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Sunday, February 19, 2017

Syria Chlorine Allegations: The Baytounji Family

Syria Chlorine Allegations: The Baytounji Family
Adam Larson aka Caustic Logic
February 19-20, 2017 
additions 2-24, 3-14

A recent HRW report relates a string of eight alleged chlorine attacks last November and December, as the government of Syria re-conquered rebel-held east Aleppo (Monitor analysis,  see also ACLOS page and talk page) An incident in the early hours of November 20 is the deadliest in the set, and worth some scrutiny.

The yellow chlorine cylinder dropped from a helicopter, "witnesses" say, is shown in a damaged home, with some other junk on top of it (right, from a video linked in the HRW report).
Note 2-24: I'll probably be reviewing the videos and doing some scene analysis in time, which might reveal more clues. But so far, no review or notes.

Activists claim a family of six lived here, and all perished here. A mother, a father, and four children, just sat there and died. Having lost consciousness at the outset, they breathed too much of the caustic gas before anyone could carry them out.

But as I'm in the process of explaining in a definitive way (done, link), that makes no actual, scientific sense, no matter how often it's repeated. Chlorine does not really cause unconsciousness, at least not instantly. In fact if one were already passed out, it might wake them up like smelling salts, as the lungs start burning, and then the eyes. Realistically, they might sleep through a bit of it, but then get out the door at least before collapsing, and finally die later on at the hospital.

But here, as in many cases before, we hear that all victims were found inside the home, perhaps still in their beds (there's no video of them in situ, just verbal descriptions, which are vague - a local saw five of them, all inside, "a mother, father and three children. Their faces were blue." (HRW))

Who were they? A Christian Family?
This Reuters report is the only source to offer a partial identification for the slain family. "Two medics said the al-Baytounji family had suffocated to death because the barrel bomb, which fell in the Sakhour district at about midnight, had been laced with chlorine gas." The HRW report passes this on, but they couldn't verify it. The SOHR couldn't verify the name, or the chlorine. 

The opposition VDC is the same, listing them perhaps as unidentified, killed by barrel bomb, not gas. They seem to list no one by this name dying, in the whole conflict - but they may list these anyway:
Sakhour, Aleppo, killed 11-20, all by Syrian air strikes - 10 civilians, all "unidentified."
  • 5 Adult-Male = men or blank
  • 1 Adult-Female
  • 4 Child-Male = perhaps "child, blank," so may include girls
This could be the reported family of six plus four others, men or blank, related or not, unclear. Presumably it's four others killed, in alleged shelling but presumably not by chlorine. All entries seem to blame "Helicopter shelling" with "explosive barrels," but maybe it was those yellow tanks, and the VDC's sources didn't get the memo in the chaos. That they didn't get the names either supports that.

That name - Baytounji - is interesting. It may be a Christian one. I was able to assemble it in Arabic from scratch: بيتونجي. I plugged this into the VDC and found nothing. I tried some internet searches and found it appears occasionally as a word that won't translate, but sounds right: (phonetics given as "bytwnjy") and not usually as a name. I found only one result that made sense and seems to be a name- an old essay in Arabic, maybe from Turkish or verbal records, relating to "construction of St. George's church district Syriacs" (Syrian Christians) in the 1930s. "After the stability of the Syriac community in the city of Aleppo," the auto-translation says, "the Rev. Joseph priest (alqas yusif qsaan) of the Syriac Orthodox Church" is involved. They needed a new church, or at least a new roof, and one guy involved was apparently named (as Google translate gives it), "Mr. Ibrahim Hajjar Betonge" with the last name being the Arabic بيتونجي. He was maybe a donor; in 1933 someone asked him for "share for the construction of the roof..."
Note 3-14: See below, name considered, for more on this name. Also noting St. George's Church in Aleppo is likely the same one currently labeled on Wikimapia, near but not in present Assyrian district. In 1933, it was said to be in the Assyrian (Christian) quarter.

So it's a very rare name, linked to Syrian Christians around Aleppo. Here, as Islamist rebels are about to flee parts of that same city and can't take hostages with them, a family of this rare name dies, blamed on chlorine... Add 2-21: A CNN report refers to these same victims: a neighbor says "the victims weren't activists or anything ... but they were suffocating so much, they turned blue." In fact, research suggests they might have been the kind that not only doesn't support the Sunni extremist rebellion,but that sometimes get kidnapped by it.

How Did They Die? 
As the group view (again at right) shows, the children at least did get out of bed and get dressed up in daytime clothes, pretty quickly after this "shortly after midnight" attack... strange that. But they have no shoes on their feet. This may be a fist step of basic body processing (before full stripping, washing, wrapping, and then burial). But shoes are often removed before an Islamist executes you. Note: hostages aren't given pajamas to sleep in, and don't even have to die at the stated time. And they don't need shoes if they aren't going anywhere.

But shoes or not, they didn't get out the door in time, and died inside from the chlorine gas. But these don't look like normal chlorine deaths. That causes red, irritated or damaged eyes, skin burns, coughing up blood and mucous, and often cyanosis, a blue color shift in the skin. What we see here is something quite different.

The visuals come from the two known videos:
* Group video on Youtube: +18 The New Holocaust made by Putin & Assad in Aleppo  20-11-2016. The same on Facebook for now, better resolution, stills used below.
* SyrianArchve.org copy of truck video, described "One family (4 children and their parents) have died as a result of suffocation caused by the chlorine barrel bomb attack"

Very troubling, graphic images (mid-size - larger view is optional in new window), ordered youngest to oldest, or left-to-right in the group video, numbered for reference (V=victim): for each composite view, it's seen in pickup (left), and seen in group video (right):
V1 apparent baby girl
V2, boy
V3, girl
V4, boy
V5, the father (off-frame in group view, seen in truck view):
 
V6, the mother: unseen (women often not shown, maybe just for modesty, or for dying differently, or getting sold off instead?).
Possible V7-10 (per VDC's list of 10 victims of this "barrel bombing") also unseen. 

I don't know immediately what this might be, but it's not standard chlorine poisoning, certainly not any passive falling-asleep-at-home kind. Again, they're all dressed at midnight here, but somewhere they can't get out of. The extermination method is something messed up. But it's partly some kind of chemical, possibly chlorine, in a very high dose, but something else at least in part. Here are some visual notes:
  • The children, especially V3 and V4, look almost baked or dried out, like an old orange, or maybe people hanged up in a smokehouse - dark stains with lighter areas - heavy smoke-staining, largely washed off? (see V1, side of face, and all have wet clothes) Some kind of cap attempted? (lighter patch starting near the hairline, V1 and V2) Made to breathe smoke is a sign of abusive captivity by Islamists. General stained appearance, slightly red-orange, seems odd though, a possible gas clue.
  • Cap or not, some of the victims' hair sticks up, and seems crusted that way (V1, V2, V5) - were they left hanging upside down for a time, in a particulate-dense environment (like a smokehouse)? Perhaps minus hair washing for a while? Falling gas canisters can't do that to their victims.
  • they don't seems visibly starved, but might be badly dehydrated
  • deep, dark rings around the eyes, as if super-tired (unclear what this suggests, likely poison-related, maybe a slow death) Note 2-23/24: Important! Split-off to below: Raccoon Eyes?
  • Cyanosis: not so clear with smoke/whatever, but maybe in all (see lips, purple), and maybe in V2's face (blue-ish)
  • white, vacant, rolled up, rheumy eyes - not bloodshot or seeming damaged like with chlorine (or is that just the white residue? see below)
  • no clear sign of (much) mucous or blood coughed up, as with chlorine, but gasping as if they couldn't breathe (V2 mas some blood smear around his mouth)
  • white residue: on v4's face, around nose, corner of mouth, on V3 (girl) along upper eyelids (as if upside-down), and possibly on her sweater (as if right-side-up?). I guess this is mucous that reacted with the chemical, and fizzed up into this. 
  • I've seen similar before, with many "Caesar photo" victims, who were clearly tied upside down, but that tends to be bright yellow, and more copious. Here, in the nose and eyes, holding the eyelids open. "Prisoner #" j-2218, in the March, 2013 folder.
  • Other "Caesar photos" victims resemble the children here, at least a bit... it's not the usual look there, nor quite the same as here, but for what it's worth: 227-411, 1-11-2012, 227-2182 24-6-2013, a better example I've seen but can't re-locate now... one with extra smoke. But none is quite the same - this is something I've never quite seen before.
  • The father's face seems different, not as dark, no white residue, wetter, smooshed, apparently laid on his face, but probably after death, maybe after being cut down... his hair seems to stick up too. 
  • V4 has an odd dark spot on his belly they don't bother covering up. Is that a bruise? Did someone punch him in the belly a few days before this?  
  • Add, 2-23: V2 is the bluest, but his blue is perhaps not cyanotic - it may be more bruise-colored and mottled like bruises, blending into burns on the left side. Was he beaten about the face shortly before he died? Is a boy hanging upside down an attractive punching bag to salafi terrorists? Perhaps. But unlike the others, this victim doesn't really seem to have any black eyes or possible raccoon eyes, nor sign of a broken nose. So why suspect him of getting punched?
Added 2-24: Raccoon Eyes?
The Reuters report notes the video "showed the corpses of four children stretched out on a floor, their lips blue and dark marks around their open eyes."  These don't seem to be 'marks,' but the color of the skin there. This might be of great interest.

V1, V4 and V5 at least seem to have these heavy, dark rings. V2 doesn't clearly*, and V3 probably does. This could be a more general kind of "black eyes" or "dark rings" in the extreme, but a source tips me off that these might be "raccoon eyes" (properly: periorbital ecchymosis - Wikipedia). Usually, 85% of the time people say, these are caused by a basal skull fracture, tearing the dura meter, between the brain and the skull. The tissue bleeds, and it pools up inside the skull, visible under the thin skin of the eyes. Such a fracture is most often to the anterior cranial fossa - something has hit a person hard in the back of the head, at the bottom part of the skull just above the neck. Note the backs of heads aren't seen to rule this out. And the toddler's head looks possibly misshapen, with eyes askew.
*V2 may have subgaleal hemorrhage - bleeding between the skull and scalp - if that can happen from the same (externalized to outside the skull somehow), and extend all over the face - maybe the blood from his dura mater is spreading here first, and barely pooling in the eyes. My theory, running it by my source.
Note 3-14: That wasn't a good theory. Rather, my source suggests he might have had his face badly scalded at some point, and this is partly healed, with uneven areas of red and blue discoloration. I can see that. I'm not convinced, but it's a possibility that suggests abusive detention for some time prior to death.). 

Maybe ... I'm checking if this must be periorbital ecchymosis, or possibly some other dark rings/black eye effect. If it is the real deal ... the 85% likelihood of fracture is under normal circumstances. In Syria now, and maybe in an Islamist dungeon, that may not apply. But other causes of this tend to be other damage in the same area of the skull, from surgery or sometimes from cancer there, and (never?) poison-induced, from tiredness, or a simpler injury like a punch in the eyes. So if these are proper raccoon eyes, in several members of one family, it's about 99.5% likely someone hit them all in the back of the head some time prior to the chlorine attack. Maybe the canister managed to whack each of them as it landed? This effect may take a day to form. Maybe they were knocked unconscious by their captors, or simple home invaders, before tying them up for the first part of a slow gassing, and the rings are still forming in these videos from several hours later? 

Add 3-14: to clarify the options:
* Raccoon eyes (caused only by injuries to the skull lining, here almost certain to be violent).
* Bruised or "black" eye, of the punched-in-the-eye sort  ( The difference between this or a skull fracture doesn't matter; there's no place in the rebel story for anyone breaking in to the home and beating the family up before the chlorine attack. I doubt this is: that usually hurts the eye too, disrupting blood vessels, and we already noted they don't seem the have this, nor any other sign of face-punching)
* Regular dark rings (Wikipedia: periorbital dark rings), which are caused by any combination of anemia, low blood oxygen (suffocation included), fatigue/lack of sleep, excess eye-rubbing, or any poison or medication that dilates blood vessels. Many dead people will have these, and that might be what we see here ... or part of it anyway.

I'm still not 100% certain what this is, but I lean to the first option. Periorbital ecchymosis vs. dark rings seems (by images) to be different in filling the entire eye socket pretty evenly with blood, above and below the eye, swelling both lids (see Wikipedia photo, or an image search with some extreme (graphic) examples). Standard dark rings start at the lower corner and spread mainly over just the area beneath the eye, not usually above, or to a much lesser degree. Check the upper eyelid in the ecchymosis photos where the bottom darkness prevails, and you'll see that part's darker, but it's all darkened and is or will be black, then brown, etc. like a bruise. Also, see the Baytounjis above compared to the eyes of the Caesar photos victim beneath: he's got dark rings and puffiness, and the family has something different.

So, I'm pretty sure someone hit them all in the head a day or more prior to the gassing. The assault may have been 2-3 days before these video were taken.These eye rings look non-swollen, non-red, sliding to brown, and maybe about 1/3 healed (possibly deniable - it looked bad at first, and by this point people might think that's just dark rings, from the chlorine or whatever). I'm no stranger to deciding on things that the rebel story left no room for, and I have adequate reason to do the same here. Sorry to ramble a bit in getting there.   
---
Name Considered (Added 3-14)
Of course one hit in an internet search isn't much to go on to call this a likely Christian family. But ... I looked into it more, and it still seems a good point to me. An indirect Syrian contact tells me the name بيتونجي means expert in concrete, or concrete mason, from the French béton, for conctete. ("ji" I guess means worker in). I couldn't find easy verification of this, but oddly I think this strengthens the value of the clue. 

In Google Translate, I tried concrete, cement, and béton and none directly translated to the root baytoun ( بيتون ). The current general Arabic for cement is Asmant, apparently from the English. Baytound doesn't even appear as an alternate translation for any of the three. Was it only used up to a point in time? Or maybe it's too limited in space to appear here?

One source I can now make sense of uses the word in a non-name sense: A Facebook post from a construction-oriented account (prefabricatedhousesdgror, fond of adobe and masonry as well) shows a small, heart-shaped cement pool full of water, with shovel laid across it. The text is two words that translate "Baytounji lover." Okay. That's cement/concrete work. (I'm hazy on the difference). The heart-shaped pool is "near Latakia," by post details, and by related links the person who used that phrase may be in or near Tartous province. 

Others sources appearing in a search that use the word:
www.shaamtimes.net (Syria), syria-news.com/ (Syria), www.sauress.com (?), a re-post from Al-Manar, (Lebanon), https://sh22y.com (Syria, I think?). That's almost all of them. It's not used widely by al-Jazeera or anyone else. It's a local term used mainly in Syria. Huh!

And as a name, it still appears only in Aleppo that I've seen. It's seemingly associated with the Christian community there (but not certainly linked, and maybe not exclusively). If that's the real name of this killed family, nothing is proven, but a very troubling possibility would seem pretty likely to be the truth. So why would they go ahead and say the name? Well, it's so rare ... well, someone in Syria should be able to recognize it and match up any missing Christian family of that name. So partly, it's "good question," and partly "they just don't care."

In summary:
A likely Christian family in Aleppo with captivity clues was likely hanged upside down and murdered with some horrible gas and/or smoke. This happened as Islamist rebels liquidated property before fleeing to Idlib in the amnesty deal, and as they sought (always) to blame the government for fresh crimes. The mother might have been killed differently. There's no reason to suspect any aircraft were involved in this tying up and gas-roasting-??, aside from that yellow tank in someone's home and the story behind it.

Totally unseen, a woman just sat there and died Nov. 23 (and she's unidentified by everyone), two people Dec. 8 (both men named, but some disagree on one's gender), perhaps two other on  Nov. 28 (unidentified and no age/gender specified), and perhaps five more on December 9 (unidentified and no age/gender specified). But the precedent set by these barely-named first deaths is not good, as we see people getting more and more vague about who's dying here.

Human Rights Watch refers to this same family death, with less detail, and to the other cases with almost no detail. They fill in the gaps with a nonsense story from Islamist activists, and make moral pronouncements as if they know the truth now. Ole Solvang, deputy emergencies director at Human Rights Watch, is quoted saying “The United Nations Security Council shouldn’t let Syrian authorities or anyone else who has used chemical weapons get away without consequences.” To back that up, "Human Rights Watch called on the Syrian government to immediately stop using chemicals as weapons," and may have offered complete impunity to the actual killers, as they left east Aleppo Scott-free in a line of green buses.

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Assessing HRW's Latest Chlorine Report

Syria Chlorine Allegations: Assessing HRW's Latest Syria Chlorine Report
Adam Larson aka Caustic Logic
February 16-18, 2017
last edits Feb. 20

Note: a rough post, to get in there while people are still paying attention, now fairly complete, but may be added to.

On February 13, Human Rights Watch (HRW) issued a new report alleging the Syrian government used chlorine gas against civilians during its re-conquest of eastern Aleppo in November and December last year. "Syria: Coordinated Chemical Attacks on Aleppo" urges in a by-line: "Security Council Should Impose Sanctions." This has been done a lot already, and just seems to encourage "Assad" to keep doing it more. But oh well ...

Villains that they are, Syria and Russia both deny the allegations, calling them fictions spun by the Islamist, interventionist "opposition" to scuttle upcoming negotiations and keep regime change as everyone's goal. (Reuters) There's much logic to that, and precedent for it. But they don't seem to have the specifics to explain the evidence, meager though it is, or to counter the charges like we'll try to do here.

HRW is of course notoriously biassed in against governments that the United States has been trying to overthrow. Their reliability as judges of fact vs. fiction is dubious in such cases, which obviously includes Syria. I'll skip a fluff re-explanation of that here (but see as needed Alternet: Nobel Peace Laureates Slam Human Rights Watch's Refusal to Cut Ties to U.S. Government), and get right to testing it by the specifics at hand.

The report notes how the eight "confirmed" attacks on rebel-held areas (out of more alleged) preceded government advances in that district. HRW's Ole Solvang is quoted saying this suggests the attacks "were coordinated with the overall military strategy for retaking Aleppo, not the work of a few rogue elements.” 

However, it's not explained and not at all clear just what purpose these alleged gas attacks would serve in that strategy. Collectively they got 8 dead civilians, and no rebels affected, or apparently aimed at. Aleppo was cleared of the "terrorists" by cutting supply lines, enforcing embargoes, standard fighting and negotiated surrenders. It was not at all due to some random chlorine plumes. Their interactive map shows a reported chlorine drop in a district, and then a few days later the government takes that over, as they were doing across the whole area, with predictable directions. To me, the sequence HRW is more consistent with Rebel false-flaggers about to flee their districts, anticipating government moves and coordinating their claims - but guessing too soon in most cases.

Further, chlorine gas has little reasonable use, to kill or otherwise. In some combat situations, it can be used to deadly effect, if the gas can be concentrated, the victims are pinned in by gunfire, or so much is used the cloud is huge and inescapable (some cases are mentioned below). In a gas chamber, it could be a sure and horrible death, but a slow one. But just fired into a city from a distance, in a couple of rockets giving off limited plumes, is not likely to do much to anyone. 

Chlorine is very common and easy to fake. But surely that's not why "Assad" is using it... It must be because by now, there's a strong record of acceptance that the Syrian government drops chlorine on people. They do it routinely, it's accepted, since mid-2014, with a number of improvised methods and always aiming for civilians. HRW brags that they alone have "published reports on the Syrian government’s use of chlorine in May 2014, April 2015, June 2015, and September 2016," all reaching similar conclusions to this fifth installment. The logic of it doesn't seem to matter - HRW knows a war crime, and this is a deadly friggin' gas. This is like WWII Nazi stuff, totally banned, and people need to be held to account.

1) Said vs. Seen (and heard)
The report states:
Identifying with certainty the chemical used in the attacks without laboratory testing is difficult, but the odor, signs, and symptoms that victims and medical personnel reported indicate that government forces used chlorine.
Words were reported to them. They cite people describing a smell like cleaning products, as if that proves they really smelled chlorine, and they couldn't make it up or be coached to say that. But anyway, there was some real chlorine, in at least one case, so maybe they did smell it. But how was it delivered, and by whom?

Over and over witnesses describe in detail seeing the helicopter, seeing objects falling, knowing where they landed and seeing how they didn't explode. But as usual, no one was able to put a camera lens between his eyes and that event - no one was able to provide video of these objects falling from the helicopters in any of the cases.

HRW considered 8 cases here, and the best they got is a video by Aleppo Media Center from November 20 22, This shows a helicopter above (no sound - it's very high), then a cut - to a different day for all we know. And there's the green gas cloud appearing as seen here, as the cameraman says Allahu Akbar (supposedly in horror, like "oh my god").

The actual drop of a munition isn't shown. That makes zero for eight. Maybe he got bored before that and stopped filming, or the long fall was deemed boring later and edited out. We're to presume the scenes really do go together, but they might not.

There is an audio clue here - a faint whoosh, and a light explosion sound, from a distance, right after the cut. It could be a falling gas tank, maybe, if it had fins and got going fast... but it sounds more like a driven rocket to me, but maybe a light one. The quick cut suggests the duration was short - maybe too short to be from such a long drop. The bang doesn't sound much like the non-explosion most cite. (I'm not an expert, but I'll ask around...)

"In two attacks, journalists nearby captured the smoke on video," the report notes, adding that "Chlorine is yellowish-green in its gaseous form." Throughout the report, alleged witnesses describe chlorine exposure symptoms somewhat accurately, either because they saw them or just know what to say. They describe that color, the smell (akin to chlorine bleach), and the heavier-than-air quality, sinking into basements. This is accurate enough. But the visuals that should serve as proof are half-wrong. 

1.1) November 22: A Bogus Scene
HRW's headlining image is this still from the Aleppo Media Center video linked above. It looks like colored smoke, rising high and drifting on a gentle breeze, with no sign of falling back down, This was noted by Charles Shoebridge and readers on Twitter. Chlorine wouldn't do this. It could be blasted high, but would drift back down, and wouldn't wisp around on the breeze so easily.

As noted by Shoebridge et al., the color is also suspect, a bit too rich of a green hue. It seems debatable in the Aleppo Media Center video, but this appears a bit red-tinted. At right is a comparison of that, on the left, and adjusted on the right. By this, it seems not yellow enough, not pale enough - and of course not heavy enough - to be chlorine. This is some kind of green-colored special effects smoke, not any chemical weapon.

That's not to say there was no chlorine, but ...  A family of six reportedly died earlier this day, every one of them, in another chlorine incident nearby that didn't get filmed. (It happened around midnight). This plume video is from hours later, in the afternoon. It's supposed to help clarify this is a chlorine day, and that's why a family just died. But instead, it shows people trying to make it look like that, which is actually suspicious, (oops: this is from November 22, the family died November 20. It's not quite that suspicious)

1.2) December 8: Some Real Chlorine, at least
Another video showing chlorine gas, of two cited by HRW, by On the Ground News (Bilal Abdul Kareem) has similar audio. No helicopter is heard (again, perhaps it was too high). But there's a loud roar, almost like a passing jet, or an incoming rocket, capped with what sounds like a fairly heavy boom in the mid-distance. 

Someone on screen knows "he's dumping chlorine!" almost as soon as that thud is heard. Peeking around the corner a few seconds later, there's the green cloud, creeping along the ground. This is how chlorine behaves, and the color seems correct - pale yellow-green. It might be originating closer than that impact happened, and already creeping before that. This slow-creeping field of the stuff goes back meters, and has been rolling for a little while. And the blast sounds distant. Coordinated?

They're saying "no one should breathe" "go up on the roof." But it's only heavy an inch or so up, and has only mild effect a few feet higher and a few feet back. The effect is likely real, but only so strong. Note how they respond: No one faints, and after documenting it, they get away from the gas. Not everyone does that, reportedly. Some people inside houses filled with the stuff allegedly sit there and die. (see below). There was that family of six on November 20, and it's said two people died from chlorine in eastern Aleppo on Decembe 8, as this better plume was witnessed. (it's said they died from a different plume in another district, however, maybe at a different time).

The OGN video appears to show the real deal, chlorine gas hugging the ground like it should. But how it was delivered, with that whooshing noise, deserves more careful study.

1.3) The Yellow Tanks
There have been several types of alleged chlorine bombs used since 2014, starting with gas cylinders, graduating in 2015 to barrel bombs, where chlorine precursors are mixed inside upon impact (which is very unlikely, by the way - the impact and/or explosion would disrupt the mixing and produce no gas). Cylinders inside barrel bombs and other types have been dropped in front of rebel cameras in between and since.

This conquest-coordinated series of attacks is a special sub-set, unified by the use of a special and well-documented canister, when any kind is identified (five of the 8 cases). "In all five incidents, the footage shows the same type of yellow gas cylinder." One of those is shown here, from an AMC photo cited in the report, damaged supposedly by its fall from a helicopter. I haven't noticed this exact kind used, but I haven't followed it 100% (2014's were similar at least). We see no engines, nor even fins attached. They don't seem very heavy. Would these make that whooshing sound? And would this bending metal cause those booms we heard on video? I don't think chlorine gas is explosive...(update 2-18: CDC lists numerous explosion hazards with chlorine - ruptured cylinders can even "rocket," but reactivity is rated at 0, so...???)

By size and shape, these seem like these 44-liter cylinders and painted the standard color for chlorine. "A label still visible on the remnant from one attack shows a warning that the cylinder contained gas." A label that remains partly covered in mud, has Roman and Arabic lettering, as posted on Facebook by Lebanese Zaman al-Wasl. The company is apparently based in Jordan, making chemicals for civilian use, not weaponry. This might have been imported earlier, or smuggled in. Zaman al-Wasl asked the manager how "the company's weapons" (products) came to be "in the hands of bashar al-Assad's regime." (from auto-translate). A response might be forthcoming.(links, etc...)

In Syria, chlorine was also made at the Syria-Saudi Chemical Company (SYSACCO)..., in al-Safirah, Aleppo. I hear it's Syria's only chlorine production facility. Rebels seized the plant in the summer of 2012, and Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra seized it from them around December 6. It had some 400 giant one-ton barrels, destined for water treatment plants across the country, and painted the same golden-yellow. The terrorists took video of the place. I tried to get the barrels all in one panoramic view, but had to leave it at this majority view. (Monitor)

They had plenty of time to re-bottle and relocate and perhaps produce fresh stuff during their long tenure as de facto managers there. (It's been back in government hands now for some time). Also, someone had some chlorine, or empty tanks anyway, from a Jordanian company. We don't know what this means.

Also, the regime allegedly has lots of chlorine, runs the SYSACCo plant now (if it functions, unclear), and drops it from helicopters. No one knows why, but it's criminal.

Pending proof these tanks fell from a helicopter, or that they didn't (I haven't seen it yet), let's get back to the Islamist opposition's narrative, and a major problem with it no one has noticed so far.

2) The Dead Make Little Sense
2.1) No, Chlorine Doesn't Make You Pass Out
Relevant fact: chlorine does not cause unconsciousness, nor paralysis, nor even confusion or sleepiness. It's effect is mostly mechanical; it turns to hydrochloric acid on contact with water or wet tissues. It causes red, irritated eyes, perhaps skin irritation, lung damage, severe coughing, possible nausea, headache, and later on in severe cases, cyanosis (a blue color shift in the blood and skin, especially in the lips).

From the inside, the patient feels burning eyes, severe coughing and - most pressingly - an acute pain in the chest, with tightness and labored breathing, causing agitation or even panic, and a strong desire to get the hell away from this gas.Dizziness can occur, and sometimes an odd weakness in the legs tempts the victim to lie down. But they remain alert and aware of the need to get away. If you doubt this, go look it up. Most good sources relate to World War I, but the molecules are still the same.

Update 2-18: This does deserve more explaining, besides double-checking: I'm doing research now, and will post a piece soon, with a link added here. Update 2-20: that explanation, for the doubtful.

Most choose to move out of the gas at first chance, are able to, and wind up surviving just fine after a rough spell. People can die from chlorine if they're trapped somehow - like in World War I, pinned down in a trench by enemy fire, or put into a huge cloud they can't even walk out of before succumbing, or just from getting a very concentrated blast. The damage is done during exposure, however intense and however long that is. Death only come later, as the damage and the body's often fatal response play out. At the very end, the victim gets weak, loses consciousness, and then dies. But this is after a while of enduring it, when the coughing gets too difficult and breathing stops, and as the body is shutting down.

I can't see how, but perhaps there's a way chlorine would knock you out right away in some fluke circumstances. But here, people in the bomb damaged houses seem to just die instantly, or instantly become inert, loose consciousness or "fall asleep." And it happens in perhaps every case where the bomb allegedly lands in someone's home.

In fact, if one passed out from something else earlier, the chlorine would likely have the same effect as smelling salts, and snap the victim awake to get the hell out of there. But not in these stories. Like poorly-scripted silent movie heroines, they lay down in the sleepy fog and await rescue. But the gas makes them unreachable to rescuers, who claim to lack gear, and to sometimes pass out themselves... and so the implausible victim slowly dies inside.  This happens regularly, as if to keep the reminders fresh.

Is someone locking them inside these houses? No. Who could get there quick enough after the bombing? It takes just seconds to get out the door. Were they maybe locking people inside some unrelated place we might call a gas chamber? Some evidence says this is quite likely, and has even been the norm, down the line from the earliest alleged CW attacks to the present.For now, let's just keep an open mind and note the provided explanation doesn't make sense.

We're presented here with about the same formula we've seen since the start of the chlorine allegations - a bomb-damaged house, often looking long-abandoned, with the alleged delivery device in there, said to be filled with chlorine, and the family all just sat there and died.

2.2) November 20: The "Baytounji Family"
In HRW's report are 8 dead civilians verified, and at least two more reported, out of just 8 incidents. I knew about those listed by the VDC, but that didn't include the bulk of these: an entire family of six, killed November 20 in al-Sakhour district.

A witness said this chlorine bomb was dropped shortly after midnight, early on the 20th, impacting a house near a vegetable market. "The smell was like the liquid we use when we clean the house.” Videos show a house in ruins "and remnants of a yellow cylinder amid the rubble." It's said the family died here; A medical activist told them he "put a wet cloth over his mouth and went out to check the neighborhood," finding in one house "five dead civilians, a mother, father and three children. Their faces were blue."

Other activists and reports agree with photos and videos, citing six dead and showing 4 children. The man is seen in some cases, but the woman isn't. I haven't watched the videos yet. That will get a special space if I do. So a better resolution image analysis forthcoming. (Update 2-19: that's done - see here.) Here's a still from a clip of it in HRW's video, with too little detail to say much about the poison.

They seem to be two girls and two boys, maybe 3 boys and a girl. They show no sign of being trapped beneath the rubble (light dust usually, torn clothes, injuries, etc.). They may be a bit dingy and smoke-stained, which is a different sign (abusive captivity). But they weren't pinned down under the rubble. So why didn't they flee the choking gas? Four different children, and two adults ... between them, no one thought of a better plan than to just sit there and die?

Was it because they didn't have their shoes on? It's not clear why they're off here, but they're often removed before an Islamist executes you, and maybe as they start to process you. They did get out of bed and get dressed up in daytime clothes, pretty quickly after this "shortly after midnight" attack... strange that. But shoes or not, they didn't get out the door in time. Note: hostages aren't given pajamas to sleep in, and don't even have to die at the stated time.

Reuters heard these were members of a Baytounji family. "Human Rights Watch has not been able to independently verify the names." There seems to be no record in the VDC martyrs database of people of this name dying, perhaps ever (it's hard to be sure what spelling they would use, and I don't have the Arabic spelling). Unless they were listed under a different name and a different cause, it seems this usually exhaustive source missed out on this mini-massacre.

Update 2-18: The family may be listed, but the VDC didn't get the name. I may have assembled the name in Arabic ( بيتونجي ), and found just one result: a man named Ibrahim Hajjar Baytounji, from the Syriac Christian community in Aleppo, helped fund the building of a church or a roof for one in or near Aleppo, back in the 1930s (Arabic essay). I found no other info, just this indication Baytounji is a rare name in rotation in Aleppo's Christian community. This strengthens the impression this Aleppo family might've been hostages of the Islamists, being Christians, and were killed before the terrorists left the area, since it couldn't be done after... Explained here at ACLOS. 2-19: See also Monitor analysis here. I can summarize like so:
A likely Christian family in Aleppo with captivity clues was likely hanged upside down and murdered with some horrible gas and/or smoke. This happened as Islamist rebels liquidated property before fleeing to Idlib in the amnesty deal, and as they sought (always) to blame the government for fresh crimes. The mother might have been killed differently. There's no reason to suspect any aircraft were involved in this tying up and gas-roasting-??, aside from that yellow tank in someone's home and the story behind it.
... (continued below)

2.3) The Other Suspiciously Passive Croakers
Dec 8 attack: "Al-Khattat said that the attack killed two people: Ammar Shohaiber, around 40, and Mohammad Abrach, around 50." Other sources tended to agree. But as HRW notes, the VDC lists Ammar Shohaiber and an unidentified woman - no ages given, but they seemed like a husband and wife - and the age similarity of the men is notable ... but whatever, in one or two locations, two people with decades of wisdom behind them had their houses fill with chlorine gas ... and they just sat there and died?

A 55-year-old woman was killed, November 2, HRW heard, after the chlorine tank smashed through her roof. No one could get close enough to help her open the door, and drag her out, because the gas was so strong you couldn't stand it. But she must have, you know, passed out. Neither HRW, VDC, or anyone that I've seen got her name.

An alleged two other people were said to be killed on Nov. 28. No genders or details were given. HRW couldn't confirm anything. Maybe that witness misread the memo, seeing 12-8 (when two died) as 11-28, and so he gave the wrong day? There was a reported attack of 11-28, but no one else mentioned any deaths.

Some sources also reported another five civilians killed after the December 9 attack (again, no details). HRW couldn't confirm it, but it's not likely to just be made up. Most likely, as usual, this is in one gas-filled home, where five more people just sat there and died from the chlorine gas that "Assad" dropped on them, for no good reason. That's a total of perhaps 16 implausible deaths, or even more, in this chain of 8 attacks.


HRW gives no explanation for how these deaths happened, or whether it's usual or expected. If they did, they'd point to precedent from Syria in the last 3 years, which is meaningless.  Did the nature of chlorine change recently? Is this a different chemical, or some combination, being dropped from helicopters? Or does the true story follow different lines entirely, ones that run along the ground?

Continuing with the self-quote above:
Totally unseen, a woman just sat there and died Nov. 23 (and she's unidentified by everyone), two people Dec. 8 (both men named, but some disagree on one's gender), perhaps two other on  Nov. 28 (unidentified and no age/gender specified), and perhaps five more on December 9 (unidentified and no age/gender specified). But the precedent set by these barely-named first deaths is not good, as we see people getting more and more vague about who's dying here.
Human Rights Watch refers to this same family death, with less detail, and to the other cases with almost no detail. They fill in the gaps with a nonsense story from Islamist activists, and make moral pronouncements as if they know the truth now. Ole Solvang, deputy emergencies director at Human Rights Watch, is quoted saying “The United Nations Security Council shouldn’t let Syrian authorities or anyone else who has used chemical weapons get away without consequences.” To back that up, "Human Rights Watch called on the Syrian government to immediately stop using chemicals as weapons," and may have offered complete impunity to the actual killers, as they left east Aleppo Scott-free in a line of green buses. 

3) What Else Did HRW Miss?
After the (fall / re-conquest / liberation) of eastern Aleppo, signs emerged of a rebel chlorine industry there - Press TV report on Saudi chemicals found stored there (relevance unclear). An RT report with Lizzie Phelan shows a former school perhaps used as a chlorine factory, with hundreds of large jugs of magenta-colored potassium permanganate, in a liquid form. Mixed with hydrochloric acid, this produces pure chlorine gas. That might be able to be bottled somehow. (ACLOS) This is like the 2015 Assad chlorine barrel bomb, but taken out of the barrel and put in a terrorist-run former school. Reverse engineering, or is it more the other way around? Hm...

Some executed soldiers, hostages rebels had killed before escaping on the green buses - seen in photos with no visible wounds or blood - these might have been gassed, though chlorine isn't particularly indicated...  (same link - one other might have been beheaded)

Human Rights Watch start their survey on November 17, but list the first incident on the 18th.  Their interactive map also starts at 11-17, and blank - no chlorine attack that day. But oddly, one was reported and condemned, in a prominent but shady string of reported events I'll write up soon (see here at ACLOS for now) Chlorine victims went to the clinic, which was then bombed, and babies in incubators had to be removed for their safety - all the babies lived, it was said - including the one that was already dead and stiff with rigor mortis before the alleged hospital bombing. Now HRW adds - the chlorine part didn't happen? What next? The barrel bombing of the hospital was staged?

Earlier attacks: Sept. 6, east Aleppo, government blamed: 2 fatal victims, both seen, neither seems exposed to chlorine (Monitor).

Aug. 2, old city, Aleppo (government-held) a quick-killing CW inside a breached tunnel kills 5 soldiers, chlorine rockets after kill rescuers and civilians, a reported total of 13 killed - here's a rescue worker who died (via InGaza). He displays cyanosis (general purple color all over, his blood is in deep crisis, if he's even alive here), skin irritation (redness, and the mud suggests it burned, it might seem like mud could soothe that). Importantly, there's blood from the nose, and he'll have blood in the lungs, and maybe thick protective mucous now, complicating things. He also might have eye damage (lids would look swollen/puffy, and they might).

This was a pretty audacious chemical attack, but it went barely-noted outside Syria, eclipsed by a same-day alleged chlorine attack, from regime helicopter with a barrel bomb of course, on rebel-held Sarmin, but no one was lined up in time to die from it. (ACLOS)

April 7, 2016, Khan al-Assal Aleppo: Jaish al-Islam now operates around Aleppo? Their admitted chlorine weapons were fired - unauthorized, they said, and the  guy broke the rules would be punished - it's unclear if he was. 23 (all Kurdish fighters?) reported killed. One victim at right: bloody face, possible severe eye damage - maybe a strange facial injury, or a nasty dose of acid. (ACLOS)

Further back, the Taleb babies killed by chemicals on March 16, 2015 in Sarmin, Idlib province. Helicopters dropped a chlorine-mixing barrel bomb on the home of a family of 6, all of whom just sat there and died in their basement home. Grandma fell asleep on the stairs trying to leave the babies behind. Mom and dad passed out, but were alive and able to talk at the hospital before dying. The three babies were rescued later, at least 2 still alive. They were rushed to this clinic where they die on camera with poor assistance.
And it seems they were never exposed to chlorine, and died from something else ... white, calm eyes, pale skin, no blood, no choking, no coughing. In fact, they're barely breathing, not moving or responding, and totally limp - they're comatose, and then somewhere they slip over to dead. All this suggest most likely they were overdosed with a CNS depressant drug like moprhine, demerol, or other. (ACLOS, Monitor) This doesn't come from a dropped barrel bomb. It's hand-delivered by locals, with needles or pills, somewhere before this MSF-supplied field clinic, but perhaps from its shelves anyway.

Back in mid-2014, various displaced families, almost entirely, wound up under the chlorine bombs, and tended to die altogether, after just sitting there for never-explained reasons. (Monitor)

Back further ...  March 19, 2013, Khan al-Assal, Aleppo: a rebel rocket releases a yellow-green plume some say smelled like chlorine. But don't worry - it was sarin, all evidence suggests. That's why 20 people died and it makes perfect sense. That was fired by Jabhat al-Nusra, on a government-held area, aiming for an army checkpoint, but mostly killing nearby civilians (the village was majority Shi'ite, for what it's worth...) (ACLOS)

December 22, 2012: seven SAA soldiers die after inhaling yellow-green gas fired at them in Daraya, southwest of Damascus ... perhaps pinned down - and it might have been sarin, of the kind used in Khan al-Assal, despite the chlorine-like color (unclear at this point) they didn't show us this on Youtube, but did report it among several such attacks they wanted the UN and OPCW to investigate. (ACLOS)

The next day, rebels responded with a widely discredited allegation, a chemical attack by the regime in Homs, perhaps with sarin. Exactly seven men/rebels were killed, in what became known as the first deadly alleged chemical incident of the war. But U.S. and most official sources dismissed this, some seven men must have stood there and inhaled an entire canister of the non-lethal incapacitating agent BZ, after it was dispersed in the street. (Monitor analysis). That sounds silly and doesn't explain anything, but at least BZ is known to incapacitate people so they might just sit there and die, eventually. But again, the kind of chlorine that exists in the real world does not do that.



Sunday, February 12, 2017

The First Bodies Tossed Across Obama's "Red Line" in Syria

The First Bodies Tossed Across Obama's "Red Line" in Syria
Re-visiting the Earliest Deadly Alleged CW Incidents {Masterlist}
February 12, 2017

edits 11/26,27 - 12/8... 8/16/2018...

Some ill-informed people still think chemical weapons allegations in Syria first surfaced in August, 2013 with the infamous Ghouta massacre that spurred threats of US military action. Most fairly informed observers know that alleged attacks date back further, to March 19 of that year at least. Some even know that's why CW "inspectors" were there already when the Ghouta incident went down, at Syria's invitation to look into terrorist CW attacks, and ready to "confirm" the deadliest CW attack since Halabjah. 
March 19's twin incidents (or was it triplets, with one stillborn?) is where we start here, and then go backwards to increasingly unknown but deadly alleged CW incidents from the murky and tentative beginning. Next, we'll go back to a semi-known pair of chemical incidents the previous December, then two more earlier in December. Then we'll turn to a little known pair of alleged attacks even earlier, in November, that didn't get reported at the time, for a total of four parts, each covering 2-3 incidents, paired on the same or nearby days (that's just how they come).  
If there's time, I might start at March 19 again and go forward through other pre-Ghouta allegations. But for now...
"Red line," of course refers to Obama's threat to intervene military against Syria's government if it was believed to have used, or to be planning to use, its feared chemical weapons. Rumors of attacks, all small or vague, had already emerged by then, but no clear attack reports existed. But this could be an appealing invitation to rebels: create the impression of an Assad gas attack, and you can get military help.
That threat was first issued by Obama on August 20, 2012, exactly one year (almost to the hour, adjusted for time zones) before the infamous Ghouta alleged sarin attack of August 21, 2013 (some of the child victims shown). This was said to dump 1,429, or perhaps 1,700 bodies across the "red line." I've set a visual minimum of about 420, mostly placed in the same east and west Ghouta area UN "inspectors" had just arrived between. The true number may be anywhere in that huge span;  I suspect 5-800. It was definitely a massive crime, with a lot of crime scenes, that the approved experts never did assess very well. Most clues agree in suggesting terrorists were behind this. (some on-site work and starting points gathered here)
In between Obama's threat/offer and this massive crossing of the "red line" on its first birthday ... no clear attack reports emerged shortly after August 20. However, a public reminder from Obama on December 3 (which was my own first notice) was followed by Syria's only chlorine factory and perhaps a Syrian CW cache, being seized by Jabhat al-Nusra around December 6 (see here), and a slew of small-scale CW allegations from both sides, on December 6, 8, 22, and 23. (December 8 is the only one close to the chemical seizures, BTW, and worth more study). Two of these involved fatalities, 7 dead each, but one was ignored and the other was widely dismissed as not crossing the "red line."
--modified 11/26/2017--
As if noticing they had failed, allegations paused. Then there was the loud and strange re-emergence of the issue on March 19, which we'll start with and more attempts running up to the famous Ghouta massacre on Augutst 21. I've expanded the scope of this to run up to August 20 - first bodies = before Ghouta. And from there back (and then forward, in a now-scrambled order), here are, as far as we know, the details behind the first 43 bodies (new tally f/c), from both sides in the conflict, tossed over the line in small, paired batches.
--end update--

           The First Bodies Tossed Across Obama's "Red Line" in Syria         
(to start, working backwards in time from an early high point)

Part 1: What Happened on March 19, 2013? (posted Feb. 5)
Was there a three-part false-flag event planned? On one day: 
- Khan al-Assal, Aleppo (20 dead, mostly mixed civilians, Syrian soldiers affected), government blamed for the accident while trying to gas rebel areas (ACLOS page)
- Otaybah, Damascus Suburbs (5 civilian men of two families, a rebel, and a displaced baby killed, rebels affected), government blamed (ACLOS page)
- Baba Amr, Homs (no one dead?), government blamed, incident quickly forgotten to claim just two attacks, not three, happened this day. (ACLOS section)
    One of these was clearly by rebels, using crude sarin, one was allegedly by the government, also it seems using crude sarin, and the other fizzled out with few details and vanished from the record. Why then? What were they thinking? Who died and how, etc.?
Related: did the Saudis order this up?

Part 2: What Happened December 23, 2012 in Homs?   (posted Feb. 11)
    And what happened the day before? (7 Syrian soldiers killed in Daraya by a toxic gas, Dec. 22). Because one day later, activists reported a gas attack in Homs, maybe revenge. (7 men, rebels or civilians is contested) Was it Sarin missiles, or BZ grenades? Or something else, or two or three other things? Because there's no clear sign of sarin, opinions centered on BZ, which is non-fatal, and yet we've got 7 dead men. See also ACLOS page.
Note: a very-little-noted follow-up incident was alleged in Homs two days later, on Christmas. One wonders if it happened to affects some Christians... details scarce. It was noted by Julian Perry Robinson in this interesting and useful 2013 report.

Part 3: What Happened December 6 and 22, 2012 in Daraya?
     (added 11/27) Dec. 6 and Dec. 8 were covered at ACLOS but had no reported bodies tossed in either. One is in Daraya, Damascus suburbs, and the other in Safirah, Aleppo suburbs, quite near Jabhat al-Nusra's mass seizure of chlorine a couple days earlier...the Aleppo one (Dec. 8) I may cover right here, but the Daraya one is best lumped into the post on Dec. 22's allegations: 7 SAA soldiers killed swiftly by a mysterious yellow gas, while serving in Daraya. (ACLOS) The same exact number of adult males would die the next day in Homs, as if in revenge and/or to clarify it was the regime, not rebels, hurling gas around, and let's stop talking about Daraya, this is way up in Homs....

Part 3.5: WTF Happened in Daraya/Moadamiya, November 28-30, 2012?
Added August 16, 2018 - three civilian men, 2 related, one an activist, and perhaps a teenage FSA fighter killed, bizarre clinical signs and clues
http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/08/daraya-chemical-incident-november-30.html

Part 4: What Happened A Little Ways from Douma, Nov., 2012? (Feb 13)
     (Damascus suburbs, 2 children, both from displaced families from Douma, killed in other towns a week apart, in alleged chemical attacks that didn't get reported at the time.)

Part 4.b (built-in here): what happened even earlier?
  • Red Flags report: October 17, 2012 in Salqin, Idlib (Turkish border) - UN 12/2013 France Alleg. "did not receive sufficient or credible information..."  
  • Mid-2012 murky possibility 
  • specific but weak allegations in Baba Amr, Feb. 2012 (Robinson)
Flipping back now to part 1 in March 2013 and going forward - before hitting part 5 in April, in between are some unclear and mostly or totally non-fatal CW allegations. As tallied in the Red Lines report (current, first, imperfect version)
  • 3-13, Daraya, D.sub -UN rpt 12/2013 US alleg. "did not receive sufficient or credible information..."
  • 3-14, Otaybah, D.sub - Rep by Le Monde WP preview for 3-19
  • 3-24, Adra, D.sub - sarin alleged - ACLOS (little info)
  • 3-25, Daraya, D.sub - ACLOS (little info)
  • 4-9, Otaybah, D.sub - ACLOS Only animals died
Part 5: What Happened the Night of April 13/14 in Sheikh Maqsoud?
    (Added 11/26) (ACLOS page)

Part 6: What Happened April, 2013 in Jobar?
    Dadada (=forthcoming)
4-6 ACLOS page - 4/7, 4/11. 4/12, 4/13 ... 4/18 ... 4-25, Daraya, D.sub - US alleg. UN rpt 12/2013 "did not receive sufficient or credible information..."

Part 7: What Happened April 26 in Barzeh?
    Post added 12/13: (see also ACLOS page)

Part 8: What Happened April 29 in Saraqeb?
    Dadada (ACLOS page)

In between: May 1, Qusayr, Homs - mustard gas, Hezbollah blamed (ACLOS) otherwise, mustard gas claims are rare, and have mostly been associated with ISIS, used in Iraq and mostly used against Kurds in Syria and  - likely them here in what would later be a known ISIS hotbed at the Lebanon border. For the most part I've skipped ISIS attacks in my study for lack of controversy. But this one was blamed on Hezbollah. I still haven't studied it, but it got noted.)

Part 9: What Happened mid-May in Qasr Abu Samrah?
    Dadada - a minor and unclear incident killing at least one opposition fighter of some rank, that always seemed interesting

Part 10: What Happened over the summer?
    Dadada- includes May 26/27 Harasta, June 19 Zamalka - Khan al-Assal Massacre and stalling of investigation, etc...

Part 11: What Happened Aug 5 in Adra?
    Dadada

What Happened a Little Ways from Douma in November, 2012?

The First Bodies Tossed Across Obama's "Red Line" in Syria, Part 4:
What Happened a Little Ways from Douma in November, 2012?
By Adam Larson aka Caustic Logic,
February 13, 2017
(incomplete)

(...intro red line issue again, gap before this) - then November, two alleged chemical incidents are recorded, quietly - no news at the time, but later claims say each attack killed one child, and apparently no one else. Each child was listed as from a displaced family, both listed as hailing from the suburb of Douma. That's quite interesting, but it's about all we know, except one important visual detail to solidify the questions. Below: how we know this, what it means, and what that visual clue means in context.

Background: Why a little ways from Douma?
    From an unclear time in 2011 and into 2012, a group called Liwa al-Islam ("District of Islam," later to become Jaish al-Islam, or "Army of Islam") was growing in power. - headed by the late Zahran Alloush, a Saudi-backed Islamist son of a Saudi-based exiled cleric, freed from prison is 2011 to mollify protesters. He was reportedly swiftly armed ... by Saudi Arabia. Liwa al-Islam (LiA) took firm hold over their base area of Douma, at the latest, by the summer of 2012, when they orchestrated a bomb assassination of top military officials nearby in Damascus. This earned them much prestige, more recruits and funding, and so LiA started expanding further

    Zahran Alloush was, and his group remains, Islamic extremists. Alloush at least, before he was killed in a December, 2015 air strike, was publicly avowed to eliminate Shi'ites, Alawites, or people of Persian (Iranian) ethnicity from their parts of Syria. They're also not keen on government fighters or supporters,  secular-minded Sunnis, Kurds, Christians, Druze, or Atheists. 

Some people would leave Douma under this leadership, and thus become "displaced," or IDPs (internally displaced people - like refugees but without crossing into another country). They might move into Damascus proper, or might try just moving a town or two over and hoping for the best.

    At some point, LiA or allies expanded into each of the  surrounding areas of East Ghouta - Harasta, Jobar, Autaya, etc.  In some cases, they may catch up with people who had fled them in Douma. What happens then?

    So, here's the map that makes me bright this up. The incidents in question (red) happened in Bahariya, 14 km SE of Douma (November 17, to IDPs from Douma) and Rihan, 4 km east of Douma (November 23, to IDPs from Douma). Harasta is in purple - for future precedent, an IDP family from there lost a baby and no one else in the next alleged "Assad" CW attack in the area, Otaybah, on March 19 (but six men also died - see part 1). The IDP babies dying in alleged chemical attacks seems to be quite a regional specialty.

November 17, Bahariya
    Again, no one reported this at the time, but the VDC records a chemical attack from the air that left one boy dead, in the Damascus suburbs, on November 17, 2012. They seem to have noted it at the time, and thought it was a first, but otherwise it went unmentioned.

    This come in the form of a single martyr entry for Odai Haroun, a boy of about 10 (by the photo - age not given). He's listed as from Douma, but with a "martyrdom location" of Damascus Suburbs: Bahariah. The notes explain "he was martyred after suffocating due to poisonous chemical gas dropped from the regime's warplanes on Al-Bahariya town in what appears to be the first time such thing happens". Cause of death: other. After this I guess the VDC created the category for toxic gasses.

    I dug around for reports, using that spelling and the Arabic spelling, and apparently no one reported this to any media at the time. I found nothing except an entry in another opposition database, Syrian Shuhada. This cites the VDC but gives an age of 10 (they seem to offer rounded off guessed ages including 10, 4, etc. - it's not unique info, and matches my own guesstimate.) The notes here, auto-translated, say "You will see the status of suffocation as a result of toxic gases that have been dumped on the town of Al-Bahariyah Damascus countryside."

    Actually, what you'll see, in the blurry photo or video still the VDC provides ... He does appear have died of suffocation, gasping for air but finally failing. But he has no chemical signs, like cyanosis, for example (a blue/purple color shift in the skin). There aren't always evident signs, but ... if one scans for blue skin, one will find it. But it's not the right shade, nor at the right place to be cyanosis. Rather, it seems to form a sort of fresh bruise-colored band around his throat, about the size and shape of two thumbs meeting, to squeeze his windpipe closed.  Poor displaced Odai may well have been manually strangled, perhaps by the Islamists his family had fled in Douma. 
    Side-note: Bahariya would be the site of at least one actual chemical attack, in August, 2013. Right after the Ghouta incident, rebels in the area felt compelled - besides able - to launch at least three serious chemical attacks on Syrian soldiers fighting to reclaim East Ghouta. In Jobar and Ashrafiyah Sahnaya, on the 24th and 25th, they were hit with sarin, but none died. On the 22nd in Bahariya, they were hit with a blue irritant gas, not sarin, and no one died then either.  (see...)

November 23, Rihan
    A week later on November 23, the VDC records, a baby girl, Fatma Mohammad Shalhoub, died in the town of Rihan. There are no images this time. The notes specify "she was reported on 10-5-2013," and indeed, the number is far higher, so added later. Odai was #43,577, and Fatima was #79,338, six months and 36,000 entries later. 

    Continuing, the notes say "she was martyred after her family flee to Rihan area, she is one month old , according the doctor reason of death is the cold, or Inhalation of chemical gases as a result of the bombing. reports to be validated." They allege there was an attack, which might be what killed her and apparently no one else, and it was also cold. It says Date of death: 2012-11-23, so she didn't die after an extended illness, but on that same day. And the VDC's bet is on "Cause of Death: Chemical and toxic gases."     

    Again, I could find no news reports about her or an incident involving Rihan at this time. I didn't look everywhere, just a quick search. I checked Syrian Shuhada, but if they have her added, I couldn't find it. The name search doesn't work anymore. The very large family names list includes a "Shlhob" family from Damascus Countryside (which must be it), with a total of 12 members killed and listed. But the list as linked won't come up. 

Some likely relevant VDC martyr entries named Shalhoub in this early span: 
July 29, 2011 an engineer 'fell' from a roof and had 'regime thugs' throw stones at him, in Douma. This was not an Islamist murder of a man thought to be gay, for example.

2012 6-23 18-year old Tareq Fares Shalhoub was executed in Douma when his home wars raided - they smashed his hand, perhaps cut his throat, and rebels soon had the dead body (video).

Some Shalhoubs are listed as rebels, fighting with "FSA" - one of interest 2012-11-17 a rebel from Damascus Suburbs, Rehebei northeast of Damascus, shot in Daraa - a week before Fatima died. That's probably an unrelated coincidence.


.