Warning

Warning: This site contains images and graphic descriptions of extreme violence and/or its effects. It's not as bad as it could be, but is meant to be shocking. Readers should be 18+ or a mature 17 or so. There is also some foul language occasionally, and potential for general upsetting of comforting conventional wisdom. Please view with discretion.

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

More COVID19 Curves

May 19, 2020
incomplete

More COVID19 graphics, later in the game with a clearer picture now. They were all new when I took a bunch of screen-grabs a few days ago, on May 15. These are just to show the curves, especially of new cases, not the sheer numbers or timescale, nor to class lockdown (yes, no, type, compliance), nor to claim completeness of data (all should be at-least numbers, with unverified cases varying from few to several times the confirmed number. All of these employ some kind of limits on the virus' spread, most of them known or presumed to be in some degree of "lockdown,"but with varying strictness and compliance. Don't take this as showing what doesn't work - but they can help get some idea.

Some graph about like unchecked exponential growth of any virus - this will eventually reach so many it will start finding less hosts and level off. But in this case, it has a long way to go, and there will be a lot of deaths and crippling illness in the meantime. But even in these actual examples, growth is moderated by at least some measures - otherwise the curve would have a sharper, earlier rise to a significantly higher number than anything seen.


more explanation tomorrow...

Brazil: mostly local distancing and lockdown orders, only frustrated by national government - perhaps fastest growth of new cases and deaths in the world:

https://www.bing.com/covid/local/brazil?vert=graph
The rest follow the same format: orange line represents new (confirmed) cases, while the gray line show related fatalities, coming out far lower, naturally, on the same scale.

Others look similar despite tying not to. Take India - strong efforts at lockdown measures, but violently challenged in many areas, especially rural ones. This is a bad pattern playing out in a good chunk of the world's population, but so far, confirmed deaths aren't that bad:

People's Republic of China: a good pattern playing out on a bigger chunk of the world's people. The archetype of virus spread halted to nearly absolute zero, after absorbing the worst surprise attack on everyone suffered by any nation. This holds, and protects some 1/6 of the world's population. That's good news in itself. Notes: the sharp rise in cases (orange line) before the flattening is probably a big batch of existing cases they confirmed at once upon wider testing - a late bump in the fatalities line is adding 1,290 prior deaths in Wuhan left un-counted 'til then - not a spike of new deaths. The had reached zero on most days well before then. There's been just one fatality added in nearly a month since then. Out of 1.3 billion people. That's effective zero, on an extremely relevant battle front.


Belarus: a famously non-lockdown nation, with likely mass under-reporting of cases, and suspiciously low death toll compared even to reported cases:

Belgium: maybe the world's highest per-capita death rate (see fat gray curve), perhaps inspiring the measures and compliance causing this near-approach with horizontal zero growth.

Canada: 

Cuba: in on the Bill Gates-NWO lockdown plot?

Germany:



Ghana: (added 5-20)

Iran: in on the Bill Gates-WHO plot? Good early containment with lockdown type measures, but never flattened, still slow-to-mid boiling cases and deaths, maybe deemed tolerable. Not clear on current policy or situation. Sanctions couldn't help the epidemic, but may have had little direct effect - people can keep 6 feet apart for free. But the economy may have to be extra self-healing, extra-compelled to limit the costs of lockdown and walk a fine line between letting the virus rage like it wants to and letting it cripple their economy. They'll continue to reject both options.

Iraq: on this issue, it seems/I guess Iraq is a luckier but lazier Iran, with a steeper climb, probably with less shielding of the most vulnerable, less capability to save the hardest-hit, a higher proportion dying, but a lower proportion of those reported.

Israel: subjecting their chosen people to disaster via needless lockdown? Whatever they did, looks like it's about done - for the time being at least. Do they learn from cautionary tales like Iran? Will we hear about their hopelessly trashed economy now, or not?

Italy: (added 5-20)

Japan: (added 5-20)

Netherlands:

New Zealand: this is effective zero, on a less crucial and less representative battlefront. They must have had good starting luck and used early containment measures, besides the lockdown they added to possibly overdo it. High confirmation found less than 1,500 infections out of 4.8 million people. There may have been three times that, but they didn't herd-immunity saturate the place. The vulnerable to protect were defined well broadly, and protected - unless 21 dead as an apparent final answer is a major under-count. (note: the day 4-26 where suddenly no one died is clearly a glitch)

Nigeria: (added 5-20)

Pakistan: added 5-20

Peru: a creeping trouble spot - situation and policies unclear

Russia: steep climb in cases lately, now #2 in the worked at about 300,000 confirmed. Alt. media is bigger there - I bet half the people are sure it's a common flu and lockdown is a plot. O did the Kremlin shift to herd immunity, without my hearing about it? Death toll still not too bad: about 20 per million as I just crunched it. It was 15/m a week ago. You can see how it's bound to rise at least a bit.

Saudi Arabia: The king will order what the western scientists say makes sense, it so happens that it does make sense, the clerics wall say God wills it, and people won't do it anyway. Predict beheadings for breaking lockdown?

South Africa: not doing so good, but not as bad as it could be. Note initial strong flattening at March 28, then a steady, moderate exponential growth from there, death toll kept quite low. Likely undercounted by a margin, it might be about that low; it wasn't flu season, and all sub-Saharan Africa took good early containment measures. When I first checked in March-April, S. Africa fared the worst, and even that's not terrible - they had like 38 cases to 0-1-0-2-0-0-1 across the continent south of the equator. Since then, see 5-20 adds for Nigeria, Ghana, Zambia

Spain: Instructive to see how much better people comply when they REALLY get to know what the virus can do. Spain was once the hardest-hit nation, long holding the #2 spot after the US for sheer number of cases, and doing badly for deaths. They managed to get this under control, and now others ae getting harder-hit. Russia just took #2 with about 300k cases, and Brazil will be rivaling Russia any day, letting Spain slide to #4. But then a cautionary tale: see Iran.

Sweden: They're not tying to make this flat, just not too steep. Among the shocking and credible claims in this article is that the death toll is under-counted so Sweden's rulers (same ones that kidnapped Julian Assange for the Americans) can keep bragging about their no-lockdown herd-immunity (herd-thinning) strategy: https://theindicter.com/how-deceptive-non-epidemiological-and-anti-human-is-swedens-covid-19-strategy/ Hidden costs.

Turkey: initial resistance to economy-altering shut-downs, a climbing case rate has shifted Turkey to a more managed approach. That appears to be consistent and really starting to work. Then it's back to re-building the Ottoman empire.

Venezuela: well-contained, just turned bad (added 5-20):

Zambia: same (added 5-20):

UK: you know who you are. The rest of you: remain and carry on and stuff.


United States: We never claimed to be that smart. about 1.5 million confirmed cases (about 1/3 the global total), about 90,000 fatalities.
Some states - which ones do you think have more compliance with effective policy?
California:

Illionois:

North Carolina: just surpassing Washington for number of cases

New York: The Hubei of the US - those who dealt with it for real really deal with it.

Washington: first cluster of US deaths, first lockdown measures, lax enforcement, middling compliance
New Jersey: the smaller half of NY-NJ hotspot once accounting for about half of all US cases (added 5-20):

Texas: Not gettin' messed with as much as some states.

Monday, May 18, 2020

OPCW's "Customary Involvement" Lie About FFM Inspector Ian Henderson

Adam Larson
May 18, 2020
(rough, incomplete)

The latest batch of leaked documents relating to the OPCW's scandalous investigation of the 2018 alleged chlorine attack in Douma comes via Max Blumenthal and Aaraon Mate at The Grayzone:
Exclusive: OPCW chief made false claims to denigrate Douma whistleblower, documents reveal
This was May 6 (about ten days ago) and received good attention, considering how distracted many of us are with coronavirus effects, news, and idiotic debates. A bit late, I come back to it for my own write-up. It's a good way to make sure I've reviewed it, and can have my own prior thoughts to come back to, and everyone else can too. As it happens I add a few thoughts that might moderate previous thoughts, but also solidify the case as we move forward.

(almost as late: the Jimmy Dore show with Mate discussing this article, May 15)

As I first summed it up: "I missed the latest batch of #Douma #OPCW leaks, but thanks to Aaron Mate's excellent analysis, all caught up. Documents prove what we knew: OPCW leadership lied about Ian Henderson when he dared to expose their bigger lies. Will they lie about this proof?" More likely, they'll just ignore it.

Official narrative: Henderson's involvement was 
a meaningless "custom"
Ian Henderson, from UNSC video appearance
The new documents affirm the role of inspector Ian Henderson, and refute the claims he was never part of the official OPCW team handling the investigation, its Fact-Finding Mission in Syria (FFM). When it became clear he was involved in significant aspects of the FFM's work, the new Director-General Fernando Arias painted Henderson's involvement as minimal, temporary, external to the FFM, and spurred only by happenstance centered on his being stationed at the OPCW's command post in Damascus at the right time.

Statement of DG Arias, May 28, 2019: "[at] the time of the FFM deployment in Douma in 2018, this staff member [Henderson] was a liaison officer at our Command Post Office in Damascus. As such, and as is customary with all deployments in Syria, he was tasked with temporarily assisting the FFM with information collection at some sites in Douma."
https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2019/06/Remarks%20of%20the%20Director-General%20Briefing%20for%20States%20Parties%20on%20Syrian%20Arab%20Republic%20Update%20on%20IIT-FFM-SSRC-DAT_1.pdf

In later comments, after the OPCW's "independent" investigation concluded its work in February, Arias expanded on the subject. Again he explained how Mr. Henderson was assigned to the command post, noting the order for that was issued by the Director-General personally. Then he proceeds to labor the point of how pointless Ian Henderson and his findings are:
"As such he provided, as is customary, support to the FFM team investigating the Douma incident. It is customary for the inspectors serving, at the relevant moment, in the command post in Damascus to provide assistance to missions deployed to the Syrian Arab Republic—not only to the FFM, but also to the Declaration Assessment Team (DAT) and the biannual missions to the Scientific Studies Research Centre. This support is essential and composed of United Nations Office for Project Services personnel, interpreters, and drivers. … As described by the independent [sic] investigators, Inspector A played a minor supporting role in the investigation of the Douma incident."
https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2020/02/OPCW%20Director-General’s%20Statement%20on%20the%20Report%20of%20the%20Investigation%20into%20Possible%20Breaches%20of%20Confidentiality.pdf

So he'd do all sorts of things, a bit of each. All help he rendered to the investigation was "limited" and "temporary" and would seem mainly operational. This impression happens to add to all the other problems previously cited by OPCW leadership allowing Henderson's actual investigative findings to be sidelined, replaced, and ideally never spoken of. For good measure, Arias added "the investigators specifically found that Inspector A [Henderson] did not have access to" a list of evidence and analysis that h admits all materialized "only after Inspector A had stopped working in support of the investigation." That only makes sense - he was excluded from a new "core team" formed, it seems, to exclude him and others. But as far as we know from that, he was involved in every aspect prior to that (though it wouldn't seem that way judging by such statements).

Some of Henderson's observation: blast signs at "location 2" the official FFM probe never explained

Sebastien Braha, the DG's Chief of Cabinet, had called Henderson "someone who was not part of the FFM,” in an internal e-mail, possibly to address confusion about that among staff (besides Henderson himself). Arias agrees he was external to the mission, involved only in a meaningless, "customary" way for whoever runs the command post "at the relevant time." The DG's statements are pretty clear on the issue, and have been read this way by amplifiers of OPCW positions.

Former Guardian Middle East editor Brian Whitaker, who has eagerly attacked the OPCW whistleblowers, echoes the claim of Henderson's "customary" involvement, with the explanation: "When the FFM arrived in Syria to investigate the alleged chemical attack, Henderson was already in Damascus as a liaison officer in the OPCW's Command Post there..." (the FFM arrived by April 14, just as F-UK-US missiles landed nearby)
https://www.al-bab.com/blog/2020/01/douma-chemical-weapons-investigation-and-role-ian-henderson

Bellingcat contributor Marcel Vandenberg: "The OPCW has a command post in Damascus. The Command Post team leader (the so-called “liaison” function) prior to the alleged chemical attack in Douma was Ian Henderson. ... OPCW states Henderson was a team leader at the command post in Damascus but not a member of the FFM team." (This has him there before April 7.)
https://feitoffake.wordpress.com/2020/01/04/opcw-technical-secretariat-structure-and-ffm-team-members/

Even after the documents proving otherwise were released, just the other day, Bellingcat founder Eliot Higgins was incredulous: "So you're claiming Henderson wasn't at the command post when the inspection took place?" (he may have been eager to learn Henderson was therefore not involved in the investigation - since being at that post was supposedly his only reason to be included.)
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1259484716610306049

After all, that's what DG Arias had said, and was taken as an article of faith.

April 27: Henderson Joins the FFM in Damascus,
Leads Site Investigations
But now, as Aaron Mate explains, "The Grayzone has obtained an “F038” notification document advising the Syrian government that Henderson is joining the Douma mission as a member of the FFM team. “PLEASE NOTE THAT INSPECTOR HENDERSON, IAN WILL BE PART OF THE TEAM CONDUCTING THE TECHNICAL SECRETARIAT VISITS.” Henderson is listed as the newly added member of a 7-person “LIST OF INSPECTORS” at the bottom of the page.

This is dated April 27. It should be noted the FFM had already assembled in Damascus on the 14th and investigated at locations 2 and 4 on the 21st and 25th, prior to his assignment. I'd noticed how apparent dates in the Evidence Reference Numbers (in the interim report) suggest evidence collection ran from 4-21 to May 1st. Henderson may have missed all that work, or been involved with sample collection on 4-27 (alleged CW warehouse), 4-30 (alleged CW lab, swabs from a valve), and 5-1 (location 4 visit, hospital visit with samples collected). British journalist Peter Hitchens had reported earlier on communications with the OPCW whistleblowers, answering the claim Henderson was not listed on the mandate:
"When the first FFM team was assembled, Inspector A was on a mission in Nepal. Therefore, obviously, he couldn’t have been on the mandate for the team first deploying. When he returned to HQ, it was agreed at the operational level that there was a need to add expertise and experience to the FFM. He was then notified to the Syrian Arab Republic as an additional FFM team member and he joined them in Damascus forthwith."

So he wasn't on the original list, but was added to it, contrary to what DG Arias suggested (perhaps referring only to the original list in some "oversight"). Hitchens also passed on how "The F038 Notification to the Syrian Arab Republic, advising that Inspector A [Henderson] was joining the FFM team, was for the period prior to his taking over the Command Post from another inspector who was there during the Douma deployments. ... Documents support this." So they do.

Thereafter, he was referred to as a member. The Grayzone also shares a list of OPCW “Mission Personnel” and their roles. Henderson is listed, one of four described as “FFM” (one with "medic" added.)

Translators and drivers are listed separately. Allegedly, Henderson was organizing these as command post liaison, but it seems he was being driven and served by them, as an investigator. (I don't know what FSA and LSA stand for - Syrian authorities, federal and local?)

Another file is a leaked message said to be from April (but undated) that refers to Office of the Director General (then Ahmet Uzumcu): "ODG is happy if the visits to the cylinders and hospital are led by Ian Henderson."



This is probably after the F038 message and just before or after his arrival. The nearest Monday was April 30. As Henderson has said, he never visited location 2, but did measurements at location 4 (source...). OPCW report S/1731/2019 has a "mission timeline" that gives April 26 as the date of a Note Verbale (NV/ODG/214836/18) requesting Syrian authorities to "transport the cylinders observed at Locations 2 and 4 to a secure location for packing and facilitate the application of OPCW seals by the FFM for possible future evaluation by the Secretariat." The timeline reflects a dispute over the sealing (May 1, "A SAR representative informs the TL that SAR Government will not accept the sealing of the cylinders."), but it was finally done on June 3. But they were likely moved before Henderson even had a chance to see them in situ. If so, he would likely be leading a visit to "the cylinders" together in storage (he dealt with these). and a later visit to the hospital.

5-20 note: I'm doing some slow review of this, so don't quote me on the above, or I guess the below. Unless you want to.

If this is the case, we could correct Mate, in the current article: ODG "specifically requested that Henderson lead inspections at three high-priority locations in Douma" including "the two locations where the gas cylinders were found" and the relevant hospital. (noting "a fourth, redacted location" with a short name - the alleged CW facility or warehouse?) It might be to just one storage site and the hospital. As for redacted, he did visit location 4 and take measurements, possibly before or after the visits listed in this message. And a Working Group on Syria Propaganda and Media (WGSPM) briefing note had said, perhaps based on the same misunderstood detail: “We have confirmed that as the engineering expert on the FFM, Henderson was assigned to lead the investigation of the cylinders and alleged impact sites at Locations 2 and 4.” It seems impossible that he led the initial site visits, but otherwise he led some of that work, seemingly due to his expertise. This might include:

April 27: FFM visits the alleged (opposition) CW warehouse, collects samples, takes photos and conducts physical measurements.
April 30 (Monday): FFM deploys to the facility suspected of producing chemical weapons, samples taken. Henderson was apparently tasked with leading this (redacted location?)
May 1st: FFM visits Location 1 (hospital) and revisits Location 4 (takes photos and physical measurements). ODG was happy to have Henderson lead these, and he reportedly did so.

Is it "customary" for a serving or scheduled command post team leader to assist the FFM by leading missions to gather evidence?

On Henderson's Qualifications
Mate's article includes several background documents to explain why Henderson might be picked for a leading role in Douma. He was one of the fist-trained team leaders, consistently earning "the highest rating possible," according to superiors, in other leaked documents. He "contributed to CBCP [Capacity Building and Contingency Planning Cell] cell achievements significantly," one says. He was seen as a valuable "asset" with "a wealth of knowledge ... negotiation talent ... technical knowledge and skill."

"Being one of the best Inspection Team Leaders, Mr. Henderson is aware that he can expect to be selected to lead the most demanding and sensitive assignments."

As Mate also explains, Mr. Henderson was praised in 2017 for “leading and participation" in the OPCW’s inspection of Syria’s Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) in Barzeh. Henderson also claims in his UNSC testimony to have inspected the same again after its destruction on 4-14-2018, suggesting it still had no CW link by saying Barzeh was "another story altogether." (video and transcript also at The Grayzone)

To Hitchens, Henderson explained (via an intermediary) he "has (very unusually) been rehired by the OPCW because of his experience" including being "a qualified chemical engineer ... a former artilleryman with considerable ballistics experience." The latter especially is clearly a recommendation of his most relevant work - the analysis of the improbable "impact" sites of those chlorine cylinders. It seemed to him non-ballistic; the cylinders were placed manually.
https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2020/01/a-response-to-bellingcat-form-sources-close-to-the-veteran-opcw-chemical-weapons-inspector-ian-hende.html

May 3-6: Henderson Finally Takes the Post with the "Customary" Assistance … 
to a Probe that's Completed
So he's qualified, but that would seem irrelevant to his selection allegedly based on simply being there at the right time. But as mentioned, he was in Nepal until re-directed to Syria on April 27. Someone else would in charge at the command post then, at least 13 days after the FFM team gathered ("the relevant time").

And another OPCW document shared by The Grayzone shows that Henderson only took over the post not upon arrival but only on (or after) May 3. On that day, Henderson and the prior post-holder signed off on the transfer of authority, related documents, etc. This was, Mate writes, "two days after Henderson and the FFM wrapped up 10 days of inspections in Douma" (more like 4 days for Henderson's part, but still - only after that).

To Hitchens: "[Henderson took] control over the Command Post from another inspector who was there during the Douma deployments. The handover was conducted on May 6, after the end of the Douma deployments, after which Inspector A took over the Command Post. Documents support this." The 3rd was a Thursday - Friday and Saturday is the weekend in Syria, so the 6th would be the first day of the next workweek.
https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2020/02/a-and-b-respond-to-the-opcws-attacks-on-them-the-full-rebuttal.html

Brian Whitaker had Henderson at the post already in mid-April, adding "he continued in that role for five more weeks after the FFM had left." Otherwise, it seems the shift is 5-6 weeks normally, so that would best fit with taking the post only at investigation's end, which it seems he did. (Arias 2-6: "A Secretariat official is assigned from The Hague to the command post in six-week rotations.")

But Henderson only served five weeks, as if one was lost to his FFM work, while the previous guy served a week 7. So he was likely scheduled to start around the 27th, about the same time he was finally sent. OPCW could claim they never lied here;  they could say they just meant his scheduled assignment, his being in country or en route for that, is at least part of why he was selected. In fact that seems likely. It could be that was perhaps accelerated (since he'll be going soon, have him go a week early) or, as the timeline suggests, he even went at the usual time.

But rather than being picked for some minor help that's "customary" to that scheduled job, it seems the posting was unusually delayed; someone else held the post for another week, apparently to allow Henderson "to add expertise and experience to the FFM."


Eliot Higgins was incredulous (as mentioned above), and had a hard time digesting the idea, asking "So why have you concluded the signed handover document is the date when he began working at the outpost as an inspector?" But the document is when he took over AFTER being an inspector, not "working at the outpost AS an inspector". Only misleading claims by OPCW leadership made it seem his inspection work followed on the assignment as command post TL. Rather, it seems this was a separate job of enough value it delayed the assignment.


Concluding Thoughts 
To summarize, we see documents showing he was involved AS a member of the FFM, not as an external helper. He did hold the post with the "customary" helping function, but only after he was done with his immediate work AS an FFM investigator, in fact leading the last of their primary work - visiting sites to gather physical evidence. These documents affirm the claims of Ian Henderson and other whistleblowers and contradict the shifting claims of the coverup managers in OPCW (Technical Secretariat) leadership.

Mr. Henderson's scheduled role at the command post might be part of the reasoning by which he was select to assist in the FFM's work. But it clearly does not follow as a "custom" on the post he didn't even take until after that work was done. In fact is seems his taking the post was delayed to allow for FFM work that hadn't originally been planned. This the opposite of what Arias suggests; he wasn't brought in by a meaningless tradition; rather, the usual routine was interrupted to make sure he had a part in the probe.

Another and likely the major reason was to have Henderson on board was the man's unique qualifications to render the kind of solid analysis he eventually did. But then they didn't want to hear it. So why bring him in at all? Did they misjudge his pliancy?

It seems possible he was brought in only because it couldn't be avoided, given the plan to have him there anyway, and his qualifications - how could they explain NOT having him involved? In that sense it might have been "customary" to let him in, in the sense that it was not really desired by leadership. There's some room to question why he was left in Nepal until the 27th rather than called in from the start. Perhaps that too pressing to interrupt, or maybe he was left at it in an early effort to make his contributions minimal, temporary (just at the end), somehow fit to dispose of.

He would deserve better than such sabotaging management, and was most likely extended it, to start with. And it seems he was allowed to do much past the unavoidable work on the ground. As even the hostile "Bellingcat Team" conceded: "On return from Douma, Henderson claims to have been assigned the task of “analysis and assessment of the ballistics of the two cylinders”. After this point, Henderson claims to have been “excluded from the work”, presumably by the FFM team, but that he chose to continue working on his engineering report. and he does claim to have received some form of authorisation from the Director of Inspectorate (DoI) in order to gain access to engineering computational tools to continue his work." https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2020/01/17/the-opcw-douma-leaks-part-2-we-need-to-talk-about-henderson/

DG Arias concedes "Inspector A was assigned to conduct an inventory of the Highly Protected information collected on the cylinders and determine what information was needed to carry out further studies." (but then he complains A "without authorisation" directly contacted engineering experts in July. The team leader (Sami Barrek) "instructed Inspector A to refrain from making contact with any external third parties," almost as if A (Henderson) were "internal" to the team. And it was a big deal when he "did not accept this, disregarded instructions, and decided he was going to complete his study alone - without informing the FFM team leader." He was still able to access the secure documents server and insert his engineering report in February, 2019, requiring Chief of Cabinet Braha to "remind" people Henderson was not part of the FFM, and to order the report and all traces of it be removed. How had so much confusion arisen and persisted this long?  Is this really the course of some minor, temporary, "customary" involvement following his running the command post, ranging so widely and so long past that 5-week stint? No. the management's shifting stories simply fail.

Henderson may have been invited on board in good faith with no though to his adherence to the known script. But by the time management saw or had whiff of his findings, they would know he was barking up the right tree, which they didn't want. In the Douma case at least, the best investigative methods produced the "wrong" answers, politically speaking. Ad so, we presume, they cast doubt on his role now for the same reason they threw his work under the bus at first chance. As explained, they had to reject his findings as irrelevant opinions of someone never in the FFM, maybe in it but not in the later "core team" devised, it seems, to exclude him and others. His findings were considered, we hear, and rejected for some presumably fair reason. For one thing, DG Arias complained Henderson's findings "pointed at possible attribution" which is too political; they can't do this except, it seems, if the blame points at Damascus. Henderson's report was handed to the new IIT, after they were made public anyway.
As told by the suits in The Hague, Ian Henderson is a reckless loose cannon who defied orders, who "took matters into his own hands," insistently pursuing "theories" that must be wrong, considering how three "independent" experts disagreed. Into 2020 he might have been described as a security risk, or somehow denied entry to speak his case (in person) at the UN Security Council session of January 20, 2020. (maybe just a "national security" risk as it would be in support of the "Russian stunt")


Originally they gave no reason to exclude his engineering assessment, simply pretending it didn't exist, mentioning only the second try with outside experts and its vague, illogical, but acceptable findings. It was only after the public saw the more credible engineering report that OPCW leadership had to start scrambling for valid-seeming reasons that have each failed. That "customary" involvement claim just adds another example, in case anyone out there still fails to grasp what a web of lies has been spun to protect the core lie of the OPCW's sham investigation of the Douma incident.

Lest we forget, this unexplained event claimed the lives of at least 38 women, children, and less men than you'd expect, and possibly the full 187 civilians reported to be killed (I have a hunch the unseen 149 would be almost entirely men of a few local families). Strange and conflicting "witness" claims aside, the best evidence still suggests their killing was deliberate, chemical, and engineered by the same local terrorists who would have manually placed the gas cylinders at their fake crime scenes. Lest we forget, the OPCW's core lie here covers for a hideous act of mass murder that still calls out for true justice.

Monday, May 11, 2020

Lockdown + "Covidiocy" is Dividing the Truth Community

May 11, 2020
rough, incomplete as usual

I don't suppose I ever had to step into the Coronavirus debate, but that hasn't stopped a lot of other armchair experts stepping in aggressively with bad thinking and militant zeal. I don't suppose I can make them stop, judging by the fanatic-like response I get when I've tried (they faith their way past anything I say, then vanish me for trying interrupt their fascinating nightmare). This still annoys me and others, like b at Moon of Alabama, who aptly notes there's no glory in prevention, and people don't get how epidemic modeling works, like a worst-case estimate isn't supposed to come true. But a lot of overly-skeptical people insist on ignoring such details, hypnotized by their own convictions. They see and will keep seeing a massive plot to exaggerate something like a common flu as a way to usher in a terrifying global tyranny.

Resistance update: Australia protesters call for FREE-DOM from lockdown, 10 arrested, including for assaulting police, who they said "do not have authority," because "our law is the ultimate law." That sounds spooky. They wore black, faces covered, and reportedly tied in 5G and vaccine conspiracy theories into their apparent mass delusion. They chanted "no lockdown!" and "arrest Bill Gates!" echoing Alex Jones at a recent protest in Austin, Texas. Alex Jones get it, so it must be true?
https://twitter.com/9NewsAUS/status/1259339892846444545
...

A brave US restaurant owner defies orders to host a record-breaking ... Mother's Day massacre? We'll see. Going over some heads to president Trump, the poser owner claimed "We are standing for America, small businesses, the Constitution and against the overreach of our  governor in Colorado!!" Some liberal science-governor-police conspiracy the Donald, of all people, could surely shake off.
https://www.wftv.com/news/trending/coronavirus-live-updates-us-cases-reach-13m-deaths-top-78k/A2G6FKFMWZAHTFJMLFMEXHB37Y/
These and some hug-in organizers in London, a new anti-lockdown political party in Germany, etc. join those lovely gun-toting tea-party-militia types in Michigan, standing up to the Nazi Whitmer regime. All these wimpy liberal governors, doctors, nurses, epidemiologists - some scientists and doctors disagreeing, yes, but the others - from China and Iran to everywhere else, the technocrats favored by power are nearly all co-opted, in on the WHO-Gates-whatever plot. In some minds then, the only hope for Humanity is the wrath they face from many their public, from many quarters, including disgruntled business owners with a financial incentive, other folks that are plain stupid all the time, and others that seem to have been hit recently with some fast-spreading idiocy virus.

For those fearful ragers, a glimpse into the dystopian future after you submit to staying home: The first nation to do lockdown was the People's Republic of China. The first state in the US to do it was, I think, Washington. China got the spread licked and got back to a guarded normal quite a while ago. I enjoyed lockdown and a paid staycation, besides not getting COIV19 so far (I consider myself at higher-than-usual risk of dying if I got it). Here in the grim future, I never got signed up for ID2020, never even got hassled for going out to the store or anywhere, and Washington's rate of new cases keeps falling to where even I feel fairly safe going back to work, which happens tomorrow, as the US at large eases controls and businesses resume all over, despite a rising death toll already past 80,000. Critics are right to note Trump's moves to ease lockdown come too early in most places, but here in Washington State, the timing comes out okay - we have it under control, and can keep it that way better than most states.

Or rather … relatively under control. I had noted a sharp early rise clearly slowing. Checking back now (new view scaled onto an old one), it's not that amazing - it never did flatten any further, just held a steady, low-boiling daily increase. Deaths now at 931, +10 in the last 24 hours. I plan to stay extra careful.

Not just to annoy the resistance crowd, I'll keep using the Gates-owned Bing COVID19 tracker using WHO numbers - the same ones others use and misuse. Especially now that it's been improved with fancy comparative graphs and even logarithmic graphs of the kind misused my Andrew Math(hoax)er. This link for Washington should have US, global, all others available on the left, to check or follow up on any numbers I cite below.
https://www.bing.com/covid/local/washington_unitedstates?vert=graph

So … UK Column has published part two of the series "Who controls the British Government response to Covid–19?" by Vanessa Beeley. It seems her/their answer is yes, WHO controls it; a spooky opening quote suggests this is all a plot by the World Health organization to take over the world, maybe exterminate us in some "health camps" or whatever.  "To achieve world government, it is necessary to remove from the minds of men their individualism, loyalty to family tradition, national patriotism, and religious dogmas." — Dr George Brock Chisholm, who served as the first Director-General of the World Health Organisation (WHO) from 1948 to 1953

The article is ambitious and detailed, naming big pharma players who might be behind a big plot if one existed. Rich elites with connections to others, implied agendas, Bill Gates, ID 2020, things of genuine concern, quite possibly launching off this crisis - that does seem worth watching for, but Beeley and other eager spotters try to ignore that these moves are also consistent with simply preventing the virus' spread, which does seem to be a real danger - another thing they try to ignore. They want to prove it's the plot they just know it really is, but they insist on artificially simplified math to prove it. No threat to justify lockdown + lockdown = another motive MUST be at work = don't let them control us with fear, PANIC AND RESIST NOW before it's TOO LATE!!!

Ms. Beeley would consider me one of those robbed of my individualism and ripe for enslavement because I heeded the scientific advice to "stay home, save lives" and so on. I've lost any footing I had as a searcher after truth against power, letting powerful people tell me what to do. We used to be allies, if strained by my annoying devil's-advocacy and second-guessing, etc. and her nasty, hostile reactions to it - she does not like being disagreed with! So I didn't do it often. My only serious gripe I recall is to suggest a more balanced-seeming tone vis-à-vis the "White Helmets" might help a wider audience take it more seriously. That mattered to me because it's valuable work, and I had nothing to add to it aside from such thoughts.

But that was all tolerable, and it was only with this coronavirus issue that … I disagreed and stronger than usual, but only with logic and a question she didn't answer. Instead she who blocked me on Twitter and Facebook, branding me an enemy banished to a planet she's not on, after I pointed out the Syrian and Iranian governments, among others, freely adopted the same kind of tyrannical policies. They took the virus as a real threat, not just a hyped-up flu to justify some Bill Gates-WHO Western elite plot. She didn't want to hear that truth, as she shits on Bashar Assad's efforts along with everyone else's. (Just on this one issue - as far as I know her other work remains excellent on balance, even in my nitpicky opinion).

Anyway, she cast me off, not the other way. That's annoying, but I'd still work alongside her at a distance if she were willing to accept that I strongly disagree on this subject, and yet I'm not part of the evil plot. Stay zealous like that or don't - her call. Maybe in another few months when there was no takeover, just a large but moderated death toll and some inconveniences that will leave a mark, but slowly fade to memory. If she even remembers me by then, maybe she'll see fit to re-friend me.

Actual article analysis - I don't even feel up to anything past the fist few thoughts I had an a graphic I wanted to do. Considering also: part 1 on April 22
https://www.ukcolumn.org/article/who-controls-british-government-response-covid19-part-one

Both of these seem to avoid prior claims of UK peaks past - I had just exposed a leading point in that as a hoax - she or UKC editors may have heeded that, or it was left off in a lucky oversight. Yet the basic approach still insists on simplifying the picture with statements like "death certificates that misrepresent the actual cause of death as Covid–19, regardless of pre-existing medical conditions." That's not simply a "misrepresentation" - it might be, in small or large part. There are cases where the virus was never confirmed before ascribing it, but this is meant to be used where it's reasonable, like another person who dies of pneumonia-like illness right after six others in the same nursing home died of the same, 2 of them and several workers confirmed for COVID19. That would be a fair presumption - not guaranteed to be true, but not a lie to further some conspiracy.

And then even if they had the virus, there's pre-existing conditions - the tired died-of vs. died-with debate. Depending how you define this, it can be said the virus kills no one, just triggers a death that was inevitable due to smoking, pollution, age, illness, genetic disorder, etc.. Taken to the extreme, one could say everyone has the main pre-existing condition (mortality), while only some have the more crucial ones, and the only cause of death ever is death - everything else is just an irrelevant trigger, and there's no point avoiding any kind or scale of death at any time, since we all die anyway.

Mainly, I just like to make graphs, maps, timelines, etc. and to educate, make my case - all at the same time if possible. Beeley/UKC provoked me with a misleading graphic. As described: "The following graph was produced by UK Column and demonstrates the lack of correlation between lockdown and "saving lives""

In a select list, non-locked small island nations with slower that controlled it early (at the port, contact tracing, etc.), especially ones in Asia (collectivist and/or close to China = took it seriously and did well), plus Mexico (for having only a "loose" lockdown), Belarus for refusing it generally, and Sweden with its managed "herd-immunity" approach, so far on or around April 22. Lockdown countries are the populous ones with a lot of travel and commerce including in China or secondary epicenters, big cities where it spread badly, etc. By sound logic that many ignore, the spread would have been far worse without current measures in UK, France, Germany (low), Spain, Italy, Belgium, US (low). That's how it works - some places are spared, others ravaged. And those who are set to be spared can afford to skip the extreme measures. Those who just think they'll be spared risk making deadly mistakes.

My updated version, re-colored, re-ordered - UKC bar sizes are darker shaded, additions since lighter
… note that Sweden has doubled it death rate in the intervening 18 days. The US and UK have done about the same, with their lockdowns (meaning it would have more than doubled, from a higher start, if there had been no such measures). Italy, Spain, France, and Germany have had had better luck at keeping the fatality rates from increasing dramatically. Belgium must be trying, but it remains out of hand, increasing about 50% since April 22.


Special focus on China, a lockdown country and the archetype of one, but not included in that chart.  But here for effect I've broken China's death toll in two, to show a key difference. There was a time when Hubei province (including the epicenter Wuhan) enjoyed freedom from the tyranny of lockdown; people wee not dragged off to quarantine centers by force, wee not required to wear masks outside and submit to hovering drones that tell them to hurry up and get back inside. The Gates-WHO plot had not taken root in this brief utopia. But that was inaction from ignorance, which only China early on can claim. The elderly and vulnerable were also hit unprepared along with everyone, and its rapid spread took a dramatic-seeming toll in short order.

It didn't look like a simple flu to China's leadership, so they instituted a stronger version of what we call lockdown. Logically, it worked. The crisis in Hubei with delayed lockdown = 4,512 dead in 58.5m = 77 deaths per million. This could have gotten worse but was stopped. It had some bleed-over to other parts of China, but these were limited, then stopped. Most importantly for death tolls, the vulnerable were protected everywhere (to the extent vulnerability was known). The nationwide average looks middling-low, better than almost anything else on the chart (4,633 out of 1,438m = 3.2 per million - that's current, and barely different from April 22). That's all the more impressive as this isn't New Zealand that could act smart before any cases appear; they did this after averaging-in the most rapid surprise attack in the world in Wuhan and Hubei. In fact I'd say the urgency that instilled is why the Hubei death rate was cut by 99.884% everywhere else in China. And now comparing cumulative death tolls, we can see the creeping version of COVID19 and herd immunity policies are what really kills.
...
I just saw that Mexico may be underreporting its cases and fatalities. I suspect Belarus has been doing so - the president has declared no deaths will officially be attributed to COVID19, and somehow the number dead remains disproportionately low for the rising (but surely incomplete) number of cases - around 1,000 new cases each day (about 30,000 total), just 5 or so deaths/day (131 total).

May 13: Another chart that doesn't start from UKC's choices but my own more relevant ones to how adherence to the Gates-WHO plot or Imperial College modeling somehow spans most political lines that exist. It almost seems like whoever care enough tries to contain it, with or without lockdown, and whoever does it well (and has good starting luck) winds up with tiny death tolls compared the few being ushered to a utopia of "herd immunity."

Brazil - 156,061 confirmed cases puts Brazil at 7th place in the world for confirmed cases, and probably lower-than-average confirmation - that's good, as the dead-to-confirmed ratio isn't good: 6.8% (10,656 deaths). Out of 209 million, that's 51/million. A couple weeks ago, it was only at 14/million. At the moment, the government refuses to put brakes on the spread, and flu season will be on them soon (not that season is nearly as relevant as some think). Peak deaths remains to be seen - the last several days are the highest yet, around 700 dead/day. Pres. Bolsonaro had to fire his health minister, and now (following on unrelated corruption charges) he and his supporters are calling for a return to military rule, suspending Brazil's congress and supreme court.



UK peak deaths: it's often repeated that fatalities peaked on April 8 and have been falling since. I see that as almost right and not very telling; peak on April 10 - 980 dead - two other 900+ days close by and non since makes that a peak, but the downhill part is not vey - it stayed abound 800/day on average for some two weeks, then dropping to a current average around 650.
The Bing graphs I've been following were just changed to a new and much more detailed format. Somehow, the dates are all shifted now, so that peak is on the 9th, not the 10th (or the 8th). Here I just took the whole date line and shifted it right to reflect that.


US peak deaths, color-coded (higher = redder, so it adds nothing but looks): like Brazil, still getting there. We get over the mark of 2,600/day a few times, each time a bit easier. As lockdown measures ease across the country, expect this to become highs of 3,000/day and above, with a time to peak that's impossible to know, dependent on how we behave.

On May 3, a huge batch of 8,000+ deaths was added, then removed, remains floating - that's probably care home tallies or some such, not belonging to any one day. The tallies for that and the next couple of day kept shifting, with some really low totals, but highs just higher than past ones. The last couple of days are low again, maybe to be followed by a higher spike, but the numbers come in slow at the weekend. Only late Monday or Tuesday will answer that. I may update any of these last 3 graphics in a few more days. It's been interesting, but I should hope it'll get boring eventually.