January 7, 2023
incomplete - last edits Jan. 12
This post was delayed to good effect. I somehow lost my initial work the other day, but on the way re-assembling it, I did some review and wider searching on Telegram for quite a better view all around. Most recently I found an extra useful channel - https://t.me/militarydonetsk - that includes Russian military professionals doing forensic measurement of some impacts - some of the same impacts I've studied, with similar conclusions, and estimated trajectory mapped out - roughly agreeing with my own readings, and presumably overridng mine where they differ.
Add: with the latest automatic update, Telegram said "this channel can't be displayed because it violated local laws." But it did still display, and now that message doesn't appear is sporadic - so I'll use it while I can to establish the truth, even if that is or becomes illegal. Add Jan. 9: Similar violation notes appear with some posts on Eva Bartlett's channel and others. Comments under Patrick Lancaster posts already won't display on my phone, but still on the laptop last I checked. (It says because I used the Google play store - because my phone wouldn't let me install the app right from Telegram, and a 3rd party site stole & used my credit card info in trade for a file my phone wouldn't let me install either. So yeah - they're steering us to more controlled corralls here, or maybe just testing it.
Again, I have obsessive application of inexact but sound amateur ballistic analysis, as I've had for all December shelling in the city of Donetsk - see as needed parts 1-3, each covering a long 9-day "week" - week 1 (Nov. 29-Dec. 6) - week 2 (Dec. 7-15) - week 3 (16-24) and one earlier post briefly covering attacks from August 23 to Sept. 22 (7 total).
In this span, 25 December to 2 January, some days had very few and/or hard-to-place images, and some had nothing at all to analyze. Mainly the 30th and New Year's day had a lot of placeable impact images.
2 January
Nothing new to analyze. To offset that, some more recent cases are included, but at the bottom, so we can get to the numerous impacts seen the day before.
1 January
4:57 am https://t.me/TK_Union/24549
Kuibyshevsky district now. Strong fire after shelling
Excellent overview video of new damage in the Voroshilovsky district: https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62320.
Most strikes there came early, around 4 am. Mayor Kulemzin:
On the territory of Kievsky and Voroshilovsky districts at 4:00 from positions in the sky. n. Nevelskoye 25 MLRS missiles were fired. Eyewitnesses report destruction in the areas of the Campus, Covered Market, Pushkin Boulevard, Artyom, Postyshev, Gorky streets. There are direct hits on houses and large craters near them. Damaged cars, roofs, walls, gas pipeline, glazing (windows, etc.). The information is being specified.
"Consequences of shelling by Ukrainian militants of the Voroshilovsky district of Donetsk" https://t.me/dnronline/88923 (photos from the dark hours, various scenes) - 8:46 am, photos As a result of the shelling of the VFU in the Voroshilovsky district of Donetsk, 3 people were injured https://t.me/dnronline/88934
Eva K Bartlett documents some of the new shelling damage in Donetsk on New Year's Day
https://t.me/Reality_Theories/10911: Oddly, it begins on a rocket tube next to wall damage, but she has to explain the tube was moved here from a new impact somewhere nearby, and the locals told her that wall damage is from a previous attack - so no usable clues in those frames (for my main purpose of ballistic analysis). But the next place ...
1A) Artema st. 127
Above: from Bartlett video - Mayor Kulemzin has another view (marked up below), + other impacts, cleanup & repair - https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12618
This is a west-facing wall hit partly from the west and, judging the band of worst fragmentation damage that's perpendicular to the incoming tube, the other part is from the left = from the northwest. I don't know how to call an exact or even approximate angle, but I'll use a range (at right).
1B Monument to tankmen
Night photo of fresh damage - https://t.me/dnronline/88923 - day photo of repairs https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12618
The stature makes it Monument to tankmen - on Artema street a bit south of 1A - at 48.0053877,37.8035867
Splash pattern on the bricks shows a trajectory angling from crater to the tree's edge = from the northwest or west-northwest. The grazing, steep arc of frag marks in the bark - hark. That also says forward is about at the tree's left "edge" or just past it.
1C) Donetsk Technical School of Industrial Automation
https://t.me/donbassr/32541 video
https://t.me/TK_Union/24563 The building of the Donetsk Technical School of Industrial Automation named after Zakharchenko was damaged by the night shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62381 The building of the Donetsk Technical School of Industrial Automation named after Zakharchenko was damaged by the night shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Донецький технікум промислової автоматики - Google Maps
entrance seen is in the blue-and-white inner courtyard mostly enclosed by a square building - unclear which wall/direction - another unclear wall also seen, with signs of an impact to the roof (above a garage door), at an unclear angle. Some review before I have useful analysis and images.
1D) "Gaudi House"
On Bohdana Khmel'nyts'koho Ave, 98 - 48.0112634,37.8019851 - taller than the other area buildings (4-story) just north or south of Bohdana Khmel'nyts'koho Ave at - guessed first from damage closeup with a view to the southeast that seemed way higher than 4 stories, then verified with distance view from the south. - impact partly from the north.
https://t.me/dnronline/88923?single Consequences of shelling by Ukrainian militants of the Voroshilovsky district of Donetsk
https://t.me/donbassr/32668 The Ukrainian projectile did not spare the famous "Gaudi house" in the capital of the DPR.
Viktor, a resident of the architectural unique of Donetsk, told the channel Donbass decides about this.
“He flew to the very top of the building on New Year's Eve (https://t.me/donbassr/32529). Damaged the cladding, glass, roof. By some miracle, shells flew around this house (before). But this time, no luck,” he says.
According to him, the owners of the house left Donetsk back in 2014. “Who will now undertake its restoration is not entirely clear. I hope they don't leave it like this. His appearance can be treated differently. But, the fact that the house attracts attention is for sure, ”explains Viktor.
Correlating rooflines, blue trim
Confirming by view
Damage assessed - splash pattern north of impact = origin partly from the north - overall pattern unclear, logic of variable wall damage and how it all relates - not clear to me. Debris spreads into plastic roofs to the south and a bit to the east (could mean NW origin).
A splash pattern on tarpaper, covered with brick dust, isn't that clear, but it may stop around the line here, where brick dust is the heaviest (side-spray). That makes for a nice, westerly northwest origin. https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62361?single1E) Solovyanenko Theater, street
Google maps: "Donetsk State Academic Opera and Ballet Theater named after Anatoly Solovyanenko" - on Teatralʹnyy Prosp. - 48.0057041,37.8028585 - Google Maps street view
Street impact - probably a south-facing wall and an impact from the northwest. Will see if I can spot the exact wall someday. https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12618 It's a south-facing wall and an impact from the northwest, near the southwest corner. https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62359 video: "Ukrainian militants did not stop shelling Donetsk even on New Year's Eve. The consequences of the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were shown by Izvestia correspondent Dmitry Astrakhan." I didn't mark it here, but the wall damage near impact is in the lower middle of the left frame - see images below. NW or WNW origin.
That's 9 impacts, probably all from the morning attack with 25 MLRS rockets. That's over 1/3 of them placed. At right: all 9 mapped out. Note the overall area has a NW slant to it. That could be the approximate line of fire for all of them. D&C are both on a line at this angle. So are G & B, and maybe F & E. My readings tended to point a bit more WNW, but they're inexact. And then this shape could be a coincidence.
1J) 168 Chelyuskintsev st.
Donbass Decides, 1 Jan. 11:11 am https://t.me/donbassr/32539
A correspondent for the Donbass decides channel recorded how public utilities have been repairing the contact network on Chelyuskintsev Street, 168 since the morning.
The exact address helps a lot. That address is just north of the impact I placed at 48.0044622,37.8076916 - just south of impact 1C, on the same block. Google Maps street view misses this street, while Yandex maps gets it partly - this is on the curving part of Hurova street, looking west along the building's south end - shops hidden under the trees in satellite views, but must be there - street runs just north of northwest here - embedded tube points back at least 45 degrees to the street, or roughly north, probably a bit NNW. This may include the tube bending a bit from its original trajectory. We lack a splash pattern or other details to allow a better reading.
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62406 - by the tube seen, the surroundings and wood splinters, I think this is the fragment seen, along with the tail assembly minus some of its detachable fins. The same is visible above, slumped atop the small rubble pile ahead of the tube. The photo label says this is a Slovakian-made rocket they abbreviate JROF-M. The same appears with a few other attack sites - in all cases where I've seen the weapon specified.
Add 1/11: Eva Bartlett video, 5 Jan. but posted later https://t.me/Reality_Theories/10986
Impact 1J area seen the other way, little shops clarified. I'll skip the red circle. Can you place the impact? She starts at some damaged buildings I had seen here https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62381 but couldn't place. They're just across the street to the south-southeast - 2 shops with broken windows, and one to the north looking unharmed. that favors an approach from the north or maybe northwest.
0:37 facing south is where the tall glassy building is, with the sign for children's something. It's a newer building (an empty lot in 2011 street view). The windows initially look intact (see below) but visibly punctured all over, Later, it seems a lot of panes are missing, and not even boarded up? I guess no one lives there, and the damaged glass won't hold up if hit again, which seems likely. Back to the damage; Most panes look sort of foggy (compare to the bottom ones). You can see in spots that's from widespread fracturing beneath a protective coating. I'm not sure of all the spots the Russian investigators pre-circled in red, but I see most of them here and some others, marked orange. Foggy panes suggest impacts as well, just too small to see.IF this connects to it, it's the same north trajectory suggested by the tube position. That would mean a second firing position for these rockets. Neither the twisted final angle nor the arc of VISIBLE marks are clear enough - even in tandem - to force that conclusion. But pushing it close: the apparent lack of marks on the inner edge of that recessed area.
2 white blobs could be something inside. Another seemed worth labeling with a question mark. Any other impact from the NW would probably mark this surface as well. So if it's not marked, these fragments came from the north, probably from impact 1J, which rocket came from the north. And finally, the totally un-damaged lower area - except at the very edge. Something else took the frags first. The view above shows it would be those little shops. A friggin' shadow like this might allow a pretty exact measure of just how north this was. Will have to come back to that after some set-up. So far it looks like from the Bakhmut-Soledar direction, maybe on the Russian side or not. Some precision is called for.
Add 1/12: A decent mapping of the relevant buildings and damage - the magenta "shadow" is complicated - it SEEMS some smaller shops to the south should cast it, and higher up, but the map angle makes no sense, and it's all on an upslope - just suspend that idea, but here's how it maps best. And as for the orange lines, the apparent arc is above far from gospel. I try another possible highest point and trace it back as an alternate. Other similar angles are also possible, but I trace back just these 2. From the crater at 1J, it's 67km to Bakhmut, which only popped out for the famous name and status I know - checking JROF-M max. range: 40.2 km at sea level (COMPANY pdf https://www.msmholding.sk/content/msm-tech-listy-122mm-jrof-grad-1.pdf ). It should be a bit longer above sea level, but I don't think Donetsk is high enough it matters much. Maybe 41km? Comparing with an ISW map of the situation at the end of Dec. 31 shows the nearest Ukrainian-held area on a line such as this is by Toretsk, just about 40km out on the alt. line, about 42km on the apparent line. I bet that's roughly where this rocket was launched from.
1K) curb on Artema st.
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62400
1 January, Others:
others https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62391
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62381
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62371
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62361
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62309
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/62314 Consequences of arrival at the 55th quarter, building 2
...
31 December
(not 31 January - thanks, Collapse Into Now)
https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12582
The consequences of the shelling of the village of mine 7 of the Petrovsky district.
(not placed)...
30 December
30A) Hotel Victoria
5+ impacts evident - 6 HIMARS reported - a high-profile target of Ukraine reportedly killed. Ukraine doesn't deny the attack, and their supporters tend to cheer it, even as they deny all these other attacks.
https://t.me/TK_Union/24478
On December 30, 2022, as a result of artillery shelling by the armed formations of Ukraine in Donetsk, Deputy Head of the Control and Investigation Department of the Military Investigation Department of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation for the Joint Grouping of Troops (Forces), Lieutenant Colonel of Justice Evgeny Alexandrovich Rybakov, died while on duty.
He may have been there to investigate previous criminal shelling. Now the investigator is dead, they'll need a new investigator to replace him and to investigate his killing (not that it's a hard case to solve), and to avoid assassination in the course of doing his job.
It's unclear how many others killed or seriously injured. Doesn't this hotel maybe have other and civilian guests, and maybe some staff? Six HIMARS rockets were credited with killing ~90 Russian soldiers in Makeevka in early January. But at hotel Victoria, about that many just killed one high-profile Russian? Not likely.
5 impact spots AA, AB, AC, AD, AE - AE is a crater in the ground near a north face (cannot come from much north of west)
Tonight Ukrainian fascists shelled Donetsk. At 02:34 from Konstantinovka they fired 6 rockets from a multiple launch rocket system at civilians.
8:41 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12558
Additional information has been received about damage caused by the shelling of the VFU.
💣 As a result of the shelling of the Kievsky district from the M142 "Himars" MLRS, damage to the infrastructure of the Victoria hotel complex was recorded.
In the Voroshilovsky district, 2 multi-apartment residential buildings on Mira Ave. were damaged.
https://t.me/TK_Union/24469 - video beneath 1AA
Another video https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61811 #AGS_On_the_line_of-fire Consequences of the shelling of the center of Donetsk. Hotel "Victoria". Mat 18+
30B) Artema unclear, NW?
30C) 23 Myru Street
The 6th HIMARS rocket apparently missed the hotel and hit near a 5-story apartment block on Myru avenue, causing light damage there. There are five such buildings just south of the hotel, numbered 21-29 on Google Maps. The one that should be 23 (but like 25 not labeled) is the longest among them. The number 23 is spray-painted on the damaged building. Whichever it is, they all face NNE. Assuming this isn't the opposite side... The wall isn't directly hit, and in fact the impact point isn't shown. It could just be damage from impact 30AE across the street, but that's some distance.
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61885
Fixation of the consequences of the shelling of the Voroshilovsky and Kievsky districts of Donetsk on December 30, 2022
❗️Military experts of the DPR JCCC confirmed the shelling of the Voroshilovsky and Kievsky districts, and also specified the direction of firing and the weapons used.
The enemy fired from their positions located in the area of the settlement. Krasnoarmeysk, using MLRS M-142 HIMARS
30 January other
5:09 am https://t.me/dnronline/88806
Consequences of shelling by Ukrainian militants of the Voroshilovsky district of Donetsk
1:56 https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61871
Consequences of the shelling of the 18th party congress around 13:00. People were not hurt. The enemy is constantly shelling, think about the safest option for celebrating the New Year!
8:41 am https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61815
Consequences of shelling by Ukrainian militants of the Voroshilovsky district of Donetsk Photo: DNR Online
29 December
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61695
Fixation of the consequences of the shelling of the Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk on December 28, 2022
❗️Military experts of the DPR JCCC confirmed the shelling of the Kuibyshev region with the use of MLRS, and also specified the direction of fire and the weapons used.
The enemy fired from the MLRS from their positions located in the area of the settlement. Novoselovka Pervaya, using JROF-M high-explosive missiles with an increased range of up to 40.2 km. range and increased strike force, produced in Slovakia and transferred to 🇺🇦 countries that are part of the NATO bloc.
87 Kuibyshevsky street = Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast - Google Maps - label in the street, no matching building in view - maybe nestled off the street in the area to the left of the car dealership. Corners unclear.
Less Clear others included in the above, and also:
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61674
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61655
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61715
https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12531
https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12538
https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12544
28 December
more photoshttps://t.me/militarydonetsk/61705 (includes unplaced imapct at right)
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61715
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61725
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61573
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61555
video
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61582
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61581
https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12499
27 December
Nothing.
26 December
https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61307 Consequences of shelling by Ukrainian militants of the Petrovsky district of Donetsk
25 December
Nothing.
Others:
in recent days, even past the 2nd
seen on the 4th, Petrovsky school no. 16 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12703
Consequences of the shelling of the Petrovsky district. The village of mine 7, school number 116.
47.9473354,37.5662462? = school no. 116 on Yandex
impact from the SW
looks different from earlier? attacked already on March 5 - re-modeled? Wrong place? Will try and review. https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/3542
Petrovsky apartment
https://t.me/donbassr/32660
https://t.me/donbassr/32656
https://t.me/donbassr/32655
https://t.me/donbassr/32654
https://t.me/donbassr/32652
https://t.me/Reality_Theories/10928
Jan 4 https://t.me/donbassr/32661
https://t.me/donbassr/32656
video: https://t.me/chp_donetskv/40597
High-quality photo: https://t.me/dnronline/88992?single
Not geolocated, but the mossy nature of everything suggests this is a north-facing wall, so the shall came partly from the north. The damage is clear in arrival partly from the left, so probably a NW origin.
I counted 4 arrivals (https://t.me/donbassr/32656), it was terrible.
A resident of the Petrovsky district (https://t.me/donbassr/32655) of Donetsk Vladimir eliminates the consequences of shelling. Windows were broken in his apartment.
“We were at home, resting. Yes, it's still shaking, I can't get over it. The poor wife is also frightened. Every day something arrives (https://t.me/donbassr/32654). We do not have peace of mind,” Vladimir told the Donbass decides channel.
photos: damaged house in Kirovsky district
https://t.me/dnronline/88980
https://t.me/Reality_Theories/10930
https://t.me/dnronline/88980
1/5 https://t.me/Reality_Theories/10942
Two Donetsk houses badly damaged (pretty well destroyed) by Ukranian shelling yesterday in the Kuibyshevsky district. Two women injured in the shelling.
1/7 Petrovsky https://t.me/dnronline/89092
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