OPCW Douma Report S/1731, 2019

Douma Chemical Massacre: OPCW Douma Report S/1731, 2019
March 2-?, 2019
(rough, incomplete)

last update: March 12
(release locations?)

I really have been incredibly flaky, never even finishing my last lame post before this hit … I've been doing other things, saving my energy, waiting for something - maybe this? The long-awaited release of OPCW fact-finding mission (FFM) report on the Douma chemical attacks nearly a year ago now:

S/1731/2019 

1 March 2019

REPORT OF THE FACT-FINDING MISSION REGARDING THE INCIDENT

OF ALLEGED USE OF TOXIC CHEMICALS AS A WEAPON

IN DOUMA, SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC, ON 7 APRIL 2018

https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2019/03/s-1731-2019%28e%29.pdf 

Since I'm still being flaky or transtioning, all I have to do now is start this post. I will be reviewing the report over the weekend, and we'll see what I put together in the space below. A few points I'll want to address, some briefly addressed already and growing into sections:

Chemical Issues
No Sarin at Mass-Death Site
2.7 "No organophosphorous nerve agents, their degradation products or synthesis impurities were detected either in environmental samples prioritised for analysis or in plasma samples from alleged casualties."

I think this is technically wrong, unless something changed. The commercial pesticide malation was found on a headscarf, presumably from a female fatality, reportedly found in the basement of location 2 (this is still included; see annex 5, sample code FFM49-18SDS07 ). This can be used to kill headlice, when that's done - here, rather close to a chemical death, that malathion could perhaps explain, in a gas chamber scenario. I hear there's a toxicity issue where it usually just kills insects, but if it can make people sick, it could kill them eventually, in a gas chamber if not on open release. I wouldn't guess Malathion as the killer here, but I'm not confident that scarf finding is a coincidence.

Anyway, the point stands that chlorine alone would not cause dozens to drop dead. (see below)

Dual Chemical Properties: Was There Sarin?
Previously it's seemed there was no open chemical release, based on widespread agreement by many locals who swear they smelled nothing, and inconsistent stories from some who did claim a smell. Putting this aside, perhaps there was a limited release in a small area ... if so, what the FFM heard could be helpful. The FFM seem to have heard about two different chemicals released in the open. Judging by reported smell, color, and immediate symptoms, it comes down into two very familiar types.

"8.59 The smell was described as being similar to cleaning products containing chlorine and local commercial brands, such as “Clor” and “Flash”, were mentioned. They added that the odour was significantly stronger, more pungent and acidic than the cleaning products. Other witnesses described a strong unpleasant smell that was not similar to chlorine and caused shortness of breath, fatigue and blurred vision. The smell of chlorine was also mentioned to be present at Point One around the same time."

No one describes both smells combined. If this was all in real space, it was in 2 different spaces. As for the one unlike chlorine, they say it was unpleasant and strong. This isn't very specific, but is consistent with the smell of impure sarin and/or the foul irritant w/nerve agent properties (FINAP - I just invented that). I put it like that because it's a bit confusing - see as covered here. The smell of that is foul, strange or hard to place, like rotting bodies, and various other guesses (burning nylon, sulfur, garlic, rotten eggs...)

"8.60 Witnesses recounted that, as soon as they perceived the odour, they developed difficulty breathing, eye irritation, severe coughing, nausea, vomiting, weakness, visual impairment, and excess salivation."

This is upon smelling which chemical? Irritant properties and resultant breathing problems could be from either (chlorine by its own action, the other due to irritant impurities). That covers the first three symptoms as too general to clarify. The next five all point more clearly to nerve agents like sarin; vision goes blurry or dark (but external miosis is usually noted), the SLUDGE syndrome causes extra saliva, actual nausea and vomiting (neither of which comes from chlorine - occasional reflexive vomiting, but not nausea), and weakness / fatigue, along with a bad headache, are common on minor sarin exposure. If these reports are true, it's an issue to note.

"8.61 Some witnesses reported seeing a yellow to green cloud or smoke, and one witness described it as a green colour in the atmosphere. ...

Yellow to green is a broad spectrum covering deep green fake chlorine, chlorine (yellow-green), and impure sarin/FINAP (yellow). The green in the atmosphere may refer to they who ludicrously claimed he saw a gas cylinder falling from a helicopter, already releasing its green gas in the twilight sky (before its valve was ever snapped off on impact, as designed, and also wasting much of a supply already inadequate to kill much of anyone). But this said to be the cloud near the tunnel entrance...

Release Locations?
"...This cloud was witnessed on the streets in close proximity to the vehicle entrance of the tunnel leading to the emergency department of Point One and on the ground floor of Location 2." 

It was so bad there, this green chlorine, that "Other casualties who reportedly stayed inside buildings or basements, or who tried to go towards the entrance of the tunnel leading to Point One, died." (8.62)

There has, as yet, been no identified weapon or location for any release of sarin or anything else to explain that second chemical or those non-chlorine symptoms, or any gas release past the documented two at locations 2 and 4. And there could hardly be sarin, and no sarin was found, at either of the two chlorine locations. But there are other locations that were mentioned to the FFM:

8.68 Three casualties stated that another device had landed and released chlorine gas in front of their house approximately 50 to 60 meters from the basement at Location 2. Additionally, several witnesses stated that they perceived the odour of a chemical at different locations within 250 meters southwest of Point One.

"A chemical" could mean the one that smelled unlike chlorine. But 250 meters southwest of the medical Point One is roughly in the same area around location 2 (itself about 200 m sw of point one). Unless that 50-60 meters is off in another direction, these might describe the same limited area. (map...) Maybe these are just differing descriptions of the smell(s) in that one area, which most Douma people would not have been in (and thus would report - accurately as far as they know - that there was no gas released).

A mapping of some claims from the report:

I don't have enough information yet to say just where anything was released, or if any of these claims are true, but FWIW, here's the best weather record I know of - not a darksky.net prediction but actual readings from Damascus International airport a few miles south of Douma.
7:00 45°F, wind 2mph from N
7:30 45°F, wind 3mph from N
8:00 44°F, wind 4mph from N (the little arrows show more like NE in all cases, which would put gas spread to the SW, if this wind applied so far north of the airport)
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/OSDI/date/2018-4-4?req_city=Damascus%20International&req_state=RD&req_statename=Syria&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=429&reqdb.wmo=40080

Opposition Chemical Activities
Annex 8, on the opposition chemical warehouse suspected of producing chemical weapons: "Some of the chemicals observed could be used to manufacture at least two of the Schedule 3A chemicals, hydrogen cyanide and cyanogen chloride, both highly toxic blood agents (not found on the location)."

One of those is the main basis for Zyklon B, which has worked well at killing people in gas chambers, if not as a battlefield chemical weapon. I don't think this was used (no signs in the environment mentioned at either site, and symptoms don't match), but it's worth noting for an example; they didn't rule out the substance used to kill these people - and it doesn't even need to be schedule 3A - was made here. Also, the FFM specifies it didn't look like sarin was made there. But until I know more, I'd consider it likely enough this was an explosives etc. plant, as they concluded. It shouldn't be ruled out of relevance that easily, but it's not a clear lead to anything at the moment.

Clinical Signs
As noted above, there were reports of symptoms that chlorine is unlikely to cause, and point more to a nerve agent. But that's reported by people who lived and, like all living people, could be lying. What matters most is the people who died and what killed them. Contrary to what some people say, a dead body can tell you how the person died. The message isn't always clearly readable, even to experts, but it's there.

Sudden Death or … Death Elsewhere?
"8.96 The location, positions and lack of visible trauma on the victims in the videos taken inside the building indicate exposure to a rapidly incapacitating or a highly toxic substance. The victims do not appear to have been in the midst of attempting self-extrication or respiratory protection when they collapsed, indicating a very rapid or instant onset. This type of rapid collapse is indicative of an agent capable of quickly killing or immobilising."

In fact, their deaths look so instant it's almost as if they were dead before they dropped in these spots - or were dropped in these spots, depending.

Either way, the only chemical weapon they found sign of in the house was chlorine, and it only causes instant death in a fluke case of laryngospasm, not something that would hit 35+ people at once. Usually it doesn't paralyze or cause unconsciousness (reports out of Syria disagree on this, and they lose the disagreement. They can't re-write science that easily - see here). It causes people to want to leave, and usually they will, and nearly all would survive the limited exposure.

So what they have here is an unsolved mystery, suggesting that perhaps these people died somewhere else with different chemicals present. The bodies have never been tested. If the place they died hasn't either, we know next to nothing.

A best guess (not the FFM's) would be some dead bodies of gassed people were moved to a place where chlorine was released. They would likely be transported there via the underground tunnels that open about one block from this building. This would be guarded, everyone told to stay inside due to the gas, and anyone who came too close might be shot. As the FFM heard it explained, "Other casualties who ... tried to go towards the entrance of the tunnel leading to Point One, died." But that's because of the chlorine gas in the open there was so especially deadly?

Fake Foam?
"8.90 ... white, foam-like oral and nasal secretions, similar in appearance to fulminate pulmonary oedema but in multiple cases much more profound and seemingly persistent."

"8.98 The airway secretions seen in many cases are similar to those seen with exposure to some chemical weapons, toxic industrial chemicals and toxic doses of pharmaceutical agents but are more profound and seem to have a consistency more like viscous foam than secretions typically originating from the upper or lower airways. Notably, there are casualties both with and without secretions that are in very close proximity to one another."

All odd, but then they close: "In general, the presence and context of the airway secretions indicate exposure to a chemical substance." But aside from generalities, they note it looks different than usual, with bubbles that often don't pop, leaving little dried foam sculptures on some faces. Many (not the FFM) say it looks fake. I would say that, but I'm not sure it really is fake. There are many unknowns about just what they inhaled under what conditions (suffering dehydration? Some kind of thickening dust breathed in as well? Etc.? All unknown). And the foam that's discolored orange or pink seems to be genuinely coming from inside airways clogged with blood and/or mucous and/or unknown substances. So I'm urging caution here in calling clear fake. It's an oddity at least that raises questions that seem hard to answer.

Eye Issues
"8.90 ... One female victim displays corneal opacity. Due to the quality of the videos and the angles of recording, no further ocular signs are noted."
One lacking sign of chlorine exposure is red eyes. It should be in about 100% of cases, but it's seen in about 0%. And this isn't because of bad video or angles - the whites are seen, and they have no pink shift. Another feature that's seen in one boy anyway is tache noir, black spots on the white of the eye, an infrequent sign of death, like the clouding (corneal opacity) observed in several cases, not just one woman.

"8.97 The corneal opacity seen in many of the victims is similar to ocular injuries seen with acid or alkali burns but also resembles post-mortem changes. The interval between death and the time the video/photos were taken is quite broad. "

AFAIK, it's consistent with injuries in the past that have healed into opaque scar tissue. It's NOT consistent with people who just now died from chemicals that burn the eyes. In that case, they would be freshly red, which they aren't. My research suggests corneal irritation, whether from excessively acidic or alkaline substances, always appears as redness of the kind we all know. There's no white irritation I could find.

The time of death might be broad (not sure what that means of if I agree), but not broad enough to allow for the formation of scar tissue, which would probably take days. So the clouding is only consistent with their dying, and with no caustic agents touching their eyes prior to that. But … they do seem to have breathed some corrosive irritant …

Strange Facial Stains
"8.90 ... Several victims display degrees of periorbital discoloration and early signs of livor mortis."

Periorbital... this usually refers to the area inside the eye socket, the soft tissue right around the eyes. This is where periorbital ecchymosis (raccoon eyes) appears in people with intra-cranial bleeding. But in these people, the periorbital area is unusually clear, compared to the area around that...

A thin rim above the upper eyelid, patches on the forehead, across the temples and cheeks, around mouths and noses, and especially in bands across the upper cheeks just beneath the eyes tend to be stained yellow to brown, or sometimes as if by blood, all seeming coughed up by people who were - horrifically - suspended upside-down as someone gassed them with something corrosive. And for unclear reasons, the killers had slapped swimming goggles on them, often secured unusually with straps, etc. so eyes and areas covered with straps came out protected - as noted, no redness, and no staining inside that goggle-shaped area.

This is scary, huge, little-noted so far. It sounds crazy, but I see no other good explanation. See Douma's Mask of Death for the fuller details. I've never seen this in relation to a chemical attack before, and here it's on at least half, and perhaps all the victims. (I do think I've seen it before in another context, on people I suspect were held prisoner by Damascus-area Islamist forces, probably Jaish Al-Islam, back in 2013 - see mask of death part 2 when I finish it, perhaps soon...)

Livor mortis (reddening of the lower parts of the body, as positioned in the hours following death death) does appear in some cases as a varying clue. The boy above has more purple (the low-oxygen, cyanotic version of livor mortis) in the forehead and ears than anywhere else, again consistent with being upside down at the time of death and a while after. That's the same time those nasty burn-stains on his cheeks would have set in. (there's some light issue here, but the purple is clear enough in his lips as well to call cyanosis in his case). The woman with cheeks turned brown except under the straps … under the icky goo, her forehead seems to have a purple tinge as well.

But in connection to eyes (as it's mentioned), some different redness appears, more like a rash, in a sort of mask shape just like the one described above. In this baby girl, that's especially clear, with patches of apparent irritation on the chin, etc. It seems to have developed slowly, much clearer in later photos (different lighting also plays in). In most cases, like the boy above, this kind if burning seems to play in, but is mixed with/concealed by the yellow staining. It usually effects the forehead more, and the chin less if at all. This baby seems differently and less stained, perhaps laid on her back instead of upside-down as usual, and with the yellow sputum was washed off earlier (to prime her for the coming photos that always favor the youngest dead?). Looks like they missed one less-important, yellow-stained earlobe. I suspect she was mostly left face-up so her backside will be livid and front side pale, and this redness is a caustic-induced exception to the general pallor.

"8.101 The periorbital discoloration is not associated with any specific known toxic exposure. To determine whether it is due to a physiologic response to exposure to a toxic substance or simply post-mortem changes would require additional steps."

Note how this important clue remains a total mystery to the FFM, one they didn't even venture a guess for. But it's a mystery we know more about than they would like. It's not a simple post-mortem change either. It's physiological. Once coughed out, gravity pulled the caustic, staining substance up their faces, until the goggles stopped the spread into the immediate periorbital area, but some rolled around the rims, and often rolled up the forehead before dripping off.

One step they could take to investigate this unusual possibility; have a test subject hang upside down in swimming goggles and spit a viscous dyed substance up their face, check the resultant color pattern and note the match. This explains it. Nothing else I can think of does.

I think it also explains another mystery the FFM didn't even take note of: the non-irritated eyes discussed above. How would so many breathe in fatal amounts of a substance that burns the lungs, that would surely burn the eyes as well, and yet all these people died with totally white eyes? Well they could all have been fitted with goggles, but is there any supporting evidence for something that weird? Oh, there is? …

And it might indirectly explain the following mystery as well.

Wet Hair (and faces)
"8.102 The presentation of wet hair in an otherwise dry environment is difficult to assess and is possibly due to profound diaphoresis shortly before death."

We could say this in similar to cold sweats (diaphoresis), but "much more profound and seemingly persistent," as they said for the foam. It doesn't seem quite right. It would be some odd, very slow-drying sweat... visible in the face and hair, but not in the armpits, etc. They ignore the provided explanation that the victims had washed themselves just before death, hoping it would counter the poison that made them basically drop dead (leaving their faces clean, but their hands still filthy, as if they all used someone else's hands, and not any of those on these dead people). Why would the FFM ignore that explanation? Because it doesn't add up to basic logic, or to wet hair 2-3 hours after their sudden deaths? But sweat just on the head does?

It's fairly clear what happened here; someone else has washed their faces up, well after death, shortly before the first images were allowed. That's probably why there are sooty rags by sooty water and a discarded breathing mask all laying nearby. Why the faces, and cheeks and foreheads and hair, but not their hands and feet or clothes? Is this special and unusual washdown related to those bad-looking peri-periorbital stains, or some coughed-up yellow goo still in their hair, for example?
http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/05/douma-chemical-massacre-april-7-2018.html


Death Toll
8.57 The three bodies that reached Point One on the night of 7 April had profuse foaming from the mouth, pale colour of the skin and a strong odour emanating from their clothes. The 40 bodies taken to Point One on the morning of 8 April arrived in groups, transported by the SCD. They were described as having a blue colour of the skin and foaming from the mouth; some had dust on their clothes. The bodies with a similar odour to those mentioned above were buried later the same day.

8.62 ...Witness accounts place the deceased lying on the stairs, inside apartments on multiple levels of Location 2, inside basements of neighbouring buildings across the area, on rooftops and on the streets. Additionally, a witness stated that six casualties died at Point One.

43 is the tally as given around, and here it's 3 bodies brought in + 40 bodies brought in, with no room for 6 more who came in alive but died. If these are included, presumably it's part of the 43 total. As for the 40 - it's said there were 35 bodies at location 2, (34 verifiable), so that would leave just five to be found in surrounding areas (at least 2-3 additional bodies not seen at location 2 are seen in later arrays).

I still wonder why several sources reported or estimated that over 100, 150, 180, even 200 people had died from the chemical attack that night (see here). Nothing in the OPCW report seems to shed light on that mystery.

Location 2 Chlorine Cylinder
Impact Plausibility

"8.31 The analyses indicated that the structural damage to the rebar-reinforced concrete terrace at Location 2 was caused by an impacting object with a geometrically symmetric shape and sufficient kinetic energy to cause the observed damage. The analyses indicate that the damage observed on the cylinder found on the roof terrace, the aperture, the balcony, the surrounding rooms, and the rooms underneath and the structure above, is consistent with the creation of the aperture observed in the terrace by the cylinder found in that location. "

It's not as clear if the experts and models show the cylinder stopping just outside the hole it punched to tip over on the roof. One can ask an expert in impact physics and/or what's best to say, and get him to say this makes sense. But in my humble opinion, they'd be evidently wrong and bonkers to say this scene lines up. It implies a totally implausible 100% transfer of kinetic energy from the cylinder to the ceiling, conducted against the laws of physics, entirely at the moment of impact.

If the ceiling gave, it gave, and the cylinder would enter the room, at least enough to avoid tipping over above its rim. Whatever knocked this hole and flung that reinforcing bar so far inward must have entered the room.

Whatever it was had a similar diameter (likely a bit smaller), had some weight/force behind it and - like this gas cylinder - it didn't explode after entering the room. It didn't start the fire that was lit on top of the rubble it created.

Presumably, it wasn't this cylinder itself, or else why drag it back out the hole just to look wrong? But I could see this; some kind of giant cannon or catapult to launch it high up, it'd come down close to vertical. punch through, scrape off its harness … then get dragged back up there why? And I don't think the cylinder is damaged enough for this anyway. I suspect the cylinder was straight-up planted next to this pre-existing hole. The dents we see are likely from it being launched or dropped on rocks somewhere in hopes that would look plausible to the kind of experts the OPCW would go ask.

Valve and Fire Questions
The valve area is finally seen, it looks snapped off, not unscrewed as I had guessed. My point remains the same, but narrowed; this either happened on impact, or later, serving as the other of 2 methods to hide the melted out fusible plug I've suspected happened due to the fire someone set underneath the cylinder, the signs of which many have tried to ignore or explain away.

Annex 6, point 9. "The FFM team noted the blackening of the ceiling and the rim of the aperture from the room immediately below the point of impact (see photo above). It also noted the blackened sooty walls in the corner of the room, as well as what appeared to be the ashen remnants of a small fire. One interviewed witness stated that a fire had been lit in the room after the alleged incident, reportedly to detoxify it of the alleged chemical."

A lot of people were slow to notice the fire intentionally set an top of the rubble in the corner beneath the gas cylinder (see the Reuters photo above). I've proposed it was set to release the chlorine, by melting out the soft metal fusible plug in the valve assembly. That's what they might hide by snapping it off later. Bellingcat ally and chemistry expert DDTea, for one, had decided this fire was caused by chlorine's known reactivity, reacting to something, and igniting some material that happened to have gotten on top of the rubble. But the OPCW's FFM heard that it was set intentionally, to detoxify this room, for some reason. Not safe; it's reactive with fire …

Also the fire was set and done burning before the first video timed at 10:06 pm (its soot line is already visible across the window wall, and the ceiling is visibly soot-gray as well). This is app. 2-3 hours after the alleged impact, but the cylinder is still frosted on a small part of its underside. All evidence I've seen suggests the cylinder like this would empty within about 10 minutes or less. Why would the cylinder only release its gas 2 hours or more after it landed? Why would someone brave the gas within the first moment after that to light this fire, before even these guys barely look and run away in fear?

Supposed Grid Pattern

The FFM seems to favor the NYT/Bellingcat grilled sausage explanation for the supposed grid pattern "seared" into the cylinder from its initial impact with some wire mesh awning presumed to have covered the balcony. They're not sure if it was up at the time or already laying on the balcony, but somehow "the lateral aspect of the cylinder did not slide on the mesh but it hit perpendicularly." Maybe just after it totally stopped just outside the hole it punched, then tipped over so hard on the mesh laying there it rug-burned its pattern into the paint?

Those who can think in 3-D should get the problem with this right off. If the marks are from the mesh grid, this does NOT show it crashing through from an airdrop. Rough 2-D image and cobbled pointers:

Also, the "impact" has to have the canister stationary on the grid, long enough for that "searing" (by heat? or is it rusted on?) to set in. Not a very kinetic kind of impact.

What if it came down sideways? It would mean the aerial harness failed in its purpose, leaving the canister not positioned nosed-down, less likely to punch through or break the valve and initiate gas release... the initial contact would be lattice-grid shaped for a microsecond, until the snap, and then scrape marks as covered above right, but shorter ones up the sides instead of down the length, or perhaps nothing visible …

"Hey, I found the bullet that killed president Kennedy. You can tell because a picture of his face is "seared" into its side, showing that it must have impacted his head." This is clearly an exaggeration, but it's one of the same kind of absurdity at work here.

Bellingcat is excited the OPCW, besides the New York Times and Forensic Architecture already, "add weight" to this reality-impaired thinking. No one notices it's just one spot that looks like that grid, except for one wire that bends - other areas have similar lines one way, missing lines the other way, and the wrong spacing, and shifting pattern, and other scratches that don't fit. 

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2019/03/01/the-opcw-ffms-report-on-the-april-7th-2018-douma-chemical-attack-versus-the-open-source-evidence/

I'm not certain what these lines mean, but here's my more logical guess, and it suggests two guys pulling and turning the thing in a few small movements, as they dragged it into place, right next to that torn-down wire mesh. In one spot, they may have pulled and turned it so as to leave opposite marks crossing some of the first set, looking like a square grid in that spot (the one spot everyone latches onto). As for the "seared" appearance of the lines, I'm note sure; is it a rust/soot smudged on the surface? paint scraped, later rusting of metal? other?).

There are some other stray lines that don't fit that pattern (just as there are even more that don't fit Bellingcat's partial-grid-and-similar-lines pattern). Maybe these are old scratches and it's all a coincidence. But the proportions re: that grid are uncanny. In the end I agree; most likely caused by the mesh - the ends of 3 or so bars of it. But it was, I think, a slower kind of contact, well after the mesh was torn down in the real impact that caused the hole. 

Location 4 Chlorine Cylinder
The FFM decided it did bounce into that bed after crashing into the room. It's probably on Assad. …

Note: their findings and thinking on this are strange and already widely-noted. As I never had a great feel for that scene, I put covering this as a lower priority. But I don't think it adds up either.