Fail "Caesar" Part 5-B: Plotting By Hospital Number

Fail "Caesar" Part 5-B: Plotting By Hospital Number

February 19, 2015
(incomplete, last edits Feb. 20)

< Part 5: Questioning the Number System

Note: the following was copied over from  ACLOS: Torture Photos from "Caesar"/Photo Timeline page, which has been updated since. This post will (eventually, hopefully) be updated to a nice summary of that, and worked in better.

Hospital number Overview

I've scanned all the images I have (most of them...) and got a ton of hospital/exam/body # (above, card bottom #). Every number on these cards is suspect, but this is the most likely to be reliable/valid and also seems to map out well over time. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:26, 16 February 2016 (UTC)

One of the main points of this page and tables above was to check time correlation (not clear, covered below) and the claims that over 11,000 victims are suggested (they say bodies were numbered 1-5,000, then re-started with a /b at the end up to 5,000/b, and then started on a third letter. Other than the first 2,000 entries and the last part after 10,000 is reached, this is confirmed quite well, and two full sets of 5,000 are suggested. There is no (clear) coverage before entry 2065, and at the late end this odd spot - either 544 and a separate 4 for no clear reason, or this is body number 5444 with no /b. Maybe the switch was after this? Not clear enough to include in this quick table shows the lowest non- and highest (clear, and consistent) number in each series. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:30, 18 February 2016 (UTC)

body numbers closest to 5,000/0 switches
Hosp#	victim#	date	sources
2065	227-394	1-11-2012 (6)	SAFMCD entry SNHR photo ZaW ZaW ZaW
4978	215-1385	3-2013 ?	f/c
10/b	215-1414	3-2013 (2)	SAFMCD entry (shows card)
4994/b	227-2791	14-8-2013 (5)	SAFMCD ZaW

Timeline:

I plotted out several dozen cases where I can match that victim to a SAFMCD entry, with original file name including folder date. The folder dates aren't gospel, and as we can see below they mainly aren't very specific - about one a month. At the moment, I'm taking the date as creation date, filled with new and maybe previous images, and also added to until the next one is started. Not clear.

It's hyped how "Caesar's" photos show torture and repression for the whole conflict from March, 2011 to August, 2013. But the numbers suggest only about 1,000 unidentified bodies - less than 10% of the total implied - were logged between the start and July, 2012. 1,000 in 15 months is an average of less than 70 a month.

Probably that many victims are listed, but no reliable #s yet. The earliest possible hospital #s are in the 500-1100 range – this is a thing that emerged analyzing Majed Abu Draa – it seems likely his hospital number 1075 was re-branded as branch 215 ID# way out of sequence - others in the span seem to fit the same pattern, often duplicating ID 3s in the process. … these seem to fit actually, correlating logically to June and July 2012 folders.

But otherwise, there's a huge gap; the first clear H #s are in low 2000s, already in the 1-11-2012 folder. Here I've mapped the numbers from here forward, from 2,000 to 5,000, repeating 1,000-5,000 with a /b suffix, and the suggested 1,000+ past that, although no examples at all have been seen yet.

It's not clear how far back the 1-11 folder covers, but likely some span - it's huge. And on the other end, #s reportedly go to over 11,000 and the last folder 14-8 is both huge and short on body shots with visible H#s - they probably do tick up that far unseen to us. So … this implies at least 8000 and perhaps over 10,000 unidentified or coded bodies passed through in 10 months, or the span covered by these folders. I suspect 1-11 covers the time frame of the Daraya in August and whatever else, from the size of it, so likely a span of one year. 8-10,000 over 10-12 month = Average rate: 700-1,000/month - at least ten times the rate over the first year. Final 5-6 months saw about 6,500 - at least 1,083/month.

What strange luck - just as "Caesar" got his insider documentation system down, someone decided to start really sending mass numbers of horribly abused bodies for him to document. And it might be the final folder was the worst yet (pending analysis, range of all folders a bit unclear...) and I bet it fell off once he stopped recording, and also the Ghouta massacre happened, and hostage stocks might finally have gotten low. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:26, 16 February 2016 (UTC)

Also FWIW the branch victim #s tend to tick upward logically as if they covered a portion of the sequentially discovered unidentified bodies. At least 215 and 227 (about 75% of the total) do this, other than the few odd entries or groups like mentioned above. The one exception I've noticed is Air Force intel, J - their numbers bounce around a lot - 9000s killed and then 2,000s a month later, etc. But they have other weird patterns too I mean to explain somewhere. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:39, 16 February 2016 (UTC)

And before I confuse many people, my suspicion now is the branch victim # is made up by the terrorist killers, written on the bodies before dumping or even before killing them. "Caesar" had the job of "verifying" that, maybe just by putting the real hospital # alongside the numbers on the body, on these official cards. So the supposed proof of bouncing numbers, which is rare anyway, is just a poorly written attempted proof. The terrorists mainly just numbered their victims sequentially based on the order they were murdered, or numbered within a batch about to gt it. This wasn't too bright as far as setting "Caesar" up to claim it's a military intel prisoner # ... but it would be easier to keep track of and avoid screwing up. But as we'll see, it got screwed up anyway. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:21, 18 February 2016 (UTC)

Early Entries Re-branded?

As mentioned above, case of Majid Abu Draa has an odd issue with his 215 ID# 1075 (he also has a branch 227 ID#) being seen in this fuller view on a card - no 215 is specified, and no other number. Usually when we see that, especially on early photos, it's the hospital or unidentified body number. As we'll see, that number makes sense in context of mid-2012.

There might be another 1075, but not that I've found yet. What we do see is this ...

Supposed prisoner ID# is repeated three times here that I had found - 1071, 1072, 1123, each having on repeat an early, mid-2012 hospital photo like Majid's, the other like and dated like those around it. I've discovered more in the shown range since making this plate, further into the 110s and sporadically back into the 500s - maybe 70 entries or more, some with later duplicates found, some not yet. What are the odds they decided to kill several 500-1100 range prisoners in mid-2012 and the rest six months later (an unusual pattern), and happen to have several duplicate ID #s in this narrow range, and hardly anywhere else? Majid is the only case where we can see the number on a card, and it's shady - looks like "Caesar" decided to fill in some 215 victims that never existed, and re-branded the right hospital #s. It also helps prove his theory the branch victim 3 represents prisoner ID, not death or finding date - how can some of these people be found six months ahead of the rest? Right?
Anyway ... he's the only direct glimpse but it leads into a pattern that keeps making sense. I noticed the same issue to a lesser degree in the 227 folder - which is less complete on my end so far. But I filled it in some more and then found enough instances to show the same pattern continuing. Some duplicates, usually with one a 1-6, 1-7 or 1-8 hospital photo. (there are some other kinds of duplication, but just one other set I've included below). As we can see, it's a and continuous string of entries with this kind of number jammed in even when it conflicts with later entries, split between two branches with no repeats noticed yet within the string, just within the branches it's jammed into ... noticeable switch-over points. Those with an identified later duplicate number they trip over indicated with a D.

Supposed prisoner ID# is repeated three times here that I had found - 1071, 1072, 1123, each having on repeat an early, mid-2012 hospital photo like Majid's, the other like and dated like those around it. I've discovered more in the shown range since making this plate, further into the 110s and sporadically back into the 500s - maybe 70 entries or more, some with later duplicates found, some not yet. What are the odds they decided to kill several 500-1100 range prisoners in mid-2012 and the rest six months later (an unusual pattern), and happen to have several duplicate ID #s in this narrow range, and hardly anywhere else? Majid is the only case where we can see the number on a card, and it's shady - looks like "Caesar" decided to fill in some 215 victims that never existed, and re-branded the right hospital #s. It also helps prove his theory the branch victim 3 represents prisoner ID, not death or finding date - how can some of these people be found six months ahead of the rest? Right?

Anyway ... he's the only direct glimpse but it leads into a pattern that keeps making sense. I noticed the same issue to a lesser degree in the 227 folder - which is less complete on my end so far. But I filled it in some more and then found enough instances to show the same pattern continuing. Some duplicates, usually with one a 1-6, 1-7 or 1-8 hospital photo. (there are some other kinds of duplication, but just one other set I've included below). As we can see, it's a and continuous string of entries with this kind of number jammed in even when it conflicts with later entries, split between two branches with no repeats noticed yet within the string, just within the branches it's jammed into ... noticeable switch-over points. Those with an identified later duplicate number they trip over indicated with a D.

(select links at least)

Suspect branch ID #s in 215 and 227 folders
215	227	date	spare column
	251 (Majid Abu Draa)	3-7-2012
	537 D	1-6-2012 vs. 1-11-2012
538		1-6-2012
539 D		1-6-2012
541		1-6-2012
542		1-6-2012
543		1-6-2012
547		1-6-2012
548 D		1-6-2012
549 D		1-6-2012
551 D		1-6-2012
562 D		1-6-2012
563 D		1-6-2012
564		1-6-2012
565		1-6-2012
566		1-6-2012
567 D		1-6-2012
568
569 D
570
571 D
	651	1-7-2012
	661 D	1-7-2012
662		1-7-2012
663		1-7-2012
665 D		1-7-2012
666		1-7-2012
667 D		1-7-2012
668 D		1-7-2012 vs. 1-2013
	669 D	1-7-2012
	694
725 D
726 D
727 D
728 D
729 D
730 D
732 D		1-7-2012 vs 2-2013
822 D		1-7-2012 vs. 2-2013
	900	1-7-2012
	902	1-7-2012
1000
1071 d
1072 D
1074		1-7-2012
1075 (Majid Abu Draa)		1-7-2012
	1121
1122		1-8-2012
1123 D
1126
1161		1-8-2012
1162		1-8-2012
1163 D		1-8-2012
	1244?
	2048	1-11-2012
	2058	1-11-2012
	2810?	14-8-2013 (but looks like mid-2012 hospital photo)

2048 and 2058 do not fit the main pattern, but instead re-illustrate it - in these two cases, there are no duplicates yet, but the November asphalt photos are shoehorned in with similar-numbered victims killed in July, 2013. The running victim numbers for most in the November folder was back in the 3-400 range. What's odd, as we see above with the lowest body number entry, he's 227-394 - same span ... body number 2065. What are the odds the few out-of-sequence prisoners killed here 2048, 2058, also had victim numbers matching with current hospital # range? Too slim, sorry. So this marks a second occurrence of the pattern illustrated by Majid. !! Cool sound of holes tearing? --Caustic Logic (talk) 16:24, 18 February 2016 (UTC)
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Consider: