Who is Really Flattening Mariupol?

<< Russia Conquers Flattened Cities: Cause and Effect

March 14 

(rough, incomplete - last updates 3/20)

Intro to ... Putin Killing His Own People in Mariupol?

The Ukrainian port city of Mariupol is under siege, encircled by Russin forces, and it's being destroyed by bombs and missiles. The mayor’s office reported at first 1,100 then 1,582, now 2,187 civilians confirmed killed in Mariupol - officials had been saying as many as 20,000 had actually been killed - scenes show wrapped bodies laid in a trench-like mass grave - some were still beneath rubble, struggling in the hospital, gravely wounded, and we get a sense this will only get worse. Below from dramatic new drone footage as new random explosions are still occurring, in what we can hope is an apocalyptic finale https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1503325318110756868  

- overall damage, by satellite -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVO0_WH9xC8 - locals may be filming, but not so many of their views getting out via mainstream or Kiev-linked sources after March 8 

This destruction has been escalating as a Russian victory looks imminent and a surrounded Ukrainian force led by Azov Battalion grows more and more desperate. But as the overall aggressor, this is all blamed on Russian forces without a second thought, even though the people of Mariupol are largely Russian-speaking people with a historical affinity for Russia and the Donbas separatists, and who largely feel occupied by Ukrainian forces.

Following the coup-like events of 2014, locals elected on May 10 to separate from Ukraine and join the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic. That was only changed with a Ukrainian military offensive in June, after a brutal failed attempt on May 9 had tried to head off that vote. (Wikipedia: Battle of Mariupol (2014) - 2014 Donbas status referendums). This violence and the subsequent occupation Mariupol was spearheaded by the infamous anti-Russian Neo-Nazi Azov battalion; were in fact created with Mariupol and its surroundings (the gate to the Azov Sea) specifically in mind. 

Russia's supposed motive now - in case that needed explaining - President Zelinski laid it out: “They are bombing [Mariupol] 24 hours a day ... launching missiles,” They kill children. They destroy maternity hospitals. They destroy hospitals, why? So Ukraine has no more children.” “This is happening in all of our country," he added, but especially in Mariupol, for some reason that needs no explaining. "They have destroyed dozens of hospitals, hundreds of schools and day cares, they are destroying universities, they are destroying residential quarters,” Zelenskyy said. “Imagine how we can survive, what it means for us Ukrainians and our families, for our children. What it means when you cannot even find the peace in church because Russians are bombing even the churches.” (a mosque was reportedly hit in Mariupol (Mother Jones) - reports were false (Anadolu) - but quite likely it has been really hit since then)

We've been told Putin hates Ukrainians and wants them all dead, but what he's doing to Mariupol means Putin and all his men here are so insane they'd kill "their own" - people who would largely welcome a Russian occupation over what they had been living through, if it could happen peacefully. But they get their lives and wills crushed anyway, for no reason that needs explained. A Channel 4 report notes the issue: https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1501939052425056258

It's almost as if Putin does things like this just to allow Michael McFaul and Rachel Maddow, for example, to say Putin is worse than Hitler (as noted by Aaron Mate). Hitler mainly killed other types, ethno/linguistically speaking, whereas Putin mindlessly "slaughters the very people he said he has come to liberate."

Maddow Blog deleted this, conceding Hitler killed "millions of Germans" and she needn't go Whoopi Goldberg and get into their "race" or anything. So Putin is only ...  whatever, comparable to Hitler in some new way that was just proven, somehow ... because of what was happening in Mariupol. 

So let's have a look at that, but FIRST some more context most will have no idea about.

A 2015 Precedent?

It reminds me of a briefly-infamous episode on January 24, 2015. Donetsk People's Republic forces drew near the northeastern Vostochniy district (alt Vastochniy - I wrongly used Vostichny before), vowing to re-liberate Mariupol from Kiev's occupiers any day, and starting in Vostochniy. Allegedly, their next step was to fire some 100+ grad rockets, scattered across the whole district - except the north edge where a Ukrainian checkpoint was - into homes and public markets, all in less than a minute. The attack killed at least 30 and injured over 100, likely including the separatists' own family members, allies and sympathizers. Many were reportedly locally based, coming back home with friends to liberate, not massacre, the rest. See ACLOS Analysis and Mariupol Attack is a War Crime: The Evidence points to Kiev  George Eliasson., Strategic Culture, January 29, 2015

The militia near Mariupol is comprised of local city residents. Like soldiers in Donetsk and Lugansk, the city is their home town. Its where there family and friends live. Its where they grew up, went to school, and work. Their own children go to school there. Is there a benefit to firing rockets at your own neighbors and family?

HRW etc. blamed separatists and assumed accident, based on rockets coming from the east where DPR was generally based. Kiev's forces could also operate there if they really wanted to, were sneaky, and did it briefly, for like the 30-60 seconds this attack required. But it doesn't seem anyone really considered that.

As late as 2018 Bellingcat "independently confirmed" SBU audio recordings that proved DPR forces were to blame, and added that high-level Russians helped them attack their own home base on this special day, or in their efforts to hit this army checkpoint north of town (yellow). They attacked at once from multiple positions, - not just east and NE but also southeast and apparently even south, which other sources deny. And from all angles these crews missed the checkpoint 100x over, by at least 500 meters and up to ~2.5 km? 

Perhaps, like Korotkov, Bellingcat et al. realize the Azov-SBU allegations require deliberate terrorism by their enemies, directed against their own people, for no reason that needs explaining. I never did review the Bellingcat/SBU/Azov "findings" to see if the (scriptwriters?) admit to the terrorist motive, or leave it at simple, sub-human ineptitude. Neither makes real-world sense. Ukrainian state-sponsored terrorism is still the most logical explanation for this incident, if not the most comforting one, and Bellingcat would only be helping them clumsily whitewash it with yet another layer of absurd anti-Russia propaganda.

Voice of America, March 4, 2015: relates some of the dark side about Mariupol, "a divided city," where people spy for the Russians, or get accused of it, get beaten and carried away to never return. The rocket massacre is mentioned: 

Perhaps nowhere is Mariupol’s atmosphere of mistrust more evident than in the suburb of Vastochniy. When a rocket attack in January killed 30 people here, Human Rights Watch investigators said it was highly likely that the rebels were to blame.

But in spite of the evidence, many continue to believe that the government was responsible, though they are too afraid to say so openly.

“The shelling of Vastochniy district, the shelling in Donetsk, when they hit the trolley bus, the shelling in Volnovaha when they hit the bus, 75 percent of the people here are sure that this was a provocation by the Ukrainian government,” said a man using the name Pasha.

Externally, the attack worked to Kiev's and the Azov Battalion's advantage, showing their enemies to be "terrorists" who mindlessly kill their own - as Euromaidan press explained, insects infested with a certain hair-worm larva will become self-destructive just like this so, bizarre as it seems, they cheer for their own killers. The infested insects see it differently, but they would, wouldn't they?

That "hair worms" point was included a bit askew in this rough blog post from 2015: Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Mariupol Market Massacre, part 4: Whose Terrorism? From that:

The Azov Battalion's reconnaissance unit commander, Serhiy Korotkov, and his armed men were sent into Vostochniy on January 24 and made a videotaped tour. A short edit of this was posted by anti-Kiev activist (now private - screen grab at right) as Korotkov “explaining why Mariupol was shelled.” I think he does explain it. 

While the fires burn behind him, he explains (translated) "anybody can check for oneself that this is not an accidental hit. There is no Ukrainian military here, and never have been. In this area, as graffiti on some walls shows, some fans of the Russian World live. Those who want the Russian World - see, here you got it." Earlier in the video he reported from Kievskaya street; "what's noteworthy is that over here we have "Left Sector" (opponents of Kiev-allied fascist group Right Sector). The Communiaki (derogatory term for Communists) received what they wanted." As he explains this, he alternates between smiling with amusement, and trying somewhat not to. It's hard to remember he's blaming someone else for this development. But try to remember that, and that his story makes no sense. 

Another Azov fighter, to a Ukrainian journalist in another video (now deleted, screen grab at right) following the day's rocket attack: "outta my face. Outta my face, bitch." Not translated. Would this apparent American mercenary assist in shelling "his own" Ukrainian city full of Russian-speaking "Communiaki"? He just might.

Back to the present...

Residents Trapped 

The ICRC handbook on the rules of law (PDF) says: 

4.3.1.3 Removal of civilians: Civilians must, to the maximum extent feasible, be removed from places where the risk of attack is greatest, i.e. the vicinity of military objectives.  

Yet most residents remain trapped in the city, and both sides blame each other. Various re-published reports and claims: 

March 5: "Residents of #Mariupol gathered to evacuate, but the #Militants of "#Azov" do not let them leave." 300 were allowed to leave on busses, then 3/6: "A second attempt to evacuate civilians from the besieged port city of Mariupol, in southern Ukraine, has collapsed as both Ukrainians and Russians blame each other for violating a previously agreed ceasefire. ... A source from the Azov Battalion" told Al-Jazeera that Russian forces had started shelling as efforts to get people on buses in Mariupol began. Al Jazeera was not able to independently verify the claim."

3/6 "Azov deputy commander in a video statement today, saying there is no evacuation and telling Mariupol residents to stay in place. New day, same bullshit. Only about 300 people managed to leave on buses before Azov shut it down." Not clear which 300 - first in line? children? Azov Battalion's friends? 3/6 #UKRAINE: Yesterday, Russia had initiated the organization of a humanitarian corridor for the residents of Mariupol.  Upon arrival at the place, the Azov Regiment (on video) said that there would be no evacuation. The woman's reaction is expected." Ukrainian soldiers explaining people can't leave, and should consider themselves lucky not to get shot (by "the Russians" of course). https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1500351736677998595

March 8, Ukrainian official report the Russian military was bombing the humanitarian corridor to Zaporizhzhia, again breaking the ceasefire and endangering people who had been told to stay put. 

March 9 "The DPR army published a video with the story of local residents about how the Azov militants do not allow them to evacuate from Mariupol – they build barricades from cars on humanitarian roads, mortars are also in the courtyards of sleeping areas, from where they are shelling" https://twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1501513136918122497

3/11 "DPR servicemen evacuate residents of Mariupol under fire from neo-nazi battalion Azov militants." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_vjx_dMUno Some locals speak well of their rescuers, time spent walking, waiting, avoiding the Ukrainian military. A car is seen with some bullet marks where they grazed the hood. Signs taped on the back windows say "children."

Elsewhere I've seen other locals rescued by DPR fighters, explaining most won't be allowed to leave but will wish they could - Azov needs them as human shields and/or propaganda fodder. After all, Russia can't be blamed for slaughtering innocents if someone evacuates those people ahead of the fighting. 

March 13: amid this worsening destruction by Russia, "About 400,000 residents are stuck in the city, as Russia continues to block evacuation."  https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1503033608633737218

March 14 is the video at top - a truly apocalyptic scene engineered all at once, almost as if for that footage of Russia's epically illogical war crimes. All together, we're to believe the Russians aren't just killing their own for no good reason, but trying to kill as many as possible, blocking the exits before blasting the hell out of every place that might contain innocents, especially children, as always making the best case possible for another "No Fly Zone."

2022: A War Waged On AND From Homes, Schools, Hospitals 

this time in 2022, the basic formula might be the same as in 2015, but the stakes are higher, the weapons are heavier, and the Ukrainian military targets are often  not on the edge of town but AT the civilian spots that get bombed, as Russians from Russia are now killing their own brainwashed people, again for no reason that needs explained. 

countless reports and several videos of forces based in kindergartens, schools, hospitals, and homes - March 9 video, Odessa https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1501663027791282177 - photos making the rounds https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1500369471965478916 - noted above: https://twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1501513136918122497 - more details perhaps forthcoming...

At right is a photograph of an army unit with a tank parked illegally, in Mariupol, which was "used by @israel_mid_ru to support their claim the Azov battalion was operating at the Mariupol maternity hospital" (since deleted, it seems). If they claimed that was the hospital and not just a precedent for such basing, that was shown wrong; Bellingcat noted the scene was "geolocated by @digitaljonah to 47.101092, 37.671539, over 10km away from the actual hospital site." 

The work appears sound. Per latest labels on Google Maps, they're based at  ЦДЮТ "Солнечный" - a "gym" - seemingly part of a "Center for Children and Youth Creativity" system, "Solnechny" branch, where young girls used to learn ballet dancing, per a photo. It's at the eastern edge of the city, an area since taken by Russian forces. If those had ever fired on a unit based here, even in defense, the center would be damaged. And we'd hear it's because Putin hates children and Russians just do as they're told.  

ICRC handbook on the rules of law (PDF) says 

4.3.1.2 Location of military objectives outside densely populated areas: Military objectives must, to the maximum extent feasible, be located outside densely populated areas. 

5.4.6.2 Cultural property: general restrictions on attacks: Special care must be taken in military operations to avoid damage to buildings dedicated to religion, art, science, education or charitable purposes and historic monuments, unless they are military objectives. 

Noting to be fair: Russian forces have also been seen sheltering in civilian areas and buildings, and getting attacked next to them, causing damage. If the buildings are vacant and not too near peoples' homes, this may barely count as a war crime, for either side. But since someone didn't let people flee and the city remains pretty full, such vacant spots will be hard to find. And also, any basing at a populated civilian target provides little to no legitimate excuse for attacking that site with heavy weapons. For either side. 

Tanks and Snipers

AP video shows tank and sniper fire in besieged Mariupol

By MSTYSLAV CHERNOV, Associated Press, March 12, 2022

Heart-wrenching video of a woman describing how one of her children just died when their building collapsed from a mortar shell in the inhabited war-zone of Mariupol. It's not made clear who might have launched that shell and why, but it reads as presumed Russian.

And Russians were filmed attacking homes in the city ... video of tank backing up into a bus maybe meant as a barricade, behind which sits another tank - it fires a shell - cut to assumed target (probably of a different shot) - a corner balcony of an apartment block with an excellent view (great sniper perch) is destroyed in a blazing impact. "An Associated Press journalist witnessed tanks firing on a 9-story apartment block ...The video he shot shows shells exploding as they hit the apartment block, already severely damaged, setting balconies on fire. It wasn’t possible to tell whether the Russian positions had first received fire from the targeted locations." ...but it seemed possible enough to mention, maybe considering the Russians HAD just taken fire from somewhere? The wording suggests as much. 

Another shot is filmed hitting more into the middle of the building, but also in an upper floor with a good view, and starting a big fire inside ...  report adds: "a building that was hit by tank fire during the day still burned later in the night. No one was around to extinguish the flames." Hopefully everyone who lives there is evacuated or hiding in shelters, and it's just homes that are lost in such incidents, but people are trapped in and near all this, and it gets worse besides murkier. 2,000+ dead already is plausible.

"It wasn’t possible to tell whether the Russian positions had first received fire from the targeted locations" from presumably Ukrainian forces maybe based there. Azov-type snipers might have been shooting at Russians from civilian homes and inviting return fire against the same. Seems that's well-illustrated in Borodyanka at least. 

It's also suggested Russian troops already fanned out inside the Mariupol, and took up positions as snipers in spots including one with in the same area this AP crew was - "At another point, a medical worker was hit in the hip by sniper fire. She survived, but conditions in the hospital were deteriorating." (electricity in the city has been reported as both off and on but being rationed)

It's not specified whose sniper shot the medic, except it's clearly Russian. It's easy now to see how all these Russian troops were ordered to hate medics and the media, besides children, just like the deranged Putin does. So they try their best to kill any they see, and to do it on camera when possible, so everyone can see the truth even as Russian words deny it, and the world will be, like, terrorized, not just provoked. 

And these guys who could refuse the stupid orders, pretend they didn't have a clear line of fire, etc. - they keep pulling the trigger, firing the missiles, in total desperation as they're about to take over this whole bloody mess. What is wrong with those Russians? Are they, like, subhuman or something? To believe Ukrainian officials, they must be.

Recall tank may have been taking out a sniper. As far as we know, it was the same one that shot at the medical-media crew, and that very firing is what prompted the Russian attack. Same area and time to be witnessed raises that to likely enough - how many snipers from how many sides would be shooting there and then?  ...either way,  the report adds of that tank: "Ukrainian fighters later destroyed it, notching up one small victory." The reader cheers.

Incident Analysis

Who Attacked the Children's and Maternity Hospital in Mariupol?

Dated summary to revise - see post and sub-posts collected there for evolving work.

One location alleged by Russian forces on March 9, is a Maternity hospital. My initial analysis on damage pattern needs review after seeing more images (including this one at right) - some Russian claims don't pan out (just one actress: false - the other pregnant woman of just 2 seen by them is someone else, who reportedly died later from her injuries.) - Russia had just alleged that Azov militant had closed the hospital and taken it over as a base - illegal but precedented - that's denied, but quite possibly true when it was publicized, but maybe not for long after that - no clear sign after the strike one way or another - 

It's not clear yet, to me, what happened - possibly a Russian attack that illegally targeted an illegal base of the Azov battalion at great risk to people including children and pregnant women - Russian officials re-raising this point and calling civilian casualties "fake" suggests they did attack, or could have attacked, this site. They also deny conducting any airstrikes, and that they're not sure what happened, sowing some confusion.

and we can't rule out Azov moved when their location was revealed, for tactical reasons and/or because the hospital people asked them to leave - they might have moved to a new and secret base like in orphanage, and then fire back on their old position with a huge missile to emulate a Russian bombing (the Russians had just set themselves up for it by publicly naming the target - IF they did - see post for ambiguity explained). 

Whether this is the story or not, the image makes a good metaphor for the big picture as I fear it to be; if they can't be based in your city, the Azov Battalion has no use for it, except as material to use against Russia by destroying it in their name. As someone once put it with a smile "Those who want the Russian World - see, here you got it."

Drama Theater and Art School Shelter Bombings, 3/16 and 3/19/2022 

Up to 1,300 and then about 400 people, mostly women and children, are (as of 3/20) feared trapped or killed by Russian bombing of two large shelters in central Mariupol - an unprecedented but well-timed war crime, the March 16 bombing defied clear markings of children present, and it might have been a planned provocation, as local sources seemingly reported 4 days in advance - as of March 20, there are reports of 130-200 survivors and zero deaths confirmed between the two incidents, but that could change.

More Hell for Russian-Occupied Mariupol

Some geolocated shelling of interest.

more, conclusion forthcoming