Re-Considering Assad's 100+ Chemical Attacks

November 10, 2018
(incomplete)

An October BBC Panorama special alerted the public to Assad's ongoing chemical weapons usage - dramatically tallying 106 attacks just from 2014 to the present - that is, all after Syria supposedly surrendered its chemical weapons. Most of these have been chlorine attacks, but eventually sarin has snuck back in. There are also five CW attacks, mainly with mustard gas, blamed on ISIS in that 106, so it's 101 blamed on Syria, or 106 if you blame Syria for ISIS.

They found zero blamed on any other rebel groups. Well that can't be complete. I still haven't watched the program, and don't have much to say except this tally intrigued me. I perused a critique posted at Tim Hayward's blog, and noted Adrian Kent's comments below on the BBC's answers to his questions, including where they got this tally.

I also looked for whose number is this 106. But it seems to be new, a current tally reached by just whoever with whoever's help, for this Panorama program. One place it occurred is the Atlanticist propaganda outlet EA Worldview, following on the report with what I take as a fair breakdown of those 106 alleged Assad-ISIS CW attacks broken down by year. https://eaworldview.com/2018/10/assad-regimes-101-chemical-weapons-attacks-in-syria-since-2014: 30 attacks
2015: 28
2016: 23
2017: 17
2018: 8

What's cool is how I can take this and compare it to my own report compiling CW attack reports, assembled in early 2017, just before the khan Sheikhoun incident. So my totals for 2017 and 2018 are roughly nil. But the other three years can be compared, and our numbers are pretty close, actually, suggesting I didn't miss as many as I thought I probably did. It was never sure to be comprehensive, but did try for that, listing 138 attacks just up to March, 2017.
http://ciwclibya.org/images/Red_Flags_Across_the_Red_Line_final_3-3-17.pdf

I used a different tallying, excluding ISIS attacks (not controversial enough to be of interest to me), including ones by other rebels (22 in the relevant span, to the BBC's zero), a few uncertain cases (rep. CW deaths w/no rep. event, etc.), and mainly a lot of attacks blamed on the government but that I think are also by non-ISIS rebels... as I've explained variously in other places, case-by-case, in many cases over the years.

Some errors and omissions in this "red flags" report. For example, 12-12-2016 Kallaseh was an error, the Dec. 9 incident misread as a fresh attack, not a dated repetition. So that tally drops by at least one. I missed an alleged rebel sarin attack in 2014 on the same day as another one, so that tally goes up one here.

By year, I count:
2014: 45 (was 44) (9 10 by opp.)
2015: 28 (7 by opp.)
2016: 23 22 (5 by opp.)

So 101 or 106 sounds like they skipped some 22 rebel attacks, caught nearly as many alleged gov. ones I missed, included (5?) ISIS ones, and coincidentally got the same total as me for 2015 and (prior to revision here) for 2016. I count 50% more attacks than them in 2014, mostly due to considering 10 CW attacks by the opposition that the BBC didn't hear about, I presume.

Cited for many rebel attacks: an OPCW report following up on the requests of the Syrian Arab Republic. They don't list this on their site, but did produce it.
http://www.the-trench.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/OPCW-FFM-20151217-Syria-request-Rev1.pdf

Some parts included in other context here:
http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/11/sarin-and-foul-irritants-events-list.html

Chemicals used in the rebel attacks; chlorine, unclear non-persistent irritants, unclear apparent nerve agents, and sarin. Foul-smelling, caustic, yellow, impure sarin. Very similar to, if not the same as, the kind used in all the attacks blamed on Syria. Sarin has been OPCW-verified in THREE fatal attacks on Syrian soldiers in 2013 (19 March, 24 August, and 25 August), but this study excludes 2013. In the later span, the OPCW verifies sarin exposure in only one such case (15 February, 2015 in Daraya, very near the launch of the 25-8-13 rebel sarin attack).

2014: 45 incidents
civilian fatalities (min) 21-24
11/5/3/5 (m/w/b/g)
rebel fatalities:  27
government fatalities 77?
red flags 43

35 att. to Syria + 10 att. to opp.
Those ten;

13 April Al-Maliha, Damascus suburbs - Soldiers gassed, OPCW report -

16 April Al-Maliha, Damascus suburbs - Soldiers gassed, OPCW report, fighting militants in a tunnel, 8 casualties, no deaths, but Syrian tests said to show sarin, no OPCW verification. Report cited: “blood AChE activity in Syrian soldiers: 2013-2015.” Notes: "This document included 13 reports of AChE results dated in 2013, 2014, and 2015. Only three of these reports could be clearly linked to incidents included in the mandate; Jober (16/04/14), Al-Maliha (16/04/14) (NV 150), and Darayya (15/02/15) (NVs 41 and 47)." The third case has OPCW verified sarin exposure, but not these two. But they didn't disprove it either, that I've seen.

16 April Jobar: somehow missed in my report, a document claims another jobar attack on the same day - Syria apparently found reduced AChE activity as with sarin or nerve agent usage. (see above, same day)

24 April Nawah, Daraa - Soldiers gassed, Government blames terrorists, 70 soldiers killed (rounded?), no details. OPCW report  - Jabhat AlNusra gassed and overran base on Golan border, video count of exactly 70 soldiers (min.) dead. Chemical and method totally unclear, other than large amounts of whitish smoke are shown as related, some oddly smoke-stained faces, other clues still not fully reviewed years later. ACLOS
http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Talk:Alleged_al-Nusra_Chemical_Attack,_April_2014

11 July Jobar, Damascus suburbs  - Soldiers gassed, OPCW report 6 cas. no deaths

11 July Al-Maliha, Damascus suburbs - Soldiers gassed, OPCW report

23 August, Jobar, Damascus - Soldiers gassed, OPCW report 11 cas

29 August, Jobar, Damascus - Soldiers gassed, OPCW report -
2 incidents in a day, confused, both in Jobar; first, incapacitated soldiers captured, killed, only 2 survivors - later, 33 effected, many blacking out, but all got away and no one died.
http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/11/sarin-and-foul-irritants-events-list.html
Sarin: Not clearly reported, but symptoms + smell may be consistent - no sign that it was checked for or ruled out. This was an important event to the Syrians: UN report: "an agreement was reached between the authorities of the Syrian Arab Republic and the FFM to focus initially on the incident [sic] reported to have taken place on 29 August 2014 in Jober. The fact that this particular event involved the highest number of casualties from among all of the incidents described in Note Verbale 150 served as the basis for this agreement." But having two attacks taken as one confused things so "The FFM was not able to identify a cohesive narrative ..."

1 September Nubel and AlZahraa, Aleppo - OPCW report Shia villages 5 cas, 1 death

10 Sept. Al-Kabbas, Damascus suburbs - Soldiers gassed, OPCW report 

2015: 28 incidents
civ fat 13
6/3/2/2  (m/w/b/g)
reb fat 5
gov fat 13
red flags 32 
in 28 incid.
21 att. to Syria + 7 att. to opp.
those seven:

Jan. Jobar, Damascus, Soldiers gassed, OPCW report, app. 20 casualties, no deaths

8 Jan. Nubel and Zahraa Alep. chlorine? Soldiers gassed, OPCW report, 17 casualties, no deaths

15 Feb. Daraya, D.sub Sarin, Soldiers gassed, with sarin, OPCW report
“burning nylon” smell 8 casualties, pinned under gunfire, watched rats die “screaming” No human deaths. OPCW verified sarin exposure of the affected soldiers (but they won't confirm how)
http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/11/daraya-sarin-attack-feb-15-2015.html

6 April, Jobar, Damascus soldiers gassed, 4 casualties, OPCW report

25 April, Ishtabraq, Idlib
Choking agent  - Alleged: HTS Islamists "liberating" Idlib province gassed Alawi village via rockets prior to seizing it. After, they killed and abducted many. ACLOS

29 May, Harasta, D.Sub. Soldiers gassed, 7 killed - OPCW report

29 May, Tadhamun, Damascus Soldiers gassed, 6 killed - OPCW report - twice in a day, killing 13 total in 2 nearby areas.
OPCW says: "Another report, dated 31/05/15, contained results of tests conducted on seven and six fatalities which occurred in Harasta and Al-Tadhamun respectively. This information is not clearly linked to the incidents described in NV 43. Moreover, in the conclusion of the report, the AChE activity was normal."  But they Syrians thought it might have been a sarin attack? Unclear why, if there was some error, etc.

2016: 22 Incidents
civ fat 120 or more
(mostly in Dec. sarin attack in rural Hama)
reb fat 3
gov fat 28?
red flags 33
in 23 incid.
17 att. to Syria + 5 att. to opp.

Those five:
9 March S.Mahsoud, Alep. Yellow phos. or... yellowish + (organo)phosphorous = sarin? see 7 April. Rebels blamed, PressTV. No deaths reported.

7 April S.Mahsoud, Alep. A month later, same besieged area, yellow … chlorine? released. 23 killed! Rebels with Jaish al-Islam admit - retract, play with words - gassing Kurdish fighters, (say unauthorized), high toll ACLOS Sputnik
http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Talk:Alleged_Chemical_Attack,_April_7,_2016
Noting later: two videos show a huge amount of yellow stuff expanding. It's not green enough and not heavy enough to be chlorine.

This lighter, golden-yellow stuff could be our best view yet of the sarin used in Syria (impure, yellow, caustic, foul-smelling), or just something similar - that killed 23 people upon open release... (slightly color-enhanced from a washed-out, pale video). But no one has confirmed what it was. Not the chlorine that most people (including myself) guessed at the time... it's a mystery.

https://ria.ru/syria/20160407/1404681085.html

Locals and medics described a "yellow smoke with a strange smell" - no chlorine-bleach smell noted - and it caused "convulsions, spasms and vomiting." Uh-oh. They're said here to be chlorine signs, but they're more like nerve agent signs. And 23 dying, of course, is not normally a chlorine thing either. Jaish Al-Islam SEEMED to admit to this at the time, blaming a local commander for using prohoboted weapons without approval. It seemed like their answer to the CW charges, but later they said no, that was a coincidence. He used some other banned something. They never addressed this. They would say they didn't do it, have no idea who did. (ACLOS) 

One wonders, did the BBC even count this incident, or was it one of those they found too murky? As they explained to Adrian Kent:

We only included incidents where at least two of these sources had reported the incident. And even then, we ruled out a number of alleged attacks where we felt that there was insufficient or questionable evidence.

13 June, Housh al-Fara D.sub, Rebels rep. gas SAA soldiers SyrianObserver (few details)

2 August West Aleppo, old city area - some civilians. military, and rescuers all died, at least 13 and perhaps 20+ killed (review needed - Vanessa Beeley covered this, maybe I did work that in and just forget at the moment...) SAA soldiers gassed in breached tunnel, civilians, rescuers gassed with rockets after that - likely diff. chemicals in each phase - perhaps hydrogen cyanide encountered in the tunnel, rockets thought to just have chlorine …
Coincides with/was eclipsed by same-day CW report in Saraqeb, regime blamed for CL barrel-bomb attack, no deaths reported (arranged on time?)
ACLOS page and talk page covering both of the day's reported incidents

28 Sept. Hama, chlorine - Soldiers gassed, 18 casualties, no deaths yet (Al-Masdar report)

That was all I found for 2016. I didn't notice anything blamed on rebels in the covered first months of 2017. Just these 22 incidents, covering 60% of a span in which the BBC's report found zero.