Site 5

Ghouta Chemical Massacre:
Firing Directions
Part 7: Site 5
February 29, 2020

updates 8/16 and 10/23/2021

Here I previously collected notes on six geolocated impacts:
https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/08/ghouta-firing-directions-masterlist.html

This adds a seventh. After some confusion (post) it's clear LCC#2 is the same place as the OPCW's site 5, visited the afternoon of 29 August following sites 3 and 4 (rooftop and field  1, my lower left green dots). They're seen inside an empty room (vacant home, pres.) where what seems to be the north wall is heavily damaged after a volcano rocket crashed into a narrow balcony.

new map including this as impact #7 (green):

That spot was pre-located, as I saw in an old Bellingcat article, and I agree it's placed right. But they had it as the outside of the rooftop impact, site 3 (note it crashes through the coffee table - that's the rooftop scene). The area around that carefully-placed scene is much different. This is another spot wrongly wrapped around that impact.
https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/case-studies/2014/08/10/locating-the-rockets-used-during-the-august-21st-sarin-attacks-in-damascus/
Researcher Chis Kabusk may have been their source for gelocating the scene (he was working with Higgins at the time). His initial graphic (later works clarified further scenery matches so it's pretty indisputable):

* It's apparently the building at picture's edge there - inspectors are seen exiting north side, near corner, walking across a beam of light between 2 E-W buildings, then in the shade between two N-S ones. (Al-Jazeera video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S23nYqr1Jlg)

* add 8/16/2021: that made no sense for an early PM visit, where that lit wall would face east. This was a sloppy guess on my part, thinking it had to have more open space to the north. Impact site 5 is in fact the same building Chris Kabusk guessed FOR SITE 3, still placed there by Bellingcat et al. (see here). Maybe with this video that clarifies the whole walk from building exit to the vehicles. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euERns7BTaI

* being a balcony and the view are clear it's not street level -  most likely 2nd floor but could be higher - it matters ultimately, but not crucial for our purposes here.
* sunlight breaking on west edge of balcony - must be west side
* visit said to be around 1:30PM
* no rocket seen (apparently removed) but the damage is real, some scraps look like they might belong. they scoop some debris from the balcony.

* samples bagged up and logged outside. I don't know why everyone stares down so intently at the samples.

* some scorching on the wall must be a coincidence.

* Note Oct. 2021: a view from the balcony - no more elevated than it seemed - can't be the top floor or it'd be all sunlit, but maybe the floor right below that. And while red water tanks go on roofs, some roofs are just 2 meters above the ground. (8:45 in this video)

Damage Analysis and Estimated Impact Angle
The balcony railing has no damage I can see. It could have been missed in a steep descent. Rebar bend is unclear as to left o right angle, but the inner layer of light horizontal bars tend to snap well right of center, suggesting a force angling to the right rather than straight in. The way the rubble breaks and settles also, to me suggests more force to the right side. The vertical member on the far left bend out drastically, but otherwise the damage there is not widespread - this would be the sharp edge of the damage, with the direction of travel causing damage that "travels" further, though weakening along the way. Compare main impact (purple, suggested) vs. edges of concrete damage on the inside (yellow lines). Considering that inwards is one direction of travel, we can see it was inwards AND to the right much more than to the left.

The door's panels are nearly gone; the top one must be glass, all gone. The wooden panel has a sharp removal at the right side, some shielding on the left. The wall just to the right of the door is seriously coated with something dark, and small marks, if no major damage. The left wall has no such marks. This might be just from the door being right of center of the blast, but might also reflect on the impact angle.

Here, from the same spot, looking down opposite sides of a wall, we see the impacted room, another room the east that's also damaged:

glass door and exterior window broken, maybe both from the inside - cupboards on the east wall took some hits - some wood panels may have been on the counter already, but ample fresh debris was blown into this corner.

Estimated firing direction (tentative)
Considering the above, and a north wall orientation of 15 deg. CCW of due east-west, I'd say the angle to the firing position could be between 282 and 326 degrees. The upper end is not well-suggested, just a nearly straight-in angle to be fair (straight in would be 345). About 1/3 up that range, 296, seems like a good center estimate. It's not terribly exact, but 8 degrees either way should provide a fair range of 288 to 304.

...

Further images

Interior, photos:

sources
https://twitter.com/MichaKobs/status/892692233442529282
video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5XCDvxhDHE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRR1ftLt2RM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwGoWoA9q4o&index=8&list=PLO_vQ_Y4lJ5AEko1PAuDDRt2-m4_1Y82u
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biuts_KLjm4&list=PLO_vQ_Y4lJ5AEko1PAuDDRt2-m4_1Y82u&index=9
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n97uMNpvqtc
same https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwGoWoA9q4o&index=8&list=PLO_vQ_Y4lJ5AEko1PAuDDRt2-m4_1Y82u
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KYSCRBqa9A
same https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AcdS4FmRyQ&index=12&list=PLO_vQ_Y4lJ5AEko1PAuDDRt2-m4_1Y82u
driving from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcA_dnjCzWo
Majles Rif videos - all may be at one site, aside from four videos at a clinic, where they get blood samples and interview mostly young males lined up.
.
site 5 interior
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJolxZimF5s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n97uMNpvqtc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRR1ftLt2RM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5XCDvxhDHE

Sasa Wawa seems to refer to this site (but exact video is now removed), to have decided it was the north wall of that place that was hit, and that the direction of fire was, roughly, from the north. And he seems to have it on this street, where investigators are seen exiting: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KYSCRBqa9A

same https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AcdS4FmRyQ&index=12&list=PLO_vQ_Y4lJ5AEko1PAuDDRt2-m4_1Y82u

driving from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcA_dnjCzWo

visit timed at 1:35 pm (sampling said to run 1:10-1:50 pm,  samples taken from 1:35-1:46). So leaving would be closer to 1:50-2pm. Sun somewhat up the street from behind the camera, but more across it from the right, at around 2 pm, gives us an unusual street orientation - nearly all possible fits are in this small area in the north of Zamalka (Wikimapia)

8-28-2013 solar noon 12:35 -  1:35pm in Zamalka az 213 - el 62.46 (8-29, the actual day: about the same)

Whatever the street, a north wall on such a street should face about 5 degrees east of north. (is it northern wall? Unclear but seems likely from window views - lit surfaces nearby, but no direct light entering. If so, a west window also has no light coming in, but if we're 5º clockwise, that's no surprise - it's not much past noon.

nearby building suggests this was a steep descent angle

seems fairly perpendicular to the wall, which should face, at least partly, north

so firing direction would be ... or left or right angle? rebar could be studied from this video ...

other? As far as I know, only these seven have enough details to say ... HRW maps 12, largely wrong, and there could be that many or more -