Ghouta Massacres by District {Masterlist}

Ghouta Massacres (plural) by District {Masterlist}

(incomplete)

May 3, 2015
minor edits June 1

* The launch point for renewed investigation of the August, 2013 incident is

<< Another 60 Minutes for the Ghota Chemical Massacres (Plural). (forthcoming)
If it's important enough for them to revive in the background as the world ponders a no-fly zone over alleged chlorine attacks (see here for the truth on that) ... well, I have some things to add, and some other additions still to discover.

Previous findings: Various pages under Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack, August 21, 2013 at the open research wiki A Closer Look On Syria (ACLOS). Relating to this is Denis O'Brien's detailed study from April, 2014 Murder in the SunMorgue: A Critique of the Sarin Myth and a Cyber-Investigation of the Ghouta Massacre Mystery (hereafter MITSM) and its summary article (by me) The Ghouta Massacre's Sarin Myth, Brightly Lit: Exploring Kafr Batna's ... Rebel Gas Chambers? That work focuses on one collection of corpses (app. 85 minimum, to rebel reports of "100" or "150") at a morgue in the southern district of Kafr Batna. It suggested the victims here were killed with something other than the blamed Sarin - likely carbon monoxide gas. It almost requires rebels did it, and that the victims were controlled captives of theirs - an impression solidified by their obvious execution of one survivor - they cut his throat when "Assad's gas" didn't finish the job, and then made a lame effort at concealing the fact.

MITSM was a good start to unraveling the whole larger massacre it was just (a good-sized) part of. It was not expanded to other areas very much, so far... The Kafr Batna case illustrates that there was localization - the victims were gassed not because they were downwind from any rocket but due to being trapped beneath the rebel-held morgue, with poisoned air inside rooms - basically, in gas chambers. As I said in the summary, "it seems unlikely a mass killing in Kafr Batna would coincide with a government Sarin attack in other areas. More likely, it would be just one point in a massive rebel crime spree across the area, played out mainly on controlled captives."

I'm just starting this new round of work on my own here, with no promises. I or someone may shift to a spot at the ACLOS wiki, but for now... this will go by distict, expanding on the theme of plural massacres in different areas. It's a geographical organization, so the best start is with some map-based graphics. (See also: ACLOS Location talk page)

Above: Chemical Massacre Syria Infographic including Moadamiyeh al-Sham, southwest, and the various areas of East Ghouta they initially claimed were hit by Sarin rockets, altogether killing, they estimated, 1,300 people. In the center is where they thought all relevant artillery was fired from, but this has been thoroughly discredited. Moadamiyeh is not clear, but the East Ghouta rockets were fired from somewhere around the northern tip of Jobar district (see next map)

Below, a map of the Eastern Ghouta region with districts outlined and color-coded by reported numbers of dead (per table below). The light blue dots = app. rocket imapcts, with extended lines showing the approximate wind direction and expected drift (almost surely a bit different from this but probably close).

I seriously doubt these rockets had anything to do with the mass deaths, but many people on all sides of the debate disagree on that point, so ... considering that alleged fact of Sarin, spreading from these impacts, of rockets fired from there, by whoever... depending how deadly the dispersed drift was, we should expect some deaths in Zamalka, Ain Tarma, and Hazzeh. Places that should have zero Sarin vapor in any of their streets would be Jobar, Irbeen, Jisreen, Harasta, and Douma. Saqba and Hamouriya are in the middle of that continuum, depending on wind.

Below, a death toll table comparing four early reports with area break-down, placed by the numbers they offered:

* 280+: Reported by Jsreen Revolution very early on (removed before I could sort it out). This is useful for an early glimpse of the accounting of a small number, but the batches were never clear; 4 towns mentioned: Ain Tarma - Zamalka - Hazeh ( حزة ) - Jobar, with five areas listed. The 5th is likely Irbin, deduced from the breakdown (23 kids, 17 women, 11 men), partly matching the next entry. The others, unclear which, had early tolls of: 61, 67, 50+, 50+

* 646: Reported by sos.syr.un, Aug.22: Over 2/3 of their victims unidentified ("did not reach their names") 201 are named, cities mixed in, hard to tally. The anonymous arrivals at each area's "medical points" are listed below.

* 1,228: Reported by Douma Coordinating Committee, Aug. 21: "The number of martyrs by medical points in East Gouta - Census Bureau legal unified."

* 1,300 (clearly rounded, almost same as above) - Chemical Massacre Syria Infographic (shown above)

Victims by City
City	280+	646	1,228	1,300
M. al-Sham	n/m	36	n/m	70
Zamalka	?? 50-67	n/m	400	400
Ain Tarma	?? 50-67	n/m	75	75
Hazeh	?? 50-67	n/m	n/m	n/m
Kafr Batna	n/m	100	150	150
Jisreen	n/m	4	16(3 kids)	16(3)
Saqba	n/m	69	69	69
Hamouriya	n/m	150(50c-40w-50m)	312	300
Irbin	51? (23c-17w-11m	50? (23-17-??)	63 (30-16-17)	63 (30-16-17)
Douma	n/m	58	150	n/m
Harasta	n/m	n/m	5 (1 woman)	n/m
Jobar	?? (50-67)	n/m	n/m	n/m

Note: the final numbers here get us quite close to the dramatic claims of the Obama administration that 1.429 managed to perish in this attack. That, however, provides no area break-down, and so is less useful to note here. The 1,300 is probably an exaggeration, but maybe not or maybe not by much. Video-based assessments affirm a minimum of around 3-400 dead. Including photos and various records, I've suspected it's probably about twice this many, 700-900. But that's sort of a guess.  Note also how many of the supposed non-guesses rebels offered are still clearly rounded off, not exact. 300, 400, 150 are not likely to be exact tallies.

Another source - the VDC's August 23 report includes the final statistics of martyrs issued by the United Revolutionary Medical Office in Eastern Gota." (better view in jpeg form here. This early list gives several areas which I can mainly read - some don't line up clearly:

1.  ?? Douma - 20dead 630 affected
2. Saqba 105 dead, 1,460 affected
3. Kafr Batna 125 dead, 2,226 aff
4.  ?? (reads el-Hsan) 174 dead, 1,200 aff.
5.  ?? (reads al-shamiya - meaning M. al-Sham, or an area in east Ghouta I can't find?) 6 dead, 74 affected
6. Jisreen 16 dead, 17 aff (one survivor?)
7. Irbeen 110 dead, 600 aff
8. Jobar: 27 dead, 700 aff.
9.  ?? (reads al-mlyahiya - meaning Mleha?) 87 dead, 165 aff
10. Zamalka 500 dead, 1200 aff
11.  ?? (reads ankhad (?) Rouh (spirit) - a sad cat video title translated suggests "save the soul" or "save our souls" - is that a place? Does it mean unknown?) 1 dead, 182 aff
12.  ?? (reads el-salmiya meaning ???) 46 dead, 800 aff.
13. Hammouriya 27dead, 200 aff.
14. total = 1,302 dead, 9,838 affected

But as MITSM proves, it's the quality (nature) of death that matters far more than the quantity of it, when it comes to assessing the crime and the blame over it. And that's to be the main focus of this study. Here all 12 districts (or most?) gets its own post (eventually, as possible), and they each get filled in (as possible) with three sections:

Background: summary, partial - what was reported for that district, what we've found previously, highlights and oddities to consider - less focus here, may be slow to get filled-in.
More emphasis on the other two sections searching for new info between the lines (and expanding on the starts here at ACLOS):

Victim records: mostly perusing the database of the opposition Center for Documentation of Violations in Syria (see ACLOS page) for patterns among the victims - who was related to who, where from ,where died, who has a photo, who's listed twice, etc.

Clinical Signs or clinical features minus symptoms, which a patient complains of, and these people are past complaining - their bodies just display signs. Showing pictures with an eye to diagnosing what poison is most likely for each group, and how many different groups there might be (how many Ghouta Massacres - can't be known, but guesses can be narrowed)

Ghouta Massacres by District
Order of listing here will go west-to-east, with other considerations for logic flow, with info placed where it seems to fit, sometimes probably in a few places:

Part 1) Moadamiyeh al-Sham

2) Jobar

3) Irbeen
- Irbeen Gas Chamber Clues (added 2020)

4) Zamalka

5) Ain Tarma

6) Hazza

7) Kafr Batna

8) Saqba and Jisreen

9) Hamouriya

10) Harasta and Douma
- Douma WhiteMorgue (added 2020)

Findings, Summarized:
(forthcoming, as possible)