July 17, 2022
Introduction
This story broke a while back, and I initially took it as meaningful. Since it isn't, an explanation of how seemed less urgent. But for what it's worth, I finally finished this.
I'm not all clear on the story, but he's said to be in the hands of Donetsk Peoples' Republic; "A criminal case has been opened against Andrew Hill and two other mercenaries in the DPR, the prosecutor's office has taken it to court. They are charged under several articles, including "commission of a crime by a group of persons", "forcible seizure of power or forcible retention of power", "mercenarism"." (RIA) But there are 3 famously on trial there and facing possible death sentences - a Moroccan and two Brits, neither of which is Hill (and both of whom sound like Ukrainian citizens, not mercenaries). And Hill was captured by the Russians, it seems, after he surrendered in the Mykolaev region, nowhere near Donetsk. "On April 29, the Russian Defense Ministry published footage of a survey of Hill, who surrendered to Russian servicemen in the Nikolaev region." That apparently means Mykolaiv Oblast (it's what came up when I plugged that into Google maps) (TASS, June 8)
Since then, it sounds like Hill has been informing on his former comrades - "who also committed crimes against civilians of the Republics for money." as a Pravda report of 3 May put it.
"According to him, there was a real hell in Ukraine. He tells about mercenaries who came here from all over the world, who for the sake of money are ready to commit any crime.
Hill admitted that they came here not so much for money, but also because they have fun. Not knowing languages, they maim and kill everyone. The Briton has never seen such cruelty before.
"Foreign mercenaries are torturing the Russian military and pro-Russian activists. They cut off their fingers and torture them... Most support Nazi ideology. They proudly wear tattoos with swastikas and SS emblems. Unfortunately, I was on the side of these terrible people, and unwittingly, I became an accomplice to crimes, "the Briton justifies to VGTRK correspondent Andrei Rudenko."
So he could be seen as a defector, a whistleblower, even a late-blooming hero, to save his own skin or otherwise. Details being unclear ... prisoners of war are not supposed to called on the make public, politically useful statements like those now coming from Mr. Hill. - for various reasons including because they could just be coerced. Both sides do it anyway.
The same might apply to, say, journal entries - it's extremely easy to coerce paper to say what you want. Andrew Hill's journal is said to contain some interesting information regarding the infamous "Bucha Massacre" of hundreds of civilians. But as I'll show, it probably reveals nothing except that Hill didn't know much about events in Bucha.
The Story as Presented
KHERSON, June 8 - RIA Novosti. The coordinates of the burial place, presumably civilians, were found in the diary of British mercenary Andrew Hill ...
"East or south. Mass grave of 280 civilians (with coordinates 50.521318; 30.204626). ... There is still no income, savings are drying up," one of the pages of the diary, which the agency reporter managed to get acquainted with, says.
A little paraphrasing, but that's about it. See below. "When exactly the entry was made is not indicated in the diary." Also it's not clear at all these bits are part of a single entry or related at all.
"According to Google online maps , the indicated coordinates correspond to the address: Ukraine , Kiev region , between the cities of Irpin and Bucha , possibly Vokzalnaya Street (VAGZALNAJA) in Irpen." Vokzalnaya street in Bucha ... it's often given (by me anyway) and usually mapped as Vokzalna, but is usually pronounced Vokzalnaya - He probably heard this information spoken that way, and hence the phonetic spelling. (It's also a word - вокзальна - meaning "station," for a variety of other possible meanings: "Here is the station" of something ... but then he would probably write "station.").
But Vokzalna runs south across the Buchanska river into Irpin, where it's called Soborna street. It's nowhere near the coordinates given.
The actual journal pages were shown later - for example https://t.me/ua_tribunal/1096. Here are the 2 pages in question. Note how VAGZALNAJA is attached to a little diagram or map.
for example https://t.me/ua_tribunal/1096
"Apparently the numbers are the coordinates of the as yet undiscovered mass grave. ... This is the diary of a punisher." Imaginative. I started that way myself.
Reading One: Taking the False Lead
The given coordinates come out, in degrees and minutes, as: 50°31'16.7"N, 30°12'16.7"E - Google Maps puts the pin here, almost exactly on the smaller of 2 trees right there along what seems like a minor canal running along Zakhidna street in Irpin (not remotely similar to Vagzalnaja). Below right: in broader context, the Vokzalna attack site indicated.
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I wondered if there was a recent view of this area in some drone videos of Irpin I had recently found. One of them indeed shows the area, at about 11:05. Ирпень до и после. Кадры с воздуха - YouTube (widest possible composite view below).
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The 2 trees at bottom middle here, near the corner of this fenced area, are the same ones mentioned above - the smaller one almost exactly marks the coordinates Hill gives. The tracks we see are probably from a large vehicle, seeming like one set going one-way - probably does include at least an in and out, maybe a few of them, just combining nicely. What's odd is how clean the space the trucks went to was left - no weeds, no marks, just freshly leveled soil, starting right where the tracks fade away and filling most of the lot.
Uncannily ... this seems to explain the J-shaped curve he drew. The meaning of the perpendicular line and circle aren't so clear, but perhaps the edges of the mass grave and the truck turn-around at the corner where bodies were offloaded.
The excavated and re-filled area seems to have a clear edge this side and along the edges, with the far end more patchy - that's where the dug up soil was piled before the re-filling. That's work space, not grave area. Exact cut-off unclear, but I estimate the size of the SUGGESTED excavation as at least 2,000 square meters (~50 meters of that length and the full width: 35-40 meters at one end, 45-50m at the other). That could fit ... around 900 bodies? The space needn't all be used.
To label this with the street name Vokzalna ... where a roadblock was made back on February 27, to devastating effect, almost surely killing some locals, despite the denials. It couldn't be 280 residents, but maybe as Hill heard it, a big portion of civilian bodies secretly buried came from that street. And maybe it included the dozens of Russian troops probably killed in that attack and left behind.
I first leapt to this reading (Twitter) even though it didn't make much sense, because it briefly seemed to make sense, and finding that lot with the j-shaped road egged me on. But others helped talk me out of it.
Qoppa found another view of the spot from the other angle, showing a dirt road inside the fence, likely connecting to other roads from the Bucha side, or at least to tracks like those visible left of center. Craters just past the lot seem to originate from Irpin, maybe against vehicles trying to cross the field. But it's not clear who or when or crossing which nway; Russians controlled both sides at some points, and Ukraine held this side before and after.
But both Qoppa and Val found it too open an area for mass grave digging or filling, with those craters illustrating the point. Someone would see the process and probably film it, or even violently disrupt it. I granted that but it still seemed possible, if unlikely, considering the unusual scene; why does a construction crew in Irpin take a road clear around to the far corner, then drive to the middle and apparently do nothing but smooth the dirt? That still seems like an open question, but not a heavy one.
Reading Two: the Good One
Breaking down the elements of Hill's journal entries:
- mass grave
- 280 civilians
- "east or south"
- map/drawing
- VAGZALNAJA label
- coordinates
These may be just written at different times for different reasons with no connection, or they might connnect in a cople of different ways.
Starting with mass grave and 280 civilians: as Val suggested, the most likely source for both is an early statement from Bucha's mayor Anatoly Fedoruk on April 2 “In Bucha, we have already buried 280 people in mass graves.” AFP, via Al-Jazeera. He could have other reasons for writing that, but as we'll see, the other points support this reading; he was just copying down things he heard about the official story of Bucha.
Next the apparent map. There are 2 ways to read it: the dumb way above, and as a city level map where one street is plainly enough labeled Vokzalnaya, The cross line would most likely be Yablunska street where civilian bodies were famously found dead - it curves at the west end, and another curve onto a little peninsula in the lake fits even better. If this is such a little map, it would be presented some 45 degrees clockwise from true north. Below I show it rotated 90 degrees to be a bit closer to north orientation.
This overall map rotation - where local south is kind of southeast, might be why he writes "east or south." However at the drawn rotation, southeast = left or west. That part is just unclear to me.
The circle at the intersection marks a well-known spot with no room for a mass grave. But I think he circled it because of something else mayor Fedoruk had said. An interviewer from German DW asked: "The horrific images of mass graves have shocked the world. How many such sites have been found in Bucha?" Fedoruk apparently misunderstood (or I did) and replied with a list of mass killing sites, not mass graves. "Three were discovered in Bucha." One was at 144 Yablunska, where "the Russian occupiers stacked the bodies of people whose hands had been tied behind their backs into piles, like firewood." Another was "in a center for kids, where people with bound hands and bullet wounds." And he said there was a massacre - or a "mass grave" - "on Vokzalna and Yablonska Streets" apparently referring to "mortar alley," the few blocks of Yablunska street where bodies accumulated from different and murkier violence over March.
So Hill was probably just following Fedoruk's statements about 280 civilians killed, and a "mass grave" at what sounds like the intersection of 2 streets, which he sketched out, labeling one "Vagzalnaja"
