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Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Sergei Kolosei, the Bucha Massacre's First Named "Suspect"

May 19, 2022

(rough, incomplete)

Bucha Massacre {masterlist} 

A First Lead in a Leading War Crimes Case

Ukrainian authorities will be especially keen to secure justice for the Massacre at Bucha (or Buchi, as it's often given). Russian forces killed some 400 civilians, as it's told, during a month-long occupation of this town almost at the Kyiv's doorstep. This is the big story that supposedly clarified Russia's boundless brutality, that brought even Germany - along with Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden to expel Russia's ambassadors in early April. Expanded EU economic sanctions were inspired by "the atrocities committed by Russian armed forces in Bucha" during March. (Wikipedia: Bucha Massacre)

But in Ukraine's investigation of the killings at Bucha, the first big lead seems to be a massive blunder that raises questions about the entire effort. 

On the 2nd of May came some big news: the Ukrainian General Prosecutor's office issued a statement describing a certain unnamed suspect who sounded quite guilty:

"Under the procedural guidance of the Bucha District Prosecutor's Office, a serviceman of the Federal Service of the National Guard of the Russian Federation was suspected and reported in absentia of violating the laws and customs of war combined with premeditated murder (parts 1, 2 of Article 438 of the Criminal Code). ... The issue of declaring the suspect on the international wanted list is being resolved."

Specifically, the suspect was accused of executing four civilians and beating and threatening another "to confess to subversive activities against the Russian army." Furthermore, "his involvement in other war crimes in the Kyiv region is currently being investigated." 

This story had some help in the preceding days: Richard Lloyd Parry at The Slimes of London would write on April 28 how he was shown a video - by Ukrainian prosecutor Ruslan Kravchenko -  of four men being executed on March 18. No suspect is mentioned. The next day, Chris Jewers at the UK Daily Fail would also tell of that crime and its victims, adding that Ukrainian prosecutors "were investigating 10 Russian soldiers for alleged war crimes in Bucha." The statement highlighting one of these came four days later.

Iryna Valentynivna Venediktova (Ірина Валентинівна Венедіктова) is Ukraine's first female prosecutor general, the first woman to hold this office. She rode to power in 2018-19 with Zelensky's “Servant of the People” party. Previously she was Director of the State Bureau of Investigations, with a background in civil law and science, having authored "more than 100 scientific and scientific-methodical works published in national and foreign publications." (Iryna Venediktova - Wikipedia) With steely-eyed resolve and presumably scientific methodology, she hunts down Russian war criminals who harm her fellow Ukrainians, notably in Bucha. 

On May 2, she would take the day's statements a step further, publishing the suspect's name on her Facebook account, along with details of his alleged crimes: 

"The first suspect in the Buchi murders has been identified - the commander of the National Guard Unit of the Russian Federation Sergei Kolosei," rank apparently unknown. 

Venediktova sought to anchor the allegation to the undeniable visual record, placing Mr. Kolosei on March 18 at one of the most famous killing sites, at a roundabout where Yablunska and Yaremchiuka streets meet. It was "one of the symbols of the atrocities in Bucha," as she said. One man was bound and presumably executed. Three others (one of them, as she notes, is off-frame here) might have been executed or killed by the shelling evidenced at the site. (see here - Monitor post f/c) Also by March 18, it seems quite unlikely Russian forces were operating at this far corner of town in what was always a no-man's land. 


Next, who she tied to those killings, also in visual form:

"The second photo is the commander of the unit of the Administration of the Federal Service of the National Guard of the Russian Federation Ulyanovsk region. At the Belarusian post office with colleagues-military personnel sends [looted goods] to the homes of their compatriots. His "gift" from Ukraine to Ulyanovsk is the hood of a car trunk."

How they made this connection with that video or established Kolosei's status was not explained. This is what we'll explore below: "a circular investigation gets twisted." 

But according to Venediktova, his guilt for atrocities was already "found" through a rigorous police investigation: "Buchi prosecutors and police have found that it was this soldier who killed four unarmed men in Buchi on March 18." Separately, on March 29, he was accused of forcing another citizen "to confess to the fake activity against the Russian army," employing beatings, a mock execution, and "forcing him to smell a dead man." (Russian forces would leave Bucha entirely by March 31). 

"Are You Crazy?" Kolosei Refutes the Charges

Thousands re-posted and re-publicized these accusations, spurring wishes for Mr. Kolosei's imprisonment, death and/or swift entry into Hell. Mostly this was in social media; high-profile endorsements of the allegation might have been planned - it seems they had been prepared for. But no big news articles appeared before the story was instantly cast into serious doubt. 

Some strong refutations quickly emerged, were given a decent hearing, and thus far (2 weeks on), have faced no serious rebuttals. No less a mainstream source than Ukrainian Pravda would report on Mr. Kolosei's denials the same day, May 2. This gives direct quotes including (translated): 

“I don’t serve in the National Guard. Are you crazy? ... Before you accuse someone of something, establish all the details, otherwise you will be accused of threatening and slandering peaceful citizens of other states." 

Pravda cited Медуза — LIVE, citing Можем объяснить (We Can Explain): "The MO correspondent managed to find the suspect in Vkontakte and talk to him. For some reason, he is registered on the social network under another surname - Kalotsky, but admits that his real last name is Kolotsy." 

The quotes cited around follow, so apparently MO interview by VKontakte is the original source. See also as needed: Nasha Niva - UNIAN citing Zeralko (Belarus). Additional information would appear on a new Instagram page Mr. Kolose started to refute the allegations, A Belarusian news video he shares there may be helpful for those who can understand the words.

Between all sources, here is what's undisputed about the suspect: Name: Sergey Aleksandrovich Kolosei (Сергія Александрович Колоцея), age 35, from Mozyr, Belarus. A former Mixed Martial Arts fighter with a short, unimpressive career ("Kolotsei accumulated an 0-2 professional record in MMA and last competed at an M-1 Global event in 2010, losing via unanimous decision." MMA News) He has reportedly scuffled with the police, which he did time for, and "has been convicted twice" - the other time "for evading military service" in Belarus. (Nasha Niva) At an office of the Russian CDEK express delivery service in Mozyr, on April 2, he mailed a trunk lid from a car to Ulyanovsk, Russia.

From there, things are disputed.  Kolosei says he had remained in Belarus for the last 2 years, and has never joined anyone's military.  Acquaintances say he's been in Mozyr "throughout the war, he is regularly seen at work, on the way to kindergarten, on walks with his six-year-old son," and "he has been working as an engineer at the Mozyr Oil Refinery for about five years." (Zeralko) He was apparently seen on a store's security camera in Mozyr on March 25, in between supposed crimes in Bucha. (SK on Instagram) He sold a car trunk lid online to a guy in Ulyanovsk (not clear why - it was badly damaged), shipped it April 2 when many Russian soldiers were also there shipping goods. The next day, he was accused of hideous war crimes had had no connection to. 

In contrast, Venediktova and company say - or suggest - that Kolosei joined the Russian national guard at some point, attained some unknown rank, and came to command "the unit of the Administration of the Federal Service of the National Guard of the Russian Federation Ulyanovsk region." They found - or assumed - that he led this force in Ukraine, abused locals in Bucha, stole a trunk lid (presumably a nice and intact one), returned to his hometown in Mozyr, and mailed that trunk lid to his new hometown in Ulyanovsk. They might say he was now making up lame excuses and fake video evidence, if they were saying anything at all. 

If I were more into the who's-who and how you check (anyone else?) I could check if "the commander of the unit of the Administration of the Federal Service of the National Guard of the Russian Federation Ulyanovsk region" is even specific enough to determine who commands it. And can we check if that unit was even in Ukraine, let alone anywhere near Bucha? If only Russian or Belarusian records are available, it will be fair game in some minds to assume they're fake, and so the draft dodging Belarusian MMA fighter really was a secret top Russian general or whatever.

A Circular Investigation Gets Twisted

How all of this was it decided isn't clearly explained - it's an active investigation, after all. Sources and methods need protected. But cited reasons are:

* Witnesses recognized Kolosei's face from crimes in Bucha, with at least two witnesses to two events having done so. 

A fungible "memory" of Kolosei's face is no basis to assume a secret military career in Russia that involved a brutal and totally unproven tour in Ukraine. Eyewitness evidence is notoriously unreliable, and subject to leading. For example, if a victim sees a face presented as a soldier already suspected of war crimes like, perhaps, the one you saw ... they might trick themselves into remembering just that face. Then they could trick themselves into being 100% certain of it, especially if they had prosecutors encouraging them. 

* An OSINT investigation was also cited as helpful. 

PG statement: "The identity of the Rosguard serviceman who killed people in the city of Bucha was established thanks to the measures taken by prosecutors and the help of journalists "Investigation-info"". Venediktova: "Special thanks again "Investigation-info" («Слідство-інфо») who helped the investigation." 

A separate activist group in Belarus - "the monitoring group of the Hajun Project" - also seems central, but went unmentioned here. We'll start with that below.  

It seems none of the OSINT work turned up anything to explain how Mr. Kolosei would be fighting in Ukraine. But that was already decided, based on the unexplained evidence. The lack of supporting evidence was no big issue. They already had enough, be it zero or a lot. 

1) Doxxed For Shipping Near Soldiers

First came the video footage from a shipping office in Belarus, and a list of names somehow obtained by the Belarusian anti-government activists of Hajun Project. These were published on their site Motolko-Help on April 3 - as it so happens, just as news of the Bucha massacre was spreading. Following a roughly one-day investigation into shipping records and 3 hours of video footage from the day before, they revealed their bombshell findings - heavy packages were sent to Russia, and they could name names. 

"Yesterday, April 3, the Hajun Project published a 3-hour recording from an online camera of the CDEK delivery service in Mazyr (Belarus), through which soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces send, among others, things stolen from Ukrainian citizens.

Now the monitoring group of the Hajun Project has received an impressive set of personal data on criminals, who, according to the authors of the project, should be held responsible for stealing and killing people in Ukraine."

Just on April 2, "more than 2 tons" of various goods were sent to Russia from this office, they wrote, "a significant part of which is stolen." It's not clear how they decided which items were stolen, but it seems the criteria was the weight of the package. They had that data somehow, and singled out every package over 50kg that was sent by a "soldier." The item sent from Mozyr are mostly tools, spare parts, clothes, TVs, an air conditioner ... No one was such a thief as to send 100kg of stolen bricks, but these are useful items, possibly high end. They're partly or totally stolen, for all I know, and entirely innocent for all the Hajun Project knows. Nonetheless: 

"The project published the names, phone numbers, and parcel contents of those soldiers who sent parcels of 50-450 kilograms to Russia. We publish this data unchanged" so the general public can help to "hold accountable" these "criminals, who, according to the authors of the project, should be held responsible for stealing and killing people in Ukraine." 

16 names, phone numbers or phone numbers of relatives or wives are then provided. None of the entries includes a military rank or even a specifically military address the package was sent to, but the video shows most of the customers were uniformed soldiers. And the one singled out for naming by the general prosecutor's office ... is NOT even one of those. But he got listed anyway: "Kolotsei, Sergey Aleksandrovich," who sent a 90 kg. trunk lid to Ulyanovsk. A relative's personal phone number was included. 

The looting story and this list of suspects was widely circulated (e.g. Kyiv Independent), and it had an effect: "[Kolosei] also reports that his social media accounts have been hacked and his family has received numerous threats." (Unian) SK on Instagram: "To date, my page in VKontakte has been hacked! I and my loved ones are being threatened!!! Please stop!!! And before you draw any conclusions about anyone, first make sure the information is correct!!!" 

"I hope no one has to face what I had to face," he said. But others on that list who actually were Russian soldiers have likely experienced the same, or possibly worse, for no actual and certain wrongdoing - just because they shipped something that might have been stolen, and some hacks with an agenda decided to dox them all as murderers.

Security video from the CDEK office was included with the article (direct Youtube posting). It's 3 hours and 19 minutes long. The camera or its titles are upside down, dated for a Saturday in 1970. At 1:00:40 Mr. Kolosei first enters the office (video time 3:14:20). In a dark jacket, he can be seen noticing the crowded situation ahead of him in line, and briefly chatting with a soldier at the door, by gestures, about just that. He goes ahead to the desk and asks a question, allowing a clear view of his face. 

He then leaves, and comes back 5 minutes later with his awkward package (1:05:45), and gestures to the desk, asking if he can cut back in. Instead, he squeezes into line with his awkward package and waits. 12 minutes later he's got the package sent, receipt in pocket, and he leaves the shop, presumably to go back home. He does not pass on any commands or even chat with the soldiers on his way out.

But he sent an item over 50kg to Russia, and he was a "soldier," as the Hajun Project assumed, and so he "should be held responsible for stealing and killing people in Ukraine." 

2) "Identified" From the Doxxing

Threats, harassment or worse could start whenever. But for legal proceedings, the Hajun Project suggests that first someone should implicate these soldiers in a specific crime. And it seems that happened, at least with Mr. Kolosei. 

This video appeared just as the Bucha Massacre was first making news April 2-4. Quite likely some witnesses to crimes there, or people claiming to be witnesses, also saw this video, and the man NOT in uniform stood out. They apparently filed at least two reports attached to that face, and that must have gotten back to Ukraine's prosecutors. It might have looked impressive; "this soldier seems especially involved, and he doesn't even need to wear the uniform. He must be high level there in, let's see ... Ulyanovsk."

But they had to match that face to a name, and there were 16 named "soldiers" with described packages to pick from. His package was pretty unique, likely the trunk lid listed. That would likely make him Mr. Kolosei, and a quick internet search could confirm that. But maybe this seemed beyond the capabilities of the prosecutor general's office, or just extra risky. So naturally they needed some help, or someone to take the blame if the project failed. 

They found "Investigation-info" «Слідство-інфо». This seemingly well-connected outfit explained their role in the Kolosei case with an article: The Belarusian suspected in the shooting of four hostages in Bucha: what we know about him and an included video called Bucha Executioner: Russian military suspect in murder of four Ukrainian civilians. Note the blacked-out eyes here, where the whole point is revealing Kolosei's identity. Is that just to make him look more suspicious? Or is that a more ominous signal?

As the video host, Dmitry Replyanchuk, explains, it was very important to find the actual perpetrator of "such a cynical murder of unarmed Ukrainians" and so "our team also joined the investigation into this war crime." Of course, pursuing false leads can only hamper such efforts. 

As Replyanchuk says, Kolosei was caught on video when "the occupiers and looters returned to Belarus after fleeing Kyiv and sent the looted property to their relatives in Russia." From that video capture, "Witnesses recognized the face of Sergei Kolosei in this video." and so "according to the official investigation, Sergei Kolosei commanded one of the units of the Russian occupiers" and "police claim Kolosei himself shot dead four men in this photo." 

In a comment beneath the video, "Investigation-Info" first questioned Kolosei's denials: "And how do you know that he is not a soldier? Because he said so in an interview?" Technically, that's a fair question, but later, when pressed on the point ("it is wrong to hang such a sin on an innocent person") they explained:

"We completely agree with you that the situation needs further investigation. Our task as journalists was to identify the person in the screenshot. We did it well. Kolosei confirmed that it was him in the video from the mail. ..." It was an extremely easy task. It's being done or done well was never an issue. The point may have been to have Investigation-info doing it, not the prosecutors. 

"... In our article, we refer to the official investigation and the prosecutor's office in the case of the murder. Victims and witnesses claim that Kolsei committed the crimes." And wouldn't that be troubling if witnesses were blaming people who couldn't possibly be guilty? And if professional state prosecutors aggressively used that evidence anyway? 

The reply concluded: "Of course, we will not leave this situation to chance and will investigate further." I asked on Twitter if they had learned anything yet, but I didn't get a reply yet. 

Conclusion

As Dmitry Replyanchuk said in the "Investigation-Info" video, "every criminal has a name, a military rank, and most importantly - a face." Ok this one doesn't have a rank anyone's been able to find, but still, his team correlated a face and a name and "criminal" was already alleged. 

Venediktova had to offer "Special thanks again "Investigation-info", who helped the investigation." But it wasn't complete yet; "we are testing him for involvement in other murders in Buchy as well." Memories might be jogged, and she encouraged that: "!! ️If you recognize this Russian civil servant and have evidence of his involvement in other atrocities - send evidence to our only hub https://warcrimes.gov.ua/ or contact the Kyiv Regional Prosecutor's Office," with phone numbers following.  

They might have taken 50 tips by people who say he's the one behind other crimes, even swearing that they see his face in their dreams every night ... But so far, no one can rebut his denials or alibi, and the camera can only see him hanging around in Mozyr for this whole time. Kolosei still seems to be unchallenged winner in this fight Ukraine picked with him - a far bigger victory than his MMA career every brought, and he hardly had to move. He just had to exist, notice, and react: "Are you crazy? ... the Ukrainian prosecutor’s office should blame everyone who sends parcels to Russia." 

Some observations regarding Ukraine's investigation:

* Again, we have affirmation that eyewitness evidence is often unreliable. It can be deliberately dishonest, and it can be led to any conclusion, especially by unscrupulous prosecutors. It doesn't bode well for the investigative process under DG Venediktova that their witnesses clearly identify people who were never near Bucha. 

* Everyone else implicated in such a process - even the ones that really are soldiers who served in Ukraine - might also be wrongly blamed. There is a solid reason for skepticism here. 

* Ukrainian authorities may be short on solid leads that point to Russia, even among actual Russian servicemen doxed just for being at that postal office, or just for being in Bucha, like the one who supposedly spray-painted his own instagram handle at an occupied house, and no one thought to spray over it. 

* Ukrainian authorities could be sitting a litany of leads pointing to their own forces, but we wouldn't hear about that. More likely, a litany of such leads exists, but was never even reported to them.

3 comments:

  1. next one is Shyshimarin: https://nypost.com/2022/05/13/ukraine-puts-russian-soldier-vadim-shyshimarin-accused-of-war-crime-on-trial/

    ReplyDelete
  2. I read somewhere that these were soldiers returning from Crimea.

    ReplyDelete
  3. It crossed my mind that they were stocking up on items because they just got paid, and somehow things were cheaper there, or more available. Stolen stuff is entirely likely, somewhere in there. But it's stupid to assume it was all stolen, and stupider to just call people murderers just for shipping stuff. But that's the kind of stupid notion we're compelled to buy, at whatever price.

    ReplyDelete

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