2024 Escalations at ZNPP

August 19, 2024

"Dirty Atomic Bomb" Allegations

RT reported on August 16 that, according to military journalist Marat Khairullin “Sources on the other side report that the [Ukrainians] are preparing a nuclear false flag – an explosion of a dirty atomic bomb ... They plan to strike the storage sites of spent nuclear fuel of a nuclear power plant.” Specified as possible targets: the Zaporozhye and Kursk nuclear power plants (hereafter ZNPP  - in Ukraine but Russian-occupied since the 2022 invasion - and KNPP - in Russia, but threated in the ongoing Ukrainian invasion of Kursk). (RT)

A "security official" told RT about the same thing: "Kiev’s intention is to accuse Moscow of a false flag so it could justify using nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the security official said. The Ukrainian government has received orders from its Western backers to “escalate as much as possible,” he added." Unnamed officials were concerned Ukraine already had the capability and a special warhead already in place at the Vostochny Mining and Processing plant in Zhovti Vody (~100km nw of the ZNPP). 

I haven't looked any deeper into this claim, if there's anything public to even look into. But it's worth noting that only the most powerful bomb might seriously damage one of the plant's 6 reactors, and these are all shut down. A "dirty bomb" is radiological, not atomic - it just spreads some radioactive material that causes little harm. And if this bomb also released any stored radioactive material, AFAIK the issue is worse but similar - a moderate, localized leak of radiation, fairly easy to contain and clean up. So this could hardly be more than a stunt to raise concerns and tensions, and wouldn't even serve Russia vey well as a pretext. (as far as I know - I'm no expert)

Of course, Ukraine dismissed the allegations as absurd. But the Russian-occupied ZNPP - the largest nuclear power plant in Europe - has already suffered rocket, artillery, and drone attacks, dozens of them just between April and November, 2022. My previous analysis of the visual evidence (all posts tagged ZNPP - an attempted overview) shows these attacks were launched from the north, northwest, and northeast of the plant - across the Dnieper river on the Ukrainian-held north shore. This is what the Russian-affiliated plant managers had said all along, conducting investigations that tend to comport with my own. Ukraine, of course, denied this and blamed the Russians for shelling themselves, offering no explanation as to why or how they could keep doing that FROM THE NORTH BANK. 

After November, I didn't follow as closely, but it seems there were almost no attacks on the plant. Just one I know of happened in 2023, in April, with muted and delayed reporting, that just broke windows at the turbine hall of reactor 4 (see here, "4/12" entry). Then there was an attack I missed on April 7 this year, using a drone, inside the plant. Images: a small hole punched through a roof, "damage to the training building," the larger office-type building at the plant's main gate. (Zveda) A video shows several broken windows boarded over. IAEA would complain "For the first time since November 2022, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant was directly targeted in military action." (IAEA)

Then on July 3, a reported 3-drone attack damaged a power station near the plant, injuring eight ZNPP workers who were there, one of them seriously (msn.com).The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported July 3 that, according to the plant's management, "several drones struck locations in the vicinity of the site today, injuring workers and causing forest fires. These repeated drone attacks are a threat to nuclear safety and people’s lives and must stop, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said. The IAEA experts stationed at the ZNPP said they saw thick smoke and heard explosions coming from near the plant’s 750 kilovolt (kV) switchyard after they were told that drones had hit an adjacent forest, starting fires in windy conditions." (update 236) July 11: "The Director General reiterated that an attack last week that reportedly injured eight ZNPP workers at an electrical sub-station in Enerhodar had violated several of the seven indispensable pillars of nuclear safety during a conflict, notably one on protecting plant staff." (Update 237)

But it seems calm inside the plant held until a week ago. This dirty bomb concern comes on top of three attacks, in the span of one week (August 10-17) on or very near the ZNPP, and as Ukraine's invasion of Kursk oblast in Russia brings them perilously close to the KNPP there, perhaps hoping to occupy or just attack it. In fact, on August 14, it was reported "as a result of the drone attack, an explosion also occurred near the open switchgear of the Kursk NPP." (Rosatom 8/19)  I decided to cover all three incidents in a single post, with some excess detail left off for now.  

August 10 Incident

Around 6PM on August 10, as Vladimir Rogov reports, Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled Energodar - the city surrounding the plant -with at least 9 shells that impacted at the city's main water intake. I didn't find any visuals for analysis and unsure of its location, especially since the river changed shape last year following the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam (my research suggests Ukraine and its hydropower agency jointly engineered that disaster, as they attack the nuclear plant, to complicate Russia's position as greatly as possible). 

As Rogov put it in that Telegram post: "The Nazis continue to purposefully try to deprive the residents of this city in the Zaporizhia region of access to drinking water," Rogov wrote. "They do this intentionally - in the summer heat. What is this if not genocide? But all sorts of international "human rights" organizations will not say anything about this, because they work for the owners of ZeReikh - Western intelligence services." Strangely enough, the same was reported at least one other time, one month earlier, by several sources but with Rogov posting almost exactly the same news on July 11 - Ukrainians shelled Energodar's water intake amid the summer heat, followed by perhaps the same exact commentary he would use in August, maybe just copy-pasting it by then. How many times has this happened?

IAEA, August 8: On several occasions over the past week, the IAEA Support and Assistance Mission to Zaporizhzhya (ISAMZ) observed several fires at various distances from the ZNPP," some under crucial external power lines which, luckily, were not severed. "Over the weekend, the IAEA experts observed smoke coming from an area  to the north of the ZNPP near the Zaporizhzhya Thermal Power Plant (ZTPP) inlet channel." (update 241) 

The August 10 incident was soon eclipsed by the one discussed below, and didn't get mentioned until a week afterwards, when the IAEA would report "On 10 August ZNPP informed the IAEA team that artillery struck the local power and water substation in the nearby city Enerhodar, home to most ZNPP staff. The attack caused the failure of two transformers, leading to a citywide power outage. As a result, water had to be supplied using diesel generators. On 11 August the IAEA team was informed by ZNPP that power has been restored in the city." (update 245)

Aug 11 Cooling Tower Incident

The first word many heard about this was from Ukraine's president Zelenskyy on X: "Enerhodar. We have recorded from Nikopol that the Russian occupiers have started a fire on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. ... Russia must be held accountable for this. Only Ukrainian control over the Zaporizhzhia NPP can guarantee a return to normalcy and complete safety." It remains strange how he can be so certain "Russia" will stop attacking the plant once Ukrainian troops are inside it instead of their own.

People assumed there was usually nothing flammable at the site, so something was added. They decided on tires. "According to unofficial information received from sources on the opposite coast, the Russians set fire to a large number of automobile tires in cooling towers. Perhaps this is a provocation, or an attempt to create panic in the settlements on the right bank of the former reservoir", - said the head of Nikopol RVA Yevhen. (https://x.com/RussianPropX/status/1822722660272689456) Perhaps they thought this opening scene from The Simpsons was footage of the ZNPP? 

The psychology of the alleged Russian plot is pretty simple: these towers remain for many the only recognizable structure in a nuclear plant, confused by some with the nuclear reactors themselves. In fact, these towers are only used for cooling water, and at the ZNPP are set about kilometer from the nearest reactor, and all six reactors are in cold shutdown. But a huge, visible fire at a cooling tower is perhaps the most visible and understandable sign of danger at the nuclear plant, the best chance at causing a major panic. 

And, of course, the same cartoonish thinking would underpin it if this were a Ukrainian false-flag instead. It's random coincidence that has no reason to paint such a picture, although it could wind up doing so, hypothetically, at this juncture of events.

IAEA reported on the 11th that their team of experts stationed at the site "witnessed thick dark smoke coming from the north-western area of the plant, after hearing multiple explosions throughout the evening. The team was informed that an alleged drone attack on one of the plant’s cooling towers took place today. There is no impact on nuclear safety, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi confirmed."

"The IAEA team reported hearing an explosion today at the same time the ZNPP informed them that a drone had allegedly struck one of the plant's two cooling towers." (update 242) Note: "an explosions" heard, "a drone" reported. Many reports will cite 2 drones, but these may be based on confused guesses (see below).

Russian operators Rosatom (via Elena Evdokimova on Telegram (anyone else still miss her on X?)): "On August 11 at 20:20 and 20:32, one of the two cooling towers of the Zaporizhzhya NPP was struck twice directly by Ukrainian attack drones, resulting in a fire with burning internal structures. By 23:30, the main fire was extinguished by the Ministry of Emergency Situations."

"However, the internal structures of the cooling tower were seriously damaged. "The threat of the structure's collapse will be assessed by specialists when the situation allows," Rosatom notes." 

"Dmitry Rogozin published new footage of Zaporizhzhya NPP  ... According to him, the fire at the station was extinguished yesterday by 23:30." Video filmed from the east, inside the plant, into the setting sun - the tower with the fire is partly obscured - lights of a firetruck are visible, apparently between the towers.  https://t.me/readovkanews/84707

ZNPP director Yury Chernichuk: The drone, he said, “entered the tower from above and detonated.” Judging by how fast the fire spread, the official presumes that it carried something such as petroleum or napalm. “The fire spread very fast over a large area,” he added. https://www.rt.com/russia/602490-zaporozhye-npp-ukraine-drone-attack/

"the plastic steam traps caught fire" https://t.me/tass_agency/265728

"The administration of the #ZNPP reported that fire at one of the plant’s cooling towers on August 11 was associated with the burning of plastic separators. A flammable fuel, a container with which was attached to a Ukrainian drone, helped the separators to burst into flames." https://x.com/Amb_Ulyanov/status/1823103504203821488

This talk of structures, mesh and separators refers to one or another elements just above the tower's base, as shown in the following diagram (source: Natural Draft Cooling Tower (Natural Draft Cooling Towers) Explained - saVRee - saVRee)

After cooling the reactors, hot water is piped into the tower (pipe input on the left here) and sprayed into the air. The steam that escapes from the top is waste they try to limit. Droplets are partly captured with a drift eliminator, usually some kind of mesh, and drizzled into the cooling fill below - often a plastic honeycomb material. The warm water runs down the sides of each shaft as cooler air is pulled up the center. Finally, the cooled water drips down into an open basin across the bottom, where it's piped back into the plant for re-use. 

With the ZNPP entirely shut down as it is, the cooling towers were not running. Therefore, the basin, fill and everything would be totally dry and prone to burning in the right circumstances. The tower design is terrible when a fire breaks out - it works like a chimney, with the open bottom sucking in plenty of oxygen to feed the flames from below. An image taken well after dark from the west seems to show the fire worsened, even accounting for image overexposure - fire seems to be shooting out the top here. Note also at the base more fire or glare on the left/north side, closer to the Ukrainian side. 

The IAEA mission was given a chance to do a cursory inspection of the tower the following day, amid the contrary allegation. Would they discover the drones, the burned tires, or neither?  

Russian news outlets with video of this visit and the state of the cooling tower:

Tass 1:42 https://t.me/tass_agency/265856

Readovka 5:33 https://t.me/readovkanews/84777

zveda 0:45 https://t.me/zvezdanews/147687

iz.ru 1:46 https://t.me/izvestia/181663

IAEA Update 243, August 12: "Neither tyre nor drone remains were observed during the walkdown," although they only looked in the basin at the tower's base. "The team confirmed that there were no significant signs of disturbance of the debris, ash or soot located at the base of the cooling tower."  The following video still shows what they mean, and it suggests there was no site cleanup here to remove evidence. Other items seen include a nice square of mesh material and a short section of metal pipe, both seeming the belong somewhere above in the tower. 

Radial metal bands or wire usually remain after tires have burned, but nothing like that was observed. A drone, on the other hand, will be made mostly of plastic that breaks up on impact or detonation, and most of its fragments will probably vanish in such a fire. Who can say if some melted propellor blades or bits of circuit board rendered to ash are scattered in here? So we can be clear there were no tires burnt here, but we can't say one way or another regarding drones.

"[The IAEA team] observed droplets of burnt plastic and fragments of fallen concrete distributed across the cold-water basin. The team assessed that these droplets were consistent with melted and fallen plastic mesh from the fire. Samples of the debris, including burnt and molten plastic, were collected. The lingering odour from the fire was assessed by the team and determined that in the absence of a sulphur smell, was more likely caused from burning plastic" than from burning tires. 

The agency was likely just trying to shut down both sides' politicized allegations and trying to find some random accident, or a different, mysterious attack that fits neither side's story and could cleanly be blamed on someone in the group "both sides." No matching debris for either story is one aspect of this. Another as a new finding that the fire started higher up in the tower than it was reported or assumed. Update 243 also related:

"During the team’s visit to the cooling tower, it determined that the damage was most likely concentrated on the interior of the tower at the water nozzle distribution level, located at roughly ten metres high. The team has requested access to the water nozzle distribution level." Access was not granted at the time, "for safety concerns." (update 243)

A second visit followed the next day, on August 13. "Due to safety reasons, the team observed from ground level as ZNPP staff filmed and photographed the fire damage to the interior of the tower from the water nozzle distribution level, which is approximately 10 meters high. The photographs and video footage were shown immediately to the team." It's not clear how they observed, visually through some gaps in the fill (see their ceiling below), or by watching a video feed. So far, I've seen none of these images published.

“The evidence gathered reinforces our conclusion that the main fire seems unlikely to be at the base of the cooling tower,” Director General Grossi said. From the photos and footage of the cooling tower’s interior, the team identified debris consistent with a significant fire and observed dark scorch marks across the interior of the concrete walls rising from the water nozzle distribution level. No foreign objects or materials were visible." (update 244)

Aug. 11, My Analysis 

Looking at the visuals, I suspect they made the right call. It seems an upper fill was melted, dripping down black as seen, while initial views show the lower fill - a sort of light gray ridged material different from the black, honeycomb type material commonly used. PavewayIV tells me this might be "corrugated bonded PVC sheet fill" that has "been used for the last few decades." I suppose all the fill is the same, with the melted stuff turning black, but there may be a different layer above this. A piece of mesh rests on top. It may be too fine and clogged to be drift eliminator. Maybe the mesh-reinforced remains of some upper fill that mostly burned away? We can see here there's nothing else above that except the sky.

Broader view of this material in its fuller context: It seems all intact, with no visible blast signs or melting. There's also fairly little soot deposited anywhere in this scene. Dark streaks may be just from the dripping material, but in spots it looks more like smoke stains from the fires we saw. However the smoke would vent up, the fire and tower design would make sure it did. But the volume suggested here seems far below what was seen coming out the top, suggesting a much bigger fire raging unseen inside the tower. 

This all suggests the fire was in fact concentrated higher up and probably started out that way, like the IAEA found. Like the absence of drone remains, this elevated fire was seen as refuting Russian claims. But I'm not sure who, if anyone, specified the impact was at the base. The plant's director Chernichuk said the drone(s) “entered the tower from above and detonated.” Someone else may have evidence the other of 2 drones hit the base, or someone may have just guessed that from how the fire wound up there. I would guess that. In fact the whole second drone might be deduced from the knowledge of one coming down, alongside a fire also breaking out at the base.

But if the IAEA was trying to shut down the "Russian version," they failed: the meaningless lack of damage or drone parts and the fire beginning at the water distribution level are fully in line with a drone arson from above as reported. As in the basin, the IAEA reports "No foreign objects or materials were visible" in the fire area. Again, this is strong evidence against tires being burnt up here either, and fairly neutral evidence regarding possible drones.

No obvious blast damage is shown in these bottom views, and there is perhaps none in the upper views.  But little to no damage is expected in the alleged scenario. Just a strong pop would be needed to splash and ignite the liquid. Two drones allows for one to come "down the chimney" and one to hit the base, with both vanishing in the fires. But no base hit seems necessary - the design is for liquids to drain entirely below, and I reason the same would happen here, but with the fluid on fire, melting some plastic, getting too complicated to be sure, and then ... whatever mix of solid and liquid might wind up spread over most of the area to start with, and easily fill the basin as seen, better than the alleged drone blast would. Maybe both drones came down from above, with 2 containers of fuel to spread inside the tower. Or maybe there was only one drone, as some of the best sources say, and some confused guess had others thinking 2 would be needed to explain all that.

The IAEA findings leave other options open: some strange accident in the same area, perhaps involving strangely hidden Russian weapons, or a Russian false-flag, maybe just as described but with Russian drones. However, none of the IAEA's findings seem to contradict the allegations of a deliberate drone attack from the Ukrainian side. All their observations are, in fact, fully consistent with that scenario.

Note: update 244 from the 13th also mentions "During its walkdown and just after requesting access to cooling tower 2, the ISAMZ team was promptly accompanied back to a secure location due to an air raid alarm."

August 17 drone attack

Four days after the IAEA's second colling tower examination, yet another attack was reported. Zaporijie24: "Today at 7 am, a Ukrainian Armed Forces drone dropped a charge on the road that runs along the power units on the outside of the perimeter. Personnel constantly move along this road."

"No one was hurt. But once again, a direct threat to the safety of personnel and the plant was created."

"IAEA inspectors present at the plant were informed of the incident and visited the crash site." (includes 3 photos, including one with inspectors, at right) https://t.me/zaporojie24/11009

Mapping: on the main access road just outside the eastern security perimeter, alongside the spray ponds and fairly near the main, southern entrance. https://x.com/CL4Syr/status/1824751662227210345

IAEA update 245, August 17 

"The nuclear safety situation at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is deteriorating following a drone strike that hit the road around the plant site perimeter today, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said."

"“Yet again we see an escalation of the nuclear safety and security dangers facing the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. I remain extremely concerned and reiterate my call for maximum restraint from all sides and for strict observance of the five concrete principles established for the protection of the plant,” said Director General Grossi."

"Earlier today, the IAEA Support and Assistance Mission to Zaporizhzhya (ISAMZ) team was informed by ZNPP that an explosive carried by a drone detonated just outside of the plant’s protected area. The impact site was close to the essential cooling water sprinkler ponds and about 100 metres from the Dniprovska power line, the only remaining 750 kilovolt (kV) line providing a power supply to ZNPP."

"The team immediately visited the area and reported that the damage seemed to have been caused by a drone equipped with an explosive payload. There were no casualties and no impact on any NPP equipment. However, there was impact to the road between the two main gates of ZNPP."

The photo at right, facing south towards the training center, shows the road impact with light scoring on the north side of the impact (the small indentation), chipping to the south, including a large chunk knocked lose, and debris spread to the south. This suggests the drone was basically following the road, from north to south, when it hit. That doesn't mean much for most drones than can maneuver and turn any direction, but it's a small detail I can add.

Was it trying for anything specific? Maybe targeting a certain employee on the road who just managed to escape injury? Or was this just a vague signal they wanted to send, or just another random escalation? The external powerlines are very close by (seen in the above photo), but these are vulnerable to fire, and hitting the road is unlikely to start one. Unless maybe it had managed to blow up the car it was targeting?

Below, the partial drone remains as shown in a third photo I know of. I don't know what to make of that, but here it is.

Others Attacks to Come?

If so, I've already made this space to cover it here with updates.