Is the Maung Nu Massacre A Recycled Islamist Atrocity?

(A Myanmar Massacre Considered Through the Lens of a Syrian One)
Adam Larson 
December 22, 2017
(rough, incomplete)
edits 12-23,24...

Note: sorry this is sloppy to start and hard to read - I'll tighten it up. But I feel I have to get this out there quickly.
---
In recent days, there's been a concerted effort by the controlled Western establishment media to inform us of a horrible massacre committed by the authorities in Myanmar a little while back. We hear some 82 to "more than 100" Muslim civilians were rounded up and massacred in Maung Nu in the restive Rakhine state on August 27. Mostly men were killed, stabbed and hacked to death, but some children and women were killed and dumped in pits, and some women were raped but spared to talk about it. As told. It's reported as some twisted collective punishment for an attack two days earlier by Rohingya militants against government security posts, and not for any other kind of incident at that time. And one incident of great interest isn't getting mentioned now. (keep reading...)

sources:
http://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article190954854.html
https://www.ucanews.com/news/rights-group-accuses-myanmar-army-of-village-massacre/80430
https://www.capebretonpost.com/news/shattered-skulls-and-blood-rohingya-report-myanmar-massacre-171992/
The Associated Press has reconstructed the massacre at Maung Nu as told by 37 survivors now scattered across refugee camps in Bangladesh.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/10/03/burma-military-massacres-dozens-rohingya-village
Report includes map, should present the best evidence pretty clearly - I'll see if it's any better than I suspect
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/myanmar-army-massacred-dozens-of-rohingya-survivors-say/ar-BBH6abo?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp
Associated Press
"The massacre was part of a streak of violence that started before dawn two days earlier, when Rohingya insurgents staged an unprecedented wave of 30 attacks on security posts across Rakhine state. At least 14 people were killed."

Wahabbi-inspired Islamist militants are active in the area. Previously in Yugoslavia, Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, wherever the headchoppers pop up, they allege the regime they're up against is head-shopping brutal, sowing sectarian discord, conducting massacres, rape and kidnappings, torture and mutilation, and especially visiting this on harmless children -  besides trying to coldly blame it all on the Islamist freedom fighters they call "terrorists." It's as if no matter the culture or anything, every enemy of theirs winds up being a front for satan himself.

Or as it actually seems on closer study, the Islamists are the nasty ones committing these atrocities and fobbing it off on whoever they're fighting. Would it be so surprising if it were the same in Myanmanr?

But many people truly don't get that still, so here's a little review.

The Houla Massacre Precedent

On first look, this story reminded me a lot of alleged regime massacres in Syria, and notably the Houla Massacre of May 25, 2012. The story of government forces and Alawite militias butchering entire Sunni families was accepted instantly with no proof, and used to expel Syria's diplomats and increase the arming of opposition forces to topple Syria's government (forces which soon branched off ISIS as the one faction not quite "moderate" enough to openly support).

The roughly 106 people killed, including around 50 children, were quite real, but still that was the epitome of fake news of the sort that's caused the deaths of millions worldwide, just in recent years.  As usual for such false claims, this remains accepted by the numbed masses absorbing this deadly disinformation. The same will be soaking up this sordid tale from Myanmar in the same way. So my first question is what if this were like the Houla Massacre?

By May 25, 2012, the Al-Houla area was mostly reebel controlled, aside from the southern half of the village of Taldou, still held by five posts of the Syrian Arab Army. But this day Islamist opposition forces launched a pre-panned offensive with a reported 6-800 fighters who swarmed Taldou and pounded the security posts, starting at mid-day. This is supported by the video evidence, supplied by the opposition with too little redacted, as shown in my 2014 report The Battle for the Houla Massacre (PDF) Soldiers were killed, fled, or were captured. The northern two posts were overrun by sunset, as even the UN's "independent" Commission of Inquiry confirmed (white posts, quotes from UN CoI report). 

But the video evidence itself proves the gains more fully - even the orange posts didn't all hold. Video adds that the arches post was overrun or circumvented, and the hospital was overrun and set on fire, as the government had claimed. The more fortified post on a hill south of town was fired on with RPGs, but everyone agrees it remained in government hands, but it was too far away to directly matter. Now look at these reddish dots where people were killed - areas of fresh and exciting access to the Islamists. Is that a coincidence?

This victory in "liberating freedom square" (the central security post) was not openly reported, but it happened and gave the "FSA" and allies (Jabhat Al-Nusra?) access to just the place where whole families were killed. The pro-government witnesses, who reported this rebel assault the rebel side denies, say some of the victims were pro-government Sunnis, but mainly an extended Abdulrazaq family who converted to Shia Islam. I count 85 or more of the roughly 110 victim in that clan (see here). It was targeted, not random. Children's faces were hacked open, and it's likely women were raped. An off-duty soldier with a broken leg had his eyes gouged out. At right, a room where some of the Abdulrazaqs were slaughtered. 

Islamist rebels somehow found the bodies and scooped them up to their mass grave, claiming pro-government "Shabiha" militia had killed them just for being random Sunnis, and just left the bodies behind. (Illogically, the UN investigation agreed this had nothing to with the day's rebel victory, which they insisted on falsely limiting). 

How to Spot a Questionable Massacre Story

The alleged witnesses who told us about the Shabiha killings in Houla - as with other alleged massacres in Syria - are mainly miracle survivors - usually a fighting age male who somehow hid over here while all his wife and children were murdered over there. Sometimes he saves one baby, for example, to be symbolic. Other times it's a poorly-coached child witness. (like confused little Ali Al-Sayed for Houla), or a veiled woman spouting vile sectarian rhetoric. The witness will give vague or randomly-chosen details, tend to "see everything" like an omniscient narrator, and will make political points, like emphasizing their total innocence vs. the demonic brutality of the targeted state.

This kind of witness survived the Houla Massacre in large numbers (see incomplete but huge ACLOS listing), swearing to the story we can be sure was false, and clashing with each other over the details of that story. To this day they remain accepted as the basis of official/accepted truth. I compiled this for fun from select quotes and the few who crack smiles while they tell the story. (All are alleged survivors, and just a small portion of the total presented)

And I bet we'll find the same here regarding the alleged Maung Nu Massacre. AP heard from 37 survivors? Well, naturally. An important alleged massacre like this deserves to be well-seen, and described many times, in different ways. So the Shabiha, or Yangon's soldiers bent on total annihilation, have to miss quite a few in such cases, hiding in places with good views to see the whole thing. 

If this were another in the tradition of Houla... The dead civilians would be really killed, and just as cruelly as they say - but they would be killed by the Islamists. A likely time and place - where enemy civilians live under government protection that's overturned by force: like the areas guarded by those soldiers attacked on August 25. In such a case, the killing will be done right after some of the posts were completely overrun. The victims would be whoever locally opposes their militancy - Buddhists, presumably, government loyalists, from the little I know. Or simply the nearest available heretics, enemies deemed fair game to kill and use as the militants please. (Clerics, mainly in the Persian Gulf, write up these rules. Sunni Muslims are the only ones off-limits, unless they support the government or otherwise step off the narrow path.)

The smaller number acknowledged as killed in the August 25 clashes would be either militants and/or acknowledged soldier deaths, with zero civilian victims reported at the time (some reports say 12 or 14 "people" were killed, while HRW cites a much higher number broken down by sides). The rebels would deny any massacre, insisting their religion (their only law) forbids it. It does allow lying to infidels, which is pretty much everyone. 

But that 82-100+ killed is likely to be an accurate number or range. The Islamists are proud of their work, the cruelty of it, and the scale of it. The true story will usually reflect in their false claims in these ways, with as little as possible changed - the perpetrators, the victims, and maybe the time or place, if necessary. Suspect a genuine massacre, again likely on August 25. I wouldn't be surprised if the number of boys vs. girls vs. women and men killed winds up matching as well between these two massacre stories.

You'd likely hear about the real massacre if it happened, depending how open the "regime" in question is. They might hush it up, or report the other story of how they say 82+ people were killed. I don't follow the news enough to know if they did ... until I checked (keep reading).

If this was another Houla ... the government would deny there was a massacre, or deny conducting one; if they decided there was one, they'd blame the militants. The Houla precedent (besides many other cases, of course) suggests they could be right.

If the Islamist claims are false, and even if they conceal and launder a genuine massacre by those Islamists, they'll be accepted anyway, if that helps the geopoloitical script move forward. It will stick through repetition because the blamed regime would be outside the fake news walls, where physical truth matters naught. All that matters is the accepted claims of championed activists, and the authority of those accepting them. It is, as some would call it, a "rigged system." 

So that's what we would see, at least in part, if this were the fake atrocity tale I suspect it is. And in fact, it seems this is exactly what we see behind the Maung Nu massacre, if we give it even a little examination. (Even more study will show how well it keeps seeming that way, but this will take some time).

Myanmar Officials Deny Massacre Claims ...

and Lodge their Own...

and Show the Bodies...
and Explain the Truth Behind Maung Nu?

What do the demonized officials say? Looking back into it, they are quite specific and strong on the claims, even if they don't yet realize it. I need to check, but I presume they deny the August 27 massacre (sources... ). But most interestingly, there's an implicit denial in the prior floating of another massacre that seems a likely contender to physically replace theirs - the ultimate refutation.

Myanmar's authorities had already claimed a mass killing of civilians of the same basic size and hideous nature, or would claim it when the evidence emerged (timeline ...). They're claiming Hindus, not Buddhists, were the targets, and local Hindus all seem to agree (they're a minority in this area near the border with Bangladesh.) As I suspected, the event they speak of was two days earlier, seemingly committed by Rohingyan forces (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army - ARSA) in the area they just took over on August 25. 

--(raw sources, partial, with notes, perhaps to be written up more)--
Western media reports passed along the claims by locals, survivors, and Myanmar officials, as it came together about a month later. But these tend to include suggestions the story is false, as it fits the government's narrative. Reuter reporter Soe Zeya Tun said the massacre only attested to the brutality of "Myanmar's conflict," not of any one side or party - and "everyone knows" the regime is generally to blame for the conflict. Tun also referred to the reports of ARSA blame as "accusations" that were flying. Well, okay but they have a ton of evidence backing them, and are countered only by "The ARSA has denied killing the Hindus saying they never kill civilians." Because Islam forbids it, right? 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya-hindus/slaughtered-hindus-a-testament-to-brutality-of-myanmars-conflict-idUSKCN1C21M6

It was "hours" after the militant attacks on army posts that "insurgents of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) came to the Hindu village of Ye Baw Kya, gathered up about 100 people, marched them away through their fields and killed them with knives, the government says." 

Some were pressed to give false stories, and here it gets very interesting:

"In late August, Reuters reporters in Bangladesh interviewed a group of Hindu women from the village who said their male loved ones were killed by Rakhine Buddhists." "However, three of the same women told Reuters this week that Muslims who brought them to Bangladesh had ordered them to say it was Buddhist vigilantes who had done the killing."

Those reporters also didn't hear those women were there as "wives" of the Islamists who gave them this illogical story. The Reuters report credits their new story in a creditable manner. This is worth reading:

"The three – who individually recounted closely matching stories – said that on Aug. 25, they and about 100 other Hindus were marched by masked men to the area of the mass graves.

They were later able to identify some of the masked men as Rohingya Muslims, although the women said the men spoke several languages they could not identify, besides the dialect spoken by both Muslims and Hindus in the area." 

“We watched as they tied each person, hands behind their back and also legs ... They cut all their throats and pushed them into a hole,” said one of the women, Bina Bala, 22, adding that the women were spared after promising to convert to Islam." 

The hospital superintendent who examined the bodies agreed with the women on how they were killed, as they independently agreed with each other. As we hear, they described where the bodies would be found, and where they were found. There were several holes, but that story of "a hole" probably referred to one sub-set of the killings. They also describe foreigners helping in the Islamist fight and massacres, another feature shared with Syria and its many massacres. This is all some pretty damning testimony.

https://www.nst.com.my/world/2017/09/284858/rohingya-militants-deny-myanmar-army-claims-hindu-massacre

By AFP - September 28, 2017 @ 1:21am

"MAUNGDAW, Myanmar: Rohingya militants on Wednesday denied the Myanmar army’s allegations that they had massacred scores of Hindu villagers, whose bodies soldiers displayed to the press after exhuming them from mass graves in northern Rakhine state.

...

On Wednesday the army flew journalists to an area where the mass graves of 45 Hindu villagers, including many women and children, were discovered earlier this week.

The military has accused Rohingya militants of carrying on the massacre on August 25, the same day the group staged deadly raids on police posts that sparked the military backlash.

In its first official statement on the allegations, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) “categorically” denied that its members “perpetrated murder, sexual violence, or forcible recruitment” in the area on 25 August."

Read: all those have been alleged, probably based on solid evidence, and they probably did all those things.

They called on the army to stop “victim-blaming,” according to the statement, which was posted on the ARSA’s Twitter account.

It used an apparent local name – “Fakirabazar” – for the Kha Maung Seik village tract where the mass graves were found, in the statement posted on Twitter Wednesday.

The mentioned ARSA tweet

The decomposing skeletal bodies remained laid out in rows on a grassy field outside the village of Ye Baw Kyaw as distraught relatives wailed, according to AFP journalists at the scene.

Security officers are still searching for 48 missing Hindus who relatives fear are dead.

Hindus who fled the area have told AFP that masked men stormed into their community that day and hacked victims to death with machetes before dumping them into freshly-dug pits.

Ni Maul, a Hindu leader who has helped authorities with the search, told media on the army-led press trip that they found the burial sites using testimony from eight Hindu women who were spared and brought to Bangladesh after they agreed to convert to Islam. “They kept the beautiful eight women alive to marry,” he said.

Women will be defined maybe 13 and up, or maybe younger yet, by Islamist standards. They claim in general, government forces routinely rape Rohingya girls as young as 13. I suspect it goes younger, but the Islamists don't want to admit that, even through their enemies. Their logic is not normal. Consider how they botched this massacre-abduction raid on Kha Maung Seik:

Four Hindu women displaced in Bangladesh told AFP they were among the eight who escaped the massacre in the same area of Kha Maung Seik, with eight children in tow.

“We begged for our lives, asking they spare the women,” 22-year-old Bina Sheel told AFP at a small village for Hindu refugees in the Bangladeshi border district of Cox’s Bazar.

“They asked if we would marry them. We said yes, to save our lives.”

All four women said they were taken to Rohingya Muslim camps inside Bangladesh by the attackers. Sheel said her captor urged her to convert to Islam before she was brought to the Hindu village by a local leader.

Now consider rebels deny killing or attacking anyone, but they wound up with 8 "wives" from these same villages in camp with them in Bangladesh, pressed to blame Buddhist gangs for killing their original husbands. So everyone agrees their husbands were recently killed, as they now hang out in camps with Rohingya, and someone noticed the recent marriages. Hm, that would not add up. Apparently someone stepped in at the samp, and the marriages were split up. Once set free, and prepared to testify, the women say it was the Islamists who widowed them and tried to keep them, and made them lie.

The guys involved will have no good explanation how they got hold of those young widows. This was their big mistake ARSA may now order everyone to avoid: all "wives" must die by the next night. "Don't trust their "conversion" just because you're horny, of soft-hearted." Sorry, but that's just likely to happen now whether I say it or not. They're waging a jihad here, not running a disco club party. The best solution to protect people is probably to eradicate these cancerous militants. Kick arse, guys.

Am I getting ahead of myself here? Perhaps.

There's also a Wikipedia page for Kha Maung Seik massacre. That has a location given I'm using to map this story. Between the area and the different names given for each of a few town involved, I found a rare Wikimapia label I could identify as the basic area of the mass graves found (see below).

From this well-done article:

One of the eight abducted Hindu women taken into Bangladesh called up a Hindu community leader in Myanmar and told him about the massacre and the location of the mass graves.[14][15][7] Accordingly, the local Hindu leadership prepared a list, where 102 Hindus were identified as missing from the two villages of Ye Baw Kya and Taung Ywar in the Kha Maung Seik area of Maungdaw District.[16] Based on the information, the Myanmar army discovered two mud pits with 28 Hindu corpses outside the village of Ye Baw Kya on 24 September.[16] The victims included 20 women and eight men and children.[17] On 25 September, the search party consisting of the Myanmar army, the police and local Hindu leader discovered 17 Hindu corpses in another two mud pits 400 metres to the north east of the previously discovered mass graves.[14] According to the Hindu leader, the corpses were of men aged between 30 and 50.[16] The local Hindu leadership continued their search for the remaining corpses of the missing Hindus, who are feared dead.[16]

and:

An alleged Rohingya insurgent, along with his supporters at the Kutupalong refugee camp in Bangladesh, accused the Rakhine Buddhists of the Hindu massacre and putting the blame on Rohingya Muslims.[4]

Was that one of the guys at the camp who had his stolen widower "wife" falsely tell the same story? Yeah, probably. But now they may have a different story that no Hindus were killed, and that was just the Maung Nu Massacre recycled to blame the other side, as I'll explain. That would be both ironic and necessary, considering...

Is Maung Nu Just this Massacre of Hindus Recycled?

Finally, this is the question I'm driving at. For years, Rohingya proponents have used false and recycled images from all over the world to document alleged regime crimes ... that seemed to be somewhat lacking in real evidence. The BBC noted this fairly well in 2015 in what seems like limited hangout, promoting the general repression narrative anyway. A Dhaka Tribune piece showed this continuing in 2017.

Here we may have a more serious turn - recycling actual massacres they create.

-- extra sloppy part still to re-hash--...and between them, witnesses and alleged survivors, the numbers killed and kept as "brides" add up to about the same things, with just the killers, the date, and the locale disputed.

Kha Maung Seik: 48+45 = 93 - around one hundred total were said by some to be taken, a list has 102 missing, perhaps before the 16 survivors were found (8 women converted and taken as "brides" and 8 children) = perhaps 118 taken, and up to 102 killed, or if 102 total, 86 remained unclear, likely dead. Compare:

Maung Nu: at least 82 killed, bodies and some captives taken away, perhaps over 100 total - some women raped or fondled but spared - etc. (more detailed comparison in time).

ARSA calls this a lie, as they claim a massacre the same size and character was committed against them 2 days later - with no evidence, no mass graves or anything to show except that the village was burned - to conceal the lack of evidence, perhaps. Or because it was burned in retaliation. That could be. Why 2 contested massacres of the same size should exist so close in time and space makes no sense - one is almost surely real, and the other a false version of it ... btw the earlier story has the better chance of being the true one - it's easier to hatch a story sized to a real crime after the fact than to prdict it in advance. Also the one with bodies to show is more credible. This is the government story - implied if not spoken yet. 

HRW and the rest are presuming it's two massacres, one of which they didn't report on now, maybe to avoid confusing the picture of state repression ... as they likely DID REPORT IT ANYWAY, LAUNDERED AS THE NON-EXISTENT MASSACRE THEY'RE SO EAGER TO CONDEMN. Why do they ignore the credible one and promote the one coming from deceitful Islamists like ARSA? Because Myanmar's government is in truth exile to the Western establishment, like the leadership of Syria, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, Lebanon, Yemen and like half the world, pretty much.

On first look, I'm impressed with how well the government and locals' story seems to explain the events reported by the Islamists and their enablers. Yet it seems this has had no effect on the regime-change propaganda machine exemplified by Ken Roth's Human Rights Watch. (see also here for someone perplexed that Suu Kyi would question the evidence for these massacres). This had suggests they are outside the walls in truth exile, relegated to have their reality on the ground denied like Syria, Libya, Yugoslavia, Ukraine, and so many other places have had. 

a well-illustrated and logical massacre with bodies and stories all lining up - replaced with an alleged one with no proof - the villages were burned is the best proof HRW could find (is it?) - could be burned after forced flight - gov. management of the land suggests maybe they don't want them back. Retribution I would condemn, but that's not the same as the brutal massacres they're accused of, that are actually being done by some nasty characters among the Rohingya, including foreign fighters.

Further, villagers may have been made to play refugee and add to the crisis, by ARSA militants, who then burned the village to create the picture of repression or hiding evidence. Burning could also conceal any total lack of evidence in the village. 
---

Why Launder?
But why would they launch claims so similar to their own crimes and risk drawing attention back to a problematic episode? It took a few seconds to realize why: they already have the bodies of the real crime found, survivors talking, all lining up quite well as we've seen, trials pending, and a possible huge problem. Their answer in advance, presumably the original idea that they're now locked into and will have to follow: "that's the Maung Nu massacre, laundered by the regime!"

Claims are the same number killed in Maung Nu and (I think) trucked away to who knows where. So far they have no bodies for the claim, compared to the other side (or didn't someone claim to see bodies left in a pit? - I need to catch up on possible contradictions). Now they might say "Ah, that's where they took them..." near those raided Hindu villages, so the regime and Hindu witnesses and community leaders can conspire to pretend the victims were Hindus and engage in "victim blaming." It seems they've done a convincing job to start, and that will take some forgetting or erasing (not much, sadly). Human Rights Watch is there to help, along with so many other helpful warmongers and lie-peddlers, soaked in blood but well-paid and widely believed.

Further Investigation...

This is a downer story, sorry. But reality needs to be faced before it can be changed, right? So we're on the right track, at least to stop and ask the questions I'm raising here. 

I don't step into new countries lightly, but this I will do - I'm pressed for time lately, so it may be slow - comments are open - and I may start an ACLOS page - and/or a Twitter thread ... I don't intend to go crazy on the details, just see what's available and how it seems to best fit together. 3 day weekend and I don't do much for Christmas. Something, but not much.

projects: map alleged 8-27 massacre site (militant base village?), locale of 30 bases attacks (general or specific), location of allegedly raided villages of 8-25 and mass grave(s). Partly done - see below.

Ideally I or someone should gather media reports of what the alleged witnesses say about Maung Nu, and collate the details for comparison, internally and relative to the opposing story. This is the kind of thing best done at A Closer Look On Syria, in wiki format. It's in our scope. I or someone might start that soon.

<add 12-24>ACLOS page: Maung Nu Massacre. So far it's barely filled-in, focusing on new things rather than copying over. The reports timeline (section) is new and already pretty interesting. <end 12-24>

Questions I haven't looked into yet include: 

* 
what was reported on August 27? Was the story to launder their August 25 massacre hatched that early, or later? <12-24>The first clear story emerged by a report of September 16, but had the date different - massacre on August 25. First version with current accepted date was on October 4. See ACLOS.<12-24>
* Other specific questions will arise...
...
Locations:
Attacked Hindu village: Ye Baw Kya (also known as Riktapara), Ye Baw Kya and Taung Ywar
mass grave found: local name “Fakirabazar” – for the Kha Maung Seik village tract where the mass graves were found - near the village of Ye Baw Kyaw - also known as Fwaira Bazar or Fakira Bazar
FOIRA BAZAR WALIDONG on Wikimapia. It's a tentative ID but right where the Wikipedia article has it pinned, and I put that below.
Alleged Rohingya massacre: Maung Nu (known locally as Monu Para) and nearby Hpaung Taw Pyin (known locally as Pondu Para), nearby battalion 564 base. HRW gives a satellite view - I could find the base labeled and recognize the area. Maung Nu was unmarked at the moment, with surrounding areas just marked as burned areas. They map out like this:

Therefore, the real massacre and the fake one (whichever one considers which) happened about 45 km apart and are not the result of natural confusion.

What Happened April 26 in Barzeh?

The First Bodies Tossed Across Obama's Red Line 
Part 7: What Happened April 26 in Barzeh?
December 13, 2017
edits 12-21

This little-noted alleged incident was noted at the time at ACLOS (still mainly on the talk page), and nothing was ever added. I can't even find any more information now, and all the original citation links are now dead. But it was cited thoroughly, and with expanding context, it's worth a review at least. I've already included it under possible sarin attacks in my big events list.

 

The reports I found in 2013 were two in number, both citing Syrian (normal, pro-government Syrian) newspaper Al-Watan (the Nation - website). I never did try or find the original report. It would be Arabic, and used to not even try that much. One of my two sources was in Arabic, and after translating that, I guess I called it good enough. The Al-Watan report may still exist on the internet, but I haven't found it yet in a few searches. If any reader can find it, let me know in comments, please.

Cited sources:
The effects of “Free Army” using chemical weapons in Barzeh (translated from Arabic title). Breaking News.sy, April 28, 2013 http://breakingnews.sy/en/article/16423.html (no longer comes up, can't be found)   

"Symptoms of chemical gas occur in some Syrian soldiers: report." Xinhua News English (China), April 28, 2013 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2013-04/28/c_132347695.htm (no longer comes up, can't be found)

The Xinhua report is easier to read, but contains less detail. Mainly I'll cite Breakingnews.sy, improving on my first auto-translation preserved at ACLOS.

Incident and Background

"Many victims from the ranks of the Syrian Arab Army" were brought to Hamish hospital on Friday, the 26th, "including martyrs, who have died due to inhalation of chemical gases." The soldiers were reportedly gassed in the course of clashes in Barzeh al-Balad neighborhood "between Syrian Arab Army and the entrenched armed terrorist groups in the neighborhood for many months." "Paramedics at the site reported that a shell landed, fired from inside the Barzeh at the Syrian Arab army forces based in the outskirts of Barzeh," which released the poison.

I'm not familiar with the situtation then, but a Wikipedia article on the area battles notes for this day:

On 26 April, government forces continued with their offensive by pushing into the Damascus districts of Jobar and Barzeh, which have a high rebel presence. Troops were encountering heavy rebel resistance as they advanced with air and artillery support. Rebel positions in the nearby Qaboun district were also bombarded with mortars and multiple rocket launchers.

Barzeh Al-Balad on Wikimapia (and see below): a good-sized northern district, at the edge of Damascus proper and the start of Islamist-dominated East Ghouta. Military and intelligence facilities are just south of it and Tishreen Military Hospital to the north, Bazrah orchards, Douma, Harasta to the east, and Qaboun and Jobar south, and a couple other Barza sub-areas to the west.

The cited hospital is probably Ahmad Hamish Hospital, further into Barzeh proper - in fact in Bazreh Hamish district, per the label. So the government push should be to the east from this area, and the incident should be near the border between districts (rough lines here, per Wikimapia), in or near the orange area. They would probably be fired on from further east or maybe north. That's all we can say for the moment.   

CW Effects  and Type: Sarin?
The chemical weapon caused, among other symptoms, a "white substance from their noses and mouths," with emphasis on its exuding or "trickling" out. This is presumably what they usually call foaming at the mouth, from fluid in the airways, an effect common to many poisons, especially those that damage the airways - including our nasty, impure sarin and/or foul irritant package as used in Syria. We can say they'll also be suffering from difficult breathing, which must have killed a couple. Xinhua's report used the words "suffocation." 
<add 12-21>Of course sarin specifically interferes with breathing by shutting down the muscles needed - it's more paralysis than anything, and a severe case won't even move enough air to form the bubbles that make that "foam." Sarin nwill cause vomiting, increased secretions (saliva, mucous), so they'll have liquid, foamy or not. So that's one breathing problem, and cautic impurities also damage the airways, adding to problem.<end 12/21>

Importantly, the agent cause secondary contamination, as sarin (among other things) will do. Breakingnews.sy:

“Upon arrival of the affected people to the emergency room in the hospital and medical personnel start dealing with the injuries, the medical staff suffered severe nausea followed by cases of fainting, but it was a lighter than the affected people from the frontline. This caused the injured to be sent to another hospital in Damascus."

The report gives no details on the nature of the gas, like its color or smell, just "inhalation of a strange gas” causing these effects. But a decent guess is: yellowish and foul-smelling, and pretty irritating to the eyes and airways. The effects sound a lot like sarin, although it's far from conclusive:
- labored breathing ("suffocation") and foaming from the mouth/nose, consistent but general 
- loss of consciousness, is more indicative, but also general
- nausea is less common, consistent with sarin 
- death (plural "martyrs", not clear if two or more): only so many thing will cause actual death - even sarin attacks in Syria only causes a few or none, usually.
- secondary contamination causing similar effects in people touching the victims: this is a pretty strong indicator of something like sarin.   

Furthermore, the time and area suggest it's quite likely (see below).

Notes on the Lack of Note

No Western news stories reported this, and in fact the few sources who did reported two days later, and no longer have the stories up. Three days later (a day after those low-key news reports) another regime sarin attack would be reported loudly in Saraqeb, yielding the clearest sarin traces yet, from a Jabhat Al-Nusra-linked hand grenade, said to be dropped from a regime helicopter. 

But this day, nothing chemical made the news, except for Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird saying, as CTV News summarized: "There is no reason to doubt reports of chemical weapons being used in Syria." "We would like to see a full investigation by the United Nations," Baird is quoted saying. But in the meantime, as he saw it, "there's no reason to discount or doubt what Israel and the U.S. are reporting." He was referring to statements from both nations that the Syrian government, and not rebels, had used sarin on at least two occasions so far.  "We suspect it's the government, we don't know it's the government," he said." One of those two incidents used the same helicopter-grenade scheme that would be repeated in a few days.

That UN-OPCW probe Baird called for had recently been stalled and denied entry, due to Syria's refusal to accept the unacceptable demands placed on their request for the probe (see here for that twisted tale). In the meantime, as CTV added, "Syrian officials denied Friday that government forces have used chemical weapons against rebels, marking Damascus's first response to the U.S. assertions."

"In the Syrian capital, a government official said President Bashar Assad's military "did not and will not use chemical weapons even if it had them." He instead accused opposition forces of using them in a March attack on the village of Khan al-Assad [sic]outside of the northern city of Aleppo."

That attack, in Khan al-Assal of course, is what sparked their request for the probe that no one could agree on at that time. It still looks like a terrorist attack, probably by Jabhat Al-Nusra, and it's now verified to have been done with sarin. They make no mention of a same-day attack right there in the Damascus area. Officials probably hadn't heard about this Barzeh incident yet, if it had even happened (time of day is one of the many things that remains unclear, but statements tend to come in the first half of the day, I think...). The cited articles are only from two days later.  

This incident really would help underline their case (probably, depending on details). Yet it doesn't seem they pushed for OPCW verification. This incident is not among those listed in letters from the Syrian government as reproduced in later reports. It could be they just don't bother reporting every incident for some reason - maybe some cases have embarrassing details the OPCW might latch onto (they often seem to focus on possible discrepancies to cast doubt on Syria's claims). And maybe they have reported it, but the OPCW just didn't share that. 

This apparent lack of follow-up on the government's part should be seen as a mark against the veracity of these reports. But it shouldn't be seen as much of one.

It wouldn't be unusual if sarin were used on April 26. All through mid-2013 in and around the East Ghouta area, civilians, rebel fighters, soldiers, and animals too were frequently poisoned and killed in attacks said to involve sarin, usually with consistent symptoms, and sometimes verified, somewhat, by non-professionals, like Le Monde journalists, using supplied urine samples, but in no cases by the OPCW (see especially part 6, Forthcoming). These findings clearly don't prove anything, but they might reflect real sarin use like in Khan al-Assal. It seems they had quite a bit of it to toss around, whoever that was, and this may well be one of those cases.

In almost every case involving soldiers through the years now, it's like this; they're on the offensive, have some Islamists cornered, then from that corner comes the foul-smelling poison gas... Considering the reports of pitched fighting, April 26 in Barzeh al-Balad is just the kind of time and place for this to happen.  

So the reports seem realistic and credible. There probably was another CW attack by foreign-backed terrorists that day, against young Syrian men, drafted into the Syrian army to defend their country. Can you imagine the outrage if this happened in any of our countries just once? But this is just one of dozens we know about. And these are just a sliver of the suffering willfully imposed on the people of Syria in this long and shameful campaign. 

Assad Files Paper Recycling Continues

December 3, 2017

Ian Birrell for The Mail on Sunday has dramatic, first-time revealed certain parts of a previously reported pile of papers story: "Body parts stashed in fridges, horrific accounts of torture and mystery disappearances: Full horror of President Assad's regime laid bare as smuggled documents held in secret location are opened for the first time" 2 December 2017 | Updated: 03:09 EST, 3 December 2017.  Headlining shock-point list:

• Operatives smuggled 800,000 documents out of Syria for evidence of Assad's war crimes
• One was wounded fleeing with a case full of documents, another was killed in an ambush  
• At least 400,000 have been killed while thousands are held in detention centres 
• Papers reveal corpses stacked in hallways, bodies with eyes gouged out and unexplained disappearances 

There's one cited document in the relevant period that might be opened for the first time here, one other that's pre-conflict and irrelevant, and two important highlighted documents ... that are the same two important highlighted documents in a few news reports already on the "Assad Files." These news stories span the last three years and running, well-paced for story longevity, every 7-11 months. In each reminder article, it's presented as new and shocking, and they keep pulling up these two main documents and a couple of rotating others as a sampling that's ... deliberately weak? Or just the best they could find?

Timeline of "Assd Files" stories

• 8 October, 2014: New York Times 
• (7 months later) 12 May 2015: Syria's Truth Smugglers, the Guardian
• (11 months later) April, 2016 Bashar al-Assad's War Crimes Exposed Ben Taub, the New Yorker
• (11 months later) March 15, 2017: Reuters piece, to prime us for the following?
• (11 days later)  March (26?), 2017: Documentary: Syria's Disappeared aired on Channel 4, UK 
• (8 months later) December 2, 2017: this in the Daily Mail.

Looking at that, I'd say the pace has picked up this year. If you do the tired old trick a little faster, it can seem fresher, seem like it's "going somewhere." 

The people responsible for collecting and spinning the "Assad files": Committee for International Justice and Accountability, a private but government-supported group dedicated to getting certain governments in legal or legal-seeming trouble. They try to do this by gathering evidence - especially paperwork - but also often-crucial and unverifiable claims from alleged witnesses. Birrell refers to the CIJA and its contractors inside Syria several times as "brave." Some of their activists/smugglers have reportedly been killed or wounded by a regime desperate to hide the blood-curdling secrets contained in these papers. 

Bill Wiley is the main visible face of this project, cited in the Mail article. Wiley and co. have a bunch of real documents - there are others who've run clearly fake docs, but I doubt these guys do. There are over 800,000, they say, hoping for a day in court. Between all of these, we have now FOUR documents shared in some detail as best examples. These aren't one-in-a-million examples or complete flukes mind you. These represent one out of every 200,000+ files. That strengthens the case. They didn't find just one shady-seeming document in this enormous cache. They found four of them.

But that appearance of oppression could also be in how you read the documents, as we'll see below. And from the rest they keep not showing, it seems they have 799,996 or more documents that don't even look criminal when put in a certain light. That is, they might have a massive documentary absolution of the "Assad regime," that they never plan to let some defense team see. It' all for show, to keep the appearance of repression and the need for this running regime change campaign.

The first three specified papers were already tallied and analyzed at the well-done ACLOS page and written about here at the Monitor. Below, in review: what's shared in Birrell's piece, what's not shared, and what's new here - a fourth entry, finally.

specific claims - not new: 

1- crisis cell meeting August 5 (ACLOS): (not dated here aside from August, presuming same document or day's set of files). This order for a crackdown  may mention non-violent activists as people to round up, and maybe that's why this one was chosen (it could literally be a typo not repeated in following orders). But some activists were coordinating and knew things, and would be good to question at least. And more importantly, said orders should also mention militants involved in this crisis. Yet this is not mentioned, suggesting Wiley and co. have omitted it in their selective presentation.

It's a serious omission to make. Just 5 days earlier in Hama, on July 31, unexpectedly capable militants launched coordinated raids on several security posts, killing some two dozens police and military, dumping 13 slaughtered captives in the river the next morning, at least one with his throat cut. Between militants killed in self-defense, and civilians (killed by the militants?) some 80+ other men were also killed in Hama this day, and the package was sold as over 100 protesters gunned down for no reason. (see here)

The Syrian government already had hundreds of security personnel killed across the country, many civilians killed as well, and daily accusations of regime crimes pushing towards military intervention ala Libya. So they had a crisis, and developed a national plan. The CIJA publicity machine gives us a distorted partial look at it, spun as an unprovoked attack on strictly peaceful protesters.  

2- DeZ bodies in fridges memo (ACLOS):

"In September, the public attorney in Deir Ezzor sent three faxes—later retrieved by the CIJA’s investigators—to the governor, the Syrian minister of justice, and the head of the province’s joint investigation committee, urging them to stop violating Syrian law. In one, he wrote, “Parents and relatives of the arrested persons are asking daily about the fates of sons, fathers, and brothers. You ought to listen to what they have to say. The hospital refrigerator is full of unidentified corpses that have disintegrated, since they have been there for a long period of time.” (Taub)

This Deir Ezzour public attorney could be a rebellion sympathizer, or just being informed by them. It could be they have relatives arrested for armed activities, or on suspicion, and are worried. Or it could be people they think were arrested but were really killed by the regime and stuffed in fridges, or by criminal gangs and dumped somewhere. Presumably found bodies the government has no identity for are being stored in fridges as people worry. "Body parts" seems to be extrapolated from the bodies "deteriorating"

Document dated September 11. No one mentions the date, but I was able to read it myself on the document - 9/11/2011 is ten years since 9/11/2001 and just as ambassador Stevens was getting killed by the same kind of "protesters" over in Benghazi. This is the extra-chilling document they actually show us - the only one, I think (shown panning by in the Channel 4 program). I asked about a translation from these screen-grabs, but got no response. I'm now crowdsourcing this. Comments open, etc. This is the one document we can see in full, mostly, and get translated. What all does it say? Note this will be the one with the least exculpatory context, their best example of a document where the whole page almost looks right. Let's see how close it gets.

3 (not mentioned here) Late May 2011 (ACLOS): Jameh orders torture stopped, no doc where he ordered it begun - apparently he heard reports or even just accusations that it was happening, and also reiterated don't shoot protesters, without specifying whether or not he believed this was actually happening. It all seems like "if you're doing this crap, please stop." 

That's the three documents they bother to highlight as best examples.

New Bits from Birrel
Mazen Hamada Family Updates: not part of the files but related to their permanently-attached star witness Mazen Hamada (it's he, not "papers" that speaks of gouged-out eyes): "His remaining family has disappeared after a recent regime attack on Deir ez-Zor." He was in touch with them under ISIS occupation until then? Hm.
"Four relatives are still missing, although he thinks he saw the body of one nephew among 53,000 images of corpses smuggled out by a military police photographer." Earlier he still held out hope... this nephew was arrested with him way back in 2012, and would have to die prior to August, 2013 in order to be seen in the Caesar Photos. but he only decided on a match, apparently, since his last stories in 2016. This is a bunch of crap digging for fresh drama to keep the story alive. He's studied the photos and cites some abuses seen therein, like gouged-out eyes, blue bodies, and a kid with a melted neck as things he saw with his own eyes, also. He might have a specific photo in mind, a dramatic one, to be his poor 15-year-old nephew.

June Beating Death Coverup? Idlib
One apparently new document is revealed, and it's not bad. I'll list at ACLOS, for best example #4. This one is "chilling," the journalist Birrell helpfully notes.

A chilling series of letters from Idlib in June 2012 exposes how a military judge signed off the death of a man from ‘sudden heart attack’ – a euphemism used often with murdered detainees. But the next day a military police officer pointed out the man died due to being beaten at a checkpoint. Doctors confirmed the real cause of death: ‘nervous system failure due to pain caused by bruises all over the body – more specifically, the testicles and the stomach’.

The claim that heart attack is used as a euphemism is unproven. There's been one document shown saying cause of death heart attack, and for all we know it was. Here, for all we know the checkpoint beating could be another like this, at a likely rebel checkpoint, they have a guy badly lashed a couple of minutes prior to having him say on camera, still weak with shock, that Assad's guys did it at a checkpoint. As a first priority, of course he rush over here in a wobbly daze to get the story documented, right?

I suppose this report sounds more like their own checkpoint (or else they wouldn't know it happened at a checkpoint - like if they found a victim dumped. I mean it's not like he'd stagger to an army post before telling the story and keeling over - that's even dumber than the story related above)

Idlib in June, 2011 had some interesting sub-areas - a number of Islamists in the military defected and killed over 100 of their colleagues in Jisr al-Shughour June 3-5, before fleeing back to their sponsors in Turkey. Some of the victims were brutally beheaded in Islamist fashion. It was sold as defectors killed by Alawite militiamen and Iranians, when they refused to kill protesters. So Just who was beating who over what, where and when in this context isn't necessarily clear or all that compelling. For example, if one of these defectors was caught trying to sneak out, and struggled at all, he might get stomped to death by infuriated soldiers, and maybe a doctor might try to write that off. Who knows?

<add 12/3>In my haste I didn't notice these faxes are from June 2012, not 2011. Ok, so that's part of why they didn't cite this yet. Most cited papers are from 2011, when it's believed there was no armed insurgency and all orders of repression were against protesters. By 2012, mentions of militants are less avoidable, and even the public knows militants including Jabhat al-Nusra were well active by then, especially in Idlib. They were more frequently doing things like taking over government checkpoints for periods of time, and whole towns.

As usual, the full context of the document is not shared to get a clearer reading. But there might be some criminal or extrajudicial activity documented in this spot. On the surface, it sounds like someone was beaten to death at a government checkpoint and a doctor tried to cover it up, but changed his story when a military man pointed out the inaccuracy. Hm. This is supposed to reflect the claimed systematic conspiracy to murder detainees all in secret? Is that really so impressive when it's alleged prisoners are rounded up, tortured and exterminated en masse on centralized orders, nationwide and from the start? The CIJA has so shared no documents reflecting such a policy. They found one possible beating death covered up, seeming to be its own unusual incident they were concocting a response to, at worst. It's the most concrete example yet for such alleged coverups, and it sort of contradicts the theory, doesn't it? <end 12/3>

Conclusion

That was our fourth point of proof chosen, compared to a supposed 799,996 other documents that didn't look quite so "chilling" or incriminating. I bet they even have a #5 with a passable line waiting in reserves, the clever buggers.

Consider: the only realistic way to a just peace is with the Syrian government in control and uncontested, like they were in 2010, the last time things were livable there. People like the CIJA say no way, these leaders need to face trial, not run a country or fight terrorism. They have to be brought down and arrested, face trial or get shot, etc. So they endeavor to block peace and prolong the conflict, in the name of justice. You'd better have a damn good case if you insist on this stance.  

These guys pretty clearly do not have a good case, just a repeated performance of confidence using the same small set of tricks

Any lawyers, journalists, human rights campaigners or government officials allowed to see these documents - request a full translation of these best examples, ask for any second-best examples, have those 5-8 documents FULLY translated yourself, and you will then be able to gauge the strength of the case in these 800,000 papers. Don't just accept the word of these confidence artists who get paid to act that way.

What Happened December 6 and 22, 2012 in Daraya?

The First Bodies Tossed Across Obama's Red Line
Part 3: What Happened December 6 and 22, 2012 in Daraya?
November 27, 2017
(incomplete) 
updates Aug. 17, 2018, Feb. 17, 2020

The oldest CW allegation you'll hear about from France or Israel or the United States was in Homs city, back on December 23, 2012. This confused incident is explored in part 2 of this series, but in review:

The opposition lodged clashing claims - a poison that seemed to be either sarin or the non-fatal incapacitating agent BZ (or maybe both?) was reportedly released by government forces, killing 6 civilian men and one rebel fighter (per opposition records). That was mostly reported at the time as 7 fighters. Western experts dismissed it at the time as some murky mystery and- something like tear gas gone awry - not a real CW incident and not over Obama's red line. It stayed like that for three months, but as soon as Syria was demanding a probe of the March 19, 2013 Khan al-Assal attack (see part 1), France, the UK, and the US decided this case and one other (and then some others they scraped up) also needed to be investigated just as urgently, helping to jam up and stall Syria's requested probe. (see Was the Syria Chemical Weapons Probe "Torpedoed" by the West?)

An event those powers didn't include in their growing list, and still won't tell you about, happened one day earlier than this first widely-known CW attack, with the same death toll of seven. In fact, it seems kind of like the Homs incident was cooked up to distract from or shift the implications of this preceding event. These 7 bodies tossed across Obama's red line without note were Syrian Arab Army soldiers. Back then I created the ACLOS page Alleged Chemical Attack, December 22, 2012. There's not much details to share, so it's all included below and then some.

Two Reported CW Attacks in Jobar Daraya (duh)

December 6: Vague Claims of Regime Use
On December 6th there was the first claim of CW use that I ever noticed (ACLOS page), coming just after Obama's December 3 re-iteration of his "red line" threat/offer (the first instance I had noticed - I didn't know he'd said it already in August). It was just three days later that the threat was snubbed or the offer taken, at least tentatively. And it was in Daraya, southwest Damascus suburbs, where reports came in of poisonous gasses "thrown" by government forces engaged there. This was from the well-connected Local Coordinating Committees, with no details and no word on casualties (presumably no deaths).

Times of Israel reported on these claims December 7, citing the LCC report with no more detail, but supporting it claims from a supposed CW defector. Captain Abdul Salam Abdul Razaq is cited telling a Saudi paper that Syria was already using mustard gas and sarin (both described as nerve agents) routinely, using sarin to clear any area before entering (since it was odorless, not foul-smelling, and evaporates in 30 minutes...). This logic-impaired Wahhabi activist "also pleaded for international assistance in taking control of chemical weapon sites, which he claimed defectors have accurate intelligence about." 

Anyway, no deaths or details, like who if anyone was even affected, were ever reported. So the December 6 incident is a fairly weak claim itself, and we're done covering it.

<Insert, 2018> Did they really call in a CW attack but have no one die? Or did they have someone die, and then just not pull it together? After noting finally the not-pulled-together incident of November 30 in Daraya, with 3 men killed in bizarre fashion, listed by the VDC as random shelling deaths, I decided to re-check for any tentative CW martyrs there a week later. All Daraya martyrs on Dember 6 = one. And it so happens that was a baby who died from breathing things, with no wounds. Mohammad Ali al-Khouli, from Daraya, killed by "other." Notes: "months old 9 , was martyred due to suffocation by the smoke from shells." It was not, as they decided, from the toxic gas allegedly launched there the same day. I'm not so sure it's a coincidence. There's a photo, shown below. His eye may be damaged, swollen, seem raw along the edges of the lids. Is this nine months old, or younger? He has red hair by the eyebrows, but his head seems abnormally bald. I see zero hair. Was he undergoing chemo, that doesn't effect the eyebrows? Or was his head shaved very recently, or am I just wrong? I'm not sure what, if anything, those blue spots on his head mean. They look like varicose veins maybe, but some have sharp little black dots, like poked holes associated. Some minor facial wounds, eyebrow area, jawline - crusted blood from the mouth, perhaps some yellow stuff on his lower lip? Blood in the corner of one eye? From the eye, or the airways?

Was that baby "displaced," as single children dying from chemical incidents in these days usually were? Perhaps. Khouli is not usually a Daraya name. VDC lists 61 Khoulis killed, 31 listed as from Misraba, some distance away in Eastern Ghouta, in fact right next to Douma. Only one other is listed as from Daraya - Mahmoud, killed 6 days later by random shelling "on Abu Bakr mosque". The only fatality to be the baby's possible father, by names, is Ali al-Khouli, from Misraba, an FSA fighter, age 43, killed by random shelling 5 months earlier,  back on July 8. It was a bad 2 weeks for FSA fighters named al-Khouli - he's just one of 3 killed between 7-8 and 7-21, the others (from other areas) killed by shelling, unexplained execution. And in that same span, a civilian man with the same name as the baby: Mohammad Ali al-Khouli, civilian, from Misraba, was killed by unexplained shooting. Closer to the baby's murky deaths, five civilian men named Khouli were killed at once in Misraba on December 3, mostly by shelling. One was shot. All this could mean nothing, but seems worth noting. 

<end 2018 insert>

<insert 8-22>The LCC's daily updates have a few clues. They show that baby as the daily image atop the Dec. 6 report with his name mangled a bit (child martyr Mohammad Alkholiv) This says "The LCC documented 248 points of shelling … The regime forces shelled Mohasan and Buomar by Phosphorous Bombs and threw toxic gases in Daraya."   It seems unrelated to this entry that was inserted twice: Damascus Suburbs: Daraya: Mohammed Ali Al-Khouli, 9 months old, was martyred due to suffocation by the smoke from shells." There's no video of this smoke, not the toxic smoke, to compare. But the smoke part might be carried over from the day before, or allegedly repeated 2 days in a row. Their December 5 report says, above a video: Firing Toxic Gas in Darayya, Damascus Suburbs. Presumably, the video goes with the next day claim. And it doesn't appear to be an overnight thing, but a daylight one. Well, herd to be sure as the video is dead
dead video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfehJ2t5_ks

But searching those words, I found an active video claiming to show the same: " Damascus Darya use of toxic gases 5-12-2012"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3ViJD9vDVk

Some jagged metal is perhaps supposed to be the blown-up bomb? Some liquid on the ground perhaps, but mostly dried, and in the middle … someone has set a vigorously-burning purple smoke bomb? Was little Mohamed supposed to have been killed by this smoke originally? Can we see why they maybe decided to demote this to a vague claim of toxic gas, and not claim that tossed body as a red line one?

But that's not to say it was based on nothing. It does have chemicals used, apparently in some response to Obama's renewed offer, and the people with possible plans to cross the red line were in Daraya, which rings likely considering the following.

December 22: Soldiers Killed by Terrorist Use?

16 days later, pro-government sources reported, a group of Syrian soldiers was in Daraya and had toxic gasses somehow thrown at them. Iranian news first reported this, saying only that the gas was yellow in color, and the seven who died did so within an hour or less. (via ACLOS page)

Militants fighting against the Syrian government have used chemical weapons against the army in Daraya near the capital, Damascus, military sources say.

According to a commander of the Syrian Presidential Guard, at least seven Syrian soldiers were killed on Saturday after they were attacked by a chemical weapon which produced a toxic yellow gas.

The soldiers were reportedly killed within an hour after inhaling the gas.

A later OPCW report (a revised version only, available via Zanders blog and now ACLOS) mentioned this incident being reported by the Syrians, sort of a side note from the past. The details they share in their report are exactly the same.

 2.4 In addition, Note Verbale 150 made reference to an attack where it is alleged that toxic gases were employed against Syrian Arab Army soldiers on 22 December 2012. According to the note verbale, seven fatalities occurred as a result of exposure to a yellow gas. These fatalities happened within one hour of exposure.

This strangely adds almost exactly nothing to what we already knew. Is that all the Syrians handed the OPCW, or is it just all they shared with us? But coming later, from the government, that death toll should be updated to reflect the final count, if the first reports didn't. But it's still 7, with no delayed deaths added later. That's noteworthy.

Sarin Attack? 

There's no further mention of the December 22 incident in the OPCW report; it seems they didn't investigate it. But after noting it, they did bother to explain in the other cases, "those affected in the alleged incidents may have, in some instances, been exposed to some type of non-persistent, irritating substance" (like chlorine) and in one case (Daraya, Feb. 15, 2015) exposed to a "sarin-like substance." [2] It's not spelled out, but between possible inclusion and implied exclusion, they suggest the December 22 attack was likely by chlorine or some similar in action, and not by sarin. This makes it seem a bit less interesting than it perhaps deserves to be. 

In fact, those 10 irritant cases tend to NOT be chlorine attacks as presented (see big events list here). Whatever it is (apparently 2 or 3 different things), it sometimes smells like chlorine, but other times rotten or burnt smelling. And it tends to incapacitate people and make them pass out in a way chlorine usually doesn't, but that sarin, for example, does. The agent(s) used are not identified, and worth more study. 

In that OPCW list, a yellow color does not come through in most cases, but in the bigger list of all similar claims, it tends to be the most common, which is a potential match for this December 22 attack. No one says anything else we've heard. The delivery weapon is not described. No smell is reported. Types of symptoms that proved fatal are unexplained. It's not clear if "they suffocated with damaged lungs (chlorine)" or "they had their nervous system disrupted and stopped breathing" (sarin) is the better description.

But 7 dead, so quickly, would be quite unusual for chlorine, whereas it's to be expected with sarin. Extreme exposure will paralyze instantly and kill within seconds. Most fatalities will occur after some minutes of struggle, and occasionally they'll live longer, perhaps in a coma, before dying. If this had been sarin, for example: One might die instantly, four more within ten minutes, four others might struggle for up to 30 minutes, and one guy's nearly-survival was cancelled after 50 minutes. Statistically, maybe 12 others would stabilize and recover for some days, 22 others would be unaffected or recover within minutes to hours and be discharged that day or the next. That's a lot not to mention, but no one has asked, that I've noticed.

If it were chlorine, maybe a group was pinned down under fire, and hit with a strong dispersion, waited too long too run, suffered massive damage, suffocated fairly quick with shredded and blood-filled lungs.  But there should be others who got near as much and at least died after a longer struggle. But it sounds like the dying stopped after an hour at seven and everyone else pulled through. Large-scale chlorine deaths will hardly ever stop after an hour. They'll usually go on for days before there's a final toll. So unlikely this was chlorine or anything as simple. More likely, it was a nerve agent, or at least something more acutely fatal. 

Why would Syria not report this? It's possible they didn't even know or do the right tests, and it's possible they did know and concealed it for some reason, or told the OPCW and they neglected to mention that even as they argued against it.  

And consider this:

Volcano attacks in Daraya Added late, Feb. 2020: As aleady included in this post on "black sarin?" and volcano rockets - some very interesting videos made at the same time in Daraya …
On or before 26 December - 4 days after the alleged fatal attack on soldiers - Daraya local council shows a VOLCANO rocket later linked to the Ghouta sain attacks and others in Adra, etc. Sides split open, black oily splash on the pavement, yellow material inside, yellow smoke rolling off, but a cameraman right there, not sounding to be in a gas mask, and he's fine. Title: Darya Danger - Assad regime's missiles bombing the city. (from Bellingcat's early article Volcanoes in Damascus, July 15, 2014

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYq9p2Ojhgs
داريا خطير - صواريخ نظام الأسد التي تقصف بها المدينة
uploaded by المجلس المحلي داريّا

From an earlier Eliot Higgins/Brown Moses blog post, some photos or stills of that were given as 4 January (did someone fudge the date on purpose?). That made it seem to be the same day as another volcano impact in the muddy soil of another spot in Daraya. That seemed coordinated, but it wasn't. And also no numbers seen on the tubes as we would later in the year. The 4 January scene has a wide black patch, yellow crumbles emitting smoke, and a cameraman unaffected even after walking through that smoke. 

This does not seem to be the same yellow smoke said to kill the soldiers in December. No one mentions these video impacts to be toxic at all (or it's not clear). There were no repots of chemical attacks of any kind on either 26 December or 4 January - opposition reports fell from between 23/25 December (Homs) and 19 March. The purpose seems to be having these seen, seen as from the regime, perhaps linked to yellow smoke (in case 22-12 stuck, they could say it was friendly fire w/one of these?), and these would SOON be reported with black splashes like these said to be sarin.

I did not update the following summary to include these winter videos, so just take that as an interlude between the 22 Dec. and the next incidents picking up later in 2013.

Sarin in Daraya, 2013-2015
Daraya is next to Moadamiya, where the West Ghouta portion of the Aug. 21 chemical massacre was said to happen. The area including both towns was effectively a pocket at the time, cut off from other rebel areas in East Ghouta. If there were any false-flag shenanigans with sarin here, it would be from sarin held locally in Moadamiya and/or Daraya.

Soldiers would be hit with sarin in Daraya later, confirmed, twice...

8-25-2013: Ahrafiya Sahnaya is a town just south of Daraya, given as the local of an incident on August 25, 2013. Actually it was at the sewage treatment plant between the two towns, so basically Daraya. For the third time since the Ghouta massacre on the 21st, rebels had hit Syrian soldiers in Ghouta with serious toxins - two were confirmed by the OPCW as sarin, including this one.
A cylindrical canister was thrown with a catapult, around 7 or 8pm, released a "foul-smelling smoke" that caused decreased consciousness, nausea, AND it was an irritant, causing lung damage, eye  irritation, besides miosis, fatigue, and hospital stays of almost a week.

2-15-2015: 18 months after that 8-25-2013 incident, just 1.8 km northwest of that spot, and still on the frontline, another group of soldiers was hit with a smoke weapon that had a strange smell "like burning nylon" and caused burning in the eyes and lungs. This incident is also confirmed by the OPCW as sarin (from the same report, and this case has some detail, also explored in this post here). No one died, but four soldiers suffered notable exposure ("blurred  vision, teary   eyes,   runny   nose,   dizziness, headache, breathing difficulties, mild fatigue, and nausea."), and one had severe impairment, lost consciousness, and may have come near dying. 

just where the 12-22-2012 attack happened is one of many things that's unclear about it. Was it the same then as in these later cases? Was that yellow gas foul-smelling and caustic?

But whatever it was, in the end what matters more is who used it and what that says about their capabilities - technical and moral. There's been no suggestion the government gassed their own, but that would probably come up if pushed - but it seems probably rebels did this, and the very next day, someone decided to create the impression Syria was tossing poison gas, and not in Daraya but up in Homs. As I'll be adding there too, "Assad" may as well have left this note attached to that Homs attack.

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