Ukrainian Militarization: the "Root Cause" of Attacks on the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant?

September 23, 2022 (rough, incomplete) last edits 9/27

Let's consider an incident recently at the Pivdennoukrainsk (South Ukainian) nuclear power plant (SUNPP), aka Yuzhnoukrayinsk plant, for the town it's near. 

"Russian missiles struck the Pivdennoukrainsk Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine's southern Mykolaiv province overnight, Ukraine's state energy company Energoatom said on Monday. A blast took place 300 meters (1,000 feet) away from the reactors just after midnight, Energoatom said." It occurred overnight, just after midnight on September 19 (DW).

Vitaliy Kim. the head of Mykolayiv Regional Military Administration, said it was a powerful Iskander missile, and "he believes that this strike near the NPP is in order to cause minor damage and to blackmail the Ukrainian people in the future." (Center Ukraine on Twitter)

An extremely short, 15-second video of the attack was published by Energoatom - one posting by Ukrainian network TSN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWuVgZ2oXnk

Frequent collaborator Michael Kobs had a look at the video and some photos of the crater and noted some anomalies. (Twitter thread)

"Ukraine said yesterday a RU Iskander missed a reactor at the Yuzhnoukrayinsk NPP by 300 meters. The news was immediately amplified unchecked and not without calling for more weapons. However, as with the NPPZ, the published footage presents some puzzles."

Missile Impact Location

The camera in the video faces south from a tall building just south of the plant's 3 nuclear reactors. Michael broke the scene down by features, color-coded. I verified that it was correct, but decided to re-do it here with some minor changes. The magenta building is ~430m south of the nearest reactor, number 3, and the initial blast is clearly some ways further south of that. This is not going to be 300 meters from the reactors, or the 270m some have cited. 

My version - not originating the work, but I think improving it - field of view, then traced on the map, lines of sight from tall building on the left to the blast seen, and on the right 2 lines from building corners to help set camera position and overall view. 

This adds another line of sight from the south. Early morning photos show a large crater in the brush south of the plant, helping pick this closest match on the line of sight - just about 700m from the nearest reactor - over twice the distance claimed, but about 300m from the outer perimeter of the broader plant grounds. That likely being what they meant, it's probably no further out. 

The building in the background may be the larger special building 2, some 500m north. In between: tall trees, as marked above in blue - not clear which trees. Closest is the likely wall of that southern lot, traced in pink - not all that close. We can also note the crater is on a downslope, maybe of a small ravine, which seems to run E-W along this area 25m south of the wall. This lines up with the video blast not so well - perhaps even further east than drawn above. Maybe the two things don't correlate, and there were two strikes out there, one seen on video and the other in photos.

Add 9/27: A Reuters report adds a crater photo allowing a better geolocation. Mapped out below, a bit inexactly. Aside from the trees (dark blue), this lines up quite well with what we already had.  Maybe it's a bit west of this, explaining the trees.

A detailed France 24 report raises questions: "A few dozen metres from the gaping hole, a building ... appeared to have had its doors and windows blown out." The photos don't come through here. Reuters has a photo that doesn't match the nearby building near the lot's edge. Rather it seems to match the plant's special building, its corner marked yellow here, and is described as "a production facility ... at a compound of the Pivdennoukrainsk Nuclear Power Plant." 

If so, it's some 500 meters from the blast we've seen, something else not seen must have damaged its windows. That something might have been just 300m from the reactors, but it's not the distant blast they showed happening on video shortly after midnight, or anything in that field of view for those 15 seconds.

Trajectory: France 24 added: "Ivan Zhebet, security chief at the Pivdennoukrainsk plant ... pointed in the direction that the projectile arrived from. A compass reading by an AFP journalist indicated that it was fired from [or that Zhebet pointed towards/ the southeast, territory under Russian control." The soil dispersion in this photo is not terribly clear, suggesting either an impact from WEST (to the east - yellow) or, as Michael saw it, from the NORTH-northeast (to the SSW - orange). Nothing I see suggests southeast, displacing soil to the NW. But there is some soil there, it's foreshortened and on the far side. Undecided. (end 9/27 update)

As Michael noted (9/27: not from the above photo) "the earth was thrown out of the crater to the south or south-west. This would suggest that the projectile ... came from the northeast, from about the direction consistent with the earlier smoke trails." That is, it's likely came from the targeted area. 

Also: "so far I found no evidence for an Iskander" It's quite a large crater, but Iskanders tend to make even bigger ones. I'm not sure that's what he meant.

Rocket Exhaust Trails!

Michael: "Before the explosion, however, there already seem to be smoke trails in the air, but they seem to lead to the NE."

This is what really matters here. Before the blast, the video shows a faint trail of rocket exhaust angling up from the ground even closer to the plant than the Russian strike, testifying to projectiles recently launched from close to the plant, in this Ukrainian-held area. Regular then enhanced view, with outer edged of the plume(s) traced in red - a darker line runs down the middle, suggesting this is two plumes.

Location: lines of sight have the origin approximately lined up with the end of the left-hand elevated pipes marked gold (right-had pipes when seen from above). That's somewhere in this parking lot, NW corner to middle, some 80-120m from the edge of the plant, 450-490m from reactor 3.

Trajectory: The plumes run mostly perpendicular to the field of view, perhaps a bit towards the camera as well, or roughly northeast. Michael's line maps out pointing towards Rivne, Kropyvnytskyi, and Kremenchuk. The distance of travel isn't clear, and the angle may be different - perhaps less north. I'm not clear what Russian forces are around this area they might be firing at.

Energoatom are good patriots, and refused to show the video of these missiles being fired. That would complicate their politicized narrative of unprovoked Russian aggression against the plant. 

Compared to ZNPP

9/9 statement by Western governments that have always supported Ukraine calls on Russia to leave the larger Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP): "We emphasize that Russia’s seizure and militarization of the ZNPP is the root cause of the current threats in the field of nuclear safety and security. We recall that the heightened risks of a nuclear incident will remain dangerously high as long as Russia remains present on the site of ZNPP."

Joint statement - High-level meeting on the safety and security of civil nuclear facilities in armed conflicts (New York, 09 Sept. 22) - Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs (diplomatie.gouv.fr)

Shelling that was almost certainly all by the Ukrainian side is the actual cause of the dangers. But the direct cause is ignored in favor of the "root" cause that underpins that shelling - as if Ukraine has no choice in the matter. By this logic, Ukraine's militarization of the SUNPP other plant, and launching attacks from nearby, is the root cause of that troubling attack just 700m from a nuclear reactor. To ensure safety, Ukrainian forces should demilitarize the plant. But none of those leaders would ever say as much.

Comparing ZNPP and SUNPP: At ZNPP, Russian forces seem to have fired Grad rockets from within the plant grounds, albeit in the outer spray ponds area. And in response to this and any other real attacks, Ukraine has attacked that spot and a military tent camp with kamikaze drones on 20 July and admitted it, besides many attacks it denies; it has many times shelled more sensitive locations at the reactors (50m and less away), dry spent fuel storage (35m away), special buildings and pipes of the cooling system (several direct hits). At SUNPP, Ukraine fires from just outside the grounds, and Russia responds even further from the plant. Despite the inverted situations and different responses, Russia has been blamed for all problems at both plants, and Ukraine for none of them. That won't be 100% opposite of the truth, but far closer to that than to 100% true.

This missile battle at the SUNPP also shows what Ukraine would do if they're allowed to re-militarize the Zaporizhzhia plant like they did at the start of Russia's invasion, when they triggered a 2 hour battle inside the plant. 

Add 9/25: Clarifying the implications of this statement: Western leaders cannot pin the actual shelling of the Russian-occupied plant on the Russians. They would do so if they could. Instead, they focus on the "root cause" in that Russian occupation. Now how does this translate to blame for the actual shelling attacks? Two options:

* The root cause of Russians attacking the plant is ... because Russian forces are there

* The root cause of Ukrainians attacking the plant is ... because Russian forces are there

Obviously it's the latter, and this emphasis on root cause rather than actual cause shows that Western leaders understand that Ukraine is responsible for the actual and deliberately reckless attacks on the plant. They could demand that Ukraine stop, but instead, they shift the focus and try to ignore the facts, because they share the same goal as the attackers - to demonize and complicate Russia's occupation of the plant and hopefully force it to end. 

Add 9/27: Commenting on the strike on the Telegram messaging app, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said: "The invaders wanted to shoot again, but they forgot what a nuclear power plant is. Russia endangers the whole world. We have to stop it before it's too late." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-strikes-pivdennoukrainsk-nuclear-power-plant-reactors-2022-09-19/