People are still debating if there's any serious danger from COVID19 to justify the widespread "lockdown" anti-mobility measures taken by a majority of the world's governments. They see a death toll not so high, imagine that's got nothing to do with the lower levels of human contact (direct and indirect). That's exactly how diseases have spread in the past, but they think this one is different - it either doesn't spread much, or spreads just as well through walls as it does through close air or skin contact.
At least, these are the sort of implications underlying the conclusions of morons pushing to end the tyranny of lockdown. Here I'll share again some infographics I've been working on - possibly final updates to make my case so I can move on to other things. They're all a bit big to read on-page, sorry. But they can be popped-out in a new tab, etc.
United Kingdom
Coronavirus lockdown opponents in the UK especially are inspired by some arbitrary and heavy-handed enforcement of distancing rules, and at least one alarmist prediction of half a million dead which they found laughably off. This has left them plenty of choice, but still they formed and firmly hold a mistaken idea the virus presents no real danger; it's a myth invented to facilitate their enslavement. They've been zealous in defense of the economy, privacy, liberty, and the mental health of cooped-up people, calling the cure worse than the disease, which they say is comparable to any annual flu.
As they all-but predict the end Western Civilization (maybe Eastern + middle too?), they've been less interested in the details of the danger that's mobilized their government and nearly every other on Earth to impose these unprecedented measures. Several of these sudden armchair experts have been quite certain the virus would get unusually "exhausted" in its tangle with the Brits, the death toll would be minor, the peak had already passed, etc. Over here, I thoroughly illustrate how a favorite claim that WHO data supports those view is based on an optical illusion and a lot of deceptive branding. Others have reached similar conclusions based mainly on wanting there to be no danger. They seem not to notice they're proven more wrong every day that the UK lodges another couple thousand cases and loses on average 800 lives, as I gather just in NHS hospitals (or perhaps that refers to the even-lower tallies I see in some places - admittedly hazy on that). A sizeable number also die in prisons, at home, in care homes, and wherever else. The official death toll now stands at just over 20,000, but (if it is so exclusive) the real toll might be 50% above that or even higher. Just the 20k puts the UK at the moment at #5 worst rate of deaths per population (behind Belgium, Spain, Italy, and France. They come out just ahead of the Netherlands, then Sweden - the other two initially joining the UK in a "herd immunity" approach)
Sweden
The lockdown critics often cite shining examples of less intrusive methods, first and foremost being Sweden. Their strategy based on "herd immunity," a policy initially taken but quickly abandoned by the UK and Netherlands. But this is not as uncontrolled as some think, and seems to be less effective than those same people think. A range of anti-mobility options were suggested and largely employed by a fairly astute populace, keeping the spread under control with a sort of voluntary, partial lockdown that may not work so well in other countries. Even in Sweden, it's allowed 18,177 confirmed cases so far, and 2,192 deaths, so Sweden ranks 7th worst in the world for deaths - doing just better than the Netherlands and UK (#6 and #5).
Belarus
Some have pointed to the former Soviet Republic of Belarus as an even better example of non-interference, where the government suggests normal routine, vodka, and visits to the sauna (besides quiet containment measures) would suffice. A slow start in a less-populous county let that seem feasible in Belarus, but they're currently just above 10,000 confirmed cases, likely with low confirmation so true rates are more like 20,000 or higher. In a populace of just 9.45 million, that's at least 0.11% or infected, and it's rising fast - what was 600 confirmed cases/day is more like 800 in recent days. President Lukashenko has publicly named and rejected the same kind of NWO conspiracy theories held by so many lockdown opponents. These love to suggest people don't die from COVID19, but from other things - in large numbers, shortly after contracting it. They might embrace President Lukashenko's Stalinist decree that in Belarus, no one will die from COVID19, but instead from those other things. So far 72 deaths are reported by WHO as linked to the illness, but he would dispute that. It's hard to say how many patriots have died quietly at home, with vodka in hand but nothing confirmed. I also noted a delay in reportage for 2 days, shortly after that announcement - Belarus may have stopped reporting to/cooperating with the WHO, but if so they got back on, but still may avoid learning and reporting the true number of cases and deaths.
Brazil
Less people cite the example of Jair Bolsonaro, the "Trump of the Tropics" as he leads the 210 million people of Brazil though this "little flu" that might get worse come flu season there. He too senses a conspiracy and rejects it, trying to override local lockdown orders, even firing his health minister - managed to get TWO false-negative tests to confuse a first and fourth test showing he DID have the virus and should have avoided spreading it around Brazil, in Miami, etc. As Bolsonaro understands Brazil's economy, it's like that Fukushima reactor: it "can't stop." They're digging mass graves now.
Turkey
Turkey ... on average perhaps similar to Sweden, but with more heavy-handedness that's sporadic and based on an even more muddled relationship with real-world science. All-in-all control measures here are moderate in scale and effectiveness, but that's little help with Turkey's dense and mobile population. By 7 April they had the world's fastest climb of new cases - more than 3,000 per day. By later April they has racked up more than China or Iran despite the head start both had. Now at 108,000 they have more cases than any nation outside Europe and the US. As for "we're all in this together" - Erdogan finally gave up his plans to forcibly inject "millions" of partly-infected refugees into Europe via Greece. But then Tukey is also accused of stealing ventilators headed for hard-hit Spain. They deny that, and checking into it now (Reddit) ... seems a deal was made with a Turkish company that makes the machines, payment was made, but it ignored a standing export ban which authorities enforced, blocking the transfer. Then under pressure, they agreed to send the machines rather than return the money, as if to say "we're all in this together and we don't want any more PR that's that bad." Okay, that also makes sense.
Top Ten Worts Death Tolls Considered
from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
Belgium: I haven't looked into this much, but heard they had an early care homes epidemic that skewed death toll unusually high. They should also have a bad general spread that would be wosre if not for the control measures they've taken.
Spain: not sure how it got so bad there and why - they're in "lockdown" - it's bad - cause-and-effect?
Italy: more so than Spain or anywhere but China, it hit Italy by surprise, before anyone could take measures, and has been hard to rein in after that. The initial phase would be extra-deadly, leaving a high toll others would only catch up to later (as happened - see above entries, and the ones below are still getting there)
United Kingdom: initial response was "herd immunity" - let it spread, because it's hard to contain. The rapid spread and number of hospital cases piled up quickly and they changed course, found it hard to rein in. Even under lockdown it spreads in a slowed, incomplete herd-immunity, at a speed that's difficult but manageable.
Netherlands: same basic story as UK - herd immunity policy swiftly abandoned, but the early start gave the virus a wider spread that's harder to slow. And however exactly it happens, they get a high death toll proportionally almost the same as the UK's.
Sweden: same as UK, NL but for keeping the faith with herd immunity, probably because it kept seeming manageable - lower initial cases and slower spread, because the people went into half-lockdown mode with less compulsion required (a smart herd - probably smarter than most). Being low to start with, lockdown-type measures are on the increase now in Sweden as they try to slow the spread - others who already did are now looking at decreasing measures. Sweden has put itself 'behind the curve' in that sense.
Switzerland, Ireland, not sure.
US: sizable country, not the brightest, didn't take it seriously, and we have New York. Other details, but that's good enough for me.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Comments welcome. Stay civil and on or near-topic. If you're at all stumped about how to comment, please see this post.