January 25, 2026
(rough, incomplete)
2018 Douma Incident in Syria: Chemical Weapons Attack or Concealed Mass Murder?
A Critical Evaluation of OPCW Reports and Available Evidence
A Report by Adam John Larson
Monitor on Massacre Marketing / A Closer Look On Syria
Working Group on Syria, Propaganda and Media
January 25, 2026
PDF host page at ACLOS: File:2018 Douma Incident in Syria report 1-25-26.pdf - A Closer Look On Syria
63 pages, 245 citations
some notes probably forthcoming ...
(from the report) Summary of Findings
Section 2: Impact or Staging? The Engineering/Ballistics Evidence
An explosive Impact is the only logical explanation for the Location 2 (L2) crater. Broken and drastically bent rebar beneath intact bars, cratering and spalling, and upper walls peppered with secondary fragmentation marks all testify to a mortar or other artillery shell causing the damage, as with similar roof craters seen nearby. The evidence does suggest this shell lacked the usual primary explosive fragments, a complication OPCW investigations seized on to dismiss all the other signs.
A distinctive pattern of scratches on the L2 cylinder – taken as proof of an airdrop and prior impact with a mesh canopy – virtually proves the barely-damaged cylinder was placed by two people carrying it through the patio door, with three steps over some sharp wires of the canopy – that was already torn down – and a final pivot off the mesh before they set the cylinder down next to the existing crater. (see images below)
The alleged impact crater at Location 4 (L4) was most likely caused by building debris and construction equipment from a neighboring roof that was damaged in the battles of 2012. The hole is the wrong size and shape to be caused by the cylinder, and the OPCW's expert calculations on penetration and bounce onto the bed are highly questionable and refuted by other open-source analysis.
Signs suggest the L4 cylinder was instead carried up the stairs and in the door, with marks left in both places. A wire likely used to secure a loose member for this travel may have detached at the last moment, causing an otherwise inexplicable mishap with the shower door, along with damage to the bed on a more sideways “trajectory,” before resuming its supposed bounce onto the bed. This all but proves manual placement at L4 as well as L2, but even more botched.
Many of these points were raised by an official OPCW engineering study by “Inspector A.” This was rejected as the FFM investigation sought other experts, five months in to the probe, who assured them – contrary to the evidence – that both scenes were consistent with cylinders dropped from the sky.
Section 3: Considering Chlorine Release and Toxicity
Signs indicate that chlorine was probably released at both sites, in a controlled manner by the scene managers who had placed the cylinders. At L2 they either melted out the fusible plug with a fire that was deliberately set, or by snapping off the valve, as it later appeared and as high zinc residues might suggest. Signs indicate the majority of the gas inside was released within 2-3 hours.
At L4, less than half the contents were released over 3 weeks, apparently in repeated quick bursts with long spans in between. It's likely gas was first released only on the morning after the attack, and other controlled releases came just before each of two OPCW visits, somehow staining the bed in a repeated cycle of yellow-green to red-brown, likely from the gas reacting with abundant iron and other metals (although this point is contested and speculative).
It seems OPCW investigations exaggerated clues for chlorine release and maintained an obsession with high concentrations, as if in desperation to prove allegations against the Syrian government rather than simply following the science.
The original toxicology experts, consulted 2 months in, were clear in noting that chlorine could hardly explain the observed fatalities, whatever the concentration. Chlorine, they argued, is a simple irritant that does not ordinarily cause the instant foam nor the sudden death, unconsciousness, or collapse that were reported; in reality, the victims should be able to escape the gas rather than dying in piles near the exit. Those directing the FFM's investigation ignored this expert input, deleted all reference to it, and – six months into the investigation – consulted other experts who would assure the FFM that, contrary to the known science, chlorine at high concentrations could probably explain everything well enough. This conclusion was eagerly accepted and amplified with expressions of confidence.
The FFM and IIT would note clouding of the eyes as a clue, which accompanies acid burns alongside red irritation, but also occurs upon death from any cause. Since none of the Douma victims displays red eyes, the clouding plus pulmonary edema suggests that the victims had their lungs exposed to a caustic substance while their eyes were protected – a mystery the OPCW's investigators failed to recognize, let alone answer.
Section 4: Considering How and Why the Victims Were Killed
Just from a few images, the ignored original toxicology experts had expressed concern that the Douma incident could be a “propaganda exercise” with arranged corpses. Indeed, the visual evidence shows bodies were arbitrarily piled and re-arranged, with dust-free socks, amid signs of break-in at the relevant apartments, but with faces and hair inexplicably washed shortly before the first images. None of this fits with the lodged story. The bodies seem to be arranged in the same vein as the cylinders, perhaps after their murder with chemicals somewhere else.
The unusual “Mask of Death” effect is an important and complex clue that also might explain the face and hair washing. A discoloration (yellow shifting to orange and brown depending on exposure), irritation, and hardening of the skin across the upper face may be the result of nitric acid, administered directly in a vapor or caused by an agent like diesel exhaust. Nitric acid causes a unique “xanthoproteic reaction” chlorine does not cause and that would explain all the observed effects and their development over the span of several hours. Other causes may exist, but chlorine does not fit the bill. Nitric acid would also be a simple irritant and in itself would not answer why the victims failed to escape the scene.
The shape of the effected area may indicate that the victims were bound in place during their fatal exposure. This would explain their failure to escape the gas. Protected eyes inside goggle-shaped exclusions, with deep skin effect on the upper cheeks beneath that, and around the outer rims – in total much like a domino mask – suggests that 1) the victims were indeed fitted with goggles (albeit for unknown reasons) and 2) the acid-laced edema fluids they coughed out flowed “up” their faces to be slowed by the goggles, because they were also positioned so their faces were upside-down (perhaps suspended that way).
The mask effect appears clearly in several cases, with mixed signs in other cases, and likely applies to all victims. For so many people to hold an unusual position after fitting with goggles while inexplicably failing to flee a simple irritant gas can only be explained by their being held captive and bound this way prior to their deliberate gassing. Their deaths were probably slow, painful and terrifying.
The victims were likely imprisoned enemies of the ruling Jaysh al-Islam. Out of 35 publicly identified fatalities, 11 were named Bakriyeh, a rare local name suggesting they were related to a commander of an opposing faction, the Douma Martyr's Brigade. It's entirely possible they and the rest were originally kidnapped by JaI as enemies, in a collective punishment of entire families, and were eventually killed for the April 7 “propaganda exercise.”
Reports at the time and insider confirmation a year later suggest there may have been 187 civilians actually killed, with someone deciding to revise that (for unclear reasons) to the accepted 43. April 7 was JaI's last chance to do anything with their prisoners besides set them free, and they may have killed half of their few remaining prisoners for this horrific project (another and final 200 prisoners were released alive in the following days). Thousands of others once held were unaccounted for, likely killed off by their captors over the years.
There is no credible sign that any Syrian helicopters were involved.
Select Images
More perhaps forthcoming ...
