Mariupol Theater Bombing, 3/16/2022

< Who is Really Flattening Mariupol?

Mariupol Theater Bombing 3/16/2022

March 18, 2022

last updates 3/30

(rough, incomplete)

On March 17 16, between 500 and 1,300 residents of Mariupol, largely women and children, were reportedly taking shelter from the city's destruction in a basement at a historic drama theater. ДЕТИ - "CHILDREN" in Russian - was marked in huge characters on the pavement at either end of the building, as seen in satellite photos released by Maxar (and here: modified from a March 15 photo given to HRW). 

People love to highlight and point to those letters because Russian forces were just proven to have bombed that shelter anyway. Initial reports suggested most of those hiding there may have died, then news was put out the basement shelter they were in had held up, allowing perhaps everyone to survive. But the shelter itself remained buried, they say, and questions remain with no clarification, as of first writing almost two days later (and still upon updates on the 20th and 21st). 

Debate continues whether Putin and his accomplices just didn't care about the giant letters ДЕТИ, or if the promise of dead children actually drove their decision to drop that bomb, but the latter view seems to be winning. And still a few stubborn souls argue the Russians might be correct in denying any air strikes in Mariupol that day, on any military targets or on any well-marked civilian shelters. 

MoD statement: "During daylight on March 16, Russian aviation carried out no missions involving strikes on ground targets within Mariupol limits." https://tass.com/world/1423275 This denial could be false, and AFAIK it could be a dodge - I'm not sure when the bombing occurred, be it in daylight hours or that night. But do take note that no one has produced a radar track or anything of the sort to prove the Russians are lying, and I predict they never will. An SBU-provided audio recording might well surface, but these are often very dubious. And until someone can provide proof of a Russian jet even passing over this spot, there is no reason to believe it happened, and instead, there is reason to suspect it did NOT happen, which would mean the Ukrainian side is lying. 

And, of course, their forces in Mariupol are led by the Anti-Russian neo-Nazis of the Azov Battalion, who are doomed and desperate now, and may have no further use for Mariupol and its mostly Russian-speaking residents, except as human shields or propaganda fodder. And it's Azov that traps people in the city to die, per the more credible reports. DPR forces manage to smuggle out a few, under fire: here a car labeled ДЕТИ was shot at, and not by Putin's men. 

Finally, this incident includes an unusual twist: locals in Mariupol were credited with reports, publicized on March 12, that a version of this attack was already planned by Ukraine as a false-flag provocation; people were herded into a shelter run by Azov or allies, which some claim was rigged with bombs to mimic a Russian airstrike - and these claims were published 4 or 5 days before that airstrike was reported. This is obviously of interest, but it also raises potential issues I'd like to address here.

other points of interest I'll address here: 

• what does it mean that someone did this attack despite its being predicted?
• the lingering lack of clarity on death toll - what might that mean?
• the differing stories from people who've left, and reports that everyone was allowed to leave - hopefully true, but not quite sure yet
• the physical evidence 
• some circumstantial evidence, including the second/replacement shelter bombing claims 

Basics: theater Драмтеатр  

Location: 47.095989° 37.548896° - about one kilometer east of the Maternity and children's hospital provocatively attacked by someone a week earlier.

Death toll: 0 to ~1,200 - yet to be clarified.

A Troubling Prediction

https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1504163614218936325

TWEET + SOURCE: https://t.me/novostldnr/2145

published March 12, 2022, at 23:29 Moscow Time.

As translated:

"Zelensky is preparing two [false flag] provocations in Mariupol. ... The second provocation Zelensky is preparing  ... after the failed provocation using the Mariupol maternity hospital" (see here) "Ukrainian military, together with the administration of the drama theatre, gathered women, children, and the elderly from Mariupol in the Drama Theatre building, so as to - given a good opportunity - detonate the building and then scream around the world that this is the RF airforce and that there should be an immediate "no fly zone" over Ukraine.

The essence of it was tweeted March 12 by Elena Evdokimov in English - people searching found few if any other instances there, but Russian and other language searches (Spanish?) and across more platforms might turn up more. This was published and there was a small buzz. But no Russian officials or diplomats brought it up in advance, that I've seen. They have cited it later alongside their denials MoD: "According to the verified information, militants of the Azov nationalist battalion carried out another bloody provocation by blowing up the rigged theater building,” https://tass.com/world/1423275

I had my doubts initially, but especially since it really was out there, it seemed "too convenient" or ... something unsettling. On reflection, I guess what's so odd is the event was predicted and yet it happened. Before in Syria, the Russians would predict a terrorist chemical false-flag attack was planned, and then it wouldn't happen, maybe because that risked proving Russia's point. 

Here, if Azov planned this, they went ahead despite this plot spoiler. That would be a bold move, and we should wonder if they have a plan this plays into.

So far, I haven't seen any answer from Western governments or experts as to how this event was predicted like that. But once they do, logically, they will say the Russians saw that prediction - perhaps after seeding it themselves - and acted to kill Mariupol innocents in order to blame Azov, not for no reason at all like usual. Russia is the only country that actually plans false-flag events, don't you know? And they do it all the time. Adding such a concrete motive could make this an especially effective event. And still, it could stand little chance of success at convincing any governments outside Asia or the global South, and allies there don't need convincing anyway. 

Still, lock-step minds will take this as Putin's clever plan, assisted by dangerous characters who spread his murderous disinformation. And as of writing, there may be some further twist that will make that project read as even more sinister, and those helping could be easily discredited and demonized.  

Still, there was the prediction of an AZOV FALSE-FLAG, which definitely has its own logic (see...) this might just be the smoking gun it seems, reflecting direct witness knowledge of the true events. But considering the dangers of this information war, my advice to truth-seekers is to acknowledge this evidence as ambiguous - likely very high value, but possibly something else that's too tricky to mess with - leave it undecided for the time, and focus on the other evidence that exists with regard to motive, means, and opportunity, and especially, as possible determining what physically happened.

It might also be worth looking at the first provocation alleged: "Ukrainian artillerists shelling the territory of the mosque from their positions at [Zinsteva] Balka in Nizhniaya [Lower] Kirkova," with an eye to hitting it eventually and provoking Turkey to retaliate against Russia. If existing damage can be seen (?), and those spots mapped, this claim can be checked for physical consistency at least. (not planning to do that myself, but if it suddenly seemed easier I might)

And this same day alert, "Irina" says, shortly before the bombing, that a defector from the Azov Battalion had fled Mariupol and leaked additional information to Donetsk separatists, NOT related to the bomb plot, but to Azov basing at the theater and hundreds held there under armed guard, besides information on prior atrocities in Mariupol. I'm not convinced about that, but very interested to hear if anything comes of his evidence. https://twitter.com/Irina48205830/status/1504183941258956805/photo/1

No Word on Deaths

that's not the only headache with this case... twists: shelter held, but it was buried and rescuers still digging to get to it - but also people were coming out, somehow - 

"People sheltering in a theater in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol are emerging from the building after it was bombed, the former head of the Donetsk region said Thursday."

Ukrainian lawmaker Serhiy Taruta said on Thursday that there were no casualties reported so far after the strike.

"After a terrible night of uncertainty, on the morning of the 22nd day of the war, finally good news from Mariupol! The bomb shelter has held out," Taruta wrote in a Facebook post. "People are coming out alive!"

An official at the Mariupol mayor's office was quoted by the Reuters news agency as saying that the bomb shelter withstood the bombing, adding that authorities believed survivors were trapped underneath.

"The bomb shelter held. Now the rubble is being cleared. There are survivors. We don't know about the [number of] victims yet," mayoral advisor Petro Andrushchenko told Reuters.

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-mariupol-theater-bomb-shelter-holds-after-blast/a-61158421?maca=en-Twitter-sharing

AP: "More than a day after the airstrike, there were no reports of deaths. With communications disrupted across the city and movement difficult because of shelling and other fighting, there were conflicting reports on whether anyone had emerged from the rubble."

“We hope and we think that some people who stayed in the shelter under the theater could survive,” Petro Andrushchenko, an official with the mayor’s office, told The Associated Press. ... Other officials had said earlier that some people had gotten out." 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-kyiv-europe-world-news-303fbd14ea7d3f131abc9b3d5739123f

A woman speaking on an Azov Battalion video, elsewhere date March 17, speaks of difficult rescue translted in a Telegraph video as saying there are or were 800 people inside, and "when the building collapsed only around 100 people ran away," as if on their own feet, just after the bombing, prior to any rescue. Others have reported people "coming out" as if on their own, but this "around 100" could be the same 130 reportedly "rescued" by about this time:

By 12:09 PM on the 17th, "According to MP Olga Stefanyshyn, about 130 people have already been rescued from the rubble." Later on the 17th "Ukraine’s human rights commissioner Liudmyla Denisova said there was no update on figures released, which reported 130 people rescued from a total of 1,300 people believed to have been sheltering in the building." On Friday the 18th, pres. Zelensky repeated this claim, still with no update. (CNN) 

Belkis Wille, Senior Crisis & Conflict Researcher at Human Rights Watch heard another 70 had been rescued, one injured and the rest not. 7:58 PM on the 18th: Saga at #Mariupol theater continues- I just spoke to city's deputy mayor who says rescue workers have been able to rescue 200 ppl, including 1 woman who is wounded and in hospital. He said they have yet to get information about the 100s more that might still be under the rubble

https://twitter.com/belkiswille/status/1504879954344955913

3/19, 3/20 no update - "street fighting in the city centre is hampering efforts to rescue hundreds of people trapped inside" the theater basement (BBC)

Rescue was slow because, as First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Emine Dzheppar said, "Russians hampering rescue operations by opening constant fire." The accompanying video from azov.org.ua shows a guy quietly filming the scene, from close range, with no one else in sight, no sign of constant attack, and no signs of any rescue operation even attempted. It is early, with some smoke still rising.

Some rescue efforts were shown on a March 17 Azov video: 2 women preparing to go in, equipped with at least one headlamp and one jug of water, but they seem in no rush as they explain how difficult it is, or will be. (composite view below - note FWIW the ДЕТИ still visible under the debris) https://twitter.com/JPaulKirby/status/1504552573667315716 

But otherwise, none of this emergence or rescue is shown in videos or photos anyone I know has found. Times are very dangerous, communications ae unreliable, and electricity is scarce, and the Russians allegedly have blown up many of the city's fire trucks, rescue gear and rescuers. Still, it seems there's strangely little to show at this site, and that held until news of a new drama unfolding just meters away; 400 sheltering civilians trapped or killed beneath an art school bombed by Russia the night of the 19th (see below, "Circumstantial Evidence").

Add 3/22: ~34 cars parked in the days before the bombing, ~0 in the days after. Trapped people don't drive off. Others might take their cars. Maybe everyone with a car drove off ahead of time? We've heard from a few without cars who hitched rides out in the days before. We've heard from one family who say they climbed from the rubble and hitched a ride out of town - apparently with someone else who escaped the rubble, meaning there was at least one car left at the time of the bombing. Interesting. Compare images above and below of east and west lots, or see here, if it's still allowed.

Different Stories From People Who Left

Some people who managed to leave the building before it became rubble have shared their stories: "Some refugees from Mariupol have already been placed, including in Crimea. A relative of my close friend, who was yesterday at the Drama Theater of Mariupol, has already written from Simferopol. He said that there were more than a thousand civilians in the theater"

https://twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1504403807878492168 One version on Telegram comes from these people, via DPR-connected sources. Some said Azov Battalion let "all" of the civilians go before the blast for some reason. These reports add that bombs had been rigged on and under the roof. 

BBC reports a different story from "Kate", another local who got out of the city. 

As Russia's relentless assault continued, Kate said the buildings around the theatre had been either damaged or destroyed. "We knew we had to run away because something terrible would happen soon," she said.

A day before the attack, Kate and her son left the site. "We jumped in a car while the theatre and the area were being shelled," she said. They shared the vehicle with a family of four, who had brought four dogs and a cat.

"We asked to go with them, because we didn't have our own [car]," she said. They were part of convoy of about 2,000 cars that escaped Mariupol on Tuesday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60776929   

This story is probably being repeated a lot and will prevail for western audiences. It makes clear that no Azov people held anyone against their will, that people could leave at will, and that Russian bombs alone chased them into and out of that shelter. 

So at least two differing stories of people leaving before the blast, both told after leaving the city - maybe no one who remains in Mariupol after leaving the shelter, either before or after the blast. One story has perhaps everyone vacated prior to it. 

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/03/16/ukraine-mariupol-theater-hit-russian-attack-sheltered-hundreds

"On March 16, just hours before the attack, Human Rights Watch interviewed over a dozen Mariupol residents who had escaped the city the day before in a convoy of hundreds of private cars and had arrived in Zaporizhzhia. Two people interviewed separately mentioned civilians sheltering in the basement of Mariupol’s theater. One of them, a doctor, said she had visited the theater in the days before she left and that between 500 and 800 civilians were staying there. The other person, who had spent the past two weeks delivering food, water, and medicine to shelters across the city, said that he had delivered aid to the theater multiple times and that it was housing between 500 and 700 civilians."

"Human Rights Watch was unable to reach anyone in Mariupol by phone on March 16 to determine whether civilians had left the theater immediately prior to the attack." 

Note: people were let out - 500-800 estimated by some informed sources, 1,200-1,300 by others. Logically, it might be there were 1200-1300 until 4-800 were allowed to leave. Just which ones and why might be of interest, but it's unclear aside from they tell 2+ stories about events. This could even explain the claims "all" were released; e.g. some half were let out with promises the rest would follow, but then they weren't.

Perhaps Azov had held people here and planned to blow them up, but decided - maybe because the plan was leaked - just to blow the building. It could help Azov pretend they had never held those people or knew much about them - to the degree they had no idea everyone had left "on their own accord" - and maybe THAT will be why Azov THOUGHT up to 1200 people were still trapped in there, and wound up leading the world to THINK up to 1200 MIGHT have died. and keep thinking that for a few days as they consider increasing military aid.

Still we're led to speculate when there's no clear evidence who is or is not still in there, alive, dead, or what. For all we know, the final plot twist might be the shelter survived, but Putin had "Novichok" chemical weapons in that bomb and it killed the 500 or so people still in there.  (seems this mystery element can do anything you want, so why not?) In that case, it could be Ukraine gets their "no fly zone" and it's NATO et al. vs. Russia, China et al. - and I didn't realize the SCO now includes India AND Pakistan besides - ostensibly a mutual defense pact just like NATO, and surely Iran would join along with the whole resistance axis and most of the global south) we all get decades of global war, military and economic, and some of us may get nuked.

And maybe not, but anyway ... let's try to stay mentally nimble here. That was me nimbly leaping way ahead on a tangent. 

Add 3/22: harrowing tale from Serhii, a 56-year-old editor in Kyiv, from his own wife and two daughters trapped in Mariupol. Says he told them to go the drama theater shortly before it was bombed, to his sharp regret, but the story has a positive spin - one daughter was out when it happened, came back to find her sister hid "in a portion of the theater that did not collapse, and her mother, who was dug out of the bomb shelter along with other survivors" was also okay, and they were able to check in by phone. Some 1200 others were less lucky. Others who escaped - or just others - had a car to give the three a ride to safety. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mariupol-they-thought-they-would-be-safe-in-the-theater-then-it-was-bombed/ar-AAVkzop

Images and Forensic Analysis

Again: Until someone can provide proof of a Russian jet even passing over this spot, there is no reason to believe that aerial bombing happened, and instead, there is reason to suspect it did NOT happen, which means the Ukrainian side is lying. 

Nonetheless, we can learn from the visual record, albeit scant in this case. 

a few photos and one video at least published by Azov Battalion: https://twitter.com/With__Ukraine/status/1504522796990406663

All four combined at smaller size, showing east end, NE corner, NE corner, north south side 

Calling the last north side was wrong - it never did fit clearly, and Max Blumental noted in a good piece at TheGrayZone it's the same spot shown in a HRW photo, which is clearly the south face. Trees on the left match exactly, and the rest is consistent but for location and angle of view and, obviously, the damage inflicted. Compared here with damaged area in red, and for reference some sidewalk edges and pole marked in green for the mapping below.

Video: This shows the northeast corner. Panoramic view:

(from first posting I found: https://twitter.com/V_Schneiderman/status/1504652989747056642 )

Otherwise, there are 1 or 2 10-second videos posted early after the blast, and about three photos or stills of differing quality, and as far as I can find, zero non-Azov additions since - all 3 early basic views I saw making the rounds: https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1504531878249852942 - 2 views from the south, one from the north - all 3 combined below.

I collected a bunch of before views from different angles for comparison ... I'll be adding at least some of these here. Here we see the south and east sides from above, with the approximate collapsed area and destroyed roof marked out.

Maxar Technologies satellite imagery from the morning of March 19 was released, allowing some overview - cropped here - showing more roof missing than what Illustrated above. Note the total lack of cars of people sheltering here, compared with the crowed lot seen in the earlier view. Did everyone with a car leave? Did someone come and remove the cars belonging to the 1,200 people in there?

Next ... a pretty detailed damage and debris mapping on a working scene model, consulting many images to try and mark all sidewalks and intervening spans relevant to placing the seen debris. Note the lime green lines and green dot on south side - refers to pole and edge labels in the image above. 

This can at least give some idea of the size of blast involved. A basic point we can be clear on is that debris spread somewhat evenly to north vs. south, maybe a bit further to the south, but that might reflect the wind as much as anything. It doesn't give the sense of any kind of missile trajectory as seen with prior "Russian bomb" drops. This could be a dropped bomb, IF there were any jet up there to drop it. Otherwise, I think it's a stationary bomb set up inside the building. Will be expanding on this and seeking other views. 

Early views with fires still burning seem to have the north wall still partly standing - in later views it has collapsed. Two trees on the north side are downed with most branches intact, apparently after the wall collapsed. At least one tree on the south side was downed, and stripped of branches as if in the blast itself. This is possibly a clue to where the bomb impacted, or was set. Again, south of center is suggested. 

building damage will hold more specific clues I can't exploit very well - wider at the top, suggesting a blast center about at the roofline - consistent AFAIK with either an aerial bomb as reported, or one rigged at that level, as also reported. 

Shelter scenes - to consider when looking at wooden pallets, other things

https://twitter.com/belkiswille/status/1504331621352226820  

Circumstantial Evidence

Did Zelensky Know?

On March 16, just hours before this attack, Ukraine's President Zelensky had addressed the US congress pleading for no-fly or advanced weapons, citing the 1941 Pearl Harbor and 2001 9/11 attacks when "innocent people were attacked from air" and killed in droves that started or brought the US into global wars. Zelensky added "Our country experienced the same every day" since Russia invaded,  (CNN). The theater bombing really made his case like nothing before; March 16 looked well set to become such a "day of infamy." Was that coincidence, or was it planned to come out that way? 

But the 4-digit death toll was stalled, at least. On the 18th CNN reports on Zelensky confirming but not updating earlier reports that 130 people had been rescued, of about 1,300 believed to be inside and zero confirmed dead. "Zelensky said that rescue operations are continuing at the site despite the difficulties." Limited reports of 200 rescued followed that night, but nothing since, and there are still no images of this operation or any rescues. We can be expected the process to "continue" slowly, to drag out the drama of how many lived, as Zelensky pleads for better weapons (it seems a "no fly zone" is now beyond reach? “We shall call even louder on certain Western leaders and remind them that this will be their moral defeat if Ukraine does not receive the advanced weapons that will save the lives of thousands of our people.”). 

Art School Bombing

It was starting to seem there may be no one under the rubble, but then late on the 19th the Russians allegedly bombed another shelter just 150 meters to the southeast. Some 400 civilians, mostly women, children and elderly, who had been sheltering beneath an art school were feared trapped or killed, again with uncertainty over who survived. Now it's some 1,600-1,700 feared buried and zero confirmed deaths in this same small area.

Location: BBC map shows this art school almost next to the drama theater. A telegram post from Mariupol City Council gives школу мистецтв №12 = school of arts №12, Shkola Mystetstv (music school) on Google maps - Immediately south of the central square on the drama theater grounds, it's 1/2 visible in Maxar site photo (in the crop below, upper right corner). So far (3/22) no imagery from the scene that I've found.    

This 400 might add to the people at the drama theater for a really massive catastrophe. Or it might replace them, since they were all gone before the bombing, allowing the story to continue despite a false start. I don't think anyone predicted this event like they did for the theater, but then that event may have been canceled, or just moved and re-scheduled, for all we know. So far the reality behind either story is extremely unclear. 

More posts on the Drama theater bombing:

Continuing development of this case carried out in later posts:

Truth, Justice, and "Twitter Rules" - on the right to ask questions

Molfar "Destroys" Russian "Propaganda Bloc" in Edinburgh - 

Shelled from the South - subsequent damage cause after March 21 - seems to be caused by Ukrainian fire from the southwest