Posted December 17 (rough, incomplete)
last updates (daily) 21 December
later update3 Jan. 1, 2023
previous post - Monitor on Massacre Marketing: A December Week of "Russians Shelling Themselves" in Donetsk (libyancivilwar.blogspot.com) - covered just over a week from late November up to December 7 6 - currently 16 located impacts, at least 5 or 6 deaths between them, According to my non-expert but sound ballistic analysis from the available imagery, one either came from the southeast (the whole way or just at the end after a U-turn) OR punched clear through a building without causing obvious huge damage or visible fires. At least 10 came from the northwest, like that one MIGHT have. The remaining 5 are less clear but seem to be hit from the north generally, or have inadequate views to say anything.
December 15 was said to be the heaviest shelling central Donetsk had seen since the early days in 2014. It makes the Western news this time. That's not a first, but it's rare. And to be fair, they have a lot of stories, true and otherwise, they need to cover, and not just in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces carried out the biggest attack on the occupied Donetsk region of the country since 2014 on Thursday, according to a Russian-installed official. ... “At exactly 7 a.m. the [Ukrainians] subjected the center of Donetsk to the most massive strike since 2014,” Moscow-appointed mayor, Aleksey Kulemzin, posted on Telegram.
“Forty rockets from BM-21 'Grad' MLRS were fired at civilians in our city,” he said, adding that a key intersection in Donetsk city center had come under fire. Kulemzin shared photographs on Telegram of damage to residential and commercial buildings and a cathedral. There have been no immediate reports of casualties, according to Russian state media.
"CNN cannot independently confirm Kulemzin’s claims."
RT report, likely banned wherever you are because freedom isn't freedom, +video that CAN verify some if it (see below): https://www.rt.com/russia/568270-donetsk-worst-strike-ukraine/
Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil @ivan_8848
“The (N🇺🇦s) are about to lose their positions” — a resident of Donetsk talks about the increased shelling of the city.
https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1603263541124923398
What I'm looking at - mostly Twitter posts for now - sorted by date, in reverse order, starting with the ferocious assault of the 15th. At just two days on, that's fairly well news as I post this decent start at an overview that's heavy on covering that.
15 December
shelling at night Telegram: Contact @warhistoryalconafter
https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1603271776653307905
https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1603340179670016001
photos, general: https://t.me/gixie_beauty/353
https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1603345906765803521
apt bldg(s) https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11983
👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeAOfTIpOf8
Impacts
15A) Forum Mall
(flipped) https://twitter.com/PLnewstoday/status/1603288403701006337
blurry view and horizontally flipped, but even not realizing that, with a lucky break, I located the scene just from this at the Forum Mall, south end, at 48.0125353,37.8030925 - https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1603399513578049536
Views: https://twitter.com/senguptacanada/status/1603685380850700288 - https://t.me/gixie_beauty/353 - https://twitter.com/TamrikoT/status/1603249455913963520
https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1603714630601551872 - https://twitter.com/ThinkDeeper71/status/1603330236912803840 - https://twitter.com/AdamekMiroslav/status/1603371366060810242 - https://twitter.com/avia_pro/status/1603259308430561281 - https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1603342269976875009
What's present at last satellite view (10/2021) is just the green box with a roofed area here rising above the general roof). From that, what's missing now and what's scattered around, it seems likely a new, slightly lower roofed area was added to the south and then blown up between the views. Otherwise, a good bit was scooped out of the top floor. It spreads out in 3 directions (SW, S, SE), which will equate to left, right, and forward = the projectile came partly from the north. The heavier debris spreads more to the southeast. That and damage to adjacent building almost due west of the impact suggest the other part of the trajectory is from the west. North + west = northwest.
RIA video (https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1603342269976875009) shows the neighboring building and possible target might be the national technical university, which I hear is in the area and which I hear was hit, and like those letters on the plaque seem to say. The trajectory I suspect put the mall's impacted roof on a line pretty much straight to this plaque inside that curved main entry area, maybe hitting short of its target.
15B) Near the Church: https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1603421719385231361
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15C) Church dome impacted
views: https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1603275715025043456 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zm16HYRqypI
https://twitter.com/TamrikoT/status/1603437000928989184
https://twitter.com/ChristineJameis/status/1603306748277886981
Donetsk shelling begins simultaneously with start of morning service in Transfiguration Cathedral, whose dome pierced through by Ukrainian shell
https://twitter.com/Inkie09634122/status/1603415310085881856
The first view clarified this was the north-facing side of the dome that was hit, by the elongated damage, from an angle either NE or NW.
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Damn.
15D) burning apartment tower
located by other first at 48.0151283,37.8175838 -
https://twitter.com/ek_jerry/status/1603720454887333890
https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11975
claimed from the east based on a guy (Andrew Perpetua) or maybe some Russian (?) drawing some arrows on some upside-down maps, claiming the Russians had claimed something, and this all proved something about this all the 39 other impacts, like the Russians fired them all from the east.
Some smaller-brained "fella" saw "beauty" in this work. I haven't received clarification as to the methodology involved.
https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1603734246740594688 - https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1604168526272811008
For my part: these views of the east-facing side show no sign of impact from the east.
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Neither does the west side, seen later in the morning, show signs of impact from the west.
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Apparently, the roof was hit in some manner that, as far as I know, went totally unseen. Hit from the northwest is a best guess by precedent, but from the visuals, I can't see daring an arrow any direction on any map, even one that's right-side-up. If someone else did, it probably has no bearing on the physical facts.
15E) shopping center
views: https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1603268328344068096 - https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1603356110634860546
Why does Flash News want to show this one?
Location: 48.0116706,37.806255 - just NW of central market, just NE of the stricken church (visible here)
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There is no clear damage to shops on the south side of the street, but plenty of broken windows. That happens in a certain radius, generally, in all directions. A remnant of rocket tube (or maybe 2 of them?) - a little trench rug in the pavement with little to no splash pattern evident, in the street near the north curb - trench runs NW-SE - no clear splash or side-spray from fragments at either end - but as shown below, a POSSIBLE faint pattern suggests SOUTHEAST - frag marks visible high up on gray booth and building to the north, but very very few on the booth. Intact windows straight ahead (or behind) doesn't fit well with a blast here at all, from either direction. I admit this scene has me confused at the moment, but if that all fits together, it would suggest an impact from the southeast. However, it's not clear how it all relates. The punctures on the booth's east face (green box here) at least cannot relate to the shell that dug the trench. There must another shell to explain that.
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I'm not sure how another of the 3 shells said to impact here might cause this damage - high on a south-facing wall suggests a munition partly from the south, or maybe another angle, depending on the full pattern and any additional craters. More study needed.
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15F) Across from Fish House
views:
top right: https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1603345906765803521
View used here: Telegram: Contact @gixie_beauty
found by Google Maps labels for "Fish House" at 48.0111927,37.7993796 - the scene looks different from 2011, but same enough I'm sure this is it. Comparison at right.
A clear Splash pattern with side-spray points back to the northwest, just like the embedded tube does. Possible target is the building just SE of here. Not sure what it is, possibly educational - it's just off Universyetska street, and in 2011 a banner said it housed a driving school among other unclear things.
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15G) By a mini salon (ПАРИКМАХЕРСКАЯ = salon )
https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1603268941479956480
48.0087314,37.8077396 - window damage north side, some debris to the west, into the little park, where the crater is - embedded tube folder forward (and probably to one side), coming out pointing about due south = came from the north + (prob. west). Light window damage, probably more invisible here, on the building to the south. Its style matches a building hit on the 9th, but that's probably one of the same style a couple blocks to the east. Changed style since 2011 street view.
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15H) by a statue (Monument to Taras Shevchenko)
48.0090718,37.8037386
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This view is quite unclear as to direction - the crater is unclear and the debris is spread such that it seems someone swept it all up on top of the crater. Originally, a best guess is that it spread to the southeast. But so far a guess based on precedent is all I have.
15I) Myru street on the water (crucial land bridge) - large crater passed round by a jogger right on the street's shoulder - no evident damage to the actual street - 48.0162156,37.8259309 - earth displacement not terribly clear, but hit south of the street, seems to spread south away, towards the water. So partly from north https://twitter.com/SororInimicorum/status/1603576523931410433
15J) School no. 2 / Church Administration
Telegram: Contact @kulemzin_donetsk - thanks "Collapse Into Now" for the tip.
Impact just shy of back side of school, west facing side, just south of the church - direction not terribly clear - hard to say where the crater is vs. displaced soil.
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15K) University parking lot
https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11994
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Same scene later: https://twitter.com/Spriter0000/status/1603307449229918208
Other views from a video (link f/c)
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It seems one car was impacted, punched through, flipped over and, with some other less damaged cars, set ablaze. So far, I can't say much about what direction it came from, except of course based on some solid precedent. So I'll suggest this car was flipped over to the side of the rocket's trajectory to the southeast FROM the northwest.
15L) near Shevchenko memorial
50m east of impact H - impact with bricks knocked down a trellis, punched a hole, left a partial splash pattern showing arrival from the northwest. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeAOfTIpOf8
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15M) Near Central Church
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeAOfTIpOf8
b.png)
15N) technical university SW (near entrance) 48.0123039,37.8036326
11:50 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeAOfTIpOf8
seen after fill-in of the crater with some bigger debris - earlier view before fill-in (lower right - former entry 15BB, tree near forum?) https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11968 - the view details collapse right together into the same scene.
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As I read this crater, it's wide and shallow because the detonation was higher than usual, when the shell hit a tree, leaving just this partial trunk. The sharper edge away from the camera (south of center) should be the back side, where frags are angled down into the ground. The way they shredded a lower tree (green diamond), as the ground digging was interrupted there, supports this. The greater spread of soil towards the camera (north), even after a start at fill-in and cleanup, says the same thing. This shell came partly from the south. The east-west aspect isn't visually clear, but most likely it's the same SW evident with the next entry.
15O) technical university NW (behind Forum) 48.0128817,37.8035414
12:30 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeAOfTIpOf8
This one is unusual: Lancaster walks us to another impact at the same long building, way at its north end behind the Forum mall. This hit right at the base of the west-facing wall, so it cannot have come from the eastern half of the compass.
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Patrick decides it came from the north, noting a broken tree limb there. But this can be explained just as well by high-forward fragments of a shell from the south. And unusually, the band of worst damage slopes up to the left from the crater. This suggests an origin partly from the south. Other clues are ambiguous: other frag marks on walls are almost absent. Heavy debris seems to spread a bit more to the north while light stuff maybe to the south, but neither is very clear.
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It threw me for a loop after seeing so much pure and probably northwest. But I have to call what I thought was a "Russian" direction. Specifically, I'd say it's not from due south, but a southwest with probably more south than west. That's just visually.
This is a more ambiguous direction, including DPR/Russian-held areas due south and SSW, but at due SW, around 25-30 km out and past, is still Ukrainian-held. I'm not the situation-map guy, but this is cropped from a Rybar map of Dec. 11. Novomykhailivka is a best fit, 28km out at 330 degrees (a bit more west than south). The same angle traced further out could also fit, and perhaps more westerly ones. But southerly looked better, even as it gets extra front line. But that has its own appeal; the area just south of Novomykhailivka (and just that area, to map's edge) looks contested = occupied by desperate people, and it might fit better with the damage pattern we see.
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Or maybe this one impact proves the Russians shelled themselves from one of their southern areas, and just had all the other shells U-turn at the end to come in from the NW?
15P) Student Hospital no. 4 17:46 outside, 20:49 inside https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeAOfTIpOf8
Found by Google Maps labels and matching photo. Damage here is to a west facing wall, so again the origin has to be partly from the west. A diagonal like this damage has can fit with an impact from the left=south, and it seems we just saw one of those, based on such a line (15O). But it could also be an accident of how the wall came apart when it was hit at the top first (pink curve). Some missing panels above the entry (gold box) lines up nicely with side-spray from a NW-origin impact. I traced it that way before realizing southwest is a thing ... so take this as it come in on the gold line or the white line or similar. Ukrainian forces can be found in either direction, but the southern ones is more ambiguous.
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15Q) & 15R) heating plant, exterior - 48.0139218,37.8042341 - 14:50 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeAOfTIpOf8 - heating plant, building damaged - 16:16, 17:10 in same video.
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15S) SW of heating plant 13:05 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeAOfTIpOf8
near south end of heating plant - not confident about the debris spread. More to the east, maybe more to the northeast? Might be another impact from the SW.
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15T) Apartment building (probable location)
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Nursery garden, a clinic, a shopping center, and 8 residential buildings damaged due to the shelling.
https://twitter.com/ChristineJameis/status/1603306661162192898 -
Rescuers remove a woman from the rubble in Donetsk.
One of the rockets fired by the 🇺🇦Nazis in Donetsk hit the top floor of a house on Naberezhnaya Street. There was a woman in the apartment at the time.
https://twitter.com/TamrikoT/status/1603435797943926791
Maybe at 117 Naberezhnaya Street - views not clear, but might be the only possible fit on the whole street for building style - 48.00431,37.8134123 - east-facing wall seen, roof impact partly from the west, blowing out this side and spreading debris.
Interestingly, the usual WNW trajectory, extended past this roof, would have hit the street that cross the river, just across the water in Kalininsky district. The next entry also has an impact short of hitting the next bridge north, similarly just one the other side. And the 3rd of 3 bridges connecting the districts WAS hit, just on this side, luckily causing little or no damage to the street. (see 15I) (pics forthcoming)
15U) Football field https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12003 - 48.0109059,37.8198158 - new football field at school no. 5, impacted from WNW, around 295 degrees, probably south of Pervomaiske. see for now https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1605186798405419009
15V) near Donbass Arena - "The consequences of the morning shelling in the Park of Culture and Leisure in Donetsk (Kyivski district)." https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12034
approximately at 48.0181115,37.8120803 - pics and analysis f/c
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coordinates: 48.0123337,37.8027679, just SW of the university - Quite minor damage - as explained below, this is a south-facing wall hit. Any left or right angle is unclear, but the shell hit this wall directly, so it came partly from the south.
Finding the spot: 90-degree angled buildings/wings, with a short wing like this on the left, and a somewhat longer one on the right, a structure nestled into the juncture (light blue), with a big tree overhanging it, and a small 45-degree section of the roof above that (bright green). The latter 2 seemed pretty unique, and were mainly what I looked for. Other clues: a structure at the end of the short wing (yellow), something protruding at the corner (dark green), a unique building ahead with columns, a peaked facade (dark blue).
The ahead building at left is sunlit on 2 sides that make sense (first looked assuming PM, West and south faces lit, and impact into another west face, mostly in shadow). But the first clearly matching roof juncture I found with a 45 wedge had a different angle - the impacted wall would face south. The sun would be early morning, like most views. And checking Google Earth satellite views from different angles, I see there's a structure nestled below that, usually covered by a big tree, and the next building north looks just like the one seen by the impact.
I didn't have to look for any other matching roofs. This is it. Google Maps labels this building, this wing specifically, as Verdansk bed & breakfast. Impacted partly from the south. Here with other area impacts analyzed above as from the NW or WNW (A), unclear south (N) and definite southwest (O). I'm guessing there are 2 directions this area was attacked from and no more. Most logically, all unclear south came from the southwest, unless evidence contradicts that.
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Unplaced Others
15X) Apartment building 1:00 here https://twitter.com/AdamekMiroslav/status/1603371366060810242
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15Y) punch into roof ... lower right here: https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1603345906765803521
15Z) outdoor crater, interior with collapsed slabs (see 15R)
https://twitter.com/LinevichD/status/1603306230281273345
possible collapse with 15S? A techincal university campus could merit the barbed wire to keep out theives of expensive equipment. There is some kind of post-like shape that size very near the edge of each crater, and checking this as the view south from Lancaster's spot matches pretty well on everything but maybe that booth. Maybe it just hides?
15AA) https://twitter.com/LinevichD/status/1603306050303791105
15BB) May be the 16th ... Myru Avenue https://twitter.com/V_Nika282/status/1604022525234745344
Total 15 December noted impact/areas: 28 I think. More perhaps f/c.
Fill-in on that and the rest will be incomplete and will take a while. If you're curious, check back.in, say, a week. and I might have some dates mixed-up, and some I missed just from what I can see on Twitter. I hope to figure out Telegram soon to find more of what's available. Also trying some crowd-sourcing this time... https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1604153545858912256
14 December
14A) playground
https://twitter.com/DavidRusskian/status/1603021873012506639
13 Dec.
https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1602647775438684162
12 Dec.
Residential Donetsk under Ukrainian shelling, video
https://t.me/ukraina_ru/121530
Ukraine kept shelling the city well into the night
https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1602250846107889664
Ukrainian troops shelled Kalinin hospital in Donetsk, roof of one of the buildings was damaged as a result of a direct hit by a Grad BM21 rocket
Video:
https://t.me/ukraina_ru/121497
https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1602246563925217281
Dec 13 reported: Tatiana Ryzhova, a conductor of Donbass Song and Dance Ensemble and a mother of two children, the youngest of whom is only 6 years old, was among the dead citizens of Donetsk, killed yesterday by Ukrainian shelling .
https://t.me/vityzeva/75064
https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1602646302277263361
11 December
night shelling, fires https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1602259582411165696
... https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1602240564111343617
https://twitter.com/ReportWar1/status/1601849221212168192
11 Dec, Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk National Technical University building
https://t.me/TK_Union/23633
post describes it as "5-й корпус ДонНТУ" - on Google Maps, that brings me to 48.0137189,37.8028507 - it has a few different parts, and nearby buildings might factor is. With just some windows visible, I can't say which wall of what was hit. But the frag marks angle up to the right, so the shell came in from the left.
https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1602245270930042881
Mayak Market https://twitter.com/301military/status/1601927278182678533
https://twitter.com/Sae5115/status/1602055571187834883
Mayak Market https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1603670276390064128
https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11858
https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11808
https://t.me/dnronline/87480
hosp https://t.me/dnronline/87496
https://t.me/dnronline/87499
10 December
10A) Central Market https://twitter.com/Mastersepar_ZOV/status/1601578008086999040
https://twitter.com/avia_pro/status/1601584864612225024
https://twitter.com/Marianna9110/status/1601844886713556992
1 is covered below as the 9th, 1 at central market area, north side, apparently from the NNE, but that may be from interior defelction, etc.
https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1601959597841219586
3 southern impacts geolocated right away - one clear NW, one suggested, one unclear
https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1602115547235512320
https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1602170732259446784
10B) new market stalls - from NW
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10C) planetarium - probable NW
10D) bus station - unclear
Dec 9/10 burned down house https://twitter.com/RueDaungier/status/1601582588035887104
https://twitter.com/KBoz3/status/1601302519304826880
https://twitter.com/RuptlyNews/status/1601569923771211777
Dec 9
The UА army shelled the center of Donetsk from MLRS. Reports of arrivals on civil high-rise buildings and in the area of the Government building.
https://twitter.com/DrazaM33/status/1601191171149434880
In Donetsk, hitting the building of the University of Economics and Trade in the Studgorodok area (central Voroshilovsky district).
https://twitter.com/Spriter0000/status/1601181616663318528
university https://twitter.com/PLnewstoday/status/1601194671371272192
https://t.me/wargonzo/9685 About 10 missiles of the RSO "Grad"... in the student town. The hits are very large, the militants are covered in the squares.
geoloc https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1602245144002318336
133ж Artema st. 48.0137492,37.8030907 - north end of Forum Mall, and part of or next to a National Technical University.
Geoconfirmed agreed ...
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Impact unclear, but pres. into the lower beige building, with no entry seen in the walls here or (in another view f/c) into its roof, I gess it used an existing hole and flew right in that busted out window. That would have to be partly from the west. We can't say much more for the rest of that angle, but north is a good guess.
Apparently related/nearby: video posted later: https://twitter.com/danielmkovalik/status/1601190079627948032/video/1
https://twitter.com/ka_hmel/status/1601193628533420039
Also posted Dec. 9 along with the above strike https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1601280831741657089
Apartment building - night video after the attack https://twitter.com/TamrikoT/status/1601293749019025410
later footage of the damage https://twitter.com/Mastersepar_ZOV/status/1601578008086999040
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This is likely one of the seven new buildings just east of 48.0089626,37.8117908 - 2011 street view has them looking much different, but GE shows, from at least 2018 (and why no views before?) about like this. A single building with the same changed style was damaged in the December 15 attack (see 15G) and shows the facade style clearly, Serious damage at the roofline and top floor - impact angle best guess: this is on the south side facing north, impact from across the street and from the right, with debris in the street being side-spray. That's northwest, which is why that's my best guess. Otherwise, this is a south-facing south and was strangely hit from the southeast.
Apartment building directly impacted, truck on fire -https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1601307333648211968
sports complex https://twitter.com/PLnewstoday/status/1601216971357704192
hotel Druzhba https://twitter.com/Spriter0000/status/1601187693597450240
https://twitter.com/Bakhmut_Holds/status/1601205335452418048
(2) Springprincess #IStandWithRussia🇷🇺 on Twitter
More in Telegram posts: https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11737 - https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11756 - https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11752 - https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11745 - https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11710 - https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11702 - https://t.me/dnronline/87400
Dec. 8
https://t.me/dnronline/87301
"The consequences of shelling by Ukrainian militants of the Kyiv region of Donetsk, as a result of which a man died." Blurred body, damage shgown - cannot be placed
Somehow I have nothing else. Can I just leave this one blank? I will for now.
Dec 7 attacks (pending)
Overnight Dec. 6/7 https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1600274363751796736
856 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11608
The consequences of the night shelling of the Voroshilovsky district. Corps of Donetsk National University.
9:00 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11618 damage photos
The consequences of the night shelling of the Voroshilovsky district. Universitetskaya and Shchorsa streets.
A photo shows Филологический факультет = Faculty of Philology which is at 24 Universytets'ka St 48.0055463,37.7990391 - not clear if it was even damaged or just a landmark. Quite nearby are 3 impacts I've placed.
7A) 39 Universytets'ka St 48.0076245,37.7989833 - in front of this west-facing wall, a big crater with soil spread more to the southeast = hit from NW.
7B) 37 Universytets'ka St 48.0076245,37.7989833 - frag marks angle up to the right on a west-facing wall = from the NW.
7C) 25 Shchorsa St - 48.0070722,37.7958386 - another west-facing wall - splash pattern (roughed-up bricks at bottom and left) points to the SE-NW.
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