Douma Market Attack: "Assad Bombs" PULLING Children Apart?

Douma Market Attack: Victim Analysis: "Assad Bombs" PULLING Children Apart?
August 27, 2015
(incomplete)
updated (full photo added) March 25, 2016

Assad bombs are PULLING children apart in #Douma and the world is silent! #دوما_تباد

That's not what the tweets say, but between what they show and what they say ... I still can't just slap it out there directly (and I'm even putting the crop of his face lower down). As long as the postings are up, I'll just link to those already sharing it. But ... 

Imagine being shocked by a horrible photograph that probably shows just that implausible scenario.  In Douma, Damascus suburbs, on August 16 - a day when only fighter jet bombing by the Syrian government is blamed for dismembering people, not any government militia massacre - this pre-teen boy had his arms torn off at the elbows, legs nearly torn off at the knees, shoulders damaged, face completely burned, clear through the skin, and ... no other marks, really. And he's got no concrete dust like shelling victims usually have - and which nearly all alleged victims I've seen lack, by the way. Another questionable shelling death (pending - he's being treated in a clinic, so ostensibly still alive).

The Picture, as Presented:

It's given as some part of an August 16 Douma Massacre, unclear. But at the outset, it's possible this image is mis-attributed, and not even from Syria. But I haven't seen it before, no one else I've asked has, and it shares burned face clues with several more established massacre victims (see Burned Faces) He's the worst example by far, if he's even an example of the same thing. The next worst is also a boy. The five men were spared such severity.All this to me says 'chillingly consistent.'

* https://twitter.com/husseinegyptia1/status/632945888017559552
This may be the original, or earliest posting on Twitter.  HusseinEgyptia1, maybe Egyptian. But he and a few others at least insist this was in Douma, Syria. Text translated: # Douma_perish.  Complained to God  # Massacre_Douma #Douma # Syria +18

* https://twitter.com/shmhd1/status/632999110132563968
Text: (Google translated) And those of our children. Do not blame the Syrian Mafl after today !! # Douma_perish
The tag seems to translate to the English version currently buzzing, #Douma_Exterminated - like it's maybe already too late.

(more postings, etc. forthcoming. Actually, I didn't save many ... inviting comment submissions for postings, related material, and thoughts.)

The picture and some screen grabs are saved though in case everyone or Twitter pulls it as the evidence of a horrifying terrorist crime I think it is. There's even little need for most to copy that url and see this sick image, but this is the post for those who do need to see and double-check. It's a subjective call; many rebel supporters, for example, will have no problem shutting down entire lobes of their brain and resting assured "Assad's bombs" did this.

What I Think it Shows:

It shows as apparent teen or pre-teen boy whole, his whole non-intact body minus feet, with underwear on, for decency and PR, but nothing else. This full view reveals: a massively torn apart right knee, just exploded, kneecap, bone, tendons and muscles stretched out a good several inches, all still connected but far out of place. There's a lesser rupture-type wound on the left knee, but both legs are technically there, down to the toes (note: we don't see the feet, or clearly the ankles, as the picture cuts off short. But his left foot wears a white sock, and the right has indistinct bruise-like injuries to the shin)

Both arms are torn off (missing) from  around the elbow, some forearm bone (the thinner one, I think) splaying out on the right side, along with torn tubes and cables, and skin. He also has shoulder and upper chest injuries, kind of along the collarbone (unclear if burns, tears, or what, and mostly blocked from view).

His face is completely burned raw. At right, small res, cropped, blown-up a bit. The burns start right at the edge of his face, like a mask. Was he painted with napalm cream and lit up? Why wouldn't he shield his face with his hands? Oh, yes, they were gone, at some point. Order of operations here is unclear. One would hope it was all done after death, and maybe so, but the medical performance suggests none of it was done after death.

Update, 2016: The tweet having been deleted, I'll make sure the full image is still available and re-post it below, but small.

By appearance, I cannot shake the impression that this boy  was drawn and quartered - pulled apart between two vehicles he was tied to, driving opposite directions. Usually, that doesn't happen, but here ... are there psycho terrorists in the area capable? Or "Shabiha"? It takes good tying and two trucks, plus depravity, and access to the victim.

This kind of killing would have limbs sever violently at the joints. Is that what we see here? Knee, knee, elbow, elbow, and maybe shoulders/collarbone, with the stronger joints (knees, hips, shoulders) just challenged, stretched to near a tearing point. (note: we can't see the state of his hips here, but they might look disjointed/elongated - in fact his whole body seems longer than it should be). After the weakest link is torn through, the pulling stops. So only one set of joints totally gives; here, and maybe normally (who's up on dismemberment studies?) it was the elbows. 

Now really ... however mad this "dictator Bashar Assad" might be (and I suspect it's exaggerated), which of his bombs is going to do all this to a boy, deep inside rebel territory, timed to line up with a new headline-level Assad-massacre marketing campaign? I think this is a big, ugly, smoking gun. It's got potential at demolishing yet another anti-Syria lie.

But ... that alone begs for second opinions. I'll try to critique it myself, but like I said, I can't shake that impression. Maybe I'm too pissed and convinced to think straight right now. Is this how Islamist feel before they set out to join Daesh, al-Nusra, Jaish al-Islam, etc.?

In the War Context
(based on my reading panning out...)

As noted, this image is not widely presented, that I can see yet. That might be for some reason. The few postings I saw were on the 16th and 17th, limited even in Arabic-language channels, and maybe not at all outside of those.

Some Arabic readers are more anti-rational and ready-to-kill than average. There may be a few more on their way to Syria now to help kill Alawites because of this particular photo from the latest "Assad bomb massacre." If so, it's either because they don't get it and they're pissed off idiots, or because they do get it and it seems like a fun time.  It's hard to tell which motive it is in each of tens of thousands of cases, and it hardly matters in the end.  

And this, I think, is about how the Syria recruitment cycle has worked for four years now, driving membership in and upping the brutality of the almost entirely Islamist-oriented multinational forces. Enabled in so many ways, these are still torturing Syria today, four years after "ambassador" (ambassassin?) Robert Ford first denied any armed gangs in Syria. 

And glossing the surface of the process as usual, even without seeing this horrifying photo, folks in suits at the UN instantly expressed "horror" at this and all types of terrorist execution of almost exclusively male victims - over 100 civilians - again and "unacceptably" killed by Assad's fighter jets. A triple-digit number seems to be the magical code, as with the Houla Massacre, now also debunked. 100 dead always equals Assad blame at headline level, and so obviously his bombs did this and anything else, like the four girl victims I've found images for, 3 with hacked open skulls and none looking like shelling victims.

It's hoped this vague and familiar "horror" will finally transform into a Libya style no-fly zone to challenge those unchallenged Assad magic jets, like they did Gaddafi's air force for bombing protesters.

FSA Terrorists are PULLING children apart in #Douma 

and the world is silent! #دوما_مجزرة

---

Of course "the world" is worse than silent, actually. They're calling for another "No Fly Zone" and thus the fulfillment of the Islamist dream - another U.S.-led forced collapse of a national government in the MENA region.

Douma Market Attack: Mapping the Arc of Attack

Douma Market Attack:  Mapping the Arc of Attack
October12/13, 2015
update Jan. 10, 2016

Mapping the Significance of this Mapping (intro)
In the days following the August 16 attack on markets in Douma, Damascus, I set to investigating the details behind the strikes, which allegedly killed over 112 local civilians. One question was where the attacks(s) occurred, which I explained - at first - in a cursory way, not thinking it would matter much.

But since then, the apparent arc of attack emerged from that mapping and became, to me, the central point to start debunking this rebel lie (see one-month investigation review). An arc of attack probably means fixed-location, surface-fired projectiles, radiating out a set distance from the firing spot. In this case, it maps out to about 800 meters south of the impact areas (see below). And further, as far as I can tell, the projectiles were all actually fired from the south.

Rebels, of course, claimed it was a swooping fighter jet that hit these four spots in a rebel-held area. But that would almost surely look different. Its target might happen to lie in an arc pointing south, and it might happen to fire each missile in that pattern while swooping in from the south and no other direction. But the odds are fairly slim when the straight reading points to local rebels shelling their own areas, and when the motive for them to do that is so evident.

Since it matters so much, and no one else has openly mapped the attack, a clear explanation also matters enough to re-trace the process more explicitly. This lets the reader verify as we go, or alternately to get a head start on spotting what - if anything - I did wrong.

For reference, here's my current mapping of the four impacts, with the arc between them - partially wrapping around a firing spot some distance south - is quite clear by now. Area details for each give a preview with more detail below. 

Next I'll explain how these were placed and why it must be right in each case, along with some notes on exact impact point, apparent direction of fire, or other relevant details. That will be in order of discovery, which is also left-to-right as seen from above (as shown above).

Anyone wanting to check the videos I cited, pull up the early video catalog I refer to here.

1) Impact 1: Park Market

This seemed quite locateable - the market scene shown in videos MD1, MD2, MD3, etc. The first two videos start coming from the north, by sunlight (mid-day, coming from roughly south). The effected area is ahead and to the right, and has a red-roofed covered walkway evident at the near corner, with a complex shape from there, a fenced-in park area it wraps around, a divided street to the north, and certain buildings in proportion around it. Here's a still of the northeast corner from MD1, park area to the right at and after the tall palm tree.

First, I tried the Wikipedia shortcut, finding they have only two market areas labeled (in Arabic: سوق, Souq). One - commercial market - has a similar red roof, but not the right shape, lacking a park or right north-side street, and surrounding buildings did not match. Commercial market is irrelevant. The other market (el-Hal) was a clear mismatch for this strike, but is a match for impact 3 - see below.

Scanning different satellite maps, I found only one other likely match in Douma, not labeled but here on Wikimapia. Here everything lined up. This was probably impact 1, strengthened to total certainty by the details of impact 2 (see below). One photo to help, at right (source), facing west down the divider in the street. Impact will be in the left-hand mid-distance.

Direction of fire: The signs say, clearly in this case, that this rocket/missile came from the south. Here's another photo, usefully looking down on the site.

Activists claimed these were fuel-air explosive ("vacuum") missiles, and that seems correct. Center crater can be seen (red circle), with the worst ground damage just behind it (seen from above, oriented north, as in bottom view). The fence ahead is obliterated (or may include existing entry). Wall behind damaged, mainly low. Red roof tiles blown or burned away. The tall palm tree's trunk is smoldering high up, ahead and to the right (green box).

Considering blast damage slopes upward along direction of travel (partly explained below), these signs all say southern origin. Also, the damage area extending into the street seems to be elongated on the north-south axis, meaning that's its direction of travel. A rough measured line (bottom view) seems very close to me, and reads 181.5 degrees, or coming in from just west of due south. This is just about what to expect for an impact in the arc of attack that emerges.

2) Impact 2: Intersection

The videos MD1 and MD2 show both Park Market and the second impact in uncut footage, establishing their relation to each other in space. To the east one block from park market (see MD2, turns left = east) is the next strike at a traffic intersection. The cameraman walks past two minor allies but no streets between sites, so it's just one block. Several vehicles, including a Red Crescent ambulance, were flipped over here, and a smaller building or two were flattened. Videos MD4, MD7, MD10, etc. also show intersection footage. Still from MD10 below, facing west from the middle of the intersection.

Video MD4 (Jabhat al-Nusra stamp) shows a view to the north at 0:14 (still below). Here, the north-running street seems to end, a low building cutting it off about one block north. The map shows just that; the street wiggles around the building. (see graphic below). Other surrounding buildings match up. And as noted videos show this consistent area is consistently one block from another consistent area. The two bolster each other as 99.9% certain, and a core geolocation upon which to base the next two placements.

Exact center of impact: Satellite views suggest taller building (4 stories +) dominate except right at the southwest corner, where lower buildings seem to have existed. Now that corner is rubble, with the tall building all still intact. This gives a narrow area for the impact (blue box in graphic below), but exact spot within it is harder to say. Left-hand view below suggests it was south of that wall damage (orange line), so a bit south of center within that area (green circle).

Purple lines here mark app. real footprints for the taller buildings (roofs are skewed relative to the ground) Orange lines left and right are explained next.

That was one estimate, and bound to be close. Then I saw video MD4 actually shows a likely crater, almost the size of this green circle, but centered just a bit northwest of this, closer to the tall building. At right, a clear still with the apparent crater edges outlined in green. It may be even bigger, continuing to the left, or that may be the edge of it there.

Direction of fire: not clear, but perhaps also from the south. Surrounding building damage: to the left side (left, below) is severe and probably fresh - a line of damage (orange) sloping up to the north. On the right side, the same basic lines, but further out, and only marked by small shrapnel - more likely to be preexisting damage. But either would suggest, like the park market impact, a southern origin. 

Here, see the red line, approximate incoming angle - the blast effect radiates perpendicular from the explosives packed tightly around and moving on that red line. That's why low damage behind sloping up to higher damage ahead is the rule.2:38 in MD1 shows damage ahead, to buildings north of the intersection, with distinct shrapnel-type marks arcing across the third and fourth floors.

Vehicle flipping happened to the north and east of impact, but then, that's where the streets are.  Rubble spread may be mainly to the north. These details could all use more study. 

3) El-Hal Market

(or al-Hal - a general type of (Hallal?) market) El-Hal market on Wikimapiua is a long open area running a bit clockwise from east-west, enclosed on both sides by buildings with awnings. This is consistent with videos - the buildings aren't homes, except maybe at night - they're open-faced, like giant vendor's stalls. Heavy duty carts, scales, trucks are here - unlike park market, this place deals in serious volume of food, most of it seeming to be tomatoes.

Confirming view: (SMART news, video MD13) has this view to the northwest shows an apparent minaret at that corner of the market area (orange box). No minaret is clear in satellite views, but Wikimapia labels a small mosque right there at the corner, next to an extra large tree (green arc). Also note the unique tree "growing through" the awning midway along the north side (green circle). All unique features match.

Impact location: so far I don't see any crater or certain way to get an exact center. However the damage - which appears very minor - seems to start around the center of the south side awning, around the corner marked in red - likely on the smaller section of awning that may now be gone (not clear). A truck near there almost seems to have taken the worst of the damage, being sort of crushed in from all direction ("vacuum missile" pressure wave? Is that what bent the awning so uniformly at the tree?).

Direction of impact: not clear from imagery alone, but perhaps also from the south or south-southwest.  Note the tree trunk on the north side, just along the likely trajectory, is only damaged a bit on the top, trunk and canopy both apparently unburnt. Again, blast damage - or the radial part of a FAE detonation - will angle up based on incoming angle, enough apparently to pass mainly over the tree. Only minor damage can be seen to the buildings behind the treetop, so maybe they too were short enough to escape the worst of it?

Damage to the ground should be expected mainly behind impact, closer to the south side if fired from the south. But nothing is really evident. Perhaps one now-destroyed patch of canopy detonated the blast high up before the spent rocket hit the top of that truck? It would detonate over a short span of travel, between the canopy and the ground. That plus the rising forward angle could explain the lack of damage on the other side even high up.

4) Impact 4: Warehouse (Market?)

Original sources had 3 markets hit and the above list only has two. Quite likely the last will be another market. None labeled, at first no site visuals. Southwest views analysis showed the four plumes lined up so the three on the left correspond to the three above, and strike 4 must be to the east of the others.

The already-evident arc pattern and even spacing suggested the large building just southeast pf El-Hal - massive warehouse, with enclosed lot similar to el-Hal... best guess, pink dot placed, imprecisely, in this version of the evolving map (right). It's not labelled, but would make a good farmer's market, if El-Hal weren't big enough to meet local demand.

Then Petri noticed a matching snippet at 0:30 in this video (MD10 on my list), suggesting this site (see still below) - a massive steel framed building with light roofing torn away, corrugated metal siding and damaged frame members, fire inside being extinguished, one mangled body being recovered at the moment.

The near face, apparently the southeast one by sunlight angle, has giant green doors. Historical images in Google Earth might show these just left of center in the center part of the building, but it's unclear. Note the roof peak here - that would mark a peaked line running northwest, as the satellite views show running across the middle of the building (it's a mild peak, sloping less than the separate roof segments over the north and south ends of the warehouse - see shadows below, clearer in some historical views).

So this rocket hit the building's expansive roof - just where unclear, close to "the middle," perhaps a bit southeast of center. The damage seen above is hard to call - we can see the center peak, but not whether the damage is worse on this side or on the far (north) side of that line. An even 155 meter spread would put it about south of the line, so that's where I put it in the graphic above, but really that point is uncertain.

Review
Reading the Arc

As the final placement story shows, the arc has predictive power, suggesting it's a real pattern that's relevant to this attack, and not some fluke. These are some of the key features of the arc:

- There's an even spread; each impact is approximately 155 meters from the last. These are the measures I got (measuring along each white line, not along the top), again each placement is not exact but accurate to probably a few meters.

- It so happens three different markets (each one being a large target) plus an intersection had enough points that an even arc like that could easily hit all three markets with no fancy variation needed.

- Tracing out the arc into a full circle (below - should maybe be a bit bigger) puts the center of the circle - the implied firing location - approximately 820 meters from each impact (or somewhere inside green circle, probably its southern half, or maybe just outside it, so in the fields most likely)

- Once mapped out like this, I can measure a full 33 degree spread between impacts 1 and 4, or 11 degree turns between each firing. That's not any fancy variation.

- Considering motive and local control, this simple firing was almost surely by someone on the anti-government side. They fired four times in a row on civilian markets in their own area, apparently to cover for the massacre that had just been carried out there (established as happening before the attack) and - pretending this was a Mig fighter jet attack - to launder it as a regime crime. And the pattern makes it clear this was no accident - those were civilian targets, 4 in a row, and that "fighter jet" was quite deliberate in its intent to ... explain a bunch of dead civilians.

Do Rebels Actually Agree With this Mapping?

The usual anti-government activists and local "authorities" told Human Rights Watch (Aug. 20 article) that "the four airstrikes hit the crowded markets, known locally as the al-Hal, al-Houboub, and al-Ghanam markets, at about noon. All three markets are within 500 meters of one another."

That's almost exactly the span of this area of 3 markets and a fourth impact. They trace about 600 meters of their arc, but a straight line east-west from park market to north of impact 4 is just over 500 meters. We're all talking about the same area here. They say a Mig jet hit these four spots, but they didn't map it out (nor did HRW, publicly). But I did, and it virtually proves they lied.

Update, Jan. 10, 2016: I just stumbled upon the SNHR report "Douma Massacre August 2015: Shelling Crowded Markets at Rush Hour" (PDF direct link, download page). This is an opposition propaganda group far less trustworthy even than the SOHR, seeming in fact to be one of the original two competing SOHRs from the early days. But in this case, I could almost have skipped al that work, just cited their map, and be correct. Here's the segment:

Other than the last one, they map it about the same as I did, and just don't care about or realize the implications. The second impact is also a bit different here - rounded off to at the intersection, but on the right corner anyway. My placement a bit south of there is more accurate and clarifies the arc. The last hit they're clearly wrong about - it smashed through the roof of that building, just like the arc predicts. "Park market" here is sheep market. I don't see where the sheep were supposed to be, nor any sheep. The one they got wrong, #4, seems a best fit for selling livestock, right?    

Follow-Up

Human Rights Watch (Human Wrongs Whitewash?), hearing about the clustered impact areas but not having mapped them (or did they?) - called for an arms embargo on Syria, along with dropping hints that a Bosnia-or-Libya-style air war might help stop the suffering.  I've alerted HRW's Nadim Houry at least: "would HRW endorse arms embargo on Syria over a rebel false-flag rocket attack from 800 m? Why should words trump science?" (tweet 1 tweet 2) And also the SOHR who reported this "official massacre" by jet, only to be proven wrong: "Alert: as you may know, your remaining activists in #Douma are no longer credible." (tweet). No response from either. No retractions and no counter-arguments are expected.

Douma Market Attack: Precedents

Douma Market Attack: Precedents
September 7, 2015
(cleanup and completed, October 14)

Peter Bouckaert, "Emergencies Director" for Human Rights Watch wrote on August 20 Douma: Syria’s horrors need the world’s attention. This was released the same day HRW called for an arms embargo on the Syrian government over the attack (that's part of of what Bouckaert means by "attention"). I have been paying more attention than most and still see no reason to think a jet was involved; the physical evidence is fairly consistent with that, or a number of other things, but there's no video or photo of the jet or contrail, no radar track, no consistent missile remains specified, and for some reason there's even vagueness about the attack time.

And this is looking worse and worse compared to increasing reasons to see instead a laundered terrorist massacre of almost entirely male captives. I recently published what might be a smoking gun proving that rebels just laundered another of their massacres; the inset photo of around 40 gathered bodies was taken just minutes after the August 16 missile/rocket attack, meaning at least this big portion of the victims were dead well before the alleged cause existed. A critic on Twitter chided me and "Syricide" (who re-tweeted me on it) so: "Peddling any conspiracy theory that exonerates #Assad and his loyalists no matter how far fetched. Classic." I replied well; "Lol, "Far fetched" Far from what activists said, fetched by photo proof." 

That may have been a bit strong to say, "proof" - it's still being analyzed, pending certainty we've actually read it right. But in the meantime, I had promised an article on the rich if under-appreciated history of precedents for this being a false-flag provocation or even worse. Here it finally is, for those having a hard time seeing how near-fetched such a thing really would be, in two parts: Sarajevo (1992-1995) and Syria (2011 to present)

Sarajevo

First, lest reach back and fetch a far example, decades old, but cited by those blaming the Syrian government and by those questioning that blame. HRW's Peter Bouckaert, in his "Syria's horror" thing cited above, pointed a solid precedent for such a government-sponsored atrocity that was dealt with adequately and serves as a model here.

Almost exactly 20 years ago, a similarly brutal bombing of a marketplace during the Bosnian war changed the course of that conflict. On 28 August, 1995, during its siege of the city of Sarajevo, forces of the breakaway Republika Srpska fired 5 mortar shells into the Markale market, killing 43 and wounding 75.

The horror and outrage generated by that attack - the second on the Markale market, following a 5 February, 1994 strike that killed 68 - unified much of the international community into action.

He cited eventual prosecution of Serbian officers as supporting evidence for their guilt, but failed to mention there was a serious air war along the way to that. NATO air strikes of 1995, per the Wikipedia article, "struck 338 Bosnian Serb targets, many of which were destroyed" in a one-month campaign starting on August 30. The planners of "Operation Deliberate Force" clearly did not deliberate very long before they had bombs falling two days after the provocation at Markale market. This international action would eventually force an end of the war, on terms favoring the ethnic Albanian separatists (from Yugoslavia) over the "breakaway" Republika Srpska (favoring the preservation of Yugoslavia).  "Sadly," Bouckaert concludes, "it seems unlikely that the horror of the latest market attack in Douma will bring about any effective international response" of the kind seen in 1995. 

In case it matters, and it wasn't mentioned by Bouckaert, the Wikipedia page for Markale massacres points out while first analysis was clear in blaming the Serbs, "a later and more in-depth UNPROFOR report noted a calculation error in the original findings. With the error corrected, the United Nations concluded that it was impossible to determine which side had fired the shell." Well, then how did the UN, the Hague's jurists, and others decide, then and now, who it was? Apparently they picked the side with the anti-motive, the side who lost the ensuing air war their third suicide attempt (see below) finally triggered. This is a preview how any Syria war crimes trials will be run, and this Douma attack, a plain as day "official massacre," is likely to be included.

Aftermath of one the Markale attacks, from Lewis report

I just now heard of crime writer Robert Lewis, who shared his informed thoughts about the Douma allegations on August 28, the 20-year anniversary of the last Markale bombing.

The story reminded me that despite the fact markets have no [military] value, they’re bombed all the time.  ... [almost entirely] the victims have been Muslim (I have started to compile a spreadsheet). These bombings occur with incredible frequency, and an astonishing number of them are never claimed by any terrorist group. Isn’t that bizarre? It suggests a strategy of tension, or perhaps several of them. Certainly it warrants further study.

Of course, many of them are blamed on non-terrorist state actors, being branded as terrorists, but always uselessly denying the accusations, so no terrorist admission should be expected. Lewis focuses on Markale, adding a less-known attack there in 1992 for a total of three before war was finally sparked. He notes that:

"On each occasion there was ambiguity about whether the Bosnian Serbs were actually responsible. General Michael Rose believed the shells actually came from the Bosnian side. Multiple sources (such as Michael Rose, David Owen, Boutros Boutros Ghali, President Mitterand, and Yasushi Akashi, the UN Special Envoy for Bosnia) refer to a secret UN investigation which found exactly that. A second, non-secret UN report (the one intended for publication) confined itself to saying the attack could not be confidently attributed to any particular faction.

I have visited the market in Sarajevo. An arc of attack was not apparent. Sightlines were few and very narrow. It would take exceptional skill, I think, to accurately and reliably hit it with the groupings and timings we are asked to believe in. I do not seek to exonerate the Bosnian Serbs, who seem to have sniped and shelled Sarajevo at will, but the mortar attacks in question reveal what you might call a tradition of unattributed, misreported, propagandistic attacks on Muslim markets. And the CIA and the Saudi-funded Islamists were present then just as they are today.

Oct. 14 note on "arc of attack." He didn't see in Markale one to point one way or the other, but this is one precedent that doesn't carry over to the Douma market attack. In that case there's an arc, which points to ground artillery to the south, not to a fighter jet above at different angles. A rebel lie about rockets fired from a rebel area doubly points to rebels and false-flag. This case becomes a precedent for understanding the others, as well as vice-versa. See mapping the arc of attack.

Furthermore, the 1994 and 1995 Sarajevo attacks and the credulous response came after time to reflect on earlier discredited accusations, rebel false-flag attacks back in 1992, perhaps including the early Markale attack. As the UK Independent reported at the time:

United Nations officials and senior Western military officers believe some of the worst recent killings in Sarajevo, including the massacre of at least 16 people in a bread queue, were carried out by the city's mainly Muslim defenders - not Serb besiegers - as a propaganda ploy to win world sympathy and military intervention.

The view has been expressed in confidential reports circulating at UN headquarters in New York, and in classified briefings to US policymakers in Washington." 

Even those leaking these classified details are quick to de-emphasize such events as irrelevant flukes: "The officials were anxious to point out that they were not trying to exonerate the Serbs, who have been besieging Sarajevo for months, killing unknown numbers of townspeople, as well as carrying out 'ethnic cleansing' around the city and elsewhere in Bosnia." So this is an at-least kind of list by people interested in blaming the Serb side, among a barrage of false-flag attacks, discarding the worst fakes and keeping the rest as a deciding majority. But among those they were forced to reject, besides the bread line attack:

* "UN officials also believe the bullet which killed the American television producer David Kaplan near Sarajevo airport on 13 August was probably not fired by a sniper from distant Serbian positions. 'That would have been impossible,' one UN military officer said. 'That shot came in horizontal to the ground. Somebody was down at ground level.'"

* "UN officials also say a Ukrainian soldier shot in the head and heart at Sarajevo's Marshal Tito barracks on Thursday was killed by 'small arms fire' - by implication the Bosnians."

I've bumped into signs of a false-flag mosque-bombing suspect, a PFLP-GC member apparently active in Bosnia in May 1992, called "Abu Elias." He may also have been involved - centrally - in the 1988 Lockerbie bombing, and was last known to be living in Virginia with a US government engineering job, under an odd pseudonym (Basel Bushnaq, in Arabic: brave Bosnian) (see here).

Syria

Examples to the Syria conflict will be more immediately relevant. There have been numerous reported government-ordered attacks on bread lines, public markets, and the like. I've only looked at a few of these and the details were generally hard to call with certainty - tension/provocation seem most likely in general, but I'm talking about supporting evidence, not starting hunches. So no clear lessons pop to mind (but later, some records analysis was added at this post), but a few other cases with common features are worth considering.

Non-Jet Jet Attack on Civilians: Aleppo University, Jan., 2013

Blast crater at Aleppo University, facing E-SE

The Douma claims are quite similar to the alleged fighter jet attack on Aleppo University, activists were clear a fighter jet fired a missile at the school of architecture on January 15 during exams, swooped around and fired again, killing dozens of students at "the University of the Revolution," as pro-revolution people called it. Unlike this case that did feature jet evidence to back up the claims - a vapor trail shown on video, but looking more rocket-oriented) On closer inspection that attack had no jet; the forensics (lack of jet indicators in video of the attack, size of blast and severity of damage, and - I think - the apparent direction of fire) favor the government's story: terrorists had fired two powerful surface rockets from the north-northwest.

The brunt of the attack was taken not by students but by a tent camp for displaced people outside the dormitories packed with other people displaced from their homes by fighting or rebel occupation (see ACLOS page, talk page, and un-developed physical evidence page). A later report gives a final figure of over 90 people killed besides the hundreds wounded, again mainly IDPs, and then 15 students were killed in a further attack on March 28.

* 100+ dead as magic number: Houla Massacre, May, 2012, Hama July 2011, etc.

We may all still remember the furor in May/June 2012 over Assad's brutl Houla Massacre, where Army shelling enabled a Shabiha invasion of a Sunni rebel village, where they massacred 108 random Sunni civilians, almost half of them children. It was an unprecedented scale of child-killing that was totally blamed on "Assad" and sparked an unprecedented wave of diplomatic warfare and greater support to the rebels.

But the fact is it was rebel shelling and Salafist terrorist massacre against targeted families in the last government-held part of the Houla region, immediately after they finally overran the remaining security posts there, as the video record actually shows. I know what the UN investigation found, and I can show where they went wrong. Well-read video evidence trumps their sloppy hodge-podge of reasoning any day. As for the victims, those whose stories agree with the video evidence say the victims were mainly former Sunnis who converted to Shi'ism, and others who remained Sunni but supported the government.

But it's the number that I cited it for. That third digit makes a world of difference in how the world reacts. Consider July 31, 2011, the first day in the campaign when just over 100 people died in one place on one day. Turns out there was a rebel offensive that day and a quarter of the dead were security forces, some slaughtered and dumped in the river. The rest; 87 ostensibly civilian men, were unclear. The world denounced "Assad's" brutality against the unarmed protesters, and dismissed his lies about them being armed terrorists.

Unlike that, the Houla Massacre famously involved women and especially children murdered on a horrific scale. And consider the first triple-digit massacre of "entire families" that "Assad" convincingly pulled off...

* Triple Digit Deaths + Female-Sparing Bombs; Khalidiya, Feb. 2012

Activists said regime shelling on a rebel-held area destroyed 20+ homes overnight Feb. 3/4, killing whole families in a main, first-reported batch of 138 people. But these, by opposition lists, were 130 men and 8 boys, many with odd injuries to the throat. A smaller number of more mixed victims were counted later, including about 8 women and 4 girls, making the final tally only about 90% adult male. (see ACLOS page)

That's strikingly similar to the Douma market attack death toll - not quite as all-man as it first seemed, but almost. It's suspicious, suggesting some kind of unnatural gender segregation. After the Khalidiya massacre, state media aired locals speaking of a terrorist assault on police stations the same day, and some of whom claimed they recognized the "Shelling" victims on rebel videos as family or neighbors who had been kidnapped. Such claims are consistent by these unverified details from a John Rosenthall report:, citing Mother Agnes-Mariam:

According to an account published in French on the monastery’s website, rebels gathered Christian and Alawi hostages in a building in Khalidiya and blew up the building with dynamite. They then attributed the crime to the regular Syrian army. “Even though this act has been attributed to regular army forces ... the evidence and testimony are irrefutable: It was an operation undertaken by armed groups affiliated with the opposition,” Mother Agnès-Mariam wrote.

In my experience/opinion, this source deserves the nickname Mother Agnes of the Mixed Reliability. Such reports are usually based on real claims, but the claims aren't always true. Nor are they always false, nor that there was ever a case that was totally certain anyway. The claims in this case seem well-worth considering, and quite possibly relevant to the apparent 2015 massacre in Douma of 100+ men and a few others, that was hidden under dubious fighter jet claims.

Regime Massacre Victims, Killed by Rebels: Douma, August, 2012

victim of Aug. 16 massacre, opp. video

(see Douma Hostage Massacre page at ACLOS ) - perhaps an even better anniversary point for the Douma allegations, it was around August 17, 3 years earlier, when rebels found 16 local men kidnapped by Assad-loyalist thugs and recently killed by slicing their throats - likely on August 16, which could make the market attack a sort of anniversary homage to this earlier crime. 

But 6 of those same men were already shown, and clearly, on a FSA rebel unit's recent video as government loyalists they had captured and were threatening to kill. It was an obvious case of terrorists fobbing off their own massacre. And it happened in Douma, back in 2012, before it became as overwhelmingly Islamist-friendly as it is today (pro "army of Islam" activists say the regime killed civilians at the market because all of Douma loves "Army of Islam" who were also winning battles, by the way). Back then, neighboring Harasta seemed to be leading the way, with Douma dragging its feet. The death squad responsible for this massacre was based there.

There's no such proof I know of for the Douma market victims being slaughtered in that manner. From the few dozen I've seen, most are not throat-cutting victims. But some cases are unclear or even suspicious. Consider Akram Seroul, as given - it's him, an alleged fighter jet victim of August 16, shown above (I was being tricky! It's leading, but just for effect!).

Fighter Jet Kills People in Market: Ariha, Idlib, Aug.3, 2015
Here's a bizarre precedent speaking to fighter jets bombing markets on Assad's order and, in this case, crashing the jet into it deliberately to kill more, in an expensive new way to argue for a "no fly zone." Over 30 civilians, mostly men, were listed as killed. (expanded into this article for more details).

Getty Images/Anadolu Agency has a photo to prove that this time a jet was over the market and thus might have hit it; some flag-marked jet wreckage, next to melons. It looks arguably natural how it came together, but ... to me, the metal appears to be quite weathered, having spent some time in its crumpled state. If it was shot down long ago and had wreckage dripped here to prove jet-on-market action ... what does that say about later alleged jet-on-market attacks?

Douma Market Attack {Masterlist}

August 20, 2015
(incomplete)
last updates October 14

The August 16 alleged fighter jet attack on a crowded market in Douma, Damascus, was instantly and widely decried by world leaders and concerned people everywhere as an obvious war crime by the government. Of course, the alleged part is never considered fairly in these reflexive yelps. No one among them has considered the details realistically or wants to.

Part 1: Initial Questions - what proof is there it really was a jet? Why are at least 100 of the 112 or so reported victims listed as adult males? Why were at least 95 of the dead unclaimed for usual family burial, and interred in anonymous-style mass graves instead?

See also: A Closer Look On Syria research wiki: Douma Market Attack - Talk:Douma Market Attack (ACLOS pages remain somewhat under-developed but getting more useful)

September 18 update: The parts that get better, usually, is where we get specific, especially with the visual evidence. Where it stands one month after the attack: pretty solid.  

One-Month Investigation Review 

Oct. 13: one crucial point covered in the review but then expanded here is the "arc of attack" (all 4 impacts mapped to app. firing spot, at right) essentially proving local rebels firing rockets, and not a government jet, was behind this attack.

Below is some of the (starting) work going into this, to be expanded past that as well.

Video Overview

Big video list by content and victim analysis are linked but external - at this post some detailed  locations established, some thoughts explored here, some more important ones just summarized with links to the posts where they get more detail.

Or Video Catalog for just the list.

Victim Analysis

Victim lists linked, a list of 35 victim ID videos, some analysis and, with limited input from others, so far, I've discovered some complications to the all-man argument (that still seems valid, just complicated, with issues that raise their own troubling questions.

At least these points so far are worth their own sub-posts: 

- Victims Dead Before the Attack? Comparing a vague reported time to more reliable evidence suggests an attack around between 1:00 and 1:26 PM local time, or as they say "about noon." So how on earth could 40+ bodies of men and boys, already dry, be gathered from that attack by about 1:15 (or 1:00-1:30), as a photograph shows? They can't. So why did activists claim they did? And how really did they die?

-  A drawn-and-quartered boy? "Assad bombs" PULLING children apart in Douma?

- Head-hacked girls? One very clear case, others less clear, but they aren't shelling victims.  Someone executed them.

- Men and boys with burned faces, with boys getting it worst.

Part 2: Precedents to consider - partly worked into the above, a short custom list is needed, and should be handy already, but had to wait (finally added Sept. 7 - historical precedents, Sarajevo, then Syiria) (stopped doing numbered "parts" before part 3.

Other Market Attacks More specific precedents; General research on similar alleged market-oriented attacks in the Syria conflict. Similar and suspect patterns emerge.

Douma Market Attack: Victims Dead Before the Attack?

Douma Market Attack: Victims Dead Before the Attack?
September 5, 2015
last edits Sept. 27

Note, Sept. 23: The following article relates the findings as they were at writing and for a short time after. I've questioned the findings below on photo time, in a continuing technical discussion here, and we've gone back and forth a bit, with real math entering the picture now. An updates section at the bottom will offer more refined time estimates and implications. Also the comparison time of attack estimate may have updates, which I'll add at bottom as well.

The Telltale Photo

This is a Syrian Civil Defense photo, posted at 2:52 PM here and, perhaps the first posting, the well-connected Douma Revolution channel ran it at 2:23. Corpse collection site 1: Men and boys, dirt floor (mosque?) courtyard, unwrapped then wrapped - canopy cover, west or southwest wall is blue screen or tarp, not a true wall. No gate at the corner. Considering 6 photos of this scene at different times (inset), there are at least 24 (probably 25+) bodies in the nearer row, and eventually at least 17 in the back row. So at least 41 total corpses are gathered here, likely the same 45+ seen wrapped in another similar courtyard (site 2, tile floor) a bit later. Here, five are clearly boys (considered here), and  others might be. 

This seems to be the earliest photo, or among the earliest set of photos, of this corpse array. And this point there are perhaps the full 41 already assembled (not totally clear, but nearly all of them anyway) They're laid on a UNHCR tarp.

My first notes, modified a bit: 

1) The bodies don't seem to display rigor mortis, which means they either died less than 2 hour ago, or about a day ago.  

2) The blood on them all seem fairly dry. No one's pouring blood, and only the worst injuries seem to be smearing at all.

3) There are at least 41 bodies, just of men and boys, who already died from their injuries, stopped bleeding, and got fairly dry by the time of this photo, which we'll come back to as a crucial point.

4) The injuries they supposedly just died from are generally unclear. At least one has a missing leg, one a nasty chest wound, at least two have fatal-seeming head wounds, others are unclear and some are covered up. But dozens of men and boys are seen, appearing totally intact,
5) They're somewhat smoky but not dusty. There was no rubble really to pull them from in this attack, and no indication they were under any. Quick gathering could happen of victims hit by bomb shrapnel in the open. But on this scale? They mostly show some combination of peppered and ripped-up a bit, bleeding from random spots, which is consistent. If as they say 300+ other men were wounded but lived, along with 200+ boys, it just means the areas were super-packed with males. Apparently this many were just hit precisely in some fatal areas (like execution victims are, by the way).

6) Pants are torn a lot with both the men and the boys, with entire legs missing perhaps more commonly than usual. With the men but not the boys, belts get undone and pants get pulled halfway down or go missing more often than not. This can happen by accident, or be a sign of disrespect for the dead. (that is, it might suggest these were people the rebels disliked, government loyalist or non-Sunni families)

7) Again, this is a segregated scene, but in all other scenes and records, there's still no sign of any more than 3 women and about that many girls killed, to what seems about a dozen boys and about a hundred men. Were the females spared the way bomb victims sometimes are, randomly? Or were they "spared" the way Islamist war booty sometimes is?

The main point for the rest of this point is what I think might be a smoking gun as to who's behind this massive crime. The bodies of dozens of male victims were gathered too early to be victims of the market blasts as alleged; they must have been killed before those blasts, and the story connecting them to it was concocted to conceal the truth. To the extent the analysis below pans out, this finding would underline all the more speculative points above, besides the others already noted (the bulk disposal of their bodies in mass graves, the signs that some were face-burned and/or tortured rather than bombed, etc.)  

This bold claim comes from deciding on two times and then comparing them. Neither time is set exactly or with certainty yet. But the ranges are clear enough, I think, that we can safely call a mismatch - and far from the first one - between what "activists say" and what their own visual record proves. I hope to firm this up in time - whether it's in favor of more or less certainty, we shall see,

Attack Time

Media Reports

The opposition story laundered by Western media and "humanitarian" sources is quite clear the attack was by a Syrian fighter jet. But they provided no kind of independent evidence (video, etc.) and couldn't even get a remotely exact attack time.

Human Rights Watch was told by a mix of activists and Douma local authorities, as their appeal for an arms embargo on Syria explained, "the four airstrikes hit the crowded markets ... at about noon." No specific time is cited. Others say vague things like mid-day. A later HRW report gives "the busy midday period," and AP reported "during rush hour." Syria Deeply cites "Hassan Taqi al-Din, a local media activist and Douma resident," who says he witnessed the attack and told them “It started at about noon..." 

All of that is suspiciously vague. We might now have a reason for that.

Visual Reading

A clear and reliable visual time would be the one good measure, but that's still a little unclear. This has now been expanded into southwest views analysis. 

Brief summary: I've got a massive but blurred smoke plume seen probably around 2 PM or later and, at some earlier point it was four smaller plumes, like they say, from 4 blasts, (inset). That's harder to time, but from a similar view, decisive analysis pending. Sunlight is from almost behind the camera in both cases, as they face northeast towards Mount Snir (the sharper peak in both images) A working range for this photo is broadly 1:10-1:45 PM.

Even with a time for either image, I'm not sure yet how to say how long before that the attack happened. How long does it take plumes of this or that size to form? We could estimate, roughly, an attack between 12:50 and 1:30.

So this isn't clarified yet, but seems consistent in pointing to something about an hour off, and likely more, from literal noon. "About noon" would still be accurate, perhaps, but not very precise. It didn't sound precise anyway, did it? But it was an imprecision it seems everyone agreed on. Odd, that.

Social Media

Another way to get an idea is to see when people started talking about it, in a forum with lots of talking that moves quickly. Does it start at more like 12 or 1? I picked a few well-informed Twitter accounts to see when they first alerted their readers to news of the attack. Perhaps the best source would be DoumaRevolution, almost an official source it seems, and based in Douma, presumably. (All other related Douma accounts I checked posted nothing that day, having ceased all posting a while back - this is the active one).

These and the below are mainly auto-translations, times given as local - Twitter's California time plus 10 hours (or shift AM to PM and subtract 2). 

1:27 PM was their first news: 'Urgent ::  #Douma  coordination :: huge explosions rocking the city, together with constant overflights of warplanes in the sky ... ' They had an update at 1:28 and by 1:42 they knew "MiG flight now in Sky of Douma after targeting crowded city markets...' By 1:58 'dozens of martyrs and wounded hundreds in a new massacre committed by gang crime Asadi in the market ...' At 2:04 'more than 200 wounded and 35 martyrs...'  first video shared at 2:19 and at 2:23 they knew of 'more than 55 dead...' Also at 2:23 the dead men and boys photo from above has its first posting here, (maybe anywhere?). At 2:36 they show a photo of market damage after the wounded were removed and the smoke cleared.

They said nothing about this loud and obvious attack before 1:27. But maybe others had their own sources going back earlier? I can't say for sure, but all these I checked only come on board slower than that, not faster. LccSy (Local Coordinating Committees) only broke the news at 1:58 of 'scores between martyrs and injuries...' UK-based syriahr (SOHR) first reported at 2:26 on 'the martyrdom and wounding of dozens more ...' SyriaCivilDef  ("White Helmets") broke the news to their followers only at 2:52, and Shaamnews only reported it at 3:23.

So far I see no sign of the attack in anyone's awareness prior to 1:27. Let's say there may have been a moderate delay, or not, and keep it broad: this suggests an attack anywhere from 1:00-1:25 PM. That lines up fairly well with what the video, so far, seems to say. And in doing so, again, it softly contradicts the vague "around noon" claim from opposition sources.

Bodies Gathered By Then!?!

So again, when was the photo above taken? No later than first posting at 2:23 is pretty vague, when there's sunlight in it showing - to the right reading - exactly what time it was. To start, we don't have a location or wall orientation yet (but this right wall must face roughly south, probably a bit southeast). Compass direction to the sun - solar azimuth - is the best way to get time, but without exact place details it can't be done.

The vertical angle, however, could be measured. Just on the surface we can see it's notably steep; this is mid-day sun, fairly close to solar noon. Vaguely then, it's at the same time as the attack, per rebel sources. And considering the above, this could even be before that later-than-implied attack. 

But that's vague. Let's move forward a bit.

To be clear, I'm not certain I know how to read the three-dimensional angle of sunlight hitting walls seen at this angle to determine the sun's elevation. A straight reading of a line painted on the photo, rotated 5 degrees from the photo's rotation, first seemed to say 67 degrees. That would equate with approximately 1:30 PM. 

I asked Petri Krohn, who's at least more technically adept, if not a true expert either, and he weighed in with better tools reaching a quite similar finding (see here). Measuring from the blue cooler he found an elevation of 68.77 degrees explained it. The correlating time for that is 1:12:30 PM!

We can see how less than 2 degrees difference equals 18 minutes time difference, so it's not good to be too exact with this just yet. But I looked again and decided, depending on the real angular calculations, 67, 70, and a few other angles seem possible, but I agreed 68-69 degrees is the best range. This gives a fairly narrow time range of 1:09-1:20 PM, or more broadly we could say 1:00-1:30.

Again, it's alleged missiles hit "around noon," caused damage to the bodies of these and other civilians, and then these died, some instantly, some of them after struggling for some moments. We can presume they were pronounced dead, their bodies gathered from however many locations, and brought here (location still unknown), and we can see they stopped bleeding much and became fairly dry. All of that allegedly happened after the first missile impact, but before the time of this photo.

The best attack time estimate of 1:00-1:25, plus this best-yet photo reading means the photo was taken anywhere from 25 minutes before the rockets hit to 30 minutes after. I think we can rule out anytime before - what would the photographer be thinking with no news to explain such a spread?  It should look troubling enough just with such quick gathering from the attack minutes ago. There's clearly no way these can be victims of those blasts with anything like the above process unfolding, in 30 minutes or less. They must have died earlier, from something else, which their rebel handlers don't want to tell us the truth about.

But here they would have bodies and cover story lined up perfectly ... if nearly simultaneous were perfect. But it's not. Is this a lack of "local coordination" or too much of it?

Considering points 1 and 2 above about the lack of bleeding, moist blood, or rigor mortis, the victims might well have been murdered not just earlier in the day but sometime the day before. Even more clearly, that could hardly be an honest mix-up.

This time reading also suggests the photo was held back before publication, it seems, for just about one hour (earliest found posting is 2:23). That might show worry about the image, and it might be the same worry shown by the man in the crop of it at right. Considering the situation, he could well be thinking "Oh crap, they're taking pictures already? Our rockets just hit and we haven't even announced the jet attack yet. This could go poorly." Much to their surprise, perhaps, the captured sunlight still looks the same even after a delay in releasing it.


Post-Writing Updates
September 9:   (see technical discussion). I think due consideration of shadow angles puts the photo time range about 20-25 minutes later than I thought. I may have overdone the correction, but I think considering all the details, still a photo no later than 2:00 and maybe earlier than 1:30 is still far too soon after a 1:10-1:25 attack for this photo to make the kind of sense alleged.

September 15: I overdid the correction. The best answer, now at the same link and noted below, close to my first guess and keeps the point strong. As explained here, the best method was this: both outer walls cut apart and skewed to equal proportions - a square of width of one panel and one pilaster was marked, with relevant ground lines (edges of cooler and of shadow) drawn across from the right spots along each side of the grid - the rectangle of shadow angle was then measured at its true (app.) proportions, and the slant across it couple with clloer height was found to yield an elevation of 66.25 degrees, and a time of 1:36:30 PM. There's little room for exactitude here, so a fair range might be 1:30-1:45. That's between 5 and maybe 45 minutes after the attack.

September 23/24: Petri Krohn offers a placement for the body collection point - for both this dirt floor scene and the later tile-floor scene. This is as I map it below, and helps consider transport time., It's not a major factor (a few hundred meters to one km, up major streets). Dying and drying time is what seems to be lacking.

 Although these images aren't clear on the point, there's also an east gate in this area, but I suspect IF bodies were brought in and not killed on-site ... it could easily be by either gate. The van shown above either came from the east, or backed into this spot. It doesn't matter except to suggest where they came from - in this case, likely not from the direction of the rocket attacks.

A location allows an azimuth reading (compass direction to the sun). Using my ground grid for the above reading, the angle of shadow gives an azimuth 201.5 and so an earlier time of just about 1:10 PM. It's not exact either and seems early, but done right azimuth is far better than an altitude reading. Then I noticed the shadow I've been measuring going back a bit further, which points later (than 1:10). At the moment I say best guess is azimuth 207 = about 1:18-1:19 (or range 1:12-1:25). And I still suppose the photo is taken after the blasts and news of attack, but ... it can't be very much after. By the unrevised broad estimate range 1:00-1:25, this is anywhere from 13 minutes before the attack to maybe, in a stretch, 25 minutes after.

September 27: However, ACLOS member Pmr9 offers a start at proper algebraic calculations between camera plane and horizon and the scene, but using different shadows, that may point earlier yet. His latest revision puts the time of the photo at about 12:55-1:00. I can't (easily) vouch for that - it seems reasonable, but...