At the Greek Border: No Turning Back. Get Out!

Adam Larson aka Caustic Logic
March 8-9, 2020
updates March 16

Using the Migration
From the last days of February, thousands of migrants appeared at the Turkish-Greek border,  with others crossing by sea, over the following week rising to the tens of thousands at least. These are largely young men, but also include women and children. It seems a relative few are Syrians' many or most hail fron Afghanistan, with others from Iraq, Morocco, unclear. In one video clip, several are asked where from, all say Afghanistan. One says "We are waiting until we are thousands, and then we will ty to cross the border all together. This way they will be forced to open their border."
https://twitter.com/john_wayne_gr/status/1235390236806524928 (primary source perhaps in time)

Turkish president Recap Tayyip Erdogan had just suffered a major defeat in Syria's Idlib province, with at least 33 of his troops (and reportedly more than twice that many) killed in an airstrike the night of February 27. Being at night, it's likely that was a Russian strike, not a Syrian one. Between that and a follow-on visit with Russia's president Putin, and the US decision it would not back Tukey in some NATO-invoked defense over this, Erdogan saw something written on the wall. It might have involved the "fall of Idlib" and a massive influx of fresh refugees into Turkey - Syrian and foreign fighters, their families, others who insist on evading Syrian government control would want in. Ankara would be hard-pressed to block them out, but Turkey already hosts some 3-4 million refugees, largely Syrians displaced by the years of fighting Ankara eagerly participated in necessitating (flashback to 1st "refugee crisis" in 2011).

In general, as Erdogan saw it, Europe wasn't helping enough in Syria, hadn't fulfilled its promises on finincial aid, and then more specifically Idlib seemed doomed as of the morning of 28 February. That very day, this activist pesident stated executing a bold maneuver to make room for refugees in a dramatic way - put simply as "opening the boder" to Greece and thence Europe, and flooding it all at once by hook or crook.

"Erdogan claimed in early March the numbers of migrants at the Greek border – who include Afghans, Syrian and Iraqis – were far higher than figures provided by officials and reporters at the scene, saying "hundreds of thousands" were already there. "There will be more. Soon, this number will be expressed in millions," he added."
https://www.france24.com/en/20200303-erdogan-warns-europe-to-expect-millions-of-migrants-after-turkey-opens-borders

Turkish interior minister Suleyman Soylu later explained a million would soon pass the Greek border and then "it will cause European governments to fall, crash their stock markets, and destabilize their economies. And there is nothing they can do about it," he claimed to believe.
https://twitter.com/The_Georgios/status/1236711715980611601

After the first tens of thousands found the border closed on the Greek side and suffered a few reported abuses there, including one alleged shooting death (denied, deserves more study), "Turkey is sending elite special operations police to the border to stop Greek officers from driving back people who try to cross over to Europe, Turkish authorities said Thursday." This means, in context, going to enforce their entry, to breach Greece's borders with whatever undocumented people Turkey had flung their way.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/turkey-elite-police-going-to-stop-greece-e2-80-99s-migrant-pushback/ar-BB10O0QY

This doesn't seem to be going well for Erdogan, who faces stiff backlash from all of Europe, and only their most diehard supporters defending what's being called a dangerous "game" that's gone beyond the previous "blackmail." But early in the ensuing spat with Greece, Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu boldly rebuffed protests from Athens: "Look who’s lecturing us on international law! They’re shamelessly throwing tear gas bombs on thousands of  innocents piled at their gates. We don’t have an obligation to stop people leaving our country but #Greece has the duty to treat them as human beings!"
https://twitter.com/MevlutCavusoglu/status/1233756447290384386

This was early on 29 February, just one day in, these photos show thousands piled near the gate, with a few men in the front barely deterred by tear gas just as close to the police guarding the gate. Later we learn their side is also lobbing tear gas at the police, and Turkish police have come to do the same. Some videos show a whole team firing round after round as people follow with buckets full of tear gas refills, and others try and tear down the fences or sneak off to try and cross at an unguarded area along the river. A Turkish army vehicle tried to pull down a section of fence the night of March 6.

https://www.rt.com/news/482018-greek-police-turkey-border/
https://twitter.com/NikKo_ial/status/1236312352091516928
https://www.facebook.com/ajayzening/posts/2773902449371377
https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1236366789841469440

So that tear gas on innocents thing is not a visually obvious crime, and just how do these people get "piled" there so numerously and so quickly?

Facilitating the Migration

Turkish television TRT (Arabic) shows the routes people can now take by land (yellow) and by sea (blue), with no indication of where anyone might try and halt them. There seems no concern about documentation, or any valid obstacles. Erdogan says it's open, and if people find othewise, he can become furious with Greece's inhuman treachery. Also consider this proposed mass-movement at the height of the global coronavirus outbreak, where Iran and now Iraq are badly hit, and one route they were to take is up through Italy, suffering the worst outbreak in Europe.
https://twitter.com/TRTArabi/status/1233396706286415879
http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/File:Path_to_Europe_map_by_TRTArabi.jpeg

The blue lines carry their own stories, but this post focuses on that yellow line to the last town, Erdine, at the borders with Bulgaria (no news there that I've noted) and Greece. There were numerous reports and accusations the Turkish state had facilitated driving "refugees" to the border, aside from many who took their own routes, like public transit to the last town and walking the final stretch. Greek state broadcaster SKAI filed a news report on the 28th featuring many interviews with arriving "refugees" who revealed many were from Afghanistan, and among other things that they had been provided free bus rides provided by Erdogan (as they saw it - officials anyway).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9U7FU8-vRc
Ειδήσεις Βραδινό Δελτίο | Χιλιάδες πρόσφυγες - Έκλεισε το τελωνείο στις Καστανιές
SKAI.gr Feb 28
https://www.skaitv.gr/episode/enimerosi/ta-nea-tou-ska-stis-2000/2020-02-28-19

One man at least says "President Erdogan has arranged for fee bus rides, God bless his soul." This and more from SKAI (w/translated subtitles) and other snippets compiled in a video "The truth about the crisis at the Greek border" posted by Stelios Pestas (Deputy Minister to the Prime Minister and Government Spokesman):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbbu_favdw4
https://twitter.com/SteliosPetsas/status/1235595406031106055

This same video has another man saying "The Turkish authorities drove us to the border and told us to cross," and also shows a brief video of a line of four busses trailed by other, including apparent military, vehicles. Dated 29 February.

Turkish mayor Mustafa Yalcin tweeted an offer by "our munucipality" (unclear which) for free bus rides for "irregular migrants who want to move to European countries,"  giving two daily departure times (11:00 and 21:00) and an application phone number. (same video)

"Free buses to the Syrian migrants who want to go to #Europe, buses taking people from #Istanbul city to the borders with Greece and Bulgaria." One minute video: Many seen boarding a bus, some with backpacks are asking questions of a woman in a tan hijab who knows more. Seveal reporters are on site, including from CNN.
https://twitter.com/HusamHezaber/status/1233356055813480448

Jared Wall: "If anyone wants a free bus ticket to Greece, the news is reporting there are busses from Esenler bus station. This is all quite...unprecedented."
https://twitter.com/JaredWall01/status/1233310955242708993

Many, especially able-bodied and adventurous young men, have gone voluntarily for the economic opportunities mentioned by a man claiming to be from Afghanistan (black hood, SKAI report), but he also says he and others ("we") were jailed in Turkey for one month until "today" when the police not only released them but "police brought us here and told us that the gates are opened."
https://twitter.com/Hunter__1450/status/1234322543907086338

Forcing the Migration?

There were transparent efforts to deny the official movement of "refugees." For example, Gulnur Aybet, an adviser to President Erdogan is quoted as saying on or before March 2: "we have said people who wish to leave can do so on their free will, we are not sort of transporting them, we are not forcing them to go. They’re leaving on their free will. It’s exactly and entirely up to the European Union as to how they want to deal with people who are arriving on their doorstep on their free will. It’s absolutely rubbish to be blaming Turkey for this when Turkey has actually done so much for refugees.”
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1249723/turkey-news-greece-border-syria-migrant-crisis-eu-latest-news-erdogan

She's clear the state is not transporting them, and also not forcing them. But why even bring up the latter - in fact four times? This might be a slip that they were both facilitating and forcing the migration, and she had advised they deny the latter and claim the migration was all by free will, if that issue ever comes up.

Everyone can see Erdogan's regime has weaponized the refugees for political gain, but just how they were so effectively fielded might require further measures, and we may see glimpses of these in action.

Refugees forcibly transported to border, Ankara Bar Association claims
DuvaR English, March 4, 2020
https://www.duvarenglish.com/human-rights/2020/03/04/refugees-forcibly-transported-to-border-ankara-bar-association-claims/

"Around 300 migrants at Ankara’s Akyurt Repatriation Center were transported to the border against their will on the night of Feb. 29" 

Ankara Bar Association’s Migrant Rights Center Chair Sadık Onur Gelbal said “We were informed by colleagues who witnessed it first hand that on the night of February 29, migrants were forced onto buses and involuntarily transported to the border." “The migration management officials emptied out the repatriation center with six buses,” Gelbal said. The force used apparently wasn't absolute - a reported seven somehow resisted and were still at the center. But the effort to clear the center apparently was total; only those few resisted, none were left without resistance, and the total number removed and presumably sent to the Greek border was given broadly as 250-300. 

One example of what could achieve that was an extra-convincing appeal to board the busses - backed with some coercion and a lot of deception - that a victim might later call a "police lie." Keep this in mind.

One attorney reported their client had been forced to depart despite having an ongoing lawsuit. In fact that might have helped the decision to get rid of them.  Another layer "was kept from meeting with their client" during the operation, and found the center virtually empty when they went to complain later. Yet another was called in the middle of the night by a client saying: “they’re taking me away by force.” That attorney said “When we went there that night, no officials came to talk to us.”

A provided photo shows several busses lined up outside what's said to be the Akyurt Repatriation Center on the night of the 29th. I'm not clear if this means the sun would next rise on Feb. 29 or March 1 - it sounds more like the latter, but these might be the same four busses we saw above escorted by military trucks, in daylight and reportedly on the 29th.

So people were allowed to go if willing, directly moved if willing, release from jail and moved, and others only because they were tricked or forced into boarding the busses. Now we turn to how some of them were and weren't gotten back OFF the busses.

March 5, Mekut Mallet: Turkish police military beat and force refugees to cross Greek border at gun point
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpnB4fg56Fc

March 4, Manoto News: Turkish police threaten with weapons #پناهجویان To the Greek border (translated from Persian)
https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/status/1235196271180177408?s=20

This is a fascinating video we're grateful for and curious about, and we hope the videographer is safe. My guess is these few resisted a bit like the 7 back at Aykurt center and were finally given up on and taken back, where they were able to post this video and stay safe after that and forever.

A young man in black with sunglasses (labeled "policeman"), given yellow quotes, urges "Go on, get off the bus! You are going to the other side!" Another man in black-red sweater described as "military officer" then steps in and urges the people to disembark, explaining: "the Turkish military will take you to the Greek side by boat." Some don't want to go, protest that they have children who shouldn't be forced to go on this dangerous crossing. They don't want to go to Greece, a man says. The officer asks "why did you come here then?" That's either not clearly answered OR answered with "unjust! Police lie!"

The military officer waves the driver off the bus, then loudly insists "everyone is going to get out now. I will beat up the ones who don't," pulling out his pistol as if to make the point. "Out! Get out!" he shouts, smacking their backs like cattle. When they still don't all leave after a few seconds, he shouts louder and cocks his pistol near a boy's head, as if to shift the message. "There is no going back from here on. Get out! Get out!" That boy and some others rush off, but others, including the person filming, remain. An apparent clock at the font of the bus had said 17:42, and the sunlight appears fairly low, later afternoon, of whatever exact day this happened (NOAA solar calculator gives azimuth: 246.68, elevation: 14.03 for this time on March 1st - an hour and 23 minutes before sunset. I don't suppose that matters, but I did look it up).

The "military officer" has the a pistol with a Turkish flag decal on the handle's butt. The  "police officer" holds (a taser?) and has a police nightstick on his side, the word POLIS on his trousers, and "Turk" on one shoulder of his black jacket, a "Grey Wolves" insignia on the other. Both officers appear quite young, probably under 30. They may be part of the new wave of military and police Erdogan has rushed into the field to fill the massive vacancies created in his frequent purges of the security sector for suspected "Gulenists."

The Pestas Truth video includes a Syrian man still on a bus in the dark somewhere and filmed by another with "Advice to other Syrians in Turkey: don't think of leaving through the (Turkish) state, because it is all lies. They throw us in the buses and they throw us in the lands."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbbu_favdw4

Another possibly relevant video was posted by a Αριστερά 2Κ and claimed to show "Turkish soldiers brutally beating up migrants." The poor-quality video is shot at a long distance, largely through the branches of a tree. On-screen captions explain "immigrants who attempt to go back are violently beaten by Turkish soldiers & are pushed again towards the border."

https://twitter.com/left2kolou/status/1235984711744458752

Some five possible soldiers in a uniform light color (green boxes here) are punching and kicking a man in dark clothes (red box), especially when he tries to move towards th left; they want him to walk to the right. At one point they trip him so he falls, but mostly he stands and refuses their commands.  Two people in the foreground are laying down and urged to stay down, until the soldiers are distracted beating the other, when they stand and pick up their bags. The video cuts there and they're gone, apparently having run back to the left. The man the soldiers  were pushing manages to walk and then run through them and off the left side of the fame. Perhaps they had just given up on those few.

A pro-Erdogan reply denied that reading: "Lying became your character. These images are not from Turkey. Taken in Hungary." Even after a couple of requests, that person offered no basis for this claim. And coincidentally, a fake news photo used by the Turkish side was from Hungary, 2015. And why were military men there forcing other people with backpacks there walk a certain direction in a field, at another time with barren trees?
https://twitter.com/Amreenrajavi/status/1234789102861422592

Other Possible Compulsions
Video posted March 1 shows #Erdogan supporters who are mostly from "Grey Wolves" far-right & fascist organization attacking workplaces & homes of #Syrian refugees in south of #Turkey beating them & looting their shops. They attack Syrian refugees to force them to leave #Turkey & invade #Greece!
https://twitter.com/LilithQoS/status/1234354419820568576
The militant extremist and Erdogan-supporting Turkish organization "The Grey Wolves" has been put into action.
They are now attacking migrant homes and businesses (vandalizing & looting) across south-western Turkey in an attempt to force migrants to pack up and leave for #Greece
https://twitter.com/BasedPoland/status/1234443837096984576

Video includes shouts that include Allahu Akbar, others I don't know. The two-finger Grey Wolves signal is widely displayed. Hundreds of them have converged here, streaming fom at least two visible busses that brought them here in a clearly coordinated campaign. Also note a lot of smoke in the area: something is burning (perhaps businesses?)

Another video from an upper floor shows two people being beaten separately by a small mob in the street below.  Samsun Haber.com video leads to the article going with it - March 2, by Tahir Ömer ÇOKLUK. The video is unavailable there, but preview images match, and it's described: "A group of young Syrian refugees attacked in Samsun İlkadım Zafer Mahallesi. Some Syrian refugees were injured during the incident that citizens tried to separate."
https://www.samsunhaber.com/ozel-haber/samsun-karisti-multecilere-saldiri-h54380.html

Initial view: a tweet mentioning "the families that recently had their businesses and homes destroyed by the Grey Wolves (extremist Turkish militants) and forced to leave Turkey" among the refugees, saying "Millions of Greeks understand their position." (or should/could understand).
https://twitter.com/kaskomplex/status/1235616835422351361

Similar street attack: "They first asked him if he is Turk or Not. When he responded that he is not Turk, then they started beating him!" A previous tweet claimed it showed a man beaten to death, which seems nowhere near true, though it is brutal.
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1235683721765937154
However this seems to be a dated video; people are dressed in more summer clothes, no coats to be seen, as in the other footage. But this is a view of the kind of violence that's happening again.
Similar street attack: They first asked him if he is Turk or Not. When he responded that he is not Turk, then they started beating him!
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1235683721765937154
However this seems to be a dated video; people are dressed in more summer clothes, no coats to be seen, as in the other footage. But this is a view of the kind of violence that's happening again.

In both these scenes, other locals intervene. In the latter, a single older woman tenaciously shields the young man being pummeled; however far they kick him down the street, she's there again, trying to stop them. They try not to hit women, these thugs, but they sure as hell don't let them affect their thugging. This was on display again a few days later on International Women's Day, March 8. In Istanbul, police were sent to shut down the protest, and arrested 34 women who resisted. But the cops did let their shields take a few hits with no overt violence I saw, and it does seem they avoided using that dread tear gas (maybe because the country's whole supply had been sent to attack Greek border guards?)
https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1236738984207777794
https://twitter.com/abdbozkurt/status/1236888039890333696

Update, March 16:
One further support from an article that was published at en24.news, then removed, with no other postings I could find.
https://www.en24.news/u/2020/03/migrants-the-last-moments-of-mohamed-killed-by-the-greek-army.html
 A white fabric, like a talisman. Monday, mid-morning, it was not enough to protect Mohamed Al Arab. This Syrian from Aleppo fled the martyr city five years ago, to leave behind the war and its horrors. His fate caught up with him on the border between Turkey and Greece, which he was trying to cross illegally with several dozen other migrants. … “The projectile, for me a rubber bullet, hit him in the head, sighs Razakhan. He immediately collapsed."
...
In the early morning, groups form and advance to cross the border together in the woods. This is where Ali meets Mohamed. “He walked in front of me, sometimes at the head of the group, remembers Ali. We were like on an island: the smugglers announced that there would be no possible return.
...
(After the purported shooting) Confusion has spread among Greek soldiers,” says Ali. In the process, while the soldiers are firing in the air this time, the group backs up. We must talk about ten minutes for the smugglers to agree to make them cross the river on a canoe, as well as to Mohamed. Not without paying 3 euros per person. Some people prefer to swim back.

A March 2 story in The Guardian follows a group led by "young Algerians" that seems to successfully cross the border at night, with this advice "If one of the party fell or was struck down, don’t wait for them, just run, they said." This piece also includes a somewhat contradictory line: "By the evening, it was all too overwhelming for some, who decided to abandon this attempt and to head back to Istanbul." It's not clear if they were able to go back, or if the same standards applied to everyone.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/02/just-run-on-the-turkey-greece-border-as-refugees-try-to-break-through

Then later, on March 13, the New York Times reported some of the migrants were being bussed back to Turkey, in a sign that Erdogan was backing off his threatened invasion, or perhaps giving a limited impression before ramping it back up.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/europe/turkey-greece-border-migrants.html?smid=tw-nytimesworld&smtyp=cur
https://ahvalnews.com/migrants/turkey-backs-down-greek-border-nyt
From this: "The ordeal was “the first-ever refugee exodus, albeit a limited one, fully organized by one government against another,” Marc Pierini, a former European Union envoy to Turkey, told the New York Times.
“The problem is that because of the blackmail used by Turkey, getting an agreement from the European Council is going to be more difficult,” said Pierini, who is currently an analyst for Carnegie Europe, a research organisation."

Who was Behind the Killing of Ambassador Karlov?

Who was Behind the Killing of Ambassador Karlov?
By Adam Larson (Caustic Logic)
December 24-26, 2016
last edits Jan. 2, 2017

Poser directed by John Badham.

Who, if anyone, directed Altintas?

The Killer and his Motive

So, as we've all heard, an off-duty Turkish riot policeman named Mevlut Mert Altintas (WP) recently killed Russia's ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Karlov (WP), then died in a firefight with the police. The assassin's name, if not his victim's, is briefly a household one, and certainly his image in the iconic AP photo is now widely known. (I couldn't find a copy, had to use this similar image as a stand-in... well, I had to anyway). 

He's iconic, I guess, of the threat of Sunni extremist terrorism, and perhaps Turkish ultra-nationalism. Don't let the clean-shaven chin fool you. This is the mindset of an ISIS terrorist. Speaking to the world at large, he told reporters after the killing “as long as our lands are not safe (meaning occupied by Islamists – he was referring to their loss of east Aleppo), you will not taste safety.” He was talking to you, and me, and everyone else.

He may have inspired some others. Consider: Altintas killed Karlov on December 19 around 8:15 PM in Turkey (or perhaps 7:15, I've heard both). At 8:02 PM in Germany - that is, about an hour or two later - a claimed ISIS terror attack killed 12 and wounded dozens at a market in Berlin. The two lining up like that helped clarify (at least to most people) Altintas was a terrorist-type to detest, more than a hero for Aleppo's people, or in the great struggle against Russia.

That coincidence could be nothing but one, or someone inspired by the comments to remove some safety, or perhaps even a coordinated two-part event. The details of who was behind each crime matter greatly, perhaps even more so in tandem. But here, we will deal only with the man photographed in the act, not the one who allegedly left his ID papers under the seat of a stolen truck before “fleeing” (mysteries to be resolved elsewhere...) Here we ask who, if anyone, directed the actions of the assassin Altintas.

As usual, this is (will be) a little long. The most important parts, I think, are in the last section.

A Gulen-CIA “Extremist” Plot?

Turkish authorities say Altintas had ties to the Gulen movement, followers of moderate Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, self-exiled in the United States since 1999 (Wikipedia). It seems he and his affiliates may run a large and capable network inside Turkey and out, so far keeping a check on the extremism of president Recap Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling AKP party. They may be behind some of the more important challenges to he AKP, even besides the corruption probe in 2013 widely ascribed to Gulen.  * (see note below)

Erdogan is currently trying to purge all suspected Gulenists from the government and society, calling them terrorists, and blaming everything bad on them as an excuse to do that, like the supposed coup attempt in July (see below). Gulen denied involvement in that, as well as the assassination of ambassador Karlov. Erdogan has even blamed Gulen infiltrators for shooting down the Russian fighter jet on the Syrian border, even though that explains nothing at all about that terrible provocation. Erdogan now insists he's totally sorry those guys shot down Russia's jet, and that the same have now killed their ambassador, and will do whatever might happen next. Arrests will always follow. The purge must continue.

Besides putting Gulen behind the killing, the accusation suggests perhaps the CIA were even deeper behind it (if the US is harboring Gulen, they might be using him as a tool). This, I  think, is the flavoring that's got many anti-imperialist thinkers to accept the charges; it seemed Erdogan was moving towards the resistance camp with Russia and the CIA was out to get him already. This was suggested in July and widely accepted; the US ordered a coup because Erdogan finally apologized to Russia over the jet downing - that was actually by the Gulenist infiltrators (who had prevented Erdogan from apologizing earlier?)

There have been some words and even moves from Turkey that fit with that impression of friendly new relations with Russia, but the sincerity of those moves is unclear, given their black history in the Syrian conflict. Erdogan and his ruling AKP party may just be playing a pro-Russia game, hoping to gain fresh leverage with their cooling Western partners. They recently declared support for Syria's territorial integrity in agreement with Russia and Iran, on the same day as their latest failed effort to steal the city of Bab (near Aleppo) from one proxy (ISIS) with the help of other “moderate Islamist” proxies. 

And it seems highly unlikely Altintas was a Gulenist. This network has recently been dubbed FETO - (Fethallist Extremist Terrorist Organization) by Turkish authorities. Erdogan says there's "no use hiding” that Altintas is a FETO member, meaning they're not the moderates they claim to be, and that the police need to be purged some more. By by public stances anyway Gulen and those he would organize would – presumably, – be mainstream Turkish nationalist, neither leftists nor fans of Kurdish aspirations, Islamic by definition and maybe even Islamist, but with an emphasis on democracy, secular elements, modern education, respect for (or “dialog with”) non-Sunnis, non-Muslims, and even atheists. Gulen opposes Sunni extremism, and Erdogan's Syria intervention, which uses it as a weapon.

Whereas publicly, Erdogan denigrates other religions, backs, arms, and harbors genocidal Sunni terrorist groups in Syria, and spreads their lies about the Syrian and Russian governments. He's laid claim to land in Iraq and Syria, taking advantage of the chaos he largely engineered there to try and seize some. At home, he gathers more power for himself and whittles away at all competitors and democracy itself, behaving, it's increasingly said, like an Ottoman sultan of old.

Altintas appears to be an Islamist angered at the Turkish-backed terrorist groups' loss of East Aleppo. Now which category seems a better fit?

Some outsiders eager to blame the CIA seem convinced Altintas was a Gulenist tool, and they're secretly extremists after all. But Turkish officials don't seem to think their own public would buy the "Allahu Akbar” stuff without some explanation. They claim he was from a secular-leaning background, with Kurdish links, and was just acting like an Erdogan type. The Minister of Interior Affairs declared, as Hizmet news reports, “the radical Islamist clues” Altintas built into his life “were efforts to disguise his links to the (Gulen) movement.” Conversely, Ankara's mayor reportedly suggested the traitor chose Jihadist slogans in order to implicate his and Erdogan's AKP party. (Klippenstein/Blumenthal, AlterNet)

But to me, the act seems too convincing by a few degrees. That would be fanatically good method acting - especially the part where he died. This seems more like a true-life AKP Jihadist.

* I don't feel like re-writing the above, but thanks to my friend CE, I can put this in better context. The main carriers of Turkey's secular tradition are called Kemalists.  These may be behind more of the challenges to Erdogan, and seen as the bigger threat. Gulenists are still Islamists, once linked with Erdogan. Though they still seem to be the moderates among them, they could just be the outsiders. And the Gulen network could well be a CIA tool, and it could also barely matter, with the main fight really being Erdogan vs. the Kemalists.
Altintas is alleged to be part of FETO, which seems to be a fictional boogeyman - in fact FETO could be taken as an acronym for Foes of Erdogan Targeted for Obliteration. Kemalists, Gulenists, and others are all framed as one giant conspiracy.
Kemalists are named after modern Turkey's founder, Kemal Ataturk, whom Erdogan also claims to admire. So maybe that's why he chose to put it all under another Islamist umbrella and not even mention those other guys. The moderate/secular aspects of Gulenism could explain that kind of activity, and the Islamist/CIA part might explain Altintas or any other byproduct of Erdogan's rule. Having clarified that, the rest of the article below stands.

Evidence for Gulen Ties 
The assassin's FETO links aren't just claimed but supported by claimed evidence. However, it's not very convincing.

Everyone “knows” it: President Erdogan declaed Altintas “was a member of the FETO. There is no point in hiding this." (AP) He makes it sound obvious, and cites clues that he presents as obvious. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu reportedly told U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry that both Turkey and Russia "know" that Gulen's movement was behind the attack. (DW) He may have implied that the Americans as well have to know, if not to have approved it. The US too has expressed serious skepticism, and asked for supporting evidence. But they're the alleged plotters here, and its Russia's (public) skepticism that matters more, insisting they don't know anything yet; “it is hardly worth hurrying to any conclusions," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov when, he reminded the Turks that the investigation would find the truth in due time. (DW)

Classes, Literature, Links: An AP report quoted Erdogan saying of Altentas' Gulen links: "from the places he was raised to his connections - that's what they point at." But it seems the better translation for “raised” would be “educated.” German DW quotes the President saying “All his connections, from where he was educated to his links, point to FETO," adding that he took some classes at a school associated with the Gulen foundation. (DW) The person who got him into the school was also linked, some have noted as if it meant much. For all we know his family pressed him into it, he was just taking some extra-good classes, or he was there as a spy for Erdogan.

Pro-government media reported police found pro-Gulen literature that belonged to Altintas. He also had acquaintances who were Gulen sympathizers (DW) This could be planted, or maybe he was doing opposition research.

He's also said to have lived with a lawyer suspected of being Kurdish, suggesting a Gulenist-Kurdish network against AKP's Turkey (Telegraph) But this is extremely speculative and raises as many questions as it tries to answer (and if this lawyer has the initials S.O., he might be a jihadist - see below).

Possible Coup Involvement: perhaps the most compelling clue of direct involvement: “State-run media outlet Anadolu said Altintas took two sick leave days on the day of the attempted coup” of July 15, 2016. (DW) Reports are he did the same on his last day – called in sick, then shot ambassador Karlov. But there's some confusion. As Hurriyet reports:

Altıntaş reportedly took a report of absence for two days after the thwarted coup, even though all police officers were called to duty after July 15.

He was on duty in the southeastern province of Diyarbakır on July 15, but arrived in Ankara on July 16 after obtaining a leave of absence. He stayed in a house in the Demetevler district of the Turkish capital, daily Habertürk reported.

Two days including the 15^th, or two days after, or officials also told Reuters his leave was three days, July 15-17, and FoxNews reports “the government could assert this showed Altintas knew about the coup attempt beforehand,” reports It's also reported he bought the ticket the 15^th, so he must have known by then – but they say he wasn't in Ankara for the main show, travelling there perhaps late on the 15^th,, meaning to be part of some second wave, but just as the effort was failing.

Hurriyet reports “The police chief who allowed him to take the leave of absence, Kahraman Sezer, was arrested after the failed coup attempt over links to the U.S.-based Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen.” That suggests he was in on it, and the guy he sent … “Altıntaş himself was suspended over suspected links to FETÖ on Oct. 4 but was returned to duty on Nov. 16.” He was apparently cleared of suspicion then, at the time. One month later, he shot ambassador Karlov in what they pose as an obvious Gulen plot. This doesn't seem to add up very well.

Furthermore, seen a different way, this mysterious period of activity could be a chilling clue Altintas was a dedicated anti-Gulenist. We'll return to it below (see Coup Plotter?)

Maybe Altintas Directed Himself?

My own initial feeling was this: no one deliberately set this up to blame anyone else. If anyone had, it would more likely be the Erdogan side. But if that were the case, it seems to me they'd have clearer connections and better evidence, instead of relying on the evidence panned above, and having to clumsily arrest his entire family, as if to be sure they all get the story right and "prove" a Gulen link (DW reports 11 family members and friends taken in - I predict they will help illustrate the desired link, or be said to help and that will be close enough).

This looks more like a case of one of Erdogan's own goons (see below) gone amok; he drank a fatal dose of kool-aid, dyed with his own true colors. His crime may line up with the sultan's plans, or complicate them, depending. I don't know what Erdogan's true plans are. If it lines up, obviously some help or direction is still worth considering. But I suspect not. 

In the regard that Erdogan is behind this Islamist and ultra-nationalist menace, at least, he's behind the killing. No one did it to make Erdogans look bad. Erdogan and his fanatical followers just are bad, and this guy shows them for who they are, with no plotting required.

An Al-Qaeda (al-Nusra) Plot?

Or is there a third power behind the act? As Tarek Fatah notes here, Altintas was "acting in solidarity with the defeated Arab jihadis of ISIS and al-Qaida in the Syrian city of Aleppo." He shouted Allahu Akbar as he fired, and “was then heard chanting the unofficial anthem of al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaida. “We are the descendants of those who supported the Prophet Muhammad for jihad.”” 

 

That's Jabhat Al-Nusra (victory front, now calling itself Jabhat Fatah al-Sham), a US-designated terrorist group, now formally separated from al-Qaeda, and as always supported by Erdogan's Turkey to lead the fight in Syria. The Islamist Jaish al-Fatah coalition, which is led by al-Nusra, claimed responsibility for the assassination, according to a letter circulated online (not verified) (TASS, Al-Youm Al-Sabea (Arabic), TurkishMinute) 

 

Douglas Burton, Free Beacon points out how al-Nusra swore to avenge their loss of Aleppo, and seemingly took credit for this. “However," he notes, "Abu Maria al Qahtani, a member of the Shura Council of Fateh al Sham, disavowed the claim, denying his group’s involvement in the assassination, according to Daesh Daily, a war digest.” So they've reportedly claimed and denied it. 

For all we know, they did it and the denial was simply backpedaling after an angry phone call from Erdogan. Or perhaps they really had no part, and Altintas just directed himself. But he did invoke their motto, which could confirm the claim or at least some connection. This could mean Turkish cop Altintas had al-Qaeda/al-Nusra links, of a serious and actionable sort, obviously. Would this be in addition to the Gulen links, or instead of them? 

Evidence for Erdogan Ties

There are the clues suggesting Gulen links, but even more clues Altintas was a supporter or even a direct armed element of the Erdogan camp, secret operations division.

Drifting to Jihad

Where Mevlut Mert Altintas was “raised” was cited, in an (apparent mistranslation), as sign of Gulen links. But in fact it's a weak clue to the contrary. He was born and raised in Söke and, as the UK Telegraph reported, “While Turkey’s western provinces are renowned for their open, more liberal politics, in Söke, the graffiti of right-wing ultra-nationalists mars the walls.” His family was reportedly somewhat secular and pro-Gulen, but the boy would grow up surrounded by conflicting messages. He could turn out different ways, depending.

After being rejected from university twice, he graduated from İzmir Police School in 2014. (Wikipedia) The assassin's father says his son changed, apparently radicalized, after joining the police force. He didn't know of any terrorist links, but Mevlut “started becoming focused on his prayers, more introverted and silent after he became a policeman." He moved with police academy friend named Sercan B. to be roommates in Ankara. Mevlut's step-sister says the same - police school, and especially his friend "S" radicalized the young man - he stopped drinking, prayed 5 times a day, and started learning Arabic. "“He always said he would advance and he would be superior. He was brainwashed and kept away from us. Some people are saying that we raised him that way, but we did not," she said. (Hurriyet)

In Ankara, he attended speeches of hardline salafi preacher Nurettin Yildiz, famed for advocating child marriage, wife-beating, and beheading and dismemberment for Gulenists. However, in the same way I note above for his attending a Gulen school …he could have been doing opposition research, right? Turkish Diken reports (auto-translated)

According to Hürriyet, lawyer S.Ö. And Altıntaş met in Ankara during the conversations of Nurettin Yildiz. Accordingly, S.Ö., SB and Altıntaş were attending conversations of Nurettin Yıldız in Hacı Bayram Mosque in a house in Etlik and Batıkent in Ankara.

(SB might be Sercan B, his roommate. Is S.O. The suspected Kurd lawyer and other roommate?)

More direct would be his contacts with Islamists running militias in Syria. Altintas reportedly contacted Murat Oduncu, from a Salafi group called 'Kurtuba Youth Movement' in Syria. Twitter messages reportedly show Altintas sparked contact, and they met and talked. As Google-translated, and as I could make sense of that, Diken reports Altintas wanted to leave police duty and take an active role fighting in Syria. Oduncu noted the future assassin was “very young and had psychological problems,” and scolded him for having gone to a Gulen-linked school.

Nonetheless, he advised the lad on a path to martyrdom in Syria; 'enter the Special Operations'. At the time of Karlov's killing, Altintas was reportedly part of the “elite special operations unit," and these tweets and the account were reportedly deleted.

Coup Plotter?

But perhaps the most interesting lead relates to his alleged coup involvement. Hurriyet, close to Turkish authorities, says Altintas might have helped in this, after he called in sick from work - just like he did the day he shot the ambassador. It's implied this might be relevant, as in there was no innocent reason proven. He might have been doing coup work, they now think. 

Really now? Because back then … even with that shady absence on record and the other supposedly obvious signs, the aggressive dragnet of military, police, government, and civil society that took in tens of thousands did not manage to nab Altintas? He was briefly suspended they say in October-November on suspicion, but he had that cleared and was reinstated in time to use his authority to bypass security screens and shoot Russia's ambassador dead.

The killer's step-sister says he flew to Izmir on the 15th for the wedding of his Islamist frind "S" (Sercan B.). But did the wife go live with them in Ankara the next day? Confusing.  (Hurriyet)

But authorities insist he was or might have been doing coup work. Could it be the authorities know just what he did in mid-July, and it was just that, and they never arrested him because they approved of his work? Yes, it's quite possible. The timeline confusion might matter: did he really arrive in Ankara only on the 16^th? Or is this one alibi authorities still want him to have?

Let's pause to re-consider this alleged coup. In retrospect, it did nothing but be provocative and then fail badly, allowing a massive and useful retribution from a newly-empowered Erdogan. There might have been a genuine coup attempt, but those promoting the idea seem to be guessing and leaping to blame Gulen and thus the CIA. As far as I could tell from middling study, it seems all evidence for this 'coup' could be explained by a few armed fakers in a TV studio, a few in one "rogue" helicopter and perhaps a couple of jets, some social media forgeries, and a few unseen snipers. That is, besides a number of hapless and unarmed soldiers sent out on the streets, as they said, on a suspiciously timed "exercise."

The rest is Erdogan miraculously surviving, with re-invigorated supporters, and a ready list of domestic rivals to blame and get rid of: suspected Geulenists, Kurds, leftists, maybe Armenians, etc. Probably zero Allahu Akbarking Islamists like Mr. Altintas were put in the pound in that sweep. Those in fact tended to be in the pro-Erdogan mobs assailing, murdering, even beheading soldiers they caught. And they would be the ones running any fakery that allowed that spree.

If Altintas was involved in helping spark Erdogan's purge, we can see how this would shed some light on what really did happen in those murky days. There was probably some role in this for riot cops (I don't know many of the details). If there was a scene where any of them behaved obnoxiously, shouted Marxist slogans and then killed a woman, or something to that effect, my suspicion is Mr. Altintas was one of them. And like all the provocateurs, was never arrested, but instead remained free, protected, and perhaps newly-favored; he might even show signs of being rewarded in the following period.

Moving Up the Ladder of Trust?

From just the available information I've found, it seems something changed in the killer's life at this time. Altintas reportedly moved to Ankara the day after the coup, but possibly a bit before. On the 16th of July, it's said, he took apartment Sercan B, as the Telegraph reports, in “a block of flats above a shop selling children’s bicycles in Demetevler, a working-class suburb” of Ankara. But he “didn't stay long,” and moved in a dramatic way:

According to a neighbours and the brother of Altintas’ landlord, the young police officer moved out shortly after the coup attempt that rocked Turkey in July, selling all his possessions before he departed. His next home was an apartment on a cul-de-sac in the poor, densely populated northern suburb of Keçiören. Like Söke, the neighbourhood has a reputation for nationalism.

Who would sell all his possessions just to move to nearby suburb? One reason might be: the new place would be furnished with better stuff, or his pay was set to increase so he could upgrade and the old crap wasn't worth moving. That is, somehow or other, he was stepping up. The neighborhood wasn't rich, but the apartment might have been posh.

He apparently already worked for the elite special operations unit, but might have been moving up within it.

Douglas Burton spoke with Ahmet Yayla. the former head of the counter-terrorism and operations division of Turkey’s national police, who who now lives in the United States and teaches courses in national security and law at George Mason University (and is accused of being part of the FETO network, which he denies). Yayla explains how Erdogan's purges, before the alleged coup and especially after, have left massive security holes. “In the Ministry of Interior alone after the coup, the president removed 18,600 senior police officers,” he said.

The thousands of gaps left by the mass arrests have been filled, sometimes poorly, with loyal Erdogan followers. Authorities shut down the old police academies and decentralized training to four-month courses at regular universities. These, he says, are conducted with little or no oversight to screen out Jihadists, who may instead be steered to these jobs, quickly turned out and rapidly promoted. (Burton, Klippenstein/Blumenthal, AlterNet) Altintas was already graduated before this (back in 2014), but the jihadist's quick rise “to a prestigious unit of riot police in Ankara” raises questions, Yayla said. “It is unthinkable that such a junior officer would have been given this boost unless he were very close to the ruling AKP Party of Erdogan.” (Burton)

The special operations unit he was part of might include: fake coups or real assassinations, on the secret side. Publicly, it does include, as German DW reports, “Previous security details”

Daily newspaper Hurriyet said Altintas served in riot police in Ankara and provided security for Erdogan eight times since the coup attempt in July.”

The UK Telegraph reports:

Mevlut Mert Altintas, 22, served on police details backing up Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s personal body guards eight times since the failed military coup that rocked Turkey in July, Abdülkadir Selvi, a columnist known for his close ties to the government, wrote in Hurriyet on Wednesday. Alintas, who served on an elite Ankara riot unit for two and a half years, was part of the second tier of security at those events.

Is this a promotion? It's said he did this same security job before - once in 2014, once in 2015, and then eight times in the second half of 2016. Post-coup he should be extra-carefully picked to help defend against alleged Gulen plotters. Now they say he was one all along. But none of the suddenly-obvious clues emerge before and raised enough suspicion to revoke that clearance. The alleged FETO traitor “provided security for Erdogan” repeatedly, but never tried to assassinate him. Did the first tier of security prevent him every time from taking a shot at the Gulenist's main enemy? Or did he actually like Erdogan?

Tarek Fatah noted the shooting was: "eerily similar to the assassination of Pakistani governor Salman Taseer by his jihadi police bodyguard in January, 2011." But this time, the jihadi police assassin never did kill his ward - he was trusted and indeed protected by the Turkish state up to the moment he assassinated Russia's ambassador instead.