of the National Guard from positions and break into the territory of the station. But the troops withstood the first strike, and at around 0700, Russian aviation (or helicopters) sank both barges with the second echelon, after which the entire capture plan was thwarted." (compiled sources)
So UAF allegedly tried to conquer the area immediately ahead of the inspectors, raising dangers that many would answer by turning back. But after some mid-distance gunfire, explosions and helicopters along the coast, things changed and the mission pushed ahead with thanks.
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There is a coastal spot where both lines of fire intersect, from which the shells in both those attacks might have been fired, albeit at very different ranges (less than 2km vs. more than 7km). The map below shows alleged landing sites for the UAF attackers, as given in the same compilation cited above, It doesn't include this spot (black circle), but maybe this was another place the first wave "secretly occupied" for a while, or maybe there was another group landing the Russians didn't even know about.
But then - sorry - that probably goes past what the inspectors or the UN would know.
Since that eventful morning, the International Atomic Energy Agency's team has been there, seen that open letter and the signatures, seen and even analyzed some of the damage firsthand, and then left 2 observers behind as most of them returned home. They're clear the plant was shelled on several occasions, threatening operations. But in their September 5 report, before and since, the IAEA apparently cannot say who is to blame, aside from someone within the class "all parties."
Western Leaders Know It
A September 9 statement from "the ministers of Foreign Affairs of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Ukraine and senior officials from the Republic of Korea, Switzerland, the United States of America, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy" says: "We emphasize that Russia’s seizure and militarization of the ZNPP is the root cause of the current threats in the field of nuclear safety and security. We recall that the heightened risks of a nuclear incident will remain dangerously high as long as Russia remains present on the site of ZNPP."
This passage suggests Western leaders cannot pin the actual shelling of the Russian-occupied plant on the Russians. They would do so if they could. Instead, they focus on the "root cause" in that Russian occupation. Now how does this translate to blame for the actual shelling attacks? Two options:
* The root cause of Russians attacking the plant is ... because Russian forces are there
* The root cause of Ukrainians attacking the plant is ... because Russian forces are there
Obviously it's the latter, and this emphasis on the 'root cause' rather than actual cause shows that Western leaders understand that Ukraine is responsible for the actual and deliberately reckless attacks on the plant. And they won't stop unless Russia leaves. They could demand that Ukraine stop, but they share the same goal as the attackers - to demonize and complicate Russia's occupation of the plant and hopefully force it to end. So they say nothing about the actual attacks. The only thing they even imply about the direct shelling of the ZNPP is that it's completely justified by Russia's presence, and so it should probably continue, or maybe even escalate.
Obviously, The Ukrainian Forces DOING It - And Their Relevant Leaders - Know What They're Doing.
Maybe they don't all know it, but President Zelenskyy for one seems to get it, so I imagine quite a few brighter people also realize.
It's his government that initially resisted an IAEA visit and investigation into the shelling. BBC, Aug. 3: "The IAEA's director-general said he was trying to put together a mission as soon as possible to visit the plant but this required the approval of both the Ukrainian and Russian sides ... In June, Ukraine's state nuclear company [Energoatom] said Ukraine had not invited the IAEA - and any visit would legitimise Russia's presence there." Bloomberg Aug. 8: "Russia told diplomats it’s ready to welcome international monitors" but "[IAEA director-General] Grossi said he needs permission from Ukraine’s government" but he still didn't have it. Al Jazeera, Aug. 8: "In a statement, Russia’s foreign ministry said it wanted the (IAEA) to visit ... but that Kyiv was blocking a potential visit. ... Zakharova also claimed Moscow had done everything it could to facilitate a visit by the UN’s nuclear watchdog to the plant but that Kyiv saw it as “beneficial to keep the IAEA away”."
"Mikhail Podolyak (& hence the Zelensky Office) are skeptical about the IAEA visit to the ZNPP. “International institutions and mediation missions look extremely ineffective, extremely cowardly. ...You don’t trust them already at the entrance,” said Podolyak." (Evdokimova) They could be another "Russian Propaganda front" like Amnesty International! You don't need people like snooping around.
The mission pushed ahead, arriving in Ukraine, crossing through Ukrainian territory as Kiev demanded, then faced shelling after it crossed to the Russian side, and UAF allegedly tried to conquer the area immediately ahead of the inspectors, again, raising dangers that are maybe best answered by turning back ... but after Russia blew some things up, the mission pushed ahead with thanks.
And what did the commander-in-chief of the alleged attacks have to say? Once the team arrived, Zelenskyy said "Today, the IAEA mission arrived at Zaporizhzhia NPP. It's good that it happened. The fact itself despite all the provocations by the Russian military and the cynical shelling of Enerhodar and the territory of the plant. Ukraine did everything to make this mission happen. But it is bad that the occupiers are trying to turn this IAEA mission - a really necessary one - into a fruitless tour of the plant. I believe that this will be prevented." I suspect he had just TRIED to prevent it and failed.
No one was explicitly called out. The motives and methods stayed about the same, and attacks continued into September and October before Zelenskyy "said the only way to ensure radiation safety near Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), as well as in the rest of Ukraine and Europe, is "the complete demilitarization of the territory" surrounding the plant." (Newsweek Oct. 6)
He suggests once the Russians are gone, attacks from all parties will stop. He thinks the Russians WON'T attack it then ... because they ONLY shell the places they are? And, of course, he thinks his own forces will finally stop attacking the plant then, if they ever were - which they weren't, except for the one time. So it's the first thing.
One way or another (it's the other), he insists the blame is all on Russia. But until his demands are met, it's Zelenskyy who seems quite sure someone will keep shelling the place and denying "radiation safety" to a lot of people far and wide. What do we call that, and how do we respond to it?
The Russians occupied the plant 3 March 2022. They would have had to be on a suicide mission to shell it. Wiki refers to "external" and "continued shelling." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_at_the_Zaporizhzhia_Nuclear_Power_Plant
ReplyDeleteHey James, old friend. Indeed, as many have noted, it's odd to create this risk when your own guys are at the center of it, when it could ruin a perfectly usable plant they supposedly want to steal, and might contaminate Crimea and all the annexed areas. But also the risk isn't that immediate - people can usually scramble to compensate and avoid disaster. But it must be hella stressful. And anyway, everybody knows who's doing it.
DeleteFor sure they would clear off, but fish would be off the menu for a while. Did you hear Lafarge got fined? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZQaIrQ6S20
DeleteThe risks of contamination from these plants affect the land, the air and the water. That plant is on a waterway that flows into the Black Sea. Contaminated land can be fenced off, though it's going to affect the ground water. Aerial contamination would be widespread with particles falling back down to earth over a large area. That can affect grazing animals. But the contamination of the Black Sea? Who wants cancer?
ReplyDeleteI'm off Twitter but I can still see what's going on, copy/paste. I'm on Discord with the Infrared people. They're young and sharp. They're all over Twitter. https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1583008683277324288?s=46&t=ocnnTyxfdNsidtay5y60Vw
ReplyDelete