Triangulating the Source of Kiev Apartment Missile Attack

February 27, 2020

adds Feb. 28

Among the charges leveled against Russian forces in their invasion of Ukraine is a deliberate missile attack on a residential apartment building in Kiev (Kyiv) early the 26th, destroying several corner apartments but reportedly killing no one, per initial reports, and wounding just a few. It's not clear what kind of missile fired from where except that it's surely Russian and surely ordered by Putin to kill civilians, even at the cost of undermining HIS promises to the contrary. And then he didn't even get to kill anyone!  

Russia says ... per RT "Moscow has not commented on the reported incident. Russia claimed earlier that it was only hitting military sites, such as airfields and radar stations, and not targeting civilians." They add this by way of a possibility: "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv International Airport (Zhuliany) is not far from where the missile reportedly landed." Suggested; they missed a legitimate target. As will become clear below, that's not it.

But in a tweet, RT adds "Projectile smashes into a residential building in Kiev: A failure in the missile guidance system of the Ukrainian Buk-M1 has resulted in a missile hitting the corner of a residential building, according to RIA Novisti citing MoD source." That's probably just a source's opinion or guess, but let's keep it in mind. 

Others at least are raising questions. Military studies PhD student Rob Lee notes: 

"We should wait for missile experts to identify what kind of missile this is before jumping to conclusions, but it doesn't look like a ballistic or cruise missile to me. Cruise missiles are primarily what Russia has been launching at Kyiv. This could be an air defense missile."

Ali Abmuinah notes this and raises other questions here: https://twitter.com/AliAbunimah/status/1497608713498251266

But to the rest of the world, it was pretty much established fact that Russia was lying yet again, just to sow some terror. 

Mapping Two Spots to Identify a Third 

Some Open-Source Visual Work - I was missing this, and only started rusty. Ok, I saw videos of the impact and aftermath, - AFP photo:

Video from the ground: https://twitter.com/Cirenderaliberi/status/1497844317481807872

It's said to be in the southwest part of the city, about 1.5 miles from the Sikorsky Memorial Airport or "not far from the Kyiv International Airport (Zhuliany)." Someone else found the strike location: Lobanovskyi Ave, 6А, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03037 (geolocation 50.4228279, 30.4653212). I checked and it's a great fit, 99% certain. A Google maps street view of the north face confirms the match. It seems vacant then (2015). It was hit on the northwest corner, so from the west and/or north. That saves me a step. The photo above is also from the north. Note the circular park between 3 towers south of it - that appears. This spot - red star in the maps below - is just north of the mentioned airport. 

This view of the rocket impact seen from the south-southwest shows the west facade clearly lit up and primarily impacted. (all colored lines just to establish angle of view relative to building footprints) 

Next, there's a video showing the whole rocket plume from launch to impact. Whatever the origin, I found that here on Twitter, posted as supporting a Ukrainian SAM strike. I can verify it's the same scene, Kyiv, around 8 am, details below.  Here is a panoramic image from that video: 

Then I located filming area for this video: 50.23.09.4N 30.78.45.8E. Video time stamps give 8:11 and 8:12 am for missile strike. The solar azimuth would be 119/299 degrees then, and the sunlight is shining nearly up this street, so the street must run around 45 degrees. I looked around 2 miles and further to the south of impact, along streets with the right angle, for the unique arrangement of roofs seen: sky blue, red, then green w/solar panels. I found such row of homes south of the airport, 4.29km or 2.66 miles south of impact, in an area called Zhuliany on Wikimapia. Most details directly match, including: outbuildings around the green roof and a red thing at the peak of it, and nearly all other surrounding building match for shape and color and position, down to the brown roofed larger place ahead on the left, labeled "Cappucino house" and a row of little sheds in the foreground. 

Differences: the solar panels aren't there yet on the green roof in satellite or street views - the white house isn't there yet at all in street view (May 2015), the fence is different, and there's no gate across that street. But the house is there in the satellite view (date? Google Earth not working here), in a dirt lot suggesting construction. Between then and yesterday, it seems the second building had been added. 

Between the line to impact and the line from the new white house is a larger building marked in gold. That must be a secondary school to the north (СЗШ №279 ім. П. Григоренка), so marked on my wider map below. 

The firing spot is off to the NW, nearly lining up with a chimney on the left. The exact spot to start the line is harder to say, but the resultant angle to firing spot is around 305-310 degrees, give or take a few degrees.  

The distance out on that line seems similar to the 4.3 km to the strike, to my eyes looking a bit closer. Around that far on that line is a fairly inhabited area with some fields, car parks, and a Bratske cemetery popping out as possible (B.C. on the map). The firing spot might be a bit further out (west) than this lavender oval, but I set it pretty wide on the north-south axis. The highway there marks Kyiv city outskirts on Google maps; spots inside the city are better indicated, but some outside the line are possible. That would mean some 5km to the stricken building, at whatever exact heading, depending where it started/what angle it impacted.

Conclusion

As for what that means ... Those who follow more closely, the same people in a while when some dust settles, could make better use of this evidence. It's made to sound like Russian forces are invading every part of Ukraine, including suburbs and bases all around Kiev, despite constantly failing, dying surrendering. It sounds like they had some random, scattered fighters running around shooting in the streets of the capitol overnight before they were chased away. Maybe that's so, odd as it would be, and maybe they even had military vehicles to bring them, and others to fire missiles. Maybe there's even visual evidence for that. I don't know.

To the extent a Russian presence is possible or might even be proven at a certain spot, and say the missile/rocket trajectory is found to point from the building right to that spot - it will also need to be on this line of sight to the launch. It could be the Ukies put themselves on that line to the Russians but not so far out, and then it might be this alternate view that proves they were too close to be anything but Ukrainian. In that case, the vertical angle of impact will have always seemed a little odd to be coming from so far away.

The motive would be to demonize Russia further with a bold false flag event. I don't strongly suspect that yet, but I wouldn't be surprised, and I emphasize it mainly for being the most interesting possibility.

Alternately, this could be an accident by Ukraine with no motive, as someone at Russia's MoD suggested. The arc does bend groundward ... I'm not sure if that's unusual, but it seems odd, like a misfire. Then it could be an accident by Russian troops trying to shoot down one of Ukraine's non-fictional jets, or as most presume, it could be a self-defeating act of reflexive terrorism by Mr. Putler over there. Those are the four options. Someone may have reliable evidence on jet activity at the time, etc. Discuss or something. 

A Second View, Improvements, Firing Spot (added 2/28)

view 2  https://twitter.com/24UkraineNews/status/1497461644997193728

located here, to the north - lines of sight, adding to a water tower 

south view improved, distance features ... line from chimney right between lime and brown lines now graduated from purple to magenta ... ignore blue lines along streets with street views

extending both to convergence ... there's a huge dirt lot here, as shown, but may be a football/soccer club now. But the loop off the highway is better indicated anyway. That's about 1.5 km from the airport.

 

Any Russians in here, trying to hit that airport, overshooting it a few kilometers? Maybe Ukrainians trying to defend the airport and undershooting by accident? Not owning up to their mistakes, to put it mildly if so. Or was there any mistake to admit? That blown up corner for one really worked very poorly for Mr. Putler over there, just clarifying his evil intent (as if it were needed, or ever had been needed).

map https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1498108326445522948 No sign of Putler forces where this missile originated.