Death in Bucha's Gray Zone, part 7:
Inaugurating a "Reign of Terror" on Yablunska
July 10, 2022
(rough, incomplete)
Perhaps the best case for a genocidal Bucha Massacre came on March 5, when Russian tanks rolled in to northeast Yablusnka street and "a Russian sniper began firing on anything moving." Counting those with clear locations, at least 18 civilians were killed here between March 4 and mid-day on March 10 - most of them visually confirmed and geolocated - with as many as 15 of them on the 5th.
I started with great skepticism over these killings pinned on Russia, but having learned more of the military situation, the scope for any "false-flag" operations appears quite limited. Russian forces are probably responsible for the vast bulk of the violence examined here, but not all of it. Some clear war crimes are described, including at least one field execution and several shootings by snipers, and these claims have some support or at least can't all be ruled out. However, most incidents are murkier and require some study to compare the stories with the other available evidence.
Some early deaths at 203 Yablunska
First, some examples of what I'm not counting, but include as possibly relevant - as related in some detail at another Monitor post, a connected-seeming local Oleksandr Konovalov claimed, in a June report to RFE/RL, to have found 11 bodies in a cellar near his home at 203 Yablunska, something no other sources I've seen mention.
Back on April 2 or 4, also speaking to RFE/RL, he only knew of 4 early deaths, buried and separate from the 11. None of them has further corroboration, and only one has a clear date. Therefore, I won't count these among the 18 below. Pointing to building 203A, Konovalov says six men and four women were living there when the Russians came. "They killed three men out of six." over days. He leads with "[The Russian troops] came here on February 27," but "the first day" for killings might refer to their arrival as occupiers, given by a few sources as March 3.
2/27 or 3/3: "On the first day, they shot Yevhen on the street for no obvious reason. No one knows why." No victim of that name known to me, and no deaths here are known on either day. Burial place, if any, is unclear.
2/28 or 3/4" The next day, they shot Leonid. That morning, he showed them his documents and said that he lived here. He was shot in the back when he turned around." (gestures towards graves). A man who lived nearby - Entry 1 below, Valerii Kizilov - was reported shot by soldiers sometime on the 4th at his own and different home. On either day, Leonid too seems a new story.
2/28 or 3/4, or a later day: "They killed the third man when they were drunk. They told him to hand over their mobile phones. He brought the phones, and they shot him and then threw a grenade at him. He was buried in pieces without his head. It was horrible." (points to graves) That's a strange story we've never heard. The guy blown up AND shot, admittedly for no logical reason ("drunk") ... after collaborating with the Russians by delivering the phones of locals ... perhaps he was killed by a mortar shell or the like, from the Kiev side, maybe aiming for the soldiers. Maybe an Azov Battalion drone was used, lessening the likelihood this collaborator was killed on accident. If so, it would have to re-branded as a Russian crime, and the dumber the better, from the mindless, corrupted and self-destructive "orcs" of Banderite fairy tales. Either way - what remarkably poor luck had this building, at the edge of Bucha's no-man's land and Kiev's defense by artillery.
Finally, as what seems a side-note, Oleksandr adds "My brother was killed on March 5 at around 5 o'clock when he was walking to a cellar. He was buried over there," pointing east. That's a date, but no name or killing location. It sounds like a match with #14, Roman, except for a different burial location. If this refers to one already listed, I can't say which. I won't count it in the 18. But before counting, note this could add 3 or 4 to the area total, or even more if some of those 11 in the cellar were killed this early.
3/4-3/10 East Yablunska Killings
As widely reported, a reign of terror with random shootings and tank shelling along Yablunska street was ushered in with a bang on the 5th, after a smaller start on the 3rd. This is one of the few places Kiev's forces would be most capable of operating in, by virtue of two nearby river crossings from Irpin into Bucha's east and south. But that may not matter in these days and with these killings.
Here, we'll consider at least 18 people killed between March 4 and March 10 on and near this 2-block stretch of Yablunska street (2 happened a block south, one a bit north). As many as 15 of these killing happened on March 5, at least one was reportedly on the 4th, one on the 6th, 17 dead by March 7, all 18 by noon on the 10th. In this central area, there's a lot of information from dated visuals and reports to cross-correlate it all with some confidence. This post expands on and improves my early "Mortar Alley" starter post. This overview map improves on the one there, which had placed the roundabout one block east, stretching the scene - that's fixed here. (the killings at that roundabout are not included here, happening a bit past the present timeframe.)
What we know about the circumstances of these are related below, in mostly chronological order.
1) Valerii Kizilov: Reuters and Digital Journal report Russian forces first arrived in south-central Bucha on March 3. commandeering the home of Vitalii Zhyvotovskyi. As told, they made him and his daughter stay in the basement, while they lived upstairs and brought people who were beaten and sometimes executed on-site. The first reported killing came on their second day, March 4: Valerii Kizilov, 70, stepped out of a cellar where he and his wife were hiding, across the street at 64 Vodprovidna. His wife, Lyudmyla Kizilova, 67, "heard shooting, then silence and an order shouted to her. “If there is someone down there, come out or I’ll throw a grenade in." She came out, was allowed to live and stay with the Zhyvotovskyis in their basement.
Mrs. Kizilov says she later found Vitalii's body, shot in the head, and the Russians buried it in their garden March 9. She and the Zhyvotovskyis managed to flee on the 10th. Photos of the Zhyvotovskyi house with the Reuters report match with Vodoprovidna 55 (not numbered on Google Maps or on Yandex maps but logically it would be 55). Another article includes a photo "Lyudmyla Kizilova ... outside their partially destroyed house in town of Bucha, northwest of Kyiv, on April 27, 2022. " It looks like Vodoprovidna 64, right across the street. Her house was still intact March 12-13, had been shelled and burned by the 23rd (Azov drone views), along with #55, with fires and escape tracks across the field behind.
We don't have visual confirmation of the body or grave, but it seems likely enough, and it's dated with a name and story, the earliest such death in this area.
2) Irina Filkina: Catherine Philp wrote for the Times April 9: "The first to die on Yablunska Street was a female cyclist whose death was captured by a Ukrainian drone..." It was on March 5, not March 3, as the video initially claimed, so not quite the first. Her case has its own post here to consider the details. The time is not certain, at first seeming to me like close to the 5PM curfew, but reportedly in the morning, earlier than Oleg Abramov was killed. His wife (also named Iryna - I spell them differently to help avoid confusion) "said that she saw the body of a woman lying next to a bicycle a few meters from their gate, just after Russian forces shot and killed her husband."
3) Oleg Abramov: This too has a dedicated post, to be updated. Irina Filkina was shot right in front of the home of Volodomyr Abramov, his daughter Iryna Abramova, and her husband Oleg Abramov (who took his wife's name). Sometime in the morning, after Filkina's killing, one of the same armored vehicles pulled up closer, and in most versions, they tossed a "grenade" in the window, or perhaps fired a tank or even mortar shell ("projectile"), starting a fire. There's also a gas generator being started at the time to consider, and fragmentation marks all along the fence still to analyze. Whatever it was, and/or some later event blew the roof and some upper walls away from about 20m square. That happened prior to noon on March 10 (satellite), quite likely on the 5th just after the drone footage discussed above, For all we know, a Ukrainian mortar crew tried to hit the Russian column but hit the house instead.
Then, as the story has been told many times now, the soldiers shot the gate with their rifles (it was unlocked), stormed into the yard and ordered everyone out, asking over and over where "the Nazis" were. No one knew. While the house burned, they had Oleg take off his shirt, presumably to check for Nazi tattoos. Finding no tattoos, facing no resistance, the soldiers shot Oleg in the head right there on the corner, killing him. They then sent Iryna and her father away, after a 3-hour interrogation, having them walk southwest on Yablunska, away from the frontline, where they found some shelter for the coming weeks.
Iryna says she "always thought of [the Russians] as our brothers," being half-Russian herself. Of course, she changed her mind about that, thanks to the described events. Iryna says "She thinks they [executed Oleg] to scare others in Bucha into submission." The message would be "this is what happens to people who don't resist, have no known weapons, no military service, no Nazi tattoos, no Nazi addresses to give." It would not be in the Russians' rational interest. This sounds like up-close execution for no reason by villains in full cartoon mode, with a strong dose of suspicious irony. We're probably missing part of the story, but even after some closer looking, it's not clear just what. To be continued.
4) Another Body (and Maybe Another): Iryna Abramova saws she saw "bodies" already on the street when Oleg was killed. Irina Filkina was one (on the sidewalk next to the downed pole), and only one other is seen right there later. That body (seemingly adult male, with a white armband) is visible by satellite on March 10, in drone views on March 12/13 covered with a white banner, then uncovered by March 25 to April 2 and then moved to the sidewalk. The body was originally near a car that, by the drone video of the 5th, had already been shot or shelled and was partially crushed - maybe by a heavy truck as opposed to a tank. "On the night of March 4, [Iryna and Oleg] heard huge trucks passing in the road." It's not clear whose trucks, nor driving which way. Video analysis suggests all the marked items were down like this prior to the Abramov killing.
The car seems to change positions from the March 5 image. Different ways to read that.
Not mentioned: another body inside the Abramovs' gate. Iryna mentions a male cousin lived there, but never said if he was involved in the events of the 5th. As of March 25 anyway, a body is visible inside their gate (marked above as "??"), and can later be seen in views like the above, inside the gate laying next to Oleg's motorcycle. If the cousin were away, or had evacuated like most, anyone else is more likely to get killed here later. We'll count this death as an undated maybe, 4b on the overview map due to possible incident connection, but excluded from the count and "at least" tallies.
5,6) Volodomyr Brovchenko and another Man: The tanks in front of the Abramov house had already been doing stuff seen on video, like shooting cyclist Irina Filkina. The lead tank fires five times, and in one case, a glowing tank shell is visible (Qoppa). This can be approximately lined up with the tank's cannon turret and the line extended to estimate where it was aimed - not at Filkina but more straight down the street. The drone view doesn't go far enough to show an impact, but I marked features on a wider view that did and skewed that sketch until it fit here, to extend the view (approximate). It roughly intersects with a tree that was splintered and downed in front of 221 Yablunska, apparently on March 5. That should only require one shell; it's not clear where others might have impacted.
Immediately next to that tree is the corpse of a man with a blue bicycle, in some views guarded by a loyal dog. He was most likely killed in the same strike that splintered the tree. I have previously written that this was "probably" hit from the southeast, mainly because other nearby impacts showed that (see "Mortar Alley" starter post). But the fence damage mainly to the east of the tree and runs for a ways, plus the way the tree toppled (see images below) fit much better with a tank shell fired from the west, as suggested here.
AFP, "Death on Yablunska: Four lives that ended in Bucha" (one posting at The Star): Volodymyr Brovchenko, 68, was "shot dead while pedalling up Yablunska around March 5. A neighbour tried to pull his corpse from the street, and that man ended up getting shot too" but not fatally (and maybe somewhere else, really). "Brovchenko thus lay on the pavement with a blue bike for weeks." The other bicyclist in this stretch, with orange gloves, is named in the same article, and he died on the 6th, so this one with a blue bike must be him.
Another man with no details is dead just on the other side of that tree, probably killed in that same shelling, collapsed with a small bag of groceries (maybe just baby potatoes). I've seen no reports with details on that one. but Mr. Brovchenko ...
A CBC News video (3:00) shows the same man and says "Volodomyr Brovchenko was killed by a sniper around March 5, according to neighbors. He was on his way to work at an orphanage in Vorzel." (Vorzel is just west of Bucha). Catherine Philp, The Times, April 9: "It was March 5" exactly, when "Volodymyr Borovchenko stepped out on Yablunska Street ... to reach the disabled children he cared for at an orphanage in Vorsel." He kept stepping, they heard, not pedaling. "...he moved gingerly. But he walked into an ambush. A sniper had been lying in wait, determined to keep the street clear of all human life."
Small tears visible on his coat - similar to but denser than those seen on Irina Filkina's coat (and bicycle seat?) Apparently that's what this kind of tank shelling does.
Confirming that 2 men were killed here, and killed first, TBS News Dig (Japan): A man on Yablunska said "When I looked through the hole in the wall on March 5 and 6, there were already bodies," In an accompanying video report, at 2:40 a video is shared, with a date shown as March 5, 12:04 PM. What's visible vs. what's blurred suggests the tree and 2 men are down; the whole areas is covered with one wide blur. They blur bodies in Japan, and can show brush like this, but one blur was easier. marked here with 2 white circles and a blue curve, for bodies and the tree.
The van might be present, but likely is not (green box) Not present yet: The spilled oil from the burned van, and probably the van itself - an oil streak from another attack on a car - the apparent driver of that car, executed on the street. If the time on this is correct, all those things happened after noon of March 5.
7) Mykhailo Kovalenko
The body missing from that view was probably that of Mykhailo Kovalenko, age 62, going by AFP's "Death on Yablunska" report: "While it was still possible, Mykhailo Kovalenko, his wife and daughter tried on March 5 to escape Bucha by car." Their route apparently included west on Yablunska, towards the Irpin crossing. It was just before that left turn that Artem, the boyfriend of Kovalenko's daughter, says Kovalenko ""got out of the vehicle with his hands up" to present himself to a checkpoint manned by Russian soldiers." Nonetheless, Artem says, "the troops opened fire." His wife and daughter were able to run away, Artem says, even though the wife was shot in the leg as she ran - not injured in an attack on the car. No such attack is included in this telling; it sounds like they stopped voluntarily upon seeing the checkpoint, and were shot individually from there.
A later AFP report: "On the right in a black coffin is Mykhailo Kovalenko, 62, a father who was killed by a Russian sniper as he tried to escape, according to his grieving son-in-law." This indirect witness is the only one we've heard from.
Handy description from "Death on Yablunska": Mr. Kovaleko's body lay on its side, dressed in a "blue parka and smart beige trousers." That's probably the body seen here, just behind a van he wasn't driving. But it seems that he was initially next to a car, the one his wife and daughter fled from.A more detailed report from ZN.UA ("Mirror of the Week?") in May includes a photo looking inside the van to show less than four peoples' worth of carbonized tissue in 4 seats, the rest of it probably nearby. The victims are listed as: Zhanna Kameneva, Maria Ilchuk, 14-year-old Anya Mishchenko and her mother Tamila Mishchenko.
Zn.ua spoke to Zhanna's bereaved husband Gennady (Kamanev?), who has served in the Ukrainian Armed Forces since February 24. That day, she evacuated their children. After nthat, "Joan [Zhanna] in Bucha transported people's products from our store and, if possible, took out friends and those who asked for help. ...On March 3, she told me that people would come and take the last products. On the 4th, she came home to Bucha, moved to the night and on March 5 she already wanted to go to Irpin."
It's not clear exactly how to read that passage - what "products" there was in whose "store" in Bucha the "last" of which was so urgently needed in government-held Irpin? "People" would take it, but we hear Mrs. Kamaneva herself "was carrying food to Irpin." Gennady and Zhanna are both described as "volunteering." In his case, it's with the Ukrainian military, and perhaps in her case as well. The nature of this March 5 mission is a bit unclear, in a way that might be very relevant.
"On the morning of March 5, Zhanna called me and said that she had come to Bucha and saw how enemy equipment came to our Lech Kaczynski Street." What he calls "our street" is the location of the same day's killing of the Chikmaryov family reportedly by said tanks, at 7:15 AM. It's unclear if she had been there overnight or came in the morning, but either way she might have seen that event, or the aftermath of it. If so, she doesn't mention it. "I asked her to be careful and she said, "I love you very much."
Ilchuk (the "employee"?), was ill and suffering in the cold. She turned down an early evacuation offer, but now "agreed to go with [Zhanna] when she saw what atrocities the occupiers were committing in Bucha." Tamila Mishchenko was apparently Zhanna's employer, and not a close neighbor. Her son, and Anya's older brother, Evgeny said "it so happened that my mother's employee Zhanna, who was a volunteer, was carrying food to Irpin. She called my mother and said that now she would go past Tarasivska Street and would be able to take us out. ..." Yandex Maps shows Tarasivska street a bit north of east Yablunska. The 3 areas and basic suggested route are mapped at right.Evgeniy refused to go, Anya reportedly didn't want to go, and their family in general had encouraged them to stay put until there was an agreed "green corridor." Evgeniy explained how their home was unusually safe, but he says "panic and fear worked. My mother wanted to save my sister, so she took this step" and accepted the fatal ride to Irpin. He also says:
"On March 5, I texted Zhanna with the question: "How is my mother?" In response, she wrote a short word: "Norm." And when I called Zhanna's number after lunch, I heard in response: "This number does not exist." My mother's number replied: "At the moment, the caller cannot accept your call.""
It would be handy to have this story lead to this spot on the morning of March 5, and to that tank column already seen there and implicated in other apparently senseless killings. The final message and van location would seem to seal that up. But the connective evidence doesn't seem to reflect that sealing, instead revealing an unexplained gap.
Bucha prosecutors shared with CNN some photos taken mostly on March 5, 6 and 7. One image including the van recently hit, intensely burning like it was hit just minutes ago. Mr. Brovchenko lays dead and Mykhailo Kovalenko pours blood on the pavement, and his car has already been pushed aside. But conveniently enough, they didn't give a specific date for that image.
So we can only assume a date range of the 5th to the 7th, but I've listed them by the official date and implied time, and more follow on the 5th in the same alleged sequence ...
12,13) Two Sisters: NYT month of terror: "On March 5th, a Russian sniper began firing on anything moving south of the high school. ... A retired teacher known as Auntie Lyuda, short for Lyudmyla, was shot midmorning on March 5th as she opened her front door on a small side street. Her body lay twisted, half inside the door, more than a month later." "Her younger sister Nina, who was mentally disabled and lived with her, was dead on the kitchen floor. It was not clear how she died. “They took the territory and were shooting so no one would approach,” a neighbour, Serhiy, said. “Why would you kill a grandma?”"
AFP: "According to her death certificate, Lyudmyla Bochok, 79, was killed by a bullet to the head and the back on March 5. Her body was found lying on the doorstep of her home at 87, Peremogy Street in Bucha." "Bochok's mentally handicapped sister Nina, 74, was found dead in the kitchen: she died of heart failure, according to the death certificate seen by AFP. But her nephew Yevgen Pasternak believes she died of fright, loneliness or hunger, after the Russians executed her sister."
No such address "87, Peremogy Street" exists, per Google or Yandex Maps. The NYT mapping probably equates to #13 on the corner of Peremohy (Peremogy) street and Peremohy lane. A satellite view and distant street view seem consistent, but not verifiable. This is 2 blocks east and one block south of where the tank column was seen, It's just one block east of where a shelled-out tank appeared just before the bridge to Irpin between March 4 and 10 - likely on the 5th but maybe later. It may have been another Russian tank trying to cross, hit by the Ukrainians. It's not likely to be the other way around; the barricades set by Ukrainian forces are moveable, but comparing them, it seems like they probably weren't moved. Also added between 3/4 and 3/10 on the Irpin side right in the path of evacuees, is a badly destroyed civilian car and a mostly-intact male corpse next to it.
I tried some scene analysis from the 4 photos I've found. Outside: a window is broken, several possible marks to both visible walls (from 2 directions, and I can't say which 2), some of them on the obliquely-viewed wall on the left (maybe facing north?) seem to have singed the wall in a way I don't think regular bullets do. Shelling? Less marks appear on the other wall (facing west?). 3 marks are visible on a corner inside the door (a wardrobe?), maybe from bullets at a distance. It could be a shell impacted, and when she came out to inspect, someone shot her. We can't see any marks on Lyudmila's body, but another photo I've seen in clear she lost some blood across the pavement. That photo also shows the interior marks better (inset here).
Inside, kitchen wall - unclear how it relates to the doorway seen above: one possible bullet or fragment mark of the regular type has cipped the wall, one that hit on the wallpaper also burned a ring around it. Nina was found curled up just below these marks, dead of heart attack in a reported coincidence. She could have been hit, but it's not clear why that should be denied.
Something strange about her hands could have a mix of causes including, but not limited to, decay and frostbite and prior medical conditions.
Assuming son-in-law with added affection, the stories track well. Drone videos don't show a mound in the garden, but it might be hidden under trees. There is a mound of earth outside the fence, where the sniper was supposedly at work, but that may be coincidental.
How did Roman get shot? It seems possible he and Ivan were seen as a threat, maybe stepping out to record the Russians' position or even to directly attack them. Calls were placed to Territorial Defense - because they come and help random people, or because they were Roman's secret employers? If so, the family might be quieter about the incident, to avoid drawing attention to it.
15) Mykhailo Romaniuk: UP March 6, archived: Verbatim city council: "The enemy continues to shell houses, cars, kill civilians and even children, ...A significant number of residents are in basements." For example, Yablunska 17 was hit late on the 5th, after the local water tower had been destroyed - fires raged uncontrolled all night, destroying many homes. No injuries or deaths mentioned. (will be covered in another post) But the day's one reported death was reportedly by shooting.
AFP, Death on Yablunska: "On March 6, at 10:30 am," Mykhailo Romaniuk, 58, was accompanying his niece's boyfriend Oleksandr Smagliuk, 21, on a visit to the hospital where Smagliuk's father was just wounded in whoever's shelling of the city. Romaniuk hoped to charge his phone at least, besides offering support. They arrived on Yablunska, seemingly headed west. "Then the shooting started," Smagliuk said. "We didn't see anybody. I didn't realise until the end where the shots came from. I just heard gunfire and saw him fall." He doesn't say where the shots came from, or how he decided that, or why the shooters didn't shoot him too. We hear these Russians were "determined to keep the street clear of all human life."
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