Death in Bucha's Gray Zone, masterlist

Death in Bucha's Gray Zone {Masterlist}

< Bucha Massacre

First posted June 13, 2022 (rough, incomplete)

Last update August 12

Introductory/overview content forthcoming.

Sub-theme: Who was in control?

Parts

Part 1 - Defended with Artillery - Introducing the Gray Zone Concept, tallying the costs

Part 2: Making a Dead End on the E373 Feb. 25 crossing of the Irpin River on the E373 highway, a truck fleeing, and a truck hiding are stopped with Ukrainian shelling of the bridge, the highway, and behind a store, destroying/disabling some 12+ Russian vehicles, killing several soldiers, damaging 7+ civilian cars, some homes, probably killing some motorists and passers-by. It seems likely this crossing effort was never planned and done by accident

Part 3: Making a Roadblock on Vokzalna Street Feb. 27 incursion into Bucha and Irpin, some 30 vehicles reported, tracked north to south with videos, the ill-fated crossing to Irpin detailed, the column turns back, and is largely destroyed in a Ukrainian attack that destroys 11+ homes, notes on the aftermath, damage control, and spoils including 3+ captured Russian vehicles.

Part 4: Shelling in the Novus District, 2/27-28 ...

Part 5: Bucha both "Liberated" and "Completely Occupied." March 3 ...(forthcoming)

Part 6: Russia Takes over: expansion and events of March 4 and 5 (forthcoming)

Part 7: March 5: Inaugurating a Reign of Terror on Yablunska 

Part 8: the murky middle  ... (forthcoming)

Part 9: The Case for a Secret Ukrainian Presence in Bucha in the second half of March - added July 27. I used to think it was a known fact that Ukrainian forces held half the city by around the 20th, but on closer study ... all I can do is make a case they might have been in there, certain areas and increasingly over time. It's a decent case, but not totally convincing even to me. We'll see if anything helps strengthen the possibility or rule it out.

Part 10: Clashes at the Continent Center - one of the points included above gets a detailed working in its own post - on or around March 18 a video showed clashes in the area of the Continent Center, where Russian forces had based themselves over the preceding day. Some background on the center and violence there from 2/27 March 9, including 2 AFVs obliterated to disastrous effect (at least one civilian fatality) - 8 steep, short-range mortar impacts on the east and south walls could be read to indicate firing from nearby to the east and southeast. That's one place Ukrainian forces were at that time. Just south of that and about an hour earlier, alleged Russians executed up to 4 men at the roundabout - the local filming seems to connect those "Russians" with the later attack on the real Russians to the north.

Further split-ups are possible if too much detail emerges on the way, as happened with parts 2-4 - huge as they are now, combined, the first plan was to cover all that in one post. 

...

Making a Roadblock at Vokzalna Street

Death in Bucha's Gray Zone, Part 3: Making a Roadblock at Vokzalna Street

June 12, 2022 (rough, incomplete)

updates June 14, June 17, July 22...

By the end of February, the swift Russian offensive to encircle Kiev was halted at the edges of Bucha and Irpin, with some drastic measures that ushered them into the "gray zone." This is a corollary of Ukraine's chosen "total defense" policy, by which civilian neighborhoods are enlisted as battle zones, with schools, hospitals, and homes used to base artillery and snipers, making them legitimate military targets. In admitted defiance of international norms, Ukrainian forces have followed this policy despite the clear risk to the populace, who admittedly cannot be evacuated in many cases. (WaPo, archive) 

In Bucha, the first days in late February mixed open urban resistance with artillery, but for most of the time afterwards, there would be no (normal, open) military presence in homes or anywhere inside the city. Rather they left it to the enemy to occupy Bucha, but at great cost, both to them and to the city's residents, as Kiev tried to control and degrade Russian force remotely with artillery and drones. They would make Bucha into a trap, that would include some half the populace through the worst of it. It was called a "gray zone."

Part 2 covered the partly successful but probably accidental Russian effort to cross a bridge from Bucha to the Kiev outskirts, early on February 25. Here we look at a genuine effort, two days later, at crossing a different river - or a big creek - between Bucha and Irpin. This ended in massive disaster for the column and for the neighborhood it was in, in a first strong taste of what "gray zone" would come to mean. 

Another Ill-Fated Crossing

Early on the 27th, a large column of Russian tanks, BMPs, other armored fighting vehicles and support trucks set out from the Kiev suburb of Hostomel (Gostomel), where they had first based themselves on the 24th. They headed south, and were first seen just entering Bucha's northern outskirts sometime before OSINT Technical's posting on Twitter at 9:12 AM (a Youtube posting) The scene was geolocated by Collapse Into Now. Massive smoke is rising in the distance, probably from the Antonov airport in Hostomel, where Ukraine claimed attacks on Russian forces this day. At least 12 tanks or AFVs are seen here driving along Bucha's central Vokzal'na or Vokzalnaya ("Station") street. Reports say there were some 30 vehicles in total.

This column apparently had a very serious mission, but the first or northernmost action we see is slightly comical. In a morning view, posted 8:56 AM local time (but likely recorded some time earlier). 4 or perhaps 5 AFVs are seen driving south on Vokzalna just passing the Novus store, mostly at a speedy clip. The front one fires repeatedly at and near a mounted AFV that's served for years as a monument to Soviet fighters in Afghanistan. Others fire sporadically as they pass, directly hitting the monument's base. A light pole ff to the left is hit, and topples over at the video's end. It seems like a silly incident that had some laughing and had me wondering. But the monument might have looked like a real threat, and maybe some enemy was actually shooting at them moments earlier. (Is it possible for attackers to climb inside the monument and actually fire from inside of it?)

The next placeable view is from a video filmed from behind the Continent mall in the middle of Bucha, posted 8:47 AM but probably filmed at least a few minutes earlier, it came with a map: "Bucha: The route of the Russians based on the published videos. In a panic retreated from Gostomel" A mapped, at least a few tanks are headed west where Vokzalna inconveniently breaks at the railroad tracks - at least 3 that have crossed the tracks are seen passing west before a final turn south, when they stop amid the sound of shooting or explosions in the mid-distance.  (2 visible here, in red) This is all mapped out below.

Somewhere on the way, a Novynarnia daily summary reported, at "about eight" in the morning in Bucha, "a convoy of Russian armored vehicles and cars of about 30 units passed through the city. The last locals burned with a Molotov cocktail." Novynarnia: "These events were announced during a briefing by advisor to the head of the OPU (Office of the President of Ukraine) Alexey Arestovich: "local residents also joined the fight: some Russian BMDs of Russian paratroopers were burned with Molotov cocktails right in Bucha," 

Cited there was a short video posted by The Last Checkpoint on Telegram, posted 8:26 AM: "The occupier got lost in Bucha and has already received a portion of Molotov from the locals, the equipment is on fire." The blurry view through trees and backyards is hard to read or place. A logical spot for this to happen is around the bend at the tracks, and as shown here, the junction just north of the scene discussed above is the likely origin of some light smoke seen around noon. But homes were reported burning there as well (Zhovtneva st. - Ukrinform). Maybe the locals did like some folks in Odessa once allegedly did - forgot to open their windows before throwing their Molotov cocktails? No. More likely, there was some real weapon firing by both sides and some collateral damage from that. 

Despite apparent attacks on the way, it seems the column carried on south down Vokzalna, where a few AFVs are seen in a video report from Bucha filed by Japanese TBS/NewsDig. A local on Yablunska street, at the south edge of Bucha, showed a video taken on Feb. 27, in the morning by sunlight (see below). Facing roughly west, this shows 3 tanks speeding south down Vokzalna street, across Yablunska, towards Irpin - across the exposed area I've come to call mortar alley. Some distant gunfire is heard as the second tank passes, then louder, closer gunfire as soon as the 3rd one passes, seeming to startle the person recording so they take cover.  

It's not very clear in a still frame, but one of the passing vehicles is marked here in red. Some odd graffiti is seen on the yellow fence at left, A better view of that from April is added beneath.

In English, this says KIROO (a nickname?), "live fast," dollar signs, and 1488 - often a White Power reference to the writings of David Lane and Adolf Hitler. I had wondered if some ultranationalists turning back the Russian occupation later on had left these marks first noticed in April. But they were present by the morning of February 27, maybe predating the invasion, or maybe done by some Ukrainian defenders already based here. 

Other graffiti just meters away across the intersection says @vshop_18. I'm not sure what it means,  but Petri Krohn on Twitter found at a link that's now dead: "High paying job "Those who are seriously looking for a highly paid job as a courier in Odessa and any other city in Ukraine, go to this link using the Tor browser http://knoa6ewvkei5vfox.onion or contact us in the @vshop_18 cart." Petri added the tags: #Narcotics #Crime. There may be more to say on this in time.

At least one of those AFVs seen rushing south made it across the bridge, over the Bucha river, and into northern Irpin. Here they were routed, perhaps with missiles or with powerful anti-tank weapons. One wrecked vehicle seen at the south end of the Giraffe mall, with its distinctive ... damaged. sign says "Welcome to Hell" - widely shown all over this eventual front-line area. smoking to the right below 

A net-camouflaged Ukrainian AFV sits on the side of this ambush spot where the Russians were finished off by fighters flying a red-and-black flag. The same flag - probably of or linked to Right Sector - was seen in part 2, where the Russians were stopped on the E373, also just outside Bucha. Is this another part of how this neo-Nazi organization earned the clout to be incorporated into Ukraine's armed forces like the Azov battalion was? As covered in another post ("some horrors"), it was under this flag 4 Russian soldiers were seen dead near the mall, and 2 of them were stripped of valuables and laid out on some old train tracks (just off-frame to the left). They were left out for over a month, covered for a time, then deliberately burned along the way, and passed off, by some, as civilians killed by the Russians in Bucha. 

This scene was filmed at the south end of the Giraffe Mall in Irpin, which was seriously damaged and set ablaze, along with a building across the street. Smoke was seen rising, a slightly pea soup color. Clearly, that's the same seen from a distance on the right line of sight (I checked) from southern Bucha. It's still morning, but apparently there has still been no massive attack on Vokzalna, just off frame to the right. I estimate the solar azimuth as close to 130 or 131 degrees, or around 9:05 AM. 

A second smoke plume rises about the same distance south, on a different line of sight, suggesting an industrial area just east of the mall (me on Twitter). I have limited views of the area, but one drone video shows part of it, including a burned building in the indicated zone (me). There seems to be no footage of what happened there.

Smoke plumes are seen around 11:30 at Giraffe Mall, not clearly in the industrial area, but south of there at a high-rise at 146 Soborna st. (me). It's not clear how that building came to be damaged, if that might be its smoke seen at 9:05 (I don't think so, but perhaps), or if it was only damaged later.  Consider that just one AFV was clearly seen destroyed at the mall, there will be 2+ unaccounted for. Maybe one drove into the industrial area and was hit around 9:00, while another managed to shoot a sniper perch around 11AM before it was finally stopped somewhere else, a bit later. This is not all clear, nor central to the main story.

Side-note: A wrecked tank's remains were filmed on the 27th in front of a Sinsay store I cannot locate (me) - Novynarnia showed video of it to report on clashes in Irpin - it was said by others to be in Bucha and said to be in Irpin . But the video and other postings are clear that was in Mykolaiv, which can be confirmed. (me)

The distant smoke photo was posted and widely taken as showing the bridge to Irpin had been blown up (e.g. Ponomarenko). But that would be on a slightly different line of sight and nearer, and this bridge never was demolished like that. But a major roadblock north of the river was coming. 

Maybe after that rout, or the shooting that preceded it, the rest of the Russian column turned back north, up Vokzalna street. They're seen by a surveillance camera driving north past house #33 at what it says is 9:10 AM, some 5 minutes after the above photo. (postings: Stand with Ukraine - Sandeep Bhati at 9:40 AM Asjad Munir at 9:32 AM: "Now Bucha, [Vokzalna] 40. They are going towards the center Molotov cocktails at the ready! Video Capture From Ukrainian House CCTV."  

Lobbing bottles out one's window at that moment would have been a rather bad idea. This should be moments before the soldiers were massively shelled in an artillery or missile attack and largely annihilated. It might be the video cuts just then because the camera was destroyed, or just lost its view when the window at #40 was blown in. It's not totally clear how the footage was obtained, uploaded, and re-uploaded within 22 minutes. The clock might be off, but it is about that time, or perhaps even later, by solar angles. (sun shining up the street, but lighting the east sides as well, so it has to be well before 10:30, when the sun would hit 151 degrees like the street). 

A map for all this & below before we pause on this area. Other damaged locales in the north - Novus, 101 Vokzalna - are covered in part 4.

A Long Block of Hell

The aftermath of the attack on the Russian column is widely seen in many photos and videos, including the photo at right, facing north up Vokzalna street, filled with wreckage for some 400 meters between Yablunska and Sadova streets. 

One early video is especially popular - Radio Svoboda posting with handy subtitles. It's mid-afternoon by sunlight, and some spots are still burning (panoramic view below). The earliest Twitter posting I found is by Illia Ponomarenko at 2:57 PM local time, with many following from 3 PM onward. It was probably filmed between 2:30 and 2:50. The local filming is upset that so many home had to be destroyed, but he only blames the Russians, with agitated vulgarity. 

Earlier yet is a video I recently stumbled on, posted by Eagle_Eye on the 28th: "The #Hostomel, #Bucha, #Irpin area has turned into a giant graveyard for the #Russian invaders." Tanks and houses are not just still burning but getting worse - gun turrets are seen bursting into flames, ammunition heard detonating dangerously, as thickening smoke blots out the sun's light. casting a hellish pall over the street. Below is a panoramic view looking at #44 Voknalna as that tank's turret lights up. Later it would pop off like others did. The videographer is likely military-linked to be here this early and to be so composed.

At the end of that video, the corpse of an apparent Russian soldier is shown under a toppled tree, half his head blown off. An army-looking jacket is laid next to him, but not on, and camouflage pants help clarify it's not a civilian. A stray boot also lies nearby. 

Below is a graphic made from an Azov Battalion drone view of March 23, with addresses (per Google Maps) added, and a lot of other notes. Basic count: 13+ 1at least 18 military vehicles (mainly tanks/AFVs, one fuel tanker) were destroyed, damaged, or otherwise stuck left on the street, some in small pieces. This process also destroyed at least eleven houses (Vokzalna #20, 23, 25, 25a, 26, 28, 30, 32, 34, 42, 44), and badly damaged at least 8 more. It seems at least one civilian car on the street was obliterated near the north end (most are parked off the street). There may have been direct hits to homes; in spots, the damage seems far beyond what would be caused by exploding tanks out front. This applies at least to the homes #30, 32, and 34.

Damage Control

How many civilians were killed or injured in all that? Officially, it sounds like none. Bucha's Mayor Anatoly Fedoruk made a visit to this hellish scene, apparently on the 28th and still smoldering, and filmed himself in front of #21 (one video posting). As BigKyiv summarized his statements: "According to the mayor, the column of enemy equipment was completely destroyed, there are no casualties among the defenders and civilians - this is the main thing. It remains to restore the city and private houses that suffered during the battle." "Casualties" (втрат) usually includes deaths and injuries. He claims no civilians were even injured in all this, which is highly unlikely. Hopefully most people were evacuated, away, or hiding in their basements, having guessed what kind of defense Kiev had decided on for them. Even then, there might be a few killed just here, plus many wounded. Otherwise there might be dozens killed. But however many it was, they were in the end quite likely passed off as killed by the Russians, perhaps all by shooting. 

Just two apparently civilian bodies are known here on this street: two men found in the yard of 17a, one of the less damaged houses. (explanatory tweet) It doesn't seem like they were killed in the shelling of the 27th coming from the street, but maybe by some shells sent later to kill Russian troops hiding in backyards; punctures in the south fence show fragments or perhaps bullets coming from the other side, between 17 and 17a. (Overview image at right, or with update tweet). A New York Times report heard "some of the Russian soldiers who survived the blast escaped into people’s yards, residents said. Two bodies in the garden of one house farther up the street" - almost certainly a reference to this scene - "were probably those of Russian soldiers, said Kostiantyn Momotov, who lived nearby. The men had cast off their army uniforms and boots, he said, pointing to a camouflage jacket on the ground" - maybe the one we've seen going with a dead soldier 16 houses from 17a, and pointing to no second jacket, pants, boots, or anything else - then they "put on civilian clothes" - 2 full, fitting sets they found - "possibly to avoid capture, he said. Both men had been shot in the head" when the ruse totally failed. The shelling through the fence is not mentioned. Maybe they were soldiers, or civilians injured in shelling meant for soldiers, then executed. Or maybe they were shelled later, and body 1 at least appears executed with a shot to the head, after he was already down - likely from that ignored shelling. 

Below is a composite view from a drone view in a TSN video. Compare #44 here with it in the scene above - slightly worse damage after the fire was done - the tank out front had its turret pop off since the video. "Dead soldier," as mentioned, is under that small, toppled tree. I've seen a photo of a detached and decayed human hand, set out in front of a blurry house that I found - quite easily - was Vokzalna #35 across the street. I don't need to show that here. Most likely, it's from another Russian soldier. Any killed and mutilated civilians will be buried in the rubble. I've seen one of those unburied in Irpin, and I don't need to share that either - needless to say, it's ugly. And I can hardly imagine there are none of those from all this damage.

Alexey Arestovich, military adviser to President Zelensky, said "the enemy in the morning tried to move towards the city of Bucha, Gostomel, Irpin, but came under a powerful artillery missile air strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The enemy is disorganized, and now only a small of his forces are resorting to attempts to conduct reconnaissance in the direction of the city of Irpin. The AFU controls the situation, destroys the enemy." (Novynarnia) It certainly was a rout, but if there were 30 vehicles to start, 1-2 lost to "Molotov cocktail" attacks, at least 3 lost in Irpin, and at least 13 lost on Vokzalna, that would be perhaps 12-13 that managed to survive and, as far as we know, return to some base.  

Mayor Fedoruk later affirmed artillery, not aircraft, was used in the attack. Ukrainian Pravda's interviewer asked in April: "was this famous column stopped at [Voknzalna/Station street] by artillery or aircraft?" Fedoruk: "Artillery, as we later found out. Because we are all at once: "Bayraktari, bayraktari!" But the artillery put everything in a filigree way." They assumed Bayraktar drones did this, but it turns out gray zone artillery defense did this intricate, delicate, work, as "filigree" (or філігранно) suggests (Merriam-Webster). 

President Zelensky himself famously visited the Vokzalna site on 4 April. Just out of curiosity I checked where he went: seen by the sign for #19a, at the colorful stray wall of #20, and next to the fuel tanker in front of #21 (at right), where was made his most pained face yet. Seeing these results of his own military's gray zone defense plan, he said "It's very difficult to talk when you see what they've done here." He brought the media to Vokzalna because "We want you to show the world what happened here. What the Russian military did." They got blown up. Zelensky described Russia's actions in Bucha - not just on this street - as "genocide." He demanded justice or else he threatened Ukrainians "will find a non-civilized solution," whatever that means. (Newsweek) 

There were efforts to blame this damage directly on the Russians. Glavred.net reported how "the Russian military is shelling residential buildings with machine guns mounted on the roofs of armored vehicles," and how "locals threw Molotov cocktails" at the column, which then "caught fire and stopped." But it didn't mention the Ukrainian military really stopping the column with such power that homes were damaged by the roofs and other parts of armored vehicles.

Ukrainian OSINT "journalists" at "Investigation-Info" wrote on March 2 how the tank column "ran into a blown-up bridge and tried to turn around," but "at the same time, the occupiers began to shoot the surrounding houses," causing all that damage just before the defenders acted. Luckily they didn't delay, because as it was, "There are dozens of such destroyed or damaged houses on this street." (archive) 

They cite "local resident Mykola, whose house was practically destroyed by the Russian military." The man shows a small piece of metal: "These are the things that came to the house."  It might be some kind of shell that's been broken, probably no more fired than the entire gun turrets, metal plates, springs and mechanisms, wheels, body parts and tree limbs that would have flown into these homes when the tanks blew up. 

A 9-story high-rise one block to the west, at 62 Vodoprovidna street, was also damaged and set afire the morning of the 27th. The image at right was posted by Ukrainian journalist Mykola Vorobiov on Twitter at 1:58 PM on the 27th. Heavy smoke from the column attack also fills the air. Seeing that this place was burned before images of March 3, I've guessed that a sniper of people or of tanks was based there and was hit in self-defense and perhaps blindly, which may be the case. Since it happened on this same day missiles were flying at the tank column, it may have been hit in the course of that attack. However, if they were firing from the south, as they most likely would be, it's unlikely they would aim that far off to the left on accident. 

Assessors and Spoils

A longer version of the famous afternoon aftermath video has the local man stepping through a broken fence at #27 to offer his thanks to two fighters, one oddly dressed, who doesn't like being filmed and pushes the camera away (right). The local totally understands, and praises Ukraine and the heroes as he goes on his way. 

One wears an armband that's debatably Russian white or Ukrainian yellow (I think yellow). I hear they speak in Russian, with an accent like they're from Russia, or certain parts of Ukraine, and highly educated (Antiwar Soldier), and they are next to one of the Russian tanks, so we must conclude they're Russians (Qoppa). 

Still, these would most logically be part of the early Ukrainian defense hobbled together from Teroborona (Territorial Defense), apparently with Right Sector, etc. and reportedly with Georgian units, and possibly other foreigners, These might dress differently from each others, and might communicate in Russian for lack of knowing each others' languages well - especially the guy in black. They might confidently hang around the site of a massive Russian defeat hours later, when Ukrainian forces should be in charge, assessing and securing the site. Any column attack survivors who were able would probably flee with the surviving vehicles or on foot and try to regroup somewhere else. I suppose a few did, but it's not clear how far they could get, nor why that would include coming back here to guard an AFV they can't expect to drive away in. That would leave them relying on Ukrainian forces not coming back and on locals misidentifying them AS Ukrainian forces - despite the Russian-speaking and white armband - so they can defend their pointless position by just shoving people around. Val, for one, agrees with me.

These men were standing at #27 next to one of at least 4 intact-looking AFVs that were found on and off the street at 19a, 27 and 36 Vokzalna, maybe another by #31. No Russians ever drove away in these, but  all seemingly taken away before that drone view above. They may have been assessing its value, or guarding its contents from looting by locals.

At #36, the two tanks were pulled behind the house (damaged even in the back from the blasts). At least one dead Russian soldier was found at this site - intact, unburnt, no visible injuries but head and face are blurred - it's not clear how he died. A former cop "Ruslan" says he strangled one surviving Russian soldier atop an AFV, because he was unarmed. But he also says other surviving Russians shot at him right after that, grazing his scalp. Neither part of his story can be confirmed as factual. DER SPIEGEL

Investigation-Info complained "The bodies of some of the occupiers are still scattered around Bucha, no one takes them away and they begin to stink." But someone took the useful weapons they found. A video of 2 days later, March 1, shows two seized AFVs driven away from this mess, moving south on Vokzal'na street under the Ukrainian flag but still marked V. Below: the "tropies" as seen from Yablunska, at a corner that would become famous exactly a month later. 

Another AFV was seized from the Irpin attack and seen driving south on the 27th, for at least three functional tanks captured and available for use. This should be kept in mind whenever a V marked tank is seen in Bucha and used as proof the Russians did this or that.

Postscript: The Killing of Tetiana Pomazanko 

The morning of the 27th might also have witnesses be the first killing of a civilian by direct Russian fire. New York Times report "In a Kyiv Suburb,‘They Shot Everyone They Saw’"(NYT - a mirror) explains how Tetiana Pomazanko ran to see a column of Russian tanks that just then "drove into the Kyiv suburb of Bucha," thinking they were Ukrainian. "But the troops opened fire on Pomazanko, 56. Bullets ripped through the wooden gate and fence around her house, killing her instantly." Tetiana's elderly mother was left to partially bury her body in the garden. As she explained, “there was so much shelling; I did not know what to do." It's not clear who was shelling who and why after the Russians had entered. In fact, I'd have to see the scene in more detail to say shelling of the column could be ruled out - sometimes when "bullets rip through" things, it's actually explosive fragments. However, there are no successful hits we know of in this spot. Shooting by nervous Russian troops seems pretty likely.

Where: NYT map places "woman killed in garden" on north Vokzalna, 650m north of Novus, just south of Instytutska street, and not far from the northern entrance to Bucha. The exact location is unclear, but a photo shows it's a little off the street, with what seems to be Vokzalna 119 visible across the way. When: "The careless shooting of Pomazanko, at 10am on February 27, was one of the first actions of Russian troops in Bucha." But even before that, another action they took in Bucha was getting largely killed. The shooting was said to happen as the Russian column entered the city. But as covered above, that happened around 8 in the morning, some 2 hours earlier. They might just have the time wrong, or they might have the direction wrong, and the column was leaving Bucha around 10 AM.

That seems likely, and it would be much smaller the second time. They were attacked around 9:10, but had probably a few vehicles surviving - 8 or less, if there were 30 to begin with, They would have many killed, wounded, trapped, and left behind, but still probably more survivors than could fit in the remaining vehicles. They might regroup somewhere near the scene, then progress north, the injured riding and many walking, tanks moving slowly or in spurts so they could stay together. They'd probably be in a foul mood but lucky to be alive, and not looking to take any further chances. They might have taken fire from buildings as they had on the way down, and would probably shoot freely in response, likely causing much of the damage we'll look at in part 4. In this way, they might pass the Pomazanko home and open fire when someone appeared too suddenly - or maybe just out of anger or malice when they saw anyone. But even the NYT didn't claim this, just calling the jumpy survivors "careless" in their accidental shooting of a somewhat careless local. 

Post-Postscript: Escape to the West 

All of the above is what it is, aside from assuming the surviving armor would return north up Vokzalna street to Gostomel. It's possible that some AFVs might have done so, and likely around 10:00 if so. However, perhaps none did and they killed Tetiana on their way in around 8:00. Surveillance video included in the Bucha 22 documentary (Suspilne video on Youtube) suggests at least 13 armored vehicles and trucks instead wound up circling the city and leaving to the west at mid-day.  

At 5:20 in the video we see least 6 vehicles driving north up Deputatska street at the city's west edge at 11:16 AM by the timestamp, and 2 more pass at 11:26 am, The scene was geolocated to a veterinary care center at 50.5440317, 30.1976089. 

Another view at 28:07 shows at least 5 AFVs passing NW on the Warsaw highway to Vorzel around solar noon by visual reading. At 1:40 in the video, the same camera sees 6 AFVs and 2 trucks seen passing a bit later. This is the walled compound of a water utility company at 50.5460151,30.1750794 - the walls and everything outside have changed since the 2015 Google Maps street view, but the interior is the same (Qoppa) These clips have no date stamp, and are presented alongside claims of up to 400 tanks that invaded Bucha on March 4, as if this showed some of those.  But the date can be verified as the same Feb. 27 by smoke seen rising from Antonov airport in Hostomel, where they started, and Vokzalna where they went next (full view but very rough). 

The airport fire is brought under control between views, while the Vokzalna-area blazes grows worse 3-4 hours after the attack. There are no time stamp, but it appears to be full solar noon in the first video (31 deg. elevation held 11:50 to 12:30), and shortly after in the other - best I can estimate is approximately 12 PM and 1 PM. 

This only makes sense too; if you came from plume 1, narrowly escaped plume 2, you'd likely go a different way, like back into Vorzel, where tanks would be hit on March 3 (see part 5). At least 13 vehicles total pass here - maybe including all 7 seen in the earlier view, or in addition. Just 13 is more than I estimated survived the attack - maybe it was a bigger column than estimated (the reported about 30 taken as 30), or other groups were around the survivors met up with. One BMP has what seems to be a camera mount - one has a lot of soldiers sitting on top, as if they had just lost some transports.

Making a Dead End on the E373

Death in Bucha's Gray Zone, Part 2: Making a Dead End on the E373

June 2-3, 2022 (rough, incomplete) 

updates June 4/5, June 12, July 21

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The swift Russian offensive on Kiev was finally and drastically halted at the outskirts of Bucha on February 25 and 27, with bridges destroyed in Bucha and at Irpin. This really set the tone of the "gray zone" defense plan outlined in part 1 - trying to control a military force remotely with artillery while it's in an urban environment. This was bound harsh effects for the enemy and for the local populace, and was probably illegal by normal standards, but ... they do get to blame all the negative outcomes on Russia, even directly. 

This post explores the northernmost incident shown here, Feb. 25 on the E373, and nearby, partly (perhaps totally) on the same day. In part 1, I initially had this as Feb. 28, in a momentary confusion, included that version of this RE-UPDATED infographic map. At the end, we'll also touch on the crossing at Romanivka for some contrast.

Add July 21: even before the Russians rolled in, someone in Ukraine was working to halt the coming advance. Somewhere I found this photo posted late on the 24th showing shelling of the rail line at Vokzalna street - included in this Tik Tok video of early fighting aftermath. Shown here with 2020 street views facing south, and facing north, a photo of March 5-7 as presented by CNN - some differences but clearly the same place. The one impact crater shown is just south of the tracks - a miss.  I think it was fired from the west or WSW, for what it's worth. 

Bridge of Death, 2/25

In an early emergency, the E373 4-lane highway bridge to Kiev was destroyed, about one kilometer from the outskirts of Kiev, about 24 hours after the first tanks crossed the border. That sure seems ambitious, but it didn't work. 

The aftermath of this incident was shown in a popular Defense of Ukraine (official) tweet at 1:59 PM on Feb 26 (my shown time +10 hours). Translated: "Kyiv region. The column of the Rosguard was destroyed. The enemy has no place on our earth !!!" That had over 22,000 likes when I retweeted it just for reference the other day, some 5 minutes before it was deleted. Why?

(seemed deleted, because I was blocked?)

A few postings on Twitter remain, like by Aleksandre Zarnadze, at 8:25 PM the 25th in Kiev. I could find no postings on Youtube, none of Facebook. I don't know how to search on telegram. I don't need to find copies, just curious where they are & aren't. They were around. Gazeta.ua had reported on this, Feb. 25: "In Irpen, in the suburbs of Kiev, Ukrainian soldiers burned a column of Rosgvardia. "Death to enemies!", – reported the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." That linked to a Ukrainian Land Forces Facebook post, but "this content isn't available right now" - maybe just on account of it being graphic.

So this video is hard to find now, almost as if it's being scrubbed. As far as I've seen, there were no other videos or still images, nor any clear reports of this event at the time. Other photographs and videos of this scene only appear on Feb. 28 and March 1, with several all at once showing the same scene around sunset. Logically, those images were taken late on the 28th. But the incident was 3 days earlier, and there seem to be no images in between. So as the first views vanish, it can give the appearance - perhaps accidental - that this only happened on the 28th (that's how I got confused). So just to be clear - a panoramic view of the scene from the 2/25 video, starting at the charred soldier who made it the furthest east, compared to a later photo from a similar view. 

Briefly on the damage: I'm still no real expert, but that looks like fired artillery, be it heavy mortar shells or some rocket/missile. Only the middle 2 of 4 lanes are down, the one to Kiev in the river, the one to Bucha just sagging badly. The outer lane to Bucha was passable and people kept driving on it. The outer lane to Kiev was mostly intact, but probably not drivable, except on a motorcycle. Another impact in the Bucha-bound lanes caused a crater and no collapse. All that's visible in a later aerial view showing the new temporary bypass bridge. Red and orange boxes = the first two Russian trucks.

That basic scene was first filmed a bit past solar noon, and the site is only smoldering lightly, so this military event occurred hours before, on the morning of the 25th. 

There were no clear early reports I've seen, but I haven't seen everything. The well-connected Illia Ponomarenko did tweet around 10 AM on the 25th "Some of key bridges across local rivers have been destroyed, including in Irpin, to slow the enemy movement down." The E373 at Bucha is one of 3 places marked "where Russian armored groups are trying to gain a foothold right now." The bridge at Romanivka was not indicated, almost requiring that "in Irpin" means this bridge, at the end of that southernmost red line.

Below is the scene facing the other way, on the one passable lane into Bucha, in a video from "SAFARI" National Police "clearance operation" in April.  The second truck visible on the left - 2 soldiers were blown or moved to the right shoulder, one just passed and one visible ahead, next to some yellow truck paneling on the guardrail.  

VPolsch (Poland) would publish a later photo of 11 April (Rick Mave/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) and report it showed a "bridge destroyed by the Russian shelling on the highway across the Buchanka river. " That's the Irpin river, and why would the Russians bomb a bridge they were trying to cross at the same time?  

Four available videos:

1 Burned-out military vehicles and destroyed shops after battle for Bucha on outskirts of Kyiv - YouTube

2 Под Киевом разбита колонна Росгвардии - YouTube

3 Город Буча после тяжелых боёв. No comment - YouTube

4 Спалена техніка Росгвардії під Києвом | Репортаж із Бучі після бойових дій - YouTube

This scene is also covered a bit, in lesser but grislier detail, is the post Some Horrors "Russian Troops Left in Bucha" - Burned Bodies - here, a fuller analysis: no tanks or fighting vehicles seem to be here, just five vehicles I'll call trucks. From east to west, closest to the collapsed section are 2 badly damaged and burned trucks, the first one pretty well flattened (red & orange dots below). Then one that's less damaged but burned (yellow), then a police truck and a blue cargo truck that are intact other than flat tires (green & aquamarine). 

Dead soldiers are left mostly charred around the two wort-off trucks. Other bodies and wounded that weren't engulfed in fireballs may have been recovered. At least 5 or 6 bodies are seen outside the trucks, still then in April, one of them partly eaten by stray dogs.

Sarah Firth, 8PM 2/28: "#Ukraine: Today witnessed destroyed #Russian special forces tanks in the city of #Bucha about 20km from centre of #Kyiv after the Ukrainian military & civilians managed to repel their attack. OMON uniforms scattered on the ground & weapons logs & soldiers names (not shown here)."

Add June 4: It doesn't add much, but a box with a list attached is shown, saying:

box number 4, date-January 22, 2022

Special police unit Kemerovo. 

Mine box for 100 - 2;

mine box for 200- (illegible); 

optical grenade launcher sight (ПГО-7В3) - 1;

illegible

illegible

Bag for 2 RPG grenades - 1;

Magazine for AK-104 cartridges - 4;

Bag for 4 AK cartridges - 1 (translation: Natalia Karpova)

"Investigation-Info" would report on March 2 "Here riot police stopped - their burned bodies, along with route sheets, uniforms, jackets with patches of the special forces and continue to lie on the bridge. There is no one to pick up the corpses of the Russian military, so local stray dogs gather around them. The military says the bodies must be buried. And they turn to the Russians to "take their dead" and no longer appear here." Kyiv Depo reported a Russian officer was killed at the bridge. Neither mentions any civilian casualties. 

Scene layout, including parts covered below - note that only the bridge part with first two trucks and bodies is clearly there on 2/25. The rest probably should be, but perhaps not all of it. Even aside from that, the full story why all were there is unclear - police trucks meant to arrest who? Maybe meant to pick up the wounded and dead from the first attack? 

Add June 4: Some Crossed! 

Did they just get lost and take a wrong turn? Were there armored fighting vehicles with them so this makes more sense as a force fit to push across the river? Collapse Into Now noticed and geolocated a video posted by Ukrainian Pravda at 8:40 AM on the 25th, showing the bridge attack. Correlating features exactly is tricky, but it might be that all fires we see are across the bridge, with only smoke visible from the ones we've seen burnt west of the river. Either way, the view is about like this, bound on the left by a lone building and tree across the road, and on the right by trees, poles, and buildings:

First we see the left-hand fire behind a tree, a hot one in the middle, and another to the right. The object at and behind that fire might be three actual vehicles, maybe a tank and two trucks. The bridge must be what I've boxed in white here, so all but the left-hand fare would be across the bridge, almost at the village of Horenka on the edge of Kiev. 

Another video was taken from the same spot but inside and upstairs, and it has better resolution. Here, the other two vehicles are also lit up, and we can see a rocket exhaust trail angling in on one of them, from the left or from the south (hard to say if it's more from east or west, from Kiev or Irpin). I was able to correlate the street bridge and street signs pretty well - the yellow triangle one here is just visible at the edge of the scene map above. The rest of this continues off that frame. In this way, I can place the 4 seen fires (of I think 5+ burning vehicles) pretty exactly like so - one made it to about 40 meters from the nearest Kiev-linked cross street of Horenka. 

It's possible that others made it even further, and the stories of Russian tanks on the streets of Kiev even by the 25th aren't so crazy after all. You wouldn't expect a couple to get far or have much effect, but a few may have gotten there by just this route. There were presumably Russian vehicles that were destroyed inside Kiev city limits, it seemed early on Feb. 26, but quite a ways south of here ... (where I left off with that)

This analysis puts burned vehicles not that far past the blown section, which never seemed evident in available views, all from the Bucha side. Reviewing these, it's now clear that at least two wrecked vehicles are seen across the gap, about at the green-marked sign above. That's where it seemed like 2 vehicles were seen burning on the 25th. It almost seems like there are just these two, but foreshortening can hide a lot.

Aaand here's Collapse Into Now with an April view from the Horenka side of the bridge of multiple charred military trucks headed by one charred tank, and a truck that looks civilian except for some odd features. At least one corpse might be visible next to the tank. 

June 12, important update on outcomes: There's evidence of execution at the bridge, albeit of men already badly injured. There are several helmets seen, all of them off the soldier's heads; here three in a row near three bodies. The one on his back with hands frozen up might suggest he was carried by the knees and elbows after rigor mortis set in but was not complete, and then he was deliberately burned, locking that position. I've seen that exact thing before when Right Sector massacred and burned their political opponents in Odessa, May 2014. It's not clear where he'd be moved from or why. But there is a photo I believe is of this same man one showing he has a bullet hole in his head. It's among some photos from the bridge by Carol Guzy, Zuma Press ZUMA Press - Image Search: War Crimes Watch: BUCHA'S HORROR. Description: "April 3, 2022, Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, Ukraine: Anguished face of war, as bodies, including those that appear to be Russian soldiers burned in or near their armored vehicles in the streets of Bucha, in the suburbs of Kyiv."

Commander of the Georgian Legion, Mamuka Mamulashvili, claims a part in this operation and the mop-up. To Tim McMillan at The Debrief,  Mamulashvili "said when his unit ran out of ammunition, he started running Russian paratroopers over with his car. “We had no more bullets. I ran them over in my BMW,” Mamulashvili proudly chuckled. “I can show you the dents in my BMW if you want.” " This article tries to relate the ill-fated column's story, citing its leader, Lieutenant Colonel Astkhov Mikhailovich, captured injured but alive, with others, at the bridge. Mikhailovich said his crew simply got separated from the rest of their column, didn't know where they were going, and got on the bridge by accident. They were in "three KamAZ 6×6 armored vehicles, an olive-drab GAZ-66 4×4 truck, a Tigr all-terrain vehicle, and a BTR armored personnel carrier." I'm not sure if that's supposed to be the same 5+ vehicles we've seen east of the gap, apparently set ablaze while driving? Or from other vehicles that were stopped further ahead? But the story makes sense. These few trucks and a BTR would have no business pushing into Kiev behind no stronger force. Their crossing effort was partly successful, but seemingly accidental.

 

Right Sector?

Finally ... video 3 above shows an interesting detail - a red-and-black flag similar to that used by the infamous ultranationalist group Right Sector (Правий сектор, Pravyy Sektor). It's visible flapping in this view just before sunset (of what day?), but not there in another view just after sunset on what seemed to be the 28th (3:12 in video 4). To follow-up:  Is this related to Teroborona, Territorial Defense? IS this Right Sector mobilized, or someone of a similar mindsets or methods? 

For years this ultra-nationalist group was snubbed as too extreme to bring into the armed forces of Ukraine, like the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion was. But following the Russian invasion to "De-Nazify" Ukraine, it seems they're being brought in. This was rumored to be in the works back in early April. On May 14 Right Sector posted a photo story on their Facebook page: 

⚔️ Fighters of the 2nd Battalion of the DUK "Right Sector" swore an oath of loyalty to the people of Ukraine." 

That seems to be the same flag - just as lacking in a white logo across the middle - that may have recently earned some leverage, notably in Bucha. I think I also saw something about a Right Sector unit being ushered in, in a ceremony with torchlight, and it was posted on the Facebook page of the Bucha City Council. But I just spent hours trying to re-find it the same way - loading all posts and scrolling down and down. Every time I get to early April, my stupid computer runs out of memory, even if I just re-started it and did nothing else. Anyone more capable: it was way down there (I think), maybe mid-late March, and hopefully still is.   

Nearby Collateral Damage

Next: some related scenes to the northwest on the E373, partly and maybe all on the 25th, but at least some of it came at least hours later. 

A Russian AFV was also filmed parked behind a shopping complex on the E373, with soldiers positioned in the field, and shooting heard in the mid-distance (Rob Lee on Twitter). These assumed Russian SOF were seen on 2/25, so then or earlier, and it can hardly be earlier. Provisionally geolocated by Collapse Into Now to 50.5548425,30.2746448. Facing SSE into the sun (through some clouds), I'd say this is late morning, probably after the bridge incident. Seen here: the back of shopping center at left, "tank" at far corner, 2-3 soldiers standing among the trees, one laying flat most of the time. Nothing very interesting happens.

An apparently later scene was posted, earliest I can now find, the afternoon of 2/28 and with afternoon lighting (back/west side of store is lit). It shows the same area from the street just south of the store - most likely filmed on the 25th, or possibly any day between, including the 28th. This has what looks to me like a truck - not the AFV seen in the other view - further behind that store (as if hiding), now damaged and vigorously burning. The trees all around are stripped of bark and branches, and at least 4 cars on this street are stopped at odd angles, damaged and abandoned or perhaps with drivers killed, and still inside, except for one brown car with a wounded man sitting behind it as someone else helps wash the blood off his face. 

The clear explanation is that truck was shelled, perhaps along with another target in the area, and the rest is collateral damage - primary fragmentation marks look a bit loke bullet holes, but often more irregular, as seen here. However, the two postings I've seen explain "The Russian occupation troops shot at the cars of civil citizens" (Ukrainian Struggle Centrer) or "Russian troops roaming in the streets and woods, firing on civilians" (marqs on Twitter)  

A white car with windows out is also abandoned at an angle just west of the one with the injured man. Two more cars are seen in the near distance to the east, one of them having burned. Past these, there's a railroad overpass - lit from this side means it's well into the afternoon here. Just beyond on the left see a red fence, gray house, yellow house, no vehicles obstructing the view. here on Feb. 25, 26, 27 or 28.

The scene changes later, though it's not clear when, and stayed that way into April. An army truck of a different, older style was apparently trying to head north away from the bridge - likely after some kind of attack there - and was struck right at the railroad tracks, setting it ablaze as it rolled under the tracks. At least three more civilian cars behind this truck were damaged badly enough that at least a couple of fatalities seem certain.  I lost two different video links and the better set of still frames before I made this passable composite view with details on the cars. Apparently posted by Gerashenko and by "British Intelligence" on Telegram. Then I found a better copy: Денис Казанський on Twitter

Timeline: Assuming this scene occurred and wasn't just staged, it happened later than the afternoon scene above - which in turn must be after the bridge was destroyed well before noon, on the first plausible day for such things, the 25th. So this must be some later shelling that, for all we know, happened later on the 25th, 26th, 27th or 28th ... or in the middle or near the end of March or start of April for all I know. 

Add June 4: The attack by Fora did happen later the same day - Marqs posted the video at 5:52 PM on the 25th, based on earlier postings. I already cited that posting but didn't notice. Credit for noticing: Collapse Into Now. Smoke from that should not be visible in the new 8:40 AM video because it happened in the afternoon. It's still not clear when the truck under the tracks was hit.

Damage summary: moderate collateral damage - light to moderate damage to hones visible in some views - City Market grocery store - there's a big sign for it on the bridge - was hit north side, some fire damage - 7 noted cars badly affected, surely with several injuries (one of them seen), and probably a few deaths (maybe quite a few of them, if any of those cars were packed with refugees - none of them seems packed like that).  No civilian bodies are seen in later images from April; anyone injured or killed was probably helped away by survivors and bystanders, or later on by other locals - unlike those Russian troops still there at filming time, well over a month after they died. The blowing of the bridge may have caused additional traffic injuries or deaths we don't see because they're in the river, and it disrupted civilian traffic, and hampered evacuation. 

That's pretty mild stuff compared to the blown bridge on the P30 highway to Romanivka from southern Irpin. Here, civilian traffic was moving, but no Russian military traffic. As noted in the top map, a van wound up flipped in the river and briefly on fire. Another scene shows some 45 civilian cars at least stopped at the bridge headed towards Kiev. At least one was apparently hit with direct artillery strike, flipping it another car completely off the road and badly damaging several cars around. A child's doll was dropped as people fled one of these cars. likely most of these were stuffed with refugees trying to flee.  There were probably at least 6-8 deaths right here and many serious injuries. The fragmentation marks and the way cars were flipped off the SW side of the road suggests this artillery was fired from the northeast, the Kiev side, not from any Russians coming from the north and west. (video - video)

Add June 4: It was probably hundreds of vehicles stuck - 300+ for sure - with several dozen badly damaged, probably dozens killed and 100+ seriously injured, at the least. But noting it didn't happen all at once. Apparently, people kept driving there, parking, and then walking the plank bridge to cross. Some cars will be just parked then. The area way to the west (yellow line) was reportedly hit with Russian shelling March 9. But as I noted, the cars flipped violently off the southwest side of the highway, suggesting artillery fire from the northeast - Ukrainian-controlled areas in Kiev or Irpin.

... And compared to what we'll see in part 3 on Vokzalna street in Bucha, dropping the bridge on the E373 was pretty mild. 

Add July 21: overview map of the E373 attack with a Maxar satellite view (Feb. 28, I believe - USA Today tweet and another tweet from the 28th) worked in that misses the foremost vehicle (red square), for the most accurate mapping yet. Total 13 marked military vehicles - 7 marked with circles west of the gap, 6 with square dots to the east. Note that one vehicle seen on satellite (teal square dot) seems to be a smaller truck, maybe with a hole in the back but more intact than most - it's apparently absent at the time of later videos. In fact, it may be absent from footage around sunset on the 28th, so removed over the course of that day (see above: "at least two wrecked vehicles are seen across the gap"- we'd see an intact truck on the left if it were there). Maybe it was a Ukrainian vehicle driven in there to assess the scene or something. An empty space of charred pavement just ahead of that is also marked - visually, it suggests two vehicles ahead of it had burned and were moved - one would be the green truck, and the other unclear. Ignoring the suggestion, it might be just the one truck, and it rolled ahead naturally or was pushed.