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Showing posts with label propaganda. Show all posts
Showing posts with label propaganda. Show all posts

Monday, January 22, 2024

Words Without Truth: How the New York Times Helped Netanyahu Weaponize Sexual Violence Allegations Against the People of Gaza

October 7 Massacre in Israel, part 7: Words Without Truth

How the New York Times Helped Netanyahu Weaponize Sexual Violence Allegations Against the People of Gaza

January 22, 2024

1) A Propaganda & Genocide Assist from the NYT? 

This post will review the New York Times' December 28 article "‘Screams Without Words’: How Hamas Weaponized Sexual Violence on Oct. 7." By Jeffrey Gettleman, Anat Schwartz and Adam Sella, New York Times, December 28, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/28/world/middleeast/oct-7-attacks-hamas-israel-sexual-violence.html

I've been incredibly slow to decide this was worth finishing and then to assemble it even this well. I was originally content to leave it with the great works of Max Blumenthal and the Gray Zone, among others. But now I'll just start there; with some double-checking and other research of my own, some points and thoughts came up that I think improve the record. So this is a worthwhile read, if I've boiled it down well enough for you.

As the report's opening summary says "A two-month investigation by The Times uncovered painful new details, establishing that the attacks against women were not isolated events but part of a broader pattern of gender-based violence on Oct. 7." This seems to confirm Israeli officials who "say that everywhere Hamas terrorists struck — the rave, the military bases along the Gaza border and the kibbutzim — they brutalized women,"

First of all, even if every claim in this article were true, that would not provide any legitimate legal reason for Israel's current or planned genocide program(s) in Gaza or anywhere else (and it classes as genocide by at least some relevant definitions). The radical Netanyahu government and apparently the majority of Israel's populace seem to feel that the mass rape DOES explain their trajectory just fine; only the details of Hamas' alleged violence need to be considered in deciding the fate of Gaza and its 2 million inhabitants, because international law doesn't apply to Israel, as THE aggrieved victims of a brand new "Holocaust." 

Now that the Jewish state has been provoked ... should they kill some or all of Gaza's people, using bombs, hunger, thirst and disease, or maybe with a nuke, as some inside and outside the government have argued? Or should they simply threaten these in combination as the alternative to a massive "voluntary relocation?" Both notions are floated openly, with expulsion taken as the "logical" and "humane" option. Officially, no such genocide or ethnic cleansing is planned, but the "war" Israel has waged so far leaves these paths wide open by making Gaza essentially a living hell. 

Do Israeli settlements in Gaza return and then expand? Should they just settle the whole strip, and/or shorten the route of their hoped-for Ben Gurion Canal, running it right through Gaza? (see Eurasia Review) Do they take the West Bank too? Then on to the East Bank, into Lebanon, Syria and everything else "God promised them" long ago? It's all in happy discussion, after it was "proven" that - in particular - Israeli babies were beheaded and Israeli women were raped in the genocidal Palestinian incursion of October 7. (it does also count by SOME definitions, but Israelis insist if any one party is guilty of genocide - and they assume just one party CAN be guilty - then it must be Hamas, who they say DELIBERATELY killed babies, and who raped women.)

So the allegations offer no legal justification, but they drive Israelis anyway, and for the rest of us, the truth matters in its own ways. The main question we'll consider here is if the mass rape claims are true, at least judging by the provided evidence. The way it's piled up in the Times report, Hamas mass rape can seem pretty conclusive. But after sorting and considering ... the lodged claims have always been curiously short on supporting evidence, are often dubious or implausible, frequently change over time, and whenever there are enough specifics to compare with other evidence, the rape stories tend to clash with it, and to lose that clash. 

It remains all but impossible to prove a negative, like "rape did NOT happen," but the provided evidence FOR it has been seen to fail. So it seems likely the published stories were partly or entirely invented, probably in order to give Israel its supposed blank check for genocide and ethnic cleansing. This kind of allegation is akin to the "blood libel" long directed at Jews - incitement to communal hatred and perhaps to genocide. Those found guilty of such fabrications to fuel Nazi aggression and the Holocaust were certainly not tolerated by the civilized world, and found guilty of the crimes they encouraged and concealed (see the case of Hans Fritzsche). 

The Israelis would surely know what they're doing spreading such tales against the Palestinians as they set about re-writing Gaza's future. And Gettleman, Schwartz and Sella at the Times likely know what they're doing in assisting this effort, apparently having avoided any kind of second-checking or scrutiny as they essentially megaphoned Tel Aviv's hateful propaganda. 

Maybe they had a lucky break, journalistically, and the claims wound up being true anyway. Let's have a detailed check how likely that is.

2) Evidence Overview: No Medical, No Video - Just Words 

The Times heard from a government official about three women and one man who survived Hamas rape and were in counseling, but “None of them has been willing to come physically for treatment,” let alone to tell their story. After serious inducements to come forward with any story, true or false, this is all they even claim to have. 

Orit Sulitzeanu, executive director of the Association of Rape Crisis Centers in Israel told the Times “Many people are looking for the golden evidence" of survivor testimony, but he urged "don’t put this pressure on this woman.” That's fair enough when the PROPER response would include "doubting (questioning) the (alleged) victim" anyway. 

Sulitzeanu says we can leave the survivors alone because “The corpses tell the story” and they tell it widely. But that story was generally not taken down before the bodies were buried. The severe lack of medical evidence has been widely noted. It's not just that images haven't been made public - in many cases, alleged abuses wind up lacking any documentation anywhere. The Times finds no differently, noting the Jewish religious imperative to bury the dead swiftly, and quoted "Moshe Fintzy, a deputy superintendent and senior spokesman of Israel’s national police, said, “We have zero autopsies, zero,” making an O with his right hand." They never did carefully figure out who was killed by Hamas' bullets, blades, or penises as opposed to weapons the IDF was using on the same battlefield. That could only complicate the crucial finding that Hamas killed them all.

And it seems there was an absolute and total failure to check for or against sexual assault. As the Times reported: "The Israeli police have acknowledged that, during the shock and confusion of Oct. 7, the deadliest day in Israeli history, they were not focused on collecting semen samples from women’s bodies, requesting autopsies or closely examining crime scenes. At that moment, the authorities said, they were intent on repelling Hamas and identifying the dead."

A professor reminded the Times how “armed conflict is so chaotic” it's only natural that if the army is dropping bombs, the police forget how to collect evidence, or something like that. 

So negative findings were not risked, and the question of rape was left up to the public's imagination, and of course Israeli officials have tried to lead that imagination. They insist the rapes were real, massive, and systematic and that - despite the almost total lack of evidence - everybody knows that, so that anyone who pretends to have doubts is an antisemite who secretly rejoices in the mass rape of Israeli women and girls (and even men). 

Some of those who handled the bodies have reported consistent clues. Many of them are noted as unqualified to understand what they see, but some are quite imaginative, and get cited like experts in this report and before. Perhaps most prolific is "Captain Maayan," this time telling the Times how one woman had her fingernails pulled out. She and others have spoken of indirect evidence for especially brutal rape, like broken pelvises and legs. They don't say if the whole bodies were damaged like this, after being found in a tank-flattened house or a hellfire-ravaged car, or in the line of Hamas' explosive weaponry, but that seems likely enough. 

In a similar vein, "The Times also viewed a video, provided by the Israeli military, showing two dead Israeli soldiers at a base near Gaza who appeared to have been shot directly in their vaginas," perhaps among other shots to every part of the body, or perhaps in the targeted way they suggest. Still, those were soldiers that, as we all know, Hamas executed at will. And that's still not quite rape. 

"The Times viewed photographs of one woman’s corpse that emergency responders discovered in the rubble of a besieged kibbutz with dozens of nails driven into her thighs and groin." It seems quite possible the house collapse - likely after an IDF tank attack - is what drove nails into this part of her body and perhaps other parts, besides other random cruelties that occur when a house collapses on you. See the example image at right, (NOT the same image the Times saw) and consider how justified the caption would be. Likely all of it was called "torture" in the official investigation; Maybe "Hamas" tore off someone's right arm with a splintered and burning section of support beam, etc..
 
In this case, the Times reporter(s) seem to endorse this reading, having seen the image. But this reading differs from that of 2 rescuers describing what is most likely the same scene, despite the differences. If so, note the variance between the recorded and the remembered. 

A ZAKA rescuer saw with "professional eyes" a naked woman with a single "sharp object" stuck in "the intimate area of her body," along with "part of a ceiling" in "a building that was completely destroyed."  (https://twitter.com/MorHogeg/status/1729140621859049690) Another ZAKA rescuer reports "two women in Be'eri tied to beds, one with a knife in her vagina and her organs removed. After brutally violating these women, Hamas detonated the house on them, so we found them beneath a pile of stones." (MeToo unless you're a Jew - UnHerd) - (MarinaMedvin on X) - "One was sexually terrorised with a knife stuck in her vagina and all her internal organs removed," (BBC 12/5). A knife, some nails, whatever. It was some deliberate Hamas cruelty prior to the house collapse, which Hamas also engineered.

To their credit, the NYT did not include the allegation of some rescuers of a pregnant woman cut open so the terrorists could remove and execute her fetus before her eyes. That was an absolute crock with only the thinnest links to reality, as I established here on December 18. A December 5 BBC report had included it (but differentlty, with "her foetus stabbed while it was inside her.") noting "The BBC has not been able to independently verify this account, and Israeli media reports have questioned some testimony from volunteers working in the traumatic aftermath of the Hamas attacks."

The Times report also noted "Some emergency medical workers now wish they had documented more of what they saw," to bolster their outlandish descriptions. Their "deep respect for the dead" is cited for failing to do so, and also “we are not allowed to take pictures,” as ZAKA southern operations director Yossi Landau said, explaining why he didn't take any. “In retrospect, I regret it.” Others were seemingly allowed, but say they just didn't have the time (see "G" below), or they refused to photograph the evidence because of "personal limits" (Col. Golan Vach, referring to charred and beheaded baby he swears he saw in Be'eri). Any combination of these reasons is sure to explain why they almost never have any visual evidence. 

Widespread, systematic rape as alleged would likely be captured on video in at least a few cases, when Hamas body cameras, common dashboard cameras, security cameras and mobile phones were all widely in play, and used to document quite a few real acts of violence. As the Times report "The Israeli authorities have no shortage of video evidence" from all these sources "showing Hamas terrorists killing civilians and many images of mutilated bodies." If they had ANY footage of a rape or related activities occurring, that's the place it should be mentioned. But it seems even from this large catalog, carefully scrutinized, no such footage was located. I'm not saying this stuff never happened, just that it seemingly never happened in front of a camera anywhere, which is strange in light of the alleged scale of the abuse.

There has been imagery cited as indirect evidence for rape, with at least 3 scenes apparently included in Israel's 43-minute private-screening atrocity video. As I reviewed that in part 4, these scenes were:

* relevant / inconclusive (bloody pants can have a few causes)

* irrelevant / fake (recycled photo of a killed Kurdish fighter - adding BBC 12/5 seems to mention this scene as genuine ("women naked from the waist down, or with their underwear ripped to one side"), shortly after it had been exposed and removed from the Israeli-run Hamas-Massacre.net website and apparently from the IDF's 43-minute video, whereas Jewish News editor Jotam Confino describes it clearly enough as included back in late October ("on the grass" "her panties taken half off"))

* relevant / even worse (a possible Apache helicopter victim, re-posed hours after death to suggest rape).

The latter became central to this Times report as "the woman in the black dress," now identified as Gal Abdush. That story has been central for me as well, but decentralized in coverage - see section 5 below, linking to an earlier post I had included her in. I hope to assemble a dedicated review post, especially now that the alleged rape victim's family is complaining about the Times' part in spreading a bloated myth. They should be better informed than the reporters, and they had no reason to suspect Gal had been raped, until the reporters convinced some of them, then pretended it was the other way around, citing the family as further evidence for rape. Others remain unconvinced and feel misled; Gal's sister Miral Alter put it: "If we knew that it was a headline like rape slaughter, we would never agree. Never.” 

But first, some consideration of two other lines of evidence that were central to the Times report: 
- two pairs of direct (alleged) witnesses (each containing a "security consultant") claiming to have seen rape, murder and mutilation at the rave, and 
- a military paramedic who says he saw 2 teenage sisters who had clearly been raped.
 
Noting that military members and "security consultants" are especially likely to assist in a state-sponsored coverup and propaganda operation, it should be little surprise that their shifting stories clash with the more credible evidence, and of course none of them has a single image to back up any of it. 

3) The "Security Consultant" Witnesses to Rapes at the Rave 

3A) Four Witnesses with Two (Final) Stories
The Times relied heavily on two alleged witnesses, each backed with a more B-list co-witness,  to the rape, murder, torture and mutilation of several young women fleeing the Nova music festival, along highway 232. 

Raz Cohen is "a young Israeli who had also attended the rave and had worked recently in the Democratic Republic of Congo training Congolese soldiers," as the Times notes. Picture caption: "Raz Cohen, a security consultant, survived the Oct. 7 attacks by hiding in a dried-up streambed."  - elsewhere he's noted as "a discharged officer from the Maglan Patrol," an elite reconnaissance unit. (kan.org.il Dec. 14) It's unclear why he was discharged - perhaps partying and drugs.

The Times heard from Cohen in "an hour-and-a-half interview in a Tel Aviv restaurant." He claims he hid in a dry riverbed "along Route 232 ... about a mile southwest of the party area," when he witnessed five Palestinian men in civilian clothes in a white van, "all carrying knives and one carrying a hammer" pull up "maybe 40 yards in front of him." Cohen says he watched the men drag a "young, naked and screaming" woman across the ground to a spot where they gathered. “She’s standing up," he recalled. "They start raping her. I saw the men standing in a half circle around her. One penetrates her. She screams. ... Then one of them raises a knife,” he said, “and they just slaughtered her.” The Times let Cohen provide the article's title, from his poetic line: "I still remember her voice, screams without words.” 

Hiding along with Raz was "Shoam Gueta, one of Mr. Cohen’s friends and a fashion designer" who also spoke with the Times, with a more vague version of the same story. He says the attackers were “talking, giggling and shouting” as they assaulted the woman, "and that one of them stabbed her with a knife repeatedly, “literally butchering her.”" FWIW Gueta might be the one who designed Cohen's cloak for an October 7 propaganda fashion show. (https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1741364790407180448

Raz Cohen gets the purpose of these stories and the motive why he might exaggerate or invent one: he said in one interview to Israeli media he plans to re-enlist in the IDF to join the fight in Gaza or wherever, because "I need revenge, to live with myself" after allegedly witnessing those horrors, and being unable to stop or document them. "After this" - including the unsupported story he tells - "Gaza [will] not continue to be [on] the map."

"Sapir," a 24-year-old accountant, "has become one of the Israeli police’s key witnesses," the Times reported. Her name full name is withheld for fear of "hounding." She sounds easy to dox, and perhaps eager for it, thinking herself well-poised for a profile-raising lawsuit. She gave the Times "a two-hour interview outside a cafe in southern Israel" 

Around 8 a.m., Sapir says, "she was hiding under the low branches of a bushy tamarisk tree, just off Route 232, about four miles southwest of the party." From there she saw "groups of heavily armed gunmen" - around 100 in total, some seeming military and some civilian, "rape and kill at least five women" as the Times put it. In the report itself, she describes seeing just two women raped and killed, three others raped but not killed (that she saw), and 3 more perhaps raped, and killed out of her view - she claims she just saw their severed heads. That's for a total of 8 victims spoken of. 

"Yura Karol, a 22-year-old security consultant, said he was hiding in the same spot, and he can be seen in one of Sapir’s photos." He relates the same basic story in a more second-hand way.

Some the twisted details told by Sapir: First rape: "One man pulled her by the hair and made her bend over. Another penetrated her, Sapir said, and every time she flinched, he plunged a knife into her back." Then she claims to have seen "another woman “shredded into pieces.”  While one terrorist raped her, she said, another pulled out a box cutter and sliced off her breast," and started a game of toss-the-severed-breast just for fun, as the rape continued. She says they sliced her face, and then the victim "fell out of view" - likely executed, but she didn't claim to see. "Around the same time, she said, she saw three other women raped and terrorists carrying the severed heads of three more women," killed barbarically after what crimes she could only imagine. 

Just from Sapir's amazing spot, she claims to have witnessed 5+ rapes, 5+ murders, including 3+ beheaded women. As noted above, there are reportedly four rape survivors identified in the whole massacre. There are still zero rapes among the dead actually proven from all that physical evidence Israel had access to. And there are still zero beheaded women actually verified, identified, visually documented or credibly reported. She saw more than everyone else combined! She does suggest it was an unusual spot in this regard: “It was like an assembly point.” And if fighters and civilian rapists knew to congregate their crimes here for Sapir and Yura to see, that might go to show the whole thing was systematic, a planned part of Hamas' campaign of genocide.

In fact, the police have specified that they do NOT have the supporting evidence: According to Mondoweiss, Haaretz reported that “investigators were unable to identify the women who, according to the testimony of [Sapir] and other eyewitnesses, were raped and murdered.” Israeli Police Superintendent Adi Edry told the paper, “I have circumstantial evidence, but ultimately my duty is to find evidence that supports her testimony and to find the victims’ identity. At this stage I don’t have those specific corpses.” (Family of key case in New York Times October 7 sexual violence report renounces story, says reporters manipulated them – Mondoweiss)

So there's no evidence past the words of Sapir and Yura, when there probably should be some. But it was good enough for the New York friggin' Times. 

3B) 4 Witnesses, Zero Visual Evidence 

Both Raz Cohen and Sapir are said to have visually proven their presence at the rave, or along Route 232 north or south of it, during the chaotic efforts to flee. That had become an issue after prolific alleged witness Niko Ostroga was found to have fabricated his presence to witness the killing of 29 friends. (Max Blumenthal on X (twitter.com)) Both witnesses also had a second witness to claim hiding with them to corroborate their stories. But all four of them failed to record - by video, still images, audio, or any form - the rapes they claim to have seen in broad daylight. 

Raz Cohen posted this image of him smiling as he hid from Hamas gunmen in a dry riverbed (on the left, with perhaps Gueta on the right - via Max B. on X - text added by me). This photo could be posed in any old "wadi" (as the Arabs call them), but it's likely enough he was at the rave and this is him hiding, just feeling in no immediate danger. But of course, he posted no image of himself frowning after witnessing a horrific rape, and of course, he posted and presumably took no recording of the event.

"Sapir," as the Times reports, "provided photographs of her hiding place and her wounds, and police officials have stood by her testimony and released a video of her, with her face blurred, recounting some of what she saw." But of course, she had no video of what she saw to prove one bit of the elaborate butchery she reports. She even specifies that she relied only on her eyes and/or imagination: "I looked at all this as if I was photographing them with my eyes, not forgetting any detail. I told myself: I should remember everything." And then she would need to insist that everyone believes those are actual memories, and maybe scream antisemitism if anyone doubts her.

Her co-witness "Yura Karol ... said he barely lifted his head to look at the road but he also described seeing a woman raped and killed." He too had no footage that's mentioned. He could lift his head, "barely," but his camera, not at all.

There are legitimate reasons these four people might all fail to record the events they actually witnessed. But mainly this comes down to the increased danger of being spotted with a raised camera. But the same issue applies to raising their eyes to see, and that was allegedly no problem. 

Furthermore, Cohen and perhaps Karol - as "security consultants" with some military training - might know better than most how to covertly film something without being spotted. Cohen was with the Maglan Unit 212 a reconnaissance unit of the IDF, which "specializes in operating behind enemy lines and deep in enemy territory using advanced technologies and weaponry." Maglan means Ibis, "a bird that knows how to adapt in every situation." Maglan - Wikipedia With the confidence of his training, he was able to take a smiling selfie and some other brief video, and to keep his head and eyes high enough to witness a Hamas rape. But he couldn't figure out how his camera lens could join his eyes there? 

They probably failed to record these rapes because there was nothing to film. They didn't even think to claim or stage anything, probably, because the whole idea emerged later. Either way, it was good enough for New York friggin' Times.

3C) 4 Witnesses with Changing Stories

If any of these people had witnessed these crimes, they would also likely mention them in their emergency calls, which would likely be recorded and might be released as proof. But so far, I'm not aware of any such evidence emerging. Did they fail to report these crimes as well as failing to document them? 

They might mention the crimes in the media interviews, and of course they have. But there are troubling discrepancies. 

The Gray Zone noted how, on Nov. 8th, an unnamed woman told Haaretz she saw just one rape: victim bent over, killed by a shot to the head, and then mutilated. Her unnamed friend “didn’t see the rape,” but heard it and had the visuals described. (https://thegrayzone.com/2024/01/10/questions-nyt-hamas-rape-report/) This is almost certain to be "Sapir" and Yura Karol. BBC, Dec. 5, were shown video of an interview with "witness S" who still describes just one rape victim: "S mimes the attackers picking up and passing the victim from one to another. ... the men cut off parts of the victim's body during the assault. "They sliced her breast and threw it on the street," she says. "They were playing with it." Then "The victim was passed to another man in uniform, she continues. "He penetrated her, and shot her in the head before he finished. He didn't even pick up his pants; he shoots and ejaculates." A few weeks later to the Times, Sapir seems to add a second rape-murder, moving the mastectomy but not the execution to this second victim, and seems to add 3 more rapes, 3 severed heads, more stabbing, and no mention of shooting. Or maybe she just didn't mention those details at first. 

And as the Gray Zone noted, Yura (or the similar co-witness of "S") said in November that he "didn't see the rape" but only heard it. Dy late December he “described seeing a woman raped and killed.” 

Raz Cohen's first media interviews - like his Instagram photo - fail to reflect his most powerful claims. A compilation video by My Lord Bebo on X remains useful; in 4 interviews published October 9 - at least the shared portions - he recalls hiding under the stage and then in the wadi, and seeing people killed including with knives, prior to the army showing up and killing no one that he mentions. (but in one interview, he seem abnormally concerned with or distracted by a helicopter flying nearby.) Nothing related to rape is mentioned. Then on the 10th Cohen gave an interview to PBS News Hour where he suddenly mentions the rape-murder in detail, and it was a main feature of all later interviews. 

The clear impression is he decided or was compelled to add this detail for some reason. 
The Gray Zone's "Screams Without Proof" article took this line, only to learn that it did come up on the first day - but just once, and apparently mentioned off-camera, as related by the reporter, Ariel Oseran. Author Max Blumenthal on X issued an update after seeing the fuller broadcast (from i24) including Oseran's attached "second-hand summary of comments Cohen supplied to him after bolting the interview for "emotional support" at Barzalai Hospital in Ashkelon. According to Oseran, while hiding from infiltrators from Gaza, Cohen claimed to have listened to the sounds of Palestinian infiltrators "raping Israeli women, dead, alive, some injured. He told me he could hear this. ... he chose not to look, but he could hear them laughing constantly."

Some emergency emotional support could help one to go ahead with reporting the actual truth, or to cope with speaking a terrible lie that's meant to justify acts of genocide. He would say the experience of hearing multiple rapes and at least one rape-murder and some necrophilia had kept him from speaking of it until he had some "emotional support," and kept him from saying it on camera until the next day. But by then, he was clear that he visually SAW just the ONE rape-murder he mentions from then on. 

In fact, in a Kan interview, Dec. 18, he says "I couldn't hear her, I think they blocked her mouth." (העד הגלוי הראשון למעשי האונס) But at first he could ONLY hear her, and later to the Times, he painfully recalled her "screams without words." 

Note how Raz Cohen originally had multiple-rape and necrophilia claims ("Israeli women, dead, alive, some injured"), then by October 10th he didn't. He wasn't at Sapir's mythical "assembly point." Sapir and Yura Karol were there, and so from November on, THEY had the multiple-rape and necrophilia claims. It's almost as if the narrative managers transfer atrocity claim files between their fake "security consultant" witnesses whenever they decide to re-organize them. 

Note also: Yura said in November that he "didn't see the rape," but then by late December he decided that he DID see it. Like Raz, he's a "security consultant." Two of two described "security consultant" witnesses wound up switching from hearing the rape(s) to actually seeing them. It's almost as if the narrative managers had their fake "security consultant" witnesses revise their stories to fit Israel's propaganda (or "hasbara") needs: "give us the kind of story after which "Gaza [will] not continue to be [on] the map." It needs to be terrible, and you need to have SEEN it, leaving no doubts."

3D) Some Other Witnesses to Rapes at the Rave
At least two witnesses described to the Times women at the Nova rave seemingly raped and murdered around the site, One was in a rawhide vest, bound and bent over, and another whose "her vagina area appeared to have been sliced open, “as if someone tore her apart.” Both victims were only seen after the fact, if they were seen at all. Again, neither witness - a ZAKA rescuer, and an event organizer - was able to document it. 

There have been others that didn't make it into this report. For example:
On December 3 - as these other stories were coming out louder and thicker, there was at least one other reported by the New York Post which the Times' later report failed to follow-up on - perhaps due to credibility issues, even relative to the cases above, this 39-year-old alleged ravegoer didn't get a long interview in an Israeli cafe
Yoni Saadon, a 39-year-old father of four and foundry shift manager, spoke to the UK’s Sunday Times, about witnessing two women killed, one after rape and the other for resisting rape.  
first one witnessed "after pulling over him the body of a slain woman who had also been shot in the head — and smearing her blood on himself so it looked like he, too, was dead." 

“I saw this beautiful woman with the face of an angel and eight or 10 of the fighters beating and raping her,” ... “When they finished, they were laughing, and the last one shot her in the head,” he said. “I will never forget her face,” he said. “Every night I wake to it and apologize to her, saying, ‘I’m sorry.’"

"Saadon said he eventually joined others who had fled the site and hid in trees and bushes. That’s when he witnessed two more Hamas gunmen attack another young woman who was resisting being stripped, he said." He wasn't hiding under anyone this time, but was still able to see this without being seen. 
“They threw her to the ground, and one of the terrorists took a shovel and beheaded her,” Saadon told the UK outlet. “And her head rolled along the ground. I see that head, too,” when he wakes up at night, driven almost to madness by these terrible and ever-so-real memories.

Not many witnesses mention decapitation along with rape as something they saw. So is this the same man? BBC, December 5: "One man we spoke to from the festival site said he heard the "noises and screams of people being murdered, raped, decapitated". To our question about how he could be sure - without seeing it - that the screams he heard indicated sexual assault rather than other kinds of violence, he said he believed while listening at the time that it could only have been rape." Is that Mr. Saadon? Did he switch from hearing to seeing, like Cohen and Karol did? Or perhaps the reverse? If he's a "security consultant" like them, it isn't mentioned, but someone might want to check into that.

Again, no camera - Saadon's or any of those he was hiding with in the second spot - was allowed to see the attempted rape or the shovel beheading he describes. A thing like that can only appear in words and, according to those words, in memories - a notoriously malleable medium. - Or - Hamas' most "unspeakable" crimes, somehow can only be spoken, never documented or proven. If you accept that premise, then this Times report and this Gaza genocide might be for you. And here are some more good reasons...

4) A Soldier/Paramedic: Two Teenage Sisters Raped

Again, rescuers claim they saw things. The Times report says "A paramedic in an Israeli commando unit said that he had found the bodies of two teenage girls in a room in Be’eri. One was lying on her side, he said, boxer shorts ripped, bruises by her groin. The other was sprawled on the floor face down, he said, pajama pants pulled to her knees, bottom exposed, semen smeared on her back.” In a surprise move, "Because his job was to look for survivors, he said, he kept moving and did not document the scene."

Importantly, the report adds: "Neighbors of the two girls killed — who were sisters, 13 and 16 — said their bodies had been found alone, separated from the rest of their family."

Max Blumenthal did some research here. Bringing it to the Times report authors in Screams without proof: questions for NYT about shoddy ‘Hamas mass rape’ report - The Grayzone: "That paramedic appears to be the same source CNN relied on in its own special report accusing Hamas of a systematic and deliberate campaign of rape on October 7. He is a supposed paramedic from Israeli Air Force Special Tactics rescue unit 669 identified only as “G.” And like your other sources, he has proven to be an unreliable, if not deeply dishonest, witness." CNN report with the same scene described in the same style, estimating the girls at age 13-14, from "G, a paramedic in Israel's elite 669 special tactics rescue unit," (spoken audio at 6:51 What We Know About Sexual Violence on October 7th - Tug of War - Podcast on CNN Audio)

Max B suspects this G MIGHT be the same person who authored a book about his service in unit 669 as "Guy M," on government orders. If so, he's quite likely Guy Melamed, the son of Sagi Melamed, a self-proclaimed "fundraising sensei" who had promoted the book. Just out of caution, I won't endorse that link without further reading. For now there's Guy Melamed, and then there's the paramedic dubbed "G," perhaps that same Guy, who will here be called "this guy" or "G." 

Furthermore, Max notes: "G" "was previously interviewed by the right-wing Republic TV of India," in a shared video clip. The "Chief sergeant, first class" speaks with his back turned. Max hears "a distinctive Brooklyn accent," FWIW, and it sounds like the voice heard on CNN. He describes the scene in question and also relates finding a dead baby stabbed all over, tossed into the garbage can. But only one baby was clearly reported among the dead on October 7, as Max noted: "Mila Cohen, who was accidentally shot, not stabbed, and who was not found in any garbage can. Once again, the NY Times failed to vet its sources and wound up turning to a proven fabulist for evidence." As we'll see, it seems very unlikely that this guy ever witnessed these two girls either. 

Max Blumenthal aptly concluded that G's claims probably refer to the only two teenage sisters reported as killed in Be'eri, and those were aged 13 and 16 like the neighbors said. So it can hardly be doubted this refers to Yahel and Noiya Sharabi, who were reportedly killed alongside their mother Lianne, while their father and an uncle were kidnapped alive to Gaza. (at right: Yahel, 13 - Lianne, 48 - and Noiya, 16 - as they were in life) 

The Gray Zone refuted the paramedic claim by citing reports that the bodies of Lianne, Noiya and Yahel were found 'cuddled together,' not separated and partly raped. But as mentioned in this BBC report along those lines, that's just what Lianne's parents in Bristol, England, were told. They never made contact that day and "Mrs Brisley said they later found out the bodies of their daughter and grandchildren had been found by a soldier "all cuddled together with Lianne doing what a mother would do - holding her babies in her arms, trying to protect them at the end". She took this as "a small comfort" in light of "horrible images in my mind," and some "soldier" found that for her.

How many different soldiers would have found the girls? Probably just one that's spoken up, and this probably refers to the guy in question. If so, he told grandma Brisley they were all found hugging and implicitly un-raped, and then told the world, by a few sources culminating with the New York Times, that the girls WERE apparently raped. 

Such duplicity would make a certain sense, trying to spare the family from the truth, but letting the world see it so they can understand Israel's war aims. But it seems neither of those stories from the soldier-rescuer(s) is true. 

A more detailed report was run in the UK Sun on October 17 is based on family interviews and photographs from the site. According to this report, "It has been confirmed Yahel died alongside her mum Lianne while her sister Noiya, 16, dad Eli, 51 and uncle Yossi, 53 were missing or kidnapped." How could Noiya be found "cuddled" with the other two - or be seen raped and dead next to her sister - and also be declared "missing?"

Several images of the home are shown in the Sun report, displaying no sign of fire or shelling, suggesting the violence here was all by Hamas, not the IDF. "A hallway where a huge blackened smear of blood appears to be the spot where Lianne died. And upstairs, another bloodstain tells its horror story in a room where Yahel slept — heavily staining the carpet close to a pair of pink pyjamas and vanity case." The family dog was killed, just off frame of the living room photograph. Some blood was shed at least in the pantry, and some bloody blue fabric is seen in the room "where Yahel was slain." The single body is removed by the time of this photo, and the reported bloodstain is left off-frame.

But by this report, Noiya's body was not found anywhere in the house, and she was declared missing as of October 17. Her remains were found, likely somewhere else, and formally identified on October 22. (The Guardian 10/22) Jewish News 10/25: "Noiya was identified through her teeth only two days ago." We just buried a mother and two daughters and the father is missing. This is a second Holocaust' - Jewish News Therefore, it's difficult to see how Noiya can be seen dead "in a room" with her sister, raped or otherwise, in the immediate aftermath. I'm really going to need to see verification for the paramedic's claim. But as it so happens, he failed to document this important crime scene, and no one else got a photo until after the two alleged bodies were removed. 

Still ... it was a good enough story for the New York friggin' Times with its research department and so on. 

Israeli media mouthpiece Eylon Levy cited the Republic interview of this guy G, in a post on X offering to hook journalists up with the witness:  "Israeli special forces paramedic describes the aftermath of the brutal rape and execution of Israeli girls in Be’eri during the October 7 Massacre." Here with translated captions, he describes two girls in "their own bedroom," as usual with one on the bed and one on the floor - then he mentions how "the girl" - not one of the girls - whom he estimated to be aged 14-15, "was laying on her bed - on the floor" (correcting himself), face down, with the signs he describes about the same as above, calling the rape "brutal, brutal." The other "girl" ... he doesn't say here. She wasn't "THE girl" or maybe not a girl at all, but the mother he sometimes calls a girl, and it seems less and less clear that she was raped. "The girl" was left to lie "in the blood of her ... in a pile of blood." He seems to correct himself before specifying WHOSE blood that was. Is that because he learned not to say "sister" and knew not to contradict it either?

Maybe he saw Lianne and Yahel and no third person, and decided both were "girls." But other reports had the two dying on separate floors, not together "in their bedroom." The other reports are preferable, and it seems likely this guy "G" was not even present at the site. He does seem informed, if still confused, about the 2-sisters vs. 2-females issue there, where he plugged his "memories" of Hamas rape evidence. Concurring with Max: "the NY Times failed to vet its sources and wound up turning to a proven fabulist for evidence."

Sagi, if that's your kid ... he's a moron.

P.S. Did G or anyone actually observe semen on the back of 13-year-old Yahel? Perhaps. But if so, the meaning isn't  certain. Hamas invaders or others in their wake are probable culprits, of course - men sometimes rape even without orders. But if some other "rescuers" of the Haredi-staffed agencies ZAKA or United Hatzalah had arrived before him, it might matter that "like with many insular religious communities, the Haredis historically have an enormous sexual abuse problem." It's not limited to the infamous abuser Yehuda Meshi-Zahav, the disgraced and deceased ZAKA founder. (see: "If You Say Anything to Anyone, a Zaka Van Will Run You Over" (thewaywardrabbler.com)) I'm suggesting someone in their ranks might be willing to rape an attractive corpse, if not just for the twisted pleasure of it, then for the propaganda potential of the evidence he would leave behind. But I don't really suspect this; more likely, this rape evidence never existed outside the world of words. With maybe some scattered exceptions, I would guess no one raped anyone in this attack, at least for being far too busy with other things. 

P.S. What happened to Noiya? We can only guess, and so I will. Her mother and sister may have been perceived as offering resistance and swiftly killed, or were killed on accident as the terrorists blasted through some locked door, or the like.  Perhaps they were able to spare Noiya and take her captive, maybe injured. They might take her along with others to another house, where she and the rest were killed - perhaps by Hamas or, quite possibly, in one of the IDF tank and/or helicopter attacks that seemingly collapsed several homes in Be'eri. These mysterious events prevented several dozen abductions by killing the captives along with their captors, and it seems this happened by design. We've heard several accounts and even seen video from just one of these, but there were several others with stories left untold, and Noiya Sharabi's true story quite likely intertwines with one of those.

5) Gal Abdush, Some Video Evidence, and the Misleading of a Family

The Times report led with the case of Gal Abdush, probably because there actually WAS video evidence involved in this rare case. As the Times relates the story, Gal attended the rave with her husband Nagi Abdush, until the attack began just after sunrise. They apparently fled early and made it some ways north on route 232 before they were killed under murky circumstances, leaving behind 2 children. Gal and Nagi Abdush, 34 & 35: Couple were 'best friends' | The Times of Israel

As the Times explained: "That night, Eden Wessely, a car mechanic, drove to the rave site with three friends and found Ms. Abdush sprawled half naked on the road next to her burned car, about nine miles north of the site. ... lying on her back, dress torn, legs spread, vagina exposed." 

In a highly unusual development, Ms. Wessely recorded what she saw in some short videos and then published them. A provided video screenshot relates the familiar scene in a view I had never seen (at right). "When she posted the video of the woman in the black dress on her Instagram story, she was deluged with messages" and it went viral. For example, Daniel Amram, a popular private news blogger in Israel, tweeted the video to Greta Thunberg, claiming that the victim “was raped and burned alive.” (but he thinks it's "this family who just found her sister")  

More importantly "Based largely on the video evidence — which was verified by The New York Times — Israeli police officials said they believed that Ms. Abdush was raped, and she has become a symbol of the horrors visited upon Israeli women and girls during the Oct. 7 attacks." 

Was this conclusion based "largely" or "totally" on this video evidence? Again, nowhere was forensic evidence for or against rape gathered, and no witness claims that I've seen, including in this report, indicates that Gal was raped. So it's not clear what other evidence there would be.

The Electronic Intifada & the Gray Zone (at least by citation) seem to not recognize it; "There is currently no trace of the video on the internet despite the Times claim that it “went viral.”" Perhaps due just to the nudity it includes, the video is not allowed on the usual platforms, but it frequently appears, is scrubbed, and re-appears. Still images and discussion of it abound. Max Blumenthal did well enough discussing the video at one point (recalled now as "I demonstrated months ago that Abdush had been killed by an explosion."). 

I saw the video on Hamas-Massacre.net. The body's pose with spread legs COULD be natural or unrelated to rape, and her lack of underwear with the skimpy dress COULD be her deliberate choice. But between them, I see the suggested rape everyone else does. However ... In part 3, I included some clues that she was killed by an Apache's 30mm cannon shell that somehow tore across her right thigh before detonating on impact with the ground and taking off the back of her head. There are other explanations for the different injuries, including that some are postmortem. But judging by the images alone, she most likely died from the massive head injury (a split scalp and broken edge of her skull near the crown are just visible enough in the video). 

I also argued how it was several hours after her death that Mrs. Abdush's body was moved into the seen pose. If her right arm sticks up like that due to rigor mortis, as I suspect, she was probably in a different position, perhaps face-down and/or in a complex situation, for at least 8-10 hours before this twisted bit of staging. And the burning of her upper left torso, left arm, and face was seemingly done only then, in this final position. 

If the seen pose is the "proof" of Hamas rape and a fit basis for genocide and ethnic cleansing against the people of Gaza ... and someone artificially arranged that pose, perhaps to also conceal another death by IDF "friendly fire" ... well, that would be damn troubling. But the good news would be that, judging by the massive lack of visual evidence for rape, this kind of staging was not widespread.

My next step, maybe taken slowly as well, is to reconsider the physical-visual "OSINT" evidence in light of the new reports and all else, to see if I can confirm that initial view or find an even better explanation that might be of actual help in clearing up this ongoing confusion. I'll be citing some great OSINT work by Michael Kobs at this thread: Michael Kobs on X: "The circumstances of Gal Abdush's death raise very serious questions indeed.

But briefly here, from the articles I've read: Gal's last message was at 6:51 am, quoted as "we are at the border, and you can’t imagine sounds of explosions around us." Also given: simply "You don't understand." Her killing was apparently around 7am, as reported then by her husband Nagi - he mentioned how "they" had "shot" Gal, unclear where or with what, and she was "dying" - maybe less suddenly than I would expect by the head wound (and reports I've seen don't have Apache helicopters up quite this early). "They" presumably means Hamas, although it's not clear if he could know just who Gal was "shot" by. Nagi continued sending messages for another 45 minutes before he too was killed, at the end asking his brother to watch out for their kids. Apparently none of the messages mentioned anyone raping Gal, burning her alive, or anything of the sort.

As geolocated by Michael Kobs, they died near the "Mefalsim Battle" as given at Mapping the Massacres (oct7map.com) where Hamas hardly killed or kidnapped anyone as they crumbled under an aggressive defense that day, with a lot of deaths, and some civilian deaths on the highway just after that "dangerous curve." Gal and Nagi at least died there but weren't mapped there. At right, from Michael's thread: the location of Gal's body and the car (Nagi is badly charred and partly missing, on the other side of the car)

Between messages from Gal and Nagi, the police, and everything they knew, the family heard nothing about suspicions or evidence for rape until the Times reporters showed up. 

The report says family members saw the Wessely video of Gal's remains, recognized them, and “feared that she might have been raped.” Perhaps someone was coaxed to agree that though had crossed their mind(s). But the victim's sister Miral Alter stated in a January 2 Instagram comment that she doubted the rape claims and all the reasons given to support them, and complained “the New York Times that came to us indicated that they wanted to do a story in memory of Gal and Nagy and that’s why we approved. If we knew that it was a headline like rape slaughter, we would never agree. Never.” Gal Abdush’s mother Etti Brakha, her sister Tali Barakha, and Nagi’s brother Nissim Abdush have also lodged similar complaints, as compiled at Screams without proof: questions for NYT about shoddy ‘Hamas mass rape’ report - The Grayzone

Some respond to this with a Hebrew-language article at Ynet from December 31, wherein Gal's mother, her brother Rami Bracka, and Nagi's mother now seem to believe that Gal was in fact raped. But they all "learned" this from the Times report and/or its journalists' assurances that, as Gal's mother put it, "they cross-checked the testimonies and said Gal had been sexually assaulted" - somebody witnessed it. But no testimonies that I've seen, and none that the Times shared, sheds any light on Gal's demise, except for Nagi's messages, which of course mentioned no such thing. Did the reporters pull a trick here?

Gals mother, Etti Brakha: "We didn't know about the rape at first, only when the New York Times reporter contacted us did we know. They said they cross-checked the testimonies and said Gal had been sexually assaulted. We still don't know exactly what happened." She also thinks "There is evidence that they saw my daughter's sexual assault." As far as we've seen, there's evidence that Nagi saw no such thing (his failing to mention it), and no other testimony to contradict that. If the reporters suggested otherwise, they might have been dishonest.

Rami Brakha, Gal's brother: "It was only in the New York Times investigation that we understood from the journalists that my sister had been raped. It was hard to know what she went through before she was shot and murdered." But by some magic they still can't explain, Gettleman, Schwartz and Sella had figured it out for the family.

Finally, Nagi's mother recalls "That morning, my son Nagi called us and said, '[they] Kill her, shoot her,' and screamed on the phone on speakerphone. Only now, after hearing what they did to Gal, do I try to think about what my son saw with his own eyes, how his wife was sexually abused, before they shot her and then shot him." It would be easy to not think about it earlier, when Nagi spoke of no such thing. Even now, that should make very limited sense.

So those folks don't seem to feel misled by the reporters, even though they probably should. And I haven't seen Miral Alter, for one, act convinced by the Times' tricks. She was clear in denying Gal's rape even after the report. She knew to cite the timeline of private messages to point out "It doesn’t make any sense that in four minutes, they raped her, slaughtered her, and burned her.” Neither does it make sense that her husband would fail to mention any of that in his final minutes and several communications.

A leading pose and an inspired police reading, and supposedly some other, unseen "testimony" led the Times to decide on rape. The family had no reason yet to form this idea, but when the reporters came in so confident, some members were convinced, if also confused. Of course, journalists are supposed to follow stories, not plant them in their subjects' minds as was seemingly done here, to get them involved and seeming to support the claims. Some of them still do not buy the claims and the rest might, but apparently for no reason past the same journalistic tricks under discussion here.  

See also: Max Blumenthal on X: "The Times must issue a retraction and punish @Gettleman and his colleagues if it can not discredit the IG comment below by Miral Alter (apparent sister of Gal Abdush) At The Grayzone, I demonstrated months ago that Abdush had been killed by an explosion on October 7, and was not…" / X (twitter.com)

On Rising via Max Blumenthal on X

Watch: NY Times "investigation" of mass rape by Hamas falls apart | The Electronic Intifada

Family of key case in New York Times October 7 sexual violence report renounces story, says reporters manipulated them – Mondoweiss

Conclusion: And that, folks, is how the New York friggin' Times crafted its big assist for the Netanyahu regime's ongoing genocide in Gaza.

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Syria CW Infowar Latest Moves in Review


in review moves regarding the high-profile CW allegations of Douma, 2018 and  Khan Sheikhoun, 2017. I'm not that read-up on the news, so these may not be the best sources - more may be offered in comments below.
Here my comments
first Douma

Douma: an Emmy for NYT's Thought-Impaired Analysis -A few months back was the leak of a report by an OPCW engineering sub-team. A complete lack of an answer the challenge it brought - the OPCW's own suppressed science agrees with that of Russian scientists and all credible independent experts who like myself, who consider the actual details and show their work - as if to help erase that victory for truth, someone re-endorsed one of the worst efforts to support the fake narrative of the powerful, granting a News Emmy to the New York Times for last June's program "One Building, One Bomb." It's described as "the most definitive reconstruction" of the event, using amazing visual analysis to "cut through government denials to reveal how the attack took place and assign blame to the Syrian authorities." The NYT team here worked with Forensic Architecture and Bellingcat so all the genius wound up tripping over itself. This was an especially stupid exercise full of invented science that makes no sense. I could find several other examples if I reviewed it now, but here's a quick list of some of those I compiled earlier in a lengthy rebuttal.

- super-deadly dose, death in minutes - No. Everything known about how chlorine (rarely) kills argues against this. Maybe 1-3 people would die, probably in hospital after leaving this site. Chlorine is not a nerve agent, does not cause instant death, paralysis or impairment, just a lot of corrosive irritation and a desire to leave. These people appear to have died suddenly while doing bizarre things, or to have died at unknown speed in some gas chamber before their bodies were dragged into place here. I've always suspected the latter, and deeper research suggests more and more to be the case.

- corneal burns - No. The "opacity" cited is from being dead. It's as standard as rigor mortis. They suspiciously LACK the redness of corneal burns you'd expect from chlorine or other caustic agents. Still, it seems they were exposed to a caustic agent...

- grid pattern on the cylinder's side means impact through the metal grill - No. It would mean the thing was laid sideways like a sausage on that grill, while its bars were heated red hot to get the lines "seared in" on the side. NYT fake experts need to go to a barbecue someday and try to think that out. Do the grill marks on those hot dogs prove they flew lengthwise, like little meat missiles, crashing right through the grill?

- frosted cylinder - No. Malachy Browne at least proudly posted the image at right following supposed frost on the top of the cylinder at location 4, lasting for days after the event, including where someone wiped it with their hands and it never re-frosted. That's clearly settled dust, from the impact or - considering the many, many problems with this scene and the precedent set at loc. 2 - just sifted on top for realism. There's clearly a white dust coating the whole bed area, not just the cold metal of the cylinder. And as anyone on that team who actually looked into this auto-refrigeration might know, it happens only on the parts of the metal in contact with the cold-boiling liquid gas inside - the lower half, then a shrinking portion of the underside as it slowly boiled away trough the open valve or whatever breach there is.

The cylinder at location 2 is frosted only on a small part of its underside, as the same NYT report times it abut 10 pm  - some 2-3 hours after the attack it's close to empty. At loc. 4 the valve was intact, might have a hairline crack, and there are signs of major chlorine release, besides additional liquids - but it never seems to be frosted, was noted as half-full and NOT leaking when inspectors went (noted by Sander H), suggesting any release here was after someone opened the functional valve and then closed it again. And anyway, if that were frost it would be on the underside, you morons.

- black rust from chlorine - No. Black rust can happen in low-oxygen environments, underwater, on the steel inside the concrete on bridges, etc. No examples of prior chlorine attacks show a black rust, just the usual orange kind, on bare metal. We see that in Douma as well. Here the "rust" is seen on the intact yellow paint, which doesn't "rust" at all. And it looks like the black soot everything below the cylinder was coated with. That's clearly from a fire deliberately set atop the rubble (so the after the alleged cylinder impact), and might be a clue to the staging of the scene. But NYT, Bellingcat, FA, et al. totally missed it.

- missed: besides all the basic issues about logic, timing, and motive that always argued pretty strongly against government guilt: actual deaths needing another explanation, specific and unusual signs of their death that also need special explanation (in progress) - details large and small proving the cylinders did not cause the damage. Here again is a decent view from above and then below the impact point.




"One building, one bomb," yes, or maybe a mortar shell. It hit that upper left corner and detonated, sprayed shrapnel all around the balcony, impacted the floor of it first with its blast wave, hurling the concrete and rebar inward. Also, someone laid a gas tank at the same spot later on, and shoddy journalism helped them pass of that cheap trick, and THAT is what gets rewarded around here. But news Emmies aren't about truth but about that "news" thing - here it's assured authority, distracting computer graphics, dark, though-simulating mood music, and most importantly a "plausible" or politically acceptable conclusion in line with the accepted findings of controlled agencies so far. Bad news: Someone gassed babies and other civilians in a horrible manner and got away with it. Eh. Go ask Madeline Albright about the kind of hard choices we have to make to do the amazingly righteous stuff we do in the world.

KS liberated, Grim Discoveries
Syrian government force finally re-reconquered the city from HTS militants by August 22, ending a five-year occupation (Al-Masdar). Syrian and Russian officials inspected the site of the cave "hospital" from the 2017 videos - where people were left dying in the mud - and found attached a sprawling underground base, they say, considered adequate "for stationing 3,500 terrorists," with various facilities including propaganda "studios." Some discarded weapons were found, along with "military equipment, helmets and gas masks" and flags and uniforms of the defeated militants. (Fars News) RT showed some video footage of the tunnels, along with apparent jail cells showing squalid conditions, and women's clothing left behind (RT video set to 1:10 to show the same well-known exterior). This is all allegedly from just behind where those women, children and men were seen dead and dying, some later developing head wounds, some sporting them already.

No word on gas chambers being found on this site, but it's not clear they've found everything nor that this part would be done right here. The number of loaded trucks involved does still suggest gathering from somewhere else within short driving distance they've still never shown us.

New Info on Staging of CW Attacks with Murdered Hostages?
The same recent Fars News article cited above adds:
"In a relevant development on Wednesday, Director of the Fund for Research of Problems of Democracy Maxim Grigoryev stated that members of the so-called civil defense group White Helmets have deliberately executed women and children for the purpose of disseminating false information about the situation in Syria."
...
Grigoryev highlighted that White Helmets, on certain occasions, have used the bodies of hostages executed by terrorists on their territories to take photos and make video records of a staged chemical attack.
“Some of them, including women and children, were deliberately executed for the purpose,” he added."

The basis and veracity of these exact claims is unclear at the moment, but of course I've long suspected the gist of the allegation (managed massacres of captives) is true, and that there is valid evidence around, some of which I find, some more of which Grigoriev's team might have just found.

KS: Postol - Chen Critical Analysis Derailed:
An anticipated mainstream journal publication of a report co-authored by MIT professor Theodore Postol had its publication postponed, maybe cancelled. Science Magazine reported on this story:

"Now, a manuscript questioning that conclusion has caused a heated dispute among U.S. scientists. Until this week, the paper was scheduled for publication by Science & Global Security (SGS), a prestigious journal based at Princeton University. But as Science went to press, SGS’s editors suspended publication amid fierce criticism and warnings that the paper would help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Russian government."

Before, the journal had noted controversy existed, but "the scientific community has well-established practices for dealing with this challenge." But on 24 September, they mentioned "a number of issues with the peer-review and revision process" requiring they put it on hold to review those issues.

This comes after a concerted effort by regime-change activists to pressure SGS to refuse publication, raising concerns if their political pressure caused the journal to cave in.

The Bellingcat critique cited by Science Mag raises a valid point on lack of usual damage - Postol argues rebel rockets just don't fragment well, so they're pretty useless. He didn't seem to consider it was a non-explosive chemical rocket as I've always suspected.

Supposed expert J.P. Zanders' critique that Syrian sarin was used is faulty, based on a faith that past use as all by Syria. But that was always circular, accepted based on prior believed use, never on established fact. Or IF this is the real recipe Syria used, and not just the one that keeps turning up, he ignores that recipes can be replicated by people with a more rational motive than Damascus would have.

Still none of these critics can find anything but alibis in the radar record (right), and they all ignore key facts like that the observed wind was opposite of that needed for the allegations to work. (below, my classic wind graphic for upper-level winds - ground level is more westerly (to the east). Anyone who thinks this must be or can be shown wrong, be sure to check here first, and if you still feel that way, bring it there.)


CW expert and regime-change activist Gregory Koblentz "says Postol has disregarded overwhelming evidence and has a pro-Assad agenda," Science reports, and warned with some telling hyperbole "The paper would be “misused to cover up the [Assad] regime’s crimes" and "permanently stain the reputation of your journal."" To "cover up" "crimes" that were just bogus accusation to begin with, by demonstrating that they were bogus, is not an ethical lapse not something that should harm anyone's reputation. Mr. Koblentz probably has no special reason to be so sure his own obvious anti-Assad agenda is based in fact rather than just a politically convenient narrative that's been steered to emerge. He's a hypocrite.

But all these critics may have varying points. I'm not sure how to "properly" judge a scholarly paper, but I've looked at the Postol, Chen, et al. report and it seems to have some logic issues (at least the debatable answer to lack of fragmentation, as noted above, the insistence the metal fragments must be from the weapon used, and must be some kind of pipe or tube). Working alone these last years Postol's output is rather poor and error-prone, to the extent I've looked at it. Working with Richard Lloyd in 2013-14 the team output was excellent. With others, Goong Chen and his team, it seemed on quick review they came out somewhere in the middle.

I humbly suggest from my corner we take advantage of this pause. That exact paper should be cancelled, but considering the complexities, a slot should be left open. Perhaps Mr. Chen could lead a revision of the findings for a better product with no logical or factual errors, just political ones. That could be the test; as it stands, it's hard to separate political agendas from genuine technical issues. It seems from my end the truth tends to help Syria and Russia in the way Mr. Koblentz suggested Postol's paper would, and could be blocked for that reason alone. Is that the case here? I wish I could be more clear on that question.

KS: Bellingcat's Dying M4000 Narrative
Bellingcat founder Eliot Higgins was excited recently to solidify some fragment IDs they made last year, comparing scraps from the Latamnah and Khan Sheikhoun sarin attacks in March and April 2017 to a Syrian-made M4000 chemical bomb. This is taken as proving Syrian forces dropped that bomb from a jet that must have been over the town somehow, and ignores the possibility the pieces are planted. But the new twist is an old example of an M4000 seen in 2013, and then another from 2014, being noticed and brought to compare - the first visual comparisons possible so far. Neither of these, he thinks, was used for CW, both of them likely being re-purposed for conventional explosives (which he says Syria has claimed and which I don't doubt).

But in the 2017 cases, sarin turned up, so that would be the M4000 doing its original job. If that's what these scraps are from, and if they relate to the attack.

An earlier March 24 attack … did the M4000 turn up there too? I'm not so read up on that one, but it's thought to have caused a doctor to die the next day after a simple chlorine attack on the 25th. It went totally unreported at the time, but later had reports lodged, and samples gathered 10 months later that tested positive for intact, non-degraded sarin - meaning it was introduced to the source material probably just weeks earlier, not 10 months earlier.

The 2013 M4000 is said to fall from a jet ("gift of Mig") and landed near fighters in the southern Damascus suburbs, with no visible damage besides some mild denting of the tail assembly. This suggests it landed on its side, likely tail-end first, after a short and unstable fall, from maybe 50 meters up? Maybe at an angle, arcing in after it was hurled with some crude catapult? Or maybe I'm under-estimating the damage and someone dropped it off the bed of the delivery pickup truck? To me it looks more in that range than any range of plausible aircraft altitudes. Here it is (bottom) compared to the broken and distorted parts found at Latamnah.

Allegations: Both of these fell from jets and landed. Neither detonated with powerful high explosives. Aside from perhaps the drop altitude, no difference is proposed besides one having a small CW dispersal charge triggered upon impact. The 2017 story is debatable, likely involving high-explosives and thus ruling out sarin. But the 2013 story is out. If it makes no sense, it's not true. And if it's not true, wonder why they don't tell us the true story of how militant got at least one copy of a M4000 to play around with.

I've never been one to doubt that identification (see Postol-Higgins debate post), and I'm not about to start now. Others insist on challenging it as if it were central, as if it has to be from the weapon used and can't just be planted to sow a bogus story. But these things have a way of being in bogus stories. I was working on this subject is a little more detail for a post of middling importance I may not complete on "The M4000 distraction." If this seems to be needed, I'll finish it. In the meantime and in case, my advice is quit doubting the ID unless you can find a VALID reason, neither fully accept nor reject it, and just focus on the follow-up question: "if it were M4000 scraps, so what?" As Charles Wood proposes:
"In a spectacular own goal, Higgins has 'disclosed' that Syrian terrorists have long held bomb parts that could be used to fake the Khan Sheikhoun sarin bombing.
That's not to say an M4000 was even used, just that the parts in the crater are 'consistent' with Higgin's bomb parts."

Monday, September 10, 2018

Painting Vs. Reality in Syria Crisis Response

Assad Files 2018, Part 3
September 10, 2018
updates Sept. 28, Oct. 13

Note, October 13: a better, more readable version at 21st Century Wire, that more fully explains the context and implications. with the help of Patrick Henningsen, who added a few points, provided the space, and has promoted it as the important find it is.
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In Assad Files 2018 part 2, we looked at three more documents shared in a recent channel 4 program, that offered further insights into how banal and non-criminal Syria's prison system really operated back in 2012-13, amidst this horrendous crisis and endless cartoonish allegations. In summary, we learned of these orders suggesting the "Caesar photo" victims probably died somewhere less normal:

Now we go further back to the allegedly brutal response to peaceful protests that sparked armed resistance ...

August 5, 2011 Crisis Cell Meeting: A Picture Was Painted
I'll start with a re-write of some points raised back in 2016, in my first analysis of the so-called "Assad Files," building off of an ambitious piece of propaganda by Ben Taub at the New Yorker.

Assessing the "Linchpin" of the CIJA Case
In the article, Taub paints fairly benign statements from government officials as deeply ominous - suggesting this is about what the guys informing him (the CIJA [committee for international justice and accountability]) are also doing. These quotes can seem that way - with lights from below on either side and the background dimmed. For example, Taub explains, there was a crucial meeting of the Central Crisis Management Cell in Damascus on August 5, 2011, worried about “the laxness in handling the crisis,” which was getting bigger.

Aug. 1, Hama: a bit of that "crisis" they talk about
It's not mentioned here (dimmed background), but this was just a few days after militants overran parts of Hama city on July 31. They killed dozens of policemen and soldiers, dumping some in the river early on August 1, throats sliced, cursing the dead "soldiers" and shouting Allahu Akbar. One man asks people not to film, but at least 3 do, and the one vide was published. An opposition activist confirmed this incident to CNN, warning there were Al-Qaeda elements involved after returning from the fight in Iraq, and it might turn their rebellion ugly (or might already have, depending).

Already back in early June, 2011, there was a massacre by the "Free Syrian Army" in Jisr al-Shughour, claiming the lives of around 120 security members and an unknown number of civilians. Theories were floated that this was a regime crime against those who "refused to shoot protesters," perhaps involving Hezbollah extremists… but it wasn't as clear on that as Hama a couple months later.

Hama is the city most-associated with alleged regime massacres by the president's father Hafez Al-Assad, and was recently inspected by US ambassador Robert Ford in early July and found to be totally militant-free. So we can be pretty clear who's responsible for the deaths of July 31: 24 members of the security forces, and around 80 men and older boys, allegedly all civilian. The 80 almost has to include some fighters killed in their ambitious coordinated attacks on different areas. That toll also might also include civilians killed by Islamists for their support to the government, or just at random in order to blame the government for the biggest death toll possible. It might also include innocents killed by the government, but their motive remains unclear...

Over 100 dead in a day was a minor milestone in the public mind. That third digit was more in the interest of the opposition seeking help than in the government trying to prevent that. Because as it was reported and widely accepted, the Syrian government killed over 100 "people" in Hama that day in an unprovoked massacre, crushing the protests with snipers and tanks in a senseless, one-sided slaughter. It seems the events of July 31 left president Obama "appalled," and seeing the "true nature" of the "Assad regime," starting a process that led to the statements of August 18 demanding the Syrian president step down in some unclear "transition." (NYT)

This would the standard toxic situation over the following years. Naturally, authorities hoped to shut it down as early as possible. "[S]o as to speed up putting an end to the crisis,” the intercepted dispatches say, authorities hatched a unified plan that night, and in fact, Taub writes:
"This policy became the linchpin of the CIJA’s case against officials in the Syrian regime. ... For the CIJA, identifying suspects was easy, Wiley said, because “their names are all over those documents.”
So let's take a look at what they were able to get out of this August 5 centerpiece. as Taub writes, the idea was "to target specific categories of people." "First," it was "protest organizers and “those who tarnish the image of Syria in foreign media.”" Next and finally, it was whoever else, if anyone; Taub doesn't specify any other target types. Here's just how he wrote it:
Emma Reynolds wrote for news.com.au about this in a similar vein, citing Taub:
By August 2011, Syria’s shadowy Central Crisis Management Cell revealed that they were concerned about “laxness” and poor coordination from the authorities dealing with insubordinates. They arranged for regular raids on opposition activists and critics of Syria in foreign media. Their coordination messages paint a clear picture of how orders for what happened to people like Mazen al-Hamada came all the way from the top.
Al-Hamada was one such activist, arrested while smuggling baby formula to a woman in Damascus in March 2012 and bundled into a car....

They weren't going after any armed groups or anyone else, just people struggling for freedom or smuggling food. Dissent, humanity: shut-down. Militants: ignored? Non-existent?

My suspicion then was the parts about demonstrations were really in there, but alongside the real worries about militants running amok, and the two classes might even be linked in a way that makes sense. That's totally not what the memos said, according to the CIJA via Ben Taub and the New Yorker. But I never did trust those assurances.

What They Were Saying the Next Day
We've still never been allowed a view of any original documents from that August 5 meeting of the Central Crisis Management Cell (CCMC). But now we can see a memo dated the next day and referring to the CCMC meeting in question. Demonstrators, foreign media, wanted persons, clearing and holding areas, and then explanation of the regional investigative committees are all included - and so are all the surrounding parts left out of the painting shown to millions back in 2016. Thanks to an online video from Spanish paper El País, we can see the whole page translated to English, and the Arabic original to a lesser degree, and do some comparison.

Building the case against Assad’s regime
El País, June 15, 2018
https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/12/inenglish/1528799235_796657.html
This is apparently a September fax of an August 18 (forwarding?) of an August 6 memo, discussing the previous day's crisis cell meeting. It was directed, on the 6th, to regional Ba'ath party branches in the governorate of Hama (listed first), and also of rural Damascus, Deir Ezzor, Homs, Idlib, and Daraa (in that order) - the places the Islamist insurgency had taken root at the time. It also tried hard in Baniyas, but was contained already. Aleppo remained mostly peaceful at this time. But the first one listed here is Hama, which had witnessed the massacre of soldiers and police a week earlier.

Yellow highlighted by El País, about the same points early shared all alone. The red underlining added by me shows important points they left out in that process.

The relevant paragraph (middle, with highlighting) does mention demonstrations and demonstrators 4 times - at least per the provided translation. But this memo also mentions - as I suspected - "armed gangs" that cause "human and material losses" by vandalism, looting, pillaging, attacking state institutions, and "killing and terrorizing citizens." This all required so-called "security operations" that were expected to incur "losses," perhaps related to the weapons they hoped to seize some of.

They also decided some soldiers had a way of losing their weapons to the militants, or being "reluctant" to fully face the "armed groups." These might even be sympathizers, people willing to defect, sabotage things, or kill their fellow soldiers. This is probably the "laxness" referred to in Taub's painted version, but there seems to be a bit more we still can't see.

Arrest THEM = people wanted for violent offenses. "Especially those" is a subset of THEM, so violent offenders who also incite demonstrations, etc. However much sense that makes, it's what this translation says. The wording is odd, and raises questions about the translation, which we'll return to shortly. But it does not say go after people who just organize peaceful protests or just talk smack about Damascus.

"Clean every sector of those wanted persons" starts the next paragraph by referring to the same - violent militants, and "especially" those organizing demonstrations and smear campaigns as well.

So the earlier presentation cut all the red parts above, in their selective quotation of the yellow, just as I suspected. Officials were worried about the militants like they should have been, and it was the main issue. But tt didn't come through in the painted picture of a calm crackdown on peaceful dissent, inviting outsiders to arm the emergent "Free Syrian Army" to "defend the protesters."


2 More Docs, More on the Violent Demonstrators
A total of three documents at least are partly shown in the El País video: the other two have dates and document numbers redacted (why?), but may be contemporaneous supporting documents.

One is an undated request for information, from interrogations and potentially involving torture. Methods aren't explained, but they sought more information from "detainees who incited demonstrations" and also those "who had contacts with foreign bodies," perhaps including "plotters" and/or "bodies which took part in funding and arming demonstrators." Here again, the kind of "demonstrations" they're concerned with involve weapons. They also wondered about the "volume of funding and armaments" going to those "demonstrators" and their origins. So they mean weapons supply, not "arming them with knowledge" or something.

The other shared document is an undated arrest warrant, directed to local commanders in Daraa governorate, asking for the arrest of six people (names removed), as soon as possible. This adds nothing - it's the reason they were wanted that matters. Are they armed militants, or demonstrators and image tarnishers? Above, and left out of news stories, the people were wanted for the crimes of vandalism, killing, and assault on the citizenry and government institutions, and some of THOSE were "especially" wanted for additional media-type activities. Are these 6 just regular wanted, or "especially" so?

And even that question doesn't matter totally;
demonstrations, propaganda, media and "human rights NGO" contacts, and weapons and sectarian mayhem, are all seen with good reason as part of a unified package, a coordinated attack on their country seeking a repeat of the Iraq and Libya regime-change scenarios. Unauthorized demonstrations, at which unauthorized gunmen shoot people and blame the government, was a serious problem. All aspect of such a machine would need shut down.

The Local Coordinating Committees (LCC) is named. Publicly, they organize, promote, track peaceful street protests, but they also work with military groups and disseminate their reports, and had nearly every martyr of regime brutality reported with video of the body, as if they had a direct line with the angel of death. The Syrian authorities will have rightly pegged the LCC as organizing both military and propaganda activities. Such people were tarnishing the image of Syria, by committing crimes - often hideous ones -that were being video-recorded and blamed on Syria with great frequency and alarming success.

The main translation issue is with what the LCC organize: protests as implied, or a more vague type of "events." See below.

There's no mention of arresting baby food smugglers like Mazen Hamada, and no order to implement a baby food embargo in the first place. And still nowhere have we seen any orders to enforce the inhumane conditions on detainees Hamada and others describe, or to systematically exterminate thousands of them, as the "Caesar photos" claim to show.


Translation Issues?
I don't usually presume translation issues without a specific reason - it's quite possible, but the main issue seems to be what's edited out - redacted or just not shared. I found one Arabic translator so far on Twitter with time to help.

First, a minor issue: a partial view of undated request is visible enough
https://twitter.com/amin251/status/1037326833988108288
https://twitter.com/amin251/status/1037346529906970624
"the detainees who incited demonstrations and had contacts with ... plotters, and bodies which took part in funding..." In the translation, the "and" becomes an "or" for a more inclusive reading of who's "especially" wanted.  But either way, it's the class of crimes they were detained over, and information was sought.

More importantly, we get some decent views of the (ostensible) Arabic original of that August 18 fax of the August 6 memo. Below is a full-page view, but small and, as it happens, the important paragraph in the middle is underneath the animated titling for "ARREST WARRANTS." That paragraph is also shown scrolling by larger in such a way all 8 lines can be taken and reassembled (below). 

An "Arab Ba'ath Communist Party" is mentioned at the top - as Amin251 explains, should be Socialist
"الاشتراكي = Socialist. "Communist"  would be written "شيوعي " The name of Syria's ruling party is Ba'ath Arab Socialist, and that's who the memos and translators refer to, so there's no real contention, and it's not a directly important issue. It might show a right-wing bias on the part of the translator, inserting "socialist = commie tyrant" messages in the translation. That might lead to further distortions, but hopefully we can see these directly. 

With tips from Amin and my own careful looking... here are the words in play for those odd instances of "demonstrations."

المظاهرات
phonetic: almuzaharat:
The usual word for public demonstrations (plural). Also translates like manifestation, display, etc. It does similar in English. It appears zero times in the memo. The singular form is about the same, doesn't appear either.


مظاهرة الاحتجاج
ph: muzaharat alaihtijaj
A phrase for protest demonstration (singular - plural is barely different). This also doesn't appear (that I caught)

المتظاهرين
ph: almutazahirin
The usual word for demonstrators and/or protesters, ones who participate in the above. This appears where it should, being translated as "demonstrators." Good there.

 تظاهر
tazahar - to demonstrate. this appears twice, suggesting a bit of paraphrasing for 2 instances (rather than "demonstrations" it says "?? demonstrate(ing/ed)." I'll see about the exact wording for each, if possible 

 التظاهرات
altazahurat
with one loose quote-mark attached, Google Translate gives "demonstrations" with alternates readings: feint, simulation, pretense. Hmmm. With the quote mark cut, it's just "events" and no hints provided. Amin251 notes the usual word for "events" in a general, and maybe military sense, is:
الأحداث (al'ahdath).
But this word doesn't seem to appear. This other word is unusual, but apparently valid, maybe a regional thing, or personal choice of the author. Its exact meaning here isn't totally clear, but the context involves weapons, death, and crisis. It happens to look like the usual word for demonstrations, and it can also mean the same thing. In context of the other words, it likely does, but perhaps not...

Here's where these words appear in the paragraph. Translated paragraph repeated below for comparison.


So far, it appears the translation is ok, despite the appearance. But I still have questions about the wording around the 2 cases of demonstrate, and the LCC's "events", the "especially those..." part, and how the whole run-on sentence here suggests lumping that might be inaccurate (and/or issues, etc.).

Such things can tweak the wording to support the reading you want. But mainly, the only way to make this document fit the agenda of the day is to just quote the parts about "demonstrations" and pretend there was no talk of militants at all. Every nation has a right to defend itself from armed insurgency, and the point of this exercise is to prove the Syrian state was way past its rights and had to know that. So the CIJA just cut the parts that disprove their case before they offer a couple stray lines they like as supposed proof. Clearly showing it with minor redactions isn't a good idea (see my effort below). The best plan they took was to present just the yellow lines and pretend that's all that mattered.

Follow-Up (Sept. 28)
This point deserves some. I finally asked the author, after noticing he is on Twitter, and how he won the Pulitzer Center's RFK prize for journalism in 2017 for this work "chronicling a team of international investigators who smuggled secret Assad regime files documenting torture and other war crimes out of Syria." It was a dramatic read, but too bad it relies on a dubious alleged witness and grossly mischaracterized documents.

So I asked him "any idea how the red-underlined parts here went missing in your article's version of this "linchpin"? It seems to be a plan to stop "armed groups" killing people." (follow-on tweet to correct to "armed gangs.") No response expected, but expectations can be interestingly dashed.

Update, October 13: Even with another nudge added, I still received no response prior to drafting the 21st Century Wire version of this story, where I conclude: "I asked Ben Taub about the details missing in his article, but so far he has not responded. It’s not clear if he or – more likely – the CIJA made the decision to delete the militants and distort this evidence. But someone did."