The Corona Party: an Overview
One of the new things to emerge in the wake of the global SARS2/COVID19 pandemic is the "myth" of the Covid or Corona party, where people attend with the aim of catching the virus. The idea isn't new at all, and not necessarily stupid, depending on the virus (parents at least used to host Chicken Pox parties for their kids, to catch it early and develop immunity). In the case of COVID19, well ... it's not quite a Black Plague or Ebola party, nor a Spanish flu party, but actually pretty comparable to the latter. We'll come back to that below. First, what evidence is there such events are real?
I first really noticed the issue when it was reported recently in Tuscaloosa, Alabama (details below). I hadn't read into it before, but now that I have, I see Wikipedia has a page on the subject - which someone is sculpting to emphasize denials of their existence. In fact it's wrecked ATM (no, "response" does not mean long-winded denials). I might find my sign-in stuff and fix it up.
This had been a rudimentary page a few days back when I added the Tuscaloosa and Walla Walla examples. It had already listed events reported in the US, the UK, Estonia, and Germany. An uploaded photo (stretched crop below) says someone in Australia had a 3-day "CORONA PARTY" planned way back in late March, advertised in spray-paint on someone's old car at a collapsing trailer home full of junk. As noted by a user, these didn't all relate to the core concept, and included general partying that was simply prohibited at the time. And the photo added little, was removed. Well, it adds color, so I'll keep my crop.
More to the point and not far away, in Walla Walla county, Washington, on May 6 it was reported numerous such parties already reported, thought to contribute to a spike of infections. A news release explained: “Walla Walla County health officials are receiving reports of COVID-19 parties occurring in our community, where non-infected people mingle with an infected person in an effort to catch the virus.” Meghan DeBolt, director of the county’s Department of Community Health, called the gatherings “unacceptable” and “irresponsible.” She noted at least 25 infected people in the community have admitted to going to a "COVID-19 party.""
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-parties-washington-state-county-rise-in-cases
But then this was called back almost immediately. May 8: “I formally call back my interview today,” DeBolt said in the new statement, as reported by The Associated Press. “After receiving further information, we have discovered that there were not intentional COVID parties. Just innocent endeavors.”
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-parties-washington-state-county-were-innocent-endeavors-official-says-new-statement
Before dropping it myself, it's worth considering that really had been the intent, but considering that could be classed an act of terrorism - not that it really would b - there was enough concern that everyone involved agreed to backdate the decision to NOT have that motive after all. Otherwise, it's dropped - not a clear example of even an alleged party.
(side-note: To map the possible impact in Walla Walla would take time-specific research to break down the accumulation of just 219 cases, and 3 fatalities. (county update 7/12). In a tiny population of ~61,000 (0.061 million), that's a moderate death rate of 49.2/million (well below the global average and way below the national one). Even the larger number of cases is likely too small to reveal much of a pattern, and would take research I'll just skip.)
Also to the point: just the other day, on the 11 of July, an unnamed man in San Antonio, Texas reportedly died from COVID-19 after attending a party of some kind under the belief that the virus is a hoax. He wasn't elderly at all - age 30. Reported last words: "I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax, but it's not." If this is true (I suspect so), he definitely made a mistake. Did he infect anyone else who didn't even make that stupid choice? https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/30-year-man-dies-attending-covid-party-thinking/story?id=71731414
From this basic review, no examples stands out as entirely clear on the intent - just to party despite restrictions vs. to actively counter containment efforts by deliberately spreading the virus. The Tuscaloosa example that first grabbed my attention still stands out and alone for involving a clear intent to spread the virus, and a sizeable cash incentive as fuel to the fire, and for having a likely discernable effects on increased infections and fatalities. Finally on to that...
The Tuscaloosa Jackpot Model
According to Local Officials
City council member Sonya McKinstry explained how partygoers "put money in a pot and they try to get COVID. Whoever gets COVID first gets the pot. It makes no sense,” she said. “We’re trying to break up any parties that we know of.”
https://www.wbrc.com/2020/07/01/officials-covid-positive-young-people-party-instead-quarantining-tuscaloosa/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/covid-19-parties-in-tuscaloosa-what-s-really-going-on/ar-BB16hq3i
https://abcnews.go.com/US/alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-infected-officials/story?id=71552514
https://nypost.com/2020/07/02/alabama-students-gamble-on-who-gets-sick-at-covid-19-parties/
The presumption or evidence suggests college students are the main attendees of the parties in Tuscaloosa. The University of Alabama was initially unable to verify any such parties or identify any students involved, but seem to take the allegation seriously in general. And they clearly don't want such reckless activity around as they plan to reopen campus in August, only with every student and all staff tested first, physical (social) distancing maintained, and masks on everyone.
That's all I found so far for primary sources. I haven't seen any of these claims retracted, as happened in Walla Walla.
Motives?
I was directed to a relevant episode of the podcast "Squaring the strange" with surreal theme music I quite like. I don't know the show, but the hosts seem to be professionals in scoffing at things they call mythology, applying what seems to be knee-jerk skepticism; they can barely stop laughing at the whole idea long enough to really think it through. why go and bet on getting sick, then try to collect from the hospital? Well, of course, young folk tend to think they're immune from serious harm, and mostly they are. So clearly anyone who takes part is motivated by a desire to party, and to hopefully win some money, for what they consider to be no personal risk.
One host admitting to feeling blinded by the red flags flying off the claims, especially from Tuscaloosa, specifying firstly the "anonymous source." But the city council member and fire chief are in fact named - they only wear those masks for the virus thing, not to be anonymous. Chief Smith says they thought it was a rumor at first, but did "research" that changed their minds. I'd trust that over some uninformed scoffing.
The other host was stuck on questions about how the betting and payout would work (how to know someone wasn't already confirmed, etc.), suggesting it was extremely implausible. Of course these are valid, but their existence doesn't prove anything. The answer is we simply don't know what the rules were or would be, and maybe it doesn't need to work as people had been told. Keep reading.
More than the attendees, the motive for the party planners might seem puzzling. Why would someone break the law and take this risk of possible terrorism charges, just to get other people sick? Councilwoman McKinstry thought the idea "makes no sense," while asserting that such events had - apparently - happened. But it must make some kind of sense or else it wouldn't happen. I anticipate allegations that Russia is paying people bounties to engage in this low-grade biological warfare against the American public. But in the meantime, are there more plausible culprits and a logical motive?
It makes no financial sense to make money off party tickets then just give it to whoever gets sick first. And there certainly are questions about how the prize could be claimed - the system of proof and manner of payout, But maybe it never was meant to work out, past getting more people infected and/or getting their money. Only if they intended to do repeat business (not so likely here) would they feel a need to pay out so people trust them. All things considered (including those questions about how), the planners with their hands on the cash probably would just keep it, telling everyone showing up with their test results that somebody else already won it. How could they be sure if that's a lie, and who would they complain to? No one. Any challenge would be personal and likely involve guns, and you can guess who would probably have planned better for such disputes.
That's the base greed motive, but there's another possible one they might see as noble, as offsetting the damage they cause or even making out to be a benefit to society. Some people out there see cause for a crusade against the "covid1984" lockdown "scamdemic." This has different forms in different minds, of course, but tends to be some hard-to-define plot by the New World Order to re-order the world economy and get us all injected with ... something evil in a vaccine. In this case, NWO is defined as the Chinese, the WHO, and Bill Gates, plus the vaguest form of 'the global elite' that includes nearly every world leader from Tehran to Washington, almost every governor, mayor, and city council. And almost every relevant medical professional on Earth is in on it too, plus of course the corporate media.
Such self-panicked souls have long-since turned to activism to thwart these plans. Some had wrecked 5G transmission towers over bizarre theories they somehow beamed the virus into us, so long we were in our homes (was that the theory? It seemed hazy, or I am). So it should be no surprise - when an excuse to party is mixed in - that people would try to have fun spreading the virus that can't be stopped anyway?
Consider that a lot people out there - even otherwise intelligent ones - truly believe "herd immunity" is the answer the NWO plot is set against. In this view, once some unclear but presumably acceptable number of people have been infected, there will be enough immune people about that the virus would fade off. That's true, and if the "vulnerable" (folks over 80, they think) have been magically protected so hardly any die along the way - or get lasting damage - it might be a fine plan. They think this is the answer here, and blame lockdown etc. for delaying the inevitable solution, dragging it out and making it more deadly. I've been re-arguing over-and-over why this is dangerous idiocy, and working now on a set place I can make the case more fully (will add the link here as soon as there is one). But I've seen herd immunity enthusiasts brush aside every kind of logic in a refusal to re-think their position. They're zealous. I remain worried that such misguided menaces will take it on themselves to infect as many as possible, regardless what the "sheep" out there want. And they'd feel good about that decision, thinking they're saving us from oppression.
So the idea of a COVID party makes a certain sense, both financially and socio-politically. Of course the social-distancing lockdown has only itself to blame for making a shoulder-rubbing party seem so unusually tempting. But it has a lot of morons out there to blame for a flippant attitude that considers the virus harmless and even encourages mass infection as the answer, underwriting the plausible motive to host or attend such parties.
My Message to the Runners-Up
And, again, such events have been alleged by ostensibly credible sources. So let's not laugh this of the table, and focus on what to do if these parties exist - work to make them not exist. Spread the word so invitees to any future event can know the score and help shut it down instead of feeding into it.
I could direct a message to the winners of such jackpots, in Tuscaloosa or anywhere else, but there may be none, and it seems better to ask the numerous losers if that was really worth it. They should know the people running such things probably won't pay out; they'll just use a cheap party to take some of your money and/or further their confused agenda. Maybe somebody did get the dough, but you're one of those who didn't, maybe just too slow getting your infection confirmed. You didn't win the jackpot you paid into with your ticket purchase. You got nothing but another party, this time for your "right" to fight ... the fight against the virus.
You didn't die and aren't secluded in ICU, or you wouldn't be reading this. Maybe you didn't even feel it. But maybe you suffered crippling aches and even regret. You might have been super-careful and avoided spreading it to anyone else. But statistically, you probably infected at least one other person, possibly several, who will infect others, and so on, quite possibly leading to hospitalizations and maybe to someone's death.
So, jackpot non-winner ... you may have some some blood on your hands now. And even if not, be aware that you assisted in the criminal sabotage of all our hard-won victories against a highly damaging pathogenic enemy. "Terrorism" isn't the right word or idea for it, but ... you really should be be on the side of Humanity, not the side of the virus and idiocy.
Graphing the potential impact
A graphic that was fun to make is only semi-scientific, but gives some idea of how some will wind up causing a death or two and others won't. The reproduction rate here is about 1.75, which is probably low for socially-engaged partygoing types; I drew 0-3 infections off most branches, usually one or two, favoring 2. I decided runner-up 11 would be an activist who tried to infect other people and managed to get six, just one of whom also tries to infect people and gets four. Note how two of them - runners-up #6 and 7 - wind up infecting no one else. If you just went to such a party, please be like #7 here.
How many sub-sub-branches to draw on this colorful cruciferous vegetation? It's theoretically infinite, but bound by population(s) and circumstances (like others employing "social" distancing, etc.), taking time to occur, and bound to eventually fade off somewhere. This many levels would most likely stretch past the starting community, spreading to and in neighboring towns or the next county, maybe even the state capitol, in the state next door, or beyond. As I drew it seems fair enough for this exercise, but likely exaggerated. It's to make a point, not to predict actual outcomes.
The starting 13 new infections cause 25 more, who cause 44 more, and so on, for something like 300 infections drawn here as caused by those 13. Something like half of those will be fairly mild cases that never get confirmed, but I decided on 47 hospitalizations resulting here, five proving fatal and nine cause lasting damage. I don't know how many red markers to put; there's still only so much known about the lasting effects of the illness, but it seems clear at least that it causes body-wide vascular damage in some people (see findings in Bergamo, Italy where some 2.5% of the people there have died (if the pop. is 122,000), while some of survivors had "vessel damage in the whole body" which in some cases led to renal failure, stroke, and heart attack later on (and not years later - the ones that far out remain to be seen).
And consider this graphic shows just the winner and 10 active runners-up from a single virus-spreading party, when there might be 20, 50, or 250 of them, depending on the party.
Assessing the possible effect in Tuscaloosa
Death Rate
The main thing I do re:COVID19 is follow the death tolls and just some of the news, crunch some numbers and make graphics showing deaths rates over time. It's tedious, but just a bit past the amount of tedium I like. (keeping tabs on that here, with some methodology explained, etc.). I decided to apply that here, and dug up some new sources to get a good pictures for Tuscaloosa county.
Dashboard with current numbers (statewide - county has to be selected)
https://alpublichealth.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/6d2771faa9da4a2786a509d82c8cf0f7
Some official announcements and such:
https://www.tuscco.com/covid19/
https://www.tuscaloosa.com/covid19
And prior death tolls mainly come from news reports sporadically linked to.
Tuscaloosa county population: 208,911 = 0.209 million.
At last check-in, they had 2,931 confirmed cases, and 24 probable ones.
As of July 16, 55 confirmed deaths are recorded = 263.16/m, and 2 probable. Including those, it's 272.73/m. I include these (explained below).
At less than a quarter of a million people, the per-million measure I use is less helpful here than usual. Momentarily converting it to per 10,000, we divide by 100 for 2.727 or 2.73/10k. Now mentally divide the populace 209,000 (rounded off) into 21 groups of 10,000 each (the last one a bit short). Moth of those big groups of 10k has had three people killed by the virus so far, the rest having more or less, but balancing to an average just below 3.
That's not many yet, but the bulk have come in just the last few weeks, with a lot of new cases coming in, including several more set to die. The longer and wider this goes, the more deaths and pending deaths will come in along with all these preventable infections. Everyone tries to shield the vulnerable, but they seem both hard to define and hard to protect. And the "lockdown" measures that have been helping greatly can't hold forever.
Tuscaloosa county's death rate of 268/m is well above the state average of 251/m, but still below the national average of 419/m. But Alabama, and Tuscaloosa especially is out of step in how the deaths tend to pile up - they didn't before and are now, when it's supposed to be the other way around as people get smarter about it. Deaths are way down in most places - or were until recently, or some reasonable mix (see below for an example compared back). In Tuscaloosa, it was slowed from March through May, but then just accelerated. When I first checked around the 10th, I saw 4 deaths added at once. But it seems the rush had mainly happened through June, and the remaining few new deaths took some days to appear. Is that because these Covid parties are real and either done happening for the moment, or happening on a smaller scale now?
The 2 "probable" deaths: there had been 4 of these (and 44 confirmed) a few days before, when I first checked. Next day, confirmed jumped by 4 and probable dropped to 2 (staying there since). I guess 2 more died and 2 were confirmed (and not at once - seems they only report every few days). Most likely, the other 2 are also COVID19, and thus "probable."
People make some noise about unconfirmed and presumably unrelated deaths being included, but this chart of how these came in New York City - defined as "Cause of death reported as COVID-19 or equivalent, but no positive laboratory test." This should be a pneumonia-like illness. And by the graph, it seems to spreads and kills alongside COVID19 so it blends right in like an extension of it, even falling the same way under the same control conditions (a standard cold or flu would have fallen of much earlier and more totally - so it's tenaciously contagious like COVID19. On the scale of NYC, with over 4,500 probable deaths, it seems likely there are wrongful inclusions. I'd guess - broadly - somewhere between 10 maybe 200 of them, weighted low (~40?). Most logically, the other 4,000+ are just more of the same. And since this the same kind of narrow definition is likely used by others, I tend to include probable deaths as probably more of the same, as I do in Tuscaloosa.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-deaths.page
Case confirmation
In the graphic below, from the Alabama COVID19 dashboard, we can see confirmed cases rising with each relaxation of lockdown measures in the county, so that since 5-13, they've had double-digit cases every day but one. Something like 40 new cases is most common, and as of early-mid-June - the reported span of the parties - 70 became a new norm, and new cases have passed 80 three times (83, 87, 144 on July 8, and just as of writing (not shown below) 7-16 brought 96 cases). These and earlier spikes might well reflect people rushing to get confirmed hoping to win the jackpot from that party (a few days?) ago. A far-and-away record of 144 on July 8 may include a batch of prior cases confirmed and/or another post-party rush for the jackpot. Maybe they had an extra big party to celebrate making the news? Maybe the first rush just now appearing? In many cases, it takes up to 2 weeks for test results to come back - which would be another question mark over jackpot winnings. I'm not sure just how to read all this, but it seemed worth a try.
Further clues:
Tuscaloosa County currently lists 2,931 confirmed cases vs. pop 208,911 = 1.4%
Statewide: 60,158 (930 probable) - vs. pop. 4,908,620 = 1.22%.
So the county is higher in confirmed cases, but only by a bit.
Probable: 930 state = 189.46/m, county 24 = 114.88 - notably less probable/untested/unclear = more than average get tested for sure answers. That might be a slight clue.
2955 cases vs. 56 dead seems like a rather high level of confirmed but non-fatal cases, even considering a few deaths will be pending in ICU. In fact, that's a very low basic cfr: 0.0189 = 1.89% - far below the global and national average of about 5% . Double-checking national: 138,358 dead is the US vs. cases 12 days ago seems a good method - 2,695,495 = 5.13% This number does reflect testing rates, and it seems testing is up all over, starting to drive down that rate. So another thing I'm not sure how to read, but ...
This might show an unusual number of confirmed but non-fatal infections, including a lot of young partygoers getting tested in the hopes of winning money. Such people generally don't die, but other people they'll spread it to do, possibly explaining the elevated deaths in late June and early July.
I'd include hospitalizations under the above heading, but the state's dashboard doesn't give this at the county level. And I probably wouldn't know how to read this definitively either. But as an index, it' similar to deaths - jackpot chasers will tend to stay out of the hospital besides survive.
We also might expect to see an unusually high testing rate caused by the rush to get confirmed first. And it also might exist but be too small to see, or impossible to tell from another cause. But I had a look. Statewide testing rate on 7/15: 550,179 - 11.21% of the population has been tested from the start until now, over about 3 months, but disproportionately in the last 2 weeks - (114,138 on 7/15) 146,463 last 14 days = 2.98%. County average: 6,472 then 6,034 tested last 14 days / 208,911 = 3.1% - above average, but just barely. I'd have to dig to see if they had a disproportionate rush in the 14 or 28 days before that. Maybe so - checking back on the 18th, the county is right on par with the state. If the difference is on the decline now, it likely was before, having been considerably higher for a while.
Some of the efforts, sacrifices, and losses the Tuscaloosa partiers shit upon, and background details to put on the timeline:
I also thought it might be interesting to note some related developments we could compare. This is optional reading.
March 16: "The Tuscaloosa County Commission has approved an Emergency Declaration in response to the potential spread of COVID-19. The declaration activates the Tuscaloosa County continuity of operations plan and authorizes the county to aid in the protection and preservation of life and property and to render assistance to victims of the disaster. This is a procedural enabling measure in preparation for the period to come."
March 25: Mayor Walt Maddox calls a temporary 10pm to 5am "public safety curfew" in the city of Tuscaloosa - on the idea the virus spreads more at night (I guess it tends to spread needlessly at night). And of course "putting the kids to bed early" has other uses, historically, that might play in.
March 26: The very next day, it was decided, "Due to the rapidly developing situation," that curfew would be extended to 24 hours a day, starting the 29th at 10 p.m. until midnight on April 11. This still seems like an over-reaction, if the virus was really the issue.
March 27: non-essential businesses closed (hard to do much business under 24-hour curfew)
April 3: Governor Ivey Issues Stay-At-Home Order Effective April 4, 2020
April 4: the City of Tuscaloosa is deferring to Ivey's Stay at Home Order
April 4-17: cases in the county rise from ... low to not as low. No fatalities yet.
April 17: Mayor Maddox has issued an executive order re-adopting the Alabama Department of Public Health’s “Stay at Home” order until April 30.
April 22: first COVID19 death in the county (? - first I found) - 60-year-old nurse Jerry Alford, likely exposed in the line of work at DCH Regional Medical Center in Northport.
April 28/29: Mayor Walt Maddox has issued an Executive Order adopting the Reopen Tuscaloosa Phased Plan
4-28: executive order allowing all retail stores to open at 50% capacity and elective medical produces to proceed
May 8, 2020 - Effective on Monday, May 11 the City of Tuscaloosa will abide by the State Health Officer’s amended “Safer at Home” Order as issued today (Friday, May 8).
May 11: the City of Tuscaloosa will abide by the State Health Officer’s amended “Safer at Home” Order
May 11: Safer at Home Order amended to Include Restaurants, Fitness Centers, Salons and Barbershops (to open at 50% capacity)
May 21: Safer at Home Order Amended to include Entertainment Venues, Athletic Team Activities, Educational Institutions, Child Care Facilities, and Camps Effective May 22, 2020 at 5:00 pm.
May 25: 12 dead
May 31: "Coronavirus cases in Tuscaloosa County surged over the past two weeks, more than doubling to 699 as of Friday afternoon, as Tuscaloosa joined a handful of Alabama counties witnessing rapid rise in the second half of May. The state-run Mary Stark Harper Geriatric Psychiatry Center in Tuscaloosa also reports that 17 patients and 11 staff have tested positive. Two patients have died ... There is also an outbreak at the jail." https://www.al.com/news/2020/05/tuscaloosa-sees-surge-as-coronavirus-outbreaks-hit-nursing-home-jail-psych-ward.html
June 4: 3 deaths just at harper hosp. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/3-covid-19-deaths-at-mental-health-hospital/ar-BB152Msn
June 5, 2020 – Effective Friday, June 2, face coverings that fully cover the nose and mouth are required for employees and public visitors in all City-owned and -operated facilities.
Around June 5-10: start span of known "Coronavirus parties" - Fire chief Smith "said the partying was happening in the city of Tuscaloosa and the surrounding county for the past few weeks at several locations," at least that they heard about.
https://www.wbrc.com/2020/07/01/officials-covid-positive-young-people-party-instead-quarantining-tuscaloosa/
June 14: Tuscaloosa: 1,291 confirmed cases; 25 deaths
June 22: Joe Hinton, 78-year-old diabetic AF veteran, "thought COVID-19 was a hoax and didn't believe in wearing masks," ignored family pleas to do so, but tested positive 6-17, cancelled Father's Day meeting w/family, then died at home 5 days later.
https://abc3340.com/news/coronavirus/tuscaloosa-man-dies-of-covid-19-family-says-he-refused-to-wear-mask
6-23: Tuscaloosa +4 to 35 dead
June 30, 2020 - Tuscaloosa City Council unanimously votes to adopt an ordinance requiring face coverings to be worn while interacting in public places in the City of Tuscaloosa.
7-1: 2,049 cases and 38 deaths
https://www.si.com/college/alabama/bamacentral/this-week-with-the-crimson-tide-coronaviurs-tuscaloosa-alabama-hot-spots
Consider if a policy comes into effect on day X, and then causes or prevents a fatal infection on day Y, that is or would become evident on day Z when they die, usually a few days to about 2 weeks after day Y. So consider that lag in assessing policies and their variable effects on death rates.
On June 30, Mayor Maddox extended the "Safer at Home" order through July 31 at 5:00 pm. More 50% commerce, with masks, and a reminder it's safer yet at home. BORING! Plus maybe a big lie by Maddox, Ivey, all these doctors and others in the NWO? By the reports, corona parties had already been happening for a couple of weeks.
See also: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/doctor-who-survived-covid-19-bewildered-by-public-disregard/ar-BB16Urfq?ocid=msedgntp (a sad report from Birmingham)
Spokane County, Washington - where I live - makes for an interesting contrast (one I had just mapped out, anyway). The population a bit more than twice that of Tuscaloosa county, here rounded to 515 thousand or 0.515 million. We're clear across Washington state from the U.S, initial epicenter in the Seattle area (King County); we're probably the second most populous county - way above anything else east of the Cascades, anyway. And Spokane city, where I live, with the connected Spokane Valley (I keep forgetting that's a separate city) and suburbs, has moderate urban center growth potential. We did get some early start on cases and deaths bleeding over in those first days, but never did get hit very hard. In fact we benefitted from a relatively moderate start (enough to make people notice) followed quickly with Governor Jay Inslee's proactive lockdown and control policy.
We're not the smartest populace, but have managed to basically hold the statewide trend towards decreasing infections and deaths. We got used to single-digit new cases and were alarmed at the rise after entering phase 2 relaxed lockdown just in time for Labor Day weekend. June 29-30 combined had 157, then a record 98 cases on July 5, matched July 15 and close to matched twice in between. We're at ~85 cases a day on average. That's not far above Tuscaloosa with 70+, from less than half the population.
I haven't heard anything about any Covid parties here (not that I would). Anyone in Spokane who's heard about one - please let the police know whatever details you do.
The city recently had to strengthen its face mask ordinance; you have to wear it in public, or anyway before you enter a public indoor place - any business, a city bus, or the bus plaza. These places now again include bars and restaurants. I'm still leery of lingering, but businesses need support and I was hungry enough the other night I got a classic Satellite Burger at the Satellite Lounge - in styrofoam to go. It was harder to communicate orders with everyone wearing a mask, but it works. It wasn't quite as noisy as usual. Some tables and all bar seating remain closed, but other tables are full of happy people dining and talking in small groups (they get to take the masks off at the table, of course, but probably not when they go to the restroom). I think most people here get the issue and why this is worth it. For most of them it's because they're sheep, but that happens to work right in this crisis.
Total now: cases way up from 802 cases on June 14, now 1942 July 10, and checking back late, on the 18th, it's 2443. 37 dead June 14, 40 by July 10, and 43 by the 17th. Not bad for half a million people, but those increased cases carry some deaths still pending, and the next thousands of cases have maybe dozens more in store.
https://srhd.org/covid19cases
43 dead so far / 0.515 million = death rate of 83.5/m - well below state average, far below national average. Six deaths in the most recent span is a turn for the worse over the previous four spans. That's only natural as activity has been increasing for some time. It'll get worse. Comparing the two counties visually on the same scale of deaths per one million ... Tuscaloosa had a much later start on cases and deaths, so less room to claim surprise. Then a slow start is followed by some some bad weeks there in late June and early July, and sits at about 3.3 times Spokane County's death rate. I suspect this pattern does reflect on these reported parties and the increased infections they caused, as seen against the low background noise of the virus being pretty under control before.
Here are some useful stats from Ecuador during the quarantine. Most regions, where the virus was not widespread, had below average mortality. http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/File:Excess_Mortality_Ecuador.png
ReplyDeleteHey, fortuitous! I wondered about Ecuador some, and that's at ACLOS? Shit yeah, that's a resource (for the project at another post). I could average the lower ones (middle ones would likely tainted), for up to April ... better than what I got. Might inspire me to dig up the fuller stats. Thx.
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