Warning

Warning: This site contains images and graphic descriptions of extreme violence and/or its effects. It's not as bad as it could be, but is meant to be shocking. Readers should be 18+ or a mature 17 or so. There is also some foul language occasionally, and potential for general upsetting of comforting conventional wisdom. Please view with discretion.

Friday, August 7, 2015

Ma'an Massacre, 2012: Did the Rebel Offensive Falter?

August 4, 2015
(completed August 6)
(even more completed, August 7)

Maan (Arabic: معان - translates "glitter" or "gloss") is the name of a Syrian village located here on Google maps, and on Wikimapia, 22 km north of Hama, and near strategic Morek. Maan is an Alawi-majority (Alawite) village, with a smaller number of Sunni Muslim families. It was the site of a semi-famous alleged massacre by anti-government Islmaist forces (not ISIS) in February 2014 (coverage on A Closer Look On Syria - ACLOS)

This post deals with the less-famous December 2012 massacre in Ma'an, as covered on the ACLOS page Maan Massacre and its discussion page. So yes, this small town has reportedly suffered two massacres so far, at least. The best English source besides ACLOS is SyriaNews.cc, Feb. 14: What Happened in Maan, the Two Massacres.

By some informed sources, in the 2012 massacre, 23 victims, mainly men but including women and children were killed, some victims were beheaded, and bodies were burned. This happened during a three-day rebel occupation of the town, from Dec. 24-26 as reported by the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), who draw on anti-government sources and others as well. Rebels didn't directly (or widely?) acknowledge their occupation, but did report a massacre there at that time (SOHR did not hear about that - ACLOS detective work pieced it together, long before the SyriaNews accounts confirmed there was a 2012 rebel sectarian massacre there). 

But at the time, the VDC, Local Coordinating Committees, and others (hardcore rebel sources) say it was Alawite Shabiha militias who came in on the 25th, Christmas (which the Alawi have celebrated in the past), and killed the few Sunnis in town - though it took rebels a week to find out and tell the world, quietly and with no video.

The question taken up by this post is do the hardcore sources claim or deny that rebels were in Ma'an?  We'll see by following, to some extent, what they have said about that area in the surrounding days.

Intentions: Strategic, not Genocidal
In late 2012, Rebels were clear in their intent to conquer (or "liberate") Ma'an. This stemmed from their interest in controlling Morek - north of Hama, an important town on the highway to rebel-heavy Idlib province.

They were already exercising limited autonomy in Morek since early December at least, arresting regime loyalists and protecting the community. On December 1, they moved to arrest a dangerous criminal named Azam Awes somewhere in Morek. But as the opposition Violations Documentation Center (VDC) records it, an unnamed Daughter Azam Awes, age 5, was shot and "killed by mistake while the revolutionists were arresting her father." This 5-year-old girl is listed by VDC under regime forces fatalities/other statistics, status: regime's army, rank: civilian. It's not as clearly accidental that her dad, regime's army, rank unstated, was also shot dead that day, before or after his "arrest."

But full control of Morek evaded the rebels, partly they said because rockets kept hitting the town from Alawite villages nearby. And so, another front they were forced to open was just to the east. A Dec 20 Reuters report says rebels began to push into Morek this day, besides on other fronts in Hama province. They hear rebels had already "laid siege to ... the Alawite town of al-Tleisia, and "they were also planning to take the town of Maan." An anonymous rebel captain in Hama explained: "the rockets are being fired from there, they are being fired from Maan and al-Tleisia," ans so to control Morek "we need to take Maan."

Below, then, the target area: Crucial Morek on the far left, three towns to the east highlighted. Ma'an and Tulaysiyah are explained. Later reports say three Alawite villages, including Ma'an, were conquered by rebels but re-taken by the 27th. By deduction, the third town is probably Zughba - on Wikimapia labeled "al-Zoghba - Alawite village." Violence and deaths on the both sides are recorded here in the opposition record.In fact, it almost seems soldiers and local "Shabiha" fighters only died there. It's quite interesting, and covered below.

Area rebels had recent experience attacking Alawi "Nussayries" (religious enemies) and denying it on a massive scale. This announcement came ten days after rebels first announced the massacre in the Aalwi half of Aqrab, southern Hama, - up to 200 civilians killed by fellow Alawi of the "Shabiha" militias, they said, as rebels stood by amazed. There was a quick refutation of their story, and of a (clear) massacre at all, by Alex Thomson of Channel 4 News. His report was clear that anything bad that did happen was on the rebels who had kidnapped 500 Aalawi civilians, killed some perhaps, and threatened and lied about the rest. But the lack of anyone else seeming to care - with some days to feel that out - may have helped the Islamists decide they could do it in Ma'an as well.

And just then a new coalition of them was forming, officially on December 22; the Syrian Islamic Front comprised 11 salafist rebel groups, with Ahrar al-Sham (free men of Syria) being the most prominent of these. (Wikipedia) The Syrian Islamic Front did not formally include the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (Victory Front). But the "fronts" openly worked together from this inaugural offensive and onward - as well as earlier, in battles like the one for Aqrab.

Dec. 24th: Fighting to Get In
The Ma'an offensive was just one part of a province-wide campaign that saw fighting and often victories in several areas at once. Only having placed most locales, it's a bit confusing and hard to be sure I'm considering all relevant areas. It's a good climate for massacre shell games, or for someone like me to imagine them anyway.

The opposition's definitive Local Coordination Committees (LCC) used to issue daily reports with reported events and videos compiled by area. These will be the central source for the rest of this article (mostly via Uruknet, sometimes from the LCC's own site). (Note: anyone who wants to open these and read more, they have lots of videos - graphic - and load slow, and can freeze browsers)

The report for December 22 (LCC) shares nothing clearly relevant to this area, but says the Morek (Mawrek) offensive was well underway and yielding victories. It's the same for December 23. No siege is mentioned on Ma'an, Tuylaysiyah, nor Zughba.

But December 24's report mentions "clashes with regime forces in Maan Village" (perhaps meaning the whole area shown above, the "Ma'an front"). LCC reports 19 martyrs in Hama this day, with the most intense shelling in Hama countryside. "Maan: Severe clashes around the village between the Free Syrian Army and regime forces." Two rebels that get named were killed during the battle of Ma'an:
- Mohammed Bassam Jenani, 27, FSA fighter
- Faisal Hawedi "from Aleppo way" 
The affiliated Violations Documentation Center (VDC) has matching entries for both: Mohammad Basam Genane  from Hama:  Hamideih neighborhood, killed  2012-12-24  by Shooting and Fiesal Hwede Hama  Aleppo Road Neighborhood  2012-12-24  Shooting) VDC lists another LCC doesn't: Hasan Masha'an.

Another shared entry took some work I'll show. LCC Dec 24 video: Martyr Ahmed Yakflouni Al-Maarawi in Maan, Hama (rotated still at right). That's an unusual name I've never seen. I found no clear VDC match. The video says his name is  ابو محمد بتفلوني (Abu Mohammed something -  Gtrans gives "Ptvlona" - letter by letter says b-t-f-l-ou-n-ya) with Maarawi written out in 3 words as sons city Maara. Description says he was martyred with his brothers in Hama, near the village of Kawkab (south of Ma'an, labeled on map at the top of the article). LCC mentions this day "Kawkab: Fierce clashes between the Free Syrian Army and regime forces were reported on the outskirts of the village." Family might fight together, or try fleeing Ma'an together, to the south ...

But this is another killed rebel, a senior one. The Arabic name بتفلوني yields zero hits for the whole war. But cutting the first couple letters helps find in the VDC database 3 people I'd call B(a?)kflounia - t for k typo. The very guy on VDC, English: Ahmad Bakflone, non-civilian, FSA, from Maaret al-Nouman, Idlib (son of Maara). He was shot dead Dec. 24. Martyrdom location - Hama Suburbs: Maan town. Notes - Leader of Islam Battalion was martyred during the clashes with the regime forces in Maan town. No brothers are listed by the VDC this day, with that name. Brothers in Islam/fellow sons of Maara?

There's no word or clue in the LCC's report of the 24th about taking Ma'an, nor of causing people to flee there, nor of stopping them from doing so by shooting up their cars. That doesn't mean none of that happened, it's just what they don't mention.

One report from the day hears of a fighter jet rebels shot down: "Activist Sami al-Hamawi said opposition fighters used anti-aircraft machineguns to bring down the plane outside the Alawite village of Maan, which opposition forces have been trying to lay siege to for several days. He said the plane was flying low over an area opposition fighters had seized." Trying to siege suggests not succeeding yet. Over an area they did hold, outside of Ma'an, suggests the areas they hold are outside of Ma'an. This is what they're saying though, and not necessarily the truth.


December 24 IslamforHama video, from some Alawite village in Hama, or a road outside of it anyway, shows several dead fighters in camouflage along the roadside in the mud. This seems to be in al-Zughba, so it will be covered below.

Who Slaughtered this Family?
(optional side-note, possibly unrelated, possibly related directly, informative for context either way - nine members of a family fled from Damascus area to Morek, tried to flee at the time of the rebel advance, were caught on the road and executed with blades, bodies scooped up and filmed by rebels - rebels are vague who that was done by, or if it was maybe "regime indiscriminate shelling." - moved to Mawas Family Massacre)

Signs they Got In
A useful, if poor-quality video (stabilized, so not the original...) Free Sham address Shabih of Alawite village (trans) Ma'an Hama - Part of the battle and the Al Ahrar al-Sham Martyrs Brigades and the Al-Hamza against Shabiha of Ma'an Alawite village in the northern Hama 24 \ 12 \ 2012 has been killing some thugs and led to some (martyred?) Mujahideen mercy of God."

Fighters are seem firing from the orchards, around small stone-and-clay structures (right, some in a small pit). There are buildings nearby ahead (to the right from top view), as well as behind - this is pretty much inside whatever town. Possible mosque minaret seen at 3:16. The twin structures the scene at right is filmed at - old, indistinct, on a line pointing towards the minaret - the best thing to look for is a water tower we see the base of, in the near distance. It's hard to make out Ma'an with the two images Google Earth has. No spot match identified yet, and it might be one of the other towns, for that matter. (Awaiting a breakthrough.)

(follow-up: current Google Earth/Maps image is June, 2014, middling resolution. The only previous one, 2004, has useless resolution. A water tower can be and perhaps was demolished, to limit future resistance to siege. I just don't see one anywhere (maybe at the center of town, 3 tall lines? still present if so, but can that fit this scene?)

Wherever it is, they're taking return fire. The video ends on a panicked note of retreat. Is this done so clearly to help show how they never did get into Ma'an? Was it completely staged, or just a useful edit from the real footage? I haven't noticed any other clearly labeled Ma'an fighting footage. So this is the furthest we see them get. Note the weather: cloudy, breezy, recent rains (ground is green and seems damp).

Dec 24, Syria Politic (site closed over threats) reported at the time on the "Killing and wounding of dozens in Ma'an, Hama countryside after Islamists attacked "in revenge for Halfaya"" (alleged bakery bombing from the day before). Islamist fighters attacked residents "on the outskirts of the village. ... some of them were killed in their homes, such as Yacoub Salema." LCC doesn't mention that, and VDC has no entry.

SyriaNews heard from "Firas," a local who says he lost his mother and four siblings in this massacre, and was wounded in the second one in 2014. He said “The first time the Takfiris attacked was on 24/12/2012. There was a wedding and they took the chance to enter some vacant homes. They attacked three days later killing tens of civilians amid media silence.” The best reading is the wedding happened on the 21st, the attackers robbed homes then, and launched the actual attack with "slaughtering" on the 24th. (other details left out for brevity - see the article)

Some opposition sources reported a rebel attack and partial conquest on the 24th. Naharnet reported  how "Jihadists overran large parts of an Alawite village in the central Syrian province of Hama on Monday," referring to Ma'an, and citing the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. No civilian deaths are mentioned, but the SOHR heard "at least 11 rebel fighters and 20 regime troops were killed." The VDC disagrees - it was 17, at village alzoghba with no regime losses specified in Ma'an.

No one mentions a massacre of civilians at this point. But the VDC lists two civilians from Ma'an who were shot dead the 24th - Unidentified 1 and Unidentified 2 - both with notes "His body was found murdered and thrown in the village." Which village isn't specified, actually. But wherever, rebels then arrived and took photographs (at right) soon after. Or maybe the VDC just obtained these pictures somewhere.

The green ground, signs of mud, and indistinct light look pretty consistent with the rebel video filmed nearby this day. But implicitly they were not killed by the rebels, but by someone else. Note also the blankets - both guys were killed somewhere, carried to this patch of ground, and then laid there - they were "tossed" in to this spot, not found shot right there. It was smart to not claim that.  Now it was whoever - corpses were being tossed around just before the Mujiheddin arrived?
 
Silent Occupation?
Dec 25 LCC: more rebels dying in the battle for Ma'an.
- Yasser Mohammad Tinaoy, 33 years old and a member in the FSA ... from Andalous neighborhood. (VDC has Yaser Mohammad Tinawi)
- Hassan Mashaan (VDC has Hasan Masha'an , Tariq Halab neighborhood  2012-12-24  Shooting)
- LCC misses but VDC lists also Abd al-Raheem Mobarak    Non-Civilian  Adult - Male  Hama  Arbe'in Neighborhood  2012-12-25  Shooting

There's still no word about taking or occupying Ma'an, like the SOHR heard and like others claim and evidence may show. Still taking losses means still trying to get in, or facing resistance anyway. And there's still no word on the 25th, by anyone, of a massacre in Ma'an, which the VDC records later claimed happened on this day. Nor are any killings noted in Tuylaysiyah or Zughba, where no fighting is mentioned either.  This continues into the 26th, with another "warplane shot down in Morek, Hama." Two jets they claim they shot down. That could be. I didn't notice a video to prove either one, however.

The 25th is the last day the LCC shows any signs of a fight for Ma'an, with no mention of a victory. Air attacks were kept at bay, even though someone thought they were neeedded (if that's true) But something on the ground was slowing them own, it sounds like. Did they fail in their mission to seize the Alawite viallges, and just give up after so many died? Only 6 or so killed rebels are listed to the SOHR's at least 11, but the LCC wouldn't list or mention Saudis, Tunisians, etc. fighting with them.

By other sources, it seems rebels enjoyed a partial - or maybe total - conquest on the 24th or 25th, and apparently held whatever part for two days, or parts of three days flanking Christmas. Ma'an was reportedly re-taken by government forces on the 26th (or maybe 27th), as part of their announced and successful offensive in the region. ABC, Australia, reported Dec. 27: "the army took control of three Alawite villages in the central province of Hama, among them Maan, large swathes of which were overrun by jihadists two days earlier, the watchdog (SOHR) said." This could be that day or the day before, as it seemed ... I searched for a primary news source, didn't find it.

On both the 26th and 27th (Uruknet - LCC) the LCC has no mention of Ma'an or anything nearby, nor of massacres - they deny taking or losing the town. Still, rebels seemingly conquered Ma'an, and two other Alawi villages, but lost them within three days or less. They didn't even clearly admit to taking anything, which questions whether they ever intended to announce it. Or did they predict, as anyone could ahve, that they wouldn't hold that much hostile territory for very long? Did they know this would be temporary only?

Recalling that the whole point was that "to control Morek "we need to take Maan."" That sounded like a permanent arrangement they needed, something they couldn't likely get, and didn't get. All they were able to do was create the conditions where, well...

Slow News About the Ma'an Massacre of Sunnis, by Alawis
The news broke on January 1 that there had been an invasion of and a massacre in Ma'an. It had never happened there before. This was from opposition activists, widely reported in the Arab world, hardly anywhere in the West, and nowhere in English. Germany's Der Spiegel reported on the 1st this basic story (translated):
"...members of the militia had Schabiha in the village ... of Maan beheaded 23 people. Those killed included ... the few Sunni families who lived in the village. Also seven children were reportedly killed. The corpses were set on fire, so that some of them could not be identified."

"The massacre is said to have begun after rebels attacked checkpoints in the region on Monday (the 24th or 31st, not made clear here). These were then called the militia fighters."

Shaam News (Arabic)
(Shabiha) committed horrible massacres against our brothers the Sunnis, who make up a small percentage of the village ...  homes on their heads and then burned all the bodies .., has been reached twenty-three a martyr and the number is rising .. In addition to a number of martyrs under the rubble of demolished houses.
Pro-opposition Orient News ran a video on Jan. 1 or 2 (a copy) about how Ma'an "completed the series of massacres" by "Shabiha" and against Sunnis in Hama. Footage of the Qubeir massacre bodies is shown, along with survivors of Aqrab (the ones who blamed Shabiha, under duress, Alex Thomson thought). Other footage includes a burned corpse in a truck, and may be of Ma'an, or more likely just not placed by me. 

One scene, however, also appears in a 2014 video from pro-government al-Manar TV about the recent massacre in Ma'an. If so, it's clearly historical, not from the massacre that happened just days before, and it belongs here. (a still from each video compiled at right, Orient above and Manar below, each one stretched a bit towards normal)

LCC January 1:
More unusual, unplaced video, that could be related to Ma'an:
"Leaked : In this horrific leaked footage filmed by a regime shabiha, Assad's troops take great delight in terrorizing a group of helpless and bound prisoners before isolating two of them, who are stabbed to death before having concrete slabs dropped on their bodies" 

That video was since removed as shocking and disgusting, which it surely was. Less concrete slab, more concrete allegations re: Hama - LCC reports a high toll of 44 martyrs in Hama, "including 23 martyrs from the village of Maan and 16 from Hasraya," both sets in massacres that happened not then but earlier ... the latter, in a bit.
"Hama: Maa'an: 23 people were field-executed by regime forces in the village. It should be noted that they were executed a week ago and their bodies were found today. The martyrs are:Khaled Al-Khalaf Fawzy Al-Arer, Mohannad Al-Toqany and his son Khaled Al-Satof, Ali Al-Rady and his son, Turkia Ahmad Al-Mohammad and her son, Abdullah Khodair Al-Mohammad and his brother Ahmad, 5 people from Al-Awad family, and 7 unidentified children. It should be noted that there are bodies still under the rubble of burned homes."
It's not clarified how and by whom they were just then found, in their homes in the town, and why those people couldn't find them sooner.

Tulaysiyah and Zughba, Laundering Defender Death Locale
There was no word of massacre in these other two apparently overrun Alawi villages east of Ma'an. The only LCC mention of Zughba was to note a rebel killed fighting there. Dec 25 "Hama: Jaber Muhammad Ibrahim was martyred during clashes with regime forces in Zughba Village." VDC lists him, FSA. "Martyred by regime forces sniper gunfire in the battle to liberate Zughbeh." (note: LCC same day also notes "Idlib: Defected soldier Muhammed Mustafa Ibrahim was martyred, he is from Houla, Homs"). LCC didn't mention Tulaysiya.

The VDC, however lists 17 apparent defenders killed in Hama province, and 15 of these share Martyrdom location Hama: Zaghbe village. The Zughba victims, it says, died only on the 27th - implicitly, by the time gov re-claimed it, so... another regime crime? No. The VDC notes on all 17 have something about date of death, mostly "is unknown exactly."

Is death place known exactly?

One Tulaysiyah man (Tleseih) is listed dead - implicit Alawi resident. Some are from Helban, Salamaiya, 16 km south of Zughba (WM). Others are from Sabburah, Sheikh Ali Kasun, and other nearby places in Hama. No regime forces from Ma'an are listed. One is from Homs, "Worked at the Brigade 66" (just north of Halban). Implied there is a conquest further south than the Ma'an front.

Possibly related, LCC Dec. 24: Hama: More than 15 regime forces' personnel have defected on the road to Salamiya, east of Hama." This sounds like soe of the areas these 17 were from. And "More than 15" is pretty close to 17. Did they defect after death, or on video shortly before? 

As with Ma'an, there was no video of the bodies, the direct evidence with clues of who they were and how they died - but it happened after their withdrawal, right?

Video!
A December 24 IslamforHama video makes the case for them all dying here, from some Alawite village in Hama, or a road outside of it anyway. Village name ( الزغبة ) doesn't seem to quite say Zughba, but pasted in Wikimapia, it points only to there. This shows several dead fighters in camouflage along the roadside in the mud (one still at right), and in one case, a head-shot execution victim is right in the middle of the road, closest to the village. I count at least 16 victims.

A December 25 video shows more of the same scene, with many of the same bodies, and some others. I haven;t correlated a tally, but about 20 total sounds close. This is more than the VDC specifies, but maybe the same they list, as regime victims for this whole offensive. The SOHR also heard at least 20 defenders were killed. Is this what they're talking about? Is this really all there were? And were these really all killed right here?

top left, looking into town, bottom left looking away
Where is it?  A straight road into town, running maybe east-west (towards setting sun). First buildings on the left, on line with two tall trees. Further back, homes spread to the right. A thin tower is visible that way. Turning the other way, a tel (sharp hill) is visible on a line almost the same as the road's (labeled at right).

Checking all three towns,  and a couple others in the area, all these features say this is on the western road into Zughba. The line of (stones?) to the right (blue line) isn't there in GEs 2007 image not the one from May 2014 (current at Google Maps). But maybe that was temporary. It's still the best match I can see. See comparison below. The trees are further in than I thought. The tel is just right (bottom image shows line of sight to it - the smaller bump next to it is probably a shed that's nearby on a similar line)

one orange square turned blue and I didn't notice. Damn MS paint
About 180 meters from that first house on the left, a larger military truck (lorry) sits on the road, all its tires flat. Near the truck, a patch of pavement with a different quality (not always visible), a gap in the rock line on the north side just after (white lines - these appear in the 2007 image used at right - this strengthens the match).

The truck's direction of travel (suggested) is away from town. The bodies seem to be evenly on both sides in the stretch of road between it and town. It's as if they jumped off the sides for a while and then died, and then the truck stopped when it got empty.

The second video's description translates "Al-Nusra Front has protected them God Brigades stormed the village in the upper Villus (al-Zughba) Hama northern barrier 20 \ 12 \ 2012 was the liquidation of a number of thugs and hit a convoy servo escape the rest of the Shabiha resulting in the martyrdom of a number of Mujahideen mercy of God. The Almighty God willing this will be the fate of all children supporting the criminal murderer Bashar al-Assad"

The VDC describes these men as killed by "shooting," and a few seem simply shot. But in some cases, that's clearly not the case. I see here: at least five likely Islamist-style slaughter victims: skull sliced open from behind and brain laying aside, a throat carved out, an eye missing, an apparent hacked forehead, one man with his chin sliced in half and throat sort-of torn open, not sure how to call that - and some others that are less clear.

These bodies were apparently tossed out here  one-by-one after death. They weren't killed here, all the same couple of meters from the road, each somehow murdered in horrible ways in the open. Some would run further out. More would die in and clustered around/under the truck. Many were dragged into place, but the one left in the road argues against this being post-cleanup. This is a body dump, likely from the army struck rebels stole, and then parked here as a prop for a fictional story.

This dump might have been after the victims were first trucked to this town from wherever, dead or alive. That's an important point, as it obscures just where rebels were doing their most effective killing and capturing - at a time they were downplaying any conquest of Ma'an - the site of someone's planned sectarian massacre.


Unrelated? Hasraya Mass Graves and Checkpoint of Horrors
There is a parallel story well worth considering here, regarding the village of Hasraya, 24 km west of Ma'an between Kafr Zita and Jalama, where rebels took over and found a mass grave just as the Ma'an massacre is alleged. The implication is two same-day rebel offensives, in Maan and this way, with bodies found this way. Interestingly, it's about the same story in 2014 - rebels discovered a massacre in Jalama on the same day they denied one during their second conquest of Ma'an. That seemed to me like a possible means of Laundering the Ma'an Massacre

LCC Jan. 1:
"Hama: Hasraya: A mass grave containing the bodies of 16 people including women, they were all killed during the period of time when officer captain Ahed Abbas "Abu Jaafar" was in charge of the checkpoint that was located in the town before it was liberated by the Free Syrian Army. Some of the bodies were discarded in drilled sanitation canals, most of the bodies have not been identified yet."

Back on December 25, as the Ma'an Massacre was perhaps wrapping up, Hassariya yielded this news:
Hasra'a, Hama: FSA forces found a mass grave containing the remains of many martyrs killed by regime forces; many of the bodies had turned to skeletons. The victims are believed to have been killed at the checkpoint before their bodies were thrown into the mass grave."

The "skeletons" part makes it clear the people died long ago, decayed away before rebels even got there. But it's possible they were freshly killed but burned down to the bones. Rebels would claim the Ma'an victims were burned to the point of being unrecognizable, if not to the point of being skeletal.

Alleged timeline: abuses happened before liberation, under crazed regime commander - mass grave found once by FSA upon conquest, and as Maan massacre happens upon conquest, the 25th - graves found again, or new ones and also with old bodies, by locals 7 days later, as Maan massacre victims are acknowledged on January 1. Does that mean anything?

As with Ma'an, and unusually, the opposition's "activists" provide no video evidence for this Assad crime - they don't let us see under either of the two shells in this possible shell game. The checkpoint is distinct and well-framed in the video - in fact that seems to be the whole idea: "here's this checkpoint, right? Here's abuses happening right in it." That's exactly how it's filmed. I imagine it could be geo-located to the place they claim, and that rebel fakers indeed had access to it, for at least one late afternoon around then. Local victims, military or civilian, are likely enough. But the mass graves video, again, wasn't even shared, if it was even made.

Hasraya Checkpoint Abuse Video
How do we know crazy killers ran that place before?  LCC Dec. 25: "This video of regime troops beating, kicking and stamping on a defenseless young teenager at the Abu Hafar checkpoint in the village of Hasra'a, Hama was found on the mobile phone of an Assad soldier killed in fighting between regime soldiers and FSA troops who liberated the village."However, an anlysis suggests this video is faked. See split-off explanation here.

Map Center Map and Claim 
Syrian Map Center post from December 31 (Arabic) gives a map of Ma'an, with some areas just outside town to the north and south circled in blue and labeled 325 and 350. (They describe the village as "a base to direct the mortar fire," or had it directed against - might connect to these areas.)

2 reasons to mention this: they have a satellite image I don't think I've seen yet. As note, Google's Maan imagery is lacking. If I can find where this is from, maybe will help set the Dec. 24 attack video.

Translated, it says they were publishing details "a week after the end of the process," by Ahrar al-Sham Brigades and Jabhat al-Nusra - "aimed at a large gathering of Shabiha in the village." The operation was a "a big success" and "resulted in the killing of more than 200 Shabiha." This isn't reflected anywhere else - only the 20 or so dumped some kilometers to the east. Did they just add a zero, or get the alleged death toll from Aqrab two weeks earlier mixed in?

Body Abuse Video
But  bad stuff was happening and being filmed and they got video, or copies.

Two 'leaked' videos from the other side are shared up top for the 27th, not under the usual province headings. One is unplaced, one in Hasraya, Hama, and they both might be in Hama. The latter, will come back to. The former: Asad's Shabiha Mutilate and Burn the Corpse of a Citizen. My notes: men in irregular military gear, unafraid to show their faces, the one anyway (see right) stab a dead man in the belly very hard, then in the neck, insulting him for being an armed rebel. Then they douse him with gasoline, and light him up, swearing "we will burn the country for the sake of al-Assad."Only his left thigh is seen burning.

They clearly made this video message for someone to see, but didn't get to release it before rebels killed them, took it, and published it for them. Or maybe it was leaked, as described. Point being, Assad bad. The walls have bullet-holes, rubble - these "Shabiha" took over at this site, some hours before this video (rigor mortis) but no later than Dec. 25. And from the likely fake-ness of this video (high propaganda-to-plausibility ratio), I'd say these are rebel "defectors" with their old gear.

By clothing, I wondered if the victim was the unidentified Ma'an resident on the right in the image above. But build and all other clues suggest not, although the resolution is too bad to even be clear on this. I think this is likely a third possibly armed citizen of Ma'an whom the rebels "liberated." The hate in the stabbing, the hesitation at the neck, and the burning suggest maybe a lightly-filtered sectarian psychology like these defectors have.

Hama: Hasraya Checkpoint Abuse Video

August 7, 2015

The following was split-off from Ma'an Massacre, 2012: Did the Rebel Offensice Falter?
Running parallel to the rebel conquest of and massacre of a reported 23 civilians in the Alawite village of Ma'an, rebels also "liberated" the town of Hasraya some distance away and discovered a similar number of bodies there, they think killed by the brutal "regime" commander running the place before that.
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Checkpoint Brutality Video: Patently Fake
How do we know crazy killers ran that place before?  LCC Dec. 25: "This video of regime troops beating, kicking and stamping on a defenseless young teenager at the Abu Hafar checkpoint in the village of Hasra'a, Hama was found on the mobile phone of an Assad soldier killed in fighting between regime soldiers and FSA troops who liberated the village." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mW6k9CU4VUs. The same was video run again on Dec 26 as "Leaked:Regime Forces Torture Civilians at Hasraya Barrier" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOhR4_8c4Ck

Here's what I see: A young guy in soldiers' pants and a thug's t-shirt (shows a wrestler/bodybuilder with almost readable English name) - "torturer" - lightly beats up a young teenage boy. Another supposed soldier, besides the cameraman, is present. Here, torturer left, and observer, right. (the stamp, I don't know whose)

This seems most likely a total fake video, if not the fakest I've seen. Torturer throws the boy around a bit, with bouncing hits and stomps reminiscent of an old WWF wrestling match. The kid seems overwhelmed that the method acting got so intense (it is fairly strong stuff).

After a few rough moments with the boy's head between torturer's knees, observer slaps him on his elbow (0:40) in ... a reverse tag-team signal? ("hey, my little brother has had enough"?) The cameraman's finger enter's the frame just before that - did the signal originate with him? Torturer stops about two seconds after that (pre-arranged signal?), stands, and steps away. See the sequence at right - the last frame shows observer reaching towards the boy as if to help him stand. But then maybe fearing the psycho act was looking fake, torturer comes back after a few seconds with more possibly fake hits and stomps. But not a lot.

This is all well within the bounds of arranged method acting, like several other politically-motivated alleged abuse videos out of Syria. And this is also the abuse video about the checkpoint LCC posted twice, to help explain why bodies would be found there - maybe twice.

Alleged timeline: abuses happened before liberation, under crazed regime commander - mass grave found once by FSA upon conquest, and as Maan massacre happens upon conquest, the 25th - graves found again, or new ones and also with old bodies, by locals 7 days later, as Maan massacre victims are acknowledged on January 1. Does that mean anything?

As with Ma'an, and unusually, the opposition's "activists" provide no video evidence for this Assad crime - they don't let us see under either of the two shells in this possible shell game. The checkpoint is distinct and well-framed in the video - in fact that seems to be the whole idea: "here's this checkpoint, right? Here's abuses happening right in it." That's exactly how it's filmed. I imagine it could be geo-located to the place they claim, and that rebel fakers indeed had access to it, for at least one late afternoon around then. Local victims, military or civilian, are likely enough. But the mass graves video, again, wasn't even shared, if it was even made.




Hama: Mawas Family Massacre

August 7, 2013

The following was split-ff from Ma'an Massacre 2012: Did the Rebel Offensive Falter?
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LCC report, December 24, 2012: "Hama: Morek: A family of a mother, father, and two children were field-executed at the main road in the city. They are from Yabroud, Damascus Suburbs." A very graphic video (saved here, like most) says "Damascus Yabrud family out of the house Moas (  المواس ) have been targeted in the city of Mork." Note: these people will be totally identifiable to their families, etc. 

The LCC lists that video and another as showing "Regime indiscriminate shelling leaves many people dead and wounded, including women and children." We see between the videos a deliberately massacred family, as their text report noted. Young girl, skull split open and brain missing, look of shock. Mother, head split open and face distorted. Father, hand injury, shot in left shin perhaps, pained face with blood sprayed across it. A fourth adult-sized body, bleeding from many spots, totally wrapped in white shroud. These are in the bed of a rebel pickup truck, still bleeding. The next video (stills at right) shows the girl's brain on the ground at the tailgate of this truck, with just enough seen to say it's the same family. And there's a shot up family car next to it, license plate shown, armed rebels all over.

So ... Regime forces shot their car as they fled ... from something. They may have been carrying their own pre-wrapped martyr of prior violence, hoping to escape and also bury them. They then slaughtered them with blades, and just left the bodies for the rebel advance to find and secure. Sounds like typical alleged regime barbarity in rebel country - especially at the start, with loaded cars involved. Were they actually fleeing Ma'an or the other villages? The scenery is unclear (on a dirt road or lot, grass on the edge...). These head wounds ... they often seem to be an ailment of the Alawi, who might flee rebel-held areas of Damascus to their old village or town in Hama... and then flee again when rebels caught up. They fled a lot but in the end, rebels had their corpses.

The given name Al-Moas (  المواس ) has no dead on 12-24 in the VDC database, but a 'defected' sergeant of that name (someone held his ID card up once) from Idlib died 5 days later in clashes against regime forces. 

Looking from another direction, the day's victims were eventually found there:  a total of nine victims from Yebroud, Damascus suburbs, died in Hama: Mourek - more than could fit in that car. 3 men, 3 women (one listed as a man), 1  boy, 2 girls - most are named Mawas (مواس - same as above minus the al prefix) and all have the note "field-executed Family at the main road in the city." The entries link to the 2 videos above plus another showing a woman dead in the backseat of the same Saba car. Mahmoud Satof Mawas has a photo as seen dead in the truck. By names, one victim is his brother and one girl his daughter, and one woman - Obedeh - is specified as his wife, and as a man)

Saturday, August 1, 2015

Laundering the Ma'an Massacre?

August 1, 2015
(incomplete)
updates August 2 
(LCC Feb. 8 report)


This post is to sort out the details of three reported Hama province massacres of Febraury, 2014. These are:
- Maan Massacre, Feb. 9
- Jalama Massacre, Feb. 9
- Souran Massacre, Feb. 8-9

All towns are near Morek at the border with Idlib province, well north of Hama city (map at right, app. 30 km wide, border in green).

No one reports all three incident. Some sources heard about the killings in Ma'an but not the others, while others denied Ma'an and pointed to one or both of the other two instead. For that and other reasons, it seems likely these three massacres are actually one-and-the-same, with some reporting the basic truth (Ma'an) and others a laundered version that shifts and scatters the blame.

Let's consider the reports and records for each one.

Maan
(note: most of this section will be moved in time to clear space here)

Maan (Arabic: معان) is located here on Google maps, and on Wikimapia, 22 km north of Hama, and near strategic Morek. Maan is an Alawi-majority (Alawite) village, with a smaller number of Sunni Muslim families. And this was the second massacre there, the first (ACLOS page) having occurred on Christmas, 2012. Women and children were killed, some victims were beheaded, bodies were burned. This happened during a three-day rebel occupation of the town, from Dec. 24-26 as reported by the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), who draw on anti-government sources and others as well. Rebels didn't directly (or widely?) acknowledge their occupation, but did report a massacre there at that time (SOHR did not hear about that). The VDC, Local Coordinating Committees, and others (hardcore rebel sources) say it was Shabiha who came in on the 25th, and killed the few Sunnis in town - though it took rebels a week to find out and tell the world, quietly (see here, ACLOS section).

In the case of this invasion 13 months later (ACLOS page), both sides acknowledge rebel forces of the Islamic Front and perhaps Jabhat al-Nuara, conquered this Alawi town on the 9th. They boasted of taking a pro-regime village, and took videos to prove it (right, one verified against Google Earth imagery). The rebels in the area said they did so to stop artillery fire from there and to protect the locals. They say they killed no one but fighters. (see ACLOS: Rebel Denials)

 Government and supportive sources say Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Qaeda in Syria) was involved, and approximately 40-45 civilians were killed, including women, children, the elderly, and the disabled. They also claim 17-20 defenders were killed, and about 80 citizens are missing, likely taken hostage. That's about 140 lives taken, threatened, or ruined. Details aren't fully clear. (best English source besides ACLOS: see SyriaNews.cc, Feb. 14: What Happened in Maan, the Two Massacres)

The fatal victims in Ma'an have been partially named by these sources; a total of 21 names have been released, mostly adult males, some females, and most of them named Qaddour.  (list maybe in time)

Considerations for Below
Consider in the 2012 case how SOHR reported the conquest but not a massacre, and hardcore sources had it the other way around. In this case, rebels were quite open about their conquest, but it was the SOHR who reported a massacre - if smaller in proportion than that cited by government-allied sources. First they said only 25 Alawi, mainly fighters, were killed. Then they heard “more than two dozen civilians” also executed by “Al-Qaeda-inspired rebels” - including one entire family - in addition to “around 20 locals” or “village fighters defending their homes.” (see ACLOS section


Note for below how there are three tiers of knowledge here: it's no secret about 20-25 pro-government fighters were killed – some like the SOHR later head about a batch of 25-ish civilians on top of that - and others hear about an additional batch of dead civilians for about 40 total. This 3-part division of the death toll may be a clue to how it was laundered in rebel records, allowing them to count real corpses, but blame them on the government.

SOHR's overall non-rebel death toll: 45+, and possibly a big plus. One specific-sounding count was 62 people total killed by rebels. The most specific number of killed fighters – including some women, rebels say - is 17 – that would leave 45 civilians. Syria's government claimed in protests at the U.N. That 42 civilians were killed by the foreign-backed terrorists (see LA Times).  

Note: this is jointly reported by the Syrian government, informed locals, and the opposition SOHR's network, reported by the group, or director anyway, as true. That's a powerful package.

Other, more hardcore opposition sources don't reflect this at all – at least, not directly. No civilians from Ma'an are mentioned as killed, in any way, even in crossfire. The records might even show no pro-regime fighters were killed in the offensive, somehow. They do have a similar number of civilian victims of deliberate massacre, but in two different towns far enough away to call unrelated – if that's true. And these contain enough adult male entries to conceal a majority of the local fighters allegedly killed. Seems worth considering.


Jalama
LCC daily report, February 9 (via Uruknet), with 18 dead in Hama, and several already claimed elsewhere, has this first:
Hama: Jmleh: More than 10 martyrs were reported due to storming the town by regime forces. 

Then the immediate next entry (above) gives details: 
Hama: Jmleh: Mouhamad Ahmad Al-Muhsen, Mra'i Al-Saed, Ahmad Mouhamad Al-Muhsen, Subhyeh Ahmad Al-Muhsen, Child Mouhamad Al-Mura'i, Mura'i Al-Saed daughter, Mhmoud Al-Mura'i wife's and childern and displaced unidentified family were martyred due to storming the town by regime forces.

Shahd Mahmoud Merie al-Mohsen, age 4
The VDC, intricately linked to the LCC but with a little wider source collection, lists this event, and has it in Jalama (Arabic: الجلمة = al-jlma - LCC goofed it) Their martyrs database lists 17 field executed victims, mainly from a Moshen family, also including a few al-Saieds as mentioned by LCC. The notes say "several civilians martyred in a massacre during the storming of the town by regime's forces." The 17 clear matches are these 15 executed civilians from Jalama (6 men, 5 women, 3 boys, one 4-year-old girl with a photo, alive), plus these 2 women from other towns but who died in Jalama. Or, these full 17 with that note. Location: north of Tremseh.

The al-Saied / al-Sayed name appears again quickly - LCC Feb.10, 2 dead in Hama One is in Morek: Ammad Aboud Al-Sayed was martyred and 20 wounded were reported due to warplanes shelling on the city." It is, however, a common name. 

We have joint reports from linked groups, no video, no SOHR report, fairly little really to say this actually happened. The logic of the army or Shabiha assaulting one town and massacring people just as their allies needed help in Maan a few kilometers away is puzzling. There's also little good reason rebels would massacre anyone in in Jalama on the same day they did the same in Ma'an, even if it was by two different groups and then report one and cover up the other. In short, there's reason to doubt anyone stormed Jalama, although it can't at all be ruled out. This might be a fake shelf set up to hold the denied victims of the Islamists' Ma'an offensive.

Update: The LCC's Feb 8 report does give some reason: rebels claiming they blew up a checkpoint at Jalama on the 8th. Smoke is shown rising from a distance, in the evening or morning, of the day before they found freshly killed bodies there. Implied chronology: rebels destroy check point, army storms un-gaurded town, massacres locals, then rebels ... well, they don't show videos here that I've seen. But they were able to document it. 

So maybe this is a separate event from their overrunning of Ma'an. Or maybe that video is actually from Ma'an. It seems hard to be sure with so little scenery available and directions unclear. We'll have to leave it at not so certain.

Souran 
(Also Soran, but Souran is closer - Arabic: صوران - a mid-sized town on the highway north of Hama) 
This is a massacre of larger size than Jalama, running for two days, closer to the Maan front, and not reported by the LCC in any of their daily reports for Feb. 8, 9, or 10. 

Note: The days surrounding the Maan Massacre seem to have witnessed a surge of violence in rural Hama province, starting on the 7th and peaking the 9th to 11th, then falling off again - with no civilians from Ma'an listed as killed. Note: rebels claimed to be on the attack against Ma'an from at least Feb. 8, in the surrounding areas, taking bases ... losing fighters on the 5th and 7th of February, on whichever front, besides on the 8th, 9th, and after.

Soran, feb. 8 and 9 VDC lists 36 martyrs from Soran, Feb. 8 and 9 (it was 35 at the time, in 2014). The bulk of these are on the 8th. That's too early, one might think, to be Ma'an victims. But even without date fudging, the above can make you wonder. 

On the 8th, it says, 26 civilians were field executed, one teenage boy and the rest adult males, with the note "The execution of several people on the ground when the storming of the city." 10 died the next day, 4 of them clear massacre victims: two half-executed men who died later, two who were captured and then executed next day. Especially repeated family names: Qtait, Ibrahim, Ismael, Nabhan, Omer, Hussein.  

3 others at least the LCC also reports: 2 rebel brothers killed fighting in Ma'an on the 9th, so they don't count - and Ziad Ismael Husain al-Nabhan Adult male, age 40, killed by "regime`s army forces sniper`s gunfire" on the 9th - LCC has for that day "Souran: Zyad Al-Nbhan was martyred by regime's snipers gunfire in the city." But they never mentioned the storming of the city the day before, when dozens of civilians were massacred. Two were named Nabhan...


LCC: Feb 8 (via Uruknet) has 3 dead in Hama province, but the most demonstrations for the day. They have no martyr or 'regime crime' – or any - videos from Hama (except on the separate protests page) : "FSA Targets Regime Forces in Ma'an, Hama ... in Kafr Zeta in Hama the FSA repelled the attempts of the regime's army to shell the village ... Clashes between FSA and regime forces at regim's [sic] loyal village Maan's checkpoints." In Souran itself (as they spell, it, not goofed), nothing at all is mentioned.

Lack of "coordination?" 

Update: LCC Coverage
Well, as cool as that seemed, I goofed it up - Too many different years by now; that was 2013. Checking again, Feb. 8, 2014 - they do list it and were coordinated. In fact the top image is from this. Video of 5 executed men/boy (composite still at right)  Title:
ريف - حماة - صوران شهداء مجزرة ارتكبتها عصابة الأسد وشبيحته أثناء اقتحامها المدينة 8 - 2 2014
(Soran martyrs of the massacre committed by Assad and (Shabih) gang as they entered the city 8 - 2-2014) The scenery is just dirt, with no clues to help clarify if this is in Souran or maybe in Ma'an. And if it is Souran, it's also possible they were killed in Ma'an and just trucked here for effect. Note they're all on wrapping/carrying blankets already - at the lest we can say they weren't killed right here but moved a bit.

LCC reports for this day 32 martyrs in Hama. Relevant videos: "Soran,Hama: Assad's forces stormed the village and committed a massacre" (the one linked above) and  "Destruction in Souran, Hama" (rebels are in control now and filming in affected area). Text entries, in reverse chronological order: 

- Souran: Nidal Ahmad Ismael, Mouhamad Ahmad Ismael, Mhmoud Ahmad Ismael, Jumah Ismael Ismael, Usamah Ismael Ismael, Bsher Ismael Ismael, Yasir Mouhamad Mouhamad Ali, Ahmad awad Sloum, Mouhamad Yasen Al-Whbi, Abd Al-Qadr Ahmad Al-Nbhan, Mhmoud Abd Al-Hadi, Mouhamad Hsein Al-Ibrahem, Hsein Mouhamad Al-Mouhamad, Mutaz Hafith Ibrahem, Khalid Ahmad Al-Qtait, Mouhamad Muafq Al-Qtait, Ahmad Husam Al-Qtait, Mulham Jumah Al-Draj, Hsein Mouhamad Al-Khlou and Mohmoud Abd Al-Azezz Al-Nbhan were were executed on the ground by regime forces in the city.
- Souran: Number of martyrs who were executed on the ground by regime forces has risen to 20 martyrs.
- Souran: Regime forces executed six people on the ground during storming the neighborhood next to the detachment of military security in the city. (question: is this the 5+ we see above? Were they found and filmed, on those blankets, next to the security building?)
- Souran: Two FSA members were martyred due to clashes with regime forces in the city. (gaining access to the security building?)

As with the city destruction, the massacre victims are freely filmed by rebels who seem relaxed and in control of ... the military security buidling? This all sounds shady enough it's tempting to decide rebels did overrun Souran that day - besides Jalama - and Ma'an. But that really is a bit much for one day, especially when each one is accompanied by a reported massacre.

So in 2012, rebels were attacking Ma'an (update, LCC acknowledges fighting to control it at least), then they occupied it less openly, then later learned of a massacre there - that it turns out happened during their reported occupation. In 2014, rebels attack Ma'an, openly occupy it, and right away. learn of massacres - that happened in other towns. Still the lack of any enemy-side deaths, military or civilian, stands out as shady. Some people must have died, and they're either left out, or laundered. But so far, the seams of that aren't as clear as I first thought.

Al-Tamanaah Bus Victims
The other three Feb. 9 Souran deaths the VDC lists stand out as the spookiest link to the Ma'an Massacre, threatening to drag all these Souran martyrs that way. Above, the government is cited claiming 42 civilian victims … That may or may not include the three women presented as unidentified regime shelling victims (one of them a man), from Souran but killed near al-Tamanaah to the north, as they fled the south, and the violence no one else noticed ... probably passing through Ma'an ... or actually originating there. Rebels boasted how they left an axis open for civilians to escape.  It must be the north axis, for these poor folks to be nearing Tamanaah.
 
Rebels say their bus was hit with an artillery shell, and then they were on hand to take pictures. Consider, two of these women at least had their heads sliced with swords, it appears (see comparative graphic for the clearer case at right - I posted it on Twitter somewhere - and/or al-Tamanah bus victims) Or maybe it was artillery shells, as the rebels taking these photos claim. Alawite heretics are considered especially fit for beheading, throat-cutting, or, maybe to be less obvious - head-cutting like this. It's been seen around the edges of the Aqrab Massacre, for example.

Souran Summary:
VDC best count for this massacre: 30-34, depending if the sniper shooting or the bus victims count Scanning the LCC reports for April 8, 9 and 10 (all using the correct 2014 ones), it doesbn't seem the "Locals" heard about this incident. For Hama and Idlib, where Tamanaah actually is, no mention of people on a bus, or any similar grouping, or anything in Tamanaah or Khan Shikhoun area. How is it the LCC can miss the killing of these refugees from there, while they were also ignoring the Ma'an massacre?  It makes more sense if it's all the same thing, doesn't it?

Regime Forces
There are no 17-25 killed government fighters reflected in the VDC's separate databse for that. At least, not specified as dying in Hama province (it's not always noted, but usually, and can be falsified) - it's possible they were listed as civilians and blended into the Jalama or Souran allegations, which are heavy on the adult males. 

Depending on what "Hama" means, the VDC lists 2-5 apparently Ma'an defenders killed - or zero. These are partly after the massacre, apparently in the first battles to re-claim the place? In fact, none of these is dated for the main conquest on the 9th. Are they claiming it was a blood-free conquest, on the loser's side anyway? That can't be true.

Mouahmmed Ahmed Ibrahem
Province Lattakia Jabla - Brigadier general - died 2-11 in Maan (mistranslated Nan in English version)

Ahmed Sleiman, enigmatic "Shabih" hero
Ala'a Bakri Mahouk Hama 2-10 rank: unknown

Ali Hafez Naman rank unknown - from Baniyas - died 2 -12 in Maan


Ahmed Shaban Sleman from, rank: unknown
died 2-10 in Kokab (Kawkab on the map here, south of Maan) - photo, right
Notes: National Defense Forces

Ala'a Mouahmed Hemdoush
Province Lattakia  Qadmous
 Second Lieutenant  photo
2-08 shooting Hama

Summary
VDC's non-Ma'an totals: 17 Jalama + (31-34) Souran + (0-5) regime = 48-55 deaths. Compare that to Ma'an totals of 45+ (SOHR) or 42+(17-25) = 59-67. The number of victims we're looking for in a non-listed massacre is about the same as these combined records. Between the less-substantiated massacres, the few non-laundered fighters they list, and maybe a few missing entries, maybe these two batches are the same - the VDC does list the Ma'an victims, just shifted to two other towns. 

I haven't done a detailed comparison by gender and name groupings yet. This might or might not show a useful pattern. But one immediate note is how among the dozens of names given by the VDC and LCC, none of them is Qaddour. Even if the few missing entries were Qaddours, it's not enough to match what the pro-government sources found. If the Ma'an victims were shifted to either of these other incidents, they had their names altered as well. That would be a smart plan, or a basic part of one anyway.


But we have a similar number of dead at about the same time (as explained, February 8 deaths are quite likely). And they're all in about the same area. The map here shows it's not so large - about 28 km (17.5 miles) between Ma'an and Jalama. That's too far to be part of the same offensive, but close enough it could be all Ma'an-area deaths just fudged a bit.

Why they would fudge it just a bit instead of clear across the country, or out of the record entirely, is a good question. I don't know. Maybe none of this does line up. But it seems worth laying out, anyway.