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Warning: This site contains images and graphic descriptions of extreme violence and/or its effects. It's not as bad as it could be, but is meant to be shocking. Readers should be 18+ or a mature 17 or so. There is also some foul language occasionally, and potential for general upsetting of comforting conventional wisdom. Please view with discretion.

Thursday, December 29, 2022

Donetsk PRE-Christmas Shelling, 16-24 December

December 29, 0222 

(rough, incomplete)

last edits Jan. 10, 2023

From a discussion, published 20 December, between Denis Pushilin, Acting Head of Donetsk People’s Republic, and Russian Russia's president Putin:

Vladimir Putin: With regard to shelling, as far as I understand, the Ukrainian forces are targeting residential areas of Donetsk.

Denis Pushilin: Yes, what we see is targeted firing of shells into large areas in Donetsk, Makeyevka, and Horlivka. In Donetsk alone, 21 people died and 94 were wounded, and 460 buildings were damaged from December 2 to December18.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70156

 I haven't followed the death toll with the attacks covered here, partly in his span and partly past. It seems many are injured, some severely, but few deaths are reported. Nonetheless, what keeps happening daily or almost hourly is state-sponsored terrorism by the Western-backed forces of the Maidan Junta in Kyiv. Artillery shells and rockets hit homes, but mainly streets, schools, the water system, heating plants, hospitals, churches, public markets, public transit, government officials, centers of administration and emergency response, and symbols of Russian culture. 

And they have the audacity to say - for almost nine years running - that they aren't doing this; it's either made up or when proven, the Russians or the DPR are shelling their own over & over, vainly trying to make Ukraine look bad. It was this shelling and children hiding from it rather than attending school that former Ukrainian president Poroshenko bragged would let his side win the civil war in the Donbas. If pressed, he'd say the Russians/DPR were going to win the war for him with this relentless terror shelling of their own people.

https://twitter.com/rodgerk1/status/1512982599685349386

my ballistic analysis of shelling in September and December: week 1, week 2, week 3 here, and I think I'll re-arrange the dates a bit to skip late November, have 8 days covered in each post and maybe a 4th post soon to cover Christmas day to January 1. week 3 f/c). The work is technically amateur but sound, illustrated and open to challenge. What it lacks in technical precision it makes up for in depth of proof that the shells hitting Donetsk come from the direction of Ukrainian-held areas mainly to the northwest, and sometimes the west, southwest, or roughly north. 

Repeated claims the fire comes from the Russian-held east fall apart on analysis (some examples in the above links - I don't think I have any to add for week 3). A few cases are unclear and so far ONE suggests impact from the east (see December 6, entry "6I 50-richchya SRSR St"), but they come amid numerous hits from the other way. If it's 10 shells from the NW (as it seems), it's probably Ukraine and the other one might be a drone strike with a U-turn at the end. Otherwise, if that's impossible because "missiles can't U-turn," then the Russians did it, with 10 of the missiles U-turning, just leaving this one to expose their clever plot, their latest crime against reality.

Another guy ("Andrew Perpetua") picked a roof impact he hadn't seen (no one had), drew an arrow pointing east to Russians, did it on an upside down map so it looked like west, mumbled something about the Russians claiming something, then flipped the map over to reveal ... his pointing to the Russians, with an arrow on a map - to proves all the rockets came from them, from the east. That was December 15. There were some 40 rockets that day. I've mapped and analyzed 23 of them. Not all are conclusive, but a good half point NW, general west, and a few clear SW origin. Actual evidence you can see. My maps are right-side-up except where noted, and all the arrows mean something real.

Ok,sorry - will maybe modify & move that intro. Onto week-ish #3, 16-25 December

Note: some days include extra reports and others do not.

Note: times on Telegram posts are supposed to be local time, adjust +10 hours, then 11, then not sure from what I see. Don't take those too serious - some just help clarify a few points or to get an idea of the pace of things (whatever time, it's consistent within a batch - 2 entries 5 minutes apart actually are)

Note: Jan. 1: entries re-ordered to reverse-chronological, cutting Dec. 25 for part 4. 

24 December

6:41 PM  https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12416

At 19:25 enemy artillery attacked the Kyiv and Voroshilov regions. According to the JCCC, from N. Orlovka village, 8 rockets were fired from the MLRS. According to eyewitnesses, arrivals on the street. Shchors, near the railway hospital; in the building of the Republican Traumatology the glazing was broken. Limit your movements on the street as much as possible!

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12418

12/24 8:24 PM

Consequences of the shelling of the Kyiv(ski) region (district)

- the caretaker of kindergarten No. 151 received a shell shock;

- in the building of kindergarten No. 151, window blocks and roof were damaged;

- doors and glazing were damaged in the building of the Republican Trauma Center;

- there was a direct hit in 1 apartment building on the street. University;

- 3 more apartment buildings on the street were damaged to varying degrees. University, Shchors and etc. Titov;

- 10 cars damaged.

- During the shelling of the Petrovsky district, the glazing in the building of the polyclinic of hospital No. 14 was damaged.

High-quality video: Ukrainian troops shelled the center of Donetsk, two hospitals were under fire

https://t.me/rian_ru/189733

24A) Near "road clinic" (Дорожня Клінічна Лікарня на ст. Донецьк) 

One strike area found is at 48.018835,37.7981764. Verified by street view, newer photo. Just light/unclear damage, broken windows can be made out. The apartments across the street (verified by street view) also have light damage. Impact point unclear. 

Space for any more detail, worthwhile pics...

https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1606826865670619136

24B, C) Donetsk Regional Clinical Traumatology Hospital/ Republican Hospital 

https://t.me/wargonzo/9997 gives the name by which GM Labels bring me to 48.021905,37.7980225. Statue match. Facade style match.

https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1606853135754227714

2+ impacts at the trauma hospital - not 100% placed, but probable. I think this is called the Republican hospital. Shell #1 seems to come from close to due north (soil in all directions but back, forward limited by wall). It could also be from the west or northwest, but probably not from any south or east angle. #2 has a small E-W trench. From the west along that line makes the most sense, but I'm not sure how to read that until I see any wall damage, etc..  https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1606871961296330754

24D) Building just behind hospital

In a video filmed mainly around the Republican hospital https://t.me/nm_dnr/9645

... non-descript wall with frag marks - 2011 street view shows a likely enough match just behind the hospital - loose bit of whatever (yellow) the same since 2011 and unchanged by the attack? Odd, but helpful. This is a south facing wall, not directly impacted, but seemingly quite near = probably not from the north (but maybe - it's not a tall place) and the band of frag marks angling up to the right says it came partly from the west. Quite nearby: some structures like grain silos or giant water tanks. They might have some importance and could have been the target of this shell.

24E) Hermana Tytova Ave

https://twitter.com/lnedos/status/1606715318084182016

"Photos: crater from a rocket that hit the driveway of Donetsk Railway Union's Hospital."

Two different craters shown. That place description didn't bring me anywhere on Google Maps.

Both photos also here https://t.me/dnronline/88456

same scene in this video https://t.me/nm_dnr/9645

The first view can be located on Hermana Tytova Ave near the intersection with Schorsa street. Coordinates 48.018918,37.7953776 - view faces northeast - fence with concrete posts is on the south side - not 100% sure it's this spot, but it has trees and a gazebo. Direction: unclear, but I'll venture there's a bit more displacement to the right and away from the camera. The street runs to the northeast and the trajectory is somewhat perpendicular, or from the northwest. The away bit would make it more from the WNW. But again, it's not very clear at this point.


24F, G) 100A Universytets'ka St

I put out a geolocation request for some related scenes, to share the fun, and Val had some great videos to set the scene for at least 4 of them. 

https://twitter.com/Val85960950/status/1609253925424594944

https://twitter.com/Val85960950/status/1609256251363364868

https://twitter.com/Val85960950/status/1609261571225550850

and one of The Czech MRLS involved (pulled out of 100A).

https://twitter.com/Val85960950/status/1609262001208938496

"100A" appears on the building at right. See the fragmentation marks at right, angling up to the left before the wall is all blown-in (so the shell came partly from the right). Other photos show the rocket tube sticking out of rubble inside this hole. 

Just southwest of Donetsk City mall, 100A Universytetska is unlabeled on Google Maps but behind 100, between Universytetska and Shchorsa Streets - grid: 48.0276168,37.7878383 - a tall and long apartment block. The views aren't the best, but it seems there is a low structure on the east (ENE) corner with another structure nearby to fit the two impacts seen there. 

100A, north wall hit ...
Shed nearby ... 

24 H, I) Shops on Universytets'ka St

24H: Across from Hercules-Moloko

24I: shops at 95E

Note: 24G is misplaced here, correct above


24I frag pattern
Wherever exactly that arc has its peak, traced back to the crater, is its trajectory.
That's about the same as suggested by the splash pattern, but this is clearer - aiming a little further down the block, from the west-northwest.

24J) Roof impact at 120 Artema st.

I'm not 100% sure, but this damaged roof seems to face west onto the area discussed above. Direction of fire not clear but probably partly from the west. 


24 E-J mapped together, trajectory range traced out. 

K) Donetsk City 
Unclear roof impact, seen from the inside - link temp. lost but will add w/notes. 

24L) Kindergarten no. 151
74A Universytets'ka St. - 48.0208087,37.7944567

https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61189

Nursery garden No. 151 in the Kiev region received a direct hit during the evening shelling
 
The Kyiv regime continues the terror of the civilian population of Donbass, destroying the civilian infrastructure of the city. Yesterday, December 24, during the evening shelling, in addition to two Donetsk hospitals, nursery garden No. 151 received a direct hit. The roof was destroyed, the ceiling of the second and first floors was broken, offices and window blocks were destroyed. The caretaker of the educational institution received a concussion.

Fixing the consequences of the shelling of the Kievsky district of Donetsk on 12/24/2022

❗️Military experts of the JCCC DPR confirmed the shelling of the Kyiv region with the use of the Grad MLRS, from their positions located in the area of ​​the settlement. Orlovka.

❗️Responsibility area of the 110th separate mechanized brigade (commander - Colonel Kurash Yevgeny Yuryevich, head of artillery - Lieutenant Colonel Tsiganyuk Dmitry Vasilyevich).

https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61214

more photos https://t.me/militarydonetsk/61223

Telegram: Contact @nm_dnr via https://twitter.com/MeridionaliAura/status/1607011325166714881

Damage analysis: rocket punched through the inner roof on the south side (red circle) after hitting the outer roof - I think - somewhere on the same side (red box). Roof timbers seem blown out more to the south. Debris spreads both north and south on a similar scale, but more heavily to the south. In general, the shell came in perpendicular to the building, which faces north-northwest. It could be from a bit left or right of straight in. I couldn't say except that left (northwest) has a lot of precedent now.


24M, N) Behind 95E University st.

Somewhere probably near 24E-24J, an electric utility building or some such was damaged on its corner. I haven't located this yet, but would like to. Photo source: https://t.me/dnronline/88450


Video that will probably allow placement: https://t.me/izvestia/116461

But it was another photo held the key to this spot. A view of another impact closer to that gray building includes a partial splash pattern in the brittle concrete, suggesting the view faces south. And there, we see a big garage in the foreground, with a distant building seen next to it. The building is distinct and located on Universytets'ka St. at: 48.0267747,37.7899605. 

Tracing the line of sight north of that building, the 3 towers come quickly, but they aren't visible here, so is it that close? A long building with two ridges like this - which I checkd for in remote industrial areas - is the less-slick backside of 95E Universytets'ka - impact 24I was in front of it, and this one is behind it. 



The giant garage and nice arches south both go with the towers, just off-frame on the left. By this half-splash and the basic angle of the engine remnant, this rocket too came from the northwest.  And another one hit alongside the electric utility shed a bit northeast of that. I'd say the ground there was hit, blowing in the doors and punching back out of the upper wall. That doesn't fit especially with a SE trajectory, but it fits well with being right at the omnidirectional blast, and I guess with the design.


Others:

A few impacts that could be geolocated

https://t.me/dnronline/88456
Hospital impacts, interior views, 2 other craters I don't know, probably cannot be located just from the photos.

10:44 pm https://t.me/nm_dnr/9645
Ukrainian militants hit Donetsk hospitals again with Grad missiles On December 24, Ukrainian militants launched another strike from the Grad MLRS in the center of Donetsk. Residential areas, the Road Clinical Hospital and the Republican Traumatology Center were hit.
Video - large crater - might be one in photos, and help place it

https://t.me/nm_dnr/9642
video of unclear damage, including photo scenes - could be geolocated

Reports: 

9:44 pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12420 

Eyewitnesses report a fire in a private house as a result of the shelling of the Petrovsky district.

10:27 pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12421 

As a result of the shelling of the Kyiv region, a girl born in 2015 was wounded.

review 12/25 8:12 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12422
Continues to receive information about the consequences of the evening shelling of the Kyiv region by Ukrainian punishers.

🏠So the damage was received: the administrative building on the street. University (direct hit), apartment buildings on the street. Universitetskaya, Shchors and Titov Ave. (window glazing was broken, facades were cut).

Data on the consequences of shelling continue to come in.

Checking posts all day, 57 artillery shells counted 24 December

23 December 

23A) Around Donetsk City on Artema street

10:00 pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12402

According to eyewitnesses, one of the enemy missiles hit the intersection of st. Artem and Tamansky prospect. Damaged windows in houses and nearby shops.

10:42 pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12403

According to updated information, as a result of the shelling of the Kievsky district at 20:40, 5 multi-apartment residential buildings on the street were damaged. Artem and Universitetskaya, the building of the Donetsk-City store and 3 cars.

10:41 pm https://t.me/dnronline/88437

📸 The consequences of shelling by Ukrainian militants of the Kyiv region of Donetsk

Location: The one photo shows Artema st. at Tamansky, just south of Donetsk City with its distinctive curved facade. The shops just south look the same from 2011. 48.0304584,37.7900659. 

The street runs a by north of northwest here, but the splash pattern is clear in showing an origin west of that. This traces out to Pervomais'ke and Netailove.
https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1609218474571894785
The fragments from this are seen on the dental clinic across the street 

https://t.me/dnronline/88437

Artema st. impact, at least 2 others w/2+ rocket tubes, other scenes that could be geolocated. Here's one that a later find might place just off Artema street at 48.0346775,37.7836327.

Reports:

9:02 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12373

As a result of yesterday's shelling of the Kuibyshev region, a woman born in 1946 died. Death occurred before the arrival of the ambulance.

8:27 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12372 

In the morning, the Nazis began shelling our city. At 08:00, 5 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired from Netailovo in the Kuibyshev region. At 08:05, 4 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired from positions in Krasnogorovka in the Petrovsky district. Take care of yourself. If possible, stay at home. The shelling of the city can resume at any moment!

9:42 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12374

At 09:30 shelling of the Kyiv region from the VFU was recorded. Four shells of 155 mm caliber were fired from Orlovka at peaceful quarters, according to the JCCC.

10:11 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12375

The shelling of the Kuibyshev region continues. At 08:40, 09:40 and 10:00, 16 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired from Netaylovo.

10:27 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12376

The fire from the VFU does not subside. From positions in Krasnogorovka, 6 shells of 155 mm caliber and 6 rockets from MLRS were fired in the Petrovsky district.

12:37 pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12377

Under the shelling of the Nazis again Petrovsky district. At 12:20, 5 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired from Krasnogorovka in the Petrovsky district.

1:23 pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12378

At 13:05, the Kuibyshev and Kyiv regions were under fire from the Nazis. From Netaylovo, 5 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired at peaceful quarters.

3:02 pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12379

The Kirovsky district of Donetsk is again under fire from the Ukrainian Nazis. At 14:50 from the village of Orlovka they fired 6 rockets from a multiple launch rocket system.

3:35 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12380

The long-suffering Petrovsky district of Donetsk is again under shelling. At 15:25, from the settlement of Krasnogorovka, Ukrainian fascists fired 6 rockets at civilians from a multiple launch rocket system.

4:20 pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12382

Ukrainian punishers fired at the Kyiv region of the city. From the settlement of Orlovka at 16:00 4 shells with a caliber of 155 mm were fired.

4:38 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12383

The Petrovsky district was again fired from multiple rocket launchers. Over the past 15 minutes, 12 rockets have been fired at civilians. The enemy is firing from Krasnogorovka.

5:46pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12384

Kyiv and Kuibyshevsky districts of Donetsk are again under enemy fire. From Netaylovo, 7 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired at civilians of the city.

6:45 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12385

As a result of the shelling of the Petrovsky district this afternoon, 12 private sector houses were partially destroyed. Roofs were damaged, walls, garages and outbuildings, fences, gates, entrance doors were cut by shrapnel, window glazing was broken. 2 cars were also damaged.

In addition, the Cosmos garage cooperative received damage.

7:32 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12395

As a result of the shelling of the Kyiv region, 2 multi-apartment residential buildings were damaged tonight. In one of the houses, the roof was damaged, the facade and entrance doors were cut with shrapnel, the windows were broken. In the second case, the windows were smashed and the front door was damaged.

7:54 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12396

Kyiv and Kuibyshev regions again came under enemy fire. At 19:30, Ukrainian fascists fired 6 shells of 155 mm caliber from Netaylovo.

8:11 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12397

The enemy continues to shell the Kyiv and Kuibyshev regions. At 19:55 another 5 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired from Netaylovo.

8:23 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12398

At 20:10, Ukrainian fascists fired at Petrovsky and Kirovsky districts of Donetsk from Krasnogorovka. 5 155 mm NATO projectiles were fired at civilians.

8:47 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12399

Ukrainian fascists opened fire on the Kyiv region using multiple launch rocket systems. 15 rockets were fired at civilians.

8:56 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12400

As a result of damage to the Zasyadko main line, 16,000 subscribers were left without power supply.

9:53 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12401

Information about the consequences of the shelling of the Kyiv region from multiple rocket launchers begins to arrive. According to eyewitnesses, a rocket crater remained near the dentistry building on the street. Artem, the windows in nearby houses were damaged. In addition, according to local residents, one of the rockets hit the roof of a residential building on the street. Artem, it is reported about arrivals on the territory of the kindergarten on the street. University.

The information is being specified. Data on the consequences of shelling continues to flow.

Total counted shells December 23: 111

12/24 8:29 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12404 "According to updated information, as a result of yesterday's evening shelling of the Kiesky district on the street. Universitetskaya suffered a child - a girl born in 2016. and her mother born in 1983.": (Suffered" apparently means injured, not killed.)

22 December

22B) School no. 107

11:39 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12348

The consequences of the shelling of school 107. Petrovsky district.

47.9475697,37.601054 - just west of impact 20A - north face seen, apparently damaged. Impact probably from partly north. 

Reports:

8:48 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12337

The shelling of the Petrovsky district began. According to the JCCC, at 08:34, 5 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired from Krasnogorovka

9:40 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12345

The shelling of the Kyiv and Kuibyshev regions began. The JCCC reports that at 9:17 a.m. 5 shells with a caliber of 155 mm were fired at the settlement of Netaylovo.

10:23 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12346

The Ukronazis again shelled the Petrovsky district. According to the JCCC, at 10:15 four 155 mm shells were fired from Krasnogorovka.

11:15 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12347

Terrorists from Ukraine released at 11:00 on the territory of the Petrovsky district from positions in n. Georgievka settlement 8 missiles from the MLRS.

As a result of the last shelling (https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12346) of the Petrovsky district, a direct hit on the wall of the Galaktika shopping center occurred, cars were damaged in the parking lot. The information is being specified.

1:17 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12350

The shelling of the Kirov region continues. At 13:00, 5 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired at residential areas.

1:47 pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12351

The shelling of the Kirov region continues. At 13:00, 5 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired at residential areas.

2:00 pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12354

At 13:48, the shelling of the northern districts of the city resumed: 5 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired at the Kyiv and Kuibyshev districts.

2:02 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12355

In the Petrovsky district at 13:53, 10 rockets were fired from the MLRS from the positions of the Nazis in Georgievka.

2:18 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12356

The shells of the Nazis continue to land in the Kuibyshev region. At 14:08 VFU fired 3 more shells of 155 mm caliber. Eyewitnesses report arrivals in the Topaz area.

3:01 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12357

Shelling of areas of Donetsk does not stop. At 14:47, 5 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired from Krasnogorovka in the Petrovsky district.

3:33 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12358

The Nazis continue to damage the infrastructure of the city with aimed fire. At 15:08 from N. p. Krasnogorovka fired 6 shells of 155 mm caliber in the Petrovsky district. At 15:24 from N. p. Netailovo fired 3 shells of 155 mm caliber in the Kuibyshev region.

3:41 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12359

At 15:30, 8 rockets from the MLRS landed in the Kuibyshev region, according to the DPR JCCC.

3:51 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12360

3:59 pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12361

The shelling of the city continues

At 15:30, 8 rockets were fired from the MLRS in the Kuibyshev region;

At 15:42, 4 shells with a caliber of 155 mm were fired at the Petrovsky district.

Total 81 shells counted

9:39 PM https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12370

As a result of the shelling of the Kuibyshev district in the village of Oktyabrsky mine, a private sector house was damaged, a fire broke out. 🚒According to preliminary data, a civilian was injured. Personal information is set.

21 December

21 A-C) Artillery Assassination Attempt at Shesh-Besh 

The famous event was an assassination attempt on the DPR's prime minister Vitaly Khotsenko and the former director of Russia's space program Dmitry Rogozin at the latter's birthday celebration at a resort just south of Donetsk. Both men were injured, the latter seriously (reportedly losing his penis), a bodyguard was killed, both their wives were injured. The mayor of Gorlovka Ivan Prikhodko was among others injured, and there was at least one other fatality. This got its own post, but not the best one, and hardly anyone contests that Ukraine did this. So FWIW Monitor on Massacre Marketing: "Shesh-Besh" Strike in Donetsk. I could say there was one impact into the restaurant's roof/upper floor, west side, apparently from the northwest. Another hit the ground floor on the west side, apparently from the southwest (but neither direction call is very certain). This impact is the one known to have wounded and killed people. To update - a third impact to the lodgings just south of the restaurant came from the west or maybe southwest.

21B) Residences around Artema street 

9:28 am  https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12338 

"Consequences of the shelling of the Kyiv region." Photos. Location: Artema 116 displays its address - location 48.0281631,37.7918877 - 2011 street view of building and surroundings looks much different, but consistent. - minor impact into roofline at northwest end = probably from the northwest. I sense a little right-to-left trend, meaning a bit more from the west of NW, or WNW.

Other scenes are included with taller buildings, a playground, that are harder to find.  I haven't really tried yet.

Others, reports

10:35 AM https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12300

"The consequences of the night shelling of the Proletarsky district." damaged building photos. (not geolocated - no analysis)

10:43 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12307

At 09:00, shelling of the territory of the Kievsky district was recorded from the positions of the VFU in Orlovka: 3 shells with a caliber of 155 mm were fired.

Nazi shells damaged the glazing, facade and fence of a private household.

12/21 https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12308

Attention! On st. Biryuzov in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk, petal mines were discovered. Be careful! Look under your feet!"

That street is in the far western outskirts, near Marinka - nothing geolocated - possible stock photo.

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12331 

💥 Ukrainian punishers hit the Kyiv, Voroshilovsky and Kalininsky regions. At 20:07 from n. Orlovka village, 12 rockets were fired from the MLRS.

💥 Eyewitnesses report arrivals along Titov Ave., near Shakhtar Plaza, Donetsk City, RSK Olimpiyskiy. The information is being specified.

‼️ Don't leave your hiding places! Shooting can be repeated!

9:33 pm https://t.me/dnronline/88297

Consequences of shelling by Ukrainian militants of the Kyiv region of Donetsk

Could be geolocated, but hasn't been done yet

9:41 pm https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12334

According to updated information, as a result of the shelling of the Kievsky district, the glazing was damaged in 5 apartment buildings, as well as in the administrative building and the pumping station of the State Unitary Enterprise of the DPR "Water of Donbass". Cars were also damaged.

20 December

20A) Petrovskaya apartment Block 

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12291

As a result of the shelling of the Petrovsky district at 14:50 on the street. Architects damaged the boiler room: damaged glazing, gas pipe, boilers.

In a multi-apartment residential building, the roof was destroyed, the balcony, the elevator control room and the dryer on the 9th floor were damaged.

3:17 PM https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12288 "Consequences of the shelling of the Petrovsky district: the Petrovskaya mine." Photos. Geolocated from view of big 3-peaked mound - facing north in the afternoon. At 47°56'51.71"N  37°36'22.68"E is a large apartment block with the right shape and view, ten stories high, I think. Roof structure impacted on its west-facing side, and hit well from north of straight in = northwest. Just to the southeast and much lower: a likely heating plant with smokestack - the likely intended target. Another shell may have hit it: a "boiler room" was also damaged. 


If this sets the trajectory, it's roughly 290-292 degrees to the firing position, That swathe includes areas just south and west of Krasnohorivka and further out Kurakhivka - somewhere just a bit further out than they realized. Kulemzin: "At 16:40 Nazi fire fell on the Petrovsky district. Three shells of 155 mm caliber were fired from Krasnogorovka."

20B) Kindergarten No. 405

Kulemzin 9:57 am: "Consequences of the shelling of the Kalinin region. Kindergarten No. 405." Map labels bring me to 47.9996064,37.8284577 just south of Kalinin hospital - from there, not sure what spots were hit from where.

20C, D) Kuibyshivs'kyi district 

video: https://twitter.com/Royston1983/status/1605311431603544064 

Kuibyshivs'kyi district - apt. building and nearby school 52 lightly damaged (maybe 2 strikes) - school just west of 48.0118231,37.7391329 - apt. building may be the one 2 buildings north of here. Impact details not clear. I have some images, but they don't say much. Let's skip them.

Others:

https://twitter.com/PLnewstoday/status/1605251934604169219

My wife's nephew showing the damage done by Ukraine rocket attacks to the social housing he lives in center Donetsk. He, his sister and parents live there as their home was destroyed long ago by Ukrainian shelling. Now they are  no longer safe there

19 December

19A) Kalinin Hospital building 10

building 10, courtyard https://twitter.com/RuptlyNews/status/1605194054467297281

https://t.me/wargonzo/9900  12/19 11:19 PM

⚡️Video⚡️Neo-Nazis of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the Kalinin hospital again⚡️ Special inclusion of the military correspondent of the @wargonzo project Dmitry Seleznev (https://t.me/oldminerkomi) together with the doctor and deputy of the State Duma Badma Bashankaev (https://t.me/Bashankaev) from the hospital town, which was subjected to a powerful rocket attack by the artillery of Ukrainian militants . Dmitry Gartsev, Minister of Health of the DPR, arrived on the scene and gave an exclusive comment to the @wargonzo project.

https://twitter.com/elskorpione/status/1605356297641000960

https://twitter.com/vicktop555/status/1605092750696783872

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1605083092892491776

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12263

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12264

https://t.me/dnronline/88125

https://t.me/dnronline/88130

https://twitter.com/MeridionaliAura/status/1605273126912270380

Found by prior location, labels, confirmed by video-satellite view correlation. Coordinates: 48.0023954,37.8256657

Analysis: a hole punched in the west-facing side, taking out five windows and all between on the 2nd and 3rd floors, maybe into the floor slab between, with some force blowing through the next wall on the 3rd floor into the hallway, through various windows into the courtyard at building's center, causing light damage all around. The angle appears to be close to straight in from the west, maybe a bit from the north or south. The damage to the courtyard's opposite wall extends a ways to the left (north) but seems to extend higher to the right, at the south corner, and higher yet on the north-facing wall to the right. That will include deflection after impact, but might suggest a slight northwest trend. Either way, "west" is about right. That's not very exact, and includes Russian-held territory to about 20-22km out. From there it's Ukrainian.

19B) Red Cross center

https://twitter.com/WendyFleury4/status/1605303105817808897

"Shocked by the shelling of our office and strike on a hospital in Donetsk yesterday. No ICRC staff was injured but two patients died in the strike. The ICRC calls for the strict respect of IHL. As per the Geneva Conventions the sick and wounded may not be the object of attacks"

https://twitter.com/gchahal/status/1605157588764545024

photo of damage inside - located a ways south of the Kalinin hospital - building's major side faces north. That's all I can say.

International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) - Sub-Delegation - Google Maps

19C) "Building No. 8 DonNU"

9:14 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12201 "Consequences of the shelling of the Kyiv region. Chelyuskintsev street, building No. 8 DonNU." Photo. Location: 48.0180921,37.8059276 on Chelyuskintsiv St. - sidewalk near north end. Direction unclear except probably from some northern direction; debris spread a bit south and west, after some probably larger spread to the east has been cleaned up to uncover the trolley tracks.

19D) Prospect Vatutin. Roof hit

9:04 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12189?single "Prospect Vatutin. Roof hit." Photos. Location from match found on street: 48.0148372,37.8065264 (north side of street). Damage unclear - a hit on the roof can come from any direction.

19E) Olympic Stadium East parking lot

9:57 am  https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12217?single 

"Consequences of the shelling of the Kyiv region. RSK "Olympic", Chelyuskintsev street." Photos. 

https://twitter.com/IntelDonets/status/1604647731641085952 (damaged seats)

One impact at the entrance to the stadium, edge of the raised area, knocking some material down into the parking lot, and damaging a sign. Debris spread is greater along the stairs, presumably limited by them. I propose that's because the open side of the crater, held in only by a wall, is the one that gave out, as it would be from probably any angle of impact. But it should probably spread a bit more to the south if it came much from the north. May be more west than I drew below, or really from almost any direction. Not clear. 


19F) Olympic Stadium seating area 
At least one, probably 2+ impacts inside the stadium - one damaged seats, another with visible crater damaged some railing near the playing field. The latter view faces south, with debris spread and railing damage roughly to due south, or impact from almost due north. 

Add 12/30: This I first traced in orange. Best angle is NNE, tracing out towards famously-contested Bakhmut, some 60km out. That is a long ways. But then the tiles disappear under the snow, in a certain pattern, don't they? I traced this in hot pink. It could extend a bit further on the left here. That's probably the splash pattern, the under-back side of impact, and so this is from the northwest, either crossing above the fence, or along its curve. Not exact - maybe from a bit further north than shown.  
The blast would angle into the seats, probably causing the damage seen. See the low curved arc of frag marks on the concrete and the obliterated seats - the highest center of that (about seat 23), traced back to the crater, is the trajectory (or reverse azimuth). 
More than likely, the parking lot shell also came from this NW direction, which seemed about right anyway.

19G) "Refuge" at Appeals Court

12/19 9:03 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12179 "Consequences of the shelling of the Voroshilovsky region. Chelyuskintsev Street, near the Covered Market." Photos of a few locations on Chelyuskintsiv street.

At 48.0118255,37.8080616 is the building with pillared facade. 2011 street view has it labeled Donetsk court of appeals. That sign is gone in 2022. A DPR flag and a paper sign pointing to "УБЕЖЩИЕ" (REFUGE). Does that mean bomb shelter? Hopefully in the basement. The entrance was hit. A west-facing wall = hit partly from the west. Frag marks angle up to the right = partly from the north = northwest. pics f/c. 

2011 view:

A street shop w/broken windows is across the street, prob. damaged by this blast (magenta line on map).

19H) by "7корпус" (university) 

There was at least one impacts in the trees out front of the place too far north to connect to F).  48.0137193,37.8076879 - facade with peak labeled 1950, east-facing wall seen, but not impacted. Can't say much about the impact spot without seeing it clearly. Some photos may show the spent shell on the ground, but not in clear spatial context. Not much to show, then, but it's mapped here - red circle for approximate impact. 

Adding: the shell may have impacted the broken tree (red circle). The blown-out section of fence with tree branches piled against the fence nearby MIGHT represent a direction of greatest force (besides down). That's far from sure, but it points back to the northwest.


Others near the hospital but unplaced:

- Kalininskiy apatrtments - unplaced - corner impact from direction of the sun = probably southwest. https://twitter.com/Spriter0000/status/1605126811440005120

- crater by residential building, splash pattern outside shop "??? ТАМАРА" (Tamara) - not located, after some searching.

https://t.me/wargonzo/9899 12/19 11:50 PM

Neo-Nazis of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the Kalinin region with rocket artillery. The shell hit a residential building near the hospital campus.

short video of that scene: K Boz on Twitter - photo at right: https://t.me/dnronline/88130?single

The street here might run north-south or east west but not at an angle. That's almost 100% of the streets in Kalininsky. The trajectory suggested is some 45 degrees, so it can't be from due west. If it's northwest, this could only be on the east side of a north-south street. If it's any other angle, that would be odd.

- Near the Kalinin hospital in Donetsk, damaged by NATO/nazi shelling, garages were demolished, and the nature of the damage is atypical for conventional Grads, with ammunition penetrating a thick layer of ground and the blast knocking out sewer manholes.

https://twitter.com/ruskadevushka/status/1604964178036346880

others

19I) 9:33 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12214 "Consequences of the shelling of the Budyonnovsky district. Warehouses of a tobacco factory." Photos with no context.  

18 December

18A) Kalinin Hospital, Building 10

https://t.me/wargonzo/9876 12/18 8:33 PM


https://t.me/dnronline/88181 (video)

https://twitter.com/LoveOurTrump/status/1605084904235991041 (photos, 2nd hand)

The consequences of the ukrainian shelling in Donetsk at the Kalinin Hospital. @NBR_ DONETSK writes: The Department of Neurosurgery is on fire. On the 3rd floor, where the rocket hit, there is a children's department. A lot of wounded.

aftermath video, inside, beds and perhaps blood https://twitter.com/Bernade58733135/status/1604812237331259393

Patrick Lancaster News Today: Nurse about the shelling of the Kalinin hospital in Donetsk. Several patients got injured by the strike- Children, mothers, even those who couldn’t walk, went down to basement...

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday/1345

The mother of a 9-year-old girl who had an operation at the Kalinin Donetsk Hospital the day before, tells how she saved her child during today's Ukrainian shelling

https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1604635911450263552

https://twitter.com/NoisyLeon/status/1604945867919728659

investigating https://twitter.com/avia_pro/status/1604810775780007937

sec cam https://twitter.com/PrateekRoutray/status/1605005460477992960

interior video https://twitter.com/VSlajd/status/1604728311258791936 

https://twitter.com/SonjaEnde/status/1605132466452418561

Donetsk Neurosurgery Hospital after shelling. As I said before, the Ukrainian army or the AZOV of their militias, which are supported by the West and supplied with weapons by the West, continue to shell hospitals in the city of Donetsk!

https://twitter.com/JailletAlain/status/1605201230707294208

patients and casualties discussed - an injured soldier receiving treatment there was killed by the added injuries from this shelling. 

Location: 48.0031283,37.8233885. Geolocation verified - some features explained below. Also the distinctive entrance (blue) is visible in many images. A direct impact to the west (WSW) face means the munition was fired partly from the west (or WSW) - the blast force will be in all directions, so it's not certain which direction buckled that wall (green) a bit to the right, or south. But more than likely, that's somewhat the forward direction - it likely came a bit from the left or north of west.

18B) Near 18 A)

Another damaged area is shown and probably represents a second impact, but I haven't been able to place it yet or say where the impact point is. It looks like it should be the same building, but every spot that nearly matches doesn't quite seem to cut it.


18C) Building 6 roof 

Ukrainian troops shelled the Kalininsky district of Donetsk, the shells fell in the area of the Kalinin hospital and the medical university Eyewitnesses report a fire in the 6th building of the hospital. Kalinin. There is information about many wounded, the mayor of Donetsk.

https://twitter.com/DagnyTaggart963/status/1604531546668826626

The Department of Neurosurgery is on fire. On the 3rd floor, where the rocket hit, there is a children's department. A lot of wounded.

https://twitter.com/LoveOurTrump/status/1605084904235991041

Burning roof, night time video https://twitter.com/PrateekRoutray/status/1605005460477992960

Daylight aerial view of the same building and damage included in this video

https://twitter.com/ProfessorsBlogg/status/1605633288630042630

Location: not certain, but it's probably the southern building here at the hospital area's SW corner - at 48.0024691,37.8184117 - less damage and peeling on the north side suggests it came partly from the north. 


18D&E) Arena and stadium area, Kyivsky district 

9:53 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12113 

11:08 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12116 

Glass panes outside the arena broken from unseen impact(s) we can use to claim at least one roughly-placed impact B) - further out, an impact in the ground C) - just NE of the stadium facing southwest, exactly at this spot - gopher-hole impact not 100% clear but seems directed into this grass patch and a bit to the right = from the northwest.


18F) Donetsk administration building
12/19 10:30 am https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12239 "Consequences of yesterday's shelling of the Donetsk administration building." Photos. Location not certain, but likely at Asotsiatsiya Orhaniv Mistsevoho Samovryaduvannya Donetsʹkoyi Oblasti - Google Maps - impact angles not evident from interior views, but if that window faces north, and deflection aside, the impact is from the west-northwest. I don't know but I would bet that window faces north.

Some photos also here https://twitter.com/MeridionaliAura/status/1604854250152288256 

18G) Artema st. by Sky City

9:24 PM - https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday/1346

unclear impact near the curb, windows out on the tower, in some shops and residences just to the north of it.  Verified despite dyslexic cameraman (kidding - it's horizontally flipped, like many of Lancaster's videos). 

Kulemzin: https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/12193

Elimination of the consequences of the shelling of the Voroshilovsky district. Artyoma street, BC "Sky City" Photos: sidewalk impact black patch etends mainly to the east, with just a slight trend to the south = from the WNW. 

Others not located:

Restaurant

4:33 pm https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday/1340

#Breaking Ukraine is attacking center Donetsk again now . I'm on my way to report

6:15 pm https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday/1341

#Breaking Ukraine fires on center Donetsk again hitting and burning a restaurant near Donbass Arena. We we arrived on site With fire fighters Ukraine fired 2 my rockets. They hit 50-100 meters away  from me

8:38 https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday/1342

Restaurant in flames after Ukraine fires rockets on center Donetsk

Parking lot 

4:08 PM https://t.me/wargonzo/9871 

⚡️Video⚡️Donetsk. Parking lot on fire from MLRS hit⚡️

About 10 rockets fell into the area of the Embankment. The parking lot is on fire and firefighters are on the scene.

Donetsk. The parking lot is on fire from being hit by MLRS⚡️ About 10 rockets fell into the area of the Embankment. The parking lot is on fire and firefighters are on the scene.

5:32 PM  https://t.me/wargonzo/9874

Video⚡️Moment of re-arrival of MLRS next to journalists⚡️

Leaving the scene of the fire, which arose after MLRS missiles hit the parking lot near the embankment, journalists @wargonzo came under repeated fire. Rockets fell in the area of the Donbass Arena. Hearing the whistle, the correspondents fell to the asphalt. The missiles exploded 50-100 meters away.

Could be geolocated, but with no impacts seen, not worth the hassle.

8:49 pm https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday/1343

Main Street and low income housing hit again by Ukraine rocket attacks on center Donetsk

9:36 pm https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday/1344

The 7th building of Donetsk National University for the fourth time came under Ukrainian rocket fire in the center of Donetsk

17 December 

17A-B) Donetsk Arena

On the 18th, Donetsk mayor Aleksei Kulemzin would report "The consequences of yesterday's shelling of the Kyiv region." Photos: 2+ impacts around the Donetsk arena. These can be roughly geolocated as:

17A) south parking lot, rocket section apparently failed to embed and skidded ahead.

17B) a bench somewhere in this area - rocket hit the bench, engine embedded, pointing back to where it came from, which seems to match the pattern of darkened pavement.  

17C?) pavement to the west, around here, or maybe in the parking lot (maybe the same impact as A from another angle? Just to be safe, I won't count it)

All 3 (or both) indicate arrival from the northwest.

16 December 

5:15 PM https://t.me/wargonzo/9841

New GRAD attack on Donetsk⚡️ About 10 rockets fired by militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fell at the beginning of Mira Avenue in Donetsk. One of the rockets flew into an inactive boiler room. Windows were shattered in the apartments of a nearby building. At the place of arrival, employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations work. The terror of Donetsk continues.

Geolocation/analysis perhaps forthcoming (f/c)

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Who Was Behind the Christmas Eve Shelling of Kherson?

December 28, 2022

Mid-day on December 24, a suspected Russian shelling attack targeted last-minute Christmas shoppers in the  southern Ukrainian city of Kherson. Ten people were reportedly killed in central Kherson (6 others in the wider Kherson oblast), while 80 were seriously injured, including 10 who lost limbs. The ten killed may include, as UNIAN reports, "three employees of the State Emergency Service" who were killed while "demining the territory."

President Zelenskyy called the day's shelling on the Ukrainian-held but Russian-majority, recently liberated or temporarily occupied city, an act of "terror" and proof that Russia is "absolute evil." It wasn't the first or last day such attacks occurred. Iuliia Mendel - a former spokesperson for Zelenskyy - had already, on the 21st, compared the shelling to "torturing a hostage." 

There are of course counter-claims, if not from Russia itself then from supporters. Intel Republic on Telegram decried the "BRUTAL Ukrainian SAVAGE shelling of Kherson region (ex-Ukraine)." "As per tradition, Kiev blames Russia for the attack, despite evidence of fragments from US-supplied HIMARS multiple rocket launch system being found at the scene of their horrendous crime. " 

I'm skeptical of the HIMARS claim, but let's consider that either side could, hypothetically, be responsible.

Kherson vs. Donetsk and Motive

The alleged Russian motive is to punish people of Kherson for rejecting their authority. This is the same basic motive I see behind Ukraine's shelling of Donetsk, a recurring Russian gripe, recently sharpened with some of the worst shelling ever - Kherson could be seen as Putin's Christmas Eve revenge for Donetsk. 

But there are differences. Kherson is Russian-majority and its populace, on balance, doesn't reject Russian control so much as it suffers occupation. There's little motive to punish them for what's beyond their control. 

In contrast, the people of Donetsk are even more Russian to the point they successfully voted to secede from Ukraine back in 2014, and were able to enforce that militarily. They have, in fact, rejected Kyiv's rule, and many of us suspect the years of shelling is part of Ukraine's punishment for this. 

Motive for false-flag: as always, both sides could use this to demonize their enemy, at least to their own favorable audiences. Russia could convince Russians, the Chinese, etc. and some minds all over. Ukraine ... well, "the whole world" tries to "stand with them" and accept every accusation they level against the evil Russians. 

I don't mean to minimize the horror of what's been happening in Kherson or in other cities under Russian attack, real or alleged., but we also shouldn't allow it to minimize or excuse the ongoing shelling of Donetsk and other cities under Ukrainian assault. What keeps happening daily or almost hourly in Donetsk is state-sponsored terrorism by the Western-backed forces of the Maidan Junta in Kyiv. Artillery shells and rockets hit homes, but mainly streets, schools, the water system, heating plants, hospitals, churches, public markets, public transit, government officials, centers of administration and emergency response, and symbols of Russian culture. 

Kyiv has the audacity to say - for almost nine years running - that they aren't doing this - it's either made up or when proven, the Russians or the DPR are shelling their own over & over, vainly trying to make Ukraine look bad. But my ballistic analysis of shelling in September and December (week 1, week 2, week 3) - amateur but sound - proves in spades that shelling is coming from the direction of Ukrainian-held areas mainly to the northwest, and sometimes the west, southwest, or north. Repeated claims the fire comes from the Russian-held east fall apart on analysis (some examples in the above links).

They don't deny the December 21 artillery assassination attempt on the DPR's Prime Minister and Russia's former space chief, But they deny, for example, two recent attacks on a central church (both from the NW), at least 5 recent attacks on hospitals (from various directions), and September attacks on a bus stop and a bus that killed 13 and 6, respectively. 

After the heaviest shelling since 2014 occurred on 15 December, with some 40 rockets raining down on central Donetsk, Kyiv's denials were still widely accepted, but running a bit thin. 

I suspect some of Ukraine's nastier and Nazier elements pulled off most or all of the recent attacks on Kherson. They know what they do in Donetsk and other places, and they dished out some of it on their own Russian-majority cities, to improve the city-shelling PR situation and secure some blank checks to continue terrorizing those beyond their authority. And all it would cost is some hassle and some ethnic Russians they never liked to begin with.

If so, they succeeded in capturing the West's attention and negating any worry that might emerge over the same terrorism persisting in Donetsk that has by now claimed thousands of lives taken and tens of thousands scarred.

Fire from the Russian-Controlled Southeast

It's important to be aligned with the facts, and while I SUSPECT Ukraine, the facts aren't convenient to that. The same analysis I've used in Mariupol - albeit on just 3 impacts - suggests the shelling of Kherson was done from the Russian-controlled southeast. 

https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1606654653491732481

Putin's Christmas Eve revenge for Donetsk in Kherson ... such a bad idea FOR THEM, good for "partisans." Terror shelling of cities finally gets major western news. Meant to blame on others, for such a big deal they might do it behind enemy lines for once. So far I see from SE..." The basic idea is here sketched on a map cropped from ISW. Typo: SW meaning SE. 


One critical analysis identifies some of the damage to read - the "splash" pattern of explosive fragments on the pavement. But they read it backwards - as is easy enough to do - , finding the shells came from the Ukrainian-held northeast. What's the Media Hiding? on Twitter.

"The source of today’s massacre of civilians in Kherson has been geolocated to Ukrainian territory. The funnel was cleaned, but not the fragments on the asphalt, which paint a crystal clear trajectory. Nothing to add - another shameless Ukrainian atrocity for propaganda."


Others including the widely-read Readovka, reached the same conclusion, a bit too quickly, on the 24th: https://t.me/readovkanews/49577

The locations were good, done by others, the street directions were known, and indeed the pattern and suggested line was plain as day.  What got too tricky was which direction on that line the shell traveled. To be fair, the debris spread ("funnel") was unclear, partly swept up. This prevented (or just muted?) a visual contradiction that might have prevented this embarrassment.

Here, I'll share the visual explanation for my findings, very briefly as I have on Twitter. Modified from some manual I forget, a side view to explain why the back/under side is whare the pavement gets scraped up in a radial pattern. Ahead, you'll see no pavement markings - blast & frags spread higher & wider into buildings, vehicles or people. The point was never to scar some pavement.



Therefore, as some other manual explains, using an example from Donetsk...

Other clues to read that follow on the same principles: damage ahead of the impact will be the highest - fragments hitting a wall will form a band perpendicular to the incoming angle, so the upslope means forward. I haven't noticed much for angled wall damage (some suggested with impact B), and cars are too mobile to bother with. But general high damage ahead matters in 2 of the Kherson examples. 

All 3 in order of clarity:

A) Rishelievska St 

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1607397983263522818

Coordinates: 46.637122, 32.608573

Agreed like everyone this is the spot. The clear photo faces local north (NNW). up the street.

likely the crater seen at the end https://twitter.com/YelchenkoUN/status/1606615691246854144

crater photo https://twitter.com/AdrianaMatsibon/status/1606657575356874753

B) Ushakova Ave 

https://twitter.com/kargolow/status/1606590188821553152 - 

splash pattern partly visible - enough to be readable as consistent with the damage we see on both the south (SSE) and east (ENE) faces of the Tsum shop ahead.


likely the crater seen at the start - a video shows this one has a remnant that size stuck in it. https://twitter.com/YelchenkoUN/status/1606615691246854144

Clear pattern, but not so clear meaning as to directions (no visual context) - from this, we can only say the sun comes mostly from the south (videos around mid-day) and the pattern points back well east of that = probably some southeast angle.


C) Street Hvardiis'koi Dyvizii, 49-yi

NEXTA on Twitter 

https://twitter.com/Steven681982/status/1606616027487428609

Seems like a pretty good match, but in a different part of town, some ways northeast of the other 2 impacts. Coordinates: 46.671765, 32.614988

South (SSE) face impacted, partly from the south. I'd say the balcony damage on both sides is more-or-less the force to each side. It's hard to compare them, with different materials involved. Therefore, the shell might have come straight in, a bit from the left, or a bit from the right. Local street angle is the same, shared by the building, so this is roughly up-the-street SE-NW, just like the other 2. I probably didn't need to set the range this wide.


FWIW, all 3 on one map - the one line and the minimum of both ranges intersect nicely at Solontsil, but that can't be read too literally. The line should be a range, and all ranges are approximate. I'd say the pink area is most likely where the launches occurred, but somewhere further south or a bit to the east or west is also likely. I don't know anything about the area, where partisan false-flaggers make more or less sense. And I certainly can't rule out that the Russians really are doing this, whatever tjeir reason. Either way, whoever is doing this needs to be stopped and exposed. 


Back in Context

I wouldn't expect to change the minds of those who blame Russia, even without the ballistic evidence. WITH it, I'd say your average, somewhat brainwashed yet rational person SHOULD blame Russia. It would be very weird to do otherwise. 

But I know too much to be that normal, Weapon used and area of use are both great clues, but not as 100% conclusive as people act. Even if HIMARS was used, it could be Russians with a stolen unit. But then firing from their area, even with uniquely Russian weapons, could potentially be done by infiltrators with stolen weapons.This isn't the usual assumption or an inherently strong point to start at. But here there may be adequate reason - for a deadly Christmas Eve false-flag attack that makes a new uproar against Russia or helps deafen ears to the Kyiv's ongoing crimes - perhaps including this.  

I acknowledge it's entirely POSSIBLE the Russians are behind this terror shelling of Kherson just for falling back into Ukrainian hands. Considering my findings, I doubt the claim less than I usually would. But even with the ballistic evidence, this is not terribly logical. It would be like DPR forces actually firing ~100 grad rockets into the Russian-majority Vostochniy district of Mariupol on January 24, 2015. That was alleged by Ukraine and widely accepted, but I for one never bought the story and suspect Ukraine got away with a flase-flag artillery massacre. 

Like Donetsk, Mariupol was Russian-majority, had voted to Secede, but then in the summer of 2014 came under Ukrainian  military occupation by "punishers" led by the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion. By January, DPR forces were making progress to the south and had promised to soon "liberate" Mariupol, starting with the highly-sympathetic Vostochniy district. Ukraine presented this rocket attack as the fulfillment of that promise. They fired literally about 100 rockets, from at least 3 directions, coordinated in the span of one minute. They were allegedly trying to hit a Ukrainian army checkpoint at the district's north edge, but all 100 rockets, fired by at least two teams, missed it by 500m-2.5km, instead tearing up homes, shops, and people all across the district, north-to-south and east-to-west. Over 30 people, including known, vocal DPR supporters, were killed, and hundreds were injured. (re-addressed here in light of the city's delayed liberation, with Russian help but with much violence, in 2022)

This is where I first learned ballistic analysis, locating and analyzing rocket impacts looking for fire from Ukrainian areas. It never materialized; like the OSCE inspectors, I saw fire from the northeast and the east - DPR-controlled or areas, but potentially porous. I also caught examples of shells from the ESE and maybe south, which were both murkier, largely contested. But valuable as it was, to my mind, ballistic analysis was not key in that case. Motive factored so strongly for Kyiv's forces that I have to suspect - and strongly - that they got a few teams snuck behind enemy lines to demonize the impending DPR liberation. What Mendel compared to "torturing a hostage" in Kherson was in Mariupol more like shooting a hostage in the leg when their liberators get too close. 

I suspect Kherson is another example of this advanced false-flag tactic. And so far, it seems like just one team with one launcher might be responsible. That's even more plausible than my Mariupol conspiracy theory. A Christmas Eve massacre of innocents to blame on Putin seems special enough reason to venture such a move. I suspect it happened, and if so, there will be evidence for it. I hope to see this emerge soon.