Who Attacked the Children's and Maternity Hospital in Mariupol?

<< Russia Conquers Flattened Cities: Cause and Effect

< Who is Really Flattening Mariupol?

March 16, 2022 

(rough, incomplete)

Intro...

One of the most distressing scenes of the war so far was a children's and maternity hospital in Mariupol attacked on March 7. It's been written about extensively and used by both sides, each using images of women affected by the attack. Supporters of the Ukrainian government use the incident, to show Putin's cruelty, testified by the an injured and very pregnant woman carried by on a stretcher, almost as if for show. Other images are used by others to repeat and amplify the Kremlin's call of "fake news," when another pregnant woman appeared at the site they insist had been turned into a militant base, they showed her to be a local model, and so a presumed actress, who portrayed both women seen, unfairly tarnishing their apparent airstrike here. 

I won't show either of those women here but instead the massive crater the bomb caused, and the damage it caused at the hospital buildings way off in the distance. That alone is kind of interesting (see below: forensic analysis).

Here, we dispense with that lazy route of accepting claims from Rusian OR Ukrainian officials as clear fact ... starting with refuting the Russian denials - never afraid to find out the Russians were right, they've also been wrong - lied, or made bad guesses - and this event winds up mattering (the event has a Wikipedia page is widely-read at the moment)- it's worth far more careful thought and analysis than it's gotten from either side - one side laughs it off as fake, the other just emotes over the horror of it and at the shameless denials, blaming Russia for both, and asks no questions. 

The clumsy and tasteless denials from the Russian camp certainly add to that impression, and in fact the evidence seems totally consistent with a criminal Russian strike. But several points also argue against that and show that WHO did this and why is an important and un-asked QUESTION. As to why anyone but Russian forces might even possibly do it ... see Who is Really Flattening Mariupol? and consider how well this worked to the propaganda advantage of Kiev, with the forces in Mariupol surrounded and doomed, and their pleadings for a "no fly zone" to save the innocents from deeply terroristic crimes just like this. 

To fill-in: some basics ...

MH loc 47°05'47.8"N 37°31'60.0"E

The attacks is generally blamed on a Russian airstrike, apparently with a single, unidentified but powerful bomb.

Russian Allegations in review - starting out behind on what said what and when, I'll base this partly on a detailed summary and refutation by Ilya Ber, Project "Verified" via Meduza, originally in Russian - I found it a fair analysis at every point, whatever their core bias. https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/12/neuzheli-ukraina-deystvitelno-sfalsifitsirovala-reportazh-ob-obstrele-roddoma-v-mariupole-spoyler-net

In fact, up front I'd really like to underscore this point: "So far, we do not know exactly who and from where carried out the shelling of the maternity ward of hospital No. 3 in Mariupol." 

Fake Victims: One Woman in Makeup?

Ilya Ber:

A fragment of the broadcast of the TV channel "Russia-24" was published on the website "Vesti.ru" under the headline "The Ukrainian model was suspected of shooting a fake about the maternity hospital in Mariupol." "Users of social networks suspected Ukrainian beauty blogger Marianna Podgurskaya of participating in the filming of staged photos against the background of an allegedly destroyed maternity hospital in Mariupol," the material says.

"Rossiyskaya Gazeta" published an article "Another fake of the West: a woman shot in a Mariupol maternity hospital turned out to be a photo model in makeup."

Komsomolskaya Pravda told its readers about "another fake from Ukrainian propaganda: all the photos from the destroyed maternity hospital have the same girl in different clothes, and all the pictures were taken by the same photographer." 

She was shown holding regular cosmetics and called a "social media influencer" to underline how she must have used different makeup and publicity to "influence" the public's perception about a Russian attack on Neo-Nazi militants. The basic narrative was repeated widely, and often mindlessly.

In fact there were several photographers who recorded these two women and perhaps others (to check - I think I see at least one more) and many other people young and old you wouldn't expect - may be serving others as well, for some reason, or just sheltering them - both pregnant women seem to have been upstairs where things got bad but most people said to be sheltering in the basement. Some of these seem injured as well. 

Marianna's injuries seem totally legit, seen later after washup and healing, but still in the same spots, 2 days later (+/- some hours) = probably enough time for such healing, when the injuries seem pretty superficial to start with (and does pregnancy enhance healing abilities? seems like it might). She's seen 2 days later with her newborn girl - pretty lucky in all regards.  

The second woman said to be her clearly isn't her, and reportedly had much worse luck. She had a different, leaner face with wider, fuller eyebrows, a lower hairline, different clothing, and different injuries/makeup. Realizing this second woman died, after feeling her baby die inside her, seeing the dying horror in her eyes in the available photos ... I won't show you the different eyebrows above them - nor any pictures of either woman, while I'm at it. If you don't believe me, go check. Here, I did already tweet a comparison image. And if you still don't agree, oh well. 

Is the other woman dead, or was her "character" just "retired"? She was seen with some rather advanced makeup or, I think, real and severe abdominal injuries - the skin of her lower bully looks bruised and wrong. Only when we see the other side, as she's put in the ambulance, can we glimpse how bad it is, and where those bits of blood and tissue came from, like her right hip was halfway torn off the rest of her. As reported: broken pelvis, dislocated hip. The baby being stillborn was no surprise to me - the woman's death is less expected, but credibly reported and plausible enough. As of the latest AP report out of Mariupol, medics never got her name in all the chaos.

Militant Base of Azov Battalion?

...there's no clear sign of a militant basing - current or recent - in the available footage, although it hasn't been ruled out. The worst-hit west building is most likely, and we can see inside a lot of it, but whatever clues were there were blown in far enough we can only see some desks, shelves, a chair, etc. The East building is pretty well unseen, possible. But in the north building, the clinic seems genuine and operational. 

Ilya Ber's article traces the full Azov-and-actors argument, as widely spread, back to "the anonymous telegram channel "Signal" (now it has more than 493 thousand subscribers, it supports the Russian "special operation"). :

"On March 8, an interview with one of the employees of the maternity hospital was released. She reported that Azov kicked out all the staff and patients from there and occupied the building. On March 5, it was recorded that Azov militants were firing from the territory of the same maternity hospital.

"Igor said that in the last days of February, people in uniform came to the maternity hospital where his mother works. He does not know whether they were fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine [of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] or the nationalist battalion "Azov" (banned in the Russian Federation). The military knocked down all the locks, dispersed the staff of the maternity hospital, and set up firing points in the building in order to, as they explained to the doctors, prepare the "fortress of Mariupol" for defense. "

Ber asks a good question is the stricken hospital is this even the same one the Russians referred to and gave reasons for striking. On the face of it, they do NOT refer to the same place. In a March 7 UN meeting, Russia's Vasily Nebenzia said: "Having expelled all the staff of the maternity hospital No. 1 of the city of Mariupol, the Armed Forces of Ukraine equipped a firing position in it." A few days later, explaining what had happened in Mariupol, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (referring to Nebenzya) said that "this maternity hospital has long been seized by the Azov battalion and other radicals."

https://russiaun.ru/ru/news/070322n - https://tass.ru/politika/14022235

As Ber noted, the hospital that was struck is referred to, in a video narration, as "3rd hospital of Mariupol, maternity hospital." Not one to trust video narrators, I check - Google Maps has at the geolocated site a Primary Health Care Center №3 along with Children's outpatient clinic at Myru Ave, 80. Attached is to the southwest is Children Policlinic / Mariupol 3 Children's Hospital, the building that took the worst hit in the attack (Osypenka St, 70). Obstetrician-gynecologist (Osypenka St, 72 - the mostly undamaged east building), and the moderately-damaged building with pregnant women and others in the basement was the north one, here just labeled "building." (Osypenka St, 68), with nothing about what happens there. Logically, it's the maternity ward it seems, and it's attached to hospital 3. 

Oddity: The main damage was to the west building, Children's hospital. But we've seen and heard of perhaps no casualties there. Was it shut down? Vacant after a recent occupancy? Perhaps by Azov?

But they were said to be at hospital no. 1, which is well to the north, per Google Maps labels - here mapped compared to number 3. 

(Meduza links to a mapped list of maternity hospitals in Mariupol - it comes up blank for me - anyone else?) 

Somewhere I read that Azov chose the hospital as a base for its central location in Maiupol. That could apply to either location, in a city where the middle is an uninhabited river floodplain linked over by a few bridges. But no. 3 is just central to the west part of the city, and this details fits better with No. 1, especially considering that division plus northern suburbs in a context of a Russian advance likely to come on all fronts, as it did.

Considering all this, it's possible Nebenzia meant hospital no. 3 but said no. 1, and Lavrov got it right following the strike. But it's at least as likely he and all else referred to a different location. 

If no. 3 was meant: Azov may have been there, but most likely in the possibly vacant children's hospital, not the maternity ward. It's still not clear Russia bombed it, but it is a reasonable inference.

If no. 1 was meant, then no explanation has been offered why no. 3 should be hit - it could be they hit no. 3 for another reason, or didn't hit it at all - Azov did it themselves, in Russia's name - it could be Russians meant to hit Azov at no. 1 but went by name and mixed up their hospitals because they don't know and don't care - or that Azov wants us to believe that, made this "mistake" themselves to add some insult to injury. 

Forensic Analysis

There's some more image analysis to do and some to re-do, maybe in another post, as the scene is not clear to me at the moment. I'm still not a forensics/ballistics expert, but I have a natural knack for it and a good track record. One way you keep that is adapting yourself to the evidence, not the other way around, admitting when you were wrong, and changing course when required, or stepping back when it's not clear. 

In my initial Twitter thread, I looked at the building damage, which seemed to result from an angled impact near the west building (Children's hospital no. 3), from a reasonably clear pattern of damage and fragmentation marks, it seemed a shallow incoming angle (possible airdrop, or missile at short range) - even with the crater not placed, that damage suggested a munition trajectory of ~280°, or fired from ~100° ESE - meaning the jet that dropped the bomb was flying that way (perhaps), or it was a missile launched that way. That pointed to an industrial area held by Ukraine forces, some turf just taken by Russia or contested, a bit of coastal waters, and the air.

But that pattern too wide to see fully, and there is a huge crater, which I finally correlated in the scene very far from where it "should" be to fit that scenario. It's many meters to the south - if these line up, it seems strange - traj = 325-330° or fired from ~145-150° - but the damage would be hard to correlate - maybe impossible. That pointed to a smallspan of Mariupol city held by Ukraine forces, a bit of coastal waters, and the air. Noting air deliver almost surely means Russian blame, while a naval attack is less clear; Azov had some kind of naval forces. 

The details as I was seeing them, to be checked again more carefully, seem to favor a close impact for the building damage and/or argue against the far crater connecting. These points include:

- symmetrical area of worst damage the Children's hospital building, very far from the crater, and closely-spaced fragmentation marks on either side of that and across the north building - this should be from a close blast - from the far crater, they would angle probably above all these buildings, or at least spread out wider and hit higher than seen. 

- lack of frag marks on the south end of the children's hospital building may argue against the south crater connecting (if I have it place right)

- ground-level frag marks and basement-level damage to west building unlikely from a blast so far away - forward force would angle up from the soil at impact or a bit below (not from the bottom of the crater). but at this distance, the angle would surely add up to more than the few inches we see. 

All this remains a better fit with a ground impact here or, seeing no crater for that, a tree impact, as Michael Kobs first suggested. One nearby was left unusually damage, just a splintered trunk with an unusual degree of scorching I notice now - not likely from a fireball at that far crater, nor any hot, hurled object that smashed the tree apart and also wrapped itself around and singed the bark like this - in this case, a warhead detonated with there, with a detonation fireball and blast wave forward, fragments hurled in all directions - some blast force would actually angle down, better explaining the basement-level damage. Quickly for now:

I just achieved 98% certainty on this point before even doing the review, but I'll do some anyway and improve on my first graphics. If these points mean what I think, it means two bomb or missiles were used here; one strike made the crate and little to marks on the buildings, while a second strike is what caused the building damage and most or all of the injuries and fatalities. In that case, one of the two has a suggested trajectory noted above (~280°), and the other impact should be from the same direction. The huge forward trajectory suggested from the south crater would be no more, and the clues would support a shallow impact from fairly short range. 

Etc. (to reorganize)

"Aviation worked on the maternity hospital. That's the Russians." Heard on the radio, as seen in a video. Now if you were Azov and had just launched a missile or two there, why would you go out and say the Russians did it? Oh ... 

Who is Really Flattening Mariupol?

<< Russia Conquers Flattened Cities: Cause and Effect

March 14 

(rough, incomplete - last updates 3/20)

Intro to ... Putin Killing His Own People in Mariupol?

The Ukrainian port city of Mariupol is under siege, encircled by Russin forces, and it's being destroyed by bombs and missiles. The mayor’s office reported at first 1,100 then 1,582, now 2,187 civilians confirmed killed in Mariupol - officials had been saying as many as 20,000 had actually been killed - scenes show wrapped bodies laid in a trench-like mass grave - some were still beneath rubble, struggling in the hospital, gravely wounded, and we get a sense this will only get worse. Below from dramatic new drone footage as new random explosions are still occurring, in what we can hope is an apocalyptic finale https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1503325318110756868  

- overall damage, by satellite -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVO0_WH9xC8 - locals may be filming, but not so many of their views getting out via mainstream or Kiev-linked sources after March 8 

This destruction has been escalating as a Russian victory looks imminent and a surrounded Ukrainian force led by Azov Battalion grows more and more desperate. But as the overall aggressor, this is all blamed on Russian forces without a second thought, even though the people of Mariupol are largely Russian-speaking people with a historical affinity for Russia and the Donbas separatists, and who largely feel occupied by Ukrainian forces.

Following the coup-like events of 2014, locals elected on May 10 to separate from Ukraine and join the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic. That was only changed with a Ukrainian military offensive in June, after a brutal failed attempt on May 9 had tried to head off that vote. (Wikipedia: Battle of Mariupol (2014) - 2014 Donbas status referendums). This violence and the subsequent occupation Mariupol was spearheaded by the infamous anti-Russian Neo-Nazi Azov battalion; were in fact created with Mariupol and its surroundings (the gate to the Azov Sea) specifically in mind. 

Russia's supposed motive now - in case that needed explaining - President Zelinski laid it out: “They are bombing [Mariupol] 24 hours a day ... launching missiles,” They kill children. They destroy maternity hospitals. They destroy hospitals, why? So Ukraine has no more children.” “This is happening in all of our country," he added, but especially in Mariupol, for some reason that needs no explaining. "They have destroyed dozens of hospitals, hundreds of schools and day cares, they are destroying universities, they are destroying residential quarters,” Zelenskyy said. “Imagine how we can survive, what it means for us Ukrainians and our families, for our children. What it means when you cannot even find the peace in church because Russians are bombing even the churches.” (a mosque was reportedly hit in Mariupol (Mother Jones) - reports were false (Anadolu) - but quite likely it has been really hit since then)

We've been told Putin hates Ukrainians and wants them all dead, but what he's doing to Mariupol means Putin and all his men here are so insane they'd kill "their own" - people who would largely welcome a Russian occupation over what they had been living through, if it could happen peacefully. But they get their lives and wills crushed anyway, for no reason that needs explained. A Channel 4 report notes the issue: https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1501939052425056258

It's almost as if Putin does things like this just to allow Michael McFaul and Rachel Maddow, for example, to say Putin is worse than Hitler (as noted by Aaron Mate). Hitler mainly killed other types, ethno/linguistically speaking, whereas Putin mindlessly "slaughters the very people he said he has come to liberate."

Maddow Blog deleted this, conceding Hitler killed "millions of Germans" and she needn't go Whoopi Goldberg and get into their "race" or anything. So Putin is only ...  whatever, comparable to Hitler in some new way that was just proven, somehow ... because of what was happening in Mariupol. 

So let's have a look at that, but FIRST some more context most will have no idea about.

A 2015 Precedent?

It reminds me of a briefly-infamous episode on January 24, 2015. Donetsk People's Republic forces drew near the northeastern Vostochniy district (alt Vastochniy - I wrongly used Vostichny before), vowing to re-liberate Mariupol from Kiev's occupiers any day, and starting in Vostochniy. Allegedly, their next step was to fire some 100+ grad rockets, scattered across the whole district - except the north edge where a Ukrainian checkpoint was - into homes and public markets, all in less than a minute. The attack killed at least 30 and injured over 100, likely including the separatists' own family members, allies and sympathizers. Many were reportedly locally based, coming back home with friends to liberate, not massacre, the rest. See ACLOS Analysis and Mariupol Attack is a War Crime: The Evidence points to Kiev  George Eliasson., Strategic Culture, January 29, 2015

The militia near Mariupol is comprised of local city residents. Like soldiers in Donetsk and Lugansk, the city is their home town. Its where there family and friends live. Its where they grew up, went to school, and work. Their own children go to school there. Is there a benefit to firing rockets at your own neighbors and family?

HRW etc. blamed separatists and assumed accident, based on rockets coming from the east where DPR was generally based. Kiev's forces could also operate there if they really wanted to, were sneaky, and did it briefly, for like the 30-60 seconds this attack required. But it doesn't seem anyone really considered that.

As late as 2018 Bellingcat "independently confirmed" SBU audio recordings that proved DPR forces were to blame, and added that high-level Russians helped them attack their own home base on this special day, or in their efforts to hit this army checkpoint north of town (yellow). They attacked at once from multiple positions, - not just east and NE but also southeast and apparently even south, which other sources deny. And from all angles these crews missed the checkpoint 100x over, by at least 500 meters and up to ~2.5 km? 

Perhaps, like Korotkov, Bellingcat et al. realize the Azov-SBU allegations require deliberate terrorism by their enemies, directed against their own people, for no reason that needs explaining. I never did review the Bellingcat/SBU/Azov "findings" to see if the (scriptwriters?) admit to the terrorist motive, or leave it at simple, sub-human ineptitude. Neither makes real-world sense. Ukrainian state-sponsored terrorism is still the most logical explanation for this incident, if not the most comforting one, and Bellingcat would only be helping them clumsily whitewash it with yet another layer of absurd anti-Russia propaganda.

Voice of America, March 4, 2015: relates some of the dark side about Mariupol, "a divided city," where people spy for the Russians, or get accused of it, get beaten and carried away to never return. The rocket massacre is mentioned: 

Perhaps nowhere is Mariupol’s atmosphere of mistrust more evident than in the suburb of Vastochniy. When a rocket attack in January killed 30 people here, Human Rights Watch investigators said it was highly likely that the rebels were to blame.

But in spite of the evidence, many continue to believe that the government was responsible, though they are too afraid to say so openly.

“The shelling of Vastochniy district, the shelling in Donetsk, when they hit the trolley bus, the shelling in Volnovaha when they hit the bus, 75 percent of the people here are sure that this was a provocation by the Ukrainian government,” said a man using the name Pasha.

Externally, the attack worked to Kiev's and the Azov Battalion's advantage, showing their enemies to be "terrorists" who mindlessly kill their own - as Euromaidan press explained, insects infested with a certain hair-worm larva will become self-destructive just like this so, bizarre as it seems, they cheer for their own killers. The infested insects see it differently, but they would, wouldn't they?

That "hair worms" point was included a bit askew in this rough blog post from 2015: Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Mariupol Market Massacre, part 4: Whose Terrorism? From that:

The Azov Battalion's reconnaissance unit commander, Serhiy Korotkov, and his armed men were sent into Vostochniy on January 24 and made a videotaped tour. A short edit of this was posted by anti-Kiev activist (now private - screen grab at right) as Korotkov “explaining why Mariupol was shelled.” I think he does explain it. 

While the fires burn behind him, he explains (translated) "anybody can check for oneself that this is not an accidental hit. There is no Ukrainian military here, and never have been. In this area, as graffiti on some walls shows, some fans of the Russian World live. Those who want the Russian World - see, here you got it." Earlier in the video he reported from Kievskaya street; "what's noteworthy is that over here we have "Left Sector" (opponents of Kiev-allied fascist group Right Sector). The Communiaki (derogatory term for Communists) received what they wanted." As he explains this, he alternates between smiling with amusement, and trying somewhat not to. It's hard to remember he's blaming someone else for this development. But try to remember that, and that his story makes no sense. 

Another Azov fighter, to a Ukrainian journalist in another video (now deleted, screen grab at right) following the day's rocket attack: "outta my face. Outta my face, bitch." Not translated. Would this apparent American mercenary assist in shelling "his own" Ukrainian city full of Russian-speaking "Communiaki"? He just might.

Back to the present...

Residents Trapped 

The ICRC handbook on the rules of law (PDF) says: 

4.3.1.3 Removal of civilians: Civilians must, to the maximum extent feasible, be removed from places where the risk of attack is greatest, i.e. the vicinity of military objectives.  

Yet most residents remain trapped in the city, and both sides blame each other. Various re-published reports and claims: 

March 5: "Residents of #Mariupol gathered to evacuate, but the #Militants of "#Azov" do not let them leave." 300 were allowed to leave on busses, then 3/6: "A second attempt to evacuate civilians from the besieged port city of Mariupol, in southern Ukraine, has collapsed as both Ukrainians and Russians blame each other for violating a previously agreed ceasefire. ... A source from the Azov Battalion" told Al-Jazeera that Russian forces had started shelling as efforts to get people on buses in Mariupol began. Al Jazeera was not able to independently verify the claim."

3/6 "Azov deputy commander in a video statement today, saying there is no evacuation and telling Mariupol residents to stay in place. New day, same bullshit. Only about 300 people managed to leave on buses before Azov shut it down." Not clear which 300 - first in line? children? Azov Battalion's friends? 3/6 #UKRAINE: Yesterday, Russia had initiated the organization of a humanitarian corridor for the residents of Mariupol.  Upon arrival at the place, the Azov Regiment (on video) said that there would be no evacuation. The woman's reaction is expected." Ukrainian soldiers explaining people can't leave, and should consider themselves lucky not to get shot (by "the Russians" of course). https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1500351736677998595

March 8, Ukrainian official report the Russian military was bombing the humanitarian corridor to Zaporizhzhia, again breaking the ceasefire and endangering people who had been told to stay put. 

March 9 "The DPR army published a video with the story of local residents about how the Azov militants do not allow them to evacuate from Mariupol – they build barricades from cars on humanitarian roads, mortars are also in the courtyards of sleeping areas, from where they are shelling" https://twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1501513136918122497

3/11 "DPR servicemen evacuate residents of Mariupol under fire from neo-nazi battalion Azov militants." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_vjx_dMUno Some locals speak well of their rescuers, time spent walking, waiting, avoiding the Ukrainian military. A car is seen with some bullet marks where they grazed the hood. Signs taped on the back windows say "children."

Elsewhere I've seen other locals rescued by DPR fighters, explaining most won't be allowed to leave but will wish they could - Azov needs them as human shields and/or propaganda fodder. After all, Russia can't be blamed for slaughtering innocents if someone evacuates those people ahead of the fighting. 

March 13: amid this worsening destruction by Russia, "About 400,000 residents are stuck in the city, as Russia continues to block evacuation."  https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1503033608633737218

March 14 is the video at top - a truly apocalyptic scene engineered all at once, almost as if for that footage of Russia's epically illogical war crimes. All together, we're to believe the Russians aren't just killing their own for no good reason, but trying to kill as many as possible, blocking the exits before blasting the hell out of every place that might contain innocents, especially children, as always making the best case possible for another "No Fly Zone."

2022: A War Waged On AND From Homes, Schools, Hospitals 

this time in 2022, the basic formula might be the same as in 2015, but the stakes are higher, the weapons are heavier, and the Ukrainian military targets are often  not on the edge of town but AT the civilian spots that get bombed, as Russians from Russia are now killing their own brainwashed people, again for no reason that needs explained. 

countless reports and several videos of forces based in kindergartens, schools, hospitals, and homes - March 9 video, Odessa https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1501663027791282177 - photos making the rounds https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1500369471965478916 - noted above: https://twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1501513136918122497 - more details perhaps forthcoming...

At right is a photograph of an army unit with a tank parked illegally, in Mariupol, which was "used by @israel_mid_ru to support their claim the Azov battalion was operating at the Mariupol maternity hospital" (since deleted, it seems). If they claimed that was the hospital and not just a precedent for such basing, that was shown wrong; Bellingcat noted the scene was "geolocated by @digitaljonah to 47.101092, 37.671539, over 10km away from the actual hospital site." 

The work appears sound. Per latest labels on Google Maps, they're based at  ЦДЮТ "Солнечный" - a "gym" - seemingly part of a "Center for Children and Youth Creativity" system, "Solnechny" branch, where young girls used to learn ballet dancing, per a photo. It's at the eastern edge of the city, an area since taken by Russian forces. If those had ever fired on a unit based here, even in defense, the center would be damaged. And we'd hear it's because Putin hates children and Russians just do as they're told.  

ICRC handbook on the rules of law (PDF) says 

4.3.1.2 Location of military objectives outside densely populated areas: Military objectives must, to the maximum extent feasible, be located outside densely populated areas. 

5.4.6.2 Cultural property: general restrictions on attacks: Special care must be taken in military operations to avoid damage to buildings dedicated to religion, art, science, education or charitable purposes and historic monuments, unless they are military objectives. 

Noting to be fair: Russian forces have also been seen sheltering in civilian areas and buildings, and getting attacked next to them, causing damage. If the buildings are vacant and not too near peoples' homes, this may barely count as a war crime, for either side. But since someone didn't let people flee and the city remains pretty full, such vacant spots will be hard to find. And also, any basing at a populated civilian target provides little to no legitimate excuse for attacking that site with heavy weapons. For either side. 

Tanks and Snipers

AP video shows tank and sniper fire in besieged Mariupol

By MSTYSLAV CHERNOV, Associated Press, March 12, 2022

Heart-wrenching video of a woman describing how one of her children just died when their building collapsed from a mortar shell in the inhabited war-zone of Mariupol. It's not made clear who might have launched that shell and why, but it reads as presumed Russian.

And Russians were filmed attacking homes in the city ... video of tank backing up into a bus maybe meant as a barricade, behind which sits another tank - it fires a shell - cut to assumed target (probably of a different shot) - a corner balcony of an apartment block with an excellent view (great sniper perch) is destroyed in a blazing impact. "An Associated Press journalist witnessed tanks firing on a 9-story apartment block ...The video he shot shows shells exploding as they hit the apartment block, already severely damaged, setting balconies on fire. It wasn’t possible to tell whether the Russian positions had first received fire from the targeted locations." ...but it seemed possible enough to mention, maybe considering the Russians HAD just taken fire from somewhere? The wording suggests as much. 

Another shot is filmed hitting more into the middle of the building, but also in an upper floor with a good view, and starting a big fire inside ...  report adds: "a building that was hit by tank fire during the day still burned later in the night. No one was around to extinguish the flames." Hopefully everyone who lives there is evacuated or hiding in shelters, and it's just homes that are lost in such incidents, but people are trapped in and near all this, and it gets worse besides murkier. 2,000+ dead already is plausible.

"It wasn’t possible to tell whether the Russian positions had first received fire from the targeted locations" from presumably Ukrainian forces maybe based there. Azov-type snipers might have been shooting at Russians from civilian homes and inviting return fire against the same. Seems that's well-illustrated in Borodyanka at least. 

It's also suggested Russian troops already fanned out inside the Mariupol, and took up positions as snipers in spots including one with in the same area this AP crew was - "At another point, a medical worker was hit in the hip by sniper fire. She survived, but conditions in the hospital were deteriorating." (electricity in the city has been reported as both off and on but being rationed)

It's not specified whose sniper shot the medic, except it's clearly Russian. It's easy now to see how all these Russian troops were ordered to hate medics and the media, besides children, just like the deranged Putin does. So they try their best to kill any they see, and to do it on camera when possible, so everyone can see the truth even as Russian words deny it, and the world will be, like, terrorized, not just provoked. 

And these guys who could refuse the stupid orders, pretend they didn't have a clear line of fire, etc. - they keep pulling the trigger, firing the missiles, in total desperation as they're about to take over this whole bloody mess. What is wrong with those Russians? Are they, like, subhuman or something? To believe Ukrainian officials, they must be.

Recall tank may have been taking out a sniper. As far as we know, it was the same one that shot at the medical-media crew, and that very firing is what prompted the Russian attack. Same area and time to be witnessed raises that to likely enough - how many snipers from how many sides would be shooting there and then?  ...either way,  the report adds of that tank: "Ukrainian fighters later destroyed it, notching up one small victory." The reader cheers.

Incident Analysis

Who Attacked the Children's and Maternity Hospital in Mariupol?

Dated summary to revise - see post and sub-posts collected there for evolving work.

One location alleged by Russian forces on March 9, is a Maternity hospital. My initial analysis on damage pattern needs review after seeing more images (including this one at right) - some Russian claims don't pan out (just one actress: false - the other pregnant woman of just 2 seen by them is someone else, who reportedly died later from her injuries.) - Russia had just alleged that Azov militant had closed the hospital and taken it over as a base - illegal but precedented - that's denied, but quite possibly true when it was publicized, but maybe not for long after that - no clear sign after the strike one way or another - 

It's not clear yet, to me, what happened - possibly a Russian attack that illegally targeted an illegal base of the Azov battalion at great risk to people including children and pregnant women - Russian officials re-raising this point and calling civilian casualties "fake" suggests they did attack, or could have attacked, this site. They also deny conducting any airstrikes, and that they're not sure what happened, sowing some confusion.

and we can't rule out Azov moved when their location was revealed, for tactical reasons and/or because the hospital people asked them to leave - they might have moved to a new and secret base like in orphanage, and then fire back on their old position with a huge missile to emulate a Russian bombing (the Russians had just set themselves up for it by publicly naming the target - IF they did - see post for ambiguity explained). 

Whether this is the story or not, the image makes a good metaphor for the big picture as I fear it to be; if they can't be based in your city, the Azov Battalion has no use for it, except as material to use against Russia by destroying it in their name. As someone once put it with a smile "Those who want the Russian World - see, here you got it."

Drama Theater and Art School Shelter Bombings, 3/16 and 3/19/2022 

Up to 1,300 and then about 400 people, mostly women and children, are (as of 3/20) feared trapped or killed by Russian bombing of two large shelters in central Mariupol - an unprecedented but well-timed war crime, the March 16 bombing defied clear markings of children present, and it might have been a planned provocation, as local sources seemingly reported 4 days in advance - as of March 20, there are reports of 130-200 survivors and zero deaths confirmed between the two incidents, but that could change.

More Hell for Russian-Occupied Mariupol

Some geolocated shelling of interest.

more, conclusion forthcoming

Attacks on Apartment Blocks and a Russian Supply Column in Borodyanka

<< Russia Conquers Flattened Cities: Cause and Effect

Attacks on Apartment Blocks and a Russian Supply Column in Borodyanka 

March 11, 2022 (a  bit rough)

Introduction 

Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, tweeted, on March 3: "Each time when Russian liars say they don’t drop bombs on Ukrainian cities, show this photo of a residential apartment building in Borodyanka, Kyiv region. Russians bombed the town for two days, killing many civilians. Stop barbaric Russia now. Close Ukrainian sky. Act now!" There's a photo of a building blown up, along with a claim the Russians did it, beside much else (but nothing that made such a dramatic single image), and soon after agreement reached that the Russians now occupied Borodyanka. That should suffice to convince most people what happened and why.

The whole middle of a ten-story apartment building ... what is that, 140 apartments? 200? .. just all blown out the skeletal far wall or mainly collapsed on this side of it. If it had been fully occupied, the casualties could be in the hundreds killed and many hundreds wounded. The famous view above includes the rear parking lot, with only two cars visible, possibly ones that didn't run. Maybe the rest were used to take people somewhere safer, and there may be no others beneath that pile. This is encouraging. These and other scenes show some pedestrians on the street, and it's hard to say how many others are hiding about, but the city feels largely evacuated. 

Attack site video: Maksim Levin, Reuters, drone footage - widely used by other sources and viewed now many millions of times, mainly just to add random specificity to kneejerk impulses to blame Russia for the worst possible version of whatever actually happened here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VI1G-UD95yw 

Again, the town is Borodyanka (Ukr: Бородянка), about 20km northwest of Kiev. I geolocated the one building easily, on the main street Vulytsya Lenina, middle west edge of the city, across from the monument to poet Taras Shevchenko, and near the highway to Kiev. On Google Maps, it's labeled "Vulytsya Lenina, 353" - coordinates: 50.6435566, 29.9345456 (Google maps). It included a hostel, maybe ground floor businesses, but probably many regular apartments as well. At right, matched features, rough mapping: red star is attack site - the the Zdvyzh river seen in footage is just lightly marked here SE of town, canalized into the fields. There's Kiev and its suburbs to the southeast.  

Only later did I finally correlate the footage as showing two building of the same style that are so massively damaged, with the middle building in a block of three fairly unharmed. Compared to Google street/photo globe view of how they looked before. VL 353 is left here. The south one on the right (unlabeled) had a more complete collapse of its middle section. What is that, 300? 400 apartments turned to rubble?

What question can I even have here? Why would the Ukrainians bomb their own city? It seems absurd. After all, the Russians are the ones invading with heavy weapons, taking over cities, making them theirs. And everyone knows Russians would totally bomb their own cities, because unlike the noble and civilized Ukrainians, they are cartoon villains. Right? I'm not trying to defend the overall invasion and war Russia has initiated here, but to remind that they are not cartoons, and may have reasons for what they do, and might not do all they're accused of.

As I will explain below, as of these 2 days of "Russian bombing," Borodyanka was not the "Ukrainian city" you'd think, and had in fact been Russian-held for a week. And is anyone confused why Kiev's forces might attack a Russian army supply convoy? One was seen destroyed in the same city, just a few blocks up Vulytsya Lenina from these two buildings, in an attack that also damaged and burned nearby civilian buildings (but not these 2). The violence was not all that one-sided. 

In fact the available visual evidence suggests that supply convoy attack was launched from civilian buildings very near VL353, leading a Russian tank to fire back, before the tank crew was apparently killed or captured, amid a span where that Russian occupation was clearly challenged, anyway. Such violence may have been escalated to the flattening of these buildings soon after, without any cartoonish villainy needed, and Russian control was upped to a new, undeniable level soon after that.  

But even this is worth questioning. So far there's no real basis to presume what happened without some clear evidence, some of which can be obtained from the visual record. For the most part, the camera still doesn't lie.

Russian Control: Before March 7

An official situation map of Kyiv Oblast (region/province) issued March 7, and no earlier ones that I've seen, acknowledges this and all cities in all districts northwest of the capitol as Russian-occupied or now, as at Irpin, under attack and likely to join. Cropped version here with added labels. For the preceding week as those apartment blocks were destroyed and as so much else was wrecked, the situation has been kept less clear; Borodyanka was described in Ukrainian statements and news reports as both "Ukrainian" or "our city" and also as held, at least somewhat, by "the Russian occupiers." 

Most sources agree on a general Russian control over Borodyanka since day 4 of the conflict, February 27. The well-informed Institute for the Study of War seems to have the city under Russian control from Feb. 27 (map). The surrounding area of control shifts a bit over the next days, but this town seems to stay in the red constantly to and past March 3 (map). See a crop of both layered below, correlated by me with other maps - it's accurate, except maybe "attack from SE" - see below). By the 3rd, when this happened, ISW shows Russian forces held turf up to about 10km to the southeast, or halfway to Kiev (Kyiv) city limits. (there will be better maps for this)

A geolocated video, 2/27 shows Russian forces in Borodyanka - not checked, but likely so - said to be 50.639864,29.918696  https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1497899149697638401 2/28 soldiers getting out of some tanks somewhere in the city https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZuX7mlg1Hc

So right away Russians could at times operate freely with no resistance and no massive bombing of the city required. Of course, local resistance could grow, non-local resistance could be brought in, etc. Some reported Russian attack on 2/28 affected civilian areas, but the worst damage shown is some splintered wood -  maybe after the Russians hit a nearby location of some sniper fire, for example. https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497581970825560065 

As Kuleba said and as generally reported, the apartment attack came after "Russians bombed the town for two days" - March 1-3 - long after they had established this general control. Images and videos of the 1st and 2nd show various often heavy damage to buildings that are on fire, and at least one other collapsed apartment block. I have yet to see any much footage of these buildings until the 3rd, after the attack. I'm not sure when that happened, but not long before that drone footage, in which fires are still burning - perhaps late on the 2nd, overnight, or early on the 3rd. And after such a finale, it seemed possible the fighting was done, the Russians presumably left in charge.

One video from Radio Svoboda has a moment of on-the-ground footage of the damaged buildings from a distance, apparently later, after they stopped smoldering as heavily. Otherwise, it's almost totally aerial footage and photos from a drone or two. There are no on-site rescue videos I've seen, and we do not have detailed reports on the casualties, at least that I've found, coming out of Kiev-linked sources. (nor Russian-linked ones). 

The Russian Supply Convoy

The Russians are not the only ones launching attacks here; we can be fairly sure they did not launch the attack that wrecked their own military supply convoy here in this Ukrainian city, a few blocks northeast of the gutted apartment blocks. The V marking like Russia often uses is seen on at least three unburnt trucks at the rear of the line. False-flag optioanls always being possible, it seems these are "destroyed Russian military vehicles in Ukraine," as Reuters photographer Maksim Levin thought - and probably destroyed by Kiev-linked forces. Photos 1 and 16 in this set show this scene: "Destroyed Russian military vehicles are seen on a street in the settlement of Borodyanka, in the Kyiv region, Ukraine, March 3. REUTERS/Maksim Levin." These are all drone photos as well, perhaps obtained, not taken by him at all - all post-attack on 3/3, including views of the smoldering buildings.

In the convoy: a seemingly unscathed tank furthest ahead, now abandoned, seeming ransacked, and a smaller, likely civilian truck, badly charred - ten military trucks including a fuel tanker are clustered mainly a little to the north, in front of what Google Earth says is a post office (blue roof). Two craters seen in the pavement ahead of each cluster of vehicles including a fuel tanker and a truck full of replacement wheels, and one truck alone in between seems to have taken a direct hit, probably from a mortar. There should be a 4th impact at the main trucks cluster by the post office, which is as burned as these trucks some ways from that orange circle. but I somehow didn't notice it yet.

This presumably Ukrainian attack is close to the building attack, but I think too far away to directly relate to it -  most of the trucks north of this block stopped while headed south (others would try reversing if able). So they didn't drive some ways after they were damaged there - these were almost certainly two distinct incidents. In fact some footage relating to the convoy attack (see below) was posted on February 28, California time - likely March 1 in Ukraine. (upload times may be worth checking next).

This was clearly a supply column headed south when one of the lead vehicles was hit. Ideally, supply lines run through areas you have some control over and/or where you enjoy local support, or at least limited organized hostility. Otherwise is to invite ambush - which might be what hit them, one way or another, and whenever.  The damage sustained seems light; tearing a few cab roofs halfway off, starting a lot of fire - maybe it was a drone like this, but armed.

New footage of Borodyanka emerged March 7 with a Komsomolskaya Pravda video. This comes from Russian media, maybe you aren't allowed to hear this. If so, look away. Reporter Alexaner Kots, seemingly "embedded" with the Russian military, is seen walking the same area, passing the post office, then heavy fragmentation marks on the wall and ramp next to the north crater - the street is now totally cleared with none of the old wreckage visible, allowing traffic that's almost entirely military at the moment - no signs or sounds of new conflict. 

The Battles of Last Week: Russia's Side of the Story...

...per Alexaner Kots, anyway, in his reports of March 7 or so. Citing the video above plus: 

https://www.kp.ru/daily/27373/4555356/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbNPnxwceTo

He explains this city Borodyanka was "not so long ago taken under the control of the Russian army." He sees around "skeletons of armored vehicles and trucks. Whose they are - Ukrainian or Russian - can no longer be understood, but there was definitely no cake walk here. Sometimes there are crumpled civilian cars." There were only a "frightened few remaining residents." - Kots and locals he speaks to refers a lot to WWII (the Great Partrioctic War) and the perceived Nazi identity of the new government in Kiev. Of course they claim to be happy they've been liberated from that control, albeit tempered with the pain of this process and worry about what the future holds. 

As Kots heard from his sources (local and/or military) the initial Russian occupation here was interrupted in the following way:

"At first, the population was [plagued] by armed looters, who in Kiev were given assault rifles with ammunition. Then units of the National Guard and nationalists came here, arranging a firing point from almost every residential building. And when the Russian troops pushed them back to the south, the Armed Forces of Ukraine covered Borodyanka with artillery, sparing neither barrel artillery shells nor Grad MLRS rocket munitions.

Now the village differs little from any front-line village near Donetsk or Lugansk. 

As the Russian public knows, frontline villages get shelled all the time, suffer wounded and dead, power outages, and more on a regular basis. Ukraine usually denies responsibility, accusing the Russians or the separatists themselves (e.g. Mariupol, Jan. 2015). Kots says "unlike the Donetsk residents, who by ear determine the caliber and direction of the "surprise" that has arrived, the locals do not yet understand either the types of weapons or amateur ballistics." 

It's suggested that now Borodyanka has slipped from Kiev's grasp, it might be seen the same way. In such a case, they might sow some destruction on their way out as a sort of target denial, to spoil Russia's prize, leave them with a huge mess to clean up, and of course to pin the blame for it all on them. This scene at VL353 especially is sold as proving the occupiers had to flatten the city to impose their brutal will on a resistant people, in line with the Kiev-NATO narrative. 

claims of government-armed looters and Ukrainian shelling will be widely dismissed out-of-hand with laughs - on the former, it was alleged the Russians did the looting, we could say people are people and either way, and it's not immediately relevant. Implicating the hated nationalists is both realistic and also conceals any authentic local resistance they faced (it was probably a mix). 

But why would the Ukrainians - even the "Nazi" ones - shell their own city? Why have they done that so many times before to others of "their cities" in the east? You got your few friends out and it's enemy territory now? That plus this time everything's being scaled-up to Russian / WWIV size? 

Kots also mentions the Russian military's own actions, in less detail ("pushed them back to the south"). It's not clear if the attack on the apartment blocks would be included in the Ukrainian shelling, or if that might be some of their own destruction preceding it. For example, maybe insurgents had attacked their forces several times from there and finally a massive airstrike was called in to take out all the attackers, along with the middle half of two large buildings. 

The Convoy Attack, on Video?

Some scenes from this peaceful city during the first days of Russian occupation might give us an idea what makes sense; A morning video taken from a furnished civilian home across from the Shevchenko monument, probably from middle building next to VL 353 - tank firing near the square, unclear what at but it's down the street to the southwest, as other tanks drive by https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XpLs-CMh_VE - in another video said to be in Borodyanka but not geolocated, a man in a vacant building with a possibly military radio drops a smoke grenade into an armored vehicle passing below before the video cuts off. https://youtu.be/WwsDEy9UOMU

combining these, maybe such insurgent attacks occurred at VL 353, making it the target of defensive fire? To hit the convoy we've seen, for example ... it's pretty close but at an oblique angle from most windows - none face north up the street  - corner balconies might offer a good view, but those are vulnerable and other buildings might provide a safer base for such.  

Another widely-seen video seems to play in directly here by showing that attack itself, at least partly launched from a different building: "The occupiers do not stop shelling: a powerful explosion in Borodyanka" (translated). Posted March 1, filmed then or earlier https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVgp4yrUIJw - specific upload times on all these videos might be a good next step.

On a sunny day around noon, a lone man films as a tank fires at his position - a completely vacant room with this great line of sight on Russian military vehicles up the street (the same Vulytsya Lenina we've been looking at - see correlation below). I'm not sure just where this is, except that it's a block or more west of VL 353, in fact seeing that whole set of 3 apartment blocks obliquely on the right (pink box). They're not fully visible, but don't seem blown-up yet. 

The tank shell rips across a low nearby roof before hitting a wall just below the cameraman's position, shattering glass at his window. He barely flinches, as if battle-hardened; he just leans out of the way and silently re-assesses his views, trying another window. Someone, sometime, scrawled a peace sign on the wall between these windows. 

Possibly related: there is a lot of thick, black smoke filling the space behind the tank, maybe around the Post Office (blue box), and perhaps over the same span as they burned supply convoy we'd see ~48 hours later, including as it did a fuel tanker and a truck full of tires. It seems that attack has just happened. The tank seen here may be the same one seen later, after falling back just a bit. In between this video and the end was another probable mortar hit in the pavement about where the tank was, destroying that smaller truck (orange dots for the impacts noted above). 

This suggests the cameraman was involved in that attack, launched from his position just moments earlier. No sign of weapons or other people appear in this short view, and while I can't prove this relates to the attack, it's only logical. Why would a tank guarding a supply column that was just destroyed fire a certain direction unless that's where the attack came from? 

As Kots related the story from the Russian side, "units of the National Guard and nationalists came here, arranging a firing point from almost every residential building." Russian lies to justify their senseless brutality?  

Then, some locals and/or fighters had unfettered access to the attack site over what seems a full day or longer. Some videos following a light snow, one shows related fires still burning, one shows a dead Russian soldier, while most do not - someone else has been there, going through materiel, probably seizing some weapons, likely taking some prisoners. 

More scenes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmNVsfPAeDo - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5wFJ9RB0I8 - March 1, dead soldier, face shown (Asiatic features), no visible injuries  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnCXz60K70g

These videos got to Kiev-linked sources - the Russians with the broken supply line aren't fully in control here at this time. They're nowhere to be seen.  

short clips compiled: snowy scene, body invisible, and below: twilight, AM or PM, trucks done burning, but post office still ablaze, almost surely due to this attack  - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiuCyPP_UMQ - Feb 28, Youtube time - alt:  https://www.youtube.com/shorts/jRVYHFMpU98 - https://www.youtube.com/shorts/BC5JNTRoTIc

Ukrainian news channel TSN ran some of this footage to illustrate the story "The bodies of people are being pulled out from under the rubble in the town of Borodyanka, Kyiv region." Other scenes of devastation and rubble in the city are shown, but just one body: the Russian soldier. TSN explains: "On the eve of the Russian occupation" - the unchallenged one, not the one already in place but plagued with violence for a week. Just today, "a missile strike destroyed two high-rise buildings there." As noted below, actually, IF these were missiles, it appears they were huge and came from the southeast. "Data on the number of victims are still being clarified. But locals say the scale of the destruction is much greater. According to them, the occupiers" - of that town, not just parts of Ukraine in general - "have carried out three air strikes since yesterday" on a base of their own operations, for no good reason?

Conclusion: So What Happened at Vulytsya Lenina 353?

Considering the precedent we just established, some damage to Borodyanka will have resulted from the insurgent attacks launched from these civilian buildings and the expected defensive fire that brings. It's likely that's what took out a north corner balcony at Vulytsya Lenina 353 prior to the big attack (red) - and another one two floors above it (orange) ... and the top balcony corner suffered lighter damage as well (gold). This was at least glimpsed in a video following the convoy attack but before the apartment block attack; someone filmed same damage at VL 353 - the same badly-damaged balconies with a good view up the street. Note the relatively flimsy balconies would have to be used as there are no windows in the north-facing wall. Orange label: damage pre-existed, but the new blast, probably, shook the unanchored wall even looser.

So who flatted these hundreds of hopefully empty apartments? Logically, it could be Russian forces tired of clearing these building one balcony at a time. The scale would be questionable, probably criminal, perhaps illogical or totally fictitious ... but it makes basic sense. But considering the same issues, how it was no longer "their city," and how well the imagery worked for Kiev's narrative, it makes at least some sense to suspect their hand here.

Some discussion helps me realize it's not clear what happened here: Initially I took it as some kind of missile strike, but the massive size of blast is more suggestive of a heavy aerial bomb, likely of the 500-pound size. but some missiles, especially FAE "vacuum" ones could probably do this. I noticed at 353 the far side facing towards the river is more heavily damaged, and there's a slight asymmetry to the damage ... adding to this, the south block more fully destroyed, but a bit wider on the same SE-facing side, at least along one edge. Some remaining bits of wall at the front and back add to the impression of an overall angle of greatest force.   the bombs may have both just landed SE of center, blowing out the Kiev side worse, or perhaps these clues do suggest a more ballistic arrival.

Noting that both suggested angles are very similar, I used the overhead view of 353, angled properly on the map, and extended that line, slightly improved, in red - then I traced approximate frontline (not exact or authoritative), for a basic idea where these "missiles" (as the TSN report put it) might have come from. almost exactly as I had eyeballed it the first time. If it was a pair of projectiles that did this, for what it's worth, they impacted from the southeast, about 130 degrees on the compass, from one side or another of the front line at the time, some 10 km out.

Some more expert military analysis could settle this better than all my barely-informed guessing - but all considered, I really can't say who did this with what weaponry. The simplest answer is Russian forces bombed them to stop insurgent attacks based there. But the scale is questionable, and works to Kiev's propaganda advantage to show the Russians ruling over total devastation. And, harsh as it is, they might have other motives; whoever could decide on such false-flag attacks - with or without Kiev's express approval - might consider those former Ukrainian citizens to be expendable enough to risk killing and maiming them just to wreck Russia's prize, give them a huge, expensive mess to fix, and create new suffering with which to demonize them. 

Consider what happened in Okhtyrka just before and especially after Russia's decisive takeover on the 28th - they did that by destroying the army there, and then once it was a Russian city, they blew up its power station and a bunch more homes. According to Kiev's retreating forces, anyway.

Keep in mind that Ukraine's new post-Maidan regime is not an extremist Nazi one, as Putin's wartime propaganda shorthand puts it. I won't say that's a "lie," because it totally has that element, has in the past given it free reign, and might even now be helplessly subverted to it, despite the face Zelinski puts on it so far. And it's in hardcore frontline places like this where the Nationalist paramilitaries (like the famously neo-Nazi-identifying Azov Battalion) often come front-and-center. When I think "the Ukrainians" possibly doing something like blowing up Borodyanka just for effect, that's who I mean, and it seems plausible to me. 

And it also remains possible that the Russians bombed their own city, even to their own detriment (vis-a-vis public relations at least), with some criminally inadequate reason. But the way this was presented as the only option, the obvious reality, and proof positive of Russian malevolence only serves a propaganda narrative, not the cause of truth and justice.  

Russia Conquers Flattened Cities: Cause and Effect

Posted March 6, 2022, 

(rough, incomplete - last updated March 17)

Formerly "Is Russia is Hitting Civilian Targets in Ukraine?" (meaning by design and as alleged? and improved title reflecting the possibly important core idea)

---

At least one relatively level-headed mainstream analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, by Ishmael N. Daro at The Nation, urges caution about sources on both sides in the attendant information war. He emphasizes some of the swallowed fictions out of Kiev, like the 13 "Snake Island defenders" and "the Ghost of Kyiv." It's worth a read if you're unfamiliar, but optional otherwise. The provided examples are far from a complete list even then, and just how far from complete they are remains unknown. 

But Daro also says of Russia: "the biggest lie in this conflict has been Putin’s claim that he was not preparing an invasion." That was a big, attempted misdirection, but it has stiff competition, including some massive lies by omission on the other side about NATO expansion, Maidan snipers, and more. 

Daro also adds "Russian officials have also maintained—despite clear evidence to the contrary—that their military is not hitting civilian targets in Ukraine." That's explained with a link to an early CNN article (Feb. 25 - it wasn't as old when I started this project a few days back): "reports about apartment buildings and kindergartens being shelled, civilians being killed, and rockets being found in residential streets have been trickling in since the beginning of the offensive." And we've heard more and worse and clearer reports since then. It would seem undeniable to most Western war-watchers.

I'll use this CNN piece as a starting template here, expanded with at least some key examples of the much greater allegations since then. To say there's "evidence" is surely fair enough, but calling it "clear" is questionable, and as I've seen so far, none of it comes close to the proof it's widely taken as. I mean to look at each of the incidents highlighted by CNN plus a few others - brief review here, and more detailed sub-posts to explain at least some of them. 

Some alleged incidents of Russian criminality in the peaceful - and honest! - land of Ukraine: 

1) Kindergarten in Okhtyrka, orphanage in Vorzel

Clearly, these early events carry strong propaganda value - a kindergarten and an orphanage ... no military value, just to send a message ... in Okhtyrka, to be followed with generally wrecking the town, power and heat plant and the railway station - a message that works to Kiev's advantage informationally, and to Russia's disadvantage in all regards, as they soon - seemingly - took control of Okhtyrka shortly before it was wrecked. 

1A) Okhtyrka: Deadly Strike on a Kindergarten and Destruction of the Power Station 

Six civilians rep. killed, 2 children & 4 adults, cluster munitions used, rocket fired from NW, 5-20-35km, nominally Ukrainian government-held territory, but Russian advance forces were allegedly in the area - allegation somewhat dubious, needing more review ...

Reports now of pro-government forces using kindergartens and more as bases of operations. Likely does not relate to this case, but perhaps.

1B) CNN: "The orphanage was also mentioned by Lyudmila Denisova, the ombudsman of the Verkhovna Rada for Human Rights. "As a result of heavy armor shelling of an orphanage in the town of Vorzel in the Kyiv region, 51 children are currently at risk of life and health, 3 of whom have severe health problems and 15 infants. Two buildings of the institution were damaged," she said." 

I may look into that more: location: just outside Kiev to the northwest. 

2) Rockets in Bucha and Kharkiv

...f/c

3) Chuhuiv apartment building

quickly: seems a genuine rocket detonation, fired probably from the NW, where there were Russian forces, but could also be Ukrainian or allied forces. Accident seems possible, with a nearby airport the intended target. A few were killed, several injured, with only slight damage visible to the buildings - if it was meant as a false-flag allegation against Russia, it didn't make for a very powerful one. This scene was declared fake by someone, and it was widely repeated that these images came from a 2018 gas explosion. As I tweeted, that doesn't seem to be the case.  Bellingcat with just-now site vs. sattelite images

...more f/c

More entries past that, on a subject that has expanded much past this ... 

4) Mariupol! 

Who is really flattening Mariupol?

4a) Who Attacked the Children's and Maternity Hospital in Mariupol?

5) Kiev 

5a) apartment "attack" 2/26

Triangulating the Source of Kiev Apartment Missile "Attack" (updates pending)

Visual finding pretty well prove this damage, and probably more than the zero reported fatalities, was caused by Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile. Most likely this was a simple accident when it went off course due to some kind of engine failure. Summary and explanatory post both needs some work, but this isn't top priority; it seems most informed people realize what this was, and no longer emphasize it, instead citing the many newer examples of Russian criminality.

6) Kharkiv admin building

...f/c

7) Attacks on Apartment Blocks and a Russian Supply Column in Borodyanka

...